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October 15, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-239
Comments
Posted by: Sandy Freeman | Oct 15 2023 21:20 utc | 100
There’s also the aspect that once you sustainably take something over, you will have to pay and take care of that area and its population. And most people in Ukraine hate Russians. I’m pretty sure, at this point Russia will be glad to let Poland have western Ukraine, but the truth is, no one actually wants western Ukraine. It will take several generations of dedicated re-education work to root out the nazism, even Poland doesn’t want them.
So this thing will go on until the body (Ukraine country) stops responding to the brains (Kiev regime).
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 15 2023 21:38 utc | 201
Posted by: Sandy Freeman | Oct 15 2023 21:20 utc | 100
There’s also the aspect that once you sustainably take something over, you will have to pay and take care of that area and its population. And most people in Ukraine hate Russians. I’m pretty sure, at this point Russia will be glad to let Poland have western Ukraine, but the truth is, no one actually wants western Ukraine. It will take several generations of dedicated re-education work to root out the nazism, even Poland doesn’t want them.
So this thing will go on until the body (Ukraine country) stops responding to the brains (Kiev regime).
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 15 2023 21:38 utc | 202
if a new mobilisation of 500000-1m…enough battledress uniforms… weapins rifles ammo.. helmets. the useless vests boots etc ..over recent months many had to buy their own .. and someone high up was arrested for fraudulent supply of such…
and how to train so many quickly…feed water and even move them around when so much supply transport decimated? Was not USA goung to suppky a lot more Marder type stuff .. is that the purpose?Russia said there were 15 training camps in EU…apart from the logistics of transport men there and back and we know training is quite inadequate…how many possibly are ready now to go to the lines? Not much mention of their “best” 82nd recently….
Posted by: Jo | Oct 15 2023 21:42 utc | 203
if a new mobilisation of 500000-1m…enough battledress uniforms… weapins rifles ammo.. helmets. the useless vests boots etc ..over recent months many had to buy their own .. and someone high up was arrested for fraudulent supply of such…
and how to train so many quickly…feed water and even move them around when so much supply transport decimated? Was not USA goung to suppky a lot more Marder type stuff .. is that the purpose?Russia said there were 15 training camps in EU…apart from the logistics of transport men there and back and we know training is quite inadequate…how many possibly are ready now to go to the lines? Not much mention of their “best” 82nd recently….
Posted by: Jo | Oct 15 2023 21:42 utc | 204
Has anyone learned what happened in the Gonzalo Lira case? I believe he was to go to trial in October.
Posted by: medo | Oct 15 2023 21:47 utc | 205
Has anyone learned what happened in the Gonzalo Lira case? I believe he was to go to trial in October.
Posted by: medo | Oct 15 2023 21:47 utc | 206
Dima, the analyst, warns about a huge Ukro operation across Dniepro.
How can such attack with 1 million man army be stopped?
Posted by: zorge | Oct 15 2023 20:21 utc | 81
###
Dima says a lot of things, mainly a lot of shit. He’s a fantasist, melodrama YT bloviard. He said Avdiivka would be in a cauldron and fall in 2 days after the first strikes. Besides, if Dima “knows” something, the MoD no doubt knows it too and have their own plans to resist such plans. Just take all those sit reps with much salt.
Posted by: Sandy Freeman | Oct 15 2023 21:48 utc | 207
Dima, the analyst, warns about a huge Ukro operation across Dniepro.
How can such attack with 1 million man army be stopped?
Posted by: zorge | Oct 15 2023 20:21 utc | 81
###
Dima says a lot of things, mainly a lot of shit. He’s a fantasist, melodrama YT bloviard. He said Avdiivka would be in a cauldron and fall in 2 days after the first strikes. Besides, if Dima “knows” something, the MoD no doubt knows it too and have their own plans to resist such plans. Just take all those sit reps with much salt.
Posted by: Sandy Freeman | Oct 15 2023 21:48 utc | 208
Re: Posted by: Lex | Oct 15 2023 15:55 utc | 34
Third, we probably need to take Putin at his word and that the withdrawal from around Kiev was a goodwill gesture to end the conflict via negotiation.
We should look at all Russia has done and is doing not with the idea that there is a “plan” that either succeeds or fails but that there is a general objective with a suite of options. Choosing from that suite is a matter of tactical and strategic context. The operation around Kiev almost certainly fits in that scenario.
H
After all this time – 8 years of conflict – to still be seeking negotiations with people who are NOT AGREEMENT CAPABLE beggars belief.
This strongly suggests they will try negotiations again – which would be a mistake.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 15 2023 21:53 utc | 209
Re: Posted by: Lex | Oct 15 2023 15:55 utc | 34
Third, we probably need to take Putin at his word and that the withdrawal from around Kiev was a goodwill gesture to end the conflict via negotiation.
We should look at all Russia has done and is doing not with the idea that there is a “plan” that either succeeds or fails but that there is a general objective with a suite of options. Choosing from that suite is a matter of tactical and strategic context. The operation around Kiev almost certainly fits in that scenario.
H
After all this time – 8 years of conflict – to still be seeking negotiations with people who are NOT AGREEMENT CAPABLE beggars belief.
This strongly suggests they will try negotiations again – which would be a mistake.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 15 2023 21:53 utc | 210
Posted by: Jo | Oct 15 2023 21:42 utc | 106
As I said previously, such a large untrained (in regards to military efficacy) force will inflict a defeat upon itself, as it struggles to carry out even the most basic logistical tasks required for an operational deployment, let alone conduct offensive/defensive combat missions. To expect this force then to undertake a riverine assault (even to be follow on forces after an initial bridgehead lodgement) is a criminal folly that might strain the UAF to breaking point with its civilian masters.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 15 2023 21:21 utc | 101
Who underestimated them? What more have they operationally achieved than a mediocre army with access to state of the art ISR and PGM’s could have done, that largely has sat behind fortifications years in the making? This war is already over bar the shooting, just as WW2 was in mid ‘44. The West’s focus on other conflict zones proves this reality, as does Zelensky’s increasingly Grofazian pronouncements about endless offensives and million strong folks armies.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 22:04 utc | 211
Posted by: Jo | Oct 15 2023 21:42 utc | 106
As I said previously, such a large untrained (in regards to military efficacy) force will inflict a defeat upon itself, as it struggles to carry out even the most basic logistical tasks required for an operational deployment, let alone conduct offensive/defensive combat missions. To expect this force then to undertake a riverine assault (even to be follow on forces after an initial bridgehead lodgement) is a criminal folly that might strain the UAF to breaking point with its civilian masters.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 15 2023 21:21 utc | 101
Who underestimated them? What more have they operationally achieved than a mediocre army with access to state of the art ISR and PGM’s could have done, that largely has sat behind fortifications years in the making? This war is already over bar the shooting, just as WW2 was in mid ‘44. The West’s focus on other conflict zones proves this reality, as does Zelensky’s increasingly Grofazian pronouncements about endless offensives and million strong folks armies.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 22:04 utc | 212
The US/UK fixation with Crimea was why the strategic objective of the SMO in its first phase had to be southern Ukraine and the land bridge. So regardless of what hopes for Kiev might be, it would always be a secondary priority. The southern operation was very successful and low cost, though it could be reasonably argued that Russia ran out of steam too early. Taking Zaporozhye and Nikolaev would have changed everything and put Russia in a much more advantageous position for the time period from then to now.
