Archived #51 AFP piece on Robotyne, in case the original disappears:
https://archive.ph/9153q

Posted by: neutrino | Oct 12 2023 19:27 utc | 103

Ed | Oct 12 2023 16:31 utc | 46
I think Colin was using a system that gave multiple id’s. (He mentioned something about this in a post, which I only skimmed over very quickly). I have no idea how this could be done, but I presume that b thought that he was cheating as there was no unique identifiable source for his posts.

Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 12 2023 19:28 utc | 105

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 12 2023 15:25 utc | 36
Funny thing is, the only place the president cokehead could find relatively safe haven when it all comes crashing down is Russia.

Posted by: Mike R | Oct 12 2023 20:15 utc | 107

“We will forever stand with Ukraine.”
Define we. Define forever. Define stand with. Define Ukraine. The upcoming election could evetually demonstrate how elastic all that terminology is.
Politicians retire, or lose power, and get replaced. Military aid can morph into merely relief aid, and that through groups that are run by grifters. Once Russia firmly occupies more chunks of Ukraine, and their population votes in approval of that, the Western political and media classes will put those regions down the memory hole, like they did with Crimea, after caring a lot, then not at all, until the SMO ramped up.Then they cared again.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 12 2023 20:22 utc | 109

Scanning TG, besides the 2000 Israeli soldiers, varied mercenary forces are supposedly being withdrawn from Ukraine for the Middle East, supposedly, TG is social media after all. I can’t imagine what difference these numbers could make given the resources of Israel, or why they are needed in Gaza any more than in Ukraine given the current Russian push.
Maybe it’s like Wagner in Russia, Israel simply wants seasoned troops to lead and instruct their green troops for the Gaza assault, or maybe the USA and Israel have something bigger planned or they see something bigger coming at them?
Offhand I’d guess they need a money driven amoral force with zero scrupulous to genocide Gaza house by house.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 12 2023 20:24 utc | 111

Latest from Weeb and Dima: Russians are launching offensives all along the line of contact. Weeb says Russians are attacking with hundreds of tanks, Dima says thousands, expected as he is prone to hyperbole. Russians are taking some heavy losses of armor in places. Russia must believe it has the power advantage to keep the Ukies pinned down along the line of contact, preventing reinforcement.

Posted by: Mike R | Oct 12 2023 20:57 utc | 113

Weeb report tried to illustrate what sort of nut to crack Avdeevka is. It is no doubt the most fortified place. There are multiple layers of trenches everywhere in the south. Other report also said they have concrete tunnels running all across housing all the facilities needed.
Most AFU troops are concentrated around the coke factory, i.e. northern part of Avdeevka, probably.
Obviously even Nato isn’t that stupid and they extended these sort of structures west to the fields and north of Avdeevka.
On the other hand they have managed to suppress most of AFU artillery, and the mines might disable vehicles, but in many occasion the crew seems to have been fine. The mines might be smaller (because remotely deployed) or RU might have found other methods of reducing mine damage.
Generally speaking there’s little new updates from Stepove or Berdychi, beyond the rail line. We certainly know RU crossed the rail line but there’s little other updates.
In the southern part, they expand control from Pisky and Vodiane toward Pervomaiske and managed to find and hit some long range artillery there. Eventually, it should secure the area around Severne from AFU counter fire.
AFU was seen bringing more stuff through the rail station of Ocheretyne , but had to move their staging area further west (8km) to Prohres as RU started hitting Ocheretyne rail.
Just an opinion, but it will take long for sure. Ain’t about blitzkriegs, it’s about securing the places they managed to take, which potentially are already close to sufficient to cut off Avdeevka, if you dig in them and moved the artillery and drones closer to deal with enemy artillery and support the new advance positions.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 12 2023 21:19 utc | 115

Oh FFS!! As an American… quit embarrassing us all… and admit failure!
I bring you: FrankenSam:
https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2023-10-12/pentagons-frankensam-program-cobbles-together-air-defense-weapons-for-ukraine
“BRUSSELS (AP) — The Pentagon calls it FrankenSAM — a project that cobbles together air defense weapons for Ukraine from an array of parts from around the world.
But now, as congressional gridlock delays funding for the war in Ukraine, the Frankenstein-like program for surface-to-air missiles has become more of a life saver and a reliable way to get working weapons to the battlefield now. The rapid delivery of the systems comes as Ukraine tries to ward off Russian airstrikes and make as many gains as possible before troops are slowed down by weather”

