Ukraine Open Thread 2023-221
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on September 20, 2023 at 12:51 UTC | Permalink
next page »I come here to get Down South's reporting since I don't do social media.
Posted by: GEORGE M CHAMBERLAIN | Sep 20 2023 13:10 utc | 2
German industry responding to their government, by leaving.
I have mentioned BASF spending $10B in China. wsj, below, has a better list.
After this major Janet Yellen accomplishment she is going for net zero carbon banking. What could possibly go wrong?
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 20 2023 13:14 utc | 3
hmmm The Intercept has an article . USA got Pakistan to supply arms to Ukraine by getting them out of an IMF situation . Price was Pakistan military and USA organising the vote of no confidence vote against Imran Khan to get him out. I wonder what the relationship is between Russia and Pakistan.......
The apparently enhanced Lancet longer range that has been successful targeting further airfields with what remains -?-of Ukr airforce... vids seem to show quite a few planes on the ground!!!...via Sputnik news
"Now, conjectured the US report, the Lancet's new, longer-travel range can “threaten not just the MiGs at Dolgintsevo, but also any Ukrainian warplanes using the reserve base at Voznesensk in Nikolayev Regio". Sputnik surmises the attack is a warning that any F16 arrivals using these bases will be dealt with by such .
Comments are that the Ukr base has insufficient air defence... but I wonder why these bases have not been sufficiently targeted by Russia before ...considering Ukr planes have already been and may continue to fly and launch eg Stormshadow ... ???
Posted by: Jo | Sep 20 2023 13:26 utc | 4
and I mean these bases could have targeted by bombers and larger long range missiles ....a Ukr SU24 bomber was "intercepted "by Rus planes yesterday and more Stormshadows... so also there are still these.
Posted by: Jo | Sep 20 2023 13:38 utc | 5
Graunidad is really sophisticated as they put the main story on Nagorno Karabach to appear as EU brokered a ceasefire. I am not linking it even.
I think that Ukraine is finished and it will tone down really soon. Ze is done as his regime soon gone. Possible resolution will come out of Ukrainian military as everyone there understands that there will be no new tanks or planes, just NATO trash. Does the West understand that every doubling down will bring just negative results remains to be seen.
Maybe Down South overdoses us with TG stuff, but for some of us who are deprived of such info is not useless.
Ukrainian threads would be useful to discuss, if TG cuts will be posted upfront in a header.
Posted by: whirlX | Sep 20 2023 13:41 utc | 6
I appreciate down south reposting as well.i don't have time to comb through social media either. Thanks DS.
Posted by: Gerry | Sep 20 2023 13:42 utc | 7
I record Ukrainian drones attacks on civilians daily but I have not been able to find any reports of these since the 17th Sept. Am I missing something or have the drone attacks been suspended. Artillery attacks on civilians continue daily as usual. Could this have something to do with the UNGA or Starlink. Maybe someone has already reported on it and I have missed it. Any information would be appreciated.
Posted by: Rob Campbell | Sep 20 2023 13:43 utc | 8
Re: Down South
Ignore B, keep it up.
Oso
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | Sep 20 2023 13:53 utc | 9
Ukraine will make any sacrifice to liberate its lands…death to all Orcs!!!
Posted by: Orc_Slayer_88 | Sep 20 2023 13:55 utc | 10
b - I find that Down South's posts complement your articles and this gives a fuller picture of the situation.
Posted by: cirsium | Sep 20 2023 13:56 utc | 11
Posted by: GEORGE M CHAMBERLAIN | Sep 20 2023 13:10 utc | 2
and
Posted by: Gerry | Sep 20 2023 13:42 utc | 7
I, too, truly value DownSouth's re-posts, particularly at this crucial juncture in the war.
If the current level of re-posting is unacceptable to our host, would DownSouth please consider initiating a Substack, separate from this forum, in which to continue or even expand on the work he has been doing here?
Posted by: Mexicana | Sep 20 2023 13:56 utc | 12
I am long time reader, I disagree with @b, DownSouth's TG postings are a fabulous time saver for us, even for those like me who read the original sources, he does an unpayable work to all the readers.
I kindly suggest @b to be mercyful and understanding, as long as his re-posts are fitting the general benefit of the readers/users.
Thank you
Posted by: lurker | Sep 20 2023 13:59 utc | 13
My analysis of the Ukraine war in my blog rpdeans.blogspot.com
I post on Geopolitics, Indian national security and startups.
It's reported that just since the beginning of the "Volga" program allowing Ukrainian soldiers to surrender by contacting the RF through radio, around 3500 UA soldiers have already surrendered. The radio channels were increased a couple months ago, seeing an uptick from just 200 soldiers to the current count. This seems very significant news. Feels like a big development will come about in the next few months...
Posted by: T6 | Sep 20 2023 14:05 utc | 15
Also posting to support Down South's contributions.
The noise-to-information ratio in this forum can be deafening, and it's a reason why I post little. Down South is one of the very few posters that I follow regularly.
Posted by: Konami | Sep 20 2023 14:08 utc | 16
I enjoy the bar from work. I too find DownSouth's postings to be helpful and supplemental to the threads, b.
Thank you, b, for hosting us!
Posted by: Granite | Sep 20 2023 14:09 utc | 17
Re: Telegram posts.
What B seems to be asking is for Down South to cut back, not eliminate.
And that doesn't stop any of the rest of you from posting Telegram links. Although the same high-quality standard is implied.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 20 2023 14:13 utc | 18
that is Monty Pythonesk thinking... losing arms and legs and calling them flesh wounds is not a wise thing to do..
Posted by: RiNS | Sep 20 2023 14:14 utc | 19
hmmm The Intercept has an article . USA got Pakistan to supply arms to Ukraine by getting them out of an IMF situation . Price was Pakistan military and USA organising the vote of no confidence vote against Imran Khan to get him out. I wonder what the relationship is between Russia and Pakistan.......
Posted by: Jo | Sep 20 2023 13:26 utc | 4
The two Eurasian giants are waiting patiently for the time that the naughty, out of control, imbecilic children running that country will start psychotherapy for real.
