My source comments WRT Asia’s peak oil moment….
https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-south-east-asia-and-india-part-1-production-and-consumption-update-2022
The Energy Institute published its first Statistical Review on 25 June 2023, thereby replacing the BP Statistical Review
https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review
Let’s have a look at oil production and consumption in South East Asia and India. After all, this is one of the key regions in the world where perpetual growth is expected.
Fig 1: Oil production peaked in 2000
This peak year came about by a production spike in Australia which peaked in that year. Without Australia we observe a bumpy production plateau between 1995 and 2016 (20 years). Annual decline rates in the last 3 years have accelerated to 5% – 7% pa. We do not know how much of that is due to Covid.
Fig 2: Oil consumption in South East Asia and India
The Wuhan virus stopped unsustainable oil consumption growth much more than any other crisis before. That tells us that dramatic events must happen to reign in oil demand.
Fig 3: Oil consumption growth rates in kb/d and percent
Oil consumption took off in the mid 1980s when growth rates were 6.5% pa on average. The 1997 Asian financial crisis (originated in Thailand) reduced the growth rates by half. After the 2008 oil price shock, growth varied between 1 % and 7%. Covid was a roller-coaster. Note that consumption is now so high, that a 3% increase in 2022 is 400 kb/d. If that continued for another 10 years the cumulative growth would be more than the total current annual production.
Fig 4: Consumption vs production
Up, up and away: consumption in 2022 was more than 4 times production equal to a 76% import ratio which was just 35% in the peak production year 2000. Compared to that year, the oil production decline was 1.5 mb/d while the oil consumption increase was 8.6 mb/d. This means the peak oil problem is around 6 times more an oil import problem than a production problem.
I recommend all read the original post… the graphs are telling…
From them, it is obvious that asian production is in decline since the 2001 peak, and the decline rate is accelerating…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 21 2023 13:46 utc | 203

Nevski and the Tatars together on Lake of Chudes against Teutonic-Livonians yesterday, nowadays Russian Federation with China and some more vs Neo-Carolingians….
Posted by: Timur | Sep 21 2023 12:43 utc | 99
My thought is, Timur, that while history cannot repeat itself, it does spiral. That is, somehow unresolved themes are revisited, and with the help of history we see them in the context of the human condition and can learn from the past.
I remember vaguely a discourse on the structure of Dante’s Divine Comedy. I didn’t understand it at the time but somehow the descent into hell that he depicts layer by layer he then reconstructs outwardly in the two further books – it’s not perhaps a completely understandable geometrical figure but I like what it does in poetry.

Posted by: juliania | Sep 21 2023 13:49 utc | 205

I posted the call made by Armenia to Putin last night, and this morning we have one from Azerbaijan to Putin:

Ilham Aliyev apologized and expressed deep condolences over the tragic death of Russian peacekeeping servicemen in Karabakh on September 20 contingent (RMK). It was emphasized that the most thorough investigation of the incident and all those responsible will be duly punished. In this regard, the Prosecutor General’s Offices of the two countries are in close contact. President Azerbaijan also expressed readiness to provide material assistance to families of the dead.
Both parties noted the importance of consistent implementation of the achievements with the assistance of RCC agreements on the complete cessation of hostilities in Karabakh. In this context, great importance is attached to those that began with the mediation of peacekeepers negotiations between representatives of Baku and Stepanakert.
Discussed priority steps to further stabilize the situation and overcome humanitarian problems in the region. Vladimir Putin stressed the importance that of ensuring the rights and security of the Armenian population of Karabakh. The readiness of the Azerbaijani side to cooperate on these issues was reaffirmed with Russian peacekeepers.
Understood to intensify work on the negotiation track in line with the well-known trilateral agreements at the highest level of 2020–2022, primarily in terms of unblocking transport links, delimitation of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border and the preparation of a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan.

Both sides have a lot at stake in resolving this conflict.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 21 2023 15:23 utc | 207

Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 21 2023 13:46 utc | 102–
Thanks for that posting. The fact of declining extraction was missing from all the howling over India ramping up its imports of Russian oil and is an essential part of the overall issue of energy availability to further Global South development. I see a shift from oil use to gas/LNG and nuclear for Global South development. Coal also will still be essential for very heavy industry like steel; and if attention was made to the recent spate of reports about Russia’s Far East, there’re several large deposits of coal and lots of gas to be extracted and sent to developing nations.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 21 2023 15:31 utc | 209

ZH has the latest by Pepe Escobar up with the title
Escobar: Russia, North Korea Stage ‘Strategic Coup’ Against Western Hegemony
ZH also has a posting up by Alastair Crooke with the title of
The BRICS Commodity Powerhouse: Can It Force A New Economic ‘Order’?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 21 2023 15:40 utc | 211

Armenian political scientist Beniamin Matevosyan on the latest developments (September 20, 2023):

