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October 19, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-243
Comments
(Resubmitted)
“b’s” articles, the discussion here conducted by people who know what they’re talking about, and the references given are a source book for any seeking to learn more about this war. It’s become more concentrated and focused recently since the Gaza events have taken attention away from the Ukraine.
I submitted a comment recently, really consisting of little else but the opinion I formed about the conflict in Ukraine well over a year ago. So nothing original there but I’m still pondering the replies, which I found valuable and again focusing on the central points.
What I would very much hope to see also is more information about the first few days of the SMO and the period leading up to that. There was more happening then than was ever mentioned in the Western media and the Russians have with one or two exceptions not said much on their side either. But (my view) it was the most crucial period of the conflict and the period during which public opinion in the West was steered decisively in the wrong direction. And the military experts here might well care to examine how it was that the Russian forces, small and working under heavily restrictive ROE, managed to so defeat the much larger Ukrainian forces and (again my view) set the war on the path it’s followed ever since.
As to the future, the indications are that Ukrainian internal politics is in disarray and one wonders how much longer the Ukrainian forces will be able to sustain the conflict in these circumstances. And also, WHY the Western politicians and military are still insisting on feeding the Ukrainian PBI into the killing grounds. People talk of the war continuing until mid 2024 or even 2025, but is that really practicable?
Then the future for Europe. When the armed conflict in Ukraine is over the Russians will still be left with the problem of missiles too close to the borders and an actively hostile NATO. They will neutralise remnant Ukraine to prevent further annoyance from there, but what of Europe itself?
Seems that all they need to do to neutralise or reduce the threat from Europe is let the supply contracts run out. That and no more would render Europe unable to do too much in the way of further hostile activity. Is that going to be the future we in Europe face? The further wrecking of the economies of our various countries, merely because a set of decidedly substandard politicians decided to take us into this venture and now don’t know how to get clear of it?
Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 19 2023 15:12 utc | 1
(Resubmitted)
“b’s” articles, the discussion here conducted by people who know what they’re talking about, and the references given are a source book for any seeking to learn more about this war. It’s become more concentrated and focused recently since the Gaza events have taken attention away from the Ukraine.
I submitted a comment recently, really consisting of little else but the opinion I formed about the conflict in Ukraine well over a year ago. So nothing original there but I’m still pondering the replies, which I found valuable and again focusing on the central points.
What I would very much hope to see also is more information about the first few days of the SMO and the period leading up to that. There was more happening then than was ever mentioned in the Western media and the Russians have with one or two exceptions not said much on their side either. But (my view) it was the most crucial period of the conflict and the period during which public opinion in the West was steered decisively in the wrong direction. And the military experts here might well care to examine how it was that the Russian forces, small and working under heavily restrictive ROE, managed to so defeat the much larger Ukrainian forces and (again my view) set the war on the path it’s followed ever since.
As to the future, the indications are that Ukrainian internal politics is in disarray and one wonders how much longer the Ukrainian forces will be able to sustain the conflict in these circumstances. And also, WHY the Western politicians and military are still insisting on feeding the Ukrainian PBI into the killing grounds. People talk of the war continuing until mid 2024 or even 2025, but is that really practicable?
Then the future for Europe. When the armed conflict in Ukraine is over the Russians will still be left with the problem of missiles too close to the borders and an actively hostile NATO. They will neutralise remnant Ukraine to prevent further annoyance from there, but what of Europe itself?
Seems that all they need to do to neutralise or reduce the threat from Europe is let the supply contracts run out. That and no more would render Europe unable to do too much in the way of further hostile activity. Is that going to be the future we in Europe face? The further wrecking of the economies of our various countries, merely because a set of decidedly substandard politicians decided to take us into this venture and now don’t know how to get clear of it?
Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 19 2023 15:12 utc | 2
@1,
I think these are all excellent discussion topics, English outsider. I wish I had gotten on board with Russian language telegram before the conflict started, though I’m not sure those commentators and analysts were significantly more informed that what we found here at the bar or in a handful of other places.
I’m convinced that Putin resisted as long as he could and didn’t want the conflict at all. I also don’t think there was a long developed plan to conquer Ukraine beyond the sort of planning all militaries do. That would explain why in some ways russian actions were wildly successful (the geostrategic south) and also chaotic (conscripts in a foreign country, etc.).
The west, inclusive of leadership, media and the public, misread everything. I don’t think the US actually knew or even thought Russia would invade Ukraine. The Kremlin was supposed to be afraid of the US and NATO. All the “Russia is going to invade” was trying to get Russia to back off the border to prove it wasn’t, so that the Ukrainian assault on the Donbas could proceed.
Yes, there will still be NATO forces and missiles near Russia’s borders. No, Russia will not invade Poland or the Baltics to push back NATO borders. The threat was there before and it will remain. Putin is a true Realist and that includes understanding that there are limits to Russian power. But what Ukraine has proven to those capable of hearing in Europe is that Russia will not be pushed or threatened. Perhaps more importantly and because of the colossal incompetence of the west, NATO won’t have the ability to threaten Russia for a generation beyond a few missile placements.
All the talk about how Europe will just rearm with the latest US gear is just that. There will be contracts and promises but not serious production, besides which every European army combined would be smaller than what Ukraine has fielded but without the complete disregard for losses. Russia will be the preeminent military power in Europe for a generation. Threats to it will remain but the cost of threatening Russia went up considerably. It will take an election cycle or two for changes to be obvious in Europe but change will come.
Posted by: Lex | Oct 19 2023 15:36 utc | 3
@1,
I think these are all excellent discussion topics, English outsider. I wish I had gotten on board with Russian language telegram before the conflict started, though I’m not sure those commentators and analysts were significantly more informed that what we found here at the bar or in a handful of other places.
I’m convinced that Putin resisted as long as he could and didn’t want the conflict at all. I also don’t think there was a long developed plan to conquer Ukraine beyond the sort of planning all militaries do. That would explain why in some ways russian actions were wildly successful (the geostrategic south) and also chaotic (conscripts in a foreign country, etc.).
The west, inclusive of leadership, media and the public, misread everything. I don’t think the US actually knew or even thought Russia would invade Ukraine. The Kremlin was supposed to be afraid of the US and NATO. All the “Russia is going to invade” was trying to get Russia to back off the border to prove it wasn’t, so that the Ukrainian assault on the Donbas could proceed.
Yes, there will still be NATO forces and missiles near Russia’s borders. No, Russia will not invade Poland or the Baltics to push back NATO borders. The threat was there before and it will remain. Putin is a true Realist and that includes understanding that there are limits to Russian power. But what Ukraine has proven to those capable of hearing in Europe is that Russia will not be pushed or threatened. Perhaps more importantly and because of the colossal incompetence of the west, NATO won’t have the ability to threaten Russia for a generation beyond a few missile placements.
All the talk about how Europe will just rearm with the latest US gear is just that. There will be contracts and promises but not serious production, besides which every European army combined would be smaller than what Ukraine has fielded but without the complete disregard for losses. Russia will be the preeminent military power in Europe for a generation. Threats to it will remain but the cost of threatening Russia went up considerably. It will take an election cycle or two for changes to be obvious in Europe but change will come.
Posted by: Lex | Oct 19 2023 15:36 utc | 4
@ English Outsider, §1:
Yes, we as much as the Russians, should have questioned the sudden “Putler´s unprovoked invasion” rhetoric from the beginning.
It confirms just how much the British press is now under the control of the 77th brigade. That did an awful lot of damage in dampening down reasonable questioning in the press, just as the corona propaganda did. But there has been a significant tightening just since corona. The Daily Telegraph, for example on corona, permitted a reasoned discourse in its columns with ample opportunity to comment both pro and con. That has dramatically vanished with the Ukraine war and the DT polices any criticism of the Ukraine “Narrative™” with the iron grip of censorship. It seems clear the initial Russian moves were the opposite of unprovoked: they were a reluctant necessity.
Hopefully, when the Russians eventually kill off the toxic “Ukraine”, the EU will reconsider, bolstered by swingeing defeats of NeoCon parties throughout the upcoming European elections – and in the EU parliament itself. If we´re lucky, these results may bring an end to both the EU and NATO, leaving Poland and Rumania to negotiate a peaceful border with Russia. And, from Putin´s past behaviour and speeches, that is all Russia wants.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 19 2023 15:44 utc | 5
@ English Outsider, §1:
Yes, we as much as the Russians, should have questioned the sudden “Putler´s unprovoked invasion” rhetoric from the beginning.
It confirms just how much the British press is now under the control of the 77th brigade. That did an awful lot of damage in dampening down reasonable questioning in the press, just as the corona propaganda did. But there has been a significant tightening just since corona. The Daily Telegraph, for example on corona, permitted a reasoned discourse in its columns with ample opportunity to comment both pro and con. That has dramatically vanished with the Ukraine war and the DT polices any criticism of the Ukraine “Narrative™” with the iron grip of censorship. It seems clear the initial Russian moves were the opposite of unprovoked: they were a reluctant necessity.
Hopefully, when the Russians eventually kill off the toxic “Ukraine”, the EU will reconsider, bolstered by swingeing defeats of NeoCon parties throughout the upcoming European elections – and in the EU parliament itself. If we´re lucky, these results may bring an end to both the EU and NATO, leaving Poland and Rumania to negotiate a peaceful border with Russia. And, from Putin´s past behaviour and speeches, that is all Russia wants.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 19 2023 15:44 utc | 6
Ukrainian situation is remarkable because it is now in the centre of a hurricane/twister. I know there is still fighting and dying there however other events have pushed this 10 year war (2013-2023) to the back pages or not so prominent news reports. The other hot spot which has been in production since the Balfour declaration has sped way past the European space and control.
