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Ukraine SitRep: Chernihiv Drone Exhibition – Russian Offensive
This morning at around 10:00 local time a Russian missile hit the drama theater in Chernihiv, some 150 kilometer north of Kiev:
"Five people died," Ukrainian Interior Minister Igor Klymenko said about the Chernihiv attack on Telegram. "Thirty-seven people were wounded, including 11 children."
Zelensky said the attack hit "in the center of the city" in a square that houses a "polytechnic university, a theatre".
"An ordinary Saturday, which Russia turned into a day of pain and loss," the Ukrainian leader said after he had arrived in Sweden.
He posted a video from the scene that showed debris around a large Soviet-era building, with parked cars around it that were partially destroyed, with smashed roofs and windows blown out.
AFP reporters saw fire trucks outside the Taras Shevchenko Drama Theatre and Music Academy, which suffered some damage.
The Ukrainian news site Strana reported that the missile hit a conference and exhibition about drones (machine translation):
13:54 There was a comment from the organizer of the drone exhibition at the Chernihiv Drama Theater, which was the target of a Russian strike.
Recall that after the strike, it turned out that the announcement of the exhibition was published in advance. Because of this, the organizers of the exhibition in social networks were accused of actually pointing the missiles themselves, revealing information about the event in advance.
The organizer of the exhibition, a well-known volunteer Maria Berlinskaya, denies the charges. She says that information about the specific venue was not publicly available, and it was sent to participants a few hours before the start of the exhibition. She also says that as soon as the air raid alert started, the exhibition was stopped.
At the same time, judging from the message of Berlinskaya, some of the participants of the exhibition suffered from the impact, as after the alarm was announced, they went not to the shelter, but to the street.
This week the Ukrainian army committed its last reserve brigade with western equipment to its counter-offensive. It will get ground up just like the forces it is replacing. The furthest the counter-offensive has gone in total was in the south of Orkiv where it progressed some 12 kilometer. It took more than 72 days, and many losses of men and material, to get that far. Tokmak, an important traffic center that Ukraine would like to take, is still 12 kilometer away. It is also protected by several well build defensive lines which the Ukrainian forces will be unable to cross.
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On the second axis of the counter-offensive, south of Velyka Novosilka, the maximum progress is some 6 to 8 kilometer. Several small villages, now destroyed, were captured along the way. The number of lives lost during the fight is much bigger than the number of inhabitants those villages previously had.
The aim of the counter-offensive was to reach the Azov Sea or, if that was not possible, to go far enough to get all southern roads under artillery fire. The distance from the frontline to the sea as of June 5 was 100 kilometer. There are still 88 kilometer to go. But time is running out and all reserves have been committed.
Over the last week the Russian Defense Ministry reported on average 770 Ukrainian frontline casualties per day. The Ukrainian counter-offensive will likely culminate next week. It has reached is maximum potential and will now peter out.
That is the moment when the Russian army will go on the offensive. A sure sign of this was last night's visit of President Putin to Rostov-on-Don from where the 'special military operation' is controlled. General Gerasimov, the leader of the Russian military, and others briefed Putin about their plans.
I have no idea where or how large the Russian offensive will be, but two days ago the Belorussian President Lukashenko gave a hint of its potential size:
COMBATE |🇵🇷 – @upholdreality – 21:56 UTC · Aug 17, 2023
LUKASHENKO to Ukrainian reporter: "Your counteroffensive cost 45,000 people in dead and maimed. 45,000!.. Your losses are 1 to 8 at the frontline. And [Russia has] 250,000 people in reserve with cutting-edge hardware. You will be crushed… and the Poles rub their hands in glee. Pushed by the Americans, they will cut off the western regions… You have to take your head into your hands and act on the basis of reality. Act in the interests of this huge and beautiful territory."
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Here is a longer version of the Lukashenko video with close captioning and the complete interview which unfortunately has no close captioning.
“Do you believe that some in the government lied to get us into the second Iraq War?” as well.
Posted by: Roland | Aug 19 2023 20:43 utc | 89
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Roland, you made some very good points, but I do not give the US an out for the first Iraq war and the Iraq invasion of Kuwait. The Bush Sr. Administration lied to get the US involved in that as well. Saddam would never have entered into Kuwait without the permission of the President of the United States. See the transcript below.
