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August 17, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-195
Comments
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 3:03 utc | 113
If you mean that the military alliance will be broken but the bureaucracy will live on, I agree. Bureaucracies are hard to break.
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Aug 18 2023 12:51 utc | 175
————————————————————-
1. The discussion among the NATO members is about what the future should hold. They have to accept that NATO as a concept has failed.
2. There will be discussions, committee meetings, etc. to define and evaluate options for improved security scenarios, large group, small group, multi-lateral, bilateral, etc.
3. The concept of a EU Army, or EU Force, will be on hold.
4. They have to figure out how to get the US off their backs without the US slaughtering them even more than it already has. The UK also needs sidelining, not easily done.
5. The EU is hard to kill and so is the Euro. Germany has been the economic and financial power house and loath to relinquish that position.
6. Olaf Scholz will be gone after the next election.
7. Germany and France need get some better leadership but the cupboard is bare and the pipeline is empty.
8. It will take years of prevaricating while the EU slowly withers away
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 14:29 utc | 201
For those that care – southfronts new domain while they fight to get the old one back is now https://southfront.press
Posted by: knighthawk | Aug 18 2023 12:19 utc | 168
Thanks. As Ive noted before, Southfront was deplatformed about six months before Alex Jones, IIRC, which says a lot about what the intelligence/corporate/government conglomerate really wants silenced the most. Even neo-nazi sites like Stormfront do not get treatment this extreme.
Posted by: UWDude | Aug 18 2023 14:32 utc | 202
@ DreamRPG | Aug 17 2023 23:52 utc | 84
What frequently strikes me about worthless sacks of excrement such as you, is how much better the nazi outcomes might have been if your salary had been spent on, for example, de-mining gear instead of futile lies directed at people who know better.
In fact, if you were really moved by the objectives you appear to support, you should be ashamed of soaking up resources.
Instead, you are a petty cog in a machine that demonstrates daily what happens when Ares tries to battle Athena.
You and your masters are losing, because you are stupid.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Aug 18 2023 14:39 utc | 203
Oliver Barrett weighs in on the future course of the war…
https://oliverboydbarrett.substack.com
We should keep to the forefront of our minds that this is not a war, fundamentally, between Russia and Ukraine, it is a war initiated and fought by the collective west with Russia and the emerging anti-western BRICS-style alliances of the Global South. It is in some senses an existential encounter of the world’s great civilizations. Therefore, the stakes are far, far higher than they are generally presented as being when the analytic frame encompasses only Ukraine or Ukraine and Russia. The stakes embrace not just these two countries, not just the neighbours of these two countries (one particularly has in mind Poland and Romania, Baltics, the Nordics) but practically all countries of the world who are directly or indirectly impacted by this war because of its nuclear dimensions, its ramifications for food security and dangers of economic instability. The triggers to Armageddon grow every day more numerous, more fragile, more sensitive and those whose hands are upon the triggers, especially – in my judgement – in the collective west, become less intelligent, less prudent, more reckless, more blinkered, more cut off from reality. Therefore, there is no end in sight – not a good thing when one is short-sighted – and there is an infinity of reasons that our leaders can draw on for ignoring a burning planet, corporate autocracy, and a selfish plutocracy.
The war continues to rage on…
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 18 2023 14:40 utc | 204
“In July, a large family from Naro-Fominsk had their house burned down, along with all their belongings and two cars. The serviceman’s wife and 5 children managed to get out of the house. The man was informed about the incident when he was on the front lines.
From the photos it is a very nice, new house….
The Russians take care of their own….”
A nice gesture, to be sure.
I take seriously Russia’s grievances and regard the war is essentially the outcome of NATO scheming to at least replace a nationalist government with a comprador regime and, if necessary, continue the process of national erosion that began in 1992. At the same time, it is all too infrequently that anyone here makes reference to the tremendous income, wealth, and power inequalities in Russia. Russia usually is ranked as having one of the worst Gini income distribution measures (that may not take PPP into account, please enlighten me if so). Working class organizations, especially unions are, while not totally suppressed, kept on the usual very short chain that we see in SCO countries. Here at the bar, Russia supporters too easily slide from support in its confrontation with NATO to broad affirmations of Russian society that use nationalist rahrah to distract from serious social problems.
Posted by: dadooronron | Aug 18 2023 14:58 utc | 205
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 14:29 utc | 201
Britain is long due for a kick in the balls, or preferably knockout. There should be some way to hit their interests globally in a way that would really cause pain in their island.
The latest issue is MI6 sending AFU Mercs to hit targets in Africa, which Podolyak confirms.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 18 2023 15:12 utc | 206
My current prediction for this conflict will be that it will turn into a frozen one. Neither side appears to be able to make any gains. Russian haven’t achieved much success going on the offensive either and their economy is slowly turning sour. Ukraine, however, also has failed and will have to concede land, as its unlikely they will be able to get it back. Best bet for both sides is probably an uneasy ceasefire. I don’t see anyone capturing significantly more land.
The biggest winner of this war is the “the West”, or rather the USA , imho. By that I don’t mean the country as a whole, but rather its government and elites. The average citizen is a lot worse everywhere due to the Ukraine war.
Ukraine, given its economy and demographics, will have a very tough road ahead in terms of recovery. I am not sure how much appetite there is for sending billions for recovery and I also don’t see, at least Eastern EU countries, having much appetite to force Ukrainian refugees to return. Maybe the seized Russian assets will help, though I am it’s not clear how much of the xxx billions can actually be located, and how this would bode well for a peace agreement.
Russia is militarily spent, they used a significant amount of its resources on this war, and basically made undone all the military reforms of the last decade. It’s significantly isolated and probably will remain so, and it lost Europe as a customer for its oil and gas, and replaced with the much less profitable India and China, so this will have an impact on their revenue stream for a decade to come. Their already bad demographics also have been made a lot worse through the war (though not nearly as bad as Ukraine). Investments in the country have absolutely dried up (not even the Chinese want to make big investments in Russia, go figure). Russia didn’t even achieve to secure the water supply for Crimea, so that’s going to cause some mayor long-term problems.
In the end, this war was an absolute failure for Russia, and will leave both countries a lot worse off.
Posted by: Down With Hiob | Aug 18 2023 15:15 utc | 207
7. Germany and France need get some better leadership but the cupboard is bare and the pipeline is empty.
8. It will take years of prevaricating while the EU slowly withers away
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 14:29 utc | 201
All the armchair generals on here, including this one, have real trouble understanding why the EU exists. If it’s not militaristic, ready to fire off nuclear missiles in all directions, ready to play global strategic chess, an organisation is incomprehensible. But the EU is not a military organisation, but rather an economic and social one. And, as we’ve discovered, does not need to be, as there is no real threat to it, other than that imagined by the trigger-happy east Europeans, who have ancestral obsessions about slaughtering each other and the Russians. By the way, most of these obsessions are kept alive by East Europeans overseas safe (as they imagine) in the US, though when the nuclear bombs start to fall they may not be as safe as they think.
Once the EU gets over the current idiots, they’ll be fine, as what the EU does is needed and cannot be dispensed with. re France, Macron is fine, but not for the armchair general I’m replying to. The real problem in France, I hear, is that there’s no-one to succeed him once his second and last term finishes.
Posted by: laguerre | Aug 18 2023 15:16 utc | 208
Re: Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 14:29 utc | 201
“They have to figure out how to get the US off their backs without the US slaughtering them”….
Most EU nation states have zero interest in getting “US off their backs”… they love the corruption, kickbacks, money printing, collective nation welfare states, have zero need to care about their individual citizens as Baerbock publicly stated, but that most EU nations exude a very everyday.
A change in governance will not change the collective elite’s stranglehold on the political leadership of any nation.
The citizens of France have been in revolution since the “yellow vests”… had not yielded a change in leadership & never will.
The EU “army” or whatever collective measures to re-constitute some kind of united military force in the EU, will only result in a Centralized US run EU NATO, where a select number and amount of weapons manufacturers & suppliers, namely US Boeing ect, and a handful of other manufacturers will be “allowed” in the new NATO on the pretense of “streamlining “ protection, with only the chosen corporations making multi billions the the US will determine.
Eventually Hungary & the like, may leave EU, and a cascade of other nations following, but odds don’t favor that.
