Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 28, 2023

Ukraine SitRep - U.S. To Prolong Its Proxy War

Milley is uttering deluded nonsense.

U.S. Joint Chiefs' Gen. Milley cites Ukrainian counteroffensive 'breakthrough'

Ukraine's soldiers have penetrated the first line of Russian defense in spots along the southern front between the two countries, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley said Friday during a television interview with a Jordanian news outlet.

"Specifically on the axes of advance that (Ukrainian forces) are attacking right now, (Ukrainian forces) have attacked through the main defense belt," Milley told Al-Mamlaka Television.


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Show me a picture of Ukrainian tanks tackling a dragon's teeth barrier.


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You have none? Well, then you haven't even reached the first defense line.

Ukraine has taken Robotyne, a hamlet in ruins that once housed 480 people. It has cost the Ukrainian army at least a full battalion, 500 men and 30 armored vehicles, of its dwindling forces.

The CIA media asset David Ignatius has delivered the latest White House message on Ukraine. It is continuing to push for a fight down to the last Ukrainian:

As Biden administration officials assess Ukraine’s slow progress in this summer’s counteroffensive, they have been candidly discussing with Kyiv what they see as “lessons learned.” The bottom line for the administration is that this war will probably grind into next year — and that the United States and its allies must remain steadfast in helping Ukraine keep pushing forward.

I heard this same sentiment across all levels of the U.S. government in recent days. The summer has been frustrating and, in some ways, disappointing for Ukraine and its Western backers. But rather than look for a quick diplomatic exit ramp, most senior U.S. officials appear more convinced than ever of the need to stand fast with Kyiv. The United States, in their view, cannot be seen to abandon its ally.

There is a shimmer of realism breaking through but it is mixed with fantasies about the chances to bog Russia down:

But Ukraine probably won’t deal any decisive blow before year’s end. That means a continuation of this grueling war into 2024 and beyond, and a continuation of the heavy casualties and emotional trauma for both sides. U.S. officials believe strategic patience remains the best weapon against Russian President Vladimir Putin, who still thinks he can outlast Ukraine and the West.

Well, yes, Russia can outlast Ukraine and the West. Just look at the stupid advice the West is giving to Ukraine:

American commanders have long believed that the Ukrainians waste artillery fire in crushing barrages that emulate Soviet tactics. By one U.S. estimate, the Ukrainians have fired about 2 million rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition since the war began, nearly exhausting Western stockpiles. U.S. officials urge Ukraine instead to weight its artillery fires toward the most important targets and use them to advance quickly toward their objectives.

Pentagon officials have also urged Ukraine to rely less on drones for battlefield awareness and more on ground reconnaissance forces, which can assess Russian positions better. And they have pressed Kyiv to give junior officers more latitude to exploit opportunities along the sprawling front. On all these points, U.S. officials believe the Ukrainians are responding positively. But the discussion has been prickly in recent weeks.

The above is not sound military advice but an acknowledgement that the West can not produce enough artillery ammunition and drones for Ukraine to proceed:

A recent Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) report estimates that Russia fired 12 million artillery shells in 2022 and estimated the military would discharge seven million in 2023. This could indicate that Soviet-era stockpiles are thinning out. Still, the report notes that Russia is producing 2.5 million shells a year, in addition to munitions imports from North Korea and Iran.

In stark contrast, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated in January that the United States could only produce 93,000 155mm shells a year, all of which go to training exercises. If the military achieves an accelerated production schedule, it will produce 240,000 shells yearly, still less than 10 percent of Russia’s current production. Ukrainian artillery fires 8,000 rounds daily, consuming an entire month of current U.S. munitions production. Even if the Pentagon achieves its stated goal of manufacturing 90,000 shells a month by FY 2025, it still is only half of Russia’s current production level.

That lack of production capability is being covered up by a 'send anything we have, no matter how useful' attitude:

As Biden administration officials assess the likelihood that the war will continue into next year and perhaps beyond, they’re considering several important new augmentations of Western support. There’s growing backing in Washington for providing rocket-launched cluster munitions, for example, which could strike deeper than the artillery-fired versions the United States began supplying last month.

The White House also wants Ukraine to increase its terror attacks on Russian ground:

With Ukrainian forces stymied on the ground, U.S. officials believe that President Volodymyr Zelensky will take the fight increasingly to Russian territory and occupied Crimea. Friday’s reported Ukrainian attacks — with 42 drones launched at Crimea and a missile aimed at Moscow, according to Russian reports — is a foretaste of what’s ahead. The Biden administration’s position is that it doesn’t encourage or enable Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, but officials do expect more.

They try to play innocent but in reality, as the Economist reports, the targeting of those attacks is done by Western intelligence:

Russia’s extensive air-defence and electronic-warfare capacity means that any Ukrainian attack requires meticulous planning. Ukraine has developed algorithms that appear to work. Operators launch in the early morning (when defenders’ concentration might be lapsing) and use an order of attack designed to keep air defences busy. They gather intelligence (often from Western partners) about radars, electronic warfare and air-defence assets.

Those are diversion attacks, not stuff that will decide the war.

The strategic advantage is clearly on the Russian side:

Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, the military architect of German unification and one of history’s most famed soldiers, would instantly grasp the state of affairs in this summer of Ukrainian discontent. After Kiev and its Western backers hyped the prospects for the spring counteroffensive against Russia, the counteroffensive has posted fitful progress to date. Moltke would ascribe the disappointing results to the fact that the Ukrainian military confronts a foe waging the strongest form of warfare.

Strategic offense coupled with tactical defense. 

Moltke lays out the logic succinctly: “The tactical defense is the stronger [form of war], the strategic offensive the more effective form—and the only one that leads to the goal.” In other words, the contender that seizes or occupies some object or parcel of territory, then defends it tactically, primes itself for strategic and ultimately political success. In colloquial terms: grab something and hold it, and dare your enemy to come and take it back while fighting at a daunting disadvantage. For the German sage, in short, waging offense through defense blazes a path to triumph.

Advantage: Russia.

Tactical defense is what Russia has been doing over the last months. It has ground down the attacking Ukrainian forces by all means  available to it. When they are done with it the Russian forces will launch their strategic offensive campaign. They are then likely to rapidly progress through thinned out Ukrainian lines.

No illegal rocket-launched cluster munitions, no F-16, no terror attack on Russia, can prevent that.

The Ukrainians are simply fighting the wrong war, for the wrong cause:

Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski - 14:49 UTC · Aug 27, 2023

Commander in Chief of Ukrainian Forces & popular Ukrainian writer pose with red & black flag & popular Ukrainian newspaper propagates this. This was flag of far-right OUN & UPA which collaborated with Nazi Germany & was involved in mass murder of Jews, Poles & Ukrainians. This flag was used by far-right Right Sector. Mainstreaming & whitewashing of OUN & UPA symbols, such as their flag & their "Glory to Ukraine & Glory to the Heroes" greeting, continues. https://life.pravda.com.ua/culture/2023/08/27/256152/


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That flag, and the mindset behind it, is why Russia will not allow the Ukraine, and the U.S., to win.

