Just read the Chas Freeman article that B posted in the weekly summary. Little new for barflies, but it does a good job of summarizing the origins and likely outcomes of the war.
One point he makes that I hadn’t thought much about is that the war will probably harden the hearts of most Ukrainians against Russia forever (and perhaps vice versa). In 50 years, it probably won’t be like (say) UK and Germany. Rather, it will be more like India and Pakistan, or maybe South and North Korea.
This is very sad, but it’s difficult to see what else Russia could have done. Not sure whether Ukraine could have avoided the war or not–did they have the power to resist NATO designs?

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 2 2023 8:53 utc | 203

Russia imports very little from India . . .
Posted by: eritrea | Oct 1 2023 14:18 utc | 4 The obvious solution is to import more from India. India has lots to sell that Russia needs, cars, trucks, trains, tools, parts, electronics etc etc

Posted by: DiggerDan | Oct 2 2023 8:53 utc | 205

RE: “But Russia already set up the production lines and can still get components through ”luggage” due to geographical proximity”
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 2 2023 6:39 utc | 93
I agree. I’m addition, I do believe Iran has increased production and may be selling partial kits, or parts as well.
So, Chinas move was more about limiting Ukraine.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 2 2023 9:47 utc | 207

Posted by: whirlX | Oct 1 2023 18:54 utc | 48

….
Odesa Raion is very important and far from being peripheral. All along Romanian border
there is huge NATO presence, few crucial airports (Tulcea and a few surrounding airfields being upgraded) and it was the NATO’s nightmare region in 70s and 80s fearing the first breakthrough by Soviets just there…..

does this actually hurt?
such a crap !

Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 2 2023 10:57 utc | 209

Re: Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Oct 2 2023 7:37 utc | 98
You are making a heck of a lot of assumptions there.

Posted by: Julian | Oct 2 2023 11:58 utc | 211

Re: Posted by: rk | Oct 2 2023 8:43 utc | 104
Ha – I’ll pay that. Pithy and to the point.

Posted by: Julian | Oct 2 2023 12:00 utc | 213

by ghiwen | Oct 2 2023 10:57 utc | 108
Yes, it hurts NATO bad to have RF on Romanian border instead of Ukraine. Doh.

Posted by: whirlX | Oct 2 2023 12:39 utc | 215

Politico dares to aks the unaskable lol
In our series ‘scratch an anti-communist (or just any anti-Russian today) and you find a fascist’:
“Fighting against the USSR didn’t necessarily make you a Nazi
Canada’s Hunka scandal is a demonstration of how when history is complicated, it can be a gift to propagandists who exploit the appeal of simplicity.”
A statement which hilariously is followed by: “Keir Giles is an author and commentator. His most recent book, “Russia’s War on Everybody,” looks at the effects that Russia’s malign influence around the world has on ordinary people.”
Propagandists and simplicity indeed lol
https://www.politico.eu/article/fight-against-ussr-nazi-waffen-ss-trooper-yaroslav-hunka-world-war-ii-soviet-union-germany/

Posted by: Bart | Oct 2 2023 13:36 utc | 217

Posted by: DiggerDan | Oct 2 2023 8:53 utc | 106
What if the quality is terrible?

Posted by: eritrea | Oct 2 2023 13:41 utc | 219

Brian Berletic has a video up on “NATO testing waters on buffer zone” discussing recent noise about setting up weapons manufacturing in Ukraine after freezing the conflict. Of course they cannot do this without a ceasefire. As I don’t believe Russia would ever accept such an outcome, perhaps their strategy for the moment is to continue the war of attrition without any bold offensive moves that might provoke panic in the west and harden the weakening resolve to continue supporting Ukraine indefinitely. Only after a further breakdown of consensus on support combined with fatal weakening of the UAF will they be inclined to move further west, choosing a time when it will be too late for any coherent response to be organized effectively.
Biden and Borell (and the UK of course) are insisting that support will continue indefinitely, despite current setbacks. However time is not on their side, and, absent a panic attack, this winter may see increasing divisions within the EU over the deteriorating economic situation and issues with migration.
Russia has been bombing the Ukrainian rear on a daily basis for nearly two months now, and in a few more months the remaining Ukrainian AD will likely be so degraded that most attacks will be successful. Seems like f16 deliveries are still months away and the capability to resist significant incursions may be eliminated.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 2 2023 14:29 utc | 221

@ Jane, §82:
Poland did just that in 1938 when Hitler carved up Czechoslovakia. The Poles opportunistically grabbed Teschen, Orava, Neubela in Zips and many other small pieces of Czechoslovakia.

