To listen to Marcus Reissner’s latest assessment of the NATO-Russia war, one would think NATO would be at the gates of Moscow by now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSrdnGwtM-4
Dramatically upbeat when compared to his last mournful announcement of “Bakhmut has fallen”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvJgRrpkaaU

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 8 2023 14:02 utc | 4

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 8 2023 14:15 utc | 5
It’s probable that you’re correct, and “experts on TV” wouldn’t be “experts on TV” unless they repeat the globohomo mantra, which is fiction.
One thing that’s strange is why these “experts” don’t present a disclaimer before they say, why don’t they say before presenting on the news that the following lie has been required to be read out aloud or I will lose my job, after which they start presenting the story they were fed.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 8 2023 14:27 utc | 6

One thing that’s strange is why these “experts” don’t present a disclaimer before they say, why don’t they say before presenting on the news that the following lie has been required to be read out aloud or I will lose my job, after which they start presenting the story they were fed.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 8 2023 14:27 utc | 6

One Finnish globohomo talking head expert, Pekka Toveri, apparently has quit or been fired. He was becoming a public laughing stock and liability so maybe he was just given boot.

Posted by: Catilina | Aug 8 2023 14:43 utc | 8

Arch Bungle:
It’s an old video as the picture in the background shows it’s from Day 324 Update. I think we are at Day 530 today.
I think it is an OK analysis for that point in time

Posted by: Poul | Aug 8 2023 14:46 utc | 10

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 8 2023 13:24 utc | 416
„Then there is America’s track record in fighting foreign proxy wars. After several years, they tend to lose interest, and pull out. History suggests the same outcome for the project Ukraine, unless some serious escalatory actions happen.“
i doubt they will lose interest & pull out
in ukraine theater we ve the bandera kids educated abroud and
now occupying key positions in politics, economics, culture,….
Nuland, Freeland, Vidman,……so many….
they re the driving force behind the rusophobia and war against russia
they re using their powerful positions to destroy russia
Same what the ustasa kids ve done against serbia

Posted by: tesla | Aug 8 2023 15:01 utc | 12

listening to Mercouris, who is quoting the WSJ, it becomes ever clearer, that there won´t be any peace.
beginning at min. 10:
https://theduran.com/zelensky-prepares-general-mobilisation-as-counteroffensive-fails-only-8-ukr-pilots-can-train-f16s-brics-global-south-reject-west-ukr-peace-plan-in-jeddah/
As I stated last week this war will go on. At least until the DEMS will know what would be best bet for the election. So roughly a year from now.
If Kiev is consistent in its disregard of its own people they will do full mobilisation.
And if so the most pressing question would be the cracking point for the Ukrainian population.
Remember there were cracking points during WWI in France in 1917, when too many just died like flies, and in Germany a year later which ended the war.
However this is yet no European war. So it could happen that the Europeans will deliver a new package of arms in winter to equip the AFU conscripts, in addition to Polish troops in Western Ukraine without any NATO mandate (which would be made clear to the Russians.)
May be I am totally wrong.
But the madness so far would make no sense if they´d stop all of a sudden.
And if Nuland has one last chance to prove her point it would be now or never.

Posted by: AG | Aug 8 2023 15:12 utc | 14

It is likely that a sudden collapse of the Kiev regime will happen, the question is when and how. I think it could be any time starting today. Zelenskys talk about total mobilization signals desperation and could (should) maybe trigger an “event” to get rid of him.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 8 2023 15:16 utc | 16

Will we see the christening of “Abrams Square” down the road from Bradley Square some time in the coming weeks?

“They are done,” Bush told reporters in a briefing. “Now they have to get to Europe, and then to Ukraine, along with all of the things that go with them. Ammunition, spare parts, fuel equipment, repair facilities. So you know, it’s not just the tanks, it’s the full package that goes with it. That’s still on track.”

