The latest post from Mearsheimer on his substack “Bound to Lose”contains some fairly persuasive arguments as to why Ukraine had almost zero chance to succeed militarily using the Blitzkrieg techniques favored by their Western ‘advisors’. And even if they had ‘succeeded’, that the following events would almost surely develop in a way not necessarily to Ukraine’s (and the West’s) advantage.
Of course Mearsheimer is no peacenik (more like the ugliest of ugly Americans), and he would prefer the Ukraine debacle be wrapped up as soon as possible (whatever the outcome for the unfortunate participants) in order to get to the serious business of attacking China solely in an attempt to preserve US primacy, so that should be kept in mind.

Posted by: BillB | Sep 3 2023 14:08 utc | 3

Posted by: je | Sep 3 2023 14:01 utc | 4
##############
Whatever the American equivalent of the Lancet is, it will be expensive, slow to produce, and difficult to maintain. That is the entire business model and hundreds of Congressmen depend on it.
The mythology of American technical military superiority is a lie that the Russians have been dispelling since the start of the SMO.
Like Prighozin, the Americans are masters of self-promotion, not necessarily personal achievement and excellence. Although, you can be sure that they will tell you all about it in an entertaining and well-produced manner.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 14:17 utc | 5

A trope of the last week has been “there is no cost to the west as only Ukrainians are being killed” which demonstrates the cynical racist attitude of western governments and their cheerleaders.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Sep 3 2023 14:08 utc | 6
It is a lie, this is all very expensive for the West. That has been quite a shock. Ask yourself who it is that wants to get this over now? I am pretty sure “Biden” would do just about anything to bring it to a conclusion acceptable to his cabal, so he could focus on Trump. They are cutting “deals” with Venezuela and Iran now. Russia looks less in a hurry than when they started.

Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 3 2023 14:18 utc | 7

Re: Posted by: Wondrous | Sep 3 2023 14:14 utc | 8

All ok, but if ‘killing trains ‘ was easy why isn’t Russia doing it? If the reasons are not technological , then why would the USA kill railways when Russia doesn’t?

The USA MB>would do it because the US oligarchs are not using Russian railways to transport their goods to market.
The Russians won’t do it because the Russian oligarchs are using Ukrainian railways to transport their goods to market.

Posted by: Julian | Sep 3 2023 14:24 utc | 9

The Russians won’t do it because the Russian oligarchs are using Ukrainian railways to transport their goods to market

The Chinese are the ones they are considering more. The Russian oligarchs have been mostly defanged.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 3 2023 14:26 utc | 11

Lately my views on this conflict have changed. I have and continue to be a supporter of Russia and it’s people against NATO aggression and the radical Nazi ideology that has flourished in Ukraine. I have also followed this conflict and have from the start had many questions about the way Russia has conducted itself and often wondered why they have done the things they’ve done. I’ve heard all the arguments and have agreed at least in part with some but have never been satisfied completely with any of them.
What it comes down too is the question, why does Russia continue to fight and it’s soldiers die when they could have at any time had they chosen, won this conflict outright. They have fought this war with one hand tied behind their back and continue to do so. In doing so they have allowed and it could almost be said invited, continuing escalation by Washington and NATO without displaying the least resistance too it. At any time Russia chooses it could, turn all the lights off in Ukraine and leave the country in the dark. They could go after the government and decision making centers…turn the entire mechanisms of government into rubble. They could blow the bridges and railways into more rubble making resupply virtually impossible yet they do not.
After a lot of pondering I have come to the sad conclusion that it all comes down to money. There are many Russian Oligarchs making boatloads of cash off this conflict and I fear that corruption is as deeply seeded within the Russian government as it is in NATO and Washington. Doesn’t it make you scratch your head every time you read an article talking about how much gas and oil Europe continues to buy from Russia and all the money Russia is making off of it. Haven’t you asked yourself why Russia would continue to supply critical resources to an entity bent on Russian destruction. I know I have. If Russia turned off the energy spigot those countries would quickly be brought to their knees and be forced to capitulate, yet they do not.
This is not a happy conclusion for me, just an inevitable one. I have not wanted to come to this conclusion…my desire to be supporting the “good guys” against the evil empire of lies has been as strong in me as it has for many who inhabit this blog. I think it is part of the human condition to look for the easy answer and think the best of whoever they decide to support while ignoring pesky and inconvenient evidence that the “good guys” are not as good as we may have hoped.
The reason this war has gone on as long as it has, and will continue into the foreseeable future with so much suffering, blood and death, is that there is simply too much money to be made on all sides by continuing. It always comes down to money and this war is no different.

