South Front was asking for Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash or Monero donations to stay in operation. I used my Crypto.com account to send them (South Front did say to use a “secondary wallet”, that is, not a wallet at an exchange) $20 dollars. In less than a month I was informed by Crypto.com that my account was terminated. The email said they had done a review of my account and saw a violation of the Terms and Conditions. I asked support for what I violated in the Terms and Conditions and they responded with a quote from the Terms and Conditions that said that they can terminate your account at any time for any reason. They were no doubt contacted by and acting on behalf of a government agency.

Posted by: Daniel | Oct 21 2023 3:59 utc | 303

Nobody heard about the breakthrough in the Kherson direction? Lots of talk about the Avdeevka encirclement, but only small mentions of the Ukrainians crossing the Dnieper. Will they expand their beachhead and make further gains while Russian forces are focused on another siege?

Posted by: DeathToAmerica | Oct 21 2023 4:25 utc | 305

‘Colonel General Viktor Afzalov has been appointed new commander-in-chief of Russia’s Aerospace Forces to succeed Army General Sergey Surovikin’ – TASS. Don’t say what is to become of General Apocalypse though… Last seen in North Africa actually…

Posted by: Gerry Bell | Oct 21 2023 4:41 utc | 307

It is shockingly sad that so many don’t understand that there is a market clearing price for newly issued debt.
A rough lesson awaits.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 20 2023 7:49 utc | 106
It’s shockingly sad that many don’t understand how sovereign currencies work. There is no market for ‘newly issued debt’ because the ‘market’ has been primed with the money to buy it by the prior government spending. That’s why the debt is being issued in the first place. It’s a float to fixed refinancing option.
The price of sovereign debt will always be the expected path of the base interest rate for that nation. If the nation drops the base interest rate to zero and says it will stay there then the ‘debt’ price will follow. As we see with Japan.

Posted by: The Accountant | Oct 21 2023 6:03 utc | 309

RE: Ukraine Weekly Update: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-f3b
118
Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 20 2023 15:43 utc | 127
Many thanks for that – good to be appreciated.

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 21 2023 7:14 utc | 311

Posted by: newbie | Oct 19 2023 16:52 utc | 13
Those numbers seem way too high.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 19 2023 16:56 utc | 15
Posted by: newbie | Oct 19 2023 17:16 utc | 16
Exchange ratios of 8 or 10 to one are fantasy.
Looking at the latest Mediazona numbers, they have been posting about 500 new Russian KIA a week over past month or so. The interesting thing is that I have been tracking the number of Russian KIA for January 2023. Right now the number for the 5 weeks that have days in January is 2893. When I last posted about this back on 9/18/2023, it was 2776. Back on 4/3/2023 it was 1604.
I wonder how many cemeteries there are in Russia and how many Mediazona gets updates from.
Posted by: ed5 | Oct 21 2023 1:36 utc | 149
First things first, mediazone just reports less than 35.000 KIA RF, my estimate is north of 50.000 as I mentioned.
See my post for source (the economist) and methodology.
As for AFU KIA. Ukraine, unkike RF, does NOT provide total deaths since the SMO started so I cannot use the same approach.
In fact they’re so tight lipped that I had to use two accidental slips.
One was a study by the kiev study of sociology where 66% knew close family friends KIA (median KIA 3) and nother 66% knew WIA (median 5) for a total of >80% with close acquaintances KIA or WIA. This could give 400.000-1.000.000 AFU KIA
Another was the news of 20.000-50.000 amputees, once again this could give 400.000-1.000.000 AFU KIA
Everybody talked about 100.000 AFU KIA, I guess I was the first to mention 400.000 to 1.000.000.
But either those two slips were psy-ops or the numbers for the AFU should be getting close to the half a million mark, and there we’re probably talking about ukraine reaching the point where germany and franc were at the end of WWI where 1/6 of the population was mobilized and 1/6 had been killed.

Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 8:59 utc | 313

Posted by: DeathToAmerica | Oct 21 2023 4:25 utc | 153
Any attempt to bridge the river, to allow heavier equipment across, will be blocked due to Russian air supremacy and artillery superiority and any attempt to reinforce the bridgehead, with enough troops to both expand and defend its perimeter, will create easily exploitable concentrations of personnel and supplies.
Without mechanised units able to break the Russian perimeter they are really just a fixing force, to prevent the Russians redeploying substantial reserves in the area, especially artillery and frontal aviation. Modern combat engineering technologies also mean a small bridgehead can be quickly sealed off using deliverable mine systems, if the Russians want to contain instead of crush the force. The longer it stays in place the shorter its lifespan, something the Russian commanders in WW2 understood all too well, hence their emphasis on rapid reinforcement with armour as soon as possible.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 9:03 utc | 315

Military summary updates:
-Seems RUAF has the AFU attempts to cross Dnieper under control – AFU can’t support their bridgehead from opposite shore, only using whatever they managed to ship across which is not a lot
-RUAF bombard bridgeheads unhindered
-AFU renewed attack attempts around Kopani, and Rabotyne and Novopokrovsk toward Novopokrovsk, using even a few Leopard tanks, one was visually destroyed
-AFU attack toward Verbove
-The slag seems to be changing hands often – obviously AFU has the western side supported from the coke plant
-Northern side of Krasnagorovka stationary – RUAF bombard the AFU along railway line to prevent them from building up there
-SW of Sieverne AFU launched counter attack, RUAF stepped back a bit to Vodiane
-The southern area of Avdeevka little changes

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 21 2023 9:33 utc | 317

Milites @ 158
Obviously the Pentagon and AFU understand this, which begs the question, what are they up too along the Dnieper? Agreed getting across and not quickly marching on to at least Tokmak before rain and winter seems like self immolation. Even then once at Tokmak UKR would need to instantly build very strong bunkers and defensive lines to hold out till summer. Pretty crazy. Only sense is that the counter offensive is long over, this is not a continuation, at this point all these moves along the front are to force Russia to dilute its effort on Avdiivka. Is that all there is to it?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2023 9:46 utc | 319

The slag seems to be changing hands often

How do you say Hamburger Hill in Russian?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2023 9:51 utc | 321

I note more than a few barflies talking optimistically of election cycles and changing regimes in the West.
Sadly I suspect this will more often than not just mean the normies who form the bulk of the electorate merely swinging back to another branch of the Uniparty.
In Britain this is totally baked in, and absolutely nothing will change.

Posted by: Truthsayer | Oct 21 2023 9:55 utc | 323

On mobilizations and general situation.

“I’m like a hotel porter. I accepted him and that’s it. I’m not a doctor”
The duty officer of the military enlistment office in Odessa refused to let go of a man who, according to the women who came for him, has a rotting leg.
He sent them to another military commissariat to clarify the circumstances, while clarifying that tomorrow the mobilized will go to the troops.
https://t.me/llordofwar/220679
———————————————–
◾A Ukrainian Armed Forces fighter spoke about the tightening of mobilization in Ukraine. Now sick and disabled people are sent to the front without fail, assigning them limited fitness.
◾If you don’t have an eye, an arm, or a leg, you’ll still end up as a stormtrooper; the equipment is worn out – they will be buried in it, but they will not give another. Even calls to the Ministry of Defense do not help to rectify the situation.
◾Follow:
t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/35756
———————————————–
🇷🇺⚔🇺🇦”After the defeat at the Battle of Bakhmut and the unsuccessful counteroffensive, it is unclear whether Ukraine can afford another defeat at Avdeevka.”
The Asia Times reports that in the event of a new defeat of NATO forces of Ukraine and loss of control of Ukraine over Avdeevka, against the background of a sharp decline in motivation and the number of new mobilizations, there may be a sharp collapse of the front. but it notes that the Russian army will have to put extra effort into this and lose a lot of men and equipment:
“Bakhmut was the first major defeat of the Ukrainian army. The failed Ukrainian counteroffensive counts as a second defeat. Whether Ukraine will be able to withstand a third defeat at Avdeevka is unknown – it may be able to fight for a while longer , but the price may be fatal.”
The publication was also surprised by the proximity and relative openness to attacks by the Ukrainian armed forces on Berdyansk airport and noted the higher efficiency of the TOS heavy flame thrower system near Avdeevka.
https://t.me/llordofwar/220327