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 12 2023 21:44 utc | 117

Re: Avdeevka
Affords the Russians a lot of room to maneuver if the Ukrainians have to turtle up in fortress mode. A great way to force the Ukrainians into a defensive posture, sacrificing any initiative.
If a force of any size has been holed up in, mortared, and bombed in Avdeevka, how exactly are they going to be able to “break out” in 2 months and go on offense?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 12 2023 21:50 utc | 119

Posted by: catdog | Oct 12 2023 14:06 utc | 27
Well, war is a democracy, the enemy also gets to votes. Clearly AFU is not prepared to give it up easily and will throw everything to break a siege, including from other fronts.
Reminiscent of the situation after Stalingrad was encircled after operation Uranus.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 12 2023 14:08 utc | 29
———————————————————–
Isn’t Andiivka one of the most fortified places in Ukraine from which it cab securely lob ordnance at Donetsk?
It is going to take a while to just dismatle the well defended perphery alone. If/when the Ukies perceive themselves surrounded and cutoff the fighting might get more fierce.
Starve them out like Stalingrad which I guess was not nearly as well defended?

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 12 2023 21:50 utc | 121

well there is one thing I am really mad about
I mean every russian is
the israelis are destroying washing machine en masse
no rockets for russia anymore I guess and Bosch gets bancrupted :<

Posted by: Macpott | Oct 12 2023 21:57 utc | 123

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 12 2023 21:50 utc | 60
Obviously the Russians most likely can’t take Avdeevka in a head on slugfest. The northern part is key, expanding the control there, and pushing it even further west and north, while at the same time keeping the remaining AFU inside Avdeevka. Most likely by suppressing them through bombing.
At the same time they would need to fend off the new AFU attacks coming from the west and north.
It seems the most preferable solution is to simply keep expanding west and north the perimeter away from Avdeevka and consolidate those positions. The forces need to be kept south, east and south-west of Avdeevka, for the sole purpose of defending from AFU outbreak attempts should be fairly minimal once the perimeter north and west is secure.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 12 2023 21:57 utc | 125

Latest from Weeb and Dima: Russians are launching offensives all along the line of contact. Weeb says Russians are attacking with hundreds of tanks, Dima says thousands, expected as he is prone to hyperbole. Russians are taking some heavy losses of armor in places. Russia must believe it has the power advantage to keep the Ukies pinned down along the line of contact, preventing reinforcement.
Posted by: Mike R | Oct 12 2023 20:57 utc | 57
Does anybody have some insight into this? Is it a change in Russian strategy to accept higher losses, or was this always believed to be inevitable?
I don’t have the military background to understand what is going on, but if this is a change in strategy, why would Russia do so when the grinding approach seemed so successful and Ukraine is going to be increasingly short of ammunition and people going forward anyway?
TIA for any thoughts!

Posted by: Monte Cristo | Oct 12 2023 22:00 utc | 127

Posted by: Monte Cristo | Oct 12 2023 22:00 utc | 64
Not sure, they might be a large bunch of smaller local attacks to pin the AFU forces in place and prevent them from moving. They might see cracks forming here, there and everywhere, with insufficient replacements here, there and everywhere.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 12 2023 22:05 utc | 129

Avdiivka. The 3 new brigades. It all remains to be seen.
It’s just the beginning as I see it. Khearson & securing all of Zaporozhye on deck. Just my opinion.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 12 2023 22:06 utc | 131

Next WH announcement: Biden and Dems blame the Republicans for defunding the war and losing Ukraine.

