Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 04, 2023

Ukraine - Fatigue Sets In

The increasing fracture of support for Ukraine not only destroyed House Speaker Kevin McCarthy but is also threatening the structures of the EU and NATO.

The Russian government had predicted that this process would happen:

The Kremlin said on Monday it believed a decision by U.S. Congress to pass a stopgap funding bill that omitted aid for Ukraine was a temporary setback for Kyiv, but forecast war fatigue in the West would grow and increasingly split opinion.
...
Asked about the U.S. development, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he thought the setback for Ukraine was "a temporary phenomenon" and that Washington would clearly continue what he called its direct involvement in the conflict.

But Peskov, speaking after the party of Robert Fico won a weekend election in Slovakia pledging to end military aid to Ukraine, said that Moscow had long forecast that the West would grow increasingly weary of supporting Ukraine.

"Obviously, this (the U.S. setback) is a temporary phenomenon. America will continue its involvement in this conflict, in fact direct involvement," said Peskov.

"But we have repeatedly said before that according to our forecasts fatigue from this conflict, fatigue from the completely absurd sponsorship of the Kyiv regime, will grow in various countries, including the United States.

"And this fatigue will lead to the fragmentation of the political establishment and the growth of contradictions."

And so it plays out:

In America, Republican voters are growing increasingly pessimistic about continuing U.S. support for Ukraine, while Democratic support has ebbed but remained relatively strong, according to recent polls.

In Europe, war fatigue and domestic strain is playing out at the polls, with voters in some countries choosing leaders that are increasingly turning away from Kyiv.

Letting the war continue until the West gives up was and is obviously part of Russia's political strategy. A short war and a Ukrainian capitulation to Russia's demand for it to stay out of NATO would surely have been better. But the Biden administration wanted to 'weaken Russia' and thereby a prolonged war. It had thought that Russia could not sustain a long fight.

But only people who did not know Russia or were misinformed about its resources would have believed such nonsense. It was obvious to others that Russia has everything one needs to sustain as a nation: land, people, energy, food, minerals and an industry that is capable of making nearly everything it needs. The only way to weaken or even defeat Russia was on the battlefield. But none of the western wonder weapons was able to do make a decisive difference. Russia found counter measures to all of them.

The way out of the war requires U.S. negotiations with Russia. But the Biden administration as well as the current EU leadership are too deeply invested in Ukraine to launch serious talks. To find an end to the war will necessitate regime-change in Washington and Brussels.

The process has started. But it will still take some time. Unless the Ukrainian army suddenly collapses I do not expect any real change before the U.S. election or before a new administration has settled in.

---
Dear commentators, please stay on the topic. Otherwise I might have to ban you.

Posted by b on October 4, 2023 at 14:27 UTC | Permalink

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For the germans here:

Michael Lueders ueber Ukraine vs Russland, Moral & nationale Interessen - Jung & Naiv: Folge 660

Stupid questioning but Lueders is great.
2:53:10 h

Posted by: schkid | Oct 4 2023 14:42 utc | 1

Totally agree with everything b said, except that I think the Ukro-Nazis might just collapse in a "waterfall" event well before November, 2024...They seem to be really worried about rebellion in the military, and drafting kids and retirees isn't going to make things better...

Posted by: pyrrhus | Oct 4 2023 14:47 utc | 2

mass surrender by Ukraine forces would help. is it feasible, I don't know. I saw an article this morning about mass protest in Berlin over aid to Ukraine. i see cracks in the western edifice opening up across the board.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 4 2023 14:52 utc | 3

Russia is well able to find an end to this war regardless of regime-changes in whatever country or bloc. China may be an exception, but even that is not sure.
Regime changes in the West are more likely to become a consequence of the end of the SMO, not so much a trigger event. - To enter negotiations, which have been possible since the very beginning, just in the run-up of US elections has a smack of election interference and may lead to more Russia-gate reproaches by the losers, regardless of how unfounded they are. The best is IMO to ignore this all and to carry on.

Posted by: OttoE | Oct 4 2023 14:53 utc | 4

even if Biden loses, most republicans still support the war in Ukraine, or conversely shifting the war to one on China. and, goes without saying, almost all democratic politicians.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 4 2023 14:55 utc | 5

@ b who wrote
"
Unless the Ukrainian army suddenly collapses I do not expect any real change before the U.S. election or before a new administration has settled in.
"

I was wrong initially thinking the SMO would be short lived but can't believe this shit show will go on another year and more. I no longer think that the West is in control of the timing of global events and they are going to be forced to respond to events out of their control....AND timing

I certainly want the shit show to end as soon as possible and am seeing fellow Americans paying attention to the world spinning is ways they never did so before....not saying clearer, but more focus.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 4 2023 15:06 utc | 6

We can see that Russia is losing hope that even Trump will be able to change the direction of the conflict. He wouldnt be able to even if he wanted to. The formal concessions and acknowedgemetns required would be far beyond any 'Minsk-style' agreements. At this point it would require official recognition of the new areas and Crimea as Russia, plus formal acknowledgement that Ukraine would never join NATO and probably the EU as well. Not gonna happen, even under Trump. Not in his gift.

So we come back to to the now obvious point that this war will inevitably end on Russia's terms. Militarily the attempts to prevent them from remaining in Ukraine have failed, and these attempts cannot now be restarted with any degree of believability. The ball is therefore in Russias court. It appears we are gearing up to the end of the SMO in 2025, followed by a more ambitious move to settle the conflict once and for all by conquering Kiev and lands to the west.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Oct 4 2023 15:08 utc | 7

There's no fatigue at NATO headquarters.

US General Christopher Cavoli, the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO is not fatigued, reading his response to a probing question a few days ago. He's still in dreamland:

Q: Where would you like to see the alliance in terms of deterrence, collective defense, unity, in the next three to five years, as all of this is implemented as we move forward, where would you like to see the alliance?
A: It doesn’t matter where you are, as long as you are always in a position of an advantage. And our entire strategy is designed around obtaining and maintaining advantage in domain, in geography, and in readiness, and that’s where I want to see us, maintaining those advantages. . . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 4 2023 15:09 utc | 8


one thing, AFU continues fighing and is talking about a new offensive in the fall or spring...so nothing new, but today 4-oct-23 as I know - no TAURUS bc. no ATACMS are delivered and less money (as prognosis)! no stromshadow or scalp attacks in recents days...

so is it possible USA is talking with RU?

Posted by: gpc | Oct 4 2023 15:10 utc | 9

Biden wont lose because he wont run (the general election)

Hes a walking corpse. Please wake up.

He will most likely be ran on primary so noone else challenges current regime. Then for general he will be replaced for any puppet (newsom, gay dude, black woman, etc)

American democracy at its finest LOL

Posted by: Comandante | Oct 4 2023 15:11 utc | 10

Remember a cornered rat is at its most dangerous, z will try everything and anything to drag NATO into his war, even if it it means WWIII, he won't care; dirty bombs, bio weapons, false flags to name but a few.

Posted by: YosserHughes | Oct 4 2023 15:12 utc | 11

no TAURUS bc. no ATACMS are delivered and less money (as prognosis)! no stromshadow or scalp attacks in recents days...

so is it possible USA is talking with RU?

Posted by: gpc | Oct 4 2023 15:10 utc | 11

No, it suggests the next move is Russias.

Wait it out for something that I dont think wil ever happen - or end it in a couple of years time with a final assault on Kiev and the banderite west.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Oct 4 2023 15:14 utc | 12

b: A short war and a Ukrainian capitulation to Russia's demand for it to stay out of NATO would surely have been better.

---

I do not believe that a short war would be thorough enough to have a significant effect.

Utter humiliation is the only possible cure for the illness prevalent in the Western mind. And even that may not be sufficient.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 4 2023 15:19 utc | 13

@ Night Tripper 8 + 14

your statement about smo ending in 2025 is from shoigu, correct?
but few commentators are suggesting the russians will do a winter war, because:
it would be than the 3. winter without russian action, AFU dont need much and the west weaponary will fail in a middle-strong winter.
the russians are saving on ammunition, increase production capacity and
importing from n.korea and iran.

so I think shoigu lied straightforward ;)

Posted by: gpc | Oct 4 2023 15:20 utc | 14

@ Night Tripper 8 + 14
additionally - USA is talking with russia because they know russian will do "something" - a winter war - thats my argument, why no Taurus/ATACMS.