We no longer stand with Ukraine for as long as takes but we stand with Israel for as long as it takes.
Ukraine…Nothing to see here move along to the middle east.
Having read so much since 2021 about Ukraine (good) and Russia (bad)
I would have thought I needed a break. There is no break just broken pottery to pay for.
On the bright side no sign of Trolls on this thread yet.
To English Observer … a toast. I prefer Redbreast Irish Whisky and Glenmorangie Scotch.
May the wind be at your back.
Posted by: Angelo | Oct 19 2023 15:47 utc | 7
Ukrainian situation is remarkable because it is now in the centre of a hurricane/twister. I know there is still fighting and dying there however other events have pushed this 10 year war (2013-2023) to the back pages or not so prominent news reports. The other hot spot which has been in production since the Balfour declaration has sped way past the European space and control.
We no longer stand with Ukraine for as long as takes but we stand with Israel for as long as it takes.
Ukraine…Nothing to see here move along to the middle east.
Having read so much since 2021 about Ukraine (good) and Russia (bad)
I would have thought I needed a break. There is no break just broken pottery to pay for.
On the bright side no sign of Trolls on this thread yet.
To English Observer … a toast. I prefer Redbreast Irish Whisky and Glenmorangie Scotch.
May the wind be at your back.
Posted by: Angelo | Oct 19 2023 15:47 utc | 8
The continued suicide missions by Ukrainians, imo, is an indication that their willingness to fight is still high. The Crimea landings, Kherson landings, continued foot attacks out of Robotyne. Ukrainians I’ve spoken to say that they are prepared to fight and die, they don’t care. Even if Russia takes the country, the Ukrainians imagine that they will continue to fight as guerrillas.
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 15:57 utc | 9
The continued suicide missions by Ukrainians, imo, is an indication that their willingness to fight is still high. The Crimea landings, Kherson landings, continued foot attacks out of Robotyne. Ukrainians I’ve spoken to say that they are prepared to fight and die, they don’t care. Even if Russia takes the country, the Ukrainians imagine that they will continue to fight as guerrillas.
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 15:57 utc | 10
@1
While I don’t have any special knowledge, but I have followed the situation quite closely right from the start.
The Russians when they first invaded were not well organized and did not have enough troops to hold the amount of territory they occupied. Plus they had no central command and not all the troops where necessarily in the soldier class. Some where more like what we would call civil defense forces. The apparent reason for the weakness was that the initial invasion had only short term planning. Putin, apparently, didn’t expect to go to war, or didn’t want to expend the resources building a large army until he knew that war was unavoidable.
So, what to do next? The Russians held more territory than they could depend on controlling or defending, so they did a tactical retreat. In the south they went across the Dnieper so that the river would be a barrier, and in the north they produced a greatly shortened and lightly defended front line. That accomplished, in the background they started to produce the size of army needed for the task while at the same time building a strong series of defensive lines in the southern area.
In the general hope of breaking through the Russian defensive line, the Ukrainians went on the offense. After they achieved no great success, they should have backed off because they were losing a lot of troops and equipment while doing the Russians only minimal damage. Instead they stupidly kept at it and have been taking serious losses in their attempt to defeat the steadily more superior Russian forces.
For right now it appears that the Ukrainians are too weak to accomplish much of anything beyond getting more of their troops killed. But as typical for them, they continue at it. The Russians remain relatively passive on offensive, perhaps because they don’t want to see the war widen, which an energetic conquest could cause, or they are reluctant to take the troop losses that would go with an energetic offense.
At least that is my version of events.
Posted by: Jmaas | Oct 19 2023 16:14 utc | 11
@1
While I don’t have any special knowledge, but I have followed the situation quite closely right from the start.
The Russians when they first invaded were not well organized and did not have enough troops to hold the amount of territory they occupied. Plus they had no central command and not all the troops where necessarily in the soldier class. Some where more like what we would call civil defense forces. The apparent reason for the weakness was that the initial invasion had only short term planning. Putin, apparently, didn’t expect to go to war, or didn’t want to expend the resources building a large army until he knew that war was unavoidable.
So, what to do next? The Russians held more territory than they could depend on controlling or defending, so they did a tactical retreat. In the south they went across the Dnieper so that the river would be a barrier, and in the north they produced a greatly shortened and lightly defended front line. That accomplished, in the background they started to produce the size of army needed for the task while at the same time building a strong series of defensive lines in the southern area.
In the general hope of breaking through the Russian defensive line, the Ukrainians went on the offense. After they achieved no great success, they should have backed off because they were losing a lot of troops and equipment while doing the Russians only minimal damage. Instead they stupidly kept at it and have been taking serious losses in their attempt to defeat the steadily more superior Russian forces.
For right now it appears that the Ukrainians are too weak to accomplish much of anything beyond getting more of their troops killed. But as typical for them, they continue at it. The Russians remain relatively passive on offensive, perhaps because they don’t want to see the war widen, which an energetic conquest could cause, or they are reluctant to take the troop losses that would go with an energetic offense.
At least that is my version of events.
Posted by: Jmaas | Oct 19 2023 16:14 utc | 12
Ukrainians I’ve spoken to say that they are prepared to fight and die, they don’t care.
Just curious, are these Ukrainians you’re speaking with on the front line?
I’ve seen a couple myself with the same attitude, but they’re conveniently in the US.
Posted by: Fred777 | Oct 19 2023 16:15 utc | 13
Ukrainians I’ve spoken to say that they are prepared to fight and die, they don’t care.
Just curious, are these Ukrainians you’re speaking with on the front line?
I’ve seen a couple myself with the same attitude, but they’re conveniently in the US.
Posted by: Fred777 | Oct 19 2023 16:15 utc | 14
What has been overlooked in the great commentaries by Mearsheimer, Ritter and many others is the prime motivation for Russia’s operations in Ukraine: Crimea. Russia did not want Ukraine to become a member of NATO simply because of Crimea. Crimea would have become a NATO operation with US navy occupation. No way that Russia would accept that situation.
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | Oct 19 2023 16:19 utc | 15
What has been overlooked in the great commentaries by Mearsheimer, Ritter and many others is the prime motivation for Russia’s operations in Ukraine: Crimea. Russia did not want Ukraine to become a member of NATO simply because of Crimea. Crimea would have become a NATO operation with US navy occupation. No way that Russia would accept that situation.
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | Oct 19 2023 16:19 utc | 16
angelo@4
The cost of the medium grade 15 year old Redbreast (there are more expensive 21 and 27 year old varieties) is about $140 Canadian. The Glenmorangie Signet is $345!
Don’t get hung over.
Posted by: bevin | Oct 19 2023 16:29 utc | 17
angelo@4
The cost of the medium grade 15 year old Redbreast (there are more expensive 21 and 27 year old varieties) is about $140 Canadian. The Glenmorangie Signet is $345!
Don’t get hung over.
Posted by: bevin | Oct 19 2023 16:29 utc | 18
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | Oct 19 2023 16:19 utc | 8
You’re right, by refusing Ukraine into NATO Putin is actually *preventing* a nuclear war (over Crimea).
Posted by: blueswde | Oct 19 2023 16:42 utc | 19
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | Oct 19 2023 16:19 utc | 8
You’re right, by refusing Ukraine into NATO Putin is actually *preventing* a nuclear war (over Crimea).
Posted by: blueswde | Oct 19 2023 16:42 utc | 20
Ukrainians I’ve spoken to say that they are prepared to fight and die, they don’t care.
Hmm.
Just curious, are you a clairvoyant? can you speak do dead Ukrainian soldiers on the ‘other side’?
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Oct 19 2023 16:44 utc | 21
Ukrainians I’ve spoken to say that they are prepared to fight and die, they don’t care.
Hmm.
Just curious, are you a clairvoyant? can you speak do dead Ukrainian soldiers on the ‘other side’?
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Oct 19 2023 16:44 utc | 22
the Ukrainians imagine that they will continue to fight as guerrillas
The Nazis new army, some crusty bitches and a handful of rag tags?
Imagine is what they do, and bluster. They do that well. When their fabled enemy arrives, they will fade away, their vicious promises forgotten, as they will find themselves nearly alone, and merely mortal flesh.
Slogans don’t bleed out from gut shots but people surely do. The fascists will send terrorists..they always have. But the abilities of Maerica are dwindling rapidly. One day, almost in view now, the shoe will be on the other foot.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 19 2023 16:52 utc | 23
the Ukrainians imagine that they will continue to fight as guerrillas
The Nazis new army, some crusty bitches and a handful of rag tags?
Imagine is what they do, and bluster. They do that well. When their fabled enemy arrives, they will fade away, their vicious promises forgotten, as they will find themselves nearly alone, and merely mortal flesh.
Slogans don’t bleed out from gut shots but people surely do. The fascists will send terrorists..they always have. But the abilities of Maerica are dwindling rapidly. One day, almost in view now, the shoe will be on the other foot.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 19 2023 16:52 utc | 24
What I would very much hope to see also is more information about the first few days of the SMO and the period leading up to that. There was more happening then than was ever mentioned in the Western media and the Russians have with one or two exceptions not said much on their side either. But (my view) it was the most crucial period of the conflict and the period during which public opinion in the West was steered decisively in the wrong direction. And the military experts here might well care to examine how it was that the Russian forces, small and working under heavily restrictive ROE, managed to so defeat the much larger Ukrainian forces and (again my view) set the war on the path it’s followed ever since.
Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 19 2023 15:12 utc | 1
Thank you.
