LightYearsFromHome @200: “Anyone want to speculate why Xi isn’t going to the G20?”
Xi doesn’t want to get Biden’s drool on his jacket.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 4 2023 15:30 utc | 403

Possibly the “Bound to Lose” by Mearsheimer title refers to “All you facists bound to lose” song by Woody Guthrie.
Lyrics include: “Marching ‘cross these fields
Where a million fascists died”
which pretty well matches Ukraine right now.
Mearsheimer, heh.

Posted by: Woody Guthrie | Sep 4 2023 15:32 utc | 405

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 4 2023 15:24 utc | 200
Nice explanation.

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 4 2023 15:32 utc | 407

the pessimist @202
Tesla and SpaceX succeed because of Elon Musk’s desperate rush to get to Mars, along with a minimally sufficient colony. Literally everything Musk does is towards that end. Even buying out Twitter was just to slow the collapse of western society long enough to finish a fleet of big f’n rockets to build the Mars colony with. Musk doesn’t give a shit about anything beyond this goal. He doesn’t even care about money beyond its usefulness in getting to Mars.
Why? Because Musk knows western society is terminal (Dark Ages Mk II already starting) and he doesn’t know enough about Marxism to see where China is going (he thinks they will follow the West into Dark Ages Mk II), so he see the only hope for the western Enlightenment is to get some smart people to a safe place before America goes full Mad Max with nukes.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 4 2023 15:44 utc | 409

Putin’s military strategy seems to be reasonable if one looks at it as a liberation of one’s own people who have been taken captive. It’s not just the breakaway regions that were part of USSR, but the entirety of Ukraine. Of course, much of the western side has had the population replaced, but many ethnic Russians are still there.
Large scale destruction of power generation and railroads would be viewed as a direct attack against the civilian population, the ones that Russia wants to liberate.
Russia could use it’s advanced missiles to destroy such infrastructure, but those things aren’t cheap, so the attacks wouldn’t be cost-effective. Russia doesn’t know that SMO won’t escalate to WWIII, so it must use such resources very carefully, holding back all that it can for defensive purposes.
Consider the defensive barriers that Russia has built. They have yielded an impressive kill-to-killed ratio, but they will also reduce the soldiers and equipment required to “hold the line” when Russia begins its next major offensive. More forces can be applied to offense.
I don’t believe that Russia is ready to stop. They will capture the rest of the territories of their regions, along with a buffer area. They will also capture Odessa, land-locking Ukraine and connecting to the border of Transnistria before they are ready to begin any negotiations.
Any or all of the regions in the eastern half of Ukraine will possibly vote to join Russia, if given the chance. Even the western regions might: they are probably fed up with the NATOites.
Russia’s actions have been justified by UN Charter Article I Paragraph 4, The right to Self-determination. The Donbass regions had already excercised it in 2024 to separate from Ukraine. I think that, as part of negotiations, Russia will insist that every region in whatever is left of Ukraine be given the opertunity to determine their own fate.

Posted by: barstool | Sep 4 2023 15:52 utc | 411

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 4 2023 15:28 utc | 201 “Because they are concentrating work on BRICS.”
Got a chuckle out of that.
Whatever the BRICS are, they are not united except as ‘part of China’ given this years Chinese official map release that shows parts of Russia and India as part of China.
https://twitter.com/JackFought_1/status/1698173532591607809
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1697897800141324573
https://twitter.com/spotlightoncn/status/1698544499566288913
https://twitter.com/matttttt187/status/1696940019825397966

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 4 2023 15:58 utc | 413

nice, thanks
Posted by: Tim | Sep 4 2023 6:35 utc | 124
A pleasure. For completeness: post #122 simulates the result of a single 800 kiloton nuclear weapon; a Russian Sarmat missile delivers ten.

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 4 2023 16:00 utc | 415

nice, thanks
Posted by: Tim | Sep 4 2023 6:35 utc | 124
A pleasure. For completeness: post #122 simulates the result of a single 800 kiloton nuclear weapon; a Russian Sarmat missile delivers ten.

