Posted by: Julian | Aug 7 2023 5:36 utc | 197
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 7 2023 5:41 utc | 198
Which one’s Simon Bird?
https://youtu.be/i_NQqnc_ue0

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Aug 7 2023 6:45 utc | 203

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 7 2023 5:59 utc | 200
sure pal, like saying, when somebody asks for evidence Saddam had wmd’s when the US invaded, just “google Colin Powell UN Speech”. guess what, googling it won’t magically make those dump trucks wmds, and won’t make the substance in the vial weaponized anthrax.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 7 2023 7:09 utc | 205

German Industrial Output Declines More Than Expected
BERLIN (dpa-AFX) – Germany’s industrial production declined more than expected in June on weak auto production, data from Destatis revealed on Monday.
Industrial production posted a monthly fall of 1.5 percent in June, following a revised 0.1 percent drop in May. Output was forecast to decrease moderately by 0.5 percent.
Data showed that production in automotive industry declined 3.5 percent, while pharmaceutical industry registered a 7.9 percent rise.
Excluding energy and construction, industrial production was down 1.3 percent.
On a yearly basis, industrial production slid 1.7 percent in June after staying flat in May.

Posted by: maney | Aug 7 2023 7:29 utc | 207

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 6 2023 23:54 utc | 152
You don’t know where Bug is, you probably don’t know where Kiev is.

Posted by: RB | Aug 7 2023 7:56 utc | 209

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 7 2023 5:59 utc | 200
Updating my list of MSM lies:

A catalogue of lies we’ve been told my the western MSM since February 2022 about Russia in general and the SMO in particular (not exhaustive):
1. The Russian MIC cannot manufacture semiconductors
.
.
.
66. Putin is in league with the Russian Oligarchs and therefore targeting the Oligarchs harms Putin
67. The Bucha ‘massacre’ was carried out by the Russian Army.

Sure we’ll hit 100 pretty soon.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 7 2023 8:06 utc | 211

This war is showing that it is hard to go on the offensive across farmland in modern times. Drones and satellites see vehicles and troop formations and then GPS guided bombs or GPS directed artillery guns can destroy them.
Posted by: Simon | Aug 7 2023 3:56 utc | 188
That isn’t the problem. Russia doesn’t look like it’s interested. They’ve retreated the entire last year and even after referendum. How can anyone expect they will go to Odessa when they ran from Kherson and Zap. like Americans from Afghanistan?
And the troops in Ukr are still highly outnumbered, can’t advance. This literally is a little smo and the result will be very volatile, is 2014 on a wider scale.
I’ve said before, if Poland only wants their old parts, all they have to do is organize a referendum and in a few days is done, Russia even suggested it more or less explicitly. But they don’t want the useless Lviv, they want all the npps, pipes and Odessa, they want Transnistria and basically a new nato expansion by annexing Ukr. With their 5 soldiers in Ukr, Russia will have to watch like a spectator, the same way it was in 2014.

Posted by: rk | Aug 7 2023 8:11 utc | 213

What changed?
NATO weapons flooded in. That is what changed.
Had that not been allowed, the AFU would have long collapsed.
Which once again brings us to the question why NATO weapons were allowed to flood in…
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 7 2023 0:44 utc | 163
When Ritter said that it was a game changer many people attacked him including Hack. He was right.
Posted by: RB | Aug 7 2023 8:08 utc | 213
To Sb:
You need to think HOW that could ever have been prevented. RF troops at every Ukrainian border crossing? Every road truck and train in west Ukraine blown up? Every incoming cargo plane shot down. A total Black Sea embargo? Given the impossibility of such a nationwide blockade with Russia’s paltry initial 130k, they opted for destructive attrition WITH SOLDIERS at the front and rear. And it’s been massively effective, albeit slower and with more RF casualties. And as for the “why wasnt it stopped”? It became Moscow’s revised strategy to attrite NATO and friends of their toys, expose their toys as crap, exhaust Ukrainian mobilisations. Honestly, simply stopping its entry would not have thwarted the US Op. Better to do the long, more permanent job of defeating all the fuckers down to empty pantries … which they all have now.
To RB:
Yes Ritter had the THEORY to stop it but no solutions other than a Big Shock and Awe Blockade.
Gamechanger? Yes and no. Changed the duration of the game, the casualties of the game, the 18 months of tactical games, EW and tech innovations, increased war manufacturing. All good in my books. But it did not/will not change the inevitable outcome of the game (I’ll forecast).

