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The current open thread for other issues is here.

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Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

• September 11 – Zelensky Threatens To Terrorize Europe
  Related:
  – Providing Billions of Dollars of Weapons to a Regime Dominated by People
    With an Attitude Towards Russia that is Similar to Adolph Hitler – Covert Action Mag
  – Hyping Ukraine Counteroffensive, US Press Chose Propaganda Over Journalism – Fair
  – Ukraine’s Demography in the Second Year of the Full-Fledged War – Wilson Center
  – Is NATO Learning About Its Future in Ukraine? – Weapons and Strategy
  – It's War, Josep, But Not As We Know It (Nov 2022) – Aurelien
  – The realists were right – New Statesman

• September 12 – Kasandras Beware – China's Economy Will Not Hit A Wall
  Related:
  – China August industrial output, retail sales growth beat expectations – Reuters
  – China AI & Semiconductors Rise: US Sanctions Have Failed – Semi Analysis
  – The Side of Huawei We Don’t Know – National Interest

• September 13 – More Voices Call On Biden To Withdraw From The 2024 Race
  Related:
  – The Case for Biden to Step Aside – Cook Political
  – The Case for Biden to Drop Kamala Harris – NY Magazine
  – Democrats are crazy to insist only Biden can beat Trump – Washington Post
  – Harris chatter leaves Biden allies seeking to shut down talk of replacing her – The Hill
  – Pentagon-Funded Study Warns Dementia Among U.S. Officials Poses National Security Threat – Intercept

• September 14 – Russia Is Winning The Industrial Warfare Race
• September 16 – What The U.S. Will Learn, And Not Learn, From Its War In Ukraine
  Related:
  – Parallel worlds: what counts as news in the West; what counts as news in Russia – Gilbert Doctorow
  – Too Much of Not A Lot – Winning the day and losing the war. – Aurelian
  – From Strategic Dilemma to Strategic Disaster, Part 1 – Gordon Hahn
  – The West's historical and strategic miscalculations – Gordon Hahn

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-218

The quarterly magazine Parameters by the U.S. Army War College published an interesting paper about U.S. war capabilities:

A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force

Its abstract says:

Fifty years ago, the US Army faced a strategic inflection point after a failed counterinsurgency effort in Vietnam. In response to lessons learned from the Yom Kippur War, the United States Army Training and Doctrine Command was created to reorient thinking and doctrine around the conventional Soviet threat. Today’s Army must embrace the Russo-Ukrainian conflict as an opportunity to reorient the force into one as forward-thinking and formidable as the Army that won Operation Desert Storm.

This article suggests changes the Army should make to enable success in multidomain large-scale combat operations at today’s strategic inflection point.

It is normal for a military to analyze ongoing or just finished wars and to draw conclusions from them. Such efforts should then lead to changes in the military structure or its procedures.

The above effort though is unlikely to lead to the changes the authors want to see.

The authors correctly point out that command and control of troops via radio is problematic when the enemy has the means to detect all radio traffic:

Cont. reading: What The U.S. Will Learn, And Not Learn, From Its War In Ukraine

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The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) …

Last year I mocked the media for claiming that 'Russia is running out of' whatever.

• How Russia, And Putin, Are Weaponizing, Losing And Running Out Of … Everything – June 3, 2022
• Russia Is Running Out Of [Whatever The Media Claim] – June 26, 2022
• Russia, Having 'Run Out Of Missiles', Launches Barrage On Ukraine – Oct 10, 2022

> Back in March I had warned that Lies Do Not Win Wars. Here is another practical example.

After allegedly having 'run out of missiles' and, more importantly, patience, the leadership of the Russian Federation decided to de-electrify Ukrainian cities with a 'barrage of missile strikes'. <

Western military commentators have finally started to accept the obvious. Russia is winning and doing so by a large margin.

A similar turn can be seen in dearth of new 'Russia is running out of' stories which get now replaced by acknowledgements that Russia's weapon industries are out-producing the West:

Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say – NY Times
Moscow’s missile production now exceeds prewar levels, officials say, leaving Ukraine especially vulnerable this coming winter.

