Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

The currently "Most Popular" piece at the National Interest website has a somewhat intriguing title:

The Source of Russian Brutality
Russia’s military operates on a Soviet, totalizing view of war that ignores distinctions between soldiers and civilians.

That is of course news to me as well as to the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Right which is counting civilian casualties.

From 24 February 2022, which marked the start of the large-scale armed attack by the Russian Federation, to 24 September 2023, OHCHR recorded 27,449 civilian casualties in the country: 9,701 killed and 17,748 injured.

Meanwhile the military casualties in the war exceed several 100,000nds. Compared to any other modern war the ratio of civilian casualties to military casualties is thus extremely low. How is that demonstrating 'Russian brutality'?

So lets see what the author, one Ivan Arreguin-Toft, is alluding to:

One need not be an expert on international law to understand how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March of 2022 has violated the laws’ core principles. The Kremlin’s pretexts, the alleged violation of Russia’s “sphere of influence,” cited by, for example, international relations scholar John Mearsheimer, remain inadequate to justify the invasion of an internationally recognized sovereign state.

Russia's reason for the war is the threatened entering of its neighbor country Ukraine into an aggressive NATO.  The Secretary General of NATO recently said so. That may(!) be "inadequate" to justify a war. But what about a war over fake WMD claims in a country on the other side of the planet? Has any U.S. reason for waging wars ever been "adequate"?

On top of that, in its prosecution of an illegitimate war, Russia continues to practice war crimes—systematically and deliberately attacking noncombatants, including medical personnel and facilities. We may continue to debate whether allowing Russia to reclaim the USSR’s sphere of influence is acceptable as a tradeoff to prevent a global conflict. Still, there can be no question that Russia’s continual rape, torture, and murder of noncombatants is illegal and damages Russia’s reputation on the world stage. 

The question, then, is, what explains Russia’s behavior?

Those are strong claims. Strong claims require strong evidence. But the link under "continual rape, torture, and murder" does not go to any evidence. The link instead goes to an overview of the Geneva Convention. In fact – the whole piece does not contain ANY evidence of 'Russian brutality'. ZERO! NONE!

So without presenting any factual evidence, statistic or even anecdote the author simply claims that Russia's behavior is somehow different from others.

He is then off to find something that would explain his farcical claim.

Cont. reading: ‘The Source Of Russian Brutality’ As Proven By Fiction

The New York Times reporting on Ukraine seems inconsistent. It was all about gains and going forward:

• A Brutal Path Forward, Village by Village – New York Times, September 2, 2023
• Ukraine Has Gained Ground But It Has Much Further To Go– New York Times, September 20, 2023
• Another Step for Ukraine: Armored Vehicles Breach Some Russian Defenses – New York Times, September 22, 2023

But a week after the above a different headline appeared:

• Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One. – New York Times, September 29, 2023

That headline is contradicted by the content of the piece.

As Antiwar summarizes:

Russian forces have gained more territory in Ukraine this year than the Ukrainian side despite the Ukrainian counteroffensive that was launched in June, The New York Times reported on Thursday.

The report noted that despite nine months of heavy fighting in Ukraine, only about 500 square miles of territory have changed hands this year. Russia has gained 331 square miles while Ukraine has gained 143, a difference of 188, which amounts to Russia’s net gain in territory so far this year.

Contradicting its headline the NYT graphics department admits as much.

Cont. reading: After Pushing Gains By Ukraine NYT Notes Its Losses

News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) …

The U.S. fears that China's growth will lead to a competition between the countries over hegemony on earth.

But China rejects hegemony. No only the one the U.S. is obviously trying to achieve but, more general, also for itself.

Yesterday the Global Times editorial pointed to a new guideline paper issued by China's State Council:

On September 26, China's State Council Information Office released a white paper titled "A Global Community of Shared Future: China's Proposals and Actions." Against the backdrop of the 10th anniversary of President Xi Jinping's proposal of building a global community of shared future, China has introduced the theoretical base, practice and development of a global community of shared future, and points the way toward a better future for the world. Anyone, be they are developing countries seeking to learn from China or individuals from Western countries who are interested in gaining a deeper understanding of China, will find inspiration in it as long as they approach it without biased views.
…
Human society is now facing a "life-or-death choice:" whether to enter into a vicious cycle of continuous confrontation and division or to seek a path of cooperation and win-win, ultimately allowing more than 7 billion people to have a better life. The whole world is searching for answers. This also confirms the highly prescient and forward-looking nature of the concept of a global community of shared future.
…
Today's world has become a community of shared future, with countries riding together on a ship of shared fate. A small boat cannot withstand the wind and waves, only a giant vessel can withstand the stormy seas. No matter how powerful a country may be, it cannot dominate the world alone and must engage in global cooperation.