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 21 2023 10:04 utc | 325

Defeat at Avdiivka will not “Doom” Ukraine – it will merely provides some respite to the Russians in Donetsk after a decade of shelling!

Posted by: Julian | Oct 21 2023 10:34 utc | 327

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Vladimir Rogov:
“The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost three tanks in one day near the village of Rabotino in the Zaporozhye region, another Ukrainian combat vehicle was damaged”

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 21 2023 10:47 utc | 329

How do you say Hamburger Hill in Russian?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2023 9:51 utc | 161

The proper noun in Russian is “Мясорубка”.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Oct 21 2023 11:20 utc | 331

@The Accountant | Oct 21 2023 6:03 utc | 155

As we see with Japan.

Not Japan again! Japan historically is a net exporter; the USA are not. The debt of Japan is invested in its valuable public infrastructures, so it is converted in an asset; the debt of the USA is converted in war efforts around the world, bribes and , so it went down the drain.

Posted by: SG | Oct 21 2023 11:31 utc | 333

@newbie: you have chosen an appropriate moniker.
On this site and many others, since the beginning of the SMO there have been attempts to estimate accurate numbers for casualties on both sides.
You are very late to this discussion and a bit of humility and respect for others would be helpful.
I’ll just mention Douglas McGregor, Larry Johnson, Richard Steven Hack (late of this parish), Simplicius, Big Serge (substack), and historian Peter Turchin, using the Osipov-Lanchester equations (developed during WW1 to estimate casualties from bombardment). All these have come up with 350K+ for Ukrainian permanent losses (killed and maimed) by various means.
Incidentally, you missed the 1.1 million Ukrainian sim cards that have permanently stopped transmitting: a startling fact which was noticed here quite a while ago: that equates to 900K people not using their phones (1.2 sim cards per Ukrainian). Many of us think that is also an indicator of a staggering number of casualties in the SMO.

Posted by: JulianJ | Oct 21 2023 11:37 utc | 335

what are they up too along the Dnieper?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2023 9:46 utc | 160
Entertainment for Bindens, Vicky, Borel and Ursula. Kayak Rambo movies for nato population. Maintaining positions for shooting in the cities. No great plan, simple destruction since the coup. And looking at the copy/paste propaganda and methods, must be the same people acting in Gaza these days.

Posted by: rk | Oct 21 2023 11:48 utc | 337

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 20 2023 21:04 utc | 145
“Racing the Enemy”, a brilliant book written by a Japanese scholar.
Keep up the good posts, George. 143 is excellent.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 20 2023 14:02 utc | 121. So simple, so true. Keep it up.

Posted by: Grant G | Oct 21 2023 11:52 utc | 339

Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 0:14 utc | 147
The basic thesis, in my understanding, was the fear of the US that Russia could conquer Japan and thereby control the economic/strategic sphere of the area.
Saving American lives? Bullshit.

Posted by: horseguards | Oct 21 2023 11:58 utc | 341

Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 0:14 utc | 147
American academia as in Daniel Pipes?

Posted by: horseguards | Oct 21 2023 12:00 utc | 343

Armchair warriors too need a break.

V Group had a music break…🇷🇺
https://twitter.com/Sinnaig_/status/1715459888791347256

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Oct 21 2023 12:33 utc | 345

@ unimperator | Oct 21 2023 10:04 utc | 163
The Asia Times must mean defeats of the American Colonial 2014 Regime’s forces _recently_, as against eg the Debaltseve encirclement in 2015, and even then they’re wrong, the unhinging of the American Imperial offensive-in-motion in February 2022 by the launching of the SMO was decisive.

