Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 19, 2023

Ukraine SitRep: Chernihiv Drone Exhibition - Russian Offensive

This morning at around 10:00 local time a Russian missile hit the drama theater in Chernihiv, some 150 kilometer north of Kiev:

"Five people died," Ukrainian Interior Minister Igor Klymenko said about the Chernihiv attack on Telegram. "Thirty-seven people were wounded, including 11 children."

Zelensky said the attack hit "in the center of the city" in a square that houses a "polytechnic university, a theatre".

"An ordinary Saturday, which Russia turned into a day of pain and loss," the Ukrainian leader said after he had arrived in Sweden.

He posted a video from the scene that showed debris around a large Soviet-era building, with parked cars around it that were partially destroyed, with smashed roofs and windows blown out.

AFP reporters saw fire trucks outside the Taras Shevchenko Drama Theatre and Music Academy, which suffered some damage.

The Ukrainian news site Strana reported that the missile hit a conference and exhibition about drones (machine translation):

13:54 There was a comment from the organizer of the drone exhibition at the Chernihiv Drama Theater, which was the target of a Russian strike.

Recall that after the strike, it turned out that the announcement of the exhibition was published in advance. Because of this, the organizers of the exhibition in social networks were accused of actually pointing the missiles themselves, revealing information about the event in advance.

The organizer of the exhibition, a well-known volunteer Maria Berlinskaya, denies the charges. She says that information about the specific venue was not publicly available, and it was sent to participants a few hours before the start of the exhibition. She also says that as soon as the air raid alert started, the exhibition was stopped.

At the same time, judging from the message of Berlinskaya, some of the participants of the exhibition suffered from the impact, as after the alarm was announced, they went not to the shelter, but to the street.

This week the Ukrainian army committed its last reserve brigade with western equipment to its counter-offensive. It will get ground up just like the forces it is replacing. The furthest the counter-offensive has gone in total was in the south of Orkiv where it progressed some 12 kilometer. It took more than 72 days, and many losses of men and material, to get that far. Tokmak, an important traffic center that Ukraine would like to take, is still 12 kilometer away. It is also protected by several well build defensive lines which the Ukrainian forces will be unable to cross.


bigger

On the second axis of the counter-offensive, south of Velyka Novosilka, the maximum progress is some 6 to 8 kilometer. Several small villages, now destroyed, were captured along the way. The number of lives lost during the fight is much bigger than the number of inhabitants those villages previously had.

The aim of the counter-offensive was to reach the Azov Sea or, if that was not possible, to go far enough to get all southern roads under artillery fire. The distance from the frontline to the sea as of June 5 was 100 kilometer. There are still 88 kilometer to go. But time is running out and all reserves have been committed.

Over the last week the Russian Defense Ministry reported on average 770 Ukrainian frontline casualties per day. The Ukrainian counter-offensive will likely culminate next week. It has reached is maximum potential and will now peter out.

That is the moment when the Russian army will go on the offensive. A sure sign of this was last night's visit of President Putin to Rostov-on-Don from where the 'special military operation' is controlled. General Gerasimov, the leader of the Russian military, and others briefed Putin about their plans.

I have no idea where or how large the Russian offensive will be, but two days ago the Belorussian President Lukashenko gave a hint of its potential size:

COMBATE |🇵🇷 - @upholdreality - 21:56 UTC · Aug 17, 2023

LUKASHENKO to Ukrainian reporter: "Your counteroffensive cost 45,000 people in dead and maimed. 45,000!.. Your losses are 1 to 8 at the frontline. And [Russia has] 250,000 people in reserve with cutting-edge hardware. You will be crushed... and the Poles rub their hands in glee. Pushed by the Americans, they will cut off the western regions... You have to take your head into your hands and act on the basis of reality. Act in the interests of this huge and beautiful territory."
video

Here is a longer version of the Lukashenko video with close captioning and the complete interview which unfortunately has no close captioning.

Posted by b on August 19, 2023 at 14:45 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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you do have to admire the neocon dedication to getting the ukraine to fight to the last ukrainian, seems to be going well in that area

Posted by: leaf | Aug 19 2023 14:56 utc | 1

What have the western globalists brought you Ukraine? What will be left of your families and country by the time you realize you would be far better off in the Russian Federation?

Posted by: Fred777 | Aug 19 2023 14:59 utc | 2

In really serious news, a drone hit the Tu-22M3 base in Soltsy in Novgorod.

And it looks like at least one plane is damaged.

This is strike #4 on the strategic forces.

It is claimed it was a quadcopter too, i.e. launched from inside Russia. Which once again raises the question why US bases in Europe and the US itself are not having their planes destroyed one by one the same way -- it is trivial to arrange, and there is just as much plausible deniability involved

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 19 2023 15:01 utc | 3

What's clear is that Ukraine and Nato have all been defeated

Posted by: Sam Vandenberg | Aug 19 2023 15:01 utc | 4

We cannot celebrate yet. Ukrainian army is still very strong. The number of losses is unimportant, as Ukrainian society and families accept deaths of their sons without protest.
Furthermore The west is ready and eager to escalate.

I think that the best strategy for Russia is destruction of 750 KV electrical network of Ukraina. No lives lost but huge impact.

Posted by: simplex | Aug 19 2023 15:11 utc | 5

Ukraine Weekly Summary - May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-1d1

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Aug 19 2023 15:13 utc | 6

Still no sign of the Challengers turning up at the front though the Strykers of the 82nd Brigade have already begun to be destroyed.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 19 2023 15:14 utc | 7

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 19 2023 15:01 utc | 3

Which once again raises the question why US bases in Europe and the US itself are not having their planes destroyed one by one the same way -- it is trivial to arrange, and there is just as much plausible deniability involved
Oh yeah of course. It's easy to beat hawthorns with someone else's dick.

Posted by: hopehely | Aug 19 2023 15:20 utc | 8

The future looks bleak for the West, any rationale person would have given up already but not the neo-cons... Tragic!

Posted by: AI | Aug 19 2023 15:22 utc | 9

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 19 2023 15:01 utc | 3
Which once again raises the question why US bases in Europe and the US itself are not having their planes destroyed one by one the same way.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You are persistent if not obsessive, but the question has been answered numerous times in these spaces.

Consider abstinence for a while?

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 19 2023 15:28 utc | 10

I just hope that Taiwanese people are paying attention and will vote accordingly next year: do they want to play the role of Ukraine in Asia with all its obvious "benefits" as displayed here or do they want to go back to the don't ask, don't tell status-quo with the mainland?

Ukraine has really been a good object lesson of the benefits of being the "west's" client state when faced with an actual strong neighbor.

Posted by: Caliman | Aug 19 2023 15:31 utc | 11

The Russian counter-offensive (after the UkraNazi one is finished) still looks to me like a myth. The fact that Lukashenko hints at it, just makes me even more skepital.

It reminds me of Serbia's President last year saying that Russia was going to propose a peace plan and, if not accepted, then Putin would unleash hell.

It's been almost a year since those words and the only hell I see is in the lives of Ukrainian civilians near front lines and near Russian missile targets, and in the lives of Russian civilians in the border of several Russian oblasts like Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod, but also in Lugansk, Donetsk, and Crimea.

What kind of "plan" is this? An old man cleaning the street in Rostov-on-Don said it all, full of sarcasm, during the Wagner thing (insurrection? protest?):
"it's all according to plan".

What plan? No one knows. But whatever happens, it's according to that "plan". If Moscow suffers drone attacks, "it's according to plan". If UkraNazis daily shell Donetsk city, "it's according to plan", if UkraNazis dladvance 0, 6, 12, or more Km, it doesn't matter the distance, "it's all according to plan", etc.

So now my attitude towards the 100% provoked and very justified Russian military intervention is to wait and see.
All attempts to predict the future events are a waste of time.

How can Russia make a counter-offensive with quick and deep movements, if even yesterday a Ka-52 was shot down by a Manpad near the frontline, on the Russian side?
What is the Russian stash of "wonder weapons" that Lukashenko is talking about?
Where are (and doing what) those 250 thousand reserves?
How can Russia reach Kherson again if they're not even able to defeat the UkraNazi tiny bridgehead near the Antonovsky bridge in one of the Dniepr's islands supposedly controlled by Russia?

