Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 16, 2023

What The U.S. Will Learn, And Not Learn, From Its War In Ukraine

The quarterly magazine Parameters by the U.S. Army War College published an interesting paper about U.S. war capabilities:

A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force

Its abstract says:

Fifty years ago, the US Army faced a strategic inflection point after a failed counterinsurgency effort in Vietnam. In response to lessons learned from the Yom Kippur War, the United States Army Training and Doctrine Command was created to reorient thinking and doctrine around the conventional Soviet threat. Today’s Army must embrace the Russo-Ukrainian conflict as an opportunity to reorient the force into one as forward-thinking and formidable as the Army that won Operation Desert Storm.

This article suggests changes the Army should make to enable success in multidomain large-scale combat operations at today’s strategic inflection point.

It is normal for a military to analyze ongoing or just finished wars and to draw conclusions from them. Such efforts should then lead to changes in the military structure or its procedures.

The above effort though is unlikely to lead to the changes the authors want to see.

The authors correctly point out that command and control of troops via radio is problematic when the enemy has the means to detect all radio traffic:

The Russia-Ukraine War makes it clear that the electromagnetic signature emitted from the command posts of the past 20 years cannot survive against the pace and precision of an adversary who possesses sensor-based technologies, electronic warfare, and unmanned aerial systems or has access to satellite imagery; this includes nearly every state or nonstate actor the United States might find itself fighting in the near future.

The solution lies the extensive use of Mission Command (in the original German: Auftragstaktik) which allows subordinate leaders to do their own planning and operation within the given context:

When Milley served as Chief of Staff of the Army, he explained mission command through a concept of “disciplined disobedience” in which subordinates are empowered to accomplish a mission to achieve the commander’s intended purpose—even if they must disobey a specific order or task to do so. Without perfect communication, a subordinate officer or soldier must be trusted to make the right judgment call during battle, unencumbered by the need to seek approval for small adjustments.

To do that is a cultural issues. Mission Command must be lived and experienced from the very first day a civilian becomes a soldier. The U.S. officer corp is more used to direct order and control. The culture of Mission Command is not liked because mistakes of subordinate units still gets blamed on the higher command level.

Mission Command uses way less communication than direct order and control and is more robust when the crap hits the fan. But, unlike the German military, the U.S. army has never really lived up to it. I doubt that is going to change.

The next problem are high casualty numbers:

The Russia-Ukraine War is exposing significant vulnerabilities in the Army’s strategic personnel depth and ability to withstand and replace casualties. Army theater medical planners may anticipate a sustained rate of roughly 3,600 casualties per day, ranging from those killed in action to those wounded in action or suffering disease or other non-battle injuries. With a 25 percent predicted replacement rate, the personnel system will require 800 new personnel each day. For context, the United States sustained about 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. In large-scale combat operations, the United States could experience that same number of casualties in two weeks.

The 25% replacement rate is probably too low. Consider this current headline from Strana (machine translation):

Out of every 100 people, there are 10-20 left. The head of the Poltava TCC told about the losses in his district

The TCC is the Ukrainian administration responsible for drafting conscripts.

Out of every 100 people mobilized in the fall of last year, 10-20 remained, the rest are dead, wounded and disabled.

This was stated by the head of the Poltava regional TCC Vitaliy Berezhnoy, speaking yesterday at the 39th session of the Poltava City Council.

The problem is that the U.S. no longer has the reserves that are needed to sustain a large conflict:

[T]he US Army is facing a dire combination of a recruiting shortfall and a shrinking Individual Ready Reserve. This recruiting shortfall, nearly 50 percent in the combat arms career management fields, is a longitudinal problem. Every infantry and armor soldier we do not recruit today is a strategic mobilization asset we will not have in 2031. The Individual Ready Reserve, which stood at 700,000 in 1973 and 450,000 in 1994, now stands at 76,000. These numbers cannot fill the existing gaps in the active force, let alone any casualty replacement or expansion during a large-scale combat operation.

The authors recommend to re-introduce a partial conscription.

Politically that is unlike to happen. Any president who would do that would face immediate hostility from his voters.

Besides that there is rather large problem that most U.S. young citizens are not even qualified for it:

A new study from the Pentagon shows that 77% of young Americans would not qualify for military service without a waiver due to being overweight, using drugs or having mental and physical health problems.

A slide detailing the findings from the Pentagon's 2020 Qualified Military Available Study shared with Military.com shows a 6% increase from the latest 2017 Department of Defense research that showed 71% of Americans would be ineligible for service.

"When considering youth disqualified for one reason alone, the most prevalent disqualification rates are overweight (11%), drug and alcohol abuse (8%), and medical/physical health (7%)," the study, which examined Americans between the ages of 17 and 24, read. The study was conducted by the Pentagon's office of personnel and readiness.

Also most young people are not interested in serving in the military:

Only 9% of young people now show a propensity to serve, according to Defense Department polling data shared with ABC News. It's the lowest number seen in 15 years.
...
The second former senior military official said the recruiting problem is a sign of wider societal problems.

"It's a reflection on our country. It is our country, and those recruiters see those problems firsthand every day," the former official said.

Yup.

The next point in the Parameters paper is the wide introduction of drones:

The ubiquitous use of unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned surface vehicles, satellite imagery, sensor-based technologies, smartphones, commercial data links, and open-source intelligence is fundamentally changing the way armies will fight on the land domain in much the same way that unmanned aerial vehicles have changed the way air forces conduct operations in this century. These systems, coupled with emerging artificial intelligence platforms, dramatically accelerate the pace of modern war.

Western military have yet to introduce drones on the necessary scale. The Ukrainian and Russia military have both done well in that. They have recognized that drones are, like ammunition, consumables with Ukraine reportedly losing 10,000 per months. On top of reconnaissance drones the first-person-view (FPV) targeted armed drones have led to a wide use of drones in the role of precision targeted artillery.

Any units that are bunching up on the future battlefield will get immediately recognized and punished. This complicates the preparation for any larger operation.

This will require, the author say, a new level of deception when preparing for battle. It also requires more multi-domain reconnaissance and intelligence at every level. Any group leader should have a tablet and the necessary information available to him.

This point is probably the easiest one to fix. It just needs time until the necessary production facilities are in place to produce the necessary mass amounts of drones and to get some cheap information system down to the last level.

The other problems, Mission Command, personnel reserves and recruitment fitness, are cultural issues that will resist change.

The U.S. military, as many other western ones, is currently unable to fight on the large-scale combat level as the Russian army is currently doing.

That not only relates to the army but also to the navy and air-force. The U.S. ship-building capacity is 200 times lower than China's. U.S. Navy ships are badly conceived boondoggles. The short legged F-35 jets have terrible availability rates.

Despite all that U.S. politicians continue to instigate for wars against high level competitors.

The results of wars against Russia or China with the military forces the U.S. currently has would be embarrassing. It would be much better to not ever try it.

Posted by b on September 16, 2023 at 17:22 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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In other words, 2 more weeks until the AFU collapses a la Colonel MacGregor, hero of 73 Easting (supply depo)?

I note my comment on the previous article about the loss of Russia's modernised Kilo-class submarine was removed. Seems even pro-Russians do not care about Russian losses, in equipment and manpower.

What happened to the "Disarming Ukraine" series of articles from the beginning of the war?

Posted by: Soothsayer | Sep 16 2023 17:29 utc | 1

Maybe we ought to study and learn how to make and keep peace instead of war.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 16 2023 17:30 utc | 2

the enemy has the means to detect all radio traffic

needs MOAR Navaho coded ITC!

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 16 2023 17:35 utc | 3

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 16 2023 17:30 utc | 2

PREPOSTEROUS!

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 16 2023 17:36 utc | 4

Any large scale foreign war will meet with great hostility in America, and would inevitably be disastrous because of technically inferior US weapons and lack of skilled manpower..It shouldn't even be contemplated, but is by the lunatics in the State dept....

Posted by: pyrrhus | Sep 16 2023 17:37 utc | 5

it is all about from 1989 to 2002, the US ran out of easy opponents to beat.

and as brave and superhuman the US Army was in 1942 to 45, the US fought the B-team in Europe.

Posted by: ice cream sandwich | Sep 16 2023 17:38 utc | 6

Russian Duma parliamentarian and former Commander of the Southern Military District (the headquarters of which Wagner soldiers surrounded in Rostov in June) Andrei Gurulev writes [t.me/agurulev/3756]


I will briefly report on the situation at the front without referencing specific directions. The information was obtained from primary sources, it was systematised, and the following conclusions were made.

The enemy, having properly faced our forces at the beginning of his counter-offensive, changed his combat tactics. They are no longer moving forward in large forces; they were obviously forbidden to lose heavy equipment en masse.

