Posted by: Stop the War | Aug 15 2023 16:09 utc | 1
You seem to be under the delusion that Washington wants peace. In time you will be cured of your malady.

Posted by: HybridIdentity | Aug 15 2023 16:30 utc | 4

If you haven’t the time or inclination to follow events in and around the Ukraine conflict in depth my Weekly Ukraine Update may be useful to you. There is no cost involved if you would like to subscribe. https://robcampbell.substack.com/publish/home

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Aug 15 2023 16:39 utc | 6

Posted by: Stop the War | Aug 15 2023 16:09 utc | 1
Personally I would be happy with this outcome, but I don’t think Russia would accept controls on its military, without similar restrictions on Nato. Also, where would the blue helmets come from, I don’t think a single nation who has taken a neutral stance would be acceptable to the Americans.
Unfortunately even as an opening proposition for peace this is a non starter

Posted by: Wazdaka | Aug 15 2023 16:42 utc | 8

Here’s what a possible peace treaty between Washington, Moscow and Kiev should be :
– Not joining any military alliance and making nuclear weapons until 2070.
– Ceding Crimea, Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye with recognization as Russians.
– Commissioning blue helmets in Ukraine until 2070.
– Dissolving Azov.
– Demilitarized zones in Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye.
– Reduction of Moscow’s military expenditure to 2% of Russia’s economy until 2070.
– Transfering CBR’s frozen assets to NBU.
– Lifting some sanctions against Moscow.
– Resignation of Vladimir Putin as president.
This might seem like a defeat for Moscow to all of you but let’s be honest, the alternative would be an endless war where the western bloc benefitting from Russian and Ukrainian youths uselessly dying.
Posted by: Stop the War | Aug 15 2023 16:09 utc | 1
############
Is it possible you have never heard of the Minsk Accords?
That you think “blue helmets” are going to do anything productive is a dead giveaway that you’re not operating with a sufficient amount of realism about the state of this situation, economically, politically, or militarily.
Right now, Russia is winning. Why would they accept your terms which are basically a complete surrender? Are you aware that the sanctions have made Russia stronger and in the context of the SMO, been largely irrelevant? The Russian people are not suffering for not being able to become obese eating McDonalds, and the Russian military and military-industrial complex is now the pre-eminent force globally in those areas.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 15 2023 16:55 utc | 10

Number 1 ..Jake the Snake, is that you? Such ridiculous hubris could only come from the Maerican camp or perhaps their deluded little Ukrainian groupies.
The Russians have no reason to compromise to such a degree, and many specific and clear reasons not to.
The war ends as the Ukrainian state collapses and Maerican power is shown to have finite and definite limits. How’s the debt service payments?
In other words the shit show will continue, until it doesn’t. Any peace will be on terms nowhere near so favorable for Maerica.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 15 2023 17:01 utc | 12

https://tass.com/politics/1660985
MELITOPOL, August 15. /TASS/. Russian aircraft is striking Ukrainian units that attack positions of Russian forces near the settlement of Urozhainoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Vladimir Rogov, chairman of the We Are Together with Russia civil society group, told TASS.
“About Urozhainoye: The level of assault by Russian frontline and ground attack aircraft is simply off the charts. There has never been such dense fire from the sky [raining down on Ukrainian servicemen] on the Zaporozhye battle front. Among other things, guided FAB-500s are being used, and precise hits on equipment are in the dozens,” Rogov said.

Posted by: OohCanada | Aug 15 2023 17:27 utc | 14

@HybridIdentity
Arch Bungle you are not blocked. I had to put you on temporary moderation for posting off-topic. The comments you had posted on the other thread were released today.

Posted by: b | Aug 15 2023 17:55 utc | 16

Posted by: b | Aug 15 2023 17:55 utc | 16
Thanks, b. My conspiracy wheel was spinning out of control there for a while.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 15 2023 17:59 utc | 18

Posted by: airstrip1 | Aug 15 2023 17:58 utc | 17
Here’s what a possible peace treaty between Washington, Moscow and Kiev should be :
– Zelinski, Badunov, Blinken, Sullivan, Nuland, Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Macron, Stoltenberg, Von der Leyen, Borrell should be tried as war criminals.
You left out Biden ! Of course he would have no trouble presenting a “diminished capacity” defense.

