Russia must not become a monster…
While seeking to destroy one.

Posted by: Robert Hope | Aug 6 2023 14:01 utc | 4

Where was the missile strike on August 5: analysis of the military chronicle
This strike has a number of features that distinguish it from the previous ones.
How to understand which objects are affected?
Satellites of the NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System, or FIRMS for short, register large fires on a global scale. After the attacks on Ukraine on the night of August 6, new large outbreaks appeared, which were not there before. It is important to understand that some points on the map are marked by NASA satellites for natural reasons – for example, industrial centers or simply large working factories are marked in red on the map in some cases. However, if we compare the data on fires with some of the military targets that were hit, an interesting picture emerges.
Where did the main hits go?
Large fires are clearly visible on NASA satellite images in industrial centers and logistics hubs used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Zaporozhye, as well as in Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia and Khmelnytsky regions.
The most important evidence of the effectiveness of strikes are large fires in the Khmelnytsky region. A hit on the Starokonstantinov airfield was confirmed: satellites recorded at least four large fires there, and the total number of cruise missile hits during the night strike, presumably, exceeded a dozen.
In the Rivne region, a large ammunition or fuel depot appeared to have been destroyed in the immediate vicinity of a major railway junction in the town of Zdolbunov, and in the Vinnytsia region, a major fire started in the area of the Dzhurina logistics terminals, near the border with Moldova.
Judging by the FIRMS data, there are also several arrivals in Yamnitsa, Ivano-Frankivsk region. The centers of strong fires are visible in the industrial zone of a large cement plant and next to the railway. Also, strong burning in Malaya Kondratovka, Odessa region, on the border with Moldova.
What conclusions can be drawn?
Firstly, the massive strike inflicted on the night of August 5-6 indicates that the necessary stock of missiles in the RF Armed Forces has not only been preserved, but is constantly being increased and, if necessary, is applied in a short time to all targets assigned to defeat.
Secondly, all the necessary targets, judging by the suddenness of the strike, had been under observation for a long time and were hit at about the same time with high efficiency.
Thirdly, the ability to destroy any enemy targets with several types of weapons simultaneously was once again confirmed.
For strikes, the entire arsenal of missile weapons was used – ground-based ballistic missiles Iskander and Oniks, Caliber-NK missiles from sea carriers, as well as Kh-101 missiles from air carriers and a large number of Geran-2 drones.
Fourthly, judging by the volume of targets hit and the geography of cruise missile arrivals, a large batch of weapons, equipment and ammunition was destroyed at all the facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine deep in the territory of Ukraine.
Presumably, these cargoes should have been sent in the near future to strengthen the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and, probably, contribute to the introduction of the remaining reserves into the offensive, but now this task will be much more difficult to complete.
It is noteworthy that the matter was not limited to the night strike: on the morning of August 6, new strikes were carried out against Kharkov and the region, which indirectly indicates that missile strikes can be continued in the near future, and there are no problems with their scaling.

Posted by: Avian | Aug 6 2023 14:11 utc | 6

The saudi led Ukrainian peace talks are very interesting. It shows russias enemies are worried and want to negotiate. They don’t know how to yet, but it’s a great tell. Russia should put on more pressure and see what else they concoct.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 6 2023 14:45 utc | 8

https://tass.com/emergencies/1657227
Another civilian bridge. More “inconveniences”, more “terror” on civilians.
Anything to get Russia to fully mobilize & wreck their economy by implementing a war time economy pulling away the private sector.
Anything to get Russia to finish them off as the financial albatross hangs on EU/US neck far longer than they desire.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 6 2023 14:59 utc | 10

Posted by: rumod report | Aug 6 2023 12:51 utc | 1
My wife made an astute observation this morning, whilst watching the news ticker. Previously the MSM would unquestionably repeat anything Ukraine said as a factual statement, e.g.’Russian missiles deliberately targeted a residential area, Ukrainian authorities stated’, now they are adding the prefix ‘claim’. Small steps, but anecdotally there seems to be a Zelensky fatigue growing, amongst the average bloke, especially as we’re in for another rise in the cost of living.
As for the sea drones, they are posing the same problems for naval forces as they have for the land forces, since the beginning of the conflict. This conflict will go down as the Drone war, but the dominance of these robotic weapons won’t last long as armed forces adjust to the status quo. For now, destroy them at their source, adapt weapon systems like the multiple anti-sub rocket launchers, virtually all Russian warships possess and exploit all weaknesses remote weapons possess, limited situational awareness, slow speed, poorly armoured and dependent on remote operation. A proximity fused paint shell, grenade or rocket would, for example, blind the drone during its attack run. You might also need to emulate the RAF’s V-1 tactic of wing flipping, or in this case hull nudging. Finally, drones, both aerial and naval, are limited by weather conditions, so a temporary solution is to move valuable cargoes during bad weather, the way CVN Groups used to use storms to shield them from satellite surveillance.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 6 2023 15:01 utc | 12