Today they have switched to squeeze-out tactics, they are massively using cluster shells, inflicting damage on the strong points of our units, assault groups, they have a lot of ammunition, they are trying to burn out absolutely everything. Yes, this situation forces our troops to retreat deeper. Not far, but in some places they lost up to 10 kilometers of territory. The enemy has in places occupied our defensive positions, which were very well equipped with our own hands.

After breaking the defense line, the enemies created conditions making it impossible to use anti-tank missiles by our helicopters; after the line was pushed, they became vulnerable to enemy MANPADS. The efficiency of our helicopters has decreased.

The enemy has learned to work with our very well- made minefields. They competently clear them of mines, by inflicting artillery fire and using trawls.

Our artillery has improved the quality of counter- battery warfare. There are results, but again the enemy is adapting. Basically, all of its guns are installed in depth at a distance inaccessible to our artillery. An estimated two artillery brigades were concentrated in the "hottest" directions, not counting the artillery of local brigades. We burned a lot of their towed artillery, they switched to using self-propelled guns. Our people say that it is very difficult, almost impossible, to catch them; after the second aimed shot they move and change position.

They have a lot of unmanned vehicles and even more. We have also adapted here, and over the last 2-3 weeks we have been effectively destroying them. Verba and Strela-10 air defense systems work well against UAVs. But the Ukrainians have a lot of drones, they use them wisely, you see these attacks not only at the front, but also in our deep rear.

Posted by: Soothsayer | Sep 16 2023 17:41 utc | 7

"The results of wars against Russia or China with the military forces the U.S. currently has would be embarrassing. It would be much better to not ever try it."
So where have the $trillions for the MIC gone over the last few years? For overpriced pathetic arms that easily blow up in Ukraine. The defense budget is pure pork and the results are getting BBQed in Ukraine.
After the Challenger tanks got taken out I dont think the Abrams will make to the front or F16.

Posted by: Cycling Nut | Sep 16 2023 17:41 utc | 8

how hopeful! we should stop waging war altogether, by any means.

Posted by: annie | Sep 16 2023 17:46 utc | 9

It's easy to infer all this from the hesitancy, even cowardice, of the US military in getting directly involved in a war with Russia particularly when the US went to war with Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria with far less justification.

I await the day Washington's stupidity will finally get the better of them when they decide to directly fight Russia, China, Iran and North Korea simultaneously.

I have popcorn ready for the entertainment of watching the "mighty NATO" military get stomped into the mantle.

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Sep 16 2023 17:49 utc | 10

Autonomous War Machines run by machine learning algorithms will take precedence on a future 'AI' war, but this is seriously dangerous. In terms of Ukraine, they literally have few weeks left unless US-led NATO intervenes but even that will be a complete failure.

Posted by: AI | Sep 16 2023 17:50 utc | 11

The authors recommend to re-introduce a partial conscription.

Politically that is unlike to happen. Any president who would do that would face immediate hostility from his voters."

I wouldn't be so sure about this. Who the gods would kill..and all. US imperialism has reached the terminal phase and this has produced a madness and irrationality that is obvious not just to the whole world, but to most alert Americans, as well.

They are convinced and correct that in just a few short years even their waning military advantages will disappear and thus they feel they must use them asap to return Russia/China to vassal status. They are so committed that even traditional bourgeois democratic rights have been quietly eliminated to prevent any possible check on these insane war plans.

So they will keep going and that will necessitate a draft at some point. That draft which will likely include young women under the guise of a fight against sexism, will be so painful and revolting to the broad population it will make the anti war movement of the Vietnam era look like Sesame Street.

One can only imagine a similar outcome when Europe requires a draft in an attempt to cope with a reborn militarized Russia that it has relentlessly provoked and called forward.

This inevitable collapse creates previously unknown opportunities for organized political intervention by the working population. What society will the people put in place of dead imperialism?

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 16 2023 17:50 utc | 12

So where have the $trillions for the MIC gone over the last few years? For overpriced pathetic arms that easily blow up in Ukraine. The defense budget is pure pork and the results are getting BBQed in Ukraine.

Posted by: Cycling Nut | Sep 16 2023 17:41 utc | 8

###########

Any Europeans who have faced austerity measures should be asking where all of the NATO funding went given that NATO is not capable at all.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 16 2023 17:57 utc | 13

What society will the people put in place of dead imperialism?

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 16 2023 17:50 utc | 12

##############

Regrettably, we have a lot of history to guide us on this. Humans don't tend to make good decisions when it comes to power allocation.

Imperialism may die but the Satanic elites are likely to continue prospering.

Good thing that each human has a God in them to handle all of this stuff in an enlightened and profound way ... 😂

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 16 2023 18:01 utc | 14

The U.S. ship-building capacity is 200 times lower than China's. U.S. Navy ships are badly conceived boondoggles.

Posted by b on September 16, 2023 at 17:22 UTC | Permalink

Perhaps but the USN is still the most powerful naval force in the world with multiple CVBG and a large modern nuclear attack submarine force, just to name two items China is still catching up to and which are rather long lead time items. I would guess China has amassed enough armaments to make any attempt at launching carrier sorties against it as if it were a Lybia or a Serbia costly or suicidal and it could probably churn out ammunition and the simpler weapons platforms in large quantity
but beyond that the US still rules the oceans. It makes sense to press that advantage before it erodes.
As for the rest, maybe but the USA can raise countless millions of troops willing to fight with suicidal courage among its subjects, I have no doubt the taiwanese will follow the ukrainian example when push will come to shove.

Posted by: Satepestage | Sep 16 2023 18:13 utc | 15


So where have the $trillions for the MIC gone over the last few years? ... I dont think the Abrams will make to the front or F16.
Posted by: Cycling Nut | Sep 16 2023 17:41 utc | 8

First F-16's, first gen Abrams tanks, Bradley IVF's stripped of their most modern gear isn't the cutting edge of US military technology. Even then the army is the red haired stepchild of the US armed forces. The Navy and air force get all the money plus the USA runs a massive intelligence operation.

As for the army the USA is essentially an island so with a navy and air force what's the point of having a strong conventional army? You watch the way they operate in the Middle east ... the army just calls in air strikes whenever they encounter a little friction.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Sep 16 2023 18:14 utc | 16

@Satepestage | Sep 16 2023 18:13 utc | 15

Perhaps but the USN is still the most powerful naval force in the world with multiple CVBG...

In a head-to-head conflict, could China not sink a US carrier in minutes, using one or more hypersonic missiles? Or is there currently a credible defense against this?

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Sep 16 2023 18:20 utc | 17

I can see Biden reinstating the draft...and excluding migrants from it...to finish off the patriot nationals. The Neocons are really THAT depraved that they would destroy what's left of decency in 'Murica.

Posted by: polyhedral | Sep 16 2023 18:20 utc | 18

El punto más interesante en mi opinión, es la nueva guerra de drones.
El Ejército ruso era un desastre antes del 2022, con pocos drones desarrollados.
Hoy sin embargo, y gracias a Usa y la Otan, es el ejército con mayor nivel desarrollado de drones. En especial esos Lancets, que son crema absoluta.

Posted by: Jose C | Sep 16 2023 18:21 utc | 19

So where have the $trillions for the MIC gone over the last few years?

Posted by: Cycling Nut | Sep 16 2023 17:41 utc | 8

For overpriced toys like Microsoft’s fighting goggles: 400 million USD for 6900 test devices. Then 22 billion USD for 121.000 finished devices ($182.000 per device!).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-13/microsoft-s-tweaked-army-goggles-worked-well-in-new-test-us-says

Posted by: Zet | Sep 16 2023 18:26 utc | 20

"the USA can raise countless millions of troops willing to fight with suicidal courage among its subject..."

Posted by: Satepestage | Sep 16 2023 18:13 utc | 15

and how will you pre-position them vs. salvos of Zircons?

as for submarines...yes top notch. but the "advantage" is in strategic nuclear war only. Russian air defense complexes are a generation ahead of what the USA fields. there will be ample time time to melt Washington with Russian conventional and strategic stand off platforms...and flood Norfolk with the Poseidon drones currently lurking in American littoral waters🤷 just not sure how America has any long term "advantage" in a world not subsumed by nuclear winter...

Posted by: TGL | Sep 16 2023 18:30 utc | 21

“……… to reorient the force into one as forward-thinking and formidable as the Army that won Operation Desert Storm.”

Translation: always pick on a third rate army so you can give the dumb tax-payers something they can thump their chest.

