Posted by: Justpassinby | Sep 24 2023 11:14 utc | 129
Canadas and indeed the “west’s” entire political aparatus (all parties) is completely corrupt and guilty of both crimes against humanity and war crimes.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Sep 24 2023 13:07 utc | 303

What’s up with Donetsk? Insurgents? Spies?
“Donetsk People’s Republic imposes military censorship on mail, phone conversations”
https://tass.com/politics/1679645
“Donetsk People’s Republic introduces curfew from 11 pm. to 4 a.m. on weekdays“
https://tass.com/politics/1679647
I’m sure Patrick might have an answer.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 24 2023 13:08 utc | 305

@ Membrum Virile, §152:
Yes almost as good as Britain´s QE II (with no aircraft) – to say nothing of most of the American carriers always in repair.
Without significant changes, the days of aircraft carriers are gone forever: they´re too vulnerable and an enormous expense. The future is submarines.
But the Russians have the engineers for innovation of both surface vessels and submarine vessels: the Americans not so much, as the land war in the Ukraine has demonstrated.

Posted by: John Marks | Sep 24 2023 13:13 utc | 307

If we go with the 400k/400k KIA/WIA figures, it means Ukraine could still mobilize 2.0 – 2.8 million people, crudely. Of course, we should consider the censorship is at least on the level of WW2 Germany, which can keep it in the high end.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 23 2023 23:17 utc | 59
Neither Censorship, nor your speculations, can hide the fact that the Ukies are mobilizing boys and old men… This belies your ruminations…
Which if true….
Mean.. at 20,000 KIA / month that this war has 100 months to go…???
Using what ammo???
Your handlers have forgotten one important detail…
While this 10 year carnage continues…. War against China will be off the table….
BECAUSE….
NATO will have it’s hands full making the engines of war Ukraine needs…
So….
Some sanity….
A quick and dirty way to estimate the Ukrainian war loses. (re-post from prev. thread)
Count and average the UKR military KIAs reported daily by the MoD Russia ( https://t.me/mod_russia_en ). They average at around 700/day.
So, per week is 700 x 7 = 4,900 or say 5,000
A month has 4.33 weeks, but lets say it has 4 weeks. So, 5,000 x 4 = 20,000 KIAs per month, or 20,000 x 12 = 240,000 KIAs per year.
There is a factor of 1.5 when calculating the WIA.
So, 20,000 x 1.5 = 30,000 WIAs per month, or 360,000 WIAs per year.
From above KIAs + WIAs are 20,000 + 30,000 = 50,000 Loses per month, or 240,000 + 360,000 = 600,000 Loses per year
Since the beginning of SMO, it passed 1 year and 7 months, or 19 months. So, 50,000 Loses (KIAs+WIAs) x 19 = 950,000 loses since the beginning of the SMO. The above estimate doesn’t include the MIAs, deserters, prisoners, death and/or other incapacitation due to preexisting health conditions, and misc. other loses.
So, about 1 million loses or about one half of mobilized UKR personnel was lost in the 19 months since the start of SMO.
Notes: The total mobilized UKR is about 2,000,000 while the pool of available bodies for the mobilization at the beginning of the war was about 4,000,000. Obviously, a country can NOT mobilize everybody who’s available, since you still need people to run basic functions and services.
Posted by: Poison Frogs | Sep 23 2023 17:23 utc | 1
Now… the Ukie population is ~ 15 million, of that 10.4 million are pensioners, Poland alone has ~ 5 million Ukie refugees… Russia ~ 10 million… Donbas ~7 million ROW ~ 5 million KIA/WIA 1 Million… from a pre-war population of ~ 34 million…
They are conscripting boys and old men and women because the rest are dead or left.
The current bunch are such poor soldiers that a lone Russian killed two lounging near the end of a wall, neither of which kept a lookout, one more than a minute after the first, who did nothing to protect himself.
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 24 2023 13:23 utc | 309

