Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

News & views (not related to the wars in the Ukraine or Palestine) …

Western media start to note how their politicians' unwavering support for Israel and Ukraine is diminishing their countries' global standing.

At Naked Capitalism Yves Smith notes the devastating political effects of the Gaza bombing on Biden's foreign policies:

Biden Gets Zelensky Treatment in Middle East as Israel Tries to Escalate

The US, in a continued demonstration of the degree of enbubblement of what passes for its leadership, seems to believe it still has the force and soft power to be able to bully talk its way out of its geopolitical messes. Yet this week we have stunning examples of how critical players in the rest to the world no longer buy what the US is selling. The gap between the American establishment’s connection to reality and facts on the ground has opened up to a yawning chasm as the Arab world, as Jordan cancelled a Biden summit with its King Abduallah II plus PLO chief Mahmoud Abbas and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in response to Israel’s shelling of Al-Ahli Arab hospital. Not only are they rejecting the attempt to shift blame for the attack to Hamas (we’ll soon address the “rogue shell” claim), but also the bigger pretense behind that, that the US is incapable of, as opposed to unwilling to, applying the choke chain to Israel.

Even the Western media are not much on board with the Israeli and Biden Administration pretense that somehow Hamas dunnit, when Israel has been trying to herd Palestinians out of northern Gaza and specifically attempted to order the evacuation of the hospital. Oh, and this follows Israel ordering the UN to evacuate from Gaza in 24 hours and then shelling its warehouse there: …

Israel bombed, probably with a U.S. made Hellfire missile, the courtyard of the Baptist al-Ahli Arab hospital where thousands had sought refuge. A short video of the immediate aftermath shows several dozens if not hundreds of dead and wounded. Doctors later held a press conference while standing among some of the casualties.

Like other hospitals al-Ahli Arab had been told by Israel to evacuate but could not do so as there are no other places where the sick and wounded, including many intensive care cases, could be cared for.

Three days earlier, notes the UN, the same hospital had, like others, already been bombed:

14 October 2023: In Gaza city city and governorate, Ahli Arab Hospital was hit by Israeli airstrikes, partially damaging two floors and damaging the ultrasound and mammography room. Four people were injured. Sources: Al Jazeera V and Personal Communication

To then claim, as Biden did, that 'the other team' was responsible for the attack is unfathomable.

It was also way too late says a RUSI fellow:

Going to repeat this as the situation has moved more in the past 16 hours than in the previous week.

The plates have shifted, radically. The window for Israeli operations has shrunk from more than a month, to a few days…if at all.

That is now the reality of where we stand.

No country besides the U.S. and a few Europeans will ever defend such barbarity. They will simply stop listen to what the 'west' has to say.

The Financial Times quotes a G7-official who struggles with this global divide:

Rush by west to back Israel erodes developing countries’ support for Ukraine (archived)

Cont. reading: West’s Pro-Israel Position Accelerates Its Loss Of Power

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

It seems that the U.S., despite denial, had already delivered long range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. It was promptly used to destroy a Russia helicopter base:

ayden @squatsons – 12:09 UTC · Oct 17, 2023

The AFU used the MGM-140B ATACMS Block 1A (M39A1) ballistic cluster missile to strike the Berdyansk airfield earlier today.

This missile contains 275-300 M74 submunitions and is capable of hitting targets at a range of up to 300 kilometers. The very submunition was found at the airfield.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

The U.S. has recently moved way too many troops to the Middle East to be of peaceful purpose or to simply deter others from action.

Who does it intend to fight?

Arms Airlift to Israel, Bombers in Jordan, Two Carriers: U.S. Deploying More Forces to Mideast – Haaretz

Last week, the United States deployed the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford and its strike group to the eastern Mediterranean. The USS Ford carries about 80 combat aircraft, electronic warfare and intelligence planes. It is accompanied by five advanced missile-guided ships, armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of hitting targets inside Iran. According to satellite images, the USS Ford is about 180 kilometers south-west of Cyprus. P-8 maritime reconnaissance aircraft with anti-submarine, anti-ship capabilities are patrolling around the group.
…
Over the weekend, a second carrier strike group, led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, was dispatched to the Eastern Mediterranean and is due to arrive later this month.

Each carrier strike group also includes one or two submarines. Next to various support planes each carrier has a ‘wing’ of fighter planes consisting of four squadrons with 12 fighter jets each.

