Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 01, 2023

As The U.S. Wages War On It China Reacts With Defiance

Just as U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo returns from China her department issues new restrictions on chip deliveries:

The United States has broadened restrictions on the export of high-performance artificial intelligence chips by Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), extending them beyond China to other regions, including some countries in the Middle East, amid rising concerns about Beijing’s access to critical AI resources.

Reuters reported Thursday that a regulatory filing by Nvidia stated that its state-of-the-art A100 and H100 chips, which speed up machine learning on AI apps such as ChatGPT had been put on a “no-export” list.

The attempt is to prevent 'leaks' of chips from countries like the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia to Russia and China. But, as I noted yesterday, China is already making chips of equal capacity:

Huawei's compute GPU capabilities are now on par with Nvidia's A100 GPUs, Liu Qingfeng, founder and chairman of Chinese AI company iFlytek, said at the 19th Summer Summit of the 2023 Yabuli China Entrepreneurs Forum (via IT Home).

Liu Qingfeng stated that Huawei has made significant strides in the GPU sector, achieving capabilities and performance comparable to Nvidia's A100 GPU.

China is not only autarkic in making chips but now also in making the delicate machines needed to make chips:

China’s etching equipment giant Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC) has reported hefty growth in earnings and revenue in the first half of 2023 thanks to strong demand for local tools as a result of US tech export controls, the company’s founder and CEO Gerald Yin Zhiyao said on Friday.
...
AMEC’s market share of China’s capacitively coupled plasma (CCP) etching equipment market is expected to reach 60 per cent in the near future from 24 per cent last October, Yin said. In the inductive coupled plasma (ICP) tool market, Yin said its share could rise to 75 per cent from almost zero after once-dominant Lam Research from the US saw its share drop sharply.
...
As China deepens its semiconductor self-sufficiency drive to include chip-making equipment and key components, Yin said that 80 per cent of restricted, imported parts at AMEC can be replaced domestically by the end of this year, with 100 per cent replacement following in the second half next year.

The New York Times resume of Secretary Raimondo's and other's trips is somewhat amusing:

U.S. Officials Are Streaming to China. Will Beijing Return the Favor?

Batteridge's law responds with "No!" There were obviously no 'favors' from either side:

When Gina Raimondo, the secretary of commerce, left China this week, it marked the end of a three-month diplomatic blitz by the Biden administration to try to stabilize ties with Beijing and arrest a free fall in the relationship that had raised concerns about the risk of conflict.

President Biden had bet that high-level dialogue could help manage an escalating rivalry over trade, technology and the status of Taiwan. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken was the first to make the trip to the Chinese capital in June, followed by Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and the presidential climate envoy, John Kerry, in July.

After logging all those miles, the question now is whether China will reciprocate by sending senior Chinese ministers to Washington.

The people Biden sent on visits in China had nothing to give and were given nothing. The U.S. attempt to deceive China by holding useless talks while it ramps up its cold war cordon around China have failed.

As long as that policy continues there is nothing of substance that China could gain by sending people to Washington DC. Holding talks just to keep talking about nothing does not make sense. So evidently no Chinese envoy will come.

Patrick Lawrence is trashing Biden's strategy as he finds that the travels to China are not designed to talk with Chine but to deceive Americans:

Proposing to conduct routine business while sabotaging China’s competitive position in advanced technologies is prima facie a ridiculous idea.
...
The Biden administration’s China strategy comes down to parrying, in a word. All the pointless talk is intended to obscure a concerted effort to undermine China’s economy because the U.S. cannot compete with it in various strategic sectors, while — part two — buying time to move maximum U.S. military hardware as close to the mainland as possible under the program the Defense Department named a few years ago the Pacific Defense Initiative, the PDI.
...
The Chinese know this and have said so many times. I no longer think Blinken, Yellen, et al. have any thought of persuading them otherwise on these journeys. That only looks like their intent.

Their true purpose is in the way of theatrical, and Americans are their true audience: They must make sure Americans do not understand Gina Raimondo’s efforts to punch the Chinese, well below their belts, for what they are: an uncompetitive nation’s attempts to hold back a rising economic power.
...
The Biden regime is buying time as it remilitarizes the western end of the Pacific.

The only people who are supposed to understand otherwise are Americans, who are not supposed to watch as Washington provokes and prosecutes Cold War II. Americans are supposed to watch as U.S. officials — reasonable, constructive, well-intended —make all efforts to talk to the Chinese in the face of their stubborn reluctance to cooperate.

This is my revised take on the Blinken–Yellen–Kerry–Raimondo cavalcade across the Pacific. These people are not clods. They are purposefully malicious and, it should go without saying, are making the world even more dangerous than it already is.

Peter Lee has just come back from a visit to China. He is reporting of of a new, someone snobby to hostile attitude towards Americans. It is justified:

After all, America and Americans are suspect for good reason.

As I’ve pointed out on my twitter several times, US aggression against the PRC, misleadingly packaged as US-China tensions, is a virtual full-spectrum assault, only stopping short, for now anyway, of direct military action. The US is determined to degrade the PRC’s military, economic, and international security and domestic social and political stability in all available dimensions. Concessions are tactical; attacks are strategic.
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The CCP perhaps hopes Western failure in Ukraine will slake the G7 thirst for anti-authoritarian jihad and hopes economic relations and foreign direct investment with China will recover but hope is not a plan. Not with the United States pumping hundreds of billions of dollars to finance global anti-PRC economic, military, diplomatic, political, soft power, and media initiatives.

I believe this increasingly plausible worst-case scenario is driving a lot of PRC decision-making (and drives the barrage of resentful criticism of PRC policy choices in the Western media).
...
Will the CCP succeed?

The product it’s pitching to its citizens and to the world—that’s multilateralism via economic engagement—is fundamentally more attractive to a lot of countries than the deficit driven global War to Save Democracy that the US is peddling. Given money, perseverance, luck, and time the PRC might be able to thread the needle.

But ... there’s that “time” thing. There’s the rub.

My opinion is, if the CCP is succeeding, in other words if it shows significant progress in establishing a robust parallel international order that can shield it from US economic aggression, the US will start a hot war to see if it can truly f*ck China up.

Because the only US response to failure is escalation.

And that’s why my profile says “pessimist”.

As Peter had noted last year China's government has for quite some time prepared for this.

Well, let's hope that it does not come to another war.

But Peter is right. The U.S. is typically willing to double down in its aggressions.

It continues to play dirty games in Asia to get what it wants (h/t Carl Zha).

On August 24 the Defense Minister of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto, visited the Pentagon. After the meeting the U.S. issued a:

United States DoD and Indonesia MoD Joint Press Statement

Minister Prabowo and Secretary Austin agreed that the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific and the United States' Indo-Pacific Strategy share fundamental principles, such as a commitment to maintaining peace, security, stability, and prosperity in the region through ASEAN Centrality, and that we should work alongside partners who share these goals and a commitment to an open, inclusive, and rules-based order. They shared the view that the People's Republic of China's (PRC) expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea are inconsistent with international law as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

That however has not been Indonesia's position. China noticed that the Pentagon was lying. It protested:

JAKARTA, KOMPAS - The Chinese Embassy in Jakarta has objected to the press statement issued by the United States Department of Defense regarding the defense cooperation with Indonesia in the South China Sea. The press statement stated that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto both agreed that China's expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea were inconsistent with international law.

"After comparing the US press statement with the press statement released by the Indonesian Ministry of Defense, the sentence that accuses and corners China only appears in the US Ministry of Defense press release," said the objection response signed by the spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in Jakarta, Monday (28/8/2023)."

Today the Indonesian defense minister confirmed that the U.S. 'Joint Press Statement' is fake (machine translation):

Jakarta, KOMPAS - Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto confirmed that there was no joint statement with the US Defense Ministry when he met US Defense Minister Lloyd Austin last week. Prabowo said that Indonesia is in principle friendly to all countries and adheres to a free and active foreign policy.

“Indonesia's position is very clear. We are non-aligned. We are non-aligned, we are friendly with all countries. So I think that's what matters, " Prabowo said after handing over an electric trail bike for the TNI and Polri at the Ministry of Defense, Thursday (31/8).

Prabowo stressed that there was no joint statement with the US Defense Ministry. The Pentagon said in a joint statement that the two ministers shared similar views on China's maritime claims and expansionist actions in the South China Sea. In this regard, in line with the principle of active freedom, Prabowo again emphasized that Indonesia has good relations with China, the United States and Russia.

The Pentagon's diplomatic faux pas, issuing a 'Joint Statement' when none had been agreed upon, may well become costly. Indonesia and other will surely take note of it and will be prepared to loudly dismiss any recurance.

Posted by b on September 1, 2023 at 16:55 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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As China becomes the dominate country on the planet, the US fights back in a embarrassing way.

Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Sep 1 2023 17:04 utc | 1

President Biden had bet that high-level dialogue could help manage an escalating rivalry over trade, technology and the status of Taiwan.