Posted by: gpc | Oct 4 2023 15:23 utc | 15

US actions have led to destruction of Germany's industrial base, which in turn has led to the destruction of the core of EU. It can also be predicted that the dismantlement of the subsidy transfer system within the EU will lead to the fracturing of the less wealthy fringe states within the EU.

This is how west's obsession with the Ukraine war has led to its own weakening directly. Of course, there are the other indirect effects of weakening of G7, UN, IPCC and other organizations controlled by the west, outside the west.

The US enforced armament program on EU/Nato states will certainly significantly exacerbate the situation in Europe. Already now, services are being dismantled to make way for arming programs. Yet the base to support such arming and wealth transfer to the US is simply not there.

We already have official Nato statements that they are nearly run dry. US military budget is bloated with over priced weapons, wages, pensions and benefits. The US system is cracked and they must cut off the losses to survive.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 4 2023 15:24 utc | 16

gpc@11..... sabotage runs both ways, missiles are not always required, as a rather large ammo depot in Rostov was vaporized.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 4 2023 15:30 utc | 17

Posted by: gpc | Oct 4 2023 15:20 utc | 16

Not sure about the translation but are you suggesting Russia will make a push to Kiev and Odessa this winter?

I’d like to think so but it seems ambitious. Having said that Ukraine has got nothing left to seriously hurt Russia so, maybe.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Oct 4 2023 15:30 utc | 18

I do not expect any real change

Me neither. US will continue "supporting" its Ukrainian uhh force projection as it did before Maidan and will after disavowing "blank checks" whosoever assumes title of POTUS on any day in any given decade so long as the House of Odious exercises the constitutional authority to establish NEW! executive offices, USAID beneficiaries, and NDAA missions. Zelenk*'s Big Israel prophecy, "the right to exist," is a done deal.

Posted by: sln2002 | Oct 4 2023 15:35 utc | 19

Biden wont lose because he wont run (the general election)

Hes a walking corpse. Please wake up.

He will most likely be ran on primary so noone else challenges current regime. Then for general he will be replaced for any puppet (newsom, gay dude, black woman, etc)

American democracy at its finest LOL

Posted by: Comandante | Oct 4 2023 15:11 utc | 12

Biden never had a constituency BEFORE he ran last time, and the catalyst to carry him to the finish line was the realization by the DNC/MIC/Deep Cesspool was that Biden was the most compromised, therefore the most reliable Puppet that they could install.
The U.S.A. is a 4th World semi/quasi Republic that exists only in the Potemkin World of controlled American Media and Hollywood.
The absurd suggestion that the USA might institute a Draft to replenish the pool of fools that collect a Military paycheck, beggars the imagination where Corporate, Banking, and Government Welfare keeps the Mirage of the Empire sputtering along.
Interest rates keep rising, Bonds keep collapsing. Yet American Politicians, on the take, in the Criminal Enterprise known as Ukraine, Inc. want to borrow more money to keep the fires, set by American Politicians and Apparatchiks, supplied.
Just another diversion to keep eyes off the fresh excrement evacuated onto American Streets.

Posted by: kupkee | Oct 4 2023 15:41 utc | 20

Gilbert Doctorow weighs in...
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/10/04/divine-intervention-and-the-end-of-the-war-in-ukraine/
Nonetheless, there were several occasions when it was only the cool head of an officer with power to launch missiles, whether Russian or American, that prevented false radar readings on missile activity of the other side to result in a “preventive” strike, applying the principle of “use them or lose them” with respect to the arsenal under his control. That we made it through the 20th century unscathed may well be considered as “dumb luck” as they say in American English, or “miraculous,” as people with faith in God would say.

In this context, I contend that what happened in the U.S. Congress yesterday was an act of divine intervention to save us from ourselves. The thirty minutes warning time before an incoming ICBM hits or an hours long warning time before a nuclear armed bomber would reach target, as in the case of Dr Strangelove, is a luxury that no longer exists. The existence of nuclear armed intermediate range U.S. missiles at Russia’s borders and hypersonic Russian missiles housed on small surface vessels or submarines in international waters off the shores of the United States, means that the warning time has been cut to five or ten minutes, which is to say, there is no longer a buffer against false alarms and automated launches. If the United States were to continue its escalation policy in Ukraine, aided and abetted by the British and the Germans, with their own newly announced plans for introducing Typhoon jets or TAURUS missiles into the war in Ukraine, then we would have hardly a chance of averting a shift by NATO or by Russia to tactical and then to strategic nuclear weapons, meaning the end of civilization on earth.

All of those who have disagreed with the Democratic party positions on everything and anything are, in the apt words of candidate Hilary Clinton in 2016 “deplorables.” Well, yesterday the deplorables had their day in court and they won.

Why am I saying all of this in a newsletter that is dedicated to foreign policy issues? Because the net result of the removal of Mr. McCarthy yesterday is to halt for an indefinite time all substantive work to restore to the federal budget the $6 billion or so of the total $24 billion for 2024 that was deleted from the compromise budget bill that passed Congress this past weekend and was signed by the President to finance the working of the federal government for the coming 45 days.

I take “indefinite time” to be rather prolonged, given that the internecine war going on within the Republican party on Capitol Hill is fierce and uncompromising. This creates the real possibility that there will be no stratagem, no dirty trick that Biden and his fellow war criminals in power can turn to continue assistance to Ukraine. Absent this oxygen, the Ukrainian war effort will shut down rather swiftly. Europe will be aghast but is unable to fill in for the missing American contribution.

The irony of these developments is that the Ukrainian war may end for entirely arbitrary reasons within the U.S. power structure. All the efforts of Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer that brought to the attention of millions of youtube watchers the guilt of the West for this supposedly “unprovoked” war will have played no role in the denouement. Nor will one even be able to say that those in Congress who opposed further aid to Ukraine did so not because they are peace-niks but because they prefer to do battle with China. No, the collapse of support for Ukraine will be attributable to the true collapse of American political culture.

Could it be....
THAT...
The entire house of cards....
Is Collapsing...??

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 4 2023 15:48 utc | 21

2025 - Shoigu ,I believe, has said the war will continue till 2025 rather than saying it will end in 2025.

2025 is also a year that has come up a number of times in relation to launching the war on China. As for any Russian offensive, there is simply no need while the target comes to them. Static warfare leaves jut one narrow belt of destruction while offensive warfare not only increases Russia's casualties but also cuts a swath of destruction in which civilians become casualties.

I have believed for some time that apart from denazifing and demilitarizing Ukraine, the SMO has been designed as a catalyst to trigger the breakup of the empire of lives. So far the Russian military has shown US/Nato military might to be little more than sandal wearing goat herders. On top of that is the dedollarization strategy. Military might and the US dollar are the two main strengths that have enabled US to create a hegemon empire.

What does remain to be seen is if the US economy can be prevented from collapsing until the end of 2025.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2023 15:53 utc | 22

There's no fatigue at NATO headquarters.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 4 2023 15:09 utc | 10

It wouldn't be at NATO headquarters that one would expect to see fatigue. After all, getting those four stars, or other advancement, depends on not being fatigued.

Posted by: laguerre | Oct 4 2023 15:54 utc | 23

The fundamental problem that Russia faces is that Russia has no way, short of global war, to so much as mildly inconvenience the decisionmakers in Washington. Hell, they waltz in and out of Kiev every day for photo-ops, air raid sirens blaring so that they can pose with The Little Twerp, looking all resolute.

Therefore, they have no incentive to back down. Of course, the war is increasingly unpopular, as well it should be. So what? WWI was hardly popular in the United States and American participation was of no benefit to the average frustrated American citizen. The government simply ignored its citizens, criminalized dissent and cranked the propaganda machine up to the max.

Of course, the United States destroyed Nordstream. So what? The European response has been to not ask questions, and if pressed, to say that they are bad slaves who deserve to be beaten more.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Oct 4 2023 15:56 utc | 24

Good, thanks MoA, to read news about McCarthy, just now I find that sonar/21 is in the air again, from being deleted, another sign of fracture. Now when the endgame starts.

