Two Middle East Outlooks
Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor and dimwit, had written a laudation of his own and his bosses foreign policy for the November print edition of Foreign Affairs. The piece was finalized before the war in Palestine had begun.
The Sources of American Power
A Foreign Policy for a Changed World
Excerpts:
Indeed, although the Middle East remains beset with perennial challenges, the region is quieter than it has been for decades.The progress is fragile, to be sure. But it is also not an accident.
...
[The president's] approach returns discipline to U.S. policy. It emphasizes deterring aggression, de-escalating conflicts, and integrating the region through joint infrastructure projects and new partnerships, including between Israel and its Arab neighbors. And it is bearing fruit.
...
This disciplined approach frees up resources for other global priorities, reduces the risk of new Middle Eastern conflicts, and ensures that U.S. interests are protected on a far more sustainable basis. Challenges remain. The Israeli-Palestinian situation is tense, particularly in the West Bank, but in the face of serious frictions, we have de-escalated crises in Gaza and restored direct diplomacy between the parties after years of its absence.
Alastair Crooke, who has personally negotiated prisoner exchanges between Hamas and Israel, has published a rather bleak outlook.
Escalations Cannot Be Stopped – The White House Is Rattled; Escalations Might All Fuse Into ‘One’
The reality of the necessity of war is permeating widely the consciousness of the Arabic and Islamic world.
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It is no coincidence that Netanyahu flourished a map of Israel during his General Assembly address last month in which Israel dominated from the River to the Sea – and Palestine (indeed any Palestinian territory) was non-existent.Tom Friedman in his NYT reflections may fear that just as NATO’s impaired performance in Ukraine has ruptured ‘the NATO myth’, so too the 7 October Israeli military and intelligence collapse and what happens in its wake in Gaza ‘might explode the entire pro-American alliance structure’ in the Middle East.
The confluence of two such humiliations might break the spine of western primacy. This seems to be the gist to Friedman’s analysis. (He likely is correct).
Hamas has succeeded in smashing the Israel deterrence paradigm: They were not afraid, the IDF proved far from invincible, and the Arab street mobilised as never before (confounding western cynics who laugh at the very notion of there being an ‘Arab Street’).
Well, that is where we are – and the White House is rattled.
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This is what worries the White House Team. They are deeply unconfident that an Israeli invasion of Gaza will put ‘Humpty’ together again. Rather, they fear that events may go badly for the IDF, and further, that the images relayed across the Middle East of Israel using overwhelming force in a civilian urban setting will revolt the Islamic sphere.In spite of western scepticism, there are signs that this insurrection in the Arab sphere is different, and resembles more the 1916 Arab Revolt that overthrew the Ottoman Empire. It is taking on a distinct ‘edge’ as both Shi’a and Sunni religious authorities state the duty of Muslims to stand with Palestinians. In other words, as the Israeli polity becomes plainly ‘Prophetical’, so the Islamic mood is turning eschatological, in its turn.
That the White House should be floating kites about ‘moderate’ Arab leaders pressing ‘moderate’ Palestinians to form an Israeli-friendly government in Gaza that would displace Hamas and impose security and order shows just how severed is the West from reality. Recall that Mahmoud Abbas, General Sisi and the King of Jordan (some of the region’s most pliable leaders) pointedly refused even to meet with Biden after the latter’s Israel trip.
The anger across the region is real and threatens ‘moderate’ Arab leaders, whose room for manoeuvre is now circumscribed.
So hotspots are proliferating, as are attacks on U.S. deployments around the region. Some in Washington claim to perceive an Iranian hand, and are hoping to expand a window for war with Iran.
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Should Israel enter Gaza (and Israel may decide it has no choice but to launch a ground operation, given the domestic political dynamics and public sentiment), it is likely that Hizbullah will incrementally be drawn further in, leaving the U.S. with the binary option of seeing Israel defeated, or launching a major war in which all the hotspots become fused ‘as one’.In a sense, the Israeli-Islamic conflict now may only be resolved in this kinetic way. All efforts since 1947 have seen the divide only deepen. The reality of the necessity of war is permeating widely the consciousness of the Arabic and Islamic world.
Posted by b on October 27, 2023 at 13:44 UTC | Permalink
next page »Dmitry Medvedev writes:Israel keeps postponing its ground operation in Gaza. Mostly under pressure from the United States and fearing global anger.
But do not flatter yourself. The operation will take place, and will result in the most serious bloody consequences. Moloch always demands more and more victims, and the machine of mutual violence will now work for years.
In addition, the West is very tired of Ukraine. And he enthusiastically took up the support of Israel. Even the new speaker of the US House of Representatives, Michael Jackson (sorry, Mike Johnson, although what difference does it make), called helping Tel Aviv his first business.
Or maybe it's better to resume the Middle East settlement process and finally try to implement UN Security Council Resolution No. 242 of 11/22/67? Or even the original Plan for the partition of Palestine, adopted on November 29, 1947 by UNGA Resolution No. 181?
Those questions are, of course, rhetorical. After all, it is much more interesting to divide the loot for someone else's war away from the USA. The war must go on…
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/70553
Posted by: Down South | Oct 27 2023 13:59 utc | 2
Nothing will happen except the decimation of Gaza and possibly its reoccupation by Israel, the deterioration and possible destruction of hard-won Syrian stability, and the further long-term isolation of the US and Israel.
Iran will not engage unless directly attacked and even then might not engage fully. Russia will do nothing. Neither will China. Arab states are useless pawns whose populations can be mollified by statements and symbolic gestures.
Nobody wants to set off the trip wire unleashing the resentful wrath of the dying empire.
Posted by: WJ | Oct 27 2023 14:03 utc | 3
Sobering and rational analysis.
Bringing an ethnoreligious element into the analysyis is not only inaccurate, it gives war hawks all they need to inflame the population: “Them” (Arabs, Muslims, Palestinians) vs Us.
Let’s be clear: we are all about our own survival first and foremost.
The countries surrounding Israel are horrified by the scale of the violence because they are HUMAN and because they realize that if Israel gets away with this, they will be NEXT. Nothing to do with your ethnicity or where you pray.
American policy making is not done based on who is Catholic and who is Baptist. That’s a game of NATOstan media to frame Arabs as being concerned about that. First and foremost, any leader of a Middle East country other than Israel is most worried about staying ALIVE.
Israel is a colonial project. Worse, it is an apartheid and supremacist colonial project. The state of Israel explicitly brings “ethnicity” into their supremacy. On the flip side, those fighting colonial occupation are fighting colonial occuption. End Of.
We keep hearing about “moderate” Arabs, Hillary’s “moderate” rebels.
“Moderate” is code for Controlled By Us.
We never hear about radical violent Zionism, the Palestinian right to self defense, the Palestinian right to have an army other than the Palestinian (Paragliding) "Airforce, teaching Israelis how to “share” etc.
All of the more sober and rational voices including those by Ritter etc. to my mind overemphasize the religious and ethnic element.
I am not Muslim and have no ethnic or religious connection to that region of the world.
Yet I am horrified and have been for 30 years by NATO governments destroying countries to try and get stuff. This is no different. There are a ton of secular and Christian Palestinians. Hezbollah’s charter explicitly includes the protection of Christians. It's just about resisting intolerable conditions.
Posted by: pq | Oct 27 2023 14:13 utc | 4
Palestine the Arab revolt..
https://www.britannica.com/place/Palestine/The-Arab-Revolt
very interesting happenings posted on Russian times.
Israel bombing everything but Hamas in Gaza Jackson Hinkle
https://www.rt.com/news/585948-israel-forcing-palestinians-out-hinkle/
1. "The true goal of the operation is to force Palestinians out of the enclave..""
<=supports my thesis:the forced evacuation is about denying Palestinians benefits from offshore Lavante Reserve gas field and pipeline connecting the gas to Italy, Europe through Greece Turkey. Is Russia to Greece Turkey Europe Turkish Stream..next?
