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August 10, 2023
Ukraine Open Thread 2023-190
Comments
Apparently Bidet is going to ship 31 obsolete M1A1s to Ukranazistan. They should arrive just in time to get stuck in the autumn mud. On the other hand, unlike the Brutish Challengers, they will probably at least be sent into combat since they already obsolete and their very public destruction won’t harm the sales of the M1A2s.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 10 2023 13:21 utc | 1
Russias reinforcements to North Kharkov is bearing fruit, mandatory evacuations are being ordered around kupyiansk.
Now to see if russia can solve offensive operations.
Ukrainian operations are grinding to a halt as well, probably sending reinforcements north. Must be serious.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 10 2023 13:25 utc | 2
The final Kiev regime collapse is approaching. We still don’t know exactly when or how. But it will not be gradual.
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 10 2023 13:29 utc | 3
Hardass yanks doin it for Ukraine.
“Every Russian Federation soldier out of Ukraine or under the soil”.
https://twitter.com/operativno_zsu/status/1689320231456448516
I hope to see progress reports on these guys.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 10 2023 13:32 utc | 4
I found it interesting to read this bit of news from RT this morning:
“Ukrainian authorities have announced a mandatory evacuation in part of Kharkov Region bordering Russia’s Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. The order comes after the Defense Ministry in Moscow said its troops had made headway in the area.
In a written order on Thursday, Andrey Kanashevich, acting head of the Kupyansk military administration, published a list of 37 settlements near the combat zone that were to be evacuated by local residents. He cited “constant [Russian] artillery attacks and the security situation” as the reason for the decision, adding that the order also applies to the city of Kupyansk itself.”
This is in contrast with usual Ukrainian policy of keeping civilians in the besieged town as cover for their infantry groups, anti-air and artillery. Instead, evacuating civilians would mean they don’t want potential manpower to fall into Russian hands.
Are they actually planning a retreat of Kupyansk because they know they can’t hold it?
Posted by: Lemming | Aug 10 2023 13:40 utc | 5
Let us write a novel in the style of Frederick Forsyth.
For the sake of discussion let us suppose, hypothetically, the following storyline:
– The US provides targeting intelligence
– UK and other NATO allies provide air-to-surface missiles
– fighter-bomber jets wearing Ukrainian colors takes off from a Polish airport, missiles loaded
– the fighter-bombers briefly touch down at a Ukrainian airfield, refuel, and take off towards the Russian border
– fire missiles towards Russian-held territory from a safe stand-off distance, outside the range of Russian air defense
– fly back, briefly touching down at an Ukrainian airfield
– and return to Poland for maintenance and reloading
Plausible denial needs intermediaries, and this story has an abundance of them.
The fighter-bombers could be Soviet-era Su-24 today, or US-built F16 tomorrow, does not matter as long as they stay out of Russian radar range.
It does not even have to be airplanes. You could store naval drones on the NATO side of a river that discharges in the Black Sea, and pass the drones to the Ukrainian side for launching; the script stays the same.
What are the costs and benefits of this approach? What is the risk of a “Gary Powers” moment? Any twists and turns in the storyline you might suggest?
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 10 2023 13:40 utc | 6
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 10 2023 13:40 utc | 6
UK and USA is using Ukraine to take pot shots on RU, OK. Nothing new here. RU is willing to tolerate this as long as it has little ability to alter the overall situation, and it doesn’t directly affect even anything that is happening on the front.
That is also the limit US can do without going directly against RU forces.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 10 2023 13:51 utc | 7
A SUGGESTION – FACTS ONLY
The Ukraine War threads regularly run over 300 posts. b’s guidance says to “Contribute facts”. But those facts get buried in all the analysis and commentary. So…
How about a thread called “Ukraine War – Facts Only” in which no commentary or analysis is allowed? Just posting facts. Obviously the RU MoD (and Ukraine equivalent) are facts. News stories about facts are OK. News stories that are commentary, spin, or obvious lies are not facts.
This would allow people to go quickly find facts, and even reference those posts (e.g., FO-date-post number) in their commentary in the regular Ukraine War thread. Also, it might cut down on duplicate posts of facts, like the RU MoD clobber lists.
Just a suggestion. Trying to help. No offense meant.
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 14:03 utc | 8
Ukraine War – Is the Black Sea ‘War’- the Real War? w/ Alastair Crooke fmr Brit ambassador
30m with JudgeNap
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qiPMp09DtE
>sentiment in west is changing fast
>polling in Poland… no-one beyond the government wants to be the next Ukraine
>Jedda was where the RoW told the West, no more “negotiations” without Russia
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 10 2023 14:12 utc | 9
UK and USA is using Ukraine to take pot shots on RU, OK. Nothing new here. RU is willing to tolerate this as long as it has little ability to alter the overall situation, and it doesn’t directly affect even anything that is happening on the front.
That is also the limit US can do without going directly against RU forces.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 10 2023 13:51 utc | 7
And that’s the correct strategy for Russia. The maximalists generally refuse to consider that Russia has limitations on its actions that the US doesn’t have, both for practical purposes and diplomatic relations. Some of the restraint is self imposed by Russia to limit the scale and scope of potential escalation. Obviously Russia could shoot down drones over the Black Sea that provide reconnaissance for Ukrainian attacks. There may come a point when Russia does it, but by the time Russia does it, most of the world will look at the action and wonder how Russia maintained patience and composure as long as it did.
I think there’s another angle worth considering in all of this. The US wants a Russian reaction. Not giving the US the reaction it wants has a value because it limits US action against Russia and frustrates the US insomuch as its provocations are ineffectual. Let’s assume that Biden would like an escalation even to the point of direct conflict; Russia not reacting limits Biden and constrains what he actually wants to do.
Posted by: Lex | Aug 10 2023 14:52 utc | 10
From Paul Craig Roberts: Putin’s Excessive Caution Is Leading Directly to WW III
After 18 months of an ever widening war, Putin is still unable to recognize the failure of his “limited military operation.” Far from convincing Washington that his interests are limited to protecting the Russian people in former Russian territory who were dumped by Soviet leaders into the Ukraine province of the Soviet Union, Putin has convinced Washington that Russia is weak and that he is irresolute.
The consequence has been an ever widening war and a massive expansion of NATO on Russia’s northwestern border with the addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO. And now Putin’s hesitancy, which seems permanent, is bringing him the occupation of western Ukraine by the Polish army.
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu has shown no brilliance in the campaign either, but he now recognizes the failure of the “limited military operation” to protect Russia’s security and to keep NATO’s presence from increasing on Russia’s borders.
Today Shoigu said that Poland is preparing a pretext to occupy western Ukraine. As Ukraine has run out of troops, Poland is moving in. Washington won’t call it an invasion.
Shoigu went further, whether with Putin’s approval or as a criticism of the failed “limited military operation” I cannot say. At today’s meeting of the board of the military department, Shoigu said: “In the western and northwestern strategic directions, the threats to the military security of Russia have increased manifold.” He said that Finland and Sweden’s accession into NATO is a “serious destabilizing factor.” Shoigu pointed out that since the beginning of the “limited military operation” NATO formations have increased 2.5 times.
This is hardly a picture of success, so why is Putin sticking with a failed policy? With the failure of the Ukrainian counterattack and decimation of the Ukrainian army, now is the time for the Russian offensive. But there is no sign of it.
US Col. Douglas Macgregor has concluded that Putin is actually holding back a Russian advance, wasting precious time before the rainy season begins. From a military standpoint, it is mindless for Putin to let pass the opportunity to strike his devastated opponent and bring the conflict to a quick end before Washington can further escalate the conflict. Instead, Putin is providing Poland the opportunity to move into Western Ukraine. It seems obvious that this will result in a wider and more dangerous combat.
Col. Macgregor now agrees with what I have been saying for 18 months, that Putin is perceived in the West as irresolute and can be defeated or at least discredited in Russia as a failed war leader. As I have stressed, this is a very dangerous perception. Provocations of Russia will increase to a point where war will break out. Col. Macgregor now sees the situation as I do.
Perhaps Putin would do well to take a cue from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar:
There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.
Posted by: Perimetr | Aug 10 2023 15:08 utc | 11
What is happening near Kupyansk: analysis of the Military chronicle
The situation in this direction is rapidly becoming more complicated for the APU. There are few options for responding, and none of them is good or at least acceptable for the Ukrainian army.
What is happening in the Kupyansk direction?
Units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation during the offensive came close to Sinkovka — one of the last settlements before Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region. Kupyansk, which is only 7 km away from the Russian army, as well as the AFU facilities around it, is located in the zone of destruction of Russian artillery.
