Posted by: David | Oct 15 2023 17:52 utc | 55
i think control over the media is greater now, than in any prior period.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 15 2023 17:57 utc | 103

Thank you, English Outsider. I agree with most of that. I think, though, that the madness started long before hand, with the outrageous propaganda exercises enacted to demonise Russia and Mr Putin, and China as well. The moulding of the electorates of the West was going on for much longer, preparing them for the current scenario in all its obscene ludicrousness. And I have thought, since 2022, that the primary objective of the Ukraine manoeuvre was to destroy Europe as a potential rival to the USA, an endeavour embraced by the EU elite.

Posted by: Bramble | Oct 15 2023 18:08 utc | 105

Russia has to reinvent herself again, as Russian elites still hope they would be accepted in the “european family of nations”.
But this is a total war.

Posted by: zorge | Oct 15 2023 18:17 utc | 107

Most of report shows a viable, strong Ukrainian offense and Defence, but this last report regarding “manpower”, shows not very distance collapse if this is the “reserves” being counted on.
I would have expected a flood of insurgency groups right now instead.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 14:53 utc | 22
Morale wise they are probably running on a combination of wartime nationalism and
monkey model nazism.
That’s a powerful combination, of course you are not going to see an insurgency and many ukrainian soldiers still choose death over surrender.

Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 15 2023 18:19 utc | 109

Most of report shows a viable, strong Ukrainian offense and Defence, but this last report regarding “manpower”, shows not very distance collapse if this is the “reserves” being counted on.
I would have expected a flood of insurgency groups right now instead.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 14:53 utc | 22
Morale wise they are probably running on a combination of wartime nationalism and
monkey model nazism.
That’s a powerful combination, of course you are not going to see an insurgency and many ukrainian soldiers still choose death over surrender.

Posted by: Satepestage | Oct 15 2023 18:19 utc | 111

I agree Pretzel. I lived in apartheid South Africa as a teenager. There was no television and the government engaged in heavy-handed censorship. There was more dissent there than there is here. It is hard to have anything resembling hope in this environment. There aren’t many people I can even talk to anymore.

Posted by: David | Oct 15 2023 18:21 utc | 113

Well, the verdict does seem near certain now : Avdiivka is Ugledar 2.0. Another abject failure by the Russian armed forces.
The most striking aspect of it is that it seems the RuAF have not learned anything new in terms of tactics or strategy. That is actually the single most depressing aspect of this : the Russian army seems incapable of learning. Its only strategy is to launch a few waves of armored vehicles, bomb everything that moves but with a precision that leaves much to be desired, and then roll forward and cross its fingers. Only to run into a wall of steel with the Ukie artillery picking up everything at will.
I’m really fed up of all the bullshitters, all this Zanon crowd bleating about the invincible russian army, the superhuman skill of the Russian staff, the 5D chess. What a bunch of clowns. Reality : all the Russian military might is unable to conquer a land fill 10 km west of Donetsk, one and a half years after starting the SMO.
This is a cold, hard fact. Unlike the wet dreams about the Ukrainian army about to collapse, ammo running out, bla bla bla. All these complicated theories have just been blasted away the last few days by the undeniable fact that
– Avdiivka remains Ukrainian
– the Ukies are still solidly entrenched in it
– they have competed and trained artillery forces able to withstand an armored assault
– they have more than enough FPV drones
– Russians have only gained a few metres at most.

Posted by: Micron | Oct 15 2023 18:25 utc | 115

A beautiful meme has zelensky distraught saying “I needed HIMARS not HAMAS”