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-07-23/h_8dcd18396eab104ce1b3c20942ff7c7c
Time to find out how those manual loaders with captagon lubricant work under pressure.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 8 2023 15:25 utc | 18

Hello b and barflies,
for those who, like me, were wondring when it would be on the “front page”,
it’s seems to be the day and on CNN please : ” Western allies receive ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive ”
front page at 20:00pm GMT+5
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings/index.html
Regards,

Posted by: Tak-Tik | Aug 8 2023 15:57 utc | 20

Over on Z there is an article about the Ukrainians catching a woman red handed sending details for an alleged attempt to killed the president by a Russian air strike. Also that it was one of a dozen thwarted attempts to assassinate him. Now if the Russians wanted him dead he would be dead. But if the Ukes are not bullshitting about a dozen attempts then it is probably a case of either Ukrainian Russians or ethnic Ukrainians doing the attempts because they don’t want the war to continue. Now if say the 13th attempt is successful and he is killed is there a number 2 ready to take charge? Will there be a disputed perhaps bloody jostle for the top spot or will all the sane guys near the top refuse to accept a poisoned chalice position with the lifespan of a Roman empires?

Posted by: Neal | Aug 8 2023 16:02 utc | 22

@Julian | Aug 8 2023 15:23 utc | 17

Prepare yourself for at least 15 more months of this grinding conflict. There is no sign Ukraine is about to “collapse” – where is the big Russian advance that would precipitate such a collapse?!??

A sudden collapse is … sudden, hard to predict. Also, I don’t think a “big Russian advance” is necessarily required, the Kiev regime is already falling apart as result of the current pressure. It will collapse, the question is when. I don’t think it will take 15 months. How ironic it would be if the Kiev regime slowly disintegrated and finally collapsed just before the next US ‘election’. Some election strategy 😀

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 8 2023 16:16 utc | 24

Posted by: Neal | Aug 8 2023 16:02 utc | 22
Zelensky is protected by Russia.
There are occasions where he went to the field (e.g. Kherson) and RU snipers were told to not shoot him. The ex-Israel PM Bennet told in an interview that Zelensky had asked him whether Russians are going to kill him, Bennet told him Putin guaranteed not to kill him, an hour or two later Zelensky came out with a video statement from his basement saying “I am not afraid”.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 8 2023 16:19 utc | 26

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 8 2023 16:16 utc | 24
A sudden collapse is … sudden, hard to predict. Also, I don’t think a “big Russian advance” is necessarily required, the Kiev regime is already falling apart as result of the current pressure. It will collapse, the question is when. I don’t think it will take 15 months.
Exactly the same things people who insist on an inevitable sudden collapse of the Russian Federation always say.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Aug 8 2023 16:27 utc | 28

Biden: ‘The ruble will be rubble nyuck nyuck get it?’
World Bank: Russia vaults to 5th place in the world’s top economies per GDP PPP, ahead of Germany, France and UK (closing in on Japan).
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?view=map

Posted by: nwwoods | Aug 8 2023 16:34 utc | 30

Because “Losing is the New Winning™”

Posted by: nwwoods | Aug 8 2023 16:36 utc | 32

A sudden collapse is … sudden, hard to predict. tegy 😀
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 8 2023 16:16 utc | 24
I’m increasingly seeing this as a bankruptcy scenario. The trends are obvious but not much happens except a slow deterioration in the situation. And then suddenly – it all happens at once. Think Saigon 75 or Kabul 21. Same with Kiev.
The weird thing is that western leaders seem to think the same is going to happen with Moscow. Just a little more time and pressure and Russia will fold.
And I would like a Unicorn for Christmas…
But the level of delusion here is astonishing if that is indeed the case. And from where I sit, that appears to be the west’s strategy and underlying thinking.

Posted by: marcjf | Aug 8 2023 16:37 utc | 34

Ukraine isn’t collapsing anytime soon. They still have people partying it up in Odessa, Lvov, and Kiev. They are closing churches and arresting priests. They are defacing historic landmarks. It seems like they have a lot of spare time to be doing all this nonsense with a war raging in the southern portion of the country. This doesn’t sound like a nation in an existential war for its sovereignty.
Ukrainians in the north, southwestern, and western sections of the country don’t seem worried about Russia forces at all. It’s bizarre.