I cannot say that I have ever read any high level dialogue emanating from the US in a very long time.
It's been sound bites since Bush mostly.

Posted by: jpc | Sep 1 2023 17:11 utc | 2

thanks b...

image is everything and content nothing... this is coming to sum up usa - the west - at this point.. thus the need to lie, obfuscate and etc. etc..

Posted by: james | Sep 1 2023 17:34 utc | 3

China is not only autarkic in making chips...

Here's to hoping that both the Concept and Practice of Autarky becomes more prevalent (at a minimum for the Basic Necessities of each nation).

We'll see, as the Keynes Bancor finally gets to prove itself, 79 years after being summarily rejected by the US at Bretton Woods.

Posted by: The Archivist | Sep 1 2023 17:45 utc | 4

China like Russia continues it's foreign policy with great restraint and patience. They know all they have to do to succeed is to survive while the US continues it's policy of self destruction. Napoleon put it best: "Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake."

Posted by: JustAMaverick | Sep 1 2023 17:48 utc | 5

The empire wanted to neuter Russia before heating up the conflict with China, but it is running out of time. Trump's upset victory in 2016 set imperial plans back by at least four years, and the pandemic severely tarnished America's "soft power", weakening its control over vassals. There appears to be a growing sense of panic and indecision among the imperial leadership. The empire is declining fast, and a point will come where even in the best case delusion it will be obvious that nukes cannot help save the empire. We need to get past that point without the fireworks flying. I believe the Russians and Chinese know that and it is why they are keeping their cool and not taking the empire's bait.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 17:51 utc | 6

b, I thought I was super clever today and guessed that there was some German equivalent to the above situation that was being indirectly referenced. Fake ‘joint statement’? Everyone’s been talking about how the war on Ukraine has really been a war against Germany. Ok, but I can’t find anything so, yeah. Not so much.

But thank you for highlighting this incredible transgression. A fake joint statement is really a violation of the rules-based order!! Glad to hear that it may become costly to those behind it.

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Sep 1 2023 17:58 utc | 7

@William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 17:51 utc | 6

Trump's upset victory in 2016 set imperial plans back by at least four years

Is that why the deep state wants to stop Trump by ALL means this time because they don't want to lose "4 more years"?!


I believe the Russians and Chinese know that and it is why they are keeping their cool and not taking the empire's bait.

I hope so but won't underestimate amerikkkan evilness. It is likely it will use Taiwan to create a situation like Ukraine to Russia in 2022. Taiwan, especially DPP and company, is the most loyal dog to amerikkka in the universe. The window to use Taiwan as a bait for "max benefits to amerikkka" is closing. All sides know this (even the loyal dog itself). That's why amerikkka ships a lot of weaponry to Taiwan now and why Chinese military keeps training around Taiwan on a daily basis.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Sep 1 2023 18:11 utc | 8

Fact is that it is always Ukraine who succeeds in advancing on attack phase while Russian troops except Wagner and chechans mostly retreat. It was supposed to be Russian attack to release Donbass from clutches of Ukraine and not other way. Russia has shown dismal performance in leadership. When usa wanted to enter Syria despite Russian presence there, usa took only one week to establish herself inside Syria albeit illegally.
Here Russia has taken 50p days plus with more Russian deaths than entire nato deaths in last 30 years! Such people like 'saker"and martyni are real enemies of Russia and not prigovhin and Streov.

Posted by: Sam | Sep 1 2023 18:13 utc | 9

The US is rabid and needs to be put down like a rabid animal. Same goes for its controllers, wherever they are.

Posted by: Jusses | Sep 1 2023 18:16 utc | 10

Make the Belt/Road through St. Louis/La Paz not just Panama. South/North America to join ICRABS, SCARIB, RuBICSA.

Posted by: Atown | Sep 1 2023 18:16 utc | 11

"Pacific Defense Initiative" my ass.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 1 2023 18:26 utc | 12

Posted by: Sam | Sep 1 2023 18:13 utc | 9

I don’t want to state the obvious but the Ukraine is NATO in all but name. According to most people it has between 400 000 to 1.2 million DEAD. Lowest amt I mentioned is about what the US lost in WWII. Highest amt is what I actually believe via lost SIM cards and amputees etc as someone else mentioned here.

I also want the war over quickly , but can see that Russia works with constraints that the US doesn’t have.

Posted by: Wondrous | Sep 1 2023 18:32 utc | 13

Interesting poster from 1971

https://www.classicposters.com/poster/271/

Posted by: Mantooth | Sep 1 2023 18:42 utc | 14

"These people are not clods. They are purposefully malicious" - kudos! Yes! Or at least, the true ruling elite are, though they like to use morons as proxies both because morons won't get ideas of their own, and moron proxies can result in the true ruling elites being 'misunderestimated'.

Although the true ruling elites are not infallible - they really messed up when they DEMANDED that the Untied (auto-correct error but I think I like it) States ship the core of its industrial base to communist China. Why are the officials and 'economists' etc. who screamed and howled that we HAD TO ship our industries to China BECAUSE ADAM SMITH IS GOD not held to account? (A rhetorical question, and BTW Adam Smith is not God).

I think we have an asymmetry here - the western elites are increasingly incompetent/uninterested in real physical strength, but they are masters of manipulation/misdirection/subversion etc. I mean, look at how for very little cost they took over Ukraine in 2014 and brainwashed them into mindless zombie slaves who are going to destroy their entire nation for the sole purpose of bleeding Russia? Now that's power.

China and Russia etc. have real strengths, but they should not misunderestimate just how viciously effective the western elites can be, when they are fighting on their own terms.

Posted by: TG | Sep 1 2023 18:47 utc | 15

Patrick Lawrence: This is my revised take on the Blinken–Yellen–Kerry–Raimondo cavalcade across the Pacific. These people are not clods. They are purposefully malicious and, it should go without saying, are making the world even more dangerous than it already is.
------------------------------------------------
Thank you b for the entire article.

Putin's go slow approach in Ukraine seems designed to avoid triggering the US into more drastic actions than it already has.

The BRICS might be watching with some degree of nervousness. Uncle Sam is an 800 pound canary, trying to sit wherever it wants to.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 1 2023 18:50 utc | 16

The people Biden sent on visits in China had nothing to give and were given nothing. The U.S. attempt to deceive China by holding useless talks while it ramps up its cold war cordon around China have failed.

b is absolutely right, as always.

The U.S. gave nothing because the trips weren't intended for giving China anything. Not even to deliver messages. It's all part of U.S. domestic politics, to give the impression that the Empire is still supreme so that when U.S. official demand to visit China appears to HAVE TO accept. OTOH, to win votes and to display Tarzan mentality, Biden & Company have to talk tough and nasty in public to fool the U.S. public but not incite China. This kind of Cabinet level meetings give the impression that war is not an immediate prospect since China is still willing to listen. The same types of tactic has been employed wrt China and Russia since the Clinton years. American politicians and think tanks are fully trained and adroit at using this.

China sees through all these and plays along because doing so entails no actual losses. Even when China gives verbal consent to certain so-called agreements reached and announced subsequent to such visits, China doesn't count on the U.S. abiding by these agreements anyway, as history has taught them so. It's all theatrics/optics to pull a veil over real under currents between the two sides so that the global public doesn't get panic. Meanwhile, China marches on, breaking through one sanction regime after another and catching the Empire napping in science, security hardware, economies, and even human intellects. I myself have lived here in the U.S. for 54 years now and have never seen the general public here so dumb and juvenile than ever before.

Let them juveniles win PR/faces/momentary rushes similar to their football team scoring meaningless touchdowns, while in reality they are collectively sliding down that slope as reflected in their slide in life expectancy after spending as much as the RoW combined in healthcare expenditures. It's about the same in defense spendings, or the so-called revivals of manufacturing. China is content with shaking a few Gringo hands from time to time to allow them pacify their domestic audiences. China's real attention is on perfecting military hardware capabilities so that when war DOES break out, New Yor/Chicago/LA are as vulnerable to incineration as Shanghai/Beijing/Guangzhou.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Sep 1 2023 18:51 utc | 17

Holding talks just to keep talking about nothing does not make sense.

Perhaps it makes sense in some cases. Diplomacy is weird. Sometimes it is urgent to do nothing while doing something.

Thanks for the interesting information in your post. It looks like a screw up by Austin.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 1 2023 18:53 utc | 18

Dense and thoughtful post, b, thanks for sharing!

That fake joint statement… omg just when you think they can’t be any more phoney.

Posted by: Rae | Sep 1 2023 18:54 utc | 19

The war of attrition favours Russia, however the longer it takes for Russia to quell the Ukrainian/NATO aggression the more difficult it will be have a true victory. The light hand of Russia in the SMO mindset is a state of denial by the leadership to the fact this is a war. I’m dissatisfied with Russia for not taking Kiev yet.

