Ukraine SitRep: Weird Claims, High Losses
The Economist continues its series of interviews related to war in Ukraine. This week it has a talk with Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence branch:
An interview with the head of Ukraine’s defence intelligence
Budanov comes off as a bit of a loudmouth with claims that diverge from reality:
Ukraine may already have drawn on limited numbers of its reserve troops, but Russia is now, in seeming desperation, known to be committing under-strength reserves that it had not planned to deploy until late October. “Contrary to what the Russian Federation declares, it has absolutely no strategic reserve,” the general says. Russia’s 25th Combined Arms Army, now being prematurely deployed in the eastern front around Lyman and Kupyansk, has only 80% of the manpower and 55% of the equipment it was supposed to have, he says.
That seems to contradict the chief analyst of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency who the Economist interviewed just two weeks ago:
Ukrainian generals have told the Guardian newspaper that 80% of Russia’s effort went into building its first and second [defense] lines. But Mr Maul cautions that the bulk of Russia’s reinforcements remain at the third.
Budanov also has some strange believes about the state of Russia's economy:
Amid reports that Russia is poised to step up its ongoing mobilisation drive, General Budanov says that headcount is the only obvious advantage that Russia still retains over Ukraine. “Human resources in Russia are, relatively speaking, unlimited. The quality is low, but the quantity is sufficient.” As far as other components of the war effort are concerned, Russian resources are being exhausted, and a reckoning is coming. Russia’s economy will hold out only until 2025, he says. The flow of weapons will dry up in 2026, “perhaps earlier”, he asserts—though the evidence to support his claims is patchy.
Back in May the Economist reported that the cost of the war is a minor issue to Russia:
Yet all this damage has come at a relatively mild cost to Russia. As we have reported, its economy is holding up much better than almost anyone expected. And the direct fiscal cost of the war—what it is spending on men and machines—is surprisingly low.Russia’s budget is murky—especially its military one. So our estimate of what Russia is spending on invading Ukraine is imprecise. However, in consultation with various experts, and using our own analysis, we have come up with a figure. In essence this involved taking the Russian government’s pre-invasion forecast of what it would spend on defence and security, and comparing that with what it is actually spending. That would put the cost of its invasion at 5trn roubles ($67bn) a year, or 3% of GDP.
That is, by historical standards, a puny amount.
Russia's economy is in fact booming:
Moscow's economy has grown by more than a fifth over the past five years despite facing serious challenges during that time, according to Deputy Mayor for Economic Policy Vladimir Efimov.Despite facing economic headwinds such as the Covid-19 pandemic and Western sanctions, the Russian capital experienced substantial growth, which was driven in particular in industry, finance and telecommunications, he said on Wednesday at the Urban Forum.
Just today President Putin also gave an optimistic forecast for Russia's economy:
The Russian economy has recovered, and the country has successfully withstood sanctions pressure, President Vladimir Putin said on Monday.“In general, we can say that the restoration of the Russian economy has been completed. We withstood absolutely unprecedented external pressure, the sanctions onslaught of some ruling elites in the so-called Western bloc, some ruling elites in certain countries, which we call unfriendly," Putin stated at a meeting on the planning of the federal budget for 2024.
Moreover, Russia's GDP growth may amount to 2.5-2.8% by the end of the year, the president stressed.
The Economist is very polite when it calls the support for Budanov claims as "patchy". There simply is no support for his assertions and the data we have points to the opposite of what he claims.
Lunatic claims from Ukraine have become routine:
Ukraine has liberated Donetsk Oblast's village of Andriivka, located south of Bakhmut, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Sept. 15.
...
Later the same day, the 3rd Assault Brigade confirmed that the settlement had been retaken, adding that Ukrainian forces dealt a crushing blow to the Russian 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade in the course of battle.According to the 3rd Brigade's report, the Russian formation lost its chief of intelligence, three commanders, almost all of its infantry, including officers, and a significant amount of equipment.
Here is an aerial picture of Andrivka before the war.

bigger
It consists of two roads with some 40 houses and had a prewar population of some 80 people. How a significant part of a whole brigade with some 3,500 men and their ~700 trucks and armored vehicles supposedly got lost in such a small place is unexplained. At most there were probably one or two Russian companies with 100 men each defending that town. It took the Ukrainian military several weeks and many dead men to conquer the settlement. Andrivka is now gone. All its houses are in ruins. Just east of Andrivka runs an elevated railway line that will be difficult to cross. Why the Ukrainian army even tried to take that place is beyond me.
The Economist interview with Budanov does not touch on Ukrainian losses and human reserves. But yesterday's daily summary by the Ukrainian news site Strana emphasizes the importance of that point [edited machine translation]:
A prolonged war of attrition - and this is the stage the conflict is entering - poses a very painful question for Ukraine about reserves to make up for losses.The scale of these losses was recently revealed by the head of the Poltava regional mobilization center Vitaliy Berezhnoy. Speaking at the city council, he said that out of every 100 people mobilized in the fall of last year, 10-20 remained, the rest are dead, wounded and disabled.
These are losses at the level of 80-90%.
"In fact, these are true figures for our division as well... Some have even less (left in the ranks- Ed .), "commented sniper Konstantin Proshinsky, who is fighting near Bakhmut, with the call sign "Grandfather".
Also noteworthy is another figure voiced by Berezhny - the failure to implement the General Staff plan for mobilization. According to Berezhny, in Poltava, the plan was completed by only 13% and this is the worst indicator in the region (which is natural - in a large city it is easier to hide from mobilization than in a village or in a small town).
Usually a military unit which has lost more than 30% of its men and material is considered to be incapacitated. Such units should be pulled from the line of contact to be rebuild with new staff. The mix of old and new troops will then help in further operations.
A division that lost 80-90% is merely a small battalion made up from the hodgepodge of remaining soldiers. It certainly will not be able to launch any coordinated operation. It will also be impossible to rebuild it as it will lack the experienced management level of sergeants and officers. These people do not grow on trees. They require years of training.
Why Ukraine insist on attacking Russian forces instead of taking a defensive posture at some geographically protected line is impossible to understand. It is not rational.
People in the West who support this should be sued for the unnecessary losses that position is causing.
Posted by b on September 18, 2023 at 15:15 UTC | Permalink
next page »History may not repeat but it sure rhymes. 20 years ago America was yucking it up about Baghdad Bob. Now it's relying on Bucha Bud.
Posted by: Red Outsider | Sep 18 2023 15:27 utc | 2
If he’s the head of Ukrainian DI that explains a lot, he looks more at home in a stationers, where he could wax lyrical about the relative strengths of the pencils he stocks.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 18 2023 15:29 utc | 3
The reason why they "conquered" Andrejevka simply is, that in all their "Backhmut flanks offensive", starting mid May 2023, they had not "liberated" a single village on both flanks. So this is the first "victory" after more than 4 months of "offensive". It is Syrskij's brainchild, and has cost them thousands of soldiers and hundreds of pieces of heavy equipment.
Posted by: aquadraht | Sep 18 2023 15:41 utc | 4
thanks b... this Kyrylo Budanov is full of it and a needed asset for the west, lol..
what a sad kettle of fish, but i continue to blame the west, killing every ukrainian down to the last one..
Posted by: james | Sep 18 2023 15:47 utc | 5
As I posted before, western sanctions have given Russia' economy a major boost.
Putin had deals with foreign-based oligarchs who were still draining money from the economy from their Russian oil and metals companies. Now that sanctions have stopped capital flows, the same oligarchs have the money trapped in the Russian economy, and so seek to re-invest there. I expect such capital controls to be in place for many years. Putin loves this - if he had tried to stay the oligarchs himself they would have plotted against him.
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Sep 18 2023 15:49 utc | 6
The President's Office spent two months resolving the issue of purchasing old dry cargo ships, which will now be used to enter Odessa. Our source from the Office of the President reported that the goal is to provoke Russia into action.Bloomberg: Ukraine is challenging Russia's de facto blockade of its Black Sea ports. Two ships confirmed their readiness to use the route to Chernomorsk to load almost 20 thousand tons of wheat for Africa and Asia, said Minister of Infrastructure Alexander Kubrakov. The vessels fly the flag of Palau, and the crew members represent Turkey, Azerbaijan, Egypt and Ukraine. The vessels "Resilient Africa" and "Aroyat" are now located between the Danube Delta and Odessa.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/19691
Our source reports that the Russians are hitting the port infrastructure because they do not want to fall for the provocation prepared by the president’s office with the passage of ships along the “alternative grain” route. The real role and purpose of such an “alternative path” is to cause a direct attack by Russia on merchant ships.Now the fifth vessel, the bulk carrier PUMA (Cayman Islands), loaded with 16 thousand tons of metal and 14 thousand tons of rapeseed, has left the seaport of Odessa and headed to the Bosphorus along a temporary corridor in which the Russian Federation does not participate.