Posted by: bored | Aug 8 2023 16:40 utc | 36

Posted by: bored | Aug 8 2023 16:40 utc | 36
Based on the Ukrainian bloggers randomly on Twitter, and those tweeting from EU area, they are tweeting more and more stuff cautioning everyone that EU may be exporting Ukrainian’s back into Ukraine. Also, Zelensky was a few days ago making a speech about “total mobilization”, and in Kherson/Nikolaev AFU was given orders to set roadblocks and forcefully prevent anyone from leaving and shoot if someone tries to run the blockade.
I’ve seen the party / pool videos from Kiev and Odessa too. Based on what Ukrainian bloggers say, they say that “this isn’t our war, it’s the politicians war”. Two of those guys made a video from Spain swimming in the ocean, that Ukraine isn’t our war. Sure, someone is partying and make random videos but in general Ukraine borders are in total lockdown, and 80% (per Lvov military commissioner) of recruits are detained from the street or picked up from their homes.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 8 2023 16:46 utc | 38

@Inkan1969 | Aug 8 2023 16:27 utc | 28

Exactly the same things people who insist on an inevitable sudden collapse of the Russian Federation always say.

They are wrong. There is no sudden collapse coming in Russia. Ukraine is the opposite.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 8 2023 16:49 utc | 40

Re: Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 8 2023 16:16 utc | 24

A sudden collapse is … sudden, hard to predict. Also, I don’t think a “big Russian advance” is necessarily required, the Kiev regime is already falling apart as result of the current pressure. It will collapse, the question is when. I don’t think it will take 15 months. How ironic it would be if the Kiev regime slowly disintegrated and finally collapsed just before the next US ‘election’. Some election strategy 😀

As long as Ukraine holds Avdiivka and is shelling Donestk downtown daily I see no sign of any Ukrainian collapse.
If Russia can’t advance the LOC 5km from Donetsk after 18 months they are not about to precipitate a collapse.
I find it far more likely the Russian fleet in the Black Sea is likely to be sunk 1 ship at a time, perhaps 1 per month, than a Russian advance on Kiev happening any time soon.

Posted by: Julian | Aug 8 2023 16:55 utc | 42

There is speculation of a major Russian offensive.
I don’t see it happening as long as the AFU is sending its troops and equipment against the fortified Russian lines.
Posted by: young | Aug 8 2023 16:18 utc | 25
I tend to agree with this analysis short term, but to end the war and dictate terms the Russians will need to engineer a significant advance and take key territory. Vis a vis the information war – so much ground that not even the western MSM can ignore. So for me the question is not if such an advance is needed; it is when, how and in what circumstances – ie the level of degradation of the UAF and the assessed respective balance of forces, plus the losses that Russia is prepared to take.
If Russia does not end the war in these terms it very strongly implies that the reason is that it cannot. If it cannot then it would mean Russia cannot impose its will on Ukraine, cannot demilitarise it, cannot change its regime nor de-nazify it, nor stop it joining NATO when the shooting stops. That would mean a strategic defeat for Russia in terms of the stated objectives of the SMO.
This is really a zero sum game. Someone wins, someone loses. IMHO.
Now it may be that Ukraine will simply collapse without a Russian attack that takes ground. In my view that is not likely. Possible. However I would judge that there needs to be some event after all the attrition that starts the collapse. A successful offensive is in my view the most visible statement of Russian power.

Posted by: marcjf | Aug 8 2023 16:57 utc | 44

Today, the Military affecting results of each side in winning some sqm top gain or lose them as Up to re-gain those fortifications as formerly have occupied by itself, ..
It’s a nonsense. No sqm-metets have been ocupied by other side.
All ! Plus-Minus regions claimed by either side are in the Gray-Zone.
That’s any major real Military access?
The time seems to click in favour of RF. I’m not very sure about.

Posted by: spare_truth | Aug 8 2023 17:06 utc | 46

@Neal | Aug 8 2023 17:08 utc | 47

So who takes the top position?