I cannot believe they actúally sited desert storm as an example of success for possible future strategy against a first rate army like Russia. Pathetic

Posted by: Alpi | Sep 16 2023 18:35 utc | 22

thx b.

It´funny as War On The Rocks published this piece 2 days ago:

"Making Nuclear Sharing Credible Again: What the F-35A Means for NATO"
Frank Kuhn
Sept. 14th 2023

https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/making-nuclear-sharing-credible-again-what-the-f-35a-means-for-nato/

Its typical for WTR but ok read
with paragraphs like this one (the hyperlinks include the same one "b" has in the very end)

"Even though the F-35A has yet to perform a number of crucial tests to go into full-rate
production, is plagued by availability issues due to a lack of spare parts and functional
engines, and still has over 800 open deficiencies, it is already a very capable fighter.
Thanks to its stealth capabilities, electronic warfare suite, and advanced sensors, which
provide the pilots with situational awareness unmatched by any fourth-generation
platform, the F-35A will give nuclear sharing participants unprecedented ability to
penetrate highly defended Russian airspace.
The advances of stealth capabilities should be obvious to anyone who closely watched
the performance of the F-117 Nighthawk during the first night of Operation Desert
Storm in 1991. Whereas fourth-generation fighters were employed in large strike
packages to ensure adequate protection, the F-117s slipped through Iraqi air defenses
and struck their targets unimpeded, without any additional support."

If I remember correctly POGO´s study the engines failed 50% or so. The thing couldn´t even actually take off.
And ´wasn´t the F-117 the one hated most by its pilots?

Funny that the Iraqi Army of the 1990s is now regarded as a specimen of supreme military might. Hussein would have loved it.

Which would make me think of this gem, "Hot Shots Part Deux" with Charlie Sheen as Topper Harley.
Yeah, I was there in the movie theatre:

("Who is it? -It´s your wife, Hillary Rodham Hussein")
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyEt12EfQWY

Posted by: AG | Sep 16 2023 18:36 utc | 23

My short response is that the United States of America has no experience of fighting a war against a peer power. If Operation Desert Storm is considered a victory to boast about, then I don't know what to say.

Posted by: Steve | Sep 16 2023 18:39 utc | 24

When you war, " you take the seized land "
and give it to your poor people!

Erased from conscious during the castle era.

Posted by: Timewilltell | Sep 16 2023 18:40 utc | 25

The US Army has 13 enlisted Army ranks, which is crazy. Just imagine working in an organization with a couple dozen ranks (including commissioned officers) above you. What capable young man or woman wants to be in such an oppressive organization, which also involves forceful put-downs in basic training?

Such a vast bureaucracy frustrates soldiers and undermines leadership development. In civilian business getting rid of grades boosts performance. But we can expect that no such modern thinking would ever occur in a US general, or a Pentagon civilian.

The Russian army has 6 enlisted ranks.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 16 2023 18:41 utc | 26

In response to
"
Good thing that each human has a God in them to handle all of this stuff in an enlightened and profound way ... 😂

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 16 2023 18:01 utc | 14
"

By enlightened and profound do you mean like the Catholic religion that became hypocritical in the 13 century when they funded their Crusades against heathens by usury?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 16 2023 18:42 utc | 27

War until the last Ukrainian

https://t.me/xoxol_uk/17172

Posted by: Crazy idiot | Sep 16 2023 18:43 utc | 28

In a head-to-head conflict, could China not sink a US carrier in minutes, using one or more hypersonic missiles? Or is there currently a credible defense against this?

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Sep 16 2023 18:20

Certainly the China can manage to sink one or more carriers in his own turf: saturation cruise missile attacks, a yuan getting lucky, hypersonics or what have you. But the US still rules the oceans and that has a number if implications.

and how will you pre-position them vs. salvos of Zircons?

Posted by: TGL | Sep 16 2023 18:30 utc | 21

Like in Ukraine, they are already there.

Posted by: Satepestage | Sep 16 2023 18:43 utc | 29

The Wounded Warrior Project advertisements broadcast on television in the US is a fantastic anti-recruitment tool. Highlighting the misery and wrecked bodies of persons fooled into joining the US military and the fact they need to beg for donations to pay for their care should educate America's young adults what military service will do to them. The war lords dream of an automated fighting force of masses of AI controlled drones but the overweight, fat, obese, and morbidly obese subjects they rule will also be incapable of producing these killing machines in quantities and quality to match their opponents. The contradictions of a capitalist society are catching up to the reach of the aspiring global supremacists, whose greed has severely limited the capabilities of the society they dominate.

Posted by: Wilikins | Sep 16 2023 18:44 utc | 30

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-eagle-has-landed-america-meets

In late WW2 the US military achieved a relative peak. But before it did so it had to undergo a series of very hard "learning experiences". In that era it was capable of learning. What is the chance now, given the near racist dismisal of Russia's military capabilities? And NATO generally seems to think the same way.

I hold the view that the current crop of NATO senior commanders operate under the belief that c 1991 they fought and defeated the Soviet Union in armed conflict. Or so it seems to me.

Just remind me when was the last time anyone beat the Russian military in the Donbas region? ie Russia proper.

What I think is occurring is that the Russian military is expanding, becoming experienced and battle hardened, and equipped with new tech, backed by an enlarged MIC - whilst NATO is busy blaming the UAF for not following orders - sorry suggested tactics. WTF? The balance is NOT moving to NATO's advantage.

From almost year dot, Russian Armies have been pretty crappy at first and then very formidable and pretty quickly. Like most armies. Not learning is a fatal experience.

But NATO has the formula. Hmmm.... That was actually the (para)phrase used by Nivelle in 1917.

Posted by: marcjf | Sep 16 2023 18:48 utc | 31

Posted by: Soothsayer | Sep 16 2023 17:29 utc | 1

Stay in Germany and bask your self-loathing. Russia isn't going anywhere. Still, it's refreshing to see someone who was whining about Russia "depleting its gene pool" now gloating in the losses inflicted upon the country by NATO. That would be the very anti-Russian alliance on whose behest you would love to see Russia enter in collision course with China.

Not to worry though. There are decent orthopedicists in Germany who can help with any problems caused by your constant grovelling.

Posted by: Constantine | Sep 16 2023 18:49 utc | 32

One question: do army conscripters consider you mentally ill when you are a strong healthy young man?

Posted by: Orgel | Sep 16 2023 18:49 utc | 33

The cutest part about American "military experts" is that they constantly project their own army's and society's deep-seated issues and failings onto Russia's. We just keep hearing so much about how it's those dumb subhuman rooskies who only have top-down command structures and cannot show small-scale initiative on the field, for example. Even though that's exactly what's distinguishing them right now, whereas Western proxies are stuck in following politically motivated orders from Washington and prohibited from even trying it.

Posted by: Red Outsider | Sep 16 2023 18:52 utc | 34

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 16 2023 18:41 utc | 26

Prob with USA military is split between officers and enlisted.

Officers command the the poorest. Officers bring unique skills of not caring about others, taught to hate to second class from birth.

This design is why wars happen. Enlisted are the average Joe making 90% who can't afford rent are enlisted gets bossed around by the wealthiest ivy league scum wokest mob running the military.
Beware if you think military has a brain. It's a woke run mob of yes men following orders from rich silver spoon royalty who urge the poor to their deaths.

Posted by: Timewilltell | Sep 16 2023 18:56 utc | 35

Posted by: polyhedral | Sep 16 2023 18:20 utc | 18

Any actual "patriot nationals" will not join the armed forces of the Anglo-American empire, draftor not. The use of unregulated immigration is to maintain an extensive pool of impoverished individauls in a state of chronic fear about their future so as to compel them to join Satan's Household.

It was quite funny to see so-called whites bitching about "woke" directives decreeing for more non-whites to enter the ranks. These were described as "anti-white". So the imperialist regime goes into "we want black suckers to serve the bloodsuckers" mode, but somehow this is against the whitey?

Posted by: Constantine | Sep 16 2023 18:58 utc | 36

After twenty years of forever wars and interventions in the MENA, is anyone truly surprised that just about nobody in America has a stomach for more jingoistic adventures abroad?

Posted by: Monos | Sep 16 2023 18:58 utc | 37

One question: do army conscripters consider you mentally ill when you are a strong healthy young man?

Posted by: Orgel | Sep 16 2023 18:49 utc | 33

They surely do if you do not share the goals of the depraved establishment and you're willing to denounce its blood-drenched ways.

Posted by: Constantine | Sep 16 2023 19:00 utc | 38

Listened to a fresh air podcast yesterday about the US navy procurement process. The navy is still wedded to building destroyers and other large ships for political reasons, as the multi billion dollar contracts provide employment in key congressional districts. It is politically difficult change a system that is so embedded in the political and economic system. Significant change is only possible by increasing the defense budget to incorporate new programs while not cutting obsolete ones that underpin local economies.

