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October 1, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-229
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Wagner’s new, government aligned chief, with a military career stretching all the way back to Afghanistan in the 1980s, then Chechnya, then Syria with an interlude in the police in between:
https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/2023/10/01/ukraine-war-day-585-meet-the-new-wagner-boss/
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 1 2023 14:10 utc | 1
Wagner’s new, government aligned chief, with a military career stretching all the way back to Afghanistan in the 1980s, then Chechnya, then Syria with an interlude in the police in between:
https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/2023/10/01/ukraine-war-day-585-meet-the-new-wagner-boss/
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 1 2023 14:10 utc | 2
@5jumpchump 1:
Not without an across the board Ukranazistani collapse it won’t. It would first have to retake Kherson and then either capture Nikolayev or else as in WWII bypass Nikolayev and take Odessa from the north. Absolutely nothing indicates Russia is going to make any offensive moves in the south east.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 1 2023 14:12 utc | 3
@5jumpchump 1:
Not without an across the board Ukranazistani collapse it won’t. It would first have to retake Kherson and then either capture Nikolayev or else as in WWII bypass Nikolayev and take Odessa from the north. Absolutely nothing indicates Russia is going to make any offensive moves in the south east.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 1 2023 14:12 utc | 4
Russia supposedly has tens of billions of dollars worth of Indian rupees stuck in its bank account in India from oil sales priced in rupees because Russia is not allowed to convert the rupees into dollars or euros.
“The imbalance in trade for Russia means “the volume of ‘frozen funds’ can reach tens of billions of dollars,” said Alexander Knobel, director of the Institute of International Economics and Finance of the Ministry of Economic Development. “The situation is aggravated by India’s historically high aggregate trade deficit, which reduces the possibilities of clearing settlements with third countries.” https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/russia-says-it-has-billions-of-indian-rupees-that-it-cant-use/articleshow/100027487.cms?from=mdr
Has Russia tried working with China on using the rupees? Russia imports very little from India but China imported $3.5 billion in iron ore in 2021. Russia could buy iron ore from India on behalf of Chinese buyers and the Chinese buyers can pay Russia directly with a more usable currency.
Posted by: eritrea | Oct 1 2023 14:18 utc | 5
Russia supposedly has tens of billions of dollars worth of Indian rupees stuck in its bank account in India from oil sales priced in rupees because Russia is not allowed to convert the rupees into dollars or euros.
“The imbalance in trade for Russia means “the volume of ‘frozen funds’ can reach tens of billions of dollars,” said Alexander Knobel, director of the Institute of International Economics and Finance of the Ministry of Economic Development. “The situation is aggravated by India’s historically high aggregate trade deficit, which reduces the possibilities of clearing settlements with third countries.” https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/russia-says-it-has-billions-of-indian-rupees-that-it-cant-use/articleshow/100027487.cms?from=mdr
Has Russia tried working with China on using the rupees? Russia imports very little from India but China imported $3.5 billion in iron ore in 2021. Russia could buy iron ore from India on behalf of Chinese buyers and the Chinese buyers can pay Russia directly with a more usable currency.
Posted by: eritrea | Oct 1 2023 14:18 utc | 6
The published number of Lancet drone strikes reached 549 for September. Compared to 261 in August.
https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1708478061019050348
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 14:20 utc | 7
The published number of Lancet drone strikes reached 549 for September. Compared to 261 in August.
https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1708478061019050348
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 14:20 utc | 8
Regarding Odessa, I have to wonder how successful Russia has been with infiltrating the city with its agents, establishing informants, and winning over officials.
If push came to shove, and Russian artillery started pounding the outer city defenses, would the leadership of Odessa that had made their home there, and invested there, be amenable to getting paid to declare Odessa an open city? Imo, if and when the current Ukrainian offensive gets routed, and the Russian forces are later seen as dominating the narrative of the battlefield, the residents of Odessa will start considering their options for if Russia come knocking at their door.
Russian assets could take out key figures loyal to the regime in Kiev, if they had the cooperation of security forces within the city. Those that bet on the winning side could become incredibly successful once the war ended, and Odessa fully reopened to trade.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 1 2023 14:25 utc | 9
Regarding Odessa, I have to wonder how successful Russia has been with infiltrating the city with its agents, establishing informants, and winning over officials.
If push came to shove, and Russian artillery started pounding the outer city defenses, would the leadership of Odessa that had made their home there, and invested there, be amenable to getting paid to declare Odessa an open city? Imo, if and when the current Ukrainian offensive gets routed, and the Russian forces are later seen as dominating the narrative of the battlefield, the residents of Odessa will start considering their options for if Russia come knocking at their door.
Russian assets could take out key figures loyal to the regime in Kiev, if they had the cooperation of security forces within the city. Those that bet on the winning side could become incredibly successful once the war ended, and Odessa fully reopened to trade.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 1 2023 14:25 utc | 10
I think there will be lots of people on the Russian side who will want to take Odessa. Medvedev, in hawkish mood, said that Russia will take back more Russian territory in the future – so he’s one of them. But whether it will happen is a difficult question to answer.
Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 1 2023 14:32 utc | 11
I think there will be lots of people on the Russian side who will want to take Odessa. Medvedev, in hawkish mood, said that Russia will take back more Russian territory in the future – so he’s one of them. But whether it will happen is a difficult question to answer.
Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 1 2023 14:32 utc | 12
5jumpchump @1: “Will RF take odessa?”
Of course. The Empire of Delusions isn’t giving Russia a choice in the matter. Russia will never be able to secure their western borders without cutting NATO off from access to the Ukraine from the Black Sea.
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 1 2023 14:35 utc | 13
5jumpchump @1: “Will RF take odessa?”
Of course. The Empire of Delusions isn’t giving Russia a choice in the matter. Russia will never be able to secure their western borders without cutting NATO off from access to the Ukraine from the Black Sea.
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 1 2023 14:35 utc | 14
The head of the SBU, at the direction of the Office of the President, is engaged in discrediting the UOC in the eyes of Ukrainian society.
His statement that one UOC priest was exchanged for 28 Ukrainian soldiers is a manipulation to convince the people that everyone who supports the UOC is Kremlin agents, like churchmen, who need to be caught and exchanged for Ukrainian captured soldiers.
The head of the SBU is deliberately trying to push people together in order to intensify not just a religious war, but to start a religious massacre.
We hope that the head of the SBU, Malyuk, when he passes into another world, will receive a place in hell near the “bowl”.
Colleagues are right that Ermak’s protege, Head of the SBU Malyuk, on the instructions of Bankova and Zelensky personally, is trying to antagonize society by staging a “religious massacre,” as he releases deliberately false information to the masses. Since there were no such exchanges.