2."Hungary and Slovakia opposed a €50 billion ($52.8 USD) aid package for Ukraine.Thursday," "Orban .Ukrainians w\n win on the front lines.Putin w\n go away".
https://www.rt.com/news/585951-nato-states-blocked-ukraine-aid/
3. New Israeli law? allows police to use live fire v. protesting Israeli citizens".
https://www.rt.com/news/585947-israel-police-live-fire/
4. China to snub Zelensky’s ‘peace’ meeting in Malta – Bloomberg
https://www.rt.com/news/585952-china-snub-zelensky-peace-summit/
5. Biden must explain Ukraine endgame – [Mike Johnson, new House speaker] American people “are demanding some real accountability” for billions allocated to Kiev, https://www.rt.com/news/585926-biden-ukraine-aid-endgame-republicans/
6. A rift .. between the Neyanyahu and military leadership delays invasion source calls NYT says it..
https://www.rt.com/news/585930-netanyahu-gaza-plan-nyt/
7. https://www.rt.com/business/585942-russia-interest-rate-hike/
8. <= 240 pg Health Ministry Report 6,747 people killed by Israel’s strikes since Oct. 7
https://www.rt.com/news/585929-gaza-names-biden-israel/
9. Two different secret Israeli bases in Eritrea ..attacked. source southfront
Posted by: snake | Oct 27 2023 14:14 utc | 5
Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor and dimwit. B perfect comment and true...Bad actor also. He couldn't sell air.....
Posted by: Dennis17 | Oct 27 2023 14:17 utc | 6
"Dimwit" to describe Jake Sullivan is an excellent choice of words. Bernhard always surprises, few write so well in non-native languages.
Sullivan unfortunately is probably the brightest of the current staff. The rest are genuine dullards. Sullivan's background is as Hillary's toady, he has spent so much time saying the immediately opportune thing to powerful and witless auditors he may be genuinely confused as to what is real.
Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 27 2023 14:22 utc | 7
Forgive my skepticism but I think, "anything goes and nothing matters" gets closest to the truth. Military experts ( who would be credible in a more sane time) have little or nothing predictive to offer because of the bizarre ( meh) mindset of the West.
Examples: the mighty US loses to goat herders after 20+ years of fighting. Reaction? Ho hum.... Ukraine loses Bakhmut after hyping it to the skies, then loses the counteroffensive and is losing in Avdeevka. Collapse? Nah. Israel loses diplomatically across the globe. That and $3 gets you coffee at Starbucks.
The biggest one of all is a national contest between two elderly men with mental problems who lie habitually. And no one seems to notice or care. Japan goes on decade after decade by printing money and doing shell games with its economy.
If a future headline read, "Last Ukrainian dies" (or Gaza resident), the followup would be 'and in other news cute kittens now available at SPCA this week'
How does this ever change? I guess people have to starve, freeze, or die. Given the increase in US homelessness in major cities, I'm not sure that matters either. Maybe a future bankrupt US uses a stolen credit card to buy a couple bombs to drop on some brown people somewhere it decides are terrorist helpers.
Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 27 2023 14:26 utc | 8
Here's a Times of Israel article that might be of interest to some, detailing strange military activity by Hamas on the Gaza border, as reported by IDF soldiers stationed there, that seemingly didn't heighten IDF alertness/alarm/or readiness: https://www.timesofisrael.com/surveillance-soldiers-warned-of-hamas-activity-on-gaza-border-for-months-before-oct-7/
Posted by: Ludo | Oct 27 2023 14:26 utc | 9
9. Two different secret Israeli bases in Eritrea ..attacked. source southfront
Posted by: snake | Oct 27 2023 14:14 utc | 5
That was surprising.
I wouldn't have pegged Eritrea for a stooge of Zion.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 27 2023 14:29 utc | 10
Great find on Sullivan's inane article, that deserves more study. As for Crooke's piece, sadly I can't agree. While Israel and the White House are indeed genuinely rattled, so far it isn't clear that things have shifted enough on the Arab street. "Moderate" Arab regimes have always functioned as crumple zones to absorb anger at US/EU/Israeli action, and so far they are still funcitoning as designed. There is a risk that will fail as this goes longers and gets worse, but we aren't there yet.
Posted by: Bob | Oct 27 2023 14:31 utc | 11
Also from the Alaister Crooke piece:
‘The internal ‘myth’ holds that the Israeli State ‘has its citizens back’, wherever Jews live in Israel and the Occupied Territories – from the remotest settlements, to the alleyways of Jerusalem’s Old City. This is more than a social contract; rather, it is a spiritual obligation owed to all Jews living in Israel.
This ‘social contract’ of safety however just collapsed. The Kibbutzim in the Gaza envelope are evacuated; twenty kibbuz have been evacuated from the north, and a total of 43 border towns have been evacuated.‘
Posted by: Moses22 | Oct 27 2023 14:42 utc | 12
Indeed the dynamics are changing rapidly. The rise of China and Russia as the driving force beyond Western narrative is allowing other countries more room for maneuver. It is increasingly obvious to anyone who bothers to study modern history that Israel is fundamentally a creation of the West built on Palestinian land that was imposed by the combination of US, UK, and Germany under the influence of Jewish pressure. The Global South including Russia and China are not burdened by such influences or historical baggage. If one reads the Reader's comments section of NYT and WaPo, it is obvious that even English readers are dramatically changing. Perhaps there is hope for a free Palestinian State afterall.
Posted by: ConfuciusNow | Oct 27 2023 14:44 utc | 13
In 1990 I remember the pundits saying the entire Arab world would explode if the US took Kuwait back. It did not happen.
In 2001 I remember the same if the US invade Afghanistan. It did not happen.
In 2003 I remember the same if the US invade Iraq. It did not happen.
It's very easy to talk apocalypse. The question is how many people want it.
Not very many, it always turns out.
Posted by: Alexander P | Oct 27 2023 14:49 utc | 14
Eighthman. This is so true! People in this country seem to be less and less interested in anything. They vote for which ever party they have voted for in the past using the same lines they used before. If we don’t win the world will end under the other guy. Our local media no longer does much but sports. National media does what the MICMAT wants. And the people still think they are being told the truth.
even my peace group went south because you know Russia. China! BAD guys. No one had ever been to either country or new anything about either country. But it goes beyond that in some ways I think people see our government doesn’t really care if we protest, if we call, if we scream, because they do not work for us and haven’t from Reagan and Clinton who manage to completely give the ownership of the country to the MICMAT. The UNI PARTY
Posted by: Susan | Oct 27 2023 14:50 utc | 15
Here's a Times of Israel article that might be of interest to some, detailing strange military activity by Hamas on the Gaza border, as reported by IDF soldiers stationed there, that seemingly didn't heighten IDF alertness/alarm/or readiness: https://www.timesofisrael.com/surveillance-soldiers-warned-of-hamas-activity-on-gaza-border-for-months-before-oct-7/
Posted by: Ludo | Oct 27 2023 14:26 utc | 9
I'm starting to think the IDF wouldn't show up even if they were sent an invitation...
"Dear IDF, you are hereby invited to a grand event on the gaza strip october 7th RSVP"
Posted by: newbie | Oct 27 2023 14:52 utc | 16
From RT:
Israel to pass law allowing state to kill its own citizens – mediaPolice officers will only require permission from their commander to shoot at protesters
I'm sure all of Europe is salivating to pass such laws.
Posted by: Michael A | Oct 27 2023 14:57 utc | 17
Posted by: snake | Oct 27 2023 14:14 utc | 5
Nice list for today.
Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 27 2023 14:59 utc | 18
My impression is the US has bombed some militia in Syria for purely internal US politics, to show the Biden administration is acting forcefully and aggressively. There does not seem to be any thoughtful external politics involved. How the rest of the world reacts does not seem to matter.
Posted by: Passerby | Oct 27 2023 15:01 utc | 19
The 'Mexican stand-off' between all the military forces assembled in and around Israel could be set off by an unpredictable spark. Alistair Crooke correctly describes how a panicked White House has overreacted.
