Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 12, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-236

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

News of the day: The Biden administration is throwing Ukraine under the bus:

United States National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the support provided to Ukraine, currently at war with Russia, is not going to be indefinite. He added US is running out of money for Ukraine unless Congress approves additional funding

“In the near term, we’ve got appropriations and authorities for both Ukraine and for Israel,” Kirby said during the daily press briefing. “But you don’t want to be trying to bake in long-term support when you’re at the end of the rope.”

“And in Ukraine, on the Ukraine funding, we’re coming near to the end of the rope,” he added. “Today we announced $200 million, and we’ll keep that aid going as long as we can, but it’s not going to be indefinite.”

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

– Didn’t the US the size of the corruption in the Ukraine ?

Posted by: Mr. Market | Oct 13 2023 22:04 utc | 201

– Didn’t the US the size of the corruption in the Ukraine ?

Posted by: Mr. Market | Oct 13 2023 22:04 utc | 202

Correction:
-Didn’t the US like the giant amount of corruption in the Ukraine ?

Posted by: Mr. Market | Oct 13 2023 22:05 utc | 203

Correction:
-Didn’t the US like the giant amount of corruption in the Ukraine ?

Posted by: Mr. Market | Oct 13 2023 22:05 utc | 204

FREE DRINKS TONIGHT FROM 7PM GMT
FREE DRINKS TONIGHT FROM 7PM GMT
To celebrate Russia’s move on Avdeevka
ALL WELCOME

Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 14 2023 0:44 utc | 205

FREE DRINKS TONIGHT FROM 7PM GMT
FREE DRINKS TONIGHT FROM 7PM GMT
To celebrate Russia’s move on Avdeevka
ALL WELCOME

Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 14 2023 0:44 utc | 206

Some videos for today.
Russian airborne troops fire ATGMs at enemy position:
https://rutube.ru/video/b132d07e9fc8bdc1a1abd5a605314ced/
Russian Lancet destroys enemy RM70 launcher:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231014_002802_469:5
Russian ATGMs destroy enemy tanks near Rabotino on the Zaporozhye front:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231013_180222_113:d
Russian Mi-28 conducts airstrike in Kherson oblast:
https://rutube.ru/video/b5cc226cfa9fe4c44d6fd970430702e8/
Russian Tyulpan heavy self-propelled mortar fires on enemy position near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/546d08eacf04d69a7e4c7c67370ae76a/

Posted by: Nate | Oct 14 2023 1:40 utc | 207

Some videos for today.
Russian airborne troops fire ATGMs at enemy position:
https://rutube.ru/video/b132d07e9fc8bdc1a1abd5a605314ced/
Russian Lancet destroys enemy RM70 launcher:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231014_002802_469:5
Russian ATGMs destroy enemy tanks near Rabotino on the Zaporozhye front:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231013_180222_113:d
Russian Mi-28 conducts airstrike in Kherson oblast:
https://rutube.ru/video/b5cc226cfa9fe4c44d6fd970430702e8/
Russian Tyulpan heavy self-propelled mortar fires on enemy position near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/546d08eacf04d69a7e4c7c67370ae76a/

Posted by: Nate | Oct 14 2023 1:40 utc | 208

Ukraine Weekly Update – May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-5d1

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 14 2023 6:32 utc | 209

Ukraine Weekly Update – May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-5d1

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 14 2023 6:32 utc | 210

📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report for the Morning of 14 October 2023; pub. 07:19📍
▪️ The RF Armed Forces continue to break through the defence of the #Avdeyevka fortified area. The artillery fire from our guns continues unabated and aviation is constantly at work. From the northwest, the RF Armed Forces are advancing with heavy fighting from the direction of #Kamenka, from the southwest there is a strike from the direction of #Vodyanoye, from the southeast, from the direction of #Opytnoye. Our troops are fighting for #Berdychi, and it was reported that our forces have been consolidated on the outskirts of the settlement. There is a plan to tighten the ring in all directions around the #Avdeyevka fortified area. Powerful concrete fortifications of the AFU are creating difficulties. The enemy is transferring reserves.
▪️ In the #Kherson direction, both sides conducted artillery shelling. They write from our shores that the actions of the 8th Guards Artillery Regiment and military pilots are being noted for the better. Targets were hit within the day in #Berislav, #Kherson, as well as in enemy rear areas. However, the enemy continues preparations for crossing the #Dnieper.
▪️ On the #Zaporozhye front, the AFU attempted offensive actions, but did not succeed. An interesting element is the audacious use by the AFU of helicopters at ultra-low altitudes in the #Rabotino – #Novoprokopovka – #Verbovoye sack. A possible solution could be the assignment of our MANPADS crews to forward units.
▪️ In the #Kupyansk direction, the RF Armed Forces are conducting an offensive near Liman Pervoye (1st). The advance is up to 1 kilometre, 10 enemy strongholds have been occupied. Heavy flamethrower systems are actively used.
▪️ Yesterday in the Black Sea the AFU used an underwater drone to attack the patrol ship Pavel Derzhavin. In the #Belgorod region, the enemy shelled the outskirts of #Demidovka and #Grafovka – Krasnoyaruzha district. In #Kursk region, Kozino, Rylsky district, and Popovo-Lezhachi, Glushkovsky district. In the #DPR, four civilians were wounded by enemy shelling.

https://t.me/sitreports/16385

Posted by: Down South | Oct 14 2023 6:34 utc | 211

📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report for the Morning of 14 October 2023; pub. 07:19📍
▪️ The RF Armed Forces continue to break through the defence of the #Avdeyevka fortified area. The artillery fire from our guns continues unabated and aviation is constantly at work. From the northwest, the RF Armed Forces are advancing with heavy fighting from the direction of #Kamenka, from the southwest there is a strike from the direction of #Vodyanoye, from the southeast, from the direction of #Opytnoye. Our troops are fighting for #Berdychi, and it was reported that our forces have been consolidated on the outskirts of the settlement. There is a plan to tighten the ring in all directions around the #Avdeyevka fortified area. Powerful concrete fortifications of the AFU are creating difficulties. The enemy is transferring reserves.
▪️ In the #Kherson direction, both sides conducted artillery shelling. They write from our shores that the actions of the 8th Guards Artillery Regiment and military pilots are being noted for the better. Targets were hit within the day in #Berislav, #Kherson, as well as in enemy rear areas. However, the enemy continues preparations for crossing the #Dnieper.
▪️ On the #Zaporozhye front, the AFU attempted offensive actions, but did not succeed. An interesting element is the audacious use by the AFU of helicopters at ultra-low altitudes in the #Rabotino – #Novoprokopovka – #Verbovoye sack. A possible solution could be the assignment of our MANPADS crews to forward units.
▪️ In the #Kupyansk direction, the RF Armed Forces are conducting an offensive near Liman Pervoye (1st). The advance is up to 1 kilometre, 10 enemy strongholds have been occupied. Heavy flamethrower systems are actively used.
▪️ Yesterday in the Black Sea the AFU used an underwater drone to attack the patrol ship Pavel Derzhavin. In the #Belgorod region, the enemy shelled the outskirts of #Demidovka and #Grafovka – Krasnoyaruzha district. In #Kursk region, Kozino, Rylsky district, and Popovo-Lezhachi, Glushkovsky district. In the #DPR, four civilians were wounded by enemy shelling.