In fact, the Head of the SBU is calling for some kind of “Jewish pogroms,” only instead of Jews, now there are churchmen and followers of the UOC, who are to blame for all sins (just like Hitler blamed the Jews for everything). By the way, we were the first to know about Zelensky’s strategy.
The goal of the SBU, as well as the Office of the President, is to discredit the UOC. The best way to do this is with the help of outright lies, which tame media, public pages on social networks and LOMs will not refute, since everything and everyone is under the hood. Consequently, everyone will spread lies and instill them in the people, keeping them in an information aquarium, saying and showing only what is beneficial to the authorities.
Previously, the authorities hired youngsters for provocations near the Lavra.
Note that everything that Zelensky promised is happening in the opposite direction.
He promised peace, but got war.
He promised not to touch the media, but they received a purge and sanctions.
He promised not to interfere in the affairs of the church, but they ended up in a religious war.
He promised justice, but received the permissiveness of his entourage, which steals billions.
This is a hint to those who now believed him in his promises of victory, no matter how it turns out like last time… after all, at first he creates the illusion that he is fulfilling what he promised, but then he makes a sharp U-turn!
Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2023 14:46 utc | 15
The head of the SBU, at the direction of the Office of the President, is engaged in discrediting the UOC in the eyes of Ukrainian society.
His statement that one UOC priest was exchanged for 28 Ukrainian soldiers is a manipulation to convince the people that everyone who supports the UOC is Kremlin agents, like churchmen, who need to be caught and exchanged for Ukrainian captured soldiers.
The head of the SBU is deliberately trying to push people together in order to intensify not just a religious war, but to start a religious massacre.
We hope that the head of the SBU, Malyuk, when he passes into another world, will receive a place in hell near the “bowl”.
Colleagues are right that Ermak’s protege, Head of the SBU Malyuk, on the instructions of Bankova and Zelensky personally, is trying to antagonize society by staging a “religious massacre,” as he releases deliberately false information to the masses. Since there were no such exchanges.
In fact, the Head of the SBU is calling for some kind of “Jewish pogroms,” only instead of Jews, now there are churchmen and followers of the UOC, who are to blame for all sins (just like Hitler blamed the Jews for everything). By the way, we were the first to know about Zelensky’s strategy.
The goal of the SBU, as well as the Office of the President, is to discredit the UOC. The best way to do this is with the help of outright lies, which tame media, public pages on social networks and LOMs will not refute, since everything and everyone is under the hood. Consequently, everyone will spread lies and instill them in the people, keeping them in an information aquarium, saying and showing only what is beneficial to the authorities.
Previously, the authorities hired youngsters for provocations near the Lavra.
Note that everything that Zelensky promised is happening in the opposite direction.
He promised peace, but got war.
He promised not to touch the media, but they received a purge and sanctions.
He promised not to interfere in the affairs of the church, but they ended up in a religious war.
He promised justice, but received the permissiveness of his entourage, which steals billions.
This is a hint to those who now believed him in his promises of victory, no matter how it turns out like last time… after all, at first he creates the illusion that he is fulfilling what he promised, but then he makes a sharp U-turn!
Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2023 14:46 utc | 16
Ukraine Weekly Update – May be Useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-93c
Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 1 2023 14:46 utc | 17
Ukraine Weekly Update – May be Useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-93c
Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 1 2023 14:46 utc | 18
Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2023 14:46 utc | 9
Just a note. That is old news. Got the TG’s horribly mixed up.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2023 14:50 utc | 19
Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2023 14:46 utc | 9
Just a note. That is old news. Got the TG’s horribly mixed up.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2023 14:50 utc | 20
🇺🇸 Biden will support the US government funding bill passed by the House of Representatives – Washington Post
This is the boldest hint that Zelensky has ever received. However, he is not the one who takes hints and thinks 100 moves ahead. That’s the whole point of the situation ☝🏻
Zelensky has 45 days to convince the Americans, not with words (promises), but with deeds, that it is necessary to finance the Ukrainian crisis, since there is a real result, and not an illusion created by the Office of the President.
During these 45 days the following may occur:
1. A real full-scale offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ze will throw all his forces into the attack (the Americans have been demanding this since the spring). The problem is that it can expose the rear and if the Ukrainian Armed Forces fail, the entire defense can crumble if the Russians launch a counterattack from different sides.
2. Something will happen (tragedy, catastrophe, liquidation of someone, terrorist attack, international emergency). This will return information views to the Ukrainian crisis and world sympathy, which should change public sentiment, which will then result in new funding for Kyiv by the West. I don’t think it’s worth telling anyone it will be beneficial.
3. Zelensky will come to terms with the fact that it is necessary to freeze the conflict and will begin to gently sway public opinion and prepare for elections.
4. Ukraine will go on the defensive, throw mines at everything, and de facto it will be a frozen conflict, but de jure it won’t, since they won’t sign anything. At the same time, UAVs and missile warfare will intensify.
Time is against Zelensky. In reality, there will be enough money until the end of the summer of 2024, then there will be “zero”, then hyperinflation and collapse.
The hryvnia may already fall to 40-44 per $1.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2023 14:54 utc | 21
🇺🇸 Biden will support the US government funding bill passed by the House of Representatives – Washington Post
This is the boldest hint that Zelensky has ever received. However, he is not the one who takes hints and thinks 100 moves ahead. That’s the whole point of the situation ☝🏻
Zelensky has 45 days to convince the Americans, not with words (promises), but with deeds, that it is necessary to finance the Ukrainian crisis, since there is a real result, and not an illusion created by the Office of the President.
During these 45 days the following may occur:
1. A real full-scale offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ze will throw all his forces into the attack (the Americans have been demanding this since the spring). The problem is that it can expose the rear and if the Ukrainian Armed Forces fail, the entire defense can crumble if the Russians launch a counterattack from different sides.
2. Something will happen (tragedy, catastrophe, liquidation of someone, terrorist attack, international emergency). This will return information views to the Ukrainian crisis and world sympathy, which should change public sentiment, which will then result in new funding for Kyiv by the West. I don’t think it’s worth telling anyone it will be beneficial.
3. Zelensky will come to terms with the fact that it is necessary to freeze the conflict and will begin to gently sway public opinion and prepare for elections.
4. Ukraine will go on the defensive, throw mines at everything, and de facto it will be a frozen conflict, but de jure it won’t, since they won’t sign anything. At the same time, UAVs and missile warfare will intensify.
Time is against Zelensky. In reality, there will be enough money until the end of the summer of 2024, then there will be “zero”, then hyperinflation and collapse.
The hryvnia may already fall to 40-44 per $1.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2023 14:54 utc | 22
reply to 12
Zelensky may get what he wants quickly. There is talk of a Monday vote on Ukr. aid. Combine traitorous Republicans with pro-war Democrats and it’s done.
Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 1 2023 14:59 utc | 23
reply to 12
Zelensky may get what he wants quickly. There is talk of a Monday vote on Ukr. aid. Combine traitorous Republicans with pro-war Democrats and it’s done.
Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 1 2023 14:59 utc | 24
Replacing Zelensky would be like shuffling the deckchairs on the Titanic. But maybe it will have a refreshing PR effect, after all which is most important.
Re. US aid – the real issue isn’t printed dollars, it’s that there isn’t that much stuff they realistically can give to Ukraine. And with current divergence of production between Nato and Russia, it is a futile effort. The return on investment has diminished to a very small at this point.
I guess the real question is: US dished out $100 billion in a single year for the purpose of ultimately receiving Crimea. Is US willing to spend another $100 billion (probably much more now due to rise in manufacturing costs and the bill to fund Ukraine’s budget, hugely in deficit) just so Ukraine could be able to hold for a while longer the line?
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 15:19 utc | 25
Replacing Zelensky would be like shuffling the deckchairs on the Titanic. But maybe it will have a refreshing PR effect, after all which is most important.
Re. US aid – the real issue isn’t printed dollars, it’s that there isn’t that much stuff they realistically can give to Ukraine. And with current divergence of production between Nato and Russia, it is a futile effort. The return on investment has diminished to a very small at this point.
I guess the real question is: US dished out $100 billion in a single year for the purpose of ultimately receiving Crimea. Is US willing to spend another $100 billion (probably much more now due to rise in manufacturing costs and the bill to fund Ukraine’s budget, hugely in deficit) just so Ukraine could be able to hold for a while longer the line?
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 15:19 utc | 26
Whatever happened to the foreign legion?
Several months ago, CNN, Zelensky, et al, were a buzz about Americans, Canadians, British, etc. volunteering to fight in Ukraine. What happened to them? CNN used to interview these volunteers and they suddenly stopped.
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Oct 1 2023 15:52 utc | 27
Whatever happened to the foreign legion?
Several months ago, CNN, Zelensky, et al, were a buzz about Americans, Canadians, British, etc. volunteering to fight in Ukraine. What happened to them? CNN used to interview these volunteers and they suddenly stopped.
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Oct 1 2023 15:52 utc | 28
War in Ukraine is the most important project of the collective West, ever.
The western elites are not afraid of Russia at all.
The EU/USA poplulation would acept any sacrifice on thecroad to victory.
Posted by: simplex | Oct 1 2023 15:53 utc | 29
War in Ukraine is the most important project of the collective West, ever.
The western elites are not afraid of Russia at all.
The EU/USA poplulation would acept any sacrifice on thecroad to victory.
Posted by: simplex | Oct 1 2023 15:53 utc | 30
Is US willing to spend another $100 billion (probably much more now due to rise in manufacturing costs and the bill to fund Ukraine’s budget, hugely in deficit) just so Ukraine could be able to hold for a while longer the line?
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 15:19 utc | 15
Yes if it get the democrats elected again.
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Oct 1 2023 15:56 utc | 31
Is US willing to spend another $100 billion (probably much more now due to rise in manufacturing costs and the bill to fund Ukraine’s budget, hugely in deficit) just so Ukraine could be able to hold for a while longer the line?
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 15:19 utc | 15
Yes if it get the democrats elected again.
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Oct 1 2023 15:56 utc | 32
Interesting strike from the first day of SMO. Only now has been admitted.
All officers were killed and air defense was destroyed: Footage from the destroyed underground command post of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
▪️The object was hidden underground and, according to the head of the point, V. Sinyavsky, they “were confident that the bunker would withstand strikes and shelling.”
▪️But the Russian missile penetrated all the fortifications and destroyed the air defense installation, and also killed all the military.
▪️”You can see for yourself what deadly weapons the Russians use,” the story says.
The strike, according to Sinyavsky, was carried out at 5 a.m. on February 24, 2022. The Russians knew exactly where the command post was located, built during the USSR.
▪️According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the object was hit by 2 “Caliber”.
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/39298
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 15:58 utc | 33
Interesting strike from the first day of SMO. Only now has been admitted.
All officers were killed and air defense was destroyed: Footage from the destroyed underground command post of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
▪️The object was hidden underground and, according to the head of the point, V. Sinyavsky, they “were confident that the bunker would withstand strikes and shelling.”
▪️But the Russian missile penetrated all the fortifications and destroyed the air defense installation, and also killed all the military.
▪️”You can see for yourself what deadly weapons the Russians use,” the story says.
The strike, according to Sinyavsky, was carried out at 5 a.m. on February 24, 2022. The Russians knew exactly where the command post was located, built during the USSR.
▪️According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the object was hit by 2 “Caliber”.
https://t.me/NovichokRossiya/39298
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 15:58 utc | 34
Odessa @ 6
If you google it I think you will find that Odessa is crisscrossed by a huge network of tunnels and catacombs. I suspect that house to house fighting in Odessa is simply off the table because it would be Avostahl times ten in terms of fighting and the level of destruction would be of necessity immense. I hope the city votes to join the federation after the N404TO armies collapse.
Posted by: countrumford | Oct 1 2023 15:58 utc | 35
Odessa @ 6
If you google it I think you will find that Odessa is crisscrossed by a huge network of tunnels and catacombs. I suspect that house to house fighting in Odessa is simply off the table because it would be Avostahl times ten in terms of fighting and the level of destruction would be of necessity immense. I hope the city votes to join the federation after the N404TO armies collapse.
Posted by: countrumford | Oct 1 2023 15:58 utc | 36
Russia taking Odessa, one way or another, is an absolute necessity for security reasons..Russia could starve them out if necessary, but as Ukrainian forces continue to surrender, it will fall in due time…
Posted by: pyrrhus | Oct 1 2023 16:13 utc | 37
Russia taking Odessa, one way or another, is an absolute necessity for security reasons..Russia could starve them out if necessary, but as Ukrainian forces continue to surrender, it will fall in due time…
Posted by: pyrrhus | Oct 1 2023 16:13 utc | 38
unimperator @ 15
I guess the real question is: US dished out $100 billion in a single year
It is way more than that, same shit about every war in my lifetime, laughable underestimates. In 2008 not particularly radical economist Joe Stiglitz calculated $3 trillion for the Afghan war, he need to regularly revise his estimate year after year from when he first hazarded it in 2005 as he developed a better understanding of the true scale of it all, “even that, Stiglitz says now, was deliberately conservative: We didn’t want to sound outlandish.”
That 3$ trillion (which does include future veteran expenses) is for the USA alone and the war went on for an other 14 years!
The Ukraine war is many orders of magnitude bigger than Afghanistan – and escalating, i.e. not linear expenses.