Posted by: SCCC | Aug 7 2023 8:48 utc | 215

The journalist Marat Khairullin congratulates the capture of Novoselovskoye village in the Svatovo district and highlights its importance. He then touches upon the Western propaganda’s assessment of the Ukrainian offensive in Zaporozhye and near Artemovsk-Bakhmut. While the offensive was seen as successful, with the Ukrainians gaining around 180 square kilometers, the losses incurred by the Ukrainian forces were significant. These losses included 43,000 soldiers, 4,900 units of armament, 1,831 units of tanks and armored vehicles, 26 planes, 9 helicopters, 747 units of artillery and mortars, and 84 units of self-propelled guns. The exact losses were estimated by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, with the West remaining silent about them.
Turning the attention to the Russian side, the journalist notes that it has been three weeks since their advance began, although they prefer not to call it an offensive to appear more modest compared to the Russian army. In this period, apart from capturing Novoselovskoye, the Russian forces have gained control of approximately 240-250 square kilometers. They have also forced the Ukrainian forces to retreat from bridgeheads near Kleshcheevka, Staromayorskoye, and Pyatihatok. The journalist provides a breakdown of these areas of control, mentioning that about 140 square kilometers have been taken in the Karamzimovsky bridgehead area on the left bank of the river Zherebets, including Novoselovka and up to Torskoye. Additionally, around 20 square kilometers have been secured around Kupyansk, both on the right and left of Sinkovka, with another equal amount in the area of Belogorovka and Serebryansky forestry.
The journalist concludes by hinting at further advancements, specifically mentioning Avdiivskyi, but does not provide further details. Overall, Marat Khairullin’s bulletin highlights the recent capture of Novoselovskoye village and provides a comparison of the Russian and Ukrainian forces’ gains and losses in recent weeks.
(Marat Khairullin on TG)

Posted by: Avian | Aug 7 2023 9:33 utc | 217

For sure they will be driving them out eventually.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 7 2023 5:41 utc | 198
Confirms what I always say, Bandera Ukrainians want Soviet borders but not Soviet people. You guys want a Ukrainian naqba. Terrorize Russian speaking people to force them out from their ancestral lands.

Posted by: RB | Aug 7 2023 9:45 utc | 219

?The Russian federation has no control the western borders of Ukraine.
Therefore it has no capacity to interdict weapons flow into Ukraine.
It’s not as if they had a choice and chose not to block weapons flow.
It’s the fact that no state has the power to hermetically seal the borders of a country it is at war with.
This is not a game of Warcraft. (Heck, you probably couldn’t even do it in Warcraft …)
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 7 2023 8:18 utc | 215

1 to 10 Kt a mile inside the border at each of the ~25 crossings. Give a week warning for all civilians nearby to evacuate (some of those are small towns right next to the border). Ground burst, not an air burst, in order to leave it radioactive for as long as possible. Hit it again as soon as they try to build new crossings. Keep doing it after that.
I am quite sure this will indeed seal the border crossings.
Ukraine has no qualms about playing dirty, why allow such asymmetrical rules of engagement in an existential war?

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 7 2023 9:54 utc | 221

Good catch Lavrov’s dog. I knew that shadowbanned post was bullshit because of not explaining what was “wrong” with Simplicius posts back in “December”. Lol! This is bullshit peddled without due dilligence.
It’s good that I only read short posts by those I suspect are trolls, don’t waste time with bullshit.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 7 2023 9:43 utc | 219

Yes, I messed up the date, but that doesn’t change much.
Let’s look at the posts from February.
The first one is titled “The Coming Russian Offensive 2023 – Part 1 Calm Before The Storm”, from February 2 2023.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-coming-russian-offensive-2023
Then we have “The Coming Russian Offensive 2023 Part 2 The Countdown Begins” on February 6 2023.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-coming-russian-offensive-part
And then “SITREP: Update 2/18 – Major War Confirmed Imminent Calm before the storm.” February 18 2023.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-update-218-major-war-confirmed
You’ve seen the major offensive that was promised? I haven’t.
Some quotes:

And now, sources are indicating Russia is ready to pull the trigger within 10 days of this writing (2/6):
Not to mention new reports that there are “tens of thousands” of Russian troops accumulating north of Mariupol as we speak. Although one report slightly tempered this down to an increase from 10k to 30k troops.
Also, it’s being reported that Putin’s ‘State of the Nation’ address will be given to the Duma around February 20-21, right on the eve of the SMO anniversary. One can only recall his foreboding address last February when he first announced that Russian troops will be entering. This new address could herald the start of Phase 2.0.
[…]
There are 3 main distinct operational possibilities for the big Phase 2.0 offensive that we’ll cover individually:
The first is the most clamored after and ambitious: the “big arrow” push from Western Belarus into Volyn province to either capture, surround, or cut off Lvov, and thus isolate Ukraine from all Western aid coming in from Poland. There are several sub-variations, i.e. an ‘all out’ attack on Lvov from Belarus (with or without the help of the Belarus Armed Forces), or as part of a multi-pronged attack that also hits Kiev and elsewhere.
[…]
2. The ‘Macgregor Axis’
[…]
Macgregor favors the medium line. The strike down from Belarus towards Vinnytsia and Moldova, by way of Zhytomir:
[…]
3. The Golden Cauldron
This final vector is not only the most realistic, most probable, but also my personal choice as the most likely to be chosen.
This vector is the more traditional, safe route of Russian forces pushing up from Zaporozhe to cut Donbass from the south. Russian forces pushing down from Belgorod region into Kharkov, possibly from Kursk into Sumy and Bryansk into Chernihov.
[…]
Since we’re getting so close to approaching the nail-biting period of February 21 – 24 that so many are anticipating, I figured it’ll be good to compile all the recent, top developments regarding the potential for a new ‘major’ Russian offensive. Some of them have already been mentioned in a previous update, but we’ll cite them again to centralize all relevant materials.
1. First, there are two reputable channels which are now confirming major actions are coming within a week. Romanov Lite, who many of you know, is a Crimean based commentator who also works with some Russian/Donbass units, helping supply them and is often seen on the lines with them, often has insider info as he speaks directly to the troops. He posted this message that it is soon GO TIME:
[…]
3. Recently we had the first ever confirmation—with actual photographic evidence—of Russian force buildups on Ukraine’s border resembling those of pre-Feb. 2022. Here are satellite photos of one of them; there are reportedly such camps in Kursk and Voronezh regions, which are directly above Sumy and Kharkov oblasts of Ukraine.
4. There are now several reports of large field hospitals being constructed in at least two different regions, again reminiscent of exactly what happened last time prior to the start of the SMO. And a senior lieutenant of the AFU stated that 10,000 Russian troops have amassed across the border from Sumy.
[…]
Additionally, enemy intelligence notes that we have deployed 6 Iskander missile launchers and 26 different types of MLRS. In the city of Grodno, a hospital base is deployed on the basis of the 1134th VCMC.
5. A massive 80km long convoy of Russian army supply trucks is reported to be currently in transit slowly through mud between Mariupol & Berdiansk, according to ‘advisor to the mayor of Mariupol’ Petro Andryuschenko. Keep in mind this is the exiled Ukrainian ‘ex-advisor’ to the previous Mariupol administration prior to its liberation.
[…]
In short, Ukraine’s AD network is in DIRE condition. And I believe this is the reason that Russian airforce is beginning to step up and operate with more impunity. And once even MORE fixed-wing/rotary pieces join the fray, it will create the compounding effects I spoke of last time, and should completely overpower the remaining AD and wreak havoc on the AFU. And this goes with the mentioned ‘rumors’ that the next phase will feature a much more offensively active RuAF.
And by the way, there is far more evidence of why the Ukrainian AD is heavily degraded to the point of nonexistence, but I feel it’s beyond the scope of this simple Sitrep and don’t want to get into every single point—but just know that this part is not mere speculation, it’s based on heavy, accurate longstanding analysis with much corroborative facts which include the direct statements of several RuAF pilots in interviews posted to the Russian MoD channel, where they directly state this.
[…]
12. The large reported die-down of both Russian artillery and long range missile strikes (they still happen, just not as often—at one point once per week, now every 2-3 weeks) is likely a final buildup of stores and inventory before launching larger, coordinated offensives. With that said, Russian missile strikes did tick up recently but they were in smaller, more focused batches than usual.
13. Mentioned in an earlier report, Putin is now officially scheduled to give a big State of the Nation address on February 21st, which falls precisely on the anniversary of his pivotal Feb. 21, 2022 speech where he first announced the recognition of LPR/DPR’s independence, leading the way to the big Feb. 24 speech which announced the actual full military launch of the SMO invasion.

So did I “bullshit”?
P.S. The reason I messed up the date is that in my mind no such comical writing about major offensives coming was possible in February, when it was pretty clear no such thing was coming (there had been no real winter, the winter season was ending anyway, and there was no real visible preparation for such a thing).

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 7 2023 10:08 utc | 223

@ LightYearsFromHome | Aug 7 2023 8:55 utc | 217
Good points there. I think that RF is going to start taking those down before they make some serious moves. They do not forget who did what and when. I also think that tuning EW towards those is sufficient for now.
Code 7800 has been seen many times on those, meaning: go home, link lost, system reboot. It is more elegant way of blinding those than crudely crashing them. I think there is nothing new to learn from downed drones.Taking down AWACS is another story, but that is possible after the decision to escalate is made. We might not be that far away from such “changing the game” events.