And the billion Ruble question: what's the rationale in having allegedly 1-8 casualty ratio (= +5 thousand Russian casualties only during this UkraNazi counteroffensive) and keep waiting for more waves of western military aid, instead of making a real siege of Kiev and attacks at the decision centers in order to overthrow the UkraNazi regime and end this thing?
Are a few photos of a dozen burned Leopards worth all of those Russian casualties?
How many more will be worth just to see 1 or 2 Challengers burn? And a Patriot launcher? And then a few Abrams? And then maybe a dozen F16?

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Aug 19 2023 15:32 utc | 12

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 19 2023 15:01 utc | 3

How about using your favourite weapon for the retaliatory strike, the tactical nuke, you could claim it was a ‘broken arrow’ and I’m sure it wouldn’t escalate the conflict one bit. The question surely is, why do you keep on proposing courses of action that either expose Russian military forces to unnecessary risk, or would throw Ukraine a lifeline by triggering article 5?

Posted by: Milites | Aug 19 2023 15:35 utc | 13

Where is Russia's SMO going now?

With the Ukrainian offensive failing, there is now some speculation that Russia will soon launch their own BIG offensive.

Weeb Union is saying the new Russian offensive will begin with Wagner. If he is correct, it may be worthwhile to focus on what Wagner may be up to. Dima at Military Summary is saying the recent Putin meeting at Rostov-On-Don is indicative of a coming major Russian offensive.

When you don't know what is coming, it is a good idea to figure out what you do know. Below are some knowns:

1. The Russians have pretty well slowed or stopped the Ukrainian offensive which started on June 4, 2023. The Russian strategy of "active defense" has proved to worked well to stop and to neutralize the AFU's offensive. Ukraine has taken very little territory in their recent offensive and is far away from advancing to the Sea of Azov which was one of the major objectives.

2. The Ukrainians have lost a lot of troops and equipment in their recent offensive. I don't know how well the AFU can recover from its loses. I have heard that the last of Ukraine's reserve brigades are now in the fight along the zero line. If this is the case, it does not look good for Ukraine's recent offensive.

3. It seems like the Russians would want to soon advance to take advantage of a weakened AFU after grinding up a large portion of their latest offensive. However, in the last 13 months, the Russians have not advanced that much along the zero line. In fact, they have lost a lot of territory in Kharkiv and Kherson. Overall, the zero line has been pretty much a stalemate for both sides this year of 2023.

4. The only significant Russian advances that occurred this year were the Wagner forces taking Bakhmut in May 2023. Yet, there appears to be conflict between Shoigu and Prigozhin. I have no idea what is really going on in this conflict. Maybe their conflict was all a ruse, maybe not.

5. I think Shoigu is good at developing improved and new weapon systems for the RF's military. I don't know if he is that good at carrying out a major offense against Ukraine. It appears that he may have a problem dealing with his more aggressive lower command which make the better offensive commanders. This is a common problem for upper command that don't have direct combat experience.

6. We are on the 542nd day of Russia's SMO. It would seem that Russia would want to take some significant territory before the autumn rains come to Ukraine towards late November. If the Russians are going to do anything along the zero line of significance this year, the time is running short for them. They have around 3 months left this year before the rains come. The resultant mud will bog down either the Russian or the Ukrainian heavy military equipment. This is a bad situation to be in with all those drones flying around looking for your tanks and other heavy equipment.

Projections on what will happen and when it is going to happen is pure speculation that may or may not wind up being correct.

Meanwhile, the speculators will run rampart. As they do, I will go back to what is at least somewhat certain to see if a certain prediction has some basis on what is known.

Posted by: young | Aug 19 2023 15:35 utc | 14

I sometimes read Daily Kos just to get another viewpoint. The recent Ukraine opinion:

The story begins with the intelligence report, claiming that U.S. intelligence doesn’t believe Ukraine can reach Melitopol, which is on the Azov Sea, thus severing the “land bridge” connecting Crimea to mainland Russia. That’s one of Vladimir Putin’s key invasion goals, and the only one his forces have managed to accomplish to this day.
The story begins so grimly: “Ukraine won’t reach Melitopol.” Then it says that actually, they’ll get within several miles” of Melitopol. That’s … not grim at all!
If Ukraine punches their way 47 miles out from Robotyne (which they still haven’t secured) through three major defensive lines and end up a few miles away from Meltipol, the counteroffensive will have been a rousing success. Just look at the map!
Remember, the entire point of this counteroffensive is to sever the land bridge. Let’s say Ukraine gets down to Myrne, north of Melitopol. That’s an 8-kilometer drive from Melitopol, or around 5 miles. It’s also 8 kilometers, as the crow flies, to the M14 highway, the only road connecting the city to mainland Russia in the eastward direction. All other roads in that direction will have already been cut off by the Ukrainian advance.
Eight kilometers is well within tube artillery and drone range. Ukraine can severely limit Russia’s ability to supply the city from that direction. . .here

. . . b covers that nicely (as usual):
". . .The aim of the counter-offensive was to reach the Azov Sea or, if that was not possible, to go far enough to get all southern roads under artillery fire. The distance from the frontline to the sea as of June 5 was 100 kilometer. There are still 88 kilometer to go. But time is running out and all reserves have been committed. . ."

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 19 2023 15:35 utc | 15

I was thinking about the coming offensive after reading one of Karloff's articles recently.

My feeling is that Russia will push to the Dneiper and close off east Ukraine and the Black Sea completely behind defensive lines similar to those that claim hundreds of Ukie lives today.

Imperialism won't allow any treaty, so despite the crushing losses, the Ukies will accept an psuedo armistice for some time to lick their wounds while plotting some new offensive. There will be continued efforts by the Ukies to break the new lines, but they will be dealt with as they are now.

After that I see another long pause to allow Russia to consolidate the gains and fully incorporate the territory won.

Russia is in no hurry. It's ready for the long haul and developing a closer partnership with China which will mature much more easily with an armistice in Ukraine. This will give them time to collectively prepare an end game strategy of defeating US imperialism in Europe while watching the west deteriorate in unpredictable ways.

The west on the other hand is just hanging off a cliff. If it remains on that trajectory, which is likely, it's just a matter of time before it fatally weakens itself.

Russia can chase the dying animal to the Atlantic and risk injury and fatigue or it can simply let it slink away and die, then collect the prize with less hassle.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 19 2023 15:44 utc | 16

Chernihiv Drone Exhibition?

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 19 2023 15:44 utc | 17

On the night of 18 August, the “international domain name registry” blocked southfront.org without any warning or explanation. Despite the fact that this organisation has been formally independent since 1998, it is actually controlled by the US Department of Commerce. What they have done is an unprecedented action in the history of modern information society. This is the American way of democracy, freedom of speech and the rule of law.

Dear Friends, the SF Team appeals to you

Through 10 years of its work, SouthFront Team has repeatedly faced blatant acts of censorship from those who seek to take down really independent media and suppress the truth.

However, on August 18, we experienced something never seen before. The domain of our website, southfront.org, was taken down (domain delegation was removed) on the international level without any advance notice and explanation.

Apparently, the removal of SouthFront from YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other mainstream social media, the blocking of accounts and years-long discrimination campaign against our Team, including summoning our volunteers for interrogation by the FBI, have not achieved results expected by instigators of these censorship acts. Therefore, they have turned to desperate moves like this.

In light of this situation, SouthFront Team wants to thank to our fan club in the White House and among the globalist elites for such high recognition of our work.

We also wish to bring good news to employers of numerous offices of state and state-affiliated entities assigned to fight SouthFront. Your well-paid jobs are secure because we are not going to stop our work even in conditions of such unprecedented pressure. Unlike you, ordinary budget-suckers and turncoats, we do what we do at the bidding of our hearts.

