Re: NATO troops capitulating
In the link posted above by Surferket, the ( American) journalist mentions increased examples of company sized surrenders.
Watch this metric carefully – if we start seeing many battalion and even brigade sized surrenders, then perhaps the oft predicted collapse of NATO‘s military in The Ukraine might be at hand.
Note – the war party wants to keep this conflict on simmer until 2025. because that’s when those sanctions will finally kick in (sic). Therefore, it can be expected that NATO will through few hundred thousands Mercs into the fight. TBD

Posted by: Exile | Sep 30 2023 10:20 utc | 303

While it would be great to see mass surrenders, are troops on either size deployed in more than company strength? My impression was that drones and sigint made it very hard for either side to concentrate troops without attracting unpleasant bits of metal.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Sep 30 2023 10:32 utc | 305

Re: deployed more than company strength ?
No idea – above my pay grade. Perhaps a fellow barfly knows this topic in depth.

Posted by: Exile | Sep 30 2023 10:45 utc | 307

To: Sam | Sep 29 2023 13:35 utc | 31
It was Russia who started this offense not called war. So what is this about “Ukraine not being successful”? Should this not be “Russia has completely failed her objective due to treachery, confusion and moronic leadership full of failures?
—
Hi Uncle Samuel!
It is Ukraine and their masters who do not want to continue without regaining the lost lands.
Meanwhile Russia destroyed three armies, let Nato and the western economies waste hundreds of billions, while Russia is upgrading their own army, economy and international status.
Could it be that you are projecting your own government’s failures onto somebody else?

Posted by: C | Sep 30 2023 10:49 utc | 309

Posted by: Exile | Sep 30 2023 10:20 utc | 153
Since the beginning of the war, there are accounts from AFU where the way attacks are setup is groups are sent to attack in some direction. The groups do not communicate with each other. The commander just tells the group “your task is to attack in this direction / this route”.
During the Lyman battle the RU defenders in the flank of Lyman said they would periodically see a new group of AFU appear in the exact same location where the old one appeared and was defeated. This seems to be the standard modus operandi. This was only changed during Nato’s attempt of a large tank Blitzkrieg attack in the Orekhov front this summer.
These sort of groups/cannon fodder are responsible for 90 % of AFU war effort, and a major part of who surrenders are them. They are miniature attacks suffering miniature collapses. The main problem is how do you survive the cross-fire from Azov banderites from the rear and the artillery coming from the front. The Azov most likely listens to the same frequency that is being used.
Also another account (one of the captured soldiers) talked about how a Zelensky’s presidential decree has ordered anyone refusing to participate in combat operation can be immediately shot as a traitor.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2023 10:58 utc | 311

Exile @ 155
Pay grade ?
Think about it…
If Vladimir Putin were American he’d be helicoptering in suitcases of money to blogs like this, and we’d all be paid per comment. And living in clover.
What that tells me im not quite sure, but its definatly a ‘thing’

Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 30 2023 11:03 utc | 313

From the desk of Andrei Martynov..
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com
I disagree with otherwise brilliantly eloquent George Galloway, Western public will not react in any way to what have happened last weekend in Ottawa. It is pure statistics, the sample size–Allies lost fewer KIAs combined in WW II than Leningrad lost civilians and military during the Siege. It is just the matter of quantitative impact which is in the foundation of historic memory. Modern Western establishment doesn’t have any, together with morality. No Canadian, American or British suffered slavery, torture, inhumane treatment and death in numbers which ensure proper societal reaction to an absolute evil which Nazism represents. Some voices of consciousness from the West are very few. But then again, in the US military history of WW II has been written by defeated German generals and SS with Abwehr officers. Make your own conclusions this Friday evening.
In consequence….. NATO leaders will be mystified at Russia’s determination to have it’s way…. on the battlefield…. in “negociations”… no matter how long it takes….
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 30 2023 11:21 utc | 315

Jello Biafra 1 : Dianne Feinstein 0

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Sep 30 2023 12:04 utc | 317

154 – That is also my impression. Even in WW2, the battlefield could be surprisingly “empty” compared to past centuries, as collecting large numbers of troops together could invite artillery barrages from the enemy. Drones etc. will only have encouraged the trend to small unit sizes. The occasional captured film from helmet cameras suggests units of no more than platoon size, or even just squad size.