Posted by b on August 28, 2023 at 12:48 UTC | Permalink

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I stole this video yesterday from someone? Good to be reminded of what Russia is figthing against:

Here is video evidence of the crimes of troops sent by the regime in Kiev against the civil population

https://crimes-of-ukraine.ru/video/horror-of-ukraine-war-civilians-shot-bombed-killed-raw-footage.html

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Aug 28 2023 12:57 utc | 1

Its been quite clear for a long time Ukraine can not win this war, yes they are capable of some gains like Robotyne at huge cost to men but this will not change the eventual outcome. Russia has all the resources to win a war of attrition.

Posted by: Zenith | Aug 28 2023 12:58 utc | 2

Apparently The Russians destroyed the Ukie stockpile of Long Range Cruise missiles....
From twitter....

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Armchair Warlord
@ArmchairW
Something I called on Telegram back on August 8th but which has been fully borne out by now:

Ukraine appears to be out of Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles, or at least very close to out of them, after a Russian strike in Khmelnitsky three weeks ago targeted what was likely the primary storage facility for the weapons.

The Russians hit the Starokonstantinov military airfield the night of August 5th, where Ukraine's small fleet of Su-24s modified to carry Western cruise missiles was based. Despite some online criticism of the strike as ineffective, massive secondary explosions were reported at the time and satellite photos of the aftermath show an enormous crater where the base's ammunition storage bunkers once sat. I believe that the strike was in fact highly successful and destroyed Ukraine's storage depot for its Storm Shadow missiles, placed exactly where they would logically be stored for most convenient use.

Ukraine conducted a large (and largely ineffectual) Storm Shadow strike on the road bridges connecting Crimea and Kherson on August 6th, but this is not inconsistent with the loss of the depot. The Ukrainians had warning of an incoming strike for hours beforehand and have made a practice of launching their aircraft during such attacks to avoid their destruction on the ground. The missiles fired on the 6th had likely been uploaded onto aircraft prior to the attack and were thus saved.

Now for the real tell - the next day, August 7th, the German Bundestag reversed their longstanding position on transferring Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine and authorized the move. This strongly suggests to me that this was done on an emergency basis as the Storm Shadow supply had suddenly run dry. There are very few coincidences in war, and Germany moving on Taurus missiles a matter of hours after the Russians destroyed an ammunition depot at a Ukrainian base hosting cruise missile-equipped strike aircraft is an enormous red flag - presumably, appropriate pressure was brought to bear on the Germans after this disaster and they fell in line, at least temporarily.

The Germans subsequently backed off transferring Taurus missiles to Russia, but they were clearly put under a great deal of pressure on the matter at the time. The Russians may have made some equally-convincing threats under the table after the Taurus transfer started being seriously discussed.

Most significantly, there have been no confirmed Storm Shadow attacks since August 6th. The Russian MoD released a video of one being intercepted by a Buk SAM system (almost certainly quite old), there have been rumors of Russian interdiction strikes against another missile shipment, and there were rumors that front-line positions in Rabotino were hit with a cruise missile attack (probably misreported JDAMs). That's it.

We've seen zero cruise missile strikes in the Russian deep rear in the last three weeks when they were previously happening with some regularity. Given the intensity and clear importance of the fighting in Zaporozhe over the course of this month it appears that Ukraine simply has no long-range weapons available for use at this critical juncture in the campaign.

With France and the UK seemingly out of missiles to send, Germany sitting on its own stockpile and the US very reluctant to transfer anything for fear of giving the Chinese a free hand in the Pacific, it's unclear to me where the Ukrainians are going to get new supplies of deep-strike weapons at this point.

Will Schryver chimes in....


Will Schryver
@imetatronink
For a few days prior to the strike at Khmelnytsky, we saw some of the largest Storm Shadow salvos the AFU had pulled off. As many as a dozen at once. Since then, as you've noted above, they've effectively disappeared.

Could some or all of the remaining Su-24s have also been destroyed? Quite possible.

Either way, if the AFU has lost most or all of its remaining long-range strike capability ... there's nothing left in the NATO cupboard to give them. Even HIMARS strikes have dwindled to just a handful per week, with most being shot down or disabled.

It's no wonder we're hearing lots of rumors about a pending major Russian counter-offensive.

Yet, From other telegram sources I hear complaints from the Russian side that the Ukies have long range artillery that controls the battle space from positions beyond the range of Russian artillery. This means that Lancet and other drones must destroy them. Which apparently is happening according to the MOD clobber list.

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 28 2023 13:03 utc | 3

Has anybody noticed the propaganda is starting to sound identical to Afghanistan? The problem is The Russian MIC is not the Taliban. This is not going to end unimaginably worse than the Kabul Airport fiasco.

Posted by: Goldhoarder | Aug 28 2023 13:09 utc | 4

http://avia.pro/news/ot-lukashenko-potrebovali-utrat-chvk-vagner-iz-belarusi

"После совместной встречи в Варшаве главы министерств внутренних дел и администрации Польши, Литвы, Латвии и Эстонии выразили единую позицию по ситуации на границе с Беларусью. В частности, министр внутренних дел и администрации Польши Мариуш Каминьский заявил о необходимости немедленного отвода военного частного подразделения "Вагнер" с территории Беларуси. Также было высказано требование к Минску убрать мигрантов из пограничной зоны."

Poland and the Chihuahuas are demanding. :)

Posted by: Catilina | Aug 28 2023 13:09 utc | 5

There's something squiffy about both these gentlemen 's faces, or is it the wide angle lens distorting them?
Also, isn't Red and black the colour scheme of Biden's mid-term elections launched?

Posted by: Giyane | Aug 28 2023 13:14 utc | 6

That image of Zaluzhny is not the first one where he poses in support of WW2 Nazis.
https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1609894585609719809

Posted by: Brendan | Aug 28 2023 13:21 utc | 7

As expected and as preferred by Russia the West keeps prolonging the war. So far no major surprises.

Posted by: Sal | Aug 28 2023 13:27 utc | 8

Ukraine did penetrate 2mi, of Russia's first defensive line at Robotyne and are now heading straight into Russia's 2nd line.

1. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th lines are heavier than the first one.
2. The UA is not trying to roll up the 1st line but is instead driving deeper. This is what Russia wants them to do.

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Aug 28 2023 13:28 utc | 9

The red and black flag represents "blood and soil", respectively, if anyone's curious about its symbolic origins.

On the war, the new cope is that "Tokmak is within artillery range, and if ever falls that's just as good as cutting off the land bridge".

Posted by: agent00F | Aug 28 2023 14:14 utc | 10

Thanks -b-

Confirmation of more plots and schemes. As I posted yesterday, years of this nonsense ahead.

Hopefully, Russia brings in their 3-400k reserves soon, finishes off occupying and finishing off Donbas and sets up buffer zone for itself to volley attacks for years since, aside from taking all of Ukraine, that’s what seems to be left. The US/NATO has no plan at all of leaving.

The “wildcard” for me, even with all US/NATO plans and plots, the wildcard is the “people”… the “citizens”… even the “brainwashed” can reach their fill.
It’s very noticeable to me, a “breakout” is starting to bulge. The US never calculates the “human” factor in their “campaigns” and schemes.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 28 2023 14:18 utc | 11

Re: 2. The UA is not trying to roll up the 1st line but is instead driving deeper. “This is what Russia wants them to do.”

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Aug 28 2023 13:28 utc | 9

I disagree. Russia would have been happy 2 Army’s ago of Ukraine/NATO ceasing firing on Donbas.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 28 2023 14:22 utc | 12

Re: “ As expected and as preferred by Russia the West keeps prolonging the war. So far no major surprises.”