Posted by: Bill Miner | Sep 1 2023 18:55 utc | 20

Excellent analysis b, thank you.
America is a land of illusion and anybody that thinks Trump made or will make any difference is delusional. He must have known, as president, that the Minsk accords were fake, a mere pretext while the west built up Ukraine in order to attack, defeat and dismember Russia. Trump's sole interest in bettering relations with Russia is in making money for Trump; he doesn't give a rat's arse what wars are threatened or occurring as long as he personally profits. He desperately wants to become part of the shadow government--the real government whose policies and ends never change--but he's too narcissistic and unstable to qualify. Besides not being nearly wealthy enough; Trump's wealth is all on paper and in bits and bytes. He's one of America's prime illusionists.

Posted by: pasha | Sep 1 2023 18:57 utc | 21

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 1 2023 18:53 utc | 18

it doesn't make sense for China in this case, though.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 1 2023 19:03 utc | 22

The war of attrition favours Russia, however the longer it takes for Russia to quell the Ukrainian/NATO aggression the more difficult it will be have a true victory. The light hand of Russia in the SMO mindset is a state of denial by the leadership to the fact this is a war. I’m dissatisfied with Russia for not taking Kiev yet.

Posted by: Bill Miner | Sep 1 2023 18:55 utc | 20

Strong disagree. Russia is winning a war for its survival while expending as little energy and resources as necessary to accomplish its goals. Ukraine has bled itself dry trying to take back a few inches of territory that Russia has conquered. If any other powers in Eastern Europe (Poland, Lithuania, Romania, etc.) are actually stupid enough or crazy enough to jump-in on Ukraine's side, they'll also get chewed-up by the Russians with very little effort. Meanwhile, NATO is draining itself of its entire stock of munitions just trying to keep Ukraine in the fight, which means less inventory if the US decides to start anymore bullshit elsewhere in the world.

Posted by: Monos | Sep 1 2023 19:04 utc | 23

The CP has been waging asymmetrical war against the USA for more than 30 years. It's WAY past time that we accepted that reality and started fighting back.

Posted by: Dan | Sep 1 2023 19:06 utc | 24


Trump always made me think of what the great american humorist Will Rogers said "We knew he was a crook when we sent him to Washington, but he was our crook"

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Sep 1 2023 19:07 utc | 25

They also yesterday put the Middle East in the China category as far as AI chips are concerned, which the Saudis won't be happy about.

Written in 2009. The author was the FT Japan correspondent for a decade, so the language is predictably "West = free". But it's what he says that's important, and it's 14 years ago:

http://www.fingleton.net/extract-from-in-the-jaws-of-the-dragon/

Two bets are on the table. One has been placed by the Washington establishment, the other by the Chinese Communist Party. Analyzing China’s prospects in terms of fashionable globalist ideology, Washington is betting that a rich China will be a free one. The theory is that the only way China can continue to grow is by embracing Western democracy and capitalism. Moreover, the very process of China’s enrichment is supposedly undermining the Beijing government’s authoritarianism. More wealth means more freedom means more wealth. Here is how President George W Bush put it: “As China reforms its economy, its leaders are finding that once the door to freedom is opened even a crack, it cannot be closed. As the people of China grow in prosperity, their demands for political freedom will grow as well.”

Similar optimism pours forth from the American press. The Wall Street Journal commented, “Sooner or later China’s economic progress will create the internal conditions for a more democratic regime that will be more stable, and less of a potential global rival.” Abroad too the Washington view is increasingly prevalent. After visiting Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, then British Prime Minister Tony Blair cited the rise of a Chinese middle class and the spread of the Internet as factors that had produced “an unstoppable momentum … towards greater political freedom [and] progress on human rights.”

The Washington view has become so widely accepted that almost no one has noticed that there is second bet on the table–that of the Chinese leadership. It has been placed on a disturbingly different outcome: that a future China can be both rich and authoritarian. In the great debate over China’s future, Chinese leaders’ jobs, if not their heads, are on the line. It is reasonable to conclude that they have considered their options carefully. Moreover, they enjoy the advantage of local knowledge. They have studied their nation’s history and know its mind.

Those on the other side are pathetically uninformed. They don’t understand that the Chinese economic system is not capitalism, nor is it converging toward capitalism. China is operating an adaptation of the East Asian economic system launched in Manchuria in the 1930s, perfected in Japan proper in the 1950s and 1960s, and now widely copied throughout East Asia. As itemized by Richard Bernstein and Ross Munro in their 1997 The Coming Conflict with China, features of the Chinese version of the East Asian economic model include a labyrinthine system of trade barriers; an artificially undervalued currency; an industrial policy focused on developing pillar industries and using export subsidies to give them competitive advantage; and pressure on foreign companies to transfer their production technologies. If Washington is right, the future is unclouded, and a fast-rising China can readily be accommodated within the existing Western-defined world order. But what if China’s leaders turn out to understand the Chinese character better than anyone in Washington? What if in 2025 or 2030 the United States finds itself facing off against a China so rich that it has surpassed all other nations in military technology yet remains resolutely opposed to Western values? The implications are hard to exaggerate.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Sep 1 2023 19:07 utc | 26

@LuRenJia, #8:

I hope so but won't underestimate amerikkkan evilness. It is likely it will use Taiwan to create a situation like Ukraine to Russia in 2022....

Don't worry LuRenJia. Taiwan would not be a replay of Ukie. Taiwan cannot withhold a Chinese arial assault for more than a day. In about 2 hours Taiwan military ware will be defanged completely. Without Chinese troupe occupation, Taiwan's own people would clean out their own roaches in a few weeks because of livelihood hardship and bleak future prospects. Then those who don't want to be Chinese will be allowed to go to America or Japan, whoever would accept them. Those left behind will negotiate the workable settlement for peace.

There are lots of traitors in Taiwan, true. But they are not like the Nazis of Ukie tending to shoot whoever doesn't comply with Nazi mandates to fight on frontlines.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Sep 1 2023 19:08 utc | 27

It is always amusing to see the US trying to stabilise its relation with countries while at the same time openly and continuously carrying out offensive and destabilising actions towards the said countries.

Posted by: scc | Sep 1 2023 19:09 utc | 28

Rules based order hahahahahahaaa! No one has ever seen the rules, or written them. Only one rule: Do what the US orders you to do.

Posted by: Cyclingnut | Sep 1 2023 19:13 utc | 29

Aside from all the chips & trade articles, the truth is that it’s a toss up what military adventure snaps first, a South China Sea or an EU land war? Or simultaneously?

The South China Sea is becoming as perilous as the Ukraine mess, one false move, continued provocation, a South Korean stray anything into North Korea…

Frankly, the world is a tinderbox unlike any time before. It’s not like WW1 or 2… it’s a global tinderbox… West, Middle East, East… all have embers…

All I see is a “resolve” made by Putin & Xi, that there will be no more “impunity” for West. No more West “globocop” in trade, transport, resources or financials, territory.

And I don’t think they care if others want to keep being West poodles, it’s iron curtain down time, or nukes fly.
Xi & Putin no longer care what “West” wants. The West would not win a conventional war with Russia & China, so not much else left except to grab as many willing to “side” with West and become a pariah power, disconnected from Eastern block. It would be very different from first Cold War.

But aside from that, not seeing any other options that West would choose. Some Western voices that are sane, and that would like US to recede from global affairs, recalibrate, and realign their own country & reconfigure their foreign alliances, will never be heard. So it’s Cold War or Hot War and the current “limbo/normalcy” is rapidly bending.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 1 2023 19:14 utc | 30

US concern for the sanctity of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea is baffling, since China has ratified the Convention and has been a member for years, while the US has never ratified it and is never been a member. Meanwhile, the US and the UK are under an international order that they vacate the island of Diego Garcia and are ignoring that order.

Posted by: William Verick | Sep 1 2023 19:15 utc | 31

A fake joint statement from the Pentagon. Go figga.

A fish rots from the head... With leadership like Austin and Milley, it would be only a matter of short time before the rot spread to every fin and scale.

This is true of every agency in the US. Maybe most businesses and organizations.

I don't see how the corrupt are going to pull themselves out of it.

Posted by: oracle | Sep 1 2023 19:18 utc | 32

LuRenJia @8: "Is that why the deep state wants to stop Trump by ALL means this time because they don't want to lose "4 more years"?!"

Another Trump win would be an enormous problem for the empire. That would amount to a revolt by a big part of the population against the Establishment. The US needs a revolt, but such a revolt would be mostly leaderless, so I cannot guess how it would turn out. For sure, though, it would paralyze the empire again and that would be good for the rest of the world.

It is likely it will use Taiwan to create a situation like Ukraine to Russia in 2022

College kids in Taiwan were pretty crazy with their worship of everything American when I taught there, but they didn't seem crazy enough to think they could beat the mainland in a fight. Maybe they have gotten crazier since then, I don't know. The adults certainly didn't seem to be itching for conflict. Hopefully they are all watching what is going down in the Ukraine and realizing that fighting America's fights isn't good for the proxies.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 19:24 utc | 33

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 19:24 utc | 33

i agree, Trump at least slows the empire down, while it deals with a president it doesn't completely control.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 1 2023 19:29 utc | 34

The fake "joint" US-Indonesia statement came out around the time when BRICS was working on membership expansion, and Indonesia is one (out of around 40) of the countries that expresses interest in joining.

