Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 31, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-206

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 16:46 utc | 210
I find it interesting that so much space on this thread is being occupied by a debate WRT Russian intents, actions, and capabilities at the Beginning of the SMO. Nearly 18 months ago…
That is how Western propaganda machine works. Focus on the targets, create and maintain focus, never let targets shift narratives back to the origin. They don’t talk about their defeats, and news media are just mouthpieces for them.
Iraq WMD project was one. Ukraine project is on going. Taiwan project is getting on. The same old approach, unsuccessful, but no reverse.

Posted by: KitaySupporter | Sep 1 2023 17:00 utc | 401

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 16:46 utc | 210
I find it interesting that so much space on this thread is being occupied by a debate WRT Russian intents, actions, and capabilities at the Beginning of the SMO. Nearly 18 months ago…
That is how Western propaganda machine works. Focus on the targets, create and maintain focus, never let targets shift narratives back to the origin. They don’t talk about their defeats, and news media are just mouthpieces for them.
Iraq WMD project was one. Ukraine project is on going. Taiwan project is getting on. The same old approach, unsuccessful, but no reverse.

Posted by: KitaySupporter | Sep 1 2023 17:00 utc | 402

I have noticed a bias here among the commenters….
Mostly focusing on Russian errors/omissions…..
So let’s shift the discussion to Ukie/NATO errors or omissions….
Let’s start with the NATO premise of using Ukraine as a proxy to dis-member Russia… FAILED
Then Ukie goal of overwhelming the DonBas in a surprise attack & taking Crimea…. FAILED
Then Ukie goal of destroying ZNPP… FAILED
Then Ukie goal of Destroying the Kerch Strait Bridge… FAILED
Then NATO goal of crushing the Russian economy…. FAILED
Then NATO goal of isolating Russia and making Russia into a pariah state…. FAILED
Then NATO goal of eliminating Russia’s ability to export oil/gas/fertilizer/grain/manufactures… FAILED
Then NATO’s goal of decimating the Russian population, it’s soldiers, it’s industries…. FAILED
Then NATO’s goal of denying the PRC the ability to manufacture state of the art chips…. FAILED
Then NATO’s goal of destroying the DPRK…. Failed
Then NATO’s goal of destroying ASEAN…. Failed
Then NATO’s goal of destroying the Thai monarchy…. Failed
Then NATO’s goal of gaining control of Myammar via proxies…. Failed
Then NATO’s goal of using Pakistan as a conduit to continued air assault on Afghanistan
Then NATO’s goal of pitting India against China via their boundary dispute(s)…. FAILED
Then NATO’s control of African uranium, oil, gas, cobalt, gold… FAILING BIG TIME
Then NATO’s control of South American oil, gas, lithium….. FAILING
Why don’t we talk about these items???
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 17:06 utc | 403

I have noticed a bias here among the commenters….
Mostly focusing on Russian errors/omissions…..
So let’s shift the discussion to Ukie/NATO errors or omissions….
Let’s start with the NATO premise of using Ukraine as a proxy to dis-member Russia… FAILED
Then Ukie goal of overwhelming the DonBas in a surprise attack & taking Crimea…. FAILED
Then Ukie goal of destroying ZNPP… FAILED
Then Ukie goal of Destroying the Kerch Strait Bridge… FAILED
Then NATO goal of crushing the Russian economy…. FAILED
Then NATO goal of isolating Russia and making Russia into a pariah state…. FAILED
Then NATO goal of eliminating Russia’s ability to export oil/gas/fertilizer/grain/manufactures… FAILED
Then NATO’s goal of decimating the Russian population, it’s soldiers, it’s industries…. FAILED
Then NATO’s goal of denying the PRC the ability to manufacture state of the art chips…. FAILED
Then NATO’s goal of destroying the DPRK…. Failed
Then NATO’s goal of destroying ASEAN…. Failed
Then NATO’s goal of destroying the Thai monarchy…. Failed
Then NATO’s goal of gaining control of Myammar via proxies…. Failed
Then NATO’s goal of using Pakistan as a conduit to continued air assault on Afghanistan
Then NATO’s goal of pitting India against China via their boundary dispute(s)…. FAILED
Then NATO’s control of African uranium, oil, gas, cobalt, gold… FAILING BIG TIME
Then NATO’s control of South American oil, gas, lithium….. FAILING
Why don’t we talk about these items???
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 17:06 utc | 404

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 17:06 utc | 205
Because in current society, it’s always the good guy who gets picked apart and ridiculed.

Posted by: Jusses | Sep 1 2023 17:19 utc | 405

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 17:06 utc | 205
Because in current society, it’s always the good guy who gets picked apart and ridiculed.

Posted by: Jusses | Sep 1 2023 17:19 utc | 406

ukronazi regime has shift the attention from failed counter attack to successfull drone attack inside Russia.
what is oligarchs lovly chessmaster doing?
right! nothing!
drone productions facilities spring up like mushrooms all over Ukraine!
And oligarchs chessmaster?
Attacking mock ups and empty building

Posted by: tesla | Sep 1 2023 17:23 utc | 407

ukronazi regime has shift the attention from failed counter attack to successfull drone attack inside Russia.
what is oligarchs lovly chessmaster doing?
right! nothing!
drone productions facilities spring up like mushrooms all over Ukraine!
And oligarchs chessmaster?
Attacking mock ups and empty building

Posted by: tesla | Sep 1 2023 17:23 utc | 408

To Tesla: Your namesake was a genius but you are more of a simpleton. “Drone production facilities” springing up like mushrooms… Laughable! Drones are not produced in Ukraine, just assembled from packages. You can do it in your garage. You do not need a factory or a workshop for that!
Moreover some drones have probably been launched from the Russian territory. Easy to transport the pieces in a lorry and then assemble. There is 7 million Ukrainians in Russia, there must be lots of SBU moles among them. Inevitable since this SMO is to an extent a civil war. In a civil war divisions run through families sometimes. You are on one side and your brother without your knowing is a mole for the other side.

Posted by: Teraspol | Sep 1 2023 17:40 utc | 409

To Tesla: Your namesake was a genius but you are more of a simpleton. “Drone production facilities” springing up like mushrooms… Laughable! Drones are not produced in Ukraine, just assembled from packages. You can do it in your garage. You do not need a factory or a workshop for that!
Moreover some drones have probably been launched from the Russian territory. Easy to transport the pieces in a lorry and then assemble. There is 7 million Ukrainians in Russia, there must be lots of SBU moles among them. Inevitable since this SMO is to an extent a civil war. In a civil war divisions run through families sometimes. You are on one side and your brother without your knowing is a mole for the other side.

Posted by: Teraspol | Sep 1 2023 17:40 utc | 410

Ukraine elections. funny a week ago usa representatives spoke of funding the elections as zel was broke. desperate to show democracy as actually important it was being pushed by usa .martial law or not. now zel is linking elections to more weapons. even more democracy values the EU can be proud of.

Posted by: hankster | Sep 1 2023 18:00 utc | 411

Ukraine elections. funny a week ago usa representatives spoke of funding the elections as zel was broke. desperate to show democracy as actually important it was being pushed by usa .martial law or not. now zel is linking elections to more weapons. even more democracy values the EU can be proud of.

Posted by: hankster | Sep 1 2023 18:00 utc | 412

The Nato trained army of around 70k, mostly in the Zaporozhye front will complete its destruction in the following weeks.
Zelensky firing all his military recruitment commissars and talks to mobilize 3 million people signals the Ukrainian collapse to start. AFU will go full ISIS mode, with lightly trained and lightly armed mobilized. It will extend the war for a year or two, but there is also a chance the big mobilization will never happen, as planned, and there will be if not revolution, at least passive resistance.
BMA also said he thinks there will still be a large offensive Kharkov-Sumy based on where mobile logistics are built up. But it won’t necessarily be a “big arrow” offensive, it is designed to stretch and facilitate the collapse with a new attritive front, far away from the current fronts. Eventually, it will have to lead to encircling Kramatorsk from the north (as was the original plan, still in force).

