The speculation seems to be that Russia would agree a peace deal if one were offered that left it with Crimea and Donbass. Perhaps, but the reputational cost to Putin would be severe. It leaves him without the security framework he considers a sine qua non, nothing more than a glorified Minsk II. Another factor must be that the US /NATO is unable to mount any sort of direct operation against China while engaged with Russia in Ukraine. The longer the Ukraine SMO drags on, the more time China has to prepare for war and derail US efforts to create instability in the Far East. There’s little benefit for Russia in a faster offensive, compared to the added risk of leaving China to face a full Eastward pivot without the expensive Ukrainian distraction. If that analysis is right, then Western pressure for a Ukrainian settlement before the US election will escalate significantly.

Posted by: TPaine | Aug 18 2023 1:28 utc | 103

Posted by: dh | Aug 18 2023 1:10 utc | 100

.. I’m sorry but I don’t understand what you are saying. Perhaps if you talk about the specifics of a ceasefire I could give you a better answer. To me it looks like a MMA fight with no referee. ..

You have “spoken” about a ceasefire on your latest post – forgotten?
If “you” do not understand me, then I’m the super-prof below of your’s educational + univerity gained skills.
What you meen by “MMA” ? Having a black-hole here of mine? Thanks for reply .. dear guy.

Posted by: spare_truth | Aug 18 2023 1:34 utc | 105

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 18 2023 0:37 utc | 93
I just realized I misread your statement and extrapolated a widespread Russophobia in the West versus a few States in Eastern Europe.
Well, in the immortal words of Gilda Radner:
“Never mind!”

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 18 2023 1:45 utc | 107

There was an article on Slavangrad Telegram calling for Russia to crush its enemies and instill fear worldwide so that it could dominate like the superpower it is. I asked if that was not exactly what the USA does and is that really the example Russia wants to emulate. That saw me banned from posting, seems the Russians are every bit as good at cancel culture and banning debate as the West is. Just food for thought…

Posted by: Organic | Aug 18 2023 1:56 utc | 109

Interesting; for the first time in quite a while I cannot access southfront. I wonder if that recent article regarding the evacuation of children rubbed someone the wrong way?
Interesting effing times.
Thanks for all the videos, Nate and thanks for keeping the bar open, b.

Posted by: robjira | Aug 18 2023 2:42 utc | 111

What can NATO possibly do once its Ukraine proxy’s defeated?
Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 18 2023 0:37 utc | 93
————————————————–
Follow the EU model. Have meetings over sumptuous dinners. Appoint committees to make recommendations. Chew the fat, ponder the options, protect the status quo until something breaks, e.g. Hungary or Slovenia breaking off, Turkey just making the usual nuisance of itself.
It will take a while before they discover that all is useless, although careful study of the current defense agreements would point that out in a jiffy. The self deception will take a long time to grind itself down. Any aggressive Russian behavior will not help.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 3:03 utc | 113

Ukraine is now bombing Moscow with impunity on an almost daily basis. I’m glad Russians seem so content with their new reality. They brought this all on themselves, and it’s just going to get worse.

Posted by: Sourvodka | Aug 18 2023 3:17 utc | 115

Aside from a handful of released commanders and grunts from Turkey, along survivors who weren’t caught in the siege last year.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Aug 18 2023 3:30 utc | 116
####
Ah, I suspect you’re neglecting ALL the Azov POWs Russia accumulated since DPR and Mauriupol/Azovstal days and which have gradually (quietly) been swapped for RF POWs since then. 2500 walked out of Azovstal. Where are they now??? If I was a widow or raped girl of the 2014 – 2022 Azov persecutions I would be very pissed off they’re now back fighting again after the Pushilin *promised* that every Azov would be imprisoned and prosecuted to the N-th degree.