https://t.me/sitreports/16385

Posted by: Down South | Oct 14 2023 6:34 utc | 212

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Kotenok on the Situation⚡️
🔹1. Kiev has recovered from the shock of the Hamas attack on #Israel, and has cheered up, having received new guarantees that the West will not leave Russia alone.
🔹2. The enemy is preparing to resume active offensives. Two brigades of marines formed from residents of #Odessa, #Nikolayev, #Kherson, Krivoy Rog regions have been withdrawn to increase their combat effectiveness. All of them were released on leave. From the point of view of rotation it is a correct system – withdrawal of a unit from lbs and leave for people to have a rest. Two brigades are just concentrating on the other side of the Dnieper.
Recently, artillery strikes and “HIMARS” from the right bank have become more frequent, and the movement of light-motorised watercraft has intensified. There is only a little bit left before the “cold” water, although it is not August water anymore.
🔹3. Reinforcements are being brought to the #Verbovoye – #Rabotino – #Orekhovo – #Staromayorskoye area. Formed ca. 10 assault groups (squads). I do not exclude that they will try to synchronise two strikes. Which one will be the main one is a question for intelligence. I still believe that they may try to capture #Energodar.
🔹4. #Avdeyevka sector, everything is serious. #Avdeyevka is not #Bakhmut. Engineering and fortification facilities in and around the city are serious. We are stuck on #Berdychi. One of the main tasks at the moment was to hold the “tongue” hanging over #Avdeyevka. The advance was good, the Khokhol didn’t expect it, they gave them a hard time there.
🔹5. On #Svatovo – #Kremennaya, mutual blows of tactical value “crawl in – crawl out” without significant changes in the configuration of the frontline.
🔹6. At the #Kleshcheyevka – #Andreyevka – #Kurdyumovka line the intensity slightly decreased. At the moment, the main events are taking place around #Donetsk, where the enemy is hastily transferring reserves from #Artyomovsk and other directions.
🔹7. The decrease in the enemy’s activity in the #Belgorod direction can be linked to the conditions of Kiev’s “partners” who do not welcome actions on the “indigenous” territory of the Russian Federation. Kiev shows its own initiative here, sending to the border area under the cover of the Russian Volunteer Corps flag Polish mercenaries, PMC operators (Germans, Poles, Belarusians, Russians, British, formally there are no Khokhols there). They try to raids, they are caught and shot there. Border warfare.
🔹8. There is a tendency to general fading, which we can come to in 1-1.5 months. But everything depends on the Israeli conflict. Increase in its intensity = fading in the Ukrainian theatre. If not, perhaps even we will try to attack, after which everything may quiet down until spring. Spring will bring at least a year of active hostilities.
🔹9. If #Israel strikes #Iran, the situation breaks down globally. Conflicts that were thought to be resolved long ago begin to flare up. The world is in motion, entering a period of wars and conflicts, including civil conflicts. The bifurcation period is from 30 to 100 years. So it’s just beginning.
📜 Voenkor Kotenok

https://t.me/sitreports/16376

Posted by: Down South | Oct 14 2023 6:35 utc | 213

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Kotenok on the Situation⚡️
🔹1. Kiev has recovered from the shock of the Hamas attack on #Israel, and has cheered up, having received new guarantees that the West will not leave Russia alone.
🔹2. The enemy is preparing to resume active offensives. Two brigades of marines formed from residents of #Odessa, #Nikolayev, #Kherson, Krivoy Rog regions have been withdrawn to increase their combat effectiveness. All of them were released on leave. From the point of view of rotation it is a correct system – withdrawal of a unit from lbs and leave for people to have a rest. Two brigades are just concentrating on the other side of the Dnieper.
Recently, artillery strikes and “HIMARS” from the right bank have become more frequent, and the movement of light-motorised watercraft has intensified. There is only a little bit left before the “cold” water, although it is not August water anymore.
🔹3. Reinforcements are being brought to the #Verbovoye – #Rabotino – #Orekhovo – #Staromayorskoye area. Formed ca. 10 assault groups (squads). I do not exclude that they will try to synchronise two strikes. Which one will be the main one is a question for intelligence. I still believe that they may try to capture #Energodar.
🔹4. #Avdeyevka sector, everything is serious. #Avdeyevka is not #Bakhmut. Engineering and fortification facilities in and around the city are serious. We are stuck on #Berdychi. One of the main tasks at the moment was to hold the “tongue” hanging over #Avdeyevka. The advance was good, the Khokhol didn’t expect it, they gave them a hard time there.
🔹5. On #Svatovo – #Kremennaya, mutual blows of tactical value “crawl in – crawl out” without significant changes in the configuration of the frontline.
🔹6. At the #Kleshcheyevka – #Andreyevka – #Kurdyumovka line the intensity slightly decreased. At the moment, the main events are taking place around #Donetsk, where the enemy is hastily transferring reserves from #Artyomovsk and other directions.
🔹7. The decrease in the enemy’s activity in the #Belgorod direction can be linked to the conditions of Kiev’s “partners” who do not welcome actions on the “indigenous” territory of the Russian Federation. Kiev shows its own initiative here, sending to the border area under the cover of the Russian Volunteer Corps flag Polish mercenaries, PMC operators (Germans, Poles, Belarusians, Russians, British, formally there are no Khokhols there). They try to raids, they are caught and shot there. Border warfare.
🔹8. There is a tendency to general fading, which we can come to in 1-1.5 months. But everything depends on the Israeli conflict. Increase in its intensity = fading in the Ukrainian theatre. If not, perhaps even we will try to attack, after which everything may quiet down until spring. Spring will bring at least a year of active hostilities.
🔹9. If #Israel strikes #Iran, the situation breaks down globally. Conflicts that were thought to be resolved long ago begin to flare up. The world is in motion, entering a period of wars and conflicts, including civil conflicts. The bifurcation period is from 30 to 100 years. So it’s just beginning.
📜 Voenkor Kotenok