Posted by: Sal | Aug 28 2023 13:27 utc | 8

I disagree. Russia does not want or “prefer” a prolonged war. They want NATO/US to take their toys, their minions and get off their porch. The sooner the better for them.

They’re dealing with the cards that are dealt is all. Their “preference” is ignored.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 28 2023 14:28 utc | 13

Couple of items in RIA Novosti today about Russian forces repelling Ukrainian attacks in the Kupyansk and Krasny-Liman axes. In Russian, but if you copy headline and lede into Google Translate, you get a useable translation:
(1) ВС России отразили две атаки ВСУ на Купянском направлении https://ria.ru/20230828/spetsoperatsiya-1892643017.html . МО РФ: на Купянском направлении ВСУ потеряли до 30 военных за сутки [Ukrainians lost up to 30 soldiers a day.]
(2) В Минобороны рассказали о потерях Киева на Краснолиманском направлении Киев за сутки потерял до 60 боевиков на Краснолиманском направлении https://ria.ru/20230828/poteri-1892641812.html . [Kiev in a day lost up to 60 soldiers. (in text:)Two Ukrainian attacks beaten off.]

Seems to indicate that the Ukrainians are still throwing units against the Russian recent offensives in the north (which perhaps were intended to re-establish a strong defensive position along the Oskol’ river). Which in turns suggests either that the Ukrainians still have units to deploy up there (contrary to Col. Macgregor and Scott Ritter’s prognostications), or are deploying them away from Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) or the Zaporozhe axes (in accordance with U.S. recommendations). In either case, a Ukrainian collapse doesn’t seem imminent. A least before the autumnal “razputitsa” (mud season) begins.

Posted by: Seward | Aug 28 2023 14:36 utc | 14

Re: “It was very clever of America to suck Russia into invading Ukraine. /s”

Posted by: Mike Adamson | Aug 28 2023 13:52 utc | 10

Not true. All their yapping before about “disconnection from swift”, “sanctions from hell” threats… all “miscalculation” they truly believed they could take an army invade Donbas, take Crimea, and at best, Russia would fight for Crimea but their “sanctions from hell” would take care of that detail.

They never actually believed for a second Russia “would invade” & that contingency of a possible R2P would be squashed by international outrage and sanctions.

Since they never “sucked in Russia”, it’s obvious because they’ve been doing nothing but “punting” like however month “what to do”….??

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 28 2023 14:41 utc | 15

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 28 2023 13:03 utc | 3

A truly excellent piece, thank you!

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 28 2023 14:44 utc | 16

Ukraine has developed algorithms that appear to work. Operators launch in the early morning (when defenders’ concentration might be lapsing’.

The tell is here, attacking during BMNT (Before Morning Nautical Twilight) to exploit a defenders sluggishness has been known for centuries, pretending it’s part of a newly developed algorithm is laughable.

"Specifically on the axes of advance that (Ukrainian forces) are attacking right now, (Ukrainian forces) have attacked through the main defense belt,

Note the weasel words and redefinition of their opponents language to achieve a desired goal, something they routinely do to their political opponents. He’s NOT using the term first line of defence as the Russians understand it, he’s just renamed their forward defence screen a ‘main defence belt’, therefore allowing him to claim they have achieved their first objective, when in reality they’re still struggling to get close. Even in this claim though the weasel words loved by this administration shine through. ‘Attacked through’ does not mean breached or penetrated, otherwise he would have used those distinct terms. Trouble is, this clever-clever lawfare dissembling means very little in the real world, as they are dimly beginning to realise.

Finally, the more they talk about it being unlikely that Russia will launch an offensive the more they sound like children trying to convince themselves that the mess they’re in isn’t so bad. Perhaps they really know they’re about to be taken to the woodshed by Papa Bear and can’t admit it.


Posted by: Milites | Aug 28 2023 14:48 utc | 17

thanks b.. excellent overview and disappointing, but as expected from the west here.. usa - nato and friends don't give a rats ass about ukraine, ukrainians or anything of this sort... it is all about the money and taking russia down... that is as clear as day...

@ Trubind1 - thanks for your posts.. right on..

Posted by: james | Aug 28 2023 14:54 utc | 18

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 28 2023 14:41 utc | 17

I have the impression the poster was sarcastic, but I could be wrong. However, there is an issue to be addressed if Russia intervened in the Ukraine to confront the Maidanist regime and instead is constantly attacked by the NATO forces with impunity. I make this point because it is obvious that most of the high quality assets in the front and the terror/bombing attacks within Russia are planned and executed by NATO personnel.

Now, one can understand why the Anglo-Americans and their minions hide behind "the Ukrainians did it" canard. It is a problem, however, that the Russian leadership plays along with this charade. It is costly to the country and its troops both in terms of human and material losses as well as morale. At some point it nust become clear to he western masters (NOT backers) of the Maidanist regime that they are playing with fire. Because they surely do not seem to get the message with the use of the current rhetoric from Russia.

Posted by: Constantine | Aug 28 2023 14:55 utc | 19

Would not normally post stuff from TGP - but there are some interesting quotes in here. Seems like some in the West may be beginning to catch up with reality on the ground.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/08/meat-grinder-ukraine-loses-4855-men-last-week/

OGDuck

Posted by: OGDuck | Aug 28 2023 14:55 utc | 20

It was very clever of America to suck Russia into invading Ukraine. /s

Posted by: Mike Adamson | Aug 28 2023 13:52 utc | 10

‘Clever’ in a similar sense to a serial killer; ‘charming’, lying, disarming and attacking a vulnerable victim. The victim in this analogy being the state and territory formerly known as the Ukraine.

Diabolical is probably a more accurate term for US actions. Clever is a dog fetching a ball back.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Aug 28 2023 14:56 utc | 21

@ Milites | Aug 28 2023 14:48 utc | 19

great observations on the linguistics of all this..

@ Constantine | Aug 28 2023 14:55 utc | 21

i agree with you.. what do you recommend russia do at this point?? attack nato, the ones responsible here??

Posted by: james | Aug 28 2023 15:04 utc | 22

Because they surely do not seem to get the message with the use of the current rhetoric from Russia.

Posted by: Constantine | Aug 28 2023 14:55 utc | 21

Rhetoric is of little interest at this stage.
Deeds would carry a stronger message...
NATO needs to sustain some painful loss - under plausible deniability - before they start thinking twice.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Aug 28 2023 15:11 utc | 23

Posted by: james | Aug 28 2023 15:04 utc | 24

James, as I understand it Russian MoD forces are attacking NATO forces every day in the theatre of the former Ukraine. The wiser posters here will explain far better than me why it’s in Russia’s interest to limit the action to one (long) front, there are many historical examples where overly rapid escalation led to over reach. When the numbers are favouring Russia, why do that?

The scope for escalation is terrifying and that scope remains an option for Russian decision makers. The ‘terror’ attacks on Moscow make little difference to the outcome of the real fight, but Washington authorises them as they have potential to create splits in Russian strategy. Armchair generals on this forum are an example of this when they urge nuclear retaliation to every NATO drone attack.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Aug 28 2023 15:16 utc | 24

i like the line about the usa being a victim of its own propaganda... that would be divine justice..

