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September 30, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-227
Comments
The National Interest is mostly certainly not a neo-con mouthpiece, as some have suggested. Perhaps you are confusing it with The National Review, which used to be fairly libertarian under William F. Buckley but now is very neo-conish, never-Trumpian. The National Interest has had some financial difficulties lately and therefore will publish dubious free content that is thrown their way, such as this utter dreck. That said, they have published many thoughtful pieces about Russia, particularly the effect of the war on world oil & gas markets and food supply.
Academic research typically contains many footnotes because it rests squarely on credible sources. That there are only a handful of footnotes, and that most of the are to dubious sources, particularly WikiLeaks, speaks volumes to this paper’s quality (or lack thereof).
In “Syrian and Russian armed forces made no distinction between civilians and insurgents” the link is to a Guardian piece, which is also highly dubious. Worse still, that piece links to a UN press release, which discusses pro-Syrian government forces, not Russian, killing civilians and criticizes them for – wait for it – “the use of cluster munitions.”
Posted by: Sudsie76 | Sep 30 2023 18:55 utc | 101
The National Interest is mostly certainly not a neo-con mouthpiece, as some have suggested. Perhaps you are confusing it with The National Review, which used to be fairly libertarian under William F. Buckley but now is very neo-conish, never-Trumpian. The National Interest has had some financial difficulties lately and therefore will publish dubious free content that is thrown their way, such as this utter dreck. That said, they have published many thoughtful pieces about Russia, particularly the effect of the war on world oil & gas markets and food supply.
Academic research typically contains many footnotes because it rests squarely on credible sources. That there are only a handful of footnotes, and that most of the are to dubious sources, particularly WikiLeaks, speaks volumes to this paper’s quality (or lack thereof).
In “Syrian and Russian armed forces made no distinction between civilians and insurgents” the link is to a Guardian piece, which is also highly dubious. Worse still, that piece links to a UN press release, which discusses pro-Syrian government forces, not Russian, killing civilians and criticizes them for – wait for it – “the use of cluster munitions.”
Posted by: Sudsie76 | Sep 30 2023 18:55 utc | 102
Time-fuzed he-frag tank rounds with optional blast shape.
https://t.me/s/milinfolive
Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces Oleg Salyukov said on the pages of “Red Star” that new “Telnik” shells were used in T-90M tanks.
Tank fragmentation-beam shell 3OF82 “Telnik” is an ammunition with ready-made striking elements, which is able to explode at the necessary point when flying to the target, while you can choose the direction of flight of the GGE – forward with a cone or a circular field.
Such shells allow you to very effectively hit infantry entrenched or in the fields, which is extremely problematic to get by a direct hit of a “classic” tank shell.
Similar ammunition with remote detonation has long been necessary for our IFVs and ZRPC in 30 mm calibers, both for similar tasks of defeating sheltered and sheltered infantry, and for a more effective fight against UAVs.
Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 30 2023 18:57 utc | 103
Time-fuzed he-frag tank rounds with optional blast shape.
https://t.me/s/milinfolive
Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces Oleg Salyukov said on the pages of “Red Star” that new “Telnik” shells were used in T-90M tanks.
Tank fragmentation-beam shell 3OF82 “Telnik” is an ammunition with ready-made striking elements, which is able to explode at the necessary point when flying to the target, while you can choose the direction of flight of the GGE – forward with a cone or a circular field.
Such shells allow you to very effectively hit infantry entrenched or in the fields, which is extremely problematic to get by a direct hit of a “classic” tank shell.
Similar ammunition with remote detonation has long been necessary for our IFVs and ZRPC in 30 mm calibers, both for similar tasks of defeating sheltered and sheltered infantry, and for a more effective fight against UAVs.
Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 30 2023 18:57 utc | 104
@echelon | Sep 30 2023 17:02 utc | 26
I think that Dmitri Medvedev’s Telegram comment when some Western legacy media outlets launched this story says it all
“blatant low-rating B movie stuff. Six hardened saboteurs, with a lady among them, a femme fatale (how can there be a movie without one?) went out on a yacht into the stormy Baltic Sea. They took half a ton of explosives on board and performed a beautiful dive. And then they blew up two huge pipes at the bottom, before disappearing into the sunset. Unspotted by anybody. In the sea, full of NATO ships and international surveillance systems. They also returned the yacht to the owner, being brutal, but also law-abiding.”
Posted by: cirsium | Sep 30 2023 18:58 utc | 105
@echelon | Sep 30 2023 17:02 utc | 26
I think that Dmitri Medvedev’s Telegram comment when some Western legacy media outlets launched this story says it all
“blatant low-rating B movie stuff. Six hardened saboteurs, with a lady among them, a femme fatale (how can there be a movie without one?) went out on a yacht into the stormy Baltic Sea. They took half a ton of explosives on board and performed a beautiful dive. And then they blew up two huge pipes at the bottom, before disappearing into the sunset. Unspotted by anybody. In the sea, full of NATO ships and international surveillance systems. They also returned the yacht to the owner, being brutal, but also law-abiding.”
Posted by: cirsium | Sep 30 2023 18:58 utc | 106
There’s an interesting article in Foreign Affairs this weekend by Robert Gates former imperialist defense secretary.
It’s interesting. He openly acknowledges imperialism is at a breaking point then offers some solutions: basically double down on everything military.
“Congress needs to act more quickly and efficiently when it comes to approving the defense budget.”
And work with more Nazis abroad while pretending to be virtuous:
“The United States must always advocate for democracy and human rights everywhere, but that commitment must not blind Washington to the reality that U.S. national interests sometimes require it to work with repressive, unrepresentative governments.”
As to the political crisis in the US which he also acknowledges, and the lack of support for WW3 in the US, he says this:
“It is not just one Oval Office address or speech on the floor of Congress that is needed. Rather, a drumbeat of repetition is required for the message to sink in. Beyond regularly communicating to the American people directly, and not through spokespersons, the president needs to spend time over drinks and dinners and in small meetings with members of Congress and the media making the case for the United States’ leadership role. Then, given the fragmented nature of modern-day communications, members of Congress need to carry the message to their constituents across the country.”
I’m wondering how much more of a repetitive drum best for WW3 they can manage? What would propaganda more intense than the last two years look like?
Makes me think of O’Brien and Winston discussing mathematics at the end of 1984.
I’m tempted to post the whole article, but it’s long.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 30 2023 19:00 utc | 107
There’s an interesting article in Foreign Affairs this weekend by Robert Gates former imperialist defense secretary.
It’s interesting. He openly acknowledges imperialism is at a breaking point then offers some solutions: basically double down on everything military.
“Congress needs to act more quickly and efficiently when it comes to approving the defense budget.”
And work with more Nazis abroad while pretending to be virtuous:
“The United States must always advocate for democracy and human rights everywhere, but that commitment must not blind Washington to the reality that U.S. national interests sometimes require it to work with repressive, unrepresentative governments.”
As to the political crisis in the US which he also acknowledges, and the lack of support for WW3 in the US, he says this:
“It is not just one Oval Office address or speech on the floor of Congress that is needed. Rather, a drumbeat of repetition is required for the message to sink in. Beyond regularly communicating to the American people directly, and not through spokespersons, the president needs to spend time over drinks and dinners and in small meetings with members of Congress and the media making the case for the United States’ leadership role. Then, given the fragmented nature of modern-day communications, members of Congress need to carry the message to their constituents across the country.”
I’m wondering how much more of a repetitive drum best for WW3 they can manage? What would propaganda more intense than the last two years look like?
Makes me think of O’Brien and Winston discussing mathematics at the end of 1984.
