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Ukraine SitRep: The War By Numbers Of Humans
When I was much younger and still lived in my hometown I was training two local female volleyball teams.
There was also a local team for men with disabilities. We had some friendly matches. Most of the men, then in their 50s to 60s, had had amputations. Some due to accidents but most due to the second world war. But even with only one leg or one arm they beat my teenage girl teams without much problems.
After such matches I often sat down with the men and talked about the war and the consequences it had for them. They had all done well and were living more or less normal lives. But many more who had been wounded like them had killed themselves or died young due to the long term consequences of their wounds.
The numbers further down remind me of those men.
Yves Smith looks at Ukraine's future:
The Coming Ukraine Collapse and the “Rebuilding” Headfake
Its economic prospects are terrible and all the talk about 'rebuilding' it is mostly nonsense:
Now after that introduction, to the main event of the exceedingly poor economic prospects for what will be left of Ukraine… which is not even known. It’s pretty remarkable to see chipper talk in the West of rebuilding Ukraine, since it presupposes there will be a meaningful Ukraine left. It’s reminiscent of children discussing how much of an ailing parent’s wealth they expect to carve up when the process of dying could well wipe out the remaining assets.
When the war is over Ukraine will be a bankrupt and largely empty country. Yves quotes Michael Vlahos who mentions a piece by the intel-connected Jamestown Foundation about Ukraine's population numbers.
I searched for and found it:
Ukraine’s Manpower Requirements Reaching a Critical Threshold
The piece was published two months ago and its numbers are grueling. Here are some snippets:
Considering that Ukraine has a population of about 20 million citizens, and given that the most recent data on the number of people mobilized into the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was last announced more than a year ago (at the time, it was reported that more than 1 million people had been mobilized), some estimates can be made based on how many new brigades have been created, the approximate number of those wounded and the calculations of the Ukrainian Ministry of Veterans Affairs regarding the potential number of combatants (up to 4 million) (Forbes.ua, July 8, 2022; Mva.gov.ua, May 23). Keeping in mind that Ukraine’s mobilization is permanent and that many have been wounded, the estimated number of mobilized Ukrainians totals about 2 million.
What does this mean for Ukraine? It means that 10 percent of the population is now involved with the armed forces, signifying that Ukraine’s mobilization reserve is rather small, with those pensioners who did not leave the country accounting for 10.7 million people (Pfu.gov.ua, July 12). All this means that Ukraine has approached a critical threshold with its personnel needs.
Twenty million minus the pensioners minus women and children leaves maybe some 6 million men that can potentially be mobilized. But many are still needed to run the economy and keep the trains rolling. The Minister of Veteran Affairs expects that there will be, in the end, some 4 million war veterans.
The war will likely end before that number is reached.
Since at least May the mobilization campaign has reached less than half the expected number (machine translation):
During July, only about 50% of the required number of soldiers was mobilized to the training centers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which may soon lead to a decrease in the combat capability of the Ukrainian army.
This is evidenced by a preliminary analysis conducted at the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a source in the department told Ukrainian Military Pages. A noticeable deterioration in the results of recruiting new recruits to the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues from May 2023. Especially critical problems with the replenishment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine look against the background of increasing combat losses due to the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army in the east and south and the offensive of Russian troops in the Kharkiv region.
Recall that in June, only 50% of those liable for military service from the number who were supposed to start training in training centers to replenish the Ukrainian army were also mobilized.
That lack of forces is the background of the recent mobilization corruption scandals. People had bribed the recruiters and doctors to get exempted. They will continue to do so.
Two million have already entered the Ukrainian army. Many of those have been wounded or killed.
Due to the war the number of people with disabilities in Ukraine has sharply increased (machine translation):
During the year and a half of the full-scale invasion, the number of Ukrainians with disabilities increased by 300 thousand.
Previously, 2.7 million people with disabilities lived in Ukraine, and now this figure has reached 3 million.