Data from the Marine Traffic portal indicate that the ship has already reached the port of Istanbul.
Russia decided to demolish the entire port infrastructure rather than sink the ships.
Then the ships will have nowhere to go to load. For example, the efficiency of the ports of Izmail and Reni has decreased by 45% since the end of the grain deal. Every day less and less cargo is shipped and loaded there.
People at Bankova are not particularly happy that the Russians did not fall for the prepared trap. This would be an excellent case before the UN General Assembly.
https://t.me/legitimniy/16276
Posted by: Down South | Sep 18 2023 15:55 utc | 7
See, the MSM back in 2003 would have called Budanov "Baghdad Bob" for this nonsensical stuff. But since he's BS'ing on the side of "freedom and justice", I guess the nonsense should remain unchallenged.
Lost causes breed this kind of delusional reporting ... the money needs to continue to flow, after all. The lies should be expected until the point where the truth becomes undeniable, at which time the whole thing will be dropped off the main pages, conveniently to be replaced by the next big thing.
Posted by: Caliman | Sep 18 2023 15:59 utc | 8
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President will not admit the failure of the counteroffensive when the rains begin and the advance slows down. Bankovaya will take advantage of Bakhmut’s experience, which is considered not lost by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and officially our military is still in the city, and the same will happen with the counter-offensive.The General Staff is already preparing updated plans for the Azov operation, the essence of which is a slow advance and the capture of one or two villages per month in order to demonstrate the dynamics of the advance.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/19712
Posted by: Down South | Sep 18 2023 16:00 utc | 9
The situation in the Kupyansk direction: enemy maneuvers - analysis from @Multi_XAMIn the Kupyansk area, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are active - units are being rotated in a truncated format; the enemy, understanding the complexity of the current situation, is transferring additional forces here, which are clearly not enough. The reason is that the most combat-ready units are deployed in the Zaporozhye ( in the Rabotino area ), South Donetsk ( Vremevsky ledge ), and Soledaro-Bakhmut directions.
Logistically, these sectors of the front are tied to a single rear base of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Dnepropetrovsk region. The transfer is carried out along the front line from Krivoy Rog ( exit to the Nikolaevo-Kherson direction ) to Pavlograd ( exit to Pokrovsk - former Krasnoarmeysk ), from where the branch diverges further to Slavyansk, Kurakhovo and Konstantinovka. There is no railway connection with Kupyansk, which creates serious difficulties in terms of transferring reserves. The main rotation forces are concentrated in the area of Staroverovka, Blagodatovka, Grushevka and Nechvolodovka, with a minimum of equipment.
As before, the main enemy forces are concentrated on the right bank of Kupyansk - the industrial zone in the area of the Sugar Factory, as well as Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. Headquarters units and logistics support are concentrated in the Internat area ( northwestern part of the city ). Units performing the functions of barrier detachments are also based here - the National Guard and groups of foreign mercenaries represented by the Germans. On the right bank, in the forest area in the village of Kovsharovka, artillery was mainly concentrated, while the greenery allows for the secret placement of guns and MLRS installations. The enemy also has a stray M142 HIMARS, as well as one Caesar self-propelled gun.
In the event of our frontal attack from the direction of Sinkovka, there is a chance to run into the enemy’s layered defense in the area of Promka and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces have equipped a chain of fortifications and firing points in multi-story buildings. It has no shortage of 120mm mortars. At the same time, the moral and psychological state of the Ukrainian troops here is at a low level. The majority believes that the right bank will be able to hold out no more than 2 weeks from the beginning of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces. Meanwhile, we still believe that pressing the right bank is reasonable, but an assault on fortified positions occupied by even weakly motivated units will lead to unreasonable losses on our part.
The enemy's communication via Oskol has been disrupted. The crossing is not operational in the area of the TV tower; traffic from the city center to the sugar plant is also limited. The bridge is seriously shabby, they are constantly trying to patch it, but it is only suitable for small-tonnage vehicles. The crossing to Uzlovaya from the Kantsedalovka side ( the so-called Western one ) operates more reliably, but its capacity is not high, and the descent from the mountain leads through open terrain, which makes the transfer risky due to the possibility of fire control on our part.
In the city itself ( as the locals call the left bank part ) no fortification work is observed; the enemy is building the main lines of defense to the west - outside the city. If we discard the assumption that the enemy is deliberately creating the impression of a weak defense of Kupyansk, then it is quite logical to assume that he does not count on our further advance - even if the city is taken.
https://t.me/geromanat/10157
Posted by: Down South | Sep 18 2023 16:01 utc | 10
Re: scepticalSOB @6
I have found it curious that the sanctions the US has levied against Russia and China appear to be exactly what was needed to break certain inertias in their domestic economies. Russia needed more internal reinvestment and China needed to switch from cheaper imported chips to more expensive domestic ones to build needed economies of scale and recenter the chip profits locally so production processes can be improved.
With that said, it isn’t some secret WEF plan to rejuvenate capitalism. The sanctions are just hubris and stupidity. I just find it interesting how completely those sanctions have backfired on the Empire of Delusions.
Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 18 2023 16:10 utc | 11
"Russia’s budget is murky—especially its military one. So our estimate of what Russia is spending on invading Ukraine is imprecise."
I wish I could get paid to write this crap.
Posted by: oracle | Sep 18 2023 16:12 utc | 12
Just a guess, but maybe Budanov wants more free cash from the Americans so he can buy some foreign water front property. Maybe he and Zelinsky are competing to see how rich they can get on a pile of corpses.
So he presses himself to think up bullshit scenarios giving the appearance that victory is just around the corner to keep the money coming.
Objectively it's an imperialist war on Russia, but subjectively it's being carried out by some of the most corrupt Ukie criminals imaginable, with a Nazi attitude to mass death and a desire for wealth that would make most of our billionaires blush.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 18 2023 16:13 utc | 13
b. thanks for this sitrep
Ukrainian infantry has no real connection to the rear that is steady and secure. So, no supplies can be secured. That is why, at the huge cost, they attack, attrite, and get obliterated by RF somewhat later. Offensive action requires a constant flow of ammo, manpower, armour and that is not happening. So, no winning thereof.
I think that Ukrainian DI is helped with The Sun, and other yellow press in dissemination of weird stories and fairytales and that will cost them dearly when the cold shower cools their enthusiasm. NATO should stop aggression on RF and support of Ukraine right now. In a month or two it'll be too late.The time will come when Russian Army will start to question Putin's restraint and that is really not what the West wants to find out how that looks like.
Posted by: whirlX | Sep 18 2023 16:16 utc | 14
"Budanov comes off as a bit of a loudmouth with claims that diverge from reality..."
Requirements for this job. Being slightly insane is also mandatory, or the incessant lying and the great likelihood of coming to a sticky end might obtrude.
Posted by: Tom Welsh | Sep 18 2023 16:19 utc | 15
You miss the point. Budyanov's claims will be repeated verbatim among western politicians and used as an argument that We Must Do More For Ukraine, that Ukraine Has Turned The Tide and that Victory Is Around The Corner. That Russia is reluctant to respond to red line after red line being ignored only bolsters that argument.
The Russian strategy appears to be to hope that the West will come to its senses. This will not happen. Europeans can freeze, Europeans can starve, and the ruling classes will be just fine. Americans can be buggered by inflation, but this bothers the 1% not a whit.
The West will continue to double down.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Sep 18 2023 16:20 utc | 16
"Russia’s budget is murky—especially its military one".
Amazingly primitive and discourteous. Imagine not laying out the fine detail of your military budget for the benefit of your main enemy!
Have those Russians no decency at all?
Posted by: Tom Welsh | Sep 18 2023 16:23 utc | 17
The really stupid thing about the political west is its inability to back away from policies that don't work. The trade sanctions against Russia damage mainly western Europe, and it is a disgrace that Ukraine continues to get its troops killed in mass in this now knowingly unsuccessful offense. By comparison the Russians have made enough mistakes, but they are able to minimized damage and self correct.