Posted by: Reader | Oct 4 2023 15:58 utc | 25

I believe Russia's plan is to do nothing substantial on the ground until the coalition supporting Ukraine has irretrievably broken down. Just continue the long front attrition and attacking supply and logistics in the rear. There does appear to be preparation for some incremental advances, but nothing major. The rail link to Mariupol and points east is not yet complete and this would likely be required to support major operations in the south. Probably defensive positions along the Dnipr in Kherson are being strengthened as well.

Barring a political crisis in Kiev I don't expect any major plays for territory at least until the ground freezes or in the spring.

Another wild card is if the west tries something dramatic in hopes of provoking a Russian response that could be used to bolster support in Europe.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 4 2023 16:02 utc | 26

Don Bacon @ 10

There's no fatigue at NATO headquarters.

Wargasm, they've jerked off for 78ys, now they get to finally fuck a demon whore and they can't get enough, they just keep coming back night and day. Nothing's going to stop them till they're broken in defeat.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 4 2023 16:04 utc | 27

DGWO@24

Why post the whole essay instead of highlights with the link? A disservice to the author.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 4 2023 16:08 utc | 28

"I no longer think that the West is in control of the timing of global events and they are going to be forced to respond to events out of their control....AND timing" #7

Indeed, as Russians conduct business on their time, and western overtures to effect disruptions as such have largely failed.
However, more chatter stateside in recent months involving a draft/conscription of the gen z couch potatoes suggests the conventional weapons killing fields of Ukraine will pick up with actually deployed american boots on the ground shortly after Jan 2025.

Posted by: ERing46Z | Oct 4 2023 16:11 utc | 29

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 4 2023 15:48 utc | 24

Thank you for posting the link to Doctorow's piece and your highlights-much appreciated.

Posted by: canuck | Oct 4 2023 16:14 utc | 30

The feelings about this war that have become broadly felt were expressed very clearly everyday on this site two years ago. Proof positive the bar is an immensely valuable resource for public discussion.

The revulsion with the current US imperialist atrocity had not nearly peaked and it will continue apace until the shooting stops.

Nonetheless just seeing the machinations in advance is only half the solution. The next step is to win power for the wage slaves internationally to arrest these developments. This very thing has been tried and succeeded.

How can this be done? Perhaps the trusted B can vet a committee for a live meeting where plans for international political intervention against war can be developed. We certainly have a number of intelligent people from a number of countries key to the global economic system.

An effective antiwar movement ala that which emerged in the wake of the Iraq debacle but without Dem agencies like moveon.org is clearly the next step.

Yes, it was tried, but without a class appeal which is essential considering workers internationally suffer for this war and make up the global majority.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 4 2023 16:17 utc | 31

The House of Cards (evil empire) will continue to remain intact for as long as the elites and banking cabal wish it. The "kicking the can" narrative has been beaten to death and yet it's still a thing and will still be a thing long after many here have predicted it's end. The ONLY way this whole shitshow stops is if some policy change is implemented in DC/City of London to move on to another more fruitful endeavour. The usd is sloooowly dying but whether it happens in 2025 or 2035 who the hell knows??

Posted by: bisfugged | Oct 4 2023 16:20 utc | 32

Anyone ever seen supercooled water or superheated water (yootoob videos), in which water is chilled or heated beyond the point where it should change state, but it continues as liquid until it is disturbed, whereupon it dramatically transitions to steam or ice?

I propose that the Ukrainian military and state both have already been "super-destroyed", in that they have been pushed well beyond the point where collapse should have already occurred, but that destruction has been inflicted in such a gentle and gradual manner by the Russians that the Ukraine has not yet changed state from an appearance of being functional to being totally failed. When the level of destruction in the Ukraine finally overwhelms the delusion, the collapse of the Ukraine is going to be explosively sudden and dramatic. This could happen at any moment, but as the level of "super-destruction" mounts, the size of the required trigger event for collapse shrinks.

I agree with our host, though, that Russia will probably try to avoid the above-mentioned trigger event for Ukrainian collapse for a while yet. They don't seem to be in a hurry.

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 4 2023 16:20 utc | 33

reply to 29 and others

I must wonder if Russian leaders face a strategic paradox. They might have to be careful not to trigger a general collapse in Ukraine prematurely. Like surround a large battle group and force their surrender - which might crash Zelensky's regime. The longer they can drain Ukraine, the more secure a future peace for them will be. The goal is a demographic tragedy in which Ukraine faces reproductive extinction - with no chance of revival. Sad, but the West has left no alternative

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 4 2023 16:22 utc | 34

The damage in Russia from long-range missiles has to STOP. There comes a time when the people's nationalistic fervour gives way to a sense of apathy then possibly anger at the Kremlin. IF Putin does anything positive in the coming months it HAS to be preventing Olga out in the garden having a chunk of her house crush her to death!!

Posted by: bisfugged | Oct 4 2023 16:26 utc | 35

Maybe the russians are just waiting until the usa moves towards china.

2025 isnt far.

Posted by: Orgel | Oct 4 2023 16:27 utc | 36

What does remain to be seen is if the US economy can be prevented from collapsing until the end of 2025.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2023 15:53 utc | 25

Yep. I expect this Winter to be exciting, even without events in Ukraine. So many bubbles. So much bad management.

Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 4 2023 16:32 utc | 37

"The increasing fracture of support for Ukraine not only destroyed House Speaker Kevin McCarthy"

That may have helped to scuttle Kevin McCarthy, but it has been his capitulation to the Democrats on legislation, his continued support of Biden deficit spending and spending and spending, his lack of concern about the border invasion of the US by illegal aliens, and ultimately his refusal to adhere to promises he made to the "holdouts" in Congress in order to secure his election to the speakership. He thought he could act with impunity and that business as usual would continue.

A lot of Americans are tired of the money laundering through Ukraine, sick of Zelensky, sickened by the slaughter, corruption and neo-Nazism in Ukraine, and disgusted by the continued spending on Ukraine which mainly goes to US defense companies so they can get rid of obsolete equipment.

Posted by: Belle | Oct 4 2023 16:35 utc | 38

And it just gets curiouser and curiouser; see below for explanation.


"The European Commission intends to unfreeze about €13 billion in funding for Hungary by the end of November, three informed officials said.

Two of them said the allocation of funds was partly motivated by a desire to win Orbán's support for the budget increase.

.....

The European Commission proposed increasing the common EU budget by €66 billion to cover the increased costs. Part of them will go to the programme of financial support for Kyiv in the amount of €50 billion, provided for the next four years."

https://news.yahoo.com/european-commission-unfreeze-billions-euros-074317342.html


Ukraine could reap $200 billion EU bonanza – FT

" In total, the bloc may have to allocate roughly €186 billion ($195 billion) for Ukraine in the seven years following its entry.

This would force a cut in payments for existing recipients by some 20.3% per 1 hectare of farmland.
The EU Council based its study on the bloc simultaneously accepting nine additional members: Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and six western Balkan states. According to the analysis, the cost of adding them all to the EU’s existing budget would amount to roughly €256.8 billion ($269 billion). The study warned that the entry of new members would cause a drastic redistribution of funds within the union. For instance, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Cyprus, and Malta would no longer be eligible for cohesion funding."

https://thepressunited.com/updates/ukraine-could-reap-200-billion-eu-bonanza-ft/

Posted by: bubbles | Oct 4 2023 16:35 utc | 39

Eighthman @38: "The goal is a demographic tragedy in which Ukraine faces reproductive extinction..."

Basically, we're talking about where that "population pyramid" graph of the Ukraine from yesterday's discussion completely detaches from the X axis? Rising like a bubble until nothing is left? That is an incredible tragedy, but you are probably right.