There is more …

Cont. reading: U.S. Deploys Large Force – Eyes On Syria

Only for news & views directly related to war on Gaza.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

To read:

• The roots of Israel's ethnic cleansing in Gaza – Aaron Mate
• Israeli forces shot their own civilians, kibbutz survivor says – Electronic Intifada
• The Gaza Bombshell (How Hamas came to rule Gaza) – (April 2008) – Vanity Fair
• Lawless in Gaza: Why Britain and the West back Israel’s crimes – Jonathan Cook / Unclassified UK

> The siege of Gaza’s 2.3 million Palestinians, imposed by Israel in 2007 following the election of Hamas to rule the enclave, allowed for all sorts of experiments.

How could the population best be contained? What restrictions could be placed on their diet and lifestyle? How were networks of informers and collaborators to be recruited from afar? What effect did the population’s entrapment and repeated bombardment have on social and political relations?

And ultimately how were Gaza’s inhabitants to be kept subjugated and an uprising prevented? <

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

• October 9 – WSJ Joins Neocons To Instigate War On Iran
  Related:
  – The Iranian interest in the Israeli-Hamas war – Gilbert Doctorow
  – The Israeli war on Hamas from a geopolitical perspective – Gilbert Doctorow
  – 'Freezing' Iran's humanitarian fund is self defeating – Responsible Statecraft

• October 10 – Egypt Claims It Warned Israel Of Upcoming Attack
• October 10 – Israel Confesses War Crime
• October 11 – U.S. Plans To Ethnically Cleanse Gaza
• October 13 – The Split In Israel And The War Of Al-Aqsa
• October 14 – Pro-Israel Propaganda Is Stupid
• October 15 – Arnaud Bertrand – How Israel Stepped Into A Trap
  Related:
  – US intelligence warned of the potential for violence days before Hamas attack – CNN
  – Israelis blame gov’t for Hamas massacre, say Netanyahu must resign – poll – Jerusalem Post
  – Stunning State Department Memo Warns Diplomats: No Gaza 'De-Escalation' Talk – HuffPost

  – ‘Netanyahu is finished’ – Sy Hersh via John Maenadue
  – The end of the Netanyahu doctrine – Responsible Statecraft

  – An Invasion of Gaza Would Be a Disaster for Israel – Foreign Affairs
  – Israel will end up the biggest loser if it launches another ground invasion – Rai Al Youm
  – Israel-Palestine War: US Faces Catastrophe in Middle East! (vid) with Alastair Crooke – New Rules

  – Settlers take advantage of Gaza war to launch West Bank pogroms – 972
  – Wider War in Middle East Could Tip the World Economy Into Recession – Bloomberg
  – As Israel readies Gaza invasion, US sees no plan for what’s next – Bloomberg via TBSnews

  – Rooting for Israel, Not a Good Word About Palestine: Modi Is Upending Indian Foreign Policy – The Wire
  – 10 reasons why India’s stance on Gaza is unsustainable – Indian Punchline
  – Netanyahu is an albatross around India’s neck – Indian Punchline

• October 11 – Ukraine SitRep: Storming Andivka – Ukrainian Losses
  Related:
  – Ukraine, Allies Push to Avoid Stalemate as Headwinds Grow – WSJ via MSN
  – Pentagon's 'FrankenSAM' program cobbles together air defense weapons for Ukraine – ABCNews
  – ‘Bottom of barrel’: Ukraine’s counteroffensive at risk from US aid delays (archived) – Financial Times

  – Michael Brenner: Defeat – Scheerpost
  – Neocons Have Lost Ukraine And They Will Continue Anyhow | Dr. Michael Brenner (vid) – Neutrality Studies
  – Ex-Zelensky aide calls for new government in Ukraine – RT

• October 12 – Clowns Of Brussels
  Related:
  – “Fuck it, wipe out Gaza,” says spokesman for new EU campaign – Electronic Intifada
  – Western diplomats are walking an impossible tightrope with Israel (archived)- Financial Times
  – As von der Leyen visits Israel, is the European Commission overstretching its powers? – Irish Times
  – The displacement of von der Leyen in Israel causes a new storm in the EU (in French) – Le Figaro
  – Von der Leyen does not speak for EU on Israel-Hamas conflict, foreign policy chief says (!!!)- Irish Times
  – The outside world must walk Israel back from the abyss. It cannot be part of the choir of incitement – Irish Times

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-238

by Arnaud Bertrand
(Republished with the author's permission)

One of the more interesting arguments I've been seeing A LOT on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is: "Hamas undoubtedly predicted Israel's massive retaliation, that makes them all the more guilty for sacrificing Palestinian lives".