Posted by: whirlX | Aug 7 2023 10:11 utc | 225

Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 7 2023 6:00 utc | 201
On your first several points you are completely correct and we are in total agreement. Which can be summed up as ALL money is debt.↓
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KPyEcTmo2U4
Your last few points you start to drift and scratch your head a bit as you probably haven’t studied the assets and liabilities and the balance sheets. Which is understandable as who honestly has the time.
Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. They are also expected by law to make markets for the New York Fed on behalf of its official accountholders as needed, and to bid on a pro-rata basis in all Treasury auctions at reasonably competitive prices. List of primary dealers ↓
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealers
Can the US Treasury run out of money when the US government can’t?
https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2019/03/can-the-us-treasury-run-out-of-money-when-the-us-government-cant.html
Read the threads you might actually learn something Jmaas.
In the UK before the Maastricht treaty it was ALL done by an overdraft using the ways and means account.
Pre-1997 the UK government simply spent according to direction from Parliament and this was expressed as money injected into the economy via the Bank of England. Then the Bank of England issued gilts (though always a liability of Treasury) solely with an eye on monetary conditions. In cases where not all of the government spending was drained – because the monetary objectives didn’t require it – then Ways and Means account simply acted as a balancing item. The Ways and Means account was therefore basically analogous to an overdraft (as I know other folk in here have always understood it), an IOU of the Treasury.
So in this case, we have Treasury IOUs backing central bank money creation, but as explicit, overt, unequivocal money creation by government spending. And the only concern in this system was the monetary target, i.e. inflation.
Post-1997 we have the system that we have now. The Treasury (DMO – debt management office) is now responsible for cash management which means it has to clean up after itself by issuing gilts to neutralise its spending. This leaves the Bank to focus on regulating the economy only with respect to prevailing conditions rather than the additional complication of government cash flows. So now when the BoE needs to add more money to the economy it cannot use any of the government’s direct spending (i.e. only drain part of it off) as before because the DMO has already drained it all. So now it has to buy back some of the gilts that the DMO sold.
Again, we have net money added to the economy backed by a Treasury IOU, though this time it is a gilt rather than an entry in the Ways and Means account.
Are you still with me ? You understand that yes ?
The FED finishes what the US treasury starts. They decide what type of monetary instruments are left in the economy.
So if the FED decided they want more 30 year bonds in circulation it has 2 options.
1. The FED can sell 30 year bonds that It owns.
2. Ask the US Treasury to issue more 30 year bonds in the primary market.
So if the treasury only issued 30 year bonds and done nothing else. Then the FED the day after the treasury issued them choose to replace half of the bonds with cash. Then that is exactly the same as if the treasury issued only cash then the very next day the FED replaced half of the cash issued with 30 year bonds.
This is a crucial understanding. It doesn’t matter what monetary instruments the treasury decided to issue to fund its spending. What really matters is what monetary instruments the FED decided to leave in the monetary system after the treasury spending.
From a monetary policy perspective if the FED wants more bonds in the system and less reserves. Or less reserves and more bonds It will simply do that transaction. By swapping the monetary instruments into what it wants. The amount of US treasuries in the economy the FED is monitoring on a daily basis.
So here is the real kicker ….
Say the US treasury has been monitoring its spending for a month. Next week it needs another $20 billion in its treasury account so that it doesn’t end up with a zero balance. The Treasury tells the FED it is going to issue $20 billion treasury bonds next month.
The FED says hang on a minute we have a pretty nice balance between reserves and treasuries at the moment. We would like to keep the balance of reserves and bonds the way it is. As it helps us to hit our overnight interest rate target.
The FED says to the treasury if you sell those $20 billion treasuries it will take $20 billions worth of reserves out of the system as the reserves are swapped for the treasuries. So what we the FED are going to do is, an hour before the auction is we are going to buy up $ 20 billion worth of US treasuries that are in circulation in the private sector. So that the private sector now has an additional $20 billion worth of new reserve balances.
The FED might have even done it as a repo as the private sector the primary dealers might have liked what balance of reserves and bonds they already had. So the FED gave the primary dealers a little sugar on top an extra basis point of interest here and there.
So now when the treasury auction happens the FED has just given the primary dealers an hour before the auction an extra $ 20 billion in reserves. So that they can buy the $ 20 billion of US treasuries the treasury is wanting to issue.
a) So the Primary dealers buy the US treasuries and now the treasury has $20 billion in its account.
b) The FED provided the funds to the primary dealers so they could purchase the treasuries.
So now the treasury spends the $20 billion into the economy. Which immediately creates an extra $ 20 billion worth of reserve balances.
So the FED now goes back to the original repo deal with the primary dealers and reverses it and does a reverse repo and buys back the $ 20 billion of US treasuries and thus removes the $ 20 billion excess reserves that the treasury spending created.
So what just happened ?
The US treasury got the $20 billion it wanted. The FED got the balance of reserves and bonds It wanted as nothing changed to make it easier to hit its overnight interest rate. The primary dealers were the middle man that earned all the sugar on top. The primary dealers portfolios remain unchanged.
$20 billion was created out of thin air for the treasury. The primary dealers were given the funds to buy The auction. The FED provides the funds if it wants to. Buy the bonds if it wants to or run an interday overdraft if it wants to using the ways and means account.
Are you still with me ? You understand that yes ?
I think we’re you go wrong is you think the dividing line is between the government and US.
When the reality is there are a number of layers before it even gets to that stage of the government and ourselves and the secondary market.
The US treasury and the FED work hand in glove every step of the way with the primary dealers even before it gets to that stage. The FED can simply buy or swap what the US treasury issues so no a good or a service is not even involved at that point. The private sector aren’t even in the room at that point. The stage that you think everything happy hasn’t arrived yet.
So as you can see the claim you made in your original post is bunkum. Always was bunkum and a myth. There’s ALWAYS somebody to buy or swap the bonds in the primary market. Including the FED buying or swapping or selling what the US treasury issued. It is a CLOSED shop and doesn’t open up until we get to the secondary markets.
There could be at least a dozen different transaction layers with repos, reverse repos etc, etc even before they reach where YOU thinking the dividing line is between the government and ourselves. You have simply skipped this part of the process.
It is a fallacy of composition to state that dealers will shun US treasuries.
a) They hold deposits at the FED called reserves. In aggregate, they can’t get rid of these deposits. Banks can only move them to other banks.
b) In aggregate, they have only one alternative to holding US treasuries: hold floating rate debt with the government in the form of bank reserves.
The dealers choose US treasuries for the same reasons that Japan and China hold US treasuries rather than holding a floating reserve balance. They earn from it.
Hope this helps !

