Putin confirms “new attack plans” by Ukraine:
https://tass.com/politics/1690789
“We know that in certain areas of combat operations the opposing side is nevertheless preparing new active offensive operations. We see this, and we know about it. And we are also reacting accordingly,”

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 13:00 utc | 3

I suspect there is a great attack soon coming on the Ukrainian front. I just don’t think it is going to be in quite the same direction that Mr. Zelensky and his Washington DC/EU supporters now think.
How do you say, “Our turn” in Russian?

Posted by: Packard | Oct 15 2023 13:03 utc | 5

It appears at least one plan was a Crimean attack:
“MOSCOW, October 15. /TASS/. A Russian Su-27 jet has stopped a US RQ-4B Global Hawk surveillance drone from crossing into Russian airspace over the Black Sea, the Russian Defense Ministry said.”
The last time the large missile assault on Crimea by NATO ( no point calling it Ukraine anymore) it was followed after surveillance & targeting capabilities via US drone.
Appears Russia is not having it this time.
https://tass.com/defense/1690853

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 13:07 utc | 7

Is this all a plan? One would have to assume that Russia, China, Iran and others are ok with the current state of affairs. There is a small window of superior technology and western weakness that can now be exploited. IMO this is it. AFU is on the run… time to open another front. A hypersonic blast to a posturing US carrier may be on the cards. Yes, the Ukrainians are kaput…gone… and now for something completely different. Sorrowful that the children are being murdered but perhaps 1000 now rather than a million over time if this bastard west continues it’s evil ways. I’m still staggered by the collective cognitive dissonance. What will it take for them to wake? Probably a thermal flash but I sincerely hope not. My ten cents.

Posted by: Trincolo | Oct 15 2023 13:10 utc | 9

In the Orekov pocket, Russians are pushing AFU back from Verbovne, retaking trenches. Many AFU surrenders, according to Dima. Looks like all the gains from the great counteroffensive will be erased before long.

Posted by: Mike R | Oct 15 2023 13:21 utc | 11

It occurred to me that the US reaction to Ukraine in particular points to the sad future awaiting America. Once upon a time, the US had strong leadership that could carry diplomacy forward (for better or worse) but that sort of leadership is gone. No more Nixon or Eisenhower. Not even a Jimmy Carter (Camp David Accords)
Now,it’s reactive “mobs” demanding action with no particular strategy. Just grabbing headlines and spewing Russophobia or hate against China or whoever’s in the crosshairs this month.
Endless war is the result – at least until US debt crashes. After that, international isolation as nations form their own alliances.

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 15 2023 13:37 utc | 13

NOTAM – a notice to all MoonofAlabamers – officially, the RF “offensive” is called “active defence”.

Posted by: whirlX | Oct 15 2023 13:38 utc | 15

“offensive” is called “active defence”.
Posted by: whirlX | Oct 15 2023 13:38 utc | 9
If this is still part the Gerasimov doctrine (or his theoretical body of work) then my hat off to the man. I believe he will go down in military history as one of the greats.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 15 2023 13:44 utc | 17

Former advisor to Zelensky calls for his resignation. Not surprised about this. As mentioned before Z’s days are numbered.

Posted by: AI | Oct 15 2023 13:44 utc | 19

Apparently, the latest is that:
“Russia Will Survive a Defeat in Ukraine. It’s Time to Prepare for What Comes Next.”
So, Russia is defeated in Ukraine yet still stands as a Nation, so we must “deal with it”…
1) accepts zero “regime change” and zero chance of populace uprisings.
Accepts even a post “Putin” leader would change policy.
Highlights of “plan”:
“Retarding the spread of weapons of mass destruction and containing Iranian and North Korean nuclear ambitions will require U.S.-Russian cooperation.
Russia will also remain a critical component of European security. The immediate question is whether Europe’s security architecture needs to be redesigned to protect the continent from Russia over the long term, or whether it might prove possible to build that architecture in cooperation with Russia once the acute phase of the war in Ukraine has passed. “
“In short, the United States will not be able to ignore Russia. But, contrary to current thinking in Washington today, the challenge is not to contain Russia. Instead, we need to figure out how to harness its power for American purposes in the global arena.”
“To start, while there is good reason to seek to weaken Russia so that it lacks the capacity to invade any European country, seeking to cripple the Russian economy actually jeopardizes American interests.”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/15/thomas-graham-russia-ukraine-00121247
Very long in-depth analysis of one goal:
“Please, please, please… let’s go back to how things “used to be”… please…please…let’s “contain China together!!”…
“Let’s rule ME together!!”… please…please…”Let’s develop Artic together”…
Why do I have a sinking feeling Russia would actually agree at some point? I guess because it seems when it comes to “business”, both Russia and China are very forgiving.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 13:49 utc | 21

>> Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 13:49 utc | 12
>> Why do I have a sinking feeling Russia would actually agree at some point? I guess because it seems when it comes to “business”, both Russia and China are very forgiving.
A good chunk of Russian leadership just wants to strip-mine the country for resources and is more than willing to cut any deal that allows them to vacation and educate their children in Europe, keep their offshore bank accounts, etc. It’s a shame, but the mismatch between interests of the people and its leadership is apparently just the natural state of the human condition, interrupted fleetingly every however-many generations by the rise of a good and competent leader, only for banking interests to re-entrench themselves not long after.

Posted by: ivanislav | Oct 15 2023 13:59 utc | 23

Posted by: Trincolo | Oct 15 2023 13:10 utc | 6
Nobody’s going to sink an aircraft carrier at this juncture. Wiping a US base in Syria or Iraq off the map would come first.
TG rumor mill says that ground operations around Avdeevka are already slowing down, though perhaps for a brief operational pause rather than giving up. Maybe the Russian fall/winter plan is simply to push hard briefly at important junctures or where the VSU appears weak. It would force a lot of reserve movements that open them up to destruction and/or confusion. TG reports from around Kupyansk suggest a lot of VSU confusion.
Kiev is on the ropes and now the US is deeply distracted. You could make arguments for either now being the time for a decisive strike or more active grinding. Based on behavior so far, Russia probably goes for the latter. It’s simply less costly. My question remains: will the Kremlin move fast enough to take advantage if there is a serious crack in the front or partial collapse of the Kiev government?

Posted by: Lex | Oct 15 2023 14:11 utc | 25

Active defence – probing for weaknesses along the front, surrounding and killing or capturing exhausted enemy positions and groups, looking for any major weaknesses, where several reserve divisions can be inserted on an opportune basis.
All good.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Oct 15 2023 14:11 utc | 27

Ukraine Weekly Update – May be useful to some https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-5d1