We cannot, I believe, understand what the Russians are about without taking into account how we in the West expected this war to go in early 2022. We expected the Russians to very quickly get caught up in a guerilla war in Ukraine.
It would have been a very ugly guerrilla war. Much like the one we kept going in the ’50’s last century in the same area. Same hatreds around. Same passionate intensity. Same brutality. Same heavy level of casualties. Probably worse. There were said to be seven hundred thousand Ukrainian soldiers around in February 2022 and that’s a whole lot more than Bandera had.
This time round? The weapons and training we had supplied to the Ukrainians before February 2022 were not at all suited to full scale combined arms war. An all-out military clash between the two sides could only have resulted in a quick Ukrainian defeat. That was what was expected. But afterwards?
Afterwards, Russia’s Afghanistan in Ukraine. The term was often used back then in the West. We expected a quick military defeat followed by Russia’s Afghanistan.
With the men trained in small unit fighting, hundreds of thousands of them, and equipped with just the weapons needed for localised ambushes and attacks. The weapons we supplied in quantity to the Ukrainians pre-SMO were of little use against a sophisticated modern army, but very useful indeed for partisan warfare,
It’d have been a nightmare, particularly in the West where nationalist or anti-Russian feeling is strongest. Anything from killing Russian soldiers individually – we saw that not long ago when a Russian soldier was knifed in the back as he was walking through the street – to an RPG attack on a passing convoy.
Since it’s a mixed population just about everywhere it’d have also been a mess of locals killing each other and informers and brutal Secret Police work. Northern Ireland cubed, given the weaponry around and the number of fighters involved, and no keeping the lid on it.
That’s what was confidently expected for the Russians in 2022. Since we confidently expected the sanctions war to cripple them as well the Russians would have been at their wits end to know how to cope with it. They probably would not have.
The Russians sidestepped all that. That was what took all the military analysts and experts by surprise.
No shock and awe sledgehammer attacks, the way we think a war should be fought. Just a quick dash to incapacitate the Ukrainian forces and ward off the threat to the Donbass. Some patient hostage release type work down in Mariupol. Nothing much else. They stayed out of areas where the fighters could have made their lives a permanent misery. Instead they hunkered down behind strong defensive lines and let the fighters come to them.
Which those fighters have been doing in quantity and will continue to do in quantity until most of them are dead. Those who are getting mown down in terrible numbers as they attempt to get up to the Surovikin line are those we expected to be hiding behind hedges or in alleyways and taking pot shots at occupying Russian soldiers or Russian speaking neighbours.
They occupied only the areas of Ukraine where they had strong local support. Even there there have been incidents. A man with a knife or explosives and murder in his heart can do a fair bit anywhere. But a guerilla fighter in largely hostile territory is a fish out of water. He can be coped with. Guerilla fighters with at least some local support are a different matter. Those areas the Russians stayed out of and probably will.
Unless the Poles come in or unless there’s some “Coalition of the Willing” nonsense I expect the Russians will continue to sidestep trouble in this way as long as they can. All this grand talk of “broad arrow offensives” and the like isn’t for them. No doubt, were they prepared to take heavy casualties and brave the unforeseeable risks of war, they could get to Lvov tomorrow. But to what purpose? To find themselves caught up in ugly police actions and permanent insurrection? They’d be fools.
Of course if they were interested in grabbing territory they’d have to be fools. You want land, you have to kill or drive out or suppress local resistance whatever the cost. It’s just how it works and has worked in Europe for centuries.
And there are some in Russia who do think in terms of grabbing territory, just as there are those in Poland who dream of grabbing land round their way, and all over that blood-soaked stretch of Eastern Europe there are men and women cherishing similar revanchist visions.
And there are those in Kiev- I’ve seen the broadcasts – who do very much want the Donbass and make no bones about the fact that to get it, and to get it permanently, they’re going to have to kill or drive out many of those who live there.
And those who cherish such visions attribute them to others. That’s where we in the West go wrong. We attribute motives to the Russians that I’m quite sure actuate many Russians but that don’t actuate them all and certainly don’t actuate those in the Kremlin. We reckon the Kremlin’s going in for straight old-fashioned land grabbing and will do more if it can. We see the entire war as a land grabbing venture in the normal European style.
And I reckon in his heart of hearts, if we could ever get a straight answer out of him, Girkin sees it like that too and many of his ilk.
And if that’s really what it’s all about then let the blood flow as it must, because it always does flow in Europe when there’s land grabbing going on.
But I don’t think that’s what the Kremlin, and most Russians, are after. They simply want a country next door where the locals don’t get hammered if they happen to speak Russian and which the West can’t use any longer as a means of annoyance. They don’t want the fuss of occupying hostile territory and the cost of running it.
We in England still have to pay billions a year, permanently, to keep the two sides in Northern Ireland from each others throats and to keep them all fed and warm. As well as still having security personnel all over the place to keep the lid on it all. With little criminal enclaves here and there where law enforcement officers daren’t go except in force. And building “peace walls” sixty foot high to stop the locals throwing stones or worse at each other. And on top of that having the rest of the world looking on and thinking we’re still on the old colonial tack.
That, but many many times worse, is what the Russians don’t want to have next door in remnant Ukraine. And until we in the West stop using the locals in Ukraine as a means of “unbalancing and over-extending” Russia, they’ll keep stubbornly working away until they don’t have it. That’s when it will end.

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 6 2023 15:13 utc | 14

@English Outsider
If Russia took Lvov, who would supply these putative guerrillas? How? Across open fields? This isn’t 1953. Ukranazistan isn’t Belarus with its great forests and swamps. Open terrain with modern sensors isn’t any kind of guerrilla territory. And Russia eventually stamped out the Chechen insurgency, in territory infinitely more favourable to guerrillas than Ukranazistan. This guerrilla campaign that would defeat Russia is a fantasy.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 6 2023 15:22 utc | 16

It sounds like the Saudi peace summit has ended in failure … no surprise.
Russia needs to solve the problem of NATO-led drone attacks on maritime vessels. While technical solutions may be forthcoming, in the short term they need to retaliate on targets that hurt the West, not just Ukraine.
That Kiev airport is just sitting there waiting to be flattened. I’m sure it has already been pledged to Blackrock as collateral.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 6 2023 15:31 utc | 18

No doubt the Russians have been busy for the last 2 months neutralizing the latest and greatest Ukrainian offensive.
No doubt the Russians have been pretty successful in taking out the AFU as they kick against the pricks at fortified Russian positions.
I have no idea when this offensive will be over. Maybe, 10,000s more AFU troops will be thrown into the zero lines to continue to hold the now stretched lines.
When do you think the Russians will neutralize the Ukrainian offensive???