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Aug 7 2023 10:20 utc | 227

Echo Chamber | Aug 7 2023 10:20 utc | 228
here is the u$$a federal reserve balance sheet ‘assets’ history.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
note the roughly $2 trillion in reverse repo is not include, this chart is treasuries and bank paper exchanged to throw cash into the economy, and keep interest low on treasuries and banks with reserves.
note spring 2020!
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
this is m2 money supply… tracks the other history.
it is all policy and collusion!
free markets in u44a are myth.
old saying ‘don’t fight the fed’, you merely need an ear on the secret plans

Posted by: paddy | Aug 7 2023 10:40 utc | 229

In general I don’t think RF is taking hits on account of them transgressing some spoken or unspoken agreement but the issue of these “deconfliction” channels is an interesting one.
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 7 2023 10:19 utc | 227

The problem is that many thousands of Russian lives have been lost because of the Kremlin’s refusal to deal with this issue.
What is NATO going to do if ISR assets actively aiding Ukraine are disabled? Launch the nukes? No, they are going to go home with their tails tucked between their legs.
As I am tired of repeating, it still looks like the Kremlin is looking for some kind of a deal, which is why it is avoiding “escalation”.
But if you are a Russian soldier looking at this, you are not at all happy with the Kremlin because clearly the Kremlin values NATO drones and the lives of NATO soldiers inside Ukraine (who still haven’t been exterminated down to the last man, as it is fully in the Kremlin’s power to do, very far from it) more than yours. And Russian solders (and a growing fraction of civilians) are in fact quite mad about it, but you never hear from them.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 7 2023 10:47 utc | 231

shаdοwbanned | Aug 7 2023 9:54 utc | 222
real men/she/xhe/them use nothing less than 20kt sub-surface burst, deny real estate for 10000 years!
yes you do bs!

Posted by: paddy | Aug 7 2023 10:49 utc | 233

Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 7 2023 6:00 utc | 201
By the way during the financial crises in 2008.
When the UK government stepped in to save Bradford and Bingly they done it using the ways and means account.
The Ways and Means Account is just an infinite overdraft with the Central Bank, and it grows over time to balance the net-savings of the private sector just as US treasuries stock does now.
The US Treasury can simply stop issuing any US treasuries. Any funding of private pensions in payment should be done by offering annuities at National Savings, which would also have the neat side effect of ‘confiscating’ net savings and making the deficit go down.
It’s irrelevant what interest the FED charges on the ‘Ways and Means’ account since any profit the FED makes from it goes back to the US treasury anyway.
You know moving blips from the left pocket to the right pocket and the right pocket to the left pocket of the government. Easy peasy lemon squeezy.
So the interest rate on the ways and means account could be 50% if that gives the necessary level of satisfaction to mainstream economists and those of little brain. As the government is just paying interest to itself.
What you have is a standard intra-group loan account between a principal entity (US Treasury) and its wholly-owned subsidiary. Normally those sort of loans are interest free for the fairly obvious reason that interest charging is utterly pointless, and they are perpetual for the same reason. Rolling over is totally pointless.
Any term money can then be issued to the commercial banks directly by the FED – up to three month $ bills.
No borrowing, no issuing of US treasuries as the balancing item,none of this nobody is going to buy the debt nonsense. Blah, blah, blah , blah , blah.
If you are a member of a pension scheme then the savings of the current generation, plus the interest on US Treasuries and any income from the other assets owed pay the pensions of the current generation of pensioners. They are all, in effect, private taxation schemes that circulate money around the system.
You’ll note that when there was a threat of people failing to save in pensions, the government introduced compulsory retirement saving – which is of course a privatised hypothecated tax.
So in essence rather than the assets of a pension scheme being used to purchase US treasuries, the assets would be used to purchase an annuity from the government dedicated to an individual. The result is that rather than the private pension companies receiving US treasuries income from the state, to then pass onto the pensioner, the state would cut out the middleman (and their cut) and pay the pensioner directly as an addition to the state pension. ( granny bonds)
Job done all the nonsense and myths done away with with a stroke of a pen. Back to using the ways and means account like the good old days rather than issuing US treasuries as debt.
There’s a whole private pension industry out there literally doing absolutely nothing of any real value. They can’t provide a guaranteed income in retirement without state backing in the form of treasuries. Just So these parasites can take a big chunk of your pension.
So what is exactly the point of having them?
Are you still with me ? You understand this yes ?