The people will sort out the illegal occupation of their freedom, abuses and financial terror unleashed by low IQ narcissistic overgrown children.
Posted by: sal | Sep 20 2023 14:16 utc | 20
Ummm as owner of the bar B must have a good reason to ask for cutback on telegram/twitter/etc links
He doesnt even need to give explanations.
There are so many ways someone with nonactive acvountbcan still browse those sites. Nitter for twitter for example.
Dont be lazy and respect the bar owner. Cheers
Posted by: Comandante | Sep 20 2023 14:21 utc | 21
b - I find that Down South's posts complement your articles and this gives a fuller picture of the situation.
Posted by: cirsium | Sep 20 2023 13:56 utc | 11
I have the same experience. B's bar of course.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 20 2023 14:36 utc | 22
b | Sep 20 2023 13:01 utc | 1
IMO, Down South's telegram repostings are more valuable
than at least 95% of other comments.
Posted by: Cindy Martin | Sep 20 2023 14:38 utc | 23
Hal Freeman explored the life of Vladimir Putin...
https://halfreeman.wordpress.com
Putin and his colleagues realized that the end was coming for the USSR, although it does not appear that they thought it would come as quickly as it did. There were things all along that led Putin to express admiration for men like Alexander Solzhenitsyn or Andrei Sakharov, who were dissidents. He also thought the USSR should hold elections for their leaders. According to a colleague in Germany Putin called the Soviet’s participation in the war in Afghanistan “senseless and in fact criminal.” One Russian commentator I read some time ago, whose name I cannot recall, referred to Putin as a семидесятник (“semidesyatnik”). The term means, “person of the 70s,” that is, the generation that came of age in the 1970s. While of course there were exceptions, individuals of that generation were known for reaching young adulthood at the time the USSR was turning into an ineffective regime run by tired, old men. Hence, they were very patriotic in so far as their relationship to their country, but they had no strong ideological commitment to Communism or the Party. Chernobyl, the war in Afghanistan, and the declining standard of living combined to make them distrust, at least to some degree, the value of the Communist system.
At the end of his career in Germany, Putin is known for one final act of valor. On November 9, 1989 the Berlin Wall came down. The dividing line between the two “Berlins” was no more. Rioting and rabble rousing continued after the wall came down. On December 5 a large crowd of “rebels,” many of whom were armed, flooded the area of the East German secret intelligence compound, and it appeared they were doing a lot of damage. Some were screaming they were torturing people.
The KGB office and yard was located in the same compound. Around midnight a fraction of the large crowd broke off and headed toward the KGB office. Putin’s superiors had already left for the evening, and he was in charge. He had been monitoring the situation all evening and expected the rioters would come. He had phoned Moscow several times for counsel or orders. After all attempts failed, he realized Moscow was not going to respond. He was on his own. He later admitted to his own shock that no one in his home country would advise him or even talk to him. He said, “At that moment I had the feeling that the country was no more.” He must have sensed more strongly than ever that it was the twilight not only of the USSR, the country in which he had been raised, it was also the end of the Communism he had been taught from a child, and eventually it was the twilight of his own KGB career as well.
There are several varying accounts of what happened next. Some more fantastic than others. I will stick with the basics, although I am sure if one had been there that night it would not have looked like a calm event on anyone’s recollection.
Putin stopped the telephone calls to Moscow and put on his uniform. Some say he carried a side arm, but others say he left his weapon in the office. As the crowd approached Putin calmly walked out and confronted them alone. He addressed their leader in a normal tone. The German would say later he was taken aback at first because he had never heard a Russian speak such fluent German. Putin informed them the building was guarded. His men were armed, and he had already given them the orders that if anyone entered the yard they were to open fire. There was probably more said than that. Putin indicated that whatever they did to him, his men had already received their orders. He clearly gave the impression that “his men” had more firepower than they actually had. At that point he calmly turned and walked back toward the building—not knowing if they would let him live to complete that walk or not.
The crowd had gathered to harass and harm the German security. They decided they did not want to risk their lives taking on the Russians. For all his KGB career Putin had been an administrator who worked on case files, wrote, reviewed and sent reports. At that moment, on that night, however, I think he would have made Major Belov quite proud.
Apparently, Putin is made of pretty stern stuff....
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 20 2023 14:39 utc | 24
… and I mean these bases could have targeted by bombers and larger long range missiles ....a Ukr SU24 bomber was "intercepted "by Rus planes yesterday and more Stormshadows... so also there are still these.
Posted by: Jo | Sep 20 2023 13:38 utc | 5
It’s just harder that it seems to hit the planes themselves, a live video feed and the ability to steer a few kg of explosive to within a metre or so makes a huge difference. Precision really does matter,
On the other hand there are layers and levels. If RF were to magically prevent UA from operating military aircraft there is such a thing as a Ground Launched Cruise Missile so flying aircraft is mostly about destroying old hardware because cruise missiles can be got into the air other ways.
Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 20 2023 14:42 utc | 25
Max Blumenthal: Ukraine to become "Big Israel"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmICm4qO3i4&t=1851s
Posted by: crone | Sep 20 2023 14:46 utc | 26
Latest Simplicus sitrep is up
Also another plug for DownSouth's posts. He does a fantastic job of curating Telegram and bringing good content to the bar.
3 cheers for DownSouth!
Posted by: Ezz | Sep 20 2023 14:56 utc | 27
I wonder why these bases have not been sufficiently targeted by Russia before ...considering Ukr planes have already been and may continue to fly and launch eg Stormshadow ... ???
Posted by: Jo | Sep 20 2023 13:26 utc
Airfields were hit multiple times. The Migs are sent one after another from Poland, they don't wait somewhere in Ukr to be used. When natoid planes will arrive the story will be different, they need much better airfield conditions than Soviet planes
Posted by: rk | Sep 20 2023 14:59 utc | 28
Down South. I find your Telegram posts very useful.