I’m tempted to post the whole article, but it’s long.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 30 2023 19:00 utc | 108
Does anybody have a view about Eliason’s credibility? I appreciate that many have expressed doubts about Hersh.
Posted by: echelon | Sep 30 2023 17:02 utc | 26
—————————————————–
Yes, I have a view: Eliason has no credibility. He is pushing the US/NATO narrative that they came up with after Hersh published his version based on his years of connections with the National Security State.
If you are going to buy the US/NATO narrative about the Nord Stream bombing, then you might as well swallow the whole package: Russia is evil and wants to take over all Europe and the Baltic States, then who knows what else: America?
Don’t listen to this bullshit. Both Biden, Nuland, Blinken, Sullivan, and Olaf, have all admitted that there were plans to do it, Olaf knew about it because Biden said they would do right in front of him, and it was done.
Only a fool or a lying Troll would push another narrative. And no echelon, I am not calling you a fool or a lying troll, you asked a fair question. All I am just saying is we know who done it; because they told; warned us; jumped up and down with joy when it happened; and you could see the f**king smirk on everyone’s face when they talked about it. And finally, Hersh is a damn good prize-winning journalist, and who the f**k is Eliason.
Posted by: Ed | Sep 30 2023 19:03 utc | 109
Does anybody have a view about Eliason’s credibility? I appreciate that many have expressed doubts about Hersh.
Posted by: echelon | Sep 30 2023 17:02 utc | 26
—————————————————–
Yes, I have a view: Eliason has no credibility. He is pushing the US/NATO narrative that they came up with after Hersh published his version based on his years of connections with the National Security State.
If you are going to buy the US/NATO narrative about the Nord Stream bombing, then you might as well swallow the whole package: Russia is evil and wants to take over all Europe and the Baltic States, then who knows what else: America?
Don’t listen to this bullshit. Both Biden, Nuland, Blinken, Sullivan, and Olaf, have all admitted that there were plans to do it, Olaf knew about it because Biden said they would do right in front of him, and it was done.
Only a fool or a lying Troll would push another narrative. And no echelon, I am not calling you a fool or a lying troll, you asked a fair question. All I am just saying is we know who done it; because they told; warned us; jumped up and down with joy when it happened; and you could see the f**king smirk on everyone’s face when they talked about it. And finally, Hersh is a damn good prize-winning journalist, and who the f**k is Eliason.
Posted by: Ed | Sep 30 2023 19:03 utc | 110
Re: “you implement the Great Reset you have, not the Great Reset you might want or wish to have at a later time.”
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 30 2023 18:18 utc | 43
Agreed, the sand ran out.
The COVID test run would have worked as a great catalyst as planned, but the “pause” to subjugate Russia, which they wholly believed would be no more than 4-6 months, smashed the “rhythm”, now…the delay & angry people whose “spell” has worn off, are ushering in a smash and grab, as the Oil told the bankers to FO & the Fed is hand wringing. “It’s not what we planned”…
No more “Build Back Better”…gone (well “globally” anyways). Which ends with your statement, and here we all are.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 19:05 utc | 111
Re: “you implement the Great Reset you have, not the Great Reset you might want or wish to have at a later time.”
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 30 2023 18:18 utc | 43
Agreed, the sand ran out.
The COVID test run would have worked as a great catalyst as planned, but the “pause” to subjugate Russia, which they wholly believed would be no more than 4-6 months, smashed the “rhythm”, now…the delay & angry people whose “spell” has worn off, are ushering in a smash and grab, as the Oil told the bankers to FO & the Fed is hand wringing. “It’s not what we planned”…
No more “Build Back Better”…gone (well “globally” anyways). Which ends with your statement, and here we all are.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 19:05 utc | 112
RE: Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 30 2023 19:00 utc | 53
The glaring problem with Gates, those “think tanks” & most current Legislators is that they are so old, and embedded in a bubble of their own ideology, they are unable to grasp a serious “American” issue.
Americans have lost faith and trust, in ALL institutions.
In MSM. In “elected” officials. The days of “turning a Congressman, who then “turns” his “constituents”… are overspent. They cashed all their credits in.
When Americans are paying 6.00 a gallon for gas, the “message” about “Ukraine” means crap.
In a nutshell, Americans could care a less about their Government’s “message”, for once, they care about their own getting through.
The one way message days are finished.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 19:25 utc | 113
RE: Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 30 2023 19:00 utc | 53
The glaring problem with Gates, those “think tanks” & most current Legislators is that they are so old, and embedded in a bubble of their own ideology, they are unable to grasp a serious “American” issue.
Americans have lost faith and trust, in ALL institutions.
In MSM. In “elected” officials. The days of “turning a Congressman, who then “turns” his “constituents”… are overspent. They cashed all their credits in.
When Americans are paying 6.00 a gallon for gas, the “message” about “Ukraine” means crap.
In a nutshell, Americans could care a less about their Government’s “message”, for once, they care about their own getting through.
The one way message days are finished.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 19:25 utc | 114
Someone posted this website to MOA around a year ago, and I immediately bookmarked it.
This is an outstanding website which highlights videos from front-line Russian troops.
For those of us in the West, you may need to conceal your ISP behind a VPN to access.
https://voenhronika.ru/
Posted by: AJ | Sep 30 2023 19:26 utc | 115
Someone posted this website to MOA around a year ago, and I immediately bookmarked it.
This is an outstanding website which highlights videos from front-line Russian troops.
For those of us in the West, you may need to conceal your ISP behind a VPN to access.
https://voenhronika.ru/
Posted by: AJ | Sep 30 2023 19:26 utc | 116
by cirsium | Sep 30 2023 18:58 utc | 52
Just a bit about Andromeda yacht – Bavaria 51 – it is not possible to use this vessel for 6 people recreational diving trip, let alone some Jamesbondish deep waters blow-up action.
Without the decompression chamber, they are all dead.
Chamber cannot fit on a such vessel. There is no currently known deep dive technique that can be made portable, without special gas mixers, without umbilical support – depths we are talking about is around 60-100 meters and fixing explosives takes not just few minutes but a lot more time.
The vessel is simply not big enough, it is dead slow for such action, and I doubt that it’ll pass unnoticed by Danish or German radars or patrol boats and operating around the sensitive area.
Forget this story – it is all bull.
The USA military has the means and has been in the area to install and blow NS easily, with possible time delay fuses or as Hersh is claiming airdrop activation buoys.
Posted by: whirlX | Sep 30 2023 19:41 utc | 117
by cirsium | Sep 30 2023 18:58 utc | 52
Just a bit about Andromeda yacht – Bavaria 51 – it is not possible to use this vessel for 6 people recreational diving trip, let alone some Jamesbondish deep waters blow-up action.
Without the decompression chamber, they are all dead.
Chamber cannot fit on a such vessel. There is no currently known deep dive technique that can be made portable, without special gas mixers, without umbilical support – depths we are talking about is around 60-100 meters and fixing explosives takes not just few minutes but a lot more time.
The vessel is simply not big enough, it is dead slow for such action, and I doubt that it’ll pass unnoticed by Danish or German radars or patrol boats and operating around the sensitive area.
Forget this story – it is all bull.
The USA military has the means and has been in the area to install and blow NS easily, with possible time delay fuses or as Hersh is claiming airdrop activation buoys.
Posted by: whirlX | Sep 30 2023 19:41 utc | 118
Dima says Ukraine is soon going to cross Dnieper soon.
Very bold move.
They do not count their dead.
Posted by: simplex | Sep 30 2023 19:42 utc | 119
Dima says Ukraine is soon going to cross Dnieper soon.
Very bold move.
They do not count their dead.
Posted by: simplex | Sep 30 2023 19:42 utc | 120
Strange to read attempts at reason on subject matter of Russia when a recent piece on China brought forth utter garbage presented as “Proof of evil CPC”!