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Sep 3 2023 14:27 utc | 13

Russia wouldn’t do any large scale offensive till one month before the end of the war.
Russian strategy is to inflict attrition to Ukraine till it no longer has the manpower or the equipment to man the fronts, once Ukraine lacks the manpower in the SMO, Russia will invade from all side including Belarus to capture all of Ukraine.
Russia is playing a waiting game, western quantity of supplies has dropped significantly, for example ISA running out of 155mm shells to give and choosing to give cluster ammunition, Or Ukraine lack of Soviet Anti Air missles of systems such as s300, Ukraine lack of trained manpower and their morales after limited or non existent success is all playing in the Russian hands. Not to mention Russian military industrial complex is catching up so they wouldn’t feel safe starting any operations without proper stockpiles.
Russia wouldn’t accept any peace deal without copulation of the Ukrainian government, essentially they won’t leave until they have Ukraine under their control, so this leave Ukraine to defend for multiple years, they cannot conduct offensive operations anymore due to lack of tanks, Air support, and Russian deep entrenchment.
This leaves Ukraine to just defend what they currently have and throwing peace deals hoping China or India pressure Russia to a seize fire. Replacing Anti Air defence in the whole of ukraine with patriot or other system would cost hundreds of billions, which Russia knows America is not that stupid to spend that much money into it, Russian air superiority will get bigger and bigger. Russian drone superiority is already so impactful the Ukrainians had to put a cage around a Leo tank just to somewhat defend them against lancets.
Essentially, Russia wouldn’t attack (large military operation not localised attacks such as bakhmut or kupyansk) until it believes it has sufficient forces to completely capture Ukraine in a short amount of time, if they do it slowly they would only invite more calculaties to their side and more time for western powers to react. Russia would attack and fight positional battles to keep Ukrainian defences attached to the frontlines but it wouldn’t attempt to grab huge some of territory until at least 2024. Maybe even timing it with elections.

Posted by: Sultanambam | Sep 3 2023 14:39 utc | 15

Russia wouldn’t accept any peace deal without copulation of the Ukrainian government, essentially they won’t leave until they have Ukraine under their control, so this leave Ukraine to defend for multiple years, they cannot conduct offensive operations anymore due to lack of tanks, Air support, and Russian deep entrenchment.
Posted by: Sultanambam | Sep 3 2023 14:39 utc | 21
##########
I do believe that the Russians intend to F*%k the Ukrainian government.
In a sea of concern trolling, thank you for getting me to smile.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 14:45 utc | 17

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 14:17 utc | 10
Americans are masters of self-promotion

Posted by: je | Sep 3 2023 14:45 utc | 19

What many commentators, including Paul Craig Roberts, have missed is that the Russians’ slow approach to this conflict has reaped many political and military benefits..Those include low Russian casualties, time to modernize and expand the Russian military, a massive expansion of BRICS, proof to the world that the Biden administration has no interest in peace, and demonstration that American weapons and training aren’t what they were cracked up to be….

Posted by: pyrrhus | Sep 3 2023 14:48 utc | 21

“If one wishes to look outside of the echo chamber I would suggest to go to telegram channels run by people from russian front lines. This is good example
https://t.me/wehearfromyanina/2579
You might need to use Google translate and weed out military slang but this information for sure will make a dent in the Ukrainian army collapse narrative so prevalent in MoA”
It is very easy. Russia will never lose this war. Just accept this fact. And what is more, the world needs a change, and we are about to get that.
Talking about echo chamber? Look at the west, and you have it. Group think, political correctness, afraid of standing out. Stupidity after stupidity is the norm. If Covid has taught you nothing else, you should by now realize that the elite run the shop. And you are a non essential part of the furniture. Nothing more. You are entirely optional.
That needs to change, don’t you think?