Whether US fears BRICS expansion, go figure.

Posted by: d dan | Sep 1 2023 19:34 utc | 35

Another fascinating piece from b. Thank you.

Both sides contributing to the ongoing bifurcation.

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC) is a Qualcomm portfolio company. Qualcomm put in millions back in 2007. Like so many such companies it is both Chinese and GloboCap.

The geopolitical bifurcation will continue just as Qualcomm will continue to profit. No worries, mate.

At some point, the West will be so beaten down, aided by the elites driving their nations into cognitively dissonant depression, they will capitulate and happily join the new multipolar order managed via the UN, WHO, WTO, IMF et alia. They just have to get those pesky republican-conservative-sovereigntist-freedom-loving types to finally abandon their quaint old ways and rather embrace confucian-style collectivism. It will happen one way or another.

First though, as with most historic adjustments, aka revolutions, several million will die, and ten times that number suffer greatly. Otherwise they won't be properly motivated. So it has always been, so it will be.

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 1 2023 19:39 utc | 36

An exceptional, indispensable nation like the US will not honor any agreement when it becomes inconvenient. I trust its nato allies are watching, they may very well find the US won't declare war, if say Poland or the baltics invokes article 5. Indeed, it's not even required under the treaty.

As for China, well, they are already arming and encouraging Taiwan to become an "independent" vassal. I'm sure they have no illusions about US "diplomacy"

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 1 2023 19:40 utc | 37

Posted by: Bill Miner | Sep 1 2023 18:55 utc | 20

#########

William, what constitutes "a true victory"?

Is it de-militarizing NATO? Is it restructuring the domestic economy to be more independent? Is it developing and growing international relations and the institutions, that facilitate cooperation and trade?

Or as you just talking about the things that can explode?

Not claiming to be an expert on the Russian civilization yet in my observations, the Russians have something that no one outside of China has. Civilizational memory and purpose.

America doesn't have it. Germany doesn't have it. Australia doesn't have it. The Indians are trying to discover it but they cannot overcome their own internal dysfunction to unite all Indians (Sikh, Christian, Hindu, Buddhist, and Muslim) under one flag.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2023 19:44 utc | 38

Posted by: Dan | Sep 1 2023 19:06 utc | 24

#############

Friend, who is "we"?

America has been overthrowing governments and invading non-aggressors for over a century. Whatever any country does in return, pales in comparison to the atrocities of American foreign policy that goes back to at least the Mexican-American war.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2023 19:47 utc | 39

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 19:24 utc | 33

i agree, Trump at least slows the empire down, while it deals with a president it doesn't completely control.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 1 2023 19:29 utc | 34

The judge in his Georgia prosecution just made an unusual order: his entire trial next year is to be live streamed and televised.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 1 2023 19:56 utc | 40

@Oriental Voice | Sep 1 2023 19:08 utc | 27

There are lots of traitors in Taiwan, true. But they are not like the Nazis of Ukie tending to shoot whoever doesn't comply with Nazi mandates to fight on frontlines.

Most of people in Taiwan now lean to DPP's political stand- Taiwan independence from China. The efforts to remove Chinese heritage from Taiwanese started in mid-1990 and come to fruition. So it is almost 30 years in the work. It will take time to correct that with "re-education" after reunion.

The weaponry that amerikkka gives to Taiwan now is for near-fight like in a city or on a street. It does not mean to keep PLA from landing but for more casualty in the cities. The bloodier the better for amerikkkan propaganda. It is Taiwanese blood, not amerikkkan. I don't recall amerikkka ever cares about its vassal or dog, even the most loyal one. In addition, Taiwan DPP regime did a few things under amerikkkan "instructions" recently:

1. Extended the mandatory military service from 4 months to 1 year, starting early 2024.
2. Expanded its military police branch (probably doubling from its current size). One retired general of Taiwan army was very upset when he saw this news. He commented that this expansion means to force those draftees to go forward in a war with PLA.
3. Taiwan's MoD plans to use the draftees for coastal defense, which will be the first to meet PLA from the sea. This is basically human shield because those draftees are very likely not well trained.
4. One can see amerikkkan "advisers" in Taiwan military training/drills from news reports now, meaning they don't even bother to hide it.

I agree that Taiwanese are not like the Nazis of Ukie but the amount of traitors in Taiwan may not be small number either (both DPP and KMT plus others). And amerikkka will try its "best" to maximize its interests when the conflict arises. Not sure if you are aware that the de facto amerikkkan embassy in Taiwan is one of the largest ones by size, possibly in the top 3. And amerikkka even asked Taiwan government for more land for its Taiwan embassy a few months ago. Tsai's regime and the local government (Taipei City) dare not to hand the land to the master. Why does amerikkka need such a big embassy in Taiwan?! amerikkka has a 99-year land lease for its Taiwan embassy in one of Taipei City golden districts on a very cheap term. The 99-year lease lets me think british's "lease" of HK.

All in all, a ruinous Taiwan is to amerikkkan's best interest if it can't keep it.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Sep 1 2023 20:03 utc | 41

"Pacific Defense Initiative" my ass.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 1 2023 18:26 utc | 12

defense.gov | 2022 National Defense Strategy, 80pp pdf

Including 2022 Nuclear Posture Review and 2022 Missile Defense Review!
center of psychoville:"attritable capabilities"
defense.gov | Hicks Underscores U.S. Innovation in Unveiling Strategy to Counter China's Military Buildup
LOL
Pentagon Wants to Buy 1,000s of Small, Cheap, Autonomous Drones in Next Two Years

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 1 2023 20:07 utc | 42

@William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 19:24 utc | 33

Hopefully they are all watching what is going down in the Ukraine and realizing that fighting America's fights isn't good for the proxies.

Thanks for your reply but I don't mean to disappoint you. My impression is that quite a number of people in Taiwan think Ukraine is "winning". The press in Taiwan basically parrots whatever the msm in the west says plus their deep envy to everything amerikkka (like you said- it was then and it is still the same today).

Also, quite a number of Taiwanese think amerikkka, especially DPP base, will come to help should China "start the reunion process".

Posted by: LuRenJia | Sep 1 2023 20:10 utc | 43

put the Middle East
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Sep 1 2023 19:07 utc | 26

US expands Nvidia, AMD AI chip export curbs to some Middle East countries
Coooold it be that straying from the reservation is what ticked off State.gov?

BRICS (2009 FTA): AE, AR, BR, CN, EG, ET, IN, IR, RU, SA, ZA

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 1 2023 20:25 utc | 44


USA to Indonesia: Hey Beautiful, what are the chances of you and me getting together to harass the shite out of China?

Indonesia: Not great.

USA: OK, but what are the odds? You know hypothetically...

Indonesia: I don't know. One in a million.

USA: Awesome! I'll draw up a letter of intent!

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Sep 1 2023 20:34 utc | 45

Forbidding exports of cutting-edge technology to China emerges from the flagrantly racist theory that Chinese aren't bright enough to figure things out by themselves. This is like the absurdity of US American paranoia in 1953, when Ethel & Julius Rosenberg were convicted and executed for leaking nuclear secrets to the Russians -- as if nuclear physics did not exist in Russia way back then.

The only way Russian or Chinese savages can advance themselves is by deviously stealing our most precious pearls of western wisdom, as it were.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Sep 1 2023 20:35 utc | 46

Thanks b. What would happen if China/Russia just started releasing news for the west and news for the rest. News for the west w be how the west was winning and crushing it over there up here and down there. News for the rest would consist of a more real politik variety where things were objective and emotions werent abused. The SMO proves the west can spin quite the tale so its not impossible. Lol maybe even Tucker w praise the Chinese.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Sep 1 2023 20:45 utc | 47

TG @15: "...[the US ruling elites] really messed up when they DEMANDED that the Untied (auto-correct error but I think I like it) States ship the core of its industrial base to communist China."

If the United States had not begun de-industrializing/financializing its economy it would have been in very deep economic depression (like the Great Depression, only on steroids) by the mid 1980s, and it probably would have stayed there until WWIII. We have not had WWIII yet, so I wouldn't call it a mistake on the part of the imperial elites. Sure, they were just kicking the can down the road, but it bought the empire almost half a century of life.

...for very little cost they took over Ukraine in 2014 and brainwashed them into mindless zombie slaves who are going to destroy their entire nation for the sole purpose of bleeding Russia?

For the sole purpose of pleasing their imaginary heroes in the USA.

But that hero-worship is fading in the world. That hero-worship was built up in no small part by illusory imagery of America in entertainment mass media intended to build patriotism in the American working class. That mass media had an impact internationally as well, and many people around the world developed fantastical notions of what America was really about.

