It's much worse than Yves estimates. My (very rough) estimate:

Population within Kiev controled territory
Starting point 34 million as of 2014
Less
5 million fled to Europe 2014-21
5 million fled to Europe 2022-23
3 million fled to Russia 2014-21
3 million fled to Russia 2022-23
7 million living in DPR, LPR, Crimea
————————
11 million Remaining in Kiev controled Territory

N.B. The rippling impacts of war wounded and deaths last into the 3rd and 4th generations. It’s staggering when one understands how deeply damaging war is.

Posted by: Exile | Sep 22 2023 17:56 utc | 1

I think the war will not continue for much longer. The USA is prodding Zelenskyy to start to negotiate, and I think the increased and frankly embarrassing strikes on the Black Sea fleet are a message to Russia to keep its negotiation demands reasonable. Either a frozen conflict at the line of control, or perhaps an agreement similar to what was almost hammered out near the beginning of the war in Istanbul (and which almost all pro-Russians would consider nearly a capituation). Putin and the Russian government regularly go on about how close they were to a deal and what a shame it is that it fell through. I think a similar deal is in the offing soon, with the stick of relentless strikes on the hapless Black Sea fleet (it really does seem particularly incompetent) and Russia’s general inability to deal with large missile/Himars strikes mixed with drones, as well as the carrot of resuming exports to Europe, vacations there, iPhones, Hollywood movies and European cars purchased in peace

Posted by: Simon | Sep 22 2023 18:02 utc | 2

"To 'rebuild' from that is likely impossible." ~ b

Never fear, the Clinton Grifter Initiative is here.... to save the day.... once again:

The Clinton Global Initiative will announce the launch of the CGI Ukraine Action Network, as well as numerous financial pledges, to support nonprofits working in the country . . .

The CGI Ukraine Action Network is the result of a collaboration between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Olena Zelenska, first lady of Ukraine, that began last year. The new organization, which will be formally announced Tuesday, is designed to mobilize existing CGI partners, as well as new leaders from around the world, to create and finance new commitments for Ukrainians, according to CGI.

https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-top-headlines/ap-clinton-global-initiative-will-launch-network-to-provide-new-humanitarian-aid-to-ukrainians/

Posted by: majoab | Sep 22 2023 18:08 utc | 3

Take any UA figures in any way relating to manpower with a small planetoid worth of salt. Recruitment, force size, casualties, etc.

All these numbers are metrics that relate to different categories of financial or material assistance, and thus good incentive to fake them in a country optimized for that sort of thing.

Posted by: pxx | Sep 22 2023 18:08 utc | 4

The Ukrainian army will soon field body armor for female soldiers. There are currently some 5,000 female soldiers near the front lines. That could change if the Ukrainian military starts to mobilize more women."

If US imperialism is as crazy as it looks it will eventually have to draft soldiers and the stupid girl power idpol of the last several decades will justify including young women. It would be great if they could send all the metoo Hollywood sluts to the front line, but that's not going to happen. It will be our good daughters forced into the slaughter.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 22 2023 18:08 utc | 5

It's a waiting time at present. Waiting to see how the Russians proceed in the military conflict. Waiting to see how they deal with the problem of remnant Ukraine. Waiting to see whether they return to their 2021 security demands and if so how. Waiting to see how Europe copes with the new dispensation.

A lot of waiting. And in the meantime, the Ukrainian PBI sent to death in droves. Partly at the insistence of the ultra-nationalist controlled government they've been landed with. Partly, as the meeting between Milley, Cavoli and Radakin with Zaluzhnyi demonstrated, at ours. Why?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/top-nato-generals-meet-with-ukrainian-military-in-secret-meeting-to-co-ordinate-strategy/ar-AA1fXdyX

I asked that question at greater length on Andrei Martyanov's site recently. Might I also ask it here? Some time ago "b" termed what we are doing to our proxies a "crime". So it is. Any ideas on why we are persisting with this crime?

Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:09 utc | 6

In the UK a very senior military figure, General Lord Richards, was warning, very soon after the start of the SMO, that he feared our proxies were engaged in a conflict they were unlikely to win. Using just that term. "Proxy".

General Richards is most certainly not a "Putinversteher", very much the reverse, I believe, and was looking at the conflict purely from a professional point of view. Similar warnings were issued by Generals Kujat and Zorn in Germany, again experienced and senior military professionals, and General Twitty among others in the US.

And in fact one did not have to be a senior military professional to know that the disparity in military power was too great for the Kiev forces to have a chance of avoiding defeat. And that that would be the case even were NATO assistance given directly: the 2019 Rand study warned explicitly that the Russians even then would have the advantage should conflict erupt in Ukraine. Given that the US had insufficient military force in Europe, and no prospect of bringing sufficient force to bear in any reasonable time, that conclusion arrived at in the Rand study was also self-evident.

There was never any prospect of victory for Kiev except in one case. That the sanctions war against Russia weakened Russia sufficiently for Russia to be unable to continue the military conflict successfully.

The sanctions war against Russia had clearly failed soon after February 2022. From then on it was self-evident to any dispassionate observer, if it had not been before, that Ukraine would be defeated. Barring escalation to the nuclear level the result of this war was known, at the latest, by mid 2022. And above are given examples of senior Western professional soldiers who had come to this conclusion sometimes well before.

Further, the sanctions war itself was unlikely to be won. Victory in a sanctions war against a country self-sufficient in food, fuel and raw materials, and with a strongly developed industrial base, was always unlikely. Again, warnings of the likelihood of failure in the sanctions war had been given by Fed officials who, it was reported, were advising strongly against the sanctions war even before it was engaged in.

That's seven paragraphs taken to state what was obvious on February 24th 2022: that with or without Western assistance the Ukraine would not defeat Russia.

That leads to the central question of this war. Why were our proxies encouraged for so long to engage in and continue with, and at such cost in territory and lives, a conflict it was self-evident they could not win?

And why, even at this late stage in their defeat, are they still driven on in this conflict by the West?

Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:13 utc | 7

I see b continues the policy of lying to himself and his audience in order to keep the years long narrative of "Russia Strong" viable. Is there any wonder that very little of what is written here by the author and the commentators ever comes to fruition? Anyway here is the reality

Russia has spent $25.6 billion on compensation to families of deceased soldiers and $21 billion on compensation to the wounded. Putin has previously signed a decree earlier in the year ordering the payout of $68,800 to the families of deceased and $41,300 to soldiers that are wounded. Using this we can get a glance at potential Russian casualties assuming zero corruption and money laundering.

According to the expenditures by the Russian Government they have conducted payouts to the next of kin for 372,093 soldiers killed in action.

According to expenditures by the Russian government, they have conducted payouts to 508,474 soldiers wounded in action.

According to Russian expenditures, Russian casualties in the past 18 months are as follows.
KIA: 372,093
WIA: 508,474
Total Casualties: 880,567

The depletion of the Russian-speaking population of the world continues swimmingly.

Posted by: Soothsayer | Sep 22 2023 18:16 utc | 8

Note on the sanctions war mentioned above.

What impelled the governments of the West to enter into this venture? Why did we deploy the "Shock and Awe", as they were called at the time, economic and financial sanctions?

This was, I believe, the reasoning behind the sanctions war (machine translation):-

"BRUNO LE MAIRE

"I will be very clear with you, Marc FAUVELLE, it is Russia that will suffer, not Europe. Europe will perhaps actually have a little more inflation, because perhaps gas prices will increase a little, but it is Russia which will suffer, it is the Russian economy which will suffer. And it is the Russian financial system that will collapse before our eyes. Europe, the only consequence it can have in the coming weeks is a small increase in prices, depending on the increase in energy prices."

(Interview with Mr. Bruno Le Maire, Minister of the Economy, Finance and Recovery, to France Info on March 1, 2022, on economic sanctions against Russia after its attack on Ukraine and the economic repercussions for France)

https://www.vie-publique.fr/discours/284205-bruno-le-maire-01032022-ukraine

From the same source:-

"Yes, the sanctions are effective. Economic and financial sanctions are even extremely effective. And I do not want to leave any ambiguity about European determination on this subject. We are going to wage total economic and financial war on Russia…"

"The economic and financial balance of power is totally in favor of the European Union, which is in the process of discovering its economic power..."

Also the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission Josep Borrell , at the very start of the sanctions war, stated that the sanctions had been tailored to harm the RF as much as possible while inflicting as little damage as possible on the European economy.