https://t.me/sitreports/16376

Posted by: Down South | Oct 14 2023 6:35 utc | 214

Our source reports that Zelensky’s trip to Odessa today is a sign that the region is being prepared for direct defense.
Strengthening air defense under the pretext of protecting ports is a legend. The main goal of strengthening air defense in the region is completely different.
There has been a lot of information that the Odessa elite and local authorities of the region are doing their best to covertly sabotage the decisions of the Office of the President. At first, they attributed this to corruption schemes and attempts by the elite to stir up money, but with the intensification of rumors that the Russian Armed Forces were preparing an Odessa special operation with an airborne landing, these rumors took on a completely different color.
That is why the SBU is now rampant in Odessa and is catching everyone who is at least somewhat neutral about the “Russian history of the region” and pro-Russian views. It doesn’t matter if you have something or not, the security forces will bring you theirs.
That’s why the OP wants to completely replace everyone in Odessa with conditionally “Kyiv” or “Lviv” ones.
The battle for Odessa is a new chapter in the Ukrainian crisis.

https://t.me/legitimniy/16476

Posted by: Down South | Oct 14 2023 6:37 utc | 215

Our source reports that Zelensky’s trip to Odessa today is a sign that the region is being prepared for direct defense.
Strengthening air defense under the pretext of protecting ports is a legend. The main goal of strengthening air defense in the region is completely different.
There has been a lot of information that the Odessa elite and local authorities of the region are doing their best to covertly sabotage the decisions of the Office of the President. At first, they attributed this to corruption schemes and attempts by the elite to stir up money, but with the intensification of rumors that the Russian Armed Forces were preparing an Odessa special operation with an airborne landing, these rumors took on a completely different color.
That is why the SBU is now rampant in Odessa and is catching everyone who is at least somewhat neutral about the “Russian history of the region” and pro-Russian views. It doesn’t matter if you have something or not, the security forces will bring you theirs.
That’s why the OP wants to completely replace everyone in Odessa with conditionally “Kyiv” or “Lviv” ones.
The battle for Odessa is a new chapter in the Ukrainian crisis.

https://t.me/legitimniy/16476

Posted by: Down South | Oct 14 2023 6:37 utc | 216

▶️ Reinforced concrete fortresses. Avdeevka
Some people do not clearly understand what the Avdeevsky fortified area is, at best imagining footage of urban battles, and this is wrong, we are correcting it.
The enemy built this fortification non-stop for 9 years, all important strategic positions were poured into reinforced concrete, a whole network of fortifications was dug into the ground, a significant part of them are united by passages, trenches, there are underground tunnels, these allow you to survive even heavy shelling, the visible above-ground parts of the dugouts are welded anti-cumulative grilles for protection against anti-tank missiles.
⏺ The entire perimeter is covered with CCTV cameras and motion sensors.
❗️ This is what our soldiers are now hacking, no one has ever performed such a task in the modern world, there is no more fortified place on the entire front.
Iron men serve in the Russian Armed Forces!
✈️ НгП раZVедка (https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z)
Two Majors (“>http://t.me/two_majors)

https://t.me/two_majors/13551

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 14 2023 6:59 utc | 217

▶️ Reinforced concrete fortresses. Avdeevka
Some people do not clearly understand what the Avdeevsky fortified area is, at best imagining footage of urban battles, and this is wrong, we are correcting it.
The enemy built this fortification non-stop for 9 years, all important strategic positions were poured into reinforced concrete, a whole network of fortifications was dug into the ground, a significant part of them are united by passages, trenches, there are underground tunnels, these allow you to survive even heavy shelling, the visible above-ground parts of the dugouts are welded anti-cumulative grilles for protection against anti-tank missiles.
⏺ The entire perimeter is covered with CCTV cameras and motion sensors.
❗️ This is what our soldiers are now hacking, no one has ever performed such a task in the modern world, there is no more fortified place on the entire front.
Iron men serve in the Russian Armed Forces!
✈️ НгП раZVедка (https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z)
Two Majors (“>http://t.me/two_majors)

https://t.me/two_majors/13551

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 14 2023 6:59 utc | 218

Over 1000 comments on the Israel and Palestine threads but barely over 100 on the Ukraine thread.
One might think the war in Ukraine has ended.

Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 14 2023 9:38 utc | 219

Over 1000 comments on the Israel and Palestine threads but barely over 100 on the Ukraine thread.
One might think the war in Ukraine has ended.

Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 14 2023 9:38 utc | 220

British howitzers fall silent in Ukraine because of ‘catastrophic’ shortage of shells
(…) Miron and his comrades were sent to Germany for training on the L119 during the summer. The weapon should make them much more effective in punching through Russian lines.
But because of the shortage of Nato-issue 105mm shells, they have had to fall back on their existing Soviet-era howitzers instead. Among them is an ancient 85mm D-44, a gun used in the final clashes of the Second World War.
“It’s almost like a museum [piece], but we still use it, as at least we have more shells for it,” Miron said.
“This is a critical situation as this is an artillery war – not having enough shells costs our own soldiers’ lives.” (…)
“We will be using bows and arrows next,” joked one of Miron’s comrades.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/13/british-howitzers-ukraine-shells-shortage-soldiers-nato/

Posted by: Apollyon | Oct 14 2023 11:59 utc | 221

British howitzers fall silent in Ukraine because of ‘catastrophic’ shortage of shells
(…) Miron and his comrades were sent to Germany for training on the L119 during the summer. The weapon should make them much more effective in punching through Russian lines.
But because of the shortage of Nato-issue 105mm shells, they have had to fall back on their existing Soviet-era howitzers instead. Among them is an ancient 85mm D-44, a gun used in the final clashes of the Second World War.
“It’s almost like a museum [piece], but we still use it, as at least we have more shells for it,” Miron said.
“This is a critical situation as this is an artillery war – not having enough shells costs our own soldiers’ lives.” (…)
“We will be using bows and arrows next,” joked one of Miron’s comrades.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/13/british-howitzers-ukraine-shells-shortage-soldiers-nato/

