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The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-213
Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:
> My excuse for posting only three pieces this week Yes and no. After a rather rainy summer around my block it finally warmed up a bit. So I got a bit lazy. But I also read a lot which may help with future pieces. – b. <
> Delaying deliveries of Abrams tanks could ensure that it enters service after the current period of intensified hostilities has ended, after which the vehicles will be less likely to suffer losses which could affect the class’ reputation – or that of the American defence sector. <
—
Other Issues:
Middle East:
Spies:
Europe:
Finance:
Censorship:
Use as open (not Ukraine related) thread …
Expert: Armenian authorities are trying to oust Russia from the region (VERELQ, Hayk Khalatyan, September 9, 2023 — in Russian)
By concentrating its troops, does Azerbaijan want to put pressure on the Armenian side or is it preparing for a major escalation? Will Russia, the West or Iran be able to stop Azerbaijan? What is causing the serious crisis in Armenian–Russian relations?
Caucasus expert Karen Igityan answered these and other questions of the information-analytical center VERELQ [based in Yerevan, Armenia — S].
Azerbaijan is concentrating troops and equipment near the borders of Armenia and Artsakh [Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh — S]. Is this an attempt to put pressure on the Armenian side and the mediators in the negotiations or preparation for a major escalation or even a large-scale war?
All the indicators that are present during preparation of large-scale military operations are there; Azerbaijan is clearly preparing for war. But at the same time, we must keep in mind that this very demonstrative readiness may not be real preparation for war, but only intimidation, that is, the threat of war. But, of course, we have no right not to take into account that Azerbaijan is actually preparing for war.
The fact is that the Armenian–Azerbaijani, or more broadly, the Armenian–Turkish conflict is mistakenly perceived through the prism of the Artsakh one. On the contrary, it is the Artsakh conflict that is part of the larger Armenian–Turkish confrontation that began a thousand years ago. Its essence lies in the fact that the newcomer nomadic element has already settled in these lands and is engaged in systematically expelling the local population and exterminating it. This is the essence of this conflict. One of the manifestations of this conflict is the Artsakh conflict. If we look through this prism, Azerbaijan’s goals are obvious. That is, they are trying to capitalize on the moment of Armenia’s weakness—and it is clear that with these people in power Armenia is permanently in a moment of weakness—and, accordingly, to realize their goals to the maximum. Their goals are also known. It’s the occupation of Armenian territories and the expulsion of the Armenian population. The more they can do this, the more territories they can occupy, the more people they can expel, the more they will consider that they have completed their tasks.
Against the background of Azerbaijan’s preparation for a new aggression against Armenia, we see a serious crisis in Armenian–Russian relations. Moreover, in recent days the Armenian authorities have made a number of steps and statements that Moscow clearly regarded as anti-Russian. What is the cause of this?
De facto, the Armenian authorities, even before this team came to power, had anti-Russian sentiments, worked in structures that were not, to put it mildly, sympathetic to Russia and, accordingly, when they came to power, they immediately began to pursue a pro-Western line, an anti-Russian line, that is, also an anti-Armenian one. We won’t talk about what they did in internal Armenian issues—about the attack on the church, on the army. But if we talk about anti-Russian actions, those took place immediately after they came to power. Among those were the arrest of the acting CSTO Secretary-General, SWAT raids on Russian companies, and the live broadcast of Alexey Navalnyy, the most toxic political figure for the Russian authorities.
Now, the authorities are saying that Russia itself is leaving the region, but in fact we see that the de facto authorities of Armenia are trying to oust Russia. That is, they de facto ceased their participation in the CSTO, de jure remaining in this organization, intensified their contacts with the West, they are holding military exercises with the Americans right now, they recalled their representative from the CSTO, etc. That is, the Armenian authorities continue their anti-Russian line.
Their policy, directed against the national interests of Armenia, Russia and Iran, has already led Armenia to a big war and to great losses, and now, on the eve of another big war, which is likely to occur, they continue and even intensify this policy of theirs.