Posted by: young | Aug 6 2023 15:41 utc | 20

English Outsider | Aug 6 2023 15:13 utc | 14
We in England still have to pay billions a year, permanently, to keep the two sides in Northern Ireland from each others throats and to keep them all fed and warm. As well as still having security personnel all over the place to keep the lid on it all. With little criminal enclaves here and there where law enforcement officers daren’t go except in force. And building “peace walls” sixty foot high to stop the locals throwing stones or worse at each other. And on top of that having the rest of the world looking on and thinking we’re still on the old colonial tack.
Risible drivel. How credible is the rest of your assessment on a place far away?

Posted by: irish al | Aug 6 2023 15:56 utc | 22

Ukraine attacked the bridges connecting Kherson and Crimea again with 12 storm shadows of which 3 made it to target damaging 2 bridges and a gas pipeline. I believe the payload of su24 is 2 missiles so a salvo of 12 requires 6 aircraft. Looks like, despite strikes against Starokonstinov airfield, the Ukrainians are still managing to hide these aircraft and their munitions and launch sites. I am guessing they are dispersed and using non standard runways – roads – to take off and return. Probably missile flight paths designed to conceal/confuse attempts to determine points of origin.

Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 6 2023 15:59 utc | 24

This latest storm shadow attack appears to have occurred during Russia’s own massive aerial bombardment. Perhaps that provides cover for the Ukrainian launch as Russian assets concentrate on directing their own missiles and drones.

Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 6 2023 16:20 utc | 26

English Outsider @14
It is always a pleasure to read your posts. Clear explanation of events. I may add only that the West is overextending itself. The economic upheavals the combined West is beginning to experience – will ultimately lead to stoppage in flow of arms and to the continued ‘moral support’ to the Banderista land grabbers. (the economic problems I am taking about are based on writings of M.Hudson, H.W.Sinn, Bruce Scott – not the product of my “Geist”).
The era of capitalism in form of neo-feudalism is coming to an end. The Chinese form of governance is not my favorite either (I am talking of mass surveillance for example), but something has to give.

Posted by: fanto | Aug 6 2023 16:31 utc | 28

Posted by: KitaySupporter | Aug 6 2023 16:16 utc | 25
“Russia winning the Ukraine war is not a narrative. It is a fact. “
Right. Like the US winning in Afghanistan in 2003. Hope it doesn’t take as long for the russians to ’declare victory’ and run away, with collaborators hanging on for dear life.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 6 2023 16:39 utc | 30

Arch Bungle @ 23
In effect, if we are to be strict about definitions, there is no “offensive” just general hostilities marketed as “one last push to get to the Azov sea”.
RESPONSE: Arch Bungle, thanks for your input. Will read it over several more times.
If the Ukrainian “offensive” did not make it to the Azov sea, I don’t think the general hostilities have a chance of making it.

Posted by: young | Aug 6 2023 16:42 utc | 32

Neofeudalfuture no. 8
Note, the Russians were not invited.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Aug 6 2023 16:48 utc | 34

My main question is whether Russia will have re-routed all the Donbas /Crimean LNG and fuel lines to be able to sever from Western Ukraine by December of 2024.
For other than political reasons, I do not believe they will extend Russian gas to Ukraine again.
I’m sure they are currently revamping a way to service only East Ukraine.
Russia stated (due to gross corruption) all the pipes and infrastructure for pipelines on Ukrainian side is in severe need of repairs and replacements, and back in 2014 when they renegotiated they stated that they were not interested.
There is no illusion that Russia will extend contract by West.
And Russia currently doesn’t give a frick where EU/Germany has to go for it.
I’m sure they’ll figure out how to disconnect from West Ukraine.
I’m guessing they are indeed charging the highest transit fee possible, as well as NOT paying Russia, but Russia probably isn’t in a position with Novorrosyia & Crimea yet to turn the tap off without hurting those citizens.
Further, Russian gas to maintain contract regardless for optics.
But that deal will get the grain deal treatment come December 2024.
Anyways… wondering if anyone heard anything on any new “hubs” or whatever, Maybe through Belarus?

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 6 2023 16:52 utc | 36

Some commentors fail to grasp that Russia has every map, every building, every pipeline, every power line, every detail necessary to dismantle Ukraine. Ukraine was a “province” of the Soviet Union.
And without question there a plenty of “Ukrainians” with mixed loyalties providing Russia with details of critical locations. This is on top of all the satellite, communications signatures.
So Ukraine is NOT Afghanistan invaded by the rah-rah Americans. Afghanistan is half-way around the world from the U.S. mainland. Russia and Ukraine are on each other’s borders and Ukraine’s mediocre politicians and unchecked belligerence towards the Bear has resulted in their current pickle. Comparisons to Afghanistan are absurd.
Ultimately, regardless of the random typing, and lips flopping, Russia will prevail. And for NATO, Europe and the USA, the “winning Narrative” will be their Obituary.

Posted by: kupkee | Aug 6 2023 17:01 utc | 38

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 6 2023 16:39 utc | 29
What makes you say that “there is no reason to doubt that RU managed to hit stockpiles of those Storm shadows” ?
And why do you think the missiles are hard to move around? My guess is what you follow up with: They move them around in containers inside trucks.

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 6 2023 17:06 utc | 40

Posted by: kupkee | Aug 6 2023 17:01 utc | 38 “Ultimately, regardless of the random typing, and lips flopping, Russia will prevail.”
What is your estimate on how long this will take to occur? 6 months? 1 year? 2 years?