This was announced by the Minister of Social Policy Oksana Zholnovych at the opening of the All-Ukrainian Center for Comprehensive Rehabilitation for Persons with Disabilities, Ukrinform "Укрінформ"reports.
Given the miserable level of care for the wounded we can safely assume that a similar number of soldiers were killed.
Ukraine is running out of money and the minister wants to decrease social spending:
The Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine, Oksana Zholnovych, speaking at the International Sustainability Forum 2023 announced proposals to reform Ukraine’s social contract and social policies to aid the country’s further development.
…
In her opinion, in order to achieve success in the next 10 years, the state should not increase the number of existing social benefits.
…
Zolnovych says that it seems illogical for a veteran to earn a salary and pay tax which is later transferred back to him or her in some form of benefit. She feels that social policy should be a service that offers practical support where it is needed rather than just making payments.
Therefore, the Ministry proposes to develop these support services. Zolnovych gave examples: immigrants should be helped to adapt to their new life, find work, and integrate into society, if an individual has lost a limb, then they would receive help with finding and fitting a prosthesis, training how to use that prosthesis, and how to find appropriate work.
Some 20,000 of the wounded Ukrainian soldiers have had amputations:
There are not nearly enough prosthetic specialists in Ukraine to handle the growing need, said Olha Rudneva, the head of the Superhumans center for rehabilitating Ukrainian military amputees. Before the war, she said, only five people in all of Ukraine had formal rehabilitation training for people with arm or hand amputations, which in normal circumstances are less common than legs and feet as those sometimes are amputated due to complications with diabetes or other illnesses.
Rudneva estimated that 20,000 Ukrainians have endured at least one amputation since the war began. The government does not say how many of those are soldiers, but blast injuries are among the most common in a war with a long front line.
The lack of medical doctors in Ukraine was already serious when the war began. The war made it worse. It will now worsen even more. Starting October 1 female doctors and pharmacist will have to register for potential mobilization with the military enlistment office. Many are now fleeing the country as they fear that their travel will soon be restricted (machine translation):
Note that many doctors and nurses have long had military ID cards. Another thing is that there was no special control over the military registration of women until recently. For pharmacists, the prospect of becoming liable for military service is a novelty. And on this occasion, as the head of the association "FarmRada" Elena Prudnikova told us, the mood in the profile environment is alarming. The main thing that both doctors and pharmacists fear is the risk of being banned from leaving Ukraine.
According to Prudnikova, over the past two weeks, thousands of pharmacists have left in a hurry.
"Pharmacy owners are in a panic, people write applications and leave for Europe before the borders are closed to them. Who will work is an open question, especially since the industry is already in a severe crisis," Prudnikova told us.
The Ukrainian army will soon field body armor for female soldiers. There are currently some 5,000 female soldiers near the front lines. That could change if the Ukrainian military starts to mobilize more women.
As more Ukrainian soldiers defect to the Russian side the number of war prisoners has increased to about 9,000.
Civilian casualties have been low. The UN has registered less than 10,000 killed and less that 17,000 wounded.
The mobilization has serious consequences for Ukraine's economy. It lacks the labor force that is needed to keep it running.
As Yves writes:
Ukraine’s government is now substantially if not totally dependent on Western funding. Federal spending was $35 billion in 2021 and $61 billion in 2022. A substantial portion of US aid was to prop up the government.
And even if spending falls from war-level peaks, Ukraine’s fall in GDP (estimated at 25%, which seems low) in combination with not just an aged population, but now a large number of war disabled, including many amputees, means an increased social burden with greatly diminished productive capacity.
And we have not even factored in what happens if Russia eventually marches up to the Dnieper, getting even more of Ukraine’s most productive farm land, and/or takes the Black Sea coast, turning Ukraine into an even poorer landlocked rump state. The fact that the US is unwilling to make any concession to the key Russian demand of no Ukraine ever in NATO means Russia will prosecute the war until it has subjugated Ukraine, by whatever combination of conquest, installation of a captive government, and economic destruction needs to happen.
