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Ukrainian Whoppers
Propaganda only works so long.
Ukraine’s Military Claims to Have Killed the Head of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet – New York Times
Ukraine’s military asserted on Monday that it had killed the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in a missile attack last week, which, if confirmed, would make the strike among the most damaging for the Russian Navy since the sinking of the fleet’s flagship last year.
There was no immediate comment from Moscow’s Defense Ministry on the status of its fleet commander, Adm. Viktor Sokolov, who is one of the most senior figures in the Russian Navy. Ukraine’s claim could not be independently verified.
Ukraine’s special operations forces on Friday said they had struck a headquarters of the Russian fleet in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, a storied port that is now under regular bombardment from Ukraine’s long-range missiles and exploding drones. Fleet officers were holding a meeting there at the time, the Ukrainian military said.
Russian sources say that no one was in the very exposed building when the Ukrainian missiles hit. The real headquarter is underground in an unknown place.
Today there was an expanded Board meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry in Moscow (machine translation):
Opening the meeting, the Defense Minister briefly highlighted the situation in the special military operation zone.
"Groups of Russian troops," he said, " continue active operations to defeat the enemy. Thanks to the professionalism and courage of the personnel of the 25th and 138th motorized rifle brigades in the Kupyansk direction, the control zone near the settlements of Sinkovka and Petropavlovsk was significantly expanded. As a result of effective fire damage, the armed forces of Ukraine are suffering serious losses along the entire line of contact.
During the current month, more than 17 thousand people, more than 2,700 weapons and military equipment were destroyed, including 7 American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, 77 American M777 artillery systems, 51 self-propelled artillery installations from Germany, France, Poland and the United States of America, as well as two German Leopard tanks and one English tank "Challenger".
The commander of the Black Sea fleet, Adm. Viktor Sokolov, took part in the briefing via a live TV link.
Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch – 10:29 UTC · Sep 26, 2023
Russian MoD released a photo of a claimed meeting today between Shoigu and military commanders, with Black Sea Fleet Admiral Sokolov participating (bottom on the left) and not dead as has been alleged No way to verify the date of the photo though
And now video of Shoigu’s speech. I think this is now a pretty good proof of life that Sokolov didn’t die on the strike on Black Sea Fleet HQ
full video
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Another whopper comes from the neoconservative Institute for the Study of War:
ISW @TheStudyofWar – 4:03 UTC · Sep 25, 2023
6/ Putin may have ordered the Russian military command to hold all Russia’s initial defensive positions to create the illusion that Ukrainian counteroffensives have not achieved any tactical or operational effects despite substantial Western support.
As one commentator remarked:
“Putin orders Russian army to win battle to create the illusion of having won battle”
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The White House has put out a letter with a list of demands Ukraine has to fulfill to receive further aid.
The "DELIBERATIVE // PRE-DECISIONAL WORKING DRAFT – SUBJECT TO REVIEW" five page letter includes the "Priority Reform List – Reforms Linked to Conditions on U.S. Assistance".
It demands a complete reform of major Ukrainian power structures and the insertion of designated foreign personnel. It sets 3, 6 and 12 month limits for certain reforms to be achieved.
Examples:
Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) Reform : Implement newly enacted law #3277-IX by standing up the Advisory Group of Experts with the meaningful participation of Venice Commision, EU, and U.S. nominated experts and supporting the vetting process of CCU judge candidates. *Passage of #3277 was one of seven requirements for Ukraine to begin EU accession process.
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Ministry of Defense (MOD) : o Without undermining readiness, re-design both military armament and public procurement processes and procedures reflecting NATO standards of transparency, accountability, efficiency, and competition in defense procurement.
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o Invest in Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) initiatives.
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Ministry of Strategic Industries / Ukraine Defense Industry (formerly UkrOboronProm) : Stand up UDI supervisory board that complies with OECD standards, including participation by foreign defense experts. Build stronger institutional connections (e.g., liaison or procurement offices) with MOD and General Staff planning, to ensure UDI’s work is aligned with the country’s most pressing needs. Ensure NATO standards of transparency, accountability, efficiency, and competition across the defense industrial sector. Institute transparency procedures (even taking into account wartime needs for secrecy) to allow later audit and avoid even the appearance of politicization or corruption in defense production.
I believe that the Ukrainian government currently has very different problems and priorities than those dreamed up in some offices in DC.
Pepe Escobar linked to a very informative report by Russian war correspondent Marat Khairullin, which is in Russian of course, “The main thing is at the front. How much longer to fight?”. It’s a rather long report; these are IMO the important excerpts:
Obviously, the most important layer here will be the question of the losses of Ukraine and ours. Of course, not decisive, but, nevertheless, influencing the final resolution of the question of the timing of the war.