The Russian MoD ordered the disbandment of Wagner sometime around 2010.
Posted by: Suresh | Sep 24 2023 5:29 utc | 90
Info I have seen said Wagner was first created in 2014 to help in the Donbas.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Sep 24 2023 13:38 utc | 311

btw – so funny you all se trolls everywhere – but you can’t see how Putin takes you all deep from behind 🙂
Posted by: Showflake | Sep 24 2023 7:15 utc | 99
It appears you like being taken by Prince Charlie deep from behind though. What is it that does it for you? The aftertaste of Earl Grey?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 24 2023 13:39 utc | 313

Re. Jeffrey Sachs. Spot on Trubind1 | Sep 23 2023 22:43 utc | 52 Also several other commentators such as Mullen (87) and Pretzelattack (102).
While I sympathize with Brewster (e.g. 87) that leopards or hyenas can be useful at times, they do not change their spots (old African saying). Sachs is not only a phony he is not even a good economist. He was at the forefront promoting ‘big bang’liberalization which suited Wall Street but not the victims of central planning. Poland did suffer badly at first whereupon Sachs criticized the IMF especially for not providing adequate financing, which was later provided. However, the scale of financing required for Russia under big bang was multiples greater and the resources were simply not forthcoming- geopolitics is Sachs’s subsequent rationalization.
The Chinese had presented an alternative plan based on their successful experience. This was rejected out of hand by Western economists. I recall Chinese economists saying in 1991 that they knew Russia and central planning and, in retrospect presciently, that in another 30 years they would follow the Chinese path.
Sachs is a smart narcisstic operator whose main utility, and here I fully agree with Trubind1, is as a weather vane that predicts emerging trends. In the past he was able to exploit it riding on the coat tails of US exceptionalism. However, the global south is a very different proposition which explains his growing despondency.

Posted by: No more BS | Sep 24 2023 13:52 utc | 315

Slovakian Election this week – Who wins?
“End the Ukraine War” Robert Fico is favourite – what will a Fico victory mean? A new united front from Hungary-Slovakia on ending the Ukraine War?
One can only hope.
What do people think?

Posted by: Julian | Sep 24 2023 13:53 utc | 317

RE: “Thanks for the polite engagement. It’s rare these days, even here.”
Posted by: john brewster | Sep 24 2023 5:08 utc | 87Thanks for the polite engagement. Its rare these days, even here.
I admit I am jaded when it comes to those formally or currently embedded in US constructs.
I try to maintain a “skeptical” filter, but does veer off into deep “cynicism” at times, which honestly, isn’t helpful.
And thank you, cause civil disagreements help me learn and honestly is the goal humanity is trying reach. Not this mantra of “take a side”…US used to be a kind of “live and let live”:.. but dang, it’s vicious out there now.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 24 2023 14:19 utc | 319

You want to read the convention pdf? Google found it here:
justsecurity.org/85181/assessing-military-operations-in-the-black-sea-a-year-into-russias-full-scale-invasion-of-ukraine/
Posted by: rk | Sep 24 2023 12:11 utc | 141
Unfortunately what you posted is not the Montreaux convention.

Posted by: Mario | Sep 24 2023 14:31 utc | 321

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 24 2023 7:39 utc | 102

I welcome his opposition to the Ukraine War now, as well as Mearsheimer’s and RFK jr’s. there are schisms in the factions among the powers that be,

—-
Mearsheimer is the perfect analogy. Someone who is consistent, logical, and speaks truth to power. However, Sachs simply doesn’t have the track record of Mearsheimer, who has stood up to the Israeli lobby. That said, Mearsheimer is a calculating, cold-blooded US imperialist who simply complains that he could make the empire’s trains run on time. But, as you say, don’t interrupt the enemy when he is fighting among himself.
—————–
Posted by: No more BS | Sep 24 2023 13:52 utc | 159

Sachs is a smart narcisstic operator whose main utility, and here I fully agree with Trubind1, is as a weather vane that predicts emerging trends. In the past he was able to exploit it riding on the coat tails of US exceptionalism. However, the global south is a very different proposition which explains his growing despondency.