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 4 2023 16:00 utc | 417

Re: Posted by: unimperator | Sep 4 2023 15:17 utc | 197
“Most likely Ukraine and the entire West will be left out of the grain deal“
I know Turkey had to listen to all of Ukraines nutty new ideas. Including trying to coax Turkey into dumping Montreax Treaty, or getting Turkeys military to “escort” ships and other “Black Sea” type arrangements. In meetings with Ukrainian counterparts, there was zero ability to come to a reasonable solution.
Then the UN puppet Gutierrez was as bad. He was insisting on a “3- year” grain deal, with additional ports that were not in the original deal, and all those “additions” would enable him to someday persuade US/EU to reconnect swift & fulfill rest of Russian requests, “incrementally” as soon as “Russia shows good-will”… these things will happen “after” Russia sign’s agreement. So, obviously a no-go empty UN “pledge” letter.
Turkey was earnestly trying, they honestly $$$ wise would have made a lot more if they were able to keep that gig up, but now, taking what they can get, and basically have told Ukraine.. “you’re on your own”… and if Ukraine et el in Black Sea want to try and break Russian blockade (by “blockade” I mean Russia’s “at-will” inspection of cargo ships) amidst sea mines, drones and every other weapon out there in the Black Sea. Well, have at it…they’re out. They’ll take Russian grain, via land & go. Looks like Qatar will Bank roll and move on their ships as well.
Ukraine is back to figuring out their own grain problem within EU assembled incompetence.
“Nato will target these grain ferries”
Completely agree.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 4 2023 16:16 utc | 419

https://t.me/milinfolive/105977

Another video of the defeat of the Ukrainian UJ-22 Airborne drone by the fire of a 30-mm gun of the Mi-28N helicopter.
When viewing, there is a clear shortage of a 30 mm projectile with programmable fuses in the helicopter ammunition. This would make it possible to shoot down the drone without waiting for a direct hit on it, thereby significantly reducing the time of pursuit and improving the accuracy of fire, as well as reducing collateral damage on the ground.

https://t.me/milinfolive/105972

Ukrainian channels have published two videos of strikes of Bayraktar TB-2 UAVs that have not appeared for a long time on Russian equipment on the Black Sea coast of the Kherson region.
In the conditions of a stabilized front line and high density of Russian air defense systems, the active use of Bayraktars as a shock drone was last observed a long time ago – in the autumn of 2022. Then, having received American AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles, the enemy was able to take the Russian air defense by surprise and create a temporary corridor for their UAVs.
Apparently, the reason for the free use of “Bayraktars” this time is a similar case: a few days ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine successfully struck the positional area of the air defense of the Russian Armed Forces in Crimea, which covered the southern coast of Kherson region as well. Also in Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, the active use of HARM missiles, MALD deceptions and REB systems to suppress our air defense systems was noticed.
In the near future, this hole will be closed and Turkish strike drones will return back to the niche of scouts hanging tens of kilometers from the front, however, this situation indicates how important the protection of air defense systems is and how this can affect the overall situation.

https://t.me/milinfolive/105941

As it turned out, the Tu-95MS in the satellite images from Engels were not repainted to blur the silhouette, as previously assumed, but covered with car tires.
This can be understood from recently published better images.
Apparently, it is assumed that the tires should somehow protect the Tu-95MS from the discharge of ammunition from the copter. Now it remains to wait for protective visors for missile carriers, similar to tanks

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 4 2023 16:17 utc | 421

My suggest to Russia: To create second capital located in east to facilitate commercial development and relations in that direction.
Posted by: jared | Sep 4 2023 13:21 utc | 163
I think they are mulling that idea already. Or at least they did about 10 years ago.
They considered Khabarovsk which is located 30 miles from the Chinese border. And a lot farther away from NATO’s missile defense systems.

Posted by: Martina | Sep 4 2023 16:20 utc | 423

Grain deal only if Russia reconnected to SWIFT. Maybe Russia will ship some additional grain to Turkey regardless.

Bad idea. SWIFT needs to be shitcanned, with extreme prejudice. Begging to be let back in the club will only result in dependency.
Better to shitcan it, and work with Xi and Modi on an alternate system. It isn’t rocket science we’re talking about here, just IT work.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 4 2023 16:24 utc | 425

Appeared, as stated, today’s photo of General Surovikin. For a long time he did not get into the lens of the photographer. Approximately since the events of June 23-24.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/61797

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 4 2023 16:29 utc | 427

A photo of Surovkin has appeared and the rumor is that he “retired”. If that’s true, I’ll go out on a limb and say he flew a bit too close to the sun. Either he oversupplied Wagner with some equipment they weren’t supposed to control (likely AD such as those that shot down Russian planes) and/or he was the person who ordered the helicopter attack on the convoy.
The grain deal is dead and Putin has the west over a barrel. He can maintain that he’s willing to go back to it at anytime based on meeting the conditions. I think he would reopen it if Russian conditions are met. But he knows they won’t be. Meanwhile, Turkiye can continue to profit with a different grain deal so Erdogan will do this as long as it’s beneficial to him.
Managing Turkiye relations right now is quite the challenge for everyone with Turkish relations. Putin’s managing it about as well as it can be managed.