Posted by: John Marks | Oct 2 2023 15:47 utc | 223

@ Bart, §112:
Keir Giles is a reptile inhabiting the swamp called Chatham House, England.

Posted by: John Marks | Oct 2 2023 16:06 utc | 225

Keir Giles is a Nazi apologist. And will be remembered as such.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 2 2023 16:18 utc | 227

Don’t worry.
When they start mobilising the women then the average age will drop again.

Posted by: Jl555 | Oct 2 2023 16:35 utc | 229

Posted by: AI | Oct 1 2023 17:11 utc | 29
«The true military cost of the war in Ukraine at the moment exceeds 1.5 trillion USD and the reconstruction more than 5 trillion USD.»
——————————————
Those are fantasy numbers, perhaps estimated using New York City subway contractor pricing. Ukraine is much cheaper, it is not even worth $5 trillion to rebuild it from scratch, or to purchase it as it was before 2014, never mind before 2022.
Posted by: Blissex | Oct 1 2023 17:30 utc | 33
——————————————————
I agree with you Blissex, 1.5 trillion USD does seem excessive and $5 trillion for overall cost and clean up and repairs is a staggering number. But bear in mind, we are not just talking about the US contributions, almost all of the NATO countries have made contributions and/or have promised to contribute both capital and weapons in the future (weapons that are bigger, more destructive, and far more costly) that must be replaced as well.
On top of that many countries that are not part of NATO but are US/NATO ass kissers have made, and will make, contributions to the kitty: Consider Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Israel and others.
But by the time this historical event is over and done with, and all reparations are paid, and Ukraine’s war debt is paid, and Ukraine and Russia rebuild their infrastructure, the wounded and the families of the both Russia and Ukraine are compensated, I suspect that 4 or 5 trillion USD could well be inside the ballpark.
A waste of capital for no good reason other than Biden and the neo-cons that had his ear, wanted it to be that way. If there is a hell in the next life, we know who will be dancing on the bottom level.

Posted by: Ed | Oct 2 2023 21:14 utc | 231

More western lies exposed.
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/display-page-ndp/en-20230815-global-wealth-report-2023.html
This is the 2023 global wealth report.
It says Russia, India, Brazil had the largest wealth gains in 2022 while USA, Japan, Canada and Australia lost most wealth.
Russian wealth growth was the highest in the world in 2022.
This gives the sanctions vultures the middle finger. Their efforts backfired.

Posted by: Jason | Oct 2 2023 23:53 utc | 233

While it is only Al Jazeera with a limited exposure at least a little part of what happened at UNGA is leaking out into mainstream western media circles.
‘Empire of lies’: Russia’s Lavrov slams West in UN speech
Russia’s foreign minister glosses over Ukraine, accuses Western allies of neo-colonialism at the UN General Assembly.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/23/empire-of-lies-russias-lavrov-slams-west-in-un-speech

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Oct 3 2023 0:39 utc | 235

Politico recently published an article headlined “Leaked U.S. strategy on Ukraine sees corruption as the real threat”, which at face value already highlights a narrative that was frequently bashed by Zelenskyites and the Pro-NATO crowd as being a total non-issue being made up by “vatniks”. However, the article gets much worse than the headline or the matter of corruption. Further reading discusses the leaked US strategy on conducting massive reforms in Ukraine, changing Ukrainian society and governance to a form favored by the Biden admin.
This basically spotlights what anybody with a critical take on the war was mentioning. Under the war conditions that prohibit most civic activities and allow broad executive powers to Zelensky, the US is forcing through liberalization and pro-Western reform of Ukraine with absolutely no input from the Ukrainian public. Under the guise of “fighting for their democracy”, the US has essentially puppeteered Zelensky to enact undemocratic changes in the country, especially considering the banning of opposition parties, punishment of any dissent, and martial law ensuring that these developments are tightly controlled from the top down.
POLITICO – Leaked U.S. strategy on Ukraine sees corruption as the real threat
For example:

“Deoligarchization, particularly of the energy and mining sectors, is a core tenet to building back a better Ukraine,” the public part of the strategy declares. One indicator of success, the confidential version states, is that the Ukrainian government “embraces meaningful reforms decentralizing control of the energy sector.”
The United States appears eager to help Ukrainian institutions build their oversight capacities. The goals listed include everything from helping local governments assess corruption risks to reforms in human resources offices.