Posted by: SCCC | Aug 18 2023 3:46 utc | 117

Once Crimea is cut off, and Putin has to ship everything in, while getting military vessel after military vessel sunk, the conditions would be ripe for peace talks

Posted by: Logical Conclusion | Aug 18 2023 3:57 utc | 119

Over the years one collects a lot of free books from various sources. Some (most?!) will be given away again unread, but there are a few of the “maybe I’ll get around to it one day” type. I’ve decided to use these for bathroom books. The latest of these is “The Agency: The Rise and Decline of the CIA” by John Ranelagh. Here’s a tidbit from that book.
“The Office of Policy Coordination and the CIA’s Office of Special Operations entered battle in this field. Agents were briefed and given false papers and sent on missions throughout the Eastern bloc, including into the USSR itself, where for several years after the war a Ukrainian resistance movement continued to fight the Red Army. This was a major and fascinating undertaking. The Ukraine was an acknowledged part of the USSR, so the operations were tantamount to war. It demonstrated the determination with which the United States entered the cold war. It also demonstrated a cold ruthlessness: the Ukrainian resistance had no hope of winning unless America was prepared to go to war on its behalf. Since America was not prepared to go to war, America was in effect encouraging Ukrainians to go to their deaths.”
Now, instead of ex-Nazis, America is getting ordinary citizens to fight for them. Isn’t progress wonderful?

Posted by: Gerry L Forbes | Aug 18 2023 4:01 utc | 121

Posted by: Logical Conclusion | Aug 18 2023 3:57 utc | 119
############
Who is going to sink the Russian fleet?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 18 2023 4:15 utc | 123

Cynic | Aug 18 2023 2:35 utc | 110
Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 3:03 utc | 113–
Thanks for your replies. Given the power of Russia’s Northern Fleet and its formidable icebreaker fleet, and aviation from Murmansk, I doubt Russia will be challenged in the Arctic.
However, I didn’t consider NATO sitting on its hands and doing nothing. Not with the Empire goading it toadies to turn their angst to China. I also see I failed to address the question of what does the Outlaw US Empire do when Ukraine ceases? Well, as I wrote at the end, I didn’t cover everything.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 18 2023 4:31 utc | 125

@115 sourvodka
You don’t know what worse is, but Russians do. Their biggest day is celebrating over enemies that killed 25 million of them while being savagely oppressed by murderous tyrants.
Im assuming an intention by the US to destroy Russia’s nukes and space program. It can’t rule the world if it’s vulnerable to any armed group, and only the nukes and space program can threaten its continental stronghold.
The EU will soon collapse, it’ll be gone. Japan and China can fight and destroy their capabilities, Pakistan can nuke India, etc…
Its just pitting groups over the world against each other, right now it’s eu and russia cage fighting.
Occasional drone strikes? Russia is getting off easy when you consider the stakes.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 18 2023 5:02 utc | 127

Looks like Southfront is down again, southern hemisphere. 5 Eyes doesn’t like their Narrative being upended.
Can’t believe Russia banned Southfront in the early days of the Syrian War, although there was a lot of bitching about Russia not rolling in the Donbass helping enforce the Minsk agreements.
Disappeared again for the while when Houthis were posting Saudi Abrams up in flames.
All the guys speaking out against the Narrative are being cancelled. Russia needs to counter the Narrative emphatically by destroying USnATO’s proxy force completely.
Here’s hoping Southfront shows up again, as does Lira and all the others.
Great work by these guys.

Posted by: Suresh | Aug 18 2023 6:05 utc | 129

128#
That sounds accurate, except he isn’t wringing his hands.
He’s perpetual onanist – he can change hands without missing a beat.
His only exercise is emptying out all the defiled tissue papers at the end of his jerk-days into the trash can.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Aug 18 2023 7:39 utc | 131

#110
I laughed loud and hard at this post.
Dear 101,
You have failed to pass your basic geography exam.
In fact I’m going to call you ‘Geography 101’ from now on. Well, actually, only when you pass the darn thing.
Here’s a hint for you.
Open up a map of Scandinavia.
Now, check out the extensive coastline that Finland has in the Arctic Sea, from which to launch their piracy attacks.
Can you see what I see?

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Aug 18 2023 7:50 utc | 133

@scepticalSOB | Aug 18 2023 7:50 utc | 133

Now, check out the extensive coastline that Finland has in the Arctic Sea, from which to launch their piracy attacks.
Can you see what I see?