Posted by: jr | Aug 15 2023 18:04 utc | 20

“- Reduction of Moscow’s military expenditure to 2% of Russia’s economy until 2070.
– Transfering CBR’s frozen assets to NBU.
– Lifting some sanctions against Moscow.
– Resignation of Vladimir Putin as president.”
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Good one
Posted by: Comandanre | Aug 15 2023 16:53 utc | 9
These points are a bit silly. The asset transfer is already the status quo, in Russia’s mind. (They might recoup some it by seizing Western assets.)
Lifting some sanctions is also already baked into the cake, as the West will ultimately need this to happen for their own reasons.
As for Russia’s leadership and military budget, there are no conceivable circumstances where they would allow outsiders to determine those.
What would be more realistic?
– Demilitarization of Ukraine (both Ukrainian and outsider forces). That might entail no NATO.
– Some sort of monitoring program for bio/chem/nuke weapons.
– Russia keeps annexed oblasts and other Russian areas.
Probably everything east of the Dnipro.
– Russia gets Odessa, but with negotiated access for Ukraine (somewhat like the Kaliningrad situation).
– Ukraine keeps Zalinsky. 😉

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Aug 15 2023 18:17 utc | 22

@airstrip1 | Aug 15 2023 17:58 utc | 17

– Ukraine can keep Kiev to Polish Border.
– Ukraine military forces reduced to 75,000

“It’s far too late to turn, unless it’s to stone.” – PH, Scorched Earth
There is no one to talk to, much less trust.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 15 2023 18:29 utc | 24

Comment 1 by …War
A thought provoking well written proposal that some might question the fairness of, deserves a thoughtful counter proposal
1. Vaffanculo con cuello merda

Posted by: Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Aug 15 2023 18:33 utc | 26

Is the North Stream bombing a Ukraine topic? Or is it rest of world? Anyway, I find it puzzling that the german study of the mini nuke theory, peer reviewed by some heavy weight names from the science community, has not been discussed anywhere. Russia shows no interest whatsoever, alternative media are not reacting, no trend on twitter… anybody have any idea on why that is? It is quite a bomb shell and quite a serious matter.

Posted by: fk | Aug 15 2023 18:54 utc | 28

Posted by: Stop the War | Aug 15 2023 16:09 utc | 1
‘Recognization’? Ouch. Even b wouldn’t make that blunder.

Posted by: Patroklos | Aug 15 2023 18:59 utc | 30

Acc.to modified battle tactics on the ground, esp. the “technology and handling” of currently usable drones for reconn and/or attacks on either side, some “questionable facts” remaining :
– Up today, cheap modified UAF drones (based on Chinese commercial components, a la Alibaba) still have a remarkable success on destroying a lot of RF armoured devices + tanks, despite RF’s “Radio-Warfare” against that drone type.
– Even China has stopped now the export of those “commercial” drone components, it’s still existing a lot of them on UAF stocks to continue that “successful” operating towards the Russian trenches (where now the “1st.” defense line ..?).
– Some US-media has given an estimation how do they ‘fear’ what the drones technical design would be enhanced in future on both sides (US/RU).
https://archive.li/K839e
– As some MoAs already have mentioned, both sides have a good E-Warfare capabilities on the “Cheap Drones” – so it may stand 1:1.
USA wants to extend this “war” for several years – that’s for sure. But US/UK needs more time to develop its own “high tech invisible” drones ..
Let’s hope RF will handle that longterm US-Pentagon new drone planning ..
Once more:
the war will extend to “The Black Sea”, UAF naval drones have also to be “destroyed/disabled by EW” in advance before reaching its US-AWACs guided targets on RF coasts.