On the face of it this looks plain foolish. The EU is dependent on supplies from Russia. How could it threaten or harm Russia by refusing to accept supplies from it? Even if that, and the financial sanctions, had devastated the Russian economy it must have devastated its own. Especially had the Russians retaliated by cutting off all supplies to Europe. It would not have taken long in that case for the European economy to crater.

But it does in fact make sense, if the devastation of the Russian economy had been immediate. A brief period of shortage of Russian supplies, or of no Russian supplies at all, could have been weathered by the European economy, that brief period coming to an end when Russia had been defeated. As a long term strategy the sanctions war could not work for Europe. But as a means of obtaining a quick kill it would have. As said in the interview the sanctions "must strike quickly and they must strike hard."

("We will have a G7 meeting this afternoon on the subject, and I have also called a meeting of European finance ministers tomorrow, to ensure the proper execution of these sanctions. They must strike quickly, they must strike hard, and as you have already said, we can see the effects. The ruble collapsed by 30%. Russian foreign exchange reserves are melting like snow in the sun, and Vladimir PUTIN's famous war chest is already reduced to almost nothing. We see the collapse of the market, we also see the increase in inflation. We are going to see lines of Russians looking to get cash in banks. And then the central bank had no choice but to increase interest rates from 10 to 20%, which means that companies will not be able to borrow, except at very high rates, to invest. and to develop the economy. We will therefore cause the collapse of the Russian economy. they must hit hard, and we see the effects, as you have already said.")

That the West was expecting, indeed thought it was witnessing, a quick kill was shown by President Biden's Warsaw speech at the same time. The rouble down to 200, financial chaos in Russia, increasing shortages. This was the quick kill in action, the West striking quickly and hard.

"As a result of these unprecedented sanctions, the ruble almost is immediately reduced to rubble. The Russian economy — (applause) — that’s true, by the way. It takes about 200 rubles to equal one dollar.

"Taken together, these economic sanctions are a new kind of economic statecraft with the power to inflict damage that rivals military might.")

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/03/26/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-united-efforts-of-the-free-world-to-support-the-people-of-ukraine/

And the benefits of that quick kill of the Russian economy also laid out in the two sources cited:-

"My message to the rest of Europe, this new battle for freedom has already made a few things crystal clear. First, Europe must end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. And we, the United States will help. [Applause] That's why just yesterday in Brussels I announced the plan with the president of the European Commission to get Europe through the immediate energy crisis. Over the long-term, as a matter of economic security and national security and for the survivability of the planet, we all need to move as quickly as possible to clean, renewable energy."

That completing the Trump/Grenell drive to detach Germany from Russian suppliers. Also, it was hoped, to sell Germany LNG instead. Also a boost for Net Zero.

.And for the Europeans?

"What this Ukrainian crisis shows, and what the European response shows, is that Europe cannot be content with being an economic and financial power, even if it is effective, it must also become a military power. And the paradox of this whole situation is that it is the violence of Vladimir PUTIN which will finally create European strategic independence.."

That bringing the EU further along the path of becoming the United States of Europe, with appropriate independent military power. Placing Europe in the position of being able to "Project the power of Continent", the dream of European integrationists for decades. Also boosting European defence industry production.

Also getting rid of a decidedly inconvenient Russian President:-

"For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.."

That period marked the high tide of Western hopes. So many goals. So many results hoped for from the sanctions war against Russia.

And the military defeat of Russia in Ukraine was another result that would have been surely automatic. For with Putin gone, the Russian economy in tatters, and the RF itself suffering the consequences of the hoped for destabilisation, it is scarcely likely that Russia would have had the requisite resources and will to fight the 700,000 strong NATO trained and equipped Ukrainian army.

But the quick kill did not succeed. It soon became apparent to all that the sanctions war had failed.

With that any prospect of Ukrainian military victory vanished. It was clear by mid 2022 at the latest that our project Ukraine was a bust. Why, then, are we even now shovelling thousands upon thousands of unfortunate Ukrainians into the killing fields?

Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:17 utc | 9

Yugoslavia and Ukraine bombing victims compared?

UN has registered less than 10,000 killed

Almost all of the killed civilians are "Russians". Most victims are in Donbass, on both sides of the front line. DPR published figures of about 2000 civilians killed on their side. A larger number of people may have been killed in Mariupol, but left out of the UN figures.

If I remember correctly, the NATO terror bombing of Yugoslavia claimed 2000 civilian victims. There were no ground battles. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine have claimed very few civilian victims. Most of those killed have been killed by Ukrainian S-300 air defense missiles falling on civilian buildings.

The Tochka massacre in Kramatorsk may have been intentional.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 22 2023 18:19 utc | 10

Posted by: Soothsayer | Sep 22 2023 18:16 utc | 8

dasvidaniya
https://youtube.com/watch?v=p55qkzcxn1k

Posted by: Fantasma | Sep 22 2023 18:22 utc | 11

man... this is so so sad............. all for usa imperialism... what a complete waste and disaster..

Posted by: james | Sep 22 2023 18:23 utc | 12

Posted by: Soothsayer | Sep 22 2023 18:16 utc | 8

Your figures are completely FAKE. Have you ever been to Russia and has worked in the front-line of this USA led proxy war?

Posted by: AI | Sep 22 2023 18:25 utc | 13

Why, then, are we even now shovelling thousands upon thousands of unfortunate Ukrainians into the killing fields?

Hubris, mostly. That and for some an awareness of the yawning abyss awaiting them under the paper thin illusion of financial stability.

In these very threads you can find many a naysayer, paid shill or no, who will without shame tell you the world is indeed flat, and that Ukraine is winning the conflict with Russia.

That this is so far from the truth as to be an inversion matters not a whit to these people. Lies apon lies to justify their limitless appetite.

One can only lie for so long.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 22 2023 18:29 utc | 14

There is widespread confusion about the ongoing intra-RC struggle,
which is especially concentrated in multiple wrong theories about the
"Istanbul negotiations". It is particularly urgent that this
confusion be resolved, in light of Blinken's speech at Johns Hopkins.

Starting from well before Biden's [s]election, the great majority of
the RC agreed that the US should unite with Russia to wage a decisive
struggle against China. The intra-RC division was between making
concessions to Russia in order to draw it into an alliance, or
defeating Russia, thereby reducing it to a vassal state. Perhaps 10%
were clearly in the first camp, 40% clearly in the second, with the
remaining 50% having various shades of opinion. The main objection of
the first camp was that US military potential would be degraded if it
were drawn into this conflict, undermining the fight against China.
Hence, the majority were won over to the second position based on the
promise that the "Sanctions from Hell" would collapse Russia. In
particular, it was promised that there would be no major commitment of
arms and certainly not of troops. Biden was selected based on this
program.

When the sanctions failed, the "defeat Russia" program required a
massive commitment of weapons and the introduction of significant US
and NATO forces. The "Istanbul negotiations" were a charade, in which
both sides participated for very different reasons. On the US side,
Zelensky was ordered to participate by the core "defeat Russia" group
in order to demonstrate to the wavering component of the RC that a
catastrophic defeat/surrender was imminent unless the previous
commitment against massive arms deliveries was broken. After this
internal RC struggle was resolved, Johnson supposedly "convinced"
Zelensky to continue the fight by "offering" him unlimited weapons.
In reality, this was just part of the charade, with Johnson and
Zelensky acting out complementary roles for the benefit of the waving
RC.

It would take me too far afield to discuss Russia's reasons for
participating in this charade, except to say that Russian knew at 100%
confidence that it was a charade.

It is clear from the Jeddah conference, built around the Zelensky
"Peace Plan" of unconditional Russian surrender, that the "defeat
Russia" group had high confidence in the success of the offensive,
probably in part because if they did not exude such confidence, they
could not have won over the majority of the RC at the previous stage.

In the wake of its failure. various oppositional groupings are groping
their way toward some new plan to reconcile with Russia and so ally
against China, which obviously would have a much weaker basis than
prior to the SMO. Blinken's JH speech charts a new path forward that
completely departs from the pre-Biden-selection plan around which the
RC previously united. That is, instead of uniting with Russia (as
either an ally or a vassal) to fight China, rather fighting a
two-front war/struggle against both. This will require a new level of
commitment (beyond arms packages), and because this is not at all what
the RC as a whole signed up for, the Biden+ grouping will have to
bring a new "argument" to bear.

The new level of commitment will be to put (mainly non-US) NATO troops
onto the Ukraine front lines, leaving the US free to engage China.
These will first of all be Polish and German troops. The reason that
Scholz said he would never send troops is that he has already been
told that he must do this, as he was previously told to cut off NS,
supply Leopards etc, all of which he likewise initially said that he
would never do.