What you might consider interesting is that RF forces lost over 11.000 KIA in just the last week of february and over 4.000 probably as the offensive stalled in the first week of march (the total KIA for march were close to 4.400) . 15.000 KIA Another 15.000 WIA irretrievably wounded and 30.000 WIA needing mending. 60.000 hors de combat, at 50% losses there was probably little to no operational capacity from the units that entered ukraine.
If the UAF wasn’t worse RF forces might crumble from any serious attack.
Why do I use these numbers? KIA is from the excess mortality minus covid deaths plus adjustment of 1.200 for the always prudent excess mortality (had to do the same for covid, normal lines have margin) check it in the link, it also gives us an estimate with 3 months delay of Russian casualties for the rest of the SMO.
Link to the economist
For the rest 1 KIA to 1 WIA not recoverable is a nomal ratio, as is 1KIA to 3 WIA (total) hence 2 recoverable but out of immediate use.
Posted by: newbie | Oct 19 2023 16:52 utc | 25
What I would very much hope to see also is more information about the first few days of the SMO and the period leading up to that. There was more happening then than was ever mentioned in the Western media and the Russians have with one or two exceptions not said much on their side either. But (my view) it was the most crucial period of the conflict and the period during which public opinion in the West was steered decisively in the wrong direction. And the military experts here might well care to examine how it was that the Russian forces, small and working under heavily restrictive ROE, managed to so defeat the much larger Ukrainian forces and (again my view) set the war on the path it’s followed ever since.
Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 19 2023 15:12 utc | 1
Thank you.
What you might consider interesting is that RF forces lost over 11.000 KIA in just the last week of february and over 4.000 probably as the offensive stalled in the first week of march (the total KIA for march were close to 4.400) . 15.000 KIA Another 15.000 WIA irretrievably wounded and 30.000 WIA needing mending. 60.000 hors de combat, at 50% losses there was probably little to no operational capacity from the units that entered ukraine.
If the UAF wasn’t worse RF forces might crumble from any serious attack.
Why do I use these numbers? KIA is from the excess mortality minus covid deaths plus adjustment of 1.200 for the always prudent excess mortality (had to do the same for covid, normal lines have margin) check it in the link, it also gives us an estimate with 3 months delay of Russian casualties for the rest of the SMO.
Link to the economist
For the rest 1 KIA to 1 WIA not recoverable is a nomal ratio, as is 1KIA to 3 WIA (total) hence 2 recoverable but out of immediate use.
Posted by: newbie | Oct 19 2023 16:52 utc | 26
“Ukrainians are ready to fight and die”…which obviously explains why so many have emigrated…
Posted by: JohnH | Oct 19 2023 16:56 utc | 27
“Ukrainians are ready to fight and die”…which obviously explains why so many have emigrated…
Posted by: JohnH | Oct 19 2023 16:56 utc | 28
Ludicrous casulalty numbers. Ukraine is suffering something like a 10 to 1 loss ratio. It’s pretty evident when you’re sending waves of untrained dudes into prepared defense zones teeming with mines both antipersonnel and antitank and presighted artillery and nearby drones all under a protective EW and SEAD blanket.
In other words newbie that’s just bullshit sorry.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 19 2023 16:56 utc | 29
Ludicrous casulalty numbers. Ukraine is suffering something like a 10 to 1 loss ratio. It’s pretty evident when you’re sending waves of untrained dudes into prepared defense zones teeming with mines both antipersonnel and antitank and presighted artillery and nearby drones all under a protective EW and SEAD blanket.
In other words newbie that’s just bullshit sorry.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 19 2023 16:56 utc | 30
Ludicrous casulalty numbers. Ukraine is suffering something like a 10 to 1 loss ratio. It’s pretty evident when you’re sending waves of untrained dudes into prepared defense zones teeming with mines both antipersonnel and antitank and presighted artillery and nearby drones all under a protective EW and SEAD blanket.
In other words newbie that’s just bullshit sorry.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 19 2023 16:56 utc | 15
That is ONLY for the first two weeks of the SMO end of february 2022 and start of march 2022. I just say that particular first drive had to stop if kiev didn’t quit. (check the link and find russia’s chart and use absolute values)
And yes, I assume the ukranians were taking 8 to 1 casualties as they have throughout the full SMO (and that estimate is congruent with what little is known of AFU KIA from amputees and sociological studies)
Until July 2023 the estimate for RF KIA is 50.600. and over 400.000 for AFU KIA (maybe worse if the ratio has reached double digits)
Posted by: newbie | Oct 19 2023 17:16 utc | 31
Ludicrous casulalty numbers. Ukraine is suffering something like a 10 to 1 loss ratio. It’s pretty evident when you’re sending waves of untrained dudes into prepared defense zones teeming with mines both antipersonnel and antitank and presighted artillery and nearby drones all under a protective EW and SEAD blanket.
In other words newbie that’s just bullshit sorry.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 19 2023 16:56 utc | 15
That is ONLY for the first two weeks of the SMO end of february 2022 and start of march 2022. I just say that particular first drive had to stop if kiev didn’t quit. (check the link and find russia’s chart and use absolute values)
And yes, I assume the ukranians were taking 8 to 1 casualties as they have throughout the full SMO (and that estimate is congruent with what little is known of AFU KIA from amputees and sociological studies)
Until July 2023 the estimate for RF KIA is 50.600. and over 400.000 for AFU KIA (maybe worse if the ratio has reached double digits)
Posted by: newbie | Oct 19 2023 17:16 utc | 32
In other words newbie that’s just bullshit sorry.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 19 2023 16:56 utc | 15
And I think that’s what Boris sold to Z… “they’re at 50%!”
he only forgot that in a couple of weeks, long before AFU could do anything, those recoverable WIA would return and @90.000 and 75% strength RF could hold most of what it had taken.
Posted by: newbie | Oct 19 2023 17:23 utc | 33
In other words newbie that’s just bullshit sorry.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 19 2023 16:56 utc | 15
And I think that’s what Boris sold to Z… “they’re at 50%!”
he only forgot that in a couple of weeks, long before AFU could do anything, those recoverable WIA would return and @90.000 and 75% strength RF could hold most of what it had taken.
Posted by: newbie | Oct 19 2023 17:23 utc | 34
Drone control is apparently to be taught in Ukraine schools.
As a result of the war in Ukraine, Ukrainian schoolchildren will apparently be taught how to control drones in the future. This emerges from a report by the state online media ArmyInform, which reports to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
Accordingly, the school subject “Defense of Ukraine” will be adjusted accordingly. The training does not necessarily have to be in the military sector, but can also take place in the civilian sector. Specifically, flying, manufacturing, developing or upgrading drones should be taught.
In the fall of 1944, the Volkssturm was supposed to draft all men between the ages of 16 and 60 who were able to bear arms. In modern times it probably needs to be adjusted, but nothing has changed at all. Where does the “Defense of Ukraine” stop when myths about knives in the back arise, I wonder? Ukraine will be a broken country in several ways.
Otherwise hope for partisan war with kids? A little terror in Europe? At the same time, it is an expression of desperation and a large number of officials – whether in the West or the Global South – will turn up their noses at these measures. It’s better not to provide drones to Ukraine, right?
People in the West never seem to have many visions these days. It’s just important not to take responsibility for it internally. Every time it’s Astonishing again.
Posted by: Konrad | Oct 19 2023 17:25 utc | 37
Drone control is apparently to be taught in Ukraine schools.
As a result of the war in Ukraine, Ukrainian schoolchildren will apparently be taught how to control drones in the future. This emerges from a report by the state online media ArmyInform, which reports to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
Accordingly, the school subject “Defense of Ukraine” will be adjusted accordingly. The training does not necessarily have to be in the military sector, but can also take place in the civilian sector. Specifically, flying, manufacturing, developing or upgrading drones should be taught.
In the fall of 1944, the Volkssturm was supposed to draft all men between the ages of 16 and 60 who were able to bear arms. In modern times it probably needs to be adjusted, but nothing has changed at all. Where does the “Defense of Ukraine” stop when myths about knives in the back arise, I wonder? Ukraine will be a broken country in several ways.
Otherwise hope for partisan war with kids? A little terror in Europe? At the same time, it is an expression of desperation and a large number of officials – whether in the West or the Global South – will turn up their noses at these measures. It’s better not to provide drones to Ukraine, right?
People in the West never seem to have many visions these days. It’s just important not to take responsibility for it internally. Every time it’s Astonishing again.
Posted by: Konrad | Oct 19 2023 17:25 utc | 38
The Israeli anti-terror war is getting so much attention, that even the pro-Russian Telegram channels seem to dedicate half or more of their posts to it.
If you are only interested in SMO news, you need to scroll down so fast that your finger hurts.
Boy, Elensky is so, so screwed….
Posted by: Alexander P | Oct 19 2023 17:31 utc | 39
The Israeli anti-terror war is getting so much attention, that even the pro-Russian Telegram channels seem to dedicate half or more of their posts to it.
If you are only interested in SMO news, you need to scroll down so fast that your finger hurts.
Boy, Elensky is so, so screwed….
Posted by: Alexander P | Oct 19 2023 17:31 utc | 40
Posted by: Jmaas | Oct 19 2023 16:14 utc | 6
Ukraine is an artificial entity, a product of the Soviet Union. The territory of the country includes the land traditionally called Ukraine, plus territories of Russia, Poland, Hungary, Romania.
Accordingly, “Ukrainian” is “homogeneous”.
The first mistake was to leave the territory of the Soviet Union.
From today’s point of view it smells suspiciously of “color intervention” in the chaos of that time.