To 'rebuild' from that is likely impossible.
Note on the sanctions war mentioned above.
What impelled the governments of the West to enter into this venture? Why did we deploy the “Shock and Awe”, as they were called at the time, economic and financial sanctions?
This was, I believe, the reasoning behind the sanctions war (machine translation):-
“BRUNO LE MAIRE
“I will be very clear with you, Marc FAUVELLE, it is Russia that will suffer, not Europe. Europe will perhaps actually have a little more inflation, because perhaps gas prices will increase a little, but it is Russia which will suffer, it is the Russian economy which will suffer. And it is the Russian financial system that will collapse before our eyes. Europe, the only consequence it can have in the coming weeks is a small increase in prices, depending on the increase in energy prices.”
(Interview with Mr. Bruno Le Maire, Minister of the Economy, Finance and Recovery, to France Info on March 1, 2022, on economic sanctions against Russia after its attack on Ukraine and the economic repercussions for France)
https://www.vie-publique.fr/discours/284205-bruno-le-maire-01032022-ukraine
From the same source:-
“Yes, the sanctions are effective. Economic and financial sanctions are even extremely effective. And I do not want to leave any ambiguity about European determination on this subject. We are going to wage total economic and financial war on Russia…”
“The economic and financial balance of power is totally in favor of the European Union, which is in the process of discovering its economic power…”
Also the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission Josep Borrell , at the very start of the sanctions war, stated that the sanctions had been tailored to harm the RF as much as possible while inflicting as little damage as possible on the European economy.
On the face of it this looks plain foolish. The EU is dependent on supplies from Russia. How could it threaten or harm Russia by refusing to accept supplies from it? Even if that, and the financial sanctions, had devastated the Russian economy it must have devastated its own. Especially had the Russians retaliated by cutting off all supplies to Europe. It would not have taken long in that case for the European economy to crater.
But it does in fact make sense, if the devastation of the Russian economy had been immediate. A brief period of shortage of Russian supplies, or of no Russian supplies at all, could have been weathered by the European economy, that brief period coming to an end when Russia had been defeated. As a long term strategy the sanctions war could not work for Europe. But as a means of obtaining a quick kill it would have. As said in the interview the sanctions “must strike quickly and they must strike hard.”
(“We will have a G7 meeting this afternoon on the subject, and I have also called a meeting of European finance ministers tomorrow, to ensure the proper execution of these sanctions. They must strike quickly, they must strike hard, and as you have already said, we can see the effects. The ruble collapsed by 30%. Russian foreign exchange reserves are melting like snow in the sun, and Vladimir PUTIN’s famous war chest is already reduced to almost nothing. We see the collapse of the market, we also see the increase in inflation. We are going to see lines of Russians looking to get cash in banks. And then the central bank had no choice but to increase interest rates from 10 to 20%, which means that companies will not be able to borrow, except at very high rates, to invest. and to develop the economy. We will therefore cause the collapse of the Russian economy. they must hit hard, and we see the effects, as you have already said.”)
That the West was expecting, indeed thought it was witnessing, a quick kill was shown by President Biden’s Warsaw speech at the same time. The rouble down to 200, financial chaos in Russia, increasing shortages. This was the quick kill in action, the West striking quickly and hard.
“As a result of these unprecedented sanctions, the ruble almost is immediately reduced to rubble. The Russian economy — (applause) — that’s true, by the way. It takes about 200 rubles to equal one dollar.
“The economy is on track to be cut in half in the coming years. It was ranked — Russia’s economy was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this evasion [sic] — invasion. It will soon not even rank among the top 20 in the world. (Applause.)
“Taken together, these economic sanctions are a new kind of economic statecraft with the power to inflict damage that rivals military might.”)