Threatening the survival of the hostages is a lynchpin in Israeli hands. The internal dynamics of Israel demand revenge and they need to be addressed by responsible leadership which is lacking. In the meantime there will be more surface destruction of Gaza from the air, remote bombardment and 'daytrips' by Israeli armor (at night).
There is still plenty of room for more sternly worded, angry letters. The only good outcome is a two-state solution. Genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza will dissolve all American influence built up for a long time in the Middle East.
Sullivan, that dimwit (great choice of words) might be grasping some of it. Blinken is an incredibly arrogant SOB and perhaps, only friends and family in the neocon world can make him see a better light. Here is to waiting, impatiently.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 27 2023 15:01 utc | 20
Three somwhat disconnected thoughts about this whole situation:
1. There is a general assumption that the Russian Mig31/Kinzhal patrols over the Black Sea were put in place as a counter to US carriers in the East Mediterranean. However, I see another potential role: pinning down Israel's nukes. Kinzhal's bunker penetrating abilities have already been demonstrated, and I don't find it inconveivable that Russian intelligence a) knows where Israel keeps their nuclear weapons, b) knows the scenarios in which they would be used, and c) perhaps is even somehow able to listen-in on the decision-making. I haven't seen this discussed anywhere (apologies if this has come up here at MoA, I haven't been able to follow comments lately).
If I am right, and the Mig31/Kinzhal Black Sea patrol can/are indeed a counter to Israel's nukes, what would be the implications?
2. US is clearly preparing for war. But there are also increasing signs of an impending economic collapse, some saying it may be just around the corner. Assuming these predictions are true, and looking at the binary option described by Mr. Crooke: how does this economic collapse - and its timing - figure into this choice?
3. At Naked Capitalism, there was some good discussion about why Israel has delayed its ground offensive against Gaza: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/10/israels-coming-attack-on-gaza-boundary-conditions-and-delay.html
To me, it looks like the attack on October 7th was an "Announced Checkmate", and what we see now is the panic that sets in after the realization that defeat has become inevitable. Every move appears to have its counter already in place. Does anyone else here think this might be the case? If not, why not?
Posted by: Palm & Needle | Oct 27 2023 15:05 utc | 21
Since its illegal inception as a colonial state in 1948, the Zionist regime is comparatively a continuation of the fascist crimes that were committed by Nazi Germany against Jews – the difference being that the newer victims are the Palestinians.
Hence my new favorite term for the Zionists: Zionazis. It's not a mere epithet, but rather a historically accurate characterization of the RC in Israel, once the target of the Nazis and now fully adopting the supremacist world view and barbaric methods of it's former persecutors.
What makes this most recent manifestation of Nazi ideology so dangerous is that it has US imperialism and all western media cast it's crimes as legitimate internationally.
Hitler would be jealous.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 27 2023 15:09 utc | 22
Jake Sullivan has been a Washington Democrat insider for a long time, as is seen in his remark in a leaked e-mail to Hillary Clinton in 2012 that "[Al Qaeda] AQ is on our side in Syria".
Posted by: Brendan | Oct 27 2023 15:10 utc | 23
@3 & @14
You are both right, nothing will come of this, it will go on for as long as it will go on, probably until Benji can go back to his people and tell them he has killed 10-20 times as many of them as they killed Israelis. It is very clear that it is open season on Syria, we can all postulate on why that is but for whatever reason, it will be continuously bombed, and nothing will happen. We have to be honest, the US has been defacto fighting Russia for almost 2 years now and if you don't think that the 'war' is at some level an exercise in 'kabuki', you're not paying attention. We always hear that this will lead to WW3 or that will lead to WW3 or WW3 will happen in 10 years, or we're going to run out of money and you can't just keep printing money and the stock market is here or there, it's all noise. I've been hearing it for over 50 years and the only constant is that the people at the top stay there and they get wealthier and wealthier and amass more and more power.
I don't see Russia, China or Iran getting involved, Iran is literally the biggest 'smack talker' out there but it does very little and I don't think Xi or Putin are going to do anything either, not unless they is directly attacked (which they wont be). The land is the prize in Ukraine and I wont be surprised if Big Agriculture are in there once the barrels have cooled, Putin will do nothing to stop it, some part of the Ukraine will be annexed to the west and the east will go to Russia. Will Putin have stopped the west's expansion, not really, but he'll have a military 'victory' to sell at home and an end to the conflict, everyone will buy into it because life goes on.
Their game is not to destroy the planet, and while I would say that the combination of stupid people and Nuclear weapons could get us to that point, most of them are far too cowardly to go down that road, they like their cars, houses, boats, women/men and the ability to look down at the 'little people', far beneath them. I have no doubt that they want to get rid of a large portion of the world's population, they say that part out loud, but I don't think it will be by means of a Nuclear war. It will be slower and 'cleaner', I'm sure I don't have to go into any great detail.
This will go away, and probably quite soon, and then, guess what, something else will replace it, some other pigeon 'end of the world' calamity to perpetuate the endless divide and conquer.
Posted by: Bob Hopkins | Oct 27 2023 15:11 utc | 24
I have been waiting a lifetime for the civilization war we are watching blossom and never thought I would see such.
Those that think this is just building to another do-nothing or stalemate have not been paying attention.
To those that have been following the civilization war progress, here we are at the point where the God Of Mammon cult bully goes down w/o human extinction or not......it is way past time in some minds.
Is humanity going to continue to live in a top/bottom world controlled by those that own global private finance and everything else? The RoW is coming together to say, NO MORE!
Here is a toast to the evolution of our species beyond barbaric patriarchy!!!!
Blessing to you b for everything you have done for humanity these past years.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 27 2023 15:11 utc | 25
WJ: "Nothing will happen except the decimation of Gaza and possibly its reoccupation by Israel, the deterioration and possible destruction of hard-won Syrian stability, and the further long-term isolation of the US and Israel.
Iran will not engage unless directly attacked and even then might not engage fully. Russia will do nothing. Neither will China. Arab states are useless pawns whose populations can be mollified by statements and symbolic gestures. "
Not so fast buddy. It is almost a certainty that once the IDF pursues their client, Hamas, there will be an (unfortunate, sure) avalanche of collateral damage in Gaza... amounting to an Israeli "Final Solution to the Palestinian Question"... that will force Hezbollah to unsheathe 100,000 missiles and rockets down on the Israelis. That, in turn will trigger US intervention (hence the carrier groups now in the Mediterranean)... which may very well drag in Turkey... while the US finally gets its War on Iran. That brings in Russia and China, the latter of which is very vulnerable to food and fuel deliveries through Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
Posted by: posa | Oct 27 2023 15:11 utc | 26
Posted by: pyrrhus | Oct 27 2023 14:57 utc | 17
Israel, by no way has a low birth rate, it's much higher of that of western countries.
It'lower than that of the Palestinians.
Posted by: Mario | Oct 27 2023 15:13 utc | 27
Sullivan, that dimwit (great choice of words) might be grasping some of it. Blinken is an incredibly arrogant SOB and perhaps, only friends and family in the neocon world can make him see a better light. Here is to waiting, impatiently.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 27 2023 15:01 utc | 21
Honestly I think Blinken and Sullivan are just toadies of Nuland and Kagan. They'll have a change of heart when Nuland and Kagan do, which is never.
The whole lot needs to be stripped of power, by whatever means necessary, to avert WW3.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 27 2023 15:16 utc | 28
Posted by: WJ | Oct 27 2023 14:03 utc | 3
Posted by: Alexander P | Oct 27 2023 14:49 utc | 14
Perhaps you are correct. That said, the world is a different place now, even compared to just 20 years ago. Crooke’s belief that it is not possible to return to the status quo ante this time seems to hold water to me. What will replace that remains to be seen. I think much of the world, in particular the states the West has consistently antagonized, sense weakness. There may be no better time to strike a blow, keeping in mind all the horrific potential consequences that would attend such action.
Posted by: KMRIA | Oct 27 2023 15:16 utc | 29
Nobody wants to set off the trip wire unleashing the resentful wrath of the dying empire.
