any creative ideas on how to deal with this aussie drones?
Sypaq Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System

Posted by: james | Sep 2 2023 18:16 utc | 3

@1 There is no need for ‘big arrows’; time is on Russia’s side. Attrition is the most economical use of resources and lives especially when you are behind prepared defenses.

Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2023 18:18 utc | 5

@james
New tech, either eagle like drone fighters, or image recognition enhance automatic air defence, for cardboard small lasers ought to do it.
Right now though, it’s a tough one. Steel cages on top of targets seem to work ok. Just always assume some little bomb might land on you.dont be complacent the front is everywhere

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 2 2023 18:24 utc | 7

james @ 2

any creative ideas on how to deal with this aussie drones?

A boomerang?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 2 2023 18:36 utc | 9

thanks for the feedback…. ”these” drones are a problem.. spelling typo in my post @ 2..

Posted by: james | Sep 2 2023 18:38 utc | 11

Russia will compel the MIC controlled Western media to negotiate with itself, a self goal when in conflict, as it can’t help endlessly striving to appear that it has the ability to foretell, and even influence, the endgame of Russia’s SMO.
By trying to appear to have the power to impose conditions, they’ll propose concessions that will have to be made by both sides. Russia will note and memorialize the ones that apply to their foes, ignore the ones that will be demanded of them, and then destroy the justification for why they should make the proposed concessions by way of inflicting horrendous attrition of manpower and material on the AFU.
That results, eventually, in the media then being compelled, in a desire to seem relevant, to hypothesize about even more encompassing concessions that would have to be made to Russia.
The most conducive environment for the MIC controlled Western media to continue to negotiate with itself, to Russia’s benefit, is brought about by Putting saying as little as possible, thus not compelling that same media to push back against him, and thus going against their hitherto pattern of negotiating with itself.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Sep 2 2023 18:39 utc | 13

The headline is “Spain’s Ministry of Defence donates rifles almost a quarter of a century old to Ukraine border guards”
Yet you don’t even get to the main text before the article announces:
“The Spanish army stopped using the Cetme rifle in 1999 due to maintenance and operational problems”
https://www.surinenglish.com/spain/spains-ministry-defence-donates-rifles-almost-quarter-20230831082115-nt.html
Clearly the message has got out to every NATO country with old military stock – be it Sea King helicopters or old Challenger tanks or even F16s – Kiev will take the lot and Western taxpayers will pay for the privilege of replacing them with shiny brand new US/UK product.
The only downside is for the Ukrainians who are sent to the front with sub-standard faulty weaponry.
Next week, Italy finds several crates of rotting Carcano Model 38s…

Posted by: FakeBelieve | Sep 2 2023 18:39 utc | 15

What next?
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 2 2023 18:08 utc | 1
Total mobilization of all available manpower, defense at any cost against any russian advance and massive infantry assaults at the next opportunity for going on the offensive.
However the US could pony up a couple of hundreds of Abrams if it wanted, the war with China should be air/naval for the US anyway.

Posted by: Satepestage | Sep 2 2023 18:40 utc | 17

any creative ideas on how to deal with this aussie drones?

Biggest problem with that kind of thing is always going to be seeing it. Once you see it you could take it out with a firework. I don’t know what the thermal profile would look like but a little cardboard frame is going to be very difficult to pick up, especially at night if it’s flying low. Sonic profile? The world is a noisy place.
We’re closing in on the need for loiter H-K drones around strategic targets, able to push out defensive boundaries and triangulate with each other to identify and eliminate incoming targets. Would that work better than mobile active radar? Yes, because you are looking top down so local vegetation won’t interfere and you can intercept in a matter of moments. It would effectively be lots of little biplanes with sleepless pilots.
Although to be honest this is nothing, wait till you see what the next 3-5 years will bring. The age of the drone is upon us.