Here’s an article from 2008 when the media and the abysmal Guardian were less abysmal:
The true cost of war →
Culture – Tell Me Where You Get It/A> →
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 1 2023 16:15 utc | 39
unimperator @ 15
I guess the real question is: US dished out $100 billion in a single year
It is way more than that, same shit about every war in my lifetime, laughable underestimates. In 2008 not particularly radical economist Joe Stiglitz calculated $3 trillion for the Afghan war, he need to regularly revise his estimate year after year from when he first hazarded it in 2005 as he developed a better understanding of the true scale of it all, “even that, Stiglitz says now, was deliberately conservative: We didn’t want to sound outlandish.”
That 3$ trillion (which does include future veteran expenses) is for the USA alone and the war went on for an other 14 years!
The Ukraine war is many orders of magnitude bigger than Afghanistan – and escalating, i.e. not linear expenses.
Here’s an article from 2008 when the media and the abysmal Guardian were less abysmal:
The true cost of war →
Culture – Tell Me Where You Get It/A> →
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 1 2023 16:15 utc | 40
unimperator@20…..but that never happened, all internet fakery and hoax, just ask Ron Unz …..
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 1 2023 16:20 utc | 41
unimperator@20…..but that never happened, all internet fakery and hoax, just ask Ron Unz …..
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 1 2023 16:20 utc | 42
Posted by: countrumford | Oct 1 2023 15:58 utc | 21
“it would be Avostahl time 10”
Is there an Azov regiment and NATO base in Odessa? I guess it is quite possible
Posted by: Tim | Oct 1 2023 16:20 utc | 43
Posted by: countrumford | Oct 1 2023 15:58 utc | 21
“it would be Avostahl time 10”
Is there an Azov regiment and NATO base in Odessa? I guess it is quite possible
Posted by: Tim | Oct 1 2023 16:20 utc | 44
Zelenskyy leaving office to live in some quiet safe haven solves nothing, but it would allow the MIC to more credibly establish a reset for Ukraine. Two periods of dating, BZ and AZ, Before Zelenskyy and After Zelenskyy.
All the billions in aid that were siphoned off? “That happened in the BZ period, is well understood, was unavoidable, and is ‘old news’.”
The disastrous strategy with Bakhmut, and with the much ballyhooed spring-summer-fall offensive? “That happened in the BZ period, is well understood, was due to Zelenskyy failing to heed advice, and is ‘old news’.”
“So now, in this AZ era, let’s look at the situation with fresh eyes, and consider what Ukraine’s new leadership needs to thwart Putin’s ambitions.”
There wouldn’t be an emphasis on winning the war/expelling Russia, but on “keeping Russia from achieving its secret goal of moving on from crushing Ukraine, to dominating Europe, and thus enabling its partner China to dominate all of the Pacific west of California, and to move in on South America”.
The MIC might even hedge its bets, and arrange for Zelenskyy’s replacement to say something positive about Trump, and have Trump reciprocate.
Trump, like Nixon in 1968, could run on having a secret plan to ending a bloody war, and disentangling America from its involvement in it. Hopefully with enormously more success, if that did become the case.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 1 2023 16:29 utc | 45
Zelenskyy leaving office to live in some quiet safe haven solves nothing, but it would allow the MIC to more credibly establish a reset for Ukraine. Two periods of dating, BZ and AZ, Before Zelenskyy and After Zelenskyy.
All the billions in aid that were siphoned off? “That happened in the BZ period, is well understood, was unavoidable, and is ‘old news’.”
The disastrous strategy with Bakhmut, and with the much ballyhooed spring-summer-fall offensive? “That happened in the BZ period, is well understood, was due to Zelenskyy failing to heed advice, and is ‘old news’.”
“So now, in this AZ era, let’s look at the situation with fresh eyes, and consider what Ukraine’s new leadership needs to thwart Putin’s ambitions.”
There wouldn’t be an emphasis on winning the war/expelling Russia, but on “keeping Russia from achieving its secret goal of moving on from crushing Ukraine, to dominating Europe, and thus enabling its partner China to dominate all of the Pacific west of California, and to move in on South America”.
The MIC might even hedge its bets, and arrange for Zelenskyy’s replacement to say something positive about Trump, and have Trump reciprocate.
Trump, like Nixon in 1968, could run on having a secret plan to ending a bloody war, and disentangling America from its involvement in it. Hopefully with enormously more success, if that did become the case.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 1 2023 16:29 utc | 46
The EU/USA poplulation would acept any sacrifice on thecroad to victory.
Posted by: simplex | Oct 1 2023 15:53 utc | 18
You mean the governments?
Posted by: 600w | Oct 1 2023 16:36 utc | 47
The EU/USA poplulation would acept any sacrifice on thecroad to victory.
Posted by: simplex | Oct 1 2023 15:53 utc | 18
You mean the governments?
Posted by: 600w | Oct 1 2023 16:36 utc | 48
unimperator @ 20
The strike, according to Sinyavsky, was carried out at 5 a.m.
Damn those army fuckers get up early, I ain’t joining no army. As I’m posting songs here’s another:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71smG5d29to
That bunker is very unimpressive, not what I was imagining, not only is it just a couple of feet underground but it appears made of prefab concrete slabs, not poured reinforced concrete. I also wonder what’s up, releasing this does not fit the usual NAFO or UKR propaganda MO.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 1 2023 16:40 utc | 49
unimperator @ 20
The strike, according to Sinyavsky, was carried out at 5 a.m.
Damn those army fuckers get up early, I ain’t joining no army. As I’m posting songs here’s another:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71smG5d29to
That bunker is very unimpressive, not what I was imagining, not only is it just a couple of feet underground but it appears made of prefab concrete slabs, not poured reinforced concrete. I also wonder what’s up, releasing this does not fit the usual NAFO or UKR propaganda MO.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 1 2023 16:40 utc | 50
Re Odessa, Russia could simply hold its ports closed indefinitely, and later use limited port access as a “carrot” in ongoing negotiations regarding the future of Ukraine. Without its port, is Odessa even really a viable city?
Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 1 2023 17:02 utc | 51
Re Odessa, Russia could simply hold its ports closed indefinitely, and later use limited port access as a “carrot” in ongoing negotiations regarding the future of Ukraine. Without its port, is Odessa even really a viable city?
Posted by: Boris Badenov | Oct 1 2023 17:02 utc | 52
“The EU/USA poplulation would acept any sacrifice on thecroad to victory.
Posted by: simplex | Oct 1 2023 15:53 utc | 18”
There is no road to victory for the West. Just an intersection:
– defeat
– nuclear apocalypse
Posted by: Comandante | Oct 1 2023 17:11 utc | 53
“The EU/USA poplulation would acept any sacrifice on thecroad to victory.
Posted by: simplex | Oct 1 2023 15:53 utc | 18”
There is no road to victory for the West. Just an intersection:
– defeat
– nuclear apocalypse
Posted by: Comandante | Oct 1 2023 17:11 utc | 54
Your daily reminder that money is not real, and so, monetary figures about anything in the West are a delusion.