Posted by: Jmaas | Sep 18 2023 16:23 utc | 18
That Budanov is a dope is no surprise. Anyone intelligent and capable left Ukraine a generation ago. Only grifters, Nazis, and defectives remain. The grifters and Nazis only need be good enough to get the handout at the US Embassy.
Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 18 2023 16:24 utc | 19
Posted by: Down South | Sep 18 2023 15:55 utc | 7
Wonderful idea by Russia, but it doesn’t help us with the return journey. Those returning Cargo ships may be bringing in diesel, terrorist bombs a la Kerch Bridge attacks and weapons as they did previously. So what will Russia do then ? In the end, it appears Russia will need to neutralise those ships via Electronic warfare means or with extreme prejudice ie take off the crew and sink the ship.
Posted by: Wondrous | Sep 18 2023 16:25 utc | 20
The Russian strategy appears to be to hope that the West will come to its senses. This will not happen. Europeans can freeze, Europeans can starve, and the ruling classes will be just fine. Americans can be buggered by inflation, but this bothers the 1% not a whit.
The West will continue to double down.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Sep 18 2023 16:20 utc | 16
You're completely right.
And the theater of the obscene will continue unabated.
Posted by: jpc | Sep 18 2023 16:27 utc | 21
Posted by: Wondrous | Sep 18 2023 16:25 utc | 20
If there are no ports working that ships have nowhere to go and eventually will be sunk near Crimea or so.
Posted by: Mario | Sep 18 2023 16:31 utc | 22
I may be mistaken, but I do believe Avdiivka was quite heavily fortified as an artillery nest and was the primary location from which Donetsk was being shelled. Also, I haven’t been able to access Telegram for some time, so I can’t recall when Avdiivka was taken. I believe the Russians took it only quite recently, so my guess is that the Ukrainians perceive it as a key strategic point both in terms of defense (for which purposes it must already be quite degraded) and offense, insofar as it allows them to terrorize Donetsk civilians.
Not a very solid rationale, but doubtless the Ukrainian leadership is currently seething in rage at what the Russians have done to them and are madly desperate to hurt the Russians in any way possible. Since Avdiivka was such a convenient place for them to do that, j reckon that’s all we need to understand their desire to retake it.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Sep 18 2023 16:43 utc | 23
‼️🇺🇦 The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dismissed all deputy ministers of defense and the ministry's secretary of statehttps://t.me/Slavyangrad/63611Anna Malyar, Vitaly Deinega, Denis Sharapov, Vladimir Gavrilov, Rostislav Zamlinsky, Andrey Shevchenko, and Konstantin Vashchenko (Secretary of State) resigned.
Who will now delight the public with their fakes instead of the notorious propagandist Anna Malyar?
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 18 2023 16:45 utc | 24
War until the last Ukrainian
https://rutube.ru/video/e41f3b9ba7afa39a69bc2629115018ff/
Posted by: Crazy idiot | Sep 18 2023 16:55 utc | 25
After confirming my memory was correct by checking out a Southfront map, I am now pretty sure that Russia has never taken Avdiivka and that the Ukrainians have held their fortifications continuously up to now.
So the assertion that Ukraine “retook” the place seems like yet another lie by Ukraine’s high command.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Sep 18 2023 16:56 utc | 26
Before commenting on the discussion about Russia's budget for 2024 and the planning for the two years beyond, here's Lavrov's answer to a question from yesterday's Moscow.Kremlin.Putin programme:
Question: Has the United States again stated that it is ready to supply Ukraine with long-range depleted uranium shells? What's next?Sergey Lavrov: I am not in a position to comment on their statements. They have seven Fridays in a week. Maybe the public is preparing. But the fact that this will not change the essence of what is happening is a fact. And what is happening is that Ukraine has been prepared, and has been prepared for many years, in order to fight with its hands and bodies to inflict a "strategic defeat" on Russia. No matter what they say, they are running this war, supplying weapons, ammunition, intelligence and satellite data. They are waging war against us. [My Emphasis]
I don't think it can be made any clearer than that, and that affects any possibilities of negotiations as Ukraine is no more than a cattle prod being used by the rancher.
Today, Lavrov and team opened talks with Wang Yi and team in Moscow, where Lavrov made the following opening remarks:
I would like to note the importance of Russian-Chinese cooperation in ensuring justice in world affairs and balancing interests in processes developing in various areas.Recently, we have been very successful in coordinating with other countries in the Global South. We achieved positive results at the East Asia Summit in Jakarta, at the G20 Summit in New Delhi and within the framework of the SCO.
New multilateral forums lie ahead. First of all, the UN General Assembly, which has already opened its work. Then there will be the APEC summit and many other meetings at the highest and high levels.
I am confident that our coordinated work will continue during these forums and will ensure their result that meets the aspirations of all members of the world community.
Yes, Russia and its Global South team are on a roll. How the next several forums proceed will be quite interesting.
NATO sleeper cells activate (affiliated with fourthreich) when American population resists.
Posted by: Eleven bravo | Sep 18 2023 17:06 utc | 28
The West will continue to double down.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Sep 18 2023 16:20 utc | 16
This is my conviction too. Some time after Putin had stated three years ago "they didn't listen to us before, they will listen to us now" on the occasion of presenting new types of missiles in Russia's arsenal, the arch-neocon ideologue and husband to Nuland Robert Kagan asserted in an article in The Atlantic that the US could invrease the pressure against adversarial countries, i.e. Russia, China and Iran. He openly stated that the naysayers, including Obama an Trump, were proven wrong and that US adventurism was not fraught with the dangers they were afraid of.
The problem isn't the tempo of Russian operations per se. It may very well be that the Russian authorities have balanced the needs of the country and the military threats and use the appropriate force (although it was clearly wrong in the early phase). It is rather that the countries that support the fascist Maidanist regime suffer no real consequences. The threat towards Rzeszow or another base, the destruction of the Norwegian pipeline, threat to immediately hammer installations hosting particularly dangerous armaments in Finland etc. should have been on the table, no bluffing in it.
That will be seen if NATO escalates with, say, very serious build up in Finland. Such a development would expose the casual attitude of the Russian authorities towards NATO expansion outside Ukraine. And it is obvious by now that the imperialist scum have no compunction whatsoever to escalate as they appear convinced that their salami tactics would weaken Russia severely.
Posted by: Constantine | Sep 18 2023 17:06 utc | 29
The Russian strategy appears to be to hope that the West will come to its senses. This will not happen. Europeans can freeze, Europeans can starve, and the ruling classes will be just fine. Americans can be buggered by inflation, but this bothers the 1% not a whit.
The West will continue to double down.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Sep 18 2023 16:
NATO will have to change because the Ukrainian military is collapsing and is being broken and turned into a force which cannot defend territory. No matter what the West does it cannot stop the attrition and degradation of the Ukrainian military.
It is Western LEADERS who want this forever war but those leaders are being turned from power in the West because of the terrible economic effects of the war on the West itself. The most ardent Western leaders for war have lost elections, Biden won't even run for re-election. No collapse of the Russian economy, no regime change, no ability to easily coerce Russia- the war aims have been lost.
No, Western leaders will not " come to their senses" but the West's plan has simply failed and it will be forced by that circumstance to change course and ultimately negotiate with Russia directly or indirectly because Russia is now in a better position, it has now the ability to negotiate from strength.
Posted by: Bakunin17 | Sep 18 2023 17:18 utc | 30
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 18 2023 16:45 utc | 24
The human detritus that has been used to staff the Maidanist regime is a marvel to behold. No other puppet regime of the empire has been so "successful" in leading the people it oppresses into national suicide (and there has been plenty of competition on that field). The level of degeneracy permeating the Ukrainian political and financial elites surpasses by far the most decrepit vassals of the Anglo-American regime.
It should further be emphasized that it is wrong to treat this wretched lot as the proper and true representatives of the Ukrainians. This constitutes a political and propagandistic victory for the western powers and it must be reversed.
Posted by: Constantine | Sep 18 2023 17:19 utc | 31
The spokespeople have Kiev have learned well at the knee of their masters. They speak in projections. In some respects this is a relatively good strategy for lying because it allows the speaker to base their statements on a kernel of truth at the base of the bigger lie. But at a certain point it becomes comically bad. Good examples of this are not just Kiev these days but anything said from Foggy Bottom or its minions.