Posted by: Due West | Sep 2 2023 18:59 utc | 19

Assessment of Russia’s Offensive Capability
Russia has mainly been fighting a defensive war in Ukraine. Defense alone, regardless of how good it is, will not win on the battlefield. It will not even win a football game.
Russia’s Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, has no direct battle field experience. He is uncomfortable with his more aggressive commanders which usually make the better offensive commanders. This is a typical reaction of “ministers of defense” that have no direct battlefield experience.
Russian command under Shoigu has pretty well shredded their more capable offensive officers. This is evident as multiple of Russia’s more aggressive and better offensive leaders have criticized Russia’s Minister of Defense, Shoigu.
At the zero line, the more aggressive commanders know they will be clipped by Shoigu even if they are successful in offensive maneuvers. They figure it is not worth taking even safe offensive risks under the likes of Shoigu.
So, the Russian offensive is paralyzed and will remain so until either Shoigu can come to the realization that having and properly using aggressive commanders is needed to win wars. Or perhaps Shoigu will be replaced.
Throughout the history of warfare, the best military leaders were those who were able to balance both their offensive and their defensive commanders.
It is doubtful that Shoigu can or will pass the test of being a great military leader. Yet, there is still a war going on to either prove himself or to get out of the way.

Posted by: young | Sep 2 2023 19:00 utc | 21

It is doubtful that Shoigu can or will pass the test of being a great military leader. Yet, there is still a war going on to either prove himself or to get out of the way.
Posted by: young | Sep 2 2023 19:00 utc | 11

You know the saying “Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics”? If I look at Shoigu’s work, i do not yet know if he will be a great military leader, but i can say for sure he is a professional.

Posted by: HEL | Sep 2 2023 19:06 utc | 23

The mercenaries are running away too.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 2 2023 18:08 utc | 1
Someone a while ago said Ukraine would be flooded with cheap mercenaries from third world countries. But people in those third world countries can be pretty smart (about 40 IQ points smarter than my friends in the west, when it comes to basic self preservation) and they have better things to do than die for cheap. It’s not a video game where you just convert money into cheap units.
But I’d love to see a parody—or rather, a true to the real world version—of the original Command & Conquer game where GDI (the americans) bombs its allies’ gas pipes, starts wars in peaceful countries, poisons millions of civilians with uranium, force conscripts people at gunpoint and sends them unarmed into minefields, has refrigerator planes full of organs flying off for big cash, and never goes anywhere near the fighting.

Posted by: Jusses | Sep 2 2023 19:17 utc | 25

I am watching the BBC series about WW1, that Scorpion recommended in the general thread. The might of German industrial production is shown to be far ahead of that of France and England. A great quote “In Britain Guns and Shells were still being produced by a system designed for small armies and small wars”. Just like the Western arms industry producing for small short wars against weak opponents while prioritizing profiteering. In 1915, the British and French were rationing shells, being overwhelmed by the much better supplied Germans. In the East, the Russians didn’t even have enough guns for their soldiers.
Sounds a lot like the Western arms industry against the might of Russian industrial production? A lot like Ukrainian guns being short of shells and their army with everything else? With the next stage of German (and European) deindustrialization underway, the difference will only get greater. The only reasons that the Allies won WW1 was the tightness of the blockade against Germany which slowly throttled its industry and population, and the entry of the US. The recent Western attempt at a blockade has failed and Russia has the industrial strength of China at its back as well as its own massive resource endowments.
Corelli Barnett (The Audit of War) put the bankruptcy of the UK down to its inability to develop a machine tool industry, which meant it had to import so much of the weapons of war – denuding its treasury. After WW1, during which it did painfully develop such an industry it let it go to waste between the wars. Germany could produce all it needed for the war at home in both world wars (greatly aided by the taking of the advanced Czech arms industry in WW2), an ability it has been throwing away for decades.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2023 19:19 utc | 27

@Posted by: Jusses | Sep 2 2023 19:17 utc | 13
Shooting goat herders for cash is a hell of a lot easier than taking on the Russian army. Mercenaries have tended to play little role in modern warfare between advanced nations, extensive ideological programming (basic training) and nationalist fervour (plus a fair degree of coercion) is required to get people to fight such wars. For the Wagners it is the possibility of release after serving or even redemption in death.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2023 19:25 utc | 29

My guess is russia let’s it pause all the way till elections and the gas contracts run out. Then it’s bad news for pro empire politicians in the US, and really bad for Europe who won’t be able to pretend they’ve stopped using russian energy much more.
Sorry guys, no big arrows I think.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 2 2023 18:08 utc | 1
Good first comment. I’d say you’re probably right, but it’s a tricky situation so anything could send it out of control before the elections.
My guess is Putin is waiting to see if he gets a new group to negotiate with before going all in. China’s likely on the same page. It ain’t sexy but it’s wise given the risks to humanity.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 2 2023 19:26 utc | 31

any creative ideas on how to deal with this aussie drones?
Sypaq Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System
Posted by: james | Sep 2 2023 18:16 utc | 2

A drone based Super Soaker?