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 4 2023 16:35 utc | 40

Unless the Ukrainian army suddenly collapses I do not expect any real change before the U.S. election or before a new administration has settled in.
As far as I can see, there is no way the Kiev regime can last until January 2025, especially when economic and military support is fading and the popoulation is being decimated. The collapse can come any time, probably before the 10 year anniversary of the Maidan coup.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 4 2023 16:39 utc | 41

W Gruff@37

The current state of Ukrainian society and the UAF is a cipher, an information black hole from which all that emerges is posturing, propaganda, and rumors. Release of factual information is criminalized. So, as you say, there might be a sudden and complete breakdown. The problem for getting a comprehensive settlement if this were to happen is the lack of agency, something that would have to be wrested away from the western backers for Ukraine to, of its own initiative, reach a settlement with Russia. A groundswell of popular sentiment might be sufficient for this to occur, but that seems unlikely as I doubt there is a consensus amongst the population even if a majority were in favor of ending the conflict. A restoration of Ukrainian agency would be the easiest path to a settlement, and perhaps might allow the west a face-saving off ramp, as they could wash their hands of the whole affair without taking responsibility for the agreement. We will see.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 4 2023 16:50 utc | 42

It's most likely that even temporary shortages of ammunition from Nato to Ukraine will result Russia getting much more ahead of the game in terms of increased losses and some critical areas gained. Any sort of shortage will have always bad effects most of the time and put the one suffering it behind, which is harder to catch up later.

Even non-shortages of ammunition, Russia is still outproducing entire Nato by large single digit factors on the most important categories like rockets, missiles, shells, tanks. Drones, not sure, but at least pretty even (recorded Lancet strike statistics hit over 500 in September).

Expecting Russia make some critical gains in the coming months, especially pushing the AFU bulge out from near Rabotyne, reclaiming Urozhaine, gainig better positions north of Avdeevka, and in the Maryinka area (especially Novomikhalovka in the south to put more pressure on AFU Zaporozhye flank and Ugledar).

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 4 2023 16:54 utc | 43

@42

I am totally dismayed by u$$a support for surrounding Russia and China while degrading its domestic wellbeing and squandering its future.

what good is sundering china while ruining u$$a tiny moral foundation

glimmer of hope the straussians may not get their way in u$$a

Posted by: paddy | Oct 4 2023 16:57 utc | 44

ZeErmak's sanctions case suffers another international defeat.

Everyone already understands that the next sanctions case will be more for show than real, since all sanctions are circumvented through schemes - this makes the product more expensive, allowing the “interested” to profit, but does not in any way affect the course of events.

For example, even Canada secretly allowed businessmen to bypass its own sanctions against Russia, writes Le Devoir, citing the results of an analysis of federal data on international trade.

What can we say about Turkey, Kazakhstan, China and other countries that have long established their routes to circumvent sanctions.

Conclusion: everyone is profiting from the Ukrainian crisis, and the Ukrainian people are paying for it with their lives, future and debt. Strategically, Bankovaya lost because it did not calculate that they, being naive, were all used for their own purposes and abandoned.


https://t.me/legitimniy/16395

Posted by: Down South | Oct 4 2023 17:02 utc | 45

Armies generally don't collapse. Germans in WW2 fought all the way back to Berlin and only quit when their LEADERS surrendered. Ditto for USA Confederate army. Ukrainian soldiers at least as committed to their cause as soldiers in these armies.

Russia's best strategy is bite off a huge chunk of low value agricultural/village land in Sumy/Kharkiv oblasts this winter. This will create consternation among the stupid masses of peasant-mentality civilians in both Ukraine and west (and perhaps also among peasant-mentality soldiers in Ukraine) that control of territory is what matters versus attrition of manpower and weaponry. Ukraine will then be forced to counter-attack to reassure the stupid masses, and thus the attrition will continue.

One big bite should be plenty to keep Ukraine furiously counter-attacking all of 2024. Meanwhile, destroy the Ukraine electrical system this winter, causing a new flood of refugees into western Europe. Meanwhile, Republicans in USA have everything to gain by ensuring Ukraine situation gets slowly but steadily worse until Nov 2024. Republicans won't cut aid completely, because then they get blamed if Ukraine collapses. Rather, they'll give just enough to allow Ukraine to avoid collapse but not enough to accomplish anything. Europeans will do likewise. Meanwhile, Ukraine leaders will see the writing on the wall and steal as much as possible, ensuring the front line troops are undersupplied and thus unable to fight and not paid and thus demoralized.

Big risk is if Russia moves too aggressively, thus giving USA excuse to escalate. Escalation makes Biden look strong, like a big strapping young testosterone-filled bull of a man, versus the senile nincompoop that he is in reality. So Democrats are itching to escalate. Russia must absolutely avoid giving USA an excuse to escalate, though obviously false flags are possible. However, I suspect top CIA/Defense leaders also can read the writing the wall and don't won't to take responsibility for outrageous illegal false flags. Lots of ways to sabotage USA Presidential or State Department orders without explicitly refusing those orders.

So yes, late 2024 or early 2025 is probably when peace talks begin.

Only stable outcome of peace talks is one in which Ukraine becomes de-militarized vassal state with Russian military bases north and south of Lviv (in Carpathian mountains). Final borders don't matter if Ukraine is vassal state. Russia could even give Ukraine back Donbas and Crimea and maybe even half of south Russia into the bargain, provided Ukraine has no military and Russia effectively controls who runs Ukrainian government. "Giving" land back while seizing permanent control of the government would be a bold propaganda move because it would cause peasant-mentality types to think Ukraine had won the war with such an outcome. Unfortunately, there are also peasant-mentality types in Russia (and this forum) who might think such an outcome means Russia lost, and therefore this bold move might be ruled out for Russian domestic political reasons. But it would be a great way to reconcile the Ukrainian peasantry with Russia.

Posted by: Revelo | Oct 4 2023 17:05 utc | 46

the pessimist @47

What I envision is the Russians shelling Ukrainian positions until one day they send out the drones for targeting and nobody is there in the Ukrainian positions. Kiev continues to rant about mobilizing millions and HIMARS galore, but the Ukrainian strong points are just empty. The Russians stop shooting and the entire line of contact is silent. Perplexed, the Russians cautiously advance, but find nothing. Finally reaching Kiev, they track down the source of the broadcasts about massive mobilizations and discover it is just a tape loop playing repeatedly into a transmitter in a long-abandoned TV studio.

Or something like that.

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 4 2023 17:07 utc | 47

The unified electronic register of those liable for military service has already been launched and is filled with more than 90% of information, said the Minister of Digital Transformation Mikhail Fedorov.

The register was called "Talisman".

“This is a closed system that has its own protected circuit. All the (protection) requirements for it are met. This is a fairly secure product that has no hint of the possibility of being vulnerable. And we see that after a year and a half of a full-scale war, there is no leakage of sensitive information.” , said Fedorov.

He noted that there are still questions regarding services based on Obereg, and the Ministry of Digital Development is awaiting the vision of the new Ministry of Defense team.

https://t.me/nabludatels/34678

Mobilization methods are being tightened, but they are trying to present this to the public in a veiled way so that the average person does not realize the consequences of such steps.

The Oberig system is digital slavery of Ukrainians, who will be immediately deprived of all their rights and freedoms. Even if they are hiding at home, everything will be cut off for them, bank accounts, the right to receive documents, medical care, use of communication services, etc.

This also applies to women; soon they will also be prohibited from leaving if they are registered in the military or their profession is subject to mobilization.

This is the real purpose of “DII”.

We have long been aware that the government is preparing “information serfdom 2.0” for Ukrainians through “DIYU,” but we did not introduce it because we did not want to scare people away from this digitalization, which was introduced to the masses under good intentions. Now that the time has come and there are already a lot of people in DIY, you can introduce what it was really created for.

It was predicted that in the fall of 2023 they would begin to softly launch “electronic subpoenas” through “Diya”.


https://t.me/legitimniy/16394

Posted by: Down South | Oct 4 2023 17:08 utc | 48

There will be no peace before the unconditional surrender of Ukraine, with terms dictated by Russia.

The US leadership now recognizes this and is terrified to enter negotiations because any such dialogue means inevitable humiliation for the political bloc associated with them.

Which of course brings us all back to the “will they or won’t they” of nuclear warfare, because hey—yeah—our leaders are truly just that narcisstic.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Oct 4 2023 17:08 utc | 49

@Revelo | Oct 4 2023 17:05 utc | 51

Armies generally don't collapse.
We are not speaking about general averages here. Ukraine is in an extreme basket case situation.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 4 2023 17:09 utc | 50

Re: Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 4 2023 16:20 utc | 37

Super-destructed analogy . . . super-cooling/heating

Very good observation!
It still resonates with the "first it was very slow, and than instantly" - regarding the degradation.

Every engineering mind understands this now (man or woman, naturally). And any(thing?) in between.

Thanks.