If you read the Budanov interview and replace “Russia” with “Ukraine” you end up with a fairly accurate picture of the situation.
Posted by: Lex | Sep 18 2023 17:19 utc | 32
The Economist itself is a mouthpiece of the Anglosphere and not particularly concerned with the truth. Their change of tone suggests the uncertainty of what Empire should do next.
Posted by: Moses22 | Sep 18 2023 17:25 utc | 33
Posted by: Bakunin17 | Sep 18 2023 17:18 utc | 30
Kiev regime has just sued Poland, Czech and Hungary for banning import of Ukrainian grain, or setting some rather hefty quotas. In response Poland announced to block Kiev's EU membership application.
While all this may not be very important, it does suck export revenues of Kiev, makes external funding much harder in the backdrop of dwindling EU support and makes Kiev more reliant on simple humanitarian aid. UN announced that Ukraine has already "sucked all the oxygen from the room" meaning they have little less aid to offer.
Also, the mobilization is already full scale ongoing in Lwow, which is the last place in Ukraine that would get mobilized. They might be able to scrape together another 200k people, but the professional level of the army doesn't exist anymore and will never come back. I mean, look at their attacks, it's mostly infantry without any sort of fire support in most places. Once Russia is finished with Ukraine's long range artillery it will get even worse.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 18 2023 17:29 utc | 35
As mentioned by Pacifica Advocate, Avdiivka is the location from which the city of Donetsk was being shelled and has long been a target for RF forces. Whatever state and whoever’s hands it currently rests, it is probably not an artillery nest any more.
As far all all the false claims and noise: metal talks and bullshit walks. The NATO handlers simply cannot and will not back down. They are stuck to failed policies and will have to hit the proverbial rock bottom before they change course. So be it. It’s not as though Russia has not prepared for the long haul, so let’s see who lasts the longest I guess…. I’m betting that this coming winter will be worse than the last for the EU and even worse for the Ukraine. Add to that the dozen other things coming to a head and welcome to “interesting times”…
Posted by: Chevrus | Sep 18 2023 17:29 utc | 36
Right now on a major German TV news show:
A Ukrainian tanker, standing in front of a Leo2 is being interviewed: “look, this is the great Leopard, one of the best tanks in the world, we now need 500 of them and then we will win… oh, and this is the crap Russia is fighting with” – an old and tiny Soviet APC is shown…
LOL… it will never be enough…
Posted by: Zet | Sep 18 2023 17:31 utc | 37
Just a thought- with Russia more fully backing the DPRK as the war in Ukraine continues, this puts the only other state-of-the-art chip factories in the world outside Taiwan (those run by Samsung in South Korea) in more potential peril than they have been for years. A very interesting chess move by Russia with more long-term implications than are initially apparent. It may explain the apoplectic reaction when it's just a deal with a smallish and impoverished Asian nation.
South Korean (as well as Japanese) manufacturing, commercial shipping, and aviation would be vulnerable to stand-off weapons even without an invasion by the DPRK (assuming they had some help from their friends with ISR). South Korea, like Taiwan, has no land corridors anywhere.
A cynic might think that a good plan would be to provoke wars that damage or destroy both production centers after alternate production centers are established, but that would be as Machiavellian as interfering with an ally's energy supply.
Posted by: BillB | Sep 18 2023 17:31 utc | 38
Of course they will lie. There are virtually no consequences for lying in the function of propaganda as the same propaganda narrative engineers provide cover for the lies if they are found out. New lies to cover old ones.
This SBU guy is of course in the epicenter of narrative engineering. Its literally his job.
Reality and truth are difficult to live by. Narrative engineers use that to construct messages that appear to lighten the burden of living with reality, enabling comfort, and thus create addictive relationship with the messagees. Yore hooked on good news from the front!
Posted by: alek_a | Sep 18 2023 17:32 utc | 39
Has anyone here seen our Missing F35? Last seen over South Carolina USA heading on auto piolet off into the wild blue yonder. If found please contact the Berau of Missing Planes USAF
Thank you.
Posted by: Golddigger | Sep 18 2023 17:35 utc | 40
A cynic might think that a good plan would be to provoke wars that damage or destroy both production centers after alternate production centers are established, but that would be as Machiavellian as interfering with an ally's energy supply.
Posted by: BillB | Sep 18 2023 17:31 utc | 38
Agree, it is a great move, opens many options, a counter-foil to the West's Ukraine provocation. The NoKos should not be underestimated either.
Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 18 2023 17:37 utc | 41
Ah the old F-35 Flying Turkey! I gather that it went rogue, and then threatened the pilot who being of sound mind pulled the ripchord and escaped! The plane then “overachieved” in its stealthiness and promptly hid by burying itself in a South Carolina swamp. It will remain there in hiding, detectable at close range only by the intolerable amount of smugness it generates….
Stay tuned!
Posted by: Chevrus | Sep 18 2023 17:40 utc | 42
Posted by b on September 18, 2023 at 15:15 UTC | PermalinkI assume you're speaking from a military point of view, and I think you are right there. But I believe that most actions (especially in the politicial/military/economic domains) have *some* rationale and it's often worth trying to find it.Why Ukraine insist on attacking Russian forces instead of taking a defensive posture at some geographically protected line is impossible to understand. It is not rational.
In this particular case, it's pretty easy and probably not controversial: the Ukrainian command is pursuing this particular "strategy" for political purposes (rather than military ones). I think they reckon the situation is fluid enough that a local "victory" can be achieved. This is even easier because the Russian forces are (rightly so, IMO) very risk-averse. These military achievements are required to keep the support (money, weapons) flowing.
It's a losing proposition and horrible from a human point of view. But it makes a lot of sense. The current state of war is a racket for *many* in the US and Ukraine. Loss of lives has never been a reason to stop that.
Wie immer: vielen Dank für die exzellenten Beiträge und die digitale Infrastruktur.
Posted by: Konami | Sep 18 2023 17:43 utc | 44
Good one here on a couple of cia captured slavs trying to sell the war on Russia as a left revolutionary struggle with "Russian Imperialism" at Berkeley this weekend.
Just look at these dead eyed tools!
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/09/18/lzkw-s18.html
Caveat: this websites line on the war against Russia is a mess, as you can see in some bits of the article. Notably, the assertion that the leadership of Ukraine and Russia are mirror images is particularly false and offensive.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 18 2023 17:48 utc | 45
It should be noted that because Russia has a relatively stable population, it doesn't need any economic growth to maintain the status quo, and even 2-3% annual growth is substantial in real terms. On the other hand, countries with rapidly increasing populations need massive investments in developing new resources and building new infrastructure and new technologies just to stay even.
"More hands and brains equals more production" is rot. Without tools and developed resources, more people add nothing. More people only add to production after they have been supplied with tools and resources, these can only be developed using existing tools and resources. It's very easy for rapid population growth to end up sucking everything into trying desperately to maintain the status quo, with little to nothing left over for investment in new enterprises. Why do you think, after all these decades, the 'developing' world is still 'developing' and capital starved?
With the United States now opening its border to foreign invasion, it would probably need 5-6% annual increase in GDP just to stay even (yes even more than the actual percent increase in population, because of all the up-front investments needed). That's not going to happen. Bottom line: 2-3 percent GDP increase per year is great for Russia, and a disaster for the United States. You can't just compare raw GDP numbers.
Posted by: TG | Sep 18 2023 17:49 utc | 46
The Russian strategy appears to be to hope that the West will come to its senses. This will not happen. Europeans can freeze, Europeans can starve, and the ruling classes will be just fine. Americans can be buggered by inflation, but this bothers the 1% not a whit.
The West will continue to double down.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Sep 18 2023 16:20 utc | 16
I don't think that's the case at all. I don't think the Russians give a shit what the west does ... they're fighting a war. The Russians aren't waiting for anything ... they are slowly taking apart what's probably the most fortified real estate on the planet.
Ukraine was heavily fortified by the Soviets after WW2 ... all these mines and factories have massive underground shelters and armouries. The Donbas is urbanized and industrialized that even the Wehrmacht wouldn't run tanks through it in 1941. Then the Ukrainians spent the 8 years prior to the invasion digging trenches and pouring even more concrete.