Posted by: james | Aug 28 2023 15:16 utc | 25

@ Lev Davidovich | Aug 28 2023 15:16 utc | 26

thanks lev... i appreciate that, but i was really trying to understand a different psychology at work here with constantine.. i am hopeful he will explain his rationale in greater depth..

Posted by: james | Aug 28 2023 15:18 utc | 26

Ukraine proxy war is "winding" down, Corona hoax is coming back. Easy as pie. And since Russia won't come and hold the US (establishment) accountable nothing matters to them. Just another "win-win"-scenario where they got the money and everybody else paid.

2024 will be interesting when they have to fraud the next election-cycle to keep Trump down. But they most likely have him murdered before that becomes a serious danger. And the US-population is way too much brain dead and/or under sedation at this point to go full civil war. Just look at the other countries under the US-empire (especially Australia and Canada). They will go full fascist before the status quo is endangered. And their population sure as fuck will comply.

Posted by: RobRob | Aug 28 2023 15:28 utc | 27

@Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 28 2023 13:03 utc | 3

Very interesting. We should know if this is true soon, if the Storm Shadows are really gone.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 28 2023 15:29 utc | 28

>> Ukraine has developed algorithms ...

Those Ukrainians are amazing! Algorithms, Underwater-Drones capable of bypassing Russia's marine defenses, flying drones capable of evading all air defense systems between Kiew and Moscow, long-range missiles with the same capabilities.

Truly astonishing.

And coming soon: "Ukrainian" pilots that have learned to master F-16 in a matter of weeks when their NATO-counterparts have needed years.

Posted by: Marvin | Aug 28 2023 15:29 utc | 29

It was very clever of America to suck Russia into invading Ukraine. /s

Posted by: Mike Adamson | Aug 28 2023 13:52 utc | 10

Almost as clever as invading Afghanistan and staying 20 years. Or maybe killing Gaddafi and turning Libya into a failed state, oh or invading Iraq...

The Imperialists are really clever!

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 28 2023 15:32 utc | 30

As mentioned by George WO@3 about Ukrainian long range missile capability and a post yesterday regarding successful m777 howitzer hunting it seems that Ukraine's ability to strike behind Russian lines has been seriously degraded. They still have some effective drone forces, but after a few videos of use of a longer range version we have seen no more. Additionally, the nightly missile strikes appear to be relatively unapposed by effective AD, and rather than massive waves of drones and missiles they seem more limited to specific military/industrial targets and not at elimination of remaining AD.

The status of the drone boat fleet on the Black Sea coast is unknown, but I suspect that the production and assembly points are underground and well protected. Perhaps the same for the airborne drones used to attack Crimea, although the ability to send waves of drones similar to the attack with 42 a week ago is probably limited by low porduction rate, and the success rate for this tactic is low. Drone boats achieved 3 successful hits amidst a number of failures. Suprise seemed essential to success in these cases, and diminishing returns for this tactic seem likely.

Lack of reserves probably hampering any progress along the front with only the area of Rabotyne showing any significant movement.

Question for the Russian side is do they currently have sufficient reserves and material in position to exploit this situation now, or will they wait for this winter or even late spring to try and move further west?

IMO a move forward would try to rapidly break through the current defensive lines and move deeper to cut major supply routes to the east and isolate urban areas. This would require a lot of fresh reserves with effective logistical support and some surety that Ukraine had little means to effectively attack Russian supply lines or interfere with air support for ground troops.

Waiting for the leaves to fall and the ground to freeze gives some advantage at the risk of giving Ukraine a chance to regroup, deploy additional resources, and prepare stronger defenses.

We will see...

Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 28 2023 15:34 utc | 31

It seems like Milley is getting his direction from Dima at the Military Summary channel on YouTube. Last month he was wetting his pants over Platoon size maneuvers along the Dnieper in Kherson and now is cheering on the Ukrainian forces in Robotyne as they create their own cauldron.

Russia has shaped the 'Summer' Offensive into their crumple zones with every gain in territory spawning a logistics nightmare - smells like Victory to me!

Posted by: Eric Blair | Aug 28 2023 15:39 utc | 32

I am waiting for more news from the Russian investigation committee on the downing of the Prigozhin plane. We have conformation that the passenger list was correct and we know Prigozhin is dead. But I have not heard anything official on what might have caused the crash. The longer it takes, the more questions.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 28 2023 15:41 utc | 33

It was very clever of America to suck Russia into invading Ukraine. /s

Posted by: Mike Adamson | Aug 28 2023 13:52 utc | 10

Yep, you can tell Ms Nuland & her friends are political and military geniuses from the lapidary way this project has all been glued together. /s

I was in fact both obviously possible to do and futile to do, before they ever started, and they were told that. So of course they did it.

Being transgressive becomes a habit after a while.

Posted by: Bemildred | Aug 28 2023 15:45 utc | 34

Russia is still selling Uranium to the USA - FUCK the hypocrites in the Kremlin allowing their own Russian people to die in a grinding war that they have the ability to enforce the dozens of "red lines" that the USA/NATO has crossed.

Target the supply lines - declare USA & NATO parties to the conflict and hit their military bases. Mitt Romney is gleefully declaring what a bargain our printed money has been in the death of thousands of Russians.

Fuck the corrupt Kremlin oligarchs.

Posted by: Sundance | Aug 28 2023 15:49 utc | 35

Rybar reported on Sunday that a general lull was observed almost everywhere on the FEBA and that Robotyne was still contested. Rybar's big map has two major insets depicting the main areas of battle at Robotyne and Kupyansk with the former shown as becoming ripe for counterattacks along the flanks to collapse the pocket and form a cauldron.

There's no rain in the long-term forecast for Donetsk which will favor Russian drone warfare which has proven very effective. I found this observation by Rybar significant:

"There was practically no shelling in the border areas today. This is probably due to large-scale counter-battery actions carried out by Russian forces."

And that brings the issue not of ammo but of Ukie tubes remaining as Lancet drones alone kill at least six daily confirmed by video footage.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 28 2023 15:51 utc | 36

Thank as always b.

None of this now can be looked at without the lens of Democratic Party politics as the election cycle begins to swing. Democrats are in a complete shambles. BRICS expands, depression inducing de-dollarization continues apace, Biden Crime Family scandal being held back like a thumb in an overflowing dike, pushbacks against new covid scare, whispers about how to replace Biden without going with Harris (Hint: Feinstein's Senate seat), Bidenomics - which is a punchline, the failed 'war' in Ukraine, a resolute China - all these thing (and more!) make for big changes coming.

Ukraine is a symbol of American Exceptionalism. The reality is more like Building 7 right into its own footprint.

Posted by: gottlieb | Aug 28 2023 15:57 utc | 37

Posted by: Seward | Aug 28 2023 14:36 utc | 16

"In either case, a Ukrainian collapse doesn’t seem imminent. A least before the autumnal “razputitsa” (mud season) begins."

Response: If the Ukrainians can hold out until the mud season begins, they will have some time to recover from their recent losses. The mud should stop any major Russian advance.

The autumn rains come to Ukraine in October and November. As the temperature drops, the rains do not dry out so fast causing the mud to thicken. It usually thickens in the autumn to a point where using heavy military equipment gets stuck in the mud.

The Russians will need to launch a 2023 offensive within the next month to avoid the mud.

The later the Russians launch an offensive this year, the quicker they will need to move to take whatever territory they want before the mud comes.