The US isn’t going to be satisfied with the “Ukraine” project until the EU, every individual nation state, is saddled with at least 3-4 IMF loans, a World Bank loan or 2 in every nation state, and ALL military contractors & weapons manufacturers are US approved complete with US kickbacks, as well as US associated or energy that US controls or benefits from.
A totally subjugated and dependent EU is the goal. And one that looks reached already to me. It’s just working out the fine print.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 18 2023 15:28 utc | 209
@ laguerre | Aug 18 2023 15:16 utc | 208
but it doesn’t look like the eu will get over the current idiots…. they are beholden to the usa on all levels – germany in particular… what does germany do at this point? cancel the afd – the one party that has a different idea on usa servitude? looks like it…
Posted by: james | Aug 18 2023 15:28 utc | 210
@knighthawk | Aug 18 2023 10:43 utc | 154
Thanks for the update about what the creeps have done to SouthFront. I am also no longer able to access it via its website. The message you cite is also available via Telegram, so I presume that is their Telegram channel:
https://t.me/southfronteng/37832
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 18 2023 15:29 utc | 211
From the photos it is a very nice, new house….
The Russians take care of their own….”
A nice gesture, to be sure.
it is all too infrequently that anyone here makes reference to the tremendous income, wealth, and power inequalities in Russia. Russia usually is ranked as having one of the worst Gini income distribution measures (that may not take PPP into account, please enlighten me if so). Working class organizations, especially unions are, while not totally suppressed, kept on the usual very short chain that we see in SCO countries. Here at the bar, Russia supporters too easily slide from support in its confrontation with NATO to broad affirmations of Russian society that use nationalist rahrah to distract from serious social problems.
Posted by: dadooronron | Aug 18 2023 14:58 utc | 205
I just checked….
Gini Coefficient…. Nation
63.0 South Africa
53.9 Hong Kong
49.8 Panama
48.9 Brazil
41.9 Turkey
40.3 Bulgaria
39.4 United States
38.0 Laos
36.0 Russia
The data shows that this poster is a NATO/CIA/NSA/MI6 TROLL…
Rather than comment upon Russia’s government caring for it’s own, like the ICC, he mis-characterizes Russian hospitality into criminal activity.
Meanwhile…..
Ignoring the multi-billion dollar Ukrainian organ trafficing schemes….
Ignoring the Ukrainian child trafficing schemes….
Ignoring the Ukrainian BioWeapons schemes…
INDY
38.2 China
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 18 2023 15:29 utc | 212
Indy@193…it would not have dragged anywhere had Russia crushed the CnC centres. Had Russia dropped the bridges, had Russia blown up the rail tunnels…..I just heard that they did it the other day, very well camouflaged, or lack of will for prosecution? And you figure it’ll drag on? Oy Vey!!
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 18 2023 15:41 utc | 213
@162
Wrong question!
Serbs ve managed to down unseeable undetectable F117
U want to tell me gas station Russia is not able to
protect their citizens from drone attacks?
Pls come on!
So Right questions :
1)
Why Russia had not prepared the armed forces
for drone warefare & drone protection?
2)
Why Russia had not invested money like western countries
into drone warefare?
Instead of burning money for useless football championship
& winter games it would be bettet investing into drone warefare
Instead of parking 300bn on enemies accounts abroud it would be better invested in drones warfare
3)
Why Russia is not confiscating money from Oligarch traitors for investment into drone warefare?
Posted by: tesla | Aug 18 2023 15:43 utc | 214
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 18 2023 13:29 utc | 186
Thank you for your posts, Dr. George. Very much appreciated, especially this one.
Posted by: juliania | Aug 18 2023 15:58 utc | 215
@migueljose | Aug 18 2023 12:20 utc | 169
Wow, that is one huge truthbomb from Lukashenko. Thanks for posting that! I wonder what goes on in the mind of that journalist after receiving such a lecture.
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 18 2023 16:05 utc | 216
You and your masters are losing, because you are stupid.
Well said. If logic and reason were on your side you would have a chance. They aren’t and you don’t.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 18 2023 16:08 utc | 217
Saw this quote on voxday, brilliant:
If the Ukrainians had any sense of self-preservation at all, its elite 82nd Air Assault Brigade would be rounding up the NATO puppets in Kiev and putting them on trial for treason and war crimes instead of dutifully obliterating itself on three lines of sophisticated Russian defenses.
Posted by: Madmarc | Aug 18 2023 16:17 utc | 218
Something is wrong.
For the second day in a row, the ‘clobber list’ doesn’t seem to show much difference. Indeed, it is less than many days near the beginning of the Ukr. offensive. A couple tanks, a couple aircraft…..
Where’s this last glorious phase III ‘to the last Ukrainian” offensive? I don’t see evidence of it.
Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 18 2023 16:29 utc | 219
The most screaming irony, hypocrisy and inversion of truth is reported on the godawful fucking BBC on its main news programme; they report the meeting of Biden with Japan and South Korea as being “a massive boost for Biden’s presidency in acting as the World’s policeman and peacemaker! “.
Jesus wept!
Posted by: Vragtes | Aug 18 2023 16:35 utc | 220
Russia has just banned 50 journalist / war corispodennts.
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 18 2023 16:51 utc | 221
WaPo, Aug 18
US intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won’t fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea in this year’s push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia’s brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 18 2023 16:53 utc | 222
laguerre@209
The EU has always found support from a variety of, often opposing, interests. It was not long ago when it was seen, by some, as a Third Bloc between the US Empire and its enemies. The Euro, after all, was Saddam’s choice of currency to replace the dollar in oil trading.
There was a carry over effect from the post war social reforms, demanded by the left acceded to by nationalists and christians which led many to see the EU as a social union guaranteeing minimal living standards while protecting individual rights.
Such ideas were easy enough to entertain in an era of economic growth, relative prosperity and social stability all of which coincided with the era in which the six were transformed into the EEC and later the EU.
Laguerre clearly recalls those days fondly.
They are, however, over, the EU is now a byword for neo-liberalism in society, the sainted Macron has spent the better part of his Presidential terms rolling back the advances towards a decent society made since the war. His term has been characterised by brutal police repression and mass demonstrations, as the reality sinks in that he always was the candidate of the right, from the old Action Francaise and the Petainist collaborators to the big capitalists and the, not inconsiderable, imperialist party which is currently urging Laguerre’s political pin-up boy to get stuck into North Africa to preserve the Empire.
The EU, as the past few years have made quite clear, is, in all its functions, from foreign policy to the Central Bank’s fiscal games nothing more than a convenience for the US, giving Washington One Stop Shopping with its bewildering number of clients, satraps, slaves and puppets.
So long as it exists it will continue on the course it mapped out with Greece: the impoverishment of the population and the increasing wealth and power of Washington’s comprador oligarchy as layer after layer of public services and assets is privatised.
Posted by: bevin | Aug 18 2023 17:03 utc | 223
The EU illegally strips sovereignty from European countries.
UN Charter: The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 18 2023 17:14 utc | 224
One day after southfront.org posted https://southfront.press/save-the-children-another-concern-of-the-state-or-new-crimes-of-the-kyiv-regime-against-children/ southfront.org was removed from DNS! Nice Western values! OMG!
Posted by: Wolle | Aug 18 2023 17:24 utc | 225
@sean the leprechaun | Aug 17 2023 19:18 utc | 29
Actually while Azov was in charge of Mariupol for a few years they routinely would arse rape Russian women and then squeeze a tube of superglue in their anuses. If those women did not get to a surgeon in a hospital they would die an agonizing death. And since surgeons in hospitals were scarce in Mariupol in those times lots of women probably died. But yes, foam up the arse does sound like Azov as well. Those pows would have died an agonizing death, that foam expands and hardens so with no surgeon to help them it would have been death in weeks or less. The Russians lived through Genghis Khan’s wars, so these NATO tactics won’t faze them too much, but eventually there will be payback with interest for these actions. The East regularly produces mass murderers of note, Genghis, Stalin, Pol Pot, another one of them will arise again.
Posted by: gT | Aug 18 2023 17:29 utc | 226
Britain is long due for a kick in the balls, or preferably knockout.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 18 2023 15:12 utc | 206
———————————————————
They are slowly getting there. The sun has set on the empire. The quality of life continues to decline. The population composition keeps changing and not for the better, like France.
I refuse to fly through Heathrow. It looked like an African capital last time I came through it.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 17:37 utc | 227
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 14:29 utc | 201
Posted by: laguerre | Aug 18 2023 15:16 utc | 208
If you’re a USnato bureaucrat I think your prospects in the intermediate future are fine. Remember why the organisation exists: to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down.
