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October 15, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-239
Comments
Depopulating Gaza, trying to finish Syria and Lebanon and making at least a dent in Iran is going to eat a prodigious amount of ordnance.
Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 17 2023 9:24 utc | 501
Depopulating Gaza, trying to finish Syria and Lebanon and making at least a dent in Iran is going to eat a prodigious amount of ordnance.
Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 17 2023 9:24 utc | 502
251
„…your bomber fleet going down in flames…“
There is , “no free chicken” – a phrase implying that armies need to learn lessons through trial and error.
U didnt even try it and expect such a scenario?
Ukies sending every day DRGs, fighter jets, helicopters
Imagine they would follow ur motto!?
„…well attacking roads is basically a waste of ordnance..“
Why roads?
Attack EVERY truck driving on roads from western partners borders in direction of Lviv, Kiev or Odessa
No matter which tables the truck has or what the truck is loading
Behind the so called humanitarian trucks is always a truck with military equipment
After a while nobody wants to drive anymore such kamikaze trucks respectively transports
Send Geraniums or Lancet or FPV drones on daily hunting every truck passing western borders
Look at the Border of Rafah
500-600 trucks parking
Nobody risking to enter Gaza
Israel knows exactly that every 2nd truck is full with armors & ammonition for Hamas
Russia didnt even tried to block border crossings in the west
But thats Putin style
Furthermore close the airspace over Ukraine or take out transport flights to Ukraine
Posted by: tesla | Oct 17 2023 9:40 utc | 503
251
„…your bomber fleet going down in flames…“
There is , “no free chicken” – a phrase implying that armies need to learn lessons through trial and error.
U didnt even try it and expect such a scenario?
Ukies sending every day DRGs, fighter jets, helicopters
Imagine they would follow ur motto!?
„…well attacking roads is basically a waste of ordnance..“
Why roads?
Attack EVERY truck driving on roads from western partners borders in direction of Lviv, Kiev or Odessa
No matter which tables the truck has or what the truck is loading
Behind the so called humanitarian trucks is always a truck with military equipment
After a while nobody wants to drive anymore such kamikaze trucks respectively transports
Send Geraniums or Lancet or FPV drones on daily hunting every truck passing western borders
Look at the Border of Rafah
500-600 trucks parking
Nobody risking to enter Gaza
Israel knows exactly that every 2nd truck is full with armors & ammonition for Hamas
Russia didnt even tried to block border crossings in the west
But thats Putin style
Furthermore close the airspace over Ukraine or take out transport flights to Ukraine
Posted by: tesla | Oct 17 2023 9:40 utc | 504
Imagine they would follow ur motto!?
Posted by: tesla | Oct 17 2023 9:40 utc | 260
Ukraine attacks russian rear with standoff missiles and drones exactly like RU. They do not send SU-24s to carpet bomb Belgorod exactly for the same reasons.
DRGs are ukrainians and thus disposable.
Russian ISR and Lancet range cannot deal with trucks around Lviv.
Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 17 2023 9:56 utc | 505
Imagine they would follow ur motto!?
Posted by: tesla | Oct 17 2023 9:40 utc | 260
Ukraine attacks russian rear with standoff missiles and drones exactly like RU. They do not send SU-24s to carpet bomb Belgorod exactly for the same reasons.
DRGs are ukrainians and thus disposable.
Russian ISR and Lancet range cannot deal with trucks around Lviv.
Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 17 2023 9:56 utc | 506
If you could get some loitering ammunition class drones in the enemy rear with real time command/data feed locomotives and transport planes would be a better target than cheap trucks anyway. But it is not possible.
Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 17 2023 10:05 utc | 507
If you could get some loitering ammunition class drones in the enemy rear with real time command/data feed locomotives and transport planes would be a better target than cheap trucks anyway. But it is not possible.
Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 17 2023 10:05 utc | 508
🇷🇺🇺🇦 According to preliminary information, a night strike on the airfield in Berdyansk was carried out by American ATACMS ballistic missiles. This is indicated by the trajectory and speed of air targets arriving at the object.
Contrary to official statements by Western politicians and the media, the first batch of missiles of this type was delivered to Ukrainian territory back in August. Apparently, the beginning of their use by Ukrainian formations will now be announced in the White House.
