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Ukraine SitRep: The End Of The Counteroffensive
Western media have finally change course. They are now admitting that the much promoted Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed. In fact, the acknowledge that it never had a chance to win in the first place.
The Hill, the Washington Post and CNN now agree that the Ukrainian army will never achieve its aims.
That makes it difficult for the Biden administration to get Congress approval for $24 billion in additional 'aid' to Ukraine. It does not make sense to pay for a cause that is evidently lost.
The Polish President Duda has also acknowledged that the counter-offensive has failed. Relations between Warsaw and Kiev have gotten worse and Polish interests will not allow for more support or active intervention.
Nothing has come from the 'peace conference' which Saudi Arabia arranged on Ukraine's behalf.
Despite the onslaught of bad news the Ukrainian army is still trying to take Russian positions in the south and east of Ukraine. But it simply does not have enough in men and material to break through the lines.
Even if they would manage to get a local breakthrough there are not enough reserves to push for the necessary follow up. Just one of the NATO trained brigades has still been held back. All others have been mauled in their various deployment zones.
In the northeast around Kupyansk the Russians have started their own offensive which has the Ukrainians on the run. Ukraine has ordered the evacuation of the area:
A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for the Ukrainian city of Kupyansk and its surrounding areas, as Russia intensified shelling of Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region and claimed to have captured Ukrainian positions near the city on Thursday.
But Kupyansk is a Russian city and people refuse to leave.
The Russian campaign is slowly speeding up. As the Ukrainian Strana.news reports (machine translation):
Also in Ukraine, it is recorded that from Kupyansk to Bakhmut, Russia has increased the number of attacks.
"Over the past month, the total number of attacks in the Kupyansk, Limansky and Bakhmut directions has grown significantly. In July, during the week there were 6-6.5 thousand attacks, during the last week-9 thousand attacks, " – said the representative of the National Guard Ruslan Muzychuk.
According to him, the Russian Federation does not experience "shell hunger".
Aviation is also actively used, and over the past few weeks, more than 50 air attacks have been taking place every day, and sometimes more than 80.
That is bad news for the Ukrainian side which lacks the reserves to counter the Russian onslaught. There are also less weapons coming in from the West. F-16 fighter jets will be delayed for another nine months due to training issues. Tanks and other material are in short supply.
Strana also report of an interview with a knowledgeable Ukrainian soldier (machine translation):
Continuing the topic of the situation at the front, an interesting interview was given by a Ukrainian sniper fighting near Bakhmut with the call sign "Grandfather". On the air of political scientist Yuri Romanenko, he was introduced as Konstantin Proshinsky (this is a pseudonym).
The fighter spoke in detail about his vision of the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Russian army.
1. Mobilization. In his opinion, it is conducted incorrectly. Recruits are sent to the front who have never been trained, and they are often over 50 years old and with a whole bunch of diseases.
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2. No rotation. The soldier says that "the same brigades" are fighting at the front, and people are not taken out of the front line for six months or more. Whereas by Western standards, they can be kept in a war zone for no more than three months.
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3. Behavior of mid-and high-level commanders. According to Proshinsky, many of them are trying to arrange a "mini-Stalingrad" on the positions, forcing them to go into frontal assaults on well-fortified Russian positions.
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4. The Russian Army began to fight better.
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5. Proshinsky believes that Russia has not yet used much of what it has against Ukraine.
The soldier thinks that the Russians will not move from their positions and that a stalemate peace like in Korea would be the end result.
I believe that to be wrong. Russia's aim is to liberate at least the four regions that it has claimed for itself. For political reasons it can not stop before that is done.
Should the Ukraine continue to fight after that, Russia is likely to set new aims and take more land.
Posted by: whirlX | Aug 11 2023 15:01 utc | 19
Poland. Crooke on JudgeNap this week. Sentiment is changing in Poland.
~ Sometimes standing on the shore, it is difficult to decide if the tide is coming in or going out.
According to Crook, the tide has turned in Poland.
As “To The Last Ukrainian” becomes a reality rather than a meme…. Enough in Poland can see they are being seasoned to be fed next into the meat grinder.
The exuberance of taunting Russia, and salivating about a restituted Lvov, is being replaced with caution … Poland prefers to goad Russia from behind the ample buttocks of a Germany, UK or US. Finding itself standing alone, exposed to the full glare of Russian ire, is not what Poland anticipated…
And, as you say, mercs have flooded into Ukraine from the beginning.
Enough have limped back to Warsaw, war-sore. Many have not returned, and likely will never be mourned.
karlof1 | Aug 11 2023 15:17 utc | 22
As for a buffer zone. Rather than a new “iron” curtain. I’d love to see a green “curtain” …. A New Forest 100-200km wide and 1000km, making a border splitting Ukraine.