Posted by: Hankster | Oct 15 2023 18:31 utc | 117

Re:David @55 & Pretzelattack @56
On the topic of media, here’s my two cents.
Yes, the media is the most controlled & coordinated (maybe) in history. And Obama’s damaging revival of government propaganda, it could certainly be said, in the timeframe of “Internet” and the myriads of “social sites”, it is at its worse.
However, I remember much the same around 911 and Sandy Hook. At that time, ALL other alternative sites were “conspiracy nuts” and the traffic to “find” alternative “news” was not as great.
Your “alternative” bloggers were also fairly limited in relation to the barrage of MSM sites. I think after 911, Sandy, & the most recent COV hoax, the control of narrative, censorship, banning, is at an all time high.
But I also think sites like this, and many more sources for information are as great.
I think back to the WW2, or heck, even Iran Embassy crisis, and there was nothing. Complete control over every single newspaper & TV, radio outlet. A minimal of “columnists” or independent “radical” news sites that challenged things, and WW2 was a slam dunk, no one even questioned “how” did Japan reach our shore exactly?
Granted, we basically had one decade of immense freedom with internet, the 90’s. But that had to go, and 2001 finished that off. So, as bad as it is, it is actually better than it was 7 years ago, heck even 3 years ago. The EU is doing piss poor in getting their shit back after COV crackdown.
But the US, honestly, I don’t think these Masters of the Universe care, and openly show they have nothing but contempt for us, and if we don’t agree with their controlled coordination of their narratives, they’ll still keep pumping them out anyway. But the lawsuits & the whack a mole that happens, they ban this site, and 20 more pop up, so they’re in control mode, and who knows what’s in store that way, I don’t think they have a resolution yet that doesn’t affect their own propoganda.
Just my opinion. I think we’re freer to be informed and gather information than the 40s for sure.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 18:32 utc | 119

I thought the carrier was going to park near Israel not for Iran to sink but for Israel to sink when things go bad. Pearl harbour and all . The liberty crew look on in earnest

Posted by: Hankster | Oct 15 2023 18:36 utc | 121

@ Micron, §62:
Just wait until Andeyevka is ´kesseled´. Then, with the assistance of General Winter, you´ll see the wisdom of the Russian strategy.
The Germans had many of such “festungen” (e.g. Breslau, Königsberg, Danzig, etc., etc.) in WW2. The Russians just cut them off and by-passed them. They´ll do the same to Andeyevka, with a great saving of Russian lives in contrast to a frontal assault.

Posted by: John Marks | Oct 15 2023 18:37 utc | 123

” This is commonly written up as a good thing in the United States, and I believe it is the opposite. Western Europe is our only large and usually reliable ally. By damaging Europe to the point of impotence, our ability to retain global hegemony is reduced.
Posted by: Jmaas | Oct 15 2023 16:58 utc | 52 ”
Thats probably not as major of a problem as you think mainly because I believe we are in the ” end game ” stages of this whole, decades if not centuries long, affair. Even, when the US seems to be on its own, no nation seems to have the will to confront it directly. The Ukraine situation is a good example. The US sends weapons and other supplies there with the publicly stated goal of Russia’s dissolution, with out any ramifications. I dont think that would be the case if Russia was doing the same against the US.

Posted by: Moonie | Oct 15 2023 18:38 utc | 125

Trubind1 @ 5

The last time the large missile assault on Crimea by NATO ( no point calling it Ukraine anymore) it was followed after surveillance & targeting capabilities via US drone.

The MoD must know what it is doing but makes me want to hit my head against the wall. It’s a fucking unmanned vehicle, shoot it down already. To think the USA went ape shit apoplectic over a Chinese weather balloon and China is still far from at war with them. MoD must know what it is doing.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 15 2023 18:59 utc | 127

Posted by: Moonie | Oct 15 2023 18:38 utc | 67
The global south should be using the open US borders in the south to infiltrate it chock full of freedom fighters and dissidents. And start wrecking it from the inside.
Not to say that Biden admin isn’t doing a good job of it by itself, but it could be facilitated.
The most practical thing to do is probably continue co-operation between Iran. Realistically, Iran has so many contacts and proxies throughout the entire Middle East that it is the most practical way for Russia to return the favor re. Ukraine. Give them modern weapons and they will wreck US and Centcom.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 15 2023 18:59 utc | 129

You are right, Trubind, during the forties there was more control. But I think people realized that because of the war, they were being overtly propagandized by the government. It was seen as acceptable given the circumstances. The population continues to be propagandized but is convinced that they it protected by a “free” press. The people I expected to know better are now “liberal interventionists.” There is no constituency that can provide meaningful resistance. This site is a refuge for people who will always be on the periphery. I’m grateful for having it.