10 million USD or 10 billion USD. None of it exists.
Only the perception exists, and it is not a perception that benefits most people, so why perpetuate it?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 1 2023 17:13 utc | 55
Your daily reminder that money is not real, and so, monetary figures about anything in the West are a delusion.
10 million USD or 10 billion USD. None of it exists.
Only the perception exists, and it is not a perception that benefits most people, so why perpetuate it?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 1 2023 17:13 utc | 56
The most critical western support for Ukraine is basic bugetary support for the government. If the funds stop flowing or are significantly reduced the government in Kiev will collapse. Military support is secondary except as military progress makes obtaining western funds a little easier. While Brussels and Washington are still on board with this, political strife from beneath is making the level of funding necessary to continue more problematic. With grain exports shut down and energy sales to the EU no longer possible, along with the Slovakian election result and resistence from Hungary and now Poland, a funding crisis may well develop this winter. Much depends on how successful Biden is in forcing through additional funding bills, which is also becoming more politically difficult.
Regarding Odessa, I don’t believe it will be captured in a military campaign the way Mariupol was. Too big and very difficult to attack, plus the level of destruction necessary would be unacceptable for Russia. Same with Kiev. A political capture is possible but would require Russian capture of signigicant territory in the east forcing a capitulation by Kiev essentially leading to a dissolution of the Ukrainian state, in my opinion.
What happens this winter on all fronts, both military and economic, will be critical.
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 1 2023 17:29 utc | 57
The most critical western support for Ukraine is basic bugetary support for the government. If the funds stop flowing or are significantly reduced the government in Kiev will collapse. Military support is secondary except as military progress makes obtaining western funds a little easier. While Brussels and Washington are still on board with this, political strife from beneath is making the level of funding necessary to continue more problematic. With grain exports shut down and energy sales to the EU no longer possible, along with the Slovakian election result and resistence from Hungary and now Poland, a funding crisis may well develop this winter. Much depends on how successful Biden is in forcing through additional funding bills, which is also becoming more politically difficult.
Regarding Odessa, I don’t believe it will be captured in a military campaign the way Mariupol was. Too big and very difficult to attack, plus the level of destruction necessary would be unacceptable for Russia. Same with Kiev. A political capture is possible but would require Russian capture of signigicant territory in the east forcing a capitulation by Kiev essentially leading to a dissolution of the Ukrainian state, in my opinion.
What happens this winter on all fronts, both military and economic, will be critical.
Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 1 2023 17:29 utc | 58
Posted by: AI | Oct 1 2023 17:11 utc | 29
«The true military cost of the war in Ukraine at the moment exceeds 1.5 trillion USD and the reconstruction more than 5 trillion USD.»
Those are fantasy numbers, perhaps estimated using New York City subway contractor pricing. Ukraine is much cheaper, it is not even worth $5 trillion to rebuild it from scratch, or to purchase it as it was before 2014, never mind before 2022.
The military cost is also fantasy, perhaps estimated at the price of an USA gold-plated overseas expeditionary force, ukrainian soldiers are much cheaper and less well equipped and much less supplied. As several big USA politicians have said using ukrainian soldiers to grind down the RF military is a very cheap bargain.
Posted by: Blissex | Oct 1 2023 17:30 utc | 59
Posted by: AI | Oct 1 2023 17:11 utc | 29
«The true military cost of the war in Ukraine at the moment exceeds 1.5 trillion USD and the reconstruction more than 5 trillion USD.»
Those are fantasy numbers, perhaps estimated using New York City subway contractor pricing. Ukraine is much cheaper, it is not even worth $5 trillion to rebuild it from scratch, or to purchase it as it was before 2014, never mind before 2022.
The military cost is also fantasy, perhaps estimated at the price of an USA gold-plated overseas expeditionary force, ukrainian soldiers are much cheaper and less well equipped and much less supplied. As several big USA politicians have said using ukrainian soldiers to grind down the RF military is a very cheap bargain.
Posted by: Blissex | Oct 1 2023 17:30 utc | 60
Russia supposedly has tens of billions of dollars worth of Indian rupees stuck in its bank account in India from oil sales priced in rupees because Russia is not allowed to convert the rupees into dollars or euros.
Posted by: eritrea | Oct 1 2023 14:18 utc | 4
It appears to be a bit of a Problem. But consider another far, far bigger problem. You are a Western Bank, Insurance Company, Hedge Fund or a Foreign Government and you have been buying U.S. Government Debt by way of long term Treasuries. As interest rates have risen over the last 2 years, the face value of your U.S. Debt has dropped 20 to 40%.
Ergo, the private buying Pool is shrinking and the only solution is increasing Interest rates offered by the U.S. (further shrinking the value of old U.S. Debt/Treasuries) or whispering into the ear of the BUYER OF LAST RESORT, the U.S. Federal Reserve to print $ Trillions of new counterfeit money to purchase U.S. Government Debt.
Far better to be Russia holding Indian rupees. It is in India’s imperative interest to make their rupees function in trade.
The U.S. mental midgets have sanctioned their own currency, the Exorbitant Privilege, the cheater’s card, at the trading game.
Posted by: kupkee | Oct 1 2023 17:35 utc | 61
Russia supposedly has tens of billions of dollars worth of Indian rupees stuck in its bank account in India from oil sales priced in rupees because Russia is not allowed to convert the rupees into dollars or euros.
Posted by: eritrea | Oct 1 2023 14:18 utc | 4
It appears to be a bit of a Problem. But consider another far, far bigger problem. You are a Western Bank, Insurance Company, Hedge Fund or a Foreign Government and you have been buying U.S. Government Debt by way of long term Treasuries. As interest rates have risen over the last 2 years, the face value of your U.S. Debt has dropped 20 to 40%.
Ergo, the private buying Pool is shrinking and the only solution is increasing Interest rates offered by the U.S. (further shrinking the value of old U.S. Debt/Treasuries) or whispering into the ear of the BUYER OF LAST RESORT, the U.S. Federal Reserve to print $ Trillions of new counterfeit money to purchase U.S. Government Debt.
Far better to be Russia holding Indian rupees. It is in India’s imperative interest to make their rupees function in trade.
The U.S. mental midgets have sanctioned their own currency, the Exorbitant Privilege, the cheater’s card, at the trading game.
Posted by: kupkee | Oct 1 2023 17:35 utc | 62
Re. Odessa. If you think about it, Odessa is a peripheral region in terms of supplying it. Most of the stuff comes through Poland and Lwow, and it has to travel all the way south to Odessa.
If the ports on the Black Sea coast and Danube are rendered unusable and if/when the front moves to central Ukraine past Krivoy Rog and bypasses Nikolaev and Odessa from the north, it’s possible or likely that Odessa will be abandoned as Kiev/Nato withdraws toward Lwow. Maybe they leave a skeleton crew holding it but who knows, I don’t think fighting for Odessa will be an actual scenario, the decisive battles will happen elsewhere. Also central Ukraine is wide and plain terrain, it won’t really be a slugfest like in Zaporozhye or Donbass but more fluid movements, both offensive and retreat.