Call out the Greens … establish a master “carbon offset” tree and greenbelt project. A Green Wall you can see from space.
Posted by: Lantern Dude | Aug 11 2023 16:25 utc | 44
when did the narrative that the reason for ‘Ye Olde Counter Offensive’ was to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position first appear in the M$M?
I’m going to write “March/April 2023” on my pop quiz paper.
It was the narrative of the Spring Offensive, I believe.
~~/
>… Bribe taking recruiting agents sacked.
How shitty will you (and your family be) if you’ve paid USD10k to avoid the draft and party in Kiev, only to have your privilege papers cancelled.
…. If only there was a soft border, maybe, say with Hungary, where you could try your luck …..
Feral Finster | Aug 11 2023 20:46 utc | 131
The largest demographic cohort in Ukraine is females 60-80.
Fantastic for cottage gardens, pickling, and sustaining extended families on cabbage and salo. Great for surreptitious surveilling and secreting small weapons and valuables.
Battalions of babuskas have kept Ukraine functioning until now. Another harsh winter without fuel, heat or pensions and this completely unacknowledged cohort of social cohesion will be deceased.
To The Last Ukrainian! Whether neonate or octogenarian.
shadowloser | Aug 11 2023 19:20 utc | 107
Oskol region.
Kinda ironic the Russians are advancing here… the region they retreated from because they had it sparsely covered, and decided to trade territory for troop preservation.
Oh how the corporate media guffawed with derision at the retreating ruskies.
It was that “weakness” that had NAFO triumphalism press for western weapons and insistence Ukraine could “win”, Ukraine was “winning”
Now it’s Ukraine who has left the region with sparse defense.
And NAFO… haven’t seen much from them since “Bradley Square” became a landmark seen from space.
IMVHO the seachange in western reporting is due, not so much to the obvious failure of Ukraine (it’s been obvious for a year), but the now silencing of the NAFO internet army who bayed like banshees for Leopards, Challengers, and Patriots (and F-16s and Abrams).
Supplying these to Ukraine was a political, not military, decision.
A political decision arising from the pressure exerted by the NAFO troll factories.
When history is finally written, the role of NAFO in the absolute destruction of Ukraine must have a significant chapter.
simplex | Aug 11 2023 21:07 utc | 139
strange that Russia still doesn’t widely use cluster bombs.
Nope. A weapon has a purpose.
For USNATO right now, all they have are hammers, so every problem is a nail. (errr, cluster bomb)
U$ cluster bombs are nasty, but not delivering any wunderwaffle results.
HERMIUS | Aug 11 2023 21:13 utc | 142
Ukrainian armed forces were caught napping when it came to understanding the Russian Federation’s defence capabilities
Credit placed where credit is due. It was the USUK who underestimated the drunk, disorganised, poorly trained, lacking equipment, demoralised, human-wave-tactic using, armed only with shovels, Russian military.
Bluedog57 | Aug 11 2023 22:39 utc | 158
Stay safe.
shаdοwbanned | Aug 12 2023 3:00 utc | 200
There are two generations raised as Banderites in much of the rest of Ukraine…
Females 20-30 are so few they could qualify for “endangered species” status.
Males 15-40? We will discover in 2-3 years after the end of meatgrinding what numbers remain.
The largest cohort of Ukrainians is females 60-80.
Give it 5 years … demographics are destiny. Ukraine is about to experience further cataclysmic population decline.
unimperator | Aug 12 2023 6:55 utc | 215
One more extreme winter and the largest population cohort in Ukraine _ women aged 60-80 _ will experience significant die-off.
No-one will really notice, as old women don’t really excite much interest, demographic or otherwise.
But without babuskas holding the villages together, and knitting the social fabric.. what is “Ukraine” will rapidly fade from memory.
The bloodied and broken men of Ukraine will hobble home, but there won’t be babuska to turn a turnip and cabbage into a warm, nourishing meal.
Rural and regional Ukraine will be a cold, empty, desolate, destroyed wasteland. Anyone under 50 will flock to the cities for what few jobs exist.
And most will flee further to foreign soils.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 12 2023 7:27 utc | 215
Bienvenue à l’Espéranto Langue Éthique ! 2023-24
₪☼₪☼₪☼₪
Il aura fallu de la patience pour finaliser cette collection, cette vaste problématique des langues auxiliaires en général et de l’espéranto tout particulièrement. Sans que cela puisse être exhaustif, une alchimie s’est construite à partir de cette vision de Langue éthique, inscrite dans un contexte de Géostratégie et dans une perspective de Réciprocité ! Et c’est avec l’Afrique que le cheminement entre en phase avec une actualité qui ne cesse de répandre ses feux, comme un galop difficile à anticiper qui menace d’emballement.