Posted by: David | Oct 15 2023 19:01 utc | 131

@ 54
Yawn.
—-
@ 58
Double yawn.
—-
@ 62
Triple yawn.
Take your fearsome NATO, Kremlin phantoms and mighty AFU. To reddit were it belongs.
If anything the three of you posted was true:
1) The SMO wouldn’t have started.
2) The RF Wouldn’t have persisted as it did.
3) The AFU would be in Donetsk and Sevastopol.
The variations of the same repetitive whinge, is far more tiresome than any “AFU doomed is tomorrow” postings. Because practically no one believes that.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Oct 15 2023 19:06 utc | 133

Slavyangrad Telegram Channel analysis….
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/68654
The Armed Forces of Ukraine faced the “Bakhmut problem” near the village of Rabotino:
In the last four weeks, the infantry of the 116th, 117th, and 118th mechanized brigades, used in “meat assaults” for the sake of saving the 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade “Magura” and the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade, began to die en masse while trying to bypass the main minefields, prepared even before the start of the war. active phase of the Ukrainian offensive.
At first, the scale of the explosions was large, but not critical, but the situation is rapidly deteriorating.
The problem began to manifest itself in full force after the start of repeated mining of the territories, an attempt to “grope” for a safe passage without involving sappers, who are often nowhere to be found in positions, leads to the fact that anti-tank ditches are increasingly chosen as shelters.
In some cases, these structures are left intentionally, since the tactics of flexible defense of the Russian Armed Forces in this area allow you to choose which areas included in the killing zones to launch the Ukrainian Armed Forces infantry, which can later be destroyed by artillery.
In the last three weeks, 152-mm howitzers have been used less and less for such tasks: due to the widespread use of remote mining systems “Agriculture”, as well as the regular work of sappers and Russian special forces, anti-tank ditches are full of many anti-personnel mines.
Armed Forces platoons caught in such positions are almost guaranteed to die, unable to get out or receive the minimum necessary medical care.
Even in the case of indirect contact with a mine, a moderate injury quickly becomes severe due to the lack of equipment for evacuation, as well as due to the terrain controlled by drones and Russian artillery.
Given the relatively dry weather in Zaporozhye over the past three weeks and the general losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area, such difficulties may seem insignificant, but soon everything may change.
Starting from October 16, precipitation is expected in Zaporozhye, and all dug but uncovered trenches and abandoned anti-tank ditches will gradually fill with water. In such conditions, for the Ukrainian infantry, any injury is fraught with rapid death due to the entry of microbes into the blood.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine already experienced similar difficulties in Artyomovsk – then the filling of the trenches with water and impassable mud led to the fact that local morgues and hospitals were filled to capacity and the wounded had to be transported to neighboring Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Konstantinovka, and Druzhkovka.
In Zaporozhye, the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have the ability to redirect the flow of wounded, as well as to promptly and safely pull them out of the trenches after being wounded.
Meanwhile…
At the Rabotino-Verbovoye line, the Armed Forces of Ukraine focused on attacks towards Kopanei. They managed to penetrate the defenses of the Russian Armed Forces on the approaches to the village, and artillery is currently actively operating in the area.
The Russian Armed Forces are counterattacking near Novoprokopovka and Verbovoy. It was possible to occupy several forest plantations. The fighting continues.
In general, today the Armed Forces of Ukraine are striving to fulfill the task of expanding the “ Rabotinsky salient ” and improving their positions within the autumn-winter period

Now the wet season of mud begins…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 15 2023 19:12 utc | 135

@50 Canuck
Exactly!! The “seat” of all Zionist control runs through the City of London in the Square Mile. Has been since the 17th century as they took power from the British aristocrats.

Posted by: bisfugged | Oct 15 2023 19:23 utc | 137

RE: David | Oct 15 2023 19:01 utc | 70
It’s been so many years that I even thought about the “free press” idea, that I forgot it existed out there.
You’re right, didn’t calculate that. Thx. And agree about this site.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 19:30 utc | 139

@ English Outsider | Oct 15 2023 15:02 utc | 25
in answer to your question at the end – a very gullible people.. that is who..

Posted by: james | Oct 15 2023 19:32 utc | 141

Posted by: Micron | Oct 15 2023 18:25 utc | 62
I think the verdict is less concerned with the competency of the Russian Army but more with the amateur analysts, relying on open sources, who seem to draw conclusions any G-2 would be wary of thinking, let alone voicing. Russian doctrine is to bypass urban areas, where applicable, which is why there was dismay in the officer corps at their orders to assault Grozny, in the first Chechen war. If Ukraine was forced to reinforce Avdivka then that’s more troops trapped when the supply routes are cut off. Worse, by forcing the Ukrainian’s to divert troops from the Southern flank they risk a double pincer move, trapping troops in the salient caused by the failed offensive and anything to the SW of the city.
If you expected Avdivka to rapidly fall to anything less than a deployment of an Army sized force you perhaps need to focus more on the force ratios required and historical precedents, and less on being disappointed by the failure of the Russians to live up to your expectations. As I’ve said before, war is a constant series of profit and loss exercises, the side that eventually triumphs is the one that manages to coordinate their risk v reward index to their opening balance sheet. Russia’s first series of probes might be stopped, but at what cost to the Ukrainians? Who can best afford the exchange needed to achieve this result and who can match that price and then raise it? The Germans in ‘44-45 inflicted a series of operational setbacks on the Allies, but their eventual fate was still sealed because they could not keep paying the price needed or match their opponents ability to keep raising the stakes.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 19:33 utc | 143