Posted by: bill wolfe | Oct 12 2023 22:19 utc | 133

“the grinding approach seemed so successful”
Posted by: Monte Cristo | Oct 12 2023 22:00 utc | 64
The grinding approach wasn’t stopping the destruction of the Donbass and murder of its civilians, nor the attacks on Russia itself and killing of civilians across the border.
The grinding approach wasn’t budging the Ukrainian strongholds in the Donbass and elsewhere, it wasn’t stopping them bringing NATO weapons and mercenaries there either.
The grinding approach wasn’t getting the Russian forces more territory.

Posted by: MiniMo | Oct 12 2023 22:23 utc | 135

@65 and 68–thank you for the replies.
@68: Is your reading that Russia basically lost patience and has decided to bite the bullet and accept more casualties going forward?
Not trying to pin you down–just trying to understand the situation.

Posted by: Monte Cristo | Oct 12 2023 22:45 utc | 137

The slag heap is only 1 km from the coke plant and ~30m (100ft) higher in elevation. It basically overlooks the plant and is the waste pile from the plant. Main access road is on the western side, but it looks like there is a short and steep road on on the north side. This is really the key strategic height for the whole area. The coke plant has some tall chimneys and cooling towers that could be used for cameras and communications – if they are still standing – but no other structures near the height of the slag hill. Capturing and holding the slag hill likely seals the fate of the whole area.
The coke plant was controlled briefly by the DPR in 2014 but was retaken by Ukraine before the end of major hostilities. It was still operating until 2022, but at reduced capacity, and had to be operated from an underground facility on site because of occasional shelling from the DPR.
The most recent GoogleEarth photography available seems to be dated 5/2022 and clearly shows the destruction visited upon Azovstal. Generally it defaults to 10/2021 photography. Likely no updates will be publicly available until the conflict ends.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 12 2023 22:46 utc | 139

I’ve been thinking more and more about Kirby’s “end of the rope” comment, along with the large number of coordinated comments seemingly out of nowhere once again mentioning a two-state solution in Israel.
I wonder if the US has an agreement with Russia that it will acknowledge its loss in Ukraine and jsut get out in exchange for Russia’s cooperation to de-escalate the situation in the Middle East. If so, the “two state” solution is now a bargaining chip to the Muslim world (Arabs + Iran + Turkey) and probably represents a huge amount of vulnerability on the part of Israel. The problem is that the West has repeatedly shown that it is not agreement capable, so I don’t know how any such agreement would be workable.
Total speculation, of course, but I can’t imagine that the US would just toss a card like that onto the table without trying to get some concession for it (even though the writing has been on the wall for a long time now). But it will be interesting to see what happens on the Uke front, especially with respect to Poland and the Baltics. Also what happens with Iran, for that matter.
I still can’t understand how nobody in the State or DoD has gotten fired over Ukraine yet, by the way–how much more incompetence do you need to demonstrate to lose your job?

Posted by: Monte Cristo | Oct 12 2023 22:57 utc | 141

@Monte Cristo | Oct 12 2023 22:45 utc | 69
I would guess that they are testing Ukrainian defenses and trying to deplete remaining available reserves of manpower, weapons, and armor. As for Adeevka – perhaps they wish to take it before winter sets in and shut down the ability of Ukrainian forces to shell and disrupt services in Donetsk city. This is most problematic during winter heating season. I believe they have the city water supply sorted out now, but previously the Ukrainians made a point of shelling and damaging infrastructure as well as making life miserable for the residents with random shelling in civilian areas. As to whether they push the front a little or a lot – that probably depends on the quality of resistance.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 12 2023 22:58 utc | 143

RE: Monte Cristo | Oct 12 2023 22:57 utc | 71
At this point they’ll toss an entire deck of cards in the table if they think it would get them anywhere.
No evidence of any “deals” at all. Just more spitballing and disruptions to slow down inevitable collapse.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 12 2023 23:04 utc | 145

@ 73 You could very well be right.
Either way, Poland and other “NATO” states must really be reconsidering the true vlaue of all those US security guarantees right now.