ATACMS have a shorter flight time than cruise missiles, making it more difficult to escape an attack. This will make certain adjustments in actions at different levels – something similar has already happened before after the enemy appeared with HIMARS and Storm Shadow.
As colleagues correctly note, ATACMS are not “wunderwaffes” – air defense will learn to shoot them down, and other measures will greatly reduce the effectiveness of their use. The question is how quickly it will be possible to adapt to their use by Ukrainian formations.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 17 2023 10:42 utc | 509
🇷🇺🇺🇦 According to preliminary information, a night strike on the airfield in Berdyansk was carried out by American ATACMS ballistic missiles. This is indicated by the trajectory and speed of air targets arriving at the object.
Contrary to official statements by Western politicians and the media, the first batch of missiles of this type was delivered to Ukrainian territory back in August. Apparently, the beginning of their use by Ukrainian formations will now be announced in the White House.
ATACMS have a shorter flight time than cruise missiles, making it more difficult to escape an attack. This will make certain adjustments in actions at different levels – something similar has already happened before after the enemy appeared with HIMARS and Storm Shadow.
As colleagues correctly note, ATACMS are not “wunderwaffes” – air defense will learn to shoot them down, and other measures will greatly reduce the effectiveness of their use. The question is how quickly it will be possible to adapt to their use by Ukrainian formations.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 17 2023 10:42 utc | 510
262
the trucks re not cheap at all!
I see them every day queues of trucks from border to the town of Mihalovce
Every day Long queues approx 200-300 trucks from all European Union from center of Mihalovce along the road E 50 to border with Ukraine (Ushgorod)
Everybody can see the loading of trucks:
Dismantled Humvees & other vehicles
Howitzers, missles, ammunition’s, …..
THIS RE NOT CHEAP TRUCKS!
Mihalovce was before SMO a classic poor boring east European town
Today its a hub and training center for Ukraine
Posted by: Tesla | Oct 17 2023 11:07 utc | 511
262
the trucks re not cheap at all!
I see them every day queues of trucks from border to the town of Mihalovce
Every day Long queues approx 200-300 trucks from all European Union from center of Mihalovce along the road E 50 to border with Ukraine (Ushgorod)
Everybody can see the loading of trucks:
Dismantled Humvees & other vehicles
Howitzers, missles, ammunition’s, …..
THIS RE NOT CHEAP TRUCKS!
Mihalovce was before SMO a classic poor boring east European town
Today its a hub and training center for Ukraine
Posted by: Tesla | Oct 17 2023 11:07 utc | 512
Posted by: Down South | Oct 17 2023 10:42 utc | 263
Adaptation to conserve precious aviation assets is one thing but the ability to fire the same anti-armour missiles from a much cheaper drone platform would reduce operational dependence on low volume, high value aircraft.
There was test footage ages ago of an RF drone firing a stock ATGM at a ground target but no subsequent reports of deployment.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 17 2023 11:07 utc | 513
Posted by: Down South | Oct 17 2023 10:42 utc | 263
Adaptation to conserve precious aviation assets is one thing but the ability to fire the same anti-armour missiles from a much cheaper drone platform would reduce operational dependence on low volume, high value aircraft.
There was test footage ages ago of an RF drone firing a stock ATGM at a ground target but no subsequent reports of deployment.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 17 2023 11:07 utc | 514
@unimperator | Oct 16 2023 21:19 utc | 216
Everyone thinks that underground army bases are a tough nut to crack, as in Avdeevka, where the Ukies are all nicely dug in under concrete meters below ground. But the Vietnam war was decades ago, military improvements have been made since then, improvements which render deeply dug in underground forces moot. This is the reason why the Israelis know that they don’t have to take Gaza with boots on / in the ground, they can just bomb Gaza into oblivion, including the forces underground.
The method the Israelis want to use is basically big air dropped bombs. Big bombs create concussive blast waves which basically liquefy the bodily organs of people within a certain radius (my understanding of the matter). So they have no external damage, no shrapnel wounds, no limbs ripped off, but they are dead. Since micro / tactical nukes are not supposed to be used, the Israelis want to use some new jdam bombs which penetrate meters into the ground before exploding (from the Palestine threads). If the Israelis use these types of weapons, the underground fortifications in Gaza are rendered obsolete. But if the Israelis don’t use these types of weapons, Israel will never be able to take Gaza because too many of their soldiers will die in the ground assault.