Posted by: Lex | Oct 15 2023 22:18 utc | 215
The US/UK fixation with Crimea was why the strategic objective of the SMO in its first phase had to be southern Ukraine and the land bridge. So regardless of what hopes for Kiev might be, it would always be a secondary priority. The southern operation was very successful and low cost, though it could be reasonably argued that Russia ran out of steam too early. Taking Zaporozhye and Nikolaev would have changed everything and put Russia in a much more advantageous position for the time period from then to now.
Posted by: Lex | Oct 15 2023 22:18 utc | 216
The slugfest continues. Ukraine forces are getting bodies from somewhere, even after the 2K Israeli’s left. So, trained insurgents coming in from somewhere lately. They’re losing equipment, but seem to have plenty of manpower.
Russia had the Coke plant. Then lost it. There seems to be a series of gains, then losses. A long war indeed.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 22:23 utc | 217
The slugfest continues. Ukraine forces are getting bodies from somewhere, even after the 2K Israeli’s left. So, trained insurgents coming in from somewhere lately. They’re losing equipment, but seem to have plenty of manpower.
Russia had the Coke plant. Then lost it. There seems to be a series of gains, then losses. A long war indeed.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 22:23 utc | 218
@pretzelattack: I tried to give you my rundown of the Jimmy Dore standup show, but I think b’s filters must have flushed it because of too many mentions of “va c c i n e”…at least that’s what I suspect.
TL/DR: It was actually funny.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 15 2023 22:25 utc | 219
@pretzelattack: I tried to give you my rundown of the Jimmy Dore standup show, but I think b’s filters must have flushed it because of too many mentions of “va c c i n e”…at least that’s what I suspect.
TL/DR: It was actually funny.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 15 2023 22:25 utc | 220
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 15 2023 22:25 utc | 114
Guess so! I’ll address it in another O/T. It was Ukraine related, so not off-topic, but whatever.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 15 2023 22:26 utc | 221
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 15 2023 22:25 utc | 114
Guess so! I’ll address it in another O/T. It was Ukraine related, so not off-topic, but whatever.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 15 2023 22:26 utc | 222
Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 15 2023 21:11 utc | 98
Wunderwaffles hahaha, thanks for that I really needed the laugh today!
Posted by: Peter Fenton | Oct 15 2023 22:29 utc | 223
Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 15 2023 21:11 utc | 98
Wunderwaffles hahaha, thanks for that I really needed the laugh today!
Posted by: Peter Fenton | Oct 15 2023 22:29 utc | 224
Time for my weekly, annoying reminder:
Ergodan has still not submitted any sort of legislation to the Turkish Parliament to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership. Further, I have seen zero talk thereof, indicating that it is dead for the foreseeable future.
This story has been lost of course in the ME events, but I am doing my public duty to remind that Erdo’s butt-whipping and humiliation of NATO stooges does not get memory-holed.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 15 2023 22:34 utc | 225
Time for my weekly, annoying reminder:
Ergodan has still not submitted any sort of legislation to the Turkish Parliament to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership. Further, I have seen zero talk thereof, indicating that it is dead for the foreseeable future.
This story has been lost of course in the ME events, but I am doing my public duty to remind that Erdo’s butt-whipping and humiliation of NATO stooges does not get memory-holed.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 15 2023 22:34 utc | 226
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 15 2023 22:34 utc | 117
I guess the Swedish membership application is on the backburner again after US shot down Turkish drones and Erdogan again blamed US for arming terrorist groups (YPG and SDF).
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 15 2023 22:45 utc | 227
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 15 2023 22:34 utc | 117
I guess the Swedish membership application is on the backburner again after US shot down Turkish drones and Erdogan again blamed US for arming terrorist groups (YPG and SDF).
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 15 2023 22:45 utc | 228
@Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 22:23 utc | 113
Russia had the Coke plant. Then lost it. There seems to be a series of gains, then losses. A long war indeed.
There are a number of incredibly heavily fortified areas that have been fought over since 2014, which include Avdiivka, Toretsk-NY agglomeration, Maryinka and Ugledar. The taking of these is a long and painful process but once they are gone, they are gone. There is nothing like them elsewhere in the Ukrainian defensive line. Also, the Ukrainians will continue their “no retreat” mantra, which will lead to massive losses on their side – including their remaining experienced cadres.
The Ukrainian collapse will happen, but until it does things will be slow and painful as Ukraine throws every body available into the fight. Russia is carrying out a successful version of Germany’s Verdun strategy, bleed the enemy white. In WW1, the Germans go too involved and forgot their main objective – ending up taking as many losses as the French. Russia is not making that mistake, with the loss ratio continuing to increase in their favour while the West slowly loses interest.
@Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 22:23 utc | 113
Russia had the Coke plant. Then lost it. There seems to be a series of gains, then losses. A long war indeed.
There are a number of incredibly heavily fortified areas that have been fought over since 2014, which include Avdiivka, Toretsk-NY agglomeration, Maryinka and Ugledar. The taking of these is a long and painful process but once they are gone, they are gone. There is nothing like them elsewhere in the Ukrainian defensive line. Also, the Ukrainians will continue their “no retreat” mantra, which will lead to massive losses on their side – including their remaining experienced cadres.
The Ukrainian collapse will happen, but until it does things will be slow and painful as Ukraine throws every body available into the fight. Russia is carrying out a successful version of Germany’s Verdun strategy, bleed the enemy white. In WW1, the Germans go too involved and forgot their main objective – ending up taking as many losses as the French. Russia is not making that mistake, with the loss ratio continuing to increase in their favour while the West slowly loses interest.