Over the last decade and a half, though, the mass media has switched to different messaging ("Get woke, go broke") that isn't resonating with the common folk, neither in America nor globally. For this and other reasons, the "Shining City on the Hill" is losing its shine. From this point forward it will be increasingly difficult for the CIA to find people stupid enough to be recruited as cannon fodder for the empire.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 20:48 utc | 48

I'm sure MoA barflies know that the Pentagon vets and has always vetted Hollywood films, especially those films based on military and war narratives and themes. Who would have thought that Hollywood-style manipulation would come back to infect Pentagon thinking and public relations?

Posted by: Jen | Sep 1 2023 20:55 utc | 49

@jen 50

Art mimicking life mimicking art.

Yup, a feedback loop, a negative one.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 1 2023 21:02 utc | 50

Themanwhofelltoearth @ 44:

Trump's trial would far surpass the old Jerry Springer Show and Judge Judy in entertainment value.

Even the OJ Simpson trial back in the 1990s might be eclipsed. After all, OJ Simpson was nowhere near the showboat that Trump is, and in Trump's trial at least, there are no murder victims.

Posted by: Jen | Sep 1 2023 21:04 utc | 51

☠️ asks:

But whadda bouts dem Nippon 🇯🇵 Yakuza loyal yanqui vassals?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/19/japan-pm-kishida-wants-to-abolish-nuclear-arms-but-build-military

Posted by: Skull | Sep 1 2023 21:24 utc | 52

All in all, a ruinous Taiwan is to amerikkkan's best interest if it can't keep it.

I agree with this statement :-). It's the same in Ukraine. It's the same as they egg on ASEAN countries(Philippine, Vietnam, et alia) to prick/fight China as cannon fodders. The point is always to give China the image of a mass killing bully. Too bad too many idiots are actually falling for it.

I don't normally engage in back and forth arguments, but here I want to clarify one thing. I know, very well, of Taiwan people. I'm married to one, for 44 years now, a graduate of Taiwan National University and therefore have a large social circle consisting of well to do Taiwanese Americans. I know them WELL! Only a few of them are bona fide DPP, but ALL OF THEM are 'Murican worshippers and intellectual idiots. Yes, they actually BELIEVE 'Murican will fight alongside of them if and when war breaks out across the Strait. They don't lean to DPP, but they do lean to 'Muricans and FREEDOM and DEMOCRAZY and so-called LAW and false dreams. Like I said,they are idiots and wishy-washers. Their heads are in the sand, and been there since US Congress passed the Taiwan Act. Actually, I suspect they do know, but couldn't forsake their brainwashed wet dream.

I also know 'Murica is now selling weapons to Taiwan to fight street wars. But you miss the point from China's point of view. China has NO intention to occupy Taiwan. China has no intention to RULE Taiwan. China is only interested in blocking Taiwan from being used as the beachhead for nukes and other mass destruction weaponries to be launched short distance wise against Chinese coastal areas. So, DPP leaning Taiwan folks can hide in streets all they want with 'Murican weaponries, China would just sit and block ALL FOREIGN ACCESS to an from Taiwan. Let them live on their pineapples and papayas; let them hype their 'Murican love affairs as well 'Murican promises, while their livelihood deteriorate and heir resources dwindle. China has waited 75 years 'til today, it doesn't mind waiting another year or two for a total surrender when the idiots realizes the unsustainability of waiting to fight in the streets. I'm sure someone will cave, and it won't be China. 'Murica can hype Chinese brutality all it wants, but as long as China is doing the thing to prevent the split of Taiwan from Chinese sovereignty, such hypes would not stick on the global stage.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Sep 1 2023 21:31 utc | 53

Ahenobarbus @40: "The judge in his Georgia prosecution just made an unusual order: his entire trial next year is to be live streamed and televised."

What a fool that judge is. He clearly intends to try to publicly humiliate and denigrate Trump (talk about election interference!). The American public knows it, so that effort will backfire horribly.

It still amazes me that "liberals" still don't comprehend why none of the mountains of their own feces they fling at Trump never seem to stick. The fools still don't get why Trump can shrug off their attacks but they themselves end up losing credibility and moral authority from having launched those attacks.

This judge is going to make a fool of himself and will only succeed in further damaging the stature of the US legal system. The idiot is willing to shatter the prestige of the court to damage Trump. Damn, these people are so stupid...

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 21:40 utc | 54

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Sep 1 2023 21:31 utc | 54

Why can't China and/or the West figure out how to make the super-fancy chips that mainly only Taiwan does, do you know?

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 1 2023 21:41 utc | 55

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 21:40 utc | 55

Totally agree. They are as stupid in dealing with their internal enemies as with the external ones.

Trump will probably get a huge boost in polling numbers even if he is convicted.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 1 2023 21:45 utc | 56

Scorpion @56

China and the West can figure out how to make "fancy chips", and do so on a regular basis. It is just cheaper to buy production quantities from established manufacturers like TSMC.

Or did you forget companies are in business to make a profit? Who in their right mind invests $billions to reinvent the wheel when they can just buy them for a buck per unit?

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 21:50 utc | 57

Trump should tell all his supporters to vote for rfk if they keep him from running.

That would set the whole house on fire. Rnc, dnc, deepstaters, neocons... they would all be set chess.

Posted by: Orgel | Sep 1 2023 21:51 utc | 58

A superb article!

As comprehensive and concise on a big subject, as I have seen on MOA. Well done!

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Sep 1 2023 21:54 utc | 59

It still amazes me that "liberals" still don't comprehend why none of the mountains of their own feces they fling at Trump never seem to stick. The fools still don't get why Trump can shrug off their attacks but they themselves end up losing credibility and moral authority from having launched those attacks.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 21:40 utc | 55

############

The saving grace of these "Progressives" is that they lack humility (always have to gloat publicly about their plans) and often get out over their skis, as most of them are at best, midwits.

They really cannot help sabotaging themselves.

It is to everyone's benefit that their particular mental illnesses tend to manifest in people experiencing the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Woe be unto us all if emotionally controlled, cunning, and strategic people ever emerge with these delusions.

Televising the trial, as well as the inevitable wall-to-wall overreactions in the Deep State press guarantees Trump enough publicity to win the election 2x over. If the Deep State (Democrats and Republicans) weren't able to fix the elections so easily, he might be able to win.

Not that it would matter. Trump's greatest talent is talking loud, not confronting his enemies where and when it matters.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2023 21:55 utc | 60

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 21:40 utc | 55

This is theatre. The Judge is neither producer nor director.

If there is still rule of law and due process, the trial will be moved to Federal Court. But I think it won't partly because the US is now a post-constitutional 'Republic In Name Only' and mainly because this is gearing up to be one of the most exciting Seasons in the long-running "United States Reality TV Republic" series, a mini-series entitled Election 2024: "The Trials of a Lifetime". Trump, prior to becoming President in 2017 already the most successful single Reality TV star playing himself (ostensibly) has now landed the largest Reality TV gig in history. And if he wins the favor of the Unrevealed Cartel Titans of the Arena, he might even make it back to reprise his earlier role of Reality TV President at the Reality TV White House.

More winning! Ratings through the roof! Country transfixed! America already Great Again! What's not to like?

But:
that just won't happen if it goes into an obscure Federal Court somewhere. In which case the 'They' might have to put on a World War III or Plandemic 2.0 series instead - or combine them....

I vote for 'Trial of a Lifetime in Fulton County'. Imagine all those social media accounts cancelled when they mock the Prosecutor for being short, dumb, female, black and deluded! It could get so divisive they might not even have to mount the upcoming Civil War series scheduled for Summer 2024!!

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 1 2023 22:07 utc | 61

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2023 21:55 utc | 61

The blood soaked representatives of the oligarchs really love it when you refer to them as "progressives". That's how the sell nuclear war and economic austerity for the wage slaves.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 1 2023 22:08 utc | 62

Dan | Sep 1 2023 19:06 utc | 24
*** The CP has been waging asymmetrical war against the USA for more than 30 years. It's WAY past time that we accepted that reality and started fighting back.***

True, the Capitalist Plutocracy has indeed long been the prime enemy of the USA (plus most other countries) ... but it totally controls the US-imperialist Deep State, so from inside the USA what would best be done?

Posted by: Cynic | Sep 1 2023 22:14 utc | 63

The blood soaked representatives of the oligarchs really love it when you refer to them as "progressives". That's how the sell nuclear war and economic austerity for the wage slaves.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 1 2023 22:08 utc | 63

################

My dear friend, it would be advisable not to protest such trifles so dramatically, lest people suspect you of being an emotionally incontinent midwit with degenerate ideas.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2023 22:22 utc | 64

Dan | Sep 1 2023 19:06 utc | 24
*** The CP has been waging asymmetrical war against the USA for more than 30 years. It's WAY past time that we accepted that reality and started fighting back.***

True, the Capitalist Plutocracy has indeed long been the prime enemy of the USA (plus most other countries) ... but it totally controls the US-imperialist Deep State, so from inside the USA what would best be done?