LOL!! So we know this guy is geographically challenged, i.e. US American.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 18 2023 7:57 utc | 135

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/77715

🛸 🇷🇺 ZALA Aero affiliate Aeroscan has developed the next gen of the highly successful Lancet, hoping that the newest variant becomes absolutely unstoppable. The Izdeliye-53(Product-53) also known as Lancet-3 was unveiled during the Army-2023 International Military Technical Forum.
The new design is distinctively different from previous versions, the drone will be tube launched and the wings will release into 4×45 degree angles. The initial version will be capable of carrying a 5kg payload and be capable of network-centric warfare. The kamikaze drone will reportedly be capable of working in swarms that work within a single neural network. Because of this, the Lancet-3 will be able to work independently and will not be able to be suppressed using EW because its main circuit on board is capable of completing missions regardless of communication with ground forces.

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/77706

🇮🇷🇸🇾General Soleimani in Syria
The most powerful military Commander in the Middle East wouldn’t just sit behind his desk. He was constantly on the frontline.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 18 2023 8:23 utc | 137

https://karlof1.substack.com/p/negotiations-ukraine-endgame-what/comments
There is some further discussion on Karl’s post here – and comments which are on topic. In case anyone is interested.

Posted by: marcjf | Aug 18 2023 8:33 utc | 139

The speculation seems to be that Russia would agree a peace deal if one were offered that left it with Crimea and Donbass. Perhaps, but the reputational cost to Putin would be severe.
Posted by: TPaine | Aug 18 2023 1:28 utc | 103
That ship has sailed.
Any such agreement would be flat out unconstitutional.
Zaporoshe und Kherson are part of the Russian Federation acoording to the Russian Constitution.
They will not be handed back.
The only parts that Russia might be prepared to hand back are those in Kharkov. Which might explain why the Russians are retaking territory in Kharkov.
Those areas might be returned to Ukraine provided that Ukraine removes its army from the parts of Lugansk, Donetsk, Kerson and Zaporoshe that it currently occupies.

Posted by: Martina | Aug 18 2023 8:36 utc | 141

Military summary:
AFU lacks “critical mass” to clear southern part of Robotyne. They keep feeding small piece meal infantry groups to attack the southern part but are unable. They are attempting to gather more mass.
Seems the combat in eastern fields of Robotyne have turned more stationary as RU managed to destroy lot of Stryker vehicles. “Focus change” of AFU turned south-east toward Verbove, and a Leopard tank has been seen trying to shoot at RU positions with indirect fire across the fields and forest lines. No advance SE.
The AFU attempt to attack east on the fields of Staramayorsk and Urozhaine ended up with the armored group dismantled (maybe 5 AFV).
RU small advance north of Avdeevka, toward Keramik.
Kleschevka stationary and positional bombardments.
AFU deployed the re-instated AFU brigade to Serebryansk forestry, which may indicate AFU attempts to attack here.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 18 2023 9:16 utc | 143

That video promotion the Ukrainians did before the offensive, you know the one where the soldiers put there finger to their lips for shush.
Some Russian has edit that now surely.
60,000 dead Shush, never got to the first line of defence Shush, never recaptured bakhmut shush, kupyansk under threat shush.
Somebody really creative could have a field day with that video now.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Aug 18 2023 9:18 utc | 145

“AFU deployed the re-instated Azov-brigade to Serebryansk forestry, which may indicate AFU attempts to attack here.”
Well they weren’t going to be deployed in the meat grinders in the East or South. That’s just for the serfs, those with the wrong type of genes and way of thinking.
Surprised they have been deployed at all. Thought they would stay at the back in Western Ukraine with the hookers in the night clubs.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Aug 18 2023 9:27 utc | 147

“Russia has been invaded through Ukraine 3 times, hence the reason Ukraine’s NATO petition was the final straw”
Charles XII of Sweden invaded through Ukraine in 1709. The excellent commander was stopped by Peter the Great at the battle of Poltava in 1709.
Luckily, for Russia, Charles had been wounded the previous day and did not command the Swedish troops at the pivotal battle..