Posted by: LogosApplied | Oct 4 2023 17:12 utc | 51

Night Tripper | Oct 4 2023 15:30 utc | 20

charkiv is most likely - in no way will russians go to west-ukraine, not even kiev.

Posted by: gpc | Oct 4 2023 17:14 utc | 52

@Revelo | Oct 4 2023 17:05 utc | 51

Armies generally don't collapse.

Bullshit. The history of war mocks your misunderstanding.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Oct 4 2023 17:15 utc | 53

Due to the ongoing military conflict, decadent sentiments are growing among the population of Ukraine - people are looking for an opportunity to leave the country by any means. At the same time, Western partners are only aggravating the current situation.

So, after the statement of the former head of the British Ministry of Defense Ben Wallace that the Ukrainian authorities should mobilize more young people, many young guys had another reason to leave their country. That is, mothers with teenage boys will more than likely want to leave the state before their children are banned from leaving.

Female pharmacists are also fleeing the country - the reason for their departure was military registration.

In parallel with this, the smuggling of people across the border is growing - men liable for military service are ready to spend a lot of money to leave Ukraine. For example, for 10 thousand dollars you can issue fictitious documents about the unsuitability of potential conscripts for military service. And the same border guards are quite ready to “turn a blind eye” to crossing the border for a bribe of 5 thousand euros per person.

The services of “guides” cost about the same, but the chances of being turned away increase. However, all these “services” are inaccessible to most people - the standard of living of Ukrainians dropped greatly during wartime.


https://t.me/rezident_ua/19952

Posted by: Down South | Oct 4 2023 17:18 utc | 54

DS@53

If this system is really complete then Kiev has a reasonable idea of the current population of Ukrainian controlled territory and must also understand what the losses in the conflict actually are.

Perhaps it will be hacked at some point.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 4 2023 17:18 utc | 55

in no way will russians go to west-ukraine

Posted by: gpc | Oct 4 2023 17:14 utc | 57

---

What then will be the conflict's resolution for ethnic Russians in the Baltics?

Posted by: too scents | Oct 4 2023 17:18 utc | 56

@William Gruff | Oct 4 2023 16:20 utc | 37

A similar analogy: The difference between static and dynamic friction. Dynamic friction is less than static friction. We are close to the point where static friction is overcome, and dynamic friction is insufficient to stop the slide. Once it starts, it slides until the collapse is complete.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 4 2023 17:20 utc | 57

unimperator | Oct 4 2023 16:54 utc | 48 "Drones, not sure, but at least pretty even..."

Perhaps in numbers but not in mil spec. Ukraine uses a lot of civilian drones that are easily neutralized with EW whereas Russia has massively ramped up production of military spec drones, both surveillance and attack.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2023 17:20 utc | 58

maybe Russia will accept a buffer zone in Western Ukraine, but only if NATO pulls back further. no way it will accept a US presence in the buffer zone. i dont think it will because what guarantees could the US offer than anybody would trust?

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 4 2023 17:24 utc | 59

Peter AU1@63

Both sides conduct effective combat with drones daily. The Russians seem to have more long range capability and likely have a greater number of experienced drone teams at this point. EW is not a panacea, although helpful - especially in defeating attacks away from the active front. Those are my observations.

Posted by: the pessimist | Oct 4 2023 17:29 utc | 60

I agree.

The big question for Russia is how long can it keep absorbing strikes on Sevastopol, its Navy and the Crimean bridge. Other than black swan events, such as a nuclear disaster or other type of false flag aimed at either escalating Nato to intervene or reviving popular support for Ukraine from its dwindling critical mass levels, Nato's biggest ace is exploiting the vulnerability of Russia's Navy and Crimea's precarious land bridge to Russia.

Russia has lost 4 ships in 18 months, not the end of the world, but the Black Sea Fleet is definitely under threat and only has about half a dozen ships for each asset class. We can expect more to be taken out. We can also expect the bridge to be attacked again. The longer the war goes on, the higher the likelihood of a Pearl Harbour scenario, but delivered by a thousand cuts and in slow motion.

We can expect Nato to target other vulnerable assets, ones that Russia has few in number, like AWACS planes for example. The less effective Nato becomes in the ground war, the more it will focus on Russia's pressure points to test both its pain barrier and disciplined strategic focus.

Nato and the US want to freeze the conflict before the election, but have nothing to offer Russia, because giving Russia what it wants is politically unfeasible for them. So they will try and do things they believe will force Russia to accept a deal, or bait it into justifying a Nato war, which they believe they can still win and manage under the nuclear threshold, as crazy as it sounds. Neither Russia nor Nato want this of course, but for sure many in the US (and UK) feel they will be safe even as Europe gets set on fire.

Thankfully so far Russia has not taken the bait. Yet, by not responding to Nato attacks by attacking Nato, ironically Russia is also making these kind of attacks and escalations increasingly likely, as well as reinforcing the sense of impunity of those geographically removed from where Russia is limiting its Area of Operations... ie Ukraine.

We may see a slowing down on the front over the next few months due to a combination of bad weather and possible backroom deal making. Putin will gladly use the time to continue building up his arsenal and manpower. He will likely not launch any major offensives before his re-election in March-April. After which, a spring-summer Russian offensive will be well timed to humiliate Biden/Dems/War Uniparty and dissuade any competitor to make the Ukraine war a bipartisan issue. It could be Russia's best chance to exploit the Schwerpunkt both on the ground, with a depleted UAF, and within its support base in Nato, concerned over their own political future. The very people throwing Zelensky under the bus now, could find themselves being thrown under the bus by next year.

A well timed domestic crisis, particularly of a financial nature (will Xi attack the US economy by dumping all those US treasuries he's already resigned to losing to US sanctions and/or seizures?) could also help dissuade any candidate's attempts to justify even more billions flowing out of the country as even American voters suffer...

What the deep state and Nato have prepared to counter this is anyone's guess, but I am expecting a very rough, bloody and scary 2024.

Posted by: Rubiconned | Oct 4 2023 17:33 utc | 61

Ukraine could reap $200 billion EU bonanza – FT
...
This would force a cut in payments for existing recipients by some 20.3%
Posted by: bubbles | Oct 4 2023 16:35 utc | 43

I fully believe the US has the power to force Brussels to accept Ukraine as a European Union member. Ukraine would be the poorest EU member bar none. Under existing EU law the flow of money from existing members to Ukraine would be huge, and the money would keep flowing, year after year, until Ukraine becomes as rich as the other members, if ever.

Posted by: Passerby | Oct 4 2023 17:55 utc | 62

Slavyangrad Telegram Channel reports...
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/65630
There are official reports that the Russian army has broken through the defense of the AFU in three directions.

In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian airborne units, supported by artillery and armored vehicles, drove the enemy more than two kilometers from the village of Verbovoye. The plot with the video of the liberation of the village was published by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

The footage shows how Russian soldiers enter a forest plantation, ground by artillery fire, strewn with the corpses of AFU soldiers.

The airborne units conducted additional reconnaissance using UAVs, after which the assault detachments entered the battle, the commentary says.

"The quick and coordinated actions of the Novorossiysk assault paratroopers did not allow the enemy to resist. The personnel of the AFU was destroyed," the press service reported.

According to available data, a large number of enemy equipment and manpower were destroyed, several dozen militants surrendered.

Good news comes from other directions as well. In particular, the press service of the 105th Motorized Rifle regiment of the DPR fighting near Maryinka reports on the breakthrough of the Ukrainian defense and the exit to the borders of the village of Georgievka.

"Our army managed to break through the enemy's defenses to the north of Maryinka and reach the outskirts of the village of Georgievka. The enemy has begun withdrawing troops from the village," the regiment's press service said in a statement.

Information is received about the advance of the Russian group in the Svatovo-Kremennaya direction towards Borovaya. Ukrainian media confirms the breakthrough and the advance of Russian troops in this direction.

US bond market defeated: yields on 30-year treasuries hit 5%

Traders are bracing for US 10-year bond yields to exceed 5 per cent for the first time since 2007 after they jumped to 4.85 per cent this week.

"Bond yields in the U.S., at their highest in a year, are starting to look disruptive to other regions and sectors of the global fixed-income market," HSBC Holdings Plc strategist Stephen Major wrote in a note to clients.