In parallel, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation advanced towards Kamenka and Dvurechnaya in the north-east of the Kharkiv region, which forced the AFU to stretch its forces and decompress the defense in these areas. Over the past four weeks, all the border facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — headquarters of companies and battalions, warehouses with fuel and ammunition — have been actively practiced by Russian aviation. FAB-250-M62 and UPAB-1500 bombs were used from a range of 50 km, which is why Aspide and Soviet Strela short-range air defense systems did not have time to react and were destroyed along with key objects of the Ukrainian army. After a few weeks of air strikes on the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kupyansky district, almost all units of the Ukrainian army began to experience a shortage of ammunition.
Which units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are located near Kupyansk?
At least ten large formations of the AFU were left for the defense of the Kupyansky district: the 10th and 36th separate rifle battalions, the 5th separate battalion, the 3rd separate tank Brigade, the 14th OMBR, the 103rd and 105th brigades of the TRO, the 92nd OMBr, the 132nd ODSHB, 27th OReABr. At the same time, the greatest forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are thrown at the defense of the Sinkovsky ledge, the protection of which, to put it mildly, is complicated by some features of the terrain. Sinkovka and Kupyansk are often compared with Artemovsk because of their geographical location.
What is the importance of Kupyansky district for the AFU?
Both settlements are located in the lowlands and surrounded by hills, which complicates their defense and simplifies the assault using artillery. Another problematic point in the Kupyansky district for the APU is the so—called eastern corner – the place where the villages of Kotlyarovka and Kislovka are located.
A railway line runs through them, leading directly to Kupyansk-uzlovoy — the central logistics hub of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (not counting Chuguev and Kharkov) in the Kharkiv direction, connecting three regions of Ukraine.
To the south of Kupyansk-uzlovoye, in addition to small towns, there is Slavyansk, the supply of which may be disrupted by the abandonment of Kupyansk by Ukrainian troops.
In addition to the loss of control over the railway connection, the abandonment of Kupyansk by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation may open the way to Shevchenkovo and Chuguev along the N-26 highway.
The distance from Kupyansk to Chuguev by road is 80 km, the direct distance is less than 65 km, which, if Kupyansk is lost by the Ukrainian army, automatically means that it becomes possible to work on Chuguev with long—range rocket artillery and planning FAB—250-M62 aerial bombs.
Will the AFU hold Kupyansk?
The main forces of the Ukrainian army are involved in the offensive on Zaporozhye and in the South Donetsk direction. An attempt to keep the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation near Kupyansk with the help of operational reserves has so far led to nothing.
Most likely, in order to create an effective defense along the borders of the Kupyansky district, the AFU will need to attract strategic reserves. It is possible, although unlikely, that in order to suspend or at least slow down the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in this area, the AFU will remove some units from other sectors of the front. Both options with the involvement of strategic reserves or front-line units rest on the lack of ammunition and the inability to suppress or at least disrupt the work of Russian aviation using bombs and guided missiles from a distance of 40-50 km.
In addition, the use of the Geran-2 UAV and Iskander ballistic missiles against particularly important AFU facilities in this area does not stop, which further complicates the defense of the Kupyansky district and each time requires the involvement of larger and larger forces.
milchronicles
Posted by: Avian | Aug 10 2023 15:14 utc | 12
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 14:03 utc | 8
I see where you’re coming from, John. The western medias gross distortion on basic facts leads us to believe that simply a neutral presentation of the facts is sufficient to get us back to a healthy society.
However, gathering facts is only one part of the process. Next step is making sense of those facts as B often does in his brief reports and as the bar collectively does after the fact.
Without analysis and hypothesis and then at some point the development of policies that would aid the greatest number of people, the facts are just dead things like numbers. Giving up the effort to organize these facts into a picture of reality, to capture the movement of that reality and find opportunity in it to intervene…to give that up would greatly aid the imperialists.
If the analysis and perspective flys post bothers you, disagree, show why they’re wrong or just ignore it and find flys you like. But, to call for a thread that deliberately retards the organic movement of process is a mistake.
There are classes of people in modern society with directly opposed interests. The smaller of those two fundamental classes currently holds all power and make all the decisions, which is why many intelligent people are relegated to the bar in the first place.
The reality is you have to decide do you identify with the working and poor majority of the world (including Americans) or do you identify with the ruling class. Facts are interpreted very differently depending on your choice.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 10 2023 15:15 utc | 13
First Turkiye now France, why do I not believe these are accidents? I doubt it was the Ruskies, someone is all for scarcity, starvation, and high prices and that has WEF and Empire of Chaos written all over it.
Major fire ongoing in four grain silos in France’s La Rochelle
https://www.reuters.com/article/france-fire-idAFP6N37C000
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/74927
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 10 2023 15:15 utc | 14
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 10 2023 15:15 utc | 13
The western medias gross distortion on basic facts leads us to believe that simply a neutral presentation of the facts is sufficient to get us back to a healthy society.
However, gathering facts is only one part of the process. Next step is making sense of those facts as B often does in his brief reports and as the bar collectively does after the fact.
—-
I don’t think you understand what I’m proposing. I’m not saying we shouldn’t discuss and analyze the facts. I’m just asking that we set up, in addition to that analysis, some kind of index that lets us find more easily the basic material that we are analyzing.
If the analysis and perspective flys post bothers you, disagree, show why they’re wrong or just ignore it and find flys you like. But, to call for a thread that deliberately retards the organic movement of process is a mistake.
You completely misunderstand me. I’m not saying I disagree with doing analysis. I’m simply tired of having to hunt through hundreds of lengthy posts for a fact that was posted three layers of response down in some argument. My hope is to facilitate argument by letting new people entering a discussion deep in a 300 post thread quickly find the fact s that are the subject of the argument.
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 15:26 utc | 16
Posted by: Perimetr | Aug 10 2023 15:08 utc | 11
Disagree. I highly doubt the imperialists think Putin is not resolute and if they do, so what?
What are their options? They can watch Ukraine be systematically destroyed or they can start WW3 with china/Russia just as their base of operations in the US is weaker than it has ever been since WW2.
Their initial error in thinking Russia would just collapse after imposing sanctions and sending some doped up Nazis weapons greatly exacerbated their current weakness. In other words they already placed big bets on Putin being irresolute and craped out.
The smo may not proceed at the pace that the commentariat prefers, but I think you can rest assured great numbers of intelligent, sane men in Russia/China know exactly what they’re doing.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 10 2023 15:30 utc | 17
We all know about the Western Media bs about how Russia is collapsing and saint Zelensky crap, but you gotta admit despite dodging some pretty big bullets since the war started and stopping the offensive so far, things aren’t all that rosy either in Russia. What commentators like to refer to as pinpricks have the potential to grow into some major cracks:
If the Russian economy is ‘thriving’ since the war started as some commentators would have us believe, how is it that the Ruble is at 16 month low and still tanking:
https://www.rt.com/business/581089-ruble-among-worst-performing-currencies/
World best air defense? Attack Drones landing in Moscow are now a daily occurrence:
https://www.rt.com/russia/581073-russia-downs-drones/
Weapons factories also ‘self destruct’:
https://www.rt.com/russia/581065-factory-blast-moscow-region-video/
And this is just what we hear about from their State Media.
Meanwhile, Prigozhin is still a free man, while people criticizing the military get sent to jail. If you believe the BBC, Wagner’s released criminals are re-offending, while some were released only months after violent crimes like murder, allegedly:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66364272
If true, shame on Russia, if fake news, shame on UK… (they have no shame, but whatevs).
Black Sea routes are under threat with 2 ships recently attacked… insurers must be getting nervous, once they bail out, it’s gamer over. What was the point of the SMO or taking Crimea when you can’t ship anything in or out?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-04/ukraine-attack-on-russian-warship-disrupts-commodity-export-hub#xj4y7vzkg
Russia better get its act together or find a way to respond where it hurts, cos all these ‘pinpricks’ just encourage those wanting to destroy it and all have the potential to turn into much bigger problems.
Posted by: Rubiconned | Aug 10 2023 15:31 utc | 18
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 10 2023 13:40 utc | 6
With a bit of elbow grease and duct tape those cruise missiles could be got into their air with booster rockets from much closer to the front, just like UA have already done with old Tu-141 jet drones.
Ask yourself why Ukraine’s sponsors are bothering to retrofit Soviet vintage planes to fire these cruise missiles and why the carpet has long been rolled out for F-16s to be provided, then try to factor in the 1994 Ukraine war strategy in Barry Posen’s 1994 “A Defense Concept for Ukraine” and how events are still largely following that script.
A lot of this is weirdly artificial, perhaps a form of pistol duelling, to keep nukes at bay, although only RF seems genuinely to abhor the use of nukes, and is thus, to some degree, cornered by rats.
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 10 2023 15:31 utc | 19
Facts are interpreted very differently depending on your choice.