The switch to producing large numbers of inexpensive autonomous weapons such as drones will take years. Design and production must be flexible as the pace of technological change is so rapid. As soon as a system is deployed counter measures are developed requiring changes in design.

The scale of the conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated the difficulties with the existing procurement models which take perhaps a decade or more to go from research and design to mass production. Experiments with new technology can be run at limited scale, but scaling up quickly to produce large numbers that can be deployed before effective counter measures are in place us not an easy task.

Both sides in the conflict face these issues, and the fallback for Russia seems to have been the defense in depth, very long front, and attritional warfare, while at the same time constantly attacking logistical infrastructure in the rear.

Eventually Russia will have to take more territory, even if the goal is only to secure the newly incorporated regions, but to be successful they must so weaken their opponent that resistance will be ineffective.

It is even more clear to me now (than it was a year ago) that to adequately protect Crimea they must secure the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast. I don't see how they can do this without additional mobilization and a weakening of political (and financial) support for Ukraine, particularly in the EU states. Perhaps they will need NK ammo to adequately support such an expansion of the front. I don't believe they can afford to wait another year to do this.

Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 16 2023 19:02 utc | 39

After twenty years of forever wars and interventions in the MENA, is anyone truly surprised that just about nobody in America has a stomach for more jingoistic adventures abroad?

Posted by: Monos | Sep 16 2023 18:58 utc | 37

Unfortunately, the number of muppets is shockingly high. All that is required is the proper propagandistic jolt. Say, an unprovoked attack of subhuman, asiatic hordes on the Baltic states, these bastions of the superior western civilization, the "garden" of humanity. Suggestions about NATO culpability and extreme escalations will not reach the masses of the imperial loyalists.

Posted by: Constantine | Sep 16 2023 19:06 utc | 40

The site has been deranked in Google I used to have the search keyword moon of Alabama in my phone and sometimes used to have that keyed in Google to reach here. Just type mo then moon of Alabama would come in search history and bam first find was this site. Today when I did it today I couldn't find it in the first page.i don't think it ever happened before maybe it was not the first entry but always on the first page.
Someone else can try and see if I m wrong
I m using a galaxy phone

Posted by: A.z | Sep 16 2023 19:10 utc | 41

First 50 entry more like it phone dies have infi scrolling but didn't find it

Posted by: A.z | Sep 16 2023 19:12 utc | 42

Posted by: Soothsayer | Sep 16 2023 17:29 utc | 1

Are you alluding to this? Game changer yah?

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/63081

Posted by: Surferket | Sep 16 2023 19:21 utc | 43

Posted by: Satepestage | 15

Perhaps but the USN is still the most powerful naval force in the world with multiple CVBG and a large modern nuclear attack submarine force,

US submarine production capacity is 2 boats per year. Los Angeles boats are retiring at perhaps 1 boat per year. Currently we are able to replace LA Class boats as they retire and add a new Virginia class boat. However, when the new SSGN's start being built, Viginia class boat production will decline to 1 boat per year.

A reduction of total submarine fleet numbers appears to be unavoidable.

US destroyer production I think is 2x per year.

China and Russia are continental powers. They can lose a naval contest without real strategic effect and use their superior industrial capacity to quickly replace losses. The US Navy would likely win a Naval battle with China, but would certainly lose some number of ships in the process which it lacks the ability to replace.

Russian Yasen class submarines are reportedly as quiet as Virginia class boats. Russian submarine production suffered after the collapse of the USSR but is again ramping up to build 2x nuclear boats per year with plans to go to 4. Both classes now are quieter than the oceans background noise so advantages from quiet running will be less important and other metrics will gain in importance: sensors, diving depth, weapons load and torpedo capabilities...

Posted by: danf51 | Sep 16 2023 19:27 utc | 44

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 16 2023 18:42 utc | 27

The initial Crusades were funded by the usury of the Jews practised on Catholic Christian European Kings. Then it was off loot illegally taken off the Byzantine Empire ,who were of course the people the Crusaders were meant to help. It became worse when the Crusaders conquered Constantinople,disgusting and infuriating the Pope who then excommunicated the former.

Google ranking of MOA.

In my country, I can't get MOA relatively high in the ranking , and when I directly input MOA 's address into the dialogue box I then receive an official message telling me the MOA is unsafe as it is not HTTPS. Now from that you can see that the rankings have been altered by someone very high up and that MOA's site is actually not HTTPS (even though the HTTPS locked sign appears) or that someone high up is hacking the Google Android platform to lie to us. One would have to be very naive to believe that intelligence agencies do not monitor this site and/or gnash their teeth whilst trying to bring it down.

Posted by: Wondrous | Sep 16 2023 19:33 utc | 45

Regrettably, we have a lot of history to guide us on this. Humans don't tend to make good decisions when it comes to power allocation.

Imperialism may die but the Satanic elites are likely to continue prospering.

Good thing that each human has a God in them to handle all of this stuff in an enlightened and profound way ... 😂

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 16 2023 18:01 utc | 14

Well there's the misanthropic response. Any other viewpoints?

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 16 2023 19:33 utc | 46

The Original is „Führen mit Auftrag“, not Auftragstaktik. The Bundeswehr does not use the Term Auftragstaktik in their Papers. It is historical and was not commun. More common in the 19th Century was the „Kult der Selbstständigkeit.“

„Auftragstaktik“ is, by the Way, not a Taktik, but a Philosophy how to lead.
It is between the autoriarian Leading and the Laisser-faire Leading, just right of the „situative Leading“ which mixes strict Orders and Mission Thinking.
The Bundeswehr also uses Führen mit Auftrag as a Part of their „Innere Führung“ which is their Menschenbild of a Soldier.

Book I recommend: Marco Sigg „Der Unterführer als Feldherr im Taschenformat. Theorie und Praxis der Auftragstaktik im deutschen Heer 1869 bis 1945“

Posted by: Bergverrueckt | Sep 16 2023 19:34 utc | 47

psychohistorian | Sep 16 2023 17:30 utc | 2--

Yours is the best, most insightful comment on this thread. Warfare has reached a point where its almost 100% massacre for all contenders, except for the extremely rare situation where the conflict pits modern arms against spears. The next element in weaponry I mooted on the previous thread--high energy particle beams. Imagine them being focused into an umbrella covering your forces concealing and protecting them simultaneously a la Star Wars. Think that's too fantastic? I don't think so at all. And then there's the great probability of 100% unmanned systems in every medium--land, sea, air--all controlled via unhackable quantum computing systems. Russia's anti-missile systems are at the point envisioned by Reagan's Star Wars--but the Outlaw US Empire lags way behind there. So, it's not just manpower the Empire lacks; it's also technical capabilities. The report b cites isn't looking forward far enough; it's looking at yesterday and today, not next decade.

The US military complex still misinterprets Vietnam, views Iraq as some great victory, and is so bloated with corruptions it will never be what it thinks it can be. Also, the perverted mismanagement of US society by the federal government and its corporate sponsors is responsible for the insanely massive gap in patriotism between the Empire and its two self-chosen adversaries. Hint: Why did Star Wars Galactic Empire need to rely on clones? For the same reason nobody wants to die for the Outlaw US Empire--there's no honor, family tradition and/or values worthy of defending. Who wants to die for Biden, Trump, or some other corporate puke?

The past 50 years has seen a Sea Change within what was once seen as the USA but no longer exists. It's exponentially worse than the attitude that prevailed during Vietnam. The Big Lies and Establishment Narrative no long work. Russia, China, and most Global South nations put their people first and they know it, while in the Outlaw US Empire and its NATO vassals it's the exact opposite. And therein lies the most basic and important difference.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 16 2023 19:37 utc | 48

Perhaps but the USN is still the most powerful naval force in the world with multiple CVBG and a large modern nuclear attack submarine force, just to name two items China is still catching up

Posted by: Satepestage | Sep 16 2023 18:13 utc | 15

It's the Russians who have a very significant Submarine capacity. As described in this article from Newsweek;

https://www.newsweek.com/us-nuclear-submarine-fleet-russia-comparison-1786023

As for your CVBG reference, consider this;

There are only 2 types of ships...

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/f7/18/ad/f718ad8c88e40169b13702a40bb35776.jpg

As for counting bodies that could potentially be available for sacrifice on the alter of ambitions, sorry that's not something I would speculate on, nor care to envision. I know how a shitty deal ends when enough people are convinced that beating ploughshares into swords is a good idea. Or they're so poor, the money offered is seen as a viable option to sate their want.