Posted by: Monte Cristo | Oct 12 2023 23:12 utc | 147

Posted by: Monte Cristo | Oct 12 2023 22:45 utc | 69
More like a series of heavy armoured probes, finding where the weak points are and aggressively advancing when they do. The Russians were always going to exploit the failure of any Ukrainian offensive by changing tempo and beginning to deploy the carefully husbanded troops, that some posters were urging months ago should have been used precipitously, for large scale attacks.
As for casualties, they seem average for such an operational deployment and integral to the use of such recce in force tactics. Most of the ‘dead’ tanks shown seem to be mobility kills from mines and artillery and easily recoverable, with few showing signs of catastrophic kills. Normally the Ukrainians drone bomb these vehicles, by dropping munitions onto the abandoned vehicles, but this time they seem to have not had the opportunity.
What the Russians do when they identified the areas of weakness is only known to them, but might revolve around several options.
1. Continue probing all along the front and exploiting local gains with a view to improving the position of the army for the Autumn/Winter
2. Continue probing along identified axes of weakness, identify a number, reinforce and launch a conventional style armoured assault, complete with feints and fixing attacks. Units would push into the rear areas, disrupting support elements and attempting to unhinge defences by envelopment, to force the line of contact back to the next Ukrainian MLR.
3. Revert back to attritional warfare after making some spasmodic gains.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 12 2023 23:15 utc | 149

Monte Cristo @ 71

I still can’t understand how nobody in the State or DoD has gotten fired over Ukraine yet, by the way–how much more incompetence do you need to demonstrate to lose your job?

Time to admit you are living in a dictatorship.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 12 2023 23:30 utc | 151

@75 Thank you–very helpful explanation!

Posted by: Monte Cristo | Oct 12 2023 23:54 utc | 153

RE: Monte Cristo | Oct 12 2023 23:12 utc | 74
Agreed, especially when those “security guarantees” don’t involve a monetary printing press to end a conflict and have to actually be backed up with working military equipment & manpower. But sure, the EU can keep paying the 2-4% GDP in each country for “protection money”.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 13 2023 1:32 utc | 155

Some videos for today.
Russian Lancet destroyed a Kiev regime Su-25 at the Dolgintsevo airfield near Krivoy Rog:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/DroneVsJet_IGwide:9
Russian forces pounding the enemy near Avdeevka, north of Donetsk:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/VID_20231013_000959_766:3
Russian forces seized Western-supplied weapons from captured enemy position on the Zaporozhye front:
https://rutube.ru/video/a117523decee26a744884cdfa92a0708/
Russian forces blow up enemy ammunition store near Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/5a54dd0cbf62d5d897ab17cbc6dd5ee7/
Russian Msta-S self-propelled howitzer opens fire near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/4cedb0c30afc8089180f0318ed85a861/
Russian artillery destroyed another NATO-supplied FH-70 howitzer:
https://rutube.ru/video/a9d970c2edada01180b0ecc3cf6caac1/
Russian Ka-52 strike destroys another enemy armored vehicle:
https://rutube.ru/video/154bb302eef9a7775d8c4ec917ec8d6e/
A Russian strike destroyed a Kiev regime fuel train in Avdeevka, during Russian forces ongoing offensive operations in the area:
https://odysee.com/@YuBratNavas:f/merged-video_298888888:a

Posted by: Nate | Oct 13 2023 1:32 utc | 157

All these problems around Avdievka indicate thar Ukro army is still very strong.
For Russia it would be better to destroy Ukrainian prpduction capacities end cripple their export likecthey did by destroying harbours. Apparently, the armies cannot be crushed so fast.
Posted by: zorge | Oct 12 2023 16:06 utc | 42
LOL! “Problems?” “Ukrainian production facilities?” “Export?” You are so funny!

Posted by: Activist Potato | Oct 13 2023 3:27 utc | 159

Latest from Weeb and Dima: . Russians are taking some heavy losses of armor in places.
Posted by: Mike R | Oct 12 2023 20:57 utc | 57
No, they are taking some losses – heavy only relative to the fact that they have been taking negligible losses to this point. Their targets in this offensive are very important. Success will result in those losses being more than made up by the advantages they accrue. Commanding the road in and out of Avdieivka (or however one wants to spell it) invites the Ukies to repeat the same mistakes they made in Bahkmut and, regardless, will set the table for victory, whether due to eventual encirclement or allowing troops to enter the cauldron to be destroyed. Trust the Russian MOD.