As a result of the sanctions, American officials estimate that Russia was forced to dramatically slow its production of missiles and other weaponry at the start of the war in February 2022 for at least six months. But by the end of 2022, Moscow’s military industrial manufacturing began to pick up speed again, American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose the sensitive assessment now concede.
…
Before the war, one senior Western defense official said, Russia could make 100 tanks a year; now they are producing 200.

Western officials also believe Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year — double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.

As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West.

Russia’s production costs are also far lower than the West’s, in part because Moscow is sacrificing safety and quality in its effort to build weapons more cheaply, Mr. Salm said. For instance, it costs a Western country $5,000 to $6,000 to make a 155-millimeter artillery round, whereas it costs Russia about $600 to produce a comparable 152-millimeter artillery shell, he said.

I believe that the numbers of current weapon production in Russia, which the New York Times cites, are too low. Consider that back in February the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev spoke of an 'exponential increase' in weapon output:

Cont. reading: Russia Is Winning The Industrial Warfare Race

The Democrats have a Biden problem:

I do not know who is supposed to manage Biden's public relations but whoever that is is doing a bad job.

The strategists for the Democratic Party and those concerned with winning elections should seriously think about replacing Biden with someone who is better at handling himself.

It is going to get worse:

Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday directed top congressional Republicans to open an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, reversing his previous stance that such an investigation should be initiated only with a vote of the House.

In doing so, Mr. McCarthy leveled a series of accusations against Mr. Biden that he said amounted to a “picture of a culture of corruption” and warranted the House using its most potent investigative tool to try to make the case for removing the president.

The impeachment proceedings, like those against Donald Trump, are mostly a public relation gimmick. But they are also likely to show that the Biden family business is as corrupt as they come.

The British establishment, largely on the Democrats side, is clearly concerned.

The Economist predicts that:

Hunter Biden’s woes, and a new impeachment saga, will go on and on

Yet although Mr Comer’s investigation is failing to prove the existence of what Donald Trump calls the “Biden crime family”, congressional inquiries will now multiply.
…
Indeed, the younger Mr Biden’s legal problems are intensifying. On September 6th prosecutors serving under David Weiss, the special counsel investigating Hunter, announced that they expect an indictment by the end of the month. The president’s son is likely to be charged with not paying taxes and lying on a form when buying a gun at a time when he was addicted to crack cocaine. A plea deal that would have kept him out of jail on those charges fell apart in July. And other, more damaging charges—such as lobbying for a foreign government without registering—have not been ruled out.

None of that implicates the president. Yet he may suffer for it nonetheless. According to a CNN poll, three-fifths of Americans think Mr Biden was involved in his son’s business. Pump out enough smoke and you might create fire.

The CIA's influence peddler and Washington Post columnist David Ignatius is the latest establishment voice to warn of a likely defeat of Biden should he decide to keep running:

President Biden should not run again in 2024

Like the Economist writers Ignatius is as friendly to Democrats as they come. The CIA and FBI had both intervened after the election of Donald Trump. They launched Russiagate, a series of fake stories, to hamper Trump's ability to govern and to get Biden elected. That its senior management has commissioned Ignatius to call on Biden to give up can be understood as a warning.

Ignatius names two points that put Biden's reelection into jeopardy:

Biden would carry two big liabilities into a 2024 campaign. He would be 82 when he began a second term. According to a recent Associated Press-NORC poll, 77 percent of the public, including 69 percent of Democrats, think he’s too old to be effective for four more years. Biden’s age isn’t just a Fox News trope; it’s been the subject of dinner-table conversations across America this summer.

Because of their concerns about Biden’s age, voters would sensibly focus on his presumptive running mate, Harris. She is less popular than Biden, with a 39.5 percent approval rating, according to polling website FiveThirtyEight. Harris has many laudable qualities, but the simple fact is that she has failed to gain traction in the country or even within her own party.