Posted by: Lex | Sep 4 2023 16:36 utc | 429

Posted by: Lex | Sep 4 2023 16:36 utc | 216
EU can keep importing the grain, but they pretty much has to do it on trucks. Which makes it way more expensive. Also, EU has extended the Ukrainian grain ban at the request of Poland and Czech Republic.
You’re starting to see this pattern that most resources that were supposed to be looted out of Ukraine, are becoming unviable, unfeasable and unreachable.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 4 2023 16:55 utc | 431

@Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 4 2023 14:07 utc | 179
A very good point, it would not be surprising to me if the vast majority of peak-fertile women (18-30) together with their children are in Europe and Russia (including the new Russian territories). To make things even worse, the Ukrainian government just announced that all women medical staff (doctors, nurses etc.) have to register and will not be allowed to leave the country. The obvious conclusion is that they are running out of medics at the front line and these women will be sent to replace them.
The sheer scale of the depopulation, physical and psychological destruction of the core productive population of Ukraine is horrific in its efficiency. At the same time Europe has gained a new influx of white younger women, and a lesser influx of white younger men, to help forestall their demographic issues and keep wages down (although the young men may cause a lot of issues, especially as the Ukrainian women match up with European men with much better prospects). There will be a final exodus if Russian forces near the core Banderist areas in the North West.
In a way this could be turned to Russia’s advantage, as the West has carried out the equivalent of ethnic cleansing and transportation for the population that would resist and fight. There are many millions of highly skilled and motivated people around the world who would be happy to take advantage of Ukraine’s vast fertile lands and resources. Russia could treat the denuded Ukraine like the US treated their own “West”, to be populated by new immigrants from friendly nations. Perhaps a new homesteading law would be passed?
The vast fertile lands and mineral deposits (mostly in the East and South of Ukraine) will alter the balance of resource control between Russia, India and China (and their extended coalition of RICISSTAN) and the West. Especially with parts of Africa now striving to take control of their own resources.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 4 2023 17:05 utc | 433

William Gruff – Sep 4 2023 15:44 utc | 206
Indeed, for a long time, SpaceX, and Tesla before that actually, looked mostly like a con: Musk convincing foolish venture capitalists to invest billions into his pet-project so that he could build a Mars rocket, by leading them to believe he was mostly developing commercial rockets for near-space. A bit like Von Braun working with the Nazis on V2, when the only thing he was interested in was a Moon rocket, but trying his best to develop the first stages by bombing London.
He’s not in there to make firms that will actually earn billions and billions. That said, I’m not totally sure of all his motives, but some are pretty much obvious.
Still, such a plan is completely deluded: it’s way more difficult to make a livable sustainable base on Mars than to preserve part of Earth for humans. Had we found another planet that wouldn’t require any effort at terraforming, that might be loosely realistic in the middle-run (let’s say a century), but not Mars. Making Mars habitable for humans without all the hi-tech gizmos to ensure the few people there don’t die tomorrow morning actually requires an inhabited livable and reasonably prosperous Earth to actually bankroll the endeavour, bring in the resources, and develop techs and know-how. I fear some people are thinking “We did it back in 1600 when we left Europe to its religion wars and went to settle America”, but that’s stupid. You didn’t need any special tech to settle in America, you just needed some advice on the local crops, weather and fauna to survive the first few years. On Mars, pretty much 90% of your resources will have to be imported, and even after decades you’ll need some outside resources to ensure the sustainability of the colony, and you still won’t be able to breathe freely, you won’t have water flowing outside, and plenty of other terrible limitations.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Sep 4 2023 17:09 utc | 435

Pres Xi ain’t going to the forthcoming G20 summit, where Biden wanted to meet him.
Posted by: SCCC | Sep 4 2023 2:44 utc | 114
I hope that no reasonable leader ever goes close to biden or zelensky, there’s no reason to trust that either of them wouldn’t be stuffed with plastic explosive…

Posted by: Jusses | Sep 4 2023 17:10 utc | 437

@ jared, §163:
That would be, roughly, Olëkminsk (Lat 60°N, Long 120°E).
Good luck with that – but it would certainly change Russia to its advantage: economically especially with China & Japan to trade with.

Posted by: John Marks | Sep 4 2023 17:46 utc | 439

No grain deal revival. Putin brought the Turk to Dochi to humiliate him publically it seems. Good.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Sep 4 2023 18:00 utc | 441

Bhadrakhumar explains why, in his view, neither Putin nor Xi plans to attend the Delhi meeting.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/g20-last-waltz-in-a-world-torn-apart/