Posted by: Activist Potato | Oct 13 2023 3:44 utc | 161

There’s a third Crooke, about 25 minutes, “Netanyahu’s Dangerous Overreaction w/Alastair Crooke fmr Brit ambassador”, hosted by Judge Napolitano. Thanks to commentator Lubica at my substack!

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 13 2023 4:13 utc | 163

‘Economists for Ukraine (EfU)’ produced an lopen letter to Jeffrey Sachs, aimed at shutting up the professor. One of the signatories was London School of Economics professor, Belgian Paul De Grauwe, whom I briefly met after his lecture at the Seniorenuniversiteit Hasselt (Belgium). We disagreed. A Putin-hater, I suggested him, as an important opinion leader in our country, to start communicating that he was wrong about Putin’s intentions and is now more in line with the mainstream opinion. He looked as if he heard thunder in Cologne!
I produced an article on the subject: https://geopolitiekincontext.wordpress.com/2023/10/13/paul-de-grauwe-topeconoom-en-tegelijk-geopolitieke-havik/
As always, please translate the text by using the ‘Google translate’ tool in the top-right corner. One can post a reaction underneath.

Posted by: Paul-Robert | Oct 13 2023 5:08 utc | 165

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Military Expert Boris Rozhin on the SMO #Highlights in the Territory of the Former Ukraine by 22:45 Moscow Time for 12 October 2023⚡️
🔹1. #Pjatikhatki:
▪️ Ours have improved their position in the last few days.
🔹2 #Rabotino:
▪️ The enemy admitted that they did not have complete control.
▪️ Attacks in the area of #Verbovoye were repulsed. The enemy cannot break through between #Rabotino and #Verbovoye.
🔹3. #Vremevka Ledge:
▪️ The situation is without global changes. The enemy’s offensive practically came to nothing.
▪️ Our troops are preparing the area of #Urozhaynoye for further attacks.
🔹4. #Avdeyevka:
▪️ Our troops continue to attack.
▪️ There are certain successes in the rubbish dump area and in the direction of #Berdychi, as well as south of #Avdeyevka, but it is too early to talk about translating their operational successes, especially into the encirclement of #Avdeyevka.
📌 The work is ongoing.
🔹5. #Artemovsk:
▪️ Fierce fighting continues in the Orekhovo-Vasilyevka area, as well as in the area of the #Kleshcheyevka – #Andreyevka – #Kurdyumovka line, there are no fundamental changes. Heavy artillery fire from both sides makes it difficult to conduct active offensive operations, combined with heavy losses.
🔹6. #Svatovo – #Kupyansk:
▪️ The offensive of our troops continues. Several supports have been taken to the west of #Svatovo and another 2-3 pieces in the area of #Sinkovka and #Petropavlovka.
📌 It’s too early to talk about a breakthrough of the front.

https://t.me/sitreports/16320

Posted by: Down South | Oct 13 2023 6:58 utc | 167

Podolyak is following in the footsteps of Arestovich and is trying to “sell” the masses a new hope that victory is about to happen, we must be patient. Only this time the meaning is not about time, but about military developments.
“If we want to have parity, then we need not only drone production, but rocket production. And we already have proven experimental samples with a range of 750–1000 kilometers,” said adviser to the head of the OP Podolyak.
We’ll disappoint everyone.
There is no production of UAVs in Ukraine – there is an assembly of Chinese analogues. There are also Western prototypes.
The maritime drone is a British development that was tested by Ukraine and sold to the masses as a Kyiv development.
There is also no rocket production for rockets – fairy tales for “outsiders”.
Such stuffing is designed for the minds of the naive man in the street. Just like the stories in February 2022 that the war will end in 2-3 weeks. Experts read between the lines, understanding that Bankovaya wants to sell the people at least some hope.
Ah, with rockets everything is simple. They want to get Western ones, but put their logo on them.
The only question is who will dare to give such toys against the background of forecasts of a big war in the Middle East. Another question about quantity. 20-30 missiles will not change anything, but they will increase the temperature in the war and a response will come to the “heads of the Ukrainians.” The main thing is that there is no carpet bombing in the Gaza Strip…