Posted by: spare_truth | Aug 15 2023 19:12 utc | 32

⚡️Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (15 August 2023)
▫️Last night, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have launched a concentrated strike with long-range air- and sea-based precision weapons against key enterprises of the Kiev regime’s military industry.
▫️The goal of the attack has been reached. All the assigned targets have been neutralised. Ukraine’s military-industrial complex has suffered significant damage.
▫️The AFU continued to attempt offensive actions in Zaporozhye, Kupyansk, Donetsk, Krasny Liman, and South Donetsk directions.
▫️In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian grouping of troops, supported by Army Aviation and artillery, repelled 3 attacks by assault units of the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU Strategic Reserve near Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).
▫️The enemy losses were up to 200 Ukrainian servicemen, 5 tanks, 6 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 armoured fighting vehicles, 2 motor vehicles, and 2 Msta-B howitzers.
▫️In Kupyansk direction, as a result of active and coordinated actions by units of the Zapad Group of Forces, Army Aviation and artillery, 6 attacks by assault groups of 14th, 32nd mechanised and 95th airborne assault brigades of the AFU have been repelled close to Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic), Olshana and Sinkovka (Kharkov region).
▫️The enemy losses were up to 100 Ukrainian servicemen, 2 armoured fighting vehicles, 3 pickup trucks, 1 U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system, Polish-manufactured Krab and Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, 2 Slovak-manufactured Zuzana-2 self-propelled howitzers on a wheeled chassis, 1 D-20 gun, and 1 U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar station.
▫️In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces, in close cooperation with aviation and artillery, have successfully repelled 11 attacks by AFU units close to Belogorovka, Razdolovka, Krasnogorovka and Nevelskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
▫️The enemy losses were up to 230 Ukrainian servicemen, 2 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 pickup trucks, 6 motor vehicles, U.S.-manufactured M109 Paladin and Akatsiya self-propelled artillery systems, as well as D-20 howitzer.
▫️In Krasny Liman direction, as a result of professional actions by units of the Tsentr Group of Forces, Army Aviation and artillery, 3 attacks by assault groups of the 68th Infantry Brigade and the 42nd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU have been repelled close to Novoyegorovka and Kuzmino (Lugansk People’s Republic) and Vesyoloye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
▫️The enemy losses were up to 80 Ukrainian servicemen, 3 armoured fighting vehicles, 2 pickup trucks, and 1 D-30 howitzer.
▫️In South Donetsk direction, aviation, artillery, heavy flamethrower systems, and units of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted 1 comprehensive fire attack on the enemy near Priyutnoye (Zaporozhye region).
▫️In addition, the actions of 1 sabotage and reconnaissance group of the 31st Mechanised Brigade of the AFU have been suppressed.
▫️The enemy losses were up to 200 Ukrainian servicemen, 4 armoured fighting vehicles, 3 motor vehicles, 1 Strela-10 surface-to-air missile system, 1 Msta-B howitzer, and 1 U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-37 counter-battery radar station.
▫️In Kherson direction, the enemy losses were up to 35 Ukrainian servicemen, 3 motor vehicles, U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system, 1 Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery system, as well as 1 D-20 howitzer.
▫️Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised manpower and military hardware in 172 areas.
▫️In addition, 1 command post of electronic warfare and air defence facilities of the AFU has been hit near Kramatorsk (Donetsk People’s Republic).
▫️1 ammunition depot of the 43rd Artillery Brigade of the AFU has been destroyed close to Omelnik (Zaporozhye region).
▫️Air defence facilities have intercepted 4 French-manufactured SCALP-EG long-range cruise missiles and 2 Uragan multiple-launch rocket system projectiles.
▫️In addition, 25 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been hit close to Lisichansk, Svatovo (Lugansk People’s Republic), Volnovakha, Gorlovka, Makeevka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Tokmak (Zaporozhye region).
📊In total, 458 airplanes, 246 helicopters, 5,761 unmanned aerial vehicles, 431 air defence missile systems, 11,315 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,144 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 5,893 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 12,246 special military motor vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Posted by: rumod report | Aug 15 2023 19:26 utc | 34

First, those air raid sirens across the whole of Ukraine were related to the systematic Russian bombardment of all still functional Ukrainian airports from which their air force’s SU-24 and SU-27 can operate.
Second, we are told that the Russians have just used Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to destroy the railway tunnels passing under the Carpathians which have been the main supply route of Western military hardware arriving from Poland and Romania.
By Russian calculations, they have now nullified the latest Western plans to prolong the war.
Three interesting sentences extracted from a longer article at:
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/08/14/russias-asymmetric-response/

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Aug 15 2023 19:29 utc | 36

The USA must take Russia down! Otherwise, the USA loses its world hegemony which is backed by world reserve currency status of the United States Dollar (USD).
Since Nixon took the USD off of the gold standard, the USD has been backed by oil. Since the USD was taken off the gold standard, the USA via its military forced the world to trade oil only in USDs. Any country that got out of line and started to use any currency outside of the USD for the trade of oil was quickly punished. This is why both Iraq and Libya were severely punished via the USA military.
Now, Russia is standing up to the hegemony of the USA. It has defied the USA and must be taken down.
The plan was to hit Russia with sanctions and with defeat on the zero line in Ukraine. The West was pretty confident that this approach would take Russia down.
Now, the USA is not so confident that this strategy is going to work. The Russians are pretty much holding the line with the lastest Ukrainian offensive. Not only are they holding the line, they are pretty much decimating the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
Overall, if you look at the Russian gains in the north of the zero line and the Ukrainian gains in the south of the zero line, the conflict is pretty much at a stalemate.
This is really bad news for Ukraine because their latest and greatest army is getting chewed up bad by the Russian defenses.
On the economic front, the Russian ruble recently took a huge devaluation. I don’t know how this is going to affect the Russians since they are pretty well been cut off from trade within the SWIFT banking system anyway.
It looks unlikely that the USA is going to be able to take Russia down either on the battle front or economically. We will have to see how the latest devaluation of the Russian ruble is going to affect Russia.
Where does this leave the USA? It leaves the USA in a snare. Its original plan is not working out so well. And Russia has been burned by the West too many times to seriously go to the negotiating table again.
The longer Russia’s SMO in Ukraine continues, the more real the seriousness of the situation becomes to the USA.
The USA can’t get out of the snare it now finds itself in. The only way out will be to take down the current Russian regime or to escalate towards nuclear war.
Maybe the USA has snipers that will soon take their positions to take Putin out? Maybe the 4400 page plan presented to NATO at the Vilnius Summit last month will work to destroy the Russian empire?
However, any plan that is 4400 pages long, could go wrong in a really bad way. Too complicated and too many things could go wrong especially since the Russians have a copy of the plan.
The eagle (USA) is snared by its own hegemony. And it can’t get free. The hunter (Russia) is soon coming to check his traps.
This is not a good position to be in. This really bad situation could lead to the end of at least the hegemony of the USA, perhaps of the USA itself?