Posted by: Cynic | Sep 1 2023 22:14 utc | 64

Wow, Dan. You better be careful talking about the capitalist plutocracy like that. You're liable to end up on a list of anticapitalist subversives. 😁

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 1 2023 22:23 utc | 65

My dear friend, it would be advisable not to protest such trifles so dramatically, lest people suspect you of being an emotionally incontinent midwit with degenerate ideas.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2023 22:22 utc | 65

No emotion in that comment at all, just patient advice.

Keep talking to the sky god, you senile old fool.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 1 2023 22:32 utc | 66

Over the last decade and a half, though, the mass media has switched to different messaging ("Get woke, go broke") that isn't resonating with the common folk, neither in America nor globally. For this and other reasons, the "Shining City on the Hill" is losing its shine.
Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 1 2023 20:48 utc | 49
--------------------------------------------------------------
I vote for 'Trial of a Lifetime in Fulton County'. Imagine all those social media accounts cancelled when they mock the Prosecutor for being short, dumb, female, black and deluded! It could get so divisive they might not even have to mount the upcoming Civil War series scheduled for Summer 2024!!
Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 1 2023 22:07 utc | 62
--------------------------------------------------------
Both posters are on the money. May you live in exciting times!

The drumbeating for the forthcoming 'War with China' will continue. All of this could end badly, unless the Dems implode over Biden and Ukraine.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 1 2023 22:35 utc | 67

Let us hope it doesn’t come to the inevitable war - unfortunately it is all but inevitable. As The Duran Alex’s repeat there seems no desire to have a reverse gear. To the last proxy fools it must be, paid for by magik dollars.

Of course China Russia and the SCO know all this and the fake diplomacy, but they play the Game to bring the rest of the world along.

Sanctions will not work on China as they are not working on Russia. The many brutal decades long sanctions haven’t destroyed Little Cuba or mighty Iran and Venezuela and many stops between.

The only ones who have suffered by sanctions are the civilians deprived of basics by the Imperial Collective Waste. And us the citizens of that Grand Delusion by being deprived of cheapish energy by the pipeline blower uppers and subjected to random economic policies.

Any all out direct military action outside of proxies is a certain violent death of the Empire and destruction of the environment and millions of innocents.

Either war or peace.
The Unipolar Empire is dead.

Long live the Multipolar World Order.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Sep 1 2023 22:44 utc | 68

Duncan Idaho | Sep 1 2023 17:04 utc | 1--

IMO, describing China as "dominant" is a very big mistake as China wishes to dominate nothing and has stated so on many occasions. China has 1.4 billion people, so it's quite natural that it would eventually have the largest economy. That it's also one of the most modern and advanced economies is due to policy and the fact that it didn't really begin to industrialize until the mid 1970s, 100 years after the USA and 200 after England. The USA's falling behind due to policy choices China had zero to do with--that the USA is becoming a Failed State is its own doing, not any other nation's. Behaving like a spoilt brat who just broke his favorite toy isn't going to cause other nations to sympathize. And given its many crimes, most nations are happy to see the USA finally get its comeuppance.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 1 2023 22:57 utc | 69

LuRenJia | Sep 1 2023 20:10 utc | 43--

Can't recall his name but one of Taiwan's richest men has declared for the presidency and publicly vowed not to allow Taiwan become another Ukraine. Initial analysis said he would likely split the vote and allow DPP to win again, but I'm skeptical and think with such a vow and his standing within Tiwanese society he could win. I'd appreciate your and oriental voices opinions on question.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 1 2023 23:10 utc | 70

To: Scorpion | Sep 1 2023 21:41 utc | 56

Why can't China and/or the West figure out how to make the super-fancy chips that mainly only Taiwan does, do you know?

--

Leaving out where China stands, (hey, for that I am here myself), but about the why:
Well, not sure they can't. Samsung is maybe not far behind (counting them to the West), but then yes they are very far
behind when it comes to mass production of the leading edge. And then it is not Taiwan, it is TSMC. Which OK is a kinda
government shop.
And then, yes, the West was way ahead and knew how to make those leading chips of yesteryear. Intel. But they lost it. Or
almost lost it. The next three years will show if they figure it out again. And finally, TSMC can not do it on it's own.
ASML from Amsterdam provides the EUV machines (with the optics from Zeiss, which are just as important as the rest). Which
only TSMC knew (and maybe still knows) how to use. So the problem is, each new generation of chips takes exponentially more
capital. And once your behind, they never come back. If you believe Moore's Law is dead, then the others should have a chance, as the leader slows down, yet cost might still go up for incremental gains. But if Moore's Law is kicking and alive,
there would have to come a total new technology from another corner or TSMC totally screws up (or a war) to loose that
leading position (the winner takes it all).

Now to memory, here Korea is absolutely killing it, with Micron hanging in. And China has one horse in the memory race.

Posted by: C | Sep 1 2023 23:31 utc | 71

@Scorpion, #56:

I don't really think TSMC is considered the only company to know how to produce 3nm chips. They are considered the best at it in terms of cost husbandry and lowest defect rates. I think they achieved that through learning from their setbacks while fabricating prototypes for their big customers such as Apple and now AI outfits. Their core team of engineers in the age range of 55-75 are really top EEs. These top performers are nearing or already past retirement age. I think the next crop of top Solid State engineers will be nurture and employed at solid state devices in China.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Sep 1 2023 23:42 utc | 72

@karlof1, #71:

The rich man you referred to is Terry Guo of Foxconn. The outfit that assemble Apple cellphones, among other fancy electronics-wares.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Sep 1 2023 23:51 utc | 73

When you get US American military training it often comes with a coop and complete loss of democracy. Chances are Taiwan will go back to a murderous Jiang Jieshi type dictatorship before this is all over. US advisors are not even trained to support democracy, their purpose is to support puppet governments.

Posted by: ATM | Sep 1 2023 23:51 utc | 74

Posted by: Dan | Sep 1 2023 19:06 utc | 24

This type of hominids, presumably of the so-called "conservative" variety, abounds in the USA. It may well be a "liberal" too; little difference in core issues. Still, this mentality is so prevalent in the Anglosphere and the west in general that it leaves little room for optimism.

If there is to be any improvement (including in the west), the Anglo-American empire must be defeated. One would hope that the western citizenry would contribute to this historic endeavour, but as the poster "Dan" reveals (a representative of the predominant mindset among said citizenry) it is better not to have such hopes.

Posted by: Constantine | Sep 1 2023 23:52 utc | 75

@The Archivist | Sep 1 2023 17:45 utc | 4

Its Bitcoin, baby.

Posted by: DjangoCat | Sep 1 2023 23:57 utc | 76

«"The US is determined to degrade the PRC’s military, economic, and international security and domestic social and political stability in all available dimensions. Concessions are tactical; attacks are strategic."»

It is a long term strategy that will be applied to Indian and Indonesia too in the future:

https://www.jstor.org/stable/40396396
"Opening and dividing China", The World Today, May 1992:
«Needless to say, not all these regions are like to have the same views on foreign policy questions. Coastal regions would be less willing to see relations with the United States deteriorate, or take a hard line with Honk Kong or Taiwan. Worries over strategies of "peaceful evolution" pursued by outsiders would be different if one thought of Islamic, Mongolian, or Taiwanese ideals. In sum, domestic reform in China is helping create several Chinas, with potentially different foreign policies. [...] As the Soviet empire collapses, it is time to ask far-reaching questions about the shape of the Chinese empire. Of course there are major differences between the two cases, but there are nevertheless increasing signs that as China continues its economic reforms and opens to the outside world, it will also run the risk of fragmenting.»

Posted by: Blissex | Sep 1 2023 23:59 utc | 77

To: LuRenJia | Sep 1 2023 20:03 utc | 41

All in all, a ruinous Taiwan is to amerikkkan's best interest if it can't keep it.

--

Yes, but...

If TSMC really stops delivering leading edge products to China (who knows if there are ways around this, among family;),
and TSMC doesn't get their act together in Arizona with what, American union workers, and Taiwan becomes Ukraina 2:
who would have a bigger problem? USA with Apple, NVidia, Qualcomm, AMD, Tesla all without any factory and no chips and no
products!
Or China not getting chips from Taiwan they would not get anyway? I am sure Huawei would get along quite nicely.
Only real winner would be Intel. So maybe US should first wait a little if they their chips act works out..

Posted by: C | Sep 2 2023 0:03 utc | 78

@karlof1, #71:

You also asked of my opinion on whether Guo is splitting Blue votes in the upcoming presidential election to allow DPP victory. I don't think China cares a bit about who will win, DPP or KMT. I think China is of the opinion that Taiwan's electioneering is totally manipulated by Empire's NGOs so that Empire's intended candidate will always win. The population at large in Taiwan allows that, or rather preferred that thinking that this makes them the 51st State of America.

Actually, Guo is the preferred candidate of most KMT party members. He was ousted by KMT leadership in favor of a guy name Hou because Guo may have a good chance of winning. So, if DPP wins, it's actually KMT splitting the Blue votes to allow DPP victory.