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 15 2023 14:29 utc | 29

Summary for October 15, 2023
▪️The main change at the front was the transition of the Russian Armed Forces to large-scale offensive actions. Among the officials, only Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, Nebenzya, voiced this, which, on the other hand, will not give information reasons to the enemy if our offensive stalls
▪️The main visible blow was our actions in the Avdeevsky front. The Russian AF began to crack open the most serious fortified area, filled with concrete for years, with large-scale artillery attacks, and aviation quickly suppressed enemy firepower from the air. Assault units attack the enemy from all sides, while at the same time forming a cauldron. It is already being reported that all roads to Avdeevka are under the fire control of the Russian AF. However, the AFU are transferring entire military units to the direction from other sectors of the front. The most difficult and bloody battles are taking place, and it is impossible to say that the Russian Army is doing everything as smoothly as on paper. The enemy, like us, had learned a lot over the months of fighting
▪️At the same time, the Russian AF became more active in the Svatovo-Kremennaya area of Makeyevka (LPR) and the Torsky ledge. The newly formed 25th OA Central Military District was brought into battle; the advance was up to several kms
▪️The Kupyansk section also began to move: the enemy is being pushed out of its positions at Liman Pervoy, Sinkovka, and Kupyansk itself has been turned into a fortified area and is being subjected to serious attacks by aviation and artillery
▪️The Zaporozhye front continues to rumble: the enemy is constantly trying to break through on the Rabotino-Novoprokopovka-Verbovoye line. Rabotino, BTW, is still in the gray zone; the AFU failed to gain a foothold in the village with great forces. But it is impossible to say that the enemy is weak. Yes, his much-hyped “counter-offensive” failed, but he still has enough strength. An example of this is the daring actions of his helicopter groups, which were twice documented in the Rabotinsky direction
▪️The Kherson front is characterized by the enemy’s preparation for crossing the Dnieper, no matter how suicidal it may sound. The AFU are counting on a huge number of boats and a fast landing force, which should completely capture the islands within a few hours, then quickly deployable pontoon crossings will be put in place. The latter, the enemy has been skillfully directing for months and immediately removing them across the river. Ingulets, incl. for the passage of columns with wounded from the Zaporozhye Front. Enemy forces are accumulating on its bank of the Dnieper, despite heavy artillery attacks and aerial bombs
▪️In a number of areas, significant reserves of the Russian AF have not been brought into battle. Entire new divisions are still in the rear. The new units are more than half equipped with the latest technology, including T-90
▪️Along the entire front, the Russian AF are forced to maintain large formations to counter the enemy’s sabotage and terrorist activity: from Crimea to Bryansk. The border is being strengthened by troops and regional defense groups, which are already showing their effectiveness. However, the “gestures of goodwill” and “regroupings” of last year are affecting the course of the war as a whole: the enemy is too close to our borders
▪️Despite the shift of the world community’s attention to Israel, Ukraine retains serious combat potential and has a mobilization reserve. If necessary, Kiev is ready to sweep the male population clean to the front, there is active PR for women’s participation in hostilities, and the waters are being tested regarding the prospects for the mobilization of minors
Until the entire military-political leadership of Ukraine and all the benches are liquidated, and the enemy’s logistical potential is not destroyed, the war will be long

https://t.me/sitreports/16443

Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2023 14:33 utc | 31

Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2023 14:33 utc | 20
As always, thank you for your invaluable postings.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 15 2023 14:41 utc | 33

RE: Downsouth:
“Ukraine retains serious combat potential and has a mobilization reserve. If necessary, Kiev is ready to sweep the male population clean to the front, there is active PR for women’s participation in hostilities, and the waters are being tested regarding the prospects for the mobilization of minors”
Most of report shows a viable, strong Ukrainian offense and Defence, but this last report regarding “manpower”, shows not very distance collapse if this is the “reserves” being counted on.
I would have expected a flood of insurgency groups right now instead.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 14:53 utc | 35

RE: Packard @4
“How do you say, “Our turn” in Russian?”
“Наша очередь” 🍻!

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 15:00 utc | 37

Cyberspec Telegram channel reports Ukie losses for the past week…
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/45342
Ukrainian equipments loses from July 11 to October 10 at the low end:
-180 Tanks
– 222 Artillery guns + MLRS
– 491 Armored vehicles
– 9 Air crafts
Ukrainian came to an end and Russian offenses have started.
Note loss of > 220 artillery pieces
Telling… this is an artillery war…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 15 2023 15:02 utc | 39