Today the 20 year UST bond was trading at 5.15% yield....

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 4 2023 18:01 utc | 63

Russia will not only defeat Ukraine. I will also defeat NATO and the collective West on the economic front. This will take years.
USA will plunder Europe and brain drain will happen again. This is the end goal now. It will take decades for the US to regenerate given the level of rot in the economy, population, media, military, universities and political class.

Posted by: webcraft | Oct 4 2023 18:01 utc | 64

The War Party believes it can keep The Ukrainian Civil War on simmer using mercs until FINALLY those sanctions destroy the Russian economy. Therefore, expect this Civil War to last into 2025.

Posted by: Exile | Oct 4 2023 18:06 utc | 65

Good point, oddly, as it's kind of glaring, I hadn't put two and two together, getting old and slow witted:

“And so, within a week of each other, Canada and the United States lost their Speakers of the House of Representatives because of Ukraine. Who's running this shit show?: The search has begun to find out who's hunting the North American Speakers of Parliament.

https://t.me/vicktop55/17440

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 4 2023 18:06 utc | 66

Russia could even give Ukraine back Donbas and Crimea and maybe even half of south Russia into the bargain, provided Ukraine has no military and Russia effectively controls who runs Ukrainian government. "Giving" land back while seizing permanent control of the government would be a bold propaganda move because it would cause peasant-mentality types to think Ukraine had won the war with such an outcome. Unfortunately, there are also peasant-mentality types in Russia (and this forum) who might think such an outcome means Russia lost, and therefore this bold move might be ruled out for Russian domestic political reasons. But it would be a great way to reconcile the Ukrainian peasantry with Russia.

Posted by: Revelo | Oct 4 2023 17:05 utc | 51

The above comment does not seriously consider the political architecture of the Russian Federation, or of the concept of the "Rodina", or of the mentality of the Russian population.

It is politically, and security wise impossible for Russia to return the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhe, and Kherson oblasts to Ukraine...

Medvedev himself has categorically stated that Russia will move to add further Ukrainian oblasts to itself..

I suggest you, and other doubters here, use a computer translator to listen to the public speeches given by Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov, and other Russian officials.... You need to hear from the "horses mouth" what these leaders are saying, directly, without CNN/MSNBC/NYT filtering.....

Failure to do so, will result in surprises at best, catastrophe at worst...

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 4 2023 18:12 utc | 67

I fully believe the US has the power to force Brussels to accept Ukraine as a European Union member. Ukraine would be the poorest EU member bar none. Under existing EU law the flow of money from existing members to Ukraine would be huge, and the money would keep flowing, year after year, until Ukraine becomes as rich as the other members, if ever.

Posted by: Passerby | Oct 4 2023 17:55 utc | 70

That sounds like a typical American point of view. Personally I don't think Ukraine is ever going to be an EU member. I don't think any current EU member is willing to pay the price. Governments may be willing to pay out for restoring the Ukrainian economy, but they will quail before their electors' refusal, faced with the price rises they're currently facing.

Posted by: laguerre | Oct 4 2023 18:25 utc | 68

simplex @ 74

Some here talk about the collapse of US economy.
What does that mean actually?

Let me walk you through it. The western economy won't collapse "kaboom" because unlike 1939 and 2008 this time they won't tell you, it's very well planned. Did you not realize that the UK collapsed during the Truss administration? No one would buy UK gilts, it collapsed further last month when it was quietly revealed the Bank of England is underwater on its bond holdings. Birmingham, 2nd largest city in UK, just declared it's bankrupt, which would be kind of trivial if the rest of the UK was on sound footing but in this case it's part of the whirlwind. Canary in the coal mine.

Strangely, no one is selling pencils and apples on the street, they've become habituated to the gradual decline started with Thatcher and Reagan and in the EU by the introduction of the intended irreparable austerity euro. That doesn't mean the consequences won't be the same as 1939 but it'll be slow and gradual, like the tide eroding a shoreline. You've been living it for quite awhile.

They are hoping that if the decline is gradual enough instead of "kaboom" you won't notice the fact that you are living in a tent, on a street, eating govt. handouts, just like you don't notice how inferior your life is compared to your parents and grandparents. Immigrants will cheer everyone up, bankrupt in the UK is still better than Ghana right? Someone will carry the load.

Are you sure you aren't Zanon???

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 4 2023 18:30 utc | 69

"The way out of the war requires U.S. negotiations with Russia. But the Biden administration as well as the current EU leadership are too deeply invested in Ukraine to launch serious talks."

As Bernard pointed out no-one in Western foreign affairs understands the Russian mindset or their rational for their actions.
Whether its genuine Ignorance or hubris might be harder to call.
But here's thing.
The only investment remaining is destruction of the Ukraine .
And the associated economic destruction of the EU
There's no off ramps, no negotiation left.
Just meat grinder till its over.
The Russians didn't plan the above or wanted it play out in such a fashion.
But that's the hubris in the western world since 2001 reaching It's conclusion in ever faster cycles.


Posted by: jpc | Oct 4 2023 18:30 utc | 70

"The way out of the war requires U.S. negotiations with Russia. But the Biden administration as well as the current EU leadership are too deeply invested in Ukraine to launch serious talks."

"But the Biden administration as well as the current EU leadership are too deeply invested in world domination to launch serious talks."

Sorry b, had to fix it for you. What part of world domination does someone have talks over?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 4 2023 18:38 utc | 71

Some here talk about the collapse of US economy.
What does that mean actually?
Posted by: simplex | Oct 4 2023 18:02 utc | 74

2008 on steroids. US economy, like the US dollar is faith based with no substance behind them. US government debt is constantly increasing its debt which means constantly increasing percentage of revenue required to service that dept. Stockmarkets are pure speculation rather than primary and secondary industries - many bubbles there waiting to burst.
Government bailing out banks and financial institution that are constantly on the verge of collapse

On top of that, dedollarization is now taking place so at a time when US needs to print more money to prop up its economy, many dollars that were previously required in international trade are coming home to roost.

One faction currently trying to block continued Ukraine funding but that is because they want to launch a war against China. Perhaps the American elite are living in total hubris in regards their own economy or perhaps they think wars can fix their domestic economic issues.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2023 18:42 utc | 72

The Biden administration as well as the current EU leadership are incapable of making an agreement.

Nobody would believe them. Not the Russians, not the Chinese, not anybody else either. Azerbaijan and Turkey just stayed away from a "negotiation" over Armenia for that reason.

Regime change is not needed only to get Western government that will talk, it is also needed to get Western government anybody would trust enough to talk with.

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Oct 4 2023 18:44 utc | 73

maybe Russia will accept a buffer zone in Western Ukraine, but only if NATO pulls back further. no way it will accept a US presence in the buffer zone. i dont think it will because what guarantees could the US offer than anybody would trust?

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 4 2023 17:24 utc | 65

Currently the nato buffer is Donbass, Crimea and all border regions. That's all inside Russia. The talk about nato retreating or removing missiles from the border is just talk, not going to happen. They're moving more weapons at close range and expanding.

Posted by: rk | Oct 4 2023 18:49 utc | 74

LightYearsFromHome | Oct 4 2023 18:30 utc | 79

You posted while I was writing my comment @83. An interesting scenario though I think we are still in the 'prop it up' or 'finger in the dyke' stage.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2023 18:51 utc | 75

@74 Simplex
A collapse of the us economy means that the banking system has gone into default, corporations have zero operating capital and markets everywhere are frozen as investors have flown the coop. The govt. may also be in default as treasury bonds cant be sold to anyone including the fed. Also, many govt institutions have NO money for citizens pensions, Medicare and the like...

Posted by: bisfugged | Oct 4 2023 18:56 utc | 76

@70 LYFH
Nailed it!! I would like to add that a Silent Depression is definitely upon us as families everywhere are having a very hard time keeping their heads above water as prices for food, shelter and fuel rise just enough to cause headaches for family budgets these days.

Posted by: bisfugged | Oct 4 2023 19:01 utc | 77

The arms industry needs to ramp up weapons and ammunition production as "the bottom of the barrel is now visible" due to the war in Ukraine, NATO Military Committee head Admiral Rob Bauer said on Tuesday.