Then Ukraine did not get its soldiers of fortune (oligarchs) under control, probably because state institutions had already been infiltrated. The result was a corruption paradise, a failed state. Nothing was gained from the initial industrialization advantage over Russia either.
Ukraine was known for its arms exports and smuggling, prostitution abroad and human trafficking, and mercenaries.
Without Russian gas at a friendship price and loans, Ukraine would have disintegrated long ago.
But the majority was still against joining NATO.
Then NATO putsched a group into power that democratically could never have won a majority.
Thus Ukraine became a sock puppet.
They could have given Donetsk and Luhansk independence as well as the SU let Ukraine go.
Then there would have been no more war and they could have (were allowed to?) join NATO.
They could have taken revenge on the SU and Stalin and given up corresponding state territories.
Or implement Minsk 1 and 2, or accept Russia’s offer last year.
“Ukraine” no longer makes its own decisions.
It does not think about the welfare of the state and citizens.
It still tries to harm the RF in the interests of the USa/Gb, at its own expense.
Thats all
Posted by: 600w | Oct 19 2023 17:31 utc | 41
Posted by: Jmaas | Oct 19 2023 16:14 utc | 6
Ukraine is an artificial entity, a product of the Soviet Union. The territory of the country includes the land traditionally called Ukraine, plus territories of Russia, Poland, Hungary, Romania.
Accordingly, “Ukrainian” is “homogeneous”.
The first mistake was to leave the territory of the Soviet Union.
From today’s point of view it smells suspiciously of “color intervention” in the chaos of that time.
Then Ukraine did not get its soldiers of fortune (oligarchs) under control, probably because state institutions had already been infiltrated. The result was a corruption paradise, a failed state. Nothing was gained from the initial industrialization advantage over Russia either.
Ukraine was known for its arms exports and smuggling, prostitution abroad and human trafficking, and mercenaries.
Without Russian gas at a friendship price and loans, Ukraine would have disintegrated long ago.
But the majority was still against joining NATO.
Then NATO putsched a group into power that democratically could never have won a majority.
Thus Ukraine became a sock puppet.
They could have given Donetsk and Luhansk independence as well as the SU let Ukraine go.
Then there would have been no more war and they could have (were allowed to?) join NATO.
They could have taken revenge on the SU and Stalin and given up corresponding state territories.
Or implement Minsk 1 and 2, or accept Russia’s offer last year.
“Ukraine” no longer makes its own decisions.
It does not think about the welfare of the state and citizens.
It still tries to harm the RF in the interests of the USa/Gb, at its own expense.
Thats all
Posted by: 600w | Oct 19 2023 17:31 utc | 42
Posted by: Jmaas | Oct 19 2023 16:14 utc | 6
Ukraine is an artificial entity, a product of the Soviet Union. The territory of the country includes the land traditionally called Ukraine, plus territories of Russia, Poland, Hungary, Romania.
Accordingly, “Ukrainian” is “homogeneous”.
The first mistake was to leave the territory of the Soviet Union.
From today’s point of view it smells suspiciously of “color intervention” in the chaos of that time.
Then Ukraine did not get its soldiers of fortune (oligarchs) under control, probably because state institutions had already been infiltrated. The result was a corruption paradise, a failed state. Nothing was gained from the initial industrialization advantage over Russia either.
Ukraine was known for its arms exports and smuggling, prostitution abroad and human trafficking, and mercenaries.
Without Russian gas at a friendship price and loans, Ukraine would have disintegrated long ago.
But the majority was still against joining NATO.
Then NATO putsched a group into power that democratically could never have won a majority.
Thus Ukraine became a sock puppet.
They could have given Donetsk and Luhansk independence as well as the SU let Ukraine go.
Then there would have been no more war and they could have (were allowed to?) join NATO.
They could have taken revenge on the SU and Stalin and given up corresponding state territories.
Or implement Minsk 1 and 2, or accept Russia’s offer last year.
“Ukraine” no longer makes its own decisions.
It does not think about the welfare of the state and citizens.
It still tries to harm the RF in the interests of the USa/Gb, at its own expense.
Thats all
Posted by: 600w | Oct 19 2023 17:31 utc | 43
Posted by: Jmaas | Oct 19 2023 16:14 utc | 6
Ukraine is an artificial entity, a product of the Soviet Union. The territory of the country includes the land traditionally called Ukraine, plus territories of Russia, Poland, Hungary, Romania.
Accordingly, “Ukrainian” is “homogeneous”.
The first mistake was to leave the territory of the Soviet Union.
From today’s point of view it smells suspiciously of “color intervention” in the chaos of that time.
Then Ukraine did not get its soldiers of fortune (oligarchs) under control, probably because state institutions had already been infiltrated. The result was a corruption paradise, a failed state. Nothing was gained from the initial industrialization advantage over Russia either.
Ukraine was known for its arms exports and smuggling, prostitution abroad and human trafficking, and mercenaries.
Without Russian gas at a friendship price and loans, Ukraine would have disintegrated long ago.
But the majority was still against joining NATO.
Then NATO putsched a group into power that democratically could never have won a majority.
Thus Ukraine became a sock puppet.
They could have given Donetsk and Luhansk independence as well as the SU let Ukraine go.
Then there would have been no more war and they could have (were allowed to?) join NATO.
They could have taken revenge on the SU and Stalin and given up corresponding state territories.
Or implement Minsk 1 and 2, or accept Russia’s offer last year.
“Ukraine” no longer makes its own decisions.
It does not think about the welfare of the state and citizens.
It still tries to harm the RF in the interests of the USa/Gb, at its own expense.
Thats all
Posted by: 600w | Oct 19 2023 17:31 utc | 44
@5
I suspect that Russia is willing to continue the conflict as long as Russia hating Ukranians are willing to die. If Russia were to end it now, there may well be an insurrection problem. This way the problem solves itself. Grim, but practical
Posted by: Tommy | Oct 19 2023 17:32 utc | 45
@5
I suspect that Russia is willing to continue the conflict as long as Russia hating Ukranians are willing to die. If Russia were to end it now, there may well be an insurrection problem. This way the problem solves itself. Grim, but practical
Posted by: Tommy | Oct 19 2023 17:32 utc | 46
Great post EO.
With regard to your question as to why they still send so many to their deaths, one can only assume that part of the plan is to de-populate. We begin to understand the level of evil the world is dealing with, and this evil infests many countries of the ‘western’ world.
Posted by: Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Oct 19 2023 17:39 utc | 47
Great post EO.
With regard to your question as to why they still send so many to their deaths, one can only assume that part of the plan is to de-populate. We begin to understand the level of evil the world is dealing with, and this evil infests many countries of the ‘western’ world.
Posted by: Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Oct 19 2023 17:39 utc | 48
Posted by: Tommy | Oct 19 2023 17:32 utc | 22
The problem is how long can RF sustain this level of spending because war takes a lot of resources. This will be sooner than Ukraine runs out of soldiers I think if I look at the ruble chart.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 19 2023 17:40 utc | 49
Posted by: Tommy | Oct 19 2023 17:32 utc | 22
The problem is how long can RF sustain this level of spending because war takes a lot of resources. This will be sooner than Ukraine runs out of soldiers I think if I look at the ruble chart.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 19 2023 17:40 utc | 50
Go away, newb. Finish your beer and go home.
Posted by: comrade simba | Oct 19 2023 17:25 utc | 18
Care to explain why?
I think I was one of the first to contemplate AFU KIA in the half a million region (from amputees and poll numbers, first estimates were even closer to a million when everybody talked about 100k)
As I assume RF still provides true figures for mortality (unlike Ukraine that hasn’t updated since the start of the SMO) I used them and crossed them against other open source estimates (excess mortality for under 50 males and inheritances), that allows for more frequently updated numbers than other studies and monthly detail (weekly for february 2022 as there was only one).
BTW that’s why I mentioned that I expected, due to a document by the RF finance minister asking for money for KIA indemnities) that if granted he had a “surplus” for 70.000+ , way more than all RF KIA until now.
What could use that? the answer is simple 2 months at full SMO (first weeks) casualties. To sustain that the forces involved should be on the 600.000 level so as not to risk loss of operationality.
Feel free to criticize any assumption or inference.
Posted by: newbie | Oct 19 2023 17:41 utc | 51
Go away, newb. Finish your beer and go home.
Posted by: comrade simba | Oct 19 2023 17:25 utc | 18
Care to explain why?
I think I was one of the first to contemplate AFU KIA in the half a million region (from amputees and poll numbers, first estimates were even closer to a million when everybody talked about 100k)
As I assume RF still provides true figures for mortality (unlike Ukraine that hasn’t updated since the start of the SMO) I used them and crossed them against other open source estimates (excess mortality for under 50 males and inheritances), that allows for more frequently updated numbers than other studies and monthly detail (weekly for february 2022 as there was only one).
BTW that’s why I mentioned that I expected, due to a document by the RF finance minister asking for money for KIA indemnities) that if granted he had a “surplus” for 70.000+ , way more than all RF KIA until now.
What could use that? the answer is simple 2 months at full SMO (first weeks) casualties. To sustain that the forces involved should be on the 600.000 level so as not to risk loss of operationality.
Feel free to criticize any assumption or inference.
Posted by: newbie | Oct 19 2023 17:41 utc | 52
Ukraine lights up statue of Nazi collaborator, Stephan Bandera, with colors of Israeli flag.
Peak Clown World.
https://twitter.com/Ramy_Sawma/status/1712812520296112616
Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 19 2023 17:53 utc | 53
Ukraine lights up statue of Nazi collaborator, Stephan Bandera, with colors of Israeli flag.