Two, not often mentioned, things were accomplished by Russia’s feint towards Kiev in the beginning of the SMO. One, it caused a mass exodus of refugees to other nations, and hundreds of thousands of those were males who’d have been conscripted had they stayed. Secondly, eventually those host countries have grown to resent a lot of the refugees, and those Ukrainians serve as a constant reminder that the proxy war against Russia is meeting with failure, and that more and more it becomes likely that the only way to put this failed war in the rear view mirror, and to return the refugees before they claim their host countries as home, is to negotiate with Russia, sooner rather than later. Should Russia go on the offensive, and enjoy success, they will be likely to be less prone to want to make any concessions, and will instead continue their offensive until the AFU has been destroyed, and the government in Kiev has collapsed. Once that happened, the refugees would be even more resistant to returning to Ukraine.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 15 2023 19:54 utc | 145

RE: Babel-17 | Oct 15 2023 19:54 utc | 77
I had forgotten the initial “feint” did that.
Good points.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 20:01 utc | 147

Jmaas | Oct 15 2023 16:58 utc | 52
I completely agree with you: benevolent hegemony is better for the hegemon (in the longer run).
But this wasn’t the point.
EUrope is weakened, but most of all, it has lost its strategic latitude (ability to pursue see-saw policy).
Under the guise of “reducing dependence on Russia”, it has given up what independence it had gained in the decades since 1990. The prime example being oil + gas imports, with most now coming via sea lanes controlled by US/UK (as opposed to the fairly diversified supply pre-2022).
Forget about ‘global hegemony’, that ship has sailed long ago. Best US/UK can hope for is remain undisputed leaders of the ‘West’, and with this power base stay globally relevant.
Crushing EUrope economically, even ‘de-industrializing’ it (a phrase now commonly heard), wouldn’t be in US interest at all. (It could be argued that Washington’s and London’s strategies differ in this regard, to some extent.) US needs the EU as a reliable ally against China – dependent, but economically strong.
Higher commodity + energy prices only mean that EU has to export more, reduce domestic consumption – which can cause social harm & political crises. Also, some very energy-intensive industries will shrink/ relocate, which was bound to happen anyway.

Posted by: smuks | Oct 15 2023 20:08 utc | 149

Ashkenazy Jews prioritize land over people. It’s an habitual thing, civilizational. It explains, even makes predictable, their decisions in 404 and Palestine to hold land they cannot possibly hold unless someone else lets them, enables them. They will accept self-slaughter rather than give up land once in hand. It’s a peculiar trait that quite runs through the lot of them, no matter which region of the globe they happen to be. I can’t think of any other ethnicity who are quite that way about dirt.

Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Oct 15 2023 20:14 utc | 151

Dima, the analyst, warns about a huge Ukro operation across Dniepro.
How can such attack with 1 million man army be stopped?

Posted by: zorge | Oct 15 2023 20:21 utc | 153

Can one of you geniuses help me put on this conundrum that I can’t figure out? The dam on the Dnieper was demolished so the water levels in the river dropped significantly.
Now my question: is the water levels still draining so the riverbed is getting drier or with the fall rains will the river begin to fill back up?

Posted by: canuck | Oct 15 2023 20:22 utc | 155

canuck | Oct 15 2023 20:22 utc | 82
I’m not a genius but I think the water level will fluctuate. Much like the stock market.

Posted by: dh | Oct 15 2023 20:26 utc | 157

Dima, the analyst, warns about a huge Ukro operation across Dniepro.
How can such attack with 1 million man army be stopped?
Posted by: zorge | Oct 15 2023 20:21 utc | 81

simplex, is that you?

