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Ukraine SitRep: Western Military Commentators Finally Accept The Obvious
The Kuebler-Ross model of grief describes the human coping mechanism to deal with extremely difficult situations. It has five phases:
- denial – "No, not me, it cannot be true"
- anger – "Why me?"
- bargaining – attempting to postpone death with "good behaviour"
- depression – when reacting to their illness, and preparing for their death
- acceptance – "The final rest before the long journey"
With regard to the Ukrainian counter-offensive the last phase of the grief model has now been reached.
While not all politician are yet there, the military and intelligence specialists, who are part of the western propaganda squads, have made their conclusions. From their mouth the truth is dripping to the media. While the headlines below may not express it, the content of those pieces, especially in the first four, is finally admitting the obvious. It didn't work and the counter-offensive is done:
Simplicius has taken several of the above pieces apart and finds that they finally admit that the issue is lost:
Dire New Western Reports Call to Ditch NATO Tactics
Plus a roundup of other grist from the Western propaganda mill
Nothing of the above is new to Moon of Alabama readers. I may have helped to spare you the grief by not clinging to a the narrative but to the reality of the battlefield:
This outcome of the counteroffensive against the hardened Russian defense lines was predictable (May 11!):
In military books this is know as 'echeloned defense' with three lines of well prepared positions ten kilometer apart from each other. Each line consists of tank obstacles, mine belts, prepared anti-tank positions to monitor and counter potential breach attempts and well prepared artillery support from behind the next defense line.
To crack such a nut without air support and without significant artillery advantage is nearly impossible.
But the Ukrainians did even worse than I had thought. The delaying action by the Russian army stopped them before they even reached the first defense line.
What may come next was predicted here on June 5, the day the counter-offensive was launched:
I strongly suspect that the Russian military will let the Ukrainian attacks run their course to then launch its own larger scale attacks against weakened Ukrainian defenses.
But to this day and while taking heavy losses the Ukrainian army is still running head first into a wall of Russian fire and concrete barriers. It may well keep going for another few weeks until the rain seasons sets in. That will lessen the chance of a renewed Russian attack. I have no idea yet of what might come instead of one.
To cope with the situation and bad news the U.S. will now send in a new wonder-weapon, the ATAMCS missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometer (190 miles). They come in several variants but the U.S. army will only be willing to hand over its older ones and only a few. The missiles are GPS guided which is unlikely to work well as Russia has sufficient electronic warfare assets that will disturb those signals. Some of these missiles will just divert from their target. Some will be shot down by air defenses. Some will come through. The 230 kilogram warhead can create quite a mess if it hits a large headquarter.
But keep in mind that the Russian forces are now regularly using FAB 500 glide bombs that come with nearly 500 kilogram of explosives. The bigger FAB 1500 have been tested too and are ready to be deployed. The new ATAMCS missiles will thereby not change the balance of force.
Former ambassador MK Bhadrakumar is sensing some diplomatic noise that might point to upcoming talks.
Ice cracking sounds on frozen lake of US-Russia relations
Talks may well follow but I would not expect any agreement. The Russian side will hold up its demands and the U.S. will still be unwilling to fulfill them. Not even a ceasefire will result from them.
I write here just to address Pacifica’s point at @7, which is dead-on accurate I think. First comment ever here, but love this site B. So good.
This is kind of a general plea, but we get so lost in the politics, and this team or that team, it’s as if we’ve failed to figure out that the whole damn system is rotten, both teams. As the Founding Fathers realized, this is what poisoned so many governments in Greece and Rome and throughout history.
In any event, Trump was basically a 1980s Democrat who loves the country, hates wars, and just likes doing deals. Remember that MSNBC interview, where they listed out a bunch of positions and Trump is like, hey, you’re describing me, and they said no, that’s Bernie Sanders’ platform. LOL. He is very close to the Kennedy family, which is why he and RFK do not attack each other. I would love to see that combined ticket. I truly believe that 2016 was the last free election, and the deep state was so sure he was going to get beaten in a landslide they did not activate all their plans/contingencies.