Peak Clown World.
https://twitter.com/Ramy_Sawma/status/1712812520296112616
Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 19 2023 17:53 utc | 54
#10 – You’re right, by refusing Ukraine into NATO Putin is actually *preventing* a nuclear war (over Crimea).
It was very apparent in 2014 that Russia’s deft moves to secure Crimea and facilitate the referendum prevented a major military clash and massive attendant loss of life from occurring. When I explained this to people at the time they reacted incredulously and dismissed the notion as crude “propaganda” and lamented that a major crisis had been averted. The failure to grasp that the Russians would never permit their Crimean facilities to transfer to NATO is the most glaring factual deficit shared by Ukraine’s supporters.
Posted by: jayc | Oct 19 2023 17:56 utc | 55
#10 – You’re right, by refusing Ukraine into NATO Putin is actually *preventing* a nuclear war (over Crimea).
It was very apparent in 2014 that Russia’s deft moves to secure Crimea and facilitate the referendum prevented a major military clash and massive attendant loss of life from occurring. When I explained this to people at the time they reacted incredulously and dismissed the notion as crude “propaganda” and lamented that a major crisis had been averted. The failure to grasp that the Russians would never permit their Crimean facilities to transfer to NATO is the most glaring factual deficit shared by Ukraine’s supporters.
Posted by: jayc | Oct 19 2023 17:56 utc | 56
Ukrainians are ready to fight to the end say Ukranians living abroad.
Posted by: Comandante | Oct 19 2023 17:57 utc | 57
Ukrainians are ready to fight to the end say Ukranians living abroad.
Posted by: Comandante | Oct 19 2023 17:57 utc | 58
The problem is how long can RF sustain this level of spending because war takes a lot of resources. This will be sooner than Ukraine runs out of soldiers I think if I look at the ruble chart.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 19 2023 17:40 utc | 25
What does the ruble chart have to do with Russia’s possession of or access to resources?
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 19 2023 18:00 utc | 59
The problem is how long can RF sustain this level of spending because war takes a lot of resources. This will be sooner than Ukraine runs out of soldiers I think if I look at the ruble chart.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 19 2023 17:40 utc | 25
What does the ruble chart have to do with Russia’s possession of or access to resources?
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 19 2023 18:00 utc | 60
“As a result of the war in Ukraine, Ukrainian schoolchildren will apparently be taught how to control drones in the future.”
Looks like the ambassador to Ukie schools, Spirit Cooker Marina Abramovic, has hit the ground running.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 19 2023 18:01 utc | 61
“As a result of the war in Ukraine, Ukrainian schoolchildren will apparently be taught how to control drones in the future.”
Looks like the ambassador to Ukie schools, Spirit Cooker Marina Abramovic, has hit the ground running.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 19 2023 18:01 utc | 62
Posted by: Fred777 | Oct 19 2023 16:15 utc | 7
The ones launching suicide attack after suicide attack were obviously willing to “fight and die”. Launching jet ski assaults against Crimea isn’t something that an army low on morale can do. Ukraine is probably just as far from giving up as Hamas, despite the large disadvantage in relative firepower both suffer.
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 18:08 utc | 63
Posted by: Fred777 | Oct 19 2023 16:15 utc | 7
The ones launching suicide attack after suicide attack were obviously willing to “fight and die”. Launching jet ski assaults against Crimea isn’t something that an army low on morale can do. Ukraine is probably just as far from giving up as Hamas, despite the large disadvantage in relative firepower both suffer.
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 18:08 utc | 64
The ones launching suicide attack after suicide attack were obviously willing to “fight and die”. Launching jet ski assaults against Crimea isn’t something that an army low on morale can do. Ukraine is probably just as far from giving up as Hamas, despite the large disadvantage in relative firepower both suffer.
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 18:08 utc | 32
The jet ski stuff is probably being carried out by special units that benefit from strong esprit de corps. I would suspect that ukrainian general army morale is still strong, way stronger than people on these pro russian sites believe, but already past its peak.
Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 19 2023 18:18 utc | 65
The ones launching suicide attack after suicide attack were obviously willing to “fight and die”. Launching jet ski assaults against Crimea isn’t something that an army low on morale can do. Ukraine is probably just as far from giving up as Hamas, despite the large disadvantage in relative firepower both suffer.
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 18:08 utc | 32
The jet ski stuff is probably being carried out by special units that benefit from strong esprit de corps. I would suspect that ukrainian general army morale is still strong, way stronger than people on these pro russian sites believe, but already past its peak.
Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 19 2023 18:18 utc | 66
catdog
You are not speaking of high morale. You are speaking of astonishing levels of stupidity. Or you might consider the even stupider story taught to Ukrainian schoolchildren that when they die on field of battle they will be resurrected by Valkyries flying down from Valhalla on the backs of wolves and thence kill fabulous numbers of the hated Russians. Stupider and stupider. Any with IQ above room temperature left 404 decades ago. A few mid-level Nazis remained behind to run the shitshow. Most of those are currently jumping ship for their villas in Florida or Israel.
I live in Chicago and have know Ukrainian emigrés all my life. Buffoons. (Those who came before WWII are normal and fine. It is the situation, not the ethnicity.)
Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 19 2023 18:29 utc | 67
catdog
You are not speaking of high morale. You are speaking of astonishing levels of stupidity. Or you might consider the even stupider story taught to Ukrainian schoolchildren that when they die on field of battle they will be resurrected by Valkyries flying down from Valhalla on the backs of wolves and thence kill fabulous numbers of the hated Russians. Stupider and stupider. Any with IQ above room temperature left 404 decades ago. A few mid-level Nazis remained behind to run the shitshow. Most of those are currently jumping ship for their villas in Florida or Israel.
I live in Chicago and have know Ukrainian emigrés all my life. Buffoons. (Those who came before WWII are normal and fine. It is the situation, not the ethnicity.)
Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 19 2023 18:29 utc | 68
The continued suicide missions by Ukrainians, imo, is an indication that their willingness to fight is still high. The Crimea landings, Kherson landings, continued foot attacks out of Robotyne. Ukrainians I’ve spoken to say that they are prepared to fight and die, they don’t care. Even if Russia takes the country, the Ukrainians imagine that they will continue to fight as guerrillas.
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 15:57 utc | 5
The willingness to throw away the ‘meat’ of Ukraine’s military, it’s soldiers, is something unique to this conflict. Most responsible leadership would have taken a realistic assessment of the situation and conclude that the losses cannot be justified. Not the leadership in Ukraine, and not the leadership in the US, which complains that Ukraine is ‘casualty averse’ when it doesn’t want to sacrifice even more men. The Ukrainian attitude comes from the nationalists, the Banderites, who think that they are the only true Ukrainians, and that all of Ukraine, including the ethnic Russian regions, is theirs. Interesting that the entire front line is in a region of Ukraine peopled with a majority of ethnic Russians/Russian speakers who want no part of the Kiev fascists, yet the mainstream media talks about liberating these people, a mark of the thorough job of brainwashing the West has done. I doubt if the average AFU soldier from outside the Donbass really understands this, and feel good patriotism administered by highly sophisticated propaganda in an authoritarian police state is enough to keep most of the troops complying with dear leader’s wishes, and if that isn’t enough there are drugs. As for the ethnic Russians from Odessa and other Russian speaking cities press-ganged into the fighting, I imagine they are doing their best to stay alive in an impossible situation. As to why groups of AFU soldiers go into suicide missions with no hope of success, I imagine there will be a lot of books written about that in years to come, but I believe that only a small percentage of them are true zealots.
Posted by: Mike R | Oct 19 2023 18:31 utc | 69
The continued suicide missions by Ukrainians, imo, is an indication that their willingness to fight is still high. The Crimea landings, Kherson landings, continued foot attacks out of Robotyne. Ukrainians I’ve spoken to say that they are prepared to fight and die, they don’t care. Even if Russia takes the country, the Ukrainians imagine that they will continue to fight as guerrillas.
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 15:57 utc | 5
The willingness to throw away the ‘meat’ of Ukraine’s military, it’s soldiers, is something unique to this conflict. Most responsible leadership would have taken a realistic assessment of the situation and conclude that the losses cannot be justified. Not the leadership in Ukraine, and not the leadership in the US, which complains that Ukraine is ‘casualty averse’ when it doesn’t want to sacrifice even more men. The Ukrainian attitude comes from the nationalists, the Banderites, who think that they are the only true Ukrainians, and that all of Ukraine, including the ethnic Russian regions, is theirs. Interesting that the entire front line is in a region of Ukraine peopled with a majority of ethnic Russians/Russian speakers who want no part of the Kiev fascists, yet the mainstream media talks about liberating these people, a mark of the thorough job of brainwashing the West has done. I doubt if the average AFU soldier from outside the Donbass really understands this, and feel good patriotism administered by highly sophisticated propaganda in an authoritarian police state is enough to keep most of the troops complying with dear leader’s wishes, and if that isn’t enough there are drugs. As for the ethnic Russians from Odessa and other Russian speaking cities press-ganged into the fighting, I imagine they are doing their best to stay alive in an impossible situation. As to why groups of AFU soldiers go into suicide missions with no hope of success, I imagine there will be a lot of books written about that in years to come, but I believe that only a small percentage of them are true zealots.
Posted by: Mike R | Oct 19 2023 18:31 utc | 70
Can anyone help me with a link to a site where a detailed map of Avdeevka and its surroundings might be found?
Posted by: chet380 | Oct 19 2023 18:34 utc | 71
Can anyone help me with a link to a site where a detailed map of Avdeevka and its surroundings might be found?