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 1 2023 18:08 utc | 413

The Nato trained army of around 70k, mostly in the Zaporozhye front will complete its destruction in the following weeks.
Zelensky firing all his military recruitment commissars and talks to mobilize 3 million people signals the Ukrainian collapse to start. AFU will go full ISIS mode, with lightly trained and lightly armed mobilized. It will extend the war for a year or two, but there is also a chance the big mobilization will never happen, as planned, and there will be if not revolution, at least passive resistance.
BMA also said he thinks there will still be a large offensive Kharkov-Sumy based on where mobile logistics are built up. But it won’t necessarily be a “big arrow” offensive, it is designed to stretch and facilitate the collapse with a new attritive front, far away from the current fronts. Eventually, it will have to lead to encircling Kramatorsk from the north (as was the original plan, still in force).

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 1 2023 18:08 utc | 414

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 16:25 utc | 198
So they were not launched from inside Russia?
Based on the videos of the attack taken by other Ukrainian drones during the attack, the ones that attacked looked small.
It looks like the first one in the video below just missed. The second one did not.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1697625317072908647

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 18:44 utc | 415

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 16:25 utc | 198
So they were not launched from inside Russia?
Based on the videos of the attack taken by other Ukrainian drones during the attack, the ones that attacked looked small.
It looks like the first one in the video below just missed. The second one did not.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1697625317072908647

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 18:44 utc | 416

Posted by: hankster | Sep 1 2023 18:00 utc | 209
I was thinking about the 2019 election, iir, when Donbas oblasts were excluded, while reading MoA ppl estimating, again, population. Chasing compulsive liars into a vortex of insanity seems futile to me. Everyone knows the last census was 2001; I read it last year, when I crossed referenced a wikiwtf article purporting “2nd largest city” Mariupol demographic data to some lurid MSM feature story. Since then, I’ve skimmed a couple opinion polls (funded and run by IRI, USAID, and Canada) that also exclude “temporarily occupied” Donbas and Crimea. —those aren’t the problems with methodology. Frankly, I don’t expect an election. I am somewhat alarmed though that I’m no longer alarmed that Zelensk* isn’t the least embarrassed about flaunting contempt for westworld idea of “free and fair elections.” On the other hand, I doubt bleeding-liberals are streaming Ukraine news channels on the daily, if ever. So. No harm. No foul.
Hindustan Times, Zelensk*’s Desperate Bid to Cling to Power – VIDEO (VO EN trans. of answers only)

I gave [Sen.] Lindsey [Graham] an answer simply, very quickly. He’s very pleased with it. As long as our legislators are willing to do it. Why? This is because the electoral code would need to be amended for elections to happen during martial law. I told him, if you’re ready to give me five billion. Since I’m not a person who deals with the cobblestones, I cannot just take five billion from the budget. It seems to me, this is exactly the amount needed to hold elections in peace time. I don’t know how much is needed in war time. So I told him, if the US and Europe provide financial support—I’m sorry. I’m not asking for anything. I’m not going to hold elections [on] credit. I will not take money from weapons and give it to elections, and this is stipulated by law. And most importantly, let’s take risks together. How? Observers must be in the trenches. I told him, you and I should send observers to the front lines so that we have legitimate elections for us and the whole world. And there are moments with foreign countries, here we need Europe to help us for the most part, because Ukrainian refugees are the majority in the European Union today, and we need to open up appropriate opportunities there so that people could come to the polls. We don’t have such infrastructural capabilities. Seven million people have to vote. We need every vote. We need a lawful choice. We need society to have this choice, so that it does not divide our people, so that the military could vote. They are defending this democracy today and not to give them this opportunity because of war , that is unfair. All is against elections just because of this.
[…]

ukrinform | Elections in Ukraine should take place after end of martial law (19.06.23)

…He emphasized that the Ukrainian authorities do not know how to organize voting for almost seven million Ukrainians who are currently outside Ukraine, as well as for citizens living in the regions temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation. “We don’t know how to ensure proper representation, turnout of other citizens during martial law, and whether the election facilities will be attacked. Therefore, it seems to me that a very wise decision is laid down in the legislation of Ukraine that elections cannot be held during martial law,” the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada argued….

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 1 2023 18:47 utc | 417

Posted by: hankster | Sep 1 2023 18:00 utc | 209
I was thinking about the 2019 election, iir, when Donbas oblasts were excluded, while reading MoA ppl estimating, again, population. Chasing compulsive liars into a vortex of insanity seems futile to me. Everyone knows the last census was 2001; I read it last year, when I crossed referenced a wikiwtf article purporting “2nd largest city” Mariupol demographic data to some lurid MSM feature story. Since then, I’ve skimmed a couple opinion polls (funded and run by IRI, USAID, and Canada) that also exclude “temporarily occupied” Donbas and Crimea. —those aren’t the problems with methodology. Frankly, I don’t expect an election. I am somewhat alarmed though that I’m no longer alarmed that Zelensk* isn’t the least embarrassed about flaunting contempt for westworld idea of “free and fair elections.” On the other hand, I doubt bleeding-liberals are streaming Ukraine news channels on the daily, if ever. So. No harm. No foul.
Hindustan Times, Zelensk*’s Desperate Bid to Cling to Power – VIDEO (VO EN trans. of answers only)

I gave [Sen.] Lindsey [Graham] an answer simply, very quickly. He’s very pleased with it. As long as our legislators are willing to do it. Why? This is because the electoral code would need to be amended for elections to happen during martial law. I told him, if you’re ready to give me five billion. Since I’m not a person who deals with the cobblestones, I cannot just take five billion from the budget. It seems to me, this is exactly the amount needed to hold elections in peace time. I don’t know how much is needed in war time. So I told him, if the US and Europe provide financial support—I’m sorry. I’m not asking for anything. I’m not going to hold elections [on] credit. I will not take money from weapons and give it to elections, and this is stipulated by law. And most importantly, let’s take risks together. How? Observers must be in the trenches. I told him, you and I should send observers to the front lines so that we have legitimate elections for us and the whole world. And there are moments with foreign countries, here we need Europe to help us for the most part, because Ukrainian refugees are the majority in the European Union today, and we need to open up appropriate opportunities there so that people could come to the polls. We don’t have such infrastructural capabilities. Seven million people have to vote. We need every vote. We need a lawful choice. We need society to have this choice, so that it does not divide our people, so that the military could vote. They are defending this democracy today and not to give them this opportunity because of war , that is unfair. All is against elections just because of this.
[…]

ukrinform | Elections in Ukraine should take place after end of martial law (19.06.23)

…He emphasized that the Ukrainian authorities do not know how to organize voting for almost seven million Ukrainians who are currently outside Ukraine, as well as for citizens living in the regions temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation. “We don’t know how to ensure proper representation, turnout of other citizens during martial law, and whether the election facilities will be attacked. Therefore, it seems to me that a very wise decision is laid down in the legislation of Ukraine that elections cannot be held during martial law,” the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada argued….

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 1 2023 18:47 utc | 418

About International Republican Institute (IRI).
They’re also active in Moldova. Try to act surprised.

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 1 2023 18:51 utc | 419

About International Republican Institute (IRI).
They’re also active in Moldova. Try to act surprised.

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 1 2023 18:51 utc | 420

It is unlikely that Ukraine managed to send multiple drones 800km
Norwegian | Sep 1 2023 16:50 utc | 202
I think it’s much easier to launch toy drones from Russia, at close range. Sabotage is easiest, these airports have zero defense. Toys with grenades can hit anything. But last year I said that as soon as Finland enters nato, terrorism will appear from all borders. As with NS, nato will say Ukr did it.
Today footage from Belarus appeared with a dudacopter crossing the border 1.2km. Being losers, they didn’t shoot it at 1.2km, they let it fly until natoids got bored and went back. Now crossing border will be normal, like in Syria. Next year, with 100-200 f16s pretending to be Ukr, bombing over the border exactly like in Syria will become normal.