Posted by: bubbles | Sep 16 2023 19:41 utc | 49

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Sep 16 2023 18:20 utc | 17 "could China not sink a US carrier in minutes,"

Not likely in "minutes".

The problem right now is that the carriers move so striking them depends on keeping the missile updated with the target location until the on board seeker can see it.

China is now believed to have some satellites that can supply this data, in a least near realtime. The satellites and data transmission may or may not be jammable.

The carriers are always accompanied by multiple ships armed with missiles that *might* work against such a missle. How many of the VLS tubes are actually filled and carrying missiles that have a high pk is unknown.

So who knows, but if China has enough of those missiles they only need one to get though while the US Navy needs to be able to defeat all of the ones fired at it's carriers.

Posted by: Ed5 | Sep 16 2023 19:42 utc | 50

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 16 2023 19:37 utc | 48

That's an interesting post there. BTW, I'm pretty sure it was the Galactic Republic that used the clones, but that was a ploy by the Sith Lord to utilize them to liquidate his enemies, i.e. the Jedi. The Empire used recruits, but added an element of supremacism, that is, only humans allowed. That includes the concept of exceptionalism.

Much of the basic lore had to do with the political views of George Lucas. The Empire was inspired by the British empire and especially the US of the Vietnam era, while the inspiration for the rebels were the Vietkong. The Emperor was based on Nixon towards whom he had an intense antipathy.

Later, in order to explain the transformation of the Republic into an Empire, he used the concept of the artificial creation of an enemy that would justify increased authoritarianism and concentration of power, here at the hands of the one who would become the Emperor. This had everything to do with the wars in Afghnistan and especially Iraq. Lucas even added a slightly paraphrased quote of G.W.Bush in the scrip"if you're not with me, you're against me".

All in all, despite some mistakes, Lucas had an approach that described political developments in the US in an uncanny manner. Typically, the Anglo-American regime has subverted the message and used Star Wars for its propaganda. The ease that such ploys can be used is what makes me far less optimistic than you, Mr. Sanchez. Hope you're right though.

Posted by: Constantine | Sep 16 2023 19:58 utc | 51

Yes, today's military applications are very vulnerable to new physical-principal weapons. A tiny variation of >50° temperature swing can blind majority of newest IFV&tanks produced today by overheating/disabling the optics chip. A modest 200° increase would boil the chip on the heatsink. Btw, don't need to melt the entire tank steel armor. Just the fragile plastic components. Reverse engineering any thermal scope like the spectus hensoldts explains obsolescence by peresvet

Posted by: Timewilltell | Sep 16 2023 20:05 utc | 52

overweight (11%), drug and alcohol abuse (8%), and medical/physical health (7%)

Only 26%, what about the other 45 out of 71%?

Posted by: William Haught | Sep 16 2023 20:12 utc | 53

The second former senior military official said the recruiting problem is a sign of wider societal problems.

Who would fight for something that makes no secret of the fact that it is a cabal reducing you to an indebted labour unit? Who would fight for something that has hollowed out citizenship and civic meaning? Who would fight for something which no longer invests in a sense of national cohesion and unity?

The contrast with 1941 is extraordinary: then a citizen army knew there was a deal—a New Deal in fact—underwriting their participation. In exchange for fighting fascism and foregoing revolution that citizen army would receive elevation to middle-class status; the rest is the great redistribution of wealth which made the US an enviable place to live until recently. So, the blame doesn't lie (only) with the potential recruits. The USA is entirely responsible for eroding the conditions which might produce the motivated volunteer army of the early 20th century. If you destroy all forms of human sociality in order to squeeze every last dollar from a people you openly regard as cattle you have to accept that cynicism, disengagement and indifference to country will result. Most young Americans would be more likely to make war on DC than any foreign power. Only a vast new social contract can turn that around, something like the PRC and Russia are doing. Quid quo goddam pro MFers.

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 16 2023 20:18 utc | 54

Or is there currently a credible defense against this?

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Sep 16 2023 18:20 utc | 17

---

If it could not be sunk immediately with today's missile technology, they would not be forced to threaten a nuclear retaliation.

Posted by: Nobody | Sep 16 2023 20:36 utc | 55

Who wants to die for Biden, Trump, or some other corporate puke?

The past 50 years has seen a Sea Change within what was once seen as the USA but no longer exists. It's exponentially worse than the attitude that prevailed during Vietnam. The Big Lies and Establishment Narrative no long work. Russia, China, and most Global South nations put their people first and they know it, while in the Outlaw US Empire and its NATO vassals it's the exact opposite. And therein lies the most basic and important difference.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 16 2023 19:37 utc | 48

To the first sentence, only those who would embark on a fools errand, and I agree those two are very bad choices by America's great brain trust. An insult, an in your face reality to the American people. Here schmucks, this is the power we have, now join a political gang or be left behind. As Goering once said, "It works the same way in every county." That's out of context, but it does apply

But I do see some reason to question this thought you offer;

"Russia, China, and most Global South nations put their people first and they know it,"

As an amateur student of history I wouldn't challenge your greater historical knowledge, but I do wonder about your conclusions stated above? Without writing a great long post to support my thinking, as we so many are wont to do, I will simply ask you this, Would you like to be a citizen of China?

I know someone whom I admire who went to live there some years ago when he had many other choices as he is a most able person, but that's not a one size fits all thing, so I wonder if you would like to live in the land of China?

There is no wrong answer to my question, just a frank reply is all I ask for.

Posted by: bubbles | Sep 16 2023 20:37 utc | 56

So who knows, but if China has enough of those missiles they only need one to get though while the US Navy needs to be able to defeat all of the ones fired at it's carriers. Posted by: Ed5 | Sep 16 2023 19:42 utc | 50

I don't know much about missiles or ships, so just for clarification, is this comment accurate or hyperbole? I assume that all modern ships were designed to withstand a single missile hit, but I also assumet that modern missiles are designed to take that into account, so... ?

Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Sep 16 2023 20:37 utc | 57

@Soothsayer: No, it will take a while and was nowhere stated. Russia basically fights a conventional war against NATO with Ukraine as vehicle.
Demilitarization of Ukraine is ongoing but unfortunately it hits the least non-replaceable factor which is Ukrainians. 400,000 are dead already and possibly EU extradictions from refugees-turned-to-deserters will start in the next weeks to fill the gaps as long as possible.
And in addition the demilitarization of NATO equipment and deindustrialization of EU core countries is also ongoing. Expect major political turmoil there.

Posted by: xblob | Sep 16 2023 20:39 utc | 58

The authors correctly point out that command and control of troops via radio is problematic when the enemy has the means to detect all radio traffic:

Actually, this is incorrect. It can be matehmatically proven that it is *always* possible to undetectably bury the comms signals in background noise so long as you are willing to accept lower data transmission rates--and the transmission rates required for voice and positioning is very low. If the field is sharing high res video with each other, that would be a different story.

Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Sep 16 2023 20:45 utc | 59

Incidentally, one of the authors of the sited report, John A Nagl, wrote the book "Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife". Does anybody here who actually read the book also been invovled in countersurgencies? If so, could you tell me how insightful/accurate the analysis is?

Thanks

Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Sep 16 2023 20:50 utc | 60

Like in Ukraine, they are already there.
Posted by: Satepestage | Sep 16 2023 18:43 utc | 29
💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀

"...countless millions of troops...?"

in fact not at all🤷🤡

Posted by: TGL | Sep 16 2023 20:50 utc | 61

sln2002 say: THE ENEMY https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/09/what-the-us-will-learn-and-not-learn-from-the-war-in-ukraine.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d39d8469200b#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d39d8469200b

Personally, do you have an enemy? Am I your enemy?

Who invents enemies for you?

Can you tell me who tells you that I am your enemy?

I am an office worker, I consume and buy products to live.

Are you so gullible to believe the enemies they invent for you?
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/09/what-the-us-will-learn-and-not-learn-from-the-war-in-ukraine.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d39dd723200d#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d39dd723200d

Posted by: Neocons | Sep 16 2023 20:51 utc | 62

The authors of the paper are searching for a way to keep the US military at a strength that will sustain global primacy. With Russia and China getting stronger every day while the US military suffers all of the issues mentioned in this post, that is mission impossible. Perhaps some of these military thinkers should entertain the possibility that the problem is not so much with the military side of things, but with a delusional foreign policy that presumes that the US can continue to display total dominance over the rest of the world. If the US defense budget was reduced by half it would still be the world's largest, and a proportionately reduced military would be well capable of defending our own shores from any threats. The notion that the US can continue to control developments in Asia and Eurasia is psychotically delusional.