Posted by: Rob Campbell | Sep 20 2023 15:02 utc | 29
@Posted by: b | Sep 20 2023 13:01 utc | 1
I also find Down South's TG re-postings useful. But I can understand that b might prefer Down South to be more selective? Maybe a 20-30% reduction in the number of re-postings? Just my guess, but I imagine there is significant work for b in managing the large volume of comments.
And thank you to b and Down South for all your hard work! MoA is my primary source of news now.
Posted by: tawharanui | Sep 20 2023 15:09 utc | 30
agree with @pretzelattack 22
albeit I don´t have the expertise of most others here
(I don´t have the impression the site is being convoluted via DS since its font is immediately recognizable visually)
Posted by: AG | Sep 20 2023 15:10 utc | 31
Posted by: Cindy Martin | Sep 20 2023 14:38 utc | 23
Hear, hear. Particularly true lately.
Posted by: Mexicana | Sep 20 2023 15:10 utc | 32
Going slow is winning!
Russian HQ Attacked. Many Military Officers Killed
Russian army officers key to Moscow's war effort in Ukraine were killed following a strike on their military headquarters, a Russian Telgrm channel has reported.
The VChK-OGPU outlet, which purports to have inside information from Russian security forces, said that the command post of Russia's 7th Airborne Division located in the occupied part of the southern Ukrainian oblast of Kherson had been hit.
"Many officers died from a targeted strike," said the post, "the exact number of victims has been carefully concealed. At the time of the shelling, the paratroopers had been undergoing daily planning."
The channel said the information was confirmed by Yevgeny Khanin, the chairman of the veterans organization of the 7th Guards Air Assault Division stationed in Novorossiysk, in Russia's Krasnodar region, which lies close to Kherson.
[link to www.msn.com (secure)]
Posted by: Stegiel | Sep 20 2023 15:14 utc | 33
Financial Times: Poland ramps up Ukraine criticism ahead of elections https://archive.is/NpmeY
Poland has escalated its rhetoric against Ukraine beyond a trade dispute over grain, with president Andrzej Duda comparing the war-torn country to a drowning person clinging to their rescuer and endangering their life.“Ukraine is behaving like a drowning person clinging to anything available,” Duda told Polish journalists in New York on Tuesday. “A drowning person is extremely dangerous, capable of pulling you down to the depths . . . simply drown the rescuer.”
The president’s unflattering remarks came after Poland led a coalition of central and eastern European countries that extended unilateral curbs on imports of Ukrainian foodstuffs despite the EU agreeing to lift them on Friday.
“We have the right to defend ourselves against harm being done to us,” Duda said.
Warsaw is now unlikely to extend the current level of support granted to about 1mn Ukrainian refugees beyond 2024. “These regulations will simply expire next year,” Polish government spokesperson Piotr Müller said on Monday.
Zelensky reacts on Twitter https://archive.is/qyNuI
Russia has blocked our Black and Azov sea ports and continues to target our Danube ports with missiles and drones. It tries to weaponize global food shortages in exchange for recognition of some, if not all, of the captured territories. Russia is launching food prices as weapons.We opened a temporary sea export corridor. We’re working to preserve land routes. Alarmingly, some in Europe play out solidarity in a political theater—turning grain into a thriller. They may seem to play their own roles. In fact they’re helping set the stage for a Moscow actor.
Posted by: qwert | Sep 20 2023 15:17 utc | 34
Posted by: Stegiel | Sep 20 2023 15:14 utc | 33
Are you trying to reassure yourself? Everything the Ukrainians say can be taken with a fist sized ball of salt. Even if true I'm struggling to understand why you think it matters?
The Ukrainians (not all being completely retarded or having a death wish) having the coward Maericans helping them will of course be able to pull off occasional tactical successes..this is inevitable, wither slowSmo or fastSmo. What it doesn't do however is change the strategic course of the war.
Ukraine should surrender and would if it wasn't a marionette dancing to Maericas tune.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 20 2023 15:23 utc | 35
Posted by: Stegiel | Sep 20 2023 15:14 utc | 33
There is a piece written by a previous 'strictly come dancing' irish homosexual journalist based in London reporting for the newsweek outlet. Anything from newsweek is russofobic and very likely fake.
Posted by: AI | Sep 20 2023 15:31 utc | 36
I, also, for the reasons many stated above, value Down South's work.
Also, check out https://askeptic.substack.com This site is similar to Simplicius' Garden of Knowledge.
Antoinetta III
Posted by: Antoinetta III | Sep 20 2023 15:32 utc | 37
Victory, when it comes, will not feel like victory; it could not. But neither will it be a whimper, as Eliot puts it in his poem. It will simply be the end of the Special Military Operation. There will be a lot of sadness because of the destruction and lives wasted in terrible fashion. No victory parades, none.
But there will be peace, something we haven't had for a long, long time. And each of us will savor it like an unexpected blessing, and we will be thankful, indeed we will be thankful. Let's savor it in advance as this smallest liturgical feast begins- the birth of the Mother of Christ, the Theotokos. In icons, births and deaths are represented very similarly - there is shown the littlest of souls, coming into the world or departing from it.
Thanks be, that we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel, distant still perhaps, but bright with the promise of a new day ahead.
Posted by: juliania | Sep 20 2023 15:33 utc | 38
Re: Telegram posts.
What B seems to be asking is for Down South to cut back, not eliminate.
And that doesn't stop any of the rest of you from posting Telegram links. Although the same high-quality standard is implied.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 20 2023 14:13 utc | 18
-------------------------------------------------------------
Exactly Love Donbass, b just asked that Down South not monopolize the MoA with post after post of "news" from TG. The MoA belongs to b, and if those who want to have TG news all day on demand should go to TG and read it; if I am not mistaken, I think there is a pay wall.
Many (not all) of the people who are attacking b about this issue are NOT familiar to me, and I have been reading and posting comments here almost since the SMO started in February 2022. Funny how people who otherwise have nothing to say come out of the woodwork to attack b and MoA when the opportunity arises.
Posted by: Ed | Sep 20 2023 15:38 utc | 39
Ukraine will make any sacrifice to liberate its lands…death to all Orcs!!!