Posted by: chet380 | Oct 19 2023 18:34 utc | 72
“The ones launching suicide attack after suicide attack were obviously willing to “fight and die”. Launching jet ski assaults against Crimea isn’t something that an army low on morale can do. Ukraine is probably just as far from giving up as Hamas, despite the large disadvantage in relative firepower both suffer.”
U are saying some jetski riding guys speak for the hubdreds of thousands ukranians sitting inside a trench waiting to be buried alive?
Im gona say the total jetski/landing suicide guys are not even 2% of entire ukranian army.
Most of Ukranian fighters have been mobilized and are sitting in trenches or being sent conquer hills on foot in the meatgrinder.
Posted by: Comandante | Oct 19 2023 18:35 utc | 73
“The ones launching suicide attack after suicide attack were obviously willing to “fight and die”. Launching jet ski assaults against Crimea isn’t something that an army low on morale can do. Ukraine is probably just as far from giving up as Hamas, despite the large disadvantage in relative firepower both suffer.”
U are saying some jetski riding guys speak for the hubdreds of thousands ukranians sitting inside a trench waiting to be buried alive?
Im gona say the total jetski/landing suicide guys are not even 2% of entire ukranian army.
Most of Ukranian fighters have been mobilized and are sitting in trenches or being sent conquer hills on foot in the meatgrinder.
Posted by: Comandante | Oct 19 2023 18:35 utc | 74
I live in Chicago and have know Ukrainian emigrés all my life. Buffoons. (Those who came before WWII are normal and fine. It is the situation, not the ethnicity.)
Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 19 2023 18:29 utc | 34
I have had one experience with a Ukrainian, a young lady from Kiev, who was my lab partner in a physical chemistry lab in the ’90’s. On the first day it was obvious that she had no qualifications for what is a difficult undergrad science course, as she had not taken any calculus or physics prerequisites. I tried to get her to understand that it would be impossible for her to pass the course without these fundamentals, and it would be best for her to drop the course, but she stubbornly insisted on pressing on. She kept demanding that I provide her with my lab reports, which I knew she would copy, so I refused, and she accused me of hating her and not wanting her to succeed. It was an ongoing soap opera. I never met any one as obstinate as this woman, and in such total denial of reality. About 4 weeks into the course, she took the first test, failed it, and dropped the course. I had to wonder, is everyone from Ukraine like this?
Posted by: Mike R | Oct 19 2023 18:48 utc | 75
I live in Chicago and have know Ukrainian emigrés all my life. Buffoons. (Those who came before WWII are normal and fine. It is the situation, not the ethnicity.)
Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 19 2023 18:29 utc | 34
I have had one experience with a Ukrainian, a young lady from Kiev, who was my lab partner in a physical chemistry lab in the ’90’s. On the first day it was obvious that she had no qualifications for what is a difficult undergrad science course, as she had not taken any calculus or physics prerequisites. I tried to get her to understand that it would be impossible for her to pass the course without these fundamentals, and it would be best for her to drop the course, but she stubbornly insisted on pressing on. She kept demanding that I provide her with my lab reports, which I knew she would copy, so I refused, and she accused me of hating her and not wanting her to succeed. It was an ongoing soap opera. I never met any one as obstinate as this woman, and in such total denial of reality. About 4 weeks into the course, she took the first test, failed it, and dropped the course. I had to wonder, is everyone from Ukraine like this?
Posted by: Mike R | Oct 19 2023 18:48 utc | 76
Ukraine is experiencing tension amid “extremely fierce” fighting in Avdiivka. Thus, against the backdrop of the need to support the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the south of the country, the Ukrainian authorities completely missed Avdiivka, did not carry out a rotation and ignored the problem of ammunition shortages, despite the alarming intelligence received from there.
Meanwhile, Avdeevka, located south of battle-ravaged Bakhmut, has long been a target of Russian forces and the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in this direction has become the largest offensive operation since the beginning of full-scale military operations. Moreover, military analysts are already talking about the “Avdiivka loop” – the city is surrounded on all sides with the exception of the western side, which is why the threat of a “cauldron” for fifteen thousand Ukrainian soldiers is becoming more and more real.
And although the Ukrainian command is now trying with all its might to prevent a “cauldron” by bringing the special forces and reservists who are already running out of special forces and reservists in the country to Avdiivka, there is a threat that the city will repeat the fate of Bakhmut. And with the loss of Avdiivka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lose the opportunity to put pressure on Donetsk, moreover, the front risks crumbling until the loss of the entire left bank of Ukraine.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20188
Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2023 18:54 utc | 77
Ukraine is experiencing tension amid “extremely fierce” fighting in Avdiivka. Thus, against the backdrop of the need to support the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the south of the country, the Ukrainian authorities completely missed Avdiivka, did not carry out a rotation and ignored the problem of ammunition shortages, despite the alarming intelligence received from there.
Meanwhile, Avdeevka, located south of battle-ravaged Bakhmut, has long been a target of Russian forces and the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in this direction has become the largest offensive operation since the beginning of full-scale military operations. Moreover, military analysts are already talking about the “Avdiivka loop” – the city is surrounded on all sides with the exception of the western side, which is why the threat of a “cauldron” for fifteen thousand Ukrainian soldiers is becoming more and more real.
And although the Ukrainian command is now trying with all its might to prevent a “cauldron” by bringing the special forces and reservists who are already running out of special forces and reservists in the country to Avdiivka, there is a threat that the city will repeat the fate of Bakhmut. And with the loss of Avdiivka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lose the opportunity to put pressure on Donetsk, moreover, the front risks crumbling until the loss of the entire left bank of Ukraine.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20188
Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2023 18:54 utc | 78
The new elite of Ukraine are the military commissars, who created hundreds of corruption schemes to make money on mobilization.
NAPC reports that it has discovered signs of illegal enrichment from the head of the Malinovsky TCC of Odessa, Vyacheslav Kushnerov, amounting to almost 47 million UAH. The case has been transferred to the police.
In May 2022, a military commissar and his wife bought an apartment in Odessa with an area of 111.1 square meters worth 600 thousand hryvnia, which was sold a year later for 7.56 million UAH.
His wife also purchased a Toyota Highlander worth almost 1.9 million UAH, which was later sold for 2 million UAH.
In the same year, the military commissar’s mother gave her son a residential building near Odessa with outbuildings with a total area of 259.2 square meters, the cost of which is estimated at one million hryvnia. NAPC found that the income she received over the past 22 years was significantly less than the value of the gift.
Over the past few years, the military commissar’s mother-in-law has become the owner of an apartment near Odessa for more than 300 thousand UAH, as well as a Mercedes-Benz GLS 400 car for 420 thousand UAH. Although on average such a car costs more than 5 million UAH.
Even earlier, the military commissar’s mother-in-law bought a Mercedes-Benz GLC 220D worth 1.4 million UAH, which she later resold to her daughter for 1.5 million UAH.
In August 2022, members of the military commissar’s family gave each other money totaling 30 million UAH.
The son of a military commissar became the owner of an apartment with an area of 55.8 square meters in Odessa worth almost half a million hryvnia and a Mercedes-Benz Sprinter 511 car for almost half a million hryvnia, also without legal funds for this.
In all these actions, the NAPC sees signs of legal fiction by overstating real income and understating real expenses.
Kushnerov himself refused to comment to NAPC.
A similar situation exists throughout the country, but so far the authorities are pinpointing military commissars, which looks like work for the public, and not a real fight against corruption.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20189
Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2023 18:55 utc | 79
The new elite of Ukraine are the military commissars, who created hundreds of corruption schemes to make money on mobilization.
NAPC reports that it has discovered signs of illegal enrichment from the head of the Malinovsky TCC of Odessa, Vyacheslav Kushnerov, amounting to almost 47 million UAH. The case has been transferred to the police.
In May 2022, a military commissar and his wife bought an apartment in Odessa with an area of 111.1 square meters worth 600 thousand hryvnia, which was sold a year later for 7.56 million UAH.
His wife also purchased a Toyota Highlander worth almost 1.9 million UAH, which was later sold for 2 million UAH.
In the same year, the military commissar’s mother gave her son a residential building near Odessa with outbuildings with a total area of 259.2 square meters, the cost of which is estimated at one million hryvnia. NAPC found that the income she received over the past 22 years was significantly less than the value of the gift.
Over the past few years, the military commissar’s mother-in-law has become the owner of an apartment near Odessa for more than 300 thousand UAH, as well as a Mercedes-Benz GLS 400 car for 420 thousand UAH. Although on average such a car costs more than 5 million UAH.
Even earlier, the military commissar’s mother-in-law bought a Mercedes-Benz GLC 220D worth 1.4 million UAH, which she later resold to her daughter for 1.5 million UAH.
In August 2022, members of the military commissar’s family gave each other money totaling 30 million UAH.
The son of a military commissar became the owner of an apartment with an area of 55.8 square meters in Odessa worth almost half a million hryvnia and a Mercedes-Benz Sprinter 511 car for almost half a million hryvnia, also without legal funds for this.
In all these actions, the NAPC sees signs of legal fiction by overstating real income and understating real expenses.
Kushnerov himself refused to comment to NAPC.
A similar situation exists throughout the country, but so far the authorities are pinpointing military commissars, which looks like work for the public, and not a real fight against corruption.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20189
Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2023 18:55 utc | 80
Posted by: Comandante | Oct 19 2023 18:35 utc | 37
They have been sitting in those trenches despite a massive inferiority in artillery fires for a year and a half now, and held their positions in most places, even when RU has invested great effort to digging them out (Kupyansk, Ugledar, Marinka). With half a million KIA, it doesn’t follow that only 2% are highly motivated. The suicide attackers would have been depleted long ago.