Biden at least should get rid of Harris who is a bit of a millstone to popularity:

Biden could encourage a more open vice-presidential selection process that could produce a stronger running mate.

Ignatius goes on to ask Biden to step down and to immediately announce that he will not be available for another round:

Biden has never been good at saying no. He should have resisted the choice of Harris, who was a colleague of his beloved son Beau when they were both state attorneys general. He should have blocked then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which has done considerable damage to the island’s security. He should have stopped his son Hunter from joining the board of a Ukrainian gas company and representing companies in China — and he certainly should have resisted Hunter’s attempts to impress clients by getting Dad on the phone.

Biden has another chance to say no — to himself, this time — by withdrawing from the 2024 race. It might not be in character for Biden, but it would be a wise choice for the country.

I doubt that Joe Biden, or the people around him, will follow that advice. They are too full of themselves to voluntarily make room for others. It will require more intervention, probably from former president Obama, to convince Biden to give up.

Or someone could create some 'medical emergency'. That should not be too difficult given Biden's general condition and age.

Anyway. If the Democrats want to keep the presidency, something needs to be done.

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

The economist and columnist of the New York Times Paul Krugman wrote about China hitting the wall:

China is in big trouble. We’re not talking about some minor setback along the way, but something more fundamental. The country’s whole way of doing business, the economic system that has driven three decades of incredible growth, has reached its limits. You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be.
…
Wages are rising; finally, ordinary Chinese are starting to share in the fruits of growth. But it also means that the Chinese economy is suddenly faced with the need for drastic “rebalancing” — the jargon phrase of the moment. Investment is now running into sharply diminishing returns and is going to drop drastically no matter what the government does; consumer spending must rise dramatically to take its place. The question is whether this can happen fast enough to avoid a nasty slump.

That was written in 2013 when China's GDP at purchase power parity reached $16.3 trillion. The number has since more than doubled to a projected $33 trillion in 2023. (In the same time span U.S. GDP(ppp) grew from $17 to $26 trillion.) But that hasn't influenced Krugman's conclusions. Two week ago he wrote another column that paints the same gloomy picture and prescribes the same false medicine:

Since the late 2000s, however, China seems to have lost a lot of its dynamism.
…
… China clearly can’t sustain anything like the high growth rates of the past.
…
At a fundamental level, China is suffering from the paradox of thrift, which says that an economy can suffer if consumers try to save too much. If businesses aren’t willing to borrow and then invest all the money consumers are trying to save, the result is an economic downturn. Such a downturn may well reduce the amount businesses are willing to invest, so an attempt to save more can actually reduce investment.
…
The obvious answer is to boost consumer spending. Get state-owned enterprises to share more of their profits with workers. Strengthen the safety net. And in the short run, the government could just give people money — sending out checks, the way America has done.

How is giving checks (btw: no Chinese or European citizen uses those antique instruments) to people who are saving instead of consuming supposed to increase their consumption? I would presume that it would rather increase their savings. Giving more income to people who like to save to increase consumption is like pushing on a string.

David Fishman, an economist who lives in China and speaks Mandarin, had an interesting chat with a taxi driver. He concludes:

Cont. reading: Kasandras Beware – China’s Economy Will Not Hit A Wall

The Economist published another interview with the Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski.

It includes his usual unrealistic platitudes about not ending the war until Russia has completely pulled back. Speaking with an English language media he didn't miss to mention the ever misunderstood story about Chamberlain's move in Munich:

Tapping loudly on the table, Mr Zelensky rejects outright the idea of compromise with Vladimir Putin. War will continue for “as long as Russia remains on Ukrainian territory”, he says. A negotiated deal would not be permanent. The Russian president has a habit of creating “frozen conflicts” on Russia’s borders (in Georgia, for example), not as ends in themselves but because his goal is to “restore the Soviet Union”. Those who choose to talk to the man in the Kremlin are “tricking themselves”, much like the Western leaders who signed an agreement with Adolf Hitler at Munich in 1938 only to watch him invade Czechoslovakia. “The mistake is not diplomacy. The mistake is diplomacy with Putin. He negotiates only with himself.”