Smacks of white supremacist much.
Posted by: Surferket | Sep 30 2023 19:48 utc | 121
Strange to read attempts at reason on subject matter of Russia when a recent piece on China brought forth utter garbage presented as “Proof of evil CPC”!
Smacks of white supremacist much.
Posted by: Surferket | Sep 30 2023 19:48 utc | 122
It’s gratifying to see the continuing relevance of Twain recognized at the bar. Please allow me to repost, for those who haven’t ever seen them, these links to his The War Prayer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_War_Prayer
https://youtu.be/0ZmEAZCOYSE?si=pECTITqJV8N09Hb6
https://www.americanyawp.com/reader/19-american-empire/mark-twain-the-war-prayer-ca-1904-5/
Posted by: Babel-17 | Sep 30 2023 20:03 utc | 123
It’s gratifying to see the continuing relevance of Twain recognized at the bar. Please allow me to repost, for those who haven’t ever seen them, these links to his The War Prayer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_War_Prayer
https://youtu.be/0ZmEAZCOYSE?si=pECTITqJV8N09Hb6
https://www.americanyawp.com/reader/19-american-empire/mark-twain-the-war-prayer-ca-1904-5/
Posted by: Babel-17 | Sep 30 2023 20:03 utc | 124
RE: Posted by: simplex | Sep 30 2023 19:42 utc | 59
Hardly matters which side of the river they die on. Not sure of his point. Of course they count their dead. But past stats, they simply don’t care.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 20:11 utc | 125
RE: Posted by: simplex | Sep 30 2023 19:42 utc | 59
Hardly matters which side of the river they die on. Not sure of his point. Of course they count their dead. But past stats, they simply don’t care.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 20:11 utc | 126
by simplex | Sep 30 2023 19:42 utc | 59
Yes, Dima (MilSum) says a lot of things.
Although I appreciate his sitreps, his English is rather limited, and I think he cannot really express himself or transmit the idea he has.
I doubt that crossing the Dnepr will succeed at any point along the river or its islands, and Ukraine will be stupid to try that in this situation.
I would actually expect RF to do that in synchro to the Northern Kharkov and Western Donbass offensive actions – if those ever happen.
What Ukraine might try, is to mess around NPP again. That is what I expect them to do as the last resort.
If RF ever decides to take Odesa this will be the strategic, operational and most exciting ninja action of the whole SMO.
Posted by: whirlX | Sep 30 2023 20:15 utc | 127
by simplex | Sep 30 2023 19:42 utc | 59
Yes, Dima (MilSum) says a lot of things.
Although I appreciate his sitreps, his English is rather limited, and I think he cannot really express himself or transmit the idea he has.
I doubt that crossing the Dnepr will succeed at any point along the river or its islands, and Ukraine will be stupid to try that in this situation.
I would actually expect RF to do that in synchro to the Northern Kharkov and Western Donbass offensive actions – if those ever happen.
What Ukraine might try, is to mess around NPP again. That is what I expect them to do as the last resort.
If RF ever decides to take Odesa this will be the strategic, operational and most exciting ninja action of the whole SMO.
Posted by: whirlX | Sep 30 2023 20:15 utc | 128
Posted by: AJ | Sep 30 2023 19:26 utc | 57
So grateful for this link. Thank you very much.
Posted by: Mexicana | Sep 30 2023 20:17 utc | 129
Posted by: AJ | Sep 30 2023 19:26 utc | 57
So grateful for this link. Thank you very much.
Posted by: Mexicana | Sep 30 2023 20:17 utc | 130
Posted by: Susan | Sep 30 2023 16:04 utc | 15
At the time of the Spanish-American war late in the 19th century, there was a vigourous debate on the role of the US in the world. One side, led by Teddy Roosevelt, Henry Cabot Lodge and William Randolph Hearst advocated for American imperialism. The other side, notably Mark Twain, Andrew Carnegie, and Booker Washington argued against it. We all know which side won the argument, but at the time, at least there was vigorous national debate of this issue, so unlike today when the people meekly accept whatever foreign policy our so-called leaders decide on. A very good book on this time is by Stephen Kinzer The True Flag: Theodore Roosevelt, Mark Twain and the Birth of American Empire
As an aside, before he was president Ted Roosevelt was hawk in the mold of Bolton. Most of his contemporaries thought he was a total loon.
Posted by: Mike R | Sep 30 2023 20:43 utc | 131
Posted by: Susan | Sep 30 2023 16:04 utc | 15
At the time of the Spanish-American war late in the 19th century, there was a vigourous debate on the role of the US in the world. One side, led by Teddy Roosevelt, Henry Cabot Lodge and William Randolph Hearst advocated for American imperialism. The other side, notably Mark Twain, Andrew Carnegie, and Booker Washington argued against it. We all know which side won the argument, but at the time, at least there was vigorous national debate of this issue, so unlike today when the people meekly accept whatever foreign policy our so-called leaders decide on. A very good book on this time is by Stephen Kinzer The True Flag: Theodore Roosevelt, Mark Twain and the Birth of American Empire
As an aside, before he was president Ted Roosevelt was hawk in the mold of Bolton. Most of his contemporaries thought he was a total loon.
Posted by: Mike R | Sep 30 2023 20:43 utc | 132
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 30 2023 15:57 utc | 14
RF is blowing up a fair amount of critical bridges lately. A lot of people here including myself wondered what the Russians were up leaving these standing all this time, many reasons offered all around including incompetence and negligence. These bridges are being hit with a mix of DRG, planes, and missiles so maybe the RF has better access now, but Russia always had the missiles, so the posters saying it was bait, that the MoD wanted NATO to move men and machines to the front to get destroyed were right.
So now they’re being taken down, what does that imply?
Posted by: The Owl | Sep 30 2023 20:47 utc | 133
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 30 2023 15:57 utc | 14
RF is blowing up a fair amount of critical bridges lately. A lot of people here including myself wondered what the Russians were up leaving these standing all this time, many reasons offered all around including incompetence and negligence. These bridges are being hit with a mix of DRG, planes, and missiles so maybe the RF has better access now, but Russia always had the missiles, so the posters saying it was bait, that the MoD wanted NATO to move men and machines to the front to get destroyed were right.
So now they’re being taken down, what does that imply?
Posted by: The Owl | Sep 30 2023 20:47 utc | 134
In a nutshell, Americans could care a less about their Government’s “message”, for once, they care about their own getting through.
The one way message days are finished.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 19:25 utc | 56
This isn’t the public message. The RC thinks out foreign policy in this journal. Strictly pay-walled.
Know thy enemy is a critical principle of war making. Dismiss their discussions at your own peril.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 30 2023 20:55 utc | 135
In a nutshell, Americans could care a less about their Government’s “message”, for once, they care about their own getting through.
The one way message days are finished.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 19:25 utc | 56
This isn’t the public message. The RC thinks out foreign policy in this journal. Strictly pay-walled.
Know thy enemy is a critical principle of war making. Dismiss their discussions at your own peril.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 30 2023 20:55 utc | 136
Mike R @ 65
As an aside, before he was president Ted Roosevelt was hawk in the mold of Bolton. Most of his contemporaries thought he was a total loon.
Great insight, I see it now, excellent use of the chrono-synclastic infundibulum.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 30 2023 20:58 utc | 137
Mike R @ 65
As an aside, before he was president Ted Roosevelt was hawk in the mold of Bolton. Most of his contemporaries thought he was a total loon.