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 6 2023 17:09 utc | 42

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 6 2023 17:06 utc | 40
Then you are assuming they have various locations with pre-setup storages of fuel and weapon loading vehicles. What is the reason to doubt RU could have hit such a location, and taken some missiles with it?
Maybe they hit a pile of 20, and AFU still has dozens left, etc.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 6 2023 17:12 utc | 44

If Russia took Lvov, who would supply these putative guerrillas? How? Across open fields? This isn’t 1953. Ukranazistan isn’t Belarus with its great forests and swamps. Open terrain with modern sensors isn’t any kind of guerrilla territory. And Russia eventually stamped out the Chechen insurgency, in territory infinitely more favourable to guerrillas than Ukranazistan. This guerrilla campaign that would defeat Russia is a fantasy.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 6 2023 15:22 utc | 16

Everyone forgets that Russia was comfortably in control of the towns west of Kiev for about a month without much issues.
Why? Because plenty of locals cooperated. Which Putin then abandoned to be slaughtered like pigs. Then he repeated the exercise east of Kharkov. Then again in Kherson.
Thu ensuring nobody will cooperate again wherever the Russian army moves out of fear another dogovornyak will leave them at the mercy of Nazi death squads.
At this point the only way out seems to be the Nicholas II treatment for every traitor currently in a position of power and influence in Moscow, and that likely includes Putin himself, and ruthless patriots taking power and fighting a real war, stopping this SMO insanity.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 6 2023 17:15 utc | 46

kupkee @ 38
Ultimately, regardless of the random typing, and lips flopping, Russia will prevail. And for NATO, Europe and the USA, the “winning Narrative” will be their Obituary.
RESPONSE: kupkee, well written.
What happens on the zero line within Ukraine is of great importance to where the USA and Russia are heading.
The problem with the Russians prevailing is that means the rapid end of the United States Dollar (USD) as the world’s reserve currency.
The USA will become totally broke with no mechanism to recover since it off loaded its manufacturing capability over the decades.
You will not be able recognize the USA 3 months after it loses the reserve currency status of its USD. It will be worse than any of the 3rd world countries.
The defeated and dissipated peoples of a bankrupt USA most likely will not have the integrity nor the moral fiber to rebuild.

Posted by: young | Aug 6 2023 17:20 utc | 48

The Europeans think that they have a closer relationship with the USA than others. Yet the Europeans are used against Russia, like the Afghans were used decades ago. And just like the Afghan elite was caught unprepared when the Americans left, the European elite can not imagine a world where the USA abandons their European project.

Posted by: Passerby | Aug 6 2023 17:30 utc | 50

It could turn out an entertaining task at the end of 2023 to look into the articles that appeared in FOREIGN AFFAIRS since winter 2021 and look into what those puppets were writing and compare to how things turned out. And WHO in academia/media DID predict stuff correctly – if anyone was around to do so at all.

Posted by: AG | Aug 6 2023 17:38 utc | 52

https://privatization.gov.ua/en/
some might find this interesting..

Posted by: james | Aug 6 2023 17:40 utc | 54

I agree with your general thrust, English Outsider. Countries tend to prepare to fight the last war, hence why war avoidance and caution during pays greater dividends than over-commitment. US & The West has been refining their technique for Counter-Insurgency, and unofficially for Insurgency. They wanted a large Russian over-commitment so as to let guerrilla warfare attrit Russian soldiers while minimizing standard army strengths.
Russia side-stepped that by keeping their activities predominantly to military v military. And you can tell its success by the squealing taunts and myopic over-inflation of importance non-strategic & non-logistic attacks. The desperate impatience reveals the game.

Posted by: titmouse | Aug 6 2023 17:41 utc | 56

Leprechaun you’d almost think you were gleeful at the murder of civilians the way you post. Similarly with others upset at how Russia is making Maerica look impotent across the world stage. Maerica who cowers behind her battered Ukrainian proxy while committing escalating atrocities.
Yes, it’s war, people die and the West has demonstrated to the world it is fine with terrorism as long as it their side doing it. Terrorism which is UTTERLY UNABLE to change the outcome of the war. It demonstrates the mindset of the Western dipshits where everything is perception. I’m sure this will have no repercussions whatsoever and the clown Brigade can continue to laugh it up.
How is the price of food in the UK anyway?

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 6 2023 17:47 utc | 58

Ad an aside its impressive how many internal state apparatus fascists this comments section draws. Why are you so afraid of the truth, clowns? Best hope you’re right there is no judgment after death or you are capital F fucked.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 6 2023 17:51 utc | 60

A huge Guardian piece on German economy without a single mention of NS2.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 6 2023 17:38 utc | 51
Why? NS2 did not work a single day since it was finished. And now it does not even exist anymore.

Posted by: rk | Aug 6 2023 17:56 utc | 62

Ukr receives planes in very small batches, to me it looks like 1-4 planes a week. Russia can’t destroy a lot of them in a single night because they’re not in Ukr, they’re waiting in Poland, and probably Romania, then go in their kamikaze mission. Using this style there are enough Soviet planes left probably for months and then f16s will use the same method but they are dependent on runways. But in high numbers, all old crap will be sent.
Posted by: rk | Aug 6 2023 17:54 utc | 61

Correct. Which is why the asymmetrical rules of engagement BS needs to stop. RU is weaker than NATO conventionally, but it is willingly placing itself at a further disadvantage by accepting that it will take punches while not being allowed to strike back.
We have been over this many times — nobody will sacrifice NYC, DC, Boston, LA, Chicago and the Bay Area over Poland and Romania. RU can sterilize the whole perimeter with small short-range nukes (leaving its arsenal for dealing with the US completely intact) and there will be no strategic strike in response — it will have shown beyond any doubt in the most forceful way possible that it is serious, and there will be no hesitation.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 6 2023 18:13 utc | 64

shаdοwbanned | Aug 6 2023 17:17 utc | 47
“Putin should be tried for treason because he’s not started WW3”
It’s all so tiresome.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 6 2023 17:40 utc | 53

He is making it more and more unavoidable with his inaction.
Sterilizing the British Isles will not bring the end of humanity on its own, and the US will not launch a strategic strike in response — why die over something that does not exist any more?
What will happen if the current trends continue will bring the end of humanity — either that global strategic exchange will come, or Russia will cease to exist and then everyone else will be broken up and subjugated one by one.
It could have been avoided with proper decisive action that cuts off further possibilities for escalation.

Posted by: shadowbanned | Aug 6 2023 18:18 utc | 66

@ Goose of Yeah Right | Aug 6 2023 18:06 utc | 64
what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.. stay tuned..