Posted by: John Kennard | Oct 21 2023 12:35 utc | 347

Looks like pro Ukr tubers are raporting “horrific Russian losses” and followers are wondering “how long the Russians can sustain them”. They are just on the verge of a crushing victory”

Posted by: Catilina | Oct 21 2023 12:37 utc | 349

@136 Excellent analogy-The Star Trek episode was, “Let there be Your Last Battlefield” Season 3, episode 15
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let_That_Be_Your_Last_Battlefield

Posted by: canuck | Oct 21 2023 13:31 utc | 351

@158 Posted by: DeathToAmerica | Oct 21 2023 4:25 utc | 153
Any attempt to bridge the river, to allow heavier equipment across, will be blocked due to Russian air supremacy and artillery superiority and any attempt to reinforce the bridgehead, with enough troops to both expand and defend its perimeter, will create easily exploitable concentrations of personnel and supplies.
Without mechanised units able to break the Russian perimeter they are really just a fixing force, to prevent the Russians redeploying substantial reserves in the area, especially artillery and frontal aviation. Modern combat engineering technologies also mean a small bridgehead can be quickly sealed off using deliverable mine systems, if the Russians want to contain instead of crush the force. The longer it stays in place the shorter its lifespan, something the Russian commanders in WW2 understood all too well, hence their emphasis on rapid reinforcement with armour as soon as possible.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 9:03 utc | 158
Some of the Russian military doctrine is founded from learning from the Mongols when they conquered Russia in the 14th century. The Golden Horde was what they are called.
One of the doctrines passed on was that a military commander does not blow up or dissemble a bridge until 50% of the enemy has crossed over-this tactic provides greater kills for the defender.
That’s what I think the Russians are doing on this Dnieper Uke bridgehead-when enough of the enemy crosses over then Russia will then rtake cre of business

Posted by: canuck | Oct 21 2023 13:44 utc | 353

Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 8:59 utc | 157
It seems to me that you have a sound method but yeah, this is a hell of a task even in peacetime.

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 21 2023 14:10 utc | 355

@newbie: you have chosen an appropriate moniker.
On this site and many others, since the beginning of the SMO there have been attempts to estimate accurate numbers for casualties on both sides.
You are very late to this discussion and a bit of humility and respect for others would be helpful.
I’ll just mention Douglas McGregor, Larry Johnson, Richard Steven Hack (late of this parish), Simplicius, Big Serge (substack), and historian Peter Turchin, using the Osipov-Lanchester equations (developed during WW1 to estimate casualties from bombardment). All these have come up with 350K+ for Ukrainian permanent losses (killed and maimed) by various means.
Incidentally, you missed the 1.1 million Ukrainian sim cards that have permanently stopped transmitting: a startling fact which was noticed here quite a while ago: that equates to 900K people not using their phones (1.2 sim cards per Ukrainian). Many of us think that is also an indicator of a staggering number of casualties in the SMO.
Posted by: JulianJ | Oct 21 2023 11:37 utc | 168
Yes, yet you mention 350.000+ KIA+WIA , I’d be hard pressed to say that number just for KIA AFU
And the sim cards were what led me to go for the upper limit of 1 million KIA back in august when the two tangent informations ( study+amputees) came up
As for russian numbers it’s much more straightforward, crossed the economist excess mortality-covid+1200 (BTW don’t know if by july 2023 someone read that it was being used and stopped)
02/2022 03/2022 04/2022 05/2022 06/2022 07/2022 08/2022 09/2022 10/2022 11/2022 12/2022 01/2023 02/2023 03/2023 04/2023 05/2023 06/2023 07/2023
Excess 15000 6900 180 620 -450 -290 1580 4130 2200 1920 6070 2380 -800 2370 -930 2290 840 0
Covid 5000 3750 1650 710 450 290 420 672 650 420 380 300 250 80 0 0
NET 10000 3150 -1470 -90 -900 -580 1160 3458 1550 1500 5690 2080 -1050 2290 -930 2290 840 0
KIA (NET+1200) 11200 4350 -270 1110 300 620 2360 4658 2750 2700 6890 3280 150 3490 270 3490 2040 1200

Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 14:45 utc | 357

Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 8:59 utc | 157
It seems to me that you have a sound method but yeah, this is a hell of a task even in peacetime.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 21 2023 14:10 utc | 178
Thank you, I had used much of that on Covid real mortality before.
the numbers I posted above were fitted after seeing the study on excess mortality for sub-50 males and the one on inheritances (i know there is one negative month but I couldn’t adjust for an extra 270 monthly killed with the other numbers, BTW those inheritance numbers had a 3 month lag IMO)
feel free to check TheEconomist
As for ukraine I am not ashamed of having said more than a million at a time, it fitted the sims and the study
1.2 on amputees
Anyway two thinks are interesting on this, if those numbers were not a psy-op, they should be getting close to 500.000 KIA which is probably close to the levels before germany and france had enough of WWI.
BTW I’m also posting the link of info I saw elsewhere that also used to check the RF KIA and estimated as a free budget for 70.000-80.000 additional RF KIA for end of year 2023 (when they haven’t spent that for the entire SMO). Maybe Russia will push to break the AFU before they can get a new batch of recruits, they might be testing right now
budget

Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 15:11 utc | 359

A gas pipeline and a telecoms cable linking Sweden, Finland and Estonia have just blown up.
Sauce for the goose………

Posted by: anon | Oct 21 2023 15:41 utc | 361

@Posted by: zorge | Oct 20 2023 6:31 utc | 103
6 million Ukrainians fought in the Soviet Army, and a pathetic bunch of delusional losers fought with the Germans. At the end of the day a whole bunch of them ran away and got rescued by their Western buddies. The rest were obliterated by the Soviet Army.
The Banderists and the Zionists live in a delusional racist dream with a make believe history and a sense of idiotic supremacy. Putin was right, he is fighting fascism as are the Palestinians.

Posted by: Roger | Oct 21 2023 15:48 utc | 363

This won’t be the first or best example but it’s still interesting to see how much can survive to be analysed.
https://t.me/milinfolive/109080

One of the GMLRS missiles shot down in Donetsk got almost in perfect condition: not only the missile part with rudders survived, but also the control unit with all the electronics, as well as the partially combat unit, where the striking elements of the SAM had to hit.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 21 2023 16:03 utc | 365

@Posted by: catdog | Oct 20 2023 15:02 utc | 125

Sure. Of course it will not be a “successful insurgency”, and Russia will win a total victory. But it will be a conquest of a depopulated, wrecked country with the small remaining population mostly resentful.

Then Russia can simply pass a Homestead Act and invite people from around the world, after requisite security checks, to populate the new provinces of Russia. The in place Ukrainian population will be predominantly old men and women, physically/psychologically disabled middle-aged men, and single/widowed women. The former will be happy to get paid Russian pensions and then die off, the disabled will be stunned that they are taken care of by a humane state, and the latter can happily marry new male settlers; quite a few of which may be from the multiple passport holders of Israel.
@Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 0:14 utc | 147

Few works, to my knowledge, have supported his revisionist thesis, which is surprising given the anti-American sentiment found in the halls of academia.

Utter delusional nonsense, the academy is predominantly mainstream Democrat and the departments of Politics, International Relations etc. are some of the most thought-policed and Empire-conformist parts of that academy. If by “anti-American” you mean woke then yes, but the woke are full on with all of the Humanitarian Intervention, Feminist Foreign Policy BS that supports US Imperialism. Referencing “quite a few critics” with no names is a classic manipulation tactic.
Here is a 2013 article in the very US establishment journal Foreign Policy backing up the actual facts of the case. Nearly every Japanese city had already been fire-bombed into non-existence so another couple of medium sized ones gone was not going to change much. The Soviet Army on the verge of invading Japan proper, after destroying the Manchurian Army in a matter of weeks, was a very different thing. The bomb was meant as a warning to the Soviet Union, the US establishment had already decided on world domination in 1940.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/05/30/the-bomb-didnt-beat-japan-stalin-did/
The book “Tomorrow the World: The Birth of US Global Hegemony” by Stephen Wertheim covers the US strategizing about world domination after the fall of France. Wertheim discussing his book:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTLut8W_P68
Also, discussing NATOs actions triggering the Ukraine War on Democracy Now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWvJ-WmHbkg