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 18:55 utc | 81
Posted by: Comandante | Oct 19 2023 18:35 utc | 37
They have been sitting in those trenches despite a massive inferiority in artillery fires for a year and a half now, and held their positions in most places, even when RU has invested great effort to digging them out (Kupyansk, Ugledar, Marinka). With half a million KIA, it doesn’t follow that only 2% are highly motivated. The suicide attackers would have been depleted long ago.
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 18:55 utc | 82
“They have been sitting in those trenches despite a massive inferiority in artillery fires for a year and a half now, and held their positions in most places, even when RU has invested great effort to digging them out (Kupyansk, Ugledar, Marinka). With half a million KIA, it doesn’t follow that only 2% are highly motivated. The suicide attackers would have been depleted long ago.”
Umm they are sitting in the trenches because the barrier troops are warching behind them.
Try to run and bye bye
Posted by: Comandante | Oct 19 2023 18:58 utc | 83
“They have been sitting in those trenches despite a massive inferiority in artillery fires for a year and a half now, and held their positions in most places, even when RU has invested great effort to digging them out (Kupyansk, Ugledar, Marinka). With half a million KIA, it doesn’t follow that only 2% are highly motivated. The suicide attackers would have been depleted long ago.”
Umm they are sitting in the trenches because the barrier troops are warching behind them.
Try to run and bye bye
Posted by: Comandante | Oct 19 2023 18:58 utc | 84
Our source reports that there is a high risk of creating an “Avdeevka stranglehold” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which the Russians are implementing to gradually encircle the urban agglomeration and one of the most protected territories of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donbass direction.
Constant Russian aerial bombing, artillery shelling and attacks on the logistics infrastructure of Ukraine can create a shortage of equipment and manpower in this area.
Bankovaya understands that this sector is the most significant, but the transfer of large forces to this direction puts an end to any offensive operations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
A difficult choice that Bankova will have to make in the near future.
Our source in the OP said that Zelensky at headquarters demanded that Zaluzhny hold Avdiivka by any means.
Bankova understands that we will not survive a second Bakhmut, and the loss of a strategic city could put an end to Ukraine’s demands for increased military and financial support from the West.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20190
Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2023 18:58 utc | 85
Our source reports that there is a high risk of creating an “Avdeevka stranglehold” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which the Russians are implementing to gradually encircle the urban agglomeration and one of the most protected territories of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donbass direction.
Constant Russian aerial bombing, artillery shelling and attacks on the logistics infrastructure of Ukraine can create a shortage of equipment and manpower in this area.
Bankovaya understands that this sector is the most significant, but the transfer of large forces to this direction puts an end to any offensive operations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
A difficult choice that Bankova will have to make in the near future.
Our source in the OP said that Zelensky at headquarters demanded that Zaluzhny hold Avdiivka by any means.
Bankova understands that we will not survive a second Bakhmut, and the loss of a strategic city could put an end to Ukraine’s demands for increased military and financial support from the West.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20190
Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2023 18:58 utc | 86
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 15:57 utc | 5
Thus you did not speak to the clown, nor to his wife, nor to all those who bought real estates in foreign countries.
I have the addresses of three of them who bought a building in Gstaad, Switzerland (more than 8 millions SwissFR each).
Also you did not speak to those who are kidnapped in the streets to be sent to the killing fields.
You did not speak to those who are trying to flee away from the country.
You did not speak to those who pay lots of money to avoid been sent to the army.
So to whom did you speak?
To the banderites?
Many of them are staying behind, and will shoot the servivemen who would retreat or surrender.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 19 2023 19:03 utc | 87
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 15:57 utc | 5
Thus you did not speak to the clown, nor to his wife, nor to all those who bought real estates in foreign countries.
I have the addresses of three of them who bought a building in Gstaad, Switzerland (more than 8 millions SwissFR each).
Also you did not speak to those who are kidnapped in the streets to be sent to the killing fields.
You did not speak to those who are trying to flee away from the country.
You did not speak to those who pay lots of money to avoid been sent to the army.
So to whom did you speak?
To the banderites?
Many of them are staying behind, and will shoot the servivemen who would retreat or surrender.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 19 2023 19:03 utc | 88
Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2023 18:58 utc | 43
“we will not survive a second Bakhmut” What does that mean? They will not survive another battle where they lose massive reserves, or they will not survive losing the city?
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 19:03 utc | 89
Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2023 18:58 utc | 43
“we will not survive a second Bakhmut” What does that mean? They will not survive another battle where they lose massive reserves, or they will not survive losing the city?
Posted by: catdog | Oct 19 2023 19:03 utc | 90
My personal take on the start of the Ukraine war is that NATO used its proxy Ukraine to goad Russia into a pre-emptive strike. Why? Firstly the overall objective was to bring Russia down and effect regime change – via sanctions and economic/media/information warfare as clearly Ukraine had never a hope ever of achieving a military victory. Such an outcome would allow the USA/NATO to divide up and loot Russia, and thus gain access to its oil/space/raw materials and at the same time encircle China – the main long term enemy.
Ukraine massed (some say) 65,000 troop on the borders of the LPR/DPR and increased shelling of civillians 10 folds in the two weeks beforehand. This was done just before the 2022 spring Raputitsa so Russia would have an opportunity to attack just before their highly mechanised forces became road bound as a result of the mud. Two or three weeks maximum before operations literally bogged down. Indeed at the time I thought the crisis was over as Russia would be fools to attack at that time of year.
Russia IMHO was gambling on a “shock and awe” type situation where Ukraine would back down. And they nearly did. But Boris Johnson put paid to that idea. A clever man but not one to do his homework, he clearly was briefed that (a) the Russian forces were in fact quite small, (b) Ukraine could mobilise c 700,000 men, and (c) the infantry light RF could make no real progress against the UAF in the mud and through mines and fortifications. Which is pretty much what occurred. Not to mention a fake set of peace talks which fooled Russia into withdrawing from key areas.
Ukraine was persauded that the West would support it and re-arm it, and that economic sanctions and a media blitz would result in regime change in Russia – all it needed to do was fight on. It believed its own BS with the so called Kherson and Kharkov victories last year at this time. It is led by idiots and compromised ones at that.
Well it seems to me that all sides miscalculated. The USA/NATO thought they could weaken Russia so it would crumble. Not so, it is now stronger, and the West has badly weakened itself. Russia believed it has a limited military operation in progress when it turned out it was fighting an existential war for its survival. Ukraine thought it might win but is instead now on life support, and the switch is being turned off.
All the above greatly simplified but is what I broadly consider is close to the truth. A monumental FU by everyone involved. Out of it all though, there is only one clear winner. Answers on a postcard.
Posted by: marcjf | Oct 19 2023 19:04 utc | 91
My personal take on the start of the Ukraine war is that NATO used its proxy Ukraine to goad Russia into a pre-emptive strike. Why? Firstly the overall objective was to bring Russia down and effect regime change – via sanctions and economic/media/information warfare as clearly Ukraine had never a hope ever of achieving a military victory. Such an outcome would allow the USA/NATO to divide up and loot Russia, and thus gain access to its oil/space/raw materials and at the same time encircle China – the main long term enemy.
Ukraine massed (some say) 65,000 troop on the borders of the LPR/DPR and increased shelling of civillians 10 folds in the two weeks beforehand. This was done just before the 2022 spring Raputitsa so Russia would have an opportunity to attack just before their highly mechanised forces became road bound as a result of the mud. Two or three weeks maximum before operations literally bogged down. Indeed at the time I thought the crisis was over as Russia would be fools to attack at that time of year.
Russia IMHO was gambling on a “shock and awe” type situation where Ukraine would back down. And they nearly did. But Boris Johnson put paid to that idea. A clever man but not one to do his homework, he clearly was briefed that (a) the Russian forces were in fact quite small, (b) Ukraine could mobilise c 700,000 men, and (c) the infantry light RF could make no real progress against the UAF in the mud and through mines and fortifications. Which is pretty much what occurred. Not to mention a fake set of peace talks which fooled Russia into withdrawing from key areas.
Ukraine was persauded that the West would support it and re-arm it, and that economic sanctions and a media blitz would result in regime change in Russia – all it needed to do was fight on. It believed its own BS with the so called Kherson and Kharkov victories last year at this time. It is led by idiots and compromised ones at that.
Well it seems to me that all sides miscalculated. The USA/NATO thought they could weaken Russia so it would crumble. Not so, it is now stronger, and the West has badly weakened itself. Russia believed it has a limited military operation in progress when it turned out it was fighting an existential war for its survival. Ukraine thought it might win but is instead now on life support, and the switch is being turned off.
All the above greatly simplified but is what I broadly consider is close to the truth. A monumental FU by everyone involved. Out of it all though, there is only one clear winner. Answers on a postcard.
Posted by: marcjf | Oct 19 2023 19:04 utc | 92
Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2023 18:58 utc | 43
Sooner or later Avdieievka will fall like Artiomovsk before. Meat grinder. Once again. No hurry. They are trapped in their bunkers.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 19 2023 19:06 utc | 93
Posted by: Down South | Oct 19 2023 18:58 utc | 43
Sooner or later Avdieievka will fall like Artiomovsk before. Meat grinder. Once again. No hurry. They are trapped in their bunkers.
Posted by: Naive | Oct 19 2023 19:06 utc | 94
Well it seems to me that all sides miscalculated. The USA/NATO thought they could weaken Russia so it would crumble. Not so, it is now stronger, and the West has badly weakened itself. Russia believed it has a limited military operation in progress when it turned out it was fighting an existential war for its survival. Ukraine thought it might win but is instead now on life support, and the switch is being turned off.