@Posted by: unimperator | Oct 15 2023 21:38 utc | 105
North West Ukraine is the problem, the south is much more ethnic Russian/Russian speaking. If Russia takes everything east of the Dneipr, plus the south and links up with the Hungarian Carpathian area (whi hate the Ukrainians) and Transnistria it will have a population which generally does not hate it, and many will support it. Then add in a massive reduction in corruption, pensions paid reliably at the Russian rate (twice the Ukrainian rate), new investment and rebuilding etc. and the population will quickly become supportive.
Yes, the Poles can have the Banderaland quagmire!
@Posted by: unimperator | Oct 15 2023 21:38 utc | 105
North West Ukraine is the problem, the south is much more ethnic Russian/Russian speaking. If Russia takes everything east of the Dneipr, plus the south and links up with the Hungarian Carpathian area (whi hate the Ukrainians) and Transnistria it will have a population which generally does not hate it, and many will support it. Then add in a massive reduction in corruption, pensions paid reliably at the Russian rate (twice the Ukrainian rate), new investment and rebuilding etc. and the population will quickly become supportive.
Yes, the Poles can have the Banderaland quagmire!
Posted by: Trincolo | Oct 15 2023 13:10 utc | 6
What do you mean by westerners “waking up”? Do you expect the most propagandized and brainwashed people on earth today to just snap out of it and go “oh wait, america did all this bad stuff, let’s kill everybody on Capitol hill!”
Now, if you mean the ruling class walking up, well, it’s literally in their interests not to.
Posted by: Scroab | Oct 15 2023 23:23 utc | 233
Posted by: Trincolo | Oct 15 2023 13:10 utc | 6
What do you mean by westerners “waking up”? Do you expect the most propagandized and brainwashed people on earth today to just snap out of it and go “oh wait, america did all this bad stuff, let’s kill everybody on Capitol hill!”
Now, if you mean the ruling class walking up, well, it’s literally in their interests not to.
Posted by: Scroab | Oct 15 2023 23:23 utc | 234
But yes, Ukraine forces were totally underestimated and they still have a big advantage in manpower in the war theater. So people counting them out are not looking at the reality of the situation. This war will take several years more.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 15 2023 21:21 utc | 101
Several years? Hmmm. The reality of the situation appears to be that military support for Ukraine from the West is rapidly ending. When the money and material spigot closes Ukraine will capitulate regardless of their troop numbers.
Posted by: UBAH | Oct 15 2023 23:28 utc | 235
But yes, Ukraine forces were totally underestimated and they still have a big advantage in manpower in the war theater. So people counting them out are not looking at the reality of the situation. This war will take several years more.
Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 15 2023 21:21 utc | 101
Several years? Hmmm. The reality of the situation appears to be that military support for Ukraine from the West is rapidly ending. When the money and material spigot closes Ukraine will capitulate regardless of their troop numbers.
Posted by: UBAH | Oct 15 2023 23:28 utc | 236
Posted by: Sandy Freeman | Oct 15 2023 21:32 utc | 104
Ukraine launches investigation against Oleksiy Arestovych over statement about choking women, Oct 13
…according to a statement by Inna Sovsun, an MP in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, who reported Arestovych to the authorities. The cause for this investigation stems from comments made by Arestovych during a private seminar in late September, with video footage of the seminar later being shared on the Palaye (Ukr. Палає; literally “Burning”) YouTube channel…
iirc, strana.ua has a file on this untimely indiscretion. Turns out misogyny is not a European value. He’s looking at 3 years in the pokey if convicted.
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 15 2023 23:35 utc | 237
Posted by: Sandy Freeman | Oct 15 2023 21:32 utc | 104
Ukraine launches investigation against Oleksiy Arestovych over statement about choking women, Oct 13
…according to a statement by Inna Sovsun, an MP in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, who reported Arestovych to the authorities. The cause for this investigation stems from comments made by Arestovych during a private seminar in late September, with video footage of the seminar later being shared on the Palaye (Ukr. Палає; literally “Burning”) YouTube channel…
iirc, strana.ua has a file on this untimely indiscretion. Turns out misogyny is not a European value. He’s looking at 3 years in the pokey if convicted.
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 15 2023 23:35 utc | 238
Fully agree with too cents on this one.
“Blow the dam further upstream.”
I said it months earlier. More than actual deaths which will be around 100 the real impact is on water supply which Ukraine is using as a weapon against ethnic Russians, destruction of electricity infrastructure, collapse of Kyiv, the requirement to find a new capital, flooding Kyiv bunkers and elimination of military and political leadership hiding in deep bunkers.
But Russia has to be careful to ensure water supply to Donbas and Luhansk which may also be affected.
Posted by: Jason | Oct 15 2023 23:37 utc | 239
Fully agree with too cents on this one.
“Blow the dam further upstream.”
I said it months earlier. More than actual deaths which will be around 100 the real impact is on water supply which Ukraine is using as a weapon against ethnic Russians, destruction of electricity infrastructure, collapse of Kyiv, the requirement to find a new capital, flooding Kyiv bunkers and elimination of military and political leadership hiding in deep bunkers.
But Russia has to be careful to ensure water supply to Donbas and Luhansk which may also be affected.
Posted by: Jason | Oct 15 2023 23:37 utc | 240
Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 19:33 utc | 76
Armchair warriors often fail when we’ve been poisoned by these fairy tales. Lawyers clean up all details since daddy had to lie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6se4NDntoAk
Have you ever been to wary billy?
Posted by: bubbles | Oct 15 2023 23:40 utc | 241
Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 19:33 utc | 76
Armchair warriors often fail when we’ve been poisoned by these fairy tales. Lawyers clean up all details since daddy had to lie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6se4NDntoAk
Have you ever been to wary billy?
Posted by: bubbles | Oct 15 2023 23:40 utc | 242
NATO is now donating weapons to Ukraine not to defend itself but to attack Russian military assets.
Attacks on Crimea and around the Black Sea were all carried out by NATO. Not Ukraine. Attackers simply used the Ukraine excuse.
Same goes for Nord Stream.
Russia must provide sea mines and sea drones to enemies of NATO. Let them take it from there. NATO has been battered hard from wars against rebel groups. Never won any. This is NATO’s biggest nightmare – sea borne attacks by non-state actors.
Russia should also stop supporting anti piracy operations around the Horn of Africa and close by areas. They don’t benefit Russia anymore. This complicates NATO focus.