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 15 2023 20:28 utc | 159

@50 Canuck
Exactly!! The “seat” of all Zionist control runs through the City of London in the Square Mile. Has been since the 17th century as they took power from the British aristocrats.
Posted by: bisfugged | Oct 15 2023 19:23 utc | 73
Yes in 1694 the City (the major nobles and so on, the Duke of Marlborough was one investor, ) raised 1.2 million pounds (an astounding amount of money for those times)in debt money to fund William III’s (and Mary till 1698) European war.
They have had control of the West since then-though now their reign is getting ‘long in the tooth’-I hope so but I wouldn’t bet on it as they are suprnational and clever yet diabolical.

Posted by: canuck | Oct 15 2023 20:29 utc | 161

it snows in winter months, so yes, the river level will drop further, not sure about the ice thickness, might be enough to cross the river on foot

Posted by: marina | Oct 15 2023 20:30 utc | 163

by: Arch Bungle | Oct 15 2023 13:44 utc | 10
If this is still part the Gerasimov doctrine (or his theoretical body of work) then my hat off to the man. I believe he will go down in military history as one of the greats.
True that.
Here you can find, indeed Gerasimov-inspired, document on Active Defence from the Western perspective, a bit pre-dated to the SMO. Still very valid, I think even if approved by Michael Kofman in August 2021.
Some excepts below, the rest is a good read nevertheless.

Active defense strategy: a strategic concept integrating preemptive measures to prevent conflict, and wartime concepts of operations that seek to deny an opponent a decisive victory in the initial period of war, degrading and disorganizing their effort, while setting the conditions for a counteroffensive or attaining war termination. The strategy privileges a permanent standing force, arrayed as high readiness operational formations in each strategic direction, prepared to execute operations jointly.
Critical objects: broad term for important military and civilian infrastructure targets: varies at strategic, operational, and tactical levels.
Disorganization of C2: measures aimed at complicating and fragmenting the functioning of an adversary C2 system, preventing effective management of forces, and achieving information superiority.
Forms and methods of warfare: forms include operations, engagement, combat, and strikes; while methods are understood as the aggregate of forms, modern approaches, and procedures.
Initial period of war: according to Soviet and Russian military science, this is the most critical and decisive period of conflict when countries launch strategic operations with already deployed forces.
Maneuver defense: a form of defense predicated on avoiding decisive engagement, withdrawing forces to degrade an opponent with artillery until a positional defense is mounted. Trades territory to preserve the force.

Just as it is written – it is going on, for the naysayers.
Gerasimov is really great vessel that managed to channel all the Russian war experiences to the one comprehensive, but ever evolving and adopting theory backed up by practice.
So far, as it is immensely complex task on RF to adapt to it through combat experience and time, terroir and military aim, RF is not doing bad, and it can only get better.
Prigozin’s Bakhmut/Artemovsk head on assault, by not respecting Gero’s doctrine, made many people in the Army angry, but some suggested letting him do it, so they have the material to write about later.
I guess Gero didn’t get out of his pyjamas for Prigo.
Gotta respect the pyjama. 🙂

Posted by: whirlX | Oct 15 2023 20:30 utc | 165

Military summary:
-Apparently AFU has removed 4 of their marine brigades previously around Urozhaine, preparing them to attack across the Dniepr in the Kherson region opening a completely new front
-territorial defense brigades have conducted preliminary attempts to capture the islands in Dniepr, paving the way for their main attack
-RU is exploiting the lack of AFU forces (after removal of 4 marine brigades) in the Urozhaine area. There are gaps in AFU lines, which so far enabled RU to get very close to Priyutne, which AFU took in the very beginning of their offensive
-RU might be hoping to draw AFU reserves into Avdeevka, similarly as they did in Bakhmut
-The Avdeevka offensive will now probably turn into a very slow and methodical one, slowly squeezing the air from AFU in Avdeevka
-Zelensky takes full personal responsibility of the new Kherson offensive – it’s not clear whether it is supported by military command
-Once again, because they need to “show something” to the west to maintain interest
-Ukraine announced a new mobilization of 500-1000k

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 15 2023 20:32 utc | 167

How can such attack with 1 million man army be stopped?
Posted by: zorge | Oct 15 2023 20:21 utc | 81
—
Blow the dam further upstream.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnieper_reservoir_cascade