The dogs bark, but the caravans move on.

southfront.press is our official domain now. We are glad to see our old followers and new readers here

Posted by: UWDude | Aug 19 2023 15:44 utc | 18

@ shаdοwbanned | Aug 19 2023 15:01

I would think US bases in Europe would be easier. You'd be doing the Europeans a favor, too. I'm sure if Europe ever had a referendum on whether or not to have US bases on their soil, most workers would vote not. The same goes for nukes. I don't know, shadow. Even if there were a referendum decision to rid Europe of US bases, the elites wouldn't follow thru. Ever since the UK vote to leave the EU, the British ruling class have done everything they can to tie the UK to other transnational blocs. What needs to happen is for British workers to assert themselves and demand a non-aligned Britain with NATO gone.

Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 19 2023 15:47 utc | 19

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Aug 19 2023 15:32 utc | 12

I guess the key is sustainability. IF you have 8:1 casualty advantage, then it simply means winning on that (large) margin, which is admittedly unprecedented. It means RU will be in a significantly better position to launch some offensive if/when they choose, and AFU will be in that much worse position to defend against it.

I doubt rushing to Kiev would make things better, just even more costly. Since sieging a single large city in the middle of nowhere doesn't constitute winning, per se.

OKH has been trying to convince Zelensky to abandon attacks and especially the plans to force Dnepr river (RU MOD claimed they destroyed a group of over 100 people trying to force a crossing), but Ze knows the only game in town to play is offensive, which determines the amount of foreign contributions, and Benjamin's in the secret bank accounts.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 19 2023 15:49 utc | 20

thanks b... i can't see a counter offensive myself... maybe something along @ Ahenobarbus | Aug 19 2023 15:44 utc | 16, but even that i am not sure.. i guess i am with @ Carlos Marques | Aug 19 2023 15:32 utc | 12

@ simplex | Aug 19 2023 15:11 utc | 5

i agree with you.. thanks for your reasonable post in an unreasonable reality here..

Posted by: james | Aug 19 2023 15:50 utc | 21

Keep up the good fight.

Posted by: UWDude | Aug 19 2023 15:44 utc | 18

Thanks b I have no idea what's next but I do believe Russia will head toward Odessa.

Posted by: jo6pac | Aug 19 2023 15:54 utc | 22

Chernihiv Drone Exhibition?

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 19 2023 15:44 utc | 17

I rather think b's headline is perfect.

That exhibition is done.

Posted by: too scents | Aug 19 2023 15:59 utc | 23

Posted by: AI | Aug 19 2023 15:22 utc | 9

The future looks bleak for the West, any rationale person would have given up already but not the neo-cons... Tragic!

RESPONSE: From the neocon perspective what they are doing is rational. The USA must take down the RF. Otherwise, the world reserve status of the United States Dollar (USD) is significantly threatened by Russia and its allies.

If the USA does not take down the RF, the USD will quickly lose its value as more countries de-dollarize their transactions.

What do you think the actual value of the dollar would be it it did not have reserve currency status?

I am not saying the USA nor the neocons will win against Russia. But, I do understand the very difficult situation the USA is now in.

The USA is in a snare. And it can't get out. The hunter (Russia) will soon check his traps. Any animal caught therein is in BIG danger.

AI, you are definitely seeing it correct when you write, "The future looks bleak for the West ..... Tragic!"

Posted by: young | Aug 19 2023 16:06 utc | 24

If the Russians do launch an offensive the question will be when:

1. Whilst the Ukrainians still have offensive momentum in the South

2. The moment equilibrium is reached on the Southern frontline

3. After the Russians gain momentum in the South

My guess would be the point of definite slippage between 1 and 2. That way Ukrainian troops are still in an offensive posture and any schemes of defence are nascent.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 19 2023 16:07 utc | 25

Was "Done Exhibition" a typo or a pun? After Iskander visit, the exhibition is indeed done.

Posted by: aquadraht | Aug 19 2023 16:12 utc | 26

I suppose, part of any capitulation, peace deal etc. pp. will be the request for referenda in all areas of the remaining UA concerning the position of their citizens, which country they want to belong to (RU, UA, SK, HU, RO, BY). Odessa among others will vote RU. Rebuilt Mariupol being the mayor advertisement.
No need to take Odessa by force and destroying it.

And RU do not want disloyal citizens. Such votes will serve that purpose too.

Posted by: BG13 | Aug 19 2023 16:18 utc | 27

The exhibition in Chernigov was a military and MIC representaives' event. There was an invitation where military men were urged to come in civilian clothes not to arouse attention to the event. https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/28637

Obviously, something went wrong.

Posted by: aquadraht | Aug 19 2023 16:27 utc | 28

Don Bacon @15

I too have looked at Kos recently to get a feel for what Democrats are thinking.

What I came away with was the articles are written by interns or subcontractors. The comments all follow the same style manual, suggesting they are bots. In ay case the range of opinion is about an inch wide and a millimeter deep. Russians need to die because they are Russian is all anyone has to say.

Someone thinks it is still a good idea to pretend there is a popular base for the Biden administration and the Democratic Party. There is not.

Posted by: oldhippie | Aug 19 2023 16:47 utc | 29

It was

an ordinary Saturday

in Ukraine,

Zelensky said,

from Sweden.

Posted by: john | Aug 19 2023 16:51 utc | 30

will be the request for referenda in all areas of the remaining UA
Posted by: BG13 | Aug 19 2023 16:18 utc | 27

Previous referendum wasn't recognized by UN or anyone else. With Crimea is the same. Let's not forget the amateurs retreated right after the referendum and almost a year later they are not going back. I wouldn't let anyone else vote now, the wrong message was sent and nothing can fix it. US doesn't risk votes, not even in their own country.

Posted by: rk | Aug 19 2023 16:51 utc | 31

Sorry to crash the party, but I seriously doubt that a large Russian “big arrow” offensive will take place anywhere in the near future. At the beginning of the year there was much talking about a big Russian winter offensive, intensified after Shoigu appointed Gerasimov as overall commander in Ukraine. Many believed this was a sign that such an offensive was imminent as Gerasimov wanted to see his name associated with this campaign in history books. However – nothing happened. Russia just continued to pile up and train its forces, fortified its positions, and depleted the Ukrainian forces and their Western mercs. And it was the right thing to do so.

Russia is – we should not forget about that – a country which still is dominated by neoliberal economic thinking, even after Putin adjusted some of the gears. They calculate and plan on a moneysaving basis and therefore try to avoid high costs and losses. This was one of the main reasons that Putin did not give the green light to take Donbass already in 2014 – he did not want to have to incorporate a declining, deficient region – or even to attack further parts of Ukraine (especially the territories of New Russia) as these regions were even worse off than Donbass. It was also the reason that Russia did not intervene with full force or after full mobilisation last year as such operations are extremely costly. They hoped to enforce the terms of Minsk II by bringing Zelensky to the bargaining table with a show of force and en passant dismantle the Nazi problem in Ukraine. The plan could have worked if the Empire at all costs and their puppets Biden, Johnson etc. would not have intervened, opened their armouries, and scraped the Istanbul deal.

As of today, the Ukrainian army has suffered tremendously, but it is still operational and far from fully depleted. It still has reserves and options (extreme mobilisation, rebuild the Volkssturm of every man they can catch and unfortunately there is enough expendable Ukrainian “meat” left), Western weapons and ammo still come in, and Russia still needs more troops, the additional 250 000 mentioned by Lukashenko are clearly not enough to finish off Ukraine. To go all in now would therefore be an extremely unwise thing to do and also very costly. It will take several more months and more shaping operations (f.i. destroy / disrupt electricity as @simplex wrote, hit more transport hubs, wear off more enemy brigades...) before Russia can and will launch their true counter.

A more reasonable explaining for Putin's visit in my opinion is his wish to inspect troops. He wants get an idea about status, mood, and needs of the forces committed and also hear the opinions of the commanders in field, especially after the one-day Wagner revolt. A couple of months ago, Putin started to inspect the forces more often and he is right in doing so. Regarding Lukashenkos statements in the current interview – they probably are another form of maskirovka or simply playing around, just remember him last year showing the alleged aims of the intervention on a flip chart. So if the Russians launch or expand an operation, then it will be a shorter, tactical one, for example to shape grounds in Kharkov (retake Kupyansk, Izium) to prepare favourable conditions for the real campaigning in the future.