—-
My suggestion is only for the Ukraine War thread. I am all for examining interpretations. My problem is finding the original statement (fact) that is the subject of all the interpretation amongst the rapidly proliferating analysis that, at best and for good reason, usually provides only snips of the original statement.
The Ukriane War is very factual. Missile X hit target Y. Government official A made statement B. Military organization P posted clobber list Q. Terrorist act N happened at location M.
I don’t need a course in Franz Fanon to deal with that kind of subject matter.
Do you understand what I am saying?
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 15:33 utc | 20
. I’m simply tired of having to hunt through hundreds of lengthy posts for a fact that was posted three layers of response down in some argument. My hope is to facilitate argument by letting new people entering a discussion deep in a 300 post thread quickly find the fact s that are the subject of the argument.
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 15:26 utc | 16
Good idea or otherwise, use of this website is free and it doesn’t post advertising. So, just how much service can us freeloader posters expect?
Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 10 2023 15:33 utc | 21
Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 10 2023 15:33 utc | 21
OK. I wasn’t clear. Posting to the FACTS ONLY thread would have to be done by the posters themselves, as a public service on their part. Of course that would lead to disagreements, but if done in the right spirit, it could ease finding info.
You are correct that I didn’t even think about this as a burden to be dumped on B.
As I said, it was just a suggestion. You have pointed out a flaw in it. Thank you.
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 15:37 utc | 22
@ Posted by: Perimetr | Aug 10 2023 15:08 utc | 11
In a sense kind of similar to the point i was making. Playing the long game comes with its own risks too.
As Westerners, we can be grateful for Putin’s abundance of caution, but at some point those looking to destroy him may turn out to be a greater danger to us if left free to continue.
Americans only respond to strength. So long as they perceive weakness they will continue, emboldened by their sense of impunity. I don’t see what kind of deterrence Russia has in mind between not reacting and using nukes, but one must admit the US/NATO does plausible deniability, proxies and deterrence much more effectively, so far anyway.
Posted by: Rubiconned | Aug 10 2023 15:45 utc | 23
https://www.rt.com/***news/581096-poland-army-belarus-border/
remove the asricks to visit the link.
Poland is set to deploy thousands of additional troops to its border with Belarus .., Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said on Thursday.
Speaking to Polskie Radio, Blaszczak stated that “we are moving the army closer to the border with Belarus” in order to “scare the aggressor so that he does not dare to attack us.” The minister added that security in the region would be underpinned by 10,000 soldiers, with 4,000 assigned to directly support the Border Guard, and another 6,000 held in reserve.
Blaszczak’s comments also come after Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced on Wednesday that Moscow would bolster its troops on its western borders amid a stand-off over the Ukraine conflict. In his speech, he described Poland as a “key instrument of anti-Russia policies of the US.” He also claimed that Warsaw is actively trying to build up “the most powerful army” in Europe, which, according to Polish officials, now numbers around 170,000 service members.
Posted by: snake | Aug 10 2023 15:48 utc | 24
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 15:37 utc | 22
##########
It will be an engineering miracle when you finally figure out how to effectively and consistently herd cats.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 10 2023 15:58 utc | 25
Obviously Russia could shoot down drones over the Black Sea that provide reconnaissance for Ukrainian attacks.
It’s more than recon. Those sea drones are streaming high quality video. The US is providing comms to the drones, and likely operating them. But they are definitely providing comms.
Posted by: JackG | Aug 10 2023 15:58 utc | 26
Americans only respond to strength. So long as they perceive weakness they will continue, emboldened by their sense of impunity. I don’t see what kind of deterrence Russia has in mind between not reacting and using nukes, but one must admit the US/NATO does plausible deniability, proxies and deterrence much more effectively, so far anyway.
Posted by: Rubiconned | Aug 10 2023 15:45 utc | 23
###########
People who are insulated from the consequences of their decisions rarely respond to stimuli.
Many do not want to hear this but the West will stop when the West is brought to its knees. The Russians (and friends) are working on doing this economically, rather than militarily. If China and Russia combined, they could steamroll the planet. I suppose we should all be grateful they are not making plans to do so.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 10 2023 16:01 utc | 27
In 1999 the White Russians returned to power. This war is a continuation of the war between bolsheviks and White Russians that began with the failed 1905 revolution. Even the bolshevik families are the same. The neocons descended from Trotsky.
Posted by: JackG | Aug 10 2023 16:01 utc | 28
From RT:
Speaking to Polskie Radio, Blaszczak stated that “we are moving the army closer to the border with Belarus” in order to “scare the aggressor so that he does not dare to attack us.”
Would it not be more correct to say that Poland is stationing those troops because it’s scared of Belarus?
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 10 2023 16:09 utc | 29
Ive heard theres various plots afoot to topple zelensky. The military in general know that a political solution is inevitable so why keep sacrificing men for nothing.
Theres 3 different plots currently running so ive heard.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Aug 10 2023 16:16 utc | 30
Malenkov@28
Tit for tat moves. Poland accuses Belarus of coordinating with Russia while failing to mention Polish coordination with the US. Perhaps they are worried about defending the Suwalki gap or planning for a move into western Ukraine. Saber rattling for the moment.
Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 10 2023 16:23 utc | 31
Frankly you will figure out the facts easily by simply asking yourself “who said that” to any claims made here and elsewhere. Certainly it is annoying that half assed analysis begets more half assed analysis, but at this point you’re better off reading r/WallStreetBets for financial advice than any sort of well rounded and evidence/account based analysis on the ongoing situation.
Some absolute genius, Inkan1969, a few days ago said something to the effect of “Why b has no discussion of the counter offensive for a while? Why no daily open ukraine thread?” As if to suggest it had something to do with some “pro-Putin”/”pro-Russia” ideological bent. Meanwhile, the fog of war made it impossible to discern what was happening on the ground.
Stop trying to divine the stars, take your eyes off your portfolio.
Posted by: shadowloser | Aug 10 2023 16:28 utc | 32
malenkov @ 28
Would it not be more correct to say that Poland is stationing those troops because it’s scared of Belarus?
I’d say so, intially I thought it was Poland escalating and maybe early on they were but I now I think it’s Russia putting on the pressure.
My read, Belarus/Russia have nukes Poland doesn’t. I’m not getting on the troll nuke ’em all bandwagon but Russia is not going to lose 30 million people again fighting the EU a few meters at a time all the way to Belgium. If Poland makes a move against Belarus its NATO bases will get tactically nuked, the message is clear.
Polish leadership has its head so far up their ass they can see the night sky and the full moon. They are in rabid blood lust mode, barking and salivating for the cut up Russian carcass they’ve been promised, not to mention EU economic ascendancy over Germany USA/UK also promised. USA/UK were going to kill many birds with one stone, Russia, China, Germany all easy-peasy. So far they’ve only taken out Germany.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 10 2023 16:37 utc | 33
https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-vows-to-sacrifice-as-many-ukrainian-lives-as-it-takes-to-defeat-russia?utm_source=The%20Babylon%20Bee%20Newsletter&utm_medium=email
A satire joke headline…………or is it?
Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 10 2023 16:45 utc | 34
@ LightYearsFromHome | Aug 10 2023 16:37 utc | 32
I’m not so sure Russia would use (or want to use) tactical nukes to destroy Polish military concentrations in the event of a larger conflagration, but otherwise I agree with your comment in all particulars. You’ve got Poland’s number for sure.
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 10 2023 16:45 utc | 35
The only reason the West can do ANYTHING effectively is they can essentially throw unlimited amounts of money at any problem. This solves many ..but not all..problems. Anyone can get traitors and proxies in countries to do things against their national interest when you have such largesse to throw around. It’s not rocket science.
The cowardly tactics of hiding behind a cats paw ..in this case, bloodied Ukraine..promising support while refusing to get involved yourself..is certainly being noticed by the rest of the world. The equivalent of winding some spindly kid up to fight a local tough but refusing to save him when the tough guy stomps his face in. The language of this is emotive and by now even the people living in the most remote places have seen how Maerica treats her friends.
Blowing up Nordstream to fuck the German economy. Allowing Ukrainians to be slaughtered. Bravo Maerica. We have also witnessed the destruction of the myth of superior NATO weapons. They burn like any other.. perhaps better..and along with this conflagration goes the legend of Maerican military supremacy. End of.
Maerica has belated realized she is caught with her dick in a steel bear trap. She is looking for an egress, but she will not find one that does not involve compromise or even capitulation. Watch for increasing desperation as the dipshits that pass for a strategic brain trust in Maerica realize the extent of their predicament.