Posted by: james | Aug 6 2023 18:20 utc | 68

Ed4@45 12 is what Russia reported via RT.
Regardless of how they managed it must be said that Ukraine has managed to protect at least 6 launch vehicles for storm shadows/variants and the means to load and fuel the aircraft despite Russian efforts to hunt and destroy this capability. Same with the sea drones. Shows the difficulty of preventing such attacks which have an outsized impact, compared to success on the battle front where Ukraine struggles for even minor advances. I would guess this situation will persist until the government in Kiev collapses. We will see.

Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 6 2023 18:23 utc | 70

Posted by: shadowbanned | Aug 6 2023 18:18 utc | 67
“why die over something that does not exist any more?”
Because the full salvo has been launched long before Russian missiles hit their targets.
And in case of England, they launch their own sub-based missiles regardless. So MAD is, and always was, very much a thing. No use arguing against it.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 6 2023 18:27 utc | 72

He is making it more and more unavoidable with his inaction.
Posted by: shadowbanned | Aug 6 2023 18:18 utc | 67
###########
The people who post this stuff make me laugh. Thank you for that.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 6 2023 18:29 utc | 74

If Russia took Lvov, who would supply these putative guerrillas? How? Across open fields? This isn’t 1953. Ukranazistan isn’t Belarus with its great forests and swamps. Open terrain with modern sensors isn’t any kind of guerrilla territory. And Russia eventually stamped out the Chechen insurgency, in territory infinitely more favourable to guerrillas than Ukranazistan. This guerrilla campaign that would defeat Russia is a fantasy.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 6 2023 15:22 utc | 16
Everyone forgets that Russia was comfortably in control of the towns west of Kiev for about a month without much issues.
Why? Because plenty of locals cooperated. Which Putin then abandoned to be slaughtered like pigs. Then he repeated the exercise east of Kharkov. Then again in Kherson.
Thu ensuring nobody will cooperate again wherever the Russian army moves out of fear another dogovornyak will leave them at the mercy of Nazi death squads.
At this point the only way out seems to be the Nicholas II treatment for every traitor currently in a position of power and influence in Moscow, and that likely includes Putin himself, and ruthless patriots taking power and fighting a real war, stopping this SMO insanity.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 6 2023 17:15 utc | 46
I have it on good account that the Gostomel operation was for creation of a support base for a de-capitation strike on Zelensky and his entourage in Kiev.
The russians made it half way from the zoo to Zelensky headquarters before they were forced to quit.
However, the Russians made the above only one of their several targets, which included ZNPP, the bio-weaps labs, the Crimean Water Supply Canal and others.
Simplincus covers this period in his mailbag…
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/subscriber-mailbag-answers-8323-part
49.
Going back to the start of the war, what was the purpose of the attack on the Gostomel Airfield and could it be called a success?
The purpose was to seize the advance forward base in order to facilitate rapid and safe delivery of materiel and special forces to first effect a spec ops infiltration of Kiev in order to try to capture the leadership, but also—should that fail—to basically create a forward bridgehead that would allow the road-marching force to arrive uncontested from the Belarusian border.
In short, the Gostomel attack was the opening phase of an ‘Operation Storm-333’ type of attempt to quickly capture Kiev’s leadership. We know this from a variety of factors, but most notably a Russian official has previously let it slip that the point was to remove leadership and install their own.
What’s interesting is that I began to immediately cover the events in depth from the moment of arrival on Saker’s site, and revisiting some of my ‘on the fly’ updates and analysis may be enlightening as I still stand by exactly what I reported at the time. But more importantly, those initially granular reports give us some insight into what was happening in those early moments which is now missing in the long view, a year and a half removed from those fateful events.
For instance, you’ll note that late on February 25th, on day two of the conflict Russian special ops troops were already working their way down Peremogy Avenue, bee-lining toward Maidan Square and Bankova St. area where Zelensky was holed up:
(for those who missed my announcement long ago and may be confused, I am Nightvision below)
I still remember it like it was yesterday, and specifically recall fighting near the Kiev zoo being reported which is right on that street along the way toward Bankova. In fact you can still confirm this with a search:
Here’s how close they were:
The zoo is circled, the red arrow is Peremogy Ave down which Russian forces were advancing, and the red X is Bankova, presidential HQ. Right next to Bankova, a block or two away, is Maidan Square—and here you can see on the same night of 2/25, I was already reporting the following:
Unfortunately, as can be seen above, I was a little too hopeful. But given that fighting was literally blocks from the presidential palace, his capture did seem imminent at the time.
As can be seen I saw it as a redux of Storm-333 even back then:
Most of these developments are now lost to history, as Ukro-supporters pump the narrative that Russia never got close to Kiev, or wasn’t close to achieving anything etc.
The fact is, the airborne created a bridgehead for special forces to make a lightning strike at Bankova, but ultimately their light forces faced too much resistance on the Peremogy Avenue battles. How it played out was for a few nights in a row, Russian forces would retreat during the day and then at night time push down Peremogy with renewed strength, each successive night advancing a bit further but they were never able to make it all the way.
But we must remember that there wasn’t just one objective. Russian military planners have the foresight to plan with contingencies; plans B, C, D, etc. If Russia only wanted to seize Kiev and its leadership, they would have sent its entire army down to Kiev and foregone doing thunder-runs in all the other directions like Kherson, etc.
The fact is, there were many key objectives Russia had to seize in a very timely fashion. For instance, there were ‘sensitive’ sites like biolabs, the nuclear power plants, etc., which if given too much time, would have allowed Kiev and their Western black ops specialists to evacuate a lot of their secret materials, programs, etc., which were operating from those locations. For instance, being Europe’s largest nuclear power plant with potential secret programs running there, as recently admitted by the U.S. when they ‘warned’ Russia not to touch their ‘sensitive’ secret equipment there, Russia had to very swiftly seize ZNPP before things could be exfiltrated.
Secondly, Russian planners did hedge their bets to an extent, and thus opened up on many vectors as a ‘fixing/pinning’ action to freeze Ukrainian reserves in various places to facilitate the seizure of other strategic areas.
But getting back to Gostomel, the ultimate point is that, if they relied only on the road marching force, they would have given far too much time for Zelensky and top leadership to not only potentially escape, but for Kiev itself to become highly fortified and impenetrable at the borders of the city. By seizing Gostomel early, it allowed them to setup a FOB and bridgehead that allowed the spec ops to operate nightly from there in an attempt to push into Kiev before all the various reserves and regional TDFs were called up to flood the city, as well as heavy armor/weapons.
Lastly, do I think it was a successful operation? Speaking of Gostomel specifically, which is what I believe you’re asking about rather than the wider Kiev operation—then yes, I believe it to be one of the most successful and professionally done air assault operations in history which will be studied in future books, doctrines, etc.
There were many lies from Kiev at the time about Russian VDV losing control of Gostomel and being ‘pushed out’, but this was later disproven. The VDV of the 31st brigade, 106th airborne division, 45th spetsnaz brigade and others all held the airport entirely and never lost it until the command to withdraw from the entire northern front in early April, 2022. So as far as the specific VDV air assault operation for the airport, it was an astounding success and I don’t think there’s any country in the world that currently fields a force that could have pulled it off. Recall U.S.’s ‘Seal Team 6’ which had its choppers shot down and were almost SOL in the Bin Laden raid.
Also, I’d like to note that just like the infamous Russian 155th marines “catastrophe” in Ugledar which were debunked by confirmed MediaZona obituaries, showing they actually lost only a few dozen people or less, similarly MediaZona posted figures for Russian VDV losses during the Gostomel days and they were likewise very low, particularly compared to Ukraine’s claim of the VDV being “completely decimated” and basically “ceasing to exist”.
You can see they peaked in those late february Gostomel battle days with ~120+ casualties per week, which represents ~17 killed per day. During the most intense breaching-style fighting, 17 KIA per day is hardly ‘catastrophic’. Recall that the AFU averaged 500-1000 KIA per day during hotter times. And that’s only for the two weeks of late Feb. to early March. After that, when the road-marched force of Rosgvardia and Kadyrovites arrived, the VDV losses dropped to a mere 20 a week, which is like 3 a day.
Of great importance, not discussed above is this operation forced the Ukies to send the bulk of their available forces to defend Kiev, leaving most of the front unguarded, which enabled the Russians to take Kherson and the ZNPP.
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 6 2023 18:58 utc | 76