In any event, look at what Trump said on the campaign trail with regard to Russia. Why can’t we get along?? What idiot wants to start WWIII??
Indeed. And then look how Trump dealt with China. Yes, he had very serious hawks on China on his team, but it really dealt with trade and business. Repeatedly, he made the comment that he doesn’t blame China for these crappy trade deals and eating our lunch, they are just doing what’s right for them, he blames our stupid leaders for allowing this to take place and completely hollowing out our industrial capacity. It is the fault of OUR politicians. That was completely respectful to the Chinese. (And of course, he would scapegoat this or that, such as Corona stuff, but that is just politics, even the Chinese get that)
As Pacifica said, Trump can be manipulated by the oligarchs, but it’s even deeper than that. Understand how our entire system has been hijacked to work against the PEOPLE and for the benefit of the few at the top. Trump wanted no wars. Trump wanted to pardon Assange and Snowden any many others (he was threatened with immediate impeachment conviction if he did so). He wanted better labor deals and to secure the country.
The guy was impeached twice for essentially nothing. The Democrats were firing at will. And HIS OWN PARTY hated him. Opened up all these idiotic investigations like Russiagate. FFS, that scumbag Paul Ryan wouldn’t even give him money to build the wall, which is the issue he won on. The deep state of McConnell, et al., had at their fingertips the ability to convict him with 20 GOP Senators standing at the ready if Trump went too far off the reservation. I think everyone has to remember that.
If one studies his errors, just consider what was arrayed against him. The Soleimani attack. True, I did not like that, but Trump was the only thing standing in the way of a full blown war against Iran. The MIC had those plans ready and literally said let’s do it and put it before him. Trump said no.
Sending weaponry to Ukraine. Again, the WHOLE system was saying he was a puppet of Russia, so of course he was boxed into that corner. If he said no, can you imagine the fury of the system saying, see, we told you so!!
Pacifica, I’m not sure about MacGregor, and I’m willing to give some benefit of the doubt here b/c I really like his thoughts on Ukraine and military matters generally, but I do worry about any saber rattling with China. It makes no sense and is idiotic. They had nothing to do with the opiod plague. All one needs to do is look at the Sackler family and that whole rotten cabal and so many towers of power would come down if the people knew and the fury was put in the right direction. But certain ethnic clans and regulatory agencies would get nervous. There was a 25 page or so New Yorker article on that that was just brilliant.
It’s amazing how much the system is against the people. You had Walgreens pharmacists refusing to fill prescriptions for ivermectin, which is essentially aspirin, but if you need some opiods, just come on up, no problem!!
Sorry for the very long winded message. The American system is rotten to the core. The only people in the ring that actually care about the American PEOPLE and peace and lives throughout the world imho are Trump, RFK, and Sanders to some extent. I don’t trust anyone else quite frankly.
And finally, with the weaponization of the court system and these ridiculous indictments, which themselves are an indictment on the American populace as to the stupidity to which they have devolved and the darkness or partisanship that should have had these grand juries laughing this stuff out of the room, we are in sad and dark times now. Even though Hillary clearly was rotten to the core and an absolute criminal, I never supported anything criminal against her, you open that pandora’s box and you don’t know where it leads.
It’s why there’s a famous saying, grand juries are so retarded you can indict a ham sandwich. Very dark times ahead I think. The system is pulling out all the stops. I have no idea where this leads.
Posted by: Johnny | Sep 9 2023 17:32 utc | 95
I write here just to address Pacifica’s point at @7, which is dead-on accurate I think. First comment ever here, but love this site B. So good.
This is kind of a general plea, but we get so lost in the politics, and this team or that team, it’s as if we’ve failed to figure out that the whole damn system is rotten, both teams. As the Founding Fathers realized, this is what poisoned so many governments in Greece and Rome and throughout history.