Posted by: bevin | Sep 4 2023 18:02 utc | 443

@Posted by: Clueless Joe | Sep 4 2023 17:09 utc | 219
Musk has absolutely no scientific training, he is basically a guy who got lucky with the Paypal startup and walked out with a chunk of cash after being pretty much sidelined by the real wealth creators. Then he bought into Tesla, and then forced out the actual founders of the company. He also got all of NASA’s technology pretty much for free plus cheap government loans for Tesla and oodles of subsidies for his rocket business.
He has been very lucky that after the 2008 GFC free money was poured into the economy by the Fed etc., providing low cost financing as his Tesla continued to lose money and fail at everything it did (solar business, underground transport, space rockets, cars, self driving). Any recession in the 2010s, or more normalized interest rates would have finished Tesla. In addition, the regulatory authorities and courts have allowed him to get away with egregious control violations and manipulations beneficial to himself and his family (e.g. the rescue of the solar business). The 2020-2022 blow-off low interest rates/mass liquidity injections period extended things, as well as the US carmakers pathetic attempts at getting into the EV market. Now we are in a different world, with interest rates normalizing and the US population (from which Tesla makes the vast majority of its profits) running out the last of their credit cards and lines of credit. He may get a small bit of luck with a UAW strike, but time is running out. Tesla’s share of even the US EV market is inexorably falling, below 50% by the end of this year.
Musk still basically has a car company with two models (everything else is marketing fluff, as with the laughable robots and now the AI BS) which is being slowly but surely squeezed into a niche at best place in the Chinese car market (got a small market share bump with two rounds of price cuts but is losing that and will end up back at below 10% market share by the end of this year). Also, Tesla makes next to no profit on its Chinese sales given the brutality of that market. The same will happen in Europe and the rest of the non-US world in the next couple of years (where Tesla has 12% share last quarter and falling). Sooner or later the reality that 90%+ of their profits come from a US market protected by China tariffs and the IRA will become evident. The Model 2 will not help (the Chinese have legions of Model 2 type cars already in place and the Europeans are improving fast).
Even the heavily Tesla-supporting channel Electric Viking is having to accept that the European legacy car makers may be getting their act together after bad false starts NEW Volkswagen ID3 gets big improvements and cheaper price. Also, Geely-Volvo is coming with their latest EV models to the US market, manufactured in the US and the German manufacturers are having success selling EVs in the US.
Tesla may very well end up as the Nortel/Cisco of the second technology bubble and crash. There will be lots of ups and downs as Musk pulls out every trick in the book but the trend will be down. The Tesla share price is based on the assumption that Tesla will be a dominant global car manufacturer with the kind of margins it had at the peak of the 2020-2022 liquidity bubble. EV margins will normalize toward the historical car market margins and Tesla’s global market share may be 10% at best.
Populating Mars? Absolute bloody phantasy. The youtube channel Thunderfoot has some excellent and entertaining takedowns of Musk’s marketing BS masquerading as scientific genius.
Starship (and SpaceX) Goes BOOM!!!
Tesla Semi: Delivers FAILURE!
Why you should NEVER believe Elon Musk! (part Deux)
Why you should NEVER believe Elon Musk!
Dumbest rebranding in History! Twitter – X
Elon Musks 5 Year Countdown!

Posted by: Roger | Sep 4 2023 18:14 utc | 445

@ Roger | Sep 4 2023 18:14 utc | 224
@ Musk followers
You’d have to be blind not to see that Musk is a stalking horse. Tesla isn’t a car company, it is a resource grab. Likewise all Musk’s other enterprises serve ulterior motives.

Posted by: too scents | Sep 4 2023 18:23 utc | 447

Clueless Joe / Roger, at least discuss Musk’s non-Ukraine activities on the relevant tread.

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 4 2023 18:27 utc | 449

reply to 223
I think that’s a good analysis of the Xi/Putin – G20 situation. Given China’s tradition of ‘saving face’, their patience with the US is remarkable for its restraint. Biden ( and Trump in a somewhat different way) is a living, ‘in your face’ insult, an utter offense. Offering dementia as an excuse is being charitable.
You can sit in your armchair and follow US/ China news as a pattern. Biden offers some empty assurance and then his administration directly contradicts it with some hostile action, days later, that China is somehow not supposed to notice. And all this on top of discarding the One China agreement in all but word.
Biden has no honor and probably never did. Worse, I doubt he could competently manage a fast food franchise – or even be employed by one.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 4 2023 18:59 utc | 451