—-
OK. That’s three votes for narcissitic shitweasel. I hear you all. But why does the blob tolerate almost a decade of calling out their empire? OTOH, how strong can this guy’s funding be that he couldn’t have been pressured to back off?
Since I readily accept the comparison to Mearsheimer, I am forced to concede that the guy is definitely part of the problem, not the solution. Still, his earnestness is much easier to tolerate than Krugman’s arrogance.
Of course I agree that he is a bad “economist”. But IMO all conventional economists are just pushing financial fundamentalism, privatization, and austerity. IOW, its a religion that you have to swear allegiance to if you want to be an “economist”. That said, I’m not interested in his “economics”; I’m only interested in his lengthy and devastating critique of US foreign policy. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Posted by: john brewster | Sep 24 2023 14:54 utc | 323

Showflake | Sep 24 2023 7:15 utc | 99
*** I am russian and live London – because the life is much better then with Putin.***
That you pick London says far more than enough about you (if real).

Posted by: Cynic | Sep 24 2023 15:51 utc | 325

John Marks | Sep 24 2023 13:00 utc | 149
*** Just as Princess Anne as Anne II would have been better for England, maybe Princess Toshi would be better for Japan.***
No, she supports genetically modified crop production.
And — albeit more competent and intelligent than her brother — is a member of a thoroughly corrupt Establishment dynasty which should be erased anyway.

Posted by: Cynic | Sep 24 2023 16:11 utc | 327

“We have a government that is gambling with Harmageddon, right now, in the US”
says Jeffrey Sachs in this video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRTx6wqizkM
Many thanks for the link to
polarbear4 | Sep 23 2023 22:27 utc | 49

Posted by: grunzt | Sep 24 2023 18:27 utc | 329

John Brewster, I’ve also wondered about Sachs’s sincerity. You raise good points. It is possible he has a conscience. I was at Michigan mid-1990s. It was a 2nd-tier Zionist-focused Russian studies-political science hive. I saw the destruction of the USSR from Western geniuses in real time. People paid in door screws, defaulted bonds, etc.
Now at 47, it was an obvious con-job. But the professoriat never acknowledged the West’s crimes. The political science faculty fancied themselves leftists and gnashed their teeth at Yale’s hardline rightist Poles.
I think some were lying and knew this was an ethnic ripoff and the rest didn’t care. But I’d bet my house, none of them have ever spoken out against the crimes like Sachs did.
In the end, he’s too tainted, too elevated. I refuse to listen to any more of his post-guilt output.

Posted by: Talleyrand | Sep 24 2023 22:02 utc | 331

John browser 163
I have been following this discussion about Jeffrey Sachs with interest.
If in fact economics is only a fiction , then military prowess is even more of a fiction and Nato only has narrative.
Jeffrey Sachs is referring to a previous era in which capitalism and Communism were seen as absolutes. We know now that both are produce oligarchs, and that most oligarchs are merely playing the system, not driving the agenda of war. The US senate and UK Parliament are all bought. Who are the buyers?
Some say it’s all about resources, but war and non- co-operstion are the ultimate waste of resources. Some say the MIC is just a money spinner on both sides that needs fake narratives to touch the emotions and release funds.
But I say what scriptures say, that every action stems from what is in the heart. Scriptures say that obsession with worldy wealth and power will make you into a tyrant, because the rewards of the next life will be based on good deeds, not wealth or power.
Jeffrey Sachs used to be attached to a free market view of economics, but China produced a real economy based on real hard work, not laissez faire. No economist can logically maintain that Western laissez faire economies are richer than China’s traditional economy.
So , as I see it, Jeffrey Sachs is saying , Wo a minute , don’t let’s blow up a set of values that might in fact be better than our own. I agree.
But as a Muslim, I don’t agree with the premise of his belief that economics is the be all and end all of life. I spend a large chunk of my time, thinking about how to build my next life, whose currency is recognition of our Creator, not money.
Maybe SCCC will prove me right by strongly objecting to my point of view.

Posted by: Giyane | Sep 24 2023 22:13 utc | 333

168 john brewster , sorry.

Posted by: Giyane | Sep 24 2023 22:15 utc | 335

To me the question isn’t whether Sachs is sincere.
The question is: Is he useful?

Posted by: malenkov | Sep 24 2023 22:18 utc | 337

malenkov 170
Look, I think it suits our leaders to dumb down the issues , just to get the public off their back. That’s Kennedy’s crime. He talked to the public.
Apart from the fact that our leaders are possibly not incredibly stupid, but just incredibly evil, it’s refreshing to go back in time to when politicians treated us with respect.
Is that useful? It’s nice, but I expect that only facing the end of the barrel of a hypersonic nuke can get our politicians to desist in their evil long enough to think twice.