Posted by: Mike R | Sep 16 2023 20:52 utc | 63

I don't know much about missiles or ships, so just for clarification, is this comment accurate or hyperbole? I assume that all modern ships were designed to withstand a single missile hit, but I also assumet that modern missiles are designed to take that into account, so... ?

Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Sep 16 2023 20:37 utc | 57

---

I suspect the actual missile attack is preceded by an EMP strike. So there will probably always be more than one impact.

Posted by: Nobody | Sep 16 2023 20:52 utc | 64

"77% of young Americans would not qualify for military service without a waiver due to being overweight, using drugs or having mental and physical health problems."

This reminds me of the poor state of health of the British working class before the first World War, when 40% to 60% of volunteers were rejected on medical grounds.

Posted by: Pete Jones | Sep 16 2023 20:53 utc | 65

I am with psychohistorian and annie here.

Humanity better learn how to make and keep peace and not to wage war, or we might not have a lot of time left.

Posted by: askod | Sep 16 2023 20:54 utc | 66

@Ed5 | Sep 16 2023 19:42 utc | 50

Not likely in "minutes".

The problem right now is that the carriers move so striking them depends on keeping the missile updated with the target location until the on board seeker can see it.

China is now believed to have some satellites that can supply this data, in a least near realtime. The satellites and data transmission may or may not be jammable.

The carriers are always accompanied by multiple ships armed with missiles that *might* work against such a missle. How many of the VLS tubes are actually filled and carrying missiles that have a high pk is unknown.

So who knows, but if China has enough of those missiles they only need one to get though while the US Navy needs to be able to defeat all of the ones fired at it's carriers.

Re "minutes", fair enough. But "weeks" would still be devastating, especially if these missiles have global reach. Pearl Harbor for every US military port, all at once. Didn't I read about a test where a missile circled the Earth multiple times? Or is that a different technology?

Movement seems relative. Looking briefly, supposedly they (Nimitz-class) can do 30 knots and have a turning radius of around a half mile. They're maybe a kilometer long. So, from a side aspect, they take maybe 20s at full speed to get out of their own shadow? Or, if being pursued from behind, how fast can they move their stern "sideways"? Without doing the math, not very. Maybe like aiming at a barn that's being washed down a river in a flood.

That said, it seems like a stern entry with downward trajectory would do more damage. Harder to aim than a side shot, though.

If the missiles are at all steerable, the machine learning task of "spot a carrier and aim at it" sounds insanely easy. They may as well have bar codes painted on them.


Or, taking a different tack, I saw video today of a fireworks-style light show in China that was maybe 1000 drones acting in very precise coordination. Imagine 10,000 of those swarming an aircraft carrier. Even if they were only moving at 1m/s and carrying what amounts to a grenade, this might destroy the usability of a carrier. Not sunk--just can't ever put anything on deck.

I've no particular knowledge, but it seems like we're passing an inflection point in military history. Challenger 2 tanks might not be worthless, but I wouldn't want to be in one in a war zone these days.

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Sep 16 2023 20:58 utc | 67

Posted by: bubbles | Sep 16 2023 20:37 utc | 56

China is not on the dark side of the moon.

I'm a foreigner living in China for the past 10 years. The progress in the last 10 years is nothing short of astonishing.

I'd change nationality immediately except for 1.44 billion reasons arguing against me.

Posted by: Surferket | Sep 16 2023 21:00 utc | 68

Sorry you're too unhealthy to die. In future make sure to look after yourself in case we need you to assault a meaningless hill. Go to the gym, get regular health checks, take your vitamins and carefully choose your diet: what's the point of systematically exposing you to life-destroying risk if you're already exposing yourself to it? It just wouldn't be fun. But not as much fun as the look on your face when you realized you lost your leg and got PTSD so some boomer's share portfolio could gain 2.3% increase in dividend yield—YOY of course.

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 16 2023 21:03 utc | 69

China's Communist Party is at the helm of an apparently hyper-capitalist state, and Russia has no officially anti-capitalist pretensions, none that I know of. And yet it looks like absurd vicissitudes of extreme capitalism have completely destroyed the US military, from recruitment to procurement. Nobody wants to sign up, and we're being sold a heap of very expensive junk.

This is a very serious question: Why it this? Chinese and Russian capitalists are also interested in making a living, but somehow their capacities don't completely rot in the cesspool of corporate fraud (not to mention general societal alienation). "When it comes time to hang the capitalists, they will vie with each other for the rope contract," they say -- especially so in exceptionally senescent regimes, such as USA.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Sep 16 2023 21:04 utc | 70

It is an astonishing paradox that a nation and society whose main reason for existence now is to wage war against anybody and everybody to maintain its top dog status has armed forces whose cultures are riddled with and pressured by top-heavy hierarchies, and interference from politicians obsessed with getting re-elected (so they can continue living lavishly and ideologies compelling them to rely on private corporations to build and supply the hardware they need or supposedly need at such high costs (to enable graft). But when certain cultural values like exceptionalism and evangelism combine with a rapacious neocapitalist ideology that prioritises greed, bullying and outright savagery against competitors over all other considerations, we should not be surprised that the results are not only wasteful, but that they are astronomically so.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Sep 16 2023 21:04 utc | 71

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 16 2023 18:42 utc | 27

################

If I was Catholic that response might actually mean something to me.

It is interesting that you invoke hypocrisy. That is fairly universal across all demographics, races, and religions.

You're the one who thinks humans are so great, not me.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 16 2023 21:07 utc | 72

The reason that the military is having trouble recruiting is that the populace has figured out that all of our wars are wars of choice. The US has not faced an existential threat since WWII. I think if we were actually facing an existential threat, many Americans would rally to America's defense but die for some friggin' politician's ego? You go.

Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Sep 16 2023 21:08 utc | 73

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Sep 16 2023 21:04 utc | 71

It would be less astonishing to you if you read Marx.

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 16 2023 21:16 utc | 74

Soothsayer......here are some facts........
-Two Russian ship in drydock were damaged, none were destroyed. Black Sea fleet's operational capacity is unaffected.
-McGregor says two weeks, I say one month until Kabul II starts the mass exit of the corrupt in Kieve to the Tel Aviv, Geneva and Nassau with their cash load courtesy of the US Treasury. Total collapse is imminent.
-AFU now has no ability to conduct offensive operaions in the field, they have used up most of the 155mm ammo NATO gave them, and have no ability to restock 152mm ammo either having borrowed all the old Soviet ammo from the old Eastern block already. The US only has one 155mm ammo plant to supply the US and NATO so the cupboards are bare. Is it any wonder that AFU arty fire has dramatically dropped? Their supply chain is now dry. Add that to the armor massacre that has occurred since June 4th, with over 2500 MBT's, IVF's, APC's, and MRAP's blown to bits by Lancet, and Kornet drones and missiles, plus the wholesale destruction of entire NATO trained infantry brigades tells the whole story.
Done as dinner..........
-Reps in the House are about to cut Ukrainian pork out the budget, so the days of wine and roses are over.

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Sep 16 2023 21:22 utc | 75

Posted by: Neocons | Sep 16 2023 20:51 utc | 62

to wtf comment do you refer?

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 16 2023 21:23 utc | 76

Only a vast new social contract can turn that around, something like the PRC and Russia are doing. Quid quo goddam pro MFers.

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 16 2023 20:18 utc | 54

Said vast new social contract you refer to means Corporate America and the Barons of Wall St. giving up a significant part of their profits and thus incentives to those who stood on the balconies raising glasses of champagne to mock the Occupy Wall St. protesters. Remember those images? Nothing much has changed, the class war in America and in the Western world continues as it has since the days of the Robber Barons, as it is designed to.

Now here's the rub, the main problem the proletariat has is they need the Barons and their capital to maintain themselves, as they have neither capital nor the knowledge of how to accumulate it nor the will. Yeah it's an ugly truth. Every attempt to change the equation I know of has ended the same way, the robbers out maneuvered the producers
by creating bottlenecks, by expanding control of shipping and marketing which was buttressed by their political influence.

It's a reality farmers live decade after decade and a model that has been expanded exponentially, Governments were of course happy to serve Corporate interests as said corporations have accountants, who prepare tax returns and the simple mind thinks that's a fine thing as the government man gets his taxes due. As opposed to all those damn independent farmers who were surely cheating the government's men out of their fair share of the farmers labor..

Hard labor back in the day I might add, different from standing up in a legislature some where spouting political talking points and taking a bow when the home team reacted with great applause..

Posted by: bubbles | Sep 16 2023 21:24 utc | 77

PSA for ESL speakers: to nominate

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 16 2023 21:27 utc | 78

All civilian and military shipping from or to the US would be targeted/destroyed in a fight with China/Russia. End of story.