The new "argument" (similar to the Istanbul-charade argument) is that
the US will suffer an even more devastating defeat, essentially
expulsion from Europe, unless this 2-front-war course is adopted.

Mercouris and Chistoforou have ridiculed Blinken's speech as
cliche-ridden in form and clueless/unworkable in content. Blinken
himself is a mouthpiece, and the plan was clearly developed by someone
much smarter (simply because it would be difficult to find anyone
stupider). It is a dangerous plan, but it is not clueless, and indeed
is the only viable way forward for the RC. Hence, it will almost
certainly be adopted.

Posted by: Cindy Martin | Sep 22 2023 18:30 utc | 15

continues the policy of lying to himself

Who are you trying to convince, yourself or us? It would appear that you still believe in Santy Claus.

You sure showed up us 'intellectshuals' eh, reposting verbatim the claims of the increasingly unhinged Ukrainian MoD. Luckily you won't be held accoutable for such excretable analysis.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 22 2023 18:35 utc | 16

re: The Ukrainian army will soon field body armor for 5 thousand female soldiers.
The 400 thousand females in the active US Army, reserves and national guard have had female body armor for a couple years.

..from Army Times, Jun 8, 2021
New body armor carrier, plates and female-focused designs headed to soldiers

When Maj. Melissa Elledge was a brand-new soldier ploughing through basic training, she had to find gear shortcuts simply to accomplish basic tasks, such as firing her weapon.
“I spent the whole 10 weeks of basic training with a bruise in my bicep because that’s where I put the buttstock,” Elledge told Army Times. “I either had to pull away the body armor to fix my weapon, or what was easier, use my bicep.”. .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 22 2023 18:36 utc | 17

I don't think there's any doubt where this murderous farce will end up...Medvedev represents the Russian consensus when he demands complete extermination of the Nazis and Ukrainian military and reduction of what's left of the Ukraine to a Russian controlled rump state..Also,I don't think Ukraine will be left with any access to the Black Sea, and other ports will be sanitized to prevent SAS terrorism...

Posted by: pyrrhus | Sep 22 2023 18:42 utc | 18

@ Simon # 2

Russia is winning. They know what the U.S.wants. Rest assured, they won't get it. Moscow holds all the cards AND has the rest of the world on it's side. The U.S.has a presidential election coming. Why would Russia waste such an opportunity to get everything it wants?

Posted by: Beibdnn. | Sep 22 2023 18:46 utc | 19

End of August the number of Ukrainian soldiers KIA stood at 400k as admitted by an Ukrainian fund raiser:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BfznrNOIJY

Ukrainian operator Kyivstar accidentally admitted to the real losses of Ukraine.

❗️The operator has launched a charity event - send a message with the word "thank you" to the number of the fallen soldier. But in the promo they accidentally admitted that “400 thousand heroes will never answer the phone.”🤦

Of course, the video was deleted... but the Internet remembers everything!!!🤷

One of the commenters "wilsoncipriano" made a reference to the ratio POW/KIA. Usually this is more than 1 to 100 and in Afghanistan according to open sources, almost 1 to 200. 1 to 100 with a POW count of 9k as revealed by b would mean 900k KIA. A lower ratio (1 to 50) might be explained by low morale amongst conscripts refusing to fight.

For The Sirius Report the consensus is at 450k KIA.

So far the likes of Lindsey 'Lady G' Graham are getting their way with 'to the last Ukrainian'.

Posted by: xor | Sep 22 2023 18:51 utc | 20

War for NATO and the USA until the last ukrainian.

https://t.me/ragulinho/8350

Posted by: Crazy idiot | Sep 22 2023 18:59 utc | 21

Excellent piece of work B. It puts everything in perspective, especially the comment that this is a cheap war for the US.
This is a multi generational crisis for Ukraine and ultimately Europe. Nothing has been learnt from history on the continent of Europe.
Peace and prosperity from Siberia to Portugal was not very long ago a slight possibility.
Once again the city of London has destroyed the lives of millions and created long lasting hatred between countries on the continent.

Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Sep 22 2023 19:00 utc | 22

Recently some unusual messaging has come out of the Ukraine high command. I assume they either got a bad batch or need better quality mother's little helpers. From An Offer We Can’t Refuse?

Posted by: kana | Sep 22 2023 19:01 utc | 23

@19, I’ve learned never to doubt Putin’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Russia is clearly winning the front line war, but the strikes on Crimea and the Black Sea fleet show that no one in the world has a viable defense against even medium sized missile strikes coupled with diversionary drones. Ships, submarines, S400s and Black Sea fleet headquarters don’t grow on trees, and the way this war is fought, Russia isn’t “allowed” to strike the manifold Nato support actions which make these strikes possible. Putin might just get a bit tired of it and he seems to have a different definition of winning compared to regular Russians. The Istanbul negotiations were insane from a Russian perspective, even the status of Crimea was left open, and Putin has said on many occasions what a shame it was that those negotiations fell through. Post Covid Putin just strikes me as kind of a weird guy. From the initial decision to launch what was a ham-fisted invasion to vocally drawing red lines to then do nothing, to bragging about negotiations that almost gave pro-Russians heart attacks when the terms leaked

Posted by: Simon | Sep 22 2023 19:02 utc | 24

Soothsayer, you are such an idiot ... why do you even try?

Your source, which you intentionally do not link, is a Forbes piece which says:

... according to Forbes estimates based on data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This estimate does not include ongoing defense expenditures unrelated to military operations, as well as the economic losses incurred by the aggressor country.

The total 2023 military budget of Russia, double as high as the 2022 budget, is about $100 billion.

The Forbes numbers are mere fantasies.

Posted by: b | Sep 22 2023 19:06 utc | 25

The demographics for Ukraine are even worse. It was becoming a majority pensioner nation before this. Is Kiev going to cut back on supporting the babushkas?

As for the unlinked claim of Russian losses above, the Russian internet is absolutely full of Doomers. Any successful action by Ukraine, any failure of Russian forces, anything becomes the end of the world. There is literally no way that massive casualties would or even could be covered up. Western reporters are still allowed to operate on Russia. Plenty of Russian liberals have plenty of contacts in the west. If Russia were building cemeteries to hold all those bodies we’d all know about it. And the voices for nuking Kiev, London and DC would be so loud that Putin might have to do it.

As per usual, any Ukrainian adjacent estimate of Russian losses should be read as an admission of Ukrainian losses.

Posted by: Lex | Sep 22 2023 19:09 utc | 26

I fund this point by Von Der Leyan to be a bit odd:

Speech, Atlantic Council, Yesterday, Addressing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida

Many of your relatives lost their life when the atomic bomb razed Hiroshima to the ground. You have grown up with the stories of survivors. <...> ... especially at a time when Russia threatens to use nuclear weapons once again. It is heinous, it is dangerous – and in the shadow of Hiroshima, it is unforgivable.

link: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_4539

Posted by: jared | Sep 22 2023 19:13 utc | 27

Lol Soothsayer at post #8 says B is lying to himself and proceeds to quote the Ukranian Armed Forces statements

Lol

LOL

Lol

From the Forbes article:

"Forbes reported based on data from the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces."

"Forbes reported based on data from the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces."

"Forbes reported based on data from the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces."

https://forbes.ua/war-in-ukraine/za-pivtora-roku-rosiya-vitratila-na-viynu-z-ukrainoyu-blizko-1673-mlrd-z-nikh-tilki-tekhniki-na-ponad-34-mlrd-rozrakhunki-forbes-16092023-16050
Lolz

Posted by: Comandante | Sep 22 2023 19:14 utc | 28

Sorry B you beat me to it :)

Posted by: Comandante | Sep 22 2023 19:16 utc | 29

Le Serpent (de la propagande) se mord la queue.....

@Soothsayer # 8

I just Googled your

"compensation to the families of the soldiers killed in action ($25.6 billion) and wounded in action ($21 billion)"

Forbes reported based on data from the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

Posted by: La Bastille | Sep 22 2023 19:20 utc | 30

When you live in the top/bottom world I do then this part of the civilization war we is being fought down to the last bottom class human.

To the global elite, any country's citizens are cannon fodder for wars to keep them in power or extend that power and control further.

The China/Russia axis now pose an existential threat to what I call the God Of Mammon cult of Western "elite". Ukraine is just one of many countries they would happily feed into the military meat-grinder to continue their domination a while longer.

