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September 3, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-209
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Armchair Warlord’s Twitter page posts the following analysis…..
The Sword of Damocles – the Russian Army’s force buildup through 2023 and what it means for the Ukrainian War going forward.
One of the biggest – and certainly the most consequential – question marks in the world right now is the current status of the Russian Army. Some particularly dim Western commentators and even senior officials have claimed recently that the Russians have lost half or more of their combat power from the date of their initial invasion in February 2022 and are now weaker than the Ukrainians overall. These claims have so many problems they’re barely worth discussing and should simply be dismissed out of hand. Let’s work through a real analysis instead.
Claims the Russians had a “million-man army” prewar are simply false – that was the total number of people in the entire Russian Armed Forces. The Russian “Army” (between the Army proper, the Naval Infantry, and the VDV) was only some 350,000 personnel, of whom approximately 100,000 were conscripts. This manning level supported some 183 combined-arms battalion task forces under the now-deprecated Battalion Tactical Group organizational scheme. In real terms this meant that for every 1900 soldiers in the overall force the Russians would get one maneuver battalion with appropriate supporting arms.
This can be immediately sanity-checked by comparison to the United States Army. In 2018 the active-duty US Army had 31 Brigade Combat Teams, each of which had four maneuver* battalions for a total of 124 appropriately-supported battalions on an end strength of 483,500. When accounting for the fact that Russian units are about 2/3 the size of their Western counterparts (31 versus 44 tanks in a battalion, for instance), this means that the two armies had close to exactly the same number of effective battalion task forces available and the Russians are about 30% more efficient at converting end strength to combat power. This is to be expected given Russia’s relative lack of logistical, administrative and command overhead without global commitments.
* I am including the BCT’s organic cavalry squadron as a maneuver battalion because it is frequently tasked as such operationally and has the capability to perform maneuver tasks.
Now to the war. The Russians began recruiting volunteers quite early in the war, but more significant in the early stages of the war was industrial mobilization. As early as March 2022 Russian military industry began hiring huge numbers of personnel and ramping up production of war materiel across the board. Part of this was to replace equipment lost in combat but much of it was, I now have reason to believe, the leading edge of a deliberate plan to build out the Russian Army in the coming months. Mobilization of personnel was to come later, first with small-scale recruitment of volunteers over the Spring and Summer of 2022 and then with formal mobilization in Fall 2022.
Russian mobilization came in two waves. First there was an announced increase in the Russian military’s end strength of 137,000 in August 2022, exactly the number of conscripts then in service. This suggests strongly that the 2021-2022 conscript class was simply retained in service for the duration. The second wave was the “partial mobilization” of 300,000 in September 2022, which was subsequently converted into another increase in the Russian Army’s authorized strength. This gives us a current strength of the Russian Army as some 750,000 soldiers, more than double its strength in February 2022 and – highly significantly – with 650,000 instead of 250,000 soldiers deployable as either “contract” or “mobilized” soldiers.
It should be noted that the Russian mobilization of last year was not a “one-time” callup – it was a permanent expansion of the size of their army to be filled with ongoing recruitment efforts, conscription, and mobilization of reservists. This is a force that is being continually filled and which can be expected to be at or near its authorized strength.
Applying our ratio from earlier (1900 troops to generate one battalion task force) we get a post-expansion Russian force of some 395 maneuver battalions with enablers. This is an enormous force that could easily secure Russia’s borders (particularly its now very-hostile western borders) while simultaneously overwhelming the battered Ukrainian military. Should NATO intervene directly, this force would be able to slug it out with any Western expeditionary force that could be realistically deployed into theater.
But Armchair Warlord, you say, the Russians are running out of troops and tanks – all the Twitter blue checks are telling me this! What evidence do you have? Well, I have a few data points in support of my theory.
1. Russia recently withdrew from the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe. The CFE treaty, originally signed in 1990 and adapted in 1999 to post-Cold War realities, sought to place national ceilings on conventional arms stationed in Europe and at first served to place a cap on the amount of hardware the Warsaw Pact could flood across the North German Plain on short notice. Serious Russia observers have long noted that, far from his characterization in the West as an unhinged autocrat, Vladimir Putin is a boring neoliberal with a highly legalistic approach to governance. Although the Russians suspended their participation in the treaty in 2007, their recent denunciation is, I believe, highly significant.
Under the treaty the Russian Federation was allowed to station some 6,350 tanks, 11,280 APCs (including 7,030 IFVs) and 6,315 artillery pieces west of the Urals. A force of some 350 BTG-equivalents deployed west would consist of approximately 4,000 tanks and some 10,000 infantry carriers as well as 6,300 artillery pieces. This strongly suggests to me that the Russians denounced the treaty because some dimension of their force build, likely either artillery pieces or infantry carriers, violated its limitations.
This is, by the way, an enormous army and explains the “all of the above” approach the Russians have taken to procuring war materiel lately. They wouldn’t be simultaneously rolling large numbers of T-90Ms and T-80BVMs off the assembly lines while also doing deep modernizations of their T-62 fleet for use as frontline tanks unless they had a real need for a genuinely enormous tank fleet in the near term. Same story with APCs and artillery.
2. Contrary to what certain pro-Western analysts and officials have asserted, the Russian side of the northeastern Ukrainian border (the “non-active” front line on the prewar border) is packed with troops. What immediately struck me during the abortive Ukrainian raids on Belgorod Oblast earlier this year was the size, speed and ferocity of the Russian counterattack, with multiple Russian battalions quickly mobilizing to throw back the attackers. Russian forces responding to the attacks were often apparently from different brigades or even divisions, with different equipment sets and distinct tactical signs, and they arrived and deployed for combat in large, intact units with fresh equipment.
This same region would be the simplest area for the Russians to concentrate forces in without disturbing logistical efforts for the “active” front line to the east and south, and a large offensive from this direction would quickly carve through the thin screen of Territorial Defense units covering the border, turn the main Ukrainian army deployed in the Donbass, and lead to a rapid collapse of the Ukrainian position east of the Dniper.
3. In June, the Russians announced the actual units they intend to create as a result of this force buildout. The new ground force units announced were one Combined Arms Army (a corps-sized formation), one new Army corps, five new divisions, and 26 new brigades. It is unclear whether these units are entirely separate or whether they are intended to nest within each other matryoshka-style, but this would either be 78 new BTG-equivalents (if the units above brigade level are just new headquarters) or a whopping 177, very much in line with my calculations above (if all of these are complete units).
We haven’t seen this “doom army” yet because the Russians are still pursuing their Fabian strategy of letting the Ukrainians and their NATO sponsors beat themselves bloody against their defensive line in the Donbass. The Russians can now be expected to launch a large-scale offensive at a time, place, and in circumstances of their choosing – given the exhaustion of the AFU in its monthslong offensive the time for “big red arrows” is, I feel, ripening.
It should also be noted that the Russians do not seem to be leaving anything at all to chance. In Zaporozhe, for example, they constructed several defensive lines in a deep, complex scheme in preparation for an offensive they ended up stopping close to the line of contact. I would expect similar thoroughness out of their offensive preparations.
Could it be…..???
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 3 2023 18:29 utc | 101
Armchair Warlord’s Twitter page posts the following analysis…..
The Sword of Damocles – the Russian Army’s force buildup through 2023 and what it means for the Ukrainian War going forward.
One of the biggest – and certainly the most consequential – question marks in the world right now is the current status of the Russian Army. Some particularly dim Western commentators and even senior officials have claimed recently that the Russians have lost half or more of their combat power from the date of their initial invasion in February 2022 and are now weaker than the Ukrainians overall. These claims have so many problems they’re barely worth discussing and should simply be dismissed out of hand. Let’s work through a real analysis instead.
Claims the Russians had a “million-man army” prewar are simply false – that was the total number of people in the entire Russian Armed Forces. The Russian “Army” (between the Army proper, the Naval Infantry, and the VDV) was only some 350,000 personnel, of whom approximately 100,000 were conscripts. This manning level supported some 183 combined-arms battalion task forces under the now-deprecated Battalion Tactical Group organizational scheme. In real terms this meant that for every 1900 soldiers in the overall force the Russians would get one maneuver battalion with appropriate supporting arms.