Top position of what? It is not likely to be a palace coup, what comes after is 404, not ‘Ukraine’.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 8 2023 17:14 utc | 48

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 8 2023 17:15 utc | 49
BlackRock needs Ukraine destroyed, so they can make giganormous amounts of money (from EU and US taxpayers of course) from “rebuilding” it. German government said that now the bill to “rebuild Ukraine” has risen to 2 trillion euro. Yes that’s right, whereas previously it was 700 billion, now it’s 2000 billion Euros.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 8 2023 17:31 utc | 50

>>Mercenary in Ukraine declares that he came from Poland to fight for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in order to take back HIS lands.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 8 2023 17:15 utc | 49
So far Russia hasn’t shown an enthusiasm for Poland getting its share of the take and Belarus is flat out against it. I am thinking that to accommodate Belarus, Russia is unlikely to go along. Otherwise it strikes me as a good idea for Russia. The consideration is that the other NATO members are unlikely to want to fight a war for an expanded Poland. All the better if it damages NATO.
>>the bill to “rebuild Ukraine” has risen to 2 trillion euro…
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 8 2023 17:31 utc | 50
The big money seems to be in buying the assets up for pennies on the dollar. And of course any rebuilding funds will end up benefiting the company-rebuilders considerably.

Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 8 2023 17:51 utc | 52

Posted by: unimperator @ 50
I saw that, 2 trillion, that was fast!

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 8 2023 17:58 utc | 54

reply to 51
I think you’ve done the best job here in explaining why the go slow approach prevents WW3. Let them think they can win or remain dominant. Very Sun Tzu stuff.
Russia has almost all of what it needs in territory – a bit more of Donbass and Kharkov. Odessa is till a puzzle but they can live without it.
Every 24 hours, Ukraine loses another 500 – 1000 troops. If the goal is demilitarization, that’s pretty hard to ignore in the context of permanence. They always get more weapons eventually but male Ukrainians may become rare.

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 8 2023 18:01 utc | 56

occupying territory is a key part of winning a war – THE key part.
Posted by: Julian | Aug 8 2023 17:04 utc | 45
Russia has already officially annexed four of the eastern oblasts. Barring a serious defeat that looks unlikely for now, I believe those four territories are now a part of Russia. The big deal is whether or not they take Kharkov and Odessa. My take is that they should probably annex about a third of the country, and then, regardless of any treaty agreement, expect to have difficulties with the remaining rump state.

Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 8 2023 18:05 utc | 58

… 2 trillion, that was fast!
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 8 2023 17:58 utc | 54
—
The conflict is destroying approximately $2 billions per day.
Real money. Not opportunity cost. That would be much more.

Posted by: too scents | Aug 8 2023 18:14 utc | 60

Are you German and want to invest in Ukraine?
The German taxpayer is liable! So “invest” before you are exclusively liable, right?
https://regionalheute.de/bundesregierung-erweitert-garantien-fuer-ukraine-investitionen-1691400186/
“Berlin. The German government has extended the guarantee conditions for German investments in Ukraine. From now on, not only property damage up to the complete loss of the investment would be covered, but also conversion and transfer risks for interest payments on investment-like loans, the Federal Ministry of Economics announced on Monday.”
Rheinmetall: “We can also build two tank factories.”

Posted by: 600w | Aug 8 2023 18:22 utc | 62

1/ “…Remember there were cracking points during WWI in France in 1917, when too many just died like flies, and in Germany a year later which ended the war…..” AG@14
You mean that there were mutinies in the French army (and others too). These were often inspired by the actions that the Russian soldiery had taken, of which mutiny was one of the least. I believe that another source of inspiration had been the Easter Rising of 1916- an action whose significance was underlined by the Battle of the Somme, weeks later.
2/ re the slow progress of the SMO. It needs to be remembered that the European economy and European societies are beginning to creak and buckle under the strain of the war demands, including the effects of the sanctions and the US attack on Germany’s energy supply. With each passing quarter production declines, living standards decline and the impotence of national governments becomes more evident.
This does not benefit Russia, directly but it does make life easier and options wider to, for example, Africans. NATO is involved in a lot of crises right now: far too many for its resources if they should all become worse at the same time.
To refer to the other big thread: the real solution to corruption is that it produces a ruling elite which is merely corrupt and greedy and incompetent in other matters.