What people don't realize is that the fact this reaction – the massive collective punishment – was indeed immensely predictable says just as much about Israel than it does about Hamas.

It says a lot about Israel for 3 reasons. 1) It says a lot about Israel's image that it was expected to react with massive collective punishment, violating international law. 2) It also says a lot about Israel's inability to think strategically that it would react in exactly the way its adversary predicted it to. Revenge is not a strategy, in fact it is the opposite of strategic. And, lastly 3) it says a lot that Israel doesn't seem to have learned a thing from the US's immense mistakes in its post 9-11 response.

Yes, of course, it also says a lot about Hamas, because they knew their actions would undoubtedly cause untold suffering on their own people (on top of the suffering they caused with the attacks). No question there.

This looks to be, unfortunately, a competition for whom can gain the most sympathy from the outside world for their suffering. And from where I am standing, Israel is losing big time by playing into the hand of its adversary. Even Europe – Europe! – is on the verge today of breaking ranks with a full-on revolt at the highest levels of the bureaucracy against Von Der Leyen for her unqualified support for Israel. This is on top of renewed support for the Palestinian cause by the Muslim world, and generally the entire global South (with the notable exception of India, who pretty much runs on Islamophobia today under Modi).

I'm going to go out on a limb here and hypothesize that this was Hamas, as an organization, committing suicide for the Palestinian cause. Hamas undoubtedly won't survive this, it's pretty clear. And sadly thousands of innocent lives will be lost. But they've focused the entire global conversation on their topic and Israel's reaction is making Palestinians win the sympathy war.

Cont. reading: Arnaud Bertrand – How Israel Stepped Into A Trap

It is somewhat amazing how low the quality of western propaganda has become. Especially when it relates to hobbyhorses like Israel.

Here is NBCnews testing not only the stupidity of its viewers and readers but also demonstrating the fatuity of its 'journalists'.

'Top secret' Hamas documents show that terrorists intentionally targeted elementary schools and a youth center

Documents exclusively obtained by NBC News show that Hamas created detailed plans to target elementary schools and a youth center in the Israeli kibbutz of Kfar Sa'ad, to "kill as many people as possible," seize hostages and quickly move them into the Gaza Strip.

The attack plans, which are labeled "top secret" in Arabic, appear to be orders for two highly trained Hamas units to surround and infiltrate villages and target places where civilians, including children, gather. Israeli authorities are still determining the death toll in Kfar Sa'ad.

The documents were found on the bodies of Hamas terrorists by Israeli first responders and shared with NBC News. They include detailed maps and show that Hamas intended to kill or take hostage civilians and school children.

One page labeled “Top Secret” outlines a plan of attack for Kfar Sa’ad, saying “Combat unit 1” is directed to “contain the new Da’at school,” while “Combat unit 2” is to “collect hostages,” “search the Bnei Akiva youth center” and “search the old Da’at school.”

The attack happened in the early hours of October 7, a Saturday.

Cont. reading: Pro-Israel Propaganda Is Stupid

What is the reason for the 'Al-Aqsa Deluge', as Hamas had named its terror operation against the Zionists?

On October 8 Alastair Crooke, one of most experienced Middle East hands, wrote in AlMahadeen:

"Israel" has shattered into two equally weighted factions holding to two irreconcilable visions of "Israel’s" future; two mutually opposing readings of history and of what it means to be Jewish.

The fissure could not be more complete. Except it is. One faction, which holds a majority in parliament, is broadly Mizrahi — a former underclass in Israeli society; and the other, largely well-to-do liberal Ashkenazi.

Mizrahi are mostly the original Middle Eastern Jews and often on the religious far right, Ashkenazi are mostly liberal European ones. The current Netanyahoo government is the first which includes far-right Mizrahi ministers.

Most Mizrahi follow the Sephardi religious rites. They want an religious state based on Jewish law.  They are as radial as ISIS.

The high court of Israel has 14 Ashkenazi judges and one Mizrahi one. It is one of the reasons why the Netanyahoo government wants the parliament to be able to vote down high court judgements. There have been large, U.S. sponsored 'regime change' protests in Israel against that move. The leaders of the military and security services, mostly Ashkenazi, have also opposed the government move against the court.

I therefore think that it is quite possible that there was intelligence pointing to the Hamas attack, but that it was not revealed to let Netanyahoo fall into a trap. We have however no evidence that there were reasonably precise intelligence warnings, or that they were held up.

There are already demands for Netanyahoo to go. If only for his long term sponsoring of Hamas as a counterweight to the more secular Fatah Palestinians. Should he no longer be prime minister the courts will take up the three bribe cases against him which are currently pending. He would likely end up in jail.