The first task is easy since the Russians are happy to stay away. The second and third are interconnected. And revolve around the fact that Germany and italy are still under military occupation.
They will stay so, but that has to be marketed. So, yes there will be lots of conferences doing lots of analysis and coming up with many scenarios.
But added to that I think there will be a new area: values. You know, peace, freedom, democracy, even love. The reason NATO will do the work is that it has justify it’s existence, find something for all it employees to do and — as I think pepe escobar pointed out recently — most other tools of Washington are dull.
As for the EU I see it’s future as more problematic. I used to be the hidden political branch of NATO, but as it has become the open subsidiary of the state department, who needs it? 30 years ago it had swagger, it represented the hope for a better future. Today, if the EU is your solution, what the hell is your problem?
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Aug 18 2023 17:43 utc | 228
Posted by: laguerre | Aug 18 2023 15:16 utc | 209
I suggest you do some reading about the militarization of the EU. There is plenty to read. You can start by simply googling that as a search term, and then, take your pick.
Here is one: The Militarization of the European Union, edited by Kees van der Pijl
https://www.cambridgescholars.com/product/978-1-5275-6370-4
The thing is – idealization does not equal reality. If you believe in the idea of European integration on the basis of equality, peace, harmony (to use the pertinent Chinese concept), mutually beneficial cooperation, constructive and sincere foreign policy and economy managed for the benefit of all citizens in each EU state, then it is imperative that you take the time to study the history, practice and the present nature, structure and functioning of the EU.
As someone smartly said, and I repeat here again – this is not the only or the best EU. That is why it is falling apart. The quicker that happens the better for all, because a new vision can then be contemplated.
Posted by: JB | Aug 18 2023 17:46 utc | 229
A couple of hours ago BBC Radio World Service announced that US.gov has approved a plan by Denmark and Holland to supply F16s to Ukraine.
Everyone involved is being delightfully vague about the quantity and timeline for the training and delivery schedules.
But this is an AmeriKKKan war so the image is always going to be more relevant than any facts which may or may not emerge from the blizzard of hype, balderdash and wishful thinking we’ve become used to during the Ukraine SNAFU.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 18 2023 17:48 utc | 230
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/08/18/fqxf-a18.html
This site’s line on Ukraine is very, very confused, although getting some basic facts correct: it was provoked by imperialism, the Ukies are led by Nazis and are being used as proxies.
But they condemn Putin as much as they do Biden for the war and they have overestimated the power of US imperialism consistently.
Nonetheless, the article is valuable as it shows what happens to Ukrainian workers when they oppose the war even with mere pacifism.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 18 2023 17:51 utc | 231
Eventually Hungary & the like, may leave EU, and a cascade of other nations following, but odds don’t favor that.
A totally subjugated and dependent EU is the goal. And one that looks reached already to me
Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 18 2023 15:28 utc | 210
Hungary might want to but they’re isolated from the world. The nuclear fuel from Russia had to be transported by plane, no other ways possible anymore. They might leave EU if they get a border with Russia, which will never be, Russians are blocked in Donbass and 99.9% they won’t move out of its borders when they will get there, some day. Hungary’s pipe resources depend on Turkey’s mood or the pioes can go boom like NS. Poland can also block their border to Ukr with a little invasion, going to Black Sea. Russia will trade directly only where they have borders or direct sea routes, the rest will be blocked by natostan or forced to use expensive natostan proxies.
For the second part I share your opinion, EU is already a US puppet and it was invented for exactly this reason. The “garden” is pure trash
Posted by: rk | Aug 18 2023 17:54 utc | 232
Know what I noticed scanning TG channels and videos since the start of the SMO? That the aim of the Russians has gotten progressively better, in the last six months it’s gone from excellent to deadeye. All of it, rifleman, mortar and rocket guys, artillery, tankers, copters, planes.
That’s a big force multiplier.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 18 2023 17:54 utc | 233
Here is the thing – for the western militaries Ukraine represents a chance to try out combat strategies and hardware on a real-world battlefield as long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight – what incentive do they have to stop before Ukraine is completely exhausted? None, as far as I can see. No escalation using NATO forces as they can’t risk losing that fight or risking nuclear conflict, but Ukraine can be sacrificed with relatively little risk.
Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 18 2023 17:59 utc | 234
@231
Everyone involved is being delightfully vague about the quantity and timeline for the [F-16] training and delivery schedules.
TheDrive, Aug 11
Ukraine Situation Report: F-16 Pilot Training May Be Delayed Until January . .An initial cadre of Ukrainian pilots may not be fully qualified to fly F-16s until next summer at the earliest. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 18 2023 18:10 utc | 235
According to NYT the Ukraine:Russia casualty ratio is 1:3… apparently Mediazona/BBC and alt media types have been getting this all wrong and Ukraine is winning. The ministry of truth report:
Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000, U.S. Officials Say
Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded
Allowing for Russia’s lack of information on its own losses, the order or magnitude differences NYT reports are implausible. Hiding 300,000 casualties is a trick even Putin can’t manage. The USSR couldn’t hide a decade of losses in Afghanistan of 15,000 dead.
Posted by: upstater | Aug 18 2023 18:15 utc | 236
Re F16s
Netherlands news today:
Outgoing Minister Wopke Hoekstra of Foreign Affairs said on X, formerly Twitter, that he welcomes Washington’s decision. “Now, we will discuss the subject further with our European partners.”
In May the Netherlands signaled it would donate to Ukraine some of its roughly three dozen active and retired F-16s after the training. (Forbes, May 2023).
According to Bloomberg, also in May: The Netherlands currently has 42 F-16 fighter jets in its inventory, 24 of which are currently being used by the Dutch army and cannot be sent … NL has been “spearheading officials in the US” to allow sending F16s to Ukraine.
From a detailed article in June: Both Belgian and Dutch F-16s have provision for the carriage of B61 tactical nuclear gravity bombs under the NATO ‘dual-key’ agreement.
All in all, it looks increasingly as if the Netherlands could be the best placed among F-16 operators to supply Ukraine with the fighters it has long campaigned for, whether as training assets to be used outside of Ukraine, as frontline fighters for the Ukrainian Air Force, or both.
Source: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/dozens-of-dutch-f-16s-were-just-freed-up-potentially-for-ukraine
See also: https://www.government.nl/documents/diplomatic-statements/2023/07/12/statement-joint-coalition-on-f-16-training-of-the-ukrainian-air-force
Posted by: JB | Aug 18 2023 18:21 utc | 237
Well, on the Gini coefficient I stand corrected. Regarding trolling, I’d suggest you consider what you’re implying: have we really arrived at a watershed moment, when NATO trolls are obliged to admit NATO’s responsibility for this disaster in order to troll? That’s a kind of nth degree chess that seems fairly self-defeating, don’t you think?
And it seems we’ve left out any references to unions. My impression is that Russia has essentially taken up the China model, which is to allow some local protest to blow off steam but to thoroughly crack down on any attempt to organize beyond local grievances. The ferocity of the good doctor’s reaction leads me to suspect that he thinks that manifestations of worker discontent can only arise because of outside agitation, and the supposed real social harmony must be maintained at all costs. In that respect Stalinism had a lot in common with anti-union forces in the US and other countries.
Posted by: dadooronron | Aug 18 2023 18:28 utc | 238
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 14:29 utc | 201
Posted by: laguerre | Aug 18 2023 15:16 utc | 209
Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Aug 18 2023 17:43 utc | 229
Posted by: JB | Aug 18 2023 17:46 utc | 230
——————————————————–
Germany has been the powerhouse of the EU. As the Greek debacle demonstrated, the Germans are also the financial control over the EU, never mind the London Agreement of 1954.
There are some signs of the rats leaving the sinking ship, IMHO.
Royal Dutch Shell relocated to the UK, losing the Royal and the Dutch.
The Germans are not squeling as one might expect but perhaps they are loyal and acting civilized. The story below is a tell. So is the increase of VWs investment in China.
German chemicals group BASF has inaugurated the first plant of its Zhanjiang Verbund site in southern China. The plant will produce 60,000 metric tons of engineering plastics compounds per year for the automotive and electronics industries, bringing BASF’s total capacity of engineering plastics in Asia Pacific to 420,000 metric tons from 2023.