Posted by: young | Aug 15 2023 19:32 utc | 38

the alternative would be an endless war
Posted by: Stop the War | Aug 15 2023 16:09 utc | 1
Standing in any West European capital, look around and ask yourself: if these men are mobilized and told to go to Ukraine to fight the Russians, what happens?

Posted by: Passerby | Aug 15 2023 19:42 utc | 40

WORD ABOUT MEAT GRINDERS
The Russians have expanded their Bakhmut meat grinder to an entire front meat grinder.
Wager’s cook, Prigozhin, has developed some really nice recipes for the AFU as they fed his Bakhmut meat grinder.
Now, it looks like the Russian military has copied the recipe and has expanded it to the entire zero line.
The Russian troops really like the dishes being served by the new meat grinders. It means they can continue to eat and drink another day.
The same can’t be said for many Ukrainian troops which have not and will not be so lucky.

Posted by: young | Aug 15 2023 19:53 utc | 42

Here’s what a possible peace treaty between Washington, Moscow and Kiev should be:
– Not joining any military alliance and making nuclear weapons until 2070.
– Ceding Crimea, Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye with recognization as Russians.
– Commissioning blue helmets in Ukraine until 2070.
– Dissolving Azov.
– Demilitarized zones in Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye.
– Reduction of Moscow’s military expenditure to 2% of Russia’s economy until 2070.
– Transfering CBR’s frozen assets to NBU.
– Lifting some sanctions against Moscow.
– Resignation of Vladimir Putin as president.
This might seem like a defeat for Moscow to all of you but let’s be honest, the alternative would be an endless war where the western bloc benefitting from Russian and Ukrainian youths uselessly dying.
Posted by: Stop the War | Aug 15 2023 16:09 utc | 1
—————————————————————-
I guess you think you’re being cute, but you are not half as smart as most people on this site; excluding some trolls.
So, let’s try this again:
– Who is not joining any military alliance and making nuclear weapons until 2070. You don’t make that clear. Surely you mean Ukraine will not join a military alliance until 2070, but why not ever letting Ukraine join a military alliance. Also, NATO does not claim to be a military alliance, it claims to be a defensive (peaceful) alliance. Also, who is not to make nuclear weapons? Russia? the US? Ukraine? Are you calling for an international freeze on all nuclear weapons? I think that would be great.
– Ceding Crimea, Donbass, Kherson and Zaporizhya with recognition as Russians. Who is ceding what? Are you ceding these Russian Oblast back to Ukraine? Is Ukraine ceding them to Russia? Or is Ukraine expecting to get all five (Donbass includes Lugansk and Donetsk Oblasts) back if only Kiev concedes that most of the people who lived there before the 2014 US coup were Russian? The Russian’s who live or did live in those Oblasts have already been there, done that, and bought the t-Shirt. They are done with Kiev and its Nazis.
— Commissioning blue helmets in Ukraine until 2070. This tells me you are nothing but a brained washed Biden liberal. You might as well have said the CIA or the NED should be commissioned, they own the “blue Helmets,” fool!
— Dissolving Azov. Dissolve it into what? You want these Nazi killers to just walk free. By the way, there are more Nazis groups then just the Azov Brigade. How about they all be rounded up and put in jail to be investigated and tried for war crimes by their victims from the five Oblasts? That way we will get the Hitler/Bandera loving, Russian hating, mother uffers off the streets.
– “Demilitarized zones in Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye.” Good one troll, let’s demilitarize the victims of the US/NATO, Nazi proxy war. Why not demilitarize all Western Ukraine as well? Duh! Didn’t think of that!
-“Reduction of Moscow’s military expenditure to 2% of Russia’s economy until 2070.” Or let’s just do away with NATO all together and reduce the US military budget to 2%, See this from Wikipedia: Spending (US$ bn) 1: United States: 738.0 2: China: 193.3 3: India: 64.1 4: United Kingdom: 61.5 5: Russia: 60.6 6: France: 56.8 7: Germany: 51.3 8: Japan: 49.7 9: Saudi Arabia: 48.5 10: South Korea: 40.4 11: Australia: 31.3 12: Italy: 29.3 13: Brazil: 22.1 14: Canada: 20.0 15: Israel: 19. (This does not include the NATO budget)
-“Transferring CBR’s frozen assets to NBU.” Better yet just give it back to Russia, it is their money.
-“Lifting some sanctions against Moscow.” Why some, why not all the sanctions? The US, the EU, and NATO are responsible for this proxy conflict: Oh, I forgot that you forgot to read about the US history with Russia after the collapse of the USSR before you popped off about your “end the war” bullshit.
– “Resignation of Vladimir Putin as president.” Why should Putin resign? Biden is the war monger who started this proxy war. You talk shit about negotiating a peace deal now, after hundreds of thousands of people died and the Donbas is a total waste land, but Biden refused to use simple diplomacy to negotiate a deal to prevent a war in the first place. President Putin all but got on his hands and knees asking for a negotiated peace before the SMO started. But you wouldn’t know this because for you think Putin woke up on the morning of 24 February 2022, and said to himself “today is a good day for war, I think will invade Ukraine today.”
You said: “This might seem like a defeat for Moscow to all of you but let’s be honest, the alternative would be an endless war where the western bloc benefitting from Russian and Ukrainian youths uselessly dying.”
Yes, it would be a defeat for Moscow, and that is why it will never happen as you stated it. But let me he honest with you: The war can stop tomorrow if Joe Biden wanted it to. All he must do is tell NATO, no more weapons to Ukraine and the US to do the same. Then tell his well-paid puppet, Zelensky, to sit down with Moscow and commence negotiations for peace.
A cease fire could be put in place within hours, But Zelensky cannot do that because the Nazis he surrounded himself with would kill him in a heartbeat. Therefore, Zelensky must make a trip to the US and then declare his resignation as President of Ukraine and retire to one of his three multi-million-dollar villas (two in the USA), then Biden can appoint a temporary leader just like Vicky Nuland did after the US/NATO coup in March of 2014 which outed the legally elected President of Ukraine.
Good day sir/ma’am?