The Ukrainian conflict. It’s like watching a train crash in slow motion. It’s been like that since February 2022. We see the freight train rumbling along the track. We see the truck jammed athwart the crossing. We know, have always known, what the result will be. The Kiev forces never had a chance and though pointing this out still leads to fury in most of the West, that is how it is.
What did the Western politicians hope to gain by leading us into this crazy venture? What did they want out of the Ukrainian conflict?
I still am not sure. It’s one of the questions that have been nagging me ever since I watched in real time the Western politicians, to use the term attributed to Strobe Talbot, “cornering Putin”.
There’s no doubt they had him cornered. He was down to two options and neither inviting. Risk letting the Kiev forces across the LoC in February 2022 and the results could have been catastrophic. Take any measures to stop them and he was plunged into a full scale confrontation with NATO. And though the resultant “Sanctions from Hell” were ineffectual, a cautious man like Putin would not have been eager to test their effectiveness. We’d got Putin into a position, as we thought, where there were only two choices open to him and both immensely risky and troublesome. Cornered indeed.
The question of why the Western politicians did corner Putin in February 2022 still remains unanswered.
That question came back to me recently when I saw Martyanov discussing the “Battle of Kiev”. That “battle” that never happened and yet one that is still regarded as a real event by most in the West. I submit that question here too.
“There never was any operation conducted to take Kiev, nor any serious intent to surround (blockade) Kiev, and we still don’t know a full set of objectives for Russian paratroopers fighting for Gostomel airfield.” (Andrei Martyanov, October 13th, 2023.)
I’d always assumed that the action around Kiev early in the SMO was a sideshow. The Russian action further south was devastating and presumably had that rapid disabling of the Kiev forces led to capitulation, Russian forces up round Kiev would have been useful to keep order in the capital. And the fighting around Kiev held the Kiev forces in that sector in place.
But that’s speculation. What isn’t speculation is that it was at that time that the entire corps of Western journalists and analysts gave up on journalism and analysis, or on any pretence of that they might previously have attempted, and became straight information warriors. As General Vad said of his own country a little later “We are largely experiencing a coordination of the media, the likes of which I have never experienced before in the Federal Republic.”
I hadn’t experienced that before either. Not in the Iraq war. Not in the case of Afghanistan. Nor Syria. Nor Libya. There were always a few dissident voices around in the main information sources. Not this time round.
So the “Battle for Kiev” was born. An entire invention but one still believed by the great mass of the Western electorates. Putin the cautious and legalistic politician we had known vanished, and “Putin the psychopath” was born. And we must support the fight for freedom against this “Putler” or we would find ourselves having to fight him in Berlin or even London.
An entire country even was invented for us. The previous Ukraine, a country brutally plagued by ultra-nationalists, and deeply divided by split loyalties, ceased to be written about and we were presented with a new Ukraine, a haven of democracy and freedom fighting against an “unprovoked” invader.
Why? Why devote such effort to presenting us with such an entirely false picture?
On February 21st 2022, that date when Putin crossed the Rubicon and recognised the Republics, anyone with an ounce of military and political acumen, and there are such in the Pentagon and in the European defence establishments, knew that this war was a lost war. Before that date – as some Western analysts themselves were saying! – there was a fair chance of avoiding war. But on that date Putin gave up on Minsk 2 and let loose his generals. From then on the result was foreordained and the only question left was how that result would be achieved.
So too with the conduct of the war. After the initial flurry of activity and well before the “Surovikin line” was constructed, well before, it was clear that the Russians had decided to let the Kiev forces come to them and with their superior artillery and generalship kill them as they came. And yet we were treated to “analyses” that attempted to persuade us the Ukrainians were victorious. Only a day or so back I saw articles in the English press, and heard American Generals solemnly asserting, that the obvious and murderous firetrap of Robotino was a thriving enterprise!
Why? Why this storm of information war to convince the electorates of two continents that black was white? And since I don’t for a moment believe that the politicians themselves believed this palpable nonsense, what were they hoping to achieve by unleashing it on us?
I no longer believe, as I did last year, that that February marked a decisive turning point in the fortunes of the West. The West was in decline long before. All the Ukrainian conflict has done is accelerate that decline, make it less easy to adjust to. It’s still wrecked an entire country and left a million of our proxies dead or crippled. And as that response to Martyanov indicates, it’s not just the question of what our politicians hoped to gain from this venture. We were taken along with those politicians.
I don’t think it was solely a matter of the politicians and the media deceiving us. We too, most of us, were as eager for this conflict as our leaders. We in the Western electorates swallowed whole the various fictions, the “Battle of Kiev” and all the rest of it, that were fed to us and we most of us swallowed them eagerly.
As I watched the proxy war fever sweep over Europe last year – the fever’s still there though now abating fast – that was the most troubling question. What sort of people are we, the peoples of the West, that could be led so willingly into so transparently evil a venture as this?

Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 15 2023 15:02 utc | 41

Re: Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 13:00 utc | 3

Putin confirms “new attack plans” by Ukraine:
https://tass.com/politics/1690789
“We know that in certain areas of combat operations the opposing side is nevertheless preparing new active offensive operations. We see this, and we know about it. And we are also reacting accordingly,”

Hmm.
Why don’t the Russians consider an “attack plan” and an offensive to actually take the territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson & Zaporozhia?