In any event, Trump was basically a 1980s Democrat who loves the country, hates wars, and just likes doing deals. Remember that MSNBC interview, where they listed out a bunch of positions and Trump is like, hey, you’re describing me, and they said no, that’s Bernie Sanders’ platform. LOL. He is very close to the Kennedy family, which is why he and RFK do not attack each other. I would love to see that combined ticket. I truly believe that 2016 was the last free election, and the deep state was so sure he was going to get beaten in a landslide they did not activate all their plans/contingencies.
In any event, look at what Trump said on the campaign trail with regard to Russia. Why can’t we get along?? What idiot wants to start WWIII??
Indeed. And then look how Trump dealt with China. Yes, he had very serious hawks on China on his team, but it really dealt with trade and business. Repeatedly, he made the comment that he doesn’t blame China for these crappy trade deals and eating our lunch, they are just doing what’s right for them, he blames our stupid leaders for allowing this to take place and completely hollowing out our industrial capacity. It is the fault of OUR politicians. That was completely respectful to the Chinese. (And of course, he would scapegoat this or that, such as Corona stuff, but that is just politics, even the Chinese get that)
As Pacifica said, Trump can be manipulated by the oligarchs, but it’s even deeper than that. Understand how our entire system has been hijacked to work against the PEOPLE and for the benefit of the few at the top. Trump wanted no wars. Trump wanted to pardon Assange and Snowden any many others (he was threatened with immediate impeachment conviction if he did so). He wanted better labor deals and to secure the country.
The guy was impeached twice for essentially nothing. The Democrats were firing at will. And HIS OWN PARTY hated him. Opened up all these idiotic investigations like Russiagate. FFS, that scumbag Paul Ryan wouldn’t even give him money to build the wall, which is the issue he won on. The deep state of McConnell, et al., had at their fingertips the ability to convict him with 20 GOP Senators standing at the ready if Trump went too far off the reservation. I think everyone has to remember that.
If one studies his errors, just consider what was arrayed against him. The Soleimani attack. True, I did not like that, but Trump was the only thing standing in the way of a full blown war against Iran. The MIC had those plans ready and literally said let’s do it and put it before him. Trump said no.
Sending weaponry to Ukraine. Again, the WHOLE system was saying he was a puppet of Russia, so of course he was boxed into that corner. If he said no, can you imagine the fury of the system saying, see, we told you so!!
Pacifica, I’m not sure about MacGregor, and I’m willing to give some benefit of the doubt here b/c I really like his thoughts on Ukraine and military matters generally, but I do worry about any saber rattling with China. It makes no sense and is idiotic. They had nothing to do with the opiod plague. All one needs to do is look at the Sackler family and that whole rotten cabal and so many towers of power would come down if the people knew and the fury was put in the right direction. But certain ethnic clans and regulatory agencies would get nervous. There was a 25 page or so New Yorker article on that that was just brilliant.
It’s amazing how much the system is against the people. You had Walgreens pharmacists refusing to fill prescriptions for ivermectin, which is essentially aspirin, but if you need some opiods, just come on up, no problem!!
Sorry for the very long winded message. The American system is rotten to the core. The only people in the ring that actually care about the American PEOPLE and peace and lives throughout the world imho are Trump, RFK, and Sanders to some extent. I don’t trust anyone else quite frankly.
And finally, with the weaponization of the court system and these ridiculous indictments, which themselves are an indictment on the American populace as to the stupidity to which they have devolved and the darkness or partisanship that should have had these grand juries laughing this stuff out of the room, we are in sad and dark times now. Even though Hillary clearly was rotten to the core and an absolute criminal, I never supported anything criminal against her, you open that pandora’s box and you don’t know where it leads.
It’s why there’s a famous saying, grand juries are so retarded you can indict a ham sandwich. Very dark times ahead I think. The system is pulling out all the stops. I have no idea where this leads.
Posted by: Johnny | Sep 9 2023 17:32 utc | 96
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