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/03/26/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-united-efforts-of-the-free-world-to-support-the-people-of-ukraine/
And the benefits of that quick kill of the Russian economy also laid out in the two sources cited:-
“My message to the rest of Europe, this new battle for freedom has already made a few things crystal clear. First, Europe must end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. And we, the United States will help. [Applause] That’s why just yesterday in Brussels I announced the plan with the president of the European Commission to get Europe through the immediate energy crisis. Over the long-term, as a matter of economic security and national security and for the survivability of the planet, we all need to move as quickly as possible to clean, renewable energy.”
That completing the Trump/Grenell drive to detach Germany from Russian suppliers. Also, it was hoped, to sell Germany LNG instead. Also a boost for Net Zero.
.And for the Europeans?
“What this Ukrainian crisis shows, and what the European response shows, is that Europe cannot be content with being an economic and financial power, even if it is effective, it must also become a military power. And the paradox of this whole situation is that it is the violence of Vladimir PUTIN which will finally create European strategic independence..”
That bringing the EU further along the path of becoming the United States of Europe, with appropriate independent military power. Placing Europe in the position of being able to “Project the power of Continent”, the dream of European integrationists for decades. Also boosting European defence industry production.
Also getting rid of a decidedly inconvenient Russian President:-
“For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power..”
That period marked the high tide of Western hopes. So many goals. So many results hoped for from the sanctions war against Russia.
And the military defeat of Russia in Ukraine was another result that would have been surely automatic. For with Putin gone, the Russian economy in tatters, and the RF itself suffering the consequences of the hoped for destabilisation, it is scarcely likely that Russia would have had the requisite resources and will to fight the 700,000 strong NATO trained and equipped Ukrainian army.
But the quick kill did not succeed. It soon became apparent to all that the sanctions war had failed.
With that any prospect of Ukrainian military victory vanished. It was clear by mid 2022 at the latest that our project Ukraine was a bust. Why, then, are we even now shovelling thousands upon thousands of unfortunate Ukrainians into the killing fields?
Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:17 utc | 17
Note on the sanctions war mentioned above.
What impelled the governments of the West to enter into this venture? Why did we deploy the “Shock and Awe”, as they were called at the time, economic and financial sanctions?
This was, I believe, the reasoning behind the sanctions war (machine translation):-
“BRUNO LE MAIRE
“I will be very clear with you, Marc FAUVELLE, it is Russia that will suffer, not Europe. Europe will perhaps actually have a little more inflation, because perhaps gas prices will increase a little, but it is Russia which will suffer, it is the Russian economy which will suffer. And it is the Russian financial system that will collapse before our eyes. Europe, the only consequence it can have in the coming weeks is a small increase in prices, depending on the increase in energy prices.”
(Interview with Mr. Bruno Le Maire, Minister of the Economy, Finance and Recovery, to France Info on March 1, 2022, on economic sanctions against Russia after its attack on Ukraine and the economic repercussions for France)
https://www.vie-publique.fr/discours/284205-bruno-le-maire-01032022-ukraine
From the same source:-
“Yes, the sanctions are effective. Economic and financial sanctions are even extremely effective. And I do not want to leave any ambiguity about European determination on this subject. We are going to wage total economic and financial war on Russia…”
“The economic and financial balance of power is totally in favor of the European Union, which is in the process of discovering its economic power…”
Also the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission Josep Borrell , at the very start of the sanctions war, stated that the sanctions had been tailored to harm the RF as much as possible while inflicting as little damage as possible on the European economy.
On the face of it this looks plain foolish. The EU is dependent on supplies from Russia. How could it threaten or harm Russia by refusing to accept supplies from it? Even if that, and the financial sanctions, had devastated the Russian economy it must have devastated its own. Especially had the Russians retaliated by cutting off all supplies to Europe. It would not have taken long in that case for the European economy to crater.