Posted by: Jason | Oct 15 2023 23:44 utc | 245
NATO is now donating weapons to Ukraine not to defend itself but to attack Russian military assets.
Attacks on Crimea and around the Black Sea were all carried out by NATO. Not Ukraine. Attackers simply used the Ukraine excuse.
Same goes for Nord Stream.
Russia must provide sea mines and sea drones to enemies of NATO. Let them take it from there. NATO has been battered hard from wars against rebel groups. Never won any. This is NATO’s biggest nightmare – sea borne attacks by non-state actors.
Russia should also stop supporting anti piracy operations around the Horn of Africa and close by areas. They don’t benefit Russia anymore. This complicates NATO focus.
Posted by: Jason | Oct 15 2023 23:44 utc | 246
RE: Posted by: Roger | Oct 15 2023 22:53 utc | 119
True and good reminders. I honestly thought NATO was not as evenly matched as their Russian counterpart. It seems it’s more a matter of who runs out of what first at this point.
Which means an inevitable win for Russia for completing the “demilitarization” goal.
The last 18 months sifting and filtering information regarding the “front” is lately resulting in unreliable reports, for example, I really don’t know if the Coke plant was retaken by Ukraine or if it was just a lie.
In future, I’ll remember the tactical back and forth is irrelevant compared to accomplishing the SMO goals.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 23:51 utc | 247
RE: Posted by: Roger | Oct 15 2023 22:53 utc | 119
True and good reminders. I honestly thought NATO was not as evenly matched as their Russian counterpart. It seems it’s more a matter of who runs out of what first at this point.
Which means an inevitable win for Russia for completing the “demilitarization” goal.
The last 18 months sifting and filtering information regarding the “front” is lately resulting in unreliable reports, for example, I really don’t know if the Coke plant was retaken by Ukraine or if it was just a lie.
In future, I’ll remember the tactical back and forth is irrelevant compared to accomplishing the SMO goals.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 23:51 utc | 248
Posted by: canuck | Oct 15 2023 20:59 utc | 94
James II was the VII of Scotland.
John Churchill, Earl of Marlborough, became Duke of Marlborough in 1702, whether he invested in the Bank when it was founded I’m unsure.
Posted by: bevin | Oct 15 2023 23:58 utc | 249
Posted by: canuck | Oct 15 2023 20:59 utc | 94
James II was the VII of Scotland.
John Churchill, Earl of Marlborough, became Duke of Marlborough in 1702, whether he invested in the Bank when it was founded I’m unsure.
Posted by: bevin | Oct 15 2023 23:58 utc | 250
Let me add that the Bank was far from being a good bet in its early. The real power lay in Amsterdam.
The Bank was the subject of a series of atacks from the Tories, one of which was the South Seas Company. Earlier the Hollow Sword Company also aimed to break the Bank’s monopoly.
Posted by: bevin | Oct 16 2023 0:02 utc | 251
Let me add that the Bank was far from being a good bet in its early. The real power lay in Amsterdam.
The Bank was the subject of a series of atacks from the Tories, one of which was the South Seas Company. Earlier the Hollow Sword Company also aimed to break the Bank’s monopoly.
Posted by: bevin | Oct 16 2023 0:02 utc | 252
Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 22:04 utc | 110
Grofazian pronouncements
Duckduckgo search for Grofazian:
https://www.moonofalabama.org › 2023 › 10 › ukraine-open-thread-2023-239.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d3a0305c200b
MoA – Ukraine Open Thread 2023-239
TodayThis war is already over bar the shooting, just as WW2 was in mid ’44. The West’s focus on other conflict zones proves this reality, as does Zelensky’s increasingly Grofazian pronouncements about endless offensives and million strong folks armies. Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 22:04 utc | 110
No more results found for “Grofazian”.
Suggestions:
Make sure all words are spelled correctly.
Try different keywords.
Try more general keywords.
Try fewer keywords.
What’s this “Grofazian” thing?
TIA
Posted by: genuinely curious | Oct 16 2023 0:04 utc | 253
Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 22:04 utc | 110
Grofazian pronouncements
Duckduckgo search for Grofazian:
https://www.moonofalabama.org › 2023 › 10 › ukraine-open-thread-2023-239.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d3a0305c200b
MoA – Ukraine Open Thread 2023-239
TodayThis war is already over bar the shooting, just as WW2 was in mid ’44. The West’s focus on other conflict zones proves this reality, as does Zelensky’s increasingly Grofazian pronouncements about endless offensives and million strong folks armies. Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 22:04 utc | 110
No more results found for “Grofazian”.
Suggestions:
Make sure all words are spelled correctly.
Try different keywords.
Try more general keywords.
Try fewer keywords.
What’s this “Grofazian” thing?
TIA
Posted by: genuinely curious | Oct 16 2023 0:04 utc | 254
Blow the dam further upstream.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnieper_reservoir_cascade
Posted by: too scents | Oct 15 2023 20:34 utc | 89
They did that for WWII to mess with the Germans. But now the ZNPP site, Ener*ohar, is opposite Nikopol and about 30 km south of Zaporizh* Dnipro Dam. That section of the Dnieper is pretty wide. How wide? ≤ 1.5 km, I reckon. More important, the water level varies, coastal elevation varies. West bank “meadow” snap shots have stirred up prime real estate sales buzz, according to strana.ua. Some locals think the exposed soil is suitable for cultivation, and environmental assessments are under-way. Which suggests, no one’s expecting OVA to plow through there with heavy metal this year. No doubt, too, because mud flats and marsh interrupt the east bank vista. Nonetheless, Military Summary alternates attention between Nikopol-Ener*ohar landing and islands positioned ~ 128 km south in Novo Kakhovka, Kherson region. UAF “marines” crossings by speedboat have been active there throughout Sep, and RFA subsequently has concentrated more artillery trained personnel and west bank facilities. So what I suggest is, the only way columns of Ukraine APVs and MBTs will ever cross the Dnieper anywhere is over the four remaining HPP service bridges.