This can be immediately sanity-checked by comparison to the United States Army. In 2018 the active-duty US Army had 31 Brigade Combat Teams, each of which had four maneuver* battalions for a total of 124 appropriately-supported battalions on an end strength of 483,500. When accounting for the fact that Russian units are about 2/3 the size of their Western counterparts (31 versus 44 tanks in a battalion, for instance), this means that the two armies had close to exactly the same number of effective battalion task forces available and the Russians are about 30% more efficient at converting end strength to combat power. This is to be expected given Russia’s relative lack of logistical, administrative and command overhead without global commitments.
* I am including the BCT’s organic cavalry squadron as a maneuver battalion because it is frequently tasked as such operationally and has the capability to perform maneuver tasks.
Now to the war. The Russians began recruiting volunteers quite early in the war, but more significant in the early stages of the war was industrial mobilization. As early as March 2022 Russian military industry began hiring huge numbers of personnel and ramping up production of war materiel across the board. Part of this was to replace equipment lost in combat but much of it was, I now have reason to believe, the leading edge of a deliberate plan to build out the Russian Army in the coming months. Mobilization of personnel was to come later, first with small-scale recruitment of volunteers over the Spring and Summer of 2022 and then with formal mobilization in Fall 2022.
Russian mobilization came in two waves. First there was an announced increase in the Russian military’s end strength of 137,000 in August 2022, exactly the number of conscripts then in service. This suggests strongly that the 2021-2022 conscript class was simply retained in service for the duration. The second wave was the “partial mobilization” of 300,000 in September 2022, which was subsequently converted into another increase in the Russian Army’s authorized strength. This gives us a current strength of the Russian Army as some 750,000 soldiers, more than double its strength in February 2022 and – highly significantly – with 650,000 instead of 250,000 soldiers deployable as either “contract” or “mobilized” soldiers.
It should be noted that the Russian mobilization of last year was not a “one-time” callup – it was a permanent expansion of the size of their army to be filled with ongoing recruitment efforts, conscription, and mobilization of reservists. This is a force that is being continually filled and which can be expected to be at or near its authorized strength.
Applying our ratio from earlier (1900 troops to generate one battalion task force) we get a post-expansion Russian force of some 395 maneuver battalions with enablers. This is an enormous force that could easily secure Russia’s borders (particularly its now very-hostile western borders) while simultaneously overwhelming the battered Ukrainian military. Should NATO intervene directly, this force would be able to slug it out with any Western expeditionary force that could be realistically deployed into theater.
But Armchair Warlord, you say, the Russians are running out of troops and tanks – all the Twitter blue checks are telling me this! What evidence do you have? Well, I have a few data points in support of my theory.
1. Russia recently withdrew from the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe. The CFE treaty, originally signed in 1990 and adapted in 1999 to post-Cold War realities, sought to place national ceilings on conventional arms stationed in Europe and at first served to place a cap on the amount of hardware the Warsaw Pact could flood across the North German Plain on short notice. Serious Russia observers have long noted that, far from his characterization in the West as an unhinged autocrat, Vladimir Putin is a boring neoliberal with a highly legalistic approach to governance. Although the Russians suspended their participation in the treaty in 2007, their recent denunciation is, I believe, highly significant.
Under the treaty the Russian Federation was allowed to station some 6,350 tanks, 11,280 APCs (including 7,030 IFVs) and 6,315 artillery pieces west of the Urals. A force of some 350 BTG-equivalents deployed west would consist of approximately 4,000 tanks and some 10,000 infantry carriers as well as 6,300 artillery pieces. This strongly suggests to me that the Russians denounced the treaty because some dimension of their force build, likely either artillery pieces or infantry carriers, violated its limitations.
This is, by the way, an enormous army and explains the “all of the above” approach the Russians have taken to procuring war materiel lately. They wouldn’t be simultaneously rolling large numbers of T-90Ms and T-80BVMs off the assembly lines while also doing deep modernizations of their T-62 fleet for use as frontline tanks unless they had a real need for a genuinely enormous tank fleet in the near term. Same story with APCs and artillery.
2. Contrary to what certain pro-Western analysts and officials have asserted, the Russian side of the northeastern Ukrainian border (the “non-active” front line on the prewar border) is packed with troops. What immediately struck me during the abortive Ukrainian raids on Belgorod Oblast earlier this year was the size, speed and ferocity of the Russian counterattack, with multiple Russian battalions quickly mobilizing to throw back the attackers. Russian forces responding to the attacks were often apparently from different brigades or even divisions, with different equipment sets and distinct tactical signs, and they arrived and deployed for combat in large, intact units with fresh equipment.
This same region would be the simplest area for the Russians to concentrate forces in without disturbing logistical efforts for the “active” front line to the east and south, and a large offensive from this direction would quickly carve through the thin screen of Territorial Defense units covering the border, turn the main Ukrainian army deployed in the Donbass, and lead to a rapid collapse of the Ukrainian position east of the Dniper.
3. In June, the Russians announced the actual units they intend to create as a result of this force buildout. The new ground force units announced were one Combined Arms Army (a corps-sized formation), one new Army corps, five new divisions, and 26 new brigades. It is unclear whether these units are entirely separate or whether they are intended to nest within each other matryoshka-style, but this would either be 78 new BTG-equivalents (if the units above brigade level are just new headquarters) or a whopping 177, very much in line with my calculations above (if all of these are complete units).
We haven’t seen this “doom army” yet because the Russians are still pursuing their Fabian strategy of letting the Ukrainians and their NATO sponsors beat themselves bloody against their defensive line in the Donbass. The Russians can now be expected to launch a large-scale offensive at a time, place, and in circumstances of their choosing – given the exhaustion of the AFU in its monthslong offensive the time for “big red arrows” is, I feel, ripening.
It should also be noted that the Russians do not seem to be leaving anything at all to chance. In Zaporozhe, for example, they constructed several defensive lines in a deep, complex scheme in preparation for an offensive they ended up stopping close to the line of contact. I would expect similar thoroughness out of their offensive preparations.
Could it be…..???
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 3 2023 18:29 utc | 102
8..and subsequent posters re trains…pretty sure about 3-4 ammo trains military supplies have suffered in about last 5 months….usually parked in sidings marshalling yards. Maybe others we do not know about?
Posted by: Jo | Sep 3 2023 18:31 utc | 103
8..and subsequent posters re trains…pretty sure about 3-4 ammo trains military supplies have suffered in about last 5 months….usually parked in sidings marshalling yards. Maybe others we do not know about?
Posted by: Jo | Sep 3 2023 18:31 utc | 104
publicdisorder | Sep 3 2023 17:36 utc | 43
“they are using already their fancy super duper AI intel stuff”
If it was 1945, and you wanted to plot an aerial attack on Pskov, you’d need contour maps of large areas, locations of all radar stations, times and routes of surveillance flights, missile and AA batteries, then several hundred boffins with slide rules working out best route/time combo.
Now AI can do this in minutes, and I imagine the US military have tons of it. AI is perhaps the one area where the US have a big lead. Unlike the Raytheons etc, the actual chips are produced in Taiwan using state-of-art raw materials and machines, so the mark-ups are (while large) not at US levels.
Russia and China need IMHO to put serious effort into catching up. While China may not be able to produce TSMC quality, quantity is also important in AI. Slower chips? More and more of them in parallel!
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Sep 3 2023 18:32 utc | 105
publicdisorder | Sep 3 2023 17:36 utc | 43
“they are using already their fancy super duper AI intel stuff”
If it was 1945, and you wanted to plot an aerial attack on Pskov, you’d need contour maps of large areas, locations of all radar stations, times and routes of surveillance flights, missile and AA batteries, then several hundred boffins with slide rules working out best route/time combo.
Now AI can do this in minutes, and I imagine the US military have tons of it. AI is perhaps the one area where the US have a big lead. Unlike the Raytheons etc, the actual chips are produced in Taiwan using state-of-art raw materials and machines, so the mark-ups are (while large) not at US levels.
Russia and China need IMHO to put serious effort into catching up. While China may not be able to produce TSMC quality, quantity is also important in AI. Slower chips? More and more of them in parallel!
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Sep 3 2023 18:32 utc | 106
Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 3 2023 15:42 utc | 24
Yes, you have seen the US equivalent, but NAFO Nazi fairies would rather forget about it. It is called the “Switchblade”.
#######################
I had forgotten about them because they didn’t seem effective but did some poking around.
