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Russia Is Winning The Industrial Warfare Race
Last year I mocked the media for claiming that 'Russia is running out of' whatever.
> Back in March I had warned that Lies Do Not Win Wars. Here is another practical example.
After allegedly having 'run out of missiles' and, more importantly, patience, the leadership of the Russian Federation decided to de-electrify Ukrainian cities with a 'barrage of missile strikes'. <
Western military commentators have finally started to accept the obvious. Russia is winning and doing so by a large margin.
A similar turn can be seen in dearth of new 'Russia is running out of' stories which get now replaced by acknowledgements that Russia's weapon industries are out-producing the West:
Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say – NY Times
Moscow’s missile production now exceeds prewar levels, officials say, leaving Ukraine especially vulnerable this coming winter.
As a result of the sanctions, American officials estimate that Russia was forced to dramatically slow its production of missiles and other weaponry at the start of the war in February 2022 for at least six months. But by the end of 2022, Moscow’s military industrial manufacturing began to pick up speed again, American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose the sensitive assessment now concede.
…
Before the war, one senior Western defense official said, Russia could make 100 tanks a year; now they are producing 200.
Western officials also believe Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year — double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.
As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West.
Russia’s production costs are also far lower than the West’s, in part because Moscow is sacrificing safety and quality in its effort to build weapons more cheaply, Mr. Salm said. For instance, it costs a Western country $5,000 to $6,000 to make a 155-millimeter artillery round, whereas it costs Russia about $600 to produce a comparable 152-millimeter artillery shell, he said.
I believe that the numbers of current weapon production in Russia, which the New York Times cites, are too low. Consider that back in February the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev spoke of an 'exponential increase' in weapon output:
Medvedev said Moscow had increased military production "by tens of times" at some factories and was closely studying weapons fired into Russian-held areas from the Ukrainian side in an effort to gain an advantage.
I would also argue that sanctions were never really able to hinder Russia's arms industry. No military uses the latest and greatest chips when it comes to making weapons. Putting sanctioning on those is thus pretty useless. Some old Intel 80386 compatible CPU is, correctly programmed, sufficient to manage a modern artillery system. For little money one can get thousands of these in any Asian electronic market.
There are a few exceptions that need special stuff. For some time Russia was behind in the production of night vision equipment. It imported some from France which blocked further transfers. But that issues seems to have been solved. For basic materials and energy Russia has all it needs. It also has well qualified staff to develop and build new weapons.
Five years ago the Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed a number of new weapon systems which were superior to western ones. He also mentioned that same of these were based on "new physical principles" which had been discovered by Russian scientists. At the recent Eastern Economic Forum he repeated that claim:
If one looks into the security sphere, new physical principles weapons will ensure the security of any country in the near historic perspective. We understand this very well and are working on it, Putin said.
(I don't find those sentences in the plenum transcript but trust Sputnik to have it right.)
There is some guessing what Putin might have meant. I thought about it for quite a while but have to admit that I have no clue what he has in mind.
A warning that Russia will outproduce the West was given back in June 2022 when Alex Vershinin of RUSI issued a note about The Return of Industrial Warfare:
The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.
It has become to expensive for the West to regain that capability.
That Russia was running out of stuff was always wishful thinking, not fact based analysis. On that point it took the media more than a year to catch up with reality. On other aspects of the the war, casualty numbers come to mind, the media are still miles behind.
Latest from Russia MOD per southfront https://southfront.press/kiev-forces-face-failure-across-the-front-videos
Kiev forces have made several failed advance attempts across the front, according to the September 14 briefing by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
In the Donetsk direction, the Russian Yug Group of Forces repelled eight attacks by Ukraine’s 80th Airborne Assault Brigade and 59th Motorised Brigade near Klescheevka, Berdichi and Pervomayskoye.
Up to 350 Ukrainian troops were killed or wounded during the fighting in this direction, the ministry said, adding that three armored fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, three American-made M777 towed howitzers and M109 self-propelled howitzers and one D-30 towed howitzer were destroyed.
Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 28th Mechanised Brigade was targeted and destroyed by the group in the outskirts of Dileevka.
In the Zaporozhye direction, three attacks by the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade and 71st Jaeger Brigade were repelled close to Verbovoye.
The ministry said that 95 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two armored fighting vehicles and three motor vehicles were neutralized in this direction. In addition, six towed howitzers, one M777, one M119, one British-made FH-70, one Msta-B, one D-20 and one D-30, were destroyed by counter-battery fire.
And in the South Donetsk direction, the Russian Tsentr Group of Forces repelled an attack by the 128rd Territorial Defence Brigade close to Priyutnoye.
Around 140 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two armored fighting vehicles and three motor vehicles were neutralized during the fighting, according to the ministry.
In the Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces repelled an attack by the 63rd Mechanised Brigade of Kiev forces close to Chervonaya Dibrova. The group also targeted several gatherings of manpower and equipment near Seversk, Grigorovka and Serebryanka.
Up to 55 Ukrainian troops, three armored fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles and one D-20 towed howitzer were destroyed in this direction, the ministry said.