Posted by: bevin | Aug 8 2023 18:34 utc | 64

Now it’s reported that the Ukrainians were able to break through the first line of Russian defenses at Dnipro.
https://charter97.org/en/news/2023/8/8/558913/
If this is true, yikes.

Posted by: bored | Aug 8 2023 18:36 utc | 66

@Norwegian, are you saying the minute Zelinsky dies the Ukraine becomes 404? Even Nazi Germany kept going after Hitlersdeath for another 100,000 plus to die.
So if Zelinsky dies today who is designated to take his job? Is there no designated number 2? Will there be a power struggle between Banderites who will never surrender and more pragmatic generals who want to sue for peace? Perhaps a peace where they are not prosecuted for war crimes or a peace that saves at least a rump demilitarised Ukraine and not a 404? Will the Russians stand by if it looks like the Banderites are routing the pragmatically? Will Russia make military strikes on those Uke units that side with the Banderites?
Will in the chaos be mass surrenders? Will there be like in 1945 hardliners shooting deserters, defeatists and anyone else who isn’t like them? Will there be rat runs of war criminals, war profiteers fleeing with whatever loot they have?
So no the it isn’t 404 end of story if Zelinsky dies.

Posted by: Neal | Aug 8 2023 18:43 utc | 68

@33, @38 unimperator
Thanks.
So that’s it still for today as a top reflection (2023-08-08).
Thanks vor currently estimated Situation “in the Ground” feelings of the fighters on either side figthing for their “needs”.
The needs of any soldiers are as ever before:
Family Phone contacts, good Food delivered top at the front-line daily & a good commander’s Perspektive what to do the next day, in sense of still being Alice when UKR attacking toward our trenches.
That’s obviously all that’s important before getting asleep.
Next morning, 4 am, Stand Up, take your positions!
Squad–Drones starting ..watch and secure Out trenches ..!
That’s all vor a “solider”.
All Guys on the home stylish Sofa: Welcome.
Do Not vorher e.g. MS. Bartbock, MS. V.d.Liars … Snipers ..?

Posted by: spare_truth | Aug 8 2023 18:50 utc | 70

@Neal | Aug 8 2023 18:43 utc | 68
Hitler died 20. April. Norway celebrates liberation from Nazis May 8. Every year, the Russians May 9. unless I am mistaken.
Nobody knows exactly how things will play out when the Kiev regime collapses, but the remains will end up somehow under direct or indirect Russian control, that is the whole point. There will be no more Banderites.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 8 2023 18:57 utc | 72

68 – Hitler killed himself on April 30, 1945.

Posted by: Waldorf | Aug 8 2023 18:59 utc | 74

Posted by: Julian | Aug 8 2023 16:55 utc | 42
Unlike you the statement under is written by a pro military guy….
Our troops simultaneously use dozens of directions, masterfully maneuvering and juggling strike directions.
I will repeat: we are all very lucky that you and I can watch the work of great masters of our craft live-such beautiful and large-scale operations could only be carried out by our great commanders during the Great Patriotic War.
But the funny thing is that all these strange sofa people who draw arrows all the time do not notice this point-blank.
Here Bakhmut and Prigozhin saw, Zaporozhye nightmare dill also saw. But this elephant, which stands in the middle of a Ukrainian china shop, was not seen at close range.
The conclusion is very simple: these guys do not know how to work with their own heads, and they only bark out what they are inspired by enemy voices. Well, or just bark.
Well, what can you do about it – where can you get away from these informational parasitic insects in our time? It remains only to give up on them.
And let us once again congratulate our commanders and fighters on such a beautiful and effective offensive operation.
And in the end, I can’t resist once again, the Ukry boasted a lot about their achievements in Zaporozhye: according to various estimates, as a result of the offensive actions of our troops, more than 800 square kilometers have been liberated since May. And together with Soledar-Bakhmut, more than a thousand.
Dill is weak to you with your measly 150 square kilometers in the gray zone. But in general, if you look at the three-month dynamics, the movement of our troops can be compared to a huge skating rink-slowly, methodically rolling out the enemy into a flat cake.
And the Ukry can no longer stop this skating rink – this also follows from this three-month battle.
With which I congratulate all of us. Whether there will be more – August has just begun.
https://t.me/voenkorkhayrullin

Posted by: Per/Norway | Aug 8 2023 19:09 utc | 76

were able to break through the first line of Russian defenses at Dnipro.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 8 2023 18:54 utc | 71
They did cross the river at that bridge, I forget the details, but suppose that given the difficulty of retreating across a river, crossing the river would be little more than committing suicide for the unfortunate troops that did it.

Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 8 2023 19:14 utc | 78

Jmaas @ 78
Not sure of that channel full of gripes and poorly done.
Maybe someone here with a military background can explain the point of the squad level Dnipro crossings, made sense early on when they were supposed to be the vanguard of a larger mechanized force but I’ve no idea what they are up to now. Russia with all its army and air force pulled back across the Dnipro because they couldn’t hold Kherson, Ukraine thinks they can hold the opposite bank with several squads and a lot of rah-rah????
I trust this more and logic backs it up.
Kherson direction, our coast, area of Cossack Camps
Immediately: a settlement behind the Russian Army.
According to the results, the enemy landing on 7 boats with a total number of up to 50 people was repelled by our troops, despite some inevitable and extremely painful problems when changing units.
The enemy evacuated part of the personnel, tried to bring supplies and supplies on boats. Failed.
The enemy has no forces for a large-scale breakthrough of the front, a major landing operation and other strategic actions. But the enemy bombards the feedback bots of military channels with old footage in order to cause a wave of publications about the non-existent movement of troops on their own bank of the Dnieper.
Sometimes there are shooting battles in the coastal zone, enemy SRGs are operating. The guys are working.
https://t.me/two_majors/10408

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 8 2023 19:26 utc | 80

Milites @ 81
Been like that repeatedly for two months, I understood the logic early on, the RF was supposed to collapse and run, what is the logic now? Even if they get a bridgehead, then what?
Maybe the Dnipro crossings are all mercenaries and at this point the USA, UK, NATO and Ukraine want to get rid of as many pendejos as possible before the collapse.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 8 2023 19:35 utc | 82

Zelensky asserts that he stands against Russia on his own, without the involvement of NATO and other Western countries.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/58334

Sure. What was all this fuzz about Leopards, HIMARS, you name it all about?
This looks like bed time.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 8 2023 19:39 utc | 84

78% of the people in Niger support the coup. The Brits would not have published it, if it were untrue.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Aug 8 2023 16:39 utc | 35
Maybe because the coupleaders
represent the 3 biggest subpopulations in niger, about 75% of the population. The former president was part of a 1% or less arab minority in the country.
I suggest to take a look at ‘history channel’ on yt*be regarding this topic, to get a basic information level.

Posted by: 600w | Aug 8 2023 19:56 utc | 86

For me the key question regarding this conflict is how it ends, and with what outcome.
As I posted above. I perceive this as a zero sum game.
How does Ukraine win? Or NATO? Only regime change, maybe brought about by humiliating Russian defeats ( aka 1905 ) and/or economic dislocation ( sanctions – nope ). Or winning an information war (not likely outside the Western MSM).
How does Russia win? Well a start would be to achieve its stated objectives. (1) Denazification (2) No Nato (3) Demilitarisation – of Ukraine.
Consider how any of these publically stated objectives can be obtained without the almost total defeat of Ukraine. I can’t see it. In my world that means occupation. Maybe not the western bits.
So I could be wrong, and lordy knows I have history in such positions, but I cannot see a situation where the Russian establishment can afford to lose this war. It is an existential conflict. So they will win it.
The problem is that DC may also see it as existential and in the end we end up with MAD. However I judge [?] the Russians are steeled to that possibility. And so is everyone else who is schooled in Realpolitik since 1945.
Dangerous times, and now the bid to up the ante (as always) is in DC.

Posted by: marcjf | Aug 8 2023 20:15 utc | 88

I’m going to have to stop now, I’m swirling about in the fast flowing drain of over thought punning !
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrr………….