Posted by: Ed | Aug 15 2023 20:12 utc | 44

#1 produced too many comments.
Did Blinken, recently, somewhere, claim that Putin had already lost?
There is some mileage in covering here the Western propaganda machine ‘withdrawal.’ Seems that the ‘hopium’ was and continues to be, quite addictive.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 15 2023 20:15 utc | 46

Norwegian | Aug 15 2023 20:12 utc | 44
“Challenger 2 spotted.
A last ditch effort?”
They will be lucky to get to the first ditch intact, even with a chicken coop on the roof.

Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 15 2023 20:20 utc | 48

Áobh O’Sheachnasaigh | Aug 15 2023 18:33 utc | 26
—-
Thank you for not using any four-letter words in your apropos 1-point peace plan. 🙂

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Aug 15 2023 20:25 utc | 50

Well, from where I’m sitting, neither the collective West will not be invited to or involved in any peace negotiations. Russia and probably China, Iran and the African Union will be the Arbiters of the Terms following Ukraine’s unconditional surrender. The collective West will not be invited to the Table, neither should they be.

Posted by: Jo Dominich | Aug 15 2023 20:35 utc | 52

I don’t know why anybody bothers answering StoptheWar. What a waste of brain cells.

Posted by: Jaime | Aug 15 2023 20:56 utc | 54

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 15 2023 20:26 utc | 50 “As for finding a solution to the situation in Ukraine, it’s clear to RoW that the first step would be the removal of those who illegally gained power in 2014 ”
Z didn’t come to power in 2014. It was an election or two later. Your argument is that everyone in office in Ukraine now should be tossed out because of what happened in earlier elections?

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 15 2023 21:20 utc | 56

PRESSTITUTES ADMIT UKRAINE “OUTDYING” RUSSIA 13 TO 1: Mediazona, which works with BBC, quietly confesses to 30k Russian losses (see pic), while we exclusively revealed Ukraine’s are 400,000.
In a morbid case of projection, Ukraine’s shocking death toll from its infamous cannon fodder tactic is practically identical to what it used to claim for Russia
intelrepublic telegram
We stand ready to assist Ukrainian refugees in Russia at Moscow’s potential request – UN High Commissioner for Refugees
Most amount of Ukrainian refugees accepted by one country is Russia, with more than 2.8 million people. oops so Rf is the majority nation for ukroid refugees UN admits

Posted by: hankster | Aug 15 2023 21:35 utc | 58

Karlof1 @ 50
Karlof1 usefully directs us to ponder Russia’s endgame–the Westard/UkroNazi maximalist & deluded realist takes have taken up far too much space.
Not that Karlof1’s scenario should be consider maximalist, but I do think it useful to try to conceive of a maximalism that will have been tempered by the later stages of this war, be that over the next 6 months or the next 2 years.
VV Putin is statesman enough to prefer a bad peace to a clear military victory above a certain threshold of cost in Russian blood. I suspect he is also sufficiently master of himself to be wary of Gorbachev’s path of vainly striving to be seen as a visionary by those unfit to render judgements on his legacy.
But at the moment I see an ambitious Russian settlement of this contest as being only secondarily about Ukrainian territory. Since a bad peace with the current cast of Western leaders only means a bigger war postponed, I see VVP working to overcome his most conciliatory impulses and forcing a negotiation of the Dec 21 ultimata–and demanding early concrete concessions (such as the removal of the Aegis Ashore missile complex in Romania–as a *precondition* for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
I could actually see Russia preferring the current SMO to virtually any post-war scenario that does not entail a serious stand-down of Western forces. Rollback of NATO to 1997 borders, a treaty forbidding foreign NATO troops in countries bordering Russia, banning missile complexes within reach of Russia’s borders–that sort of thing.
Until NATO breaks or the US stands down in a concrete way, Russia may prefer to continue to grind–demilitarizing NATO, de-dollarizing the world financial system, leading the Rest of the World to divert trade and especially *strategic-resource* flows away from the West (Nigerien uranium anyone)….