It’s hilarious to read pseudointellectual babble about how Russia or Putin is to blame for not slapping Ukraine hard enough .. that the Maericans are emboldened. Who are you trying to kid? The Maerican jokers already bet the house..that is the Maerican international financial system…against Russia being weak. You have cause and effect reversed. It is Maerican delusions of grandeur which sleepwalk our world to a nuclear apocalypse, not Russian restraint. This is obvious to anyone who analyzes these events neutrally.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 10 2023 16:52 utc | 36
Posted by: JackG | Aug 10 2023 16:01 utc | 27
“The neocons descended from Trotsky.”
Uh, you DO know that Trotsky in effect created the red army and commanded it when it vanquished the white russians?
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 10 2023 16:53 utc | 37
Reposted… Important….
From Checkmate twitter post…..
Now they cant.
Pop. under Kiev is 15 to 20 millions.
15 million pensioners/minors/women.
So 3-4 million men of military age(20 to 55).
A million in uniform is pushing it. Someone has to man the economy/state. They bleed 500k per year(kia+Wia+fleeing abroad), so depletion is near
From the same post’s jpeg image……
1991 Census 52 Million, – 6 million due to births/deaths deficit
2014 Census 45 Million is fake, includes those who emigrated elsewhere
Losses during 2014-2015…..
Crimea 2 million
Donbas 4 million
Left to Russia 1 million
= ~ 8 million
Losses 2014-2021…..
Birth/Death deficit 2 million
emigration elsewhere 4 million
Losses 2021-2022
Birth/Death deficit 0.5 million
= – 6 million
Losses 2022 – present
Emigration to Russia 3 million
Emigration to EU 5 million
Emigration to ROW 1 million
Russian controlled areas 3 million
= 12 million
Ukrainian population estimate not excluding pre 2014 emigration is 19 million
Pre 2014 emigration is ~ 6 million
Population now under Kiev control likely 15 – 16 million
This less ~ 1 million combat losses, means that Ukraine has lost 7% of it’s population in combat losses, far more than Nazi Germany suffered when it collapsed.
This means that the end is near for Ukie resistance.
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 10 2023 12:55 utc | 373
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 10 2023 17:02 utc | 38
It is way past time to start shooting down NATO airborne command posts.
Posted by: anon | Aug 10 2023 17:02 utc | 39
@Perimetr | Aug 10 2023 15:08 utc | 11
It’s nit a “limited” operation; it’s a “special” one. Putin has stated more than once that he will use nukes if the conditions are met; that’s not “limited.”
Every military operation has real-world limits. Russia has continued the defensive stance for as long as it has been damaging Ukraine and Nato significantly more than it has been costing Russia. I believe that Uktaine must back of on offensive soon. That will be the moment for Russia to go on a major offensive. I suspect that that time is near.
As I’ve posted more than once, I suspect that Russia will start a big-arrow attack from the north through Kherson, moving south through Odessa. The current activity in Kupyansk might be related. The main movement might be to the west of defensive lines along the current front.
Gaining Odessa Oblast would landlock Ukraine and form a direct connection with Tranisnistria. That would greatly strengthen the Russian bargaining position. If Poland is going to try to take parts of Ukraine, that would draw them in. It would also force the rest of NATO to decide if they are willing to intervene. If NATO does get directly involved, many of Russia’s friendly countries might support Russis, if requested.
Many poisonous snakes appear to stop moving before they strike. They hope that their enemy will withdraw because the snake doesn’t want to waste its venom; it needs it to catch food. I don’t think that Russia’s strict discipline has been due to fear or apathy. I believe that Russia is playing the long game.
Posted by: barstool | Aug 10 2023 17:04 utc | 40
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 10 2023 16:52 utc | 35
As Dr. George W Oprisko@37 posted above, Ukraine is already over as a nation project. It’s just a question when it will be admitted in mainstream, but even if it’s not admitted, it doesn’t really matter.
Ukraine has 15 – 20 million people left. Those who left to EU have absolutely no interest in their homeland. They are only after better life quality, and to game the western social benefits. Ukrainians are passing each other information on potential EU operations to return them to Ukraine, and how to avoid it.
IIRC Podolyak also a week or two ago stated that in order for Ukraine to survive as a nation state, people need to be returned from abroad, and everyone needs to be banned from leaving. I don’t remember if he actually was talking about women, but yes, women would need to be returned to Ukraine. Well, fat chance of that ever happening, which means the nation is done as Podolyak alludes.
When talking about economy, the fact is that Ukraine doesn’t really need “economy”, since everything is subsidized and paid for by EU and USA. The German government recently raised their expenditure need estimate for Ukraine from €700 billion to €2000 billion (2 trillion).
The only role for people still inside Ukraine is to die fighting against Russia.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 10 2023 17:20 utc | 41
Posted by: barstool | Aug 10 2023 17:04 utc | 39 “I suspect that Russia will start a big-arrow attack from the north through Kherson, moving south through Odessa.”
I don’t think Russia has the forces available to do that – or they would have. Look how long it took them to take Bakhmut. And that got them what? Not much. But here at MOA many posted that Bakhmut was a linchpin and once taken Russian forces would roll forward.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 10 2023 17:20 utc | 42
Media: German government could announce delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine “soon”.
The German government could “soon” announce the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, reports the news portal T-Online. The Federal Chancellery is currently working on a solution with the USA.
So far, the German authorities have refused to provide Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles with a range of 500 kilometers. But the German Air Force is said to have given the “green light” for a possible delivery of German Taurus weapons. Last week, the Federal Chancellery asked the Federal Ministry of Defense for important information about Taurus, in particular about the stocks of the Bundeswehr, possible supply risks and their effectiveness.
The private news portal does not rule out the possibility of a double delivery of Taurus cruise missiles and US ATACMS short-range missiles with a range of 300 km.
Posted by: mo1 | Aug 10 2023 17:27 utc | 43
Media: German government could announce delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine “soon”.
And as ALWAYS …. it is reported that YOU are already in the Ukraine !!!
Posted by: mo1 | Aug 10 2023 17:29 utc | 44
Sorry do you mean Artyomovsk?
I’m not sure why I am poiting this out ..its unclear how it is not obvious.. Russia kept the meat grinder going with constant disinformation to invite the Ukrainians and their idiotic Western sponsors to commit strategic reserve after strategic reserve to Artyomovsk where they were systematically slaughtered. A rope a dope strategy. Seems to have worked.
I would avoid drawing too many conclusions about operational tempo and future actions from the battle of Artyomovsk, there Subutai.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 10 2023 17:30 utc | 45
“Polish leadership has its head so far up their ass they can see the night sky and the full moon”
Indeed. My family is from Poland, All of them (about 50 at least, with 1 or 2 exceptions) are stupidly Russophobic to the point of insanity. Mere mention of the words “Russia” or “Putin” causes their heads to explode.
But they live in the West, recent opinion polls within Poland show nobody supports war in Ukraine against Russia or Belarus, except the present Polish Government. One poll of 10,000 I saw had 0 supporting war against Russia, which is definite, if you ask me, or maybe a typo (lol) as it seems unlikely they could not find 1 Pole stupid enough to support war with Russia.
Poland is having elections soon, so I would put this talk of war with Russia as just political posturing, and is likely to lead to a greater election loss for the present Government. Nut I’m not in Poland, I can only rely on reports.
In practical terms, Poland cannot fight Russia, even with all of NATO supporting them. Reference the Polish Army study of about 3 years ago, which assumed a maximal Polish Army equipped with F-35s, hundreds of M1A1 Abrams, large well trained formations, lots of artillery and ammunition, with full NATO sup[port and months to prepare it – yet showed Russia defeating Poland in a week, and the Polish Army 85% destroyed. GIven that the present conditon of the Polish Army, despite their bravado, is very poor, I can’t see it happening. Poland has shipped so much hardwae, and a lot of sheep-dipped personnel (like Krab artillery crews) to Ukraine, and many more Polish Army veterans have left as they see only their own death in fighting Russia . Poland is simply incapable of walking the talk that comes out of their mouths.
Not that commmon sense or logic ever stopped a neo-con, but it seems lunlikely to me.
The proposed formation of a 5,000 man Brigade shows the game is up – 1 Brigade won’t do anything of substance on the battlefields, and would be quickly wiped out by Russia.
If I posted what I really think of Ukrainians, b would have to ban me. Let’s put it like this: Many members of our family were killed by Ukrainians serving in the Waffen SS for Hitler, and other associated neo–Nazi groups, so all I can say is – Slava Z, baby. I have an old family reunion photo from 1938 Warsaw, when the whole extended family gathered – there are 138 faces in the photo, my Father told me only 6 survived the war, about 2/3 killed by Germans/Ukrainians and associates, and 1/3 lost to starvation and fortunes of war, only a few killed near the end of WWII by Soviets – estimated, hard to tell what happened to many, they simply disappeared, never to be ehard from again. So I can blame Germans too, sorry b.