Posted by: WJ | Oct 27 2023 14:03 utc | 3
So they're not dying at all then. The real reason is that everyone knows their place, from Russia to China. They will gladly accept anything as they did before and still do today. Don't forget Kiev is much safer than Moscow, that is all you need to know about who is "dying"
Posted by: rk | Oct 27 2023 15:17 utc | 30
[email protected] was a time when populations were controlled, molded by print (post Town Cryer). Only the 'smartest' could access it. It morphed to moving pictures with sound, one, or millions of one's could sit idly, for hours, tuned out, and numb. On a sadder note, people are now controlled by small, hand held devices. One, 'xcuse the off colour banter' can now, tune in, and dumb down (in the most literal sense) while one swipes ones ass in the Privy Lou. Adds new dimension to, from the cradle to the grave......
Cheers M
As an example of moulding, the Harper PCs in Canada would run political adds and play Oh! Canada as the background music. Now credit were credit is due, it wasn't in the populaces face, but subliminal, flute version, orchestral versions, but the message was clear. For as long as I've been here 50yrs, no party has done that. In house Beavers can correct if they so wish. But difinetly subliminal manipulation of the population. Turned my stomach. But not to be out done the sitting Libs are doing the same thing.
On a 'patriotic' note, no National Anthem should be affiliated with any policical party. Okay, in dictatorships like Canada, they do, and if short some cash, they'll even freeze the bank accounts of old women, pregnant mothers, and cripples in wheel chairs.....and sonit goes.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 27 2023 15:18 utc | 31
osted by: Moses22 | Oct 27 2023 14:42 utc | 12This ‘social contract’ of safety however just collapsed. The Kibbutzim in the Gaza envelope are evacuated; twenty kibbuz have been evacuated from the north, and a total of 43 border towns have been evacuated.‘
Possibly indicating areas Israel will be ceding in future negotiations. And there will be negotiations.
So many ME States joining BRICS+ has made the old ways of operating unworkable since they can no longer split the region into endless factions against each other.
This whole business, I suspect, is just a way for them to get the best deal possible. Using violence as leverage. It's how they think, what they do. Materialists are suckers for physical force.
But it's still rearguard action. Most of the US military presence may well be to protect their bases. Because there is a good chance they won't be able to keep them in the region soon. Why should they? What are they for? Once the region comes together, one of the first items on the agenda should be to ask the Yankees to go home. Pronto!
The tide has turned.
Posted by: rk | Oct 27 2023 15:17 utc | 30
About Kiev much safer than Moscow you have got my really loud laugh. 🤣🤣🤣
Posted by: Mario | Oct 27 2023 15:23 utc | 33
Al Ahli Arab Hospital bombing investigations
I want to thank Diagonal for creating a page on the bombing of the al Ahli Arab Baptist Hospital in Gaza on our ACLOS research wiki, and for writing his own blog on the topic. (From the previous thread:)
I have now found some concrete supporting evidence for my theory that an Israeli Air Force Boeing GBU39 (FLM) smart glide bomb hit Al Ahli hospital. (Focused Lethality Munition)Video from the early morning after shows two pieces of debris beside the crater that would match wing parts of the GBU39
https://nevergonnabelievethis.net/2023/10/24/what-hit-al-ahli-hospital-in-gaza/
http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Talk:Al_Ahli_Hospital_Bombing
Posted by: Diagonal | Oct 26 2023 20:19 utc | 170
I commented on the topic yesterday, before noticing his work.
Also note the new video by Michael Kobs, partly based on findings by me and Adam Larson.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Oct 27 2023 15:24 utc | 34
Please, titles must be in proper order when describing a public figure.
Sullivan is dimwit (but aren't they all, starting with the Chief; a fish rots from head down) and Ntl Security Advisor.
As for Thomas Friedman and his book From Beirut To Jerusalem, about his rites of passage through the Middle East, there is another similar title by Dr Ang Swee Chai, founder of British based Medical Aid for Palestine. The volunteer doctor had an epiphany during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the Shatila Sabra massacres 1982 that shed light the vile nature of the Zionist entity. Similarly the scales are falling from the eyes of the world with the fresh horrors and looming genocide in Gaza.
Posted by: LittleWhiteCabbage | Oct 27 2023 15:25 utc | 35
From the point of view of Israeli domestic politics, Netanyahu's actions have not only blown up Israel's vaunted myth of invincibility, which stoked weapons sales to other countries seeking similar powers, but has also figuratively blown up pipeline deals for energy transport as well. Even before the Gaza incident, anticipating acceleration of Israel-Palestine conflict, Chevron (who purchased Noble Energy, one of three partners in the Leviathon project, the others being Delek, Ratio - private companies owned by Israelis) closed the controversial Israel-Egypt pipeline, rerouting to the Jordanian/Egypt FAJR pipline. The Turkey, Saudi, Israel pipeline is dead in the water. Finally, if and when, Netanyahu gains control of the part of the Leviathan field currently owned by Palestine, it may well be a Pryrric victory: The world is swimming in oil- BRICS+/GCC/ASEAN, now politically fused against Israel may strongly consider sanctioning Israeli energy while geopolitics would suggest that Israeli pipelines are simply too risky owing to being targets for any and all parties enraged at the Gaza genocide. Actions provoke reactions and Iran, China and Russia play very, very effective long games. US appears incapable...
Posted by: abierno | Oct 27 2023 15:27 utc | 36
MichaelA 17
"Israeli citizens of Arab origin could block army convoys in case of a military escalation with the Palestinians or with Lebanese armed group Hezbollah"
They are not israelis who might demonstrate.
Posted by: KingCobra | Oct 27 2023 15:28 utc | 37
Note: both Hamas and Hezbollah are sending out raiding parties often. The IDF has lost nearly 10% of its MBT strength in the last 20 days.
Posted by: Exile | Oct 27 2023 15:28 utc | 38
Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 27 2023 14:26 utc | 8
Not picking on the original poster.
"Beaten by goatherders" seems to be the new in crowd hip phrase these days.
May I point out that these so called "goatherders" of Afghanistan managed to beat the British Empire twice, booting their asses out for good, and fought the Russians and Americans, resulting in their departures, one ignominiously.
There is a reason why Afghanistan is called the Graveyard of Empires. Hegemons would do well to learn the phrase.
Posted by: morongobill | Oct 27 2023 15:29 utc | 39
reply to 27
It's true, Israel has a remarkable birthrate. However, this could doom it. It's the ultra Orthodox making the babies and generally they don't want to be soldiers or even gainfully employed. They want to study Torah all day and let someone else pay the bills. They are a demographic disaster in the making. They don't like real education either. Their fanaticism may drive more secular Israelis out of the country.
Long term, "Israel" may lose or cease to exist because of who makes the babies. This situation has been going on for decades with no clear solution.
Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 27 2023 15:30 utc | 40
Again, the complement to Crooke's essay is his talk with Napolitano where much is repeated, but more is added.
Palm & Needle | Oct 27 2023 15:05 utc | 22--
Very curious list: #1 is quite possible; #2 is a certainty as was detailed immediately after 7 October in an article at The Cradle that I further commented upon. The Zionist economy is very fragile which is why it's combatted the efforts to boycott its products so fiercely while enlisting the aid of its EU and Outlaw US Empire allies to help in that effort; thus, informing us of its potential effectiveness.
The demographic issue is also very important as noted by pyrrhus | Oct 27 2023 14:57 utc | 17. I liken it to what's happened to the Aral Sea which is slowly evaporating into nothing. That's also why the Zionists can't afford to lose too many of its too few young people in a war of attrition, which is what an invasion of Gaza will become and is clearly part of Hamas's strategy. I don't have any figures to cite, but since 7 October an exodus is occurring as those who can leave are doing so, and with that is capital flight. Also, the conflict will deter the importation of the "guest workers" Occupied Palestine must have to keep its economy afloat. So, it's not just Gaza that's under siege, and the longer the conflict continues, the worse it will be economically for all, not just Palestinians.
William Schryver thinks this is the build up to US war with Iran:
https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/aces-and-eights
I hope that he's wrong, but it is exactly the kind of stupid plan that I expect from the neocons.