It is sick/sad to watch our species allowing such senseless killing to happen but from an anthropological view, maybe the death numbers are to be expected after a meme reign (private/not sovereign money) of 2K years. I say 2K years because part of the meme being challenged today is the Might-Makes-Right barbaric patriarchy that became dominant around that time.

I keep wanting the aliens to stop by and provide a major hubris check for our species.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 22 2023 19:21 utc | 31

Sorry b., sorry Comandante.....

Lol

Posted by: La Bastille | Sep 22 2023 19:21 utc | 32

b’s recollections are similar to mine after a visit to the Soviet Union in the early 80’s. Every museum we visited (Leningrad, so quite a few) had WW2 veterans with various amputations looking after the buildings. In the ones dedicated to the GPW they wore their uniforms and medals looking a sad sight, hunched in their ticket booths, watching you with their haunted eyes.

I later found out that over 230,000 cars of one model, the SMZ, had been built specifically to provide a four wheel model for disabled drivers, to replace the tricycle ones made after the war. Given the relative rarity of car-ownership, during this period, this production figure is suggestive of the number of war-invalids the Russians had to accommodate.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 22 2023 19:25 utc | 33

@26 it’s absolutely true that the Russian internet and Russia generally are full of doomers. It’s part of the culture and it was in Ukraine before as well. So I agree with your broad point that Russia isn’t and can’t hide some hypothetical huge losses, there would be thousands of disgruntled Russian liberals blaring the news to everyone they knew abroad. But Russia did take significant losses, tens of thousands killed (vs low hundreds of thousands in Ukraine). Those are significant casualties, certainly in less than 2 years of war. The Black Sea fleet flagship sunk, himars strikes on depots and hqs every week, drone attacks in Moscow City, this is not what anyone in Russia expected back in 2021. It’s mostly hardening opinion, not demoralizing it, but nevertheless this is a major war for Russia, bigger than Vietnam was for the USA.

Posted by: Simon | Sep 22 2023 19:26 utc | 34

Ukraine has cracked itself and its future against the Surovikin line. But hey, at least they "broke through the first line".

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 22 2023 19:28 utc | 35

Clinton Global Initiative will announce the launch of the CGI Ukraine Action Network, as well as numerous financial pledges, to support nonprofits working in the country . . .

https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-top-headlines/ap-clinton-global-initiative-will-launch-network-to-provide-new-humanitarian-aid-to-ukrainians/

Posted by: majoab | Sep 22 2023 18:08 utc | 3

Gee, no skimming opportunities there wot?

I see a plan appear before my very eyes. It involves compartmentalization, and l'il Hill has got the humanitarian branch covered. Takes tin cup to Davos etc., pitches insider info..profit beyond wildest dreams. Her Cup runneth over..

Hedgers represent branch #2, armed with proceeds of multiple QE's, turn the entire joint into a profit making machine. Human capital problems? Lotsa migrants out there for the grunt jobs and Russia has kindly reduced the indigenous Nazi population whose best before date has long since expired.

3rd branch of the Oyganization would be the Muscle, as in NATO and Mighty GI Joe from the Land of the Free :) Thus creating a Fortress around the latest playground for the movers and shakers, the louts with the clout and even the carpet baggers too!

Maybe I've just watched too many movies, or am suffering from war porn overload. But hey, it's not impossible that there's a plan what goes "sumping like dis" as the guy on the military channel says..I know I know, ingrish isn't his first language.

Posted by: bubbles | Sep 22 2023 19:30 utc | 36

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 22 2023 18:36 utc | 17

Surely, ‘egg carrier with bonus hole-focused’ is the correct terminology, though given it changes regularly it’s hard to keep up.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 22 2023 19:32 utc | 37

B - 25

Come on, Forbes' numbers aren't fantasies. Those are Ukrainian numbers, they're quite realistic. One just has to understand that Ukrainian military merely changes the country tag on their deads: what they pass ass "Russian" casualties are a pretty close assessment of genuine Ukrainian casualties.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Sep 22 2023 19:34 utc | 38

I'm not a pacifist - I can certainly see the need for a country to defend itself (I sure with the United States would abasing that third world invasion. Why do we even have an army?), but this sort of thing certainly sickens me. All of this could have been avoided if Zelensky had just told Putin "OK fine, we'll be neutral, we won't join NATO, now go away and leave us alone. Oh, but continue subsidizing our energy bills." And the Ukrainians could have gone about their lives. Now Ukraine is being destroyed and for what? To at vast sacrifice and cost get less than they could have gotten for free?

Smedley Butler was right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Is_a_Racket

But still, one notes just how utterly rapacious and amoral the Western elites are. At the end, they can just let the older and disabled Ukrainians starve, and import massive numbers of Pakistanis etc. to work the fields and mines for cheap, and there will still be profit for the people who count.

Posted by: TG | Sep 22 2023 19:36 utc | 39

@English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:13 utc | 7
Thank you for putting it out there so well.
I have been inclined to type similar words here, in the past, on several occasions, only to let it pass as something perhaps too obvious.

Your questions definitely deserve a good round of analyses and comments. I have a few of my own but would love to hear what others have to say.
English Outsider - Care to start things off and give it a go?

Posted by: Spinworthy | Sep 22 2023 19:43 utc | 40

English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:17 utc | 9--

Many thanks for your contributions to this thread. I recall reading that interview at the time and howled with laughter at the massive amount of ignorance it displayed. I'd just finished Diesen's second essay dealing with Europe's geoeconomic dependency on Russia and knew that not only would sanctions fail but they were mostly an attack on the EU as Hudson was very quick to point out. That gross delusion was held on both sides of the Atlantic by the Neoliberalcons, and thus there was no Plan B. You asked why the conflict continues; the answer is the neoliberal parasites continue to grow fat from it along with their MIC allies. Note that no expansion of ammo/arms production facilities has occurred because that would impact profits, share price and dividends. US MIC corps booked all the new orders as revenues and were content to let their backorder list grow even longer. That's one of the major reasons why the Outlaw US Empire and NATO are completely unprepared to fight a major war. And as I noted, the Empire is essentially bankrupt. The odd thing is the financial numbers proving that are public, but it seems the public doesn't know where to find such vital stats, and Congress looks away not making any attempt to change the situation.

As for Russia's focus on Ukraine, today's Security Council meeting didn't provide much info:

"Today let's talk about the situation related to the development of relations with our closest neighbors, partners. We have a lot of work to do, there are a lot of things to do here. components: economy, issues of humanitarian cooperation, security in the region."

The word "partners" tells me the focus was on Armenia/Azerbaijan and the CSTO realm, which is where the Outlaw US Empire is now trying to make trouble. There're also developments in Syria that were also probably discussed. Until the Ukies go over to the defensive, IMO Russia will continue to destroy all those attempting to breech the defensive lines, destroy the drones launched against it, and pummel vital infrastructure as with the recent attacks on electricity transmission facilities that remain functioning. There are still many targets of a military nature within Ukraine.

The big question regarding Zelensky and his fanatics is their obsession with doing as much damage to Russia and Russians as possible, which means they will continue to sacrifice all Ukrainians just as Hitler sacrificed as many Germans as he could to stave off certain defeat.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 22 2023 19:43 utc | 41

killed in action
Posted by: Soothsayer | Sep 22 2023 18:16 utc | 8

since WWII. I gather that you've come across The Forms Printed "leak."

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 22 2023 19:47 utc | 42

The German Left - even prewar-hardcore pacificst - are surprisingly happy with it: Because white people kill white people in this war. It's a win/win situation for them.

Posted by: Phil | Sep 22 2023 19:43 utc | 41

Anyone cheering imperialist war is not left. They are a fraud sponsored by the RC of Europe and the US. It just aids them to refer to them that way. They are hard right war mongers and extreme capitalists with a reverse racial gender hierarchy.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 22 2023 19:52 utc | 43

Posted by: TG | Sep 22 2023 19:36 utc | 39

Why the fixation on Western elites, as though the moral degeneracy is exclusively the province of one society. It seems to me, that any group of humans who strive to elevate themselves to the ranks of the ‘elite’ are prone to the same rapaciousness and ruthlessness.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 22 2023 19:55 utc | 44

I did wonder about the cell phone numbers of abandoned Ukr. SIMS cards ( a million?). Do Ukr. cell phones work across most of the world, especially the EU? I was looking for a reason why they were abandoned other than people being dead.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 22 2023 20:00 utc | 45

@ English Outsider

That leads to the central question of this war. Why were our proxies encouraged for so long to engage in and continue with, and at such cost in territory and lives, a conflict it was self-evident they could not win?