However, I am starting to doubt Russia’s ability to conduct a successful offensive. This is due to the reports of some notable military leaders of obtaining adequate support for their troops from the Russian MOD command structure.
It could be that Sergei Shoigu has a difficult time relating to his more aggressive commanders and offensive leaders. This is often the case with a Minister of Defense that is more suspicious of aggressive commanders than being observant of their capabilities and being sensitive to the needs of the battlefield.
A great commander is able to balance their offensive and their defensive leaders to bring about victory.
I question that this is the case with Shoigu.
I think that Shoigu purposefully hinders the more aggressive commanders in their tasks on the front lines. In doing so he not only hinders the commanders and leaders he does not like, but he also jeapordises the troops under their command.
Yet another commenter totally clueless WRT Shiogu’s WRIT….ie; Responsibilities….
The STAVKA == “Russian General Staff” is headed by Gerasimov…
The STAVKA plans operations, including determining the quantities of ammo, food, men, equipment etc required.
The STAVKA selects theatre commanders and operational commanders… those tasked with an operation… attack… retreat… etc.
Operations commanders execute operations under the supervision and coordination of Theatre Commanders.
For example: Suvrokin was a Theatre Commander.
Shiogu is generally found touring defense plants and logistics centers… Only occasionally visiting STAVKA headquarters… mostly to learn their needs, hear their complaints..
Shiogu was brought over from the emergencies ministry where he turned that ministry around and made it into a functional organization….. ie: where things got done…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 4 2023 19:05 utc | 453

“The Atlantic” with a panicky piece on how the GOP is a danger to NATO and a split between EU and US is at hand over UKR.
“The U.S. and Europe Are Splitting Over Ukraine
The GOP’s populist wing would abandon Kyiv—and endanger the world’s most successful military alliance.”
By Phillips Payson O’Brien
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/europe-united-states-international-relations-decoupling/675211/
(Its mainly behind paywall. Perhaps an archived version would be worth it.)
I see this as pure propaganda to keep up the ongoing policies by constructing a strawman and spread fear.
I might be wrong but I have never bought into the GOP substantially endangering anything.
Regarding US MIC it makes no sense. GOP is part of MIC. Not opposed to it.
So is Trump. Whether he is practicing some rederick re: NATO or not.
But may be there is some real evidence that would disprove my statement.

Posted by: AG | Sep 4 2023 19:22 utc | 455

@ grunzt | Sep 4 2023 13:42 utc | 171
Prigozhin’s plane was a private corporate jet and it had just returned from Africa.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Sep 4 2023 19:24 utc | 457

Norwegian | Sep 4 2023 16:29 utc | 215
Armageddon Suvrokin.
The Russians do not let ability go to waste.
From Avia-pro; he is supposed to take responsibility for designing a defensive “shield” for CIS countries. Belarus mainly, as it is a weak point in the overall defense system, but you can bet it will be comprehensive.

Finally, all the secret fogs around the fate of General Surovikin have cleared. The last months have been full of rumors, gossip about his arrest, his state of health and other guesses. It’s time to figure out which of this turned out to be true.
Surovikin’s fate has found its new path. He will remain in the military field, but with new responsibilities. Now he will have to lead the coordination committee on air defense issues under the council of the Ministry of Defense of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Many might consider this step lower than his previous position as commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS)……
It is obvious that events in nearby countries have developed into a real struggle between Russia and the West. It would be strange to think of this as a conflict between two separate countries. Today it has become clear that the struggle is against Western countries as a whole, and Russia is forced to confront them in this difficult situation…….
***
Consequently, there is a critical need for effective air defense. Therefore, Russia is forced to prepare its air defense systems.
This is where the experience of Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin comes into play. His renowned mastery of ground defense, called the “impenetrable defense of Surovikin”, was a testament to his ability to create effective defense systems. The same systems are needed in the air.
Coordination of the air defense of the CIS countries is an important step in this direction. It is especially necessary to improve the work of the Belarusian air defense, since it is through its territory that the next unpleasant event can occur…..
***
All this will be weighed on the shoulders of General Surovikin. His experience and knowledge will allow Russia to more effectively prepare to confront new challenges.
Even despite his new role, Surovikin still remains the commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the official website of the Ministry of Defense. On the other hand, the new acting commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, General Viktor Afzalov, only temporarily holds this post.
Therefore, it is likely that Surovikin will return to his previous duties after completing his work on the steering committee. He was given time to think and develop a strategy on how to deal with new threats.

I take that as a means to ensure defense is coordinated across several countries and territories. AS Russia is the biggest, it has the biggest problems, and I suggest that it shows where things are headed globally. We are in this altogether, but it is less sure that we will all get out at the end.
https://avia-pro.net/blog/vy-dumali-armageddona-spisali-pogodite-stalo-izvestno-taynoy-roli-generala-surovikina
*****
PS:
The G-20 is on it’s way out. Neither Putin nor Xi will talk just for the sake of western PR. Nothing substantive comes out of the meeting, just promises and platitudes.