Of course just my two cents and I am neither in Rostov nor in the field. Simplicius76 in his blog (https://simplicius76.substack.com/) has analysed the pro and con of an early operation in detail and he also expects it to take place only in or after the winter.

Posted by: Seneschal | Aug 19 2023 16:53 utc | 32

I'd forgotten how over the top Markos at Daily Kos always is. But, to be fair, Ukraine took an awful beating in the US press this week (their most important battle front), with critical articles and details leaked to almost every major news organization. Markos needed to do something to try to push back. I'm sure his demand for "thousands of Bradleys" will happen any day now.

Posted by: Bob | Aug 19 2023 16:55 utc | 33

Doctorow posted the other day that Russian tv had said the Carpathian railway tunnel had been targeted by Russian missiles. I’ve been wondering why this Important step hadn’t been or hasn’t been taken, to cut off the flow of Western arms. Has any more info come out?

Posted by: Mbartv | Aug 19 2023 16:57 utc | 34

@ oldhippie | Aug 19 2023 16:47 utc | 29
Daily Kos did have a writer, Mark Sumner, who got into the details. But he seems gone from Kos. They have budget problems and Markos can't handle it all.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 19 2023 16:59 utc | 35

If the Russians do launch an offensive the question will be when

Posted by: Milites | Aug 19 2023 16:07 utc | 25

The question who's going to provide the defence?
Because the UA will be shattered.
Russia heading west is going to provoke a series of desperate responses from. Perhaps the stealth option eill be exercised?
Desperation leads to fatal responses.

Posted by: jpc | Aug 19 2023 17:14 utc | 36

@ Ahenobarbus 16
A "pseudo armistice" followed by Russia taking a "long pause" ???
Those ideas are pure nonsense and I have to wonder why you would say that.
Russia is 100% in control of the timing. It could not possibly gain anything from these pauses, and everyone knows it. And you know the West would take advantage of any pause to re-arm and train a new Ukie army. That would be a "Minsk 3" and it ain't gonna happen. You and everyone else should take a deep meditation of the the consequences that from from the simple fact of NATO nations being "not agreement capable."

I like BG13's idea that internationally monitored referendums should be scheduled for all the remaining pieces of the 404 state, where there haven't already been a vote. No need to disrespect the 2014 referendums in the Crimea, DPR and LPR. And Russia probably doesn't want to redo the 2022 referendums in Kherson and Zaphorizia oblasts because most of the residents, especially the pro-Russian residents, were evacuated for the time being. Really, the ship has sailed on those referendums, but there is still more of Ukraine to piece off - if the people want it. I'm sure Russia isn't worried about the results and, as BG13 noted, voting would separate the sheep from the goats.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Aug 19 2023 17:14 utc | 37

A little off topic, southfront.or seems/is missing, does anyone know what happened or where to find it?
Thx if you do.

Posted by: southfront fan | Aug 19 2023 17:24 utc | 38

@Ahenobarbus | Aug 19 2023 15:44 utc | 16

My feeling is that Russia will push to the Dneiper and close off east Ukraine and the Black Sea completely behind defensive lines similar to those that claim hundreds of Ukie lives today.
Medvedev writes they will have to take it all:

Dmitry Medvedev writes (https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/376):

The defeat of the West in the Ukrainian direction seems inevitable.

Let their leaders, who have forgotten about their own citizens, continue to shout at each other that they will support Ukraine with weapons and money for as long as necessary. They will train soldiers for the military, rebuild the economy, and maintain sanctions against Russia. However, these efforts won't help.

For them, it's a distant war with unfamiliar people dying. While they might not empathize much, the West won't go beyond their interests. No matter how loudly they protest at summits or the UN, someone else's war eventually becomes boring and costly.

For us, it's a tragedy involving our people, an existential conflict for self-preservation. We're faced with a choice: them or us.

Time will pass. Western leadership will change, elites will tire, and negotiations might be sought. Any counteroffensive will weaken. They'll mourn their dead and heal their wounds. Yet, we can't halt until the inherently hostile Ukrainian state is dismantled, destroyed utterly. It must never rise again, even from ashes. This process might take years or decades, but we're compelled: it's either dismantle their regime or risk Western aggression against Russia.

Hence, the only solution is to completely control the hostile state's machinery and secure loyalty for the future. Russia's control over the former Bandera state is necessary, and is a goal we will achieve.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 19 2023 17:25 utc | 39

oops, southfront.org

Posted by: southfront fan | Aug 19 2023 17:25 utc | 40

Danny Haiphong addresses UN Security Council on NATO's Ukraine Aid

https://tinyurl.com/mr3yuynt

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Aug 19 2023 17:27 utc | 41

apparently they have resurfaced at southfront.press

Read above in this thread

Posted by: jonku | Aug 19 2023 17:30 utc | 42

@southfront fan | Aug 19 2023 17:24 utc | 38

https://southfront.press/

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 19 2023 17:30 utc | 43


A little off topic, southfront.or seems/is missing, does anyone know what happened or where to find it?
Thx if you do.

Posted by: southfront fan | Aug 19 2023 17:24 utc | 38

It seems to be down ... my usual link not working ... site not found.

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Aug 19 2023 17:30 utc | 44

A little off topic, southfront.or seems/is missing, does anyone know what happened or where to find it?
Thx if you do.

Posted by: southfront fan | Aug 19 2023 17:24 utc | 38

See post 18

Posted by: UWDude | Aug 19 2023 17:32 utc | 45


@southfront fan | Aug 19 2023 17:24 utc | 38

https://southfront.press/

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 19 2023 17:30 utc | 43

Thanks Norwegian ... that works ... I'll add it to my other links.

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Aug 19 2023 17:32 utc | 46

Prigozhin when heading to make trouble in Moscow apparently listened to Lukashenko. Will Biletsky and Zelensky listen to him? I am not sure of that. So whom is Lukashenko sendind his message to?

Posted by: Richard L | Aug 19 2023 17:33 utc | 47

"southfront.press is our official domain now. We are glad to see our old followers and new readers here"

Bit off-topic, but US control of top-level TLDs has long been a problem and led to national registries. Anyone relying on a .COM or similar TLD should back it up with one (or several) national domains and a darknet domain e.g. .Onion or Tor. (IMO but always happy to hear other views.)

Posted by: tom paine | Aug 19 2023 17:35 utc | 48

Southfront itself has an explanation

SouthFront.Org Blocked By U.S.-Controlled Global Internet Supervisor


On the night of 18 August, the “international domain name registry” blocked southfront.org without any warning or explanation. Despite the fact that this organisation has been formally independent since 1998, it is actually controlled by the US Department of Commerce. What they have done is an unprecedented action in the history of modern information society. This is the American way of democracy, freedom of speech and the rule of law.

https://tinyurl.com/2p828rsd

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Aug 19 2023 17:37 utc | 49

Weeb Union had a video based on a Polish colonel's prediction. Wagner might begin an excursion at Chernigov to draw in as many AFU units as possible. Meanwhile, RU might start a larger pincer attack from north and south on the right side of Dnepr toward Zaporozhye and Poltava. Admittedly, this is probably a far fetched idea, but we'll see. It depends on the actual status of both armies.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 19 2023 17:38 utc | 50

@unimperator | Aug 19 2023 17:38 utc | 50

Since it is discussed openly, something else will happen. Only Ukraine announces offensives in advance.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 19 2023 17:41 utc | 51

I think that the best strategy for Russia is destruction of 750 KV electrical network of Ukraina. No lives lost but huge impact.
Posted by: simplex | Aug 19 2023 15:11 utc

I think you're on to something, simplex.

Posted by: spudski | Aug 19 2023 17:43 utc | 52

1/
"...You will be crushed... and the Poles rub their hands in glee. Pushed by the Americans, they will cut off the western regions..." Lukashenko.

This is the German nightmare- a pumped up Poland, an enthusiastic lap dog of the Empire- atraddling the east and with the Baltic states and scraps of Ukraine making an iron cunrtain between Germany and its natural trading partner, raw material supplier and customer.