Posted by: Roger | Oct 21 2023 16:16 utc | 367

@Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 8:59 utc | 157

Everybody talked about 100.000 AFU KIA, I guess I was the first to mention 400.000 to 1.000.000.

You pre-dated Richard Steven Hacks extensive posts on this subject? He has continued his work at his substack.
https://richardstevenhack.substack.com/p/another-ukrainian-interlude

Posted by: Roger | Oct 21 2023 16:30 utc | 369

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2023 9:46 utc | 160
I think you can play multiple choice on this one to see what might be happening.
1. The West are panicking and just activating units so as to be seen to be doing something. The riverine assault was probably meant to accompany a breakthrough to Tokmak by ‘The Offensive’, taking advantage of the chaos and confusion and forced redeployment of the forces around Kherson.
2. Senior NATO staff recognised Ukraine was a disaster in the making, being largely political animals, and delegated the planning and execution to their eager junior subordinates who devised lots of clever, clever plans to sell to their Ukrainian counterparts. A lot of the operations have the feel of being play tested in computer simulations by people who themselves wargame as a pastime, with the offensive an ad-hoc series of historical templates bolted together in the hope of a creating a coherent strategy.
3. The conflict is being used to squeeze as much operational experience from the Ukrainian orange, before the Russian bear squashes the fruit into a pulp. The training equivalent of use it, before you loose it. In essence what the Russians are, I think, partially doing with the conflict now.
4. It’s a vanilla attempt at fixing forces the Russians might want to move to support other operational fronts, especially fire support and frontal aviation assets.
5. It’s the blood price needed to be paid for continued Western support, and essential for their online army to be able to spin the narrative of imminent victory from whole cloth, to deceive the low information voters.
6. It’s a Russian trap that relies on Stirling Bridge like-timing to isolate and destroy some of the only effective units Ukraine still possess.
7. It reveals weaknesses on either, both, or one side, the reader’s inherent biases come into play for this one!
8. A combination of any or all of the above.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 16:30 utc | 371

Posted by: anon | Oct 21 2023 15:41 utc | 181
If that is true, taken together with the – also unconfirmed – attack on the US aircraft carrier with missiles and drone via the Red Sea (yes I know), it occurs to me that someone is trying a false flag against Western assets to trigger WW3. Western radicalism poking its head?

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 21 2023 16:43 utc | 373

You pre-dated Richard Steven Hacks extensive posts on this subject? He has continued his work at his substack.
https://richardstevenhack.substack.com/p/another-ukrainian-interlude
Posted by: Roger | Oct 21 2023 16:30 utc | 185
I could swear that we were both getting to the 400.000-500.000 Kia mark by different means and we even talked earlier than that on a thread here at MoA
I was comming from tangencial numbers, he was combing from daily Kia + non front line shelling

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2023 16:56 utc | 375

You pre-dated Richard Steven Hacks extensive posts on this subject? He has continued his work at his substack.
https://richardstevenhack.substack.com/p/another-ukrainian-interlude
Posted by: Roger | Oct 21 2023 16:30 utc | 185
And didn’t know his substack but we talked here at the time
Remember that late august early September Kia estimates were much lower
The phone sims was the only clue until end of June when I saw this and an estimate led to 1 million Kia (maybe I thought close acquaintances were less or the population bigger)
HREF=”https://news.yahoo.com/almost-80-ukrainians-close-relatives-114300303.html/”>Lend of June clue

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2023 17:13 utc | 377

@Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2023 17:13 utc | 189
Thanks for the background. His latest loss estimates have increased a lot, he posits that the lack of adequate training, experience and even arming of new Ukie troops that are being put into the front line are leading to higher and higher losses. Do you see this happening too?