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Aug 7 2023 10:52 utc | 235

Thank you for doing that review of Simp’s possible futures. I was going to check those early posts to see if they were ‘questionable’ as you suggested but found it too overwhelming so I bailed.
This the problem with predicting the future. Almost anything can happen.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Aug 7 2023 10:27 utc | 229

It wouldn’t be a problem if he wasn’t following The Saker’s pattern of regularly taking shots at the “2D bloggers-grifters” and generally making lots of such self-discrediting comments.
Sure, it’s a good aggregator of information, but in terms of the value of the analysis presented, it is clearly not very high if it has been so catastrophically wrong for so long.
People get easily tricked into confusing quantity for quality — he writes long articles with a lot of facts in them and that makes it look like he really knows what he is talking about. And it satisfies the cravings of a certain category of people who desperately need the SMO to be this battle of good vs. evil in which they are on the side of the good guys and the good guys are strong.
But what is the actual track record? Does it look like he knows anything beyond what is public information? Is he even Russian with information on the ground (quite clearly not — I have not seen him share that kind of info even once).
The reality is that the good guys do exist, but they are not in power, they are completely marginalized in Russia, and it is some absolute scumbags in power who are ready to sell their own parents and kids into slavery if it furthers their business interests.
It will take much more effort and I don’t have the time now, but in principle one can also go back and revisit what I was posting back around that same time here — it was certainly a lot of complains about there is no serious effort to end the war, how the missile strikes aren’t achieving anything because they are not hitting the truly important targets, and how there is no force being amassed for an offensive.
Who was more correct in the end?

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 7 2023 10:57 utc | 237

Money is NOT debt.
It is rather the marker of one.
Before money existed, debt existed on the market.
What is debt then?
The memory of an exchange between parties taking place over time.
I.e. exchange of cattle against future crop.
You quickly need a marker of that exchange – or one party will forget soon, guess which.
That is when money did appear.
It was decentralized. They used shells – cauries – in desert countries far from the sea.
A marker, just like the icon of an app on your phone is not the app itself but a marker (or a pointer) of it.
This allows for all the prestige that occurs in finance and accounting.
The number games are about the money, the true debt is elsewhere, look at the other hand maybe.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Aug 7 2023 11:12 utc | 239

@Giyane | Aug 7 2023 11:01 utc | 239
I took the time yesterday to re-watch his 1H 50m lecture on Victoria Nuland from March 2022 (linked in previous Ukraine thread). It provides a consistent explanation for the insanity that is happening. The part with expensive men’s clubs in Kiev had faded from my memory, but the refresher got me thinking that it might be an important explanation for the apparent irrational decision making.
Apropos irrational

Ukraine’s military spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
https://t.me/grahamwphillips/1019

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 7 2023 11:18 utc | 241

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 7 2023 11:18 utc | 243
Sorry, general Bakshi, not Badhrakumar.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 7 2023 11:19 utc | 243

@shadowbanned – good work in verification (or non-verification) of Simplicius’ past predictions.
@Echo Chamber – Nice work as well. A couple of “food for thought” issues:
1. The Fed can always buy up treasuries if there is not enough demand from the primary dealers, or organic buyers. But, there is a limit, as shown by the Bank of Japan. Once they get to around 50% of the total treasury market, they’ve essentially “cornered it” and everyone will sell into their bid. That results in a dead bond market, like Japan. Nobody in their right mind buys Japanese bonds, because the yield is so low. What that does to the international system of finance, I have no idea, but it would probably not be good for King Dollar.
2. China does have options besides buying US treasuries with excess trade dollars. They can lend those dollars out to African countries, in loans with hard assets (ports, silver mines) as collateral, and take repayment in Euros, or some other currency. Or they could buy gold. I believe they’re doing this now, as the amount of treasuries held by China has been in steady decline despite economic growth. This is probably why US officials are in a rage.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 7 2023 11:21 utc | 245

What is debt then?
The memory of an exchange between parties taking place over time.
I.e. exchange of cattle against future crop.
You quickly need a marker of that exchange – or one party will forget soon, guess which.
That is when money did appear.

It is a bit more complex … it was rather made to appear when strangers entered the equation, e.g. when passing armies had to be fed.
Graeber is still the best source on the subject.