Posted by: g wiltek | Sep 3 2023 14:52 utc | 23

Posted by: Wondrous | Sep 3 2023 14:14 utc | 8
All ok, but if ‘killing trains ‘ was easy why isn’t Russia doing it? If the reasons are not technological , then why would the USA kill railways when Russia doesn’t?
###################################
Beat me. Seems like neither side can do it. It appears that satellites can’t provide real-time targeting to put a missile on moving target. Or maybe the Russian’s AD is good enough to stop the HARMs and cruise missiles require stationary targets. Russia has the missiles but perhaps not the targeting capabilities.
My thoughts are about what is coming. Loitering drones are already used to target at the front-line. It is not a big step to make something that can passively watch for train and call in a missile.
Russia has a 5-10 year lead in missiles. I think it is playing catchup on drones. I am sure there is someone in a Skunkworks in the American Southwest with $50-100 million figuring out how to knock out trains.

Posted by: je | Sep 3 2023 14:56 utc | 25

The slosmo has maximized thr pain for the Maerican economy. Maerica’s banks are insolvent, but her deluded population mostly doesn’t know this thanks to the complaint fascist media.
Putin is the greatest strategist of this age. So sorry Maericans.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/02/half-of-americas-banks-are-already-insolvent-credit-crunch/
Truth is, sooner than later the collapse stops being concealable. The question is what then.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 3 2023 14:57 utc | 27

Motherland Russia always had a plan. The West has no clue of it.

Posted by: AI | Sep 3 2023 15:03 utc | 29

@ 27
Huh, the B-team of the Wehrmacht on the Western Front. During & after D-Day had units composed of partially disabled or infirm occupation troops.
It’s a bad sign when those guys go from, freeing up fitter men to being used in combat Which they almost certainly will…

Posted by: Urban Fox | Sep 3 2023 15:04 utc | 31

DU munitions being advertised as first time supplied coming soon per Reuters.
unprovoked again.

Posted by: Not Ewe | Sep 3 2023 15:05 utc | 33

I think the conflict is one of death by a thousand cuts. It is a longwinded slow kill where the subject bleeds to death.
Most people cannot see that this is the slow death of NATO, the EU and quite possibly the US.
But this will be the result. The de-industrialization of Germany is well started, and without this economic locomotive the EU loses cohesion. And the US influence in Europe.
It is high time and well overdue.
One hard winter could easily tip the scale irrevocably.

Posted by: g wiltek | Sep 3 2023 15:10 utc | 35

@pyrrhus | Sep 3 2023 14:48 utc | 25
They could do what you described much better from the border of the new regions, not from inside as it is now. And I highly doubt they do a “demonstration that American weapons and training aren’t what they were cracked up to be” using their own people as guinea pigs. Only disturbed minds of yt (from natostan) say “let nato send anything… no problem! ha ha! now please buy me a coffee, donate”.

Posted by: rk | Sep 3 2023 15:16 utc | 37

I see stupid people.
Posted by: gottlieb | Sep 3 2023 14:37 utc | 20
I see a bunch of paid agents of imperialism trying to convince the bar that Russia is actually on the ropes and that if you squint hard enough you’ll see the Ukronazis and their RC backers in the west are actually bringing it in for the big win.
There have been some good articles from Greenwald and Taibi lately detailing another push to desperately censor any site that reveals the truth about the crisis-ridden and rapidly declining west. Surest sign they are losing.
US Imperialism is a desperate loser at this point with nothing left but censorship and narrative management. Again, a reality show with nukes. And poor, tragic Ukraine can only aspire to be like them which is infinitely more pathetic.
You trolls should really get out of the bar a little. Tell your masters you want to join the Ukie volunteer brigades and report for us from the front lines. Then you can regale us with more accurate info.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 3 2023 15:24 utc | 39

As BillB | Sep 3 2023 14:08 utc |5 posted, John Mearsheimer offers a postmortem, Bound to Lose, on how Ukraine’s counter-offensive was doomed from the start.
Mearsheimer writes with the benefit of hindsight, but he acknowledges a few in the West wrote with foresight: “Finally, there are several individuals who operate on alternative media who argued that the counteroffensive would fail before it was launched. They include Brian Berletic, Alex Christoforou, Glenn Diesen, Douglas Macgregor, Alexander Mercouris, and Scott Ritter.”
Thanks b; you’ve kept us well-informed.