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 16 2023 0:18 utc | 255
Blow the dam further upstream.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnieper_reservoir_cascade
Posted by: too scents | Oct 15 2023 20:34 utc | 89
They did that for WWII to mess with the Germans. But now the ZNPP site, Ener*ohar, is opposite Nikopol and about 30 km south of Zaporizh* Dnipro Dam. That section of the Dnieper is pretty wide. How wide? ≤ 1.5 km, I reckon. More important, the water level varies, coastal elevation varies. West bank “meadow” snap shots have stirred up prime real estate sales buzz, according to strana.ua. Some locals think the exposed soil is suitable for cultivation, and environmental assessments are under-way. Which suggests, no one’s expecting OVA to plow through there with heavy metal this year. No doubt, too, because mud flats and marsh interrupt the east bank vista. Nonetheless, Military Summary alternates attention between Nikopol-Ener*ohar landing and islands positioned ~ 128 km south in Novo Kakhovka, Kherson region. UAF “marines” crossings by speedboat have been active there throughout Sep, and RFA subsequently has concentrated more artillery trained personnel and west bank facilities. So what I suggest is, the only way columns of Ukraine APVs and MBTs will ever cross the Dnieper anywhere is over the four remaining HPP service bridges.
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 16 2023 0:18 utc | 256
“GröFaZ” is an acronym for “Größter Feldherr aller Zeiten”, i.e. “greatest commander in history”, a name bestowed upon Hitler in third reich vernacular, mocking both his strategic prowess as his fondness of abbreviations…
https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gröfaz
Posted by: Bambi | Oct 16 2023 0:21 utc | 257
“GröFaZ” is an acronym for “Größter Feldherr aller Zeiten”, i.e. “greatest commander in history”, a name bestowed upon Hitler in third reich vernacular, mocking both his strategic prowess as his fondness of abbreviations…
https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gröfaz
Posted by: Bambi | Oct 16 2023 0:21 utc | 258
@ Melaleuca | Oct 15 2023 21:11 utc | 98
good response.. thanks…
Posted by: james | Oct 16 2023 0:42 utc | 261
@ Melaleuca | Oct 15 2023 21:11 utc | 98
good response.. thanks…
Posted by: james | Oct 16 2023 0:42 utc | 262
Some videos for today.
Russian artillery interrupted an enemy troop rotation near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/073faecded0d55bbab706bca5b4f94ea/
Russian missiles strike Kiev regime industrial plant:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/Bakhmut-Tornado:4
Russian motorized unit repels enemy night attack near Rabotino on the Zaporozhye front:
https://rutube.ru/video/0873287ffa3cc84ba0e3695d4a321da0/
Russian D-20 howitzer pounds enemy position in Kherson oblast:
https://rutube.ru/video/24f0667757f24dd4b1d9cb7cf0a778d2/
Russian mortar team strikes enemy trench:
https://rutube.ru/video/c9061c9eeecc6d2e2dce0f94a62e3afc/
Posted by: Nate | Oct 16 2023 1:30 utc | 265
Some videos for today.
Russian artillery interrupted an enemy troop rotation near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/073faecded0d55bbab706bca5b4f94ea/
Russian missiles strike Kiev regime industrial plant:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/Bakhmut-Tornado:4
Russian motorized unit repels enemy night attack near Rabotino on the Zaporozhye front:
https://rutube.ru/video/0873287ffa3cc84ba0e3695d4a321da0/
Russian D-20 howitzer pounds enemy position in Kherson oblast:
https://rutube.ru/video/24f0667757f24dd4b1d9cb7cf0a778d2/
Russian mortar team strikes enemy trench:
https://rutube.ru/video/c9061c9eeecc6d2e2dce0f94a62e3afc/
Posted by: Nate | Oct 16 2023 1:30 utc | 266
Turns out misogyny is not a European value. He’s looking at 3 years in the pokey if convicted.
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 15 2023 23:35 utc | 123
###
Well, nor is sex-kinky, up-the-bum, risky-taking-orgasms, ambiguously consensal within a drug haze, post-regret by the woman, money for the woman to complain years later, power crazy devious, psycho guys like Arestovich. Z is no doubt keen to jail and bury him as he once said *to camera* he’ll run for Pres if/when Z does not. He lives OS now, no doubt feeling out his chances with sponsors and living off his hidden money. He’s no real patriot, just snake #1. Seen the TV interview where he blatantly admits that it is “necessary” for politicians to lie to their people? He creeps me out. A psychopath, sociopath.
Posted by: Sandy Freeman | Oct 16 2023 1:34 utc | 267
Turns out misogyny is not a European value. He’s looking at 3 years in the pokey if convicted.
Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 15 2023 23:35 utc | 123
###
Well, nor is sex-kinky, up-the-bum, risky-taking-orgasms, ambiguously consensal within a drug haze, post-regret by the woman, money for the woman to complain years later, power crazy devious, psycho guys like Arestovich. Z is no doubt keen to jail and bury him as he once said *to camera* he’ll run for Pres if/when Z does not. He lives OS now, no doubt feeling out his chances with sponsors and living off his hidden money. He’s no real patriot, just snake #1. Seen the TV interview where he blatantly admits that it is “necessary” for politicians to lie to their people? He creeps me out. A psychopath, sociopath.
Posted by: Sandy Freeman | Oct 16 2023 1:34 utc | 268
Andiivka is a tough nut to crack. The Russians have known this all along. They seem to be serious about cracking it whille being careful with not wasting people nor resources. The 100ft/30meter slag heap is the high point. They were trying to take it a few days ago and I lost track of where they are now. Google Maps shows the coke plant to be huge and spread out, probably with lots of tunnels.
The Russians continue to slowly apply pressure around the perimeter. All of us know that their overall approach will work, eventually.
I don’t know what to make of Z’s Chutzpah machine and its Baghdad Bob equivalent ‘We will bury you.’
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 16 2023 2:10 utc | 269
Andiivka is a tough nut to crack. The Russians have known this all along. They seem to be serious about cracking it whille being careful with not wasting people nor resources. The 100ft/30meter slag heap is the high point. They were trying to take it a few days ago and I lost track of where they are now. Google Maps shows the coke plant to be huge and spread out, probably with lots of tunnels.
The Russians continue to slowly apply pressure around the perimeter. All of us know that their overall approach will work, eventually.
I don’t know what to make of Z’s Chutzpah machine and its Baghdad Bob equivalent ‘We will bury you.’
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 16 2023 2:10 utc | 270
Pardon if someone else has posted the latest Simplicius magnum opus
BTW- he name checks b and M of A near the end
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/israeli-conflict-takes-eschatological
Posted by: Anunnaki | Oct 16 2023 2:38 utc | 271
Pardon if someone else has posted the latest Simplicius magnum opus
BTW- he name checks b and M of A near the end
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/israeli-conflict-takes-eschatological
Posted by: Anunnaki | Oct 16 2023 2:38 utc | 272
@ Acco Hengst, §140:
Don´t need to crack it. Kessel it, starve it out, freeze it out: General Winter is on his way.