Posted by: canuck | Aug 18 2023 9:43 utc | 149

U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal
The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won’t fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea in this year’s push.
The grim assessment is based on Russia’s brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.
Ukraine’s forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations. (…)
Analysts say the challenges Ukraine has faced are multifaceted, but nearly all agree that Russia surpassed expectations when it comes to its proficiency in defending occupied territory.
“The most deterministic factor of how this offensive has gone thus far is the quality of Russian defenses,” said Lee, noting Russia’s use of trenches, mines and aviation. “They had a lot of time and they prepared them very well … and made it very difficult for Ukraine to advance.” (…)
The new intelligence assessment aligns with a secret U.S. forecast from February indicating that shortfalls in equipment and force strength may mean that the counteroffensive will fall “well short” of Ukraine’s goal to sever the land bridge to Crimea by August. The assessment, detailed in a classified document leaked onto the social media app Discord, identified Melitopol or Mariupol as the objectives “to deny Russian overland access to Crimea.” (…)
“>https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/

Posted by: Apollyon | Aug 18 2023 10:26 utc | 151

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 18 2023 9:16 utc | 143
I think it’s important to note that there is nothing the Ukrainians can do now to significantly change the situation in their favour, on the battlefield. They are stuck in a spiral that slowly but steadily is increasing its rotational speed, any effort expended will only delay the inevitable, not offer an opportunity to escape. You could give the Ukrainians everything they wanted on their shopping list and it would not affect the actual outcome, it might delay the conflicts conclusion, certainly inflict more casualties on both sides, as Russia would escalate, but Ukraine would still loose.
Perspective is key in analysing a conflict’s outcome, but often people focus their attention on the ground, quite literally, instead of raising their gaze to the horizon. Russia won the SMO the moment she crossed the border, all that is playing out now is the consequences of both sides preparation for that conflict. Frustrations about Russia’s slow pace miss the point entirely, slow is smooth and smooth is fast, and this is the smoothest way Russia can achieve her strategic and political goals, given the limitations of her armed forces. All the highly inventive, and possibly plausible, strategies suggested by posters here have probably already been considered by the Russian High Command and rejected because they would not improve the current situation.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 18 2023 9:16 utc | 143
The deployment of the most ‘reliable’ unit Ukraine has might also suggest they think the sector is weak and the current forces would not be able to resist Russian pressure for much longer. If they did launch an offensive, what would it achieve, and would any gains mitigate the losses the unit would undoubtably suffer. See my first point about the Ukrainian inevitability of defeat.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 18 2023 10:36 utc | 153

AFU lacks “critical mass” to clear southern part of Robotyne. They keep feeding small piece meal infantry groups to attack the southern part but are unable. They are attempting to gather more mass.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 18 2023 9:16 utc | 143
Yep. Says so here I think: https://t.me/vicktop55/16506

Posted by: arthur brogard | Aug 18 2023 10:48 utc | 155

Posted by: Milites | Aug 18 2023 10:36 utc | 153 “Russia won the SMO the moment she crossed the border”
Now they are just figuring out the cost of winning?

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 10:55 utc | 157

Without the means to cut a hole in Russia’s drone surveillance, Ukrainian advances were always going to be cut to pieces. This has been obvious for a while now and must have been obvious to competent planner from the outset.
Ukraine has been provided with just enough gear to keep them in the fight and to harm Russia but not enough to decide the course of the conflict. This is in line with the RAND report and Barry Posen’s 1994 “A Defense Concept for Ukraine”.
The US political class is likewise provided with whatever cock and bull story will suspend their disbelief.
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/75766

🏴‍☠️🇺🇦 “Zelensky without our support would have suffered a crushing defeat in the war. And with our help, he won’t win. The situation is now stalemate.”
▪️Andy Harris, one of Ukraine’s main allies in the US Congress, acknowledged the failure of the UAF offensive and the need for peace talks, writes Politico
He is one of the co-chairs of the bipartisan coalition that advocates stronger ties with Kiev, and also sits on the House Appropriations Committee and can influence spending decisions
▪️Previously, he supported comprehensive assistance to Ukraine, but now he said that the States themselves have a shortage of funds after the pandemic and he will be against allocating new money to Kyiv without the supervision of the inspector general. The politician fears, among other things, waste and fraud, the publication clarifies
▪️According to WP, part of the US congressmen, due to the negative intelligence forecast about the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, are now against a new aid package to Kyiv