So, once again, we state that it is not possible to find exact figures for the enemy’s losses – Ukraine, it seems, does not even know how many people it loses during the hostilities. First of all, because the country’s leadership does not care deeply about this.
Even in numerous publications of the Western press, there is some puzzlement about this. Even a special wording was invented – “the insensitivity of Ukrainians to their own losses.” Insensitivity–just think about how much horror there is in this cold and polite word. There is so much cynicism, pain and some kind of boundless tragedy in this. A people “insensitive” to their own death is doomed. And I could actually see this “insensitivity”, for example, last night, when I was sitting at one of the battalion command posts, watching how our First Slavyansk brigade worked….
And this peculiarity of the Ukies – almost without hesitation, to beat on their own, if only the position did not go to us – I have been observing since the beginning of the war.
For us, normal people, to look at it from the outside is pure horror, a nightmare that suddenly became a reality.
But the Ukrainian leadership even flaunts this, for example, when it boasts of its endless cemeteries in front of the owners – that’s how many people we put for the sake of your interests. It is clear that it is useless for the leaders of the nation, who behave so irrationally, to give any reasonable arguments about the end of the war – they absolutely do not care how many thousands of Ukrainian corpses are piled in front of them.
But the worst thing is that the nation does not care.
And, nevertheless, despite this terrible “insensitivity”, the question of the ratio of losses is very important, because in the end, sooner or later, there will come a time when the army of the Fritz will exude itself so much in battles that the conveyor of the Ukrainian meat processing plant will cease to cope with the supply of raw materials to the front line….
However, let’s return to our topic – how to estimate our losses, given that our Ministry of Defense has not published official figures for a long time. And I personally, under conditions of military censorship, do not have the right to cite even estimated figures.
It is very simple to get out of the situation: you need to analyze the real picture of what is happening….
For example, I know the exact figures of our losses in the last three or four weeks in my native First Slavic Brigade, but unfortunately, due to military censorship, I have no right to voice. But again, this can be done indirectly. Let me remind you that in early September, the positions of Slavyanka were hit by fresh forces of very well-trained marines from the 36th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred here. For a week they tried to gnaw through our positions from different directions. As a result, having lost more than a company, the Ukies were forced to leave this direction. And our brigade went forward without any interruption and for the third week has been biting off one enemy supporter after another. And all this on their own, without the support of other units, except for the regular ones. And he does it to this day. And exactly the same thing happens, for example, on the right face of the defense of Bakhmut, where in the area of Berkhovka our troops unexpectedly launched an offensive yesterday and entered the very important village of Orekhovo-Vasilyevka. It’s as simple as that, without concentrating resources and forces, without involving additional units – yesterday the unit was on the defensive, and today it suddenly went on the offensive. This, as well as just says that our army is in very good shape and, despite the constant attacks of the enemy, suffers such insignificant losses that they can safely move from defense to attack.
In other words, our troops have been demonstrating amazing stability for many months now. And most importantly, our military has groped for a certain formula for conducting combat operations, which allows us to destroy the enemy at a speed of 500 thousand people a year, and at the same time incur minimal losses. And among other things, there are two variables in this formula, a kind of progressive coefficients. The first of them is growing all the time – this is our industry that is gaining momentum, which is successfully and steadily increasing the production of ammunition and new equipment. The general state of our economy, which is feeling better and better, sits in the same coefficient. Much better than before the start of the war. And the second coefficient is negative. It includes the systematic destruction of Ukraine’s industry, including our ever-increasing strikes. As well as the ever-declining support for Ukrainians by Western countries, and the generally deteriorating economy of both Ukraine and the West. [My Emphasis]
Russia’s active defense allows the flexibility noted in the report. And as indicated, more such local counter-attacks are happening against depleted, demoralized Ukie troops, whose surrender rates have skyrocketed. Yesterday, I reported that the 30 day weather forecast is for very little to no rain along the FEBA. Of course, I’ve no idea what Russia’s plans are, but I expect more of a push being made along the Northern portion of the FEBA as what remains of the Ukie offensive seems to have shifted to the Kherson region.
As Crooke emphasized in his interview yesterday, the Ukies lack bodies to feed into the meat grinder, which was also stated in the above report. The announcement that pharmacists of both genders would be liable for conscription where they were previously exempted generated a panicked exodus. As a nation, Ukraine may not care, but individuals who know the score are now fleeing as best they can.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 26 2023 16:37 utc | 85
Pepe Escobar linked to a very informative report by Russian war correspondent Marat Khairullin, which is in Russian of course, “The main thing is at the front. How much longer to fight?”. It’s a rather long report; these are IMO the important excerpts:
Obviously, the most important layer here will be the question of the losses of Ukraine and ours. Of course, not decisive, but, nevertheless, influencing the final resolution of the question of the timing of the war.