Switchblade 300 is a toy. The Lancet-1 wasn’t really much different. That’s the device that ‘failed’.
Switchblade 600 is an equivalent.
It kind of validates my concerns in the medium term but shows Russia still currently has the lead, especially in production.
Best I can tell UA got around 10 Switchblade 600 and 2,000 Switchblade 300. Pricing on the 600 appears to be around $200K vs maybe $35K on the Lancet-3. Hard to tell because nobody is giving clear pricing tied to specific models and, more importantly, we’d need cost-to-replicate info.
If you assume that Russia has fielded around 1,500 (one for every tank) Lancet-3s and you count the videos of kills (around 10-20), it probably means that 100 shots and 1-in-10 captured on video. So, we don’t know if the 600 works because there haven’t been enough tests.
But the US can clearly field thousands of these in a year. The maker claims they can make 6K/month. I am sure the Chinese are walking all this and taking notes.
I’m still expecting the UA to collapse but I don’t believe time is on Russia’s side forever.
Posted by: je | Sep 3 2023 18:42 utc | 107
Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 3 2023 15:42 utc | 24
Yes, you have seen the US equivalent, but NAFO Nazi fairies would rather forget about it. It is called the “Switchblade”.
#######################
I had forgotten about them because they didn’t seem effective but did some poking around.
Switchblade 300 is a toy. The Lancet-1 wasn’t really much different. That’s the device that ‘failed’.
Switchblade 600 is an equivalent.
It kind of validates my concerns in the medium term but shows Russia still currently has the lead, especially in production.
Best I can tell UA got around 10 Switchblade 600 and 2,000 Switchblade 300. Pricing on the 600 appears to be around $200K vs maybe $35K on the Lancet-3. Hard to tell because nobody is giving clear pricing tied to specific models and, more importantly, we’d need cost-to-replicate info.
If you assume that Russia has fielded around 1,500 (one for every tank) Lancet-3s and you count the videos of kills (around 10-20), it probably means that 100 shots and 1-in-10 captured on video. So, we don’t know if the 600 works because there haven’t been enough tests.
But the US can clearly field thousands of these in a year. The maker claims they can make 6K/month. I am sure the Chinese are walking all this and taking notes.
I’m still expecting the UA to collapse but I don’t believe time is on Russia’s side forever.
Posted by: je | Sep 3 2023 18:42 utc | 108
Some drone reportedly hit a government building in Kurchatov.
The kievite forces also tried to hit a nuclear power plant.
Posted by: Izuna Uchiha | Sep 3 2023 18:49 utc | 109
Some drone reportedly hit a government building in Kurchatov.
The kievite forces also tried to hit a nuclear power plant.
Posted by: Izuna Uchiha | Sep 3 2023 18:49 utc | 110
1 & 39
Rail lines are trivially easy targets. Not necessary to hit moving trains. The location of the trackage is well known and it does not move around. Send an FAB-9000 to the railyard, make a nice big crater. Weeks or months to repair and the repair crews are also a target. The Geran drones are plenty big enough to take out a switch or a section of track, small enough to be perfectly stealthy, also cheap and very long range (originally deigned to strike Israel from Iran). Send a hundred of those in a volley, the repair crews will scramble over the landscape and never complete.
Trackage is not being bombed because Russia has chosen not to. If the decision is made there is no technical problem
Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 3 2023 18:57 utc | 111
1 & 39
Rail lines are trivially easy targets. Not necessary to hit moving trains. The location of the trackage is well known and it does not move around. Send an FAB-9000 to the railyard, make a nice big crater. Weeks or months to repair and the repair crews are also a target. The Geran drones are plenty big enough to take out a switch or a section of track, small enough to be perfectly stealthy, also cheap and very long range (originally deigned to strike Israel from Iran). Send a hundred of those in a volley, the repair crews will scramble over the landscape and never complete.
Trackage is not being bombed because Russia has chosen not to. If the decision is made there is no technical problem
Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 3 2023 18:57 utc | 112
Russia is daily attacked, while Russian media and russomaniacs in social networks got excited when some oil depot in Reni got destroyed, like that’s a big deal… I guess everything is going according to plan.
Posted by: La Fleur Verte | Sep 3 2023 18:58 utc | 113
Russia is daily attacked, while Russian media and russomaniacs in social networks got excited when some oil depot in Reni got destroyed, like that’s a big deal… I guess everything is going according to plan.
Posted by: La Fleur Verte | Sep 3 2023 18:58 utc | 114
In regards to the cardboard drones and how to stop them. The Australian company that makes them has their factory at 60 Bertie St Port Melbourne. If it is OK for the Australian government to provide Bushmasters, artillery shells and drones that target Russian civilian targets then perhaps that factory is a legitimate target? Not hard to buy a generic drone and fly it from nearby to crash into that factory. Might wake the stupid public up to the foolish actions of the government provoking the bear.
As for how durable cardboard is to wet weather I would point out that UHT milk does just fine in cartons made of thin cardboard. Ditto waxed fruit boxes. Though perhaps the thin plastic film on the milk cartons or the wax on the fruit boxes might reduce how invisible cardboard is to normal detection methods.
Posted by: Neal | Sep 3 2023 18:58 utc | 115
In regards to the cardboard drones and how to stop them. The Australian company that makes them has their factory at 60 Bertie St Port Melbourne. If it is OK for the Australian government to provide Bushmasters, artillery shells and drones that target Russian civilian targets then perhaps that factory is a legitimate target? Not hard to buy a generic drone and fly it from nearby to crash into that factory. Might wake the stupid public up to the foolish actions of the government provoking the bear.
As for how durable cardboard is to wet weather I would point out that UHT milk does just fine in cartons made of thin cardboard. Ditto waxed fruit boxes. Though perhaps the thin plastic film on the milk cartons or the wax on the fruit boxes might reduce how invisible cardboard is to normal detection methods.
Posted by: Neal | Sep 3 2023 18:58 utc | 116
Posted by: jpc | Sep 3 2023 19:07 utc | 117
Posted by: jpc | Sep 3 2023 19:07 utc | 118
From my post at #59.
It looks like we are totally missing out on the situation on the ground.
Posted by: jpc | Sep 3 2023 19:09 utc | 119
From my post at #59.
It looks like we are totally missing out on the situation on the ground.
Posted by: jpc | Sep 3 2023 19:09 utc | 120
Posted by: jpc | Sep 3 2023 19:09 utc | 60
I mean, Moon of Alabama is basically an echo chamber.
Posted by: Alina | Sep 3 2023 19:16 utc | 121
Posted by: jpc | Sep 3 2023 19:09 utc | 60
I mean, Moon of Alabama is basically an echo chamber.
Posted by: Alina | Sep 3 2023 19:16 utc | 122
If Russia supplies an app to protesters next time a suburb of Paris or London goes up in flames, we will not have a leg to stand on.
Posted by: Passerby | Sep 3 2023 17:33 utc | 40
##########
Woe be unto the West if Russia decides to engage in open asymmetric warfare CIA style.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 19:19 utc | 123
If Russia supplies an app to protesters next time a suburb of Paris or London goes up in flames, we will not have a leg to stand on.
Posted by: Passerby | Sep 3 2023 17:33 utc | 40
##########
Woe be unto the West if Russia decides to engage in open asymmetric warfare CIA style.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 19:19 utc | 124
A poster suggested that Russia should take out the large transformers in Ukraine. I’d suggest a better target is the large transformers in the USA, especially the ones near the factories making supplies for the military. Perhaps some might recall that several transformers in America were damaged by bullets fired into them. The shooter/ were never caught. They don’t have much in the way of spare transformers and replacements would likely take a year and be manufactured in China as the US now has not much in the way of transformer manufacturers.
Not hard to pay by intermediaries some gang bangers from south of the border to cross into the US and destroy dozens of those transformers. No proof of who financed it and they could only hazard to guess maybe Russia or then again maybe China. Payback for Nordstream or payback for tech sanctions on China.
Posted by: Neal | Sep 3 2023 19:21 utc | 125
A poster suggested that Russia should take out the large transformers in Ukraine. I’d suggest a better target is the large transformers in the USA, especially the ones near the factories making supplies for the military. Perhaps some might recall that several transformers in America were damaged by bullets fired into them. The shooter/ were never caught. They don’t have much in the way of spare transformers and replacements would likely take a year and be manufactured in China as the US now has not much in the way of transformer manufacturers.