Posted by: Orc_Slayer_88 | Sep 20 2023 13:55 utc | 10
Here's one for the soon to be armless, legless wonder of the world.
Metallica, One.
https://youtu.be/WM8bTdBs-cw?si=Va5CqEPF83A_-57y
Go easy on the mythology buddy. You and your fellow orc slayers are going to end up like this guy.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 20 2023 15:44 utc | 40
I highly appreciate telegram summaries by Down South, because I would never dare to register with a social network myself.
Posted by: neutrino | Sep 20 2023 15:44 utc | 41
The Meth-heads that control DC have unleashed a Financial Trainwreck.
Interest this Fiscal year (Sept 30th) is $1 Trillion - more than the Pentagon. Estimated Interest for Fiscal year ending Sept 30/2024, is
$ 1.6 Trillion. Tax revenue is declining, spending is greater than budget.
New Debt, including rolling over Old Debt, demands $5-6 Trillion in funding. Foreign Purchases are wobbling and the Fed risks Hyper-inflation if they buy the Debt using newly Printed Money.
Russia is winning this war, by playing Rope-a-Dope with Ukraine, and letting the U.S. do what it is best at. Lying and Bragging.
Europe is going to rue the day they stopped paying for their own defense and were relegated to concubines being told what to do by their belligerent Benefactor.
Posted by: kupkee | Sep 20 2023 15:48 utc | 43
I only come here for five or six posters... Down South is one of them.
since I am banned I am posting to a cloud in hopes that b hears/sees before it is too late.
It isn't bots and trolls that are destroying the best blog on the internet ... it is the owner himself.
I remember back before vk.
what a sad day
Posted by: ld | Sep 20 2023 15:51 utc | 44
‘Right now, there is and will be intensive negotiations/talks in the US, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting. Reportedly, Russian FM Lavrov has given an ultimatum to President Zelensky and Biden & Zelensky will have tough talks. Allegedly, talks have been extremely tough and Zelensky may return with empty hands.’
https://greatpowerrelations.com/western-false-narrative-coming-to-an-end/
MoA gets well deserved appreciation in that article. Go’orn b.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Sep 20 2023 15:51 utc | 45
Tally of drone strikes the other night.
The moment of the explosion in Krivoy Rog last night - the sounds of arrivals were recorded by a video surveillance camera.The same explosions were heard:
▪️In Odessa and Odessa region
▪️In Khmelnitsky region
▪️Ukrainian TG channels reported about a group of "Geran" UAVs flying to the Lvov region through the Ternopil region.NE.CAXAP
https://t.me/sharednewsby/12312[ Album ]
The mayor of Lvov reported that Russian Geraniums hit an industrial warehouse in the city.The mayor of the city of Lvov reported that as a result of the work of Russian “Geraniums”, an industrial warehouse in the city was hit - a fire was recorded on its territory. However, it is not specified which industrial facility was hit.
NE.CAXAP
https://t.me/sharednewsby/12313The work of "Geranium" on the port infrastructure of the Odessa region last night (Reni in the video).
▪️In Lvov, fires in warehouses with NATO ammunition cannot be extinguished for more than 5 hours.
NE.CAXAP
https://t.me/sharednewsby/12315[ Album ]
Images from Slavyansk of a college campus building where the enemy was being stationed.ENGINEERS OF THE BLACK SEA FLEET 🇷🇺 ⚓️
https://t.me/sharednewsby/12326
American Avenger A/D system hit by D-30 howitzer. https://t.me/the_Right_People/23738
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 20 2023 15:54 utc | 46
Ukraine will make any sacrifice to liberate its lands…death to all Orcs!!!
Orc_Slayer_88
Well, not all Ukrainians are quite so insane as you may be. We read that the non-Nazi, reasonable conscripts into Zelenskyy's army are now surrendering in droves to Russian forces. I suggest that yahoos of your obvious persuasion replace these sane fellows now in Russian prison camps (where they are treated like human beings, unlike what the Kiev regime did to them). After all, someone has to keep up the MoD's daily Ukrainian casualty numbers.
Posted by: Jack Gordon | Sep 20 2023 15:54 utc | 47
Azerbaijan-Armenia Update: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/armenia-azerbaijan-update
Posted by: Rob Campbell | Sep 20 2023 15:58 utc | 48
Came across this in today's RT and if you've seen it, watch it again. It regards Idiocracy. LMAO
https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1669042023582556168
Like Canada and Indian relations now.
Posted by: Angelo | Sep 20 2023 15:59 utc | 49
🇷🇺 Footage of the destruction of the base of the forces of the 35th Marine Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Ugledar
According to the location established by intelligence for the concentration of manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the settlement. Pavlovka suffered a missile strike. A precise missile hit destroyed the militants and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the temporary deployment point.
The command and observation post of the battalion of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Ugledar area was also hit.
@Slavyangrad
https://t.me/EurasianChoice/29868
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 20 2023 16:02 utc | 50
I also appreciate reading the links posted by Deep South.
@Ed, you used the words 'attack' and 'attacking' in your comment, despite the absence of aggression in any of the comments favoring DS' efforts, including mine.
Perhaps a great many lurkers, including me, who have been following this fine site feel the importance of DS' contributions warrant speaking up.
Surely this indicates the degree of support for this source of information, no?
Posted by: Joe B | Sep 20 2023 16:04 utc | 51
@neutrino #40:
I highly appreciate telegram summaries by Down South, because I would never dare to register with a social network myself.
You don’t need to register a Telegram account to read a public Telegram channel. You can just go to its webpage and read it.
For example, here’s the link for the Russian Telegram channel Rybar: https://t.me/s/rybar
You can paste the link into Google Translate to read the channel in English: https://t-me.translate.goog/s/rybar?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en
Posted by: S | Sep 20 2023 16:10 utc | 52
Ukraine will make any sacrifice to liberate its lands…death to all Orcs!!!