Great insight, I see it now, excellent use of the chrono-synclastic infundibulum.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 30 2023 20:58 utc | 138
Posted by: whirlX | Sep 30 2023 19:41 utc | 58
—————————————————
Thank you whirlX, your point is very well accepted by everyone who is not an ignoramus, a fool, or a damn liar. (I noticed that I misspelled “liar” in my comment above.)
Posted by: Ed | Sep 30 2023 21:08 utc | 139
Posted by: whirlX | Sep 30 2023 19:41 utc | 58
—————————————————
Thank you whirlX, your point is very well accepted by everyone who is not an ignoramus, a fool, or a damn liar. (I noticed that I misspelled “liar” in my comment above.)
Posted by: Ed | Sep 30 2023 21:08 utc | 140
Posted by: Mexicana | Sep 30 2023 20:17 utc
You are quite welcome, as I consider it one of the most incisive websites available.
One might spend many hours there, perusing the video links.
I can’t take credit however.
Someone else posted the link to MOA around a year ago, and I just clicked on it.
Jackpot for all of us.
Posted by: AJ | Sep 30 2023 21:18 utc | 141
Posted by: Mexicana | Sep 30 2023 20:17 utc
You are quite welcome, as I consider it one of the most incisive websites available.
One might spend many hours there, perusing the video links.
I can’t take credit however.
Someone else posted the link to MOA around a year ago, and I just clicked on it.
Jackpot for all of us.
Posted by: AJ | Sep 30 2023 21:18 utc | 142
Now there is another way of viewing the Prigozhin affair.
During April of 2023, Prigozhin, and co-conspirators in the Russian Ministry of Defense, organized what appeared to be a serious dispute between them, although, as one might expect, it was never exactly clear what this dispute was about. This sowing of discord was to provide a plausible excuse to completely withdraw the Wagner group from Bakhmut (the town the Russians call Artyomovsk) as the Ukrainians were losing badly to the Wagner fighters.
On April 30 Prigozhin (the Wagner spokesperson, often incorrectly called the head of the group) accused the country’s military leaders of “high treason” for not providing his group with ammunition, and threatened to withdraw Wagner from Bakhmut if it didn’t receive more ammunition.
On May 5 Prigozhin stated that Wagner would pull out of Bakhmut on May 10. He stated this even though he had recently predicted that the (long delayed) Ukrainian counter-offensive would begin by 15 May. Thus, it is was somewhat likely, according to him, that the Ukrainian counter-offensive would occur after Wagner had been withdrawn, or as Wagner was being withdrawn. A Russian Patriot could hardly have missed that this might occur, and would not have planned a May 10 pullout. Yet Prigozhin does not even notice the problem. It is evidently not a concern of his.
In the evening of the next day the Ministry of Defense promised that the Wagner group would get all the arms they needed. Not having a sufficient excuse to pull Wagner fighters out, they stay, and fight, until May 20, when Wagner declared victory in Bakhmut. However, what was victory in Bakhmut? Victory in Bakhmut was simply the pushing of the Ukrainian army out of the contiguous suburbs of Bakhmut into the area west and south-west of the city. So, victory in Bakhmut, left intact most of the army that had been in Bakhmut, only now it was positioned west and south-west of the city, where much of it remains to this day. So even though we are told that the fight in Bakhmut is over, it actually still goes on.
On May 25 Wagner began their withdrawal from Bakhmut, and the transfer of positions to the Russian army. This was completed by June 1. So, the traitor Prigozhin had been able to arrange for Wagner fighters to be completely withdrawn and replaced by supposedly less capable forces. Not only that, but the Wagner forces left no fortified lines. These had to be cobbled together by the replacement forces and held against the entire Ukrainian army that had withdrawn from Bakhmut, and was now west, and south-west, of the city. This they were able to do. See this short video by Alexander Mercouris. Wagner’s withdrawal let the pressure off the remaining Ukrainian forces giving them time to stabilize their defenses and plan future offenses. This is a similar strategy to that used by the traitor Surovikin at Kherson, and east of Kharkov. In one case you win the battle for the enemy by ordering your own troops to withdraw. In the other, you have the enemy escape defeat, by ordering your own troops to withdraw.
Bakhmut demonstrated that the Wagner forces are the best assault forces in the world. The Ukrainians know this and have worked to neutralize them. This is what the Prigozhin protest/rebellion was all about. Prigozhin called it a protest (against poor/treacherous treatment by the Ministry of Defense), but western “observers” called it a mutiny and worked to turn it into a fully fledged rebellion. That it was not a mutiny is obvious. The so called “march on Moscow” (from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow) was a march of over 1,000 kms, so they had no chance of getting to Moscow, let alone fighting there. The plan of the Russian traitors was to use the protest/rebellion as an excuse to expel Wagner forces from Ukraine. This is what happened. Many ended up in Belarus. The coup in Niger is part of the same operation, by the same Russian traitors. The plan is to have what is left of Wagner sent to Africa. Wagner is to be permanently removed from the fighting in Ukraine. They are to be sent somewhere else, anywhere else, anywhere other than back to Ukraine.
And, yet,… they are back and reconstituted in Ukraine.
Most of this article was probably written some time ago. Still it is an interesting take on things.
Posted by: Honko | Sep 30 2023 21:23 utc | 143
Now there is another way of viewing the Prigozhin affair.
During April of 2023, Prigozhin, and co-conspirators in the Russian Ministry of Defense, organized what appeared to be a serious dispute between them, although, as one might expect, it was never exactly clear what this dispute was about. This sowing of discord was to provide a plausible excuse to completely withdraw the Wagner group from Bakhmut (the town the Russians call Artyomovsk) as the Ukrainians were losing badly to the Wagner fighters.
On April 30 Prigozhin (the Wagner spokesperson, often incorrectly called the head of the group) accused the country’s military leaders of “high treason” for not providing his group with ammunition, and threatened to withdraw Wagner from Bakhmut if it didn’t receive more ammunition.
On May 5 Prigozhin stated that Wagner would pull out of Bakhmut on May 10. He stated this even though he had recently predicted that the (long delayed) Ukrainian counter-offensive would begin by 15 May. Thus, it is was somewhat likely, according to him, that the Ukrainian counter-offensive would occur after Wagner had been withdrawn, or as Wagner was being withdrawn. A Russian Patriot could hardly have missed that this might occur, and would not have planned a May 10 pullout. Yet Prigozhin does not even notice the problem. It is evidently not a concern of his.
In the evening of the next day the Ministry of Defense promised that the Wagner group would get all the arms they needed. Not having a sufficient excuse to pull Wagner fighters out, they stay, and fight, until May 20, when Wagner declared victory in Bakhmut. However, what was victory in Bakhmut? Victory in Bakhmut was simply the pushing of the Ukrainian army out of the contiguous suburbs of Bakhmut into the area west and south-west of the city. So, victory in Bakhmut, left intact most of the army that had been in Bakhmut, only now it was positioned west and south-west of the city, where much of it remains to this day. So even though we are told that the fight in Bakhmut is over, it actually still goes on.
On May 25 Wagner began their withdrawal from Bakhmut, and the transfer of positions to the Russian army. This was completed by June 1. So, the traitor Prigozhin had been able to arrange for Wagner fighters to be completely withdrawn and replaced by supposedly less capable forces. Not only that, but the Wagner forces left no fortified lines. These had to be cobbled together by the replacement forces and held against the entire Ukrainian army that had withdrawn from Bakhmut, and was now west, and south-west, of the city. This they were able to do. See this short video by Alexander Mercouris. Wagner’s withdrawal let the pressure off the remaining Ukrainian forces giving them time to stabilize their defenses and plan future offenses. This is a similar strategy to that used by the traitor Surovikin at Kherson, and east of Kharkov. In one case you win the battle for the enemy by ordering your own troops to withdraw. In the other, you have the enemy escape defeat, by ordering your own troops to withdraw.