Posted by: rk | Sep 1 2023 18:57 utc | 421

It is unlikely that Ukraine managed to send multiple drones 800km
Norwegian | Sep 1 2023 16:50 utc | 202
I think it’s much easier to launch toy drones from Russia, at close range. Sabotage is easiest, these airports have zero defense. Toys with grenades can hit anything. But last year I said that as soon as Finland enters nato, terrorism will appear from all borders. As with NS, nato will say Ukr did it.
Today footage from Belarus appeared with a dudacopter crossing the border 1.2km. Being losers, they didn’t shoot it at 1.2km, they let it fly until natoids got bored and went back. Now crossing border will be normal, like in Syria. Next year, with 100-200 f16s pretending to be Ukr, bombing over the border exactly like in Syria will become normal.

Posted by: rk | Sep 1 2023 18:57 utc | 422

I did note that no one in that interview was bragging about
how Ukraine became the first digital state in the world (launch part, A/V feat. Samantha Power). I giggled a bit. On the inside. While rolling my eyes.
I’ve recovered har har now.

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 1 2023 19:03 utc | 423

I did note that no one in that interview was bragging about
how Ukraine became the first digital state in the world (launch part, A/V feat. Samantha Power). I giggled a bit. On the inside. While rolling my eyes.
I’ve recovered har har now.

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 1 2023 19:03 utc | 424

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 17:06 utc | 205 “Why don’t we talk about these items???”
Because most of them aren’t real things?
Take for instance this one: Then NATO goal of eliminating Russia’s ability to export oil/gas/fertilizer/grain/manufactures… FAILED
Part of the grain deal had a specific part to allow Russia to export the fertilizer. And the oil cap is at $60, not $0. But the cap appears to have done some damage. Look at the 2nd quarter earnings of Gazprom this year versus last year. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-neft-q2-net-profit-falls-43-yy-2023-08-24/

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 19:03 utc | 425

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 17:06 utc | 205 “Why don’t we talk about these items???”
Because most of them aren’t real things?
Take for instance this one: Then NATO goal of eliminating Russia’s ability to export oil/gas/fertilizer/grain/manufactures… FAILED
Part of the grain deal had a specific part to allow Russia to export the fertilizer. And the oil cap is at $60, not $0. But the cap appears to have done some damage. Look at the 2nd quarter earnings of Gazprom this year versus last year. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-neft-q2-net-profit-falls-43-yy-2023-08-24/

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 19:03 utc | 426

Slavyangrad is posting recipes, and I’m wondering if the Russians are lying about AFU successes.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2023 19:04 utc | 427

Slavyangrad is posting recipes, and I’m wondering if the Russians are lying about AFU successes.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2023 19:04 utc | 428

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 19:03 utc | 216
The price cap rules for pipe and seaborne fuel of “Russian-origin” are full of holes. I have posted links to EC and Treasury primary docs here before, but I’m not going to do it again.
Last week Bloomberg quoted Kpler quoting $71/bbl URAL. No one is keeping track of ESPO and SOKOL except the Asia market. Anyway, PUTIN! and the DUMA have been periodically drawing earnings off Gazprom et. al., tax coming in and tariff going out, since last year. It’s been in RU press. I forget the percentages; they’ve varied over time since last June, and one might imagine are a leading indicator of FYE 2023 deficit, FX inflation, and core CPI. In westworld that state exercise is rumored to be called a “windfall tax”. Just sayin, earnings after tax wouldn’t directly or indirectly measure bbl delivered. Meanwhile, the Baltic vigilantes are still whining about NG and LNG LNG flooding the market.

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 1 2023 19:36 utc | 429

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 19:03 utc | 216
The price cap rules for pipe and seaborne fuel of “Russian-origin” are full of holes. I have posted links to EC and Treasury primary docs here before, but I’m not going to do it again.
Last week Bloomberg quoted Kpler quoting $71/bbl URAL. No one is keeping track of ESPO and SOKOL except the Asia market. Anyway, PUTIN! and the DUMA have been periodically drawing earnings off Gazprom et. al., tax coming in and tariff going out, since last year. It’s been in RU press. I forget the percentages; they’ve varied over time since last June, and one might imagine are a leading indicator of FYE 2023 deficit, FX inflation, and core CPI. In westworld that state exercise is rumored to be called a “windfall tax”. Just sayin, earnings after tax wouldn’t directly or indirectly measure bbl delivered. Meanwhile, the Baltic vigilantes are still whining about NG and LNG LNG flooding the market.

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 1 2023 19:36 utc | 430

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 18:44 utc | 211
Couple of points.
The second Il-76 has had it’s engines running.
The strike is on probably the strongest part of the aircraft, the massive wing support spar that gives the plane its distinct hunched appearances.
Given the warhead will be relatively small I doubt the damage is irreparable. Explosions in TI appear far more violent than in reality.
Seems to be tricksy editing at the end showing the result of the fuel storage strike, not a plane burning, especially true if the second aircraft has recently landed.
So, possible shrapnel damage to one ac, upper wing damage to the other and a fuel fire, not quite Operation Focus is it.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 1 2023 20:16 utc | 431

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 18:44 utc | 211
Couple of points.
The second Il-76 has had it’s engines running.
The strike is on probably the strongest part of the aircraft, the massive wing support spar that gives the plane its distinct hunched appearances.
Given the warhead will be relatively small I doubt the damage is irreparable. Explosions in TI appear far more violent than in reality.
Seems to be tricksy editing at the end showing the result of the fuel storage strike, not a plane burning, especially true if the second aircraft has recently landed.
So, possible shrapnel damage to one ac, upper wing damage to the other and a fuel fire, not quite Operation Focus is it.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 1 2023 20:16 utc | 432

ZimZum | Sep 1 2023 10:24 utc | 147
–I think that it is very hard for well meaning good people to accept that we are not the good guys and haven’t been for centuries. It destroys the very basis of their world view and most people are very reluctant to accept such a change. No one wants to believe the truth about the West that is slowly being revealed through the fog of the MSM lie machine.–
Yep. Also, the smart, educated people seem to forget things they have already learned, things that they actually knew. E.g. that the US government lies, that the CIA does coups, that Pfizer is a criminal organization…
It is quite disheartening.

Posted by: Cherrycoke | Sep 1 2023 20:26 utc | 433

ZimZum | Sep 1 2023 10:24 utc | 147
–I think that it is very hard for well meaning good people to accept that we are not the good guys and haven’t been for centuries. It destroys the very basis of their world view and most people are very reluctant to accept such a change. No one wants to believe the truth about the West that is slowly being revealed through the fog of the MSM lie machine.–
Yep. Also, the smart, educated people seem to forget things they have already learned, things that they actually knew. E.g. that the US government lies, that the CIA does coups, that Pfizer is a criminal organization…
It is quite disheartening.

Posted by: Cherrycoke | Sep 1 2023 20:26 utc | 434

Dima syas “The Russians Inflict CRITICAL Losses. Final AFU Redeployment.”
One day it is so, the other day He praises Ukrainians, and their commitment to fight until death (“They are not counting their dead”, says DIma).
I cannot trust Dima anymore. He changes his analyze day by day.

Posted by: simplex | Sep 1 2023 20:34 utc | 435

Dima syas “The Russians Inflict CRITICAL Losses. Final AFU Redeployment.”
One day it is so, the other day He praises Ukrainians, and their commitment to fight until death (“They are not counting their dead”, says DIma).
I cannot trust Dima anymore. He changes his analyze day by day.