Not hard to pay by intermediaries some gang bangers from south of the border to cross into the US and destroy dozens of those transformers. No proof of who financed it and they could only hazard to guess maybe Russia or then again maybe China. Payback for Nordstream or payback for tech sanctions on China.
Posted by: Neal | Sep 3 2023 19:21 utc | 126
Re the cardboard drones, is there anyone here who wouldn’t love to see a balsa wood drone? Maybe even powered by a big rubber band…
Posted by: Boris Badenov | Sep 3 2023 19:22 utc | 127
Re the cardboard drones, is there anyone here who wouldn’t love to see a balsa wood drone? Maybe even powered by a big rubber band…
Posted by: Boris Badenov | Sep 3 2023 19:22 utc | 128
Just skimmed this whole latest “open thread” to find typical 1000s of words devoid of information. Just uninformed opinions, mindless nattering, bickering, and general cluelessness, guided by the emissions of a few cottage industry bloviators, for example Duran and Ritter, who think they are the reincarnation of Hunter Thompson, but lack any panache. Re wonks like Mearsheimer, who survey the MSM and recalculate found talking points into question-begging under a word-of-the-day theme such as “ABCs OF BLITZKRIEG”, this shit just adds up to noise.
The topical posts here are somewhat more informative in that these at least survey some domain of war news and offer opinions in context.
Regarding picking a side (Russia) and having effectively no understanding of the dynamics, you’ve got a 50/50 chance of being right. Great odds! Just no idea why anyone thinks this level cheerleading is meaningful except maybe in some championship of arm-chair prognostication.
Why are there no ideas here?
Dear editor(s), it might be interesting to go back to threads from early days of invasion and see what the track record of opinion has been against history. Does what gets blathered here end up having any connection to manifest reality?
Or is this just a pumping station for propaganda? Note that you don’t have to agree with propaganda to pump it.
But study the propaganda as you may, the great projects will keep rolling, irreducible to matters of life and limb because the people who run these projects make no sacrifices and only get involved because they stand to gain. The degree of administrative detachment of policy making (especially in the west) to the human cost more than notes in the margins: the people sponsoring the war truly are elites, cynically pursuing their vague notions of an ideal (“freedumb”) at the cost of ordinary lives. Their detachment and M.O. is everyday standard operating procedure for their class; it’s how they think and relate about everything. This is why Zelensky is always garbed in olive drab: to remind himself that what he decides has some contact with actual lives otherwise unknown to the political theaters through which scurries. Whether people live or die, the administrators ensure the concept of Ukraine lives on. It’s impossible for this to change as long as the dissent are merely bloggy mcblogsters in their rec rooms mediating forgone conclusions for Patreon.
Posted by: Arrnon | Sep 3 2023 19:33 utc | 129
Just skimmed this whole latest “open thread” to find typical 1000s of words devoid of information. Just uninformed opinions, mindless nattering, bickering, and general cluelessness, guided by the emissions of a few cottage industry bloviators, for example Duran and Ritter, who think they are the reincarnation of Hunter Thompson, but lack any panache. Re wonks like Mearsheimer, who survey the MSM and recalculate found talking points into question-begging under a word-of-the-day theme such as “ABCs OF BLITZKRIEG”, this shit just adds up to noise.
The topical posts here are somewhat more informative in that these at least survey some domain of war news and offer opinions in context.
Regarding picking a side (Russia) and having effectively no understanding of the dynamics, you’ve got a 50/50 chance of being right. Great odds! Just no idea why anyone thinks this level cheerleading is meaningful except maybe in some championship of arm-chair prognostication.
Why are there no ideas here?
Dear editor(s), it might be interesting to go back to threads from early days of invasion and see what the track record of opinion has been against history. Does what gets blathered here end up having any connection to manifest reality?
Or is this just a pumping station for propaganda? Note that you don’t have to agree with propaganda to pump it.
But study the propaganda as you may, the great projects will keep rolling, irreducible to matters of life and limb because the people who run these projects make no sacrifices and only get involved because they stand to gain. The degree of administrative detachment of policy making (especially in the west) to the human cost more than notes in the margins: the people sponsoring the war truly are elites, cynically pursuing their vague notions of an ideal (“freedumb”) at the cost of ordinary lives. Their detachment and M.O. is everyday standard operating procedure for their class; it’s how they think and relate about everything. This is why Zelensky is always garbed in olive drab: to remind himself that what he decides has some contact with actual lives otherwise unknown to the political theaters through which scurries. Whether people live or die, the administrators ensure the concept of Ukraine lives on. It’s impossible for this to change as long as the dissent are merely bloggy mcblogsters in their rec rooms mediating forgone conclusions for Patreon.
Posted by: Arrnon | Sep 3 2023 19:33 utc | 130
first rule never ever underestimate your enemy, if you really think VSA spending their ridiculous high military budget for useless nonsense then your wrong. they are using already their fancy super duper AI intel stuff, that we haven’t seen Lancet equivalents on the ground idk, maybe VSA just don’t want to reveal their fancy high-tech stuff , we will see..
Posted by: publicdisorder | Sep 3 2023 17:36 utc | 43
###########
Yes, it’s like Trump’s 20th-dimensional election chess. TRUST THE PLAN! LOL
The US may have stuff in reserve but they haven’t fought a peer conflict since WW2, and even then the Russians are the ones who won that war. Right now, Russia is blooding its junior officers, revising its tactics, and having its nation on a war footing, while they are building its economic coalition at the expense of the West.
The thing about WunderWaffe is that it is like making threats. At one point, someone calls your bluff. And if your schtick is all red-faced bluster and insults, then it’s going to end badly. Americans believe a lot of the crap they are fed about their government, the world, technology, and war, but most people in the Global South and in Russia/China do not. That BS is strictly for domestic consumption to an audience of naive people suffering from historic levels of mental illness, IMO.
I doubt the MIC has been developing the next generation of amazing warfare tech for a simple reason. Incentives always tell us the true story, and the MIC has captured Congress, and its incentives are to continue to fail for profit until the host is dead. There is so little accountability in the West in particular and America has the least accountability.
Much like democracy in the West, many of these “institutions” are in terminal decline and the only chance of saving the system is for those institutions and beliefs to die, and be wholly replaced by fresh ones. No miracle politician is going to reform the bureaucracy or the MIC. Those leeches will kill the host before they allow the host to shake them off like the fleas and ticks that they are.
Btw, I am not underestimating anyone. I just don’t fear predators that have had their claws and fangs removed. What are they going to do? Gum and lick me to death? Ewww…
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 19:34 utc | 131
first rule never ever underestimate your enemy, if you really think VSA spending their ridiculous high military budget for useless nonsense then your wrong. they are using already their fancy super duper AI intel stuff, that we haven’t seen Lancet equivalents on the ground idk, maybe VSA just don’t want to reveal their fancy high-tech stuff , we will see..
Posted by: publicdisorder | Sep 3 2023 17:36 utc | 43
###########
Yes, it’s like Trump’s 20th-dimensional election chess. TRUST THE PLAN! LOL
The US may have stuff in reserve but they haven’t fought a peer conflict since WW2, and even then the Russians are the ones who won that war. Right now, Russia is blooding its junior officers, revising its tactics, and having its nation on a war footing, while they are building its economic coalition at the expense of the West.
The thing about WunderWaffe is that it is like making threats. At one point, someone calls your bluff. And if your schtick is all red-faced bluster and insults, then it’s going to end badly. Americans believe a lot of the crap they are fed about their government, the world, technology, and war, but most people in the Global South and in Russia/China do not. That BS is strictly for domestic consumption to an audience of naive people suffering from historic levels of mental illness, IMO.
I doubt the MIC has been developing the next generation of amazing warfare tech for a simple reason. Incentives always tell us the true story, and the MIC has captured Congress, and its incentives are to continue to fail for profit until the host is dead. There is so little accountability in the West in particular and America has the least accountability.
Much like democracy in the West, many of these “institutions” are in terminal decline and the only chance of saving the system is for those institutions and beliefs to die, and be wholly replaced by fresh ones. No miracle politician is going to reform the bureaucracy or the MIC. Those leeches will kill the host before they allow the host to shake them off like the fleas and ticks that they are.