Posted by: Orc_Slayer_88 | Sep 20 2023 13:55 utc | 10
In the great scheme of things mr slayer...you are the Orcs! If i remember rightly from Lord of the Rings the Orcs just threw themselves relentlessly at the forces of Gandalf.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 20 2023 16:15 utc | 53
@Ed | Sep 20 2023 15:38 utc | 38
The MoA belongs to b, and if those who want to have TG news all day on demand should go to TG and read it; if I am not mistaken, I think there is a pay wall.You are mistaken, there is absolutely zero paywalls on Telegram. I agree people should go to TG and read, there is much to learn there. I go there every day if time permits.
I understand the Down South TG posts here have been useful to some, but they have been overdone. Just keep the volume moderate and there should be no problem. If you begin to dominate a thread it is time to get your own blog.
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 20 2023 16:16 utc | 54
Simplincuis reports....
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-92023-friction-and-turmoil
A very strange and interesting incident. Russia released footage of a new variant Lancet-3M drone with extended range, hitting a Ukrainian Mig-29 jet at the Dolgintsevo airfield near Krivoy Rog:
Firstly, the good news is it shows that Lancets can now go upwards of 70km+ or more behind enemy lines, which is the distance of the airfield from Russia’s side of the Dnieper.
However, it brought up a lot of questions regarding how it’s possible that an airfield seemingly full of functional planes can be left unperturbed so close to the frontline, as you can see several other planes in the video. Some have suggested some of them may be mothballed donor planes for parts. Also based on this photo showing a stack of tires, some further suggested that Ukraine was readying to cover the planes with tires as Russia has recently done, or to burn the tires to create concealing smoke, sensing an upcoming attack—which could point to the fact that the planes had only just arrived prior to the hit:
Nevertheless, it still brings up other questions. 70km from the frontline is well within range of heavy MLRS (Smerch) as well as a variety of other systems (Iskanders, etc.) which could flatten those planes. One thing is we know days ago, Russia announced destroying 5 planes at that very field:
Since we don’t know the exact date of the Lancet video, it could have happened before or after that. Which means the Lancet may have very well just been the opening strike after having first reconned the planes there, and the subsequent missile attack followed soon after. This is the most logical explanation.
However, since this has stirred a wider discussion amongst other experts, I’ll paste a few of the most cogent ones because I think the debate around why Russia can’t just “annihilate” all Ukraine’s airfields at once is an important one. To this day, most lay people can’t understand this and believe it’s easy to just launch a mass “strike” of some sort to wipe out entire airfields making them completely unusable, as well as destroying anything parked there.
But that’s not quite how it works. The main reason being some of these Soviet constructed fields like the Starokonstantinovka one are so gargantuan it’s difficult to imagine or quite appreciate the size for the average person. There is no type of strike that can completely wipe such a thing out, short of a nuclear one. But I’ll allow the following expert to explain:
After another successful raid by Ukrainian Su-24Ms with Storm Shadow missiles, taking off from the Starokonstantinov airbase, they again began to raise the question of “why don’t we destroy enemy missiles, aircraft and their bases?” .
The answer, as always, is quite simple and banal: because we can’t.
This is not a matter of some behind-the-scenes agreements that many invent to explain what is happening. The fact is that the bases of enemy missiles and bombers are well protected by both shelters and air defense systems, and timely receipt of information from NATO satellite reconnaissance allows them to withdraw their aircraft several hours before the strike, which we have also written about several times.
At the same time, we simply do not use cluster warheads for the Kalibr or X-101 cruise missiles, which could immediately cover entire Ukrainian aviation sites (if it were possible to catch them in the open) or landfills of non-flying specimens that are taken away to spare parts for those still flying. And missiles capable of effectively hitting strong reinforced concrete shelters are few in number and extremely expensive.
On the other hand, as practice shows, our attempt to play passive defense ends with the enemy having the initiative and, having accumulated only a few difficult-to-kill missiles, simply breaking through the air defense in one specific place and causing serious damage that cannot be resisted.
Military Informant
Rybar:
"Why can't we take and destroy Ukrainian airfields, ports and railway junctions?"
A good answer to this question was given by the American military theorist Edward Luttwak in his recent article.
According to him, only for one raid of the British Air Force on Germany during the Second World War, aircraft could drop 2560 tons of ammunition.: This is more than the total tonnage delivered by Russian cruise missiles to targets on Ukrainian territory since the beginning of the CDF.
The nature of the fighting has changed dramatically since then. If then 700 (!) bombers could have participated in one attack, now there is not even such a large number of aircraft and flight personnel. Today, this approach, if the enemy has air defense, will lead to the fact that the already scarce bombers will simply run out in a month or two.
Both "Kalibry" and X-101 are effective means of pinpoint destruction. But it is certainly not worth waiting for the fact that a salvo of 10 missiles is capable of demolishing some large Soviet factory that Ukraine has inherited, for objective reasons. And this is true for other similar products, be it Tomahawk or Storm Shadow.
This is clearly seen in the example of the US attack on the Syrian Shayrat airbase in 2017: with the launch of 59 missiles and accurate hits, no "moonscape" happened there, and planes from the airfield began to take off the very next day. (Rybar)
One point the first one brings up is that if Russia had missiles specially designed to hit runways, it could at least do a somewhat better job of potentially negating runways (though they would still be fixed). There are special missiles for this some countries have, for instance France’s Matra Durandal:
The Durandal is an anti-runway penetration bomb developed by the French company Matra (now MBDA), designed to destroy airport runways and exported to several countries. A simple crater in a runway could be just filled in, so the Durandal uses two explosions to displace the concrete slabs of a runway, thus making the runway much more difficult to repair.
Russia has bombs that do this, for instance Betab-500ShP but they have to be dropped from a jet, which counts them out. The P-270 Moskit and a few other missiles are said to have secondary anti-runway functions, though I don’t think they’re specifically tailored to that like the Durandal, with the dual explosion, etc. But I’m not sure if Russia has attempted to use those on runways.
Ultimately, runways can still be fixed and even filled in relatively easily so it’s not the hugest deterrent and I’m not sure how good the trade off is between what time you gain versus the cost of the missiles you use. It’s good for something like a third world country, where you can disable their only runway, but against a military power like Ukraine it may not create much of a hindrance.