Posted by: Waldorf | Sep 30 2023 12:20 utc | 319

@141
‘in the vicinity of the target’
That says all.
As I have already posted you must be in the vicinity of the target and/or have a powerful enough transmitter and you must be in LoS.
Can Russia be near enough to the target that is, supposedly, by the claim, at least the part of domestic water of Romania in the Black Sea and be there continuously as claimed?

Posted by: Mario | Sep 30 2023 12:20 utc | 321

@ 159
There was a time when most Canadians knew nothing about the abuse and deaths in residential schools for First Nations children, or about widespread sexual abuse by Catholic priests and nuns. They can be taught. Those who excel at dis-info sometimes use the power for the reverse when motivated to do so.
Here’s a sample. CBC’s The National explains that thousands of Nazis got in the country after WWII because officials were so focused on bringing in anti-communists.
https://youtu.be/Ucm8cSoCGXw

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Sep 30 2023 12:31 utc | 323

Posted by: Milites | Sep 29 2023 19:35 utc | 92
Your contention about US military supremacy over the USSR doesn’t seem to match the generally accepted numbers on nuclear warheads, assuming that’s what it generally boiled down to during the Cold War Mk1.
The USSR eclipsed the US in number of fielded warheads in the late 1970’s, and that didn’t change until post 1991.
Meanwhile, the US stockpile peaked in the mid to late 1960’s.

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Sep 30 2023 13:41 utc | 325

154 – That is also my impression. Even in WW2, the battlefield could be surprisingly “empty” compared to past centuries, as collecting large numbers of troops together could invite artillery barrages from the enemy. Drones etc. will only have encouraged the trend to small unit sizes. The occasional captured film from helmet cameras suggests units of no more than platoon size, or even just squad size.
Posted by: Waldorf | Sep 30 2023 12:20 utc | 16

Thanks for the insight. LikelyTrue

Posted by: Exile | Sep 30 2023 13:43 utc | 327

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 29 2023 19:38 utc | 93
Apologies for bring late to the party. DD Geopolitics on Telegram had an interesting piece on 29th August 2023, which made reference to a study done by the Oakland Institute (Feb 2023) into agricultural land ownership.
The top 10 all seem to be shell companies or subsidiaries. Luxembourg, Cyprus, US, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Ukraine were listed as the countries of operations for all the top 10.
Not too sure about the Chernozem or DU.
Rgds

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Sep 30 2023 13:54 utc | 329

Ukraine continues use of “Chemical weapons”:
https://tass.com/defense/1682723
Brian Berletic had Mark Slevboda on for over 2 hours.
Much was already known and discussed here, but Mark did point out quite a few things tactic-wise that I had not heard elsewhere. He made a “Crimean” prediction & was overall of the opinion we would see more usage of Chem weapons, possibly even Bio, and considers possible lengthy war .
Anyways as a “pick up” of military positions not reported, a good glean.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pK4SZ5IzeRE

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 30 2023 14:09 utc | 331

Scorpion at 93.
Further to previous. Said report link.
Remove spaces in w’s.
https://w w w.oaklandinstitute.org/new-report-take-over-ukrainian-agricultural-land

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Sep 30 2023 14:14 utc | 333

“Ms. Marina Miron better update her resume. Telling the truth like that is a big no-no in the West.
Posted by: Botched_Lobotomy | Sep 29 2023 11:07 utc | 7”
In real world, there is no such thing like an independent writer in the NYT.
Her mission has changed. The purpose of “reported facts” is now to slowly make the readers think by themselves that the continuation of war, as it is, in not worthwhile. This is the first of two stages.
Next stage, when the readers will be convinced it’s better to negociate with Russia, they will applause the wisdom of the government when it will announce negociations, instead of seeing they were deluded from the beginning.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Sep 30 2023 14:23 utc | 335