So, once again, we state that it is not possible to find exact figures for the enemy’s losses – Ukraine, it seems, does not even know how many people it loses during the hostilities. First of all, because the country’s leadership does not care deeply about this.
Even in numerous publications of the Western press, there is some puzzlement about this. Even a special wording was invented – “the insensitivity of Ukrainians to their own losses.” Insensitivity–just think about how much horror there is in this cold and polite word. There is so much cynicism, pain and some kind of boundless tragedy in this. A people “insensitive” to their own death is doomed. And I could actually see this “insensitivity”, for example, last night, when I was sitting at one of the battalion command posts, watching how our First Slavyansk brigade worked….
And this peculiarity of the Ukies – almost without hesitation, to beat on their own, if only the position did not go to us – I have been observing since the beginning of the war.
For us, normal people, to look at it from the outside is pure horror, a nightmare that suddenly became a reality.
But the Ukrainian leadership even flaunts this, for example, when it boasts of its endless cemeteries in front of the owners – that’s how many people we put for the sake of your interests. It is clear that it is useless for the leaders of the nation, who behave so irrationally, to give any reasonable arguments about the end of the war – they absolutely do not care how many thousands of Ukrainian corpses are piled in front of them.
But the worst thing is that the nation does not care.
And, nevertheless, despite this terrible “insensitivity”, the question of the ratio of losses is very important, because in the end, sooner or later, there will come a time when the army of the Fritz will exude itself so much in battles that the conveyor of the Ukrainian meat processing plant will cease to cope with the supply of raw materials to the front line….
However, let’s return to our topic – how to estimate our losses, given that our Ministry of Defense has not published official figures for a long time. And I personally, under conditions of military censorship, do not have the right to cite even estimated figures.
It is very simple to get out of the situation: you need to analyze the real picture of what is happening….
For example, I know the exact figures of our losses in the last three or four weeks in my native First Slavic Brigade, but unfortunately, due to military censorship, I have no right to voice. But again, this can be done indirectly. Let me remind you that in early September, the positions of Slavyanka were hit by fresh forces of very well-trained marines from the 36th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred here. For a week they tried to gnaw through our positions from different directions. As a result, having lost more than a company, the Ukies were forced to leave this direction. And our brigade went forward without any interruption and for the third week has been biting off one enemy supporter after another. And all this on their own, without the support of other units, except for the regular ones. And he does it to this day. And exactly the same thing happens, for example, on the right face of the defense of Bakhmut, where in the area of Berkhovka our troops unexpectedly launched an offensive yesterday and entered the very important village of Orekhovo-Vasilyevka. It’s as simple as that, without concentrating resources and forces, without involving additional units – yesterday the unit was on the defensive, and today it suddenly went on the offensive. This, as well as just says that our army is in very good shape and, despite the constant attacks of the enemy, suffers such insignificant losses that they can safely move from defense to attack.
In other words, our troops have been demonstrating amazing stability for many months now. And most importantly, our military has groped for a certain formula for conducting combat operations, which allows us to destroy the enemy at a speed of 500 thousand people a year, and at the same time incur minimal losses. And among other things, there are two variables in this formula, a kind of progressive coefficients. The first of them is growing all the time – this is our industry that is gaining momentum, which is successfully and steadily increasing the production of ammunition and new equipment. The general state of our economy, which is feeling better and better, sits in the same coefficient. Much better than before the start of the war. And the second coefficient is negative. It includes the systematic destruction of Ukraine’s industry, including our ever-increasing strikes. As well as the ever-declining support for Ukrainians by Western countries, and the generally deteriorating economy of both Ukraine and the West. [My Emphasis]
Russia’s active defense allows the flexibility noted in the report. And as indicated, more such local counter-attacks are happening against depleted, demoralized Ukie troops, whose surrender rates have skyrocketed. Yesterday, I reported that the 30 day weather forecast is for very little to no rain along the FEBA. Of course, I’ve no idea what Russia’s plans are, but I expect more of a push being made along the Northern portion of the FEBA as what remains of the Ukie offensive seems to have shifted to the Kherson region.
As Crooke emphasized in his interview yesterday, the Ukies lack bodies to feed into the meat grinder, which was also stated in the above report. The announcement that pharmacists of both genders would be liable for conscription where they were previously exempted generated a panicked exodus. As a nation, Ukraine may not care, but individuals who know the score are now fleeing as best they can.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 26 2023 16:37 utc | 86
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