And speaking of that, here’s a new photo of a Russian Su-34 in flight with Fab-500M62 UMPK glidebombs attached.
Russia has released a new military ad which seems to “hint” at the future takeover of Kiev and Odessa:
The Ukrainian government proposes that prisoners generate electricity by pedaling bicycles.
Wars are messy..
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 20 2023 16:19 utc | 55
Ukraine will make any sacrifice to liberate its lands…death to all Orcs!!!Posted by: Orc_Slayer_88 | Sep 20 2023 13:55 utc | 10
The “88” was a nice touch. /s
Posted by: malenkov | Sep 20 2023 16:19 utc | 56
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 20 2023 15:54 utc | 45
IIRC the Avenger AD only has a passive FLIR sensor, no active radar, so detection was probably visual or poor EMCON discipline.
As for the extended range Lancets I’m wondering if they are piggy-backing for extended range options.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 20 2023 16:21 utc | 57
@Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 20 2023 16:19 utc | 55
No need to copy/paste all of simplicius, I just read the original
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-92023-friction-and-turmoil
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 20 2023 16:22 utc | 58
A much easier way than using Google translate is to download https://yandex.com/ and insert whatever russian site, including rybar, in the browser field and click translate, and voila the site is translated into english
Posted by: On the roof | Sep 20 2023 16:25 utc | 59
Perhaps an acceptable modus operandi for people like Down South to post short(er) excerpts from Telegram, SCF, etc., frame them with an introductory comment and/or summarization of the rest, and provide source links?
In any case I value Down South’s contributions highly, missed them in his absence, and hope to continue seeing them indefinitely.
Posted by: malenkov | Sep 20 2023 16:30 utc | 60
Posted by: b | Sep 20 2023 13:01 utc | 1
Will do.
Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2023 16:30 utc | 61
I usually avoid links that begin with ME (Telegram). Telegram links are uniformly poor quality video, hard to view without the app, and have fragmentary narrative. Perhaps this is why B objects to them. Telegram appears to me to be an app meant for people to view on their phones, people interested in sound bytes rather than analysis.
Posted by: A. Pols | Sep 20 2023 16:32 utc | 62
The issue of payments to dead and wounded soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is a systemic problem of the state; officials are deliberately delaying the process in order to save the budget, and in some cases they are simply waiting for a bribe to resolve the issue.Ukrainians see the attitude towards missing/dead or wounded soldiers, whom the state treats disgustingly, but propaganda does not notice the problems.
The lack of Fair mobilization, corruption in the TCC and VLK all this kills the faith of Ukrainians in the need to defend the country, while officials/politicians get rich and make money from blood.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/19745
Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2023 16:33 utc | 63
Our sources report that the Office of the President considers Poland’s actions in the trade war with Ukraine to be sanctioned by the Biden Administration, which is demanding that Zelensky begin peace negotiations with the Kremlin.The West has turned on economic methods to strangle the Ukrainian economy, and its clientele within the country is promoting corruption cases in order to weaken Zelensky’s power and make him manageable.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/19747
Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2023 16:34 utc | 64
Dear b,
because I don´t have a smartphone I can´t take part in telegramm.
Thats why I like the t.me quotes here.
MfG
Posted by: Oberbayer | Sep 20 2023 16:41 utc | 65
Most of Down South’s posts come from Telegram channels Rezident, Legitimnyy and DD Geopolitics. One can read them in English in an ordinary web browser by clicking the following links:
https://t-me.translate.goog/s/rezident_ua?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en
https://t-me.translate.goog/s/legitimniy?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en
Down South’s main contribution is selecting the most interesting posts to repost them here.
But this is b’s blog, and if b thinks Down South is overposting, then maybe Down South can start his/her own “Ukrainian/Russian Telegram digest” blog.
Posted by: S | Sep 20 2023 16:45 utc | 66
@A. Pols | Sep 20 2023 16:32 utc | 62
Telegram appears to me to be an app meant for people to view on their phones, people interested in sound bytes rather than analysis.You are mistaken, Telegram is best on a PC. I use it under Windows and Linux, rarely on a phone. People should just try it instead of speculating based on no experience.
The best Ukraine-related channels are IMHO Slavyangrad, DD Geopolitics and a few others.
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 20 2023 16:46 utc | 67
DS@64
This description reminds me of the Russian situation with Wagner PMC. The west created a tool for a task, and then the tool began to exceed its mandate and became difficult to control. It also began to criticize its master. Now there is an attempt to limit the delegated power before the situation becomes unmanageable and the tool will need to be destroyed.
Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 20 2023 16:53 utc | 68
Posted by: Orc_Slayer_88 | Sep 20 2023 13:55 utc | 10
Thanks for the NAFO troll to show off their support of Nazis.
Posted by: Colin | Sep 20 2023 16:53 utc | 69
I do use a smartphone and have no propblem viewing any telegram site when using xandex.com. And by the way, video quality is exellent.
I have at least 15 different webpages in the browser which I can read russian speaking sites daily without any problem.
I do recommend https://aftershock.news/
Posted by: On the roof | Sep 20 2023 16:55 utc | 70
67 Norweigan
Yes, the best way to read and for instance use xandex.com is on PC, but you can also use smartphone, at least here in Sweden
Posted by: On the roof | Sep 20 2023 17:00 utc | 71
@Oberbayer #65:
because I don´t have a smartphone I can´t take part in telegramm
You don’t need a smartphone to read public Telegram channels. You can read them in an ordinary web browser, on your computer. For example, try this link right now: https://t.me/s/DDGeopolitics . As you can see, it’s a sequence of posts, with the latest post at the bottom. You can scroll the page up to see earlier posts.
Each post has a HH:MM timestamp in its lower right corner. You can click this timestamp to open the post in a separate window. This allows you to share it with someone else by copying the link in the address bar (also allows you to see the date of the post).
Posted by: S | Sep 20 2023 17:03 utc | 72
Unconfirmed rumors (yes, from Telegram chatter) that "Sarah" Ashton-Cirillo has been suspended by the Kiev regime.