Posted by: Erast Fandorin | Aug 7 2023 11:34 utc | 247

watcher | Aug 7 2023 11:14 utc | 241
Thank you, shadowbanned’s “WW3 NOW!” schtick is wearing on me, too. I’m starting to think his “overthrow Putin now” is the real message he or his sponsors are keen on.
And any chance that in this war thread people could stop with the 3 pages of monetary theory? I studied economics and I’m glazing over so lord knows what it does to others.
Ukraine former MP killed on the front.
https://kyivindependent.com/former-mp-killed-in-action/

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 7 2023 11:52 utc | 249

I note the writer of that Kiev Independent story is American, the “paper” is funded by Canada and the editor is at the University of Chicago.
“Abbey Fenbert is a news editor at the Kyiv Independent. She is a freelance writer, editor, and playwright with an MFA from Boston University. Abbey served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Ukraine from 2008-2011.”

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 7 2023 11:58 utc | 251

History does not repeat itself.
It is a tree that is cut down,
And grows again.
— Brother Nathanael

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 7 2023 12:02 utc | 253

@217 “So, why doesn’t the RF make the USA eat it over the Global Hawks, what sword of Damocles is over Russia’s head?”
Russia is patient. They realize that the SMO may turn into WW3. So they let Global Hawks etc. do thier thing-the pinpricks they manage on Russian positions is nothing compared to what the Russians can learn from FUKUS tactics.

Posted by: canuck | Aug 7 2023 12:07 utc | 255

Russia is patient. They realize that the SMO may turn into WW3. So they let Global Hawks etc. do thier thing-the pinpricks they manage on Russian positions is nothing compared to what the Russians can learn from FUKUS tactics.
Posted by: canuck | Aug 7 2023 12:07 utc | 255
NATO being lured into the trap of developing and relying on systems and methods based on full access to ISR, AWOCS etc? A situation that could end in the event of conflict creep leaving them blind.
Unless you believe that there are mirror cells in NATO trying to work without said ISR.

Posted by: JohninMK | Aug 7 2023 12:17 utc | 257

https://abcnews.go.com/International/woman-arrested-plot-kill-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine/story?id=102065597
Woman arrested in plot to kill Zelensky. Either there are no men left to take care of that or they don’t have the cojones.

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 7 2023 12:21 utc | 259

GD Bakshi has very interesting commentary on the entire RF SMO.
Are there Any posters here that have opinions on his Ukraine views?

Posted by: william paul | Aug 7 2023 12:28 utc | 261

So if the Ukrainian SUs can fly around unmolested, six of them, and they can fire 12 Stormy Mondays, but the Russians have the biggest baddest air defen…..my ass. And when the F16s show up, how would Russia find them, esp when they fly from 3rd party countries that suffer no SMO consequence……now makes sense when I read Donbas LOC reports of Ukrainian aircraft bombing their positions.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 7 2023 12:45 utc | 263

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 7 2023 5:59 utc | 200
*** Google Butcha.***
Oh yes, let’s all go read NATO projection and propaganda.
Incidentally, these bastions of integrity at NATO are now increasing their Porton Down bio-chemical warfare lab capabilities since they lost so many of their labs in Kiev-Ukraine. You know, the bio-warfare development labs that were of course mere “conspiracy theory” — except that the US government subsequently admitted they were real.
NATO, of which Google and the rest of the US social-media / internet infrastructure is a key element when it comes to the Establishment’s selective lies, amplification and suppression of data. Btw, do you still think the US-imperial “New World Order” as was cited by Kissinger, BUsh etc. is just a conspiracy theory? (don’t forget, you’d be told it was even while personnel at the top of the US-empire were speaking about it by name)
And does — or ever did — the Bilderberg Group exist? Because that too was firmly denied and mainstream media hidden for decades. As were US multinationals with factories in the USSR … till suddenly, they did exist after all.
But never mind, the Western Political Establishment would not tell you anything untrue, or deny anything that’s true, ever.

Posted by: Cynic | Aug 7 2023 12:56 utc | 265

Arch Bungle @ 256

When outnumbered, confronted by many enemies, seek to channel your enemies along a single path so that you only fight one of them at a time.

Most convincing explanation yet, but what I was getting at is that no matter how expensive or important for ISR a drone is just a piece of tech, whether costing $10 mil or $500 who cares, shoot them down if only for target practice.
Somehow it’s perfectly OK to blow up each other’s big expensive MBTs, helicopters, and fighters with the poor grunts inside but there some sort of gentleman’s agreement not to fuck with each other’s fancy college boy ISR toys. If I was Russia I’d equalize the drone universe, get it over with, after that comes the AWACs and the satellites and the USA will be more mindful.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 7 2023 13:10 utc | 267

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 7 2023 13:10 utc | 267

Most convincing explanation yet, but what I was getting at is that no matter how expensive or important for ISR a drone is just a piece of tech, whether costing $10 mil or $500 who cares, shoot them down if only for target practice.