And why, even at this late stage in their defeat, are they still driven on in this conflict by the West?

English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:17 utc | 9--

Many thanks for your contributions to this thread. I recall reading that interview at the time and howled with laughter at the massive amount of ignorance it displayed. I'd just finished Diesen's second essay dealing with Europe's geoeconomic dependency on Russia and knew that not only would sanctions fail but they were mostly an attack on the EU as Hudson was very quick to point out. That gross delusion was held on both sides of the Atlantic by the Neoliberalcons, and thus there was no Plan B. You asked why the conflict continues; the answer is the neoliberal parasites continue to grow fat from it along with their MIC allies.

Karlof1's answer demonstrates an anomaly you wondered aloud about? On the one hand, the sanctions regime and military campaigns had a low probability of success; on the other hand, 'the neoliberal parasites continue to grow fat from it along with their MIC allies'.

First off: perhaps more should consider that all jingoistic rhetoric about democracy, freedom and tyranny notwithstanding, profits drive this mess as much as anything else.

The international oligarch class is doing just fine. First with covid; then with this SMO. Oligarchs on all sides, in the West, Ukraine, Russia and China.

Second, it seems to me that quite possibly one of the intended outcomes of the SMO is an emptying out of much of Ukraine. The rebuilding, if it ever happens, will create a new situation for a new population or polity. Ukraine has been a troubled spot for many centuries, a hotbed of conflicted ethnic and regional cross currents. I have thought since the first day of this SMO that some sort of deal has been done and still suspect that to be the case.

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 22 2023 20:03 utc | 46

@Soothsayer | Sep 22 2023 18:16 utc | 8

KIA: 372,093
WIA: 508,474
Total Casualties: 880,567

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 22 2023 20:07 utc | 47

English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:17 utc | 9

Thank you for your comment. I have translated it into German and published it on my blog.

Posted by: Ulrike | Sep 22 2023 20:13 utc | 48

I keep wanting the aliens to stop by and provide a major hubris check for our species.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 22 2023 19:21 utc | 31

Been there, done that, never coming back.

Posted by: AnAlien | Sep 22 2023 20:14 utc | 49

I fund this point by Von Der Leyan to be a bit odd:

Speech, Atlantic Council, Yesterday, Addressing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida

Many of your relatives lost their life when the atomic bomb razed Hiroshima to the ground.

Posted by: jared | Sep 22 2023 19:13 utc | 27

As if she needed to remind the Japanese PM of that. 3rd rate actor reading bad lines.

Posted by: bubbles | Sep 22 2023 20:14 utc | 50

Maybe Jews have decided that Israel is untenable in the long run and have the Ukraine in mind as a possible refuge? Depopulation of Ukraine would facilitate such a plan.

Posted by: Lysias | Sep 22 2023 20:16 utc | 51

I have heard that the number of prisoners now in Russian hands is about 18'000. (Far too late to find it again, - several days ago.) But it holds up as rybar were congratulating themselves on "provoking" 800+ surrenders immediately after they posted the "Volga" radio code/wavelength on their site.

As the Ukrainians bombed prisoners held by Russians after Avrostal fell, they will now be wary of giving away too much information.
***

One reason that the Polish may want to stop supplying arms:
Early reports claimed the largest contingent of "mercenaries" with the Ukranians were Polish. Probably soldiers "on leave" or wearing other figleaves. If the same rate of attrition as for Ukrainians is applied, then the Polish will have lost a lot of men. (Some may have simply left, but soldiers on "forward deployment" do not necessarily have the right to leave as they wish to).

So a figure of up to 10'000 Polish mercenaries was mentioned, and even if only 10% were lost KIA, a thousand bodies are difficult to hide for an army that is "not at war", and with an election coming up an unwanted complication.

Poland may need to back off temporarily, so no troops, no arms.

(I doubt that they lost 70-80% of men as the Ukrainians have, as earlier (in january?) a large section shot up the Azov backshooters first, when they tried to do a tactical retreat and were stopped.)
***

Zelenski visibly did not get what he wanted at the UN, BUT the Taurus missiles ("Oh, no, we are not going to give them to Ukraine"......said Baerback before her latest 360° pirouette) ARE going to be given to Ukraine. 45 now and a further 50 later on. Even less reason to believe German ministers.
***

The Americans are definitely coordinating the missile launches on Crimea, and the UK must be the ones inserting instructions into the Storm shadows, as this has to be done while on the ground. It is also probably they are doing the naval drone bit. Obviously they do not want to be accused of having "boots on the ground" so by using the US forces as examples, they are probably all wearing skirts and high heeled shoes. otherwise they could be said to be participating in WWIII. ( Wonder Woke threebe?)
***

Last point, the NATO-UKE are building up mine clearing forces and other mechanical means of advancing past the first Suvrokin line near Rabotino, so expect more last minute action before "rain stops play"

Posted by: Stonebird | Sep 22 2023 20:16 utc | 52

It is my sincere hope that each country that aided Ukraine have their entire political apparatus charged with crimes against humanity. They then spend the rest of their lives wandering the earth at our mercies or not.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Sep 22 2023 20:28 utc | 53

Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:09 utc | 6

Who is "we"? Do you identify with the Anglo-American oligarchs and the politicos serving their interests?

If your response is "hell no", then the answer to your question is that the criminal treatment of the proxies isn't a concern as long as it serves the interests of the Anglo-American empire. Aghans, South Vietnamese, Iraqis and other Arabs, various Africans, Latin Americans you name it, although the Ukrainians top the cake.

Posted by: Constantine | Sep 22 2023 20:28 utc | 54

Posted by: Soothsayer | Sep 22 2023 18:16 utc | 8

The Vlasovite Navalnist or the paid western mole serving the same narrative continues to infest the blog. An indication that MoA is on the right track, I guess.

Posted by: Constantine | Sep 22 2023 20:33 utc | 55

"..Anyone cheering imperialist war is not left. They are a fraud sponsored by the RC of Europe and the US. It just aids them to refer to them that way. They are hard right war mongers and extreme capitalists with a reverse racial gender hierarchy." Ahenobarbus@44

To which I would add, what is also true in Canada and elsewhere, that these spokesmen for the 'left' are invariably careerist mediocrities looking for promotion.
Most of them believe in nothing except their own comfort- they are a collective cross that the working class have had to bear since the franchise opened up opportunities for sellouts and traitors.

Posted by: bevin | Sep 22 2023 20:33 utc | 56

Homicidal maniacs try to act surprised.

Biden tells Zelensk* that U.S. will send Ukraine ATACMS long-range missiles, 22 Sep

Some in Washington had resisted supplying the weapons system, known as “attack-ems,” out of fear that it would widen the war with Russia.
President Joe Biden has told his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that the United States will provide a small number of long-range missiles to aid the war with Russia, three U.S. officials and a congressional official familiar with the discussions told NBC News on Friday. The officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly, did not say when the missiles would be delivered or when a public announcement would be made.
[...]
The congressional official said there was still a debate about the type of missile that would be sent and how many would be delivered to Ukraine. They added that countries in Eastern Europe had already given Ukraine large portions of their weapons stockpiles.
[...]
The White House initially withheld approval for requests for Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Howitzer artillery pieces, anti-ship missiles and HIMARS systems, but later gave the green light to them being shipped.

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 22 2023 20:38 utc | 57

the Russians would have ran out of troops if they lost 500 000 people. Isn’t 500 000 the high end of total troops committed so far?
Most of the Russian troops are mobilized Ukies anyway so I doubt anyone runs out soon.

The EU and the US dumped plenty of money on Ukraine today they are not walking away and they are far from done. People are speculating pressure on Ukraine to negotiate but I have seen nothing to suggest that. I have seen many speeches how Russia must be defeated.
The US and NATO are not loosing they still have all their troops all their planes and thousands of tanks. Africa and the Middle East have not been settled yet so Russia will be tying up the west for a long time yet

Cutting Turkey out of the new trade route was a grave mistake by the west, if they lose turkey they lose the power balance and Turkey seems pissed about it

Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 22 2023 20:39 utc | 58

11 million Remaining in Kiev controled Territory

N.B. The rippling impacts of war wounded and deaths last into the 3rd and 4th generations. It’s staggering when one understands how deeply damaging war is.
Posted by: Exile | Sep 22 2023 17:56 utc | 1

Your numbers are pretty much in accord with my previous estimates....