The company expects to invest up to 10 billion euros in the site, which will be its third-largest globally when complete in 2030.
BASF has also stated that it will shutter and raze all its German properties.
Pretty blunt.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 18:28 utc | 239
My emphasis
The Russian Foreign Ministry recommended that the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine turn their weapons against the Kiev regime.
▪️ Surrendered Ukrainians are guaranteed decent humane treatment.
▪️At the same time, the criminal Kiev regime continues to shell Russian cities and villages with NATO weapons, killing and maiming civilians, including children.
— Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova
https://t.me/ukraine_watch/7228
If you ask me, this looks like an end game.
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 18 2023 18:37 utc | 240
The EU quit reporting financial matters a few years ago, but prior to that Germany was by far the leading source of EU funding, and Poland was the leading recipient of EU funds. . . .Now we have Poland acting like the new Germany, with its military matters, including major purchases, while Germany is now saying it can’t hit the two percent US requirement.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 18 2023 18:49 utc | 241
❗️Russian General Kirillov confirms that COVID was an “artificial biological crisis” created by the US Government.
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 18 2023 18:49 utc | 242
@ unimperator, §207:
The British are certainly overdue some just punishment. Michael Oswald´s film “The Spider´s Web” spells it out:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np_ylvc8Zj8&t=122s [80 mins]
Most of Africa is still colonized as, to a lesser extent, is much of South America and parts of Asia.
The British have restored their empire as US & Canada plus Australia & NZ – but it´s mostly wielded financially rather than militarily. That´s why they´re freaking out about BRICS and the return of a gold standard – or indeed any standard independent of their control. That would really spell the end of their venal, parasitic empire.
The Ukraine catastrophe has blunted them militarily but they won´t stop until they´re killed off financially. And Brandon is doing a good job of that . . .
Posted by: John Marks | Aug 18 2023 18:51 utc | 243
Eighthman | Aug 18 2023 16:29 utc | 220
When the Ukrainian offensive stalls, then the available troops still alive will have been moved to hold weak lines elsewhere (probably to Kupiansk area). This opens the prospect of bringing forward the date anticipated for the Russian big offensive.
The “Trident siege” as it has been named. (I don’t see where the word “siege” comes in?)
Looking at the Weeb union latest, he makes the case for a triple thrust from the north, (Tchernobyl environs), then from Sumy area, and also from the south. Putting what remains of the Ukrainian forces into a giant cauldron.
His estimates of the quantity of trained Russian troops (plus Wagner) are enormous, in the hundreds of thousands. (800’000 plus)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cerDi0-pcbM
I wonder if General Armageddon has a new career opportunity in mind?
*****
Meanwhile in Syria the US is digging-in with the idea of cutting the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon supply lines. Hasaka is the centre for the moment. So the US is trying to stir up trouble by using local tribes as leverage.
*
Lebanon, the arrival of a gas drilling ship to start on bloc 9(?) is possibly the cause of increased tensions, as Lebanon having a real source of separate income is anethema to Israel. (Who has ambitions to be THE unique gas hub for the Med, and the EU.) I suppose the four years usually left between each Israeli war is about up, and Lebanon might be due for another war.
Posted by: upstater | Aug 18 2023 18:15 utc | 237
Why do you say “apparently” Mediazona and the BBC have gotten this all wrong? The base for Mediazona (counting gravestones or the probate registry) and the BBC’s system (counting obituaries) would be more of a minimum number, wouldn’t it? For example, not all the young kids would end up in the probate registry.
“The USSR couldn’t hide a decade of losses in Afghanistan of 15,000 dead.” Why do you say that? What is the official Russian number on the number of casualties Russian forces took in Afghanistan? And a link to it would be great because when I have looked I never found an official USSR or Russian number.
I see nothing about the article saying anyone is winning. In fact it says this: “The troop deaths could have a greater impact for Ukraine in a war that is far from over.”
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 19:04 utc | 245
Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 18 2023 19:00 utc | 245 “Lebanon, the arrival of a gas drilling ship to start on bloc 9(?) is possibly the cause of increased tensions, as Lebanon having a real source of separate income is anethema to Israel.”
Given the way the world is, in the Middle East, the opposite is true. Since Israel made that deal on the EEZ boundaries, Israel would like Lebanon to do some development there. That way Israel has leverage in that they can wreck that expensive investment if needed. On the other side Lebanon would have second thoughts about doing something that would give Israel a reason to wreck it.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 19:11 utc | 246
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 18 2023 18:49 utc | 242
You are looking for this: ?
https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/eu-budget/motion/today_en#midterm-review-of-the-mff-2021-2027
Stuff here too:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1135294/poland-s-contributions-to-and-receipts-from-the-eu-budget/
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 19:16 utc | 247
The EU quit reporting financial matters a few years ago,……..
Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 18 2023 18:49 utc | 242
Were you referring to Date: 28 October 2020 ESMA32-63-1041? PUBLIC STATEMENT
European common enforcement priorities for 2020 annual financial reports
Or something else?
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Aug 18 2023 19:16 utc | 248
There are some signs of the rats leaving the sinking ship, IMHO.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 18:28 utc | 240
Such as have always existed, in the view of the armchair generals. The EU is feeble and unwarlike so can be dismissed to extinction.
another round of the same ( as we’ve seen for 20 years here on MoA).
Posted by: laguerre | Aug 18 2023 19:26 utc | 249
The EU is NOT unwarlike, as laguerre thinks. Have you heard Von Der Leyen speak? Economic war IS war. The EU citizens dream that they are not at war, but they are waging economic war.
Posted by: Zina | Aug 18 2023 19:35 utc | 250
Posted by: dadooronron | Aug 18 2023 18:28 utc | 239
I don’t think you are a troll. We all make mistakes and I think it is rare for a troll to admit a mistake. Anyway, I like your handle because as a young teenager I loved the song. It’s one of the Phil Specter Wall of Sound songs. I thought the Chrystals were white girls and was surprised when I saw them on TV and they were black and I still wished my name was Bill. This one goes out to all the Bills at the bar.https://youtu.be/v-qqi7-Q19k
Posted by: Chas | Aug 18 2023 19:36 utc | 251
Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 19:11 utc | 247
Unlikely, Israel does not want any real competitors. (See Iran as well as Lebanon) Do not forget the gas fields off the Gazan coast and the Oil/Gas underneath the Golan heights. The gas/oil pipelines from Iran to the Med (three versions) were one part of the cause of the Syrian “crisis” when Assad refused the US demands.
Plus – of course Herzbollah.
***
The Russians are closely involved in Syria, and I have always thought that there must also be gas or oil off their coast, at the top end of the Levantine basin, but they no means to search for it.
But it is clear that the US wants to cause problems for the Russian by any means possible. Witness the “close-calls” between aircraft and drones. Al-Tanf supply the terrorists for the south, and the use of four Poseidon spy drones during the period the Syrians and Russians were doing air exercises.
@simplex | Aug 18 2023 19:52 utc | 254
Can Russia also use cluster bombs?
They can if they want to.
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 18 2023 20:08 utc | 254
Re: Southfront
Switch your browser to use Secure DNS. Mozilla and Chromium based browsers all support it now. Search your browser’s settings for ‘DNS’ and you should find it.
The good of Secure DNS is that man-in-the-middle snoops cannot see the URLs of the sites you visit. The bad of Secure DNS is that the defaults provided by most browsers as alternatives to your ISP’s DNS are a bit questionable themselves, but it is still an improvement. Ex:
Google Public DNS – It’s Google. Need I say more?
OpenDNS – Owned by Cisco, and they are as bad as Google.
Cloudflare – Chummy with the CIA.
All three of the above still resolve Southfront despite being evil.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 18 2023 20:15 utc | 255
Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 19:04 utc | 246
Please add a /sarc tag to my first sentence if it makes you feel better.
USSR casualties and death per wikipedia.org:
The total official fatalities of the Soviet Armed Forces, frontier, and internal security troops came to 14,453.[14]
Posted by: upstater | Aug 18 2023 20:22 utc | 256
Can Russia also use cluster bombs?
Posted by: simplex | Aug 18 2023 19:52 utc | 254
I don’t think Russia even has that type of munitions.
Posted by: MiniMo | Aug 18 2023 20:24 utc | 257
@dadooronron | Aug 18 2023 18:28
…In that respect Stalinism had a lot in common with anti-union forces in the US and other countries.