It's a familiar situation for Germans, a reprise of the post Versailles settlement when Poland and the 'little entente' supported by the victorious French who supplied arms, training and whatever else the Poles needed, acted as the West's attack dog right up until 1939.

Germany's response then, which it saw as crucial in preserving the state, were Rapallo and, later the Ribbentrop non-aggression pact with the USSR.

As Hudson remarked, months ago, this the third time that the YS has gone to war against Germany. And the third time it has done so behind a bodyguard of proxies taking the casualties.

2/
"...Ukrainian army is still very strong. The number of losses is unimportant, as Ukrainian society and families accept deaths of their sons without protest..." simplex@5

They do not accept the deaths without protest, they are simply unable to protest publicly- in a Nazi society surrounded by informers and policemen- until they feel that their protests will be enough to overthrow the agents of imperialism who are ruining their country, their lives, their future, for few bucks and a passport to infamy in Florida.

Posted by: bevin | Aug 19 2023 17:43 utc | 53

Posted by: JessDTruth | Aug 19 2023 17:14 utc | 37

There's a lot of emotion in that response, Jess, which typically indicates one is not sure of their position.

I agree imperialism is not agreement capable with Russia so their will be no new treaties. However, no matter how juiced up on Nazi visions the Ukies get, they will have to respect the hard reality of the slaughter and seek a pause at some point, especially after being driven back to Kiev and losing all sea access.

Unless NATO enters Ukraine and declares war on Russia, the slaughter will continue unabated. Open entry of nato into Ukraine seems unlikely.

Russia/China are not fighting Ukraine/Taiwan. This is an existential struggle against western imperialism and they know it. That is a tremendous undertaking.

If it were as simple and easy as just sweeping over Europe and ousting US imperialism, they would have done that.

Russia has responded well, but more time is needed to bring it and china to the point of agreement and readiness on what to do with Europe.

China has not even provided military assistance to Russia in Ukraine yet. The nature of their collective strategy has to be clarified before starting a maximalist military operation in Europe. Locking down Ukraine is just step one in a larger process.

Again, the west is weaker by the day. That trajectory won't likely change. Time to regroup in Ukraine won't change the situation on the ground for the Ukies. They can form army after army of crash test dummies. That won't change things.

US imperialism and NATO are time pressured and self harming, not Russia and China. It behooves the latter to establish firm control in Ukraine and consolidate those gains while watching imperialism's degeneration closely and seeking the right moment.

"internationally monitored referendums". It's funny that you are outraged by my prediction of a limited offensive and pause, but offer up referendums as the next step. There is no international community. It's NATO stooge countries and the rest that want a new order.

Again, this is all a hypothesis at most. Mark my words and keep an eye on the contest, Jess.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 19 2023 17:48 utc | 54

While Russia was attacking this drone exhibition, Ukraine just attacked a Russian airbase deep inside Russian territory destroying missiles stored there and damaging a multimillion-dollar jet.

Posted by: bored | Aug 19 2023 17:52 utc | 55

While Russia was attacking this drone exhibition, Ukraine just attacked a Russian airbase deep inside Russian territory destroying missiles stored there and damaging a multimillion-dollar jet.

Posted by: bored | Aug 19 2023 17:52 utc | 56

@ john | Aug 19 2023 16:51 utc | 30

that really sums it up well john! full on bullshite - 24/7 and of course people skip over it, as you aren't supposed to think these things thru..

Posted by: james | Aug 19 2023 17:55 utc | 57

This process might take years or decades,

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 19 2023 17:25 utc | 39

Medvedev's comment doesn't preclude my prediction. Again just a hypothesis.

It's possible that a successful offensive to Kiev would allow the Russians to just roll them up quickly and march on to Lviv. If they can do that without major casualties, then they will.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 19 2023 18:01 utc | 58

What if Zelensky came and nobody noticed? It’s almost what happened here in Sweden today. His star status has been seriously eroded.
He asked for more stridsfordon 90. Couldn’t he just ask the Russians to return the one that they have on display in Moscow?

He also asked for JAS. I seriously doubt he will get any, but it’s not a bad idea. It’s lighter, smaller and a lot faster than the F16. And it’s specifically designed for rough warfare, it doesn’t even need an airfield, it can be moved by truck and take off from an ordinary highway.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Aug 19 2023 18:03 utc | 59

German major daily "Süddeutsche Zeitung" surprisingly does mention the drone exhibit. in the 3rd paragraph:

Here the entire report:

"
Today 12:16
Katja Guttmann
Russian missiles strike Chernihiv - dead and injured
At least seven people were killed in an attack by Russian missiles on the centre of the city of Chernihiv in northern Ukraine in the middle of Saturday, Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko wrote on Telegram. The cruise missile hit a central square while people were on their way to church for a religious holiday. Police officers and children were also among the wounded. The total number of injured is 117, according to Chernihiv Mayor Oleksandr Lomako.

The Interior Ministry wrote that a six-year-old child was among the dead. Another twelve-year-old is in critical condition, according to Klymenko. In addition to Chernihiv University, a theatre was also hit, President Selensky wrote on Twitter. "Russia has turned an ordinary Saturday into a day of pain and loss," the president said. Rescue workers, police and doctors were on the scene, he said.

Several Ukrainian online media outlets said a drone fair was taking place in the theatre in Chernihiv at the time of the attack. According to the Nexta news channel, the organisers denied that they had made the address of the event public. The address had been sent to participants a few hours earlier.

Viacheslav Chaus, head of the regional state administration, urged residents on Telegram to stay in shelters. It was possible that it was a ballistic missile. Chernihiv is about 150 kilometres north of the Ukrainian capital Kiev, towards the border with Belarus, which is allied with Russia.
"

Posted by: AG | Aug 19 2023 18:13 utc | 60

Thank you so much for the info.
Southfront is a great site if you follow whats happening in Ukraine,Syria etc

There are many of course as MOA is but I check southfront (and others) daily.
Thanks again people.

Posted by: southfront fan | Aug 19 2023 18:14 utc | 61

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Aug 19 2023 15:32 utc | 12
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 19 2023 15:01 utc | 3
and many others.
--------------------------------------------------------------

The average concern troll here at MoA are a thing of wonder. They read western, and Ukrainian propaganda and then puck it out all over the MoA website as if it is the latest information that the barflies just need to know. Why? Why do we need to know?

We can, and most of us do, see, hear, and read the western media "news" all provided by Ukraine. In the MSM we hear everything about every Ukrainian civilian who fall victim of the SMO. We get all the gory details about the children, babies, old people, mothers, and fathers who are killed or maimed as a result of Biden's proxy war against Russia and blamed on Russia.

And, if a Russian soldier is killed, wounded, are taken captive, we get that too, including comments from Russian POW's if, for some reason, they decide to make a negative comment about Putin. If a Russian tank or fighter jet is destroyed, we hear about that in spades, and if there is a setback for the Russians on the battlefield it is pasted all over the internet, the newspapers, and it is the main topic for the news on TV and radio in the US and the West.

So, pay attention TROLL's, we barflies are very well informed about Ukraine news, lies, and propaganda: We don't need it from you guys.

What we don't get from Western MSM is news about the dead and mangled babies, old people, mothers and fathers of the pro-Russian people who live, fight, and die in the four Oblast and Crimea region, and we don't hear or read about their struggle for independence and sovereignty.

When AFU loses planes, tanks, ammo dumps, that is usually not the main news, if it's news at all, and if an AFU POW makes negative statements about Zelensky and the AFU commanders, not big news on the western media. When is the last time you saw a video of the AFU recruitment goon squads forcibly hijackings men off the streets to be sent to the front lines on MSM?

We also don't hear or read a lot about corruption in the Kiev Government. We don't hear about the grouse violations of civil, human, political, and religious rights against the Ukrainian people by the Kiev government and "president" Zelensky. We don't hear or read much about Zelensky's three mansions and his sudden wealth since he became "president" of Ukraine and during the war.

People come to MoA to get this kind of information; the pro-Kiev shit can be gotten anywhere at any time.