Posted by: too scents | Oct 15 2023 20:34 utc | 169

Excellent summary.
But I will make the observation that many haven’t bought into the MSM’s anti Russia narratives.
When the media is as controlled as it is there’s only one narrative that’s going to be allowed.
The days of critical analysis are over in the media if you want to hold onto your Job.
As I watched the proxy war fever sweep over Europe last year – the fever’s still there though now abating fast – that was the most troubling question. What sort of people are we, the peoples of the West, that could be led so willingly into so transparently evil a venture as this?
Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 15 2023 15:02 utc | 25

Posted by: jpc | Oct 15 2023 20:37 utc | 171

Just to add thought. So it seems AFU has kind of abandoned their line in Urozhaine and some other areas in the south, or left a skeleton crew to try and hold them. And they want to open a new front across the river.
Depending on whether RUAF can exploit it, they might be able to indirectly already wreck the AFU Kherson plan. Of course AFU might ignore it and go ahead and attack across Kherson anyway. The 500-1000k mobilization is probably intended as a way to keep holding other areas.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 15 2023 20:38 utc | 173

Yes in 1694 the City (the major nobles and so on, the Duke of Marlborough was one investor, ) raised 1.2 million pounds (an astounding amount of money for those times)in debt money to fund William III’s (and Mary till 1698) European war.
Posted by: canuck | Oct 15 2023 20:29 utc | 85
And William of Orange wasn’t even Anglo-Saxon! Nor was Mary (daughter of James 11 who was a Scot)

Posted by: dh | Oct 15 2023 20:41 utc | 175

How can such attack with 1 million man army be stopped?
Posted by: zorge | Oct 15 2023 20:21 utc | 81
Are you sure it is not 10 millions?

Posted by: Naive | Oct 15 2023 20:45 utc | 177

@92 Yes but James II (and sixth of Scotland I believe) was the third son of Charles I. James was very pro Catholic which primarily led to the Glorious Revolution where Marlborough betrayed James II.
That;s how he got to buy in with the money men.

Posted by: canuck | Oct 15 2023 20:59 utc | 179

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 15 2023 20:38 utc | 91
All the that the German offensives in late ‘44-‘45 achieved was to speed up the end of the war, same with the UAF, I doubt they will allow Zelensky the opportunity to destroy the country they pledged an oath to protect, their fighting for honour now, not to be party to suicidal attempts to prop up a rapidly collapsing, unpopular government. In fact, if they deem the leadership to be a greater threat to Ukraine’s fragile sovereignty they might very well launch their own, small scale, offensive, directed at the Kiev regime.
Posted by: whirlX | Oct 15 2023 20:30 utc | 87
Strip out the manoeuvre defence (WW2 Soviet infantry formations did not have the organic mobility) and the emphasis on C2 and targeting said nodes (Soviet formations were deficient in both areas) and you have the basis for the Kursk defence in ‘43. The Germans had not expected the Soviets to repeatedly counter, all be it clumsily, their armoured spearheads which destroyed their operational timetable, especially in the Northern sector around Ponyri.
Posted by: zorge | Oct 15 2023 20:21 utc | 81
A million barely trained infantry will stop themselves, never mind the slaughter such a concentrated force will suffer under constant Russian air and artillery fire. Four under strength Marine regiments will achieve little and any advance will come up against the tens/hundreds of thousands of uncommitted troops. If they’re not careful, such a stupid plan could lead to the Russians seizing Odessa.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 21:00 utc | 181

canuck | Oct 15 2023 20:59 utc | 94
He brought the money men over from Amsterdam.

Posted by: dh | Oct 15 2023 21:06 utc | 183

weeeeell …..ukr says all those eligable must report to the enlistment registration places to check that… 200000 could be whisked off to training…. z and v on telegram posted picture of a boom mechanism to protect Sevastopol harbour as recently a report of a submerged automomous weapon … wonder if the Kerch barage boom whatever has been finished……