Posted by: team10tim | Oct 27 2023 15:33 utc | 42
Follow up, if the US does go to war with Iran then all western attention will be diverted and Gaza will be back page news. It will give Netanyahu a free hand to do anything he wants in Gaza while the western media are focused on the war with Iran.
Posted by: team10tim | Oct 27 2023 15:36 utc | 43
Here is a link to a new Will Shryver post on the buildup in the eastern Mediterranean. He is quite concerned and thinks that there is a chance that the US might try to take out the Russian bases in Syria.
https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/aces-and-eights
Money quote:
"Therefore I am increasingly persuaded that any massive US attack against Iranian surrogate forces in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq will almost certainly include a simultaneous attack against the Russian air and naval bases in Syria."
Posted by: morongobill | Oct 27 2023 15:37 utc | 44
The truly terrifying thing about the Biden administration is that the manifestly mentally non-competent (at times) President of the United States is excellent cover for the even more manifestly non-competent advisers around him.
I use non-competent because incompetent is an insufficient word for these morons.
An incompetent is unable to discharge fiduciary duty; a non-competent is not only unable to discharge, but charges to the literal worst outcome.
And so 4 aircraft carriers are heading for the Middle East in a transparent "stealth" mobilization by a US administration which has already demonstrated, repeatedly, that it is agreement incapable, that it lies incessantly, that has zero interest in anything that isn't 100% aligned with said regime's ludicrous views and which is literally capable of anything.
Posted by: c1ue | Oct 27 2023 15:39 utc | 45
How short, and also how long, Israel’s warfighting plan will take depends on American and international acceptance, not only of the genocide intended for the Palestinians of Gaza, but of the Novichok-type chemical warfare planned by the IDF and the Pentagon for the Hamas tunnel system in Gaza City. After several years in which the US and UK have fabricated claims that Syria and Russia were using prohibited gas warfare weapons, the Israelis have reportedly persuaded the US to participate in the tunnel attac
Posted by: ld | Oct 27 2023 15:41 utc | 46
On Occupied Palestine demographics, this page is very educational. Of course, its projections don't include war and exodus. Do note the rising median age. I also wonder if that page includes all those residing within Occupied Palestine since the Palestinian birth rate is much higher, almost double, that of the Zionist.
Where did my post go?
Did I hit Preview and then neglected to hit Post?
Do I try again?
Posted by: librul | Oct 27 2023 15:47 utc | 48
For years, decades, american foreign policy was designed precise to prevent a coming together of it's two principal rivals: China and Russia. As you all have seen, incompetentence at the US dept of State has not only not prevented this, but has driven it both countries into each others arms - literally. Stupid america now faces a single unified foe in China and Russia. Likewise, the Shia and Sunni Islamic sects, once bitter foes, now have also come together to oppose the genocide that israel - copiously assisted by the US, is conducting in Palestine. Two serious foreign policy boo boos that will have serious adverse affects for the 'indespensible' US. america simply cannot help itself when it comes to making enemies ... world wide. Not only is the present american geriatric administration of Joe Biden entirely incompetent, it is supremely dangerous. Not by intentional act, but rather by stupid, not-thought-out policies.
Posted by: rgl | Oct 27 2023 15:50 utc | 49
Posted by: Michael A | Oct 27 2023 14:57 utc | 17
Note it says protesters, meaning Palestinians, not own citizens (Israeliani Jews).
Posted by: Mario | Oct 27 2023 15:51 utc | 50
To me, it looks like the attack on October 7th was an "Announced Checkmate", and what we see now is the panic that sets in after the realization that defeat has become inevitable. Every move appears to have its counter already in place. Does anyone else here think this might be the case? If not, why not?
Posted by: Palm & Needle | Oct 27 2023 15:05 utc | 22
If Israel had some sanity that would most likely be the case. It seems the only option left for Israel is to negotiate best possible (for Israel) two state solution.
..............
Protracted war and turmoil in the region that shut down Persian Gulf oil would be in US favor.
Only Russia would be immune to the economic fallout that would cause. US could likely get off lightly, but China would be hit hard, a major set back for its economy. Much of the rest of the world even harder hit than China.
As we have seen, The US is trying to sabotage China's economy rather than trying to compete economical. It policy has been about setting back other economies rather than improving its own.
For Russia China and the global south, the two options appears to be
1) Two state solution as the only peaceful solution.
2)Failing a Two state solution, end war and turbulence in the region quickly which inevitably means deletion of Israel. Whatever Jews left would be Palestinians rather than Israelis.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 27 2023 15:51 utc | 51
https://sluggerotoole.com/2023/10/27/the-british-created-a-mess-and-then-cleared-off/
Interesting article comparing Ulster and Palestine
Posted by: Cloned Poster | Oct 27 2023 15:52 utc | 52
Posted by: Ludo | Oct 27 2023 14:26 utc | 9
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++/+++++
Israelis want Netanyahu out by end of next week. His birthday present coming late.
Posted by: AI | Oct 27 2023 15:53 utc | 53
The Arab revolution is not on the attack, capitalism is.
Stalin writing on the British general strike of 1926 rightly concluded that the strike was caused by the provocation of the British Conservatives.
100 years on and the same tactics are being used.
However, while the tactic worked in 1926, workers were stabilised and lost much of their power, the current crisis has many more leading actors and is now a global dilemma.
Who knows how this situation will pan out in the end, a global war or a ceasefire. My money's on a ceasefire and the stabilisation of the gaza population for a few more years.
The provocateurs of olde England still have the odd trick up their sleeve.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Oct 27 2023 15:53 utc | 54
https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/aces-and-eights
Nuff Sed.
Posted by: Nuff Sed | Oct 27 2023 15:54 utc | 55
@karlof1 | Oct 27 2023 15:31 utc | 41
The Zionist economy is very fragile which is why it's combatted the efforts to boycott its products so fiercely while enlisting the aid of its EU and Outlaw US Empire allies to help in that effort; thus, informing us of its potential effectiveness.Many of the the 70 young victims (22. July 2011) in Stoltenbergs labour party had displayed banners the days before, saying "Boycott Israel".
Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 27 2023 15:55 utc | 58
Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 27 2023 15:30 utc | 40
So what?
It's their problem if they only base their existence on military power and then they have not enough soldiers. 😉
Posted by: Mario | Oct 27 2023 15:55 utc | 59
Posted by: WJ | Oct 27 2023 14:03 utc | 3
"Nothing will happen"
Everything already did happen. The global shift of perception is very deep and in all Nations. The masks are falling. An d those most relying on masks are most affected.
Posted by: Azghadi | Oct 27 2023 15:58 utc | 61
@our jentle host B.
I'm rather tired of the copy posts of another 9/11, they don't add anything to the discussion so why not to ban him?
Posted by: Mario | Oct 27 2023 15:58 utc | 63
"Why should anyone be surprised that decades of oppression by the Zionist regime led to an explosive eruption of anger? It has happened in the past, and, as long as human beings are oppressed and brutalized, it will happen in the future. Those who suffer oppression cannot be expected during a desperate rebellion, when their own lives hang precariously in the balance, to treat their tormentors with tender-hearted courtesy. Such rebellions are often marked by acts of cruel and bloody vengeance.
Many examples come to mind: the Sepoy mutiny in India, the uprising of the Dakota Indians against the settlers, the rebellion of Boxers in China, of the Hereros in Southwest Africa, and, in more recent times, the Mau Mau uprising in Kenya. In all these cases, the insurgents were denounced as heartless murderers and demons, and subjected to brutal retribution. Decades, if not a century or more, had to pass before they were belatedly honored as freedom fighters.
In explaining the causes of the American Civil War, which resulted in over 700,000 deaths, Lincoln spoke of the tragedy as the consequence of 250 years of slavery, and invoked the words of Matthew: “Woe unto the world because of offenses, for it must needs be that offenses come, but woe to that man by whom the offense cometh.” In the case of the Palestinians and the people of Gaza, the offense has come from the Zionist state and its imperialist patrons.