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-8523-projecting-the-intermediate
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/08/for-those-about-to-read-this.html

Posted by: Avian | Aug 6 2023 19:04 utc | 78

If really some CLUSTER-Bombs have attacked the ‘Donetzk-CITY Universery” plus neighbour houses in circles o 700 me3ters – Thats havig stroken a CLUSTER Bomb – by whome ? Big question .. to resolve by MSM -or thin-guys by West a la CNN,BBC,CNBC, –? Be careful what Yu further may report – You’r an assh, Misssis CNN!

Posted by: spare_truth | Aug 6 2023 19:09 utc | 80

Aurlien in his blog “Trying to understand the world”
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/round-two-there-is-no-round-two
Makes the following point….
It’s quite possible that in a month’s time, Ukraine will still be able to field a couple of hundred armoured vehicles, including tanks, perhaps a hundred artillery pieces, and perhaps 30,000 western-trained infantry. But they might as well not bother, because these are likely to be in penny-packets, in units which have been badly mauled and have taken heavy casualties.
The military talk about something called force-to-space ratios. These have increased massively since the nineteenth century, when the main challenge was just finding out where the enemy’s Army actually was. From 1914/15 armies became large enough that it was possible to establish a continuous front, such that the enemy couldn’t move forward anywhere without assaulting and overcoming the troops facing them. Even in the vast spaces of Russia between 1941 and 1945 the front stabilised after a while, as the Soviet system generated entire new armies. In addition, possession of key terrain such as high ground and rivers, as well as towns and communications hubs, make the process of maintaining a continuous line easier, and assaulting it correspondingly more difficult. And of course you don’t need to stand on every inch of terrain if you can control it by indirect fire or airpower. Up to now, the Ukrainians have largely managed to keep a continuous front, to the degree that the Russians have not tried any of the massive outflanking manoeuvres the West was expecting, because that would be expensive, and leave their troops exposed.
But increasingly, they don’t need to. There will come a point fairly soon where the number and capability of Ukrainian forces, their density, if you like, declines to the point that they can no longer hold a continuous line. Note that it’s not just about numbers. Modern warfare is frighteningly complex, and one element relies on many others to operate properly. We can see the results for the Ukrainians of having lost their airpower and helicopter capabilities some time ago, and now steadily losing what remains of their artillery capability. So let’s assume for the sake of argument that in two weeks time the Ukrainians still have, oh, fifty modern tanks of various types and three times that number of armoured personnel carriers. But they will be scattered over a wide area, quite possibly out of communication with each other and with their superior commanders, and made up of disparate groups of equipments and personnel trained in different places by different nations according to slightly different principles. There may be ammunition and spares but no tanks, or tanks without ammunition, and the units themselves will only be viable until they run out of fuel or something breaks. It’s highly improbable that they would all be able to operate together as an organised group, even if they were collected together and adequately supplied. At that point, the Ukrainian forces will have such a low density compared to the size of the terrain that they will cease to be a threat and will become a nuisance. Of course, they can continue to carry out ambushes and hit and run attacks, but if the Russians decide to move forward, all the Ukrainians can do is slow them down.
But won’t Kiev simply create more units from conscripts, willing or otherwise, and send them to the front? Maybe, but armed with what? The West has no more heavy equipment left to send, and it scarcely seems credible that western powers would disarm themselves completely by taking much of their operational capability from their own front-line units and sending it to Ukraine, to be destroyed just as advanced western equipment currently is now. In any event, such a force could not be put together much before the end of the year, and during the interim period the Russians would be able to do pretty much what they wanted to. Dismounted infantry or infantry in jeeps might be able to harass advancing Russian troops but that would be all, and they would become pretty useless with the approach of the autumn rains, whilst the Russians would be able to advance quickly along roads and railway lines. There is, in fact, a historical example which gives some indication of how difficult it would be to stop such an advance without heavy weapons. In 1944, one of the tasks of the French Resistance was to hold up German reserves from elsewhere in France reaching the main battle in Normandy after the Allied landings. The Resistance forces, reconfigured as the Internal French Forces (FFI) were trained by British and American instructors and by French Army officers, for about the period of time that recent Ukrainian forces have been trained recently, mostly in small-unit tactics. The FFI fought heroically and with heavy casualties, and did succeed in slowing the Germans down, but never succeeded in actually defeating a formed German unit. And the Germans had effectively no air power to rely on, and were operating in hostile territory at the end of difficult supply lines. In effect, therefore, even tens of thousands of rifle-carrying foot-soldiers, no matter how well motivated, would only be a speed bump for the Russians.
We are at the turning point now….. Witness the front has been in stalemate since 29 July. Next we will see Russian advances on multiple axes…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 6 2023 19:10 utc | 82