=============================
“Previous thread comment: “You should learn Russian before you comment on Russia.” paraphrased
Ok, sure, If I want to make a comment about China, I should learn Chinese? Haw about Niger, should I have to learn Hausa or whatever the native language used in most of Niger is? I’m bad with languages, just don’t pick them up easily, so I guess I should just stop talking about everything then. Right.
Not commenting out of ignorance about a subject, that never seems to stop most people from firing off their mouth, but on the whole, this Blog has better comments than most, for sure, being much closer to reality than most members of the public.
Posted by: FUBAR111111 | Aug 10 2023 17:32 utc | 46
The neocons relation to Trotsky is twofold. Many of the older generation of neocons had a background in the Fourth International movement, which was created by Trotsky in 1938, where they picked up the idea of the permanent revolution and that communism can’t survive in a hostile non-communist environment, as Stalins policy suggested. If you replace the word communism in the above with capitalism then you have their basic world view and policy.
Posted by: On the roof | Aug 10 2023 17:32 utc | 47
If the Russian economy is ‘thriving’ since the war started as some commentators would have us believe, how is it that the Ruble is at 16 month low and still tanking:
https://www.rt.com/business/581089-ruble-among-worst-performing-currencies/
According to latest World Bank data, Russia currently ranks as the world’s 5th largest economy based on GDP PPP, ahead of every NATO country except for the USA and only barely behind Japan. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?view=map
A year and half ago ago it was no longer even ranked in the top ten
Posted by: nwwoods | Aug 10 2023 17:34 utc | 48
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 15:33 utc | 20
Try “Control+F”
Posted by: nwwoods | Aug 10 2023 17:37 utc | 49
I don’t think Russia has the forces available to do that – or they would have. Look how long it took them to take Bakhmut. And that got them what? Not much. But here at MOA many posted that Bakhmut was a linchpin and once taken Russian forces would roll forward.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 10 2023 17:20 utc | 41
Russian strategy has been discussed to death….
Yet we have anonymous trolls claiming inside knowledge of Russian intent and capabilities…
Ritter, MacGregor, Martynov, etal have repeatedly shown that Russia is conserving it’s forces for a probable head to head war with the entirety of NATO, while it builds it’s materiel resources.
Additionally, Russia is engaged in a global effort to limit NATO adherents, especially in Africa..
This is finally paying off, as I posted earlier…. The Ukies are running out of ammo, fuel, food, junior officers, and NCOs. The Ukies are scraping the bottom of the barrel for cannon fodder..
This is now evident in the Current Russian advances in the Oskol River area…
AND…
In failure the past 10 days by the Ukies to advance…
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 10 2023 17:38 utc | 50
Gepostet von: nwwoods | 10. August 2023 17:34 UTC | 47
.
Your question only shows one thing…..that you have no idea about finance, at least not about global…
WHAT
Should a strong ruble help Rutin……that no one can afford oil anymore?
Then buy in dollars right away ???
Posted by: mo1 | Aug 10 2023 17:45 utc | 51
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 14:03 utc | 8
Fact only thread. Well here is a suggestion we can implement ourselves. If we make a post that is simply factual we could mark it “factual post” and a quick page search would allow people to easily find them among the commentary.
Posted by: Tim | Aug 10 2023 17:50 utc | 52
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 10 2023 17:38 utc | 49
You have inside inside knowledge of Russian intent and capabilities? Ritter, MacGregor, Martynov, etal do? The track record of these people is pretty poor. Russia has been ‘mopping’ up Ukraine since day 3 according to Ritter.
“conserving it’s forces for a probable head to head war with the entirety of NATO” What proof of that is there that they are conserving ground forces? If you mean otherwise, as n Navy, Airforce, etc. I agree.
“The Ukies are running out of ammo,” Nobody is running out of ammunition. At certain times someone may run low of one particular type or another. Ukraine now has access to the US 155mm cluster rounds. Turkish ones too. That will carry them for a few months.
What adherents does NATO have in Africa? If you are taking about Niger, I would not consider that a NATO adherent. BUt understand if you do.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 10 2023 17:53 utc | 53
Military Summary report said Syrsky is commanding the defense of Kupyansk area. He decided to not defend Synkivka and consequentially RU has captured it. Also AFU has randomly refused to follow orders to defend certain locations around this area, which every time have fell into RU hands. AFU has lot of stuff deployed around Kupyansk but RU has even more stuff and they are squeezing Kupyansk from the NE and E.
AFU made significant suppression of RU tank and artillery in the area of Andrevka (South of Artemovsk) and launched a large attack, but according to Dima it was totally defeated as a result of RU counter-attacks from the north, south and east.
Kleschevka is still unchanged, and RU cleared AFU from front of Berkhivka. RU focus their attacks south from Maryinka (Novomikalohvka) and north of Maryinka (Krasnogorovka) in semi-encirclement assumption. AFU tries to cling on to Maryinka.
AFU attacked Urozhaine both from the northern direction, and from the west (in south of Urozhaine). The southern attack was ambushed and defeated by RU reserves from the south.
AFU has wedged itself between Robotyne and Verbove and the flank is subject to RU counter-attacks from Robotyne and Verbove.
AFU attempted to cross the Dnepr in Kozachi Laheri, but it’s not clear what’s going on. AFU used arty to attack RU positions on that side and apparently attempted to use boats and landing craft to ship stuff across.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 10 2023 18:01 utc | 54
Polish President Duda: No successful counter-offensive by Ukraine in sight
Today 08/10/23
Polish President Andrzej Duda believes that Ukraine’s weapon stocks do not allow it to conduct a successful offensive and gain an advantage on the battlefield. In an interview with The Washington Post newspaper, he said, among other things:
“The question is: Does Ukraine have enough weapons to change the balance of power in the war and gain the upper hand? And the answer is probably: no. They probably don’t have enough weapons. And we know that because they are not currently in capable of launching a successful counteroffensive against the Russian military. In short, they need more support.”
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, since June 4, the Ukrainian army has been making unsuccessful offensive attempts. In two months, the Ukrainian army lost more than 43,000 soldiers and around 5,000 pieces of various weapons, including 26 aircraft and 25 Leopard main battle tanks. Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that Ukrainian troops had not been successful in any sector of the front.
Posted by: mo1 | Aug 10 2023 18:04 utc | 55
Here is something I also suggest to those saying this or that thing about who needs to do this or that tactic to “win”. Your thought process is not unique to you.
Right before the counter offensive began, I recall a shower thought, “What if the Russians placed remote detonation explosives in the forward trenches on the first defensive line?” This is obvious: Artillery is one thing, but artillery is never a guarantee to get the job done in trench warfare. I remembered at least that much from my studies of WW1 and WW2. Perhaps these tactics were deployed elsewhere in history, maybe even one of those wars, but I had no recollection on hand of it.
A day or so after, reports came out that these trenches were readily abandoned by Russian troops. Many, including some here, claimed that a sign of weakness. The footage of Ukrainians storming abandoned trenches followed by large explosions killing anywhere from 15 to 30 men at a time floored me. It was obvious to me, why not the Ukrainians? That was when I learned to shut the fuck up about this or that tactic, strategy, blah blah blah.
Posted by: shadowloser | Aug 10 2023 18:05 utc | 56
@Ed4 | Aug 10 2023 17:20 utc | 41
I stated all along that Bakhamut wasn’t stretegicaly important to Russia. It’s inherent value was the roads and railroads in the area, which Russia had either taken or had under fire control before Zelenski announced that it was so important and that he would send wave after wave to hold it. That made it important to Russia because Russia wanted to destroy those forces being sent there.
Russia could have closed the western side at any time, forming a cauldron, allowing them to destroy the Ukrainian forces inside, and hold the city. They didn’t. Russia held the door open as long as Ukraine was sending more forces. They played Whack-a-Mole there.
What did Russia do with the Bakhamut once they had it? They withdrew most of their forces.
The discussion about the importance of Bakhamut began here in the bar a couple of days before Zelenski announced that Ukraine would hold it at all cost. We were discussing Ukraine’s four defensive lines. Russia had already blown past the first, and the third and fourth were incomplete. Bakhamut was a central crossroads on the second line, allowing Ukraine to supply forces to the East. Our discussion concluded that stopping that function at Bakhamut would seriously cripple Ukraine’s defenses.
Russia decided that instead of taking the city, they would take the easier target, the roads and railroads. That city was filled with Russians. Russia didn’t want to have to take it, but Ukraine left them no choice.
Posted by: barstool | Aug 10 2023 18:07 utc | 57
The Russians stage a mini mini me non-offensive in Kupyansk and the Ukrainian army seems already to be crumbling. Ammo scarcity, lack of soldiers, troops surrendering.