Posted by: DocHollywood | Sep 3 2023 15:32 utc | 41

@pyrrhus | Sep 3 2023 14:48 utc
The slow aproach doesn’t lead to low casualties. It leads to a low death count per day but will in the end lead to alot more death then a fast aproach. It will also lead to alot more risk of unexpected events which might lead to a failure to reach the end goal. Also it will kill ALOT more russian people fighting for Ukraine, unwilling but forced to fight.

Posted by: rageman | Sep 3 2023 15:38 utc | 43

@ Posted by: je | Sep 3 2023 14:01 utc | 1
All things are possible. One cannot defeat the possible – best to face the reality. US seeks to ensure that this is a long war – burden Russia with another Afghanistan. Russia seems content to do likewise to US. However, Russia strives to use the motivation of the war to make itself stronger and strengthen the will of its people. Additionally, the war is straining western alliances and weakening western countries, many of which were already rather vulnerable. All while strengthening the relations of non-aligned nations. There are a lot of moving parts. It seems a step in the right direction.
I believe that the outcome of the war will be determined by economics, demographics and international relations. The political world is reforming under the stress of this war – maybe some of the west will even come around to the good side.

Posted by: jared | Sep 3 2023 15:40 utc | 45

je @1: ” It is no surprise to me that the Lancet is the MVP of this conflict. I don’t think we’ve see the US equivalent yet.”
Yes, you have seen the US equivalent, but NAFO Nazi fairies would rather forget about it. It is called the “Switchblade”.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 3 2023 15:42 utc | 47

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 3 2023 15:42 utc | 24

je @1: ” It is no surprise to me that the Lancet is the MVP of this conflict. I don’t think we’ve see the US equivalent yet.”
Yes, you have seen the US equivalent,

Indeed. The empire, with it’s all powerful MIC, has been burning through multiple iterations of drones touted as a finished product for almost two years now.
Most recently we’re being sold the latest iteration in cardboard.
Pathetic really.
LOL! Always one step behind!

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 3 2023 15:56 utc | 49

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 3 2023 15:56 utc | 25
##########
I thought the cardboard drones were quite clever. Now the test for the Military Industrial Complex (MIC) is to figure out how to make cardboard worth $250,000 per drone.
I am sure the patent process can assist with that. 😂
The obvious downsides are that I can’t imagine they are any good in weather, and now we’re getting into the time of year when paper drones will be a liability if they are used for more than short-distance terrorist attacks.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 16:08 utc | 51

Russian Command
The general consensus is that after the Ukrainian offensive runs out of steam that the Russians will attack with a quick and successful offensive bringing a final and decisive defeat to the AFU.
I also held to this possibility giving it some credence. Perhaps, this is the way it will play out.
However, I am starting to doubt Russia’s ability to conduct a successful offensive. This is due to the reports of some notable military leaders of obtaining adequate support for their troops from the Russian MOD command structure.
It could be that Sergei Shoigu has a difficult time relating to his more aggressive commanders and offensive leaders. This is often the case with a Minister of Defense that is more suspicious of aggressive commanders than being observant of their capabilities and being sensitive to the needs of the battlefield.
A great commander is able to balance their offensive and their defensive leaders to bring about victory.
I question that this is the case with Shoigu.
I think that Shoigu purposefully hinders the more aggressive commanders in their tasks on the front lines. In doing so he not only hinders the commanders and leaders he does not like, but he also jeapordises the troops under their command.
Perhaps, Prigozhin and Popov had legitiment concerns regarding the Russian MOD.

Posted by: young | Sep 3 2023 16:28 utc | 53

Perhaps, Prigozhin and Popov had legitiment concerns regarding the Russian MOD.
Posted by: young | Sep 3 2023 16:28 utc | 27
#############
We can discount anything Prighozin said because he was a traitor who killed Russians. The man should have zero credibility with any intelligent man. Men don’t betray their country, or murder their countrymen, over any sort of ideological dispute.
Prighozin’s issue was likely much more base. The Russian MOD wanted to bring Wagner under command structure control, and he didn’t want to lose his golden egg, both for money (side jobs that reflected poorly on the Russian state) and prestige. Who would even know who Prighozin was if not for Wagner? It’s not like he made the best peroghi in Moscow.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 16:38 utc | 55

posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 3 2023 15:24 utc | 20
You mistook the stupid people I was talking about. I agree 100%