So far territory isn’t even important, we are at the point where Kiev is mobilizing women and UK/Sunak flashed the idea of sending troops. They are testing the waters and public reaction for an idea of buffer zone in western Ukraine. Or they think they could create some sort of buffer zone.
But obviously Odessa will sooner or later change hands, and it will probably be without a fight due to its peripheral location.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 17:39 utc | 63
Re. Odessa. If you think about it, Odessa is a peripheral region in terms of supplying it. Most of the stuff comes through Poland and Lwow, and it has to travel all the way south to Odessa.
If the ports on the Black Sea coast and Danube are rendered unusable and if/when the front moves to central Ukraine past Krivoy Rog and bypasses Nikolaev and Odessa from the north, it’s possible or likely that Odessa will be abandoned as Kiev/Nato withdraws toward Lwow. Maybe they leave a skeleton crew holding it but who knows, I don’t think fighting for Odessa will be an actual scenario, the decisive battles will happen elsewhere. Also central Ukraine is wide and plain terrain, it won’t really be a slugfest like in Zaporozhye or Donbass but more fluid movements, both offensive and retreat.
So far territory isn’t even important, we are at the point where Kiev is mobilizing women and UK/Sunak flashed the idea of sending troops. They are testing the waters and public reaction for an idea of buffer zone in western Ukraine. Or they think they could create some sort of buffer zone.
But obviously Odessa will sooner or later change hands, and it will probably be without a fight due to its peripheral location.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 17:39 utc | 64
Just have to make a note. Last night local public tv channel ran “The Russians are Coming”. Good for them. Playing with human nature — laughing at everyone…. such a good entertainment…. and no bad guys on display, but dangerous situation underneath. The bad guys were in the governments.
for the last half century or more, still the Russians are coming.
Posted by: medo | Oct 1 2023 17:41 utc | 65
Just have to make a note. Last night local public tv channel ran “The Russians are Coming”. Good for them. Playing with human nature — laughing at everyone…. such a good entertainment…. and no bad guys on display, but dangerous situation underneath. The bad guys were in the governments.
for the last half century or more, still the Russians are coming.
Posted by: medo | Oct 1 2023 17:41 utc | 66
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 1 2023 16:40 utc | 27
Might signal that the AFU are beginning to tell the truth about the SMO (they never had a chance) so as to put pressure on Zelensky to either negotiate or flee. By revealing the reality, Russia crippled Ukraines AD network, or more accurately its ability to operate as a unified system, from day one they could be mounting an end run around NATO’s demands to continue the conflict. I predict more ‘revelations’ that will further reveal the true cost of the conflict, perhaps leaked casualty figures?
I think Zelensky’s comments last week, about a perpetual offensive lasting through the winter, has focused minds in the Army, who now realise they either remove him, or watch their army be ground up pointlessly. This release may point to the beginnings of a campaign to justify their mutiny and gain popular support for their forthcoming actions. The Biden administration’s acceptance of the interim CR, without the usual kickbacks, sorry financial aid, for Ukraine is anther signal to the Ukrainian General Staff that the West is eying the tow release handle, and they’ll be on their own.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 1 2023 17:49 utc | 67
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 1 2023 16:40 utc | 27
Might signal that the AFU are beginning to tell the truth about the SMO (they never had a chance) so as to put pressure on Zelensky to either negotiate or flee. By revealing the reality, Russia crippled Ukraines AD network, or more accurately its ability to operate as a unified system, from day one they could be mounting an end run around NATO’s demands to continue the conflict. I predict more ‘revelations’ that will further reveal the true cost of the conflict, perhaps leaked casualty figures?
I think Zelensky’s comments last week, about a perpetual offensive lasting through the winter, has focused minds in the Army, who now realise they either remove him, or watch their army be ground up pointlessly. This release may point to the beginnings of a campaign to justify their mutiny and gain popular support for their forthcoming actions. The Biden administration’s acceptance of the interim CR, without the usual kickbacks, sorry financial aid, for Ukraine is anther signal to the Ukrainian General Staff that the West is eying the tow release handle, and they’ll be on their own.
Posted by: Milites | Oct 1 2023 17:49 utc | 68
Western public opposition to the Ukrainian war seems to finally be reaching the point where Western government officials are willing to concede defeat, or to otherwise earnestly seek an “off-ramp” to the relentless Western escalation regarding Ukrainian military support. The recent election in Slovokia appears to show that the “cracks in the dam” are widening with regard to public opposition. The nazi war criminal scandal in the Canadian Parliament shows little sign of subsiding.
There is clearly no desire on the part of the NATO allied countries to escalate this conflict into nuclear world war, as that is the realm of the criminally insane neocon warmongers who seem to have wrested control of the foreign policy of the USA and their obedient lapdogs in the European Union.
Posted by: AJ | Oct 1 2023 18:08 utc | 69
Western public opposition to the Ukrainian war seems to finally be reaching the point where Western government officials are willing to concede defeat, or to otherwise earnestly seek an “off-ramp” to the relentless Western escalation regarding Ukrainian military support. The recent election in Slovokia appears to show that the “cracks in the dam” are widening with regard to public opposition. The nazi war criminal scandal in the Canadian Parliament shows little sign of subsiding.
There is clearly no desire on the part of the NATO allied countries to escalate this conflict into nuclear world war, as that is the realm of the criminally insane neocon warmongers who seem to have wrested control of the foreign policy of the USA and their obedient lapdogs in the European Union.
Posted by: AJ | Oct 1 2023 18:08 utc | 70
@ 5jumpchump | Oct 1 2023 13:54 utc | 1
My opinion, as I have expressed here before, is that Russia wants Odessa, but (1) they want it as undamaged as possible, and (2) they want it to serve a purpose.
To elaborate on (2), I believe a condition Russia will demand for peace is a free vote in each of the 1922 oblasts whether to be independent, stay with Kiev, or join Russia. I think that Russia is confident that such votes will have Odessa voting to join and this will both preserve the city and further justify the SMO.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Oct 1 2023 18:18 utc | 71
@ 5jumpchump | Oct 1 2023 13:54 utc | 1
My opinion, as I have expressed here before, is that Russia wants Odessa, but (1) they want it as undamaged as possible, and (2) they want it to serve a purpose.
To elaborate on (2), I believe a condition Russia will demand for peace is a free vote in each of the 1922 oblasts whether to be independent, stay with Kiev, or join Russia. I think that Russia is confident that such votes will have Odessa voting to join and this will both preserve the city and further justify the SMO.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Oct 1 2023 18:18 utc | 72
Recently some unusual messaging has come out of the Ukraine high command. I assume they either got a bad batch? An Offer We Can’t Refuse?