Wild Card: Maybe, the Russians have developed technology that would allow their heavy military equipment to easily traverse the mud? If this should be the case, the best time for Russia to launch an offensive would be when Ukraine and the West were least expecting it. That would be after the muds form from the autumn rains.

Posted by: young | Aug 28 2023 15:59 utc | 38

@young | Aug 28 2023 15:59 utc | 41

Wild Card: Maybe, the Russians have developed technology that would allow their heavy military equipment to easily traverse the mud?
It is not rocket science. Lighter vehicles, wider tracks.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 28 2023 16:09 utc | 39

Newest report says AFU is trying to capture two hills to the east of Novopokrovske, which are in front of their main axis of advance and control the area. But they have been unsuccessful.

I'd wager that RU can move the frontline back in a controlled fashion, if they need to. AFU has not managed to take the entrenchments south of Robotyne either. This is speculation, but if AFU bogs down in front of Novopokrovske, they will eventually need to pull back as RU has control of the flanks and could use it to put the spearhead in a crossfire. The only thing RU needs to do is slow down and wear down the AFU spearhead between Verbove and Novopokrovsk and maintain the current flanks.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 28 2023 16:27 utc | 40

Re: Posted by: Constantine | Aug 28 2023 14:55 utc | 21

“It is a problem, however, that the Russian leadership plays along with this charade. It is costly to the country and its troops both in terms of human and material losses as well as morale. At some point it nust become clear to he western masters (NOT backers) of the Maidanist regime that they are playing with fire. Because they surely do not seem to get the message with the use of the current rhetoric from Russia.“

“Rhetoric from Russia”?? “Charade”?

I’m not sure how many 100s of times, or 100s of ways Russia can say:
1) This is a U.S./NATO war
2) The “collective” West is at war with Russia
3) Ukraine is a controlled puppet state
4) Ukraine has no authority to make decisions
5) NATO arms & supplys are prolonging the war

All of this was stated in 100s of ways.
The “message” is not received .
Russia is on the battlefield.
What more do you want? An all out, no more blanketed “proxy” battle, “damn the torpedoes” moment? Even on a NATO/Russia “conventional” war level, that’s millions of deaths. Have you seen these crazies? Do you think blanketing Ukraine and leveling all of Ukraine will “scare” them out of being crazy? They’ll magically see Russia’s “power” and what? Stop & desist?
Even losing this “proxy war” over 4 little territories has caused them to show their madness, increased their obsession… you think it gets better the “more” Russia takes and the longer they hold their position? Russia is dealing with the crazy (Zelensky) that he knows, since another will take his place.

The same “message” has been conveyed for 22 years. Russia has been firm, it is not “rhetoric”.
No one listens.
Rational people do not conceive of anything other than the rational.
But there is another, and that is what is at play here.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 28 2023 16:28 utc | 41

Posted by: james | Aug 28 2023 15:16 utc | 25

##########

One of the earliest life lessons children learn is that playing with fire often leads to getting burned.

I firmly believe that what we think and say is powerful in shaping our lives. Speak too many lies for too long, and one will struggle to understand any truths.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 28 2023 16:30 utc | 42

Great summary b. Garland Nixon believes that the Russians could be content to stay on the defensive in 'rope a dope' fashion (Ali v Foreman) until the fall of 2024 - so that the demands of the November election will force Biden to settle in a manner favourable to the Russians with 'peaceniks' Trump and RFK junior breathing down his neck. I can't see it myself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqVoKrh7sbs

Posted by: Rob Campbell | Aug 28 2023 16:31 utc | 43

Posted by: Rob Campbell | Aug 28 2023 16:31 utc | 44

##############

I think most of the knowledgeable observers know that time is on Russia's side. The longer this goes, the better for Russia. Because of the third and fourth fronts (economic and diplomatic). The longer the US is giving money and attention to Ukraine, the easier it will be for Russia to continue their advances in those other domains.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 28 2023 16:36 utc | 44

Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 28 2023 15:34 utc | 31

‘Lack of reserves probably hampering any progress along the front with only the area of Rabotyne showing any significant movement.’

I think the only significant movement in Robotyne is the earth being churned by Russian shells and bombs. They are still km’s from the first defence line, a D+2-3 objective still not reached by D+84!

Posted by: Eric Blair | Aug 28 2023 15:39 utc | 32

‘with every gain in territory spawning a logistics nightmare’

True, and made worse by using mainly infantry who can only carry what they need, using IFV’s as battle taxis to dump of squad sized elements effectively strands them. If they do conduct an assault or have to fight off a counter-attack they burn through their ammo and supplies stockpiled at a frightening rate, and or have to leave them. This then requires resupply which reveals their positions, exposes the vehicles to attack and comes with a delay factor a canny defender can exploit.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 28 2023 16:45 utc | 45

If someone explained the logic behind how this all happened and why, I'm sure it would sound like 5th dimension, warp hole gibberish.
Who thought it would work? The math was waaay off.
Then the thing about northern peoples, inured to suffering. Hell yea they'll fight in sunny Ukraine. Get paid enough to buy an apartment near St. Petersburg.Bring home a nice Ukrainian girl.
Better than being a grunt on some pipeline in Siberia.

Posted by: Rabbit | Aug 28 2023 16:47 utc | 46

» munitions imports from North Korea and Iran «
I have yet to see any credible evidence for this continually repeated ‘assessment’

»backing in Washington for providing rocket-launched cluster munitions«
Ah. More Tochka-U with cluster sub-munitions for the Ukrainian population of the East.

People seem to forget that the Nazis were a Western regime, that the UK and US committed abhorrent war crimes throughout ww2 and its aftermath, and that all the Nazis escaped to the West. Whatever fascism is, it is part of the Western core.

Posted by: Webej | Aug 28 2023 16:50 utc | 47

Just saw on mainstream TV in my western country a reportage about Zelensky having bought a 5 million dollar villa in Egypt. The journalists expressed "their concern" on how he acquired such an amount, and why he's spending it this way "while so many Ukrainians are dying". First "bad publicity" I see of him on TV. Gave me the impression of first steps for character assassination and subsequent dethronement.

Posted by: Lathe biosas | Aug 28 2023 16:51 utc | 48

"I'd wager that RU can move the frontline back in a controlled fashion, if they need to."

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 28 2023 16:27 utc | 40

I think you would win that bet. It looks like the Russians are just waiting for Milley to make a complete ass of himself.

Posted by: dh | Aug 28 2023 16:52 utc | 49

I think one of the last sentences should be fixed:
"That flag, and the mindset behind it, is why Russia will not allow the Ukraine to exist."

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Aug 28 2023 16:56 utc | 50

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 28 2023 16:36 utc | 44

Time is certainly on Russia's side in the wider context of its war with the West. I also believe that Russia's defensive strategy is working so they should continue with it - but I am not convinced that the Ukrainian army will last until next Autumn and that's why I don't agree with Garland. Of course, he could be right: none of us knows what will happen.

Posted by: Rob Campbell | Aug 28 2023 17:00 utc | 51

Posted by: OGDuck | Aug 28 2023 14:55 utc | 20

oh you know who the Gateway Pundit is? are you from the U.S.?

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 28 2023 17:01 utc | 52

Re: “Ukraine proxy war is "winding" down,”
Posted by: RobRob | Aug 28 2023 15:28 utc | 27

I disagree. Not everything will go according to US/WEF desires & plans.