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Aug 8 2023 20:18 utc | 90

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 8 2023 19:35 utc | 82
Geolocated photos that can then be amplified by an army of Twitterites, maintained by Western intelligence, to try to fuel another attempt at a psyops victory.
And as I type, as if on cue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXczESoaVKQ

Posted by: Milites | Aug 8 2023 20:22 utc | 92

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings
“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.
“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”
The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.
“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”
These latest assessments represent a marked change from the optimism at the start of the counteroffensive. These officials say those expectations were “unrealistic” and are now contributing to pressure on Ukraine from some in the West to begin peace negotiations, including considering the possibility of territorial concessions.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 8 2023 20:28 utc | 94

Frontline summary of August 8, 2023
From journalist Marat Khairullin
The Kremennaya-Svatovo-Kupyansk border. How the main operation of the Russian armed forces in the summer of 2023 is developing. And that again our military officers and bloggers did not notice.
Today, at this huge turn (more than a hundred kilometers), the main battle of the summer of 2023 is developing. The most important thing that we all need to understand about the situation here is that the slow but inexorable advance of our troops began back in May. And since then, the Ukrainians have not been able to stop this offensive of ours and force them to go on the defensive. At first, on the right flank of this line from Kremennaya, our troops crossed the Seversky Donets River in a wide front near the villages of Privolye and Shipilovka and moved in the direction of the very important urban-type settlement of Belogorovka.
The Ukrainians tried several times to recapture this area and only in the battles for the crossing lost about 70 pieces of equipment and more than three thousand people.
Now, from this side, our troops are entrenched on the outskirts of Belogorovka in the area of the bypass road and Lesnaya-Uglovaya streets. In total, the advance of our troops in this direction amounted to more than 15 kilometers.
At the same time, from the direction of Lisichansk, our troops occupied the territory of chalk production and also reached the outskirts of Belogorovka from the chalk quarry. That is, today Belogorovka is already in the pincers.
A huge group of the enemy is concentrated here – about 10 thousand people. The only supply line for this group from Seversk runs along the Seversky Donets River through the villages of Serebryanka and Grigorovka. And in this direction, our Pskov paratroopers are moving through the Serebryansk forestry.
If they eventually cross the river and cut this road, then the fate of Belogorovka will most likely be decided – it will be completely surrounded. And ukry will be forced to withdraw. They will have to go out from there through the fields and forests to Seversk.
At the same time, the paratroopers had only a few hundred meters to go to the Seversky Donets.
The fall of Belogorovka is dangerous for the Ukrovs because after that they do not have a single natural fortified area (for example, in the form of the same Seversky Donets River) to Seversk. That’s why they drive reserves here all the time, and the fighting doesn’t stop here for a single day.
In Belogorovka itself, the dominant heights around which are occupied by ours, Ukrainian soldiers are killed daily by dozens, and sometimes hundreds.
To prevent the encirclement, the Ukry are trying to strike our group in the Serebryansk forest area in the flank from Dibrovo and Grigorovka. But without success, our people do not give up a single meter of the conquered territory.
At the same time, in June, our paratroopers (the Ivanovo Division) reached the outskirts of the village of Torskoye (directly opposite Kremennaya) and gained a foothold in the area of the Zherebets River crossing (the total advance here since June has been more than 15 kilometers). Next to Torsky, two kilometers away is the large village of Zarechnoye – an important transport hub (interchange to Krasny Liman, Seversk and Makeyevka) – another one from Svatovo. This is just as important. ukrov district like Belogorovka.
This junction is already under our full fire control. This greatly complicates the overall strategic position of the Ukrainian group in this direction. So they also keep throwing reserves in here and trying to counterattack. And they suffer huge losses-sometimes hundreds of people a day.
And after our units reached their initial positions in Torsky and Belogorovka and were properly entrenched there, three weeks ago our troops crossed the Zherebets River with a wide front (the front width is about 15 km) from Novovodyanoye-Karamzinovka-Kovalevka and to Raigorodok. And they continue to move towards the Oskol reservoir, primarily in the direction of the important ferry through the village of Borovoe.
Moreover, the movement on this front does not stop for a single day – it is unhurried and methodical.
The Ukrainians, in order to stop our troops, sent three brigades here a week ago, two of which are considered elite among them, they were removed from the Zaporozhye front. But we have not achieved any results: in some areas our forces continue to strengthen, while in others they continue to move forward.
And, finally, after the recent capture of Novosyolovsky (north towards Kupyansk), our troops began to move towards the second important crossing over the Oskol River – the village of Senkovo.
And at the same time, a few weeks ago, our troops became more active near Kupyansk – they began covering the city from two sides, while our troops were simultaneously moving on the opposite side of the liberated Novoselovka along the H-26 district highway.
The Ukrainians are now urgently trying to transfer reserves here, but so far they have not been able to push us back in any part of this huge front from Kremennaya to Kupyansk.
In general, it is now clear what a huge, complex and beautiful operation our command has been conducting for the third month.
Here, greetings to all the mentally deranged people who tell us how unfit our generals are.
I must say that such a complex and magnificent operation simply requires the jewelry interaction of all parts, services and divisions. Once again, everything about this operation is beautiful – the design, planning, execution and, of course, the scale.
For example, Ukry spent their idiotic “contrastup”, about which they screamed to the whole world for six months, on about the same site in five directions, while at the same time they have enough strength to work only in two directions. As now we have Rabochino and Staromayorskoe. And they have some terrible thousands of dead people. I will emphasize – it is senseless to die.
Our troops simultaneously use dozens of directions, masterfully maneuvering and juggling strike directions.
I will repeat: we are all very lucky that you and I can watch the work of great masters of our craft live-such beautiful and large-scale operations could only be carried out by our great commanders during the Great Patriotic War.
But the funny thing is that all these strange sofa people who draw arrows all the time do not notice this point-blank.
Here Bakhmut and Prigozhin saw, Zaporozhye nightmare dill also saw. But this elephant, which stands in the middle of a Ukrainian china shop, was not seen at close range.
The conclusion is very simple: these guys do not know how to work with their own heads, and they only bark out what they are inspired by enemy voices. Well, or just bark.
Well, what can you do about it – where can you get away from these informational parasitic insects in our time? It remains only to give up on them.
And let us once again congratulate our commanders and fighters on such a beautiful and effective offensive operation.
And in the end, I can’t resist once again, the Ukry boasted a lot about their achievements in Zaporozhye: according to various estimates, as a result of the offensive actions of our troops, more than 800 square kilometers have been liberated since May. And together with Soledar-Bakhmut, more than a thousand.
Dill is weak to you with your measly 150 square kilometers in the gray zone. But in general, if you look at the three-month dynamics, the movement of our troops can be compared to a huge skating rink-slowly, methodically rolling out the enemy into a flat cake.
And the Ukry can no longer stop this skating rink – this also follows from this three-month battle.
With which I congratulate all of us. Whether there will be more – August has just begun.
From journalist Marat Khairullin