Posted by: gottlieb | Sep 3 2023 16:38 utc | 57

Zelensky is touring EU controlled part of Europe again. Apparently he is asking to extradite all military aged Ukrainians back to Ukraine.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 3 2023 16:45 utc | 59

I have to wonder about Russia’s intentions if they are putting great effort into building extensive defenses. I recently heard they were doing this near the nuclear power plant. So, I have to wonder about these lines becoming a future border.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 3 2023 16:52 utc | 61

Zelensky is touring EU controlled part of Europe again. Apparently he is asking to extradite all military aged Ukrainians back to Ukraine.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 3 2023 16:45 utc | 30
########
I have been told by the international media that this is what winners do.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 16:55 utc | 63

As much as this war looks like WWI, I worry that it will have elements of the Spain Civil War where the warring armies figure out how to use a new technology (drones) and, after a pause, we have a rerun of WWII.
The drone battle feels like it could go either way. I’ve got a lot of respect for Russia’s engineering prowess but I don’t think we’ve really seen what comes out of DARPA’s far-flung robot dogs, etc. efforts.
Posted by: je | Sep 3 2023 14:01 utc | 1

That’s because most of the “super weapons” like lasers/directed energy, stealth, “AI” etc. are cash cows for the defense contractors like Lokheed Martin to swindle tax payers for “weapons” that have little practical use in a real war.
If they are as advanced as the brochures say they are, the US could have covertly sent them to Ukraine and have Russia destroyed last year.
These defense contractors also spend a great deal of propaganda through think tanks, media, comments sections of military magazines and even Hollywood to convince the general public that they’re a great “investment”, even if they’re reluctant to demonstrate their capabilities against near peer adversaries in opportunities such as Ukraine.
The major leap forward from world war 2 is ICBMs (ability to destroy entire bases and cities in 10 minutes), satellite imagining (no more surprise attacks), air defenses (the ability shoot down anything flies) and cruise missiles (the ability shoot down boats as well as planes parked in bases in case they are “stealth”). Everything else is smoke and mirrors.
The Soviet Union was good at most of these. Since both Ukraine & Russia inherited the technology from the USSR, the advantage is more or less negated and back to artillery they went. That also explains why the NATO military brass is reluctant despite a few politician’s desires. NATO ain’t former Soviet like Ukraine, Putin will stomp them into pancakes.

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Sep 3 2023 17:02 utc | 65

“You’d be a fool to assume that the army of US/Israel/Germany/French/Japan/South Korean researchers won’t figure out something deadly given more time
Posted by: je | Sep 3 2023 14:45 utc | 24”
They’ve had 18 months. In thay time, Russia has trained hundreds of thousands of soldiers, field tested its own & allies’ newest missiles, drones, etc., upped its production capabilities numerous times over, shut down 23 bioweapon labs, put poseidon & now sarmat on active duty & successfully destroyed everything the combined west has thrown at it.
Aside from advertising wunderweapon failures, distributing massive lethal weapons to Isis & other unknown black market parties, destroying infrastructure & farmland, lining the pockets of pols & the mic, & killing a half million or so Ukrainian soldiers & an unknown # of mercs, what has the west accomplished so far?

Posted by: Mary | Sep 3 2023 17:11 utc | 67

B, you cant counter propaganda by hiding people from it, it simply lends credence to the propaganda.simply put it makes you look afraid of bad news, like its real.
Frankly it makes it seem like you believe it. The censorship isn’t a good weapon just because you have good intentions.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 3 2023 17:12 utc | 69

The obvious downsides are that I can’t imagine they [cardboard drones] are any good in weather, and now we’re getting into the time of year when paper drones will be a liability if they are used for more than short-distance terrorist attacks.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 16:08 utc | 26
Actually, the waxed cardboard boxes used for certain kinds of produce seem to stand up pretty well against rain, at least for a few days. Probably heavier, though.
In any case, nothing says alternative light/cheap/waterproof materials can’t be used instead. One could imagine certain kinds of plastic would work well. Might even be easier to manufacture.