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 20 2023 17:05 utc | 73
All I want to know is - what’s Germany ‘double face’ feature. I cannot believe how much effort Russia put in forgiving germanys past - due to ww2 massacre against Slavic people. Germany does not deserve to be the manager of Europe. They should be cut out.
Posted by: Innuendo | Sep 20 2023 17:11 utc | 74
S @ 52
Thank you for posting those URLs. They work.
For a few months I had Telegram but it seems they reconfigure the entire ecosystem daily if not hourly. Then I became aware of the /s/ business, it too worked for a while but now there is no possible orthographic arrangement of those characters that creates a functional URL when it is my fingers on the keyboard.
I've come to the conclusion that those of us who are not pre-wired to operate the tech are simply going to die. No one will miss us. In meantime nice to have any access at all.
Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 20 2023 17:15 utc | 75
"I usually avoid links that begin with ME (Telegram). Telegram links are uniformly poor quality video, hard to view without the app, and have fragmentary narrative."
Agreed. If you are expecting to get informed and educated via social media, you are doing it wrong.
Posted by: Comandante | Sep 20 2023 17:19 utc | 76
DownSouth's psost are good to have. I deleted my Telegram as it eats memory on my PDA so a summary is useful.
Posted by: Pipedream | Sep 20 2023 17:32 utc | 77
People have got some nerves praising DS and insisting to read his TG parroting here, when b explicitly demands a reduced posting frequency!
Why not just adhere to blogowner, DS? And for the DS acolytes - why not go to TG and read the stuff yourselves or at least settle with a short summary of a (one) post, the link AND a comment of you own.
Posted by: Baddy | Sep 20 2023 17:38 utc | 78
German industry responding to their government, by leaving.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 20 2023 13:14 utc | 3
If you stay, you will have to adapt. If you leave, you will have to adapt, too. But at least if you leave the choice has been yours.
This is true for both industry and citizens.
Posted by: Passerby | Sep 20 2023 17:38 utc | 79
@S #52
Thank you. I tried your link, it's reasonably functional.
Posted by: neutrino | Sep 20 2023 17:40 utc | 80
Maybe DS shld use a tinyurl for the TG reports. It might help MoA to keep away from radars.
Posted by: Minaa | Sep 20 2023 17:44 utc | 81
@Norwegian | Sep 20 2023 17:05 utc | 74
Unconfirmed rumors (yes, from Telegram chatter) that "Sarah" Ashton-Cirillo has been suspended by the Kiev regime.It seems to be confirmed https://twitter.com/TDF_UA/status/1704513698709012889
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 20 2023 17:46 utc | 82
My analysis of the Ukraine war in my blog rpdeans.blogspot.com
I post on Geopolitics, Indian national security and startups.
Posted by: Deans | Sep 20 2023 14:02 utc | 14
"
This post is part of a series, which may be of interest those who like data based minutiae of warfare. I expect it to appeal only to a small niche. I've mentioned my data sources - the Mediazona / BBC study, which is the only one of its kind I'm aware of and oryx.
"
Mediazona (Russian: Медиазона) is a Russian independent media outlet focused on Anti Putinist opposition that was founded by Maria Alyokhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, who are also co-founders of the protest group and band Pussy Riot.
BBC, ... Without words.
Try another table!
Posted by: 600w | Sep 20 2023 17:48 utc | 83
For what or whom these Russians ve died?
===============
🗞 5 Russian peace keepers have been killed.
---------------------
❗️The car was shot at from small arms while returning from an observation post in the Janyatag area.
As a result of the shelling, the Russian servicemen who were present were killed.
Russian and Azerbaijani investigators are working on the spot.
Military Informant
Posted by: SlowSoft | Sep 20 2023 17:58 utc | 84
Ukraine will make any sacrifice to liberate its lands…death to all Orcs!!!
Posted by: Orc_Slayer_88 | Sep 20 2023 13:55 utc | 10
MOA is a virtual bar, but most people here know the reality.
But you come from the fantasy corner and probably got lost.
Is your account name meant to be provocative?
You could have chosen 87 etc., right?
Get well soon for your health!.
Posted by: 600w | Sep 20 2023 18:04 utc | 85
Posted by: Passerby | Sep 20 2023 17:38 utc | 80
To be honest, all industry that in essence makes end meet and is thus completely dependent on fossil fuels - often subsidized and cheap - has no place in the West. Its a low value added activity that seems like a charity, keeping people busy that would otherwise be working in high-added value sectors.
Such is the biological industry that we call agriculture (no relation to culture) in the West. Massive farms that pollute, pay little and are kept within the supply chain in, ahem, chains. Chemicals, paint, kitchens etc. also a massive consumer-fest in the West. The house next door was built in 2017, changed hands twice since and guess what: they all remodeled the kitchen! When we moved in our new house after living almost 10 years in a different one, we had 12m3 of accumulated crap to throw away.
Who the f needs 25 types of cereals, all in plastic and carboard? Optimized in taste, smell, looks, size and competitive shelving so that the maximum is bought and profited. Made possible by consumer modeling, in essence the same technique as propaganda.
Overconsumption is rampant, waste is rampant, pollution is out of control, corruption through lobby work and of course extraction of wealth from poorer countries.
They want to relocate: good riddance. After some adjustment we will be better for it. There is no place for corporations solely existing due to overconsumption they themselves instigate.
Posted by: alek_a | Sep 20 2023 18:05 utc | 86
Posted by: Innuendo | Sep 20 2023 17:11 utc | 75
Agree!
Germany is Putins lovely’s „western partner“
He is still living in the 60‘ or 70‘s when he lived in East Germany
Quite naive this chessmaster
But what u expect from somebody with whom his western partners were driving skateboard on Minsk 2 😁
Think he is still dreaming of Lisboa - Vladivostok
Posted by: SlowSoft | Sep 20 2023 18:09 utc | 87
I also appreciate DownSouth's posts here. Telegram doesn't work well at all for me on my desktop for some reason, so I'm relying on what he posts here.
Posted by: Ender | Sep 20 2023 18:12 utc | 88
Posted by: S | Sep 20 2023 17:03 utc | 73
thx for your reply and your links.