https://t.me/legitimniy/16467

Posted by: Down South | Oct 13 2023 7:04 utc | 169

🔥 Fortress Avdeevka – military aspect
In military terms, the offensive of Russian troops on the super-fortified Avdeevka demonstrates a change in the tactics of offensive operations.
The Russians spent a long time saving up shells and preparing, they really saved money. Early in the morning of October 10, it flew simultaneously from all guns + MLRS, glide bombs and helicopters. They write from the field that the amount poured into the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces exceeds SOVIET standards, the so-called “Barrage of Fire.” Obviously, reconnaissance had been carried out for a long time and in advance – they knew where to hit. The work of the Ukrainian Armed Forces artillery has been significantly complicated.
Three stages of the operation are viewed:
1️⃣ Taking the supply of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group in Avdeevka under fire control and creating a semi-boiler;
2️⃣Expansion of the “wings” from the north and south of the city to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from cutting them off;
3️⃣ Simultaneous pressure/compression along the perimeter of the half-boiler.
Doesn’t remind you of anything? This is Wagner’s plan to capture Bakhmut. It is no coincidence that there were rumors that former Wagnerites were involved in the development of the capture of Avdeevka☝️
We can say that in Avdeevka, Russian troops are training to carry out an offensive at the operational-tactical level with minimal losses of personnel. A kind of Bakhmut without “limitless” criminals. There are many gun barrels concentrated at one point on the front, a LOT of shells, supply cuts and pressure along the perimeter of the semi-cauldron.
Let’s see how the Ukrainian General Staff responds and whether Zelensky will repeat his “Fortets Bakhmut” mistake in Avdiivka.
Now the political situation is much worse than then. But if Ze demands to keep Avdeevka like Bakhmut, this is fraught with big problems☝🏻

https://t.me/ZeRada1/16268

Colleagues, the situation in Avdiivka is much more difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces than near Bakhmut, due to the remoteness of cities under Ukrainian control, which means the boiler can be slammed shut.
Now the General Staff is waiting for a change in the weather, which should help the Ukrainian troops, but the issue remains open for the winter period. The enemy is accumulating ammunition in Donetsk, which allows them to attack our troops with almost no losses.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20100

Posted by: Down South | Oct 13 2023 7:08 utc | 171

The problem with disabled people in Ukraine is gaining momentum. According to preliminary data, the number of disabled people in the country increased by 300 thousand and reached 3 million people. Moreover, given the protracted nature of the military conflict, this figure is not final and will only grow.
The scale of the problem can be judged from the words of the military commissar of the Poltava region, Vitaly Berezhny – he emphasizes that only 10 to 20% of those mobilized in the Poltava region are still combat-ready, and the rest were killed, wounded or disabled. It is clear that in other regions the situation is similar – that is why mobilization processes in the country do not stop – the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front (including irrecoverable ones) are too great.
And this leads us to an alarming conclusion – the loss of most of the working-age population and a large number of cripples in peacetime will become a serious risk of collapse of the Ukrainian economy.
The presence of millions of disabled people will place an unbearable burden on the country’s social sphere, and the West is unlikely to be ready to finance this expense item. And Ukraine’s budget is unlikely to cope with the problem – its deficit is only growing from year to year (just as the country’s national debt is increasing due to loans that the authorities have acquired and continue to accrue during wartime).

https://t.me/ZE_kartel/7842

As of February last year, there were 2,700,000 disabled people in Ukraine. Up to a third of them acquired injuries while participating in battles in Donbass since 2014. Now there are exactly 3 million disabled people in the country – and we are talking only about those who lost limbs due to combat (and, given the protracted nature of the military conflict, this figure is not final and will only grow).
At the same time, Kiev still does not have a state program for prosthetics; almost all those who were helped with prosthetics did not contact Ukrainian clinics directly, but rather foreign charitable organizations. These organizations paid for prosthetics, and not the Ukrainian authorities (which is generally logical, given the deficit state budget).
As a result, if the problem is not addressed now, it will reach its peak in peacetime, when Ukraine will be hit by the presence of millions of disabled people in the country. It is they who will place an unbearable burden on the country’s social sphere, and the West is unlikely to be ready to finance this expense item.
However, the Ukrainian authorities have already made it clear that there will be no benefits and compensation for disabled people in the foreseeable future. Thus, from 2025 in Ukraine they plan to abolish the concept of “disability”. Instead, a new term will be introduced – “loss of functionality”.
As stated by the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Health, Viktor Lyashko, Ukraine will abandon the previously existing “post-Soviet model”. According to him, it is necessary to return people to an economic state, and not to chase “disability, because it provides benefits and compensation.”