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Sep 3 2023 17:14 utc | 71

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 3 2023 17:12 utc | 35
brings to mind:
“Everyone believes in the atrocities of the enemy and disbelieves in those of his own side, without ever bothering to examine the evidence.”
Eric Blair/ George Orwell

Posted by: czechlist | Sep 3 2023 17:18 utc | 73

Posted by: Mary | Sep 3 2023 17:11 utc | 34
Not the west, obviously, but Ukrainian sinking of Moskva immediately comes to mind

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Sep 3 2023 17:19 utc | 75

To je, 1st poster, in no way to be mean, I find the adage “people prepare to fight the last war, not the current” enlightening. We humans crave understanding of events, hence we seek literal, symbolic, metaphoric, or allegorical points of reference to talk about new events. It’s a completely natural process.
That said, like we have often seen in other Ukraine topics (and previous wars in an age of instant internet commentary), we can often get lost in trying to categorize in detail the event. But comparisons can never be so precise. And so much energy can be lost in the struggle to split such hairs of detail.
So the comparisons to other wars and battles often become red herrings (usually) without any fault of our own (malicious actors always exist, so there will always be that exception). We are trying to make sense the best way we can, and past learning must be projected upon current events. Useful enough exercise as long as people “stay upon the green,” as it were, without getting “lost in the rough.”
So I find your questioning prompts on “the current value of rail in a time of war” and “what can the USA-West MIC create in current manufacturing time to catch up meaningfully” to be of greater topical interest. I’d be more interested in hearing what barflies think of those discussions — as it has been revealed to us by the current events & their results — than a retread of history through an artful collage of battles. Personally, I feel rail shows to be priceless and The West’s financialization has crippled any meaningful industrial build up in time to match with these current developments.
🙂 But I’d like to hear other views!

Posted by: titmouse | Sep 3 2023 17:20 utc | 77

I thought the cardboard drones were quite clever.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 16:08 utc | 26
We are supplying arms, intelligence, training, all the while claiming we are not involved.
These are dangerous precedents we are setting. If Russia supplies an app to protesters next time a suburb of Paris or London goes up in flames, we will not have a leg to stand on.

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 3 2023 17:33 utc | 79

@39 titmouse
Re:other views
You won’t find them here. In fact I’m so annoyed I’m taking my ball and going home.
No need to delete my posts. I won’t make any more, message received.
But delete this one lest anyone get tempted from this blogs garden path.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 3 2023 17:33 utc | 81

Both sides in this conflict (Russia/Ukraine + western sponsors) have been using it as a laboratory for military tech and strategy. Neither side uses aircraft over the contact line, limiting air support to standoff weapons/attacks and support behind the front. This despite Russian superiority in AD and air capability because of the threat from MANPADs and surveillance resources that can track aircraft movements in real time. I don’t believe either side expected this situation at the start.
Artillery range and accuracy have proved to be critical factors with both sides working as fast as possible to improve both. New passive means to target firing positions are being tested and fielded by the Russians, and likely by the west as well.
The inability to mass forces without detection and targeting by the opponent has limited both sides ability to make offensive moves of sufficient scale to take territory. The solution seems to have been to build up forces at many points simultaneously in an attempt to mask objectives and confuse the opponent. This strategy requires deploying more forces than would otherwise be required and attacking on multiple fronts at once.
Drones and EW countermeasures have become critical resources with both sides constantly innovating and improving both hardware and tactics.
Both sides have had some success in this competition and UAF forces would not have been able to survive this long without the ability to compensate for their shortcomings in logistics and hardware availability.
It seems to me that, while Ukraine remains unable to recover territory, that Russia cannot prevail militarily until it is able to mass sufficient forces to completely overwhelm the opposing forces on all strategic fronts simultaneously. Continued attrition and degradation of Ukrainian forces improves the Russian calculus, but does not change the fundamental basis for military victory in this conflict.
Propaganda, information warfare, and lack of clear understanding of the real effectiveness of things like the Russian bombing/missile campaign make accurate and realistic assesment of the state of play problematic for outside observers.
Political changes, such as a collapse of the Ukrainian government or coup could, of course, alter the situation radically.
I think the west intends to maximize the benifits from this ‘experiment’ by prolonging the conflict as long as possible. At some point I expect Russia to attempt to finish it definitively in their favor. Timing completely unclear.

Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 3 2023 17:35 utc | 83

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2023 14:17 utc | 3
first rule never ever underestimate your enemy, if you really think VSA spending their ridiculous high military budget for useless nonsense then your wrong. they are using already their fancy super duper AI intel stuff, that we haven’t seen Lancet equivalents on the ground idk, maybe VSA just don’t want to reveal their fancy high-tech stuff , we will see..