I am interested in the future developments,because in my army-time I was the adju of a russian
general in the nva of the gdr.
Kindly regards
Posted by: Oberbayer | Sep 20 2023 18:14 utc | 89
🇺🇲🇺🇦❗️Ukraine will not receive ATACMS missiles , Fox News correspondent Lucas Tomlinson tweeted.If true, there are more and more signs the Kiev regime is being thrown under the bus by its sponsor.
https://t.me/intelslava/51375
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 20 2023 18:17 utc | 90
The theatre of the obscene is entering its final act's.
And there will be still more appalling moments but!
The question is.
For whos benefit ?
In a decade.
Who's running the Ukraine.
And the population remnant?
That's all that needs to be revealed.
Posted by: jpc | Sep 20 2023 18:26 utc | 91
RE: Posted by: DunGroanin | Sep 20 2023 15:51 utc | 45
I appreciate the “great power” link and checked out article & MOA, I had forgotten how good those MOA articles are.
I’m not in much agreement about “back door wrangling” as others are.
After Wang Yi was assaulted by Blinken & UK Clancy about China’s “stance” and how it needed to change regarding Russia, he then immediately left for Russia and the next day publicly stated his support of all things Russia.
The VP of China was met with John Kerry, tin cup in hand for “climate support”. So the “international” lets adopt Ukraines “10 point peace proposal” was certainly dead. Or any other statement.
If there were Ukraine “proposals” … I’m sure it went like this:
Zelensky/Blinken: We want to “build a space” for talks, let’s commit to a limited ceasefire…
Russia: No.
Zelensky/Blinken: You take your men out of Zaporozhye, return the NPP, get out of Kherson, we will let you keep Crimea, and your land bridge, and we freeze the conflict, have UN elections/peacekeepers while negotiations with all parties, NATO will be taken off the table during the freeze.
Until we have Ukraine security agreements in place.
Russia: No
Zelensky/Blinken: If you do not remove your troops from our territory, we will have no choice but to destroy every place a soldier of yours is standing.
Russia: No.
Biden: “Putin could end this war tomorrow if he wanted too”.
Russia: “Now we understand one another….”
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 20 2023 18:27 utc | 92
Ukraine's chances of ever getting into the EU were always tiny. Now they are exactly zero. It will never be in NATO. It will never get ironclad security guarantees from the West. Not a single drop of western non-mercenary blood will ever be spilt on its behalf. Compared to 1991, its population will likely halve over the course of the next decade. The remnants of its industrial core are now part of Russia. So are the areas rich in natural resources and much of its fabled chernozem. Its infrastructure is in ruins. That one neighbor they used to kind of at least sometimes be able to get along with is now a mortal enemy. Outside of the dominant liberal-progressive PMC bubble, there is growing hatred for Ukrainians in Europe where there used to be just indifference - and once the right-wingers will come to power (by capitalizing on the disastrous economic consequences in France and Germany) this hostility will be shown openly with ugly consequences.
Future historians will look back at Ukraine's decision making and struggle to explain this gargantuan, self-sabotaging stupidity. Ukraine was never a bed of roses, its history drenched in blood and tears. And by adopting a nationalism purely centered on victimhood and ancient grievances they managed to make their situation even worse. I hope those brief spells of collective catharsis they experienced while lobbing shells at Donetsk or torching labor unionists in Odessa were worth all of this - because beyond those little memories they are going to lose everything in this war.
Posted by: Schlachterhund | Sep 20 2023 18:29 utc | 93
Norwegian @ 83
Unconfirmed rumors (yes, from Telegram chatter) that "Sarah" Ashton-Cirillo has been suspended by the Kiev regime. It seems to be confirmed
If Biden buys the farm or gets impeached the DNC can run Cirillo as VP for Kamala. I try not to succumb to the lure of decadence but it would be exquisite. If dystopia had limits it wouldn't be dystopia.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 20 2023 18:34 utc | 94
@85
guess Pashinyan & Aliev will award them with medals
„heros of naborny karabach“
Posted by: tesla | Sep 20 2023 18:34 utc | 95
Now that people are warming to 500k ukranian KIA lets explain a small detail.
The 1:1 KIA to WIA incapable of returning to active duty.
Everytime soldirs are hit, 1/6 dies 1/6 becomes irreversibly useless (but only 1 in 20 an amputee) and 2/3 go back to the front.
That can give an initial KIA to WIA of 1:6, but after some rounds in the carousel it's getting close to 1:1
1:3 or 1:1.67 is a typical number when you are still injecting a lot of conscripts, lot of the wonded will play again and either leave one way or the other.
Posted by: newbie | Sep 20 2023 18:36 utc | 96
because I don´t have a smartphone (...)Posted by: Oberbayer | Sep 20 2023 16:41 utc | 66
YOU LIE!
http://www.culturepub.fr/videos/les-cahiers-du-cinema-john-malkovitch/
Posted by: Leuk | Sep 20 2023 18:38 utc | 97
Norwegian @ 91
Ukraine will not receive ATACMS missiles , Fox News correspondent Lucas Tomlinson tweeted.
Meh, today off, tomorrow on, on-off, off-on, that's the trick but this ATACMS crap is getting long in the tooth. Maybe the Pentagon is as confused as they want us to be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqjhHVUzl8o
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 20 2023 18:39 utc | 98
Outside of the dominant liberal-progressive PMC bubble, there is growing hatred for Ukrainians in Europe where there used to be just indifference
Posted by: Schlachterhund | Sep 20 2023 18:29
Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), has stated her party’s intention to massively expand voting rights for foreigners. This includes a plan for refugees who have lived in Germany for more than six months to be allowed to vote, according to the German daily BILD.
Posted by: rk | Sep 20 2023 18:40 utc | 99
@100
Hahahaha
what the hell is Germany?
Germany is dead!
Its die „Mannschaft“! ))))
Posted by: tesla | Sep 20 2023 18:45 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
@Down South - please cut back on your Telegram reposting.
Posted by: b | Sep 20 2023 13:01 utc | 1