Another reason for Hamas' success was the fact that three of the four infantry battalions, with 800 soldiers each, that usually guard the Gaza strip,  had been moved to the West Bank to protect right-wing Zionist settlers during a religious holiday. This allowed for Hamas' easy breach of the fence.

Back to Alastair Crooke on the real motive of the Al-Aqsa flood:

Cont. reading: The Split In Israel And The War Of Al-Aqsa

It is time China started taking Europe more seriously, says EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell – SCMP – Oct 12, 2023

“My first objective is to reaffirm to my Chinese interlocutors that Europe takes China seriously and has no hidden agenda aiming at derailing its rise.

“At the same time, we expect from China to take us more seriously and stop looking at us through the lens of its relations with others. Our assessment and conduct is driven by our own interests,” Borrell said.

His comments reflect a frustration in Europe that Beijing does not accept that the union has come to its own conclusions on China as relations worsen.

China’s state media often portrays the EU as a “puppet” of the US, but Borrell insisted that the “war in Ukraine has transformed us … from the position of an economic power to a geopolitical one, taking its strategic responsibilities very seriously”.

EU to investigate Chinese steel and aluminium sectors, with tariffs looming, in deal with US – SCMP – Oct 12, 2023

The European Union is set to investigate overcapacity in China’s steel sector, a move that could see a tariff of 25 per cent imposed on imports from the world’s second largest economy.

Aluminium is also in the EU cross hairs, with officials poised to commit to a 10 per cent tariff on shipments from China and other non-market economies.

The probe is part of a political agreement with the United States, set to be announced during a bilateral summit in Washington next week, that would also end some existing US tariffs on EU steel and aluminium imports, according to EU sources familiar with the plan.

The plan is expected to be announced by US President Joe Biden, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel on October 20.

Only for news & views directly related to the conflict in Palestine.

News of the day:

Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom – 4:51 UTC · Oct 12, 2023

MbS spoke last night with Iran's president Raisi (!). First call ever. From Saudi readout: MbS "expressed deep concern for the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza" and "underscored the kingdom's unwavering stance in standing up for the Palestinian cause."
HRH Crown Prince Receives Phone Call from Iranian President

The call was likely in response to U.S. plans for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza:

The US is in active talks with Israel and Egypt to establish "safe passage" corridors for civilians in Gaza to flee ongoing Israeli airstrikes, the White House said Wednesday amid an expected ground offensive in the besieged enclave.

"We're actively discussing this with our Israeli and our Egyptian counterparts, we support safe passions for civilians. Civilians are not to blame for what Hamas has done. They didn't do anything wrong," National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters at the White House.

"We are actively working on this with Egyptian and our Israeli counterparts. Civilians are protected under the laws of armed conflict, and they should be given every opportunity to avoid the fighting," he added.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

News of the day: The Biden administration is throwing Ukraine under the bus:

United States National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the support provided to Ukraine, currently at war with Russia, is not going to be indefinite. He added US is running out of money for Ukraine unless Congress approves additional funding

“In the near term, we’ve got appropriations and authorities for both Ukraine and for Israel,” Kirby said during the daily press briefing. “But you don’t want to be trying to bake in long-term support when you’re at the end of the rope.”

“And in Ukraine, on the Ukraine funding, we’re coming near to the end of the rope,” he added. “Today we announced $200 million, and we’ll keep that aid going as long as we can, but it’s not going to be indefinite.”

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

News & views (not related to the wars in Ukraine or Palestine) …

This is, presumably, the U.S.-Israeli plan for the Palestinian people in Gaza:

Harry Sisson @harryjsisson – 1:44 UTC · Oct 11, 2023

Amazing: President Biden is working on a plan with other countries that would allow civilians to safely leave Gaza and cross the border into Egypt. This is great news. President Biden is making sure that innocent people don’t die due to the actions of Hamas. That’s leadership.

No, it is not leadership. It is ethnic cleansing, a war crime disguised as humanitarian gesture. It is ethnic cleansing of people who's land has been stolen by Zionist settlers. These people would have no right of return to the homes and land they once owned. People who have been put into an open air prison, who have no access to electricity, water and food and are currently under intense attacks.

Egypt, the only country where they potentially could be moved to, is already bankrupt. It can not even provide for its own people. Two million new people from Gaza, all poor and some of them radicalized, would undoubtedly unbalance the Egyptian state.

Should such a plan be put into action it would guarantee that the resistance axis, Hizbullah and various other Sunni and Shia groups in the Middle East, would step in. They would attack Israel to prevent such a move.