With going off-topic, forgive me b, for I have sinned. I just have to say I always cringe when I hear the word “Stalinism”. There’s no such thing as “Stalinism”. The term originated with Trotsky who could never reconcile himself with Lenin. Stalin was a Marxist-Leninist. By using the term “Stalinism”, you’re giving Trotsky’s argument that the Soviets was a dictatorship of a crazy madman and the 3 trials in the late ’30’s were frame-ups, using torture and fabrications, of innocent men. That line was promoted by Krushchev, Gorbachev, and cold-war warriors. However, there has never been any evidence to support this view. There’s now a great deal of evidence that corroborates the Moscow Trials testimony, including the discovery that Trotsky lied about them. The irony is that Trotsky was the crazy madman and Stalin will never be forgiven for defeating the nazis that Trotsky conspired with.
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 18 2023 20:32 utc | 258
Watch and discuss:
Wagner’s New Meatgrinder | Operation Trident Siege | Russia’s Plan To End The War
And, why not? It’s a good plan, it’s a bold plan, it’s also pretty crazy as in risky. Russia has been risk averse since getting slapped down hard in the first part of the SMO, but it does have a war to win before USA, NATO, Ukraine and all the world’s gangsters can reorganized and rebuild.
I posting because it brings all the pieces together from the last six months, including Li Shangfu’s recent visit to Belarus. And, including the Wagner silliness which no one will ever convince me wasn’t theater.
Something has to give, I doubt the Putin admin wants Russia to sit around with a NATO sword hanging over it’s head for a couple generations. A Korean DMZ on the Dniper settlement leaves Russia in the position of N. Korea (perpetually threatened) for that reason that’s not going to happen.
And, obviously the MoD has an end game plan and any end game plan will have to be big and bold as among other things Russia has to reaffirm it’s super power status and put the fear of God back into any contenders.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 18 2023 20:34 utc | 259
scepticalSOB@134….avast Yee me hearty, what yee Pirates be sailing on when an overabundance of sea drones surrounds their wee Curragh….aye, and Davy Jones laughs.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 18 2023 20:38 utc | 260
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 18 2023 20:32 utc | 259
Typical Stalinist bullshit.
Trotsky collaboration with Nazis. Just focus on that one allegation and you’ll realize what Zeke’s all about.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 18 2023 20:40 utc | 261
So Right questions :
1)
Why Russia had not prepared the armed forces
for drone warefare & drone protection?
2)
Why Russia had not invested money like western countries
into drone warefare?
Instead of burning money for useless football championship
& winter games it would be bettet investing into drone warefare
Instead of parking 300bn on enemies accounts abroud it would be better invested in drones warfare
3)
Why Russia is not confiscating money from Oligarch traitors for investment into drone warefare?
Posted by: tesla | Aug 18 2023 15:43 utc | 215
Apparently, you have been comatose for the past 540 days….
Russia learned from her mistakes….
To buy time citizens like Colonel Cassad bought off the shelf, Chinese drones to give to the boys on the front line
Shiogu contracted with Iran for drones to meet Russia’s immediate needs, most notably the Geran-2
Shiogu got on the stick and prodded the Russian Military Supply Complex to develop new and improved drones, most notably the Lancet came out of this….
Per a recent post by WarGonzo…. For the first time since the beginning of the war, troops in the field as said by the grunts… the guys on the front line… have everything they need….
I recently saw a report of the defeat of a Ukie Recon In Force operation at the Cossack Dachas on the Deniper… The Ukies had six (6) 120 mm mortars in support…. The Russians deployed 8 FSB drones to find and destroy them… All were destroyed… Following which the trapped Russian platoon was able to fight it’s way out of encirclement and return to their lines…
So…. the Russians made mistakes… many mistakes in the beginning…
BUT….
They learn fast…
I remind everyone…. this is a war….. wars are not straight line affairs…
There is a very long way to go….
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 18 2023 20:41 utc | 262
Can Russia also use cluster bombs?
Posted by: simplex | Aug 18 2023 19:52 utc | 254
I don’t think Russia even has that type of munitions.
Posted by: MiniMo | Aug 18 2023 20:24 utc | 258
I have it on good account that Russia has cluster bombs, shells, MLRS rockets, and mortar bombs aplenty…
Occasionally they use them….
BUT…..
Use of cluster munitions essentially mines the place they were used, because a large percentage of the bomblets fail to detonate at the time, and remain in place where…. when disturbed… they go off…
Colonel MacGregor and Scott Ritter addressed this…. saying that wheeled vehicles find it very difficult to cross terrain previously covered by cluster munitions, because they set the bomblets off….
Apparenly, the bomblets are too small to damage tracked vehicles…
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 18 2023 20:47 utc | 263
Posted by: upstater | Aug 18 2023 18:15 utc | 237
What’s interesting about the recent Western statistics for Russian casualties in Afghanistan is that they now closely track with the official Soviet statistics (14k v 15K); however, contemporary Western military analysts always called into question that figure, suggesting it was twice as high, or even higher (28-30+K) during the majority of the conflict. This suggests two things.
1. Russian casualty figures are surprisingly accurate
2. The West has a subjective approach to Russian casualties based on what narrative needs reinforcing and which points need to be scored.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 19:04 utc | 246
‘What is the official Russian number on the number of casualties Russian forces took in Afghanistan? And a link to it would be great because when I have looked I never found an official USSR or Russian number.’
This is as good as you’re going to get, as Novosti were often used to confirm figures that were officially approved but sensitive to be released.
https://www.deseret.com/1988/5/19/18766422/up-to-15-000-soldiers-died-in-war-soviet-says
The Soviet bureaucracy’s methods of repatriating the fallen soldiers in Afghanistan to their loved ones, counter-intuitively, worked against concealing the level of losses to the general population, and given that It’s doubtful the Russians have suddenly fallen out of love with paperwork and stamping it, I doubt they could conceal 10 times those losses today. The article is just one of many this SMO that is wish-casting, narrative shaping, or sometimes simply outright projection.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 18 2023 20:53 utc | 264
“…Trotsky who could never reconcile himself with Lenin…”
Utter hogwash. Stalinist tripe manufactured to help a dimwitted, murderous thug usurp the legacy of Lenin.
The most final and absolute discrediting of Stalin’s lies and ignorance and the validation of Trotsky’s perspective has been history itself.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 18 2023 21:02 utc | 265
Posted by: upstater | Aug 18 2023 20:22 utc | 257 “The total official fatalities of the Soviet Armed Forces, frontier, and internal security troops came to 14,453.[14]”
This page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War
Footnote 14 goes to here: https://www.armytimes.com/news/2010/11/ap-afghanistan-milestone-112610/ and displays a 404 error.
Given it is the armytimes.com website I don’t think that is an official USSR or Russian source.
I have been interested in finding an official source for a long time but all I have ever found searching Soviet documents is a couple of speeches given by Russian officials where numbers where sort of tossed out. The numbers are in that ballpark but none agree.
This site: https://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Soviet-Afghan_War says “Offical Soviet Figures” but gives no source for that. I have read about 1/3 of the references listed there and only remember that the numbers on losses where vague.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 21:04 utc | 266
Lukashenko said in an interview to a Ukrainian reporter that AFU had 45k losses during the counter-offensive, 8:1 casualties, RU has 250k reserve in training, which is more than on the front lines in Ukraine. Ukraine will become a land locked state, Poland will take the western part with US help and RU will cut it off from the south.
Tbh, I believe that is what will happen, also judging by reports from Poland and their mercenary saying Polish government will bankrupt and collapse Ukraine and take their land.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 18 2023 21:07 utc | 267
Know what I noticed scanning TG channels and videos since the start of the SMO? That the aim of the Russians has gotten progressively better, in the last six months it’s gone from excellent to deadeye. All of it, rifleman, mortar and rocket guys, artillery, tankers, copters, planes.
That’s a big force multiplier.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 18 2023 17:54 utc | 234
——————————————————————-
I noticed something along the same lines. There are a few videos of textbook land warfare execution.
IMHO, the Russkies are now competing with each other on how best to conduct warfare and showing results.
In the meantime, The Pentagon is waiting for its nails to dry while NATO would like to extract more government funds and obsolete weapons.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 21:20 utc | 268
…Gini…
Posted by: dadooronron | Aug 18 2023 14:58 utc | 206
Gini coefficient is a very poor metric, because, frankly, it measures the wrong thing.