As the white paper says, "This is an integrated world. Those who turn their back on it will have no place in it." In such a world, the true power that transcends time is contained in the silent and subtle ideas, just like the practical greatness demonstrated by the concept of global community of shared future.

The paper is available here.

It is 22,000 words long but quite readable. It is a recipe for a just and equalitarian world that will peacefully develop for everyone while allowing for a diversity of cultures and ideologies. It is thus building on China's decade old concept of a Community of Common Destiny for Mankind.

The most interesting part is probably this paragraph:

There is no iron law that dictates that a rising power will inevitably seek hegemony. This assumption represents typical hegemonic thinking and is grounded in memories of catastrophic wars between hegemonic powers in the past. China has never accepted that once a country becomes strong enough, it will invariably seek hegemony. China understands the lesson of history – that hegemony preludes decline. We pursue development and revitalization through our own efforts, rather than invasion or expansion. And everything we do is for the purpose of providing a better life for our people, all the while creating more development opportunities for the entire world, not in order to supersede or subjugate others.

Other strategic statements by China, like the one issued in 2013 that laid the ground for its Belt and Road program, had been dismissed when they were issued. But the record shows that China acts on such programs exactly as its papers promise to do. It profits from doing so.

Is its thesis in this new paper, that hegemony preludes decline, valid?

Should we therefore trust its claims that it rejects hegemony, not only of others but also for itself?

As a sign of the turning narrative of the war in Ukraine we find a new New York Times piece about 'disinformation' that is not about Russia but about lies from Ukraine.

Andrew E. Kramer, the NYT correspondent in Kiev, opens with an anecdote from the first weeks of the war:

Six weeks after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Ukraine sank the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, dealing a serious blow to the enemy navy, and, a Ukrainian official said, killing the ship’s captain.

“We do not mourn,” an adviser to the interior minister at the time, Anton Gerashchenko, said.

The only problem was that the captain — or somebody who resembled him — later appeared in a video of survivors released by the Russian Navy. He had escaped his sinking ship, the Moskva, the video seemed to indicate.

Then comes a paragraph that could fit both countries but the following one it is again related to disinformation from Ukraine:

What is clear is that misdirection, disinformation and propaganda are weapons regularly deployed in Russia’s war in Ukraine to buoy spirits at home, demoralize the enemy or lead opponents into a trap. And it is often hard to know when reports are false or why they may have been disseminated.

Now, Ukraine and Russia are offering dueling narratives over whether a more senior Russian naval officer, the commanding admiral of the Black Sea Fleet, is alive or dead.

Well, in this interview Adm. Viktor Sokolov looks quite alive.

Then comes an astonishing admission:

Cont. reading: Mainstream Media Admit – Ukraine’s Propaganda Is Full Of Lies

Seymour Hersh just published a new piece about the bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines.

When the pipelines were blown up on September 27 2022 I had asked:

Whodunnit? – Facts Related to The Sabotage Attack On The Nord Stream Pipelines

I had collected the various known facts around the incident and they in sum suggested that it had been the U.S. of A.

Seymour Hersh put the same question to some of his intelligence contacts. He was given the same answer.

He now reports on further facts and final motives to trigger the incident.

A YEAR OF LYING ABOUT NORD STREAM
The Biden administration has acknowledged neither its responsibility for the pipeline bombing nor the purpose of the sabotage
(archived version)

At the core of Hersh's report is this:

Cont. reading: Hersh Reveals U.S. Motive For Destruction Of Nord Stream Pipelines

Propaganda only works so long.

Ukraine’s Military Claims to Have Killed the Head of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet – New York Times

Ukraine’s military asserted on Monday that it had killed the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in a missile attack last week, which, if confirmed, would make the strike among the most damaging for the Russian Navy since the sinking of the fleet’s flagship last year.

There was no immediate comment from Moscow’s Defense Ministry on the status of its fleet commander, Adm. Viktor Sokolov, who is one of the most senior figures in the Russian Navy. Ukraine’s claim could not be independently verified.