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 18 2023 11:08 utc | 159

@canuck | Aug 18 2023 9:43 utc | 149

Charles XII of Sweden invaded through Ukraine in 1709. The excellent commander was stopped by Peter the Great at the battle of Poltava in 1709.
Luckily, for Russia, Charles had been wounded the previous day and did not command the Swedish troops at the pivotal battle..

His proper name was Karl XII and he was more ‘permanently wounded’ in 1718 during an invasion of Norway.
His ‘wound’ was documented in 1917, photo:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_XII_of_Sweden#/media/File:CharlesXIIAutopsy1916.jpg

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 18 2023 11:19 utc | 161

Honest question: what will USA do if/when they place some very potentially threatening structures in Finland, and it triggers RU nuclear doctrine and they nuke those Nato structures?
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 18 2023 10:06 utc | 150
The plan for the Japan bases is a bigger problem. And why worry about Finland when they can’t move in Donbass and drones hit Moscow? Can they do anything about nato expansion? No, zero leverage. They were unable to put a single base anywhere in the world. No one closed even a single biolab, not even the neutrals. Now they’re simple spectators, like NK watching SK becoming filled with US nukes. When you have no army you are nothing, it’s very simple logic.

Posted by: rk | Aug 18 2023 11:30 utc | 163

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 18 2023 11:30 utc | 164
As a non Russian speaker I depend mostly on machine translations, both text and audio, which as guess become very messy when they get into technical details. But still an incredible advancement over what was available a decade or so ago.
There is some stuff I saw earlier that indicate the BOM (Bill of Materials) for these drones is much more sourced in Russia than in the past.

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 11:43 utc | 165

SNIPING AT MOSCOWS BUSINESS COMMUNITY
Drone operators, who are apprehensive about being stigmatised as “terrorists” in western media, due to the potential for unintended harm to civilians, conduct targeted operations against the business sector in Moscow during low-activity hours. The perpetrators operate from a base in the Moscow region.
The aforementioned attacks are purposefully intended as communication to the Russian business sector, serving as a component of the ongoing endeavours by Western entities to instigate dissatisfaction within Russia. They are sniping at the underbelly of Russia’s financial sector to weaken the sectors support for Putin.
It is a carefully planned, west-supported tactic.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Aug 18 2023 11:59 utc | 167

Here’s a good clip on twitter (X) with Lukashenko lecturing a Ukranian reporter on what he says is going to happen in Ukraine. The reporter appears both receptive and a bit surprised at what he predicts– seems staged but my guess is that it reflects some kind of change in Ukraine.
LUKASHENKO to Ukrainian reporter: “Your counteroffensive cost 45,000 people in dead and maimed. 45,000!.. Your losses are 1 to 8 at the frontline. And [Russia has] 250,000 people in reserve with cutting-edge hardware. You will be crushed… and the Poles rub their hands in glee. Pushed by the Americans, they will cut off the western regions… You have to take your head into your hands and act on the basis of reality. Act in the interests of this huge and beautiful territory.”
https://twitter.com/upholdreality/status/1692294476453065114

Posted by: migueljose | Aug 18 2023 12:20 utc | 169

Turkey squawking again about “grain deal”… has come up with 3 “plans” to discuss with Lavrov & Kubela. Talking smack about “military” alternative. Lithuania smack talking closing both borders (Russian & Belarus). Obvious US wants Lithuania to distract Russian forces.
I see nothing across the board lately of anything other than a wider war.
As for Turkey, Erdoğan has gone as far as he can straddling fences. Even if Erdoğan politically & economically wants “to do more” on the side of his U.S. masters, his own military will rise against him. He’s there by a thread now, but the military is not interested in this fight. They’d toss him first.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 18 2023 12:37 utc | 171