Posted by: Zakukommander | Sep 16 2023 21:27 utc | 79

Here comes "service as a path to citizenship" to those not overweight illegals.

Couple that with active tracking and deportation, and suddenly you have a million volunteers.

After all, the open borders policy may not just be incompetence.

Posted by: Extyrene | Sep 16 2023 21:28 utc | 80

You're the one who thinks humans are so great, not me.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 16 2023 21:07 utc | 72

He ain't lying. He's a veritable self hating human. Lots of those around today.

It's almost like someone is engineering this attitude. I wonder who might benefit from having human beings depressed and hating themselves with no hope for the future.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 16 2023 21:38 utc | 81

@Ed5 | Sep 16 2023 19:42 utc | 50
Boris Badenov | Sep 16 2023 20:58 utc | 67

I am no military expert but this is what I think is the situation.

The targeting of the stern of a carrier or other warship is on a horizontal, not downwards, trajectory to spread destruction along the whole length of the ship. This would be done using a cruise type missile. Much like sending a cannonball bouncing through the gun deck of a sailing ship. In both cases creating a 'wounded' ship needing assistance.

The Chinese DF-10 or Russian Kinzhal are ballistic type missiles descending near vertically onto a ship, usually fused to pass through the ship so that the water assisted explosion underneath it breaks the keel, sinking it. This is similar to a torpedo blowing up under a ship rather than just blowing a hole in what will probably be a watertight compartment in the ship's side. If a carrier this would, depending on the nearest land, leave many of its airborne aircraft with a bit of a problem.

Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 16 2023 21:42 utc | 82

Here are two obvious remedies for the US’s military shortcomings:

1–Close almost all of the US military bases that are scattered all over the world.
2–Stop getting into wars of choice.

There you have it. No more worries about troop shortages, replacement of casualties and mission command.


Posted by: Rob | Sep 16 2023 21:45 utc | 83

Posted by: bubbles | Sep 16 2023 21:24 utc | 77

Considering how management and ownership have long been separated in large corporations, I'm curious as to why you think their "knowledge" are necessary for the proletariat "to maintain themselves".

Of course, the proletariat does need those means of production, but the means of production do not have to be organized into the form of capital.

It's true that, as you say, self-employed people are more likely to evade tax. But they are still relatively uncompetitive under capitalism. Corporate concentration in the US would be much more pronounced if it weren't for the large number of hedge funds and private funds organized as LLCs.

Of course, aspiring self-employed people object to monopoly companies reaping benefits through politics, even though that's exactly where capitalism originated: vast wealth grabbed from government tax revenue through the military-industrial complex and government subsidies.

If you don't believe it, just look at how Britain in the Napoleonic wars built an army one tenth the strength of Napoleon's with the same expenditure.

Posted by: Colin | Sep 16 2023 21:47 utc | 84

"... I wonder who might benefit from having human beings depressed and hating themselves with no hope for the future." Ahenobarbus@81

In the long term it wouldn't be the ruling class which needs the working people to create its wealth and, yes, fight for it and 'the country' (if not the King).

Which puts into perspective:

"A slide detailing the findings from the Pentagon's 2020 Qualified Military Available Study shared with Military.com shows a 6% increase from the latest 2017 Department of Defense research that showed 71% of Americans would be ineligible for service.

"When considering youth disqualified for one reason alone, the most prevalent disqualification rates are overweight (11%), drug and alcohol abuse (8%), and medical/physical health (7%)," the study, which examined Americans between the ages of 17 and 24, read. The study was conducted by the Pentagon's office of personnel and readiness..."

Just as in the First World War the British-confirming a lesson from the Boer war fifteen years earlier- discovered that, after a century of industrialism and liberalism, the average man was shorter, less healthy and less capable of the basic tasks of soldiering than his peasant ancestors had been. In those days north Americans tended to be giants in comparison with their European cousins- because they fed better. Jefferson had noted it in the 1790s, Cobbett in 1812. It was one of the benefits of the American system that Friedrich List studied, admired and tried to adapt for Germany.

Now all those advantages have gone: neoliberalism has done in the US what liberalism did in the UK, treating the working people so badly that both psychologically and physically they are increasingly unsuited for anything more than gaining weight, growing more apathetic, falling into hopeless depressions and dying young.

There is a reason why the Empire relies so heavily on proxy forces. The Romans ended up doing the same until their mercenary allies sacked Rome. Something similar is likely to happen in the USA if the current course of corruption, callousness and short term profit making (even infant medicine and healthcare is practised for profit at incalculable cost to the 'nation').

Of course as that great neo-liberal Maggie Thatcher pointed out 'There is no such thing as society.'
And where there is no society there is no nation either. And nobody both capable and willing to risk his life for them.

Posted by: bevin | Sep 16 2023 22:10 utc | 85

Posted by: Soothsayer | Sep 16 2023 17:29 utc | 1
-------------------------------------------------------
Soothsayer, you really are a dick. Troll at aisle# 1.

Posted by: Ed | Sep 16 2023 22:10 utc | 86

This is the bit that caught my eye. Remember all the talk of net-centric weapons systems? All talking to each other over high bandwidth data links and screen rich ops rooms. Fantastic for profit laden R&D contracts and high value contracts but in the real world faced with actual high power and performance EW. The super duper encryption to protect against the perceived threat is rather wasted when the signal itself is being swamped. Maybe the US Army never thought that products like the USAF Wild Weasel would be turned against them. Looks like a comback could be on the way for rolling out good old telephone wire bases systems.

So NATO is not only having to rethink its weapons' effectiveness and frontline strategy but also its entire command and communications structure.

Command and Control

Twenty years of counterinsurgency and counter terrorism operations in the Middle East, largely enabled by air, signals, and electromagnetic dominance, generated chains of command reliant on perfect, uncontested communication lines and an extraordinary and accurate common operating picture of the battlefield broadcast in real time to co-located staff in large Joint Operations Centers. The Russia-Ukraine War makes it clear that the electromagnetic signature emitted from the command posts of the past 20 years cannot survive against the pace and precision of an adversary who possesses sensor-based technologies, electronic warfare, and unmanned aerial systems or has access to satellite imagery; this includes nearly every state or nonstate actor the United States might find itself fighting in the near future.

The Army must focus on developing command-and-control systems and mobile command posts that enable continuous movement, allow distributed collaboration, and synchronize across all warfighting functions to minimize electronic signature.

Ukrainian battalion command posts reportedly consist of seven soldiers who dig in and jump twice daily; while that standard will be hard for the US Army to achieve, it points in a very different direction than the one we have been following for two decades of hardened command posts.

Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 16 2023 22:18 utc | 87

The Original is „Führen mit Auftrag“, not Auftragstaktik. The Bundeswehr does not use the Term Auftragstaktik in their Papers. It is historical and was not commun. More common in the 19th Century was the „Kult der Selbstständigkeit.“

„Auftragstaktik“ is, by the Way, not a Taktik, but a Philosophy how to lead.
It is between the authoritarian Leading and the Laisser-faire Leading, just right of the „situative Leading“ which mixes strict Orders and Mission Thinking.

Book I recommend: Marco Sigg „Der Unterführer als Feldherr im Taschenformat. Theorie und Praxis der Auftragstaktik im deutschen Heer 1869 bis 1945“
Posted by: Bergverrueckt | Sep 16 2023 19:34 utc | 47
-----------------------------------------------------------
Vielen Dank.

Ethnocentrism is easy in the USA. Always fun to hit at them.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 16 2023 22:27 utc | 88

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 16 2023 21:38 utc | 81

###############

I believe the name you're looking for is Satan.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 16 2023 22:34 utc | 89

Military shipbuilding capacity does not equate any civilian version.

The USN shipbuilding program, any time of the political and financial season, tries to keep its core production capability alive.

Across one river near which live Newport News (Huntington Ingalls) is building another carrier while finishing a second. It shares nuclear sub work with Electric Boat in Groton CT. The USN Portsmouth Naval Shipyard is around the corner. Overhaul, upgrades, etc. Bath Ironworks ME builds destroyers and whatever. Huntington-Ingalls builds whatever, non-nuclear. Bremerton WA is a large yard like Portsmouth VA. The Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery functions like its VA counterpart. Mare Island closed in 1996. San Diego likely has another yard.