I emphasize... nearly 10.4 million pensioners....

The Ukies are not able to meet mobilization quotas... for the simple reason.... mobilizable male resource is gone...
SO....

Now mobilizing 16-18 year olds and pensioners... Famous case of 71 year old trainee in Germany learning to drive a tank...

Meanwhile Russia continues to kill 1000-2000 / day...

When the Ukie army collapses... probably suddenly.... formations enmasse walking home...

Russia for it's part... has opened crisis lines to support those wishing to surrender...

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 22 2023 20:42 utc | 59

@Soothsayer | Sep 22 2023 18:16 utc | 8
KIA: 372,093
WIA: 508,474
Total Casualties: 880,567

SIM card data ..... 1.2 million cards destroyed == 1 million KIA and/or WIA

This figure grows by ~ 7-15 thousand / week...

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 22 2023 20:49 utc | 60

The German Left - even prewar-hardcore pacificst - are surprisingly happy with it: Because white people kill white people in this war. It's a win/win situation for them.

Posted by: Phil | Sep 22 2023 19:43 utc | 41

Well, the chief ideologues of what could pass as anti-white sentiment would be the German rightists. I mean, the German nationalists were top notch racists towards so many pale-skinned Europeans in the east and south of the continent. Moreover, the war in Ukraine was put on track by Merkel, a solid right-winger. And her party continues to support the war effort against Russia.

One could further mention Adrian Zenz, a western supremacist right-winger and a fascist heretic who asserts that the goal of Jesus was to promote free-market capitalism and how to become filthy rich. That would be the same globalist puke that spearheaded the propaganda campaign against China abou Xinjiang. And I don't recall cultural liberals and ultra-progs denouncing his claims on account of his rightist convictions.

In short, this "leftist anti-white stance" is utter horsecrap. What matters is the interests of the oligarchy and the neoliberal right is on top of any leftist frauds.

Plus, one could make some questions about the moral standing of any who express indignation about "whites killing other whites", but not when "non-whites" are involved.

Posted by: Constantine | Sep 22 2023 20:49 utc | 61

Bankrupt destroyed Ukraine will be left as the big stone at the neck of the EU so that it remain sunk deep under water for the decades to come, making it no match for the US..

Pharmacists are running from Ukraine to Europe? No worries, there will come US Pharma Giant retailers ( which moreover will help in "vaccinating Europe" and thus decimating remaining public health systems...and European helathy population with "their formulas"... ) as they have come the US Big Agrobusinees, US Big Gas, plus black transplantologists, human traders, drug traders, and every scamer in the world...to manage EU squezed taxpayers money....

Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Sep 22 2023 20:54 utc | 62

Simon | Sep 22 2023 19:26 utc | 34
bigger than Vietnam was for the USA
Yep.
Vietnam was never existential for the U$. And it was fought thousands of kms from the U$.
What a nonsense [and a glaring example of U$-centric thinking] to try to compare U$-Vietnam with what absolutely is an existential war for Russia, fought on historical Russian territory, against USNATO, and a full cohort of all U$ controlled vassals.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 22 2023 20:56 utc | 63

As for what will happen to Ukraine if one remains as a political entity when this is over, look at Libya and Afghanistan for the most likely pictures. The Syrian outcome is possible as is what became of Yugoslavia. When we go back to December 2021 and look at what was on offer by Russia then and then add the SMO's goals, I stand by my original assessment that Ukraine will vanish from the pages of time as a political entity. Given how Russia has behaved regarding self-determination, I assume Russia will allow those remaining in what was Ukraine to choose from a limited number of choices, one of which will be the city-statelet of Kiev, whose possible borders are unknown currently. That's the only outcome I see from the requirements of No NATO, No Nazis, and no standing military or arms manufacturing capabilities, just basic security forces with external security being guaranteed by Russia and Belarus.

As for the bigger issue of NATO on Russia's borders, that's a whole different yet related issue that will also need to be solved. IMO, Russia will absorb all the remaining Great Russian lands unless the people there vote otherwise. As for what will follow in relations with Europe, one of the little noted facts currently is the massive increase in Russian LNG exports to Europe, which confirms geoeconomic dependency on Russia continues despite the vaunted sanctions that would defeat Russia without a shot fired.

Reconstruction and reintegration in the "new" Russian regions will follow the pattern established in Donbass and all Russia will lend a shoulder. Of course, those regions where people vote to return to their original nation will assume those nations will help them rebuild. However, it's entirely possible the newly adopted nation will refuse to accept the new lands, people and expense, and that will create further problems. As such, we shall await the passage of time and run of events.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 22 2023 20:59 utc | 64

Only Russia makes the major components of the Ukraine electrical system. By simply destroying 750KV el. network, Russia can, without killing any civilians force massive movement of Ukrainians in direction of EU and collapse of Ukrainian state.
But Putin does not want or cannot do that.

Posted by: simplex | Sep 22 2023 21:02 utc | 65

From Gerroman Telegram Channel....
https://t.me/geromanat/10497
GO TO VOLGA AND SAVE YOUR LIFE: REAL RESULTS

This is a real, real, tangible result. Videos of members of Ukrainian formations surrendering in groups appear every day. Hurray, comrades!

The losses mount......

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 22 2023 21:03 utc | 66

RT: US to supply Ukraine with ATACMS missiles – media
The long-range munitions, repeatedly demanded by Kiev, will reportedly come with controversial cluster warheads

Quite clear. They are not afraid of Russia any more. The escalation continues...

Posted by: simplex | Sep 22 2023 21:06 utc | 67

@ English Outsider et al.

Sanctions game tears apart normal business and cultural relations between nations. Only the few and chosen can to do business with Russia – and it's lucrative business. Estonian Prime Minister and her husband come to mind, US of course, too.

Still, it is not without danger for Russia – the few and selected on her side can perhaps easily turn coat at later day. At this point, one is reminded of the fate of the USSR.

Posted by: js | Sep 22 2023 21:15 utc | 68

Why don't the Dems send all the migrants from the southern border to Kiev? That would help Kiev and help their cities.

Posted by: oracle | Sep 22 2023 21:19 utc | 69

B, by all metrics your numbers are right (although I’d consider the total population almost 50% higher but with no potencial for more than 4 million draftees 60% of the pre-war potential of 7 million)

Kia should be 500.000 by month end (and 25.000 amputees and 475.000 further unrecoverable hounded) from more than 2.000.000 mobilized.

But mobilizing Kiev and other friendlies will be a problem for Z… they might think a regime change is in order, specially if under strength to face a new Russian attack

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 22 2023 21:19 utc | 70

Only Russia makes the major components of the Ukraine electrical system. By simply destroying 750KV el. network, Russia can, without killing any civilians force massive movement of Ukrainians in direction of EU and collapse of Ukrainian state.
But Putin does not want or cannot do that.

Posted by: simplex | Sep 22 2023 21:02 utc | 66

The Russians are smarter than that, they have destroyed a large portion of the Ukies ability to produce power but left enough of the the grid intact for the power to run everywhere. The problem for the west is that the power has to run from the EU to Ukraine to keep the lights on when Russia hits any random substation or if everyone wants power.
Sneaky Sneaky
They left the power alone long enough for the neighbors to hook up and sign contracts for buying Ukraine’s power

Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 22 2023 21:19 utc | 71

Why, then, are we even now shovelling thousands upon thousands of unfortunate Ukrainians into the killing fields?

Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:17 utc | 9

To do otherwise at this point would be an admission of defeat is the simple answer. And that is not acceptable, worse even than "Peace with Honor"

Which of course, wasn't Honorable, like many things related to politics

Posted by: bubbles | Sep 22 2023 21:22 utc | 72

@Petri Krohn | Sep 22 2023 18:19 utc | 10

The Tochka massacre in Kramatorsk may have been intentional.

The spent casing had "for the children" written on it so there is no doubt it was intentional.

Posted by: cirsium | Sep 22 2023 21:23 utc | 73

of course escalation continues. And after ATACMS it will be something bigger and with more range, etc.
So Ukraine is going to be bled. By now people live their lives normally in Kiev and Lwow. Russia has enough tools to cause mass destruction in conventional way.
Not sure it will not end in nuclear war in 2024. Russia can be badly damaged by nuclear hits but yanquis have to be sure they can intercept any kind of nukes, because it would be enough that Russia hits New York, Washington, Los Angeles, to inflicts much more wound and yanquis will cry like pigs before slaughter, they are virgin to war on their soil. Russian territory has enough northern empty forestry to get survival spots but USA will be very bad.