The wealth of very wealthy people is usually dominated by risky investments into productive assets (socls, etc). As such, it serves society. The real issue with wealth disparity is control it gives to the wealthy.
The Gini ratio, however, totally fails to measure non-economic control by governments and managers of the assets, and by the media. The more regulated the economy is, the stronger the position of financial “elite”, the more media is concentrated and prone to act as atteck dogs to keep straying owners and managers in line, the more the actual control is concentrated in a tiny group of plutocrats.
If you use actual control instead of nominal ownership and factor government in, the “real Gini” for the Western countries will easily blow that of Russia or China out of the water.
Posted by: averros | Aug 18 2023 21:21 utc | 269
Posted by: Milites | Aug 18 2023 20:53 utc | 265
I disagree with “Russian casualty figures are surprisingly accurate” in Afghanistan because during the war the Russian government didn’t report much in the way of casualties and suppressed those people did attempt to figure out the cost. It was only when the mothers of those killed started getting organized did the bureaucracy get sand thrown in the gears.
I agree with this: “I doubt they could conceal 10 times those losses today. The article is just one of many this SMO that is wish-casting, narrative shaping, or sometimes simply outright projection.”
Yeah, inability to conceal that level of losses works for both sides.
Some of the numbers in the NYT & Post article are really out there. They have the KIA to WIA numbers in a worse ratio than WWII on the Eastern front when there was not much in the way of antibiotics.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 21:21 utc | 270
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 21:04 utc | 267
The main statistical works on Soviet and Russian losses in the 20th Century were by general Grigoriy Fedotovich Krivosheyev published in the 1990’s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigori_F._Krivosheev) – who wrote a statistical study of Soviet casualties –
Russian wiki article here
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%93%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%84_%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8_%D1%81%D0%BD%D1%8F%D1%82:_%D0%9F%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B8_%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B6%D1%91%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%85_%D0%A1%D0%B8%D0%BB_%D0%A1%D0%A1%D0%A1%D0%A0_%D0%B2_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%85,_%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D1%85_%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%B9%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%8F%D1%85_%D0%B8_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%85_%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%84%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%85
English Language review here – https://www.historynet.com/book-review-soviet-casualties-and-combat-losses-in-the-twentieth-centur-edited-by-col-gen-grigori-f-krivosheev-mh/?f
Posted by: Aslangeo | Aug 18 2023 21:28 utc | 271
Milites @ 265
I doubt they could conceal 10 times those losses today. The article is just one of many this SMO that is wish-casting, narrative shaping, or sometimes simply outright projection.
At the beginning of the SMO the AFU was killing a lot of Russians and gleefully posting images and vids all over social media, if the Russian corpses were there now it’s a damn sure bet there would be plenty of gloating postings all over TG and the msm.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 18 2023 21:45 utc | 272
@William Gruff(#256): I’m tired of changing my domain name server settings! At this time the DNS settings are not under my control. I will not use a VPN at all. Maybe it gives my traffic to the next possible bad guy too. Free speech rulez! Eine Zensur findet nicht statt! Danke, Lügenursel!
Posted by: Wolle | Aug 18 2023 21:54 utc | 273
Military summary:
AFU ran out of steam in Robotyne, their armor advance seems to run out of steam on the eastern fields, and they are now simply trying to take Robotyne itself with groups of infantry. Dima says AFU cannot admit that they lost the battle of Robotyne.
RU is using a lot of old D-30 howitzers (which were very cheap and made by the thousands) on this front. They require towing to maneuver and change positions, but the saving grace is they don’t need to change firing focus that much since AFU paths of advance is predictable. AFU is using more or less same roads over and over again on the fields east of Robotyne.
In Urozhaine/Staramayorske, the game is that AFU must gather a critical mass on that small triangle area in order to continue that main road to the south. Therefor RU bombards and flattens those villages every day, leaving no chance of hiding and disrupting the build-up. Of course, AFU may also launch smaller auxiliary attacks on the flanks, but they are not the main attack and they have been using lot of drones here.
RU is putting huge effort on Krasnogorovka (north of Maryinka) with drones and artillery. But Krasnogorovka, like Avdeevka, is a fortress built since 2014 and will be no walk in the park either. Krasnogorovka and Maryinka are very important, perhaps in reality more important than Kupyansk, in order to compromise AFU left flank.
Dima speculates Azov deployment to Serebryansky forest is probably more of an effort to raise rock-bottom morale in that sector (those forces of AFU have been there since last Autumn) than any real attempt of attacking, but who knows. They are attempting attacks on Dubrovka, at least bombarding it.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 18 2023 21:54 utc | 274
I noticed something along the same lines. There are a few videos of textbook land warfare execution.
IMHO, the Russkies are now competing with each other on how best to conduct warfare and showing results.
In the meantime, The Pentagon is waiting for its nails to dry while NATO would like to extract more government funds and obsolete weapons.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 21:20 utc | 269
Yes, I agree. Whilst the west is winning the narrative war with its overwhelming media control, it is losing the frontline video war. This is to the extent that they sometimes have to use previous russian videos, claiming the video shows a ukraine attack on a russian position or peice of equipment.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Aug 18 2023 21:54 utc | 275
migueljose @ 170
And [Russia has] 250,000 people in reserve with cutting-edge hardware.
Troop sizes are a about as top a military secret as you can get. If Lukashenko says 250,000 then it’s either a lot less or a lot more. I’d say a lot more.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 18 2023 22:03 utc | 276
Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 18 2023 13:48 utc | 194
Russia must crush NATO to achieve security on it’s western border….
———————————————————————-
Pretty tall order since the SMO is restricted within the Ukie boundaries.
Embarrassing the living daylights out of NATO for all the world to see is a different topic. The Russkies are making a great show of it.
‘Götterdämmerung in the East’ by Big Serge, who I think th world of, is instructive as is everything else he has written. What it means to me that there is plenty of slaughter ahead.
Let me end it with this great post.
—————————————
Saw this quote on voxday, brilliant:
If the Ukrainians had any sense of self-preservation at all, its elite 82nd Air Assault Brigade would be rounding up the NATO puppets in Kiev and putting them on trial for treason and war crimes instead of dutifully obliterating itself on three lines of sophisticated Russian defenses.
Posted by: Madmarc | Aug 18 2023 16:17 utc | 219
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 22:04 utc | 277
@ Norwegian | Aug 18 2023 18:49 utc | 243
Yep, and that good Russian general also said that US might be plotting a follow on pandemic for ‘Global Control’ purposes. So now even the Russians are saying that covid2 is on the way.
Posted by: gT | Aug 18 2023 22:12 utc | 278
the ‘west’ has a big problem, probably studied and experimented in the ikrainian biolabs
the russians are well aware of this and tried to introduce critical information to the un and we the public have had no information from the donated information
what and why
perhaps this is part of that information
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-020-00771-8..
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.04.535604v1.full
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.04.535604v1.full
https://www.independentsentinel.com/pfizer-mrna-spike-protein-is-part-of-your-cell-within-hours-not-what-the-cdc-proclaimed/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=11&v=MjxlvduyJyc&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independentsentinel.com%2F&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY&feature=emb_logo
https://www.mdpi.com/1467-3045/44/3/73/htm
http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v17n24.shtml
this will end the war.. eventually
“the time of tears will come”
Posted by: T S | Aug 18 2023 22:24 utc | 279
@ 265
I think the narrative at the time was that Afghanistan was the Soviet Union’s Vietnam, which encouraged US propaganda to make the numbers of Soviet KIA/WIA match those of the US in Vietnam.
———
@ Z 281
I think you grossly overrate NATO’s MIC capacity. I expect that serial production of the newest RF tanks & APC’s wasn’t fully ready before the SMO. Procuring existing models was easier & more economical.
Particularly when the RF has had to scale up production of other armaments, it’s a matter of priorities & utility.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Aug 18 2023 22:44 utc | 280
Re: “Ukraine will become a land locked state, Poland will take the western part with US help and RU will cut it off from the south.
Tbh, I believe that is what will happen, also judging by reports from Poland and their mercenary saying Polish government will bankrupt and collapse Ukraine and take their land.”
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 18 2023 21:07 utc | 268
Been examining Poland of late and believe there’s a lot of double dealing going on. A bit like Pakistan.
From Polands view, it’s obvious NATO isn’t going to do crap, Germany isn’t about to “answer the call”, nor would Turkey.