Somebody ask Ukrainians how they feel about the US dictating the nature of Ukrainian society, government, and their economy without bothering to actually ask Ukrainians what they think about these changes being pushed without their knowledge, without allowing them to debate these changes in public, and without even giving them a chance to actually vote on reforms that directly affect the future of their country. Everything from instituting that Ukrainian schools teach English to requiring the Ukrainian military to adopt NATO terminology to a wide-range of economic liberalization under the guise of “anti-corruption” (somebody explain to me how private banks are somehow the model of anti-corruption when banks like HSBC, Deutsche, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs etc. are swimming in a sea of controversies revolving around fraud, corruption, and exploitation).

Posted by: BrainiacX | Oct 3 2023 1:18 utc | 237

The confusing battle of the memes continues.
US Congress: more money for Ukraine to defeat the Russians. They need more to face the current challenges.
Blinken’s DoS, as brought to us by NYT: could be this, could be that, it has not been going well.
CIA via WaPo, there are many challenges to be faced.
The only entity in all of US creation, in my book, has been NYT. Please, tell us of more disaffection in the Outlaw US Empire. Reducing funding is not the same as ‘they are losers and were all along.’

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 3 2023 2:05 utc | 239

What is Russias capacity for offensively placing sea mines? Seems like mining the coast SW of Odessa would close off the route to Romanian waters used to export grain without needing active patrolling

Posted by: Doug B | Oct 3 2023 2:48 utc | 241

Regarding Odessa, hard to see how the Black Sea fleet, the Kerch bridge, and Crimea will ever be safe so long as the Ukrs control the Odessa region. It has to be taken at all costs. Russia doesn’t seem to have the manpower now to take it, but they’re going to have find the manpower eventually.

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Oct 3 2023 4:20 utc | 243

My latest substack effort provides the Crooke-Napolitano chat and links to his latest essay while providing “Additional Context for Crooke-Napolitano Chat: Weaponizing Ethnicity”.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 3 2023 4:26 utc | 245

I wouldn’t read too much into the US Congress not including Ukraine funds in the 45-day continuing resolution that funds the government for the next 45 days. There are rumors that McCarthy has already made a deal with Democrats that Ukraine funding will be included in the next deal. There probably already is enough funding in the pipeline to carry Ukraine through the next 45 days. It’s not possible that the Democrats and RINO Republican warmongers would not fund Ukraine. They’re all Russophobes who hate Russia mainly because it is not LGBTIQ friendly.

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Oct 3 2023 4:30 utc | 247

Speaking of LGBTIQ, there was a report a few days ago about a journalist named James Young (no other info) who works in Ukraine who secretly recorded a conversation he had with two young women from Kyiv, who attended Kyiv Medical University. In the conversation, the girls mentioned a party they attended at the famous Rixos Psykarpattya Hotel in Kyiv in October 2021. Apparently many high profile people in Ukraine were at the party, including Zelensky. At some point, one of the girls looked around the party for her friend and, in one room, she saw Zelenskyy in a compromising position with a man. So if you want to know why the Western media and political establishment are so in love with this guy, you don’t need to look any further than this incident. It explains everything.

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Oct 3 2023 4:49 utc | 249

New Simplicius just dropped – of especial note is his dissection of the latest Rand report.
In a nutshell, NATO is besides themselves because Russia refuses to be baited into escalating the SMO or moving more quickly.
I find this especially fascinating because, for all the extensive comments on this board begging Russia to move more quickly, the RF continues to do the one thing NATO can’t seem to handle, win, and win at a measured pace of it’s own choosing.
I personally would love to see a “big-arrow” offensive, I mean really, who doesn’t want to see the GAE get it’s comeuppance? But after a year of this conflict it seems pretty obvious that what Putin, the RF and MOD are doing in going slow, is exactly what it takes to win against NATO and the west.