Will global or regional players—Russia, the West or Iran—be able to stop Azerbaijan?
I don’t think that the West will attempt to stop Baku, because, overall, the occupation of Syunik, that is, the control of Azerbaijan and Turkey over Syunik, fits into the plans of the West, since Iran will be isolated as a result.
Accordingly, Iran understands all of this and will resist it in every possible way. Question is, will Iran will be able to resist it precisely at the moment when hostilities begin? Here, of course, there are doubts, because at that very moment some kind of civil confrontation could begin inside Iran, as it happened during the September aggression of Azerbaijan against Armenia in 2022. When, the very next day, mass unrest began in Iran, clearly instigated by, let’s call it, a pro-Western network. Therefore, it is difficult to guess what state Iran will be in by that moment. But if Iran is in a stable state and doesn’t have other active fronts open, it is likely that Iran will react quite harshly.
As for Russia, it must also be understood that the Russian Federation is in a very large military confrontation on the territory of the Ukraine with, essentially, the entire West, which is participating, even if in a measured way, to the extent that, in their opinion, can lead to the defeat of Russia in this matter. Russia is overexerting itself because of this conflict, perhaps there will be another mobilization in Russia, because of this, Russia objectively does not have the resources to respond today.
But if the rumors about the October mobilization come true, then after some time Russia will have sufficient resources to respond to the developments in the South Caucasus as well. Both the Azerbaijani authorities and the de facto Armenian authorities won’t be able to ignore that.
Posted by: S | Sep 11 2023 9:01 utc | 155
Expert: Armenian authorities are trying to oust Russia from the region (VERELQ, Hayk Khalatyan, September 9, 2023 — in Russian)
By concentrating its troops, does Azerbaijan want to put pressure on the Armenian side or is it preparing for a major escalation? Will Russia, the West or Iran be able to stop Azerbaijan? What is causing the serious crisis in Armenian–Russian relations?
Caucasus expert Karen Igityan answered these and other questions of the information-analytical center VERELQ [based in Yerevan, Armenia — S].
Azerbaijan is concentrating troops and equipment near the borders of Armenia and Artsakh [Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh — S]. Is this an attempt to put pressure on the Armenian side and the mediators in the negotiations or preparation for a major escalation or even a large-scale war?
All the indicators that are present during preparation of large-scale military operations are there; Azerbaijan is clearly preparing for war. But at the same time, we must keep in mind that this very demonstrative readiness may not be real preparation for war, but only intimidation, that is, the threat of war. But, of course, we have no right not to take into account that Azerbaijan is actually preparing for war.
The fact is that the Armenian–Azerbaijani, or more broadly, the Armenian–Turkish conflict is mistakenly perceived through the prism of the Artsakh one. On the contrary, it is the Artsakh conflict that is part of the larger Armenian–Turkish confrontation that began a thousand years ago. Its essence lies in the fact that the newcomer nomadic element has already settled in these lands and is engaged in systematically expelling the local population and exterminating it. This is the essence of this conflict. One of the manifestations of this conflict is the Artsakh conflict. If we look through this prism, Azerbaijan’s goals are obvious. That is, they are trying to capitalize on the moment of Armenia’s weakness—and it is clear that with these people in power Armenia is permanently in a moment of weakness—and, accordingly, to realize their goals to the maximum. Their goals are also known. It’s the occupation of Armenian territories and the expulsion of the Armenian population. The more they can do this, the more territories they can occupy, the more people they can expel, the more they will consider that they have completed their tasks.
Against the background of Azerbaijan’s preparation for a new aggression against Armenia, we see a serious crisis in Armenian–Russian relations. Moreover, in recent days the Armenian authorities have made a number of steps and statements that Moscow clearly regarded as anti-Russian. What is the cause of this?