In 1938 Chamberlain had no other choice but to give in on Czechoslovakia. Britain was not ready for war and the parts Hitler wanted to annex from Czechoslovakia had undeniably a largely German population:

He contended that Sudeten German grievances were justified and believed that Hitler's intentions were limited.

Zelenski goes on to threaten, in rather unthankful fashion, those countries which have delivered aid to Ukraine but may want to cut their losses:

Curtailing aid to Ukraine will only prolong the war, Mr Zelensky argues. And it would create risks for the West in its own backyard. There is no way of predicting how the millions of Ukrainian refugees in European countries would react to their country being abandoned. Ukrainians have generally “behaved well” and are “very grateful” to those who sheltered them. They will not forget that generosity. But it would not be a “good story” for Europe if it were to “drive these people into a corner”.

I have seen such threats from low ranking individuals of the fascist Bandera fringe. They spoke of terrorism they would unleash in the West should it end its support for Ukraine. That the Ukrainian president now reinforces such threats shows how deeply he immersed himself in that mindset.

A previous Economist story shows that Ukraine has already set up the necessary infrastructure to wage a terrorist campaign:

Cont. reading: Zelensky Threatens To Terrorize Europe

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The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

• September 4 – How Sanctions Failed To Hinder China's Development
• September 6 – Media Say … Gloom And Doom In China
  Related:
  – Huawei Debuts Even More Powerful Phone as Controversy Swirls – Yahoo
  – Here's why Qualcomm is the "main loser" after Huawei revealed its 7nm 5G Kirin chip – Phone Arena
  – US lawmaker calls for ending Huawei, SMIC exports after chip breakthrough – Reuters
  – New law will allow Beijing to seize foreign government assets – RFA
  – Forecasting China? – New Left Review

• September 8 – Blog Down

> My excuse for posting only three pieces this week  Yes and no. After a rather rainy summer around my block it finally warmed up a bit. So I got a bit lazy. But I also read a lot which may help with future pieces. – b. <

• September 9 – Ukraine SitRep: Western Military Commentators Finally Accept The Obvious
  Related:
  – An Endgame for the Ukrainian War w/ John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen – Youtube
  – In Ukraine, a U.S. Arms Dealer Is Making a Fortune and Testing Limits – NY Times
  – U.S. Delays Deliveries of M1A1 Abrams Tanks to Ukraine: Vehicles Needed Urgently Amid High Armour Attrition Rates

> Delaying deliveries of Abrams tanks could ensure that it enters service after the current period of intensified hostilities has ended, after which the vehicles will be less likely to suffer losses which could affect the class’ reputation – or that of the American defence sector. <

—
Other Issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-213

The Kuebler-Ross model of grief describes the human coping mechanism to deal with extremely difficult situations. It has five phases:

• denial – "No, not me, it cannot be true"
• anger – "Why me?"
• bargaining – attempting to postpone death with "good behaviour"
• depression – when reacting to their illness, and preparing for their death
• acceptance – "The final rest before the long journey"

With regard to the Ukrainian counter-offensive the last phase of the grief model has now been reached.

While not all politician are yet there, the military and intelligence specialists, who are part of the western propaganda squads, have made their conclusions. From their mouth the truth is dripping to the media. While the headlines below may not express it, the content of those pieces, especially in the first four, is finally admitting the obvious. It didn't work and the counter-offensive is done:

• Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensive – RUSI – September 4
• Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months – War on the Rocks – September 4
• The Russians Are Getting Better – What Moscow Has Learned in Ukraine – Foreign Affairs, September 6
• How the Pentagon assesses Ukraine’s progress – Economist – September 6
• US Intelligence Official: Media Misleading Americans About Ukraine’s Battlefield Success – Hersh via Scheerpost – September 7
• NATO learning hard lessons about its future in Ukraine – Asia Times – September 7
• How Ukraine’s Heroic Stand Against Russia Could Collapse Into Failure– 1945 – September 7
• Ukrainian Progress: A Breach or a Breakthrough of Russian Lines? – War on the Rocks – September 8
• How Russia learned from mistakes to slow Ukraine’s counteroffensive – Washington Post – September 8