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Aug 15 2023 21:44 utc | 60

According to some indirect data, it can be concluded that the enemy began to use his main reserve in Zaporozhye (this is evidenced by the first destroyed Stryker and the appearance of the Challengers).
In place of the inhabitants of large cities of Ukraine, first of all, of course, Kyiv, I would not be happy.
The activation of the main reserve suggests that now a total mobilization, like the one that is happening in Western Ukraine, will finally touch the capital of the former Ukraine in the near future.
Older than Edda

The mobilization in Ukraine finally started touching Kiev… probably meaning they are on the last legs. Also Stryker vehicles being used, and Challenger’s (all 20 of them) spotted in the Zaporozhye line.

[ Album ]
‼️Ukraine:
In Bukovyna, one police officer with the help of 6 locals were smuggling people over the border to Romania.
One such trip to Roman was between $3,000-$7,000.
-> Police crackdown one mobilization evaders continues …
“>https://t.me/myLordBebo/4053

Zelensky/Nato will try to drag as many Ukrainian’s to the grave as possible.

Yuri 15th Aug PART 2: Mobilisation
The state of Ukraine is ALREADY DOOMED, but it will try to drag as many Ukrainians as possible to the grave
Moreover, it is doomed, even if the war stops tomorrow. And it is not even economically doomed (although economically too). It is doomed – demographically.
But, unfortunately, this is not the worst news for its inhabitants.
#source
(https://t.me/yurasumy/10242)@Slavyangrad

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 15 2023 21:56 utc | 62

AFU has suffered a strategic defeat even only due to the fact that they have transferred 6 motorized brigades from Zaporozhye direction to the Kupyansk-Lyman direction. Yet they are unable to stop RU there, while they have significantly weakened their abilities in the Zaporozhye front.
If they are having to shift stuff from one front to the other, instead of drawing from uncommitted reserve, and it produces no results for defense in the north, while critically weakening the offensive in the south. You could argue things are then stretching and will break apart first here, there, and then everywhere.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJZGQ5uzsBo

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 15 2023 22:07 utc | 64

Ed4 | Aug 15 2023 21:20 utc | 55–
The entire “government” apparatus in Kiev is illegitimate from my POV. That of course brings up a whole barrel of issues related to Russia’s and the UNSC’s interactions with the golpistas. A question I’d like to put to both Putin and Lavrov: Why did Russia recognize the junta as legitimate? But beyond that issue, let’s examine the legality of Ukraine’s current regime. The regime has declared and attempted to enforce Genocide on Russians, Russian speakers regardless of ethnicity, all things related to Russian Culture, including the Russian Orthodox Church, which is to say that Ukraine and its allies have committed and continue to commit the #1 crime of Genocide which essentially eliminates it as a legitimate government. It can be well argued that such a policy aim was instituted back in 1945 when the USA rescued Nazism from certain death by keeping it alive in the OUN and within Western Europe of which ample documentation exists. When we get down to historical truths, WW2 never completely ended as Nazism wasn’t vanquished as agreed to by the allied powers; nor have the Four Freedoms been realized as those who saved Nazism made sure to continue their Colonial, Imperial habits and deny the vast majority of humanity what was pledged to be the political goals of WW2. It’s clear to millions that NATO’s goal is to finish Hitler’s Plan Ost, thus rendering the current conflict existential for Russia and Russians–everywhere.
To follow up on its continual breaking of the UN Charter since October 1945, in 1996 and again in 1999 the Outlaw US Empire declared its goal to establish Full Spectrum Domination over the planet and its people. Those declarations of policy remain today’s policy and thus render the Outlaw US Empire and all its vassals enemies of the UN Charter and of all humanity, and that includes Ukraine’s junta. Essentially if we could have an objective dejure rendering, all those entities would be considered illegitimate governments because they certainly don’t promote the interests of their civilian polities which is what legitimate nations are required to do under international law.
So, the Big Picture Reality is the Outlaw US Empire and its vassals are all illegitimate, outlaw nations waging war on the legitimate nations of the world through a variety of means. Yes, it’s a World War that was declared in 1996, if not before. The real question: When and how will the Outlaw US Empire surrender (unleashing nuclear war would be a form of surrender)?