One might be excused for thinking that the Ukrainians are much nearer to collapse than it looks.
Posted by: Alexander P | Aug 10 2023 18:08 utc | 58
Posted by: Alexander P | Aug 10 2023 18:08 utc | 57
#########
Mass Ukrainian surrenders really would be a great way for the SMO to evolve.
The only thing better than a surrender is a defection.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 10 2023 18:19 utc | 59
“The neocons descended from Trotsky.”
Uh, you DO know that Trotsky in effect created the red army and commanded it when it vanquished the white russians?
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 10 2023 16:53 utc | 36
Here’s the connection:
From Memoirs of a Trotskyist by Irving Kristol
I was graduated from City College in the spring of 194O, and the honor I most prized was the fact that I was a member in good standing of the Young People’s Socialist League (Fourth International). This organization was commonly; and correctly, designated as Trotskyist…
Irving Kristol is also considered the father (or one of the fathers) of neoconservatism.
Posted by: Phil R | Aug 10 2023 18:24 utc | 60
Posted by: Perimetr | Aug 10 2023 15:08 utc | 11
“Perhaps Putin would do well to take a cue from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar:
There is a tide in the affairs of men…”
This reckless advice of Brutus to Cassius on the eve of the Battle of Philippi
resulted in the death of both and the loss of the battle!
Octavian’s famous “Festina Lente” won the day and will also win the day for Pres. Putin.
Posted by: Trebitsch | Aug 10 2023 18:26 utc | 61
@Perimetr | Aug 10 2023 15:08 utc | 11
Oh dear, now MOA people have heard about PCR (Paul Craig Roberts), oh dear, now shadowbanned is going is going to go into ecstasy because he has a fellow believer in all out war, oh dear, oh dear. Time for some damage control.
In the book Shogun there are 2 protagonists, the greys and the browns, different groups of samurai. The greys are in the ascendancy, and are doing everything in their power to start a war with the browns. The browns meanwhile, know that they are weaker, and do everything in their power to avoid all out war. They bow and scrape, call the greys their partners, are meticulously polite and well mannered at all times. But all the while the browns are just biding their time until circumstances are in their favour. By circumstances in their favour is meant allies, the greys have allies which the browns need. The browns therefore behave in an impeccably correct manner at all times, knowing the allies of the greys will notice and will have no choice but to move over to the browns as honour demands. The brown samurai on the other hand, are tired of the constant humiliations and just want to go into glorious battle (Wagner), to win or loose on their feet fighting as samurai should.
But the brown leadership don’t want all out war, border conflicts are acceptable, people and troops die all the time anyway. Those can be brushed off as minor misunderstandings (SloMO). Meanwhile, as allies are so finicky, vassals are preferred. A vassal is someone who can be ordered to die in defence of the realm, even easier than subjects. So the battle for allies and the vassalization of allies continues, with smiles and trade agreements, social gatherings, etc, etc. Isolation of the browns is not allowed, the browns must hobnob with all and sundry at all times with the biggest of smiles on their faces. Eventually the greys have no choice but to attack as the tide turns against them, when all along the greys were trying to provoke the browns into attacking. That marks the greys out as the aggressors and the browns and their new allies wipe the greys out of existence.
This whole ethos of course assumes certain scenarios. Firstly, that the purpose of life is war, war is politics by other means, the history of humanity is the history of war. So when one side has the advantage, that side is supposed to use its advantage against its enemies. Fair enough, this is what shadowbanned and PCR believe, and this has been true for most of human existence. But right now, Russian has both conventional and nuclear dominance, and doesn’t need either allies or vassals, yet Russia is not using its advantage to wipe out its enemies. Russia is instead carrying on as if Russia is at a disadvantage and is playing for time. WTF!!!! Putin is going against the grain of human history, Putin is trying to avoid all out war and so save his people needless suffering. Russia is its people (others have mentioned recently that a nation is its people), Putin wants to save the Russian people.
In Russia someone in the past once said that if Russian can have a hundred years of peace, then Russia will become a great country. But Russia has had war and revolution in 1917, and then massively destructive war in 1945, and now upheaval in the 1990’s as well, so Russia needs peace until as least 2100. With every day of continued peace, Russia just grows stronger, while the West just grows weaker, what is there not to like about peace. So Putin is trying something very different in human history, if he succeeds he will become St Putin of St Petersburg. If Putin doesn’t succeed then there will be a world war, and Russia is definitely prepared for this world war, unlike with WW1 and WW2, so with either strategy Russia wins anyway, just with the one route less death of Russian citizens is involved.
Posted by: gT | Aug 10 2023 18:36 utc | 62
I suspect the plan was to wear down the Russians militarily, politically an economically to the point that they would collapse.
So they hoped to provoke Russia, forcing a response that would over-extend them – on the field and economically.
But those waskely wuskies were too wiley. They almost took the bait, but then calmer heads prevailed.
It seems that really threw a wrench in the works.
Now Russia is all “shields up” while Ukies are beating fists against granite.
I suspect content to let the dumpster fire burn – seems maybe they will be fighting each other over what’s left.
Still pretty cool what they are doing – Ukraine amassing in the south, Russia attacking them where they are not (in the North).
Posted by: jared | Aug 10 2023 18:41 utc | 63
mo1@54
Duda is campaigning for re-election. He is claiming, in essence, that the only weakness in the war strategy that he has been promoting in the past two years is that NATO has been slow to arm Ukraine. Or give it enough money to arm itself.
We know that this is untrue- Ukraine has had large amounts of weaponry delivered to it, and enormous sums of money. What is wrong with Ukraine’s strategy is that it cannot count on popular support. The war began with the alienation of a third of the population and Ukrainian government tactics have been to terrorise rather than to seek the support of anyone to the left of Himmler, or Bandera.
Governments founded on terrorism never last long. And they collapse as soon as the terrorised population senses their defeat.
There are those who, no doubt sincerely, preface their analyses of the course of the war by telling us that the Ukrainians are courageous and dogged fighters. I doubt it- the Kiev Gestapo ensures that troops stay in line, killing deserters and, by their appalling treatment of Russian prisoners, attempting to make sure that troops equate surrender with slow death and torture.
Sadly, the influence and presence of NATO troops- schooled in the American way of war and the traditions of european imperialism- is unlikely to mitigate the Kiev inspired Nazism.
To get back to the Poles: they are putting pressure on the US to escalate the war. These followers of Pilsudski only know war and repression. And, for the electorate I suspect that there is very little choice in terms of alternatives: Pilsudki’s ghost or Anne Applebaum’s neo-con husband anf his cronies.
Posted by: bevin | Aug 10 2023 18:46 utc | 64
“Here’s the connection:
From Memoirs of a Trotskyist by Irving Kristol
I was graduated from City College in the spring of 194O, and the honor I most prized was the fact that I was a member in good standing of the Young People’s Socialist League (Fourth International). This organization was commonly; and correctly, designated as Trotskyist…
Irving Kristol is also considered the father (or one of the fathers) of neoconservatism.
Posted by: Phil R | Aug 10 2023 18:24 utc | 59”
And just what connection is there? Sorry for the OT, but the tiresome, tiresome, tiresome ongoing linkage of Trotsky with imperialism is a just a pseudoanalytical doodle of some on both the right and the left. The right, e.g. the libertarians at antiwar.com, used to frequently bring it up re neocons — iirc Wolfowitz was one — serving the purpose of hiding any drivers in the capitalist system for imperialism, as though a project of destabilizing expansion was not something Mellon or JP Morgan would have been on board with. It’s as though they are not aware of the forms of political decay that developed out of disillusionment, especially with the Stalinist travesty — you know, “the god that failed” etc etc. — that went well beyond Trotsky’s adherents. It’s political economy by innuendo and thematic resonance. On the left, it’s just potshotting, LaRouchian slurmongering.
If you want to get serious, you can argue with Trotsky’s position that socialism could not be built in one country and how that disrespect for the right of capitalists of any given country to dominate their working classes becomes detached from a *socialist* project and can *look like* a rationale for capitalist imperialism. But that requires you to lose track of what capitalist imperialism is about.
Posted by: dadooronron | Aug 10 2023 18:55 utc | 65
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 10 2023 15:15 utc | 13
Yes, the Marxist analysis will always be necessary and perhaps even morally important. ‘Facts’ have no meaning in and of themselves; they must be given meaning via interpretation. This entails embedding them in narrative architectures (Hayden White) and the resultant story converts facts into a plot, with causes, consequences, origins, etc. The great bourgeois lie of the last 150 years is that mere ‘presentation of the facts’ offers neutral and objective clarity. But ‘neutrality’ and ‘objectivity’ are formal aspects of narrative style which precede the facts. As soon as one stakes a claim on the basis of a fact one begins the political effort to ground one’s view in reality. Marx (along with others suspicious of claims to universality, like Nietzsche and Freud) shows us there can only be a ‘ruthless critique of everything’, that is, a relentless analysis of the entanglement of facts with their interpretation, which ultimately will always conceal a tendentious attempt of one set of interests to capture the world at the expense of everyone.