Btw, I am not underestimating anyone. I just don’t fear predators that have had their claws and fangs removed. What are they going to do? Gum and lick me to death? Ewww…
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 19:34 utc | 132
Dima says that Ukraine is still fiercely attacking.
Russians do the best they can, but Russians are forced to step back near Bahmut.
Posted by: simplex | Sep 3 2023 19:39 utc | 133
Dima says that Ukraine is still fiercely attacking.
Russians do the best they can, but Russians are forced to step back near Bahmut.
Posted by: simplex | Sep 3 2023 19:39 utc | 134
As someone who has been using AI in work for most of this year, I can say one thing about it. AI is not magic. It is only as good as the input data, and the assumptions programmed into the algorithm.
Does anyone trust the West to program their AI not to have a heavy ideological bias? The same bias that produces these fairy Generals and copium-filled articles and news segments.
That is why you can go to any language or image AI and give it the exact instructions and get radically different outputs, even if you repeat the experiment dozens of iterations.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 19:40 utc | 135
As someone who has been using AI in work for most of this year, I can say one thing about it. AI is not magic. It is only as good as the input data, and the assumptions programmed into the algorithm.
Does anyone trust the West to program their AI not to have a heavy ideological bias? The same bias that produces these fairy Generals and copium-filled articles and news segments.
That is why you can go to any language or image AI and give it the exact instructions and get radically different outputs, even if you repeat the experiment dozens of iterations.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 19:40 utc | 136
It looks like we are totally missing out on the situation on the ground.
Posted by: jpc | Sep 3 2023 19:09 utc | 60
###########
As reported in the Guardian, in an article that is long on conjecture and short on details.
Maybe they are right. Will anyone hold the Guardian accountable in two weeks if they are wrong?
I have read so much propaganda from both sides that I take everything with a ton of salt.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 19:47 utc | 137
It looks like we are totally missing out on the situation on the ground.
Posted by: jpc | Sep 3 2023 19:09 utc | 60
###########
As reported in the Guardian, in an article that is long on conjecture and short on details.
Maybe they are right. Will anyone hold the Guardian accountable in two weeks if they are wrong?
I have read so much propaganda from both sides that I take everything with a ton of salt.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 19:47 utc | 138
The recent Duran video had some interesting insights to the counter-offensive narrative and drone strikes in Russia.
Apparently the estimate closest to the truth is that Russia has coolly absorbed the AFU counter-offensive. Mark Milley and others in the west have jumped the gun proclaiming that Ukraine has now breached the “Surovikin line” and on their way to Melitopol.
In reality, the west is extremely irritated by the fact that the counter-offensive is a goner. Scholz, Macron and the White House have even begun to make phone calls to the Kremlin but no one is picking up the phone. There are even some ex Obama-officials in Moscow trying to have “negotiations”. Apparently they are not going anywhere, and Kremlin denies that any of these negotiations even occur.
Consequentially, Nato is irritated and has begun launching drones to Russia. The critical military targets are being hardened and it is very hard for Nato/Kiev to hit the important targets. However, they can hit secondary targets, but even as that becomes too hard, they might decide to start hitting civilian targets. Kremlin can absorb the hits on military targets, but if there are casualty events with AFU drones on civilians, the political pressure may start increasing on the RU administration. This is definitely something they don’t want to do.
And the post of “Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 3 2023 18:29 utc | 51” is very revealing of the overall strategy. Contrary to western media, RU army started this conflict ill-prepared, and AFU army started the conflict in best shape they had ever been.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 3 2023 19:48 utc | 139
The recent Duran video had some interesting insights to the counter-offensive narrative and drone strikes in Russia.
Apparently the estimate closest to the truth is that Russia has coolly absorbed the AFU counter-offensive. Mark Milley and others in the west have jumped the gun proclaiming that Ukraine has now breached the “Surovikin line” and on their way to Melitopol.
In reality, the west is extremely irritated by the fact that the counter-offensive is a goner. Scholz, Macron and the White House have even begun to make phone calls to the Kremlin but no one is picking up the phone. There are even some ex Obama-officials in Moscow trying to have “negotiations”. Apparently they are not going anywhere, and Kremlin denies that any of these negotiations even occur.
Consequentially, Nato is irritated and has begun launching drones to Russia. The critical military targets are being hardened and it is very hard for Nato/Kiev to hit the important targets. However, they can hit secondary targets, but even as that becomes too hard, they might decide to start hitting civilian targets. Kremlin can absorb the hits on military targets, but if there are casualty events with AFU drones on civilians, the political pressure may start increasing on the RU administration. This is definitely something they don’t want to do.
And the post of “Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 3 2023 18:29 utc | 51” is very revealing of the overall strategy. Contrary to western media, RU army started this conflict ill-prepared, and AFU army started the conflict in best shape they had ever been.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 3 2023 19:48 utc | 140
Posted by: Mary | Sep 3 2023 17:11 utc | 34
Not the west, obviously, but Ukrainian sinking of Moskva immediately comes to mind
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Sep 3 2023 17:19 utc | 38
Strategically & tactically irrelevant.
Posted by: Mary | Sep 3 2023 19:48 utc | 141
Posted by: Mary | Sep 3 2023 17:11 utc | 34
Not the west, obviously, but Ukrainian sinking of Moskva immediately comes to mind
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Sep 3 2023 17:19 utc | 38
Strategically & tactically irrelevant.
Posted by: Mary | Sep 3 2023 19:48 utc | 142
Posted by: jpc | Sep 3 2023 19:07 utc | 59
First, at what cost?
Second, Iirc, simplicius recently posted a lovely, topographic map of Robotyne with tweeted message of how he loves invading valleys, or words to that effect.
Ukrs are now on low ground, surrounded by Russians on 3 sides on top of hills/mountainsides.
Can you spell “firebag?”
How about “cauldron?”
Posted by: Mary | Sep 3 2023 19:54 utc | 143
Posted by: jpc | Sep 3 2023 19:07 utc | 59
First, at what cost?
Second, Iirc, simplicius recently posted a lovely, topographic map of Robotyne with tweeted message of how he loves invading valleys, or words to that effect.
Ukrs are now on low ground, surrounded by Russians on 3 sides on top of hills/mountainsides.
Can you spell “firebag?”
How about “cauldron?”
Posted by: Mary | Sep 3 2023 19:54 utc | 144
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 3 2023 18:29 utc | 51
More than possible, probable for the following reasons
a) Few expect it, talking about the war dragging through 2024, so element an of surprise maintained.
b) Ukraine have committed their two strategic reserve corps to reinforce the faltering offensive and restore momentum. Both units have suffered severe attrition in personnel and equipment. Also, an attack whilst Ukraine is still threshing around in her own offensive means:
i) A significant portion of units needed to counter such a move (mechanised)are already committed, therefore hard to redeploy
ii) Units in those offensive axes are only able to conduct hasty field defences and have not had time to construct more substantial fortifications and obstacle belts.
c) The shock effect of massive armoured formations on green units, or ones used to small engagements cannot be over-estimated. This is the multiplied if rear area units are attacked and artillery support disrupted.
d) Multiple axes to choose, each offering different opportunities, also a perfect opportunity for strategic relocation (perhaps a reason for the Pskov attack)
e) Largest disparity between average tactical proficiency between both sides, numbers of combatants favour Russia now.
f) Perfect opportunity to reveal new platforms with new capabilities, genuine ‘game changers’ whose short window of advantage is maximised, as Ukrainian forces will not have time to develop large scale counters.
g) Maximum political impact for Putin, blindsiding any critics who might try to accuse him of dithering, especially effective if the drone mini-blitz escalates. Decisive action might also shield the Kremlin for the sharp increase in friendly casualties an offensive might cause
This does not mean this will happen, given the strategic restrictors invisible to any open-source analyst, but the odds of a decisive ‘big arrow’ solution I think have narrowed.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 3 2023 19:55 utc | 145
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 3 2023 18:29 utc | 51
More than possible, probable for the following reasons
a) Few expect it, talking about the war dragging through 2024, so element an of surprise maintained.
b) Ukraine have committed their two strategic reserve corps to reinforce the faltering offensive and restore momentum. Both units have suffered severe attrition in personnel and equipment. Also, an attack whilst Ukraine is still threshing around in her own offensive means:
i) A significant portion of units needed to counter such a move (mechanised)are already committed, therefore hard to redeploy
ii) Units in those offensive axes are only able to conduct hasty field defences and have not had time to construct more substantial fortifications and obstacle belts.
c) The shock effect of massive armoured formations on green units, or ones used to small engagements cannot be over-estimated. This is the multiplied if rear area units are attacked and artillery support disrupted.
d) Multiple axes to choose, each offering different opportunities, also a perfect opportunity for strategic relocation (perhaps a reason for the Pskov attack)
e) Largest disparity between average tactical proficiency between both sides, numbers of combatants favour Russia now.
f) Perfect opportunity to reveal new platforms with new capabilities, genuine ‘game changers’ whose short window of advantage is maximised, as Ukrainian forces will not have time to develop large scale counters.
g) Maximum political impact for Putin, blindsiding any critics who might try to accuse him of dithering, especially effective if the drone mini-blitz escalates. Decisive action might also shield the Kremlin for the sharp increase in friendly casualties an offensive might cause
This does not mean this will happen, given the strategic restrictors invisible to any open-source analyst, but the odds of a decisive ‘big arrow’ solution I think have narrowed.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 3 2023 19:55 utc | 146
Sinking a cruiser wouldn’t be ‘strategically and tactically irrelevant’.