Posted by: Ed | Aug 19 2023 18:16 utc | 62

Posted by: UWDude | Aug 19 2023 15:44 utc | 18

No wonder I was unable to load the site the other day. On that note I'm curious as to the stated rationale if one was even provided.

Recall that b has expressed concern over the matter of how they had planned to govern org domain names.

Could SouthFront just buy a .com domain?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 19 2023 18:27 utc | 63

Sadly not all news are optimistic. Reports from the Russian side say Mass usage of cluster munitions by Ukrsine (which do not only come from the US, but also the rest of "law abiding europe") does result in increase of russian solder casualitiea even when in trenches. The ratio of deaths is exceedingly higher.

In contemporary warfare with drone recon and cluster munitions open top trenches become obsolete; they have a better solution auch as roofed trenches (shallow tunnels) and mass usage of pillboxes. Such a conxept is now possiblw with modern engineering vehicles much powerful than formernones and mass pre-fabrication of foldable fortifications. Precision weapons can be countered by mass usage of pre-made rapidly deployed decoys.

Posted by: T6 | Aug 19 2023 18:27 utc | 64

Posted by: Ed | Aug 19 2023 18:16 utc | 62

Ed is right of course. I too noticed increased troll activity and how they repeated the same old ... stuff. Could this be linked to an intimidation campaign? At any rate, boo hoo hoo for the Drone exhibit, opera house and so on. What about the orphaned child on the Crimea bridge? What about the Russians burnt alive in Odessa? Yes I am a great practitioner of "whataboutism" which is in reality a denunciation of hypocrisy.

Posted by: Stierlitz | Aug 19 2023 18:33 utc | 65

I think that the best strategy for Russia is destruction of 750 KV electrical network of Ukraina. No lives lost but huge impact.
Posted by: simplex | Aug 19 2023 15:11 utc

It's very easy for Russia to make Ukraine completely unhabitable and cause a new mass refugee wave from Ukraine, fate EU countries to house refugees forever and cause a catasrophic economic crisis. That will guarantee that Ukraine will fade out in thenlong run of several years however that will also guarantee Ukraine recieving thousands of long range missiles like the so-called atacms and drones that woupd target Russias facilities and can lead to a catasrophe in Russia as well. This can be countered if russia threats a direct retaliation including nuclear (let me win or we both go down strategy, pampered west likely will give up) against the us and eu however if they were smart enough to do that they wouldve done it in the very beginning. Thats indeed a very radical thought.

Posted by: T6 | Aug 19 2023 18:37 utc | 66

aquadraht | Aug 19 2023 16:27 utc | 28--

No, something went right: Russian intelligence did its job as it's supposed to do. Note that the recent attempted drone attack on Moscow was aimed at the current military exhibition, although that fact hasn't surfaced here. The scheduling of a similar event was sheer hubris by NATO and its targeting should've been anticipated.

As for the direction of Russia's offensive, I look at Rybar's big map and the line from Belgorod to Dnipro combined with further exploitation of the breakout at Kupyansk that will outflank all Ukie FEBA positions. Once that develops and the Ukies scramble to close the gaps with whatever reserves that remain, the second push will drive from Tokmak to Dnipro. I expect Russia to bridge the Dnieper at some point between Zaporizhya and Dnipro in anticipation of the Ukies blowing the main bridges in those two cities. The remainder of the year will see Russia finishing the liberation of Kharkov, Dnipro, and Zaporizhya and perhaps Sumy further North. In 2024, the goal of Odessa and cutting all access to the Black Sea will be undertaken. That still leaves Poltava, Kremenchuk and a lot of territory between the current FEBA and the upper Dnieper to liberate in 2024. How hard that will be depends on the state of Ukie forces. With major forces West of the Dnieper, 2024 ought to be a war of maneuver with Ukies having little mobile forces remaining. So, overcoming local static defenses is what Russia will face.

As the above scenario paints, Ukie general staff would be in dire straits. How long would they continue to pursue a hopeless cause? Zelensky and his NATONazis, a la Hitler, won't capitulate politically. Kiev will be surrounded and put under siege, but well before then, it's likely the Nazis will move to Lvov. Currently, it appears the Poles are having second thoughts about doing anything in Ukraine, although that might change after the Polish elections. Otherwise, NATO as a whole has nothing unless the Outlaw US Empire reverses its policy and decides to directly confront Russia.

The usual disclaimer of not knowing what Russia actually has planned is warranted; the above currently being my best guess.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 19 2023 18:39 utc | 67

New details about Chernigov Iskander strike:

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8577633.html

Blow to Chernigov. Details

In Chernigov, it was not exactly the same blow to the decision-making centers, which everyone is so anxiously asking for after another attack on the territory of Russia.
It was a blow to the meeting of officers of the MTR of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO from Poland and the Baltic States before making decisions in Kiev and Warsaw.

They were going to work out a general concept of border protection in hybrid attacks.
Across the street from the Drama Theater was the headquarters of the GUR and the reception room of the SBU Department of Counterintelligence. Today there was a joint meeting with the Polish and Lithuanian military to protect the border and counter possible attacks of the DRG from Belarus and Russia.

There were 23 people with foreign citizenship at the meeting. The same number arrived from Lviv yesterday afternoon in Chernigov. Out of 23, 9 corpses were found under the rubble, the rest are still missing.
In the Drama Theater, more than 38 fighters and commanders of the MTR of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been found killed. More than 75 people have already been seriously injured.
Two civilians were killed in an unsuccessful launch of Soviet-era air defense missiles.
The contrail of the S-300 air defense system is visible on the video. The APU admitted that they unsuccessfully tried to shoot down a rocket of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the city limits.

Zelensky and Ermak refused to come to the scene of the tragedy in Chernigov.
The test launch of the Iskander K rocket (winged equipment), capable of being equipped with a TNW (low-power charge), was recognized as successful. The AFU air defense systems overslept him. As well as the attack on the NATO warehouse in Kiev this morning with an X50 missile.
No amount of public relations intimidation (Russia is ready for the next week) will correct the terrible result for NATO in Chernihiv.
At this hour, 54 people have already died. 3 civilians. The wounded and injured exceeded 89 people.

11 very bad foreigners (officers from Poland and the Baltic States) were taken by helicopter to Kiev and from there on board to Poland. Which of them will live to see tomorrow is a big question. Senior officers and the general were taken by helicopter to Vinnitsa, where they will decide what to do next. Most likely, one of the senior officers will be lucky enough to fly to Poland and from there to Munich or Dusseldorf.

A BND employee responsible for space communications and encrypted data transmission services assigned to the NATO headquarters in Vilnius has gone missing in the Chernihiv Drama Theater.

source: @nonetutto

Posted by: aquadraht | Aug 19 2023 18:40 utc | 68

Seneschal | Aug 19 2023 16:53 utc | 32--

"Neoliberal thinking" does NOT promote the wellbeing of the people, which is precisely what Russia's Political-Economy under Putin has done. That BigLie renders your entire comment non-credible.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 19 2023 18:48 utc | 69

Posted by: hopehely | Aug 19 2023 15:20 utc | 8
Oh yeah of course. It's easy to beat hawthorns with someone else's dick.


Can we take a moment to appreciate the fine art of insult..


Posted by: Rattus | Aug 19 2023 18:50 utc | 70

The BBC to their credit actually say there was a drone exhibition taking place.

As far as the Guardian are concerned this was an attack on a theatre.

I tend to think they didn't bother telling the general public about the exhibition, which was announced at 4 hours notice for security reasons. Hence the civilian casualties, who were presumably walking in the square not knowing there was a potential target right there.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 19 2023 18:56 utc | 71

aquadraht | Aug 19 2023 18:40 utc | 68--

Thanks for that further detailed report. As I wrote above, overboard hubris to hold such a conference anywhere in Ukraine. It wouldn't have been touched if in Poland. I doubt if that mistake will be repeated, but then we're talking about NATO.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 19 2023 18:58 utc | 72

Posted by: Milites | Aug 19 2023 15:35 utc | 13

‘….The question surely is, why do you keep on proposing courses of action that either expose Russian military forces to unnecessary risk, or would throw Ukraine a lifeline by triggering article 5?’