1. It was Pashinyan who surrendered Artsakh to Azerbaijan on October 6, 2022 in Prague.
2. It was Pashinyan who gave Aliyev a legitimate opportunity to start the blockade of Artsakh. Together they’ve been starving the people of Karabakh for almost a year, and only then did Baku risk starting a war.
3. It was Pashinyan who declared war on Russia [politically — S], and his statement today that “the Russian Federation is already taking full responsibility for the security of the Armenians of Karabakh,” as well as yesterday’s protest in front of the Russian Embassy, the call to shut down Russian media in the country and expel the Russian military base are direct evidence of this.
4. It is Pashinyan who is ready to sign a “peace treaty” with Azerbaijan at a Western negotiating platform, which will both lead to territorial losses for Armenia itself and create conditions for the complete expulsion of the Russian Federation from the region. And then those terrorists who have been present in our region since October 2020 will easily migrate to the North Caucasus.
Pashinyan’s mission is still not completed—the 102nd military base [Russia’s military base — S] is still there, Russian border guards are there [Russia is currently guarding part of Armenia’s border — S], the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant is still operating, Armenia is still a member of the CSTO, the Armenian–Iranian border still exists, and the common land border of Azerbaijan and Turkey still does not exist [except the exclave of Nakhchivan — S]. It is precisely because the mission is not completed that he will hold on to his chair with his teeth.
We can talk for a long time about who is to blame for this situation (and there are many culprits—ranging from the political elite of Armenia and Karabakh to Russian analysts and officials who were saying that “Pashinyan can be controlled and you can come to an agreement with him” to the Americans and British who are considering Armenia and Artsakh in the context of the possibility of inflicting a strategic defeat on the Russian Federation), but after the Armenian government, choosing between war and shame, chose shame, in order to continue living in this country it is necessary to fight for political changes with tripled strength.
If these efforts do not produce results in the very near future, then living in Armenia will become physically dangerous, do not believe those who say something else.

Posted by: S | Sep 21 2023 16:37 utc | 213

With Azerbaijan no longer having any territorial disputes, it can now apply for NATO membership. But the West will focus on Armenia first.

Posted by: S | Sep 21 2023 16:43 utc | 215

the Sikhs had their own nation state in the 19th century that governed a vast territory of Northern India. The British annexed the Sikh Kingdom into India and upon leaving India they offered Sikhs their own country back. However, Indian leaders made promises to the Sikhs that if they stayed with India the would provide them with rights that would protect their identity, ie allow them to govern their state of Punjab as an autonomous area, reserve certain amounts of seats to them in federal government, so that they would have a voice.
After independence of India the Indian leadership refused to honor any of the promises made. This began the process of demanding independence from India.
India has done their utmost to silence descent by implementing numerous laws that outlaw the promotion of Khalistan within India. However, they are unable to stop Sikhs living abroad from promoting the idea. Sikhs demand a Referendum to resolve the issue of who should govern Punjab, but India calls that terrorism.
Hardeep Singh Nijjar was a vocal supporter of Khalistan and the Referendum campaign. India wanted Canada to extradite him to India. India called him a terrorist but provided no evidence that would justify his extradition. The campaign for a referendum has become very popular. A few months before Mr. Nijjar’s assassination, India put a bounty on his head for anyone who gives information that leads to his arrest. Soon after he was shot dead.
Sikhs around the world blamed India as this was a familiar pattern they had seen in Punjab where India regularly did judicial killings. But now Canada and its leader has also made this accusation.
It is clear that Canada exposed India publicly because of India’s continued support of Russia. However, this does not take away from the fact that India does suppress the demand for Khalistan within India and did kill a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil.

Posted by: thirdEye | Sep 21 2023 21:16 utc | 217

I didn’t want to speak too soon — it now looks like Antarctic sea-ice extent has passed its seasonal maximum:
https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/
This is three weeks earlier and more than a million square kilometers lower than usual. In years of tracking such things, I never before saw an index wander so far from the mean, as we’re seeing with Antarctic sea-ice in 2023. Like someone flipped a switch. Probably a confluence of deep-ocean factors colliding to produce an irreversible physical extreme packing civilizational implications, especially for impending proprietors of instant swampland in Florida.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Sep 21 2023 22:01 utc | 219

I also can’t get the RSS for MoA. I use the Old Reader. Tried deleting the feed and resubscribing but it says it can’t find the site.

Posted by: Psellus | Sep 21 2023 22:56 utc | 221

I opened Twitter again. The first thing that came up was this propaganda splash by #EUvsChildSexualAbuse, evidently a sister tumor of #EUvsDisinfo.

EU Home Affairs @EUHomeAffairs – Ad
⚠️Abusers hide behind screens while children suffer in silence
⏳It is time to put an end to child sexual abuse #online
🇫🇮 The majority of citizens support the EU proposal #EUvsChildSexualAbuse
And you? Learn more here ↓

According to the video (in Finnish) 93% of Finnish sheep citizens want to abolish Briefgeheimnis. I also learn that the EU wants to ban end-to-end encryption.
This degradation of rights is a result of American cultural influences. Central European countries may not always have had Anglo-Saxon “democracy”, but they have strong ethical and legal traditions guaranteeing a Rechtsstaat and Briefgeheimnis. (Both are German concepts that have no equivalent in the English language.)

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 21 2023 23:26 utc | 223