Posted by: simplex | Sep 1 2023 20:34 utc | 436

Re: “ Next year, with 100-200 f16s pretending to be Ukr, bombing over the border exactly like in Syria will become normal.”
Posted by: rk | Sep 1 2023 18:57 utc | 214
I agree with you. To expand upon that, the Defense Minister replacement of SBU Intelligence Officer Budanov as the new defense Minister and other articles written regarding a tactical change, after failed completion of “counter offensive”, suggests pulling line back, going into “defensive positions” and increase in terror tactics, volleying shells into mostly civilian targets in Donbas again.
Budanov appointment & statements that going “deeper” into Russia” (with terror strikes) is exactly the new strategy. Like Israel, disruption & frustrating Russian aims will be an endless issue.
Lavrov’s TASS article regarding West “campaigns timelines” and citing Afghanistan & Iraq as examples wasn’t particularly hopeful either.
When it comes to cowardly malicious “terror” attacks, I’m sure there are some “covert” anti-terrorist campaigns that can and will be utilized. Russia is in concert now with the CSTO in Belarus training & in huddles about it.
The only difference I see between Israel & Ukraine, is the fact that Ukraine is 1000% dependent on foreign funding. They have ZERO ability to pay for a Governance, their Agricultural gravy train has been smashed via “grain deal”, in addition, their “transit” gas deal with Russia expires in 2024. So all I see, is even if Ukrainian state is fully funded, it will collapse economically by 2025.
If Russia finishes and takes the 4 regions and sits there volleying, by 2025 early, Ukraine is finished.
Oh, and if NATO wants a full blown war, Russia’s ready. I do think the “terrorism” part will be handled in a way that non of us will ever hear about.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 1 2023 20:41 utc | 437

Re: “ Next year, with 100-200 f16s pretending to be Ukr, bombing over the border exactly like in Syria will become normal.”
Posted by: rk | Sep 1 2023 18:57 utc | 214
I agree with you. To expand upon that, the Defense Minister replacement of SBU Intelligence Officer Budanov as the new defense Minister and other articles written regarding a tactical change, after failed completion of “counter offensive”, suggests pulling line back, going into “defensive positions” and increase in terror tactics, volleying shells into mostly civilian targets in Donbas again.
Budanov appointment & statements that going “deeper” into Russia” (with terror strikes) is exactly the new strategy. Like Israel, disruption & frustrating Russian aims will be an endless issue.
Lavrov’s TASS article regarding West “campaigns timelines” and citing Afghanistan & Iraq as examples wasn’t particularly hopeful either.
When it comes to cowardly malicious “terror” attacks, I’m sure there are some “covert” anti-terrorist campaigns that can and will be utilized. Russia is in concert now with the CSTO in Belarus training & in huddles about it.
The only difference I see between Israel & Ukraine, is the fact that Ukraine is 1000% dependent on foreign funding. They have ZERO ability to pay for a Governance, their Agricultural gravy train has been smashed via “grain deal”, in addition, their “transit” gas deal with Russia expires in 2024. So all I see, is even if Ukrainian state is fully funded, it will collapse economically by 2025.
If Russia finishes and takes the 4 regions and sits there volleying, by 2025 early, Ukraine is finished.
Oh, and if NATO wants a full blown war, Russia’s ready. I do think the “terrorism” part will be handled in a way that non of us will ever hear about.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 1 2023 20:41 utc | 438

If it is true that Zelensky’s popularity is plunging, this increases the chance of catastrophe. He’s a dead ender. He can buy all the mansions he wants but who will guarantee that he can’t extradicted to face the mess left behind? Knives will be out then.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 1 2023 20:47 utc | 439

If it is true that Zelensky’s popularity is plunging, this increases the chance of catastrophe. He’s a dead ender. He can buy all the mansions he wants but who will guarantee that he can’t extradicted to face the mess left behind? Knives will be out then.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 1 2023 20:47 utc | 440

BBC reports that the Ukrainians now claim the drone attacks on Pskov were launched from within Russia itself: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66682503 .
They had earlier claimed they were launched from within the Ukraine (c.f. New Kremlin Stooge) using drones with a range of 700 KM, but the closest point in the Ukraine is 800 KM from Pskov.

Posted by: Seward | Sep 1 2023 20:48 utc | 441

BBC reports that the Ukrainians now claim the drone attacks on Pskov were launched from within Russia itself: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66682503 .
They had earlier claimed they were launched from within the Ukraine (c.f. New Kremlin Stooge) using drones with a range of 700 KM, but the closest point in the Ukraine is 800 KM from Pskov.

Posted by: Seward | Sep 1 2023 20:48 utc | 442

simplex @ 221

I cannot trust Dima anymore. He changes his analyze day by day.

God God man, Dima is just a self tiled, self appointed expert on social media:
http://blog.mozilla.org/wp-content/blogs.dir/278/files/2018/02/60ddd956280dcca0108ce4b48bd42abe-600×607.jpg

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2023 20:57 utc | 443

simplex @ 221

I cannot trust Dima anymore. He changes his analyze day by day.

God God man, Dima is just a self tiled, self appointed expert on social media:
http://blog.mozilla.org/wp-content/blogs.dir/278/files/2018/02/60ddd956280dcca0108ce4b48bd42abe-600×607.jpg

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2023 20:57 utc | 444

Mike R | Sep 1 2023 13:42 utc | 168
All true, and thank you. I would like to add that, first, partisanship plays a crucial role in this. The Iraq War is attributed to the Republicans. All the “leftists” (who are anything but) critizising the Iraq War were on board with the covert political operations, the coups and coup attempts in Libya, Syria and Ukraine. And, secondly, Trump is not a traditional Republican. With a traditional Republican, say Jeb Bush, everybody in the media would have gone along. I am not a Trump admirer by any means, he is a confidence man and a snake oil merchant, but the man wants to make deals, shady deals perhaps, but to risk destroying the world for geopolitical objectives is not on his agenda. He is not beholden to the Foreign Policy Establishment/the Neocons/the Deep State/the Permanent Establishment. He could have thrown a spanner into the workings of the imperial machine. Hence Russiagate. Hence the Neocons, Cheney, Graham, Bolton all opposing Trump.
But you probably know all that. Just wanted to mention it.
As Taibbi said, quoted form memory: The real difference is between the War Party and anybody else.

Posted by: Cherrycoke | Sep 1 2023 21:03 utc | 445

Mike R | Sep 1 2023 13:42 utc | 168
All true, and thank you. I would like to add that, first, partisanship plays a crucial role in this. The Iraq War is attributed to the Republicans. All the “leftists” (who are anything but) critizising the Iraq War were on board with the covert political operations, the coups and coup attempts in Libya, Syria and Ukraine. And, secondly, Trump is not a traditional Republican. With a traditional Republican, say Jeb Bush, everybody in the media would have gone along. I am not a Trump admirer by any means, he is a confidence man and a snake oil merchant, but the man wants to make deals, shady deals perhaps, but to risk destroying the world for geopolitical objectives is not on his agenda. He is not beholden to the Foreign Policy Establishment/the Neocons/the Deep State/the Permanent Establishment. He could have thrown a spanner into the workings of the imperial machine. Hence Russiagate. Hence the Neocons, Cheney, Graham, Bolton all opposing Trump.
But you probably know all that. Just wanted to mention it.
As Taibbi said, quoted form memory: The real difference is between the War Party and anybody else.