Ukraine’s special operations forces on Friday said they had struck a headquarters of the Russian fleet in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, a storied port that is now under regular bombardment from Ukraine’s long-range missiles and exploding drones. Fleet officers were holding a meeting there at the time, the Ukrainian military said.

Russian sources say that no one was in the very exposed building when the Ukrainian missiles hit. The real headquarter is underground in an unknown place.

Today there was an expanded Board meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry in Moscow (machine translation):

Cont. reading: Ukrainian Whoppers

Certain trends on the Ukrainian battle field can be seen in the daily reports the Russian military puts outs.

When the Ukrainian president Zelensky visited Washington he was criticized for his failing military strategy:

Ukraine will retake the fiercely contested eastern city of Bakhmut from Russia by the end of the year, President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted during his visit to Washington, an assertion that shows the gulf between Kyiv and American war planners who believe that Ukraine should be focusing more on the south.
…
U.S. intelligence and military officials have long questioned why Ukraine has fought so hard in Bakhmut, the scene of one of the bloodiest battles of the war. In March, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said the city was “more of a symbolic value than it is strategic and operational value.”

But Mr. Zelensky has been intent on trying to retake lost territory, and Ukraine has committed large numbers of troops and weapons to retaking Bakhmut and defending the surrounding Donbas region.

Some American officials say the fight in Bakhmut has become something of an obsession for Mr. Zelensky and his military leaders. The Ukrainians’ relentless focus on the city led them to believe that a possible victory was just around the corner, long after American officials had counseled them to move on to other targets because victory for either side would be pyrrhic.

I somewhat agree with U.S. officials on Bakhmut. It no longer has any strategic value for the Ukraine and its army is losing many soldiers and equipment in its continuing attacks there. In fact it is currently losing many more around Bakhmut than it is losing in its southern attack towards the Sea of Azov.

Today's report by the Russian Ministry of Defense lists 445 Ukrainian casualties in the Donetzk direction, mostly around Bakhmut, and only 100 casualties on the Zaporozhye front in the south. Yesterday's report had 305 versus 35. Last week's summary listed 1,455 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded around Bakhmut and 515 in the southern direction. There was no discernible progress in either direction.

Another trend noticeable in the daily reports is an increasing Ukrainian lack of armored vehicles.

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: Battlefield Reports Show Lack Of Armor And Certain Munitions

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

• September 18 – Ukraine SitRep: Weird Claims, High Losses
• September 19 – New York Times Acknowledges Ukrainian Origin Of Deadly Strike
• September 22 – Ukraine SitRep: The War By Numbers Of Humans
  Related:
  – Ukraine, before and after. – Scott Ritter / The Floutist
  – The West’s Sacrificial Lamb to NATO Expansion – Gordon Hahn
  – Living conditions in Ukraine are resembling a new slavery, a triumph of Western 'democracy' in the 21st century – Al Mayadeen

  – Jeffrey Sachs: NATO Expansion & Ukraine’s Destruction – Consortium News
  – This War Wasn't Just Provoked — It Was Provoked Deliberately – Caitlin Johnstone
  – The US is de-industrializing Europe. Next on the agenda, to destroy European agriculture – Gilbert Doctorow

  – The History of Fascism in Ukraine Part I: The Origins of the OUN 1917-1941 Part II, Part III – Internationalist 360
  – Zelenskyy joins Canadian Parliament’s ovation to 98-year-old veteran who fought with Nazis – Forward

Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski – 0:23 UTC · Sep 24, 2023

These are photos of SS Galicia Division veteran who was given standing ovation by Canadian parliament, prime-minister of Canada and president of Ukraine. He published these photos of himself in this division during training in Germany. He is standing in the middle in 1st photo, second on the left in 2nd photo & without helmet near machine gun in 3d photo.

• September 21 – How Will The Biden Administration Cope With Its Loss In Ukraine?
  Related:
  – Spinning the Press on Hunter Biden – RealClearInvestigations
  – If the Facts Come Out, it Could Spell the End for Joe Biden – Consortium News
  – Anxiety ripples through the Democratic Party over Biden – Washington Post
  – Post-ABC poll: Biden faces criticism on economy, immigration and age – Washington Post
    The Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, …

• September 23 – Egyptians Beef Eaters Paid A Special Tax – Money Used To Bribe U.S. Senator Menendez
  Related:
  – Gold Bullion and Halal Meat: Inside the Menendez Investigation – New York Times
  – Menendez corruption charges complicate tense ties with Egypt – Washington Post

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-224

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Yesterday one of the crooks and grifter who are leading the U.S. got indicted:

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) was indicted Friday on allegations that he and his wife accepted bribes from a group of New Jersey businessmen on behalf of interests in Egypt, totaling over $600,000.