All the above greatly simplified but is what I broadly consider is close to the truth. A monumental FU by everyone involved. Out of it all though, there is only one clear winner. Answers on a postcard.
Posted by: marcjf | Oct 19 2023 19:04 utc | 46
wouldn’t change a word
Posted by: newbie | Oct 19 2023 19:11 utc | 95
Well it seems to me that all sides miscalculated. The USA/NATO thought they could weaken Russia so it would crumble. Not so, it is now stronger, and the West has badly weakened itself. Russia believed it has a limited military operation in progress when it turned out it was fighting an existential war for its survival. Ukraine thought it might win but is instead now on life support, and the switch is being turned off.
All the above greatly simplified but is what I broadly consider is close to the truth. A monumental FU by everyone involved. Out of it all though, there is only one clear winner. Answers on a postcard.
Posted by: marcjf | Oct 19 2023 19:04 utc | 46
wouldn’t change a word
Posted by: newbie | Oct 19 2023 19:11 utc | 96
@ Mike R, §35:
Yes, the fanaticism of the young is thanks to a decade´s brainwashing by BBC ´Media Action` which will, doubtless, have concentrated on the schools and education system, and means there´s a generation that believes Valkyries will descend and take them to Valhalla: little different from the jihadis and their 70 virgins, thanks to the BBC. This an evil action of the UK Foreign Office, basically poisoning and perverting a generation of kids beyond hope of repair. It should be a crime and the BBC prosecuted – and the Foreign Office thrown in The Tower.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 19 2023 19:12 utc | 97
@ Mike R, §35:
Yes, the fanaticism of the young is thanks to a decade´s brainwashing by BBC ´Media Action` which will, doubtless, have concentrated on the schools and education system, and means there´s a generation that believes Valkyries will descend and take them to Valhalla: little different from the jihadis and their 70 virgins, thanks to the BBC. This an evil action of the UK Foreign Office, basically poisoning and perverting a generation of kids beyond hope of repair. It should be a crime and the BBC prosecuted – and the Foreign Office thrown in The Tower.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 19 2023 19:12 utc | 98
It’s probably fair to say that AFU transferred enough stuff to stabilize its front in Avdeevka. RUAF will also take it slow and cautious because the deeply built defense structures. However, it simply means the balance of power will once again be determined by artillery, drones and reconnaissance of enemy positions and logistics.
But, if you zoom a bit further from Avdeevka and don’t focus too much on it. You see AFU launched a crossing over Dnieper in the Kherson area with 4 marine brigades and bunch of territory defense forces. Now there was a report saying those marine brigades (35, 36, 37, 38th) were deployed back to either Rabotyne or Avdeevka. Apparently AFU was kicked out of Pischichevki and their Verbove assaults seem to be very costly as usual.
While the Russian army was pushing Ukrainian troops north with small attacks in the Zaporozhye region, last night the Ukrainian army launched a surprise attack in the Orekhov-Rabotino sector, supported by large numbers of armoured vehicles
Ukrainian military personnel, recorded by thermal imaging cameras, were destroyed by intense artillery fire and ATGM and armoured fighting vehicle shots, and some of them were taken prisoner.
The Russian army has increased its activity in the northern and southern directions, which in recent days has slowed down in the Avdeevka area.
After the sudden offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces transferred the 35th, 36th, 37th and 38th separate marine brigades from the Zaporozhye region to Avdiivka, and when activity at the front decreased, they were sent to Kherson at the request of Great Britain.
Since the beginning of the week, these brigades have been largely bled dry in attempts to cross the Dnieper and gain a foothold on the left bank.
While the Russian Armed Forces carried out small attacks in the north of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian offensive in the south, which had been going on for five months, began to slow down more and more.
In the Oskol area, the 44th separate artillery brigade received heavy blows from gliding bombs and was withdrawn from the battle. The 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade actually mutinied because it was exhausted by heavy losses, despite constant reinforcements for six months, and refused to fight.
It is useless to refuse to fight; military counterintelligence arrests the instigators and sends personnel to attack in the most dangerous places, leaving the military personnel with little choice.
Translated from Militarist
(https://t.me/infantmilitario/110531)
———–
❗️ (https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/10/20231010124103-8acea824.jpg) 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Battle of Avdeevka: Fighting over the mining heap
situation as of 20.00 October 19, 2023
Around the Avdeevsky fortified area, after several days of relative calm, Russian troops, after artillery preparation, resumed the assault on Ukrainian positions in several areas.
🔻On the northern flank, fighters of the Russian Armed Forces, as a result of fierce battles, were able to completely occupy the most important stronghold on the mining spoil heap. The AFU, under the cover of tank fire, retreated behind the railway track. Now the positions are being cleared.
▪️ After the initial push to Berdychi, the AFU transferred several battalions of the 31st and 110th Mechanized Brigade to strengthen the lines. This allowed the enemy to push the Russian Armed Forces towards the railway. The line of control runs along it.
🔻Also, units of the Russian army carried out an offensive in the south of Avdeevka for several days. During the attack, with the support of artillery, it was possible to advance from the Avdeevskaya ring road to the 450 km railway station.
❗️The Russian Armed Forces near Avdeevka continues in a systematic manner without drastic and hasty actions to save the lives of personnel. The enemy transferred a large number of forces and means to stabilize the front.
At the same time, rather suspicious activity of the AFU is also noted in Pervomaisky. Mechanized groups, presumably the 59th Mechanized Motorized Brigade, are being brought into the village. Judging by the movements, the AFU want to attack the Vodyane-Pesky line from the flank while the Russian Armed Forces are distracted by the offensive.
(https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/11/20231011002821-32c13147.jpg)
#Avdeevka #digest #Donetsk #map #Russia #Ukraine
(https://t.me/rybar/53411)
“>https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/87430
){kind=link}
){kind=link}
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 19 2023 19:14 utc | 99
It’s probably fair to say that AFU transferred enough stuff to stabilize its front in Avdeevka. RUAF will also take it slow and cautious because the deeply built defense structures. However, it simply means the balance of power will once again be determined by artillery, drones and reconnaissance of enemy positions and logistics.
But, if you zoom a bit further from Avdeevka and don’t focus too much on it. You see AFU launched a crossing over Dnieper in the Kherson area with 4 marine brigades and bunch of territory defense forces. Now there was a report saying those marine brigades (35, 36, 37, 38th) were deployed back to either Rabotyne or Avdeevka. Apparently AFU was kicked out of Pischichevki and their Verbove assaults seem to be very costly as usual.
While the Russian army was pushing Ukrainian troops north with small attacks in the Zaporozhye region, last night the Ukrainian army launched a surprise attack in the Orekhov-Rabotino sector, supported by large numbers of armoured vehicles
Ukrainian military personnel, recorded by thermal imaging cameras, were destroyed by intense artillery fire and ATGM and armoured fighting vehicle shots, and some of them were taken prisoner.
The Russian army has increased its activity in the northern and southern directions, which in recent days has slowed down in the Avdeevka area.
After the sudden offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces transferred the 35th, 36th, 37th and 38th separate marine brigades from the Zaporozhye region to Avdiivka, and when activity at the front decreased, they were sent to Kherson at the request of Great Britain.
Since the beginning of the week, these brigades have been largely bled dry in attempts to cross the Dnieper and gain a foothold on the left bank.
While the Russian Armed Forces carried out small attacks in the north of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian offensive in the south, which had been going on for five months, began to slow down more and more.
In the Oskol area, the 44th separate artillery brigade received heavy blows from gliding bombs and was withdrawn from the battle. The 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade actually mutinied because it was exhausted by heavy losses, despite constant reinforcements for six months, and refused to fight.
It is useless to refuse to fight; military counterintelligence arrests the instigators and sends personnel to attack in the most dangerous places, leaving the military personnel with little choice.
Translated from Militarist
(https://t.me/infantmilitario/110531)
———–
❗️ (https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/10/20231010124103-8acea824.jpg) 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Battle of Avdeevka: Fighting over the mining heap
situation as of 20.00 October 19, 2023
Around the Avdeevsky fortified area, after several days of relative calm, Russian troops, after artillery preparation, resumed the assault on Ukrainian positions in several areas.
🔻On the northern flank, fighters of the Russian Armed Forces, as a result of fierce battles, were able to completely occupy the most important stronghold on the mining spoil heap. The AFU, under the cover of tank fire, retreated behind the railway track. Now the positions are being cleared.
▪️ After the initial push to Berdychi, the AFU transferred several battalions of the 31st and 110th Mechanized Brigade to strengthen the lines. This allowed the enemy to push the Russian Armed Forces towards the railway. The line of control runs along it.
🔻Also, units of the Russian army carried out an offensive in the south of Avdeevka for several days. During the attack, with the support of artillery, it was possible to advance from the Avdeevskaya ring road to the 450 km railway station.
❗️The Russian Armed Forces near Avdeevka continues in a systematic manner without drastic and hasty actions to save the lives of personnel. The enemy transferred a large number of forces and means to stabilize the front.
At the same time, rather suspicious activity of the AFU is also noted in Pervomaisky. Mechanized groups, presumably the 59th Mechanized Motorized Brigade, are being brought into the village. Judging by the movements, the AFU want to attack the Vodyane-Pesky line from the flank while the Russian Armed Forces are distracted by the offensive.
(https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/11/20231011002821-32c13147.jpg)
#Avdeevka #digest #Donetsk #map #Russia #Ukraine
(https://t.me/rybar/53411)
“>https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/87430
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 19 2023 19:14 utc | 100