How long did the Germans hold out in Stalingrad? Andeyevka will be in Russian hands before spring – with minimal loss of Russian lives.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 16 2023 2:55 utc | 273
@ Acco Hengst, §140:
Don´t need to crack it. Kessel it, starve it out, freeze it out: General Winter is on his way.
How long did the Germans hold out in Stalingrad? Andeyevka will be in Russian hands before spring – with minimal loss of Russian lives.
Posted by: John Marks | Oct 16 2023 2:55 utc | 274
The main access road to the slag heap ascends from the coke plant. The 2022 GoogleEarth imagery shows another secondary and steeper road on the north side. No way up on the eastern side except on foot. You would need to eliminate defenders with artillery, drones, and or aircraft, and I would guess the northern road is mined. To hold the height would require eliminating or suppressing all firing points in the plant and surrounding area.
The initial reports were that the Russians had pushed the defenders off the hill – possible to do with artillery I imagine – but taking command of it probably isn’t possible without taking the coke plant first. Preventing the Ukrainian side from making much use of it is probably possible.
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 16 2023 3:17 utc | 275
The main access road to the slag heap ascends from the coke plant. The 2022 GoogleEarth imagery shows another secondary and steeper road on the north side. No way up on the eastern side except on foot. You would need to eliminate defenders with artillery, drones, and or aircraft, and I would guess the northern road is mined. To hold the height would require eliminating or suppressing all firing points in the plant and surrounding area.
The initial reports were that the Russians had pushed the defenders off the hill – possible to do with artillery I imagine – but taking command of it probably isn’t possible without taking the coke plant first. Preventing the Ukrainian side from making much use of it is probably possible.
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 16 2023 3:17 utc | 276
Re: the pessimist | Oct 16 2023 3:17 utc | 143
I see a new value, maybe even a “military trend” in “paragliders”, maybe a company of them. Maybe a company with jet packs, skip the mines, no “steep hills” to have to walk up, throwing hand-grenades, shooting smoke bomb canisters upon approach. Hamas has shown us the way to attack towers and busting up high walls.
Come to think of it, Hezbollah & Hamas are great tunnel navigators since they practically live in them. Russia needs to investigate possible military “asymmetrical” ground tactics (not in a terrorist way). 🍻
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 16 2023 3:39 utc | 277
Re: the pessimist | Oct 16 2023 3:17 utc | 143
I see a new value, maybe even a “military trend” in “paragliders”, maybe a company of them. Maybe a company with jet packs, skip the mines, no “steep hills” to have to walk up, throwing hand-grenades, shooting smoke bomb canisters upon approach. Hamas has shown us the way to attack towers and busting up high walls.
Come to think of it, Hezbollah & Hamas are great tunnel navigators since they practically live in them. Russia needs to investigate possible military “asymmetrical” ground tactics (not in a terrorist way). 🍻
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 16 2023 3:39 utc | 278
Trubind1 | Oct 16 2023 3:39 utc | 144
Paragliding has been used for some time for that purpose. Dropped from a plane but they glide silently.
Motorized paragliders seem a bit noisy but it appears Hamas got to their destination without being shot down. I assume their job was to tie up or pin down the Israeli forces at the bases until the main ground forces arrive
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 16 2023 3:55 utc | 279
Trubind1 | Oct 16 2023 3:39 utc | 144
Paragliding has been used for some time for that purpose. Dropped from a plane but they glide silently.
Motorized paragliders seem a bit noisy but it appears Hamas got to their destination without being shot down. I assume their job was to tie up or pin down the Israeli forces at the bases until the main ground forces arrive
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 16 2023 3:55 utc | 280
@Trubind1 144
I think some Bond villains pioneered the technique years ago.
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 16 2023 4:31 utc | 281
@Trubind1 144
I think some Bond villains pioneered the technique years ago.
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 16 2023 4:31 utc | 282
Truebind1, peterau1, pessimist
Sounds like you want to create a transhuman drone soldiers.
Posted by: Jerr | Oct 16 2023 4:54 utc | 283
Truebind1, peterau1, pessimist
Sounds like you want to create a transhuman drone soldiers.
Posted by: Jerr | Oct 16 2023 4:54 utc | 284
Comment 25 by English Outsider
Great comment and so well written. Thanks for your insights.
Posted by: Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Oct 16 2023 5:24 utc | 285
Comment 25 by English Outsider
Great comment and so well written. Thanks for your insights.
Posted by: Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Oct 16 2023 5:24 utc | 286
@ 147.
Let the Japanese & Warhammer 40k gamers try first. It’s only fair.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Oct 16 2023 5:34 utc | 287
@ 147.
Let the Japanese & Warhammer 40k gamers try first. It’s only fair.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Oct 16 2023 5:34 utc | 288
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President conducted an analysis of the international information landscape, the topic of Ukraine faded into the background, and most publications were critical.
The conflict in Israel has completely pushed the war in Ukraine out of the information space, which could lead to a final loss of interest among Western audiences in the situation in our country.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20042
Our source in the OP said that most Western journalists left Ukraine and went to Israel. Bankova considers this a bad signal, since the war in Ukraine is fading into the background.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20131
Our source reports that the Russian Armed Forces have reduced the number of deep raids using kamikaze drones and missiles in order to cool down the Ukrainian crisis, which is losing mention and relevance in the world press.
The more boring the events in the Ukrainian crisis, the less they write and remember about it in the international press. The less likely it is that Kyiv will be allocated new huge loans for “life and weapons” – source.
At the same time, the Russians focused more on the LBC (line of combat contact) and the near rear in order to conduct a series of offensive operations in which the Ukrainian Armed Forces would lose territory and possibly end up in a cauldron/encirclement.
This will lead to the fact that Zelensky’s message that Ukraine is continuing its offensive will be destroyed and “buried.” Zelensky will have to admit not only a failure in the offensive, but also a failure in defense. This will further nullify Western support.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 16 2023 6:29 utc | 289
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President conducted an analysis of the international information landscape, the topic of Ukraine faded into the background, and most publications were critical.
The conflict in Israel has completely pushed the war in Ukraine out of the information space, which could lead to a final loss of interest among Western audiences in the situation in our country.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20042
Our source in the OP said that most Western journalists left Ukraine and went to Israel. Bankova considers this a bad signal, since the war in Ukraine is fading into the background.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/20131
Our source reports that the Russian Armed Forces have reduced the number of deep raids using kamikaze drones and missiles in order to cool down the Ukrainian crisis, which is losing mention and relevance in the world press.