Bakhmut demonstrated that the Wagner forces are the best assault forces in the world. The Ukrainians know this and have worked to neutralize them. This is what the Prigozhin protest/rebellion was all about. Prigozhin called it a protest (against poor/treacherous treatment by the Ministry of Defense), but western “observers” called it a mutiny and worked to turn it into a fully fledged rebellion. That it was not a mutiny is obvious. The so called “march on Moscow” (from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow) was a march of over 1,000 kms, so they had no chance of getting to Moscow, let alone fighting there. The plan of the Russian traitors was to use the protest/rebellion as an excuse to expel Wagner forces from Ukraine. This is what happened. Many ended up in Belarus. The coup in Niger is part of the same operation, by the same Russian traitors. The plan is to have what is left of Wagner sent to Africa. Wagner is to be permanently removed from the fighting in Ukraine. They are to be sent somewhere else, anywhere else, anywhere other than back to Ukraine.
And, yet,… they are back and reconstituted in Ukraine.
Most of this article was probably written some time ago. Still it is an interesting take on things.
Posted by: Honko | Sep 30 2023 21:23 utc | 144
So now they’re being taken down, what does that imply?
Posted by: The Owl | Sep 30 2023 20:47 utc | 66
It seems clear to me that the Russians have decided that, as part of a fitness program, that all the UA troops east of the Oskil River will have to walk home. They seem determined on that as today they have blown bridge 5, a pontoon bridge.
More seriously, they have now trapped all the logistics and armour located east of the river making resupply very difficult and withdrawal the same. Deprived of food, water, medics and ammo/fuel life will now be very difficult. Following their now well proven tactics, the Russians will no doubt let them stew for a while and then when the UA is suffering, advance slowly up to the river bank. Then they will use their own bridging to cross it.
Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 30 2023 21:24 utc | 145
So now they’re being taken down, what does that imply?
Posted by: The Owl | Sep 30 2023 20:47 utc | 66
It seems clear to me that the Russians have decided that, as part of a fitness program, that all the UA troops east of the Oskil River will have to walk home. They seem determined on that as today they have blown bridge 5, a pontoon bridge.
More seriously, they have now trapped all the logistics and armour located east of the river making resupply very difficult and withdrawal the same. Deprived of food, water, medics and ammo/fuel life will now be very difficult. Following their now well proven tactics, the Russians will no doubt let them stew for a while and then when the UA is suffering, advance slowly up to the river bank. Then they will use their own bridging to cross it.
Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 30 2023 21:24 utc | 146
Most of this article was probably written some time ago. Still it is an interesting take on things.
Posted by: Honko | Sep 30 2023 21:23 utc | 71
By you or who? surely you should credit the author?
Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 30 2023 21:29 utc | 147
Most of this article was probably written some time ago. Still it is an interesting take on things.
Posted by: Honko | Sep 30 2023 21:23 utc | 71
By you or who? surely you should credit the author?
Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 30 2023 21:29 utc | 148
‘On the other hand, Russian aggression has united Ukrainians, including many who are Russian speaking, to an extent never seen before. Moscow has thereby inadvertently reinforced the separate Ukrainian identity that both Russian mythology and President Putin have sought to deny. What Ukraine has lost in territory it has gained in patriotic cohesion based on passionate opposition to Moscow’
This is a quote from Chas Freeman, referenced above. I have wondered about this. How true is this? I have seen no information with respect.
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | Sep 30 2023 21:38 utc | 149
‘On the other hand, Russian aggression has united Ukrainians, including many who are Russian speaking, to an extent never seen before. Moscow has thereby inadvertently reinforced the separate Ukrainian identity that both Russian mythology and President Putin have sought to deny. What Ukraine has lost in territory it has gained in patriotic cohesion based on passionate opposition to Moscow’
This is a quote from Chas Freeman, referenced above. I have wondered about this. How true is this? I have seen no information with respect.
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | Sep 30 2023 21:38 utc | 150
The was video on Slavyangrad today.
Ruskies bested a group of Ukrs – I think was near Rabotino. They managed to capture a handful – maybe 5. As they are escorting them back to Russian side (I guess they were not very close) the Ukrs hit thier own with a montar – they were injured. The Russians rushed in and picked them up and helped them to continúe. I cannot fathom The bravery and compasión shown. Very moving.
Posted by: jared | Sep 30 2023 21:39 utc | 151
The was video on Slavyangrad today.
Ruskies bested a group of Ukrs – I think was near Rabotino. They managed to capture a handful – maybe 5. As they are escorting them back to Russian side (I guess they were not very close) the Ukrs hit thier own with a montar – they were injured. The Russians rushed in and picked them up and helped them to continúe. I cannot fathom The bravery and compasión shown. Very moving.
Posted by: jared | Sep 30 2023 21:39 utc | 152
Seriously, who doesn’t love the “Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Head of Russia’s Security” troll.
After celebrating the “one year” New Russian Territory’s…
He comments on how he sees “growing new territory’s to come”…. Lol
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 15:13 utc | 7
This time it is not just Medvedev on message.
Yes, he said there will be more new regions within Russia and that the SMO will continue until the Kiev regime is completely destroyed, but first it was Volodin, chairman of Russia’s lower house, the State Duma, followed by Lavrov who said it first.
Probably, rather than them all trolling, Volodin and Lavrov not being known for that, this is an indication that the Kremlin made a final decision. Ukraine will be left as a rump in the west, maybe called that as a sop to the West to be somewhere to pin their humongous debts on.
Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 30 2023 21:48 utc | 153
Seriously, who doesn’t love the “Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Head of Russia’s Security” troll.
After celebrating the “one year” New Russian Territory’s…
He comments on how he sees “growing new territory’s to come”…. Lol
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 15:13 utc | 7
This time it is not just Medvedev on message.
Yes, he said there will be more new regions within Russia and that the SMO will continue until the Kiev regime is completely destroyed, but first it was Volodin, chairman of Russia’s lower house, the State Duma, followed by Lavrov who said it first.
Probably, rather than them all trolling, Volodin and Lavrov not being known for that, this is an indication that the Kremlin made a final decision. Ukraine will be left as a rump in the west, maybe called that as a sop to the West to be somewhere to pin their humongous debts on.
Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 30 2023 21:48 utc | 154
Most of this article was probably written some time ago. Still it is an interesting take on things.
Posted by: Honko | Sep 30 2023 21:23 utc | 71
————————————————-
You throw the “traitor” around a lot. Whoever wrote the article is not a friend of Russia, must be a TROLL!
Posted by: Ed | Sep 30 2023 21:57 utc | 155
Most of this article was probably written some time ago. Still it is an interesting take on things.
Posted by: Honko | Sep 30 2023 21:23 utc | 71
————————————————-
You throw the “traitor” around a lot. Whoever wrote the article is not a friend of Russia, must be a TROLL!
Posted by: Ed | Sep 30 2023 21:57 utc | 156
What Ukraine has lost in territory it has gained in patriotic cohesion based on passionate opposition to Moscow’
This is a quote from Chas Freeman, referenced above. I have wondered about this. How true is this? I have seen no information with respect.
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | Sep 30 2023 21:38 utc | 74
There is a famous quote by now long-dead former Russian PM Chernomyrdin: “Nothing like this ever happened and now again!”
Thousands of Ukies settled all over the world after being cleansed out of Ukraine in 1945 and spent 80 years hatind Russia and teaching nothing but this hate to anyone around them ( Canada last week says “Hi!”). And now to save at least some face media think-tanks will say that US has destroyed Ukraine but now at least some Ukies will unite in hate of Russia…
And some people will pretend to be stupid and say that they still “have seen no information with this respect”. Riiiight…
Posted by: Poslan1 | Sep 30 2023 21:58 utc | 157
What Ukraine has lost in territory it has gained in patriotic cohesion based on passionate opposition to Moscow’
This is a quote from Chas Freeman, referenced above. I have wondered about this. How true is this? I have seen no information with respect.