Posted by: Cherrycoke | Sep 1 2023 21:03 utc | 446

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 1 2023 20:41 utc | 222
The new strategy for Ukraine could be that they shrink the frontage to survive a bit longer so they have more time to make drone strikes and terror attacks in Russia. Or put another way, the PITA strategy.
As mentioned earlier, drones require point defense systems, and even then it’s not clear whether old Shilka or the newer Pantsir can detect the small drone objects. Maybe it also requires electronic warfare denial, to lock down certain area airspace completely. This requires huge commitment of resources, which are needed in the front. This is precisely why Nato select this strategy.
The problem is that there isn’t very many worthwhile targets inside Ukraine. The planes are few and scattered. Maybe they’ll research the AFU drones and invent some new counter-mechanisms and autonomous interference devices which could be used to protect important stationary targets.
Otherwise, the DRG game can be played both ways, the Kharkov-Sumy area are probably hot area right now for DRG activity, in preparation for the new front, sooner or later.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 1 2023 21:06 utc | 447

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 1 2023 20:41 utc | 222
The new strategy for Ukraine could be that they shrink the frontage to survive a bit longer so they have more time to make drone strikes and terror attacks in Russia. Or put another way, the PITA strategy.
As mentioned earlier, drones require point defense systems, and even then it’s not clear whether old Shilka or the newer Pantsir can detect the small drone objects. Maybe it also requires electronic warfare denial, to lock down certain area airspace completely. This requires huge commitment of resources, which are needed in the front. This is precisely why Nato select this strategy.
The problem is that there isn’t very many worthwhile targets inside Ukraine. The planes are few and scattered. Maybe they’ll research the AFU drones and invent some new counter-mechanisms and autonomous interference devices which could be used to protect important stationary targets.
Otherwise, the DRG game can be played both ways, the Kharkov-Sumy area are probably hot area right now for DRG activity, in preparation for the new front, sooner or later.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 1 2023 21:06 utc | 448

Posted by: Seward | Sep 1 2023 20:48 utc | 224 “closest point in the Ukraine is 800 KM from Pskov.”
It’s is about 665km if the drones flew across Belarus. https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1696730550432895313/photo/2 But still pretty “iffy” if the wind was blowing the wrong way.
But the size of the drones make it seem more likely it was launched from inside Russia.

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 21:06 utc | 449

Posted by: Seward | Sep 1 2023 20:48 utc | 224 “closest point in the Ukraine is 800 KM from Pskov.”
It’s is about 665km if the drones flew across Belarus. https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1696730550432895313/photo/2 But still pretty “iffy” if the wind was blowing the wrong way.
But the size of the drones make it seem more likely it was launched from inside Russia.

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 21:06 utc | 450

@Trubind1 | Sep 1 2023 20:41 utc | 222

increase in terror tactics, volleying shells into mostly civilian targets in Donbas again.

They’ve never stopped.

Posted by: cirsium | Sep 1 2023 21:15 utc | 451

@Trubind1 | Sep 1 2023 20:41 utc | 222

increase in terror tactics, volleying shells into mostly civilian targets in Donbas again.

They’ve never stopped.

Posted by: cirsium | Sep 1 2023 21:15 utc | 452

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 1 2023 21:06 utc | 227 “Maybe it also requires electronic warfare denial, to lock down certain area airspace completely.”
I don’t think EW is the answer as some of these drone are not going to be relying on anything that can be jammed by EW. There is work being done to have the drone follow pictures to its target. This is image recognition of what the drone sees in front of that gets matched to an on board database. Basically how the originally Tomahawks navigated to their targets.

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 21:20 utc | 453

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 1 2023 21:06 utc | 227 “Maybe it also requires electronic warfare denial, to lock down certain area airspace completely.”
I don’t think EW is the answer as some of these drone are not going to be relying on anything that can be jammed by EW. There is work being done to have the drone follow pictures to its target. This is image recognition of what the drone sees in front of that gets matched to an on board database. Basically how the originally Tomahawks navigated to their targets.

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 21:20 utc | 454

In all of the prior conflicts mentioned there was no internet so no way for a soldier or anyone else outside the govt or military to know how bad the casualties actually were until much later.

Posted by: AHB | Sep 1 2023 21:27 utc | 455

In all of the prior conflicts mentioned there was no internet so no way for a soldier or anyone else outside the govt or military to know how bad the casualties actually were until much later.

Posted by: AHB | Sep 1 2023 21:27 utc | 456

Re 228: Thanks. I used the on-line appp for city-to-city great-circle distances to Pskov. But the closest I found was 813 KM for Kiev. The app gave exactly the same distance for Chernigov, Sumy, Zhitomer, and Lutsk, all possibly closer, using both their Russian and Ukrainian spellings. I got a different distance for Kharkov, 1012 KM. Maybe the app only recognizes major cities.

Posted by: Seward | Sep 1 2023 21:27 utc | 457

Re 228: Thanks. I used the on-line appp for city-to-city great-circle distances to Pskov. But the closest I found was 813 KM for Kiev. The app gave exactly the same distance for Chernigov, Sumy, Zhitomer, and Lutsk, all possibly closer, using both their Russian and Ukrainian spellings. I got a different distance for Kharkov, 1012 KM. Maybe the app only recognizes major cities.

Posted by: Seward | Sep 1 2023 21:27 utc | 458

Denial is a wonderful thing…. obviates reading info you don’t want to acknowledge..
I repeat…..
Armchair Warlord’s analysis…
Update and a little analysis on the attack on Pskov Airfield.
Looks like that map was spot on…
Russian officials now also think AFU used the lakes to attack the airbase…
Even if launched from the sea – using the Baltics air space is an act of war IF the country did NOT know it. And if they knew – Russia has the right to retailiate.
First of all this was not a gimmicky operation with cheap drones. Loitering munitions of some kind were used – I personally suspect Switchblade 600s – fired in a large swarm with sophisticated EW support.
So because nobody is going to come riding to Kallas’ rescue at this point, Putin now has diplomatic leverage over NATO to refrain from calling what is now a bluff on Article 5. He’s a dealmaker and he’s using it. It’s significant the Russians haven’t cast blame yet.
At this point I see one of two things happening:
1. Russia casts blame, does an overt retaliatory attack in the Baltics, and NATO stands down for it.
2. NATO quietly makes some serious strategic concession elsewhere and the Russians pretend these drones teleported from Ukraine.
The Ukrainian advance on Tokmak (their first significant objective on the road to Melitopol) is now going so badly that they’re now attacking down a valley that runs at a ninety-degree angle to their intended axis of advance in an attempt to show some – any – progress.
You can’t make this stuff up!
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 16:25 utc | 198

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 22:12 utc | 459

Denial is a wonderful thing…. obviates reading info you don’t want to acknowledge..
I repeat…..
Armchair Warlord’s analysis…
Update and a little analysis on the attack on Pskov Airfield.
Looks like that map was spot on…
Russian officials now also think AFU used the lakes to attack the airbase…
Even if launched from the sea – using the Baltics air space is an act of war IF the country did NOT know it. And if they knew – Russia has the right to retailiate.
First of all this was not a gimmicky operation with cheap drones. Loitering munitions of some kind were used – I personally suspect Switchblade 600s – fired in a large swarm with sophisticated EW support.
So because nobody is going to come riding to Kallas’ rescue at this point, Putin now has diplomatic leverage over NATO to refrain from calling what is now a bluff on Article 5. He’s a dealmaker and he’s using it. It’s significant the Russians haven’t cast blame yet.
At this point I see one of two things happening:
1. Russia casts blame, does an overt retaliatory attack in the Baltics, and NATO stands down for it.
2. NATO quietly makes some serious strategic concession elsewhere and the Russians pretend these drones teleported from Ukraine.
The Ukrainian advance on Tokmak (their first significant objective on the road to Melitopol) is now going so badly that they’re now attacking down a valley that runs at a ninety-degree angle to their intended axis of advance in an attempt to show some – any – progress.
You can’t make this stuff up!
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 16:25 utc | 198

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 22:12 utc | 460

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 22:12 utc | 233
I always suspected that this is how NATO will end, by exposing the Article 5. If Russia provides evidence of Estonia attacking Russia with drones, meaning provide it at UN security council and all global south, it would probably get a lot of support for the cause.
However, the unknown factor is the lunatics in Washington. MSM will probably bury whatever accusations and evidence Russia provides with Estonia and paint it as threatening. I don’t think USA would back down, because they know that Nato would be exposed and would start disintegrating. It would almost immediately lead to the end of Nato and US influence, beginning from southern Europe, probably Turkey etc.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 1 2023 23:01 utc | 461