Posted by: kana | Oct 1 2023 18:23 utc | 73
Recently some unusual messaging has come out of the Ukraine high command. I assume they either got a bad batch? An Offer We Can’t Refuse?
Posted by: kana | Oct 1 2023 18:23 utc | 74
@ Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 1 2023 14:46 utc | 10
Neither of your links purporting to provide a statement from the Russian MoD are official.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Oct 1 2023 18:26 utc | 75
@ Robert Hamilton Camp | Oct 1 2023 14:46 utc | 10
Neither of your links purporting to provide a statement from the Russian MoD are official.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Oct 1 2023 18:26 utc | 76
Hi, some MoAs above want to have more focus on “Odessa” and the Rf capabilties to “get” that Odessa areas.
Don’t think that this can be a major goal of RF-MIL on attacking thereto, because still today, Odessa regions are far away of any operational planning the RF-commanders, may be some ammo-depots strikes doing and succesfully performed week-by-week, as it’s necessary to give “signal” to the West, how further “real” strikes may be look like.
So, regarding the daily “successful” counter offensive OPs by the UAF, one should consider of what’s ongoing on the MSM-public spreading “news” – next weeks – when UAF has to be completely defeated/surrendered on its “West-front”.
So wait, what Nuland’s Fan Club will report and to claim – up to the latest available UKR-Civilian-Soldiers fighters at RF-artillery front-lines.
Wait .. Blinken will visit once more to Kiew ..
Posted by: spare-truth | Oct 1 2023 18:30 utc | 77
Hi, some MoAs above want to have more focus on “Odessa” and the Rf capabilties to “get” that Odessa areas.
Don’t think that this can be a major goal of RF-MIL on attacking thereto, because still today, Odessa regions are far away of any operational planning the RF-commanders, may be some ammo-depots strikes doing and succesfully performed week-by-week, as it’s necessary to give “signal” to the West, how further “real” strikes may be look like.
So, regarding the daily “successful” counter offensive OPs by the UAF, one should consider of what’s ongoing on the MSM-public spreading “news” – next weeks – when UAF has to be completely defeated/surrendered on its “West-front”.
So wait, what Nuland’s Fan Club will report and to claim – up to the latest available UKR-Civilian-Soldiers fighters at RF-artillery front-lines.
Wait .. Blinken will visit once more to Kiew ..
Posted by: spare-truth | Oct 1 2023 18:30 utc | 78
@39 A vote not favorable for the west won’t be recognized by the west.
Posted by: Mario | Oct 1 2023 18:32 utc | 79
@39 A vote not favorable for the west won’t be recognized by the west.
Posted by: Mario | Oct 1 2023 18:32 utc | 80
This may be off-topic—but I find it startlingly relevant as historical background: A piece in the London Review of Books on the Franco-Prussian War and its after-effects for European history. That includes the fate of Crimea and arrangements concerning Russia’s access to the Black Sea and.
The article is here:
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v45/n18/christopher-clark/predicamental
and currently is not behind a paywall as far as I can see (after you get through the “manage cookies” business).
The most interesting section in terms of relevance to the Ukraine situ and that of Europe in general starts with the sentence “The geopolitical impact of the Prussian-German victory was profound. . . . ”
The Franco-Prussian War was actually a pivotal moment in European history, yet I have never heard it discussed as background to current issues surrounding the Black Sea, and other topics.
Posted by: Jane | Oct 1 2023 18:35 utc | 81
This may be off-topic—but I find it startlingly relevant as historical background: A piece in the London Review of Books on the Franco-Prussian War and its after-effects for European history. That includes the fate of Crimea and arrangements concerning Russia’s access to the Black Sea and.
The article is here:
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v45/n18/christopher-clark/predicamental
and currently is not behind a paywall as far as I can see (after you get through the “manage cookies” business).
The most interesting section in terms of relevance to the Ukraine situ and that of Europe in general starts with the sentence “The geopolitical impact of the Prussian-German victory was profound. . . . ”
The Franco-Prussian War was actually a pivotal moment in European history, yet I have never heard it discussed as background to current issues surrounding the Black Sea, and other topics.
Posted by: Jane | Oct 1 2023 18:35 utc | 82
@ simplex | Oct 1 2023 15:53 utc | 18
Nice tru, but your feet are much too small to fill Zanon’s shoes.
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 1 2023 18:36 utc | 83
@ simplex | Oct 1 2023 15:53 utc | 18
Nice tru, but your feet are much too small to fill Zanon’s shoes.
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 1 2023 18:36 utc | 84
@43
Acceptance of the process will be a condition of peace.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Oct 1 2023 18:48 utc | 85
@43
Acceptance of the process will be a condition of peace.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Oct 1 2023 18:48 utc | 86
Slovakia new PM Fico wants no more to do with Ukraine war. Thatsa big crack in NATO. Hungary next door congratulates him while NATO fumes they couldn’t diddle the election enough
Posted by: Hankster | Oct 1 2023 18:54 utc | 87
Slovakia new PM Fico wants no more to do with Ukraine war. Thatsa big crack in NATO. Hungary next door congratulates him while NATO fumes they couldn’t diddle the election enough
Posted by: Hankster | Oct 1 2023 18:54 utc | 88
by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 17:39 utc | 35
re Odesa
..without a fight due to its peripheral location.
Odesa Raion is very important and far from being peripheral. All along Romanian border there is huge NATO presence, few crucial airports (Tulcea and a few surrounding airfields being upgraded) and it was the NATO’s nightmare region in 70s and 80s fearing the first breakthrough by Soviets just there – a famous Focsani Gap/Gate.
Here is by no other than Ben Hodges amongst the other “experts” article, but some excerpts to make it clear.
Key Terrain in NATO’s Southeastern Region
Certainty of mobility is the twin of speedy mobility. These twin certainties were tested to the limit in this scenario focused on southeastern Europe and the Black Sea Region. To enhance the cross-border transit of military forces, NATO needs to intensify its efforts to standardize rules/requirements among members and non-member EU nations. A harmonizing body needs to be established to gather data for coherent information sharing with NATO, EU, the private sector, and all stakeholders in effective military mobility, particularly in regions where access is severely constrained due to outdated road and rail networks. In this scenario, an estimated 20 brigades would be required to defeat a Russian attack and would require 20 million liters of diesel fuel and more than 12,000 tons of ammunition to be moved to fight the initial battle. Critically, this scenario highlighted the need for extensive combat support service (CSS) enablers, such as transport maintenance and bridging equipment. The overall assessment was that any movement in strength would take a very long time and because of that any and all military mobility should be carefully planned in advance.
Amongst the other nonsense there about combined mobility etc. fear is reeking from this article.