Posted by: Apollyon | Oct 14 2023 11:59 utc | 222

Haven’t I read here that Russia has 500, 1500 and 3000 k glide bombs now? If so, have the 3000 been used as yet? Recently I read about the effects of the 1500 – huge craters, total destruction. Maybe it’s time for the 3000 in Arveetka.
As to the abandonment of the Russia threads. The grandstanding posters at MoA can give long ideological orations about Palestine and compete in virtue signalling. The war that matters, the one in which civilization itself is at stake, doesn’t provide a soap box for personal showing off ideological bona fides.
Glory to Russia.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 14 2023 12:44 utc | 223

Haven’t I read here that Russia has 500, 1500 and 3000 k glide bombs now? If so, have the 3000 been used as yet? Recently I read about the effects of the 1500 – huge craters, total destruction. Maybe it’s time for the 3000 in Arveetka.
As to the abandonment of the Russia threads. The grandstanding posters at MoA can give long ideological orations about Palestine and compete in virtue signalling. The war that matters, the one in which civilization itself is at stake, doesn’t provide a soap box for personal showing off ideological bona fides.
Glory to Russia.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 14 2023 12:44 utc | 224

Posted by: Apollyon | Oct 14 2023 11:59 utc | 112
Amazing that they are now writing articles boasting the “magnificent L/M-119”. That is a 105mm gun with 17.5km range. It is pretty comparable to the D-30 howitzer, albeit has 2km longer range.
It has much smaller explosion radius than the 155mm versions and will reduce the potential damage. If that is what is mostly left, it’s bad news for AFU.
Btw, FORTE-10 recon drone was again flying within 100km from Sevastopol. A few days ago a British Typhoon fighter was flying around Lwow. It seems the British are pretty much the only ones who are still hyping up this war.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 14 2023 12:50 utc | 225

Posted by: Apollyon | Oct 14 2023 11:59 utc | 112
Amazing that they are now writing articles boasting the “magnificent L/M-119”. That is a 105mm gun with 17.5km range. It is pretty comparable to the D-30 howitzer, albeit has 2km longer range.
It has much smaller explosion radius than the 155mm versions and will reduce the potential damage. If that is what is mostly left, it’s bad news for AFU.
Btw, FORTE-10 recon drone was again flying within 100km from Sevastopol. A few days ago a British Typhoon fighter was flying around Lwow. It seems the British are pretty much the only ones who are still hyping up this war.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 14 2023 12:50 utc | 226

Perimetr @ 111

Over 1000 comments on the Israel and Palestine threads but barely over 100 on the Ukraine thread. One might think the war in Ukraine has ended.

There’s also an RF MoD blackout on info right now, which limits the speculation on TG informed or otherwise, so not much to talk about. But yes, people do love a good Zionist vs Jihadi bloodbath more, admittedly there much more of a righteous anger giant asshole vs oppressed little guy struggle there but it’s too much wall to wall gore for me to handle. The geo-strategic part is worth following but the terribly skewed gore just overwhelms.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 14 2023 12:51 utc | 227

Perimetr @ 111

Over 1000 comments on the Israel and Palestine threads but barely over 100 on the Ukraine thread. One might think the war in Ukraine has ended.

There’s also an RF MoD blackout on info right now, which limits the speculation on TG informed or otherwise, so not much to talk about. But yes, people do love a good Zionist vs Jihadi bloodbath more, admittedly there much more of a righteous anger giant asshole vs oppressed little guy struggle there but it’s too much wall to wall gore for me to handle. The geo-strategic part is worth following but the terribly skewed gore just overwhelms.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 14 2023 12:51 utc | 228

unimperator @ 114

It seems the British are pretty much the only ones who are still hyping up this war.

Cruisin’ for a bruisin’, we can only hope.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 14 2023 12:54 utc | 229

unimperator @ 114

It seems the British are pretty much the only ones who are still hyping up this war.

Cruisin’ for a bruisin’, we can only hope.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 14 2023 12:54 utc | 230

@unimperator
“It seems the British are pretty much the only ones who are still hyping up this war.”
Some say Ukraine was always the UK’s war first: https://tomluongo.me/2023/10/03/ukraine-was-always-the-uks-war-first/

Posted by: Apollyon | Oct 14 2023 13:05 utc | 231

@unimperator
“It seems the British are pretty much the only ones who are still hyping up this war.”
Some say Ukraine was always the UK’s war first: https://tomluongo.me/2023/10/03/ukraine-was-always-the-uks-war-first/

Posted by: Apollyon | Oct 14 2023 13:05 utc | 232

“Not About Nato” | “Never About NATO” | “Nothing to Do With NATO” | UKRAINE WAR
Matt Orfalea – another classic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf5xEBwBhds
There’s Lies, damned lies and NATO Lies. 🙂

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Oct 14 2023 13:25 utc | 233

“Not About Nato” | “Never About NATO” | “Nothing to Do With NATO” | UKRAINE WAR
Matt Orfalea – another classic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf5xEBwBhds
There’s Lies, damned lies and NATO Lies. 🙂

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Oct 14 2023 13:25 utc | 234

Here’s a descriptional update from 9 hours ago by Armchair Warlord twitter channel:

Update to the unfolding assault on Avdeevka, now in its fourth day: Russian troops have consolidated positions in the countryside around the town’s flanks and are beginning to assault the first set of “outer” strongpoints in the villages of Berdychi, Stepove, and Sjeverne.
Fighting has also been reported in the large industrial complex dominating the north of town, suggesting that reports Russian troops withdrew from the industrial spoil heap across the railroad to its northeast – which originated from Russian war correspondents earlier today – were probably deliberately-spread misinformation to sow confusion prior to an attack. It’s in the Russian interest right now to throw smoke in the information sphere and voenkors will happily help out in this regard.
Russian losses thus far in the operation have been mild – one count I saw had it at three tanks and nine IFVs, mostly damaged and recoverable, which is more than I’ve seen personally. Ukrainian claims otherwise should be dismissed as the usual propaganda. Russian troops have had no problem massing and maneuvering around Avdeevka in large armored columns, suggesting that Ukrainian artillery in the area is very suppressed. Russian bombing and artillery fire has been reported as extremely heavy over the last several days.
Ukrainian reserves have been stripped from the rest of the front to send to Avdeevka, which should put an end to any offensive plans they may have over the winter. On the other hand those reserves will now have to be engaged with and destroyed to finish the job of securing the city.
I don’t expect this to be another Bakhmut. A battle on the timeframe of Mariupol would be more within my expectations. I think the Russians are filling the operational calendar here for the mud season and keeping pressure on the AFU while they wait for better conditions for large-scale maneuver later in the year – and pushing the front line back from Donetsk is an added bonus.
I’ve used Military Summary’s map today because Rybar’s latest map was so bad (and so late) that my disinformation sense went off.