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 22:12 utc | 233
I always suspected that this is how NATO will end, by exposing the Article 5. If Russia provides evidence of Estonia attacking Russia with drones, meaning provide it at UN security council and all global south, it would probably get a lot of support for the cause.
However, the unknown factor is the lunatics in Washington. MSM will probably bury whatever accusations and evidence Russia provides with Estonia and paint it as threatening. I don’t think USA would back down, because they know that Nato would be exposed and would start disintegrating. It would almost immediately lead to the end of Nato and US influence, beginning from southern Europe, probably Turkey etc.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 1 2023 23:01 utc | 462

If NATO/Biden seek a frozen conflict, the best way to get one is to go over to the defensive and cease the march. Unfortunately for Ukie soldiers however, it appears the march will continue; so, the best thing to do is to drop out for self-preservation as the march is suicidal.
Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 31 2023 22:58 utc | 87
———————————————————
It does not appear to be that way. There is no appearance of divergence of opinion in the US/NATO ranks, they like finger Z for not doing it their way. The UAF keeps sacrificing bodies with no end in sight.
Unimperator, BMA, Milites, Dr. G, and many others are pointing out that the beatings will continue until morale improves. The Russians did state their security concerns a while back. As long as wsj thinks that pinpricks by drones constitute warfare there is a long way to go.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 1 2023 23:04 utc | 463

If NATO/Biden seek a frozen conflict, the best way to get one is to go over to the defensive and cease the march. Unfortunately for Ukie soldiers however, it appears the march will continue; so, the best thing to do is to drop out for self-preservation as the march is suicidal.
Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 31 2023 22:58 utc | 87
———————————————————
It does not appear to be that way. There is no appearance of divergence of opinion in the US/NATO ranks, they like finger Z for not doing it their way. The UAF keeps sacrificing bodies with no end in sight.
Unimperator, BMA, Milites, Dr. G, and many others are pointing out that the beatings will continue until morale improves. The Russians did state their security concerns a while back. As long as wsj thinks that pinpricks by drones constitute warfare there is a long way to go.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 1 2023 23:04 utc | 464

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 22:12 utc | 233 “Armchair Warlord’s analysis…”
How good has this person analysis been in the past?
The thing that seems surprising to me is that if NATO went to war against Russia, that airfield with the strategic transports would be, given it’s proximity to the border with NATO be one of the first places hit. And yet there was almost effective air defense there.
Is Russia not really worried about NATO attacking them?

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 23:04 utc | 465

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 22:12 utc | 233 “Armchair Warlord’s analysis…”
How good has this person analysis been in the past?
The thing that seems surprising to me is that if NATO went to war against Russia, that airfield with the strategic transports would be, given it’s proximity to the border with NATO be one of the first places hit. And yet there was almost effective air defense there.
Is Russia not really worried about NATO attacking them?

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 23:04 utc | 466

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 23:04 utc | 236
Pskov is not involved in SMO in Ukraine. It is the storage sight of these transport planes which have seen little use in SMO and as such has little impact.
The real valuable airbases and other valuable locations like Engels, Dyagilevo, Olenya (from Simplicius) are protected on the full spectrum and Ukraine can’t hit those. Pskov probably has some point defense too but if they were flying carboard boxes then they might not have showed up in the radar.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 1 2023 23:11 utc | 467

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 23:04 utc | 236
Pskov is not involved in SMO in Ukraine. It is the storage sight of these transport planes which have seen little use in SMO and as such has little impact.
The real valuable airbases and other valuable locations like Engels, Dyagilevo, Olenya (from Simplicius) are protected on the full spectrum and Ukraine can’t hit those. Pskov probably has some point defense too but if they were flying carboard boxes then they might not have showed up in the radar.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 1 2023 23:11 utc | 468

Has everybody read this FANTASTIC NEW BOOK JUST OUT called “Inside the Mind of Vladimir V. Putin: What Russia Should Do in its War with Ukraine and Why I Think So” by Professor Dr. George William Oprisko III. Rivetting psycho-fiction. It’s the third in a trilogy including “Why All Things Have Only Two Options — The Way I See Them and the Way I Don’t”, a brilliant collaboration with Dr. Richard Steven Hack; and their previous best seller “The Art of Arogance”.
https://shepherd.com/bookshelf/vladimir-putin
Please buy a copy today to help fund George’s ongoing meds and to boost his pompous persona around the internet forums.
Thank you.

Posted by: SCCC | Sep 1 2023 23:13 utc | 469

Has everybody read this FANTASTIC NEW BOOK JUST OUT called “Inside the Mind of Vladimir V. Putin: What Russia Should Do in its War with Ukraine and Why I Think So” by Professor Dr. George William Oprisko III. Rivetting psycho-fiction. It’s the third in a trilogy including “Why All Things Have Only Two Options — The Way I See Them and the Way I Don’t”, a brilliant collaboration with Dr. Richard Steven Hack; and their previous best seller “The Art of Arogance”.
https://shepherd.com/bookshelf/vladimir-putin
Please buy a copy today to help fund George’s ongoing meds and to boost his pompous persona around the internet forums.
Thank you.

Posted by: SCCC | Sep 1 2023 23:13 utc | 470

Ed4@236
If NATO were attacking Russia all NATO’s strategic assets would be under attack, first with conventional weapons, then nukes… The transport aircraft would be down the list of NATO targets anyway. Lets all hope we don’t see how such a thing plays out in reality.

Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 1 2023 23:20 utc | 471

Ed4@236
If NATO were attacking Russia all NATO’s strategic assets would be under attack, first with conventional weapons, then nukes… The transport aircraft would be down the list of NATO targets anyway. Lets all hope we don’t see how such a thing plays out in reality.

Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 1 2023 23:20 utc | 472

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 23:04 utc | 236
Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 1 2023 23:20 utc | 239
Isn’t Pskov a big center for the VDV? They are involved in the SMO. But I agree that the airlifters are only involved in a peripheral manner in the SMO. It also clear that Ukraine will hit any Russian assets it can, wherever they are.
As to NATO attacking Russia, I don’t think it is very likely either. But if so, that base just about in artillery range. Certainly for HIMARs. Clearly the Russians have not been concerned. Which seems to undermine their argument against NATO expansion a bit. (The part about rolling it back to the 1990’s.)

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 23:52 utc | 473

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 23:04 utc | 236
Posted by: the pessimist | Sep 1 2023 23:20 utc | 239
Isn’t Pskov a big center for the VDV? They are involved in the SMO. But I agree that the airlifters are only involved in a peripheral manner in the SMO. It also clear that Ukraine will hit any Russian assets it can, wherever they are.
As to NATO attacking Russia, I don’t think it is very likely either. But if so, that base just about in artillery range. Certainly for HIMARs. Clearly the Russians have not been concerned. Which seems to undermine their argument against NATO expansion a bit. (The part about rolling it back to the 1990’s.)

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 23:52 utc | 474

“Whatever it takes.” “For as long as it lasts.”
Cute phrasing.
U.S. Debt at $33 Trillion rising to $36 Trillion in 2 years. Employment/Unemployment numbers just admitted to being faked by 50%.
Interest on debt already at 28% of Federal taxes collected.
So here’s the Math.
$36 Trillion at 5% will consume 50% of U.S. Federal taxes.
Long before that, the U.S. will replace Extortionist Biden, the Demented Party, and the gutless talking heads that want a war in the Ukraine, but are too Chicken Sheet to go do the fighting.

Posted by: kupkee | Sep 2 2023 0:12 utc | 475

“Whatever it takes.” “For as long as it lasts.”
Cute phrasing.
U.S. Debt at $33 Trillion rising to $36 Trillion in 2 years. Employment/Unemployment numbers just admitted to being faked by 50%.
Interest on debt already at 28% of Federal taxes collected.
So here’s the Math.
$36 Trillion at 5% will consume 50% of U.S. Federal taxes.
Long before that, the U.S. will replace Extortionist Biden, the Demented Party, and the gutless talking heads that want a war in the Ukraine, but are too Chicken Sheet to go do the fighting.