NATO has been pressing for a boost in defence production to satisfy a demand for weapons and equipment that has soared since Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, as allies not only rush supplies to Kyiv but also build up their own inventories.

Speaking on the first day of the Warsaw Security Forum, Bauer said budgets had already risen years before the war, but the industry had not increased production capacity.

"And that has led to higher prices already before the war. And that actually has (been) exacerbated by the fact that we now give away weapon systems to Ukraine, which is great, and ammunition, but not from full warehouses," he said.

"We started to give away from half-full or lower warehouses in Europe and therefore the bottom of the barrel is now visible. And we need the industry to ramp up production in a much higher tempo and we need large volumes."

Bauer last month warned that a drastic rise in ammunition prices meant that allies' higher defence spending did not automatically translate into greater security and called for more private investment in defence companies.

https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2023/10/04/nato-urges-arms-production-boost-as-warehouses-half-full

Allow me to offer an explanation.

Nato is suffering mass inflation because Ursula VDL who can't run a hot dog stand has micro-managed European industries into oblivion, destroyed education, and real professional CAD designers, programmers, mathematicians, physicians, chemists etc. are in short supply. In the last two and a half decades the supply chains in Amerika and EU were built on outsourcing. Now, trying to start a trade war with China, the largest supplier of sub assembled components for everything, exacerbates bottlenecks and disruptions.

We can therefore conclude that the west is impotant when it comes to sustainable wars. Full of hot air, but that doesn't really count.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 4 2023 19:02 utc | 78

Heavy is the neck that bears the weight of the dead albatross...

Maybe next time be mindful not to kill the albatross.

Posted by: titmouse | Oct 4 2023 19:04 utc | 79

Under existing EU law the flow of money from existing members to Ukraine would be huge, and the money would keep flowing, year after year, until Ukraine becomes as rich as the other members, if ever.

Posted by: Passerby | Oct 4 2023 17:55 utc | 63

As Ukraine's fortunes improved, many if not most of the others would be dragged down at the behest of EU leadership. Might take a fair amount of bribery to get some of the others to go along. Hungary again comes to mind and of course Poland wouldn't want to be left without a ticket on the gravy train. Like my old uncle shucking peas; one for the pot, two for me!

Posted by: bubbles | Oct 4 2023 19:08 utc | 80

@77

Instead of collapse it will probably be a decline.

Loosing the dominance of the dollar and the control of the world resources of the global South or RoW US and West in general should start to work hard instead of 'robbing' other countries. IE the import/export deficit of US will not continue. The printing of money will not continue and so on.

It will not happen suddenly but it will require decades.

Posted by: Mario | Oct 4 2023 19:10 utc | 81

Fatigue maybe setting in in the west but this could lead to the nutcases at the helm creating a false flag event in Ukraine to perk everyone up.
Meanwhile in Russia, the whole country is set to do a full scale nuclear drill the day before Putin's birthday according to TASS. They're also detonating a live nuke somewhere in the artic circle near enough the same time as the drill.
Somehow I think that negotiations are not likely in the near to far future. I'd better get back to my garden and start digging a bit deeper and buy more reinforced concrete.

Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Oct 4 2023 19:11 utc | 82

bisfugged @ 77

Everyone is so dramatic, total collapse is so 1939. Everything was in black and white then, 15 min newsreels and two hour movies, now it's living color 8K resolution and at least five seasons, seven if manages to jumps the shark. Sit back and enjoy, don't binge it all at once.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 4 2023 19:12 utc | 83

@79

Inflation in EU is primarily caused by energy prices so, in the end, from the sanctions against RF.

Naturally this cannot be told by the mainstream propaganda.

Posted by: Mario | Oct 4 2023 19:14 utc | 84

Note - the broader economy does not need to collapse Dimitri Orlov style if the Federal Gov’t becomes insolvent.

Posted by: Exile | Oct 4 2023 19:15 utc | 85

even if Biden loses, most republicans still support the war in Ukraine, or conversely shifting the war to one on China. and, goes without saying, almost all democratic politicians.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 4 2023 14:55 utc | 6

It is always easier to end someone else's war. Ending your own war is admitting a mistake/failure.

Posted by: Wim | Oct 4 2023 19:18 utc | 86

Peter AU1 @ #25

2025 - Shoigu ,I believe, has said the war will continue till 2025 rather than saying it will end in 2025.

Great care has to be taken regarding press coverage of the statements in translation.

The Western press routinely, deliberately mistranslates statements by foreign leaders - and they translated this piece deliberately badly. Some papers actually tried to pretend that it represents a "blunder" by Shoigu that would drive a wedge between Putin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov.

Shoigu was speaking from notes, to senior staff of the Russian Defency Ministry, in an organised briefing. It was not 'off the cuff'; Shoigu was not extemporising.

In the relevant section of his address there were a few sentences about the ongoing interference by the Empire of Lies on the side of Ukraine in the SMO, then the single sentence currently being used by Western media to fuel a global circle-jerk:

"The consistent implementation of the measures in the Action Plan until 2025 will make it possible to achieve plan goals."

The 'Action Plan until 2025' is not the action plan for the SMO, although it certainly will affect the SMO.

It is the Государственная Программа Вооружения (ГПВ or GPV to 2025) - the State Armaments Program, which is the Defence Ministry's plan to overhaul the Russian military force structure. The current 'action plan' was implemented in 2017 (or thereabouts) and runs to 2025.

Almost all journalism is performed by midwits with no language skills, and no genuine grasp of the most basic principles of their putative area of 'expertise'.

Throw propaganda imperatives into that low-cognition, low-information shitstorm, and you get "ZOMFG!! Putin threatened nukes!!!!!" when VVP was asked specifically about Russia's nuclear doctrine and expressly laid out the core doctrinal principles.

The entire system relies on the Murray Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect (a term coined by the late Michael Crichton).

We are in Clown World.

If the media in the Empire of Lies says a thing, it's good practice to assume it's bullshit until you lay eyes on the source.

The text of Shoigu's speech of 26 September 2023 is on the Russian Ministry of Defence website, but I didn't bookmark the link and can't be bothered fetching it.

Posted by: Kratoklastes | Oct 4 2023 19:24 utc | 87

Russian recruiting is through the roof.

I'm surprised our host still speaks of negotiations. Lavrov, Medvedev, and Volodin have been clear. There are two possibilities: unconditional surrender and Ukraine becomes 404 de jure as well as de facto.

Personally, I expect those possibilities are not mutually exclusive.

Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Oct 4 2023 19:30 utc | 88

@74

Well and truly put.

Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Oct 4 2023 19:34 utc | 89

@Rubiconned | Oct 4 2023 17:33 utc | 62

most old US-treasuries (0,5 -1%!!) at chinas banks are now below they value - you cant dump those!
u got less then u payed - trapped china is the new japan - but with the same old disease!

Posted by: gpc | Oct 4 2023 19:36 utc | 90

by: Don Bacon | Oct 4 2023 15:09 utc | 9

Thanks Don for the link. Highly interesting.

General Christopher Cavoli also from the article:

We’re also validating a lot of things, you know, the way we link intelligence to operations. We’ve tried to share that with our Ukrainian colleagues and they’ve adopted it very quickly, and it’s been very successful for them. So to that end, you know, it sort of validates the way we do business.

So, here is a confession that justifies taking down every ISR asset within 500 km around the battle space.

In the old times of USSR, Brezhnev & Co. of old school communists and anti-Nazis would swiftly kill them all and devastate Europe till Faroe Islands if they squeaked something like that, way back then.
There were polite and better times before, but those are not coming back.

Everything they do will end up as F-35. Just too much project management and theory. Not gaining combat experience, while debating, planning, plotting, and bubbling nonsense on such Conferences is NATO's auto-self-demise.

So CEPA forum haven't heard the news yet, claiming their slogan:

Winning the War, Winning the Peace

Sure thing, they are still convinced that they will win in Ukraine.
Or Ukraine for them. Or that it'll be cheap. Or that ROI is coming back.

The only thing they do not get is that RF is in firm position, like in an old South African proverb:

A crocodile’s strength is in the water.

Posted by: whirlX | Oct 4 2023 19:36 utc | 91

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2023 18:42 utc | 73

The US/Fed has an existential problem: if they drop interest to zero , the kill the American dollar as a reserve currency.

If the Fed continues to raise rates they kill the American economy.