Posted by: Timur | Sep 22 2023 21:35 utc | 74

Posted by: Soothsayer | 22 sep 2023 18:16 utc 8

If it doesn't show any source then it is fake 8

Posted by: Neocons | Sep 22 2023 21:49 utc | 75

Well they're white, they got the internet and they ain't muslim so they got that going for them. There's lots of work in the escort business and titty bars. Other than that look to Libya, Syria and Afghanistan to see their future.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Sep 22 2023 21:53 utc | 76

" I have heard that the number of prisoners now in Russian hands is about 18'000. (Far too late to find it again, - several days ago.) "

Were these Red Cross numbers because I dont recall hearing about any of the following ?

" Under the Third Geneva Convention, prisoners of war (POW) must be:

Treated humanely with respect for their persons and their honor

Able to inform their next of kin and the International Committee of the Red Cross of their capture

Allowed to communicate regularly with relatives and receive packages

Given adequate food, clothing, housing, and medical attention

Paid for work done and not forced to do work that is dangerous, unhealthy, or degrading

Released quickly after conflicts end

Not compelled to give any information except for name, age, rank, and service number

In addition, if wounded or sick on the battlefield, the prisoner will receive help from the International Committee of the Red Cross. "

Posted by: Shocked | Sep 22 2023 21:58 utc | 77

1. Destroy Russia
2. Until the last Ukrainian
3. As long as it takes

These are the stated objectives. It has been said over and over and over. It’s not a bluff or a joke it is their plan.
Still today they say Russia must lose.
Ukraine is fucked, Russia is stuck in a nightmare and the west is desperate to hold on to what it’s got.

Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 22 2023 21:58 utc | 78

When the business in "killing ruskies" there are no pacifist political party in Germany, never have been and never will be, some things never change in 1.000 years (from the Baltic Crusades and the Teutonic Order)

Posted by: Dave | Sep 22 2023 21:58 utc | 79

Excellent piece of work B. It puts everything in perspective, especially the comment that this is a cheap war for the US.
This is a multi generational crisis for Ukraine and ultimately Europe. Nothing has been learnt from history on the continent of Europe.
Peace and prosperity from Siberia to Portugal was not very long ago a slight possibility.
Once again the city of London has destroyed the lives of millions and created long lasting hatred between countries on the continent.

Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Sep 22 2023 19:00 utc | 22

A CHEAP WAR FOR THE U.S. ??
From Wolf Richter, "the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF [TLT], which focuses on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more, fell 2.6% today and has plunged by 47% (!!!!!!) from the peak in August 2020. If long-term interest rates continue to rise, the price will continue to fall.
Spending money you do not have, borrowing to fill the increasing gap between reckless desires and ability to pay has come home to roost. Russia's greatest asset, and Russia has many, is de facto the U.S. continuing to live in Disneyland.
There are $ Trillions of U.S. paper Promises that have the 47% discounts. No "mark to market (current value)" Just hold for 20 or 30 years and pretend you will be made whole before you are dead.
Sorry. The U.S. cannot afford the Ukraine War, and soon the U.S will not be able to afford the interest on her debt. Alternatively, they could fire Powell, put the Printing Press in high gear, and do a Weimar Republic.

Posted by: kupkee | Sep 22 2023 22:02 utc | 80

RE: “Quite clear. They are not afraid of Russia any more. The escalation continues...”

Posted by: simplex | Sep 22 2023 21:06 utc | 68

“anymore”?? They never were. It’s why they took this path to begin with. They’re not capable of “fear”. And “consequences” are always someone else’s to pay. It doesn’t occur to them and they don’t care if the world burns. In their minds, they’re sipping wine & texting, it’s just another day. Someone else is dying.. someone else’s building is collapsing, someone else is being bombed.
What do they have to fear?

For irrational minds, the rational makes no sense to them.

All that Russia has to decide, is when does it get dangerous enough, that he must risk a few million of Russian lives to put this rabid dog down for good and save the rest of his Country? I’m guessing every sub and every available ally is on standby.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 22 2023 22:05 utc | 81

A thought From “Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 22 2023 20:59 utc | 65 “

Well that is the crux of the matter with regards to Europe. With the US cannibalising and exploiting its vassals , US-associated LNG has increased in Europe. Russian LNG sales to Europe are also increasing. We are also told that the US wants a Cold War II scenario with two different trading blocks. Ie a destruction of Globalism ,now that the US does not profit from it much in relative terms to China etc.

So where will the EU go? I can’t see the US allowing Russian LNG exports to the EU in the long term as it will make the EU reliant on Russian gas again. What can/will the US do?

Posted by: Wondrous | Sep 22 2023 22:05 utc | 82

I can't help but think that if the Ukies hadn't been such assholes and abused and murdered their Russian, Hungarian, and Roma speaking neighbors, we wouldn't be here. I can't help but think that if the Ukies hadn't been such consummate greedy idiots with the notion that they could suck up to the EU and they'd be able to get plenty of money for nothin' and the chicks are free, we wouldn't be here. Somebody needs to tell the z-man that when you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is to stop digging. Sadly, it seems that Ukies in general and the Z-man in specific aren't very bright. Which is sad.

Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Sep 22 2023 22:13 utc | 83

Posted by: Milites | Sep 22 2023 19:25 utc

The enormous numbers of casualties in The Great Patriotic War led , of course, to ingenious developments such as the

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilizarov_apparatus

which was subsequently expanded to deal with many natural conditions and injuries, to the utter amazement of Western "specialists" when they became aware of it...

Needs must, aka

Necessity truly is the Mother of Invention,

Posted by: Cortes | Sep 22 2023 22:13 utc | 84

1. Destroy Russia
2. Until the last Ukrainian
3. As long as it takes

Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 22 2023 21:58 utc | 79

4. The wealthy control the political system

“Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America nor, for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy"

― Hermann Göring

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/8381-naturally-the-common-people-don-t-want-war-neither-in-russia

Posted by: bubbles | Sep 22 2023 22:16 utc | 85

Were these Red Cross numbers because I dont recall hearing about any of the following ?

Shocked...

My dear Shocked.... are you aware.... that the Ukies castrate Russian POWs....

That the Ukies shoot wounded Russian POWs

That the Ukies beat Russian POWs to death....

That the Ukies call the loved ones of Russian POWs for the purpose of extorting $$ from them...

That the ICRC cares not one whit for Russian POWs...

Have your breasts become bruised from beating it over the mis treatment of Russian POWs???

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 22 2023 22:17 utc | 86

My basic calc at the start of the war was 35million Ukrainians vs 140million Russians. No way Ukraine could win if Russia was serious. All the weapons sent to the proxy could never win the war. Nothing but death and injuries. Now the corrupt Clintons and Pritzker are going takes $billions sent to U to "rebuild". The US corruption never ends.

Posted by: Cyclingnut | Sep 22 2023 22:19 utc | 87

@ English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:17 utc | 9 and @7

thanks eo! great posts.. i always look for your input.. thanks..

Posted by: james | Sep 22 2023 22:24 utc | 88

Now there is another way of viewing the Prigozhin affair.

During April of 2023, Prigozhin, and co-conspirators in the Russian Ministry of Defense, organized what appeared to be a serious dispute between them, although, as one might expect, it was never exactly clear what this dispute was about. This sowing of discord was to provide a plausible excuse to completely withdraw the Wagner group from Bakhmut (the town the Russians call Artyomovsk) as the Ukrainians were losing badly to the Wagner fighters.

On April 30 Prigozhin (the Wagner spokesperson, often incorrectly called the head of the group) accused the country's military leaders of "high treason" for not providing his group with ammunition, and threatened to withdraw Wagner from Bakhmut if it didn't receive more ammunition.

On May 5 Prigozhin stated that Wagner would pull out of Bakhmut on May 10. He stated this even though he had recently predicted that the (long delayed) Ukrainian counter-offensive would begin by 15 May. Thus, it is was somewhat likely, according to him, that the Ukrainian counter-offensive would occur after Wagner had been withdrawn, or as Wagner was being withdrawn. A Russian Patriot could hardly have missed that this might occur, and would not have planned a May 10 pullout. Yet Prigozhin does not even notice the problem. It is evidently not a concern of his.