Prosecutors allege the senator and his wife accepted cash, gold bars and a luxury car in return for assisting the businessmen. The FBI found nearly $500,000 in cash and more than $100,000 in gold at Menendez’s home in a raid last year, allegedly payment for the bribes.

The senator stepped down from his seat as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee late Friday.

Some additional details:

Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey and his wife have been indicted by a federal grand jury, according to court filings unsealed Friday, with prosecutors alleging the couple accepted lavish bribes in exchange for official acts.
…
Menendez, 69, and his wife face one count of conspiracy to commit bribery, conspiracy to commit honest services fraud and conspiracy to commit extortion under color of official right. The three New Jersey associates, identified as Wael Hana, Jose Uribe and Fred Daibes, are also named as co-defendants and face two counts. Menendez and his co-defendants are expected to appear in federal court in Manhattan on Wednesday morning.

Nadine Menendez and Hana were friends for several years before she began dating Menendez, according to the filing. A court-authorized search of Hana's cellphone in November 2019 revealed "thousands" of text messages between him and Nadine Menendez, which prosecutors said were deleted from her phone. Daibes, a longtime fundraiser for Menendez, was charged by the Justice Department in 2018 with obtaining loans under false pretenses from the New Jersey bank he founded, the indictment said.

Menendez vehemently denied the charges, but a chorus of New Jersey Democrats began urging him to step down later Friday. Gov. Phil Murphy said the allegations are "so serious that they compromise the ability of Senator Menendez to effectively represent the people of our state," calling for his "immediate resignation."

A copy of the indictment is here. The case looks solid.

Menendez was the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee. A previous chairman of the committee, and also a crook and grifter, still sits in the White House.

Cont. reading: Egyptians Beef Eaters Paid A Special Tax – Money Used To Bribe U.S. Senator Menendez

When I was much younger and still lived in my hometown I was training two local female volleyball teams.

There was also a local team for men with disabilities. We had some friendly matches. Most of the men, then in their 50s to 60s, had had amputations. Some due to accidents but most due to the second world war. But even with only one leg or one arm they beat my teenage girl teams without much problems.

After such matches I often sat down with the men and talked about the war and the consequences it had for them. They had all done well and were living more or less normal lives. But many more who had been wounded like them had killed themselves or died young due to the long term consequences of their wounds.

The numbers further down remind me of those men.

Yves Smith looks at Ukraine's future:

The Coming Ukraine Collapse and the “Rebuilding” Headfake

Its economic prospects are terrible and all the talk about 'rebuilding' it is mostly nonsense:

Now after that introduction, to the main event of the exceedingly poor economic prospects for what will be left of Ukraine… which is not even known. It’s pretty remarkable to see chipper talk in the West of rebuilding Ukraine, since it presupposes there will be a meaningful Ukraine left. It’s reminiscent of children discussing how much of an ailing parent’s wealth they expect to carve up when the process of dying could well wipe out the remaining assets.

When the war is over Ukraine will be a bankrupt and largely empty country. Yves quotes Michael Vlahos who mentions a piece by the intel-connected Jamestown Foundation about Ukraine's population numbers.

I searched for and found it:

Ukraine’s Manpower Requirements Reaching a Critical Threshold

The piece was published two months ago and its numbers are grueling. Here are some snippets:

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: The War By Numbers Of Humans

While this piece will touch on the war in Ukraine it is more about the U.S., and the Biden administration, and how they will cope with their  defeat in their war on Russia. Please keep that in mind when commentating.

Washington's moment of recognizing the defeat in Ukraine, and its consequences, has yet to arrive.

In his latest piece (archived) Seymour Hersh reports on the state of the war and of significant differences of opinion between the U.S. intelligence services:

There are significant elements in the American intelligence community, relying on field reports and technical intelligence, who believe that the demoralized Ukraine army has given up on the possibility of overcoming the heavily mined three-tier Russian defense lines and taking the war to Crimea and the four oblasts seized and annexed by Russia. The reality is that Volodymyr Zelensky’s battered army no longer has any chance of a victory.