Posted by: Julian | Oct 15 2023 15:03 utc | 43

I think we’re all a bit guilty of being impatient in today’s world of minute by minute info feeds. When Russia tries its own offense they are going to find it’s a slog too.
In WWI it went on without end in sight for years then ended overnight when the economy in Germany couldn’t take any more. I see everything is directed at taxing the logistics of the adversary. Advancement requires massive superior firepower, like 10 to 1.

Posted by: Pym of Nantucket | Oct 15 2023 15:06 utc | 45

RE: ivanislav | Oct 15 2023 13:59 utc | 14
I’ve read other post and understand the generational lure of West. I see Russia and China putting business deals on the table anywhere in the world, if able.
But I do think the 100 year Anglo reign is nearing its collapse. It may result in an Iron West curtain, although highly unlikely considering our “globalized” everything.
So all those EU Russian residing elitist will have to face the actual shitty education their doted ones would receive, as well as collapsed infrastructure, and overall police states that their children could fall prey to as well.
I’m suggesting, it will take time, but those EU ideologues will become more choosy with their investments & children’s education.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 15:12 utc | 47

@ Lex, §17:
The Russians shouldn´t miss the opportunity to ´kessel´ Andeyevka, especially given the destruction that Ukrainian base has wrought (and continues to wreak) upon the civilians of Donetsk – the casus belli.
If the Russians can close the Stepnoye-Lastochkine-Severne gap within the month, all they then have to do is switch off all the lights and the taps . . . General Winter will do the rest, à la Stalingrad – and it would minimize Russian lives lost as well as being probably the most efficient way to defeat a dug-in fortress.

Posted by: John Marks | Oct 15 2023 15:28 utc | 49

Posted by: Julian | Oct 15 2023 15:03 utc | 26
###############
I’ve never seen someone complain so much about losing too slowly.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 15 2023 15:34 utc | 51

https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/2023/10/15/ukraine-war-day-599-the-battle-for-avdeevka-part-iv/

Ye Olde Greate Springe Counteroffensive was like (a staggeringly incompetent version of) the Ardennes Offensive the previous iteration of the nazis attempted in December 1944 or the non-nazi German Army attempted in April 1918: it helped the enemy much more than it did the people who launched said offensive. In both cases, BTW, the war ended roughly 6 months after the offensive burnt itself out, and in both cases was preceded by a cascading regine collapse.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 15 2023 15:49 utc | 53

RE: “Why don’t the Russians consider an “attack plan” and an offensive to actually take the territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson & Zaporozhia?”
RE: Julian | Oct 15 2023 15:03 utc | 26
I’m guessing the collapse of the entire line along with the disintegration of the political power regime coming at remarkable speed of late will facilitate that very territorial gain with less life loss & property damage.
Seems like an okay way to go to me.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 15:52 utc | 55

Colleagues, Arestovich confirmed all the insights from the adequate telegram community about the mistakes of the Office of the President, etc.
The reason for this reversal is a change in trend. For example, we insided about the request for “peace” back in November 2022, then support for such a message was about 35-50%, now the request for peace is breaking records, more than 70-80% of the population of Ukraine want an end to the war, as we also predicted a year ago.
Many are simply afraid to talk about it publicly. We have been writing for a long time that in the next elections the message “about peace” will be even more relevant, but Arestovich is the first among Ukrainian politicians/public opinion leaders who indirectly pumps up this message, trying to use it to boost his rating.
He also upgrades the anti-mobilization case. Many have long noticed, and we wrote about this, that Ze is repeating the fate of “gunpowder.”
But it is worth understanding that Arestovich is a project of the Office of the President, personally of Ermak and oligarch Akhmetov.
Ermak understands that Zelensky may not “pull out the stroller” and leave on his own or under pressure from the West. This is why the OP, together with Akhmetov and Pinchuk, are preparing their puppets, who are allowed to go beyond the red lines. If “ordinary Vasya” began to criticize Ze-government like this, then he would be given suspicion under articles 110,111,112, etc.
The main thing in this is the fact that Ermak and the oligarchs began to consider Zelensky a “lame duck”, and this is the first sign that “The Sand Castle” will soon collapse.