Posted by: Roger | Oct 21 2023 17:26 utc | 379

Milites @ 186
1-5 hell of a way to fight a war, keep it away from me and glad I’m too old to be drafted.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2023 17:39 utc | 381

Mother Nature using her own weapons to stop us, she tries but it’s never any use, we were always profligate disrespectful children and mom now must come to terms that her kids are just plain serial killers. Did Jeffrey Dahmer’s mom love him to end?
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/101608

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2023 17:49 utc | 383

“In the Vremevsky area north of Priyutnoye, our attack groups managed to advance a few more hundred meters and drive the enemy out of the fortresses in the eastern forest belts. Moreover, they managed to do this immediately after the enemy reconnaissance group was routed in a gun battle. As the boys came under fire and retreated, the attack aircraft began pursuing them, literally flying into the support structure on their shoulders and clearing them out.
According to radio recordings, 3 (three) battalions of the 127th and 129th air defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have practically lost their combat capability. This is indirectly confirmed, on the one hand, by delays in the rotation of enemy units in the Grushevaya Gorge area, and on the other hand, by the arrival of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine training in the Shevchenko area. probably just to make up for the large losses in defense personnel.”

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1715678261978579306

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 21 2023 17:51 utc | 385

Milites @ 186

5. It’s the blood price needed to be paid for continued Western support, and essential for their online army to be able to spin the narrative of imminent victory from whole cloth, to deceive the low information voters.

Why Kyiv’s Dnipro east bank gain could be significant Ukrainian troops believe their advance across the Dnipro River could help them launch a larger offensive
Failed BIG counter-offensive down the memory hole, new one hot off the press. BBC may be false, but they’re staunch!

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2023 18:05 utc | 387

@Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2023 17:13 utc | 189
Thanks for the background. His latest loss estimates have increased a lot, he posits that the lack of adequate training, experience and even arming of new Ukie troops that are being put into the front line are leading to higher and higher losses. Do you see this happening too?
Posted by: Roger | Oct 21 2023 17:26 utc | 190
Thanks, will have to check his substack, as mentioned earlier for ukraine I only used point estimates from unimpeachable sources (meaning ukranian sources that escaped censorship for lack of thinking of the meaning that could be obtained) fguesrom there on I just have the ratio to RF losses to guesstimate.

Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 19:47 utc | 389

@Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2023 17:13 utc | 189
Thanks for the background. His latest loss estimates have increased a lot, he posits that the lack of adequate training, experience and even arming of new Ukie troops that are being put into the front line are leading to higher and higher losses. Do you see this happening too?
Posted by: Roger | Oct 21 2023 17:26 utc | 190
Yeps, already checked and he uses the institute of sociology of kiev that I have shown him
Hope he comes by again, don’t want to sign in to anything so won’t answer there, but if he drops by I would say
Hi steve, Newbie here
Hope you remember our talking about KIA/WIA and the institute of sociology, Glad to see you kept up your work.
There are some extra things you might consider. Even by your assumptions you’re close to 800.000 out of action (kia or irrecoverable wia), and if you remember the 20% of ukraine families without casualties the loyal and kievians are just there to put a gun to the back of conscript meat.
That means they had to put more than 1.5 million on the field, already lost almost a million and are down to half a million. You mention an attack by 500.000 RF and that’s close to what I think. I think 600 because you need that to sustain 2 months losing 40.000 a month to dry the last half a million before they can put another fresh group , so it has to be FAST, pay 70-80.000 RF kIA (and they have budget for that) and obliterate everything before february (probably before Xmas)
Anybody else apart from Roger or Steve, If you disagree, say why and I will try to discuss and explain. But don’t complain about my using the thread to see if steve drops by , there are worse posts and discussing casualties, future actions and end of game might be speculative but is based on information and reasoning.