https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1713067564849635368
Pro-Ukro accounts have made some videos, which probably show 10 tanks /AFVs destroyed combined. Far cry from the millions they might claim. Overall, the Ukrainian artillery except for very long range artillery is most likely suppressed. They can occasionally get ATGMs from some hidden positions.
Otherwise, like LightYearsFromHome said, information is tight and probably will be for next several days.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 14 2023 14:48 utc | 235

Here’s a descriptional update from 9 hours ago by Armchair Warlord twitter channel:

Update to the unfolding assault on Avdeevka, now in its fourth day: Russian troops have consolidated positions in the countryside around the town’s flanks and are beginning to assault the first set of “outer” strongpoints in the villages of Berdychi, Stepove, and Sjeverne.
Fighting has also been reported in the large industrial complex dominating the north of town, suggesting that reports Russian troops withdrew from the industrial spoil heap across the railroad to its northeast – which originated from Russian war correspondents earlier today – were probably deliberately-spread misinformation to sow confusion prior to an attack. It’s in the Russian interest right now to throw smoke in the information sphere and voenkors will happily help out in this regard.
Russian losses thus far in the operation have been mild – one count I saw had it at three tanks and nine IFVs, mostly damaged and recoverable, which is more than I’ve seen personally. Ukrainian claims otherwise should be dismissed as the usual propaganda. Russian troops have had no problem massing and maneuvering around Avdeevka in large armored columns, suggesting that Ukrainian artillery in the area is very suppressed. Russian bombing and artillery fire has been reported as extremely heavy over the last several days.
Ukrainian reserves have been stripped from the rest of the front to send to Avdeevka, which should put an end to any offensive plans they may have over the winter. On the other hand those reserves will now have to be engaged with and destroyed to finish the job of securing the city.
I don’t expect this to be another Bakhmut. A battle on the timeframe of Mariupol would be more within my expectations. I think the Russians are filling the operational calendar here for the mud season and keeping pressure on the AFU while they wait for better conditions for large-scale maneuver later in the year – and pushing the front line back from Donetsk is an added bonus.
I’ve used Military Summary’s map today because Rybar’s latest map was so bad (and so late) that my disinformation sense went off.

https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1713067564849635368
Pro-Ukro accounts have made some videos, which probably show 10 tanks /AFVs destroyed combined. Far cry from the millions they might claim. Overall, the Ukrainian artillery except for very long range artillery is most likely suppressed. They can occasionally get ATGMs from some hidden positions.
Otherwise, like LightYearsFromHome said, information is tight and probably will be for next several days.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 14 2023 14:48 utc | 236

@ Perimetr | Oct 14 2023 9:38 utc | 111
I consider it a noise-transfer.

Posted by: John Kennard | Oct 14 2023 17:16 utc | 237

@ Perimetr | Oct 14 2023 9:38 utc | 111
I consider it a noise-transfer.

Posted by: John Kennard | Oct 14 2023 17:16 utc | 238

Unfortunately, it seems that Russian offensive on Avdievka totally failed.
Dima: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALL2256rpxM

Posted by: zorge | Oct 14 2023 20:00 utc | 239

Unfortunately, it seems that Russian offensive on Avdievka totally failed.
Dima: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALL2256rpxM

Posted by: zorge | Oct 14 2023 20:00 utc | 240

I think Russia should just continue with low level pressure and destruction of industry. The soldier’s lives should be preserved.

Posted by: zorge | Oct 14 2023 20:10 utc | 241

I think Russia should just continue with low level pressure and destruction of industry. The soldier’s lives should be preserved.

Posted by: zorge | Oct 14 2023 20:10 utc | 242

Military summary update said RU lost the slag mountain and AFU holds a decent line west of it. The coke factory is in AFU control, obviously.
Also a bridge was destroyed (by a DRG of all things) that was central to supporting the offensive in NW Avdeevka and probably around Krasnogorovka, consequentially the ops near Krasnogorovka are stopped most likely around the railway line. The more time is spent, the more troops and stuff AFU can bring to the far north-west of Avdeevka and may eventually halt it.
Novomikhalovka is being hit, the southern flank would probably be ready to attack it but the northern part is not, due to mine clearance problems or something similar.
AFU continues losing ground around Rabotyne and Novopokrovka. Bombardment in Novodanilovka, north-east of Kopani.
AFU has stripped a lot of stuff from Artemovsk area to reinforce Avdeevka area, most likely other fronts as well.
Also the drum beats get louder about the removal of Zelensky. Odessa region is also doing very poorly and almost on the verge of rioting, due to the losses from port and trade. Zelensky personally arrived there to organize leadership and community to less susceptible for revolts.
Avdeevka seems a setback due to its characteristic of the Maginot line, but ultimately, will it go back to stationary grinding? We’ll see.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 14 2023 20:15 utc | 243

Military summary update said RU lost the slag mountain and AFU holds a decent line west of it. The coke factory is in AFU control, obviously.
Also a bridge was destroyed (by a DRG of all things) that was central to supporting the offensive in NW Avdeevka and probably around Krasnogorovka, consequentially the ops near Krasnogorovka are stopped most likely around the railway line. The more time is spent, the more troops and stuff AFU can bring to the far north-west of Avdeevka and may eventually halt it.
Novomikhalovka is being hit, the southern flank would probably be ready to attack it but the northern part is not, due to mine clearance problems or something similar.
AFU continues losing ground around Rabotyne and Novopokrovka. Bombardment in Novodanilovka, north-east of Kopani.
AFU has stripped a lot of stuff from Artemovsk area to reinforce Avdeevka area, most likely other fronts as well.
Also the drum beats get louder about the removal of Zelensky. Odessa region is also doing very poorly and almost on the verge of rioting, due to the losses from port and trade. Zelensky personally arrived there to organize leadership and community to less susceptible for revolts.
Avdeevka seems a setback due to its characteristic of the Maginot line, but ultimately, will it go back to stationary grinding? We’ll see.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 14 2023 20:15 utc | 244

Avdeevka is under massive MLRS fire, reports SVO Svobodki i Analytica .
Meanwhile, some military correspondents and Russian TG channels continue to receive reports that the last supply route for the Ukrainian Armed Forces group located there has been taken under fire control.