Posted by: Stonebird | Sep 4 2023 19:38 utc | 459

Here the CNN piece quoted by The Duran today about “UKR drones attacking Pskov airbase”. The admission so to speak.
“Made in Ukraine: Kyiv’s burgeoning weapons industry is enabling it to project power far beyond the front lines”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/02/europe/kyiv-weapons-industry-power-intl/index.html
the Duran (starting with this subject):
https://theduran.com/elensky-fires-reznikov-ukr-eu-extradition-mobilization-protecting-kolomoisky-porsche-tanks-u-1/
p.s. as I warned a few months ago, the war will not wind down The Duran confirms this.
Washington Post (or WSJ?) brought this piece about how the Spring Offensive 2024 will look like!
So conscripting a couple of 10.000 more poor Ukrainians to make it through the winter. Somehow.
Thats the wicked plan.
Oh my.

Posted by: AG | Sep 4 2023 19:40 utc | 461

Metaleuca and others have commented WRT Ukrainian demographics and it’s effect upon the numbers of mobilizable men.
A recent article by Roger Boyd…
https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/ukraine-a-country-of-old-and-damaged
covers this in some detail….
Between the economic emigration of previous decades, the more recent conflict driven emigration and the populations now within the control of Russia, the Ukrainian government-controlled population of Ukraine is probably down to about 20 million people. This population will be heavily skewed toward the older generations and the less able and the less skilled as the young, able and skilled are much more mobile and ready to leave for better things. A further factor that will affect the average age of the remaining population is the crash in live births in the early 1990s, following Ukrainian independence. This has resulted in the 18-30 population being much smaller than it would otherwise have been.
A study of Ukrainian demographics as given by Wikipedia, sourced in the last census shows the country to have ~ 200,000 males aged 21-25, ~ 300,000 aged 26-30, and ~ 100,000 aged 18-20. This totals to ~600,000 prime military age male 18-30 year olds based on a population of 20 million.
Russia, Poland and Germany have taken in the most Ukrainians. Poland counted 3.6 million, including 432,000 men aged 18 to 60, between February 24 and June 7, with more arriving daily since, probably ~ 4 million by now. Germany counted 867,214 from the end of February to June 19 with more arriving since, probably 1 million by now. The rest of western Europe, including Hungary, Roumania, Moldova, Serbia, etal, probably have ~ 1 million more. Russia acquired ~ 10 million with the 4 oblasts and Crimea, plus > 5 million who entered other Russian territories.
This means ~ 21 million have left the country bringing the remaining population within Ukraine to 12-15 million. Of which the vast majority are pensioners, because that cohort rely upon their paid for homes for shelter, public health services for medical care, and state pensions for income, none of which are easily replaced should they emigrate.
This means that the previous estimate of ~ 600,000 18-30 year old males is wildly optimistic.
A conservative estimate of Ukrainian losses since the start of the conflict would probably be in the region of 1,000 per day confirmed dead, irretrievably wounded, missing probably dead and taken prisoner. That’s 30,000 a month, over a period of 19 months == 570,000, a conservative estimate.given other metrics go as high as 1.2 million Ukie dead.
This specifically means that the 18-30 year-old male cohort is nearly extinct.
Ukraine has now announced a new “full” mobilization which is planned to conscript up to 500,000 more during the next 6 months, which will most probably need to include many emigrees, and those in critical occupations. Let’s remember that those selected will be skewed toward the able-bodied population, so the age group 18-60 will be denuded of its remaining members, including the infirm, given the recent guidelines.
The possibility of Ukraine being able to conscript these 500,000 is highly questionable given the level of knowledge now of the realities of the front-line among the general population; an escalation in civil unrest can be expected. Even if Ukraine could conscript this many, it does not have the equipment and time available to even adequately train and equip them at a time when the readiness of the West to pour more resources into the conflict is rapidly declining. The newly conscripted will provide only new cannon fodder, with the level of Ukrainian losses probably rapidly escalating. A trend exacerbated by the Ukraine government’s continued attempts at frontal assaults on well dug in Russian troops that are backed up by air, drone, artillery and mechanized vehicle superiority. As the Military Summary channel details, the level of Ukrainian losses has kept escalating as more and more troops are thrown against the Russian defences with the remaining Ukrainian reserves being utilized.
Facing them will be a core of many hundreds of thousands of war-experienced and well-equipped Russian troops, together with hundreds of thousands more that have undergone many months of training in addition to their prior compulsory military service. The Ukrainian army is quite probably within 6-12 months of total exhaustion and collapse, if even Ukrainian society maintains some level of stability for that long. It is in the interests of Russia to fight a war of attrition (with losses running up to 10 to 1 in its favour) until the moment of collapse arrives, as any campaign launched after that time will be many times easier and produce much lower levels of Russian losses. The other possibility is that individual Ukrainian senior officers, or groups of them, may see what is coming and start to defect to the Russians and/or plan the overthrow of Zelensky and his Western handlers. The next 6-12 months promise to be much more fluid than the previous period.
The sad end result may be a much-diminished Ukrainian population with very few able-bodied skilled men in their prime years of life (18-50) left, with many of the remaining able-bodied psychologically scarred; a nation of old and damaged men. As the Russian victory becomes obvious, the hard-core Banderist areas in the North West of Ukraine will probably undergo another surge of emigration; reducing the population even more. The fallback option in the case of such a Russian victory for the Western elites will be to destroy as much of Ukraine, including its remaining population, as possible; delivering a somewhat Pyrrhic victory, while killing and maiming as many Russians as possible. Unfortunately, the Western elites may mostly get their way for their fallback plan, apart from the masses of Russian military dead and injured that is one of their main objectives.
The populations of the Baltic States, the Taiwanese, the Finns and the Poles should take note before they are set up as the next sacrificial lambs by the Western elites.
A grim assessment, indeed.
Myself, I don’t think the Ukies will be able to scrounge up half their 500,000 recruitment goal, before the whole thing blows up in their face…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 4 2023 19:59 utc | 463