Y’all delusional.
Posted by: Sun of York | Sep 3 2023 19:56 utc | 147
Sinking a cruiser wouldn’t be ‘strategically and tactically irrelevant’.
Y’all delusional.
Posted by: Sun of York | Sep 3 2023 19:56 utc | 148
Military summary update:
AFU controls large portion of Kleschevka. RU still holds a bridgehead in the SE portion of that village. Apparently RU has started reducing the Kleschevka village.
AFU also tries to attack at Andryivka but it is held by RU.
AFU has made some landing preparation opposite to Nova Kakhovka and RU has bombarded those heavily with all weapons.
AFU activity has significantly reduced around Robotyne. AFU 46th brigade (the one of two “elite brigades” committed to this breakthrough) released a video of bad condititons, apparently they are stationed on the bridgehead between Novopokryvka and Vodiane. Dima made a remark that every time AFU soldiers release a video about bad situation, so far it has led to the losing of positions within a few weeks time.
RU is still continuing their offensive operation around Kupyansk.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 3 2023 20:13 utc | 149
Military summary update:
AFU controls large portion of Kleschevka. RU still holds a bridgehead in the SE portion of that village. Apparently RU has started reducing the Kleschevka village.
AFU also tries to attack at Andryivka but it is held by RU.
AFU has made some landing preparation opposite to Nova Kakhovka and RU has bombarded those heavily with all weapons.
AFU activity has significantly reduced around Robotyne. AFU 46th brigade (the one of two “elite brigades” committed to this breakthrough) released a video of bad condititons, apparently they are stationed on the bridgehead between Novopokryvka and Vodiane. Dima made a remark that every time AFU soldiers release a video about bad situation, so far it has led to the losing of positions within a few weeks time.
RU is still continuing their offensive operation around Kupyansk.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 3 2023 20:13 utc | 150
I mean, Moon of Alabama is basically an echo chamber.
Posted by: Alina | Sep 3 2023 19:16 utc | 61
There’s actually quite a diverse collection of opinions at MOA. Why’d you show up today?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 3 2023 20:19 utc | 151
I mean, Moon of Alabama is basically an echo chamber.
Posted by: Alina | Sep 3 2023 19:16 utc | 61
There’s actually quite a diverse collection of opinions at MOA. Why’d you show up today?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 3 2023 20:19 utc | 152
What it comes down too is the question, why does Russia continue to fight and it’s soldiers die when they could have at any time had they chosen, won this conflict outright.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Sep 3 2023 14:27 utc | 7
————————————————————
That conversation has been held in these pages at great length. You are forgetful or have paid insufficient attention to the rather serious and ongoing dialog, b’s attempts to keep you informed notwithstanding.
What were the stated Russian objectives in December 2021? Does the word security guarantees ring a bell?
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 3 2023 20:31 utc | 153
What it comes down too is the question, why does Russia continue to fight and it’s soldiers die when they could have at any time had they chosen, won this conflict outright.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Sep 3 2023 14:27 utc | 7
————————————————————
That conversation has been held in these pages at great length. You are forgetful or have paid insufficient attention to the rather serious and ongoing dialog, b’s attempts to keep you informed notwithstanding.
What were the stated Russian objectives in December 2021? Does the word security guarantees ring a bell?
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 3 2023 20:31 utc | 154
MoA an echo chamber?
Pretty sure this echo chamber troll has quit, been reassigned or fired. Hasn’t been around for awhile now.
To be fair, his/her/it efforts at the bar was below average to poor.
I wonder if 9 out of 10 people concludes 2+2=4 if they are just echoing each other?
Russia will comprehensively defeat NATO. US hegemony is finished.
Posted by: Suresh | Sep 3 2023 20:57 utc | 155
MoA an echo chamber?
Pretty sure this echo chamber troll has quit, been reassigned or fired. Hasn’t been around for awhile now.
To be fair, his/her/it efforts at the bar was below average to poor.
I wonder if 9 out of 10 people concludes 2+2=4 if they are just echoing each other?
Russia will comprehensively defeat NATO. US hegemony is finished.
Posted by: Suresh | Sep 3 2023 20:57 utc | 156
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 16:38 utc | 28
exactly, treating prigozhin as some kind of patriot is ridiculous. there’s just been a concern troll flood lately.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 3 2023 21:00 utc | 157
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 16:38 utc | 28
exactly, treating prigozhin as some kind of patriot is ridiculous. there’s just been a concern troll flood lately.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 3 2023 21:00 utc | 158
Both sides in this conflict (Russia/Ukraine + western sponsors) have been using it as a laboratory for military tech and strategy. Neither side uses aircraft over the contact line, limiting air support to standoff weapons/attacks and support behind the front. This despite Russian superiority in AD and air capability because of the threat from MANPADs and surveillance resources that can track aircraft movements in real time. I don’t believe either side expected this situation at the start…
Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 3 2023 17:35 utc | 42
If Ukrainian AD has been attritted to the extent that has been claimed, I wonder why Russia has not been using high altitude bombers to carpet bomb Ukrainian positions at the front. These bombers fly above the range of manpads. My assumption is that Ukraine still has enough S300’s around to pose a threat, which is why the Russian AF is still launching FAB’s from behind the lines. Russia has a bunch of gravity bombs, and these would be the most effective at reducing Ukrainian formations.
Posted by: Mike R | Sep 3 2023 21:16 utc | 159
Both sides in this conflict (Russia/Ukraine + western sponsors) have been using it as a laboratory for military tech and strategy. Neither side uses aircraft over the contact line, limiting air support to standoff weapons/attacks and support behind the front. This despite Russian superiority in AD and air capability because of the threat from MANPADs and surveillance resources that can track aircraft movements in real time. I don’t believe either side expected this situation at the start…
Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 3 2023 17:35 utc | 42
If Ukrainian AD has been attritted to the extent that has been claimed, I wonder why Russia has not been using high altitude bombers to carpet bomb Ukrainian positions at the front. These bombers fly above the range of manpads. My assumption is that Ukraine still has enough S300’s around to pose a threat, which is why the Russian AF is still launching FAB’s from behind the lines. Russia has a bunch of gravity bombs, and these would be the most effective at reducing Ukrainian formations.
Posted by: Mike R | Sep 3 2023 21:16 utc | 160
Who benefits from a frozen conflict? Well, sure, US oligarchs. They profit whatever happens. But further to that, it’s telling to see the same commentators who realise that the US wants to move on to China, seemingly unable to process why it is that Russia is slow-walking the process (aside from a need to minimise casualties), indeed, while they practically beg for Russia to step things up. It becomes obvious that a slow progression from Russia also serves the needs of their most important partner in their efforts to prepare themselves for a possible coming conflict (although any rational person could see that the time when the US could prevail in that conflict has long ago passed).
So the speed at which Russia progresses the conflict serves multiple different needs simultaneously, and they’ll likely move when they’re (all) ready. It may take some time yet.