De facto, the Armenian authorities, even before this team came to power, had anti-Russian sentiments, worked in structures that were not, to put it mildly, sympathetic to Russia and, accordingly, when they came to power, they immediately began to pursue a pro-Western line, an anti-Russian line, that is, also an anti-Armenian one. We won’t talk about what they did in internal Armenian issues—about the attack on the church, on the army. But if we talk about anti-Russian actions, those took place immediately after they came to power. Among those were the arrest of the acting CSTO Secretary-General, SWAT raids on Russian companies, and the live broadcast of Alexey Navalnyy, the most toxic political figure for the Russian authorities.
Now, the authorities are saying that Russia itself is leaving the region, but in fact we see that the de facto authorities of Armenia are trying to oust Russia. That is, they de facto ceased their participation in the CSTO, de jure remaining in this organization, intensified their contacts with the West, they are holding military exercises with the Americans right now, they recalled their representative from the CSTO, etc. That is, the Armenian authorities continue their anti-Russian line.
Their policy, directed against the national interests of Armenia, Russia and Iran, has already led Armenia to a big war and to great losses, and now, on the eve of another big war, which is likely to occur, they continue and even intensify this policy of theirs.
Will global or regional players—Russia, the West or Iran—be able to stop Azerbaijan?
I don’t think that the West will attempt to stop Baku, because, overall, the occupation of Syunik, that is, the control of Azerbaijan and Turkey over Syunik, fits into the plans of the West, since Iran will be isolated as a result.
Accordingly, Iran understands all of this and will resist it in every possible way. Question is, will Iran will be able to resist it precisely at the moment when hostilities begin? Here, of course, there are doubts, because at that very moment some kind of civil confrontation could begin inside Iran, as it happened during the September aggression of Azerbaijan against Armenia in 2022. When, the very next day, mass unrest began in Iran, clearly instigated by, let’s call it, a pro-Western network. Therefore, it is difficult to guess what state Iran will be in by that moment. But if Iran is in a stable state and doesn’t have other active fronts open, it is likely that Iran will react quite harshly.
As for Russia, it must also be understood that the Russian Federation is in a very large military confrontation on the territory of the Ukraine with, essentially, the entire West, which is participating, even if in a measured way, to the extent that, in their opinion, can lead to the defeat of Russia in this matter. Russia is overexerting itself because of this conflict, perhaps there will be another mobilization in Russia, because of this, Russia objectively does not have the resources to respond today.
But if the rumors about the October mobilization come true, then after some time Russia will have sufficient resources to respond to the developments in the South Caucasus as well. Both the Azerbaijani authorities and the de facto Armenian authorities won’t be able to ignore that.
Posted by: S | Sep 11 2023 9:01 utc | 156
Posted by: petergrfstrm | Sep 11 2023 9:47 utc | 80
And I agree with those who opposed Scorpion about this comparison of managerial classes to be completely misleading. Fascist or whatever way one describes it simply fits well to the western case but not at all to China.
First, did you read the article? Probably not. If so, you would know that what he describes in both polities is beyond fascism the way the word has been used for decades. And that is not his point – affixing labels – rather uncovering how modern states are run by the Managerial Class, which is both a way of doing things and a mentality. Again, this is beyond fascism per se.
That said, re fascism, try this quote from Xi Thought for size:
“Party, government, military, civilian, academic; east, west, south, north, and center, the Party leads everything.”
– CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping
Then read his explanation of how the Party works, with cells in every major business, and the significance of Xi’s role as CCP General Secretary.
So: some disagree with the article whilst others like myself find it deeply clarifying. Unbeknownst to me, an old friend who publishes a geopolitical aggregator site (sitrepworld.info) on the same day also stumbled on this same article and had the same reaction. I’ll let him chime in:
Today I’m breaking my pattern of publishing 36 links every day. Instead, I’m featuring a single link, from someone I never heard of before, by the name of N.S. Lyons. It’s long and dense but well worth your full attention. It is the closest attempt I’ve seen to successfully putting together the 100,000 piece puzzle that has riveted our attention for at least the last decade.