Posted by: kupkee | Sep 2 2023 0:12 utc | 476

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 23:52 utc | 240
Estonia is too in range to obliterate within 30 seconds. It’s hard to get what the point is..?
Russia will see any Nato accumulation, including deployment of nukes in Estonia and it will start ringing lot of conditions in nuclear doctrine. They can’t be hidden.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2023 0:29 utc | 477

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 1 2023 23:52 utc | 240
Estonia is too in range to obliterate within 30 seconds. It’s hard to get what the point is..?
Russia will see any Nato accumulation, including deployment of nukes in Estonia and it will start ringing lot of conditions in nuclear doctrine. They can’t be hidden.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2023 0:29 utc | 478

Some videos for today.
A very nice, brand new school has been built and opened in the DPR’s liberated coastal city of Mariupol:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/School-mariupol:4
Russian forces ensure safety of IAEA mission at Zaporozhye NPP:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/npp-safety:9
Banderites tried and failed at attacking Russia’s Bryansk oblast (18+):
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-09-01_17-19-57:a
Russian artillery pounds enemy position:
https://rutube.ru/video/d03b81646f3cc61a2e1bb58126147529/
Russian airborne forces open fire to help beat off enemy attack near the DPR’s Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/79ce7926ddabd26681af947aff197da0/
Russian attack helicopters on combat mission:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/Helicopters_3108:a

Posted by: Nate | Sep 2 2023 0:36 utc | 479

Some videos for today.
A very nice, brand new school has been built and opened in the DPR’s liberated coastal city of Mariupol:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/School-mariupol:4
Russian forces ensure safety of IAEA mission at Zaporozhye NPP:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/npp-safety:9
Banderites tried and failed at attacking Russia’s Bryansk oblast (18+):
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-09-01_17-19-57:a
Russian artillery pounds enemy position:
https://rutube.ru/video/d03b81646f3cc61a2e1bb58126147529/
Russian airborne forces open fire to help beat off enemy attack near the DPR’s Artemovsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/79ce7926ddabd26681af947aff197da0/
Russian attack helicopters on combat mission:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/Helicopters_3108:a

Posted by: Nate | Sep 2 2023 0:36 utc | 480

“Why don’t we talk about these items???”
-Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 17:06 utc | 205
We take them as read, I suppose.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Sep 2 2023 0:37 utc | 481

“Why don’t we talk about these items???”
-Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 17:06 utc | 205
We take them as read, I suppose.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Sep 2 2023 0:37 utc | 482

repetition wasn’t necessary, but I do find Armchair Warlord’s Pskov analysis fairly plausible (#233).
Russia & allies have used this tactics in Syria quite regularly:
Take some losses, while US puts itself in the wrong – use this as leverage for strategic advance (e.g. no-fly zone south of Euphrates), to which US cannot object
If it presents proof, Russia could retaliate against bases in Estonia.
But it’s risky & doesn’t lead to any strategic gains imo.

Posted by: smuks | Sep 2 2023 1:00 utc | 483

repetition wasn’t necessary, but I do find Armchair Warlord’s Pskov analysis fairly plausible (#233).
Russia & allies have used this tactics in Syria quite regularly:
Take some losses, while US puts itself in the wrong – use this as leverage for strategic advance (e.g. no-fly zone south of Euphrates), to which US cannot object
If it presents proof, Russia could retaliate against bases in Estonia.
But it’s risky & doesn’t lead to any strategic gains imo.

Posted by: smuks | Sep 2 2023 1:00 utc | 484

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 1 2023 23:01 utc | 234
Don’t think Washington would risk a major escalation just ahead of the elections.
Russia won’t either imo – but theirs are 7-8 months earlier.
NATO left Afghanistan in August 2021, but was very quick to find a new war to justify its existence. The same could happen if Ukraine cools down imo. Enough countries around “awaiting salvation”…

Posted by: smuks | Sep 2 2023 1:10 utc | 485

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 1 2023 23:01 utc | 234
Don’t think Washington would risk a major escalation just ahead of the elections.
Russia won’t either imo – but theirs are 7-8 months earlier.
NATO left Afghanistan in August 2021, but was very quick to find a new war to justify its existence. The same could happen if Ukraine cools down imo. Enough countries around “awaiting salvation”…

Posted by: smuks | Sep 2 2023 1:10 utc | 486

Russia will see any Nato accumulation, including deployment of nukes in Estonia and it will start ringing lot of conditions in nuclear doctrine. They can’t be hidden.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2023 0:29 utc | 242
——————————————————————————
Exactly the point. My only creds are playing with SALT II in 1972 after which I quit.
The conduct of nuclear war and controlling the situation from getting out of hand has been well written over the decades. There are various minutiae which will upset the ‘perceived’ balance of power. The US and Russia both are pretty clear about avoiding a ‘First Strike’ as a matter of doctrine and the minutiae are all about defining what constitutes a first strike capability.
Parking nuclear weapons around the globe, no matter where the finger on the button resides, is all part of that discussion. So is the delivery technology. F-16s are not a big deal militarily (easily destroyed) but fit the fine print of these lengthy discussion.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 2 2023 3:03 utc | 487

Russia will see any Nato accumulation, including deployment of nukes in Estonia and it will start ringing lot of conditions in nuclear doctrine. They can’t be hidden.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2023 0:29 utc | 242
——————————————————————————
Exactly the point. My only creds are playing with SALT II in 1972 after which I quit.
The conduct of nuclear war and controlling the situation from getting out of hand has been well written over the decades. There are various minutiae which will upset the ‘perceived’ balance of power. The US and Russia both are pretty clear about avoiding a ‘First Strike’ as a matter of doctrine and the minutiae are all about defining what constitutes a first strike capability.
Parking nuclear weapons around the globe, no matter where the finger on the button resides, is all part of that discussion. So is the delivery technology. F-16s are not a big deal militarily (easily destroyed) but fit the fine print of these lengthy discussion.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 2 2023 3:03 utc | 488

Pro-Ukraine fanatics are a fascinating case study of how systematic propaganda can not only manufacture permissiveness towards government policies, but also radicalise a more susceptible wing of the population into a self-sustaining asset for third-party interests.
These people get caught up in the vehicle used by propaganda – usually fear and/or empathy – and adopt someone else’s cause as their own, often indirectly and in varying degrees of unawareness.
In the case of Ukraine, the underlying motivation behind Western participation is American geopolitical/military control in the region, particularly to neutralise Russia, which is viewed as one of the main obstacles to US global hegemony.
However, this conflict-based endeavour is as useless to the Western citizen as it is downright harmful because of the human suffering it can lead to and the amount of public resources it consumes.
So in order to manufacture consent, the state colludes with media to explore the angle of empathy for the Ukrainian and fear/disgust for the Russian/Russia. It’s rare that you’ll find a pro-Ukraine fanatic directly engaged in supporting US geopolitical/military goals for their own sake, as they are contradictory to caring for Ukraine and its people. Advancing American interests is all about throwing someone else under the bus so America can stay on top, people are expendable resources.
Humanitarian and moral interventionism in this case is utterly nonsensical, but it is nonetheless the basis of Western propaganda.
This inconsistency, like any other, is not troubling for pro-Ukraine fanatics because they are willing to justify, deny and rationalise as much as necessary to uphold the propaganda they assimilated and are now propagating.
That’s why they’re ok with cluster munitions, depleted Uranium, blatant Ukrainian neonazism, Ukrainian love for Bandera/OUN, Ukrainians bombing civilians every day for 10 years, Ukrainians blocking water supply to Crimea, Ukrainians assassinating people, Ukrainian torture and murder of POW, the Ukrainian Government refusing peace talks and murdering hundreds of thousands of people in war, people being dragged off the streets and forced to fight, etc etc
It literally doesn’t matter, they’d find a way to make it fit their narrative.