@Masno

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 14 2023 21:16 utc | 245

Avdeevka is under massive MLRS fire, reports SVO Svobodki i Analytica .
Meanwhile, some military correspondents and Russian TG channels continue to receive reports that the last supply route for the Ukrainian Armed Forces group located there has been taken under fire control.

@Masno

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 14 2023 21:16 utc | 246

Some say Ukraine was always the UK’s war first.
Apollyon | Oct 14 2023 13:05 utc | 117
It definitely is and always was. It started right after Truss visited Kiev – Heaven knows what she told Z. to make him launch a large-scale attack on Donbass the following day. Some blackmail, I assume.
Also, BoJo visited in April 22 to prevent a ceasefire – and of course, Nord Stream.
UK has the most at stake, probably even more than Russia. The country is economically + politically dead, post-Brexit – only hope is to force its way into the EU (financial) market.
The ‘real’ war ended in July, when NATO clarified that Ukraine wouldn’t become a member.
Now it’s like the finishing moves of a chess game, when the result is already known.

Posted by: smuks | Oct 14 2023 21:35 utc | 247

Some say Ukraine was always the UK’s war first.
Apollyon | Oct 14 2023 13:05 utc | 117
It definitely is and always was. It started right after Truss visited Kiev – Heaven knows what she told Z. to make him launch a large-scale attack on Donbass the following day. Some blackmail, I assume.
Also, BoJo visited in April 22 to prevent a ceasefire – and of course, Nord Stream.
UK has the most at stake, probably even more than Russia. The country is economically + politically dead, post-Brexit – only hope is to force its way into the EU (financial) market.
The ‘real’ war ended in July, when NATO clarified that Ukraine wouldn’t become a member.
Now it’s like the finishing moves of a chess game, when the result is already known.

Posted by: smuks | Oct 14 2023 21:35 utc | 248

Moss Robeson’s Bandera Blog features WAZ and the NAZI International. Such lovely people!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VHTTMB6aGY

Posted by: bevin | Oct 14 2023 21:39 utc | 249

Moss Robeson’s Bandera Blog features WAZ and the NAZI International. Such lovely people!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VHTTMB6aGY

Posted by: bevin | Oct 14 2023 21:39 utc | 250

There’s another possibility:
USA uses the war as a strategy to disrupt the national construction of the states. Meanwhile the other communities are in conflict and do not build a national structure, the USA can sub exist.
Destroy the world to justify the lack of the own fulfillment.
Bread for today, hunger for morrow

Posted by: Zye | Oct 14 2023 21:54 utc | 251

There’s another possibility:
USA uses the war as a strategy to disrupt the national construction of the states. Meanwhile the other communities are in conflict and do not build a national structure, the USA can sub exist.
Destroy the world to justify the lack of the own fulfillment.
Bread for today, hunger for morrow

Posted by: Zye | Oct 14 2023 21:54 utc | 252

UK has the most at stake, probably even more than Russia. The country is economically + politically dead, post-Brexit – only hope is to force its way into the EU (financial) market.
Posted by: smuks | Oct 14 2023 21:35 utc | 125
It doesn’t stop the appetite of the illegal immigrants for UK. They still prefer it over the EU – launching themselves from France’s north coast or even flying into Dublin Airport and then getting smuggled to England.
So for an “economically dead” country, the illegals and gangs are still making a huge amount of money selling cocaine and other drugs.

Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 14 2023 22:06 utc | 253

UK has the most at stake, probably even more than Russia. The country is economically + politically dead, post-Brexit – only hope is to force its way into the EU (financial) market.
Posted by: smuks | Oct 14 2023 21:35 utc | 125
It doesn’t stop the appetite of the illegal immigrants for UK. They still prefer it over the EU – launching themselves from France’s north coast or even flying into Dublin Airport and then getting smuggled to England.
So for an “economically dead” country, the illegals and gangs are still making a huge amount of money selling cocaine and other drugs.

Posted by: MiniMO | Oct 14 2023 22:06 utc | 254

Thank you, Southfront, for info that is getting scarce, and for your distillation that improves it. Reminds me of Santallana on being concise and being right.

Posted by: knkl | Oct 14 2023 23:25 utc | 255

Thank you, Southfront, for info that is getting scarce, and for your distillation that improves it. Reminds me of Santallana on being concise and being right.

Posted by: knkl | Oct 14 2023 23:25 utc | 256

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 14 2023 20:15 utc | 123
Dima’s, like many amateur commentators, analysis is susceptible to monetised hyperbole. No army launches an offensive relying on one MSR, unless it has to. If that MSR crosses a bridge, engineering units are ready to repair/replace any structure damaged or destroyed, within hours, with AD and bridge protection patrols covering the structure. This is doubly true of the Russian Army, who I have personally witnessed bridge a large river in less than 24 hours, with normal traffic flow resuming in less than 48 hours.
The key to understanding this attack is that Ukraine are having to rob Peter to pay Paul, and shuttle reserves from Robotyne, and other critical areas, which might then become the main attack axes. Russia is like a boxer now, jabbing, feinting and side-stepping, waiting for an opening or ready with a prepared series of attack combos. Having NATO ISR support means the boxer’s opponent’s coach is in the ring shouting advice, but he cannot help the increasingly fatigued fighter, just warn him. I’d probably think the slag mountain vector was either a feint, and in the future we’ll find out critical terrain was taken to cut off the MSR to the city; or one of a wave of echeloned attacks designed to ripple down the line of contact, depleting reserves, until an opening is made/found. Dima has a history of premature-discombobulation and this is probably my diagnosis of his recent analysis.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 0:00 utc | 257