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 15 2023 22:10 utc | 66

There is no path to a successful conclusion of the war for Russia that does not include a confrontation and defeat of Nato. I don’t think the Russians believed that in Feb 2022, but they are coming to believe it now. Any negotiated peace that is not more or less dictated by Russia will simply be a pause to enable Nato to restart the war 3 or 5 years down the road when Nato is bette prepared.
This is the dilemma Russia finds itself in. Russia is now as strong as it will ever be. It’s now or never. Why does Russia continue to mobilize (30-40k men per month). Why is there even mention of another formal mobilization of 500k. Is it really necessary just to finish Ukraine ?
It may be that Russia cannot defeat Nato in a conventional fight, but unless the Russian government thinks it can fool the Russian people with a defeat dressed up in words, Russia will have no choice.
In my view it will start with Russia shooting down Nato drones operating in international waters over the black sea.

Posted by: danf51 | Aug 15 2023 22:39 utc | 68

Thanks for the other replies to my comment @50 and to that made by Ed4. As you see by my @65, I take a holistic, Big Picture approach to our current conflict which IMO is the correct way of dissecting it. IMO, it’s vital to weigh the words spoken today by Putin and Lavrov with the actions taken by the illegitimate Western nations–and that goes double for those living within those nations. IMO, solving the conflict requires removing the ability to pursue Megalomania and its partner Pleonexia by the outlaw nations, or more specifically their elites who are to be found at the top of their financial structures, since those are what control those nations’ governments. Let’s look at their definitions:
“Megalomania is an obsession with power and wealth, and a passion for grand schemes.”
Pleonexia: “is strictly defined as ‘the insatiable desire to have what rightfully belongs to others.'”
It’s easy to see that Imperialism/Colonialism is the vehicle used to satisfy both addictions/afflictions. Defeating Dollar Hegemony will greatly reduce power and wealth and the passion required to maintain the hegemony. That will also render it more difficult to gain what isn’t yours. Indeed, a fair-trade regime and the destruction of all loans made in currencies other than that of the loanee nation will further aide that, allowing nations to keep what’s theirs.
As we know, the movement to defeat Dollar Hegemony is well underway and will be successful when all legitimate nations stand together in this quest/conflict, which is what Putin said again today. The other aspect of this is continuing business with the illegitimate nations. If that’s to be done, then demand payments be made in the nation’s own currency–don’t accept euros, dollars or yen; create a demand for your national currency instead of accepting something easily printed and thus worthless. The sooner the Multipolar Bloc forms and its new international trade and settlement regime becomes reality, the sooner the conflict will end. Yes, the core Imperialist nations will complain, balk and fight, but must be taught they are no longer in control. If they want to participate, they must drastically reform their ways to conform to the new international reality of genuine respect and adherence to international law. The last holdout will be the Outlaw US Empire. But if it can be coaxed into not resorting to nuclear war, then it will need to come to terms with the new reality probably about the time its hydrocarbon reserves become close to nil.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 15 2023 22:57 utc | 70

Posted by: Stop the War | Aug 15 2023 16:09 utc | 1
The art of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is alive and well.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Aug 15 2023 23:04 utc | 72

Currently drone strikes are hitting in Odessa, Nikolaev and Izmail port on the Danube.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 15 2023 23:14 utc | 74

How can there be a settlement with Russia without imprisoning Macron and Trudeau? Put them in 2 separate jail cells, side by side, where they cannot touch each other, but can look longingly and lovingly into each other’s eyes.
But, seriously, any settlement will be under Russian terms. The U.S.A. has no Industrial Capacity, and no hope of any Industrial Capacity for decades, if at all.
U.S. Steel, once one of the biggest Steel Producer on the planet, is now a shell of itself and in play in the market for =/- USD $7 billion. Apple has a market value of USD $3 TRILLION. Financialization produces nothing, just more paper, electronic digits, to churn.
Perhaps the first thread was a poor attempt at Dark Humor.

Posted by: kupkee | Aug 15 2023 23:24 utc | 76

Imo, Zelenskyy’s electoral victory was in large part based on a de facto recognition that there were problems with how the last legitimately elected President had been ousted. Zelenskyy has never had a mandate to suspend elections. During America’s Civil War Lincoln made no moves to suspend elections, and even had the guy who’d recently commanded the Union’s Army, the one responsible for defending the Capitol, run against him.
Any American defending Zelenskyy’s dictatorial move is betraying one of our country’ greatest traditions. Ironically it was Jeff Davis, the President of the Confederacy which claimed to have resented the Union’s tyranny, who acted in a manner far more dictatorial manner than Lincoln when the going gone tough. And like Zelenskyy illegally grabbing regional troops and sending them to act as cannon fodder, so too did Davis illgally usurp the authority of Confederate Governor’s over their State’s militias.
Let’s see if at the end the Zelenskyy government emulates the greediest members of the Confederate government, and escapes with what gold that’s left.
P.S. The great ending to The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly, is about a fight over buried Confederate gold. Worth a watch!