Pour qui désespère de tout et de rien, inutile de voir au pire autre chose qu’une vielle utopie dont on aurait épuisé en vain tous les potentiels logiques, sans chercher plus loin. Une langue pour tous ? N’y pensez pas ! Voyez les chiffres arabes 0 à 9, venus d’Inde au IV° siècle, légués aux arabo-musulmans au VIII°, et proposés à l’Occident au X°. Refus catégorique, on ne déroge pas. Quelle raison à posteriori peut justifier les 5 siècles d’attente qui privent l’Europe de ce trésor, jusqu’à ce que la Renaissance vienne enfin à s’en intéresser ?
En sourire ? Comme de l’obscurantisme et du cortège des souffrances qui en sont la conséquence ? Histoire de rendre illisibles les causes réelles de cet état de fait ? Arguments et thèses savantes à l’appui ! On trouve dans ce dossier les repères utiles pour s’en faire une idée, non pas sur le versant grammatical et lexical, mille fois éprouvé, mais côté économie politique. Car l’objectif est d’aider à vivre sans mythifier pour autant. Mais l’enthousiasme que génère ce projet dynamique ne peut être ignoré et exprime sa nécessité.
Par contre et sans naïveté, il s’agit de faire face au contempteur qui feint d’ignorer les principes d’altérité et de réciprocité inscrite en lettre de feu dans la psyché humaine. Cette recherche de langue commune, vieille comme le monde en vérité a été maintes fois usitée, mais c’est au cours de l’histoire récente qu’elle s’est intellectualisée, pour culminer au XIX°. L’Espéranto est né ainsi, parmi des centaines d’essais, dans la pensée et par l’émoi d’un enfant, là où tant d’autres érudits ont failli à face à ce défi périlleux et incertain !
La rapidité avec laquelle s’est ensuite répandu cette incroyable résolution, est à la fois signe et témoignage d’un génie qui émerge dans la société des hommes à la manière d’un mythe grec. Alors pourquoi autant de résistance stérile à frustrer les simples humains d’une connaissance digne d’intelligence innée, et privilégier les armes terrifiantes comme les haines aveugles. La guerre serait bienvenue et la bonté naturelle exclue ? Qui sont ceux qui justifient la peine qui accable tous nos semblables mais savent l’éviter pour eux-mêmes ?
Comme si une sorte de malédiction donnait à penser que la souffrance est fatale, et le bon sens une ineptie ! Par conséquent il serait normal de s’en rendre complice par sujétion ou suggestion, il serait juste de voir la liberté humaine sans l’esprit de responsabilité ! Pourtant un enfant peut savoir cela par simple pure intuition ! Nous sommes illusionnés par la perfidie d’un esprit pauvre, et victimes du consentement que l’on concède. Ni plus ni moins, car en réalité tout se tient dans cet espace infinitésimal qu’on nomme innocemment destin.
Il y a donc bien une constante immédiate à vivre cette destinée, qui réside dans un concept d’éternité comme paradigme logique d’un véritable sens oublié et perdu. Justement sur ce registre, sur cette gamme, la portée d’harmonie d’une langue auxiliaire, commune, neutre, éthique, fédérale, relève de ce bon sens. L’aune 2023 et l’aube 2024, en sont les vecteurs. Le petit Zamenhof donnait vie à un rêve insondable, la grande Afrique peut désormais le faire exister, face aux Nations et aux États qui en observeront l’avènement !
Penser le monde, exprimer ses possibles et en construire les réalités, relève d’une œuvre assez commune. À condition d’en saisir les lois géostratégiques d’économie politique et les objectifs de réciprocités évolutives. Il reste à créer la synergie collective des élans personnels, pour résoudre les paradoxes qui hypothèquent encore l’instauration inéluctable d’un projet qui attend de se révéler, au moment décisif, de toute évidence ! Ayons à cœur de penser favorablement à cette vision, n’était-ce que par défaut d’espérance en ce monde ?
C’est aussi le moment parfait pour la France de re-susciter le plan Espéranto de la SDN de 1922,
de faire amende honorable, de rendre à l’Afrique à l’Europe et au Monde, la dignité et la confiance !
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Savoya Vivê – Initiatives Diplomatiques // @Ky Chambéry – 7 août 2023
Image en ligne
Posted by: Kristina | Aug 12 2023 12:50 utc | 258
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