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 14 2023 20:15 utc | 123
Dima’s, like many amateur commentators, analysis is susceptible to monetised hyperbole. No army launches an offensive relying on one MSR, unless it has to. If that MSR crosses a bridge, engineering units are ready to repair/replace any structure damaged or destroyed, within hours, with AD and bridge protection patrols covering the structure. This is doubly true of the Russian Army, who I have personally witnessed bridge a large river in less than 24 hours, with normal traffic flow resuming in less than 48 hours.
The key to understanding this attack is that Ukraine are having to rob Peter to pay Paul, and shuttle reserves from Robotyne, and other critical areas, which might then become the main attack axes. Russia is like a boxer now, jabbing, feinting and side-stepping, waiting for an opening or ready with a prepared series of attack combos. Having NATO ISR support means the boxer’s opponent’s coach is in the ring shouting advice, but he cannot help the increasingly fatigued fighter, just warn him. I’d probably think the slag mountain vector was either a feint, and in the future we’ll find out critical terrain was taken to cut off the MSR to the city; or one of a wave of echeloned attacks designed to ripple down the line of contact, depleting reserves, until an opening is made/found. Dima has a history of premature-discombobulation and this is probably my diagnosis of his recent analysis.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 0:00 utc | 258

smuks | Oct 14 2023 21:35 utc | 125
*** The country [UK] is economically + politically dead, post-Brexit – only hope is to force its way into the EU (financial) market.***
It was pretty much dead prior to the so-called “Brexit” — which was *not* the departure from Brussels dictatorship as wanted by the public.
The campaign to exit got totally hijacked by the political establishment. Which jettisoned whatever better bits there were of EU membership but effectively retained the worst.
Doubt the City of London is too bothered about the EU “financial market” … it being a criminal hub that operates globally, and which will no doubt predate upon the carcasses of declining EU countries. Von der Leyen and Barosso are not its enemies, they are its opportunity providers.
But the City of London most certainly is not the zombified country still called Britain, which was devoured and shat out by that bastion of malevolence quite some time ago.
A noticeably increasing percentage of the British public are, finally, realising the plight they’re now in thanks to the political establishment and its absolutely rotten Party labels. But too late, and still not enough to bring the system down (to be replaced with what?), and those who rule are becoming ever more overtly authoritarian.
Things may end up really nasty.

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 15 2023 0:21 utc | 259

smuks | Oct 14 2023 21:35 utc | 125
*** The country [UK] is economically + politically dead, post-Brexit – only hope is to force its way into the EU (financial) market.***
It was pretty much dead prior to the so-called “Brexit” — which was *not* the departure from Brussels dictatorship as wanted by the public.
The campaign to exit got totally hijacked by the political establishment. Which jettisoned whatever better bits there were of EU membership but effectively retained the worst.
Doubt the City of London is too bothered about the EU “financial market” … it being a criminal hub that operates globally, and which will no doubt predate upon the carcasses of declining EU countries. Von der Leyen and Barosso are not its enemies, they are its opportunity providers.
But the City of London most certainly is not the zombified country still called Britain, which was devoured and shat out by that bastion of malevolence quite some time ago.
A noticeably increasing percentage of the British public are, finally, realising the plight they’re now in thanks to the political establishment and its absolutely rotten Party labels. But too late, and still not enough to bring the system down (to be replaced with what?), and those who rule are becoming ever more overtly authoritarian.
Things may end up really nasty.

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 15 2023 0:21 utc | 260

Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 0:00 utc | 130
Thanks. Enlightening and comprehensive, as always.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 15 2023 1:06 utc | 261

Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 0:00 utc | 130
Thanks. Enlightening and comprehensive, as always.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 15 2023 1:06 utc | 262

@ Cynic | Oct 15 2023 0:21 utc | 131
The Wall Street-City of London Axis is the heart of the American Empire.

Posted by: John Kennard | Oct 15 2023 2:14 utc | 263

@ Cynic | Oct 15 2023 0:21 utc | 131
The Wall Street-City of London Axis is the heart of the American Empire.

Posted by: John Kennard | Oct 15 2023 2:14 utc | 264

Some videos for today.
Russian drone makes precision strike on enemy position near Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/c619447a5af44d14d21494e301079014/
Russian forces continue advancing near Kupyansk:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/merged-video_322331111:8
Russian Grad launcher pounds enemy position in Kherson oblast:
https://rutube.ru/video/ad02d8bb108620c6521dfffd9c8b8dbc/
Russian artillery pounds enemy fortified position:
https://rutube.ru/video/058b8c2db42fce6957b2188fb3b1182f/
Russian Su-25s conduct airstrikes near Donetsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/e872ebfbb874224e3934cfd50fdb0632/

Posted by: Nate | Oct 15 2023 2:22 utc | 265

Some videos for today.
Russian drone makes precision strike on enemy position near Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/c619447a5af44d14d21494e301079014/
Russian forces continue advancing near Kupyansk:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/merged-video_322331111:8
Russian Grad launcher pounds enemy position in Kherson oblast:
https://rutube.ru/video/ad02d8bb108620c6521dfffd9c8b8dbc/
Russian artillery pounds enemy fortified position:
https://rutube.ru/video/058b8c2db42fce6957b2188fb3b1182f/
Russian Su-25s conduct airstrikes near Donetsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/e872ebfbb874224e3934cfd50fdb0632/

Posted by: Nate | Oct 15 2023 2:22 utc | 266

MiniMO | Oct 14 2023 22:06 utc | 128
Congratulations, you’ve completely swallowed the elites’ propaganda!
Billionaires are getting richer by the hour, while the average working person barely scrapes by. But hey, don’t think about inequality or record profits, just blame your problems on some poor devils risking their lives in tiny boats!
Cynic | Oct 15 2023 0:21 utc | 131
The entire Brexit campaign was about as ‘establishment’ as it gets. Cooked up by Murdoch press and City of London a.k.a. Big Money. It was almost funny how old friends Cameron & Johnson played both sides, so no matter the result, they’d come out on top.
You’re right of course that the City operates globally. Only trouble is, from where to where? Its main attraction has been access to the EU market, the largest/ second largest economy in the world, while being relatively unregulated. If it loses that access, there’s not much sense for finance firms to set up shop in tiny UK, outside the gates, and far from other major markets.

Posted by: smuks | Oct 15 2023 2:34 utc | 267

MiniMO | Oct 14 2023 22:06 utc | 128
Congratulations, you’ve completely swallowed the elites’ propaganda!
Billionaires are getting richer by the hour, while the average working person barely scrapes by. But hey, don’t think about inequality or record profits, just blame your problems on some poor devils risking their lives in tiny boats!
Cynic | Oct 15 2023 0:21 utc | 131
The entire Brexit campaign was about as ‘establishment’ as it gets. Cooked up by Murdoch press and City of London a.k.a. Big Money. It was almost funny how old friends Cameron & Johnson played both sides, so no matter the result, they’d come out on top.
You’re right of course that the City operates globally. Only trouble is, from where to where? Its main attraction has been access to the EU market, the largest/ second largest economy in the world, while being relatively unregulated. If it loses that access, there’s not much sense for finance firms to set up shop in tiny UK, outside the gates, and far from other major markets.