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 2 2023 19:27 utc | 33

Posted by: HEL | Sep 2 2023 19:06 utc | 12
You know the saying “Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics”? If I look at Shoigu’s work, i do not yet know if he will be a great military leader, but i can say for sure he is a professional.
Response: No doubt Sergei Shoigu is a professional. He has done an outstanding job in living up to being a “Defense” minister. His defensive decisions are now shredding the AFU at the zero line.
However, I doubt his offensive capabilities since he has shredded Russia’s best offensive commanders. This is the report from multiple of them.
I suspect that Shoigu’s prejudice against the more agressive types which make the better offensive commanders is so engrained, that Putin will have to eventually appoint a separate and independent “Offense Minister” or have Shoigu to step aside.

Posted by: young | Sep 2 2023 19:40 utc | 35

@ Due West | Sep 2 2023 18:59 utc | 10
good response and i agree with you at the end too.. thanks..

Posted by: james | Sep 2 2023 19:46 utc | 37

The citizens of Donetsk would certainly appreciate some kind of offensive that would finally end the shelling of their city and murder of their families.

Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 2 2023 19:51 utc | 39

Dima says that Russia is in serious situation, regarding the situation in Robotyne.
Ukraine is planning to launch a tank breakthrough.
This is very significant and terrible.
Russia shall have to use nuclear weapon.

Posted by: simplex | Sep 2 2023 19:56 utc | 41

Military summary/Dima seems to think that AFU will launch a large attack with tanks south, between Verbove and Novopokrivka towards the village Ocheretuvate, with some secondary attacks to the east and west. And RU is deploying an entire army from Kupyansk to that line.
It’s easy to think that Pentagon has ordered them to launch a last-ditch attack with all tanks. It goes deep into speculation but it really depends on AFU ability to secure Robotyne, Novopokrivka Verbove and the line south and north of it, and where if anywhere there is RU reserves. But considering the defensive posture of RU, it’s probable that they will settle for defending against AFU counter-offensives in Kupyansk sector, and they know the AFU is making their last ditch effort between Robotyne and Verbove which could be decisive which warrants deploying another army.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2023 19:57 utc | 43

RU is strengthening their position in Robotyne to repel the attack, but for AFU it is the thing that could break the camel’s back.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2023 19:59 utc | 45

Posted by: young | Sep 2 2023 19:40 utc | 18
###########
Not saying that Putin is nepotistic but he has vacationed with Shoigu and Medvedev before.
I think any distance between these men is strictly for optics. If you told me that Putin and Shoigu had dinner together every Sunday, I would believe it.
Now, just because Putin likes him doesn’t mean Putin thinks he is the best man for the job. But it may mean something just as important. Putin implicitly trusts Shoigu to spend time with him outside of work. And at Putin’s level, having someone you trust can be more valuable than someone who is a savant. Lay people like us are attracted to the big moves, the dramatic moments. We tend to overlook and disregard the thousands of mundane and quiet actions that contribute to the end victory.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 2 2023 20:01 utc | 47