Posted by: Patroklos | Aug 10 2023 18:56 utc | 66
Posted by: Phil R | Aug 10 2023 18:24 utc | 59
Thanks for the quote, hadn’t seen that before, though I had read about neocons having Troskyite ‘connections’.
But Trotsky was also a bolshevik. And neocons sure as hell are not creating a red army.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 10 2023 19:04 utc | 67
“conserving it’s forces for a probable head to head war with the entirety of NATO” What proof of that is there that they are conserving ground forces? If you mean otherwise, as n Navy, Airforce, etc. I agree.
“The Ukies are running out of ammo,” Nobody is running out of ammunition. At certain times someone may run low of one particular type or another. Ukraine now has access to the US 155mm cluster rounds. Turkish ones too. That will carry them for a few months.
What adherents does NATO have in Africa? If you are taking about Niger, I would not consider that a NATO adherent. BUt understand if you do.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 10 2023 17:53 utc | 52
The Ukies are firing 8,000 rds/day….. USA gave them…100,000?? Lasts only a week… used to terrorize DonBas residents of Donetsk…. not on the battlefield… ditto with storm shadow missiles…
Ukies lose one or more ammo dumps daily… Ukie POWs say they were short on everything… except Russian shells bombarding them…
You are another anonymous MI6/CIA/NSA/NATO troll….
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 10 2023 19:10 utc | 68
To get back to the Poles: they are putting pressure on the US to escalate the war.
Posted by: bevin | Aug 10 2023 18:46 utc | 64
I don’t think they’re independent or able to pressure anyone, they’re clowns. US makes the those politicians say it to prepare their population, the next cannon fodder. It was the same script in Ukr. We’ll have to see if Russia will follow the 2022 strategy of doing nothing and let nato get 70% of former Ukr and a new Black Sea port, or not. I’m also curious to see if Russia will watch Niger be leveled, for the moment it looks like they will be spectators
Posted by: rk | Aug 10 2023 19:11 utc | 69
Posted by: HERMIUS | Aug 10 2023 16:16 utc | 29
Would not be surprised, ironic if the Western plan to fix Putin militarily and destroy him internally was used against Zelensky.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 10 2023 19:11 utc | 70
Posted by: Phil R | Aug 10 2023 18:24 utc | 59
Thanks for the quote, hadn’t seen that before, though I had read about neocons having Troskyite ‘connections’.
But Trotsky was also a bolshevik. And neocons sure as hell are not creating a red army.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 10 2023 19:04 utc | 67
I’m certainly no Trotsky, Bolshevist or neocon scholar (or any kind of scholar,really), just remembered reading something onetime about Irving Kristol. you are correct that Trotsky was a bolshevik, but if I’m not completely off base they sort of parted ways with Stalin. I’ll leave that as an open thought for those smarter than me to comment on.
Posted by: Phil R | Aug 10 2023 19:11 utc | 71
@Dr. George W Oprisko | 37
Great analysis on demographic problem Ukraine is facing. I’ve tried those exercises myself, but with much less insight than was included in yours.
I’ve advocated your conclusions for a good while now: Ukraine has aleady passed their peak manpower potential and are rapidly sliding down the curve.
What a monstrous waste. Settlement and peace with Russia should have been a no brainer but everyone in the west is stuck in old thinking.
Posted by: danf51 | Aug 10 2023 19:12 utc | 72
Mass Ukrainian surrenders really would be a great way for the SMO to evolve.
The only thing better than a surrender is a defection.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 10 2023 18:19 utc | 58
Both happening now….
2 Ukie soldiers swam the Deniepr to the Russian side to surrender…
Ukie units refusing to go to the front… now…..
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 10 2023 19:16 utc | 73
Vladimir Solovyov was crying about the weakening of ruble – Considering this person studied economy, he should know what’s going on.
The thing is, that’s just starting.
I couldn’t get why Vladimir Putin and his clique believed Russia could win a proxy war against the western bloc, while Russia was poorer than Slovakia, not even as developed as Kazakhstan and as economic relevant as Germany in 2021.
Russian elites turned an industrialized country with high-educated population into a ‘raw material appendage’.
Posted by: Tragedy of Russia | Aug 10 2023 19:17 utc | 74
Phil R @ 59 / Membrum Virile @ 36
“The neocons descended from Trotsky.” Irving Kristol is also considered the father (or one of the fathers) of neoconservatism.
… and, Michael Hudson was also a Trotskyite red diper baby… the conclusion therefore is…?
That Trotsky guy sure got around.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 10 2023 19:17 utc | 75
So Putin is trying something very different in human history, if he succeeds he will become St Putin of St Petersburg. If Putin doesn’t succeed then there will be a world war, and Russia is definitely prepared for this world war, unlike with WW1 and WW2, so with either strategy Russia wins anyway, just with the one route less death of Russian citizens is involved.
Posted by: gT | Aug 10 2023 18:36 utc | 61
I cannot thank you enough for this analysis!!
EXCELLENT!!
I hope Putin is remembered in Russian history as “Putin The Wise”
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 10 2023 19:23 utc | 76
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 10 2023 19:23 utc | 76
I guess that is kind of the gift that you get if you follow Strategy and Faith — there are not many people in this world who really believe in their own way most believe in the might of money
Posted by: Macpott | Aug 10 2023 19:25 utc | 77
The differences between trotzkyism and stalinism are virtually non existent.
I am sure if you search for differences you will find something but in reality they hated each other for being ideological twins fighting for the same position.
I am sorry but the “if only trotzky had won instead of stalin…” is utter bs. It would have gone exactly the same way. Its just the coping mechanism of leftists trying to save the communist idea.
Posted by: Orgel | Aug 10 2023 19:27 utc | 78
Perimeter 11
Shakespeare was standing at what was the foothills of British imperialism, imagining for Caesar the glory, but holding on to his personal disgust at the disastrous, destructive , decadent folly that empire would turn out to be.
Putin doesn’t and never did want to be the expansionist monster Biden projected him.to be. He wants Russia and RoW to be left in peace from bonkers USUKIS hegemony/ empire2.
Not much good quoting tongue in cheek Bard satire of jingoistic pomposity for what you want Putin to do.
Posted by: Giyane | Aug 10 2023 19:29 utc | 79
Posted by: Phil R | Aug 10 2023 19:11 utc | 71
Yeah, sorry about that, I should have tagged @JackG, those 2 points were aimed at his absurd theory.
And yes, Stalin and Trotsky competed for the same prize and Trotsky lost.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 10 2023 19:31 utc | 80
Just patience. US is over and in collapse. People soon will live paycheck to paycheck for food.
Posted by: Innuendo | Aug 10 2023 19:33 utc | 81
Perimeter 12
… unless you want to describe the arrogance of Biden and his orcs in the image of Caesar’s .
Posted by: Giyane | Aug 10 2023 19:33 utc | 82
Posted by: gT | Aug 10 2023 18:36 utc | 61
“With every day of continued peace, Russia just grows stronger”
Well, it hasn’t known many years of peace during Putin’s reign. You see, it has been Putin’s fate to conquer new areas for russia. Conquering for peace. Kind of like fucking for virginity 😉
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 10 2023 19:38 utc | 83
Posted by: nwwoods | Aug 10 2023 17:37 utc | 48
Try “Control+F”
—-
That assumes I know what I’m trying to find, doesn’t it? In the situation I’m describing, its clear I don’t know.
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 19:41 utc | 84
Posted by: Patroklos | Aug 10 2023 18:56 utc | 66
Yes, the Marxist analysis will always be necessary and perhaps even morally important. ‘Facts’ have no meaning in and of themselves; they must be given meaning via interpretation.
Yeah, yeah. We all get hermenuetics, which, BTW, is easily twisted into PoMo nihilism. Dragging out the whole philosophical apparatus over a pointer to the first story in a thread is complete overkill.
As the great philosopher Groucho once said: Sometimes a Cigar is just a Cigar.