By the way, the BBC too has started to tell the truth about the state of the fights.
One must remenber that that the Brisitsh were more enraged at Russia than the USA (where there was some smarter POV).
Therefore, here was the ultimate cue that the West PTB has decided to modify its war plan. We are authorized to hope this is not toward escalating.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Sep 30 2023 14:43 utc | 337

Therefore, here was the ultimate cue that the West PTB has decided to modify its war plan. We are authorized to hope this is not toward escalating.
Posted by: Parisian Guy | Sep 30 2023 14:43 utc | 170
As near as I can tell out here in TV-land, the only escalation we are still capable of (aside from Gottendamerung, Armageddon, or the like) is rhetorical, so that is what I expect going forward. The coming election has the potential to be a corker, so things may change after that. Meanwhile the bloviating will continue until morale improves.
I expect an attempt at a crackdown here, not overseas, Ukraine 2.0 or something like that, but I am nobody.
Thank you for your comments.

Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 30 2023 15:01 utc | 339

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 30 2023 7:55 utc | 145
Thanks Johan. I know I was rather stating the obvious.

Posted by: Robert Hamilton Camp | Sep 30 2023 15:51 utc | 341

Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Sep 30 2023 13:41 utc | 164
I was referring to the conventional forces, but the US nuclear force also benefited hugely from the technological surge in the late 70’s-80’s. The Russians had more missiles with bigger yields but nothing to match the CEP’s of the latest US models, especially A/GLCMS, and the Pershing II’s which terrified them, e.g. the Able Archer incident.
Posted by: Waldorf | Sep 30 2023 12:20 utc | 161
Drones have not only forced units to disperse into smaller and smaller units, they have rewritten those small unit tactics, denying the infiltration tactics they normally would adopt. Concealment is now next to impossible, if under surveillance, thereby significantly reducing the opportunity to execute the third part of the four stage infantry assault (find, fix, flank and destroy). Drones have also significantly increased the effectiveness of the organic support/heavy weapons used by battalion/company (AGL’s and mortars), further reducing the options for the attacker. This state of affairs will not remain in stasis, with new technologies, or leveraging existing ones, challenging the new status-quo (it almost always does) and rebalancing the attacker/defender equation, but not before the SMO has largely been played out.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 30 2023 16:45 utc | 343

There was a time when most Canadians knew nothing about the abuse and deaths in residential schools for First Nations children
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Sep 30 2023 12:31 utc | 163
Today’s fake news is tomorrow’s fake history. Twas ever thus I guess

Posted by: TheNorthernChef | Sep 30 2023 20:38 utc | 345

Milites 150
The reason why business families get rid of their more ethical ( in their minds stupid ) family members is that whoever has a political instinct will also apply that psychopathic trait to their own family members. Internal competition is as annoying as external competition.
These victims of psychopathic business families have zero understanding of ethics or law. How could they have, coming from psychopathic business families? But they do understand that the world outside the family business is a much kinder world than their own family world.
Politics kind? Yes, all you have to do to survive is to stay inside the dumbed down Manichean parameters of your political Party, Mammon is right, Socialism is wrong. Or whatever tripe they can easily not forget.
Relative to ruthless family infighting, politics is an easy game. Look at the family politics of the Saudi royals, or even our own.

Posted by: Giyane | Oct 1 2023 4:45 utc | 347

e.g. the Able Archer incident.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 30 2023 16:45 utc | 172
It doesn’t take any American military superiority to explain this event.
This is largely because it was too close to a real attack.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 30 2023 8:52 utc | 149
Not because they are particularly stupid, but because people are stupid in general.
Of course, there is only little correlation and almost no causation between their status and their competence – as in everything else, such as business, finance and bureaucratic hierarchies within the private or public sector.
Posted by: Giyane | Oct 1 2023 4:45 utc | 174
It is interesting to note that they merely have the fervour to plunder, and the luck to fight internally, while still lacking any ability to make any serious or not-so-serious business decisions.
In fact, people’s deliberate and effortful decisions are always worse than making no decisions at all or making random decisions.

Posted by: Colin | Oct 2 2023 1:17 utc | 349