Also since the article is from 2021, and seeing so far how successful NATO is/was in maintaining minimum requirements for Ukraine just to stay barely alive, I do not see them as being able to sustain any RF posture over there.
If RF manages to reach and cut in half Southern Odesa Raion and show up on Romanian border – NATO will collapse in surrender.
Odesa gives up itself, no need to fight some Chechen/Vagner urban warfare style there.
Otherwise Odesa the city, yes, only from the North, as a direct “Normandy” landing will not be doable.
So, Odesa is not so important, as everything else below it being crucial for the Black Sea dominance and neutering NATO.
Posted by: whirlX | Oct 1 2023 18:54 utc | 89
by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 17:39 utc | 35
re Odesa
..without a fight due to its peripheral location.
Odesa Raion is very important and far from being peripheral. All along Romanian border there is huge NATO presence, few crucial airports (Tulcea and a few surrounding airfields being upgraded) and it was the NATO’s nightmare region in 70s and 80s fearing the first breakthrough by Soviets just there – a famous Focsani Gap/Gate.
Here is by no other than Ben Hodges amongst the other “experts” article, but some excerpts to make it clear.
Key Terrain in NATO’s Southeastern Region
Certainty of mobility is the twin of speedy mobility. These twin certainties were tested to the limit in this scenario focused on southeastern Europe and the Black Sea Region. To enhance the cross-border transit of military forces, NATO needs to intensify its efforts to standardize rules/requirements among members and non-member EU nations. A harmonizing body needs to be established to gather data for coherent information sharing with NATO, EU, the private sector, and all stakeholders in effective military mobility, particularly in regions where access is severely constrained due to outdated road and rail networks. In this scenario, an estimated 20 brigades would be required to defeat a Russian attack and would require 20 million liters of diesel fuel and more than 12,000 tons of ammunition to be moved to fight the initial battle. Critically, this scenario highlighted the need for extensive combat support service (CSS) enablers, such as transport maintenance and bridging equipment. The overall assessment was that any movement in strength would take a very long time and because of that any and all military mobility should be carefully planned in advance.
Amongst the other nonsense there about combined mobility etc. fear is reeking from this article.
Also since the article is from 2021, and seeing so far how successful NATO is/was in maintaining minimum requirements for Ukraine just to stay barely alive, I do not see them as being able to sustain any RF posture over there.
If RF manages to reach and cut in half Southern Odesa Raion and show up on Romanian border – NATO will collapse in surrender.
Odesa gives up itself, no need to fight some Chechen/Vagner urban warfare style there.
Otherwise Odesa the city, yes, only from the North, as a direct “Normandy” landing will not be doable.
So, Odesa is not so important, as everything else below it being crucial for the Black Sea dominance and neutering NATO.
Posted by: whirlX | Oct 1 2023 18:54 utc | 90
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 1 2023 14:10 utc | 2
From your awfulavalanche link, a comment I think Paco would appreciate.
The Thick Red Duke says:
October 1, 2023 at 14:13
I must admit that I kinda miss Prigozhin. Watching Wagner smash the Nazis and see the front lines move forward is the highlight of this war until now. All while Prigo showing up at the battle front and telling the media not to exaggerate the advances.
I have no excuses for what he turned out to be and what he did. But he became a real life hero Made In Russia. Not a polished Western slimeball but a true Russki who made his fans dream and his opponents have nightmares. Just what Russia needs.
It won’t be easy for Mr. Troshev to top that.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 1 2023 19:03 utc | 91
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 1 2023 14:10 utc | 2
From your awfulavalanche link, a comment I think Paco would appreciate.
The Thick Red Duke says:
October 1, 2023 at 14:13
I must admit that I kinda miss Prigozhin. Watching Wagner smash the Nazis and see the front lines move forward is the highlight of this war until now. All while Prigo showing up at the battle front and telling the media not to exaggerate the advances.
I have no excuses for what he turned out to be and what he did. But he became a real life hero Made In Russia. Not a polished Western slimeball but a true Russki who made his fans dream and his opponents have nightmares. Just what Russia needs.
It won’t be easy for Mr. Troshev to top that.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 1 2023 19:03 utc | 92
Hankster @ 47
Slovakia new PM… while NATO fumes they couldn’t diddle the election enough
When diddling fails expect guns and money to pour in.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 1 2023 19:12 utc | 93
Hankster @ 47
Slovakia new PM… while NATO fumes they couldn’t diddle the election enough
When diddling fails expect guns and money to pour in.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 1 2023 19:12 utc | 94
Re: Odessa
When the NATO money runs out, then Odessa et.al. will experience peaceful regime change.
This war gonna‘ last long time.
Posted by: Exile | Oct 1 2023 19:24 utc | 95
Re: Odessa
When the NATO money runs out, then Odessa et.al. will experience peaceful regime change.
This war gonna‘ last long time.
Posted by: Exile | Oct 1 2023 19:24 utc | 96
As far as I understand Dima, the west is only going to escalate. Now UK is going to deliver some aircraft to Poland. This is essential for western elites and their nations who firmly support this war. 500 years of colonial dominance must be preserved. That is something that even so called “common people” like so much. That feeling of superiority.
Posted by: simplex | Oct 1 2023 19:43 utc | 97
As far as I understand Dima, the west is only going to escalate. Now UK is going to deliver some aircraft to Poland. This is essential for western elites and their nations who firmly support this war. 500 years of colonial dominance must be preserved. That is something that even so called “common people” like so much. That feeling of superiority.
Posted by: simplex | Oct 1 2023 19:43 utc | 98
Whatever happened to the foreign legion?
Several months ago, CNN, Zelensky, et al, were a buzz about Americans, Canadians, British, etc. volunteering to fight in Ukraine. What happened to them? CNN used to interview these volunteers and they suddenly stopped.
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Oct 1 2023 15:52 utc | 16
This was sort of discussed a bit on the previous thread, but my personal and very uninformed take is that insofar as they existed at all and weren’t just part of a major propaganda drive, they probably left or were killed. There is no point in fighting overseas for money in a lost cause if you are going to die within a month or two anyway.
But this is just speculation on my part–I have absolutely nothing to confirm or refute the idea.
Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Oct 1 2023 19:50 utc | 99
Whatever happened to the foreign legion?
Several months ago, CNN, Zelensky, et al, were a buzz about Americans, Canadians, British, etc. volunteering to fight in Ukraine. What happened to them? CNN used to interview these volunteers and they suddenly stopped.
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Oct 1 2023 15:52 utc | 16
This was sort of discussed a bit on the previous thread, but my personal and very uninformed take is that insofar as they existed at all and weren’t just part of a major propaganda drive, they probably left or were killed. There is no point in fighting overseas for money in a lost cause if you are going to die within a month or two anyway.
But this is just speculation on my part–I have absolutely nothing to confirm or refute the idea.
Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Oct 1 2023 19:50 utc | 100