On top of that warfare has changes ... 80 years after WW2 we've come to the point where those blitzkrieg tactics won't work against modern weapons ... at least not until the enemy is sufficiently attrited which is the phase we are in right now.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Sep 18 2023 17:55 utc | 47
Posted by: Konami | Sep 18 2023 17:43 utc | 44
Another reason AFU is pursuing offensive despite it being increasingly a losing proposition is that Biden/US can't afford to stop the offensive. The offensive will continue until rain and mud, because then they have a decent excuse to call it off. The Russian risk or casualty aversity is also another reason.
Also, Zaluzhny or someone from their command said earlier that the actual purpose of attack is to prevent Russian army from attacking. Obviously, this is a cover reason for the west's political and perception reasons for attacking.
So far, according to reports the AFU force in Verbove-Rabotyne salient has not been attacking. RU army even launched their own probing attacks on the AFU forces in the salient and squeezed some positions on their flank. This is probably testing whether AFU force in the salient is still capable of counter-attacking, if not, we can expect increasing attacks from Russian side.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 18 2023 17:57 utc | 48
I suspect that the ultra-nationalists that appear to have hijacked Ukraine do not care about losses in their quest for their version of Ukrainian statehood. Their history has been one of killing countrymen who did not share their utopian and dystopian vision.
Posted by: Mike Price | Sep 18 2023 18:09 utc | 49
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 18 2023 17:57 utc | 48Yes, that is true. However, there are factions in the (US, others don't matter) establishment that want to at least park the war -- this is the anti-China faction and presumably philantrophes who get less money out of Ukraine than the anti-Russia faction.Another reason AFU is pursuing offensive despite it being increasingly a losing proposition is that Biden/US can't afford to stop the offensive. The offensive will continue until rain and mud, because then they have a decent excuse to call it off.
It seems as if AUF on tight defence (what Russia is doing right now) was never an option for their handlers: I am sure that the Ukrainian command is not stupid, and they know from the start that the "counteroffensive" will fail. So someone in Washington decided that the stories/pictures around offensive action are more valuable than a Ukrainian army that can last longer. I believe we will see the switch to defensive stance soon, out of necessity. There are also some noises in this direction.
Posted by: Konami | Sep 18 2023 18:28 utc | 50
Madness-as-the-norm again here with their claims that Ukraine will be fighting this war in 2026. There are so many curveballs the west can throw at Putin only for Russia to Judoku them back for the advantage.
I know there is a possibility for this as Russia is in no hurry, though this makes me think of the Neo-Khazarian hypthesis that this war is merely to eradicate the native Slavs in the area...with the secondary tragic effects of widespread trafficking involving all those Ukrainian widows and daughters.
Another thing: the amount of mines being placed will no doubt necessitate massive amounts of bulldozing and leveling when this war is over and rebuilding can begin. Who again has the advantage here? Certainly not Blackrock or Poland or the EU.
Russia has the advantage all the way.
Those poor, deluded Ukrainians. Truly they are being led down the garden path.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Sep 18 2023 18:30 utc | 51
Wooohooo!
Zelensky, in an interview on 60 Minutes USA accused the Russian people of "electing Putin, time after time".
Well, well. So Russia is NOT a dictatorship. Their stories always unravel in the end don't they. LOL.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 18 2023 18:38 utc | 52
@ Pacifica Advocate | Sep 18 2023 16:43 utc | 23
you seem to mix up Avdiivka [Avde-yevka in RU, a city of 20k near Donetsk, named after Obadiah] with Andriivka [Andre-yevka, a village of ~50 near Bakhmut, named after Andrew]
Posted by: BG13 | Sep 18 2023 18:38 utc | 53
Pacifica Advocate | Sep 18 2023 16:43 utc | 23
You're confusing Andriivka with Avdiivka.
Posted by: Rama404 | Sep 18 2023 18:42 utc | 54
The situation at the front on September 18.Flanks of Artyomovsk:
Andreevka - Kleshcheevka are in the gray zone. Statements about the complete control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces over Kleshcheevka are still untrue. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have too few forces to control and hold the village. Russian artillery has been actively attacking units of the Ukrainian troops for the second day: the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to accumulate troops in the south and closer to the center of Kleshcheevka, but retreated under artillery fire from the Russian Armed Forces and aviation. Equipment is not used in large quantities, the Ukrainian infantry travels most of the way on foot, the losses are heavy, there was no talk of full control of the village initially, now the situation is gradually starting to worsen: the low-lying village is in ruins, it is difficult to gain a foothold in this area. In the Andreevka area, the situation is similar to Kleshcheevka: most of the village is in the gray zone, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to accumulate in nearby plantings, Russian artillery is actively working. In the northern direction, no active attacks have been recorded in the last 24 hours.
Zaporozhye:
A difficult situation for the units of the 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade and the 47th "Magura" Mechanized Infantry Brigade in the plantings in the Rabotino - Verbovoe - Novoprokopovka section. There was an attempt to move forward, but the minefields were activated. The equipment was lost, the infantry was scattered throughout the plantings. After several days of continuous grinding of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ manpower in the area of the village of Rabotino, several counterattacks followed, as a result of which the bottleneck of the fire bag into which the Ukrainian Armed Forces fell began to gradually shrink, which complicates the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area. In the Pyatikhatki area the situation has not changed: the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffer losses and retreat, regroup and suffer losses again.
South Donetsk direction:
The situation is tense but stable. The 36th Marine Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to occupy several forest belts and carried out at least four serious assaults, three of which the infantry carried out without equipment cover, and during the fourth they lost two Finnish armored personnel carriers and a T-80 tank.
Priyutnoye, Novodonetskoye, Novomayorskoye - the situation is unchanged.
MILITARY CHRONICLE
The situation seems to be deteriorating for Verbove-Rabotyne salient for AFU with tighter supply route, and Kleschevka could be the high water mark in the south of Artemovsk direction.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 18 2023 18:45 utc | 55
After confirming my memory was correct by checking out a Southfront map, I am now pretty sure that Russia has never taken Avdiivka and that the Ukrainians have held their fortifications continuously up to now.
So the assertion that Ukraine “retook” the place seems like yet another lie by Ukraine’s high command.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Sep 18 2023 16:56 utc | 26 Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Sep 18 2023 16:43 utc | 23
Posted by: Chevrus | Sep 18 2023 17:29 utc | 36
The problem is that there seem to be over 10 Avdiivka/Avdeevka scattered around Ukraine varying in size from a few houses to a decent sized town.
The two discussed in this thread are different places and in this case the Ukrainians are not lying re the hamlet they seem to have just taken. Whilst the other large town is still an artillery base from which they shell Donetsk.
Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 18 2023 18:46 utc | 56
@Konami: Sure I suppose at some point the AFU can go on the defensive but I think the lines they built for the last 9 years wont hold, and some are not even at the front anymore. Plus there is that unpleasant issue of what happens when large amounts of troops and materiel “stay put”. Once the FAB 1500’s get their wings, which should be any time now defensive lines will become tombs rather quickly.
Then there is the whole ‘freeze the conflict’ nonsense that the western MSM trots out every so often…Really?! It may have escaped them that in order for such a thing to happen, the OTHER SIDE must either freeze as well, or be force to do so. Something tells me the only freezing going on will be the soil of the battle grounds and the cold water flats in the EU.
Posted by: Chevrus | Sep 18 2023 18:46 utc | 57
Chevrus: you're not wrong but you'll agree that it makes more military sense to defend if you have fewer men and less materiel. Better than blowing it in pointless attacks -- this is where b's comment about the irrational AUF strategy originates.
So we have to acknowledge that someone found it more relevant (=profitable) to expend Ukrainian manpower in pointless attacks rather than in stubborn resistance. We've been through some reasons for this.
I agree that the "freeze" (whether Israel or Korea styled) is wishful thinking. But we also know from the March RAND paper that someone (presumably someone else) is willing to give actual stuff to the Russians in this case: testable actions like lifted sanctions. The Biden team seems to go for more war, though. Will be interesting to see how this inner-US conflict plays out.
Posted by: Konami | Sep 18 2023 19:06 utc | 58
Ukraine's military intelligence in Budanov has also advanced from nervous breakdown to psychotic break with reality. It will be quite the challenge for Russia to push back Budanov and the rest of Ukrainian military intelligence into sanity once again. If this persists who knows how far ahead this disassociation battlefront will conquer territory into flights of fancy. Truly breathtaking success!
