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Russia Is Winning The Industrial Warfare Race
Last year I mocked the media for claiming that 'Russia is running out of' whatever.
> Back in March I had warned that Lies Do Not Win Wars. Here is another practical example.
After allegedly having 'run out of missiles' and, more importantly, patience, the leadership of the Russian Federation decided to de-electrify Ukrainian cities with a 'barrage of missile strikes'. <
Western military commentators have finally started to accept the obvious. Russia is winning and doing so by a large margin.
A similar turn can be seen in dearth of new 'Russia is running out of' stories which get now replaced by acknowledgements that Russia's weapon industries are out-producing the West:
Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say – NY Times Moscow’s missile production now exceeds prewar levels, officials say, leaving Ukraine especially vulnerable this coming winter.
As a result of the sanctions, American officials estimate that Russia was forced to dramatically slow its production of missiles and other weaponry at the start of the war in February 2022 for at least six months. But by the end of 2022, Moscow’s military industrial manufacturing began to pick up speed again, American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose the sensitive assessment now concede. … Before the war, one senior Western defense official said, Russia could make 100 tanks a year; now they are producing 200.
Western officials also believe Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year — double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.
As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West.
Russia’s production costs are also far lower than the West’s, in part because Moscow is sacrificing safety and quality in its effort to build weapons more cheaply, Mr. Salm said. For instance, it costs a Western country $5,000 to $6,000 to make a 155-millimeter artillery round, whereas it costs Russia about $600 to produce a comparable 152-millimeter artillery shell, he said.
I believe that the numbers of current weapon production in Russia, which the New York Times cites, are too low. Consider that back in February the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev spoke of an 'exponential increase' in weapon output:
Medvedev said Moscow had increased military production "by tens of times" at some factories and was closely studying weapons fired into Russian-held areas from the Ukrainian side in an effort to gain an advantage.
I would also argue that sanctions were never really able to hinder Russia's arms industry. No military uses the latest and greatest chips when it comes to making weapons. Putting sanctioning on those is thus pretty useless. Some old Intel 80386 compatible CPU is, correctly programmed, sufficient to manage a modern artillery system. For little money one can get thousands of these in any Asian electronic market.
There are a few exceptions that need special stuff. For some time Russia was behind in the production of night vision equipment. It imported some from France which blocked further transfers. But that issues seems to have been solved. For basic materials and energy Russia has all it needs. It also has well qualified staff to develop and build new weapons.
Five years ago the Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed a number of new weapon systems which were superior to western ones. He also mentioned that same of these were based on "new physical principles" which had been discovered by Russian scientists. At the recent Eastern Economic Forum he repeated that claim:
If one looks into the security sphere, new physical principles weapons will ensure the security of any country in the near historic perspective. We understand this very well and are working on it, Putin said.
(I don't find those sentences in the plenum transcript but trust Sputnik to have it right.)
There is some guessing what Putin might have meant. I thought about it for quite a while but have to admit that I have no clue what he has in mind.
A warning that Russia will outproduce the West was given back in June 2022 when Alex Vershinin of RUSI issued a note about The Return of Industrial Warfare:
The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.
It has become to expensive for the West to regain that capability.
That Russia was running out of stuff was always wishful thinking, not fact based analysis. On that point it took the media more than a year to catch up with reality. On other aspects of the the war, casualty numbers come to mind, the media are still miles behind.
b kindly requests that we do not attack each other. You have a comprehension or disrespect issue.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 15 2023 14:43 utc | 298
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Acco, I don’t ever have any bones to pick with you. I enjoy your input. But on the above topic, it is a very vexed issue (all over the web) and, I think, deserves deeper examination.
Many, many years ago, I was a sysop for a forum when I figured out these following thoughts. A moderator either has to slam down instantly and hard on each and every moral transgression or let some go into the grey zone. It would take massive time and effort and even staff/helpers to police this forum. I mean, where is the line on swearing; surreptitious racism; casual insult; vitriolic excoriation, or as I once described it “the gang rape of @shadowbanned”.
In a forum like this — discussing a war, ffs — and with high troll presence, it is a FANTASY to expect nice behaviour! If B wants to have a blitz cleanout, as he sometimes does, fine. But the rudeness will return unless he enforces it daily.
“Please do not attack others” is an ideal, a request. But what is partisan, fascistic, Ukie trolling if not an attack upon human decency and commonsense? What is a suppositional, condescending, omniscient, bigotted, factually wrong post if not an attack upon good faith by other posters.
As one of the very abrasive types around here, you’ve maybe read my rationale for confronting idiocy. It’s actually congenital! I do it in real life too. Most Australians do, unlike Europeans and nicey nicey Americans (and maybe Dutch emigrants). If I or other “rude” folks were to be banned, c’est la vie. No loss to me, there’ll just be nicer posts with more unchallenged bullshit.