https://t.me/rezident_ua/20102

Posted by: Down South | Oct 13 2023 7:11 utc | 173

The end of the rope.
It’s a threat, they are telling the Russians they are out of patience. The second Ukraine grabbed the off shore oil rigs the west wanted a stalemate declared.

Posted by: OohCanada | Oct 13 2023 11:52 utc | 175

Posted by: OohCanada | Oct 13 2023 11:52 utc | 88
Interesting theory. Don’t think the US in a position to threaten Russia with anything in Ukraine, though.
One analogy would be that US is trying to run their motor (Ukraine) without lubrication (available manpower chewed up and continuously less trained) and they are now chewing through bearings.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 13 2023 13:00 utc | 177

Posted by: OohCanada | Oct 13 2023 11:52 utc | 88
That oil rigs, AFAIK, are not operational, they are only good as strategic military ‘bases’.
RF can blow them in minutes if it was necessarym

Posted by: Mario | Oct 13 2023 13:06 utc | 179

I hope Russia finishes the encirclement of Avdivka and doesn’t do the “cauldron” thing to draw in more forces and equipment. I hope they pinch it off decisively & effectively as quickly as possible.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 13 2023 14:14 utc | 181

I wonder if the US has an agreement with Russia that it will acknowledge its loss in Ukraine and just get out in exchange for Russia’s cooperation to de-escalate the situation in the Middle East.
Posted by: Monte Cristo | Oct 12 2023 22:57 utc | 71
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 12 2023 23:04 utc | 73
Educated guess: That’s pretty much what Wang Yi and Sullivan discussed in Malta, a month ago.

Posted by: smuks | Oct 13 2023 16:08 utc | 183

The ukrainian offensive is over, Zelensky has no future:

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Vasily Nebenzya, Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations announced the end of the Armed Forces of Ukraine counter-attack and the beginning of the Russian offensive:
( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djUMHvGDwhc )
“For several days now, Russian troops have switched to active combat operations along almost the entire front line. Thus, the so-called Ukrainian counter-offensive can be considered completed. Its price, unfortunately, was tens of thousands of recruits mobilized by the Kyiv regime, most of whom did not want to fight. Lucky were those who found the opportunity to surrender and remained alive. Well, hundreds of units of destroyed Western equipment – the Kiev regime cannot boast of anything else during these four months. However, our Western colleagues, instead of putting an end to this massacre, continue to feed him weapons, like a drug to a drug addict. Thus prolonging his agony.
Their task, through the hands of Ukraine, is to inflict as much damage on Russia as possible, and also to make the territory of Ukraine as uninhabitable as possible. This is despite the fact that Ukraine and the Ukrainians were never threatened and are not threatened. That Ukraine that lives in peace with its neighbors and respects the rights of all its citizens.They discriminate them. Such a Ukraine had and still has a future. The criminal neo-Nazi regime of Zelensky, which has formed an internal tyranny, does not have it.”

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/86152

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 13 2023 16:11 utc | 185

The Telegraph reports:

British howitzers fall silent in Ukraine because of ‘catastrophic’ shortage of shells
Soldiers have been reduced to firing weapons less than once a day and some are resorting to using Second World War-era field guns instead
British artillery guns supplied to Ukraine are falling silent on the battlefield because of a lack of ammunition for them, front-line troops have told The Telegraph.
Ukrainian soldiers trained by Nato on L119 howitzers have been reduced to firing them less than once a day because of a “catastrophic” shortage of shells.
One front-line unit said they had ended up using a Second World War-era field gun instead, as it still had stocks of shells available.
The revelation comes after Nato’s most senior military official warned last week that the alliance was fast running out of artillery shells to give to Ukraine.
…