Posted by: spare_truth | Aug 17 2023 19:01 utc | 25
The they I’m referring to is Kiev. I don’t think they are empty puppets of USnato, I think they have their own agenda. Which coincides with the USnato agenda.
Kiev is completely dependent on NATO, right down to the point where they don’t even pay the salary of there own people in the Kiev power structure. They can’t change their mind unless their sponsors change their mind. A simple changing of the guard at the top can’t happen unless NATO sponsors it. What the Ukrainian population can do is they can rebel, which would be a rebellion against NATO. Rebellions of that sort are most commonly carried out by lower ranking military officers. The discontent has to be so high that some military unit rebels, and the rebellion then spreads spontaneously.

Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 18 2023 12:46 utc | 173

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 18 2023 3:03 utc | 113
If you mean that the military alliance will be broken but the bureaucracy will live on, I agree. Bureaucracies are hard to break.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Aug 18 2023 12:51 utc | 175

Slavyangrad reports on one reason morale among Russian servicemen is so high….
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/59328
An SMO participant from the Moscow region was given a new house to replace the one that burned down. This is what unity means.
In July, a large family from Naro-Fominsk had their house burned down, along with all their belongings and two cars. The serviceman’s wife and 5 children managed to get out of the house. The man was informed about the incident when he was on the front lines.
From the photos it is a very nice, new house….
The Russians take care of their own….
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 18 2023 13:00 utc | 177

Jörgen Hassler
Acco Hengst
I would assume that this was never that different with NATO since 1949.
It was basically a legal framework invented to justify the unjustifiable: the installment of WMDs and their potential use.
Without WMDs, very speculative I admit, no NATO.
(I haven´t watched “Oppenheimer” yet, but since it´s a public issue – that´s why they were pissed off. They felt he would threaten this system of justifying insanity by speaking out against it. Not exonerating him. But thats the whole point. Since every sane person knew it was a complete fuck-off.)

Posted by: AG | Aug 18 2023 13:04 utc | 179

This is about Ukraine in a roundabout way
I’m aware that this is embarrassing but sometimes I watch family Guy. Or at least I used to. Their latest episode is all Russian bashing, Meg apparently has moved there it’s all very gray and dingy, desperately poor, everyone’s drunk 24/7 and all they eat is beets interspersed with the bright colors of quahog where Chris and the principal are filming porn videos in the high school. I didn’t finish this episode but it perfectly encapsulates the West now, lies about their enemies and profound irredeemable degeneracy at home

Posted by: Whitney | Aug 18 2023 13:08 utc | 181

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 18 2023 10:55 utc | 157
Cost ultimately is only a deciding factor, in the decision making process, if it seriously impacts your ability to implement your present and future plans. The losing side in a conflict tends to adopt strategies they ultimately cannot ‘pay’ for. Russia can pay the cost for the SMO with her current strategy, as it does not seriously impact her present and future plans, with many claiming it has significantly boosted them. If this was not the case then the strategy would change to fit the new situation and the cost benefit calculation would be recalibrated.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 18 2023 13:17 utc | 183

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 18 2023 4:15 utc | 123
“Who is going to sink the Russian fleet?”
I don’t know but a ship sunk here, a ship sunk there, pretty soon you’re talking a fleet.

Posted by: Morongobill | Aug 18 2023 13:27 utc | 185

Lots of nasty trolls today. Sourvodka seems to have emmigrated from RT, where he was quite ridiculed, to this site.
I won’t comment on them but as to the released AZOV prisoners, well we all know who was the traitor in the end. For Russia the most important thing was to swap prisoners, which they did, and President Putin has lots of patience: sooner or later time will run out completely for AZOV.