#8 asked “All ok, but if ‘killing trains ‘ was easy why isn’t Russia doing it?” The reason is that rail lines are easy to repair, so “killing trains” is mostly a wasted effort.

Posted by: DiggerDan | Sep 4 2023 19:59 utc | 465

https://matthewehret.substack.com/p/how-to-crush-a-bankers-dictatorship
I’m reposting the above as an important historical comparison I think we all need to make. It may be that financial considerations shall determine how many of our current problems are resolved, so I’d love those who are more expert than I to consider this weighty essay. My question would be, have we been where we are today before? If so, is this the way out?
Posted by: juliania | Sep 4 2023 5:29 utc | 121
I am not qualified to answer your question, but this bit of Ehret’s essay made me sit up and take notice:

FDR declared a war on Wall Street on several levels, beginning with his support of the Pecorra Commission which sent thousands of bankers to prison, and exposed the criminal activities of the top tier of Wall Street’s power structure who manipulated the depression, buying political offices and pushing fascism. Ferdinand Pecorra who ran the commission called out the deep state when he said “this small group of highly placed financiers, controlling the very springs of economic activity, holds more real power than any similar group in the United States.”

Compare FDR’s reaction to the crippling financial malfeasance of his time with Obama’s bailouts…

Posted by: farm ecologist | Sep 4 2023 20:01 utc | 467

Eighthman@227
You just made Biden’s official biographer redundant, on Labor Day.

Posted by: bevin | Sep 4 2023 20:01 utc | 469

@ Clueless Joe, §219:
Entirely agree. Mars is a dead end with insufficient gravity to keep a sufficient air-pressure.
A much better bet would be Venus, despite the heat and hostile atmosphere which contains nasties like sulphuric acid. But seeding this with sulphophilic bugs and restricting initial settlement to the cooler poles could make a first colony at least feasible.
Most young Ukrainian men would probably prefer a chance on a Venus expedition than being sent against the Russians.

Posted by: John Marks | Sep 4 2023 20:16 utc | 471

Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are really determined to genocide Slavs. Both of Russia and Ukraine are demographically screwed.

Posted by: Fuck P, Fuck Z | Sep 4 2023 20:16 utc | 473

Military summary:
-AFU in Kleschevka village is now in a big fire pocket, blocked by Azov detachment from the rear, and a group surrendered toward RU lines
-AFU has moved Leopard tanks north-East of Novopokrovka, which they are using to fire toward the settlement, RU destroyed at least a few of them. We’ll see whether it leads to AFU finally getting control of Robotyne or not
-AFU attacks toward Verbove with infantry with no support from anything else
-AFU moved its artillery systems closer to Robotyne – notable there are only western systems like M-777 or M-109 Paladin now – a lot of them destroyed over the last days
-AFU continues build up opposite shore of Kozachi Laheri and Nova Kakhovka, RU is bombarding their collection points

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 4 2023 20:39 utc | 475

Calculating America’s manufacturing time
to replace u.s. armaments sent to kiev
exceeds 100 YEARS.
F16 30 years
Abrams 62 years
Stryker 25 years
Bradley 15 years

Posted by: Merlin | Sep 4 2023 20:42 utc | 477

reply to 233
The curious thing is HOW? We see the arrows intuitively pointing towards Ukraine’s defeat but how does that happen? I ask given the hard line, not giving an inch, crazy a$$, fanatical stance of Ukraine which is repeated by the West.
We can believe that the Ukr. public knows the meat grinder truth of this futile conflict but who knows? They don’t rebel. Zelensky doesn’t get killed. It all goes on. Next up, the sick, the old, the women, And will they fight even if the West stops paying their bills?