Posted by: titmouse | Sep 18 2023 19:10 utc | 59
Half a million men killed, wounded, disabled, an entire generation psychologically damaged—and for what? At what point do the poor, the workers, the mass, the widows and orphans, the young, say 'enough'? How is it possible that they just keep accepting the legitimacy of those who push them into such extraordinary levels of bullshit? One might say "'twere ever so". The iron applicability of the ideological and social hegemony of the ruling class is about the only thing resembling a historical law I can imagine. The number of human lives sacrificed to maintain it must account for somewhere between 15-20% of all humans who've lived from about 5000yrs BP. If we add the suffering inflicted on animals, its savagery against the environment and its utter contempt for the world then there really is no hell just enough to balance the immensity of the psychic trauma. Even God must tremble before such horror. Time to read Heart of Darkness for the 18th time. It's the only text that gets it. All so fucking depressing.
Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 18 2023 19:14 utc | 60
People in the West who support this should be sued for the unnecessary losses that position is causing.
Heh, no. They should be dropped off at the line of contact.
Posted by: Fred777 | Sep 18 2023 19:22 utc | 61
If Russia was really stripping troops from different areas of the front then we should see a collapse somewhere. Instead, we see that the area around Robotyne hasn't budged in well over a week and Ukraine has only captured a tiny sliver of land near Bakhmut. If the Ukrainian counter-offensive was healthy they would focus on Robotyne as that could eventually threaten Russia's land bridge to Crimea.
Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Sep 18 2023 19:23 utc | 62
NATO will have to change because the Ukrainian military is collapsing and is being broken and turned into a force which cannot defend territory. No matter what the West does it cannot stop the attrition and degradation of the Ukrainian military.
It is Western LEADERS who want this forever war but those leaders are being turned from power in the West because of the terrible economic effects of the war on the West itself. The most ardent Western leaders for war have lost elections, Biden won't even run for re-election. No collapse of the Russian economy, no regime change, no ability to easily coerce Russia- the war aims have been lost.
Posted by: Bakunin17 | Sep 18 2023 17:18 utc | 30
There is no sign that the ukrainian military is collapsing, it is still putting pressure on the russian lines in multiple places and defending obstinately where it has to, no mass surrendering, mutinies, widespread fragging of officers or similar from what I can glean in russian sources.
Morale is hard to assess in such conditions but I get the whiff they have truly bought into the "Great ukrainian nation, bastion of the west, will fight against the orcish hordes until they are annihilated and it will be finally allowed into the garden of the EU" narrative or variations thereof; unless the US decides to drop them next year to focus on China they may well keep fighting until they are down to handing RPGs to children among the ruins of Kiev. In principle they can send every factory worker, farmer etc. to the front as the EU can supply them with all the goods and food if that is the will of the western leadership (in practice there may be a number of practical issues but you get the idea).
Speaking of which last time I checked we do not have direct democracy so as long as the élite is willing to close ranks you can vote and protest until you get blue in the face, they can just switch the spokeperson for the same policy. It would take a massive popular mobilization to force their hands with workers strikes, mass disobedience etc which obviously is not going to happen; even then they would still have options.
Posted by: Satepestage | Sep 18 2023 19:29 utc | 63
"While all this may not be very important"
It is important Unimperator because it's those details which tell the small true real story instead of the big official lies. No truth about the real state of the Ukrainian economy has been told since the war began by NATO or Ukraine and like the true number of Ukrainian casualties, won't until well after the war.
Hearing from Ukrainian combat soldiers and POW's the same thing over and over: No water, no food, little ammunition, suicide missions, disappearing commanders. Tells me more than offcial American and Ukrainian announcements.
Posted by: Bakunin17 | Sep 18 2023 19:42 utc | 64
@Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Sep 18 2023 16:56 utc | 26
After confirming my memory was correct by checking out a Southfront map, I am now pretty sure that Russia has never taken Avdiivka and that the Ukrainians have held their fortifications continuously up to now. So the assertion that Ukraine “retook” the place seems like yet another lie by Ukraine’s high command.
There are multiple towns and villages with the same name in Ukraine, or names that are very close (especially for non-Ukraine natives). Avdiivka is north west of Donestsk and is the massively fortified base from which the Ukrainians have been shelling Donetsk since the start of the SMO. Andriivka is a small village that is south of Artymovsk (previously Bakhmut) and close to Klishchiivka, which has changed hands more than once - and the one being referenced.
Zero Hedge headline: "How Do You Lose An F-35?": US Military Can't Find Stealth Jet After "Mishap"
See, that proves how stealthy the F-35 is! Even the US Air Force can't find it!!
The Russkis are DOOMED!!!
Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 18 2023 19:43 utc | 66
Another thing: the amount of mines being placed will no doubt necessitate massive amounts of bulldozing and leveling when this war is over and rebuilding can begin. Who again has the advantage here? Certainly not Blackrock or Poland or the EU.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Sep 18 2023 18:30 utc | 51
Blackrock and Poland must love the smo. That future nato part of former Ukr is clean, as good as new. The 3 transformers hit last year by Surovikin are easy to replace or not even needed anymore, the population is much less and industry is mostly gone. The only mines in Ukr were placed by Ukr itself, for example in the Black Sea and no one will clean those. In the new regions of Russia it'll take 10-15 years, who knows. The "benefits" of a little retreating smo
Posted by: rk | Sep 18 2023 19:47 utc | 67
Europeans can freeze, Europeans can starve, and the ruling classes will be just fine. Americans can be buggered by inflation, but this bothers the 1% not a whit.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Sep 18 2023 16:20 utc | 16
I think it unlikely that there will be direct war between NATO and Russia. If there is, it will be the result of a miscalculation.
Sanctioning Russia and China is a double-edged sword.
Imagine there is a war between NATO and Russia. The most cost effective way for Russia is taking out those institutions and companies that sanction Russia.
The SWIFT interbank network has banned Russian banks. This means Russia can take out the data centres of the SWIFT network without any harm to the Russian economy.
A Dutch company no longer sells chip manufacturing equipment to Russia. This means Russia can take out this company's factory, no problem.
The Council of Europe has banned Russia. This means that if that institution is wiped out, no Russian is harmed.
These acts would be the Russian equivalent of the US blowing up someone else's gas pipeline.
So I think a direct war between NATO and Russia unlikely. We can't afford it. If there is such a war, it will be the result of a miscalculation.
Posted by: Passerby | Sep 18 2023 19:51 utc | 69
Posted by: HB_Norica | Sep 18 2023 17:55 utc | 47
################
Great post.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 18 2023 19:55 utc | 70
So I think a direct war between NATO and Russia unlikely. We can't afford it. If there is such a war, it will be the result of a miscalculation.
Posted by: Passerby | Sep 18 2023 19:51 utc | 69
##################
Never underestimate the danger of greed combined with childhood trauma.
There is nothing some of these people won't do. Just because most of us have boundaries and moral limits, doesn't mean that they do. They are less like us than we want to believe.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 18 2023 20:03 utc | 71
The Russian strategy appears to be to hope that the West will come to its senses. This will not happen. Europeans can freeze, Europeans can starve, and the ruling classes will be just fine. Americans can be buggered by inflation, but this bothers the 1% not a whit.
The West will continue to double down.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Sep 18 2023 16:20 utc | 16
You are completely right.
The Russian leadership does not understand The Western mind.
Posted by: simplex | Sep 18 2023 20:05 utc | 72
@ Pacifica Advocate | Sep 18 2023 16:43 utc | 23you seem to mix up Avdiivka [Avde-yevka in RU, a city of 20k near Donetsk, named after Obadiah] with Andriivka [Andre-yevka, a village of ~50 near Bakhmut, named after Andrew]
Posted by: BG13 | Sep 18 2023 18:38 utc | 53
Pacifica Advocate | Sep 18 2023 16:43 utc | 23
You're confusing Andriivka with Avdiivka.
Posted by: Rama404 | Sep 18 2023 18:42 utc | 54<
No I’m not.
https://i1.wp.com/euromaidanpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/avdiyivka4.jpg?fit=1134%2C743
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Sep 18 2023 20:13 utc | 73
Ok. Yes, I have confused the two names. I misread b’s original post because I’m not in the least familiar with Slavic languages.