Slavyangrad reports….
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/61490
As mentioned before by us, the Ukrainian labour force is in chaos. With the government taking many out of the labour force for conscription and forced labour, the economy cannot function anymore.
Strana (https://ctrana.news/news/444137-pochemu-v-ukraine-v-poslednie-mesjatsy-stali-zaderzhivat-i-rezat-zarplaty.html) made another comprehensive analysis of the situation. While there are many vacancies which companies cannot fill in, wage growth doesn’t happen. Not even that, only 56% of Ukrainians are received the full wages they are entitled to. There is nothing to pay people with.
There is an illusory number of people registered as unemployed. This is because men are afraid of being caught by the military enlistment kidnappers and sent to the front once they register. Even with millions of women fleeing the country to abroad, only 28% of those registered as unemployed are men. Also being officially registered as unemployed is pointless: you can get as much as the minimum wage (circa 168 euro) per month.
Ukrainian authorities paint a rosy picture where the economy is “recovering” and more and more vacancies are available, but this is mainly due to more and more staff being forcibly mobilized or fleeing the country. In order to fight this and guarantee their staff will be able to work, companies are turning to solutions such as hiring people who are more than 60 years old.
Third, many people can’t register as unemployed as they were never employed. More and more Ukrainians work in the grey market, so to not pay taxes and to not appear on any sort of registers that can be used to forcibly mobilize people. Almost 20% of Ukraine’s labour force work unofficially already.
This is a very dystopic picture, so one might think that Ukraine is about to collapse and we don’t need to do anything. In fact Ukraine completely ceased to exist as a functional country, but continues to be propped by continuous cash transfers, that already exceeded the country’s pre war GDP, from western countries. Those can just print money out of thin air, send to Ukraine and make their own population pay the costs through devaluation and inflation.
As I have repeatedly stated…. this war could continue for quite some time…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 2 2023 20:10 utc | 49

Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 2 2023 19:51 utc | 20
Posted by: simplex | Sep 2 2023 19:56 utc | 21
#########
The shelling won’t stop until there is a new government in Kiev. The Ukrainians are launching drone attacks into Russia proper and Crimea. The attacks won’t stop until the high-level attackers are stopped. Safety and peace are ideals. We do not live in an ideal world.
Ukraine has been planning “successful” offensive maneuvers for 18 months now. How many of those have come to fruition? And how many Wunder Waffe have been promised to be “game changers”?
I’ll believe in the competency and tactical excellence of the Ukrainians when they demonstrate it, and not before.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 2 2023 20:10 utc | 51

@21 simplex
Well it’s a good thing your not in charge of anything. Those nukes are reserved for the previously announced 300 thousand strong nato force supposedly being assembled around Poland
It also depends on nato having the balls to advance across the dniepers still functioning bridges to bring the fight to their enemy…why else would they still be up? It’s a trap and the bait is the quagmired Russian army.
The odds of that rise the longer this stalemate goes on. Just one push they’ll think and the whole rotten structure will fall down….

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 2 2023 20:13 utc | 53

@16 Posted by: Ahenobarbus
My guess is Putin is waiting to see if he gets a new group to negotiate with before going all in.
Putin will not go to negotiations that mention the ’91 border. Or “withdrawal of troops to the borders of Ukraine” (as mantioned in the last German Initiative). Moreover, the West is labelled as non-negotiable, so there is simply no reason for him to “wait”

Posted by: Koba | Sep 2 2023 20:14 utc | 55

Finally a comment which acknowledges Shiogu’s writ…
Posted by: HEL | Sep 2 2023 19:06 utc | 12
You know the saying “Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics”? If I look at Shoigu’s work, i do not yet know if he will be a great military leader, but i can say for sure he is a professional.
Response: No doubt Sergei Shoigu is a professional. He has done an outstanding job in living up to being a “Defense” minister.
As Defense Minister, Shiogu’s job is to ensure the armed forces have what they need: fuel, rations, medical equipment, MEDEVAC, Military Hospitals, ammo, drones, tanks, AFVs, IFVs, trucks, rail transport…etc:
Shiogu has no role, neither has he expertise in military matters, He has his current job due to his proven organizational skills. He is supported in this by Dimitry Medvedev..
Military strategy and tactics are the provenance of STAVKA, led by Gerasimov..
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 2 2023 20:18 utc | 57

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 2 2023 20:01 utc | 24
“Now, just because Putin likes him doesn’t mean Putin thinks he is the best man for the job. But it may mean something just as important. Putin implicitly trusts Shoigu to spend time with him outside of work. And at Putin’s level, having someone you trust can be more valuable than someone who is a savant. Lay people like us are attracted to the big moves, the dramatic moments. We tend to overlook and disregard the thousands of mundane and quiet actions that contribute to the end victory.”
Response: It does appear that Putin trusts Shoigu. And that may be most important from his perspective. Putin has been betrayed before by those he thought he could trust. Maybe, that makes Shoigu’s loyalty even more valuable to Putin.
However, if you are in the process of fighting a war eventually you are going to need to back your offensive commanders and officers. Otherwise, they just are not going to risk their neck against both the enemy and their command. Maybe, Shoigu can change and learn to balance the offensive component of the RF. But, realize he has been operating the way he has for 11 years and he is 68 years old.
Actually, it may be impossible for him to change even though he may have taken some serious chewing outs by Putin himself.
Russia’s offense has been to straighten the zero line and to slowly advance forward. Using this single approach has its vulnerabilities. Over time the West will find the weaknesses of such a tactic and exploit them to Russia’s hurt.