In the Kupyansk direction, the Russian Zapad Group of Forces repelled an attack by the 30th Mechanised Brigade close to Sinkovka. During the fighting, 130 Ukrainian troops, two infantry fighting vehicles and three motor vehicles were neutralized, according to the ministry.
Moreover, one M777 towed howitzer, one American-made M109 self-propelled howitzer and an American-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar were destroyed by counter-battery fire. Several ammunition depot of Kiev forces were also targeted and destroyed close to Berestovoye and Tikhoye.
Meanwhile in the Kherson direction, Kiev forces lost 70 troops, one armored fighting vehicle, seven motor vehicles and one D-30 towed howitzer to Russian artillery fire.
The Russian MoD also provided the following details during its briefing:
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 143 areas during the day.
In addition, one P-18 air target detection and tracking radar station was destroyed near Novopavlovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Two command posts of the AFU 100th Territorial Defence Brigade and the 15th regiment of Ukraine’s National Guard were hit near Serebryanka and Krasny Liman (Donetsk People’s Republic).
One AFU ammunition depot was wiped out close to Trudovoye (Zaporozhye region).
Fighter aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down one Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force near Krasny Liman (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Russian air defense systems intercepted four HIMARS MLRS projectiles during the day.
Furthermore, during the day, 53 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were neutralized and suppressed by radio electronic warfare means close to Verkhnekamenka, Topolevka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Peski, Vasilevka, Krasnaya Gora (Donetsk People’s Republic), Novofedorovka, Vasilyevka (Zaporozhye region), Aleshki and Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson region).
Posted by: ctiger | Sep 14 2023 17:28 utc | 163
Latest from Russia MOD per southfront https://southfront.press/kiev-forces-face-failure-across-the-front-videos
Kiev forces have made several failed advance attempts across the front, according to the September 14 briefing by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
In the Donetsk direction, the Russian Yug Group of Forces repelled eight attacks by Ukraine’s 80th Airborne Assault Brigade and 59th Motorised Brigade near Klescheevka, Berdichi and Pervomayskoye.
Up to 350 Ukrainian troops were killed or wounded during the fighting in this direction, the ministry said, adding that three armored fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, three American-made M777 towed howitzers and M109 self-propelled howitzers and one D-30 towed howitzer were destroyed.
Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 28th Mechanised Brigade was targeted and destroyed by the group in the outskirts of Dileevka.
In the Zaporozhye direction, three attacks by the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade and 71st Jaeger Brigade were repelled close to Verbovoye.
The ministry said that 95 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two armored fighting vehicles and three motor vehicles were neutralized in this direction. In addition, six towed howitzers, one M777, one M119, one British-made FH-70, one Msta-B, one D-20 and one D-30, were destroyed by counter-battery fire.
And in the South Donetsk direction, the Russian Tsentr Group of Forces repelled an attack by the 128rd Territorial Defence Brigade close to Priyutnoye.
Around 140 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two armored fighting vehicles and three motor vehicles were neutralized during the fighting, according to the ministry.
In the Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces repelled an attack by the 63rd Mechanised Brigade of Kiev forces close to Chervonaya Dibrova. The group also targeted several gatherings of manpower and equipment near Seversk, Grigorovka and Serebryanka.
Up to 55 Ukrainian troops, three armored fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles and one D-20 towed howitzer were destroyed in this direction, the ministry said.
In the Kupyansk direction, the Russian Zapad Group of Forces repelled an attack by the 30th Mechanised Brigade close to Sinkovka. During the fighting, 130 Ukrainian troops, two infantry fighting vehicles and three motor vehicles were neutralized, according to the ministry.
Moreover, one M777 towed howitzer, one American-made M109 self-propelled howitzer and an American-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar were destroyed by counter-battery fire. Several ammunition depot of Kiev forces were also targeted and destroyed close to Berestovoye and Tikhoye.
Meanwhile in the Kherson direction, Kiev forces lost 70 troops, one armored fighting vehicle, seven motor vehicles and one D-30 towed howitzer to Russian artillery fire.
The Russian MoD also provided the following details during its briefing:
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 143 areas during the day.
In addition, one P-18 air target detection and tracking radar station was destroyed near Novopavlovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Two command posts of the AFU 100th Territorial Defence Brigade and the 15th regiment of Ukraine’s National Guard were hit near Serebryanka and Krasny Liman (Donetsk People’s Republic).
One AFU ammunition depot was wiped out close to Trudovoye (Zaporozhye region).
Fighter aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down one Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force near Krasny Liman (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Russian air defense systems intercepted four HIMARS MLRS projectiles during the day.
Furthermore, during the day, 53 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were neutralized and suppressed by radio electronic warfare means close to Verkhnekamenka, Topolevka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Peski, Vasilevka, Krasnaya Gora (Donetsk People’s Republic), Novofedorovka, Vasilyevka (Zaporozhye region), Aleshki and Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson region).
Posted by: ctiger | Sep 14 2023 17:28 utc | 164
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