With Avdeevka in Ukraine the situation is similar for Russian. To storm Avdeevka would result in too many casualties. So Russia needs to use its massive glide bombs to better effect. Those FABulous bombs can kill the Ukrainian forces underground in their concrete fortifications. But Russia needs to know before hand where the underground fortifications are. Observation over time should have given them a good idea of the location of bases, and ground penetrating radar an even better idea. Then everything can be modeled on computer and with physical models made with paper and matchsticks WW2 style and so on. Then glide bombs can destroy everything underground up till the very city limits itself.
Within the city limits, between the apartment blocks, only ground penetrating big bombs will work against the underground structures, but Russia would not want to take that route as the civilian casualties would be tremendous. Only house to house room to room fighting can do the job then, ala Wagner style, with its high cost to the attacking forces.
So underground fortifications are not the problem they used to be anymore, it just depends on what level of force the attacking forces are willing to use, and that depends on whether or not the attacking force cares about the people they will be blowing up- whether they consider them brothers or just human animals.
Posted by: gT | Oct 17 2023 11:13 utc | 515
@unimperator | Oct 16 2023 21:19 utc | 216
Everyone thinks that underground army bases are a tough nut to crack, as in Avdeevka, where the Ukies are all nicely dug in under concrete meters below ground. But the Vietnam war was decades ago, military improvements have been made since then, improvements which render deeply dug in underground forces moot. This is the reason why the Israelis know that they don’t have to take Gaza with boots on / in the ground, they can just bomb Gaza into oblivion, including the forces underground.
The method the Israelis want to use is basically big air dropped bombs. Big bombs create concussive blast waves which basically liquefy the bodily organs of people within a certain radius (my understanding of the matter). So they have no external damage, no shrapnel wounds, no limbs ripped off, but they are dead. Since micro / tactical nukes are not supposed to be used, the Israelis want to use some new jdam bombs which penetrate meters into the ground before exploding (from the Palestine threads). If the Israelis use these types of weapons, the underground fortifications in Gaza are rendered obsolete. But if the Israelis don’t use these types of weapons, Israel will never be able to take Gaza because too many of their soldiers will die in the ground assault.
With Avdeevka in Ukraine the situation is similar for Russian. To storm Avdeevka would result in too many casualties. So Russia needs to use its massive glide bombs to better effect. Those FABulous bombs can kill the Ukrainian forces underground in their concrete fortifications. But Russia needs to know before hand where the underground fortifications are. Observation over time should have given them a good idea of the location of bases, and ground penetrating radar an even better idea. Then everything can be modeled on computer and with physical models made with paper and matchsticks WW2 style and so on. Then glide bombs can destroy everything underground up till the very city limits itself.
Within the city limits, between the apartment blocks, only ground penetrating big bombs will work against the underground structures, but Russia would not want to take that route as the civilian casualties would be tremendous. Only house to house room to room fighting can do the job then, ala Wagner style, with its high cost to the attacking forces.
So underground fortifications are not the problem they used to be anymore, it just depends on what level of force the attacking forces are willing to use, and that depends on whether or not the attacking force cares about the people they will be blowing up- whether they consider them brothers or just human animals.
Posted by: gT | Oct 17 2023 11:13 utc | 516
the trucks re not cheap at all!
Posted by: Tesla | Oct 17 2023 11:07 utc | 264
Relative to others potential targets yes they are as well as easy to replace.
Beyond that they move which makes targeting problematic: one thing is to fire a Geran or a cruise at a trasformer or what have you, you fire at what are essentially fixed coordinates.
Hitting something that moves tens of kilometers between, for example, satellite passes is an entitely different problem.
Maybe eventually the whole apparatus necesssary will achieve sufficient range but for now it is what it is.
Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 17 2023 11:42 utc | 517
the trucks re not cheap at all!
Posted by: Tesla | Oct 17 2023 11:07 utc | 264
Relative to others potential targets yes they are as well as easy to replace.
Beyond that they move which makes targeting problematic: one thing is to fire a Geran or a cruise at a trasformer or what have you, you fire at what are essentially fixed coordinates.
Hitting something that moves tens of kilometers between, for example, satellite passes is an entitely different problem.