Article 5 is just a phrase. NATO are already in this up to their gonads. If by ‘Article 5’ you mean conscription and deployment of the woke LBGTQ Trans-marines (most sane Americans and Europeans would give the middle finger if asked to join a draft for this obscene cause for the banking / MIC cabal) , well, it doesn’t take much imagination to know who would win such a fight. The Russkies would have a field day. God help ‘em going up against Akmat Battalion or Wagner.

I believe Russia IS about to unleash hell on the remainder of the Ukro-NATO forces, to finish the job and ensure that all embersof NAZIs remain extinguished. The Poles may get the prize they seek (it is theirs historically anyway) if they play nice with the Russians.

Posted by: Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Aug 19 2023 19:15 utc | 73

(According to namarshe)19-08-2023 Objective control. Chernigov.

At 17.00 Kyiv time. More than 100 people were injured as a result of a missile attack on an "exhibition" in Chernihiv with a modified Iskander K missile. More than 60 people died.

NATO air ambulance has been working all day, taking out heavy ones to the countries of the alliance.

Destroyed several key specialists - NATO cryptographers in the Baltic countries. 11 high-ranking NATO officers are missing.

Posted by: SlowSoft | Aug 19 2023 19:30 utc | 74

@#41
SattaMassagana

D.Haiphong at the UN....
Very good address, would like to know how it was received.... I would think that every one in the audience knows what he says is true, and they know who is promoting the destruction of Ukraine. or do they? Or do they care at all?

Posted by: medo | Aug 19 2023 19:41 utc | 75

Destroyed several key specialists - NATO cryptographers in the Baltic countries. 11 high-ranking NATO officers are missing.

Posted by: SlowSoft | Aug 19 2023 19:30 utc | 74

Too soon for speculations. High ranking officers will have obituaries.

All we know for certain is that people foolishly congregated and they were doned.

Posted by: too scents | Aug 19 2023 19:43 utc | 76

Re. the arrival in Chernigov, from Boris Rozhin:

There were 23 people with foreign citizenship at the meeting. The same number arrived from Lvov yesterday afternoon in Chernihiv. Of the 23, 9 corpses were found under the rubble, the rest are still considered missing.
In the Drama Theatre, more than 38 fighters and commanders of the MTR of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been found killed. More than 75 people are seriously injured.
During the unsuccessful launch of anti-aircraft missiles of the Soviet period, two civilians were killed.
The contrail of the S-300 air defense system is visible on the video. The Armed Forces of Ukraine admitted that they unsuccessfully tried to shoot down a missile of the RF Armed Forces in the city.
Zelensky and Yermak refused to come to the scene of the tragedy in Chernihiv.
The test launch of the Iskander K missile (winged equipment), capable of being equipped with TNW (low-yield charge), was recognized as successful. Air defense systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine overslept him. As well as the attack on the NATO warehouse in Kyiv this morning with the X50 missile.
.....So far, 54 people have died. 3 civilians. The wounded and injured exceeded 89 people.

Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 19 2023 19:46 utc | 77

@Ed 62

Even after 18 months+ I cannot quite get my mind around the fact that all these Western journalists and scholars etc. - thousands and thousands of individuals - go along this PR madness.

The point is: They might be just names under newspaper reports, statements and so on. Names you might hate. Fine.
But then these are also people you can talk to in real, who have families, who you might know privately. And then you will find that they just will not believe anything contradicting. In fact they look at you like you were a mad person.

This is one very sad development because any form of critical discourse has become virtually impossible because you end up in a fight with them. And who wants to fight with people you very often used to find decent, nice even, agreeing in many other things of life?

So the social fabric itself is under severe attack from this.
There used to be some understanding on both sides of the "political divide", some respect. In the 1950s the very same academic societies that now are strictly on anti-Russia track were heavily against WMDs, fighting the government. Now its like the Spanish Inquisition. And as soon as you personally know those Inquisitors it all makes no sense at all any more.

Posted by: AG | Aug 19 2023 19:51 utc | 78

How the rest of the world perceives the end of the war in the Ukraine is important to Russia. Does Russia want the RoW to see primarily a Russian victory or a NATO defeat? I think the latter and so there will not be a big arrow offensive. IMHO Russia will continue its active defense supplemented by drone and missile attacks behind the lines. This will continue until the Ukrainian army collapses, until the soldiers throw down their weapons and walk home. That will signify the unconditional surrender of the Ukrainian army. Then Russia will launch a bigger offensive but not big arrow. That won't happen until NATO stops sending money and weapons into the Ukraine, which will signify NATO's surrender. I think Russia wants to create a situation where it will be clear to all that Ukraine lost because NATO is a cowardly organization that promised to support the Ukraine for as long as it takes to victory and then broke its promise.

Posted by: Chas | Aug 19 2023 19:52 utc | 79

"This week the Ukrainian army committed its last reserve brigade with western equipment to its counter-offensive." - MoA
I believe you MoA but what is your source for this? My cursed youtube feed (chosen for me, not by me) is filled w/people insisting that Ukraine is patiently thinning out the Russian lines.

------------------------------------------------
I hope you are right about a Russian counter-offensive because it will end the war.
The U.S. will gladly settle for a Korean style DMZ wasteland. The U.S. cannot afford to keep throwing equipment away.

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Aug 19 2023 19:55 utc | 80

@ oldhippie | Aug 19 2023 16:47 utc | 29
Daily Kos did have a writer, Mark Sumner, who got into the details. But he seems gone from Kos. They have budget problems and Markos can't handle it all.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 19 2023 16:59 utc | 35

Sumner is a Russophobe who buys into the Western warmongering narrative totally and defends NATO expansion. I read and commented on DK for several years but finally had to leave when Trump derangement syndrome completely took over the site. According to several commenters, DK once allowed a wide range of opinion, but during the 2016 election Markos instituted a rule that allowed no criticism of St. Hillary, and the site has gone downhill ever since, becoming ever more intolerant of any deviation from the Democratic party's narratives. I once made some remarks that Russian interference made zero difference in the election's outcome and was attacked vigorously. It's now a worse than useless rag.

Posted by: Mike R | Aug 19 2023 19:58 utc | 81

Christian J Chuba | Aug 19 2023 19:55 utc | 80

I don't know where b got it but yahoo has this....

"Ukraine sends the powerhouse 82nd Air Assault Brigade into battle, as generals decide 'to put all their chips on the table,' says defense analyst"

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-sends-powerhouse-82nd-air-090535187.html

(Please don't shoot the messenger)

Posted by: dh | Aug 19 2023 20:15 utc | 82

I was writing here how you can restore the old web address south something dot org again, but cloudflare got triggered and blogged me.

Let's see, if this comment gets through.

Posted by: C | Aug 19 2023 20:17 utc | 83

So let's see if the CDN provider filters on the ip address or not, like e.g.: 194.58.88.47

No, that works, put it into your hosts file and those nostalgic can still use the old address.

Posted by: C | Aug 19 2023 20:19 utc | 84

'...In the 1950s the very same academic societies that now are strictly on anti-Russia track were heavily against WMDs, fighting the government. Now its like the Spanish Inquisition. And as soon as you personally know those Inquisitors it all makes no sense at all any more." AG@78

In the 1950s these people and institutions, or their ancestors, were intimidated by anti communism into the same anti-Russia attitudes that they have today. If anything it was more like the Spanish Inquisition then.
On the other hand there were then the remnants of the war and pre-war Popular Fronts and their sympathy for the USSR, whereas today the current anti-Russian sentiments are simply piggy backed on the anti-communism that has been central to western discourse since 1948 (and was strong enough for decades before that.)

Posted by: bevin | Aug 19 2023 20:20 utc | 85

Posted by: hopehely | Aug 19 2023 15:20 utc | 8
Oh yeah of course. It's easy to beat hawthorns with someone else's dick.

Can we take a moment to appreciate the fine art of insult..
Posted by: Rattus | Aug 19 2023 18:50 utc | 70
----------------------------------------------------
Let me add my favorite, picked up from wsj years ago. Mea grade culpa, b.