The China Convergence: Yes, the West is becoming more like China, by N.S. Lyons
How could our world – so familiar and taken somewhat for granted – have turned into clown world, full of absurdities like infantilist Wokery, crimes of the magnitude of the Covid scam and other gross violations of simple common sense and human decency? Who’s actually in charge and what is their agenda?
I had put it down to TGTS (The Geopolitical Tectonic Shift), which I’ve written about in my recent blog posts. TGTS – the end of the 500 yr era of the European Empire – is still a valid insight, but what N.S. Lyons has observed dates from less than 100 yrs ago.
Together, these two conceptual overlays come close to summing up the whole catastrophe. I urge you to read the essay carefully and then go back and read it again. You won’t regret it.
Indeed, am going to take his advice and read it again. And also other fine essays. BTW, my friend is an old school East Coast ex Army Intelligence Jewish liberal who was a well-known activist for a Democratic One State. He gave up on that a few years ago, finally surrendering to the truth: Israel is not ‘agreement-capable’. He is a staunch fan of both Putin and multipolarity but he too found this article revelatory.
I don’t understand why people get upset about ideas and hurl invective. Immature and unhelpful.
Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 11 2023 14:43 utc | 185
Posted by: petergrfstrm | Sep 11 2023 9:47 utc | 80
And I agree with those who opposed Scorpion about this comparison of managerial classes to be completely misleading. Fascist or whatever way one describes it simply fits well to the western case but not at all to China.
First, did you read the article? Probably not. If so, you would know that what he describes in both polities is beyond fascism the way the word has been used for decades. And that is not his point – affixing labels – rather uncovering how modern states are run by the Managerial Class, which is both a way of doing things and a mentality. Again, this is beyond fascism per se.
That said, re fascism, try this quote from Xi Thought for size:
“Party, government, military, civilian, academic; east, west, south, north, and center, the Party leads everything.”
– CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping
Then read his explanation of how the Party works, with cells in every major business, and the significance of Xi’s role as CCP General Secretary.
So: some disagree with the article whilst others like myself find it deeply clarifying. Unbeknownst to me, an old friend who publishes a geopolitical aggregator site (sitrepworld.info) on the same day also stumbled on this same article and had the same reaction. I’ll let him chime in:
Today I’m breaking my pattern of publishing 36 links every day. Instead, I’m featuring a single link, from someone I never heard of before, by the name of N.S. Lyons. It’s long and dense but well worth your full attention. It is the closest attempt I’ve seen to successfully putting together the 100,000 piece puzzle that has riveted our attention for at least the last decade.
The China Convergence: Yes, the West is becoming more like China, by N.S. Lyons
How could our world – so familiar and taken somewhat for granted – have turned into clown world, full of absurdities like infantilist Wokery, crimes of the magnitude of the Covid scam and other gross violations of simple common sense and human decency? Who’s actually in charge and what is their agenda?
I had put it down to TGTS (The Geopolitical Tectonic Shift), which I’ve written about in my recent blog posts. TGTS – the end of the 500 yr era of the European Empire – is still a valid insight, but what N.S. Lyons has observed dates from less than 100 yrs ago.
Together, these two conceptual overlays come close to summing up the whole catastrophe. I urge you to read the essay carefully and then go back and read it again. You won’t regret it.
Indeed, am going to take his advice and read it again. And also other fine essays. BTW, my friend is an old school East Coast ex Army Intelligence Jewish liberal who was a well-known activist for a Democratic One State. He gave up on that a few years ago, finally surrendering to the truth: Israel is not ‘agreement-capable’. He is a staunch fan of both Putin and multipolarity but he too found this article revelatory.
I don’t understand why people get upset about ideas and hurl invective. Immature and unhelpful.
Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 11 2023 14:43 utc | 186
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