But it does in fact make sense, if the devastation of the Russian economy had been immediate. A brief period of shortage of Russian supplies, or of no Russian supplies at all, could have been weathered by the European economy, that brief period coming to an end when Russia had been defeated. As a long term strategy the sanctions war could not work for Europe. But as a means of obtaining a quick kill it would have. As said in the interview the sanctions “must strike quickly and they must strike hard.”
(“We will have a G7 meeting this afternoon on the subject, and I have also called a meeting of European finance ministers tomorrow, to ensure the proper execution of these sanctions. They must strike quickly, they must strike hard, and as you have already said, we can see the effects. The ruble collapsed by 30%. Russian foreign exchange reserves are melting like snow in the sun, and Vladimir PUTIN’s famous war chest is already reduced to almost nothing. We see the collapse of the market, we also see the increase in inflation. We are going to see lines of Russians looking to get cash in banks. And then the central bank had no choice but to increase interest rates from 10 to 20%, which means that companies will not be able to borrow, except at very high rates, to invest. and to develop the economy. We will therefore cause the collapse of the Russian economy. they must hit hard, and we see the effects, as you have already said.”)
That the West was expecting, indeed thought it was witnessing, a quick kill was shown by President Biden’s Warsaw speech at the same time. The rouble down to 200, financial chaos in Russia, increasing shortages. This was the quick kill in action, the West striking quickly and hard.
“As a result of these unprecedented sanctions, the ruble almost is immediately reduced to rubble. The Russian economy — (applause) — that’s true, by the way. It takes about 200 rubles to equal one dollar.
“The economy is on track to be cut in half in the coming years. It was ranked — Russia’s economy was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this evasion [sic] — invasion. It will soon not even rank among the top 20 in the world. (Applause.)
“Taken together, these economic sanctions are a new kind of economic statecraft with the power to inflict damage that rivals military might.”)
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/03/26/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-united-efforts-of-the-free-world-to-support-the-people-of-ukraine/
And the benefits of that quick kill of the Russian economy also laid out in the two sources cited:-
“My message to the rest of Europe, this new battle for freedom has already made a few things crystal clear. First, Europe must end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. And we, the United States will help. [Applause] That’s why just yesterday in Brussels I announced the plan with the president of the European Commission to get Europe through the immediate energy crisis. Over the long-term, as a matter of economic security and national security and for the survivability of the planet, we all need to move as quickly as possible to clean, renewable energy.”
That completing the Trump/Grenell drive to detach Germany from Russian suppliers. Also, it was hoped, to sell Germany LNG instead. Also a boost for Net Zero.
.And for the Europeans?
“What this Ukrainian crisis shows, and what the European response shows, is that Europe cannot be content with being an economic and financial power, even if it is effective, it must also become a military power. And the paradox of this whole situation is that it is the violence of Vladimir PUTIN which will finally create European strategic independence..”
That bringing the EU further along the path of becoming the United States of Europe, with appropriate independent military power. Placing Europe in the position of being able to “Project the power of Continent”, the dream of European integrationists for decades. Also boosting European defence industry production.
Also getting rid of a decidedly inconvenient Russian President:-
“For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power..”
That period marked the high tide of Western hopes. So many goals. So many results hoped for from the sanctions war against Russia.
And the military defeat of Russia in Ukraine was another result that would have been surely automatic. For with Putin gone, the Russian economy in tatters, and the RF itself suffering the consequences of the hoped for destabilisation, it is scarcely likely that Russia would have had the requisite resources and will to fight the 700,000 strong NATO trained and equipped Ukrainian army.
But the quick kill did not succeed. It soon became apparent to all that the sanctions war had failed.
With that any prospect of Ukrainian military victory vanished. It was clear by mid 2022 at the latest that our project Ukraine was a bust. Why, then, are we even now shovelling thousands upon thousands of unfortunate Ukrainians into the killing fields?
Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:17 utc | 18
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