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 19:46 utc | 85
“With every day of continued peace, Russia just grows stronger”
Well, it hasn’t known many years of peace during Putin’s reign. You see, it has been Putin’s fate to conquer new areas for russia. Conquering for peace. Kind of like fucking for virginity 😉
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 10 2023 19:38 utc | 83
##########
Imagine thinking that Ukraine and Crimea are “new areas” vis a vis Russia.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 10 2023 19:54 utc | 86
@JackG | Aug 10 2023 16:01 utc | 27,
@Membrum Virile | Aug 10 2023 16:53 utc | 36
@LightYearsFromHome | Aug 10 2023 19:17 utc | 75
[Concerning Trotsky’s red army having defeated the white armies]
The white armies where not supported by the allies even though it is the official narrative
See Nikolai Starikovs book The liquidation of Russia, Who helped the reds win the civil war
[Concerning neocons originating from Trotsky]
…
And neocons originated from James Burnham who also was/became a fascist.
See Cynthia Chungs article about that topic
The Life of James Burnham: From Trotskyism to Italian Fascism to the Father of Neo-Conservatism
Posted by: petergrfstrm | Aug 10 2023 19:56 utc | 87
From the link posted by eighthman at 33:
“As President of America, I am willing to sacrifice as many Ukrainian lives as it takes,” said Biden. “We will keep using Ukraine to fight a proxy war until an entire generation is dead and all of my money is laundered. You have my word!”
As the war rages on, Biden reiterated his support for Ukrainians fighting hard while he sits back and watches. “The United States is proud to hide behind the Ukrainian people as a nation full of human shields,” he said. “Even if it leads to Putin using nuclear weapons on the people of Ukraine, we are willing to take that risk. End of speech. Walk away from podium.”
Posted by: wagelaborer | Aug 10 2023 20:02 utc | 88
As the great philosopher Groucho once said: Sometimes a Cigar is just a Cigar.
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 19:46 utc | 85
I thought that was Freud. But then I’m not a great philospher.
Posted by: Phil R | Aug 10 2023 20:04 utc | 89
@brewster
I never yet encountered an interesting fact that wasn’t bound up somewhere or other in an opinion. Just sayin’…
https://sonar21.com/united-states-plan-b/
This article was hosted but not written by larry johnson.
Pretty good. About how the US’s Plan A is for the birds and speculating about what a good Plan B might have been (now too late) or still could be.
Plan B
There is little evidence that the US had a Plan B. There should have been a sophisticated analysis of potential blow-backs, side-effects, boomerangs, and possible outright failures of Plan A. Something similar to an Environmental Impact Statement should have been prepared. A “Conflict Impact Statement” would have analyzed alternatives to the proposed action, as well as the potential side-effects of each alternative. It is unclear whether anything like this was produced. However, it is unlikely that many American politicians, steeped in exceptionalism and hubris, would have considered a backup plan necessary or desirable.
Nevertheless, as the looming failure of Plan A in Ukraine becomes more visible, some tentative alternative arrangements are surfacing. One such proposal is to give Ukraine some sort of security guarantee similar to the implicit one provided by the US to Israel. This idea is short on details and it is difficult to see how it would apply or be implemented. No NATO country shares a border with Israel, Russia does not share a border either, and Israel is reported to have a good stock of nuclear weapons. Another proposal is to have a cease-fire at the current line of contact, and set up a division of Ukraine as was done in Korea. Again, it is difficult to see this working in practice, for Russia would still have a NATO proxy on its border and still have neo-Nazis and a Ukrainian army next door. It would be doubtful if Russia would agree to something so far removed from its proposed European Security Architecture. A third possibility mentioned is for Polish and Baltic State troops to actually enter the battle in Ukraine to offset the loss of Ukrainian troops. Poland would essentially occupy the western part of Ukraine and the war would end in a stalemate. Russia has already told the Poles to not even think about it. A fourth proposal is simply to continue the “narrative” that Ukraine is winning the war and at the same time to negotiate secretly with Russia to end the fighting. This is a version of “declare victory and go home.” Obviously, this would be very difficult to carry out.
In any event, these are limited proposals and do not deal with the overarching US vs. Russia contest.
And of course there is much more in the article…
Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 10 2023 16:45 utc | 33
https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-vows-to-sacrifice-as-many-ukrainian-lives-as-it-takes-to-defeat-russia?utm_source=The%20Babylon%20Bee%20Newsletter&utm_medium=email
A satire joke headline…………or is it?
===============================================
BB is the only source of truth in mainstream US journalism at this point.
Membrum virile @83
Putin doesn’t conquer. Since his rise to power he has extinguished an endless series of destabilizing plots hatched in border regions of the Russian federation, south ossetia, chechnya, Ukraine, even Syria could be argued to have been used as an islamist launchpad into the Eurasian heartland. I don’t see this as conquering. In fact if Minsk had been adhered to there would be no SMO. If Yanukovich hadn’t been unconstitutionally ousted, there would be no Donbass war and no need for Minsk. (I know details details) But for the progenitors of those traps, Putin has left them with scant little to call a victory, and usually the only course left is to revise history and mischaracterise Putin and Russia.
Posted by: Jacq | Aug 10 2023 20:24 utc | 92
Lemming @ 5
Are they actually planning a retreat of Kupyansk because they know they can’t hold it?
They are planning their usual scorched earth of eastern Ukraine, if NATO’s Kiev henchman can’t have it they’ll leave a wasteland like the surface of the moon for the Russians to have.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 10 2023 20:27 utc | 93
Posted by: Orgel | Aug 10 2023 19:27 utc | 78
What’s so wrong with Stalinism? they transformed a dying country with frequent starvation periods into one of the biggest industrial powers on Earth, the mostly illiterate population gave birth to leading scientists and engineers, they supported most freedom fighters around the world from the colonizers, and contrary to Trostky were not pushing communism to their military and commercial partners like the USA are pushing “democracy”.
Stalin is mostly reviled for being “paranoiac” and having jailed a lot of political prisoners. When you know the CIA planned 400+ assassination attacks against Fidel Castro, can you blame him?
Posted by: Lemming | Aug 10 2023 20:27 utc | 94
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 10 2023 20:27 utc | 93
I would assume scorched earth tactics would involve keeping the civilians trapped inside the city so they can then claim Russia is “doing a massacre”.
It seems to me evacuating civilians could be instead because they’re having real manpower problems and want to keep the option of having Malorussian peons they can conscript to go and kill their neighbors.
Posted by: Lemming | Aug 10 2023 20:33 utc | 95
Scorpion @ 90
There is never a Plan B for the USA, hegemon’s prerogative. If there were Plan B’s going back, say, at least from 1945 the word “blowback” would never have been coined. You could apply the same lack of Plan B throughout the period of the British empire, success or failure left unbounded misery, poverty, and death behind, at home and abroad. Reckon the lack of plan B was a British inheritance to America.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 10 2023 20:37 utc | 96
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 10 2023 19:10 utc | 68 “USA gave them…100,000??”
Where did you see 100,000? I didn’t see a number, but I have seen inventory numbers in various articles that quote numbers in the millions. For example: “The United States has nearly three million of these rounds in its inventory – much of it located on U.S. and allied bases in Europe.” from here: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/ukraine/ua-dpicm.htm The article appears to be from July 2023.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 10 2023 20:41 utc | 97
Trotsky and Trotskyist politics have nothing in common with neoconservativism. Trotsky ‘s theory of permanent revolution, misunderstand by many, basically says that the French Revolution was the last time the bourgeois was able to play a progressive role. In later developing societies- originally Russia but generalized to the Global South, because of the internationalization of of capital the bourgeois wouldn’t be able to play it’s historic role and at most would be a comprador elite. It would then be up to the working class to carry out the tasks of the bourgeois revolution.
The Shachtmanites, Max S and his friends,and the broader “New York Intellectuals” took Trotsky’s critique of the bureaucratic degeneration of the Soviet Union and his anti Stalinism to anti communist extremes ( Trotsky critically supported the Soviet Union and supported it in tbe Winter War with Finland). This layer came to side with US imperialism and capitalism against what they saw as “bureaucratic collectivism” influenced by James Burnham and others. A generation or two later this layer or its intellectual descendants emerged as the “State Dept Socialists”around Jeanne Kirkpatrick in the Reagan administration. While superficially coming out of the Trotskyist movement, it served dramatically oppossing class forces and ends.As I understand the current generation of neocons are ” Straussarians, followers of Leo Strauss,albeit several generations removed.
Posted by: Kate the Skate | Aug 10 2023 20:43 utc | 98
Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 10 2023 20:18 utc | 90
@brewster
I never yet encountered an interesting fact that wasn’t bound up somewhere or other in an opinion. Just sayin’…
Posted by: john brewster | Aug 10 2023 20:45 utc | 99
The idea that Putin represents the Whites in the Russian Civil War while the Zelensky regime / the neocons repressent the Reds because of some very distant connection to a few former Trotskyists is silly ,although ideologically perhaps one could make a connection between Putin and a figure such as Deniken
Posted by: Kate the Skate | Aug 10 2023 20:49 utc | 100