In the evening of the next day the Ministry of Defense promised that the Wagner group would get all the arms they needed. Not having a sufficient excuse to pull Wagner fighters out, they stay, and fight, until May 20, when Wagner declared victory in Bakhmut. However, what was victory in Bakhmut? Victory in Bakhmut was simply the pushing of the Ukrainian army out of the contiguous suburbs of Bakhmut into the area west and south-west of the city. So, victory in Bakhmut, left intact most of the army that had been in Bakhmut, only now it was positioned west and south-west of the city, where much of it remains to this day. So even though we are told that the fight in Bakhmut is over, it actually still goes on.

On May 25 Wagner began their withdrawal from Bakhmut, and the transfer of positions to the Russian army. This was completed by June 1. So, the traitor Prigozhin had been able to arrange for Wagner fighters to be completely withdrawn and replaced by supposedly less capable forces. Not only that, but the Wagner forces left no fortified lines. These had to be cobbled together by the replacement forces and held against the entire Ukrainian army that had withdrawn from Bakhmut, and was now west, and south-west, of the city. This they were able to do. See this short video by Alexander Mercouris. Wagner's withdrawal let the pressure off the remaining Ukrainian forces giving them time to stabilize their defenses and plan future offenses. This is a similar strategy to that used by the traitor Surovikin at Kherson, and east of Kharkov. In one case you win the battle for the enemy by ordering your own troops to withdraw. In the other, you have the enemy escape defeat, by ordering your own troops to withdraw.

Posted by: darling | Sep 22 2023 22:31 utc | 89

I pass my comment to Mick Wallace Irish MEP

How do you sleep at night??! - MEP Mick Wallace- speech from 19 Sep 2023

16 mins ... worth it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QChtzNTaO3o&t=5s

Posted by: Don Firineach | Sep 22 2023 22:41 utc | 90

james | Sep 22 2023 18:23 utc | 12 "man... this is so so sad............. all for usa imperialism... what a complete waste and disaster.."

james, I got an insight into this when my sister came to visit for a short time. In most things she is a completely rational person but on geo-politics she is completely irrational - hysterical is more the right term. I will write more about that another time if I can, but the basis is that she makes decisions based on her emotions and has no interest in facts nor history nor the cause of conflict. She told me that herself. She has taken on anglo war propaganda and demonization of target nations and their leaders with a religious conviction. Xi and Putin are utterly evil ect.

Those of us here see those under the influence of the American pied piper being led to their destruction and it occurs time after time in the American/anglo quest for expanded and continued world dominance.

For me, I have watched friends and family all come under the influence of the American pied piper and it is lie watching the little children being led away. Australia's time is nearly here. As per b's last article, this looks to be the turning point in the war against Russia with the failure of the vaunted offensive. Poland turning against Ukraine marks a major turning point. American voices to launch the war against China are getting stronger.That will lead to at the very least the destruction of the Australian economy though that is now being systematically looted by the Americans as as Australians fearfully watch the non existent threat of China.

Racism - the fear of 'those others'. Once analysed it is the fear of the unknown, like a fear of the dark. Humans unlike predators in the natural world do not have good night vision so that is likely part of our pre-programmed character we are born with and for good reason.

Fear of people with a different language or different culture that is not understood is I think the basis for underlying racism and this is what the American propaganda preys on. This also is I think why US/UK have worked with the Ukraine nazi's to create a fictional culture and history which will separate Ukraine from Russia and create racism or at least the atmosphere for racism (the fear of 'those others') to germinate and thrive.

The Russia China joint statement marked the historical changing of and era, this blink of a historical eye in which the anglo world had dominated the globe. Before this is over, many - like the Ukrainians - will be led by the American pied piper to either physical or at best financial destruction. As you say with the Ukrainians - sad - but due to human nature also inevitable.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2023 22:45 utc | 91

" My dear Shocked.... are you aware.... that the Ukies castrate Russian POWs....

That the Ukies shoot wounded Russian POWs

That the Ukies beat Russian POWs to death....

That the Ukies call the loved ones of Russian POWs for the purpose of extorting $$ from them...

That the ICRC cares not one whit for Russian POWs...

Have your breasts become bruised from beating it over the mis treatment of Russian POWs???

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 22 2023 22:17 utc | 87 "

You're being emotional as we all know about the atrocities.

My question is " Where is the international Red Cross " as required by Geneva conventions ? Where are the letters home from the Ukie prisoners ? Where are the Red Cross visits to camps, on both sides ? Why are there video " confessions " from both the Ukie and Russian sides when POW's cant be forced to talk ? So forth and so on.

Posted by: Shocked | Sep 22 2023 22:52 utc | 92

We know (surely?) that the 'Libyanization' of Ukraine was plan B. It suits the USA to have a failed black hole festering in the heart of Europe. So there will be a rebuild—by Russia, after which Ukraine will join the Federation.

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 22 2023 22:55 utc | 93

Posted by: oracle | Sep 22 2023 21:19 utc | 70

Most of the migrants at the moment are from Venezuela. Prior to about last year, very few (and I mean a TINY number of) Venezuelans made the journey. Pray tell, what happened to Venezuela between the years of 2016 and 2020 that might have wrecked their economy in ways that not even Shrub or the neocons in the Obama administration could accomplish in their own wildest dreams? I say send the migrants to Mar-a-Lago and the children of all Trump and Obama administration lackeys to the front lines in Ukraine.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Sep 22 2023 22:56 utc | 94

^^^How could I have forgotten Shrub and Darth Cheney's people too?

Almost all of the migrants from any Central/South American country are fleeing right-wing Democrat and righter-wing Republican policies to crush reforms in their countries, especially of the left-leaning type.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Sep 22 2023 22:58 utc | 95

Killed Ukrainians

https://t.me/xoxol_uk/17345
https://t.me/chub_detection/13769

Captured Ukrainians

https://t.me/xoxol_uk/17367
https://t.me/xoxol_uk/17373

Posted by: Crazy idiot | Sep 22 2023 22:59 utc | 96

English Outsider | Sep 22 2023 18:09 utc | 6

In attacking Russia through Ukraine, the west crossed the Rubicon. Nato defeat in Ukraine will begin the disintegration of Nato which I believe is Russia's main goal. Defeat in Ukraine also destroys the the political futures of the current batch of European bobbling heads 'leaders' in Europe. With defeat in Ukraine, many of these will be replaced by leaderships that will try to mend fences sufficiently with Russia to restore cheap and reliable energy supply. The Americans and British realized this long ago which is why they destroyed nordstream.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2023 23:02 utc | 97

Ukraine is fucked, Russia is stuck in a nightmare and the west is desperate to hold on to what it’s got.

Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 22 2023 21:58 utc | 79

##############

If you call a growing economy, stronger world diplomatic position, and the most advanced ground army a nightmare ...

You don't understand Slavs. Many Russians are elated at how things have gone since the start of the SMO.

Sure, some crybabies complain about a drone strike or three on Moscow, but that's really just the cost of doing business. That business is reshaping the world order away from unipolarity and towards a multi-polar order with Russia as one of the principal architects.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2023 23:04 utc | 98

Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2023 22:45 utc | 92--

Hi Peter! It's good to read your writing again! I know you've talked about your sister before. In this example, you're proving that rational people are still capable of ignorance, and it's ignorance that fuels the fear of the unknown for you're not afraid of something you know. Sure, you might be fearful of certain snakes because you know they're dangerous, or you could fear all snakes because you're ignorant and don't/can't tell the good ones from the dangerous ones. Same goes with spiders. My wife knows that she hates all spiders and has no interest in discovering their differences, yet she's a very rational person.

I just wrote a long answer to a commenter at my substack asking how we can keep the bad actors from gaining power. Again, one of the main factors is ignorance of the citizen's duties which exist but few know because they're never taught. Writing on this the following question was raised in my mind: Is it rational to be ignorant, or is ignorance rational? Can Bliss really be attained by not knowing a great many things? Or can not knowing be deadly?

Tough, those questions. Good to have your words to read to prompt such questions.

My Best Mate!

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 22 2023 23:12 utc | 99

The depletion of the Russian-speaking population of the world continues swimmingly.
Posted by: Soothsayer | Sep 22 2023 18:16 utc | 8

Yeh...you worthless prick Soothsayer. And it was russia that bombed the market killing 16 civilians! Lol. You and your Nafoids are a set delusional bastards who reeally dont deserve the opportunity B gives you to spout your kiev orc propoganda on Moon of Alabama.

But then again, I suppose you give us all a little chuckle knowing how brain dead you and the nafoids are. You appear vto be living in a hollywood movie....all of you!

Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 22 2023 23:13 utc | 100