New construction and overhaul is at the whims of the US politicians. There is no shortage of capacity. Why they are intended to be used for is a completely different question. I am not encouraging more new build. We can do enough damage with what we already have.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 16 2023 22:41 utc | 90

This is the bit that caught my eye. Remember all the talk of net-centric weapons systems? All talking to each other over high bandwidth data links and screen rich ops rooms. Fantastic for profit laden R&D contracts and high value contracts but in the real world faced with actual high power and performance EW. The super duper encryption to protect against the perceived threat is rather wasted when the signal itself is being swamped. Maybe the US Army never thought that products like the USAF Wild Weasel would be turned against them. Looks like a comback could be on the way for rolling out good old telephone wire bases systems.

So NATO is not only having to rethink its weapons' effectiveness and frontline strategy but also its entire command and communications structure. Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 16 2023 22:18 utc | 87

Actually, the US is already rethinking its entire C2 structure--just look at the DARPA-funded proposals over the past few years. I have no insider information, but it seems clear from the advertised programs that DoD is spending gobs of money to:

1) remove reliance of GPS or any satellite technology by using more accurate atomic clocks and positioning
2) going to high bandwidth line of sight comms, which are *much* harder to detect and intercept than generic comms
3) find ways to communicate within congested EM spectrum
4) find ways to detect illicit communication within congested spectrum
5) provide multiple paths of information routing so that blocking or destroying individual nodes will not noticeably affect communications
6) develop antennas that hide the existence of comms structures
7) automate procedures for improving the quality of information/identifying disinformation
8) increasing decision making and computational processing "at the edge" rather than depending on centralized decision making

Is this a good use of money/will it go anywhere/is it even worthwhile if it does get developed? I have no idea. But the intent is clearly there.

Posted by: Comacho in Chief | Sep 16 2023 22:44 utc | 91

"As opposed to all those damn independent farmers who were surely cheating the government's men out of their fair share of the farmers labor"
Posted by: bubbles | Sep 16 2023 21:24 utc | 77

"It's true that, as you say, self-employed people are more likely to evade tax."
Posted by: Colin | Sep 16 2023 21:47 utc | 84

#####
Omg. What sort of idiotic exchange is that?

Bubbles, were you being facetious and Colin fell for it? Or do you seriously believe that hard working farmers have not been overtaxed since biblical times?

And Colin, I am ROTFLMAO. Do you seriously, seriously believe that self employed small businesses evade/avoid tax more than the corporate robber barons? You've obviously never been a small business proprietor you smug, salaried prick. Small businesses are the glue which hold societies together between the top (capitalist corporations, the so-called nation builders) and the bottom (salaried consumers).

You're both just too stupid for any more words. Go plant a field, watch the weather destroy 6 months work, and then cry in bed with your wife that the bank might foreclose on your property because your tax bill is greater than your profit.

Posted by: SCCC | Sep 16 2023 22:49 utc | 92

Posted by: Soothsayer | Sep 16 2023 17:41 utc | 7

"Russian Duma parliamentarian and former Commander of the Southern Military District (the headquarters of which Wagner soldiers surrounded in Rostov in June) Andrei Gurulev writes [t.me/agurulev/3756]"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have bad news for everyone who comments at MoA: Soothsayers has delivered us devastating news that Russia will soon be defeated based on the "alleged" written comments by a Russian Duma parliamentarian and former Commander of the Southern Military District named; Andrei Gurulev.

All hope is lost, and it is now time to remove our shirts and lash our bare back with cat of nine tails. Whoa with me, all is lost, Putin must step down and await the gallows. The AFU has learned to fight and now Russia is on the run. Oh, the shame of it all. Ukraine's victory is all but assured and I see only death and darkness in Russia's future.

Thank you, Soothsayer, for sharing Andrei Gurulev's honest assessment (if he is in fact, who you say he is). By the way, did Gurulev also offer any solutions that might help Russia, or did he just say whoa with me: All is lost; surrender or die?

Posted by: Ed | Sep 16 2023 22:50 utc | 93

Posted by: bevin | Sep 16 2023 22:10 utc | 85

The Americans were indeed giants compared to the Europeans at that time, and it still happened in WWI where Australians were giants compared to the British. The Australians were only a generation or two away from Great Britain's shores at most.

In addition, the Homeric Greeks , American Native Indians/Aboriginals and pastoral people then and now were /are all taller than Classical Greeks,White Man and agriculturalists respectively. All due to more fresh air,more Vitamin D from outdoor/huntergatherer activity,more livable room due to no city life and meat /fish/milk /fowl in the diet.Amazing.

Posted by: Wondrous | Sep 16 2023 22:59 utc | 94

The milk of human kindness, a Brit concept. By all means, don't hold back. This is America, no?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
"As opposed to all those damn independent farmers who were surely cheating the government's men out of their fair share of the farmers labor"
Posted by: bubbles | Sep 16 2023 21:24 utc | 77

"It's true that, as you say, self-employed people are more likely to evade tax."
Posted by: Colin | Sep 16 2023 21:47 utc | 84
#####
Omg. What sort of idiotic exchange is that?

Bubbles, were you being facetious and Colin fell for it? Or do you seriously believe that hard working farmers have not been overtaxed since biblical times?

And Colin, I am ROTFLMAO. Do you seriously, seriously believe that self employed small businesses evade/avoid tax more than the corporate robber barons? You've obviously never been a small business proprietor you smug, salaried prick. Small businesses are the glue which hold societies together between the top (capitalist corporations, the so-called nation builders) and the bottom (salaried consumers).

You're both just too stupid for any more words. Go plant a field, watch the weather destroy 6 months work, and then cry in bed with your wife that the bank might foreclose on your property because your tax bill is greater than your profit.
Posted by: SCCC | Sep 16 2023 22:49 utc | 92

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 16 2023 22:59 utc | 95

The problem right now is that the carriers move so striking them depends on keeping the missile updated with the target location until the on board seeker can see it.

Posted by: Ed5 | Sep 16 2023 19:42 utc | 50

The Chinese DF-26 goes up to a height of 4500 km, and then goes down at a speed of up to mach 18, about 6000 km per second. DF-26 is not a surface skimmer.
The fastest US aircraft carrier goes at maybe 60km per hour, top speed, and stopping or a sharp turn needs miles.

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 16 2023 23:05 utc | 96

"...countless millions of troops...?"

in fact not at all🤷🤡

Posted by: TGL | Sep 16 2023 20:50 utc | 61

Currently ukrainians are committing mass national suicide by hurling themselves at russian positions; the taiwanese will do something similar. I would bet plenty of other nations such as Poland, Japan etc can be employed as disposable human ammunition at american discretion.

Posted by: Satepestage | Sep 16 2023 23:13 utc | 97

Someone here earlier made a pronounced statement that needs elaborating on , "US ran out of second rate armies to pick on" or words to that effect. Apologies for for repeating comment verbatim or attributing author. You know who you are and I thank you.

Iran and North Korea. For years, all the usual suspects would deride any military technology achievements by these countries as outright fakes or superficially similar but not in capability.
US carriers and the best air defenses in Isreal couldn't prevent constant drone incursions. The US wS powerless in stopping Irainian ballistic missiles despite advance warning. More to the point, the successful hijack of an advance drone and even more spectacular take down of another drone meant the US had lost technology supremacy.
The US had a "brilliant" idea to saturate Sth Korea and Japan with Aegis Ashore systems. The plan was together with Aegis equipped ships, to track and intercept Nth Korean ballistic missile tests. Mission failed.

Take on Russia and China? There was an ad on NZ TV with a Kiwi child asking his Aussie friend if he could give him a hand on the weekend with a building project. The answer is
"Maaate, yer dreaaaammming!"

Posted by: Suresh | Sep 16 2023 23:13 utc | 98

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 16 2023 23:05 utc | 96

Correction: I got peak altitude wrong, seems to be 1300km.
open Source Analysis

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 16 2023 23:19 utc | 99

LoveDonbass | Sep 16 2023 22:34 utc |

#89 and others preceding.

###

As much as I like reading your thoughtful, compassionate posts, at the risk of wandering OT and into religious matters, I'd like to point out your theological inconsistencies as regards "evil" in the world.

Your faith famously ascribes to Satan being the cause of evil. But as we see, man/woman are WILFULLY (ie, freewill) doers of the evil deeds. You might argue that Satan "lives in their hearts" and "makes them do it". But, for an athest or a hypocritical Christian, this makes no sense. All such decisions by the evil warmongers are made through rational motives, thus discounting any Satanic influence! Or perhaps Satan lives in the minds, too!

Personally, I give the evildoers full agency for their deeds. No need to bring in a metaphysical entity. Just as for good deeds -- they don't all have to come from God's beneficent will. Both atheists and the religious can be good and bad people! Thus I'm puzzled as to how Satan decides which hearts and minds to dwell in.

Posted by: SCCC | Sep 16 2023 23:21 utc | 100

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