Posted by: Giyane | Sep 25 2023 3:55 utc | 339

“But why does the blob tolerate almost a decade of calling out their empire? OTOH, how strong can this guy’s funding be that he couldn’t have been pressured to back off?”
Posted by: john brewster | Sep 24 2023 14:54 utc | 163
Simple answer: Do not undermine the existence of the Empire! Call out the empire but only for it to make concessions and adjustments that looking ahead Sachs sees as required to preserve the empire. The hidden agenda is the latter, which is probably why he is tolerated.
Thus maintain the ‘Big Bang’ but criticize for inadequate funding- Wall Street can live with that. Voice strong support for development goals but abstain from supporting the goal of food self sufficiency for each country- USDA can live with that. Criticize Nato expansion and obduracy in opposing Russian security interests, but abstain from calling for the abolition of Nato, while calling on the Russians to limit their campaign. Nato can live with both of those. Acknowledge that the Chinese economic system shows some superior traits but abstain from full scale endorsement. The US establishment can live with that. The list goes on.
Is he useful? Maybe for the West in orienting them to the inevitable, but not for us in the Global South.

Posted by: No more BS | Sep 25 2023 5:19 utc | 341

@ No more BS | Sep 25 2023 5:19 utc | 172 with the nice description of Sachs
In the networking world folks like Sachs are called Border Routers to handle traffic specifically oriented to some meme….kinda like Bernie Sanders, Krugman and such…….the creators of current agnotology…..are we sure we are sure we are sure we are sure that Empire is anti-humanistic?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 25 2023 5:59 utc | 343

Why would the US put a carrier in the Black Sea? US aircraft operate from multiple air bases in NATO countries over the Black Sea. Plus the Montreux Convention seems to ban their transit through the straits.
Posted by: ed5 | Sep 24 2023 10:11 utc | 122
Oh perhaps because this whole Ukrainian offensive has been driven by the US desire to make Sebastopol into a US base? That has been the plan for years even before the start of the SMO. The Montreux convention does ban carriers, true. But with Sebastopol in US hands, the convention would be become just another agreement the US would tear up on its whim. As the Russians say, “agreement incapable”.

Posted by: spindz | Sep 25 2023 6:04 utc | 345

we sure
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 25 2023 5:59 utc | 173
I am. The transformation of human “capital” and personal names into personal “branding” is nearly complete. In US America, surely.

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 25 2023 6:12 utc | 347

Our insight from September 4 was confirmed.
Due to the failure of three stages of the offensive, ZeErmak decided to continue the creeping offensive in the fall-winter, in order not to admit failure, which would cost them “power” and ratings.
The goal is to take Bakhmut or Tokmak, as the military themselves say, but according to our data, this will not be realistically accomplished without strengthening the army in manpower and equipment. In fact, the OP’s task is to reach some city without even recapturing it; this will be presented as a victory.
This message was voiced with the aim of stalling for time and trying to create a good “face against a bad game” in order to negotiate further funding from partners.
@Legitimnyi

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 25 2023 7:47 utc | 349

@psychohistorian | Sep 25 2023 5:59 utc | 173
Apposite!

Posted by: No more BS | Sep 25 2023 9:14 utc | 351

If the US has spent 131 billion $ in Ukraine, and Ukraine has lost 450,000 men – using round numbers here – then someone has ingressed $290,000 per dead Ukrainian.
With benefits like this, no wonder this war will go on until the last Ukrainian.

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 26 2023 14:17 utc | 353

[Merkel] was a supporter of NS2 – one area where she favored German economic interests over transatlantic subservience.
Posted by: grunzt | Sep 24 2023 9:24 utc | 113
The traditional German parties wanted to keep AfD out. If AfD is discarded as coalition partner, one needs the Green party to get a majority. The Green party demands that coal and nuclear power are shut down, wind and solar subsidized.
The idea was using Russian gas to bridge the transition period between nuclear and coal powering down, and wind and solar powering up. Gas power stations can be built very fast.
Then the Americans blew up Nord Stream.

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 26 2023 14:59 utc | 355