Simplicius has taken several of the above pieces apart and finds that they finally admit that the issue is lost:

Dire New Western Reports Call to Ditch NATO Tactics
Plus a roundup of other grist from the Western propaganda mill

Nothing of the above is new to Moon of Alabama readers. I may have helped to spare you the grief by not clinging to a the narrative but to the reality of the battlefield:

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: Western Military Commentators Finally Accept The Obvious

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"My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away."

Ozymandias. By Percy Bysshe Shelley.

Idea Kit Klarenberg.

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) …

Typepad, the system on which this blog runs, was down since at least yesterday's noon. While the site was open to comments I couldn't post or administer this blog since. The reasons are yet unknown.

The system is now up again. I will post later today.

The New York Times, and other western media, are running a 'doom and gloom in Xi's economy' campaign.

The latest entry is this piece:

China’s Economic Pain Is a Test of Xi’s Fixation With Control

The core claim is this:

Consumers are gloomy. Private investment is sluggish. A big property firm is near collapse. Local governments face crippling debt. Youth unemployment has continued to rise. The economic setbacks are eroding Mr. Xi’s image of imperious command, and emerging as perhaps the most sustained and thorny challenge to his agenda in over a decade in power.

But lets look at the sources the author quotes to make up 'evidence' for his claims:

• Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis, said in an interview
• Some experts say …
• not all observers believe that China’s economy is in a sharp downward spiral. But …
• Chinese internet users circulated an essay by a retired Hong Kong businessman, Lew Mon-hung …
• Liu Shijin, a retired senior Chinese government economist, said …
• said Alicia García Herrero, the chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis
• said Bert Hofman, director of the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore
• said Ms. García Herrero, the economist
• Some Chinese economists and former officials have warned
• Lou Jiwei, a former minister of finance said in a recent video interview with Caixin

The author of the gloom and doom piece is:

Chris Buckley, the Times’s chief correspondent in China, where he has lived for most of the past 30 years

If Chris Buckley lives in China why doesn't he quote even one person who is really involved in China's economy or policy making? Isn't there any active Chinese politician or Chinese CEO or Chinese economist or Chinese worker he could quote?

Cont. reading: Media Say … Gloom And Doom In China

Another wonder-weapon has met its fate.

bigger

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The current open thread for other issues is here.

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These headlines related to China are demonstrating a very fast historic development:

• Why Do the Chinese Copy So Much? – IHT/NY Times, July 25, 2012
• 26 Things That China Ripped Off – Insider, August 27, 2013
• Chinese Tech Firms Are Increasingly Being Copied by U.S., Not Just Copying – The Street, June 28, 2018
• World Record-Breaking Drone Swarm From China Puts on Magical Show – Nerdist, June 10, 2018
• Pentagon unveils ‘Replicator’ drone program to compete with China – Defense News, August 28, 2023

From the last link:

The Pentagon committed on Monday to fielding thousands of attritable, autonomous systems across multiple domains within the next two years as part of a new initiative to better compete with China.

The program, dubbed Replicator, was announced by Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, speaking at the National Defense Industrial Association’s Emerging Technologies conference here.

“Replicator will galvanize progress in the too-slow shift of U.S. military innovation to leverage platforms that are small, smart, cheap and many,” Hicks said.

China's industry developed by copying designs from other producers. But it only took a few years until it started to produce better or new products for new markets. Historically this is nothing new. Germany's industrial development happened by ripping off British manufacturing processes and products. A few years later industrial German products could compete with British ones and the Brits started to copy Germany technology.

In 2018 China demonstrated large swarms of coordinated drones that could draw moving pictures into the sky.

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Now the Pentagon wants to replicate such capabilities.

Cont. reading: How Sanctions Failed To Hinder China’s Development

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The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.