Posted by: Anthony | Aug 18 2023 13:31 utc | 187

Jmaas@176….it’s going to be a long slow drip….like credit card debt, just pay the minimum to keep the house floating…..that can go one for a very very long time. There are no Repo Men to chain the doors.
The sponsor’s goal is to slow bleed the prey…. without risking their own skin….now they talk of Offensive 2024…and someone spoke of Russia’s own offensive2024….so might it be over by Offensive 2025, hmm ’26 I don’t like odd numbers.
And the thousands of ‘sexy’ limbless Ukrainians, yep, that’s how they are pushing it now, amputations being on a scale with WW1 in severity, and the dead, they just pile higher.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 18 2023 13:33 utc | 189

Posted by: Organic | Aug 18 2023 1:56 utc | 109
Slavyangrad’s Gleb Bazov writes from Canada.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Aug 18 2023 13:46 utc | 191

Big Serge thought on Gottedamerung…
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/gotterdammerung-in-the-east
One of the many idiosyncrasies of World War Two historiography is the relative disinterest shown in the closing phase of the war in the east. The most famous battles and events in the east – in particular Moscow, Stalingrad, and Kursk – are frontloaded in the timeline. It’s generally recognized that by the time of the defeat at Stalingrad, the Germans had “lost” the war, and so the battles and campaigns that occurred in the closing phase of the war (in particular 1944 and 1945) do not enjoy significant name recognition. In general, the perception is that the Soviets more or less marched inexorably to the west.
The inevitability of German defeat was certainly a reality, but the war was anything but over. In fact, 1944 and 1945 formed the bloodiest and most cataclysmic years of the war by far. The Wehrmacht was losing the war, to be sure, but it still maintained millions of men in the field, and it increasingly propped itself up by mobilizing volunteers from around Europe. In its dying death rage, as it vainly protested its own Götterdämmerung, the Wehrmacht would both kill and die in astonishing numbers.
By November 1943, after over 1500 days of war, total Wehrmacht permanent casualties (dead, disabled, or missing) amounted to roughly 3 million men. This makes for a loss rate of just under 2,000 men per day for over four years – a time period which includes the campaigns in Poland, France, the Balkans, North Africa, and the colossal eastern battles of Operation Barbarossa, Rzhev, Kharkov, Stalingrad, Kursk, and the Caucasus.
From November 1943 through the end of the war in May 1945 – a span of 527 days – Wehrmacht losses would be some 5 million men. Thus, over the final eighteen months of the war, German losses were an astonishing 9,400 per day, and although this closing phase made up only a quarter of the war in chronological terms, it accounted for nearly two-thirds of Germany’s total combat losses. And while the Wehrmacht was unequivocally being caved in all over Europe, it remained a colossal and tactically competent force capable of making its enemies pay dearly as it died. The Red Army would suffer 1.4 million killed and missing in 1944 (a year in which it won tremendous victories) and another 630,000 in just a few months of fighting in 1945.
I posted the above to remind everyone that this war is far from over….
Russia must crush NATO to achieve security on it’s western border….
China must help Russia in this to achieve security of it’s supply lines and to re-unify Taiwan
DPRK must help Russia in this to re-unify Korea
Iran must help Russia in this to support the Palestinians in their claim to Palestine
Poland, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia need be re-absorbed or tamed.
Bolton, Nuland, Kagan, Blinken etal, must be disgraced, vilified, dis-credited..
That will take time, treasure, and men will continue to die… in massive numbers…
Unless….
A miracle happens, which I do not see….
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 18 2023 13:48 utc | 193

@ Incompetenice | Aug 17 2023 19:52 utc | 34
Satire, I assume?

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Aug 18 2023 13:56 utc | 195

Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 18 2023 13:42 utc | 190
I don’t know if there’s some confusion here, I’m taking about the USnato apparatus, not the Ukrainian servants of the people.
The war, and above all the sanctions, have taken a toll, and a few of the EU countries are in official recession (most notably Germany). But overall GDP grew by 0,5 percent yoy in the second quarter of 2023, and employment by 1,2 percent.
So I wouldn’t expect to see that fancy billion dollar headquarter on the market any time soon.
(Unless they do something really stupid and it’s a fire sale.)

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Aug 18 2023 14:04 utc | 197

Here’s my Weekly Ukraine Update for those who haven’t the time or the inclination to follow events in detail. It may be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-1d1

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Aug 18 2023 14:19 utc | 199