Posted by: Maratpost | Aug 8 2023 20:50 utc | 96

Posted by: John Marks | Aug 8 2023 20:37 utc | 95
The problem with giving Japan back Sakhalin and/or Kurile islands is how can you trust and verify they kick USA out. Japan is still a very much vassal state, and seems to be currently succumbing to even more globalist policies, the same ones that wrecked Europe culturally. Japan is also finally taking third world immigrants, which will wreck them.
In this context, it seems unlikely Japan could be trusted. Most likely the fate of Ukraine and Nato/US in Ukraine must be resolved first, which in the best case may have fatal effects on Nato. After that it will be easier for Japan to say “bow, back away and thank you” to uncle Schmuel.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 8 2023 20:54 utc | 98

“So either Zelenskyy is doomed, then Putin is doomed. Which is it? Or is it both?
And I think it was the Russian side that wanted to freeze the conflict instead of Ukraine’s side, because a freeze would supposedly benefit Russia.
Posted by: Inkan1969 | Aug 8 2023 16:35 utc | 31”
Nope I didnt say either will happen.
Comedian is already toast. Gone. Done. Kaput. Theres no saving that guy
Putin can get in trouble with his people if he allows NATO to freeze the conflict a la North Korea.
Russians wont be happy. Believe me.
Russia has to push Ukraine a lot more to the west for Russians to be happy.

Posted by: Comandante | Aug 8 2023 21:02 utc | 100