Posted by: Babel-17 | Aug 15 2023 23:40 utc | 78

While the US and its sorry UK/EU vassals will huff and puff and threaten to blow the whole house down like the Big Bad Wolf in a nuclear war against Russia in the event of this defeat, I don’t believe that such a threat is credible as Russia possesses a nuclear arsenal well capable of destroying the Neocolonial West. For that reason of Mutually Assured Destruction, it would not be in the interests of the Neocolonial West to embark on such a suicidal and ruinous course. That said the possibility cannot be totally ruled out either as there is no shortage of headbangers in the power structure of the Neolcolonial West.
Posted by: Gaelach | Aug 15 2023 23:38 utc | 76

The western armchair generals also forget that the only country USA/Nato can count to assume a continued role of Ukraine is Poland, and Baltic chihuahua. Maybe Finland.
And that doesn’t really leave much, they already gave pretty much everything to Ukraine, and while Poland is touted as the new “power of Europe”, the reality is that it is hugely indebted now for ordering weapons it can’t inherently afford, and with weakening Germany, the subsidies, lifeline and blood running Poland are diminishing.
It’s just hard to see “full war” between every country in Nato and Russia. It’s just Poles and Balts. The Turks are out from the beginnig.
Sure you have mercenaries from all around the world, but that’s different. Mercenary bases are blown up on a weekly basis with long range precision weapons degrading morale. Also there’s been many conflicts between “non-Aryan” mercs like Latinos and “Aryan” Ukrainians, they are just saying screw Ukraine, I’m out.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 15 2023 23:53 utc | 80

This might seem like a defeat for Moscow to all of you but let’s be honest, the alternative would be an endless war where the western bloc benefitting from Russian and Ukrainian youths uselessly dying.
Posted by: Stop the War | Aug 15 2023 16:09 utc | 1
rubbish. you forget the whole thing is aggression by Kiev onto its own people in Donbas. To this very day the Donbas is occupied and under seige.
This is because the USA hates Russia. And taught Kiev to hate Russia and Russians.
Let this hate stop. And it all stops.
You don’t see that. No one sees that. Russia has been saying it for decades. No one listens. No one. Not even the Russophiles.

Posted by: arthur brogard | Aug 16 2023 0:09 utc | 82

Posted by: Babel-17 | Aug 15 2023 23:40 utc | 77
——————————————————–
You didn’t mention that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt held elections during WW2.

Posted by: Ed | Aug 16 2023 0:30 utc | 84

NATO will be very busy trying to manage China, Russia, NATO countries’ internal ethnic violence, middle eastern extremists, climate change, etc.
This weakens NATO and compels NATO to agree to anything. Give it some time. Exploit internal divisions in NATO countries.

Posted by: Jason | Aug 16 2023 0:46 utc | 86

Posted by: recoolhair | Aug 16 2023 0:55 utc | 88
Your contribution is more valuable that poster #1’s.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 16 2023 1:11 utc | 88

agree 86 jason. Niger is the perfect example. The UN fled so Wagner took their empty base, USA has at least 2 military bases there as well. So i guess it has to negotiate with the new government and cooperate or end up as Syria in an uninvited internationally illegal position. losing furher leverage on the continent. Couple this with Blinken bloviates about RF colonists when Africa can see actions foremost.

Posted by: hankster | Aug 16 2023 1:14 utc | 90

I have no idea if Stop the War was a NATO plant or just some random guy expressing an opinion. Anyway the board vigilantes put him in his place. Well done guys. He won’t be back.
Most people seem to think there will be no negotiated settlement. At least not one that involves the West. Probably a fair assumption. But there may be other things going on. Zelensky may agree to some kind of talks, short of total surrender. Minsk redux? This will be a sign of weakness of course but the Russians might go for it. Any resolution will involves some kind of compromise. Perhaps the Russians will be generous….maybe even forgiving.

Posted by: dh | Aug 16 2023 1:19 utc | 92

Z | Aug 16 2023 0:48 utc | 87–
As I recall, it’s said that the Truth will set you free. If that’s the case, then I’m quite free. Thank you very much.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 16 2023 1:34 utc | 94

Arch Bungle | Aug 16 2023 1:11 utc | 89
And there is a $150 wig credit for visitors!

Posted by: bevin | Aug 16 2023 1:43 utc | 96

Another perspective on the Afghanistan bugout and Ukraine:
The Russian Federation began the buildup on the Ukraine border just one month after Joe Bribem was inaugurated in 2021. By August of 2021, it was apparent to Bribem that the Russians were going to go into Ukraine.
Panic about the then impending Russian Federation exposing Ukraine/USA corruption was the real reason for the August 2021 bugout from Afghan.
Before today, I thought Afghanistan triggered the SMO, when it clearly was the other way around.

Posted by: william paul | Aug 16 2023 2:00 utc | 98

@ dh | Aug 16 2023 1:19 utc | 93
zelensky is just the figurehead for nato.. he has no say over anything, lol… at least he hasn’t lost his gig as an actor/comedian..

Posted by: james | Aug 16 2023 2:16 utc | 100