Posted by: tspoon | Sep 3 2023 21:21 utc | 161
Who benefits from a frozen conflict? Well, sure, US oligarchs. They profit whatever happens. But further to that, it’s telling to see the same commentators who realise that the US wants to move on to China, seemingly unable to process why it is that Russia is slow-walking the process (aside from a need to minimise casualties), indeed, while they practically beg for Russia to step things up. It becomes obvious that a slow progression from Russia also serves the needs of their most important partner in their efforts to prepare themselves for a possible coming conflict (although any rational person could see that the time when the US could prevail in that conflict has long ago passed).
So the speed at which Russia progresses the conflict serves multiple different needs simultaneously, and they’ll likely move when they’re (all) ready. It may take some time yet.
Posted by: tspoon | Sep 3 2023 21:21 utc | 162
@JustAMaverick – @7
“(..;) The reason this war has gone on as long as it has, and will continue into the foreseeable future with so much suffering, blood and death, is that there is simply too much money to be made on all sides by continuing. It always comes down to money and this war is no different. ”
Indeed, same feeling here even if I would add -or not forget- the real and political war USA/NATO* against Russia (*which includes the “hidden” war of the USA against Europe)
The “novelty” is that we now have two opposing capitalist camps, it blurs the ideological charts.
This does not prevent from noting that if it was indeed Russia which invaded Ukraine, it was NATO which provoked this conflict.
note to certain: real definition of troll is not “one who does not share your opinions” but “one who calls those who do not agree with him a troll”.
Posted by: Tak-Tik | Sep 3 2023 21:38 utc | 163
@JustAMaverick – @7
“(..;) The reason this war has gone on as long as it has, and will continue into the foreseeable future with so much suffering, blood and death, is that there is simply too much money to be made on all sides by continuing. It always comes down to money and this war is no different. ”
Indeed, same feeling here even if I would add -or not forget- the real and political war USA/NATO* against Russia (*which includes the “hidden” war of the USA against Europe)
The “novelty” is that we now have two opposing capitalist camps, it blurs the ideological charts.
This does not prevent from noting that if it was indeed Russia which invaded Ukraine, it was NATO which provoked this conflict.
note to certain: real definition of troll is not “one who does not share your opinions” but “one who calls those who do not agree with him a troll”.
Posted by: Tak-Tik | Sep 3 2023 21:38 utc | 164
What did Reznikov do wrong? Suggestion negotiations?
“Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has been dismissed from his post, the country’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky has announced.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66702893
Posted by: dh | Sep 3 2023 21:38 utc | 165
What did Reznikov do wrong? Suggestion negotiations?
“Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has been dismissed from his post, the country’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky has announced.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66702893
Posted by: dh | Sep 3 2023 21:38 utc | 166
dh: I imagine _elensky is feeling the heat and eliminating potential challengers. Myself, I’m waiting to see what happens with _aluzhny.
Tak-Tik: No, there really are characteristically trollish behaviors. Never responding to objections to one’s assertions, then repeating the assertions, for instance.
Posted by: malenkov | Sep 3 2023 21:46 utc | 167
dh: I imagine _elensky is feeling the heat and eliminating potential challengers. Myself, I’m waiting to see what happens with _aluzhny.
Tak-Tik: No, there really are characteristically trollish behaviors. Never responding to objections to one’s assertions, then repeating the assertions, for instance.
Posted by: malenkov | Sep 3 2023 21:46 utc | 168
Someone once said that waging war on another country means going to war against your own people.
I fear that anti-Russian propaganda will be used to curtail our already endangered freedoms here in the US.
Maybe that’s one major reason why our woke totalitarian rulers provoked the Ukrainian conflict in the first place
“Have you heard about the war? It comes back home.”
Posted by: John Kirsch | Sep 3 2023 21:48 utc | 169
Someone once said that waging war on another country means going to war against your own people.
I fear that anti-Russian propaganda will be used to curtail our already endangered freedoms here in the US.
Maybe that’s one major reason why our woke totalitarian rulers provoked the Ukrainian conflict in the first place
“Have you heard about the war? It comes back home.”
Posted by: John Kirsch | Sep 3 2023 21:48 utc | 170
There is oprimism and delusion. i guess the only part i believe is the admission they havent won so far. ” The current counteroffensive of Ukraine will not throw Russia away, and no one expected it. It is unlikely to be possible to halve the occupation before the onset of winter, which was one of the most optimistic goals. However, it showed that the Russian army can be defeated. Not in 2023, but in 2024 or 2025,” retired uk army general richard barrons in the Financial Times.
Posted by: hankster | Sep 3 2023 21:51 utc | 171
There is oprimism and delusion. i guess the only part i believe is the admission they havent won so far. ” The current counteroffensive of Ukraine will not throw Russia away, and no one expected it. It is unlikely to be possible to halve the occupation before the onset of winter, which was one of the most optimistic goals. However, it showed that the Russian army can be defeated. Not in 2023, but in 2024 or 2025,” retired uk army general richard barrons in the Financial Times.
Posted by: hankster | Sep 3 2023 21:51 utc | 172
@je | Sep 3 2023 14:01 utc | 1
I do not see so much of concern trolling in your post, rather obsessive and desperate belief in western superiority.
Get me right: I do not doubt that the US and NATO still have some smart engineers who are able to design nifty weapons. We have not forgotten that all the Reaper, Global Hawk etc initially came from the US – 2 dacades ago. Since then, others have picked up the idea of unmanned weaponry. All the innovations of the last 2 decades came from everywhere, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, China, not the US.
Certainly, there may be new developments even in the US. But mind that the US educate half the engineers of Russia, and one fifteens of China. In STEM graduations, they are at par with Russia (due to an excess in “life sciences”), with a twelfth of China.
Until recently, the shortcomings of US educational systems did matter less as long as they could buy intellectual capacity from elsewhere. Crumbling Dollar, crumbling cities, and rising crime make that harder.
Posted by: aquadraht | Sep 3 2023 21:57 utc | 173
@je | Sep 3 2023 14:01 utc | 1
I do not see so much of concern trolling in your post, rather obsessive and desperate belief in western superiority.
Get me right: I do not doubt that the US and NATO still have some smart engineers who are able to design nifty weapons. We have not forgotten that all the Reaper, Global Hawk etc initially came from the US – 2 dacades ago. Since then, others have picked up the idea of unmanned weaponry. All the innovations of the last 2 decades came from everywhere, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, China, not the US.
Certainly, there may be new developments even in the US. But mind that the US educate half the engineers of Russia, and one fifteens of China. In STEM graduations, they are at par with Russia (due to an excess in “life sciences”), with a twelfth of China.
Until recently, the shortcomings of US educational systems did matter less as long as they could buy intellectual capacity from elsewhere. Crumbling Dollar, crumbling cities, and rising crime make that harder.
Posted by: aquadraht | Sep 3 2023 21:57 utc | 174
Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 3 2023 21:00 utc | 79
###########
The poster who takes up for Prighozin over Shoigu has been here for some time.
Disloyalty is disgusting. A man who betrays his people is unworthy of respect. Any man in a position of authority who cannot be trusted is a liability, and his fatal end, regardless of who did it, is unsurprising.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 21:58 utc | 175
Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 3 2023 21:00 utc | 79
###########
The poster who takes up for Prighozin over Shoigu has been here for some time.
Disloyalty is disgusting. A man who betrays his people is unworthy of respect. Any man in a position of authority who cannot be trusted is a liability, and his fatal end, regardless of who did it, is unsurprising.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 21:58 utc | 176
As to UAV innovations, apologies. Omitted Iran, and DPRK.
Posted by: aquadraht | Sep 3 2023 21:59 utc | 177
As to UAV innovations, apologies. Omitted Iran, and DPRK.
Posted by: aquadraht | Sep 3 2023 21:59 utc | 178
@ Alina | Sep 3 2023 19:16 utc | 61
lol.. and the western msm and guardian aren’t?? if you are trying to be funny – you’ve succeeded!
Posted by: james | Sep 3 2023 22:03 utc | 179
@ Alina | Sep 3 2023 19:16 utc | 61
lol.. and the western msm and guardian aren’t?? if you are trying to be funny – you’ve succeeded!
Posted by: james | Sep 3 2023 22:03 utc | 180
“Sinking a cruiser wouldn’t be ‘strategically and tactically irrelevant’.
Y’all delusional.”
Posted by: Sun of York | Sep 3 2023 19:56 utc | 74
So please describe the tactical &/or strategic advantage Ukr gained from the sinking? Other than a few days news headlines?