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/13/british-howitzers-ukraine-shells-shortage-soldiers-nato/

Posted by: too scents | Oct 13 2023 16:40 utc | 187

Posted by: Down South | Oct 13 2023 7:08 utc | 86
A Bakhmut replay would make a lot of sense, provided AFU still have sufficient forces to feed into it, idk.
I was kind of expecting that for Kupyansk, but Avdeevka works just as well.
The more AFU is bled out, the easier and less costly the coming Russian offensive.
There’s no hurry, or is there?
As for disabled war veterans – good thing is, agriculture 4.0 machinery is operated remotely from computers. Who needs legs, when you can work for Cargill etc. sitting in a warm office or even in bed?

Posted by: smuks | Oct 13 2023 16:42 utc | 189

https://vz.ru/news/2023/10/13/1234819.html
Ukrainian football club “Shakhter” confirms that one of its players, Aleksandr Rosput’ko, has disappeared. He was in Belgium where he took part in a match but did not return to Ukraine by plane with the rest of the team. His current whereabouts are unknown. Rosput’ko was born in Gorlovka in the Donetsk Republic and he was reputed to be pro-Russian.

Posted by: Waldorf | Oct 13 2023 17:38 utc | 191

Posted by: Down South | Oct 13 2023 7:08 utc | 86
This is the standard Russian MO, pause, stockpile, probe, sledgehammer. There was never any serious disruption of Russian artillery ammo, beyond the voluntary reduction caused by amassing thousands of tonnes of shells, to be used to achieve the tabular results for neutralising entrenched/fortified targets. Ukraine’s offensive has a similar logistical/operational approach but could never amass the sledgehammer application, a weakness compounded by continuing the attacks when there was little chance of any significant operational gains.
Russia can now pick where and when to attack, whilst Ukraine, thanks to NATO’s ISR assistance, can clearly see the blows coming but can only brace for their impact, not block or stop them. I don’t think the Ukrainian Army will hold much longer, as the MLR is inexorably forced back, past key cities, towns and symbolically past their offensives meagre gains (Robotyne) and their initial start lines. Just as in Operation Bagration, an opponent who had tenaciously and effectively fought for a year collapsed within weeks of its start.

Posted by: Milites | Oct 13 2023 20:17 utc | 193

Military summary, and some other sources claim AFU has 15k troops in Avdeevka. Whether that is accurate and it means only city limits or the entire region (including fields west and north-west) I’m not sure. It most likely means in and around the city.
Apparently there was AFU counter-attack which supposedly took the slag mountain but RU might gained it back. There is also supposedly some battle going in the very north of Avdeevka city limits, in and around the chemical plant. The chemical plant is the single most important place in Avdeevka, giving absolute control and cutting the north-south road and very close fire access to the east-west road north of Lastochkyne.
AFU forced to push their rail staging area back from Ocheryne to Pokrovsk rail head, maybe 20-30km west. Ocherytne got bombed. But even Pokrovsk has been occasionally hit.
RU managed to establish control of the area immediately east of Pervomaiske, which should help secure the western flank of the Avdeevka cauldron. Of course, long range fire is always possible.
No update from around Sieverne, but assumed RU controls the fields around it but not the village itself.
On the northern flank RU still needs to secure the area north of Krasnogorovka before they can move west.
In Rabotyne-Verbove area, RU actually managed to take back a decent chunk of territory east of Novopokrovka. That seems to be the final nail in the coffin of the spring counter-offensive. AFU also continues “meat assault” in Verbove with no gains. The meat assault seems to get smaller in size.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 13 2023 20:39 utc | 195

Looks like Jim Jordan on the way to becoming House speaker …. latest
Unconfirmed rumours that Pres. Zelenski having an unusually mild break-down

Posted by: Don Firineach | Oct 13 2023 20:59 utc | 197

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 13 2023 16:11 utc | 93
Thank you, Norwegian for bringing that speechat the UN.

Posted by: juliania | Oct 13 2023 21:26 utc | 199