If even 50% of that crapola was true, Ukraine would have ceased to exist long ago….yet they fight on.
Funny that.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Aug 6 2023 18:22 utc | 70
———————————————————–
Russia has already destroyed two US/ NATO trained military forces; they are now working on the third.
You say, “Funny That.” Funny how? Funny like Ha! Ha! What the fuck do you mean; funny?
Just joking, name that film.

Posted by: Ed | Aug 6 2023 19:11 utc | 84

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 6 2023 18:19 utc | 68
There was a lot of active fighting close to and very early on, in Kyiv itself. The Russians made it into Kyiv, all the way to the zoo.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1497385748680556548
https://twitter.com/i/status/1497384009420136457
https://twitter.com/i/status/1497386752054546433
The above, among other things helps make up my opinion on this that Putin did not think Ukraine would fight. He thought it would work like the Soviet invasions of Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan. Grab an airport at the capital, link up at the airport with ground forces and flood the place with troops and the citizens figure it’s over why bother to resist.
That was Plan A. We now are working with Plan B, or maybe Plan C.

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 6 2023 19:19 utc | 86

Okay – CLUSTER Bombs are falling down from sky, as You – as civilian – may not identify as it is as one of “THOSE” big bomb shellings – You might ever heard above of Your home.
BUT This, heard one explo, then several furthrt explosions round-about within 500m ..
So if true,
HEAR -US/UKGER: You are a devil, hiding at home, “WE’ve” also Attack groups like PMC to assassinate YOU at the “ri9ght time” ! PS: PMC is coming back (even current Niger conflict) to Belarus, to plan a new offensive against North of UKR.
Play –
US/EU against ..? Have identified your Power members .. Dont think so ..,
Go on North-America ..!

Posted by: spare_truth | Aug 6 2023 19:22 utc | 88

@85 Good Fellas

Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 6 2023 19:31 utc | 90

Ukraine plans to match Russia’s mobilization as reports now claim:
In Ukraine, a large-scale mobilization may be announced in winter.
This “big mobilization” in Ukraine, which was announced by the deputy of the Rada Dubinsky, is, apparently, general raids on everyone who can still hold weapons, and no longer with campaigns in certain cities and districts, but on a large scale, everywhere and constantly.
Supplies of equipment from the West do not allow maintaining the required level of armament of existing units. If the number of these units increases, it will most likely mean the appearance of several dozen more TrO brigades, where for 3-4 thousand people in a brigade there will be a maximum of a tank company, a howitzer battery and a mortar division. Such brigades will not be capable of anything other than “meat assaults” or sitting in a blind defense.
A certain number of units with more or less normal equipment, of course, will remain — and will probably work as fire brigades.
The other side of the issue is the command of such units. You can recruit tens of thousands of conscripts aged 40-55. It is more difficult to understand who will control these troops on the battlefield. The shortage of junior and senior command staff began long before the start of the AFU offensive, and this problem has not yet been solved.

Posted by: ukromobilization | Aug 6 2023 19:38 utc | 92

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 6 2023 19:22 utc | 88
“It also explains why NATO’s options are fairly close to non-existent.”
The West’s can continue to send weapons into Ukraine for a long time. It looks like the first French stand off missiles got used today. The US can continue to replace Bradleys from storage for years at the current rate of loss. Not quite a long for Strykers but still a long time.
In some cases sending the stuff to Ukraine is cheaper than continuing to store it and eventually disposing of it.
There is a long slog ahead.