'Do you have to wear padded head gear when you have to think to avoid injuring yourself?'

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 19 2023 20:32 utc | 86

I expect some offensive actions in the north to push Ukrainian forces away from the Russian border and generally more pressure along the Donetsk front line. IMO, the Kremlin is still feeling out how far the US will go and building up the means to make very serious war. And it does have time (not without risk) because this winter will be hard on Ukraine as a whole. Harder than last winter. Russia has the ability to make the winter almost impossible for Ukraine.

I won’t be surprised by relatively small scale offensive actions during the winter, as Russia is likely better prepared for winter combat this year than it was last year. But the time for Russia to strike is next spring when it is likely to be at its strongest and Ukraine at its weakest. And spring 2024 is also the most dangerous time for the US in terms of domestic politics, which is the root of US geopolitics.

Again, targeting spring 2024 is not without risk or costs for Russia, but in the grand scheme of things it probably makes the most sense. The question is how much of a counteroffensive Russia attempts as the Ukrainian offensive winds down and whether Russia is positioned and quick acting enough to exploit serious failures by Ukraine between now and spring 2024.

Posted by: Lex | Aug 19 2023 20:34 utc | 87

Don Bacon | Aug 19 2023 16:59 utc | 35

They [DailyKos] have budget problems and Markos can't handle it all.

Best news I've read all day.

Posted by: chasmark | Aug 19 2023 20:37 utc | 88

@AG 78

This is an astute observation; the social fabric of the West is indeed under attack. Though calling it abuse rather than an attack might be more accurate.

Every country needs institutions than govern in the public interest. For the general populace it is more easily acceptable that _some_ things might go wrong, some mistakes have been made, that only a few bad apples acted against the system and so on. But as the lies in favour of the establishment became ever more egregious The Powers That Are needed to double down on the threats and manipulations to keep people in line.

"Do you really believe that the US secret police killed its president in 1963?" is already answered in the positive for a majority of Americans. "Do you believe that some in the government lied to get us into the second Iraq War?" as well. We now reached a point where they ask us: "Do you really believe that practically every single government in the West, every single mainstream media outlet, almost all experts and even most of academia are just lying into your face day after day?! Do you really believe that?!" That's a tough pill to swallow for most people, because then you would have to recognize that we are all in deep shit.

Bevin is right of course (@85) that this shitshow has been going on for quite a while, but it has reached a level of absurdity, that I would have (naively admittedly) thought impossible even just 5 years ago. Still, this slow collapse of the public sphere should be treated as an opportunity rather than a defeat. The only problem is, that the wankers at the top could try to channel the growing unrest into some sort of fascist movement again, instead of allowing an actually democratic movent emerging.

Posted by: Roland | Aug 19 2023 20:43 utc | 89

Posted by: chasmark | Aug 19 2023 20:37 utc | 88

Don Bacon: They [DailyKos] have budget problems and Markos can't handle it all.

Best news I've read all day.

Moon of Alabama would not even exist without Daily Kos.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Aug 19 2023 20:51 utc | 90

I think that will come with the first hard frosts of winter.
———
Sam Vandenberg | Aug 19 2023 15:01

I think that the best strategy for Russia is destruction of 750 KV electrical network of Ukraina. No lives lost but huge impact.

Posted by: Spume | Aug 19 2023 20:54 utc | 91

@Carlos Marques (12)

So you still don’t comprehend the concept of attritional warfare, even after 18 months in which Ukraine has lost an estimated 300,000-400,000 soldiers killed in action and Russia has lost perhaps 25,000-40,000. Think how much easier this will make the next phase of maneuver against a depleted Ukrainian army.

What I don’t get is how you don’t get it.

Posted by: Rob | Aug 19 2023 21:16 utc | 92

Seneschal | Aug 19 2023 16:53 utc | 32
*** Russia is – we should not forget about that – a country which still is dominated by neoliberal economic thinking, even after Putin adjusted some of the gears.***

But why?
Neoliberalism is a bankerite economic cult worshiped by transnational traitors, spivs and extortionists.
Supposedly the *enemies* of Russia -- and led by the US Establishment and City of London.
These *cannot* be defeated by any country compliant with the doctrines of their rigged system.
Compliance merely perpetuates and increases servitude to that system and its masters....
So what does that indicate about Putin and his favoured advisers?

Posted by: Cynic | Aug 19 2023 21:20 utc | 93

Posted by: Rob | Aug 19 2023 21:16 utc | 92

What I don’t get is how you don’t get it.

Your premise heavily depends on those asserted casualty numbers actually being true, though...

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Aug 19 2023 21:21 utc | 94

Posted by: Chas | Aug 19 2023 19:52 utc | 79

That makes sense to me. Further on, I made an amateur's study of river lines the Russian General Staff and Russian Security Council might make their new western border with the West Eurasian peninsula:

https://therevdavidrgraham.substack.com/p/new-western-borders-of-russia

Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Aug 19 2023 21:25 utc | 95


Posted by: hopehely | Aug 19 2023 15:20 utc | 8
Oh yeah of course. It's easy to beat hawthorns with someone else's dick.


Can we take a moment to appreciate the fine art of insult..


Posted by: Rattus | Aug 19 2023 18:50 utc | 70

Ill drink to that.

Posted by: UWDude | Aug 19 2023 21:34 utc | 96

I believe Russia IS about to unleash hell on the remainder of the Ukro-NATO forces, to finish the job and ensure that all embersof NAZIs remain extinguished. The Poles may get the prize they seek (it is theirs historically anyway) if they play nice with the Russians. Posted by: Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Aug 19 2023 19:15 utc | 73

Nato could be running out of weapons. There were already reports months ago that they stopped sending 155mm (6") cannons because there weren't left anymore, and are sending 105mm (4") cannons, which are significantly less effective. And there are more gaps in the lines all the time, which means unless AFU abandons some of the current lines, they will be fighting with lack of weapons, translating to increased casualties.

US/Blinken was banking on Jeddah conference and the counter-offensive, humiliation and surrender terms for Russia, but there will be no stopping the red fury now.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 19 2023 21:38 utc | 97

Posted by: Ed | Aug 19 2023 18:16 utc | 62

So true. If you read the imperialist press you'd think the Russians had only killed defenseless civilians for the last year. It's not even effective propaganda.

From their elite perches, they seem to truly believe that because we can't stop them at the moment, we have no clue of what they are doing.

What's that one about who the gods would destroy...?

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 19 2023 21:39 utc | 98

" The Ukrainian counter-offensive will likely culminate next week. It has reached is maximum potential and will now peter out.

That is the moment when the Russian army will go on the offensive."


---op

I see no signs of this, said visit and some vague chatter from a couple folks (mostly about next spring at that), is almost meaningless imho, like always though.. we'll see. I'm not expecting much outside of the perhaps continued ru pressure in the northeast in the weeks ahead.

Posted by: knighthawk | Aug 19 2023 21:40 utc | 99

Posted by: Ed | Aug 19 2023 18:16 utc | 62

Most of what you label "concern trolls", Ed, bemoan the civilian losses on both sides as harmful to the overall Russian goals. It's very disingenuous, if not downright dishonest, to assert that critics of the Russian government repeat western propaganda when it's pbvious that they don't. Just who is the western propagandist that suggests that Russia should not put up with attacks on any assets of the strategic nuclear triad, specifically the bombers?

I mean, sure, there have been trolls who have expressed fake concern, but they have been transparent due to their suggestions. And then, there have been fascist trash of the liberal milieu like the Inkanafo. But they do not define actual critical voices.

This attitude that the Russian government is composed by demigods who should be immune to any form of criticism is absurd and for this blog, harmful and unacceptable. Especially when the criticism aims at the confounding of the murderous Anglo-American empire. One may well disagree with aspects of said criticism (such as "shadowbanned" suggesting casually the use of tactical nukes and worse, for my part), but at no point should different voices be silenced in order to create a safe echo chamber.

Posted by: Constantine | Aug 19 2023 21:43 utc | 100

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