Posted by: newbie | Oct 21 2023 21:00 utc | 391

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 21 2023 18:05 utc | 194
Actually the article that accompanies the dramatic headline is quite somber. After several upbeat paragraphs and ISW spin(recce group penetrations conflated as a 4km advance, etc) the article interviews the PBI on the ground and the previously optimistic tone markedly changes. The troops complain about no air cover, heavily fortified Russian positions, limited progress and constant interdiction of their lines of supply, by the ever-present Russian artillery and airforce. It ends with a pre-packaged excuse for its possible failure, the deteriorating weather.
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2023 17:13 utc | 189
If this conflict follows historical precedent, this situation will only worsen, as two opposite realities begin to grind through the remaining Ukrainian troops at an ever-accelerating rate. Russian troops are improving in the application of their doctrine, since the start of the SMO, whilst Ukrainian troops are considerably worse at implementing theirs. Technology can only partially redress this imbalance, and relying on it as a substitute for tactical competence will only accentuate the long-term decline of the force that has been compelled to take that stop-gap route. The operations last Autumn were a disaster for the Ukrainians, that doomed any of their latter attempts to try to change the strategic situation, as it destroyed the core of their army. Posters who seem to equate the efficacy of a force by crude headcount’s fail to understand the realities of what constitutes an effective fighting force, especially as technology has troops of many of the intrinsic benefits they use to enjoy, a situation that impacts the poorer trained force far more heavily.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 21:26 utc | 393

The operations last Autumn were a disaster for the Ukrainians, that doomed any of their latter attempts to try to change the strategic situation, as it destroyed the core of their army. Posters who seem to equate the efficacy of a force by crude headcount’s fail to understand the realities of what constitutes an effective fighting force, especially as technology has troops of many of the intrinsic benefits they use to enjoy, a situation that impacts the poorer trained force far more heavily.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 21:26 utc | 197
Allow me to partially disagree , even today or yesterday I seem to have read (I think in Kherson ) AFU sent meat waves and only when they broke through did they send decent troops.
I would guess that casualties in the true faithful soldiers are exposed to half or even far less attrition situations (but yes from what might have been an initial force of 300 k they should currently be less than 200.000 still operational
That is the reason why I believe RF will, if the probe at Avdeevka works , launch an assault that forces Ukraine to spend the last true believers (instead of spending another year or two to kill a million of meat)
Furthermore the timing might be just right , for the first time we are seeing what seems free usage of RF Air Force (only now and not in may have air defenses been rendered in operational )
There are no numbers from Avdeevka because they are big compared to what everybody got used to, but it is a test, two answers are needed 1) can RF break the defenses ? 2) is the ratio acceptable
My 2 cents

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2023 21:44 utc | 395

@ Newbie, §198:
Good analysis, Newbie. But why should the Russians risk the inevitable loss of life when they can just kessel it? The Ukie “faithful” will still have to go in to prevent a kessel. All the Russians have to do is take Orlovka – a much easier proposition than a frontal assault on Avdeyevka.

Posted by: John Marks | Oct 21 2023 22:41 utc | 397

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 21 2023 21:44 utc | 198
You might be able to create an initial bridgehead by expending poorly trained troops, but the more capable follow on forces are still exposed to the indirect/aerial fire that the conscripts endured. Worse, the bridgehead is then contained, until another wave of expendable units forces another breakthrough, which gets increasingly harder as target densities versus area occupied reach unsustainable ratios.
It’s also a misnomer that they broke through, the Russian line just retreated in good order, as their was no dynamic exploitation of the advance and no threat to the rear area platforms, that form the mainstay of Russian defences, forcing them to relocate rapidly. This impenetrability of the Russian lines, by relying on poorly trained troops, means any tactical success does not create the concomitant disruption and dislocation that can often lead to further advances and a potential collapse cascade.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 21 2023 22:41 utc | 399