Maybe eventually the whole apparatus necesssary will achieve sufficient range but for now it is what it is.
Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 17 2023 11:42 utc | 518
What do people think?
Posted by: Julian | Oct 16 2023 11:02 utc | 167
I see, you omitted POLAND. I can’t understand why, considering POLAND is in the vanguard of the feckless Visegrád Group, boasted the highest 2022 avg. min wage of in the group, has evaded substantial EC infringement penalties, enjoys substantial income as US-DOD “trade partner” and “social dumping” in UK, is a net recipient of EU budget subsidies that EUCO €186B (e) fiscal commitment to UKRAINE will dilute, has not renounced either WWII reparation claims from DE or, ironically, restoration of POLAND’s “territorial integrity”. Do you expect the NEW! Tusk coalition to repair EU “cohesion” and FX value of the zloty?
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 17 2023 12:50 utc | 519
What do people think?
Posted by: Julian | Oct 16 2023 11:02 utc | 167
I see, you omitted POLAND. I can’t understand why, considering POLAND is in the vanguard of the feckless Visegrád Group, boasted the highest 2022 avg. min wage of in the group, has evaded substantial EC infringement penalties, enjoys substantial income as US-DOD “trade partner” and “social dumping” in UK, is a net recipient of EU budget subsidies that EUCO €186B (e) fiscal commitment to UKRAINE will dilute, has not renounced either WWII reparation claims from DE or, ironically, restoration of POLAND’s “territorial integrity”. Do you expect the NEW! Tusk coalition to repair EU “cohesion” and FX value of the zloty?
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 17 2023 12:50 utc | 520
Looks from the pics that a fair number of helicopters were lost at Berdyansk and Lugansk, while Russia hit half a dozen drones/aircraft? at Shkolny airport.
https://t.me/llordofwar/218610
re trucks, I assume the missiles to hit them are air-launched. Do Russia have anything where they could immediately call in a strike on a truck with, and does it make sense to hit a truck with such a missile unless you are certain there’s something very very expensive inside?
Satellite and other reconnaisance must be a whole military topic of its own. Presumably there are whole departments on either side devoted to analysing exactly when enemy sats are overhead/nearby and taking appropriate action (like moving stuff if possible). The US seem to have an advantage here in quantity at least.
Mr Musks millions of satellites – how easy would it be to move them into the line of sight of Russian satellites?
Did we see Iron Beam being deployed in Israel a day or two back? Seems to be a lot of funding in US/UK/EU looking at laser weapons.
No more kessel/cauldron please, I’ve been reading about them for 18 months and none have materialised yet.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 17 2023 13:00 utc | 521
Looks from the pics that a fair number of helicopters were lost at Berdyansk and Lugansk, while Russia hit half a dozen drones/aircraft? at Shkolny airport.
https://t.me/llordofwar/218610
re trucks, I assume the missiles to hit them are air-launched. Do Russia have anything where they could immediately call in a strike on a truck with, and does it make sense to hit a truck with such a missile unless you are certain there’s something very very expensive inside?
Satellite and other reconnaisance must be a whole military topic of its own. Presumably there are whole departments on either side devoted to analysing exactly when enemy sats are overhead/nearby and taking appropriate action (like moving stuff if possible). The US seem to have an advantage here in quantity at least.
Mr Musks millions of satellites – how easy would it be to move them into the line of sight of Russian satellites?
Did we see Iron Beam being deployed in Israel a day or two back? Seems to be a lot of funding in US/UK/EU looking at laser weapons.
No more kessel/cauldron please, I’ve been reading about them for 18 months and none have materialised yet.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 17 2023 13:00 utc | 522
Posted by: gT | Oct 17 2023 11:13 utc | 266
It takes a lot of time to pinpoint and recognize the underground structures. Obviously, once they are mapped out, it would be most cost-efficient to use a large bomber to carpet bomb gliding bunker busting bombs on those structures.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 17 2023 13:03 utc | 523
Posted by: gT | Oct 17 2023 11:13 utc | 266
It takes a lot of time to pinpoint and recognize the underground structures. Obviously, once they are mapped out, it would be most cost-efficient to use a large bomber to carpet bomb gliding bunker busting bombs on those structures.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 17 2023 13:03 utc | 524