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | Sep 30 2023 21:38 utc | 74
There is a famous quote by now long-dead former Russian PM Chernomyrdin: “Nothing like this ever happened and now again!”
Thousands of Ukies settled all over the world after being cleansed out of Ukraine in 1945 and spent 80 years hatind Russia and teaching nothing but this hate to anyone around them ( Canada last week says “Hi!”). And now to save at least some face media think-tanks will say that US has destroyed Ukraine but now at least some Ukies will unite in hate of Russia…
And some people will pretend to be stupid and say that they still “have seen no information with this respect”. Riiiight…
Posted by: Poslan1 | Sep 30 2023 21:58 utc | 158
RE: Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 30 2023 21:48 utc | 76
I agree. There’s no other way this ends it appears. The continued machinations of the West, “plots” as the Iranians say, solidify the decision. There even back to using chemical weapons on Russian soldiers again.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 22:00 utc | 159
RE: Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 30 2023 21:48 utc | 76
I agree. There’s no other way this ends it appears. The continued machinations of the West, “plots” as the Iranians say, solidify the decision. There even back to using chemical weapons on Russian soldiers again.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 22:00 utc | 160
Interesting take on Medvedev, I can’t imagine that at this point Putin hasn’t carefully vetted the people around him, but everything is worth considering:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-t1vNdI7Jxw
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 30 2023 22:04 utc | 161
Interesting take on Medvedev, I can’t imagine that at this point Putin hasn’t carefully vetted the people around him, but everything is worth considering:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-t1vNdI7Jxw
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 30 2023 22:04 utc | 162
Blinken accuses Russia of “burying” WW2 massacre:
https://tass.com/politics/1682765
Exactly what Medvedev said according to TASS:
https://tass.com/politics/1682705
“Russian forces destroy military train loading point in Nikolayev Region”
https://tass.com/defense/1682771
“Russian forces destroy enemy personnel concentration area near Kurakhovo”
https://tass.com/defense/1682773
“Battlegroup South artillery wipes out six Ukrainian strongholds in Kleshcheyevka”
https://tass.com/defense/1682647
Scholtz had NOT made decision (that we know of) but is being encouraged to send “Taurus”:
“The Bundestag’s Defense Committee head, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann urged Chancellor Olaf Scholz to give Kiev Taurus rockets”
https://www.rt.com/news/583832-germany-top-mp-cruise-missiles-ukraine/
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 22:29 utc | 163
Blinken accuses Russia of “burying” WW2 massacre:
https://tass.com/politics/1682765
Exactly what Medvedev said according to TASS:
https://tass.com/politics/1682705
“Russian forces destroy military train loading point in Nikolayev Region”
https://tass.com/defense/1682771
“Russian forces destroy enemy personnel concentration area near Kurakhovo”
https://tass.com/defense/1682773
“Battlegroup South artillery wipes out six Ukrainian strongholds in Kleshcheyevka”
https://tass.com/defense/1682647
Scholtz had NOT made decision (that we know of) but is being encouraged to send “Taurus”:
“The Bundestag’s Defense Committee head, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann urged Chancellor Olaf Scholz to give Kiev Taurus rockets”
https://www.rt.com/news/583832-germany-top-mp-cruise-missiles-ukraine/
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 22:29 utc | 164
NY talking about Americans being treated from Ukraine fighting.
YouTube full of foreign legion fighter stories
Britain now saying they will send troops to Ukraine to train soldiers
And so it begins,
Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 30 2023 22:33 utc | 165
NY talking about Americans being treated from Ukraine fighting.
YouTube full of foreign legion fighter stories
Britain now saying they will send troops to Ukraine to train soldiers
And so it begins,
Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 30 2023 22:33 utc | 166
Ed @54
Thanks for the heads up on Eliason. He and Helmer had some interesting discussions on TNT for a few months. Then the latter left for reasons about which I am unclear. After that Eliason seemed more of a windbag with an agenda, but I thought I would ask.
I will take him off my (long) list.
cirsium @52, whirlX @58
Thanks for your comments but Eliason’s explanation did not include the Andromeda nor any other yacht. If it had, I wouldn’t have needed to come here for a second opinion!
Posted by: echelon | Sep 30 2023 22:33 utc | 167
Ed @54
Thanks for the heads up on Eliason. He and Helmer had some interesting discussions on TNT for a few months. Then the latter left for reasons about which I am unclear. After that Eliason seemed more of a windbag with an agenda, but I thought I would ask.
I will take him off my (long) list.
cirsium @52, whirlX @58
Thanks for your comments but Eliason’s explanation did not include the Andromeda nor any other yacht. If it had, I wouldn’t have needed to come here for a second opinion!
Posted by: echelon | Sep 30 2023 22:33 utc | 168
The new defence secretary, Grant Shapps, said he has held talks with army leaders about deploying British troops within Ukraine for the first time for a training programme.
Shapps, who met Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, for talks in Kyiv earlier this week, said the proposal being discussed would reduce the reliance on the UK and other Nato members’ bases.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/30/british-troops-could-deploy-to-ukraine-to-train-soldiers-says-grant-shapps#:~:text=The%20new%20defence%20secretary%2C%20Grant,time%20for%20a%20training%20programme.
Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 30 2023 22:48 utc | 169
The new defence secretary, Grant Shapps, said he has held talks with army leaders about deploying British troops within Ukraine for the first time for a training programme.
Shapps, who met Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, for talks in Kyiv earlier this week, said the proposal being discussed would reduce the reliance on the UK and other Nato members’ bases.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/30/british-troops-could-deploy-to-ukraine-to-train-soldiers-says-grant-shapps#:~:text=The%20new%20defence%20secretary%2C%20Grant,time%20for%20a%20training%20programme.
Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 30 2023 22:48 utc | 170
Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 30 2023 22:48 utc | 84
If the entire British army was deployed to the Zaporozhye front, would it make a difference? Remember they also trained AFU for their counter-offensive and results are already memory holed in the west.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 22:58 utc | 171
Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 30 2023 22:48 utc | 84
If the entire British army was deployed to the Zaporozhye front, would it make a difference? Remember they also trained AFU for their counter-offensive and results are already memory holed in the west.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 22:58 utc | 172
Great Twain quote, Susan! Twain argued valiantly against the Spanish-American, which was propelled by William Randolph Hearst and the false flag “attack” on the Maine..
Posted by: pyrrhus | Sep 30 2023 22:59 utc | 173
Great Twain quote, Susan! Twain argued valiantly against the Spanish-American, which was propelled by William Randolph Hearst and the false flag “attack” on the Maine..
Posted by: pyrrhus | Sep 30 2023 22:59 utc | 174
Your daily dose of Geraniums.
Geranium updates for the past 2 hours:
⚡️Another group of Geraniums is flying to the Odessa region from the Black Sea
⚡️Explosions in Odessa region
Ukrainian TG channels write about the work of air defense. Everyone is trying to bring down Geranium.
⚡️ Geraniums are heading towards Uman (Cherkasy region)
⚡️ A new group of Geraniums flies to Vinnytsia region via Odessa region
⚡️ Another group of Geraniums is flying to the Dnepropetrovsk region
⚡️Explosions reported in Uman (Cherkasy region)
⚡️Ukrainian TG channels report explosions in Kharkov
Before this, a missile threat was announced
⚡️ New arrivals are reported in Kharkov
⚡️Two more arrivals are reported from Kharkov
After the arrivals, a fire started at the tank repair plant.