Ukraine has “just begun”. Russia “hasn’t done anything so far”.

If you think Russia has any intention of allowing US/NATO to slither off into “political “ shadowland about Ukraine like Libya, Iraq , Afghanistan & Syria when they got bored, or shinier objects got their attention…
Think again.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 28 2023 17:03 utc | 53

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 28 2023 17:01 utc | 52

###############

Gay Catholic publisher who regularly features Larry Johnson's columns.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 28 2023 17:10 utc | 54

Milites@45

The point was that Robtyne seems the only place where a significant number of reserves are still available, not that militarily significant progress is being made there. Time should tell - a week or two.

Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 28 2023 17:10 utc | 55

People on here and other sites keep saying, Ukraine can't win this war. But look at those pictures the site owner posted. They are smiling posing in front of supremist flags with no care in the world. If Ukraine was really in any danger of losing this war, they aren't showing it. In fact, they are living it up in all their major cities outside the reach of Russia's control. It became so obvious, that Zelensky himself told his people to knock it off as to not wake Western sheep up and keep the money flowing.

Posted by: bored | Aug 28 2023 17:11 utc | 56

Posted by: young | Aug 28 2023 15:59 utc | 38

Mud yes, agree. But Russia has always done very well militarily over ice and snow. There are many advantages for them , particularly when it comes to forested areas.

It’s US/NATO that need to hide behind and hope for a “seasonal stall/break”. And you only here about “mud, rains, and winter & blah blah from West”.
Russia will assess & proceed, as able. They’ve no plans to “break” that I can see.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 28 2023 17:12 utc | 57

Thinking back to the Chechen wars. Those were proxy wars, US fighting Russia through Wahhabi/jihadi terrorists. That occurred at a time when the Russian government was a puppet who would do anything Washington asked. The wars were fomented for the pleasure of killing Russians. And keeping Russia weak.

Hard to imagine how Washington would sustain much terrorism following a strategic defeat on the battlefield. Surely they will try as they know nothing else. They will ally with absolutely insane irredentists. Those same irredentists are unable to do much right now, with an imaginary nation under their control and infinite Western backing.

Posted by: oldhippie | Aug 28 2023 17:14 utc | 58

"your last chance at staying alive"

Social video for Ukrainians

https://t.me/digitalarmyrus/4722

Makes me wonder, the impact would not be very lasting, so, probably, RuMoD planned really something this video would facilitate for coming weeks.

Wonder if such a video could be re-uploaded to something like Vimeo or YouTube or Twitter

Posted by: Arioch | Aug 28 2023 17:20 utc | 59

USA to Ukraine, "Stop wasting so much equipment and ammunition! Throw more men in the grinder, instead.
Nudleman says - down to the last Ukrainian - and she means it."

"Now let's you and him fight!", says the instigator.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Aug 28 2023 17:22 utc | 60

Re: Posted by: Eric Blair | Aug 28 2023 15:39 utc | 32
Agree with it all, and appreciate the colorful witty words.
Cheers!

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 28 2023 17:22 utc | 61

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 28 2023 17:12 utc | 57

"Mud yes, agree. But Russia has always done very well militarily over ice and snow. There are many advantages for them , particularly when it comes to forested areas.

It’s US/NATO that need to hide behind and hope for a “seasonal stall/break”. And you only here about “mud, rains, and winter & blah blah from West”.
Russia will assess & proceed, as able. They’ve no plans to “break” that I can see."

Response: Last year the weather was warm along the zero line. There were very few days of solid frozen ground that would support tanks and other.

If Russia is going to advance this year before the muddy season, they will need to do so before October 1st. The muddy season will prevent advancement for at least several months until the freezes come.

Wild Card: The Russians may have developed new technology which will allow them to traverse over muddy ground with heavy military equipment. If this is the case then the West will not be expecting much, if any, Russian movement during the muddy season.

Posted by: young | Aug 28 2023 17:23 utc | 62

@young | Aug 28 2023 15:59 utc | 41

Interesting idea. Rain means clouds and they may reduce effectivness of NATO observation satellites which may enable RUS to concentrate larger units not far from contact line. Heavy mud will disadvantage UKR which uses a lot of NATO vehicles which are not designed for heavy mud, unlike Russian ones. This means that UKR forces will have problem to maneuver on dirt roads which may result in lack of ammo, fuel and menpower. RUS has dramaticaly increased its drone production and RUS suicide drones may control all asphalt roads within 20km from battle line which will make UKR logistics difficult. Add to this more RUS glide bombs and jamming of Starlink consoles which is probably in early production phase. There are significant daily losses of UKR heavy artillery which will be difficult to replace. Big issue will obviously be land mines used by UKR forces. We will see if RUS units move forward as its tactical defense is doing well.

Posted by: J_Schneider | Aug 28 2023 17:27 utc | 63

young | Aug 28 2023 17:23 utc | 62
*** If Russia is going to advance this year before the muddy season, they will need to do so before October 1st. The muddy season will prevent advancement for at least several months until the freezes come.
Wild Card: The Russians may have developed new technology which will allow them to traverse over muddy ground with heavy military equipment. If this is the case then the West will not be expecting much, if any, Russian movement during the muddy season.***

Recall that Russia and NATO countries tried military hovercraft years ago ... what happened, did they turn out to be a failure?

Posted by: Cynic | Aug 28 2023 17:29 utc | 64

Milley is just pleasing his civilian masters. The US military is subordinate to them. It is also budget approval time for Congressional appropriations.

There are some shifting sands to be noticed. Sometime, likely no later than next Spring, some acknowledgement of the 'set backs' (cannot call it defeat) will be more forthcoming. NYT, as CIA proxy, seems to be in the lead. WaPo, DoS proxy, following, wsj taking up the rear. I do not follow TV in any form.

One can only respect the Russians for their slow, deliberate, well-considered actions in the face of all their obstacles, some of them internal. They seem to be doing well enough with modernizing their military.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 28 2023 17:29 utc | 65

Whatever fascism is, it is part of the Western core.

Posted by: Webej | Aug 28 2023 16:50 utc | 47

I know this one, I know this one…

Fascism is capitalism at the stage of impotent imperialism, usually sponsored by business corporations.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Aug 28 2023 17:31 utc | 66

Meanwhile, the slow methodical squeezing of Kupyansk continues. With RU gaining higher margin of artillery superiority and AFU deploying significant forces into the city, Kupyansk is set to become a Bakhmut on steroids.

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1696213638892159032

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 28 2023 17:34 utc | 67

> This was flag of far-right OUN & UPA

with all respect to professor Katchanovsky, one of the few honest Canada Ukrainians, this flag is much older and much more universal.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_and_soil


Blood and Soil (German: Blut und Boden) is a nationalist slogan expressing Nazi Germany's ideal of a racially defined national body ("Blood") united with a settlement area ("Soil"). By it, rural and farm life forms are idealized as a counterweight to urban ones. It is tied to the contemporaneous German concept of Lebensraum, the belief that the German people were to expand into Eastern Europe, conquering and displacing the native Slavic and Baltic population

Posted by: Arioch | Aug 28 2023 17:36 utc | 68

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 28 2023 16:30 utc | 42

A psychologist at a party explained to me the liars curse. It’s not that they cannot tell truth from falsehood, it’s that they assume everyone else is because they realise how easy it is. I certainly know, from experience, that those who automatically accuse people of lying tend to be liars themselves.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 28 2023 17:36 utc | 69

Cynic | Aug 28 2023 17:29 utc | 64

Recall that Russia and NATO countries tried military hovercraft years ago ... what happened, did they turn out to be a failure?