APRIL GLASPIE TRANSCRIPT
Yes, remember April Glaspie and her amazing stint at Middle East diplomacy?
Saddam-Glaspie meeting
Transcript of Meeting Between Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie. – July 25, 1990 (Eight days before the August 2, 1990 Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait)
July 25, 1990 – Presidential Palace – Baghdad
U.S. Ambassador Glaspie – I have direct instructions from President Bush to improve our relations with Iraq. We have considerable sympathy for your quest for higher oil prices, the immediate cause of your confrontation with Kuwait. (pause) As you know, I lived here for years and admire your extraordinary efforts to rebuild your country. We know you need funds. We understand that, and our opinion is that you should have the opportunity to rebuild your country. (pause) We can see that you have deployed massive numbers of troops in the south. Normally that would be none of our business, but when this happens in the context of your threat s against Kuwait, then it would be reasonable for us to be concerned. For this reason, I have received an instruction to ask you, in the spirit of friendship – not confrontation – regarding your intentions: Why are your troops massed so very close to Kuwait’s borders?
Saddam Hussein – As you know, for years now I have made every effort to reach a settlement on our dispute with Kuwait. There is to be a meeting in two days; I am prepared to give negotiations only this one more brief chance. (pause) When we (the Iraqis) meet (with the Kuwaitis) and we see there is hope, then nothing will happen. But if we are unable to find a solution, then it will be natural that Iraq will not accept death.
U.S. Ambassador Glaspie – What solutions would be acceptab le?
Saddam Hussein – If we could keep the whole of the Shatt al Arab – our strategic goal in our war with Iran – we will make concessions (to the Kuwaitis). But, if we are forced to choose between keeping half of the Shatt and the whole of Iraq (i.e., in Saddam s view, including Kuwait ) then we will give up all of the Shatt to defend our claims on Kuwait to keep the whole of Iraq in the shape we wish it to be. (pause) What is the United States’ opinion on this?
U.S. Ambassador Glaspie – We have no opinion on your Arab – Arab conflicts, such as your dispute with Kuwait. Secretary (of State James) Baker has directed me to emphasize the instruction, first given to Iraq in the 1960’s, that the Kuwait issue is not associated with America. (Saddam smiles)
On August 2, 1990, Saddam’s massed troops invade and occupy Kuwait. _____
Baghdad, September 2, 1990, U.S. Embassy
One month later, British journalists obtain the the above tape and transcript of the Saddam – Glaspie meeting of July 29, 1990. Astounded, they confront Ms. Glaspie as she leaves the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.
Journalist 1 – Are the transcripts (holding them up) correct, Madam Ambassador?(Ambassador Glaspie does not respond)
Journalist 2 – You knew Saddam was going to invade (Kuwait ) but you didn’t warn him not to. You didn’t tell him America would defend Kuwait. You told him the opposite – that America was not associated with Kuwait.
Journalist 1 – You encouraged this aggression – his invasi on. What were you thinking?
U.S. Ambassador Glaspie – Obviously, I didn’t think, and nobody else did, that the Iraqis were going to take all of Kuwait.
Journalist 1 – You thought he was just going to take some of it? But, how could you? Saddam told you that, if negotiations failed , he would give up his Iran (Shatt al Arab waterway) goal for the Whole of Iraq, in the shape we wish it to be. You know that includes Kuwait, which the Iraqis have always viewed as an historic part of their country!
Journalist 1 – American green-lighted the invasion. At a minimum, you admit signaling Saddam that some aggression was okay – that the U.S. would not oppose a grab of the al-Rumeilah oil field, the disputed border strip and the Gulf Islands (including Bubiyan) – the territories claimed by Iraq?
(Ambassador Glaspie says nothing as a limousine door closed behind her and the car drives off.)
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To the best of our knowledge, the text on this page may be freely reproduced and distributed. Information last updated on: 02/09/96
https://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/ARTICLE5/april.html
Posted by: Ed | Aug 19 2023 22:48 utc | 119
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