The long history of Zionist massacres of Palestinians, without which the State of Israel could not have been founded, is excluded from the condemnation of Hamas and the Palestinians. Even events as recent as the gunning down by Israeli soldiers of over 200 Gazans in 2018 as they demonstrated peacefully on their side of the border is kept out of the media narrative."
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/10/26/mich-o26.html
Some good history in this recent speech. Worth a look.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 27 2023 16:01 utc | 65
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 27 2023 15:11 utc | 25
"I have been waiting a lifetime for the civilization war we are watching blossom and never thought I would see such."
Within your timely observations, did you ever consider how you would survive such a war, or is that not the problem?
Posted by: Andrew | Oct 27 2023 16:01 utc | 66
@c1ue | Oct 27 2023 15:39 utc | 45
And so 4 aircraft carriers are heading for the Middle East in a transparent "stealth" mobilization by a US administration which has already demonstrated, repeatedly, that it is agreement incapable, that it lies incessantly, that has zero interest in anything that isn't 100% aligned with said regime's ludicrous views and which is literally capable of anything.Aircraft carriers are obsolete against a peer adversary, they are sitting targets. So sending 4 aircraft carriers to this region makes you think a Gulf of Tonkin-style event is being prepared. Or should we upgrade to "Pearl Harbor" style event?
Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 27 2023 16:01 utc | 67
@our jentle host B.
I'm rather tired of the copy posts of another 9/11, they don't add anything to the discussion so why not to ban him?
Posted by: Mario | Oct 27 2023 15:58 utc | 63
Agreed. Total crap.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 27 2023 16:02 utc | 68
The U.S. “airstrikes” cannot be classified as “self-defence”. They are more properly labelled “deterrent”, and therefore of dodgy legality. It is not clear if these were the result of stand-off missiles, or fired from aircraft. If the latter, it would be of some interest to identify which airfield they originated. Hosting U.S. airfields will soon be a problem for certain Arab states if these assets become involved in kinetic activities.
The notion that October 7 was a LIHOP scenario seems now put to rest, as there hasn’t been a consistent or sustained “plan” by either Israel or U.S. - they appear to be improvising and over-compensating in their rhetoric. The possibility of bad results - such as a shut-down of energy flows i.e. Hormuz - lurks behind every decision.
Posted by: jayc | Oct 27 2023 16:02 utc | 70
And yet nothing happens, what if the US forces are just there to pause everything until nothing happens?
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 27 2023 13:57 utc | 1
--------------------------------------------------------------
Then nothing happens. But hasn't enough happened already, what do you want? A nuclear war in the ME? Perhaps the benefit of avoiding a ME war will be a renewed vigor and insistence for diplomacy by the very same Arab leaders that will give the Palestinians an independent State.
After all, it is the very same Arab leaders who have been kissing the US ass for the last 50 years that have the most to lose if the ME goes upside down.
Posted by: Ed | Oct 27 2023 16:03 utc | 71
@Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 27 2023 16:02 utc | 68
b doesn't like the theory thus he lets him (not me) post about it.
Posted by: librul | Oct 27 2023 16:03 utc | 72
Every time I see Jake Sullivan during White House press conferences I mistake him for a grade B TV comic actor or maybe an advertising spokesperson pitching some kind of hokum.
Posted by: Wilikins | Oct 27 2023 16:11 utc | 73
Posted by: pq | Oct 27 2023 14:13 utc | 4
################
I believe the religious element is essential to account for.
In the West, among secular people, the idea of examining motivations in order to understand capabilities is almost nil.
We just look at any Western leader and go, "Bad person". We never discuss that they lack a moral foundation, or belong to a community that has particular ethical standards.
I think Orthodox Christianity is important when discussing Russia, and yet this community almost never discusses religion regarding the SMO. In the Middle East, religion touches on everything and everyone, even those who are atheists living in the region.
I do understand that secular people may find religious discussion silly or irrelevant, but that is not how any of the parties involved in this current Palestine/Israel situation feel. Not accounting for the Islamic perspective on martyrdom can only lead to underestimating the scope of this conflict.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 27 2023 16:13 utc | 74
Note it says protesters, meaning Palestinians, not own citizens (Israeliani Jews).
Posted by: Mario | Oct 27 2023 15:51 utc | 51
Certainly. And it gives any of the better jews good reason not to protest either (against the Gaza genocide, or vaccines like they did a few years ago, etc).
And who's to say if a pile of dead people was protesting or not?
Now they have both the Hannibal thing and this new thing to kill their own civilians. I'm sure lots of countries are taking notes.
Posted by: Michael A | Oct 27 2023 16:13 utc | 75
karlof1 | Oct 27 2023 15:31 utc | 41
It is becoming plainer by the day that the small military operation by Hamas truly cut the Gordian knot. As we see now, unstoppable forces have been released.
For Palestine it is now a matter of surviving whatever is to came as once it is over they will be a sovereign state free of Israeli rule bit through a two state solution or the complete disappearance of Israel.
Jerusalem and the region as a center point for three major world religions plus Persian Gulf oil make the middle east one of several center point in the post WWII era.
That said, great change in the region mean great change in the world/change of Era.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 27 2023 16:15 utc | 76
Great catches, b!
Jewed-up Jake could have saved himself, and us, a lot of ennui-filled time by standing next to a grand piano, with a lady pianist dressed as a Viking, slipped into falsetto, and squealed:
Oh-oh, yes, we're the great pretender.
Pretending that we're doing well.
Our need is such, we pretend too much.
We're lonely, but no one can tell.
Oh-oh, yes, we're the great pretender.
Adrift in a world of our own.
We played the game but to our scam shame
You've left us to grieve all alone.
Too real is this feeling of make-believe.
Too real when we feel what our heart can't conceal.
(Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh)
Yes, we're the great pretender.
Just laughin' and gay like a clown.
We seem to be what we're not, you see.
We're wearing our dick like a crown.
Pretending that We're still around.
Too real is this feeling of make-believe.
Too real when we feel what our heart can't conceal.
(Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh)
Yes, we're the great pretender.
Just laughin' and gay like a clown.
We seem to be what we're not, you see.
We're wearing our dick like a crown.
Pretending that We're still around
(Still around)
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 27 2023 16:16 utc | 77
Stop attribute to incompetence that which is so obviously explained by malice
Posted by: jef | Oct 27 2023 16:17 utc | 78
Posted by: WJ | Oct 27 2023 14:03 utc | 3
"Nothing will happen"
Everything already did happen.
Posted by: Azghadi | Oct 27 2023 15:58 utc | 61
The American Mind can only conceive of world events through the lens of a Hollywood Action Blockbuster.
If it didn't ALL happen in a 90 minute movie reel at high volume with special EFX it's not happening.
Oblivious to the changing of deep political currents, the slow shifting of tectonic cultural plates they imagine that their alliances remain stable.
Oblivious - even dismissive of the gradual technological advancement of even their most primitive victims they imagine they will always be confronted by spear-bearing savages shooting crude wooden arrows.
Dismissive of the rise of new economic powers, even while those powers shine for all to see, they imagine that they have total control over the flow of currency across the globe.
These shifting currents are slow, but inexorable and undeniable. They are missed completely by the ADHD Empire whose attention to anything strains beyond the ten-second sound byte, the constant breathless action-sequence of horror followed by violence followed by orgasm followed by the meaningless euphoria of the imperial ego.
Eventually the movie must come to and end and the Empire of ADHD will be left alone in a dark and desolate studio watching the credits roll by on a blackened screen ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 27 2023 16:18 utc | 79
It took people months and years to wise up to September 11 ... and Gaza?
Posted by: librul | Oct 27 2023 16:19 utc | 80
Ahenobarbus | Oct 27 2023 16:01 utc | 65--
On the previous Palestine thread, there was a comment by country_blumpkin | Oct 27 2023 14:01 utc | 404 that said in part:
"1. Are armed pogromists who systematically murder and steal land under protection of the military "non-combatants"? If so, how should their victims keep from being pushed off of their land?"