https://t.me/legitimniy/16480

Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2023 15:53 utc | 57

Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 15 2023 15:02 utc | 25
We obviously don’t know the full plan. My assumption is that Kiev had multiple facets. First, it was a feint that focused attention on Kiev rather than where Russia’s actual strategic interest was. That is, the south and the Crimean landbridge. While western media was focused on the Kiev operation and the Ukrainian military was too (because it had to be), Russian forces captured huge tracts of southern Ukraine.
Second, if there had been an uprising of Ukrainians, either the public or the military, forces around Kiev could have supported it. We don’t know how Russia would have progressed if some things around kiev developed differently either. Perhaps Russia would have tried to take kiev with reinforcements if the situation developed in a favorable way.
Third, we probably need to take Putin at his word and that the withdrawal from around Kiev was a goodwill gesture to end the conflict via negotiation.
We should look at all Russia has done and is doing not with the idea that there is a “plan” that either succeeds or fails but that there is a general objective with a suite of options. Choosing from that suite is a matter of tactical and strategic context. The operation around Kiev almost certainly fits in that scenario.

Posted by: Lex | Oct 15 2023 15:55 utc | 59

The degradation of the agricultural sector has become irreversible. The harvest is falling, losses are growing, the inability to sell their goods reduces their price, which leads to the bankruptcy of farmers.
Thus, Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Rada Denis Marchuk said that the working capital of Ukrainian farmers is being depleted, since during wartime export logistics became significantly more expensive, and prices for agricultural products, on the contrary, decreased.
“Logistics routes today are too expensive. Sometimes transporting agricultural products takes up 50% of its cost. Also, the price within the country for grains is below cost. Even for sunflower, the price is unprofitable. Although many farmers have relied on sowing oilseeds with the hope of reaching production costs, with each it becomes more difficult every month,” he said.
According to him, a way out of the situation could be legislative changes in the field of financing farmers, which would make it possible to attract funds to work, grow products, sell them and pay loans, interest on them and attract foreign exchange earnings for the state. At the same time, Marchuk emphasized that “without stable export routes and financing, we will see a wave of farm closures.”

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20129

Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2023 15:55 utc | 61

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 15 2023 14:41 utc | 21
No problem

Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2023 15:56 utc | 63

Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 13:49 utc | 12
Thanks, interesting link.
“Harnessing Russia’s power for American purposes in the global arena.” – that sounds quite rational + strategic, from a western pov. NATO is too small + powerless to continue being a global hegemon, but maybe together with Russia…
Of course, it doesn’t sounds very probable atm. But longer term?
It struck me the other day that the entire Ukraine conflict has been highly personalized in the West.
Lots of talk of ‘Putin’s war’, ‘Putin’s army’ etc. So, if we imagine that there’ll be a successor at some point, western attitude towards Moscow could change over night. The entire “evil aggressive Russia” thing could be blamed on Putin, and even if Moscow’s policies remain 99% the same, cooperation (against China or whoever else) would suddenly be possible. All the more if the new man in the Kremlin is presented (to the western public) as an “anti-Putin”…
(Any similarities to 1945 Germany are purely coincidental, of course.)

Posted by: smuks | Oct 15 2023 15:58 utc | 65

RE: “The main thing in this is the fact that Ermak and the oligarchs began to consider Zelensky a “lame duck”, and this is the first sign that “The Sand Castle” will soon collapse.”
RE:Down South | Oct 15 2023 15:53 utc | 33
I already posted one article from US CFR toad calling for “reshaping” Russian relations.
There is frankly a flood of articles of late.
I’ll post another, but at this point, it’s really difficult to gauge if this is betrayal or attempt to make RUSSIA let down its guard?
Not sure, anyways another to support your post:
https://www.rt.com/business/584960-western-partners-losing-focus-ukraine-aid/
“Speaking on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings in Marrakech, Sergey Marchenko said Kiev is having to make “twice the effort right now to convince our partners to provide us with support compared to the last annual meetings” in spring.
“I see a lot of tiredness, I see a lot of weakness among our partners, they would like to forget about the war but the war is still ongoing, full-scale,” the minister said, referring to the conflict with Russia.”