The guy Hou was the prosecutor of the suspect accused of trying to assassinate the DPP candidate Chen Shuibian back in 2004. The suspect was killed and Hou declared the dead guilty, ending investigations that was pursuing whether the assassination was a false flag! Most people thought the attempt on Chen was a false flag. The person who promoted Hou's candidacy is Chu, who lost to Tsai Yingwen last time, and he was a graduate of New York University, long known as a quiseling under the Empire's wing.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Sep 2 2023 0:13 utc | 79

@LuRenJia | Sep 1 2023 20:03 utc | 41

Most of people in Taiwan now lean to DPP's political stand- Taiwan independence from China.

Most Taiwanese probably don't want to reunite with the mainland -- yet -- but I doubt they actually want to declare formal independence. If they bought the DPP's platform, why did the party lose so badly in the most recent elections of 2022? Most Western media have probably not mentioned that the KMT won 14 of the mayors for the largest districts and Tsai Ingwen's party won only 5; in smaller districts, the KMT was even more dominant (76-35). I call that a crushing loss for DPP. This suggests that most Taiwanese don't want formal independence from mainland China.


@Oriental Voice | Sep 1 2023 21:31 utc | 54

So, DPP leaning Taiwan folks can hide in streets all they want with 'Murican weaponries, China would just sit and block ALL FOREIGN ACCESS to an from Taiwan. Let them live on their pineapples and papayas; let them hype their 'Murican love affairs as well 'Murican promises, while their livelihood deteriorate and heir resources dwindle.

That might work. Taiwan grows only 35% of its food, so a blockade of the island could have fast results. Nor would the US be able to break the blockade, as the Americans know they would lose; this was admitted in 2021 by General John Hyten, then the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. I think most Taiwanese can see though the DPP's ceaseless propaganda; that was why the party lost so badly in the most recent election.

Posted by: Cyril | Sep 2 2023 0:47 utc | 80

Scorpion @62: "Trump, prior to becoming President in 2017 already the most successful single Reality TV star playing himself (ostensibly) has now landed the largest Reality TV gig in history."

Very true, and I think you are right about how exciting things are going to get. I would just prefer to observe from a slightly greater distance... say Mars.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 2 2023 0:53 utc | 81

Acco Hengst @68: "May you live in exciting times!"

I do believe I vaguely remember when I was heading towards the light down the ol` Love Canal that I was handed a questionnaire by some glowing dude with wings, and I am sure one of the questions was "Exciting era or boring era?". Of course I checked the box for exciting. What can I say? I wasn't very experienced with the real world back then.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 2 2023 1:01 utc | 82

@78

The empire makes no secret of its doctrine of full spectrum dominance as shown by these articles from their think tanks. This particular British outfit, Chatham House, must be burning the midnight oil of late with the wave of coups overtaking the Sahel.

Posted by: Jun | Sep 2 2023 1:16 utc | 83

LoveDonbass @61: "The saving grace of these "Progressives" is that they lack humility (always have to gloat publicly about their plans)..."

Until you challenge them on those plans, at which point they try to go into gaslighting overdrive: "Nuh uh! That thing you say we said we are doing isn't a thing!" Think Critical Race Theory. It's like watching a toddler with chocolate frosting all over his face trying to say he didn't have anything to do with the cake being destroyed.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 2 2023 1:19 utc | 84

All this talk about advanced chips is good. But, do I really need a refrigerator, washer dryer and toaster with a microchip? It does seem that everyone went chip crazy and put it into ordinary items that worked much better without them. For instance, my 25 year old washer and dryer works a lot better than anything that's new. Any comments?

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Sep 2 2023 1:22 utc | 85

@ Immaculate deception | Sep 2 2023 1:22 utc | 86

Well, if your appliances offer complex settings, I guess you need the microchip. Toaster? pfeh. Microwave oven? maybe. But my fridge must have been built in the 1970s (and has a garish color scheme to match), obviously no chip, was built back in the days when planned obsolescence wasn’t yet a corporate article of faith, and it will probably outlive me. They can have it when they pry it out of my cold dead hands.

By the way, where’s our friend Antonym? Nearly 100 comments on a China thread without some merciless disparagement of the PRC from him? How strange.

Posted by: malenkov | Sep 2 2023 1:50 utc | 86

@Posted by: Cyril | Sep 2 2023 0:47 utc | 81,

Most Taiwanese probably don't want to reunite with the mainland -- yet -- but I doubt they actually want to declare formal independence. If they bought the DPP's platform, why did the party lose so badly in the most recent elections of 2022? Most Western media have probably not mentioned that the KMT won 14 of the mayors for the largest districts and Tsai Ingwen's party won only 5; in smaller districts, the KMT was even more dominant (76-35). I call that a crushing loss for DPP. This suggests that most Taiwanese don't want formal independence from mainland China.

Most Taiwanese now do not think they are Chinese but just Taiwanese. It was the reverse about 30 years ago when Lee regime started to remove Chinese elements from the grade school up. Two main reasons for this are (1) Most people who came from China in late 1940s passed away and (2) younger generation are educated to be Taiwan-centered, rather than as a part of Chinese heritage. Taiwan's education system becomes a mess under the influence of another Lee (Y.T.), who won Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1986. He went back to Taiwan in 1990s and led the "education reform" along with Lee regime. Both Lees are pro Taiwan independence. The majority of Taiwan people may want to keep the status quo. But the so-called status quo has been broken by DPP (Chen and Tsai) as well as amerikkka's behavior in the past decade. There is no going back. Unfortunately, the only way forward is reunion by force. China does not want to do that but DPP along with its amerikkka master keep working hard toward the end for conflict. KMT, in my opinion, is already HISTORY and just for theatrical usage. It is basically a gang of compradors. KMT has no central principles as a political organization and its leadership is full of political calculation for personal gains. Although the factions in DPP fight fiercely within the party, but they can unite very well against external political opponents. Can KMT win local elections, yes. Can KMT win another presidential election, NO. The Taiwan presidential election in 2024 may be the last one.

The election that you referred was basically local elections. In Taiwan, the resources are mostly controlled and distributed by the central government (the president). KMT won 14 of the local governments was because DPP was very bad and incompetent, not KMT is better. DPP is incapable of governing but very very good at elections, especially the presidential one and legislators of Legislator Yuan. So it is not to choose for the better but not the worse one.

IMHO, Taiwan started to consume the wealth it accumulated years ago. The relation across the Straight was OK under Ma's regime because Ma was "friendly" to the Mainland. China now started to demand fair trade with Taiwan and may stop its preferred treatment in trading for Taiwan. Without the annual trading surplus from China, Taiwan is totally screwed. (In 2021, Taiwan had about USD$200+B surplus from trading with China.)

Taiwan is an island so most people there don't have broad view and mind. probably naturally and/or ignorantly. And its lack of wisdom to know where it should stand will unfortunately result in its own ill fate.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Sep 2 2023 1:56 utc | 87

LoveDonbass #38, to define a true victory is a decisive military win. In the case of Russia it should mean what has been stated by leadership, the removal of the Zelensky-NATO syndicate from the Ukraine. A pyrrhic victory, in my estimation is to not defeat the enemy as Russian leadership stated and negotiate with the Zelensky-NATO syndicate a useless truce and call it a victory of 'sorts'. A fact, the longer the war is dragged out by all sides increase the risk of greater escalation. I would like the war to end sooner, rather than later. The argument that Russia will continue to have the upper hand in the Ukrainian war theater is nothing but a best guess or a wish based on astrology, the future is unknown, war is unforgiving.

Posted by: Bill Miner | Sep 2 2023 2:27 utc | 88

Lu Renjia @ 88:

It would seem that, from your comment, the Taiwanese voting public uses regional elections as a way of keeping the national govt on its toes, never allowing it to grow completely complacent. In my country (Australia), it is not unusual for state governments to be dominated by the party that is in opposition to the party governing at the national level.

Posted by: Jen | Sep 2 2023 2:40 utc | 89

Posted by: LuRenJia | Sep 2 2023 1:56 utc | 88

Thank you for such a clear post on the situation.

So, if China becomes more autotakic; and wilfully lessens its trade with Taiwan; the West will move in even more commercially. That leaves the OBVIOUS ISSUE of more US military streaming in ... missiles, etc.

What then could be China's protection against that? What if it promised full independence to Taiwan (after satisfactory Chinese autarky, if course) using independence and trade leverage as blackmail/bargaining chips for a bilateral non-aggression treaty, a demilitarised Taiwanese Constitution -- which would include kicking out the US for good. Obviously, if China no longer had any vested interest in Taiwan ownership (other than ideological/cultural/ historical), it has no need to ever attack or capture it. Funny, soooo like Russia to Ukraine.

Or else, it's the US proxy war playbook yet again.