The U.S. thinks it can deter resistance action by threatening to move in with its own forces. That's why the USS Herald Ford, its newest carrier, was moved into the Eastern Mediterranean. Rumors have it that a second carrier will come in too.

But the resistance can not be deterred by that. The last time the U.S. tried to intervene in Lebanon it ended up with 241 dead Marines and had to retreat in shame. Hizbullah at that time was only a handful of men. Today Hizbullah has tens of thousands of very well trained men. Then there are also Iran and Russia:

Cont. reading: U.S. Plans To Ethnically Cleanse Gaza

The Russian military has launched small attacks along the whole frontline. A major effort is made near Andivka which yesterday was bombed to smithereens:

The headline reads “RF Army has delivered a blow of previously unseen might against the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)”. What they are describing is an aerial bombing of Avdeevka, the heavily fortified Ukrainian town 14 kilometers away from Donetsk city, which is an urban center of more than a million inhabitants and capital of the Donbas oblast (region) of the same name. Donetsk city has been struck by missiles and artillery shells launched from Avdeevka on a daily basis from the time before the Special Military Operation, and with ever greater intensity during the SMO. Video images of destroyed homes and apartment buildings have appeared on Russian evening news together casualty figures and the testimony of victims.

The attack on Avdeevka came early in the morning when the Ukrainians were attempting to carry out a rotation of their troops. Eyewitnesses said that “the earth shook” in the whole area as a result of the bombing.
…
The bombing of Avdeevka today, like the reported destruction of a major Ukrainian command post by 1.5 ton bombs a couple of days ago, would suggest the “softening up” phase before a major ground offensive.

bigger

Since 2014 the Ukrainian military had made Andivka into a fortress. It requires big bombs to break its bunkers.

bigger

That something important was coming up could be seen it the recent Daily Reports by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: Storming Andivka – Ukrainian Losses

No, not really. Israel did not confess war crimes. It never does. It proudly announced that it will now commit a war crime:

Israel's defence minister described Palestinians as "human animals" and vowed to "act accordingly," as fighter jets unleashed a massive bombing campaign on the Gaza Strip.

Yoav Gallant announced a "complete siege" of the Gaza Strip, an area of about 365 square km, and home to 2.3 million Palestinians, which has been under an Israeli-led blockade since 2007.

"I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed," Gallant said.

"We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly," he added.

The Israeli air force has dropped 2,000 munitions and more than 1,000 tonnes of bombs on Gaza in the last 20 hours, the army said on Monday morning, having shelled 20 high-rise residential buildings, mosques, hospitals, banks and other civilian infrastructure.

Ragıp Soylu @ragipsoylu – 13:37 UTC · Oct 10, 2023

Israel military spokesman Daniel Hagari said that the army drops hundreds of tons of bombs in attacks in the Gaza Strip, and —— "the emphasis is on damage and not on accuracy.”
— Haaretz

Haaretz commentator Gideon Levy:
Israel Can’t Imprison Two Million Gazans Without Paying a Cruel Price (archived)

…
On Saturday they were already talking about wiping out entire neighborhoods in Gaza, about occupying the Strip and punishing Gaza “as it has never been punished before.” But Israel hasn’t stopped punishing Gaza since 1948, not for a moment.

After 75 years of abuse, the worse possible scenario awaits it once again. The threats of “flattening Gaza” prove only one thing: We haven’t learned a thing. The arrogance is here to stay, even though Israel is paying a high price once again.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bears very great responsibility for what happened, and he must pay the price, but it didn’t start with him and it won’t end after he goes. We now have to cry bitterly for the Israeli victims, but we should also cry for Gaza.

Gaza, most of whose residents are refugees created by Israel. Gaza, which has never known a single day of freedom.

Cont. reading: Israel Confesses War Crime

Will this finally end Netanyahoo's rein?

Egypt says Israel ignored warnings Hamas planned major offensive – Yedioth Ahranoth – Oct 9 2023

Egypt warned Israel of a pending Hamas attack ten days before terrorists breached the border and took control of military bases, and communities, killing more than 700 and taking 150 captive including women and children.

"We have warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings,” the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the content of sensitive intelligence discussions with the media, told The Associated Press.

The Egyptian official said the Israelis were concentrated on the tension on the West Bank and did not consider the Gaza ruling terror group to be a threat despite repeated warningד that the Egyptians though were not being taken seriously.

One would hope so. But the story will certainly be denied. And due to the war Bibi may still keep his seat.