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 15 2023 16:03 utc | 67

@Down South 33:
“Repeating the fate of gunpowder”?

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 15 2023 16:06 utc | 69

We should look at all Russia has done and is doing not with the idea that there is a “plan” that either succeeds or fails but that there is a general objective with a suite of options. Choosing from that suite is a matter of tactical and strategic context. The operation around Kiev almost certainly fits in that scenario.
Posted by: Lex | Oct 15 2023 15:55 utc | 34
Yes, a good strategy works in many ways, has options based on what the enemy may decide to do, not just what you think he is likely to do. Russia gained the advantage of surprise, grabbed what it wanted, pinned down Ukraine forces around Keiv, and provoked the Ukrainian forces to react exposing what Ukraine/the West would do, leading to what has followed. And it made the west angry, not smart.

Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 15 2023 16:08 utc | 71

Our Leaders would rather kill a million innocents than to admit defeat.
Even worse, Rather, they would have a million killed in order to simply “save face”.
All eyes and ears on Gaza and off Ukraine.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Oct 15 2023 16:13 utc | 73

English Outsider | Oct 15 2023 15:02 utc | 25
It’s all about Crimea IMO. NATO nearly had it until Putin spoiled the plan.
I was amazed at how fast the blue and yellow flags appeared on FB. I had to unfriend quite a few people.

Posted by: dh | Oct 15 2023 16:18 utc | 75

English Outsider | Oct 15 2023 15:02 utc | 25
Generally agree with what you write (as most everyone here).
The non-battle for Kiev and its misrepresentation in the West is interesting indeed – there seems to have been hope that the war could be ended quickly, before it really began, by threatening full-scale invasion and negotiating a ceasefire. Even if the chance was slim, it was worth taking risks imo, as it could have avoided 100.000s of deaths. The troops would’ve been needed to secure Kiev, as you write.
As for ‘why’ the West did this:
One goal was certainly to weaken Russia. Whether that was ever realistic, idk.
But the main strategic goal, esp. for London, was to split the EU from Russia. This has largely succeeded; the continent is militarily and economically far more dependent on US/UK now, which can be used as leverage for any future negotiations (think post-Brexit trade relations).
It’s worth noting that BoJo was about to lose his job, and the Ukrainian offensive on Donbas coincided with the G20 FinMin/CB meeting, where concessions from US/UK may have been expected.
On a side note, the 1999 war against Serbia/ Yugoslavia had a similar level of media propaganda. Maybe not quite as extreme, partly because the monopoly of legacy media was still largely intact; there were few “alternative” sources of information. It was, after all, the first NATO war of aggression, openly ignoring international law + Russia’s position.

Posted by: smuks | Oct 15 2023 16:19 utc | 77

@43
19th century, like this, Balkan was a trip point to detain Russia.
1858crimea became the locus of pushing Russia around.
u$$a losing time and moment.

Posted by: paddy | Oct 15 2023 16:30 utc | 79

Meanwhile in Clown World, RT reports the following failed standup comedy act by Pinchface Kuleba:
“You owe us’ – Ukrainian Foreign Minister to Germany
“Dmitry Kuleba said he’s been trying to instill sense of guilt among officials in Berlin in citing events of WWI and WWII”
—Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t Germany on the pro-Banderite side in WWII, and fighting the Russian “oppressors” of Ukrainian national aspirations in WWI?

Posted by: malenkov | Oct 15 2023 16:36 utc | 81

Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2023 14:33 utc | 20
As always, thank you for your invaluable postings.
Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 15 2023 14:41 utc | 21
Ditto for me.