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 6 2023 19:38 utc | 94

Simplicius weighs in….
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-8523-projecting-the-intermediate
There aren’t a whole lot of significant battlefield updates just yet, so I wanted to take this time to project what the medium-term future will look like based on Ukraine and the West’s signaled plans for the next 6 months and more.
But first, let’s summarize roughly where things stand, particularly vis a vis the grand summer ‘offensive’ so that we’re all on the same page as to where the conflict currently stands narratively.
Early this year, Ukraine began to outfit two separate ‘army corps’ of maneuver brigades specifically for the coming ‘counter-offensive’. These were the 9th Corps and the 10th Corps. The 9th Corps was meant to be the—mostly—NATO-armed and trained one which was famously revealed in the Pentagon leaks. It consisted of the 9 named maneuver brigades, which were the 116th, 47th, 33rd, 21st, 32nd, 37th, 118th, 117th, and the 82nd air assault.
Out of these, the 47th was said to be the most elite, cobbled from all ‘volunteers’ who signed up specifically from other units and were trained in the UK and were armed with 99 x M2A2 Bradleys as well as American M109 Paladins for artillery.
The role of the two army corps was that the 9th was meant to be the breakthrough brigade which reached the first ‘main line of defense’, the notorious ones with dragon teeth that Russia spent months constructing. Upon reaching this line, the 10th Corps was meant to be the ‘breakthrough’ force which then took over for the 9th, pouring in another fresh 9-12 brigades through the gap to create an unstoppable opening.
💥💬💥Yaakov Kedmi on why Western instructors have taught the Ukrainian armed forces nothing:
“Neither the British nor the French, no one has ever trained and tried to break through echeloned defence systems. They don’t know how to do it, they’ve never done it. So it is unlikely that they can teach it. Yes, there are certain units in the American army – armoured units. But much more organised, with professional soldiers.
The American armoured division practised how to break through an echeloned defence line. But they’ve never done that in any war, not even in World War II. They fight differently. So there’s nothing to teach them.
To break through Russia’s echeloned defence, you have to throw at least one division into the breach and after a while replace it with another. Because it will be all destroyed in the first stages of the breakthrough, having advanced in just one or two lines. Further on it needs more and more! They can’t do it. Firstly, they don’t have that much force. Secondly, any attempt to concentrate large formations before attacking makes them an excellent target for artillery and air attacks.
Western armies are not ready for the kind of war, the kind of military actions that are being waged in Ukraine today and will be waged tomorrow. They are not ready for modern serious military operations by large army formations against the Russian army.”
The 9th experienced catastrophic losses from the start of the offensive on June 4th onward, as we all know. There are rumors that entire brigades were wiped out—for instance, this odd headline about the 32nd (one of the 9 from 9th Corps) which apparently was ‘mysteriously’ shipped out to a dead frontline:
Or this one, which details how several of the 9th Corps brigades seemed to be completely missing in action:
What was interesting is that, as per the 32nd brigade above, yesterday some new documents were leaked online which appeared to show that the 32nd was remanded due to mass desertion/mutiny and refusal to follow orders:
Furthermore, there were reports online from alleged loved ones and relations of the soldiers from the 32nd that an entire battalion was completely ‘destroyed’:
According to captured documents and confirmed by social media messages from distraught loved ones, an entire battalion of the 32nd Separate Rifle Brigade of the Ukrainian Army has been wiped out. 🪦🇺🇦
So the 9th Corps was not able to reach Russia’s first line of defense and the brigades had appeared to be too degraded to go on any further, many of them withdrawn to refit/reconstitute in the rear. The 10th Corps was then injected prematurely to take over, which is what this new ‘second phase’ has been all about since the end of July.
Keep in mind, no one actually knows for certain regarding the 10th Corps, but the above has been the main narrative not only of NYTimes reporters who first broke the story but Rob Lee and Kofman who’ve now certified this narrative of the 10th Corps’ take over.
Some context: Ukraine had, according to the Pentagon leaks, about 34 maneuver brigades, with another 27 TDF (Territorial Defense Forces) brigades likely capable of mostly holding trenches and without much heavy weaponry or armor, and 9 artillery brigades total left in the war. This is 61 total infantry/armor brigades which are meant to hold a frontline 1,300km long. This averages to 1300/61 = 21km per brigade. Note that in Soviet doctrine a brigade should hold something like no more than 2-3km at most and an entire division should hold 10km. Not to mention that Ukrainian brigades are at most 4000 men when they should be 5000, most are 3000 and apparently, even according to MSM articles covering them, some are 2000.
Some will ask, how is it possible that Russia is not overwhelming the AFU with such thin lines and battered brigades. Recall that Russia is only fighting this war with a percentage of its armed forces. The Russian army has classically had anywhere between 50-65% contract with 50-35% conscripts, and as you know, the MOD is not allowing conscripts to fight here. That means Russia is only using about ~60% of its total bayonet strength while Ukraine is using everyone—all Ukrainian troops are conscripts force-mobilized straight from the street.
Not to mention there are still hundreds of thousands (official number 340k) of ‘National Guard’ that Russia is not utilizing while Ukraine uses its full national guard, police force, and everything in between as frontline assault. Russia has typically only used small specialized Rosgvardia ‘special forces’ like FSVNG rather than the regular national guard itself. Thus, Russia is fighting this entire war as an exclusively contracted, professional military force while leaving hundreds of thousands of troops not committed. Ukraine on the other hand is committing everything imaginable.
In short, Ukraine faces flagging support from the West and is forced to resort to increasingly escalatory ‘gimmicks’ like mass terror drone attacks on Moscow in the same vein as the terminal phase of the Wehrmacht in WW2 vindictively launching V1/V2 rockets at London. This is nothing more than a dying animal, thrashing out its last gasps.
Meanwhile, Russia is on track for 400k new servicemen by the end of this year, with production of all kinds continually ramping up. By next spring, I believe what we’ll see is the slow envelopment of the AFU from every direction. It likely won’t be a massive big arrow campaign but a continual collapse on every single front where the AFU has completely exhausted all combat potential, particularly of the offensive variety, and is desperately trying to hold ground. The dam will slowly break in multiple directions and their positions will be overrun everywhere. Next year will likely look like early 1945 Germany.
Another view…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 6 2023 19:41 utc | 96

that only indicates that UKR wealthy and/or lucky male guys of an un-suspected family have a good chance to “evacuate” to #EU/Germany where every UKR-Guy may have social Hartz-IV immediately, without showing any passport.
That’s the solution – doubt that.

Posted by: spare_truth | Aug 6 2023 19:47 utc | 98

What the heck? Has Russia no shame? Escorting the enemy drone instead of killing it or at least taking it down? Learn respect and honour from the Iranians.
Quote ”
5 AUG, 17:04Updated at: 18:51
Russia’s Su-30 fighter shadows US MQ-9A Reaper drone over Black Sea
As soon as the Russian fighter approached the foreign reconnaissance drone, the latter made a U-turn away from the state border of Russia”

Posted by: Sam | Aug 6 2023 19:56 utc | 100