⚡️A new group of Geraniums flies to Cherkasy region
⚡️Ukrainian TG channels report explosions in the Kramatorsk region (DPR, occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces)
⚡️Explosions in Zaporozhye (occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces)
Before the explosions, a missile threat was announced.
❗️Sounds of today’s arrivals in Kharkov
Powerful explosions.
❗️The Gauleiter of Kharkov reported that at least 4 explosions were heard in the city
⚡️ Ukrainian TG channels report explosions in Snigirevka (Nikolaev region)
❗️ Older than Edda reports that in Druzhkovka (DPR, occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces) there is an exact arrival at the warehouse
❗️At night in Kyiv there was an explosion and after it a fire started
Ukrainian TG channels did not report on arrivals or air raid warnings. We are waiting for information.
⚡️New explosions in Uman
Arrival of Geraniums has been reported.
Intelligence found something big there, judging by the attention.
#Source:
https://t.me/ukraina_ru/171305
@Slavyangrad
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 23:05 utc | 175
Your daily dose of Geraniums.
Geranium updates for the past 2 hours:
⚡️Another group of Geraniums is flying to the Odessa region from the Black Sea
⚡️Explosions in Odessa region
Ukrainian TG channels write about the work of air defense. Everyone is trying to bring down Geranium.
⚡️ Geraniums are heading towards Uman (Cherkasy region)
⚡️ A new group of Geraniums flies to Vinnytsia region via Odessa region
⚡️ Another group of Geraniums is flying to the Dnepropetrovsk region
⚡️Explosions reported in Uman (Cherkasy region)
⚡️Ukrainian TG channels report explosions in Kharkov
Before this, a missile threat was announced
⚡️ New arrivals are reported in Kharkov
⚡️Two more arrivals are reported from Kharkov
After the arrivals, a fire started at the tank repair plant.
⚡️A new group of Geraniums flies to Cherkasy region
⚡️Ukrainian TG channels report explosions in the Kramatorsk region (DPR, occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces)
⚡️Explosions in Zaporozhye (occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces)
Before the explosions, a missile threat was announced.
❗️Sounds of today’s arrivals in Kharkov
Powerful explosions.
❗️The Gauleiter of Kharkov reported that at least 4 explosions were heard in the city
⚡️ Ukrainian TG channels report explosions in Snigirevka (Nikolaev region)
❗️ Older than Edda reports that in Druzhkovka (DPR, occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces) there is an exact arrival at the warehouse
❗️At night in Kyiv there was an explosion and after it a fire started
Ukrainian TG channels did not report on arrivals or air raid warnings. We are waiting for information.
⚡️New explosions in Uman
Arrival of Geraniums has been reported.
Intelligence found something big there, judging by the attention.
#Source:
https://t.me/ukraina_ru/171305
@Slavyangrad
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 23:05 utc | 176
@LightYearsFromHome | Sep 30 2023 20:58 utc | 68
“chrono-synclastic infundibulum”
Haven’t read those words in several decades. Sirens of Titan was a trip!
Is this a bushy mustache trope? Vonnegut sported one from what I recall.
You’ve just re-cast the teams! – Roosevelt & Bolton vs Twain & Vonnegut
…all w/ brooms
Posted by: Spinworthy | Sep 30 2023 23:08 utc | 177
@LightYearsFromHome | Sep 30 2023 20:58 utc | 68
“chrono-synclastic infundibulum”
Haven’t read those words in several decades. Sirens of Titan was a trip!
Is this a bushy mustache trope? Vonnegut sported one from what I recall.
You’ve just re-cast the teams! – Roosevelt & Bolton vs Twain & Vonnegut
…all w/ brooms
Posted by: Spinworthy | Sep 30 2023 23:08 utc | 178
RE: Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 23:05 utc | 87
Thx. Those updates were helpful.
Something for you;
https://tass.com/politics/1682743
Ukraine concentrates Marines near Energodar, on Kakhovka Reservoir islands — official
According to Federation Council senator from the Zaporozhye Region and head of the “Tsar’s Wolves” military-technical center, this prediction is based on constant observation of the enemy.
“Ukrainian forces prepare an offensive on Kherson and Zaporozhye directions in early October with an aim to capture the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.”
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 23:21 utc | 179
RE: Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 23:05 utc | 87
Thx. Those updates were helpful.
Something for you;
https://tass.com/politics/1682743
Ukraine concentrates Marines near Energodar, on Kakhovka Reservoir islands — official
According to Federation Council senator from the Zaporozhye Region and head of the “Tsar’s Wolves” military-technical center, this prediction is based on constant observation of the enemy.
“Ukrainian forces prepare an offensive on Kherson and Zaporozhye directions in early October with an aim to capture the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.”
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 23:21 utc | 180
RE: “Intelligence found something big there, judging by the attention.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 23:05 utc | 87
Did you mean in Uman?
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 23:26 utc | 181
RE: “Intelligence found something big there, judging by the attention.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 23:05 utc | 87
Did you mean in Uman?
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 23:26 utc | 182
Trubind1@89…..Ukie must feel he has weakened Russia to the point where they can take the NPP by October…….’24
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 30 2023 23:29 utc | 183
Trubind1@89…..Ukie must feel he has weakened Russia to the point where they can take the NPP by October…….’24
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 30 2023 23:29 utc | 184
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 23:21 utc | 89
The nuclear plant in Energodar (Zaporozhye) was supposed to be captured in August 2022, and it was also supposed to be captured in conjunction with their counter-offensive from Orekhov south.
Well, the counter-offensive didn’t work out, and the plan to capture it separately across the wide river bank seems pretty stupid. The same as the other plans to cross from Kherson, once again, without a successful offensive in Zaporozhye region. This offensive was the key to everything. It will be soon obvious the key was thrown into the ocean, and with it, everything else.
The only reason why they would do that is either PR and/or threatening of nuclear sabotage (holding plant as hostage). US has been wanting to declare a “UN security zone” around the Zaporozhye plant for pretty much forever. They want AFU to take the plant for that purpose. It’s delusional, but that’s what the Washington imbeciles figured.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 23:29 utc | 185
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 23:21 utc | 89
The nuclear plant in Energodar (Zaporozhye) was supposed to be captured in August 2022, and it was also supposed to be captured in conjunction with their counter-offensive from Orekhov south.
Well, the counter-offensive didn’t work out, and the plan to capture it separately across the wide river bank seems pretty stupid. The same as the other plans to cross from Kherson, once again, without a successful offensive in Zaporozhye region. This offensive was the key to everything. It will be soon obvious the key was thrown into the ocean, and with it, everything else.
The only reason why they would do that is either PR and/or threatening of nuclear sabotage (holding plant as hostage). US has been wanting to declare a “UN security zone” around the Zaporozhye plant for pretty much forever. They want AFU to take the plant for that purpose. It’s delusional, but that’s what the Washington imbeciles figured.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 23:29 utc | 186
US has been wanting to declare a “UN security zone” around the Zaporozhye plant for pretty much forever.
Is that even possible when Russia when Russia has a veto?
Posted by: RiNS | Sep 30 2023 23:43 utc | 187
US has been wanting to declare a “UN security zone” around the Zaporozhye plant for pretty much forever.
Is that even possible when Russia when Russia has a veto?