Posted by: canuck | Oct 15 2023 16:40 utc | 83

“Repeating the fate of gunpowder”?
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 15 2023 16:06 utc | 39

“Порох” is the derogatery name for Порошенко, (Poroshenko) in Russian it goes for “gunpowder”.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Oct 15 2023 16:41 utc | 85

Posted by: Poslan1 | Oct 15 2023 16:41 utc | 47
thank you, i was trying to figure out what gunpowder meant and trying unsuccessfully to somehow relate it to the gunpowder plot

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 15 2023 16:44 utc | 87

English Outsider | Oct 15 2023 15:02 utc | 25
It’s all about Crimea IMO. NATO nearly had it until Putin spoiled the plan.
I was amazed at how fast the blue and yellow flags appeared on FB. I had to unfriend quite a few people.
Posted by: dh | Oct 15 2023 16:18 utc | 42

Yes, the lynchpin of the neocons grand agenda for Russia was to establish a NATO presence in Crimea, the eviction of the Russians from their naval base in Sevastopol, and ultimately control of the Black Sea. Putin foiled all that when he held elections in Crimea. The grand agenda to dismantle Russia was lost then and there. Still they persisted with the hope that sanctions and war losses would culminate in Russian people rising up and ousting Putin. But the playbook that worked in so many smaller countries wasn’t going to work in Russia. Call it megalomania, delusional thinking, hubris – the neocons never give up, they just move on to a new grand scheme, each one more ridiculous than the last. As English Outsider points out, it really does say something about the mental state of Western people. Exploring that is like walking into a swamp at night.

Posted by: Mike R | Oct 15 2023 16:45 utc | 89

Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 15 2023 15:02 utc | 25
Thank you for your erudite post; I do have one quibble. Our Western Politicians are not ‘leaders’ they are but the ‘messenger boys’- with a nod to ‘Apocalypse Now’ .
The real leaders don’t run in elections.
The City of London (not the UK!) gives the West its marching orders.

Posted by: canuck | Oct 15 2023 16:49 utc | 91

Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2023 14:33 utc | 20
As always, thank you for your invaluable postings.
Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 15 2023 14:41 utc | 21
Ditto for me.
Posted by: canuck | Oct 15 2023 16:40 utc | 46
Me too.

Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 15 2023 16:49 utc | 93

But the main strategic goal, esp. for London, was to split the EU from Russia. This has largely succeeded; the continent is militarily and economically far more dependent on US/UK now, which can be used as leverage for any future negotiations (think post-Brexit trade relations).
Posted by: smuks | Oct 15 2023 16:19 utc | 43
This is commonly written up as a good thing in the United States, and I believe it is the opposite. Western Europe is our only large and usually reliable ally. By damaging Europe to the point of impotence, our ability to retain global hegemony is reduced. Selfishness when carried to its extreme isn’t a strength, but a weakness, and our attitude toward Europe displays that level of selfishness by the neocon class. Much the same excess of selfishness can be seen in how we manage the proxy war with Russia. We aspire to hurt Russia so much that we damage ourselves more than Russia with the sanctions, and the same can be said for how we have Ukraine fighting the war. Treating Ukrainian lives as being of no consequence does more to weaken Ukraine than Russia, and thus weakens our side more than the Russian side.

Posted by: Jmaas | Oct 15 2023 16:58 utc | 95

Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 15 2023 15:02 utc | 25
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++/+++++++
Perfect analysis.

Posted by: AI | Oct 15 2023 17:16 utc | 97

One would have to assume that Russia, China, Iran and others are ok with the current state of affairs. There is a small window of superior technology and western weakness that can now be exploited. IMO this is it. AFU is on the run… time to open another front. A hypersonic blast to a posturing US carrier may be on the cards.
Posted by: Trincolo | Oct 15 2023 13:10 utc | 6
Ok or not ok they are powerless. What can they change exactly? How can you think Russia will hit a carrier when they’re not allowed to hit a little drone, they moved their ships far away from Odessa because they’re not allowed to remove any threat and don’t even act upset after NS or Crimea bridge was blown up? “Please UN, stop Zeli’s attacks on ZNPP!!! Please UN, stop cluster bombs in cities!” is all they did or will do at least until 2025, as actor Shoigu explained. Everyone sees without any power what is happening in Gaza, so is Russia for what is happening in Russia or China for what is happening in Taiwan, India, Vietnam or Japan.

Posted by: rk | Oct 15 2023 17:31 utc | 99