But human nature is such that many folks knee jerk into attack mode when confronted with what they know to be bullshit. Are we to let bullshit just pass? Many (in my books) rightly call it out in areas of their expertise. This helps to “keep the bastards honest”, as we say here in Australian politics. HOW strongly the retort is expressed also varies with personality.
Yes, there is The Issue and then there is The Person, and we can discuss all we like the issue. But equally, behind every issue and argument is the human perspective –maybe nothing more than a fantasy opinion, a rampant ego, some intransigent kooky ideological mindset, which sometimes needs calling out, sorting out, direct confrontation to *the thinker*, even public humiliation to make the point about THEM rather than just argue their idea. How can you debate sheer delusion?
Everything people say is what they think. But the problem is that people are intimately ATTACHED to what they think. They hold to their irrational beliefs and demand you debate them rationally, impersonally!!! They spew out nonsense which they believe, but then say “don’t attack me for my beliefs”.
Imo, there is too much “self protection” going on in society these days; way too much “always be nice to others”; in other words virtue signalling; the cause of which is insecurity dressed up as moral superiority. These are people afraid to have their mindsets challenged — “don’t criticise ME, just stick to the topic”. It’s rubbish. YOU ARE the topic.
I do not disrespect B or others of softer tones. I just think he/they are being is unrealistic in THIS SITUATION. Also, he has set up and invited the world into this “cyber bar”. So he gets what he lets in the door. Lol. I don’t know how polite German barflies are, but here we are not in Germany. We are on the World Wide Web!
It’s pretty rough and tumble here. I don’t think too many object to it.
Posted by: SCCC | Sep 15 2023 23:26 utc | 625
b kindly requests that we do not attack each other. You have a comprehension or disrespect issue.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 15 2023 14:43 utc | 298
####
Acco, I don’t ever have any bones to pick with you. I enjoy your input. But on the above topic, it is a very vexed issue (all over the web) and, I think, deserves deeper examination.
Many, many years ago, I was a sysop for a forum when I figured out these following thoughts. A moderator either has to slam down instantly and hard on each and every moral transgression or let some go into the grey zone. It would take massive time and effort and even staff/helpers to police this forum. I mean, where is the line on swearing; surreptitious racism; casual insult; vitriolic excoriation, or as I once described it “the gang rape of @shadowbanned”.
In a forum like this — discussing a war, ffs — and with high troll presence, it is a FANTASY to expect nice behaviour! If B wants to have a blitz cleanout, as he sometimes does, fine. But the rudeness will return unless he enforces it daily.
“Please do not attack others” is an ideal, a request. But what is partisan, fascistic, Ukie trolling if not an attack upon human decency and commonsense? What is a suppositional, condescending, omniscient, bigotted, factually wrong post if not an attack upon good faith by other posters.
As one of the very abrasive types around here, you’ve maybe read my rationale for confronting idiocy. It’s actually congenital! I do it in real life too. Most Australians do, unlike Europeans and nicey nicey Americans (and maybe Dutch emigrants). If I or other “rude” folks were to be banned, c’est la vie. No loss to me, there’ll just be nicer posts with more unchallenged bullshit.
But human nature is such that many folks knee jerk into attack mode when confronted with what they know to be bullshit. Are we to let bullshit just pass? Many (in my books) rightly call it out in areas of their expertise. This helps to “keep the bastards honest”, as we say here in Australian politics. HOW strongly the retort is expressed also varies with personality.
Yes, there is The Issue and then there is The Person, and we can discuss all we like the issue. But equally, behind every issue and argument is the human perspective –maybe nothing more than a fantasy opinion, a rampant ego, some intransigent kooky ideological mindset, which sometimes needs calling out, sorting out, direct confrontation to *the thinker*, even public humiliation to make the point about THEM rather than just argue their idea. How can you debate sheer delusion?
Everything people say is what they think. But the problem is that people are intimately ATTACHED to what they think. They hold to their irrational beliefs and demand you debate them rationally, impersonally!!! They spew out nonsense which they believe, but then say “don’t attack me for my beliefs”.
Imo, there is too much “self protection” going on in society these days; way too much “always be nice to others”; in other words virtue signalling; the cause of which is insecurity dressed up as moral superiority. These are people afraid to have their mindsets challenged — “don’t criticise ME, just stick to the topic”. It’s rubbish. YOU ARE the topic.
I do not disrespect B or others of softer tones. I just think he/they are being is unrealistic in THIS SITUATION. Also, he has set up and invited the world into this “cyber bar”. So he gets what he lets in the door. Lol. I don’t know how polite German barflies are, but here we are not in Germany. We are on the World Wide Web!
It’s pretty rough and tumble here. I don’t think too many object to it.
Posted by: SCCC | Sep 15 2023 23:26 utc | 626
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