Posted by: young | Sep 2 2023 20:20 utc | 59

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 2 2023 20:10 utc | 25
So employees are rapidly taken out of companies for mobilization, leading to military age males avoid employment offices, leading to shortage of workers only getting worse, leading to companies resorting more to shadow economy measures (envelope wage), leading to decreasing tax revenues, leading to falling currency, leading to more inflation, leading to more failed state situation. Companies are doing worse, no prospect of raising salaries as fewer pay in full.
It’s possible that Lvov could be supported by “freebie” imports from the west, but somehow I doubt that is any sort of significant remedy in this case. Poland will probably absorb Lwow eventually, seems to be the only logical conclusion. Effectively whatever remains of Ukraine will be very, very weak buffer state.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2023 20:21 utc | 61

February 24, 2023

The president’s office released a special address of nearly 15 minutes titled “The Year of Invincibility” for the anniversary.

September 1, 2023

Russia has always been and remains “absolutely invincible,” President Vladimir Putin told a group of students at an open lesson marking the start of the academic year on Friday.

That V.V., I swear, has quite a sense of humor.

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 2 2023 20:24 utc | 63

Anyone paying attention in Syria? Seems all hell has broken loose, hard to figure out who is who, new element is Arab tribes now, and TG posts are all over the place on who is on who’s side, CIG/ Telegram seems to be the most focused. I could never figure out what the Kurds were up to at any time in the last 30 years, but I think I got it, they are the spoiler, working for the USA and themselves to keeps the wars in area going forever. It’s their bread and butter at this point.
In the SMO seems the real counter offensive, or reboot of the old counter offensive, starts now with a full court press on Russia – Ukraine and Syria at once. No wonder there’s a virtual blackout on news coming out of Russian social media, the big fun turkey shoot of the summer is over, the Empire has regrouped the turkeys into a juggernaut, one last onslaught before the mud.
And, I’d say the Kupiansk offensive is over for the year, maybe it was always a feint, looks like a rough fall season is building for RF.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 2 2023 20:25 utc | 65

My guess is Putin is waiting to see if he gets a new group to negotiate with before going all in.
Putin will not go to negotiations that mention the ’91 border. Or “withdrawal of troops to the borders of Ukraine” (as mantioned in the last German Initiative). Moreover, the West is labelled as non-negotiable, so there is simply no reason for him to “wait”
Posted by: Koba | Sep 2 2023 20:14 utc | 28
You’re right about Putin. He’s very shrewd and if he gets to the table he won’t settle for more bullshit. Why should he?
However, on America, I think you’re a bit shortsighted. As you probably know, Koba, America is not America. Rather it’s a constantly changing thing, like all reality. The pace of change has accelerated dramatically since 2020. Anything is possible now.
Putin is trained in Soviet materialism. He knows how to watch the small changes until they become qualitative changes.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 2 2023 20:27 utc | 67

Re: LoveDonbass | Sep 2 2023 20:10 utc | 26
you wrote “The shelling [of Donetsk] won’t stop until there is a new government in Kiev.”
Wouldn’t a Russian offensive that pushed the Ukrainian lines back to the point where Donetsk was out of artillery range cause a significant reduction of the daily murder of civilians there?

Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 2 2023 20:27 utc | 69

Russia’s offense has been to straighten the zero line and to slowly advance forward. Using this single approach has its vulnerabilities. Over time the West will find the weaknesses of such a tactic and exploit them to Russia’s hurt.
Posted by: young | Sep 2 2023 20:20 utc | 30
############
Time is more on Russia’s side than it is on America’s, certainly with the looming uncertainty of an election incoming.
I just don’t do the whole blackpill Doomer thing. And I don’t do the “blame the one frontman for everything” game either. It’s not all Putin or all Shoigu. They are in charge of massive enterprises, with dozens upon dozens of advisors, assistants, etc.
Shoigu’s specialty is logistics. It’s reasonable to assume that he leaves battlefield strategy to the experienced battlefield commanders.
Just because the Russians aren’t doing what people in the ChairForce think should be done, doesn’t mean they don’t have a decent plan of their own. The Russians tend to underpromote what they are doing, while the West is in the habit of writing checks they cannot cash. Both approaches influence how we interpret what is happening in the SMO. We’re still not sitting ankle-deep in a wet trench, trying to sleep under the booming of artillery shelling.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 2 2023 20:33 utc | 71

My guess is Russia let’s it pause all the way till elections and the gas contracts run out. Then it’s bad news for pro empire politicians in the US, and really bad for Europe who won’t be able to pretend they’ve stopped using Russian energy much more.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 2 2023 18:08 utc | 1
Yes. That would amount to counter-sanctions.
We don’t know how remnant Ukraine will be neutralised. We do know that will happen. When that’s done, maybe before, the Russians will return to their 2021 European security demands. Moving missile bases back etc.
The Europeans will say no.
The Russians, to the great irritation of many of their people, are still honouring existing contracts. Irritating for many Russians because they are supplying energy and materials that keep the EU economies going and thus enables the EU to send over weapons that will kill Russian soldiers.
On the face of it that doesn’t make sense. But it is important for the Russians, as they strengthen trading links elsewhere, to keep their reputation as reliable suppliers who hold to contracts. So they haven’t stopped supplying Europe. Yet.
As those contracts run out they can simply not be renewed. Putin said at the start of the SMO that Russia would honour existing contracts and leave consideration of renewal for later.
Soon it’s going to be that “Later”. If we refuse to move missile bases back etc why should the Russians keep supplying us with the fossil fuels and raw materials we need?
And if they don’t, how shall we cope?
It’s only an “if” but it’s there. I see no European politicians considering that “if”.
At present the self-imposed EU sanctions are harmful enough to us. Counter-sanctions would be worse. Why no discussion in Europe on that possibility? Are we still just sleepwalking our way through all this?

Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 2 2023 20:36 utc | 73

Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 2 2023 20:27 utc | 35
###############
At what cost? Remember, you need a lot more manpower to go on offense than to stay on defense.
I believe that people in Donetsk are welcome to travel deeper into Russia if they want. The Russian military isn’t forcing them to stay put under the shelling.
You’re right to identify a problem but your solution is a small bandaid on a gaping wound. Pushing the Ukrainians back isn’t going to stop them from attacking the Donetsk. Just like Crimea voting to join Russia hasn’t gotten Ukraine to accept that they have lost that territory. Likewise, the Ukrainian leadership refuses to accept any loss of territory to the Russians during the SMO. As far as Kiev is concerned, those people in Donetsk will remain target practice as they have been since 2014.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 2 2023 20:37 utc | 75

…>No “Big Arrow” moves ….
IIRC the only calls for Big Arrow moves came from Douglas Macgregor and similar.
Since Feb 2022 Russia has not once given any intimation of what it intends except “demilitarisation” and “denazification”.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 2 2023 20:52 utc | 77

@33 “I could never figure out what the Kurds were up to at any time in the last 30 years..”
In Xenophon’s ,”Anabasis” he described the 10,000 (Greek mercenaries that were hired by Cyrus the Younger of Persia for a civil war) retreat after a disastrous battle in Persia -fighting, escaping Anatolia to return home to Greece.
Xenophon was a cunning, talented , smart officer-in 401 BC they entered a valley, it was Kurdish territory and they were the toughest fighters Xenophon and his men ever faced. It was so rough-don’t forget these Greek hoplites in the phalanx was nearly invincible in those times-they decided to retreat and go around the Krudish territory.
That was 2,400 years ago-they are tough mother fuckers..and survivors.

Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2023 21:03 utc | 79

If Mediazona’s count of Russian casualties in Ukraine is accurate – and it probably is – Russian losses tapered off over the month of August to the point they’re now hardly worse than American ones at the height of the Iraq War.
This suggests the AFU is beginning to collapse.
First of all the bottom line – Mediazona has confirmed a mere 133 Russian military deaths in the first three weeks of August (their data only goes to August 23rd right now). This is on top of a long-term downward trend in Russian casualties since the winter.
Mediazona’s total count is slightly over 30,000 for the entire war right now.
How do I know it’s accurate? Russian admissions. Recently Gen. Teplinsky, head of the VDV, stated that 8500 Russian paratroopers had been wounded and returned to duty over the course of the war.
Mediazona has 1,898 VDV soldiers confirmed as having been killed in action in Ukraine.
In Vietnam, the US suffered 58,000 dead and some 300,000 wounded, half of whom were not hospitalized.
As such the KIA-WIA/RTD ratio seems quite similar between the two wars, which is logical.
So there’s no reason to believe there’s some huge pool of extra Russian casualties out there. If there is, the Russian high command doesn’t seem to know about them.
For context, the two deadliest months of the Iraq War saw 137 and 126 Coalition fatalities.
Now consider this:
1. Four Iraqi soldiers died for every Coalition fatality in Iraq. There is no such “second army” for Russia in Ukraine to “hide” the true scope of losses.
2. Ukraine fields a conventional force enjoying the full support of NATO. The Iraqi insurgents did not.
(before anyone asks, yes, Mediazona is counting Wagner troops – they’re a rather large portion of Russian losses, too)
So what does this mean? Well, I wrote a thread on military collapse due to mass casualties a while ago, you can review it here:
Using Nazi Germany as a case study, when military collapse sets in it leads to a rapid fall in combat power as more and more of the force is made up of civilians in uniform who are physically and mentally unfit for combat.
In the German case this occurred on the defensive, leading to an enormous spike in casualties as the Allied armies steamrolled forward. Germany lost the equivalent of a division a day in the last year of the war.
Ukraine appears to be quite unique in having gone into military collapse on the -offensive- due to political considerations and Russia playing into those considerations.
In that case I’d expect a somewhat different effect – a huge drop in opposing-force casualties and few gains.
This makes logical sense for a force that is herding poorly-trained and unfit conscripts into attacks – they’re going to die in huge numbers and accomplish nothing.
That’s precisely what we’ve seen in Ukraine over the last four months of the “Great Counteroffensive.”
By the month of August, the purpose-built and trained formations Ukraine had assembled for the counteroffensive had been ground down into shadows of their former selves and reconstituted with press-ganged conscripts – but were still attacking.
his precipitous decline in the quality of Ukrainian manpower is confirmed by secondary sources. Just as an example, a 71 year-old Ukrainian soldier recently reported for training in Germany.
Original behind a paywall at FT, see:
The upshot of this is that Ukraine – and NATO with it – is sleepwalking into catastrophe once the Russians decide to go on the offensive. They can. And they will.
They’ve been generating forces for a year now that we’ve barely seen. But more on that later.
https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1697857278484033629

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2023 21:08 utc | 81

Armchair Warlord tweets…
If Mediazona’s count of Russian casualties in Ukraine is accurate – and it probably is – Russian losses tapered off over the month of August to the point they’re now hardly worse than American ones at the height of the Iraq War.
This suggests the AFU is beginning to collapse.
This precipitous decline in the quality of Ukrainian manpower is confirmed by secondary sources. Just as an example, a 71 year-old Ukrainian soldier recently reported for training in Germany.
The upshot of this is that Ukraine – and NATO with it – is sleepwalking into catastrophe once the Russians decide to go on the offensive. They can. And they will.
They’ve been generating forces for a year now that we’ve barely seen. But more on that later.
By the month of August, the purpose-built and trained formations Ukraine had assembled for the counteroffensive had been ground down into shadows of their former selves and reconstituted with press-ganged conscripts – but were still attacking.
In case -YOU- want to try to “make the aggressor lose,” the Ukrainian Foreign Legion is still recruiting last I checked.
Pro-Ukraine fanatics are a fascinating case study of how systematic propaganda can not only manufacture permissiveness towards government policies, but also radicalise a more susceptible wing of the population into a self-sustaining asset for third-party interests.
Another question for the Pentagon, of dozens: is anyone in NATO doing independent monitoring and auditing of Ukraine’s compliance with the Law of Armed Conflict? What consequences are there for Ukrainian units found to be committing war crimes?
Answers: no and none, apparently.
Ukrainians have official orders to EXECUTE Russian paratroopers on the spot when they surrender
It is only a minute part of the detailed combat order that was found on Ukrainians eliminated near Rabotino
Now…. how many Russian paratroopers/marines will take as many Ukies with them, rather than surrender….??
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 2 2023 21:23 utc | 83