No can to kick this time round as they have lost the confidence of the ROW

Posted by: canuck | Oct 4 2023 19:37 utc | 92

b: A short war and a Ukrainian capitulation to Russia's demand for it to stay out of NATO would surely have been better.

If Russia had wanted a short war, it wouldn't have set the conditions for peaceful coexistence with Ukraine so impossible to comply with: Regime change in Ukraine; denazification and holding guilty parties to the Odessa massacre; NATO retreat to 1996 status quo!!!!! Setting conditions as these means Russia knows nowhere in hell the west can even contemplate a settlement.

Russia wanted war. It wanted the kind of war that results in what has happened in 18 months in Ukraine: Population in Ukraine desperate for the departure of Zelenski; Sapping of western Europe and 5-eye gangsters economically and geopolitically; de facto multipolarity with Asia as the new center of geopolitics. Casualty count is nearly 10-1 in Russia favor (never mind what western MSM claims, or even some of the barflies here); Ukrainian of Russian ancestry in Eastern Ukraine are saved from Nazi slaughter that started since 2014; western economy in shambles, along with Uncle Sam's; new consensus formed in global South and mid-industrialized nations regarding what the world ought to be like going forward; Russian economy/industry given a strong push due to the war. What is not to like??? OTOH, look at the west: $200+ billions Euro/Dollar down the drain already with nothing to show, not even Russian economic chaos or Chinese stoppage in development. General populations bitter (never mind what MSM reports that all western fronts are in solid support of Ukies). Each passing day drags them collectively deeper down that abyss that they had actually set for Russia and China to decent. Oh yeah, they won democracy and freedom, so they say!

The change of 500-years is already set: What has happened over the past 18 months woke more zombies in the west than for NATO to lose a 20-year war such as in Afghanistan and Syria. The Yankee vassals will lose elections one by one in Europe, and finally in North America and Oz. G7/NATO/5-eyes/ will be content being one of the many poles around the globe, likely by 2030!!!

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 4 2023 19:48 utc | 93

This ends when the West collapses. In the meantime, we will all have to endure the death throes of a wounded titan.

The elections will change nothing. The bureaucracies have spent decades building up their powerbases, and even firing 100,000 US bureaucrats won't alter the trajectory of things.

Apologies to everyone who thinks the world can be improved in one day at the ballot box. It's an excellent idea, but a delusion nonetheless.

Nuland isn't going anywhere. And even if she was removed entirely, there are thousands more ready to take her place.

At one point, a diseased tree must be uprooted and the remains burnt so the blight doesn't spread to the rest of the orchard.

The Western colonial/neoliberal agenda will only stop when it can no longer pay the bills, which is why Russia and the Global South are so clever to re-align economically. That's the one vector the West is weakest at and done properly, it doesn't have to cost any civilians' lives.

I am so pleased by Putin and his quiet determination to stay the course, like a fighter getting his opponent in a chokehold, knowing a tap-out is inevitable if the hold can be maintained long enough.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 4 2023 19:51 utc | 94

Revelo | Oct 4 2023 17:05 utc | 51
*** Russia could even give Ukraine back Donbas and Crimea and maybe even half of south Russia into the bargain, provided Ukraine has no military and Russia effectively controls who runs Ukrainian government. "Giving" land back while seizing permanent control of the government would be a bold propaganda move because it would cause peasant-mentality types to think Ukraine had won the war with such an outcome. Unfortunately, there are also peasant-mentality types in Russia (and this forum) who might think such an outcome means Russia lost, and therefore this bold move might be ruled out for Russian domestic political reasons. But it would be a great way to reconcile the Ukrainian peasantry with Russia.***

An extremely stupid and dangerous idea. If I was in charge of Russia and someone came in and suggested it, they'd assuredly never be able to suggest anything again.

Posted by: Cynic | Oct 4 2023 19:52 utc | 95

I do believe Russia's mind change regarding its wish to join Asia rather than tolerate Western arrogance, prejudice, and condescension is for real. I think they've had enough. Beside, their vast Eastern spread of land is rich in mineral, water resources, and black soil.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 4 2023 19:54 utc | 96

Off Topic: This will be my last post on Man Made Climate Change debate. To absolutely defeat the idea of anthropogenic induced climate change.

For those who wish to be enlightened on this topic kindly please go to the 24 minute mark of this Joe Rogan (#606) podcast with Randall Carlson (its 8 years old but its a start for the newbies with recent revisionism on this issue) who will prove with 12,000 year old ice samples from Greenland the folly of such thinking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0Cp7DrvNLQ

Posted by: canuck | Oct 4 2023 20:05 utc | 97

As b says it may be fatigue, and there is certainly a lot around. However, the motives for the original plan, that of opening hostilities and sanctions together in 2022, were essentially financial. ie. Rip Russia apart to loot and regain the "rebel" oblasts as functional investments for outsiders.

Have the hidden financial parasites got what they expected or are they beginning to realise that the coming period will not allow them to cash in and recover their original investments?
*

There are signs that some firms-funds now may want a way out, or at least to stop the hemorrhage. The FT article mentioned by bubbles above (€186 billion for Ukraine from the EU Commission, if and "when" it joins the EU - but paid for by the usual plebs), will actually go to support the Corporate takeover of Ukraine. (Blackrock, Cargill, Vanguard) as they will be the on the receiving end as newby owners, and in the case of Blackrock the real deciders of how the money is "allocated".

The US now seems to want to "pull-back" from being the major supplier of arms. The diminishing amounts of money and cash now mentioned are usually in the form of loans using Ukraine as collateral. It will expect to be repaid and return a profit above that realized from arms sales. By pulling-back now, does it expect to gain time to reorganise it's productive capacity and build up new stocks? It will avoid "boots on the ground" if it can, as this is "cheaper". A Blinken phrase also repeated recently by the Dutch defense minister.

The EU has been designated as the golden goose who will not only pay for the future of the conflict, but also supply arms and eventually men and women. Most of the "leaders" of the EU and the Commission obviously consider themselves as a part of this NWO, and act their roles in the unfolding tragi-comedy.
*

I estimate that there will only be a superficial change in the appearance of the teams involved, and that any intermediate negotiations or "agreements" will be like all the others. (Minsks) Nothing burgers, time wasters and dishonest.
*

On the other hand, the secondary level of hostilities, de-dollarization, de-Nazification etc. for the Russians, and generalized mayhem by the US in any country that might want ties with the BRI or China and Russia, will continue to expand. The CIA alone has many thousands of operatives that could be brought in.

This second level "war" is the one that both sides must win.

"Ladies and gentlefolk; Place your bets, rien ne va plus"

Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 4 2023 20:08 utc | 98

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 4 2023 15:06 utc | 7:

I certainly want the shit show to end as soon as possible and am seeing fellow Americans paying attention to the world spinning is ways they never did so before....not saying clearer, but more focus.

Ending the shit show too soon may not achieve the psychological change in western populaces that will drive the world towards multipolarity sans a thermonuclear war. For Ukies and the NATO west it is indeed a shit show. For the Russians it is a crusade towards hoisting themselves lateral to or even above their western neighbors. Yes, they suffered casualties, but crusades are not free--it always come with a price. I suspect Russian casualties are on par with NATO mercenaries, advisers, or trainers, or may be even undercover NATO soldiers outright, not to mention the poor Ukie 18-40 year olds.

Looking at western fumbles and gripes of late, I think the west will beg for an end to this shit show soon, as China predicted a few months ago.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 4 2023 20:10 utc | 99

It will be interesting to see if Ukraine makes it through the winter. The electric grid has been so degraded by continual bombardment it’s amazing that it’s still functional – a testament to Ukrainian engineering know-how (and the strength of spit and glue). But there is a limit. All of that is USSR equipment – it’s not like GE or Siemens can crank out a batch of transformers with the right specs. Ukraine had a few (3?) factories making transformers that were nationalized but even before the war there was a huge shortage and now those factories are not exactly in the best shape. I think the Baltics donated some transformers and related supplies but it’s not enough. There’s really only one place to buy that stuff – Russia.

Winter will be interesting. Particularly if it’s colder than usual. I hear Jack Frost is one helluva a negotiator.

Posted by: Sudsie76 | Oct 4 2023 20:13 utc | 100

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