Posted by: smuks | Oct 15 2023 2:34 utc | 268

A small reflection now that things are calm here.
In less than a week IDF killed more than 2.000 Palestinian civilians.
With almost 20 months in there weren’t 10.000 civilians killed by Russian attacks in Ukraine (and plenty of bombing and shelling involved).
Almost 20X less on a weekly basis… only barbarians could forget to slaughter civilians 😂

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 15 2023 8:46 utc | 269

A small reflection now that things are calm here.
In less than a week IDF killed more than 2.000 Palestinian civilians.
With almost 20 months in there weren’t 10.000 civilians killed by Russian attacks in Ukraine (and plenty of bombing and shelling involved).
Almost 20X less on a weekly basis… only barbarians could forget to slaughter civilians 😂

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 15 2023 8:46 utc | 270

A “hot” conflict between the West and Russia, if it occurs, will not be limited to the framework of a special military operation, “it will be a completely different war,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with the programme “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin” on the Rossiya-1 TV channel.
So at the request of host Pavel Zarubin, he commented on the recommendation of a US Congressional commission to prepare for a simultaneous war with both Russia and China, including taking into account the option of a nuclear confrontation.
“We proceed from the fact that we want peace, and if they want to go to war with Russia, it’s a completely different war, it’s not a special military operation,” Putin emphasised.
Schreibt TASS
Da hat er wohl Recht.

Posted by: Oberbayer | Oct 15 2023 9:38 utc | 271

A “hot” conflict between the West and Russia, if it occurs, will not be limited to the framework of a special military operation, “it will be a completely different war,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with the programme “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin” on the Rossiya-1 TV channel.
So at the request of host Pavel Zarubin, he commented on the recommendation of a US Congressional commission to prepare for a simultaneous war with both Russia and China, including taking into account the option of a nuclear confrontation.
“We proceed from the fact that we want peace, and if they want to go to war with Russia, it’s a completely different war, it’s not a special military operation,” Putin emphasised.
Schreibt TASS
Da hat er wohl Recht.

Posted by: Oberbayer | Oct 15 2023 9:38 utc | 272

Military summary report:
-RU positioned around the railway line in Krasnagorovka and has forced AFU to leave eastern part of Stepove. Regrouping assumed in this area
-Ops to secure northern flank continue toward Novokalynove, AFU placed a lot of troops NE/N/NW of Krasnogorovka so they must be pushed further to secure any move west of the rail line
-Most likely the east-west roads are under partial but not full fire control, in this sense the situation resembles Bakhmut
-RU took the western most trench complex back, west of Verbove
-AFU concentrated a lot of troops NE of Kopani, most likely they will try to attack it next
-In the Vremvka area, RU has reached nearly Rivnopil, north-west of Urozhaine

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 15 2023 9:48 utc | 273

Military summary report:
-RU positioned around the railway line in Krasnagorovka and has forced AFU to leave eastern part of Stepove. Regrouping assumed in this area
-Ops to secure northern flank continue toward Novokalynove, AFU placed a lot of troops NE/N/NW of Krasnogorovka so they must be pushed further to secure any move west of the rail line
-Most likely the east-west roads are under partial but not full fire control, in this sense the situation resembles Bakhmut
-RU took the western most trench complex back, west of Verbove
-AFU concentrated a lot of troops NE of Kopani, most likely they will try to attack it next
-In the Vremvka area, RU has reached nearly Rivnopil, north-west of Urozhaine

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 15 2023 9:48 utc | 274

The fog of war feels like it has smothered any plausible interpretations of the reality on the ground.
Currently I’m finding it difficult to reconcile the diametrically opposed narratives of events around Avdeevka and the Russian offensive in general – you read the Ukraine side and it’s a catastrophe while the Russian side…
Maybe it’s just information overload from other events or I’m just getting bad at interpreting things or both.

Posted by: FakeBelieve | Oct 15 2023 11:53 utc | 275

The fog of war feels like it has smothered any plausible interpretations of the reality on the ground.
Currently I’m finding it difficult to reconcile the diametrically opposed narratives of events around Avdeevka and the Russian offensive in general – you read the Ukraine side and it’s a catastrophe while the Russian side…
Maybe it’s just information overload from other events or I’m just getting bad at interpreting things or both.

Posted by: FakeBelieve | Oct 15 2023 11:53 utc | 276

Posted by: FakeBelieve | Oct 15 2023 11:53 utc | 139
If you read a distillation of German combat reports during Bagration, you’d probably conclude the Soviets were struggling at the start.
Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 15 2023 1:06 utc | 132
Thanks for the compliment, I normally just apply a modern variant of Soviet Cold-War doctrine and tactics template, especially the forward units and formations they used (CRP, FSE, AG) when expecting encounter battles or an advance to contact. The structure of the BTG is really a standardisation of the ad-hoc Advance Guard for a tank regiment or its motor rifle counterpart, complete with over representation of artillery and AD assets.
Seems as though Dima reads MoA! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hDspgHzLC8. I tend to leave a two day gap before looking at the YouTube G-2’s assessments, as they tend to suffer somewhat from rushed analysis, where hyperbole replaces measured assessments, and mundane normality of conflict tempo is sensationalised (the micro ebb and flow of the line of contact), the inevitable by-product of monetisation pressures.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 15:40 utc | 277

Posted by: FakeBelieve | Oct 15 2023 11:53 utc | 139
If you read a distillation of German combat reports during Bagration, you’d probably conclude the Soviets were struggling at the start.
Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Oct 15 2023 1:06 utc | 132
Thanks for the compliment, I normally just apply a modern variant of Soviet Cold-War doctrine and tactics template, especially the forward units and formations they used (CRP, FSE, AG) when expecting encounter battles or an advance to contact. The structure of the BTG is really a standardisation of the ad-hoc Advance Guard for a tank regiment or its motor rifle counterpart, complete with over representation of artillery and AD assets.
Seems as though Dima reads MoA! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hDspgHzLC8. I tend to leave a two day gap before looking at the YouTube G-2’s assessments, as they tend to suffer somewhat from rushed analysis, where hyperbole replaces measured assessments, and mundane normality of conflict tempo is sensationalised (the micro ebb and flow of the line of contact), the inevitable by-product of monetisation pressures.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 15 2023 15:40 utc | 278