Posted by: Narrative Hole | Sep 2 2023 3:17 utc | 489

Pro-Ukraine fanatics are a fascinating case study of how systematic propaganda can not only manufacture permissiveness towards government policies, but also radicalise a more susceptible wing of the population into a self-sustaining asset for third-party interests.
These people get caught up in the vehicle used by propaganda – usually fear and/or empathy – and adopt someone else’s cause as their own, often indirectly and in varying degrees of unawareness.
In the case of Ukraine, the underlying motivation behind Western participation is American geopolitical/military control in the region, particularly to neutralise Russia, which is viewed as one of the main obstacles to US global hegemony.
However, this conflict-based endeavour is as useless to the Western citizen as it is downright harmful because of the human suffering it can lead to and the amount of public resources it consumes.
So in order to manufacture consent, the state colludes with media to explore the angle of empathy for the Ukrainian and fear/disgust for the Russian/Russia. It’s rare that you’ll find a pro-Ukraine fanatic directly engaged in supporting US geopolitical/military goals for their own sake, as they are contradictory to caring for Ukraine and its people. Advancing American interests is all about throwing someone else under the bus so America can stay on top, people are expendable resources.
Humanitarian and moral interventionism in this case is utterly nonsensical, but it is nonetheless the basis of Western propaganda.
This inconsistency, like any other, is not troubling for pro-Ukraine fanatics because they are willing to justify, deny and rationalise as much as necessary to uphold the propaganda they assimilated and are now propagating.
That’s why they’re ok with cluster munitions, depleted Uranium, blatant Ukrainian neonazism, Ukrainian love for Bandera/OUN, Ukrainians bombing civilians every day for 10 years, Ukrainians blocking water supply to Crimea, Ukrainians assassinating people, Ukrainian torture and murder of POW, the Ukrainian Government refusing peace talks and murdering hundreds of thousands of people in war, people being dragged off the streets and forced to fight, etc etc
It literally doesn’t matter, they’d find a way to make it fit their narrative.

Posted by: Narrative Hole | Sep 2 2023 3:17 utc | 490

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 17:06 utc | 205

Why don’t we talk about these items???
INDY

A discussion of Ukraine/NATO military blunders would overwhelm the servers.
Nitpicking on the Russians keeps things manageable.
Speaking of which, where is shadowbanned these days …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 2 2023 3:32 utc | 491

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 1 2023 17:06 utc | 205

Why don’t we talk about these items???
INDY

A discussion of Ukraine/NATO military blunders would overwhelm the servers.
Nitpicking on the Russians keeps things manageable.
Speaking of which, where is shadowbanned these days …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 2 2023 3:32 utc | 492

What’s behind Japan’s massive military build up plan
They laud the remilitarization of Japan just as they laud the remilitarization of Germany.
The comments section is a case study in mass brainwashing.
All of a sudden it becomes clear:
The NAZIS weren’t defeated. Neither were the Japanese imperialists.
They just slipped their skins for a better host.
WW2 never ended.
I hope the next time the Red Army rolls through Berlin it doesn’t stop until it gets to London.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 2 2023 4:11 utc | 493

What’s behind Japan’s massive military build up plan
They laud the remilitarization of Japan just as they laud the remilitarization of Germany.
The comments section is a case study in mass brainwashing.
All of a sudden it becomes clear:
The NAZIS weren’t defeated. Neither were the Japanese imperialists.
They just slipped their skins for a better host.
WW2 never ended.
I hope the next time the Red Army rolls through Berlin it doesn’t stop until it gets to London.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 2 2023 4:11 utc | 494

The NAZIS weren’t defeated. Neither were the Japanese imperialists. They just slipped their skins for a better host.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 2 2023 4:11 utc | 251
####
But Arch, it’s not as if there is some remnant group of nazis, or even a descendent lineage who kept the clubhouse open. All such ideologies live eternal in the hearts of (some) men. There was the KKK. The Bader Meinhoff. The Khmer Rouge. There are the deep state fascists, neo-con imperialists, even woke leftist fascists. All ideological groups wane and reignite over decades. Such are the extremities of the bell curve of human politics.
Thus, sadly, Russia has its work cut out to effectively denazify Ukraine — in 2023, 2024, or even by 2030. There will remain the seeds of Banderaism and virulent Russophobia for decades to come in Eastern Europe. It’s way more subtle and pervasive than The Third Reich or Japanese Monarchy. It goes with an Empire Complex (vis, the USA, the EU). It’s funny how the US self-projects a dictatorial empire upon Russia and Putin when their own hegemony is the most obvious on the planet!
In my view, patriotism morphs into nationalism morphs into ultra-nationalism morphs into fascism morphs into neo-nazism. We see that in Ukraine since 1991, 2004, 2014, 2021. It has nothing to do with Hitler or Hirohito. For example, what makes Lindsay Graham such a fkn fascist/nazi/imperialist? His extreme American superiority complex.

Posted by: SCCC | Sep 2 2023 5:03 utc | 495

The NAZIS weren’t defeated. Neither were the Japanese imperialists. They just slipped their skins for a better host.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 2 2023 4:11 utc | 251
####
But Arch, it’s not as if there is some remnant group of nazis, or even a descendent lineage who kept the clubhouse open. All such ideologies live eternal in the hearts of (some) men. There was the KKK. The Bader Meinhoff. The Khmer Rouge. There are the deep state fascists, neo-con imperialists, even woke leftist fascists. All ideological groups wane and reignite over decades. Such are the extremities of the bell curve of human politics.
Thus, sadly, Russia has its work cut out to effectively denazify Ukraine — in 2023, 2024, or even by 2030. There will remain the seeds of Banderaism and virulent Russophobia for decades to come in Eastern Europe. It’s way more subtle and pervasive than The Third Reich or Japanese Monarchy. It goes with an Empire Complex (vis, the USA, the EU). It’s funny how the US self-projects a dictatorial empire upon Russia and Putin when their own hegemony is the most obvious on the planet!
In my view, patriotism morphs into nationalism morphs into ultra-nationalism morphs into fascism morphs into neo-nazism. We see that in Ukraine since 1991, 2004, 2014, 2021. It has nothing to do with Hitler or Hirohito. For example, what makes Lindsay Graham such a fkn fascist/nazi/imperialist? His extreme American superiority complex.

Posted by: SCCC | Sep 2 2023 5:03 utc | 496

Vladimir Putin: Russia will spend 1.9 trillion rubles (£16bn) on annexed Ukraine
Sept 1 (Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin said Russia planned to allocate 1.9 trillion roubles ($20 billion) from the federal budget over the next two-and-a-half years to the development of the four Ukrainian regions that Moscow last year declared to be part of its territory.
https://youtu.be/LwkU6QKu2gA?si=IowBmINLyCyJhSYN

Posted by: Magic S | Sep 2 2023 5:43 utc | 497

Vladimir Putin: Russia will spend 1.9 trillion rubles (£16bn) on annexed Ukraine
Sept 1 (Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin said Russia planned to allocate 1.9 trillion roubles ($20 billion) from the federal budget over the next two-and-a-half years to the development of the four Ukrainian regions that Moscow last year declared to be part of its territory.
https://youtu.be/LwkU6QKu2gA?si=IowBmINLyCyJhSYN

Posted by: Magic S | Sep 2 2023 5:43 utc | 498

Russians don’t believe me that Russia will be paying for this war 3 times over.
1. For military equipment instead of developing the country as Russia prepped for war.
2. Lives of soldiers that died fighting this pointless war.
3. Fixing the territory, regardless of who wins.

Posted by: sonofabullet | Sep 2 2023 5:47 utc | 499

Russians don’t believe me that Russia will be paying for this war 3 times over.
1. For military equipment instead of developing the country as Russia prepped for war.
2. Lives of soldiers that died fighting this pointless war.
3. Fixing the territory, regardless of who wins.

Posted by: sonofabullet | Sep 2 2023 5:47 utc | 500