Poland has watched 450k citizens being dropped in 15 months, they currently have no armaments, no ammunition and an IMF, World Bank “loans” to infinity, as well as the “lend lease” and every other debt entrapped and laden Ukraine… it’s already “bankrupt”.
There’s no doubt Russias offer is enticing…” militarily stay out of this, including no air bases being used for F16s, huff & puff, but stay out of it, then when the US gets bored or beaten and abandons the project and we carve up Ukraine, you can have Lvov.”…
If in the end, you get territory, why go in and waste blood & money?… and there’s an election coming as well. Poland May hate Russia to the core, but they’re not terribly keen on “EU values” either. All in all, they seem to be playing the Pakistani card that Pakistan did with Afghanistan for years. Same doublespeak now that it is crystal clear that NATO Article 5, would mean Poland, Lithuania & Lativa, with some Moldovans, while Britain cheerleads across the pond and US “eventually” sends “stuff”….
Yeah, doubt Poland (anymore… 9 months ago … yeah) is rip roaring excited to go to war against Russia at this current juncture. I could be wrong.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 18 2023 22:50 utc | 281
Posted by: T S | Aug 18 2023 22:24 utc | 283
US Japan occupation government secretly pardoned the leadership of Japanese notorious Unit 731, which had conducted cruel biological experiments on live Chinese citizens, in exchange of all Japanese records data.
US built on these date to further American research on bioweapons.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/17/japan-unit-731-imperial-army-second-world-war
Unit 731: Japan discloses details of notorious chemical warfare division
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Aug 18 2023 22:52 utc | 282
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 21:21 utc | 271
There’s a difference between the State having accurate figures and the state being open about them though.
The Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers, or CSM, was helped by Gorbachev’s policy of glasnost, which encouraged the discussion of sensitive topics, especially the thousands killed in barracks or whilst training. Allowing mothers to share their grief and stories about losing sons in Afghanistan also helped bolster the idea than a new approach was genuinely being taken and became a useful way to reduce the militaries influence in society and strengthen the withdrawal option that Gorbachev favoured himself.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 21:20 utc | 269
I’ve also noticed the opposite, more and more evidence of Ukrainian units demonstrating their rushed training schedules and lack of tactical awareness. Improving in warfare, especially being able to survive the first encounters, is a massive force multiplier.
The D-30 deployment could suggest:
1. that Ukrainian counter-battery capabilities are weak and that more and more 105mm tubes are replacing the lost/worn out/damaged 155mm platforms in the Ukrainian TO&E.
2. The exact opposite, using plentiful old howitzers would reduce attrition on the modern platforms, whilst providing a cheap, counter to Ukrainian CB missions
3. The big guns are being moved to other fronts, perhaps to support offensives on the Northern and Eastern Fronts using the RAG and AAG concepts of massed fires.
4. Western stories about Russian losses are true, this is included in the interests of impartial, balanced analysis.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 18 2023 23:05 utc | 283
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 22:04 utc | 278
Gorbachev wanted to pull out of Afghanistan from the moment he became President, but he knew that he would face intense opposition from the military and he needed to focus on domestic issues not get embroiled in a fight with the generals. His solution was simple, give the Generals what they asked for. They received the troops and new equipment and promptly made little to no headway, leaving the withdrawal option the only one realistically available. I wonder if it’s the same thing in Ukraine, with the High Command wanting to gut Zelensky but worried about the Azov Pretorian guard and accusations of treachery. So they dutifully obey orders to continue the doomed offensive, until gutting Zelensky is the only realistic option available, and the neo-Nazi militias are just so much mulch, fertilising the soil.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 18 2023 23:18 utc | 284
@ Milites 288
2 & 3 are more likely given that Russia has plenty of artillery but also could want to avoid burning it’s modern guns & expensive guns, at too high a rate.
Having older artillery as part of fixed defensive line, gives a greater variety of firepower and uses up alternative stocks of ammo reducing pressure on shell consumption.
Western stories of Russian losses have been so ridiculously propagandistic from the start of the SMO. One can at this point, dismiss them without scrutiny.
After all why give the courtesy of even cursory credence to pathological & *proven* liars? They don’t deserve it.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Aug 19 2023 0:31 utc | 285
@Milites | Aug 18 2023 23:18
I can’t speak to what Gorbachev’s strategy was with Afghanistan. But many forget that the Soviet army was requested by the PDP/Taraki government. Almost immediately after the PDP coalition came to power, the CIA, assisted by the Saudi and Pakistani military, launched a large scale intervention into Afghanistan on the side of the ousted feudal lords, reactionary tribal chieftains, mullahs, and opium traffickers. Afghanistan made significant reforms under the Marxist government: women didn’t have to cover their faces and were allowed into universities. A top official within the Taraki government was Hafizulla Amin, believed by many to have been recruited by the CIA during the several years he spent in the US as a student. In September 1979, Amin seized state power in an armed coup. He executed Taraki, halted reforms, and murdered, jailed, or exiled thousands of Taraki supporters as he moved toward establishing a fundamentalist Islamic state. This all this happened before the Soviet military intervention. Zbigniew Brzezinski publicly admitted, months before Soviet troops entered the country, that the Carter administration was providing huge sums to Muslim extremists to subvert the reformist government. Part of that effort involved brutal attacks by the CIA-backed mujahedeen against schools and teachers in rural areas. Sound familiar?
In late 1979, the seriously besieged PDP government asked Moscow to send a contingent of troops to help ward off the mujahedeen (Islamic guerrilla fighters) and foreign mercenaries, all recruited, financed, and well-armed by the Bob Gates/CIA, through the ISI. The Soviets already had been sending aid for projects in mining, education, agriculture, and public health. Deploying troops represented a commitment of a more serious and politically dangerous sort. It took repeated requests from Kabul before Moscow agreed to intervene militarily.
The Soviet intervention was a golden opportunity for the CIA to transform the tribal resistance into a holy war, an Islamic jihad to expel the godless communists from Afghanistan. Over the years the United States and Saudi Arabia expended about $40 billion on the war in Afghanistan. The CIA and its allies recruited, supplied, and trained almost 100,000 radical mujahedeen from forty Muslim countries including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria, and Afghanistan itself.
As recently as 1999, the US government was paying the entire annual salary of every single Taliban government official (SF Chronicle, 10/2/2001). Not until October 2001, when GW Bush had to rally public opinion behind his bombing campaign in Afghanistan did he denounce the Taliban’s oppression of women. Laura Bush, emerged overnight as a full-blown feminist to deliver a public address detailing some of the abuses committed against Afghan women.
Neither the Clinton nor Bush administrations ever placed Afghanistan on the official State Department list of states charged with sponsoring terrorism, despite the acknowledged presence of Osama bin Laden as a guest of the Taliban government. Such a ‘rogue state’ designation would have made it impossible for Chevron or Kellog Brown & Root to enter an agreement with Kabul for a pipeline to the Central Asian oil and gas fields.
If Washington had left the Marxist Taraki government alone back in 1979, there would have been no army of mujahedeen, no Soviet intervention, no war that destroyed Afghanistan, no Osama bin Laden, and no September 11 tragedy. It was the ‘intelligence’ community that played a major role in Afghanistan. It was the ‘intelligence’ community and Gates that originally overstated the ‘threat’ of the Soviets. The motive, apart from rabid anti-communism, for all their operations is money. In the case of Afghanistan money meant the huge reserves of oil and gas in the CCCP, the pipelines to deliver, and the opium trade.
The gameplan that the US uses to get what it wants, essentially is the same for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The CIA has been supporting fascists (my definition of fascist is simple: anyone who wages terror against workers) ever since the CCCP defeated the nazis. Their desire to break up the CCCP stems from their rabid anti-communism. Their rabid anti-communism comes from their (and their clients’) desire for money and power.
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 19 2023 0:48 utc | 286
Some videos for today.
More Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/klesch-apti-alaud:a
Russian Ka-52 assault helicopter destroys another US-supplied Bradley infantry fighting vehicle:
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-08-18_13-25-35:4
Russian gunner took out eight enemy troops on the Zaporozhye front (18+ footage):
https://odysee.com/@Overthrown:6/video_2023-08-18_13-08-28:c
Russian Grad launcher crew performs combat mission:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/grad_1708:3
Russian self-propelled howitzer fires on enemy position near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/7c79fd7295b8283150632ae587c48710/
Russian Su-25s conduct airstrike:
https://rutube.ru/video/77170cf53bb83013512ce66439645327/
Posted by: Nate | Aug 19 2023 1:00 utc | 287
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 19 2023 0:48 utc | 291
Over the years the United States and Saudi Arabia expended about $40 billion on the war in Afghanistan.