Regardless whether you believe Mediazona has 100 % accurate numbers or not, the methodology they use stays the same. That means the relations of numbers is correct and they are correct.
The highest casualties occurred between beginning of January to end of March, they started gradually declining, seeing a small spike mid-May (when Artemovsk fell), started gradually declining further, seeing a spike in mid-June, and thereafter have been declining to and under lowest point.
Ukraine ability to deal damage is degrading to a low state, which bodes well for Russia and bad for AFU.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2023 21:32 utc | 85

Media Zone is a typical pro-Western publication. Included in the list of foreign agents (FARA analogue)

Posted by: Koba | Sep 2 2023 21:41 utc | 87

@ LightYearsFromHome | Sep 2 2023 20:25 utc | 33

. . . they are the spoiler, working for the USA and themselves to keeps the wars in area going forever. It’s their bread and butter at this point.

The Israelis are heavily involved with the Kurds too, e.g., they are interweaved with them in northern Iraq.

Posted by: majoab | Sep 2 2023 21:48 utc | 89

@43 unimperator
Just think infantry heavy attacks coupled with unrestricted cluster bomb use by Russia. It’s not a pretty picture.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 2 2023 21:52 utc | 91

Because everyone says there will be a pause and nothing will happen until spring, I think means there will be a WINTER OFFENSIVE. Last year there was going to be a big winter offensive, but wasn’t because it wasn’t cold enough. RUSSians WIN WARS IN WINTER. It will be the WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT. Energy prices up, inflation up further, the collapse of free credit card credit, the real estate market, and I think Bitcoin is a Dem/ Musk pyramid scheme to break the dollar. God bless this unholy mess with reason.

Posted by: JimG | Sep 2 2023 22:00 utc | 93

re: Burisma
I don´t have the time to dig into/fully understand the Biden/Burisma riddle as of now.
So I am unclear how far this WaPo piece is possibly leaving out things or weighing in againt usual custom in such matters:
“An FBI source, a Burisma deal, the Bidens and details that don’t match up”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/30/an-fbi-source-burisma-deal-bidens-details-that-dont-match-up/
p.s. what´s about that chubby agreeable UKR fellow from the embassy whose English was pretty good and who gave some interviews? I don´t see his name.

Posted by: AG | Sep 2 2023 22:35 utc | 95

Kurds are turds, land pirates from way back. They did the dirty work for the Turks with the Armenians in return for land and other pillage. Turds in Syria mostly are a result of that.

Posted by: Ново З | Sep 2 2023 22:54 utc | 97

A letter to me from a Ukrainian who escaped the Donbass as things were tough there. Then, as Russia encircled Kyiv, fled in the cold in a harrowing journey to reach Poland. She is now a Ukrainian ex-pat, and does not intend to return. 26 years old.
Initially, the idea of ​​Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union in neutrality in order for Ukraine to have a balance should be the interest of 30% of the West 30% of Russia 40% of Ukraine, and that’s how easy it was to break this balance. And when Zelensky says that they will fight to the last Ukrainian, what will this lead to? That the last three cripples will raise our flag somewhere in the Crimea, and then what? No economy, no demographics, and no life. Now, what percentage of all territories are mined, and during our lifetime it will not even be possible to use these territories normally, but how many Cities have been destroyed no one will ever stop them, so there was the only way last year when it was proposed that in the agreement Russia would use 99 years of renting Crimea neutral status for Donbass, and Ukraine is neutral and at the same time Kharkiv Zaporozhye Kherson region is returned to Ukraine, currently the closest. It’s November when some kind of peace plan can be promoted, but the presidential one is unlikely to be implemented, so they should have a choice or they will have to remove it

Posted by: Dante | Sep 2 2023 23:01 utc | 99