I was going to make a joke about hover tanks. Seriously, though, I picture hovercraft as having a rather delicate air curtain on all sides that would be pretty easy to destroy in a military setting.

Also, I hear tanks are really heavy...

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Aug 28 2023 17:37 utc | 70

Russia's internal political problems and concerns have led to a somewhat proficient, but also somewhat mangled, military campaign. The death of Prighozin, the demotion of Surovikin and other officers critical of Shoigu and the central bureaucracy, the absorption of Wagner--which had been the most ruthless and efficient force the Russians had been able to muster, in part *because* it operated to a large extent outside the regular bureaucracy--all this bodes ill for Russia's military performance over the next crucial six months or so. At least, this is how I've regrettably come to view things. Hope I'm wrong.

Posted by: WJ | Aug 28 2023 17:40 utc | 71

Hey -B-

This one’s for you. This is too rich, you cited in your article today about US Millie wanting Ukraine to “step up attacks on Russian territory”… apparently Zelensky must have read that as well…

Here is his response:
https://tass.com/world/1665993

He “doesn’t want to be alone”
lol 😂 it’s definitely a ROFL moment for me… and here I thought I wouldn’t laugh today at all… too good

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 28 2023 17:43 utc | 72

Wild Card: Maybe, the Russians have developed technology that would allow their heavy military equipment to easily traverse the mud? If this should be the case, the best time for Russia to launch an offensive would be when Ukraine and the West were least expecting it. That would be after the muds form from the autumn rains.

Posted by: young | Aug 28 2023 15:59 utc | 38

The technology exists..... hover craft....

Shown in James Bond Movie "Die Another Day"

Floats over mine fields... very fast...

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 28 2023 17:45 utc | 73

Posted by: Rob Campbell | Aug 28 2023 17:00 utc | 51

I’m coming around to that opinion myself, regarding Ukraine’s militarily tolerance’s being exceeded. At the start of the SMO, after the initial failed coup-de-main, I thought the conflict had a similar dynamic to ‘44-‘45, now it’s definitely ‘45.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 28 2023 17:45 utc | 74

thx b

just to remind you all: "popular Ukrainian writer" on the last image received the German book publishers´ prize for peace in literature last year ("Friedenspreis des deutschen Buchhandels").

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedenspreis_des_Deutschen_Buchhandels

Whoever opposed it was seriously denounced. In a working space as precarious as the arts such denounciations can cost careers. So everyone shuts up. Instead poets prefer marching to WWIII.

Posted by: AG | Aug 28 2023 17:49 utc | 75

> rather delicate air curtain on all sides that would be pretty easy to destroy in a military setting.

> Posted by: Boris Badenov | Aug 28 2023 17:37 utc | 70

I don't think so. This delicacy, comparing with tin steel of family cars, would rather make bullets and shards just fly through, without absorbing their destructive energy.

However, hovercrafts are rather fuel-hungry, so unless specific circumstances demand their use, usual trucks and trains are much better an option

Posted by: Arioch | Aug 28 2023 18:05 utc | 76

Short of launching a nuclear strike, there is little that Russia can do that will so much as mildly inconvenience the decisionmakers in Washington. For that matter, the EU political class can say "let them eat cake" and simply ban pesky opponents without so much as a peep of criticism from the people that they care about.

Therefore, they have every incentive to continue the war indefinitely. The Russian leadership is naive and has been naive to think otherwise.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Aug 28 2023 18:07 utc | 77

"Now for the real tell - the next day, August 7th, the German Bundestag reversed their longstanding position on transferring Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine and authorized the move."

Did anyone seriously think that Germany would do otherwise? Whether Ukraine had run out of Storm Shadows/Scalpels or not is irrelevant.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Aug 28 2023 18:09 utc | 78

Posted by: WJ | Aug 28 2023 17:40 utc | 71

Wagner as a PMC was useful in last years advance on Severodonetsk and Lyschiansks, having been the ones to open the front in Popasna. That is where their film was also made.

But instead of being smart and methodical, it all went into their head thinking that they would liberate everything by brute force. As a good entrepreneur will do, seizing any opportunity for marketing and growth. But there is a reason why armies are not private enterprises. In Bakhmut they spent countless resources, also human, without any large significance except PR and branding. Blackmailing the RF army all the way, which led to their demise via the stupid coup.

So ruthless and PR yes, but efficient and smart no. You can see by the amount of news, comments, emotions etc that have been spent on a factual non-event (the death of Prigozhin) how succesful the Wagner brand has become, especially in the West. Maybe the RF institutions can learn something from this from an infowar perspective.

As far as the General Staff is concerned, it is all part of the Wester propaganda to personify and villify individuals instead of looking at the state institutions as having a concerted effort and common goal. In that way they avoid the trap of persecuting a whole people and their way of life and can blame everything on a “dictator”. So you can take Shoigu or Putin out, all will stay the same because of the institutional drive in Russia.

Posted by: alek_a | Aug 28 2023 18:14 utc | 79

Posted by: WJ | Aug 28 2023 17:40 utc | 71

BTW I do agree that RFs campaign so far has been a mixed bag. Some deficiencies are revealing fundamental problems with their position on the SMO. But that are institutional problems and contradictions, systemic I may say, that ask for solutions on the long run. Never individuals, the moment someone mentions that, it means Western propaganda has influenced them.

Posted by: alek_a | Aug 28 2023 18:17 utc | 80

Posted by: WJ | Aug 28 2023 17:40 utc | 71

People’s abilities to deal with a situation tend to improve the longer they’re exposed to it, why do you think the Russian Armed forces are any different?

I see the slow pace of the SMO being partly a result of maximising the conflicts ability to help the Russian Armed forces make the transition from a territorial defence force to one that has the capability to conduct force projection missions at corps level and above. In essence, the SMO is an opportunity for the Russian Armed forces to inherit the Red Armies legacy and capabilities.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 28 2023 18:17 utc | 81

Finally, remember the Ukrainian offensive on Krasy Liman last year?

It was successful, in spite of massive Ukrainian losses, because the Russia political and military leadership refused to devote enough men and resources to the war.

This is spite of the fact that everyone saw it coming. Hell, bloggers on the internet saw it coming. However the Russian leadership dithered, while Ukraine continued to press on regardless of casualties. Ten million Ukrainians could die tomorrow and it would not trouble Nuland or Blinken, or even that little twerp Zelenskii one bit.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Aug 28 2023 18:20 utc | 82

Finally, remember the Ukrainian offensive on Krasy Liman last year?

It was successful

I don't think that word 'successful' means what you think it means.

Russia has Maericas financial nuts in a steel jawed trap labelled 'slava Ukraine'. The sycophants and criminals aren't getting out if it until they cry uncle. This realization is slowly dawning on the clowns that pass as Maerican strategic leadership.

I'm sort of like shadowbanned but in reverse, pointing out the utter idiocy, cowardice and incompetence of Western leadership, their impending economic bankruptcy and the intellectual bankruptcy of their political establishment and their military institutions. Sorry if I am being repetitive! Ha.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 28 2023 18:26 utc | 83

I read on realcleardefence that Russia is using horses.