So I agree completely with b: it doesn’t make any sense for Russia to put up such a fight over such inconsequential territory.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Sep 18 2023 20:17 utc | 74
@ Roger | Sep 18 2023 19:42 utc | 65
Thank you for the lesson. Much obliged, sincerely.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Sep 18 2023 20:22 utc | 76
I think the action moving to the Black Sea is intentional. The Ukies have had more success there and Turkey is one of the smugglers and is allowing military ships into the Black Sea. Legends:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXJHiSKzZFs
Posted by: JimG | Sep 18 2023 20:29 utc | 77
> Budanov comes off as a bit of a loudmouth with claims that diverge from reality:
Speaking of Kiev officials, do you have any idea how little that narrows it down?
Posted by: Arnaud Amalric | Sep 18 2023 20:30 utc | 78
From Slavyangrad
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/63687
Why not carpet bomb factories?Andrey Klintsevich, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts:
Factories in Ukraine were built during Soviet times, they are really huge. These are dozens of different workshops, half of which are empty. And to completely destroy a plant like the one in Kharkov, you need to carpet bomb with thousands of tons of bombs. This is physically impossible.
For comparison: one sortie - about a hundred aircraft - of British aviation against Germany was more in tonnage than the number of missiles we sent to Ukraine over the entire period. Modern war is still targeted strikes.
What prevents us from making a carpet bombing?
The answer is simple: half of the expensive planes will not come back. Modern air defense systems will simply shoot down our strategic bombers that enter this air defense zone.
Therefore, the glide bombs that we are now making are a possibility of striking before aircraft enter the air defense zone. And modern so-called one-and-a-half-ton bombs with huge planning and correction modules that fly up to 100 kilometers are our ability to overcome those air defense systems.
But they ask the question: “Why didn’t they do it earlier?” The territory of Ukraine is huge, there are hundreds of objects, and we do not have an unlimited number of missiles, so there is a certain priority of targets. We try to strike in a targeted manner to create the maximum effect: somewhere in a workshop, somewhere in an energy center, and so on. And we understand that the enemy is reconstructing, camouflaging, and creating false targets.
And this requires additional exploration. As for the Kharkov plant, there were two raids: the first time there was a strike, then further clarification - and again. It's very effective.
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Sep 18 2023 20:34 utc | 79
American Nazi War crimes party 2024:
Romney/Halley
Harris/Clinton
Newsome/Obama
Anything else is limited-protest
Posted by: Fantasma | Sep 18 2023 20:37 utc | 80
Passerby @ 69
So I think a direct war between NATO and Russia unlikely. We can't afford it.
War isn't pay as you go (what is?) nor a money sink, it's an economic stimulus, a perverted one, but it generates work for the proles and money for the owners. Debt isn't a hole to nowhere it's the other side of an asset. Must the bill come due? Beats me, USA has been a Ponzi scheme since at least the end of Bretton Woods, this crap can go on for decades more I'm sure, even the suckers in a Ponzi once the catch on understand it's best to not point it out. But sure, maybe the financial insiders finally got the bill in the mailbox, in which case you can be certain it'll be war.
People in the west are sacking supermarkets for shit food and shit chain stores for shit clothing that businesses are shutting stores all over poor America, which is a whole lot of America. Maybe that, in all its mundanity, is the bill coming due. War - the more you can't afford it the more you need it.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 18 2023 20:39 utc | 81
Zero Hedge headline: "How Do You Lose An F-35?": US Military Can't Find Stealth Jet After "Mishap"
See, that proves how stealthy the F-35 is! Even the US Air Force can't find it!!
The Russkis are DOOMED!!!
Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 18 2023 19:43 utc | 66
---
Lockheed could offer F35 key finders in the future. Optionally in stealth design. The only disadvantage would be that the F35 rattles a little louder than usual.
Posted by: Nobody | Sep 18 2023 20:44 utc | 82
Some says that Budanov survived a missile strike and suffer consequences... come on : that kind of guys didn't need it to be like that. Also he took a lot a fat since that unlucky event :)
Posted by: Hiro Masamune | Sep 18 2023 20:49 utc | 83
I shall not believe a word I see here at Moon of Alabama unless Inkan1969 has weighed in. /s
Where has it been, lately?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Sep 18 2023 20:50 utc | 84
Forecast
Short, dry, warm winter
-mountain peaks, already month behind, no snow yet
Posted by: Fantasma | Sep 18 2023 20:51 utc | 85
Saw on TG somewhere that the F35 is in Cuba. I'm sure it's silly nonsense but it would be funny. Used to be the Soviets would flee to the west now it's the other way around. Some USA soldier recently defected to the DPRK.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defection_of_Viktor_Belenko
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 18 2023 20:53 utc | 86
I think some posters, and most of the MSM commentators, conflate Ukraine’s ability to mobilise personnel with training them. The cold reality is that the Ukrainian troops who were involved in the ‘23 offensive should have started their basic training at the time the ‘22 offensives was winding down. These troops should have had four months basic training, whilst the units who’d trained in ‘21/early ‘22 were filling the lines. In extremis the training could have been cut down from a year to 8 months, but there should have been a constant stream of recruits filling the vacancies caused by casualties. Ukraine though is unable to come close to this because of a number of linked factors that Russia has ruthlessly exploited, using its fire superiority.
1. Western support is dependent on Ukraine being able to maintain two illusions that can be sold to the public by the MSM
a) The lack of progress made by the Russians, due to a list of deficiencies with a pedigree stretching back to WW2
b) The ability to militarily reverse any territorial losses
2. Ukraine must therefore maintain a 2000km contact line, to satisfy the requirements of 1a whilst attacking to satisfy 1b. Both are massive drains on manpower, forcing recruits to be rushed to the front with barely any training.
3. Casualties, amongst the best trained units, in the first year of the conflict were catastrophic, causing a void that was impossible to fill. In one, well trained, company the Ukrainians might have lost from anywhere between 30-70 years of combined leadership experience (14x3-8) x .8 and this does not include any junior fire-team leaders. A battalion would have lost a staggering 90-210 years of combined experience, and a brigade nearly half a centuries worth.
4. The reliance on NATO trainers for 8 years, without building up their own capabilities to create organic training battalions that could constantly cycle mobilised personnel to the front. When the SMO was unchecked by sanctions, this reliance caused the whole system to be put under intolerable stresses and strains. Western sheep-dips had to rapidly train recruits on the Western equipment, as the previous operators were killed, or the territorial units expanded to fill the gaps. Western overseas training was totally insufficient, due to pressures fulfilling their own training requirements, and the need to rapidly replace casualties or prepare for the offensives.
Posters who regularly belittle Col MacGregor, and other similarly informed posters, when they say the end is inevitable and the speed of Ukraine’s nemeses is rapidly accelerating, really need to spend less time Dima’ing and more time researching the organic nature of a military structure. Without a constant supply of trained personnel, an Army withers as surely as a plant does when denied vital nutrients for growth.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 18 2023 20:55 utc | 87
Posted by: Milites | Sep 18 2023 20:55 utc | 87
Ukraine has extensive training grounds in the western part of the country that have been used to train Ukrainian soldiers by Ukrainians for the last decade. There are a fair amount of Twitter videos of operations there.
This is seperate from the training the West did very close to the Western border of Ukraine with Poland.
You can check this by the looking at the number of soldiers whom the West claimed to train and comparing them to the number of draftees Ukraine cycled though their army between 2015 and 2022 each year.
There is some level of on the job training as it is possible to track the progress of some units from those western training grounds, battalion by battalion for some of the brigades into quieter parts of the front. When the Russians moved out of Kherson, I noticed a number of units moved to Kherson, where there was a river to protect them. They also moved some to the border of Belarus and quieter part of the border with Russia.
None of this says how good the training was, but it wasn't all by the West. But it does address your point #4.
Posted by: ed5 | Sep 18 2023 21:14 utc | 88
So, this F35 thing is either hilarious or very worrisome. Maybe both.
Of course, some will say "China did it" without even knowing what happened.
Most probably they lost their bird in an embarrassing accident, now trying to cover it up.
But what if not...?
@ LightYearsFromHome | Sep 18 2023 20:39 utc | 81
USD financial system constantly needs (outside) creditors bc of current account deficit. So yeah, in effect a ponzi. If no further creditors are found (China & other countries are increasingly unwilling), there's three options: a. reform the system (tax the rich), b. collapse, c. destroy competitors.