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 4 2023 20:46 utc | 479

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 4 2023 19:59 utc | 233
As Black Mountain Analysis said – the war is over after the Nato trained group (c 70k ideologically confused individuals) are gone. These constitute the “elite brigades” AFU is using right now, mainly in Verbove-Robotyne and should be finished in weeks.
After that it’s full ISIS mode for AFU with low combat effectiveness (combat effectiveness basically meaning more people are needed for same task).
Who knows, maybe they bring back 80k people from Poland and manage to muddle through the winter and there will be a 2024 counter-offensive. This time the counter-offensive could start from a longitude north of Zaporozhye.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 4 2023 20:51 utc | 481

While russomaniacs are getting excited about strikes on random silos and oil terminals, the kievite forces actually hit strategic factories in Moscow.
https://nypost.com/2023/09/01/drone-strikes-sets-fire-to-russian-factory-making-microchips-for-missiles-ukraine

Posted by: Kalesh | Sep 4 2023 20:57 utc | 483

Posted by: Kalesh | Sep 4 2023 20:57 utc | 243
Actually they (ukies) “reported” it only, without providing evidence.
The newspaper did not try to proove it with satellite pictures.
It is like reporting
“Now a Levite who lived in a remote area in the hill country of Ephraim took a concubine from Bethlehem in Judah.”
and giving the following source:
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Judges%2019&version=NIV

Posted by: 600w | Sep 4 2023 21:23 utc | 485

Just seen a video, where a Ukrainian man was shot in from of his wife and two children for not resisting conscription. He was dragged out of the car and shot.

Posted by: Peter Schmidt | Sep 4 2023 21:33 utc | 487

Financial Times: “Ukraine cannot win against Russia now, but victory by 2025 is possible”
https://archive.is/2023.09.03-041202/https://www.ft.com/content/be5d133b-e757-4615-881f-256337f05b6c

Ukraine’s current counteroffensive will not throw Russia out — not that anyone expected it to. Nor is it likely to cut the occupation in half before the winter, which might have been one of the more optimistic aims. It has, however, shown how the Russian army can be beaten. Not in 2023, but in 2024 or 2025. Thus the refrain among western allies of supporting Kyiv “for as long as it takes”.

The new goalpost the Western press is shifting to is “victory against Russia in 2025”, they’re admitting that the counteroffensive was a failure and that there won’t be a success before they can scramble together more industry:

The fifth and most important aspect is to accept that this war turns on the defence industrial capacity of the west and Ukraine as the determining factor in military success. More could be provided from stocks, but Ukraine’s campaign now relies on allies ramping up their defence industries. Ammunition from newly expanded production lines will take until at least mid-2024 to arrive in quantity; this should enable a major turning point in Kyiv’s offensive capability.

This is very naive, it relies on:
1. Russia’s industrial capacity staying the same and
2. Ukraine being able to hold off future Russian offensives for two more years
It’s very hard to imagine them pulling this off considering that the Western stockpiles will keep diminishing, specially with the fact that there is no shift to stronger industrial policy in sight coming from the West.

Posted by: qwe | Sep 4 2023 21:40 utc | 489

And will they fight even if the West stops paying their bills?
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 4 2023 20:46 utc | 241
Yes they will. And not enough understanding is shown even on MOA of the utter insanity of the Ukrainian mind, which has always been in many aspects Russophobic in its entire rationale.
Too much emphasis is put on nato and the wests interference but honestly I think Ukraine is more to blame due to its ingrained racism.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Sep 4 2023 21:41 utc | 491

Speaking of the Danube ports, looks like Reni took a shellacking.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/61821

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 4 2023 21:41 utc | 493

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 4 2023 16:17 utc | 212
I’m surprised that destroying one S-400 battery leaves an open corridor, integrated AD is designed so that eventuality should not happen, which is why they are so hard to suppress. It could be because of an EW element neither side want to report, or something else, but a Neptune missile hitting one battery, not even the radar or FC, doubtful.
As for proximity fused 3cm shells, the US have those at an experimental stage, so it will be some time before Russia fields them, if at all. Programmable fuses, using information from a range-finder tend to be for AFV’s firing at static targets in cover (ATGM team etc). Good shooting by the pilot in that clip

Posted by: Milites | Sep 4 2023 21:45 utc | 495

Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 4 2023 15:29 utc | 202
Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 4 2023 15:44 utc | 206
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Sep 4 2023 17:09 utc | 219
Posted by: Roger | Sep 4 2023 18:14 utc | 224
Posted by: too scents | Sep 4 2023 18:23 utc | 225
It’s not an Elon Musk Thread.

Posted by: SCCC | Sep 4 2023 21:48 utc | 497

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 4 2023 20:51 utc | 242
Reversing the process of breaking units up into smaller sub-units, that started in WW1 as a reaction to the developing face of war, will not end well for Ukraine.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 4 2023 22:01 utc | 499