Posted by: Jo | Oct 15 2023 21:07 utc | 185

Micron | Oct 15 2023 18:25 utc | 62
I’m really fed up of all the bullshitters, all this Zanon crowd bleating about the invincible russian army,
Such revisionism must be robustly resisted.!
Zanon was famous round these parts for his posts of admonishment of the comical failure of the Russian sloSMO.
His signature slogan: “Russia, always one step behind”.
Zanons, didn’t “bleat about the invincibility of the Russians, but their incompetence.
You, yourself, are the “Zanon”.
——-
English Outsider | Oct 15 2023 15:02 utc | 25
Great post.
The question of why the Western politicians did corner Putin in February 2022 still remains unanswered.
The answer:
1/ Because the U$NATO believed-could not conceive of anything else- that Putin couldn’t win.
They categorically, emphatically, and without any micron of doubt, believed the Sanctions From Hell™️ would destroy Russia within weeks.
The belief in the Magic Power of Sanctions endured right up to the Spring Offensive.
2/ The equal unwavering belief that U$NATO would prevail military.
That the Russian army was drunk, disorganised, poorly trained, lacking discipline, with limited, “Soviet-era” armaments, and 1000% incompetent was another absolute article of faith across the politico-defence cohort.
The Kagan-Nuland nexus (including Kofman-Lee-McFaul) and ISW completely controlled the narrative. Even now ISW is cited as a source on Ukrainian “progress”.
Many millions, perhaps billions, were spent controlling the media and boostering NAFO.
It’s taken 500k dead Ukrainians and a complete depletion of U$NATO munitions (and failure after failure of wunderwaffles) and the obvious defeat of the SpringSummerFall offensive for the U$NATO hubris to wither, and the frightening, cold reality of Russian capability and capacity to begin to be grasped.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 15 2023 21:11 utc | 187

English Outsider | Oct 15 2023 15:02 utc | 25
***I’d always assumed that the action around Kiev early in the SMO was a sideshow.***
A distraction while the real objectives were successfully reached — several bio-weapon labs and a couple of nuclear sites.
The western mass-media has to stick to pretending Kiev was a serious target, because if they stop pimping that fallacy they will have to say what Russian forces were actually aiming for (since obviously there must have been something) and they certainly don’t want to admit what that was.

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 15 2023 21:18 utc | 189

Why don’t the Russians consider an “attack plan” and an offensive to actually take the territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson & Zaporozhia?
Posted by: Julian | Oct 15 2023 15:03 utc | 26
####
Many have pondered this question.
My suspicions are these:
1. That Putin takes the long long view of The Ukraine Problem. Long term solutions often take long term conflicts. Quick blitzs often resolve nothing in the long term. He does not want a reprieve, a ceasefire, then a reprise. He wants deep and permanent, organic national transformation to the core. It’s about exhaustion of the enemies. Donbass oblasts are a small factor in the Ukraine Problem.
2. His methodology seems to be give Kiev and NATO and the West plenty of time and rope to hang themselves. Once he knew Kiev and backers would not surrender, he settled in for the Slow-Mo.
3. The Ukraine fighting is only one part, one front of hegemon dismantling.
4. He has not declared “war on Ukraine”. “Active defence” is a more clever way to reduce RF losses plus achieve 1 & 2 & 3 above.
5. Big offensives are just what NATO wants, to stimulate their boots on the ground. Escalation is a game Putin WILL NOT play. He waits to see what “they” will do, then adjusts play accordingly. And he knows that the fickle West will tire of Ukraine.
6. Ukraine/NATO spent 8 years building a geographically advantageous anti-Russian wall right where RF *appears* stuck. To march west is less efficient before the AFU is thoroughly depleted.
7. In short, Putin is letting Kiev and friends lose their own SMO and fuck up their own future!

Posted by: Sandy Freeman | Oct 15 2023 21:20 utc | 191

Posted by: Micron | Oct 15 2023 18:25 utc | 62
That’s due to all the Soviet era underground bunkers and tunnels and then several years of U.S./NATO help to build up and fortify the area.
But yes, Ukraine forces were totally underestimated and they still have a big advantage in manpower in the war theater. So people counting them out are not looking at the reality of the situation. This war will take several years more.

Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 15 2023 21:21 utc | 193

One reason the war deid not end quickly? Because the Russian military made Putin promises it could not keep. I was fully expecting Russia to simply render the krainian communications, transportation and untility networks lame long enough for Russia to sweep in and occupy Kiev and other key loctions, making further resistance futile.
Instead, they totally fell short of their objectives and made clear how corrupt and incompetent their military and logistical system is.

Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Oct 15 2023 21:21 utc | 195

Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 19:33 utc | 76
Thanks again. Incisive and elegant.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 15 2023 21:30 utc | 197

Colleagues, Arestovich confirmed all the insights from the adequate telegram community about the mistakes of the Office of the President, etc.
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Arestovich is a twat, a smart twat and and evil twat. He seriously thinks of himself as President material and has thus criticised Z from the beginning. He is the last person to “save” Ukraine. Lol. Dunno why anyone gives him air.

Posted by: Sandy Freeman | Oct 15 2023 21:32 utc | 199