Posted by: smuks | Sep 18 2023 21:21 utc | 89
Ah the old F-35 Flying Turkey! I gather that it went rogue, and then threatened the pilot who being of sound mind pulled the ripchord and escaped! The plane then “overachieved” in its stealthiness and promptly hid by burying itself in a South Carolina swamp. It will remain there in hiding, detectable at close range only by the intolerable amount of smugness it generates….
Stay tuned!
Posted by: Chevrus | Sep 18 2023 17:40 utc | 42
This Cutting Edge Flying Garbage Can cannot be allowed into Russia hands, although it might provide an interlude in the fighting if the Russians can't stop laughing.
$200 million each, can't fly in stormy weather. It's a secret whether the Ejection Seat is made in China. And now the real Growth Sector of the U.S. economy, Debt, has an interest payment exceeding the U.S. Defense Budget.
The bet should be who lasts longer, Ukraine or the Deep Stench's District of Corruption?
Posted by: kupkee | Sep 18 2023 21:31 utc | 90
but this guy really does know he is playing this game of being a delusional psychopath attempting to role play as military intelligence .....doesn't he?
Posted by: Jo | Sep 18 2023 21:34 utc | 91
Going the 'Full Goebbels' across all available MSM willing to parrot the meme is a replacement for doing the full Monte. The 'Full Goebbels' will continue until Biden is re-elected. Like Norway, the US now has an official state religion. Lutherans might be displeased.
The Clintons are joining the fray.
HERE WE GO: Clinton Global Initiative to Launch Network to Provide ‘Humanitarian Aid’ to War-Torn Ukraine
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/09/here-we-go-clinton-global-initiative-launch-network/
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 18 2023 21:36 utc | 92
Right Kupkee? I honestly dont know anymore, given the propensity for money printing and kicking that can down the curb another decade as has been the case for quite some time now. But as the saying goes: pretty soon you’re talking about real money! I CAN tell you this though, the USA is being hollowed out from the inside like booze filled watermelon. The middle class is being destroyed, life expectancy is shrinking and the military grade psyops just keep coming. You might say they are being ‘boosted’…
At any rate, the F-35 is the laughing stock of the world at this rate. So far it has been able to lob a few glide bombs at Damascus airport from behind an airliner and thats it. Maybe one of them was poking around a bit too close to Russian AD and is now gone….thus the “lost” specimen in SC?
Posted by: Chevrus | Sep 18 2023 21:37 utc | 93
Russia must target Ukie Starokostiantyniv Air Base. That's still operating SU-24 jets that carry storm shadow and scalpel missiles. The new Kh-32 missiles should be used to destroy planes, hangers, fuel, warehouses, control tower, runways and support infrastructure.
Posted by: Crouching Tiger | Sep 18 2023 21:38 utc | 94
HERMIUS @ 52
Zelensky, in an interview on 60 Minutes USA accused the Russian people of "electing Putin, time after time".
I accuse the American people certainly since Reagan onward of electing a criminal, incompetent, destructive for the country, enemy of mankind, President time after time. Chomsky said so too. I don't watch 60 Minutes but I'm sure the interview rebutted with that up /S
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 18 2023 21:45 utc | 95
Good compilation of the Western press hyping up this failed counteroffensive:
https://fair.org/home/hyping-ukraine-counteroffensive-us-press-chose-propaganda-over-journalism/
Posted by: qwert | Sep 18 2023 21:52 utc | 96
The Russian strategy appears to be to hope that the West will come to its senses. This will not happen.
The West will continue to double down.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Sep 18 2023 16:20 utc | 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't think that's the case at all. I don't think the Russians give a shit what the west does ... they're fighting a war. The Russians aren't waiting for anything ... they are slowly taking apart what's probably the most fortified real estate on the planet.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Sep 18 2023 17:55 utc | 47
-----------------------------------------------------------
The Russian strategy appears to be to hope that the West will come to its senses. This will not happen.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Sep 18 2023 16:20 utc | 16
You are completely right.
The Russian leadership does not understand The Western mind.
Posted by: simplex | Sep 18 2023 20:05 utc | 72
---------------------------------------------------------
Posters who regularly belittle Col MacGregor, and other similarly informed posters, when they say the end is inevitable and the speed of Ukraine’s nemeses is rapidly accelerating, really need to spend less time Dima’ing and more time researching the organic nature of a military structure. Without a constant supply of trained personnel, an Army withers as surely as a plant does when denied vital nutrients for growth.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 18 2023 20:55 utc | 87
-----------------------------------------------------------
Once Russia is finished with Ukraine's long range artillery it will get even worse.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 18 2023 17:29 utc | 35
----------------------------------------------------------
Yes, Russia and its Global South team are on a roll. How the next several forums proceed will be quite interesting.
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 18 2023 17:01 utc | 27
===========================================================
The end is near. How, what, when is open. The Bear will always protect its cubs.
I would not underestimate Russian capability in understanding the Western mindset. Just listen carefully to all that karlof1 displays across the Russian spectrum. Ever read Lavrov, Putin, Mariakhova, et. al. Brains and control over the language and its tone.
Them ain't quitting. There will also be no version of a Tet Offensive for the benefit of NYT and US public opinion.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 18 2023 22:04 utc | 97
Reposted by: SCCC | From Sep 18 2023 22:06 utc | 204
??? NEW FORUM FORMAT ???
To B and All.
As many have previously suggested, if humanly possible for you, can you do anything about the format of this forum to protect against the constant fly-by-night raids by newbie trolls, known as barfleas. It is getting worse and worse. If others feel the same, speak up! The future of MoA may be at stake.
I don't know the range of suitable programs, but this one seems to be facilitating the degradation of MoA such that good people drop away from so much rubbish.
* Like name and email subscription validation, but still with handle. It might filter sincerity from shit-posting.
* Like some TG channels have a 24hr joining-delay period.
* Like some extra thread categories to reduce off topic posts. But then that might require tidy-up moderators.
* Your (mostly) daily fresh essay causes previous threads to just die off, thus many people repost their same old (but paraphrased) mental meanderings over and over to keep them seen. It's like the old "I've been ignored" bumping habit. It also causes worthy discussions to die out every 24 hours because people just move on from the "UKRAINE THREAD" reset.
I'm gunna post this occasionally to generate some discussion. Might be time for a change. Please correct me if I'm wrong/ignorant of the difficulties.
Posted by: SCCC | Sep 18 2023 22:26 utc | 98
Posted by: SCCC | Sep 18 2023 22:26 utc | 98
This format has worked perfectly well for years. There's always been parasites, trolls and crazies. Part of the ecosystem. I've been reading MoA for so long I can detect the style of the old handles, and there's about 10-12 regulars who are always on point (Uncle Tungsten, where the bloody hell are you?). I ignore the rest. Unless you're an old poster with a new handle you are not the first to presume to tell b what he should do.
Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 18 2023 22:35 utc | 99
Posted by: ed5 | Sep 18 2023 21:14 utc | 88
Who do you think managed those training programmes? For a bit of of a refresher course look up Operation Orbital, Interflex and Rapid Trident just to begin with, these are from open sources, and there are quite a few others beyond the reaches of wiki. Bottom line, top tier Ukrainian units were trained by NATO, exercised with NATO and then committed into combat by NATO. Ukraine had a system similar to WW2 Germany, with units undergoing basic, advanced and then combat training (fighting the militias), NATO oversaw each stage, though internal continuity training was provided organically.
The other reason for NATO oversight in the training was that the content was substantially different to the Soviet heritage training previously given, with a far greater emphasis on small unit actions, including raiding and ambushes. Both approaches though posed problems once the initial SMO contact lines settled. Militia units, often comprising of people who has previously been trained in Soviet tactics, ditched their Western model during combat (a psychological reaction to extreme stress ), and the relentless focus on small unit combat tactics precluded any large scale operations, a feature that still plagues Ukrainian attempts to launch substantial operations. Compare that with the numerous Russian divisional scale operations that seek to unhinge and dislocate Ukrainian defences by applying constant pressure.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 18 2023 22:43 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
I guess this timetable and disaster is all being done for Biden's re-election, some semblance of a "win" has to appear to prove that all the cost of living increases and inflation are "worth it"
though I have strong doubts on other candidates being able to put a stop to it, at least not until literally all the stockpiles in the West are depleted
Posted by: leaf | Sep 18 2023 15:26 utc | 1