Posted by: Mary | Sep 3 2023 22:03 utc | 181
“Sinking a cruiser wouldn’t be ‘strategically and tactically irrelevant’.
Y’all delusional.”
Posted by: Sun of York | Sep 3 2023 19:56 utc | 74
So please describe the tactical &/or strategic advantage Ukr gained from the sinking? Other than a few days news headlines?
Posted by: Mary | Sep 3 2023 22:03 utc | 182
LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 19:40 utc | 68
“Does anyone trust the West to program their AI not to have a heavy ideological bias?”
When people like Hillary Clinton or Obama want something (like the Presidency) badly enough, all thoughts of political correctness or diversity fly out of the window. Both candidates election strategy teams looked straight out of Mad Men, set in a 1950s advertising agency – white males everywhere, no matter the rhetoric of the leader.
You are right that if you ask ChatGPT why Burkina Faso is poorer than Japan, you’ll be fed boilerplate about imperialism and slavery. But when it’s important, like hitting IL76s at Pskov, it’ll be straight stuff about humidity, wind speeds, shear forces.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Sep 3 2023 22:04 utc | 183
LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 19:40 utc | 68
“Does anyone trust the West to program their AI not to have a heavy ideological bias?”
When people like Hillary Clinton or Obama want something (like the Presidency) badly enough, all thoughts of political correctness or diversity fly out of the window. Both candidates election strategy teams looked straight out of Mad Men, set in a 1950s advertising agency – white males everywhere, no matter the rhetoric of the leader.
You are right that if you ask ChatGPT why Burkina Faso is poorer than Japan, you’ll be fed boilerplate about imperialism and slavery. But when it’s important, like hitting IL76s at Pskov, it’ll be straight stuff about humidity, wind speeds, shear forces.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Sep 3 2023 22:04 utc | 184
Posted by: John Kirsch | Sep 3 2023 21:48 utc | 86
########
Friend, don’t kid yourself. The people in charge are not rational and don’t care about ethics or laws. They have little integrity or they wouldn’t have risen as high as they did.
They don’t need a particular enemy to justify their oppression. If there isn’t one, they will invent one.
China, Russia, white supremacy, Trumpism, Q-Anon, Islamists, Conservative Catholics, Proud Boys, etc. They always keep a roster of boogeymen to tie people and ideas to in order to mobilize mass opinion against individuals and challenges to their authority.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 22:04 utc | 185
Posted by: John Kirsch | Sep 3 2023 21:48 utc | 86
########
Friend, don’t kid yourself. The people in charge are not rational and don’t care about ethics or laws. They have little integrity or they wouldn’t have risen as high as they did.
They don’t need a particular enemy to justify their oppression. If there isn’t one, they will invent one.
China, Russia, white supremacy, Trumpism, Q-Anon, Islamists, Conservative Catholics, Proud Boys, etc. They always keep a roster of boogeymen to tie people and ideas to in order to mobilize mass opinion against individuals and challenges to their authority.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 22:04 utc | 186
Posted by: dh | Sep 3 2023 21:38 utc | 83
Making Reznikov the UK Ambassador is an escape shuttle to London before the shit hits the fan for the junta.
Reznikov gets even further from the frontline, just as Zelensky attempts to recall Ukrainians in the EU for conscription.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Sep 3 2023 22:46 utc | 187
Posted by: dh | Sep 3 2023 21:38 utc | 83
Making Reznikov the UK Ambassador is an escape shuttle to London before the shit hits the fan for the junta.
Reznikov gets even further from the frontline, just as Zelensky attempts to recall Ukrainians in the EU for conscription.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Sep 3 2023 22:46 utc | 188
Posted by: Neal | Sep 3 2023 18:58 utc | 58
Jezzus mate! A post like that will bring ASIO to your door. SERIOUSLY.
Posted by: SCCC | Sep 3 2023 22:52 utc | 189
Posted by: Neal | Sep 3 2023 18:58 utc | 58
Jezzus mate! A post like that will bring ASIO to your door. SERIOUSLY.
Posted by: SCCC | Sep 3 2023 22:52 utc | 190
SouthFront has an article up claiming that the Ukrainians have started putting poison on drones that will affect soldiers if they handle a captured drone. Another twist in the drone wars.
james@47
Thanks – just thinking out loud and trying to summarize what has gone down so far as I see it. I believe I said last spring that I expected to have a better sense by September of how long the conflict will last… Now I am thinking maybe by the end of December as I still lack a clear sense of the real state of play.
Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 3 2023 22:58 utc | 191
SouthFront has an article up claiming that the Ukrainians have started putting poison on drones that will affect soldiers if they handle a captured drone. Another twist in the drone wars.
james@47
Thanks – just thinking out loud and trying to summarize what has gone down so far as I see it. I believe I said last spring that I expected to have a better sense by September of how long the conflict will last… Now I am thinking maybe by the end of December as I still lack a clear sense of the real state of play.
Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 3 2023 22:58 utc | 192
Posted by: Neal | Sep 3 2023 19:21 utc | 63
Neal, ffs. A second one! You’ll find yourself on the watchlist of urban terrorists. SERIOUSLY. Are you an idiot? I’d assume ASIO are monitoring all alt-Ukraine sites for Australian dissidents like you.
Posted by: SCCC | Sep 3 2023 23:00 utc | 193
Posted by: Neal | Sep 3 2023 19:21 utc | 63
Neal, ffs. A second one! You’ll find yourself on the watchlist of urban terrorists. SERIOUSLY. Are you an idiot? I’d assume ASIO are monitoring all alt-Ukraine sites for Australian dissidents like you.
Posted by: SCCC | Sep 3 2023 23:00 utc | 194
Whether people live or die, the administrators ensure the concept of Ukraine lives on. It’s impossible for this to change as long as the dissent are merely bloggy mcblogsters in their rec rooms mediating forgone conclusions for Patreon.
Posted by: Arrnon | Sep 3 2023 19:33 utc | 65
So you hate the bar and other refugees from the imperialist propaganda machine. Why are you here again, dippy mcdipshit?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 3 2023 23:02 utc | 195
Whether people live or die, the administrators ensure the concept of Ukraine lives on. It’s impossible for this to change as long as the dissent are merely bloggy mcblogsters in their rec rooms mediating forgone conclusions for Patreon.
Posted by: Arrnon | Sep 3 2023 19:33 utc | 65
So you hate the bar and other refugees from the imperialist propaganda machine. Why are you here again, dippy mcdipshit?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 3 2023 23:02 utc | 196
Now, the Narcofuhrer has replaced Mr Clean as defense minister. I’m sure that means all is well. Just like the story about Mr Clean misappropriating monies meant to feed soldiers dying on the front line, no doubt Russian propaganda.
Mr Cleans problem was he got caught, not that he was a traitor and a thief. Maericans don’t care about that, but they sure as shit care about headlines.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 3 2023 23:05 utc | 197
Now, the Narcofuhrer has replaced Mr Clean as defense minister. I’m sure that means all is well. Just like the story about Mr Clean misappropriating monies meant to feed soldiers dying on the front line, no doubt Russian propaganda.
Mr Cleans problem was he got caught, not that he was a traitor and a thief. Maericans don’t care about that, but they sure as shit care about headlines.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 3 2023 23:05 utc | 198
Zelensky “entertained” with his piano playing.
The new Ukrainian Minister of Defence entertains with a social media post of him masturbating.
(Pics, or it’s unsourced rumours, right?)
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/41133
Telegram |~ More details re Umerov
As the Turks write, one of the reasons for appointing Umerov to the post of Minister of Defense of Ukraine is the propaganda of his nationality, the acceleration of the recruitment of volunteers and mercenaries from the countries of the former USSR and Turkey, as well as the implementation of total mobilization in Ukraine, but “with a dream of Turan”
Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 3 2023 23:33 utc | 199
Zelensky “entertained” with his piano playing.
The new Ukrainian Minister of Defence entertains with a social media post of him masturbating.
(Pics, or it’s unsourced rumours, right?)
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/41133
Telegram |~ More details re Umerov
As the Turks write, one of the reasons for appointing Umerov to the post of Minister of Defense of Ukraine is the propaganda of his nationality, the acceleration of the recruitment of volunteers and mercenaries from the countries of the former USSR and Turkey, as well as the implementation of total mobilization in Ukraine, but “with a dream of Turan”
Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 3 2023 23:33 utc | 200