Posted by: RiNS | Sep 30 2023 23:43 utc | 188
Posted by: Shnikks | Sep 30 2023 14:31 utc | 1
If those numbers are accurate, yes, I think the Ukrainians will break at some point. It doesn’t matter how much money the West throws at the war. They’ll realize it’s a lost cause. Already that’s starting to happen with Poland and others starting to pull funding. It’s also October in Ukraine so the counteroffensive is effectively done.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 30 2023 23:55 utc | 189
Posted by: Shnikks | Sep 30 2023 14:31 utc | 1
If those numbers are accurate, yes, I think the Ukrainians will break at some point. It doesn’t matter how much money the West throws at the war. They’ll realize it’s a lost cause. Already that’s starting to happen with Poland and others starting to pull funding. It’s also October in Ukraine so the counteroffensive is effectively done.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 30 2023 23:55 utc | 190
Owl@66…..it implies Russia never had any version of air superiority in Theatre. Still don’t. Otherwise they’d fly CAP and toast any Ukie bird in the air. Almost daily attacks on Crimea, some miss, some hit, terror sucks, they might even eventually get the bridge, bit of a feather in the cap moment if they do. If.
Russia has had to modify WW2 munitions in various versions to hit with force, Ukie front and mid rear lines, Arty is cool and spectacular, but those FAB 500 and bigger versions are ripping Ukie concentrations apart.
From memory, 155 arty shell weighs about 100lbs, so 1500 lb FAB would be like 15 arty shells hitting at once, and the Russians can guide them to target…..ouch.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 30 2023 23:56 utc | 191
Owl@66…..it implies Russia never had any version of air superiority in Theatre. Still don’t. Otherwise they’d fly CAP and toast any Ukie bird in the air. Almost daily attacks on Crimea, some miss, some hit, terror sucks, they might even eventually get the bridge, bit of a feather in the cap moment if they do. If.
Russia has had to modify WW2 munitions in various versions to hit with force, Ukie front and mid rear lines, Arty is cool and spectacular, but those FAB 500 and bigger versions are ripping Ukie concentrations apart.
From memory, 155 arty shell weighs about 100lbs, so 1500 lb FAB would be like 15 arty shells hitting at once, and the Russians can guide them to target…..ouch.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 30 2023 23:56 utc | 192
RE: Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 23:29 utc | 92
Completely agree. The imagined machinations appear endless.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 1 2023 0:09 utc | 193
RE: Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 23:29 utc | 92
Completely agree. The imagined machinations appear endless.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 1 2023 0:09 utc | 194
RE: Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 30 2023 23:29 utc | 91
Lol… yeah, I made my assertion a week or so ago that I foresee a Russian offensive beginning the 2nd-3rd week in October to take all of Zaporozhye & Khearson. While rest of line holds positions.
Brazil has Chair at UNSC, little that matters, I think all these “target” practices by Russia, is prep, Wagner will go back to Bakmut and free all those troops, & Naval drones & assets will move into Crimea.
In any case, that’s my crystal ball.
We’ll see…
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 1 2023 0:17 utc | 195
RE: Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 30 2023 23:29 utc | 91
Lol… yeah, I made my assertion a week or so ago that I foresee a Russian offensive beginning the 2nd-3rd week in October to take all of Zaporozhye & Khearson. While rest of line holds positions.
Brazil has Chair at UNSC, little that matters, I think all these “target” practices by Russia, is prep, Wagner will go back to Bakmut and free all those troops, & Naval drones & assets will move into Crimea.
In any case, that’s my crystal ball.
We’ll see…
Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 1 2023 0:17 utc | 196
it implies Russia never had any version of air superiority in Theatre. Still don’t. Otherwise they’d fly CAP and toast any Ukie bird in the air. Almost daily attacks on Crimea, some miss, some hit, terror sucks, they might even eventually get the bridge, bit of a feather in the cap moment if they do. If.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 30 2023 23:56 utc | 95
Well, the SMO has morphed into a SMO against the entire Nato, which sent pretty much all its advanced land based air defense systems to Ukraine. As such, not gaining “full air superiority” is to be expected. What’s to be noted though is in the first months Russian aircraft were flying pretty deep in western Ukraine and even destroying ammunition trucks on the highway.
In general, it just needs to be accepted that no one can really gain “full air superiority” nowadays anymore. Russia can’t gain full air superiority over entire Ukraine. But they have a strong air superiority over the front lines and pretty far into the rear areas, which is what actually matters. They have dedicated CAP hunting for AFU planes coming close to the front lines, armed with the newest long range air missiles.
The Crimea strikes are based simply on the fact that the Storm shadow / Scalp missiles fly so low over the water. As an object is lower, radar effective range decreases. Russia could develop some sort of floating radar drones synched to the air defense grid and blanket them off the coast of Crimea. Another option is flying AWACS over Crimea and the sea around it to detect them, but AWACS can’t be in the air all the time. Since Sevastopol is on the end of the peninsula, it relies on the immediate last line of defense, which is the first to detect the low flying missiles with the least amount of warning time.
Yes, the Russian navy isn’t really moving these days out of port, but the missile range enables them to not really need to move anywhere. They also have the mutually combined air and sea defense concentrated in a single area around the port. But the Crimea thing is definitely one of the rare PR victories for Ukraine/Nato.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 0:29 utc | 197
it implies Russia never had any version of air superiority in Theatre. Still don’t. Otherwise they’d fly CAP and toast any Ukie bird in the air. Almost daily attacks on Crimea, some miss, some hit, terror sucks, they might even eventually get the bridge, bit of a feather in the cap moment if they do. If.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 30 2023 23:56 utc | 95
Well, the SMO has morphed into a SMO against the entire Nato, which sent pretty much all its advanced land based air defense systems to Ukraine. As such, not gaining “full air superiority” is to be expected. What’s to be noted though is in the first months Russian aircraft were flying pretty deep in western Ukraine and even destroying ammunition trucks on the highway.
In general, it just needs to be accepted that no one can really gain “full air superiority” nowadays anymore. Russia can’t gain full air superiority over entire Ukraine. But they have a strong air superiority over the front lines and pretty far into the rear areas, which is what actually matters. They have dedicated CAP hunting for AFU planes coming close to the front lines, armed with the newest long range air missiles.
The Crimea strikes are based simply on the fact that the Storm shadow / Scalp missiles fly so low over the water. As an object is lower, radar effective range decreases. Russia could develop some sort of floating radar drones synched to the air defense grid and blanket them off the coast of Crimea. Another option is flying AWACS over Crimea and the sea around it to detect them, but AWACS can’t be in the air all the time. Since Sevastopol is on the end of the peninsula, it relies on the immediate last line of defense, which is the first to detect the low flying missiles with the least amount of warning time.
Yes, the Russian navy isn’t really moving these days out of port, but the missile range enables them to not really need to move anywhere. They also have the mutually combined air and sea defense concentrated in a single area around the port. But the Crimea thing is definitely one of the rare PR victories for Ukraine/Nato.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2023 0:29 utc | 198
One lesson to be drawn from the conflict is that western tank designers really need to up their game.
Russian troops, who are of course untrained demoralised conscripts who are always drunk on vodka, and who have run out of every type of equipment, and who are armed only with shovels, have nonetheless succeeded in destroying Leopards, Challengers, AMX 10s, and the rest (with their shovels.)
There must be some major design flaws at work here if they can be destroyed only with shovels (unless these shovels have some unexplained secret anti tank capabilities.)
Posted by: anon | Oct 1 2023 0:49 utc | 199
One lesson to be drawn from the conflict is that western tank designers really need to up their game.
Russian troops, who are of course untrained demoralised conscripts who are always drunk on vodka, and who have run out of every type of equipment, and who are armed only with shovels, have nonetheless succeeded in destroying Leopards, Challengers, AMX 10s, and the rest (with their shovels.)
There must be some major design flaws at work here if they can be destroyed only with shovels (unless these shovels have some unexplained secret anti tank capabilities.)
Posted by: anon | Oct 1 2023 0:49 utc | 200