The war continues, I have been told by an official with access to current intelligence, because Zelensky insists that it must. There is no discussion in his headquarters or in the Biden White House of a ceasefire and no interest in talks that could lead to an end to the slaughter. “It’s all lies,” the official said, speaking of the Ukrainian claims of incremental progress in the offensive that has suffered staggering losses, while gaining ground in a few scattered areas that the Ukrainian military measures in meters per week.
…
The American intelligence official I spoke with spent the early years of his career working against Soviet aggression and spying has respect for Putin’s intellect but contempt for his decision to go to war with Ukraine and to initiate the death and destruction that war brings. But, as he told me, “The war is over. Russia has won. There is no Ukrainian offensive anymore, but the White House and the American media have to keep the lie going.

“The truth is if the Ukrainian army is ordered to continue the offensive, the army would mutiny. The soldiers aren’t willing to die any more, but this doesn’t fit the B.S. that is being authored by the Biden White House.”

The differences between the current CIA and the more neoconned Defense Intelligence Agency extend to their view on China:

Cont. reading: How Will The Biden Administration Cope With Its Loss In Ukraine?

When the Ukrainian President Zelenski recently spoke at the UN General Assembly the hall was pretty empty.

What the media hides. @narrative_hole – 23:43 UTC · Sep 20, 2023

🇺🇦 Ukrainian media edited the audience for Zelensky’s speech at the UN to make it look like everyone was listening, including Zelensky himself 😂
Embedded video

Strana also reported this (machine translation):

The telethon showed how Zelensky listens to himself in the UN hall during his own speech on the podium

A live broadcast of the national telethon of United News showed an edited version of President Volodymyr Zelensky's speech at the 78th session of the UN General Assembly, which took place on September 19.

As a result of editing, it turned out that Zelensky was sitting in the hall next to the head of the Presidential Office Andrey Ermak and Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, listening to himself from the podium.

There was no such oversight in the official UN broadcast.

Use as Ukraine Open Thread …

The current open thread for other issues is here

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) …

The New York Times is finally acknowledging that the September 6 deadly impact of a missile in the center of Kostiantynivka was caused by a Ukrainian missile:

Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy

One wonders what took them so long.

The Sept. 6 missile strike on Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine was one of the deadliest in the country in months, killing at least 15 civilians and injuring more than 30 others. The weapon’s payload of metal fragments struck a market, piercing windows and walls and wounding some victims beyond recognition.

Less than two hours later, President Volodymyr Zelensky blamed Russian “terrorists” for the attack, and many media outlets followed suit.

The New York Times was of course one of those media outlets that had spread Zelenski's lies:

The attack clouded Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken’s unannounced visit to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, the same day, one of the highest-level visits by a U.S. official to there since President Biden visited in February. Mr. Blinken met with President Volodymyr Zelensky, announced more than $1 billion in new U.S. aid for Ukraine and praised its people’s valor and resilience in the face of what he called Russia’s “horrific” aggression.

Just hours after the impact several bloggers has already found that the missile had come from the Ukrainian side. The next day the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) published a report about it:

On Sept. 6, a missile strike rocked Kostiantynivka, a town in the Donetsk region under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The missile hit a bustling city market at 2:04 p.m. local time, leaving 16 dead and 33 injured. Photos and videos of the aftermath of the strike have been circulated by various media outlets worldwide.

The videos showed evidence that the missile had come from the Ukrainian side. Ironically the main one had been published by Zelenski's office:

Cont. reading: New York Times Acknowledges Ukrainian Origin Of Deadly Strike

The Economist continues its series of interviews related to war in Ukraine. This week it has a talk with Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence branch:

An interview with the head of Ukraine’s defence intelligence

Budanov comes off as a bit of a loudmouth with claims that diverge from reality:

Ukraine may already have drawn on limited numbers of its reserve troops, but Russia is now, in seeming desperation, known to be committing under-strength reserves that it had not planned to deploy until late October. “Contrary to what the Russian Federation declares, it has absolutely no strategic reserve,” the general says. Russia’s 25th Combined Arms Army, now being prematurely deployed in the eastern front around Lyman and Kupyansk, has only 80% of the manpower and 55% of the equipment it was supposed to have, he says.

That seems to contradict the chief analyst of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency who the Economist interviewed just two weeks ago:

Ukrainian generals have told the Guardian newspaper that 80% of Russia’s effort went into building its first and second [defense] lines. But Mr Maul cautions that the bulk of Russia’s reinforcements remain at the third.

Budanov also has some strange believes about the state of Russia's economy:

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: Weird Claims, High Losses