Posted by: Guy L'Estrange | Aug 28 2023 18:38 utc | 84

@Arioch | Aug 28 2023 18:05 utc | 76

(Re hovercraft) I don't think so. This delicacy, comparing with tin steel of family cars, would rather make bullets and shards just fly through, without absorbing their destructive energy.

Perhaps. I suspect that an enemy would discover an effective match pretty quickly. Lancets? Incindiaries? Just plain HE shells?

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Aug 28 2023 18:39 utc | 85

@ LoveDonbass | Aug 28 2023 16:30 utc | 42

thanks for your posts at moa... i concur with your position.. lying is a bad habit and one that will eventually bite the liar in the ass.. that is my hope here.. lying = propaganda...

@ Feral Finster | Aug 28 2023 18:07 utc | 77 and other posts..

i think you underestimate what russia sees and understands here.. of course it is easy to criticize too, lol.. russia has faults and has been on a learning curve.. i am not sure the same can be said for nato and friends.. obviously they don't give a shit about ukrainians! and that in spite of the ongoing lies that we continue to hear in the msm.. i'd be careful blaming russia for taking an approach that is different from your own! but that's me..

Posted by: james | Aug 28 2023 18:39 utc | 86

Posted by: Milites | Aug 28 2023 17:45 utc | 74

Many of us look to the past to describe the present. I don't know how many times commentators (including myself) have compared this conflict with battles in previous wars - e.g. the Battle of the Bulge (the 1944 Ardennes Offensive); Kursk or Stalingrad. Comparisons with The Bulge have already been discontinued, I think, and there is not much of a future for comparisons with Kursk. But Stalingrad? I bet the Russians would love a Stalingrad ending.

Posted by: Rob Campbell | Aug 28 2023 18:42 utc | 87

What will the Ukrainians think when this war is over? Was it all worthwhile?

Posted by: kerdasi amaq | Aug 28 2023 18:50 utc | 88

Short of launching a nuclear strike, there is little that Russia can do that will so much as mildly inconvenience the decisionmakers in Washington. For that matter, the EU political class can say "let them eat cake" and simply ban pesky opponents without so much as a peep of criticism from the people that they care about.

Therefore, they have every incentive to continue the war indefinitely. The Russian leadership is naive and has been naive to think otherwise.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Aug 28 2023 18:07 utc | 77

Will Schryver posted on X....

There is only one plant, in Utah, which makes the perchlorate required for solid fuel rocket propellant.

There is only one plant, in Tennessee, which makes the gunpowder essential for artillery shells.

An oil refinery in Louisiana is on fire...

Not sure of the veracity of this report, but it appears to suggest that the Louisiana refinery was being "staked out" via drone earlier this year.

How many foreign sabotage teams are currently operating on American soil? twitter.com/theinsiderpape…

So, it would seem possible, even likely, that USA difficulties in ramping up munitions production are magnified by SRGs operating within CONUS..

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 28 2023 18:51 utc | 89

Russians With An Attitude twitter post....

Russians With Attitude
@RWApodcast
·
19h
A while ago there was a rumor that the Ukrainian military had started using Air Force cadets & ground crews to bolster frontline infantry units, or even to form new infantry units; now we're getting obituaries from the Flight Academy about cadets dying in infantry combat

Same sort of thing happened in 45.... was Luftwaffe that time..

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 28 2023 18:57 utc | 90

> using Air Force cadets ... dying in infantry combat

Meanwhile Sweden or something allegedly complained they cannot teach Ukrainian pilots because those Kiev sent were too illiterate or too old (up to 71yo), basically looked like Ukrainian commanders used the opportunity to dump the junk even they considered inedible cannot fodder

Posted by: Arioch | Aug 28 2023 19:05 utc | 91

wow a 71 year old combat pilot, mind boggling.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 28 2023 19:13 utc | 92

This is spite of the fact that everyone saw it coming. Hell, bloggers on the internet saw it coming. However the Russian leadership dithered, while Ukraine continued to press on regardless of casualties.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Aug 28 2023 18:20 utc | 82

##########

Yes, the Chair Force is undefeated in Ukraine. Always prescribing the perfect decisions, always acting with confidence commensurate with their many accomplishments on Reddit and in blog comment sections.

May God preserve the Chair Force Generals and supply them with the tastiest chicken tenders in Mommy's basement.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 28 2023 19:13 utc | 93

@Sundance | Aug 28 2023 15:49 utc | 35

Russia is still selling Uranium to the USA

Citation? I think the US is more likely to buy Uranium from Kazakhstan, which supplies over 40% of the world market for the stuff.

Posted by: Cyril | Aug 28 2023 19:13 utc | 94

"Posted by: Sundance | Aug 28 2023 15:49 utc | 35"

Ukraine is still getting transit fees for Russian oil and gas pipelines crossing their territory and Ukrainian tanks run on Russian diesel fuel.

Standard oil sold oil to the Germans during WW2 ... they used to fuel up the German "milk cow" U-boat tenders off the coast of Spain that would refuel the German U-boats that attacked US shipping.

Can't let a little war get in the way of making money.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 28 2023 19:20 utc | 95

Know what occurred to me, leaving aside Prigozhin's death which I'm sure is real? Maybe the entire coup spectacle, the deal with Lukashenko, the move to Belarus, the satellite photos of the large camps being built, the day after day report of columns of equipment moving north, was actually to secretly move a large contingent of Wagner to Niger and Mali. Maybe when the French and ECOWAS get there they'll be in for a rough surprise? A Russian quagmire trap?

OK, it would be next to impossible to do without western intelligence finding out about it, maybe it's just revolutionary spirit but Niger and Mali seem pretty relaxed for poor very much under armed countries about to get stomped.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 28 2023 19:22 utc | 96

Posted by: Sundance | Aug 28 2023 15:49 utc | 35

#############

If true, that's pretty ballsy and clever of the Russians to be doing business with the USA while under the "sanctions from hell".

Acting out in a fit of rage is more of an American thing, than a Russian thing. America, for domestic political PR purposes, will start a war to maintain lies and deceptions.

Generally speaking, the Russians don't tend to need such hoaxes and polarization to create domestic unity. Culture, religion, and shared history tend to do the job. A very young nation like America doesn't have anything fundamental or orthodox (culturally) like that to rally around. Most Americans under the age of 30 barely know their own country's history. That is probably on purpose because it is easier to govern (bully) a fragmented society that distrusts their neighbors and doesn't understand the lives of their ancestors.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 28 2023 19:28 utc | 97

47
» munitions imports from North Korea and Iran «
I have yet to see any credible evidence for this continually repeated ‘assessment’

It is possible that Russia has recieved supplies from these nations. Rather than use them in Ukraine they go to the stategic reserve. This frees up more Russian ammo for use in Ukraine.
No evidence, but gives those nations deniability

Posted by: Tommy | Aug 28 2023 19:29 utc | 98

HB_Norica @ 95

Can't let a little war get in the way of making money.

Russian uranium is still available to the west, USA imports it along with Russian oil, the spent uranium I'm pretty sure goes back to Russia for preprocessing.

"The spice must flow," Frank Herbert knew exactly what he was writing about.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 28 2023 19:29 utc | 99

Let's all be happy that Russia hasn't delivered Uranium to America via hypersonic delivery.

Yet.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 28 2023 19:29 utc | 100

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