Posted by: SCCC | Sep 2 2023 2:55 utc | 90

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 1 2023 23:10 utc | 71

That man, Guo, is still a Taiwanese, and you should always take his action with skepticism. China and the chinese people very well know that. Oriental Voice and LuRenJia has written very good and informative posts about the situation in Taiwan.

Posted by: Man | Sep 2 2023 2:56 utc | 91

Strategic Culture had a very good article on China, they were saying that China is making a mistake by continuing the border issues with India on one side which encourages it being in The Quad and by claiming the entire Sth China Sea on the other which pushes Vietnam and Philippines also into the US camp.

Being seen as the bully boy in SE Asia simply makes them the mirror image of the US, even US bases are now back in the Philippines and Biden is off to Vietnam for talks which will no doubt be about "containing" China. China could easily make all these issues go away, but it doesn't. Agree it seems both arrogant and foolish.

Posted by: Organic | Sep 2 2023 2:58 utc | 92

@ Immaculate deception | Sep 2 2023 1:22 utc | 86

the washer we had was un-fixable.. we got a huebsch without the chips based off a repair person saying they could fix this thing - for that very reason.. i'm with you..

Posted by: james | Sep 2 2023 3:18 utc | 93

@ malenkov | Sep 2 2023 1:50 utc | 87

good observations all around!

Posted by: james | Sep 2 2023 3:19 utc | 94

@ Oriental Voice & @C:

thanks for your replies about the chips in Taiwan etc. I asked because I listened to a clip of Vivek Ramaswamy, an unlikely but surprisingly refreshing Presidential candidate, who is proposing to back Taiwan aggressively against any Chinese incursion for the next 4 years or so, which he calls strategic clarity, until the US can manufacture that same level of quality chips Stateside after which they will return to what he calls 'strategic ambiguity' again, like now apparently.

My only takeaway from this strange logic was that Taiwan's chip-making capability seems vital to the US way of life somehow.

I have never been able to understand the West's involvement with Taiwan unless it is using it as thorn in the side of a perceived communist enemy or rival. Then I wondered if the chips were truly crucial somehow; after your answers, I doubt it.

All I know about island people, having spent more than half my life living on islands, is that they prefer to be proudly independent whilst also trading freely with all and sundry because of which they generally have ethnically diverse populations. Hopefully no matter what transpires they can maintain that sort of character - or whatever they prefer. I’ve always assumed that the general population wants to both be part of China whilst also being independent and autonomous, moreover without any sort of Big Brother control. But of course have no actual idea myself.

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 2 2023 3:28 utc | 95

@karlof1 | Sep 1 2023 23:10 utc | 71

Thanks for asking. I basically concurred what Oriental Voice commented (@Oriental Voice | Sep 2 2023 0:13 utc | 80). And I'd add a little to that.

1. Terry Guo is a well-known rich businessman in Taiwan. My impression is that he got a good chunk of his fortune by making Apple phones in China. He probably fully used the then-cheap-and-educated Chinese labor force and incentives from Chinese government, especially at the local and provincial levels to build his business empire around Apple phones. IMHO, he seems an opportunist and not trust-worthy. I won't take his words seriously. I don't recall he fulfills any of his political promises. In this Taiwan presidential election (2024), he looks like a spoiler to me to split rather than unite non-DPP votes. Interestingly, he came to the US a few times in the past year. The latest was a few weeks ago (maybe around July). Why did he come to US- to take his marching order?! In my opinion, Guo has no chance to win but good chance to assist Lai.

2. DPP's electoral base is traditionally about 33%, which is pretty solid no matter what. Namely, a watermelon with DPP label could win an election in Taiwan. /sarcastic So if non-DPP can't unite in a presidential election, DPP has a very good chance to take it.

Among the candidates on the table, Lai represents DPP. Hou is for KMT. Although Hou does not appear pro Taiwan independence, he is definitely not pro China. Ko was a doctor then became the mayor of Taipei City for two terms. Ko is also pro Taiwan independence too but not as strong as Lai. A lot of doctors in Taiwan are pro Taiwan independence. Whoever looks pro China very likely commits political suicide in Taiwan, especially in a presidential election nowadays.

There is a Chinese saying "It is better to the head of a chicken rather than the back of an ox." (寧為雞首,不為牛後) So it is unlikely the non-DPP three would unite against Lai. Frankly, Chinese who favor reunion by force prefer Lai because that increases the chances for it to occur.


2. Regarding Hou, I have one minor correction to Oriental Voice's comment. He was the principal police investigator for the 319-shooting-incident. He was the chief of Criminal Investigation Bureau (under National Police Agency) at the time. His handling of the investigation did look suspicious but the whole 319-shooting is a "mystery". Like I mentioned earlier, DPP is very very good at elections plus DPP has no shame or morality but to win elections. Chen promoted Hou to the chief of National Police Agency in 2006, 2 years after the 319-shooting incident.

3. The current KMT chair Chu served two terms of county executives in Tao Yuan County first then New Taipei City (so 4 terms total). When he was the county executive of New Taipei City, he had Hou as his deputy. Hou became county executive of New Taipei City after Chu. During the Taiwan presidential election in 2016, Hong was the "original" KMT candidate after she won the primary. However, she has no amerikkkan connection (unlike Chu got his PhD from New York Univ.) and was unwilling to come to the amerikkka after becoming KMT candidate. Chu was also the KMT chair at the time and managed to replace Hong with himself as KMT presidential candidate. I strongly suspect he was under amerikkkan instructions for that. However, no one in Taiwan accuses him as an amerikkkan agent.

4. Lai came to the amerikkka earlier in August though he appeared very low-key. However, his trip is to show his LOYALTY to his amerikkka master and it seems to me that he passed the "test". That might be why Guo "decided" to "join" the race. After Lee's regime, all potential presidential candidates would come to the amerikkka for "interview", including Chen, Ma, Tsai, and Lai. Hong didn't want to come so she was forced out.

5. After Lee, KMT gradually becomes DPP-light. Plus its traditional comprador nature, KMT becomes less and less influential. All Taiwan politicians on the table are amerikkkan's servants. Whoever has any thought different from amerikkkan master's will not advance much and probably be out for whatever reason. Taiwan would like to be amerikkkan's 51st state but it is actually a colony that amerikkka keeps to poke China.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Sep 2 2023 3:36 utc | 96

The argument that Russia will continue to have the upper hand in the Ukrainian war theater is nothing but a best guess or a wish based on astrology, the future is unknown, war is unforgiving.

Posted by: Bill Miner | Sep 2 2023 2:27 utc | 89

I think you're wrong. They are backed by the most productive country in the history of the world and they don't even need their help at this point. Russia will continue to have the upper hand, as will China.

Us imperialism is a reality show with nukes.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 2 2023 3:48 utc | 97

At some point, the West will be so beaten down, aided by the elites driving their nations into cognitively dissonant depression, they will capitulate and happily join the new multipolar order managed via the UN, WHO, WTO, IMF et alia. They just have to get those pesky republican-conservative-sovereigntist-freedom-loving types to finally abandon their quaint old ways and rather embrace confucian-style collectivism. It will happen one way or another.

First though, as with most historic adjustments, aka revolutions, several million will die, and ten times that number suffer greatly. Otherwise they won't be properly motivated. So it has always been, so it will be.

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 1 2023 19:39 utc | 36

EXACTLY this. The treatment of conservative-sovereigntist-freedom-loving types inside the RF, as well as the immigration policy of the RF being little different from that of the EU or US, and the coverup of hundreds of thousands of deaths in the RF from the Sputnik-V proves this is the desired endpoint. One network of technocrats will rule us all. The strife that is not kayfabe is just gangsters fighting over who gets to sit at the high table.

Posted by: Drifter | Sep 2 2023 3:49 utc | 98

James, malenkov. Thank you for your response. Yes, I had experience with new products. Lasted a year. My old washer and dryer can actually be fixed if something breaks. As far as any settings, what could you possibly need any settings that weren't on the old stuff? Delicates, heavy, and everything in between. And I don't need a refrigerator to tell me when I need milk or something else.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Sep 2 2023 3:55 utc | 99

@Jen | Sep 2 2023 2:40 utc | 90

I am not familiar with Australia's political structure. But in Taiwan, the central government has almost all the resources, especially tax revenues. The Administrative Yuan (under the president) is responsible for allocating resources for local governments. Under DPP regimes (Chen and Tsai), the local governments that DPP controls get preferred treatment outright. Even though KMT controls 14 local governments as Cyril (@Sep 2 2023 0:47 utc | 81) noted, it does not matter much when it comes to $$$ allocation. And not all KMT county executives/city mayors act altogether. Some of them have their own political calculation as well.

Also, DPP currently has control of the central legislative branch, which also makes things eary for DPP and hard for others. As a reminder, DPP has no shame or morality so they will do whatever they want to further their interests. The press in Taiwan is much under DPP control/influence now so don't count on that.

The corruption by DPP in Taiwan is rampant, from top to bottom. (Note I don't know KMT is clean or not.)

Posted by: LuRenJia | Sep 2 2023 3:55 utc | 100

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