Posted by: Ezz | Oct 3 2023 4:50 utc | 251

I find this especially fascinating because, for all the extensive comments on this board begging Russia to move more quickly….Posted by: Ezz | Oct 3 2023 4:50 utc | 130
Ezz, I think they’re trying to wear down the West to undermine its support for Ukraine. And this is gradually happening except among the most diehard Russia haters in the UK and US.
But another reason I’ve seen cited for the go-slow approach is the problem Russia would face in trying to administer large parts of Ukraine that would be rebellious and impossible to subjugate except through the harshest of measures, which would alienate much of the world. So the alternative is to go slow, rehabilitate each little part as they take it, then move on to the next area. I think the process will proceed at a quicker pace once the Ukrs are completely exhausted and drained. But still, subduing even small regions of Ukraine will take what seems like a long time.

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Oct 3 2023 5:32 utc | 253

Military summary had interesting details from the Urozhaine area.
A few days ago RUAF destroyed two bridges in Vely Novosilka (north of Urozhaine). And recently they launched an attack toward Urozhaine from the south-east and east. AFU deployed their reserves from the north, but were forced to take a path detouring on the western bank of the river. Apparently the reinforcement convoy toward Urozhaine travelled a pre-determined firing area of TOS systems which hit the convoy.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2023 8:12 utc | 255

If your military is manned by 15 year olds and 65 year olds the average age is 15+65=80/2=40 years old.

Posted by: Karl Friedrich | Oct 3 2023 8:51 utc | 257

If R wanted to compete with the US Liquified Natural Gas carriers they could adopt LNG to barges. Load at Ust-luga, discharge at Rugen. Sea-route is about 750nm. Mostly ice-free but then R has quite a few ice-breakers so that meeting schedules in all weather is possible. I don’t think US sources would be happy with such competition. Surely R has this back-up plan already in the design phase, could implement in just a few months if contracts were signed. It would be a hint that Germany was putting on its big-boy pants.

Posted by: Tusky | Oct 3 2023 14:47 utc | 259

@135
Yes they are.

Posted by: the pessimists | Oct 3 2023 16:27 utc | 261

indian punchline from today… worth the read..
War Fatigue Complicates West’s Aid to Ukraine

Posted by: james | Oct 3 2023 16:37 utc | 263

Unpacking the Nazi Skeletons in Canada’s Closet with John Helmer:
https://matthewehret.substack.com/p/unpacking-the-nazi-skeletons-in-canadas
https://johnhelmer.org/canada-and-the-nato-alliance-against-russia-hunker-down-to-defend-race-war-against-russia-the-new-evidence/#more-71089

Posted by: windship | Oct 3 2023 19:20 utc | 265

The population of Ukraine at independence in 1991 was 52 million.
By 2010, following the collapse of the economy, society and health system as a result of non stop looting by oligarchs like Kolomoisky and his ilk and western carpetbaggers like the Biden Crime Family, this had fallen to 38 million, with a further 7.5 million scratching a living working abroad, either picking cabbages in Poland or as the ubiquitous “Natasha” prostitutes.
Since then, Crimea and Donbas have been lost (2.5 and 5 million.) Plus the populations of the 2 further southern oblasts.
Millions have fled abroad to Russia and the EU.
Hundreds of thousands more Ukrainians have fallen in battle.
Probably at most 20 million, probably less, are left in the area controlled by the Kiev Regime. A third of the 1991 population.
So let’s get the grandpas and their grandkids into the Volksturm. All good cannon fodder for Wallace and Nuland.

Posted by: anon | Oct 4 2023 1:02 utc | 267

Everywhere this morning in the Press I read that “radical” elements of the House polity ousted their Speaker.
The “radical” method for removing the Speaker was to bring the question to a vote.
Voting is bad when it goes the wrong way. Read all about it in your newspaper.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 4 2023 5:20 utc | 269

…as a result of non stop looting by oligarchs like Kolomoisky and his ilk and western carpetbaggers like the Biden Crime Family…. Posted by: anon | Oct 4 2023 1:02 utc | 136
For the political and corporate vultures in the US, Ukraine was just roadkill. We know about Biden’s capers only because his kid left his laptop at a repair shop. Otherwise, we know almost nothing. We know that John Kerry’s son was also involved in Ukraine. How many more, who knows?
Within a few years after Maidan, half the young people had fled the country because there were no jobs. The only job for young women was prostitution. And because of that, an epidemic of HIV swept Ukraine to the point that the government found it necessary to provide a fleet of medic units that roamed about the major cities like Odessa testing for HIV and handing out drugs for free.

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Oct 5 2023 5:39 utc | 271