Posted by: publicdisorder | Sep 3 2023 17:36 utc | 85

LoveDonbass 9
The original comment 21 seems to have got caught in the sperm trap. Childish of me I know. You are all too polite , , or grown up , or maybe drunk, to comment
Sorry. Sorry

Posted by: Giyane | Sep 3 2023 17:38 utc | 87

The primary advantage that Russia and China have is that the most of the best talent in the US goes into Finance/Advertising/Law because of the economic incentives. And the West is not taking this seriously.
Posted by: je | Sep 3 2023 14:45 utc | 10
A Key and Fatal Flaw of Western strategy. Favoring Finance, Advertising, Law, and other Parasitical endeavors over Manufacturing is Hubris gone Mad. It is the West that wanted the “in vogue” shiny skin of Arsenic Poison glorified by story after story of the money-printing, debt addiction, versus the difficult and “unclean” industries critical to value-added, not inflation, overhead added Cotton Candy jobs propped up from cooking the books.
Western Banking? Like the vast majority of Western Business, dependent entirely on Central Banks putting the thumb down on interest rates for more than a decade, and conjuring into the money system, unearned dollars/euros that give the illusion of an economy. Russia, whether by strategic design or not, is precisely the powerhouse that the USA was pre and during WWII – self-sufficient in energy, key resources, and educated/determined people motivated by survival.
Ukraine, led by hubris and greed, egged on by anachronistic, ossified old men in DC and Europe, decided to be the fly who put one leg onto the flypaper. The more they wriggle, the stucker they get.
In some ways, ascribing clarity to the Russian timeline, in the fog of an actual war, is just an exercise of Magpies chatting to each other across the telephone lines. Many of the initial unknowns are now clear for Russia. The West, especially the U.S. Government, wants to jawbone Russia into submission, while expecting Russia to do nothing about the actual American, British, and European, DIRECT action against Russia and her troops. The current Leaders of Collective West
are saying, “I dare you” to Russia, as dirtier and dirtier weapons are introduced. That very broad Russian Red Line has an edge to it somewhere and we shall see.

Posted by: kupkee | Sep 3 2023 17:39 utc | 89

Neofeudalfuture, do not flounce away in a huff. Sometimes it is the manner not the material that provokes pushback. There is a reason style and substance goes together; “the sugar makes the medicine go down.” Rest, rephrase, and retry.
And it’s OK if people get you yet still disagree completely. Such is life.
(Which brings up a broader current events commentary: The West is all sugar of late, and The RoW is all medicine. It’s obvious which is better for the ailing from a remove, but it is so distressing for the ailing.)

Posted by: titmouse | Sep 3 2023 17:44 utc | 91

@ the pessimist | Sep 3 2023 17:35 utc | 42
thanks for stating all that.. i agree with you.. timing is completely unclear as you say..

Posted by: james | Sep 3 2023 18:06 utc | 93

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Sep 3 2023 17:19 utc | 38
What multicolor flag do you subscribe to?

Posted by: sal | Sep 3 2023 18:08 utc | 95

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 3 2023 17:33 utc | 40
I guess you missed Korea and Vietnam…

Posted by: truth unedited | Sep 3 2023 18:13 utc | 97

If there are ever negotiations, the minimum Russian position will be:
ALL of the Ukraine to be annexed to Russia except:
1. Six oblasts: Kiev, Zhitomir, Ploskurov (aka Khmelnitsky), Vinnitsa, Cherkassy & Yelizavetgrad (aka Kirovograd) may elect to become a state analogous to Belarus and allied to Russia.
2. Provided Poland & Rumania leave NATO, surrender their Aegis Ashore systems and demilitarize (no foreign troops), then:
(a) Galicia [= oblasts Lvov, Volyn, Rovno, Tarnopol & Stanislavov (aka Ivano-Frankovsk)] may elect to be administered by Poland;
(b) Bessarabia [= Chernovtsy & Bujak] may elect to be administered by Rumania;
(c) Transcarpathia may elect to be independent or an exclave of Russia (cf. Kaliningrad).
3. All sanctions to end and normal trade relations restored.
4. All seized Russian assets to be returned with interest.

Posted by: John Marks | Sep 3 2023 18:17 utc | 99