The more boring the events in the Ukrainian crisis, the less they write and remember about it in the international press. The less likely it is that Kyiv will be allocated new huge loans for “life and weapons” – source.
At the same time, the Russians focused more on the LBC (line of combat contact) and the near rear in order to conduct a series of offensive operations in which the Ukrainian Armed Forces would lose territory and possibly end up in a cauldron/encirclement.
This will lead to the fact that Zelensky’s message that Ukraine is continuing its offensive will be destroyed and “buried.” Zelensky will have to admit not only a failure in the offensive, but also a failure in defense. This will further nullify Western support.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 16 2023 6:29 utc | 290
Our source reports that everyone in the Office of the President is already aware that Ukraine will not be able to receive $43 billion from the West to cover the 2024 budget deficit.
The authorities are already considering the following options:
1. Increase in tariffs by 100-300%
2. Reduction of social benefits, etc.
3. An increase in the dollar/hryvnia exchange rate by 20-35% (this is still a positive scenario).
4. Delays in salary payments and all social services
According to the source, Bankova expects to receive $22 billion in the best case, and less than $14 billion in the negative case. At its most negative, less than 4 billion, but it will be a fiasco and collapse.
All our sources assure that the Office of the President has huge problems that are not told to the average person in order to keep the masses in a positive illusion. But the time will come and the masses will be faced with this reality, which the “ze-office people” do not warn them about.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 16 2023 6:31 utc | 291
Our source reports that everyone in the Office of the President is already aware that Ukraine will not be able to receive $43 billion from the West to cover the 2024 budget deficit.
The authorities are already considering the following options:
1. Increase in tariffs by 100-300%
2. Reduction of social benefits, etc.
3. An increase in the dollar/hryvnia exchange rate by 20-35% (this is still a positive scenario).
4. Delays in salary payments and all social services
According to the source, Bankova expects to receive $22 billion in the best case, and less than $14 billion in the negative case. At its most negative, less than 4 billion, but it will be a fiasco and collapse.
All our sources assure that the Office of the President has huge problems that are not told to the average person in order to keep the masses in a positive illusion. But the time will come and the masses will be faced with this reality, which the “ze-office people” do not warn them about.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 16 2023 6:31 utc | 292
The missiles are flying at airfields (Mirgorod) and there is information about a hit in the Dnepropetrovsk region. Most likely also in terms of aviation infrastructure (it is clearly visible how the Russians are trying to “take out” the aviation infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the forefront).
Also, flights of kamikaze Geranium UAVs have now been recorded.
As we are now observing, missiles and UAVs fly along the near rear, without flying into the deep rear, as we wrote earlier.
Our source reports that Ukraine is faced with a shortage of intelligence data, which the West previously provided in huge quantities.
Much less now. Sometimes the Armed Forces of Ukraine turn out to be “blind,” missing missile launches, UAVs, and even maneuvers of the Russian Armed Forces.
Of course, this decline occurred due to the aggravation in the Middle East. Everyone in the OP is afraid that the Israeli case will drag on and worsen even more, which will pull even more “eyes/ears”, personnel, equipment, etc. away from the Ukrainian crisis.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 16 2023 6:34 utc | 293
The missiles are flying at airfields (Mirgorod) and there is information about a hit in the Dnepropetrovsk region. Most likely also in terms of aviation infrastructure (it is clearly visible how the Russians are trying to “take out” the aviation infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the forefront).
Also, flights of kamikaze Geranium UAVs have now been recorded.
As we are now observing, missiles and UAVs fly along the near rear, without flying into the deep rear, as we wrote earlier.
Our source reports that Ukraine is faced with a shortage of intelligence data, which the West previously provided in huge quantities.
Much less now. Sometimes the Armed Forces of Ukraine turn out to be “blind,” missing missile launches, UAVs, and even maneuvers of the Russian Armed Forces.
Of course, this decline occurred due to the aggravation in the Middle East. Everyone in the OP is afraid that the Israeli case will drag on and worsen even more, which will pull even more “eyes/ears”, personnel, equipment, etc. away from the Ukrainian crisis.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 16 2023 6:34 utc | 294
Armchair Warlord’s take:
It’s D+5: Russian troops have consolidated positions on the flanks of Avdeevka in the face of AFU counterattacks and resumed attacks. It’s likely at at this point we’ve seen the completion of Phases I (attack to isolate) and II (defeat counterattack) of the Russian battle plan.
Allow me to explain what’s going on in the battle with the help of something that most mappers don’t use – an elevation map. This allows us to see what the intervisibility lines are around Avdeevka – essentially the ridgelines beyond which you can see into the terrain beyond. Control of intervisibility lines allows observation and direct fire beyond them, and allows friendly forces to take cover behind them.
I’ve marked what are currently Russian-held positions and key IV lines in red and Ukrainian ones in blue, with Russian tactical positions in gray. Before the Russian attack went in last week, the IV lines at what are currently the Russian tactical positions were all Ukrainian-held, the Russian position in Krasnogorovka north of Avdeevka (immediately east of the marked Security Position) was probably far more tenuous than was generally believed, and Avdeevka was so secure the AFU could still supply it by rail.
Fast forward to today and reports are coming in that Avdeevka has been isolated, with the one remaining supply road – marked AFU MSR – too dangerous to use thanks to effective Russian fire. So what happened?
Well, on October 10th the Russian “114th Brigade” launched a battalion attack out of Krasnogorovka to seize SBF 1 (“support by fire”) and the Security Position – this dramatic armored attack was completely successful and took both areas in a matter of hours, with Russian forces rapidly getting into direct-fire engagements with Ukrainian troops in the northern village belt and the industrial zone. This led to panic reports that those areas in turn were being stormed despite there being little evidence of Russian troops operating west of the railroad in that area. The 114th was after the high ground, not the villages. The seizure of these positions allowed Russian armor and AT teams to dominate the north half of the Western Village Belt, fire on the MSR, and begin softening up the usual AFU stronghold in the industrial zone.
Meanwhile, different Russian battalions attacked to seize SBF 2 in the south and the Assault Position – something that took longer due, I believe, to the need to clear minefields and the dense entrenchments immediately south of Avdeevka. Russian troops appear to have consolidated on SBF 2 yesterday, allowing them to dominate the south half of the village belt with fire and engage the MSR from the south as well. At that time a flurry of reports came out that the city had been cut off.