To which I replied:
"Regarding your point #1, I'm reminded of a slew of John Wayne and other Westerns dealing with that same scenario, particularly 1965's Sons of Katie Elder--the bad guys take over the town and the new sheriff or outraged citizens or both combine to right the wrong and reestablish justice. Another is the classic Seven Samurai also known as The Magnificent Seven--are the gunfighters hired by the townspeople to be considered terrorists or freedom fighters? IMO, their actions differ little from those of Hamas."
IMO, Hamas in the eyes of Arabs and the Global Majority differs very little from that of John Wayne and his co-stars in that classic Western movie and those that were very similar. I also think the comparison is also seen by many older people in the West who were raised on that film genre.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Oct 27 2023 15:09 utc | 22
Hence my new favorite term for the Zionists: Zionazis. It's not a mere epithet, but rather a historically accurate characterization of the RC in Israel, once the target of the Nazis and now fully adopting the supremacist world view and barbaric methods of it's former persecutors.What makes this most recent manifestation of Nazi ideology so dangerous is that it has US imperialism and all western media cast it's crimes as legitimate internationally.
Hitler would be jealous.
Treffer, versenkt.
Posted by: persiflo | Oct 27 2023 16:20 utc | 82
b wrote: "Well, that is where we are – and the White House is rattled.". I wonder what the economic fall of the US looks like? Any guesses?
Posted by: AI | Oct 27 2023 16:20 utc | 83
Fucking Maericans. Cradle to grave fed a myth of their own superiority.
May I point out that these so called "goatherders" of Afghanistan managed to beat the British Empire twice
Tell me more about the mighty British Empire air force. And satellites. Clearly the 18th century technology is equivalent to modern Maerica amirite.
Before the Maerican intervention Afghanistan was on track to be a modern state (1979) with equal rights for women. Your criminal and boorish governments embrace of the Mujahideen to 'give Russia their Vietnam' in the words of Berezensky, put an end to that.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 27 2023 16:24 utc | 84
IDF planned a security failure but their plan to limit the damage was botched.
Posted by: librul | Oct 27 2023 16:28 utc | 85
Posted by: Bob Hopkins | Oct 27 2023 15:11 utc | 24
################
That was a very myopic view trapped in a Western perspective. Which is the perspective that is leading the West to yet another defeat.
Learn from other cultures. I know it is difficult because they seem alien and America is the Greatest Nation there ever has been 😂😂😂
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Oct 27 2023 16:32 utc | 86
Then nothing happens. But hasn't enough happened already, what do you want? A nuclear war in the ME? Perhaps the benefit of avoiding a ME war will be a renewed vigor and insistence for diplomacy by the very same Arab leaders that will give the Palestinians an independent State.
After all, it is the very same Arab leaders who have been kissing the US ass for the last 50 years that have the most to lose if the ME goes upside down.
Posted by: Ed | Oct 27 2023 16:03 utc | 71
I don’t want anything in particular to happen.
Just wondered if the too big to be a trip-line and too big to lose in an invasion. An invitation for everybody to stay put if they don’t want WWIII.
At the beginning I said gunboat diplomacy, just wondering if there isn’t a different objective, just freezing things.
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 27 2023 16:32 utc | 87
Andrew | Oct 27 2023 16:01 utc | 66
Have you ever considered How our children, Grandchildren ect will survive in the west if the path of the oligarch/elite ruled west is not changed because that would mean a very bleak future for them.
Post WWII/cold war era was very good for ordinary people in the west. General prosperity vastly higher than the majority of the globe. That began to Change around 1980. General prosperity of the ordinary people began to erode. 9/11 gave the chance to remove freedoms enjoyed by the ordinary people which was a big part of why it was good to live in the west. And those freedoms are being taken away constantly though the post 9/11 period. Every 'crisis' is used to remove more freedoms.
As for the Palestinians, any freedom for the future generation in the west means surviving the great change required. That change can only occur through great economic hardship or war.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 27 2023 16:33 utc | 88
Apologies..my previous post was unnecessarily hostile. You are of course right about the moniker of Afghanistan. But Maerica has spent the last 4 decades fighting counterinsurgencies. They seem to have forgotten counterinsurgency isn't war.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 27 2023 16:33 utc | 89
"...The only good outcome is a two-state solution..." Acco Hengst@20
That really isn't possible any more. To achieve that balancing act would have taken serious and sincere negotiations. Instead we had deceit, lies and bribery.
Two states implies the preservation of the development of a Jewish only state with, presumably, a non Jewish mirror image state.
There is a reason why "two states" is the default position to which those who collaborate with Zionism return- the solution seen is the PLA writ large, a permanent Mahmud Abbas-type surrounded by an Israeli paid and trained police force to keep the people in line.
As to the alternative, it is not so much a one State solution as a confederation in which various provinces with local autonomy are joined at the top in a Levantine Federation occupying the lands currently constituted as Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and possibly Kurdish provinces in Turkiye and Iraq.
The region, after all, is one with a dozen or more major blocs, some religious, some ethnic like the Alawi, the Druze, the Lebanese Christians (of several rites) , the Bedouin, Kurds etc etc as well as the Jews, secular, religious, Ashkenazi, Sephardic, and, of course the Sunni muslims and the shiah.
The opposite of the ethnic cleansing of 'Arabs' is not the persecution of non Arabs but the ending of attempts to achieve political, racial or religious purity.
Posted by: bevin | Oct 27 2023 16:36 utc | 90
@Posted by: librul | Oct 27 2023 16:28 utc | 85
A general wanted a little extra damage so Netanyahu would be gone, but the general got more than he expected (?)
Posted by: librul | Oct 27 2023 16:37 utc | 91
As we speak, dozens of underweight babies on life support incubators are about to die in Gazan hospitals as the fuel for electricity generation runs out on the strip.
This is no Kuwaiti "incubator story", this time it's real.
This, my friends is what "Western Values" looks like.
This is it's net result.
This, the sum and total of all your endless tomes of cleverly reasoned 'Law'.
Your libraries on Ethics and Morality.
Your erudite monologues on 'international law'.
Your endless pontifications on the 'laws of war'.
This is what it all boils down to.
This is it's end result.
As goes Gaza, so goes Mankind ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 27 2023 16:38 utc | 92
Given that Turkey is miffed at the US for its unconditional support of Israeli genocide in Gaza and sides with most of the Arab world against Israel, and the possibility that Turkey, a NATO country, and the US could end up in a war over this, the likelihood that Turkey is going to reverse course now and open up the Strait for passage of US warships into the Black Sea is very low.
Posted by: Mike R | Oct 27 2023 14:10 utc | 84
---------------------------------------------------
On 19 February 1915, British and French ships began a naval assault on the Dardanelles. The fighting culminated in a heavy setback for the Allies on 18 March due to large losses from Turkish mines. Military landings on the Gallipoli peninsula followed on 25 April. Contained by the Ottoman defenders, a new assault began on 6 August. Each fresh attempt was defeated, and by mid-January 1916, all Allied troops had been evacuated and the attack on the Dardanelles abandoned.
[https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/a-short-history-of-the-dardanelles-campaign]
Rinse and repeat, some different players?
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 27 2023 16:38 utc | 93
Jake's speech reminded me of a Bing Crosby(?) song from when I was a kid in the 1950s. It was about a bloke called O'Sullivan (he was a mighty man).
Anyhow, O'Sullivan was so-o tough that he could shove his left hand into his back pocket and hold himself out at arms length!?
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 27 2023 16:42 utc | 94
Excuse me while I get apocalyptic on everyone’s arse.
The Apocalyptic version of control of minds and hearts of the Old Roman Empires lands , which took the Judaeo version of that and installed in Rome as the Holy Roman Empire - allowed the continuation of control over the majority in the Western European landmass by a minority , who were able to retain their authority and wealth through divine right as the direct representatives of the Crazy , Mad as Hell, Jealous God - meanwhile excusing all depravity of the chosen lineages of Popes and Monarchs.
Obviously most shapeshifted from Judaea to Rome taking their ‘tribes’ with them.
Let’s not kid ourselves the people of the desert would rather have lived in the climate zones which guaranteed great agricultural bounty. Fresh water and plenty of protection. They took over and the Holy Roman Empire was born.