#######
I read a respectable retrospective analysis, adusted to 2022 USD, that in its 20 years in Afghanistan, the US spent $2.4 TRILLION towards their purposes. $40 billion is WAAAAAY WRONG. Lol.
What’s more, this number was publically reiterated by Senator Lindsay Graham in 2022 when he was trumpeting how they were gunna extinguish Russia one day. A close paraphrase, IIRC :
“Look, we spent 1 Trillion on Vietnam; 2.4 Trillion on Afghanistan; and we have earmarked $6 Trillion to defeat Russia over the next 10 years. To my mind, that’s good value for money”. I think his source was the infamous Rand Plan.
This statement was not long before his visit to AFU troops where he said “We’re gunna help you kill a lot of Russians”.
So, in a nutshell folks, the US has a lot more (theoretical) funding to spend on its long term mission to bring down Russia. Hence, expect at least another 10 years of military mischief from the US Congress and the MIC against Russia. Ukraine is but ACT I.
Posted by: SCCC | Aug 19 2023 1:22 utc | 288
SCCC@293
I believe the $40b figure is for expenditures prior to the US invasion.
Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 19 2023 1:49 utc | 289
@SCCC – Pessimist is correct, the $40B was spent arming and organizing the mujahedeen. Also, Lindsay Graham may have a rude awakening, regarding 10 years of funding his Russophobic dreams. Dedollarization has only started. It will get worse – the free ride will come to an end. All our wars, since Vietnam, haven’t been financed by taxpayers but funded by other countries by recycling their dollars to purchase US Treasury bonds. These bonds are issued to FINANCE the DOMESTIC budget deficit. Thus, the balance-of-payments deficit finances the domestic budget deficit. By financing the Treasury’s bonds, whose rising volume reflects the size of the deficit each year, foreign central banks finance the military spending, which is the major factor in this deficit. Essentially, other countries trade surpluses are used to wage military aggression. But this free ride/arrangement is changing and I’d wager Lindsay’s Russophobic dreams will turn out to be a nightmare – unfortunately, for us US workers, too.
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 19 2023 2:48 utc | 290
Of course, the whole deficit/debt debate doesn’t really belong here because Lindsay Graham, whose hatred of Russians is only exceeded by his hatred of organized workers, will destroy workers either with economic war or by starting WWIII!
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 19 2023 2:56 utc | 291
Russian deep dive of the materials found at the bio labs uncovered has led to Gen Kirillov to confirm that Covid was an artificial biological crisis created by the US Government.
https://telegra.ph/Briefing-by-Chief-of-Nuclear-Chemical-and-Biological-Protection-Troops-General-Lieutenant-Igor-Kirillov-on-US-military-and-biolo-07-14
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 19 2023 3:48 utc | 292
Posted by: knighthawk | Aug 18 2023 12:19 utc | 168
Legend, thanks mate.
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 19 2023 3:50 utc | 293
So, Mr Putin has visited the military headquarters in Rostov. Perhaps something is up.
Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 19 2023 4:10 utc | 294
zeke2u
No need to argue with me.
1. You clearly stated “Over the years the United States and Saudi Arabia expended about $40 billion on the war in Afghanistan”, and did not specify “arming and organizing the mujahedeen”. I simply pointed out — in relativity — how the USA 2023 values destroying Russia compared with Vietnam and Afghanistan.
2. If Lindsay Graham and the Outlaw US Empire are our common enemies, no need to preach to me about US voodoo monetary policy. And Graham is only one tiny stereotypical piece of the deep state. With the US debt ceiling currently at 30-36 Trillion, 6 trillion more over 10 years for the MIC is actually not much, and the US taxpayer will not even notice. It is, as you say, just smoke and mirrors.
3. My point, within the thread context of the SMO (which YOU diverted into money talk) was that the reported $600 billion thus far spent on Ukraine in 18 months is only 10% of their piggy bank for RF sabotage. In other words, much more spending and meddling to come.
Posted by: SCCC | Aug 19 2023 4:14 utc | 295
Posted by: Chas | Aug 18 2023 19:36 utc | 252
(Phil Spector/Da do ron ron origin)
Sorry, minor correction required. Da do ron ron was a Neil Sedaka invention. It’s a recurŕing theme in several of his hit songs.
I’d also quibble with Spector claiming title to the Wall Of Sound concept. IMHO the Everly Brothers hit Temptation was just as Wall Of Sound-ish as any Spector hit and predated Spector’s chart success by several years.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 19 2023 4:27 utc | 296
@ 293
Ya’see, the trouble with what you posted is that Lindsay Graham is a bloviating gasbag of stale neo-con flatlunce. Oh and if that isn’t clear a f**king thieving liar.
The US polity is comprehensively structurally bankrupt, kept afloat by the modern equivalent of currency debasement and riddled top-to-bottom with corruption.
So that notional 10 trillion would dissipate with *astonishing* alacrity far in excess of its effect. Simply because filtering money you don’t have through multiple layers of parasites doesn’t yield productive outcomes…
Posted by: Urban Fox | Aug 19 2023 4:41 utc | 297
“Look, we spent 1 Trillion on Vietnam; 2.4 Trillion on Afghanistan; and we have earmarked $6 Trillion to defeat Russia over the next 10 years. To my mind, that’s good value for money”. I think his source was the infamous Rand Plan.
Posted by: SCCC | Aug 19 2023 1:22 utc | 293
Senator Graham is missing the most important point:
His army blew 1 trillion on Vietnam and still got their ass spanked before running back home under Mama’s skirt, crying.
They blew 2.4 trillion on Vietnam and still got their ass spanked before running back home under Mama’s skirt, crying.
They can waste however much money they don’t need for education and healthcare and building infrastructure in America on Ukraine, and they will get spanked by Russia.
Even if they didn’t, they won’t have the 100 Trillion they would need to beat China after they are done with Russia. Or, more precisely, after Russia is done with AmericaNATO.
Posted by: Marvin | Aug 19 2023 6:11 utc | 298
Below is a Xinhuanet posting of note
MOSCOW, Aug. 19 (Xinhua) — Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Saturday that the West is not interested in negotiating with Moscow on the issue of Ukraine.
The West held multilateral meetings on Ukraine in Jeddah and Copenhagen without inviting Russia, hoping to persuade developing countries to back the Ukrainian president’s peace plan, said Lavrov in an interview with the International Affairs magazine, adding that Moscow’s vital interests were ignored.
Russia had always been ready for substantive dialogue and had tried for years to make Kiev implement the Minsk agreements, which were aimed at resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine, he said.
Russia had responded to Ukraine’s proposal to start negotiations from the first days of the Special Military Operation, but the talks were halted by Ukraine under Western pressure in 2022, he said.
Later that year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky banned any negotiations with the Russian leadership by decree.
The top Russian diplomat said the West sponsors constantly pushed Ukraine to escalate the situation, and that there was no prospect for negotiations between Russia and the West on Ukraine at the moment.
Russia considered the Western calls for negotiations as a tactical trick to buy time and give a respite to the exhausted Ukrainian troops, said Lavrov.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 19 2023 6:32 utc | 299
Weeb Union has a video, based on a Polish colonels prediction of events.
It goes basically as follows.
Wagner, rebuilt, with a lot of drones and new volunteer soldiers, would launch an excursion in Chernigov. This would draw a lot of AFU from other directions. The purpose is not to necessarily make any advance here, just draw AFU to this skirmish as they prioritize Kiev defense.
After that, RU will launch an offensive between Sumy and Kharkov, toward Poltava.
An offensive from the south will advance either past Zaporozhye or take it, and meat up with the northern advance at Poltava, then the offensive will split into two, north / north-west from Poltava and east, taking the bulk of AFU from behind.
Now this seems like another “big arrow” and deep penetration offensive, but I suppose the logic is valid. First, with a threat to Kiev, draw many AFU as far as away as possible, then with AFU mobile units tied in the south, launch another offensive which they can’t respond to. While AFU is pinned in their own counter-offensive quagmire.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 19 2023 7:11 utc | 300