Immediate Ukrainian counterattacks appear to have done little beyond push Russian troops off the exposed face of the slag heap on the south side of SBF 1. Russian troops in turn have begun expanding their foothold around the slag heap in the last couple days.
So, right now the Russians are in a position around Avdeevka where they can move troops into combat via covered routes, and have essentially no positions that are “hanging” and exposed to enemy direct fire, while Ukrainian supplies and reinforcements will need to run a gauntlet of direct fire to get in and their entire defensive belt west of town is in full view of Russian armor.
* Just as a note, the distance between both SBF 1 and SBF 2 and the MSR is about four kilometers – a long but quite reasonable distance to engage for tank guns and antitank missiles, particularly against soft targets that can be destroyed with HE shells.
I suspect that Russian forces will now fight south to north from the Assault Position to secure the Residential Zone before making another rural push to collapse the village belt – which will necessarily see the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the fortified Industrial Zone. They may also attack the AFU-held “Redoubt” east of town to bolster their general position in the north, which is somewhat interdicted by this Ukrainian-held hill.
Their pace of progress really depends on the forces they’re willing to commit – thus far only a single brigade’s worth of troops appears to have actually gone into action. Contra to Ukrainian propaganda, losses have been modest compared to the results achieved – trading one or two companies to isolate an enemy brigade battle position is an excellent showing, and Russian industry stamps out enough equipment for a motor rifle regiment every week regardless.
https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1713720480115642787
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 16 2023 6:38 utc | 295
Armchair Warlord’s take:
It’s D+5: Russian troops have consolidated positions on the flanks of Avdeevka in the face of AFU counterattacks and resumed attacks. It’s likely at at this point we’ve seen the completion of Phases I (attack to isolate) and II (defeat counterattack) of the Russian battle plan.
Allow me to explain what’s going on in the battle with the help of something that most mappers don’t use – an elevation map. This allows us to see what the intervisibility lines are around Avdeevka – essentially the ridgelines beyond which you can see into the terrain beyond. Control of intervisibility lines allows observation and direct fire beyond them, and allows friendly forces to take cover behind them.
I’ve marked what are currently Russian-held positions and key IV lines in red and Ukrainian ones in blue, with Russian tactical positions in gray. Before the Russian attack went in last week, the IV lines at what are currently the Russian tactical positions were all Ukrainian-held, the Russian position in Krasnogorovka north of Avdeevka (immediately east of the marked Security Position) was probably far more tenuous than was generally believed, and Avdeevka was so secure the AFU could still supply it by rail.
Fast forward to today and reports are coming in that Avdeevka has been isolated, with the one remaining supply road – marked AFU MSR – too dangerous to use thanks to effective Russian fire. So what happened?
Well, on October 10th the Russian “114th Brigade” launched a battalion attack out of Krasnogorovka to seize SBF 1 (“support by fire”) and the Security Position – this dramatic armored attack was completely successful and took both areas in a matter of hours, with Russian forces rapidly getting into direct-fire engagements with Ukrainian troops in the northern village belt and the industrial zone. This led to panic reports that those areas in turn were being stormed despite there being little evidence of Russian troops operating west of the railroad in that area. The 114th was after the high ground, not the villages. The seizure of these positions allowed Russian armor and AT teams to dominate the north half of the Western Village Belt, fire on the MSR, and begin softening up the usual AFU stronghold in the industrial zone.
Meanwhile, different Russian battalions attacked to seize SBF 2 in the south and the Assault Position – something that took longer due, I believe, to the need to clear minefields and the dense entrenchments immediately south of Avdeevka. Russian troops appear to have consolidated on SBF 2 yesterday, allowing them to dominate the south half of the village belt with fire and engage the MSR from the south as well. At that time a flurry of reports came out that the city had been cut off.
Immediate Ukrainian counterattacks appear to have done little beyond push Russian troops off the exposed face of the slag heap on the south side of SBF 1. Russian troops in turn have begun expanding their foothold around the slag heap in the last couple days.
So, right now the Russians are in a position around Avdeevka where they can move troops into combat via covered routes, and have essentially no positions that are “hanging” and exposed to enemy direct fire, while Ukrainian supplies and reinforcements will need to run a gauntlet of direct fire to get in and their entire defensive belt west of town is in full view of Russian armor.
* Just as a note, the distance between both SBF 1 and SBF 2 and the MSR is about four kilometers – a long but quite reasonable distance to engage for tank guns and antitank missiles, particularly against soft targets that can be destroyed with HE shells.
I suspect that Russian forces will now fight south to north from the Assault Position to secure the Residential Zone before making another rural push to collapse the village belt – which will necessarily see the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the fortified Industrial Zone. They may also attack the AFU-held “Redoubt” east of town to bolster their general position in the north, which is somewhat interdicted by this Ukrainian-held hill.
Their pace of progress really depends on the forces they’re willing to commit – thus far only a single brigade’s worth of troops appears to have actually gone into action. Contra to Ukrainian propaganda, losses have been modest compared to the results achieved – trading one or two companies to isolate an enemy brigade battle position is an excellent showing, and Russian industry stamps out enough equipment for a motor rifle regiment every week regardless.
https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1713720480115642787
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 16 2023 6:38 utc | 296
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 15 2023 18:59 utc | 68
Just a guess,
But I think the RQ-4B Global Hawk is under heavy EW attacks, its a more
efficient method, and loosing its effectiveness in relaying and implementing data, hence the need for attempts to get closer to the borders of Russia, which in turn would be shot down.
The alleged air balloons were only shot down in US airspace, not in China.
My bet is the Russians are alot more intelligent, experienced than us in de-escalating hostile, war triggering situations.
Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Oct 16 2023 6:44 utc | 297
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 15 2023 18:59 utc | 68
Just a guess,
But I think the RQ-4B Global Hawk is under heavy EW attacks, its a more
efficient method, and loosing its effectiveness in relaying and implementing data, hence the need for attempts to get closer to the borders of Russia, which in turn would be shot down.
The alleged air balloons were only shot down in US airspace, not in China.
My bet is the Russians are alot more intelligent, experienced than us in de-escalating hostile, war triggering situations.
Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Oct 16 2023 6:44 utc | 298
Posted by: canuck | Oct 15 2023 16:40 utc | 46
Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 15 2023 16:49 utc | 51
No problem!
Posted by: Down South | Oct 16 2023 6:46 utc | 299
Posted by: canuck | Oct 15 2023 16:40 utc | 46
Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 15 2023 16:49 utc | 51
No problem!
Posted by: Down South | Oct 16 2023 6:46 utc | 300