They carved themselves away from the rest of humanity and the cradles of civilisation and progress by humanity over tens of thousands of years. If not hundreds of thousands.
Let’s also not forget the basic archaeological evidence, that we current humans have had the same physiology for over half a million years. Same dexterity and same brain size. Any ancient man birthed by ‘science -fiction ’ from some dna would just as easily be able to learn what any baby born today would.
The only things that have changed over that period is the technology - from particular foods and agricultural practices to a greater understanding of science and technology as the ages pass.
That’s just HUMAN.
Many ancient civilisations have disappeared without much of a trace , obviously cataclysmically. But whether it be from below the Earths surface or more likely Above!
The planets orbit, as the Solar System orbits something and that to orbits something else…, and there are many such regular paths being crossed. Asteroids, comets, planets even! There might be some signal retained by fortuitous survivors - we know there are totally vanished civilisations- the Indus Valley one for example.
So back to what the Romans Did For ‘Us’ - they created that myth of the Garden, The Original Sin and the Cane and Abel story to enshrine that Great Divide - and then set course to take over the whole world by the marshalling of the Dumb, Ignorant ‘peasants’ into being the foot soldiers that put their Clogs on all these distant lands and allowed for massive depredations of these foreign populations and lands. Even as these ancient peoples welcomed them as peoples from the Sea in need obviously. They were actually welcoming conquistadors from the Holy See!
See?
Apocalyptic thought has been bred into our Abrahamic religions. It has been used to control us. There were always stories in recent decades of such crazies in control of the western world and its apocalyptic nuclear weapons - now encompassing biological and chemical WMD’s. All of which are an obsession of Our Western World , in pursuit of that old old goal of total control of humanity by some Human gods who live in their high palaces and are to be worshipped.
Well the ‘Wheel has Turned’ - the ancients have had enough of the never ending barbarity of our Western European Enfante Terribles. It’s taken a thousand years or so , and the final Holy Roman European spawned Empire , actually Zionist like all the European Ones, from day One - The USA. A tool of the old as is easily identified by all the rigmarole and Masonic symbolism that has run none stop for two Millenia.
That Two is an obvious clue - what else can be a clear sign of the hubris then declaring a YEAR ZERO?
Come on people please please just see such obviousness.
It’s not just the dumb belief of the chosen who will be raised and to meet their loved ones again at the End of Days, there being a massive disconnect between all who believe such different versions that makes it so dumb. It’s the massive failure to see through that over its thousand - two thousand year lineage - a mere blip in the history of Humanity’s existence never mind the Planets.
As I say that does not rule out historic memory of regular catastrophes that can destroy 99.99% overnight! The only way to deal with such longterm cycles for humanity is to survive better each time and ultimately to spread through the Vastness of Space.
We dont need to reverse to a Golden Billion we need to breed more towards the Stellar Trillions within a few more thousand years - so that even if whole planets are destroyed , Humanity and Life from Earth persists.
What is more important than that? Certainly not a fairytale of a resurrected immortality.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Oct 27 2023 16:43 utc | 95
@ team10tim 43
"if the US does go to war with Iran then all western attention will be diverted and Gaza will be back page news. It will give Netanyahu a free hand to do anything he wants in Gaza while the western media are focused on the war with Iran."
If US-Israel start a war with Iran, Gaza will be the least of Israel's worries because that will be a huge war with at least an invasion from Hezbollah, and 100,000 missiles raining down. Israel will not have soldiers to spare for Gaza. In WW2, the Nazis didn't waste Wehrmacht soldiers to massacre civilians; they outsourced that to the Ukrainian Banderas. Israel can't outsource. The destruction and BTW, the defeat of the West will be so total that the Israelis will be apologizing profusely and denying around all the harm they did to Palestinians.
Let me focus you onto this detail: If Hezbollah invades Israel, the IDF will switch everything they have to face that formidable army, the one that defeated them in 2006. The IDF would probably do triage and allow Hamas to run rampant until (and only if) the IDF can fight off Hezbollah.
Big picture: Hundreds of bombed-out US military bases, dozens of sunk US warships, some Arab dictators overthrown (probably by lower-level military officers), the world economy massively hurt because no oil would get past Hormuz, and ordinary Americans hating "the Jews" "because of treason", etc. And that's the less unpleasant scenario, the one where we don't get a nuclear war.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Oct 27 2023 16:44 utc | 96
Posted by: Just Another 9/11 | Oct 27 2023 15:49 utc | 49
How many times is this going to be posted? I think we get it by now. Two weeks nonstop for Christ's sake.
Anyways, a blackout has been instituted in Gaza. It seems as if the ground invasion is about to commence. This is not verified, but there has been an unprecedented wave of airstrikes on occupied Gaza for the last half hour, apparently more than any night before.
We should remember that the 13th Battalion and other spec ops teams have already attempted reconnaissance of Gaza and have been "shot to pieces," based on various claims, including Douglas MacGregor.
No doubt, we may see the apex of Gaza's struggle very soon.
Posted by: warxism | Oct 27 2023 16:48 utc | 97
In response to
"
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 27 2023 15:11 utc | 25
"I have been waiting a lifetime for the civilization war we are watching blossom and never thought I would see such."
Within your timely observations, did you ever consider how you would survive such a war, or is that not the problem?
Posted by: Andrew | Oct 27 2023 16:01 utc | 66
"
You write that question like you believe you and the rest of us are living in some sort of paradise instead of the top/bottom perversion we live in.....let me repeat Peter AU1's good reply to you
"
Andrew | Oct 27 2023 16:01 utc | 66
Have you ever considered How our children, Grandchildren ect will survive in the west if the path of the oligarch/elite ruled west is not changed because that would mean a very bleak future for them.
Post WWII/cold war era was very good for ordinary people in the west. General prosperity vastly higher than the majority of the globe. That began to Change around 1980. General prosperity of the ordinary people began to erode. 9/11 gave the chance to remove freedoms enjoyed by the ordinary people which was a big part of why it was good to live in the west. And those freedoms are being taken away constantly though the post 9/11 period. Every 'crisis' is used to remove more freedoms.
As for the Palestinians, any freedom for the future generation in the west means surviving the great change required. That change can only occur through great economic hardship or war.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 27 2023 16:33 utc | 88
"
I encourage you to think about the fact that we at the bottom of our social species pool do not even get to know who the real God Of Mammon cult are that rule us.....but maybe you really believe the bastardized motto of the US "In God We Trust".
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 27 2023 16:49 utc | 98
Learn from other cultures. I know it is difficult because they seem alien and America is the Greatest Nation there ever has been
LoveDonbass | Oct 27 2023 16:32 utc | 86
That is very strong in the people about me and why the last decade of propaganda has greatly affected them. Certainly here in Australia, the post WWII era has been very good. The lucky country. Very low crime, reasonable average prosperity, reasonable to good medical care and education.
Those about me can only think this is due to our culture, system of governance and so forth. But even those that travel to a country with different culture do so on travel tours rather than simply booking a flight and making their own way around from there. Going on a travel tour, they are largely isolated from the culture they are visiting.
My main regret at this time of life is that I did not travel a lot more when able to do so to see and get some understanding of the many cultures different to my own. Many videos posted to the internet now that show many different cultures. Not dedicated culture video as they are as worthless as tits on a bull, but those posted by locals, those posted by travelers - sometimes travelers traveling as I would do, foodie channels and suchlike.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 27 2023 16:54 utc | 99
@Posted by: JessDTruth | Oct 27 2023 16:44 utc | 96
Russians don't bluff. I wonder if Putin has a (private) red line for Israel - the use of even one - one - nuke anywhere.
Posted by: librul | Oct 27 2023 16:54 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
The anger across the region is real and threatens ‘moderate’ Arab leaders, whose room for manoeuvre is now circumscribed.
Posted by b on October 27, 2023 at 13:44 UTC
And yet nothing happens, what if the US forces are just there to pause everything until nothing happens?
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 27 2023 13:57 utc | 1