Plausible.
An alternative explanation: It may be useful to keep the enemy’s drones and surveillance equipment around unmolested so better to feed them false signals.
We know drones have been compromised before. Most notable example that springs to mind is Hezbollah’s compromise of the IDF drone camera surveilling Rafik Hariris motorcade. They kept the fact that they’d hacked the drone and had it’s footage a secret for quite some time after …
Who’s to say Russia isn’t compromising every drone that swoops by ?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 7 2023 13:43 utc | 269

YetAnotherAnon | Aug 7 2023 11:52 utc | 250
*** And any chance that in this war thread people could stop with the 3 pages of monetary theory? I studied economics and I’m glazing over so lord knows what it does to others.***
Trouble is, the globalised extortion economic system does underpin so much of what happens where wars are concerned. It is a key part of both enforcing the “NATO” system plus a major motivation of the warmongers (corporate and individual) and their supporters.
So it cannot be ignored … because if it is, then by default the present rotten system continues unchallenged. And its side wins…

Posted by: Cynic | Aug 7 2023 13:54 utc | 271

CONCERN/HATE TROLLING of RUSSIA in latest posts of user “shаdοwbanned” in Ukraine-open-thread-2023-187 [Aug 6 2023 20:17 – Aug 7 2023 1:08 utc]:
1.
“Here they [RUSSIA] are putting out this announcement to create the IMPRESSION that they are doing something. They are not, they are CUCKING AS USUAL. [?!]” (Aug 6 2023 20:17 utc)
2.
“But if the Soviets didn’t take care of the problem, how do we expect the CURRENT NEOLIBERAL TRAITORS [insinuation that Putin’s government is STILL controlled by Jeltsin’s gangsters], who BETRAYED the country COUNTLESS TIMES in the last 35-40 years [sic! the same as previous], and were also ready to HAND CRIMEA back to Ukraine LAST MARCH [WTF??], to do it?” (Aug 6 2023 20:25 utc)
3.
“Didn’t need the airport to bring troops after the first couple days, they [RUSSIA] had a land corridor. Which they used to bring that INFAMOUS ENDLESS CONVOY [of Western lies] and PARK IT [!!] outside Kiev.” (Aug 6 2023 20:27 utc)
4.
“But with the CURRENT LEADERSHIP [aka “neoliberal traitors” of 2.] in the Kremlin OUR [Oops — PLURAL: shadowbanned one of THEM!] hopes for such decisive action are slim.” (Aug 6 2023 21:11 utc)
5.
“What changed? … NATO weapons flooded in. That is what changed. … Had that not been allowed, the AFU would have long collapsed. … Which once again brings us to the question why NATO weapons were allowed to flood in …” (Aug 7 2023 0:44 utc)
6.
“Unless they [NATO] hug the Romanian border (which they can’t do if they are flying from Poland and landing quickly to refuel inside UA, because the airfields are not on the Romanian border), an S-400 or MiG-31s with R-37Ms in the southwestern corner of Belarus should be able to take care of the problem. So WHY THAT NOT BEING DONE [by RUSSIA]?” (Aug 7 2023 0:50 utc)
7.
“Still, as I SAID [WHO TF cares?], there was a strong PRO-RUSSIA movement in Galicia [WHEN?], but then Taras Shevchenko became cool [NONSENSE]. But this was Galicia under Austrian rule. In Kharkov, Odessa, Kiev and everywhere in between people were speaking Russian and Ukrainian nationalism was a totally marginal movement.[SO WHAT?]” (Aug 7 2023 1:08 utc)

Posted by: LongCovid | Aug 7 2023 14:10 utc | 273

Woman arrested in plot to kill Zelensky.
@ Eighthman | Aug 7 2023 12:21 utc | 260
Interpreted in the usual manner, this story strongly implies the presence of a “false flag” plot to kill Zelensky, and then blame it on Russia, like everything else.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Aug 7 2023 14:26 utc | 275

Not Russian style to do this type of sabotage (grain elevator explosion), but the Ukrainians might and try to blame Russia. Putin is supposed to meet Erdogan to discuss grain deal among other things at some point in the future and the Ukrainians would no doubt like to paint Russia as a bad faith actor and pressure Turkey to take a harder line against Russia.

Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 7 2023 14:36 utc | 277

Google Butcha.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 7 2023 5:59 utc | 200
although war seemingly always has some rape and unnecessary brutality, much of the ukronazi propoganda has been shown to be false. like their big brother, the u.s., when they accuse russia of something, it is they who are doing it, and there is much evidence of their own brutality.
russian women said they took organs out of women after they raped them so they die slowly and in agony. showed images of the women. nowadays, propoganda is everywhere, but the west is the master of doing the awful thing and then staging it to look like the other side did, sometimes so badly they are almost immediately called out.
the bucha “massacre” is one of those. i didn’t save the links, but if you listen to some of the people cited here or watch rt, you will see film of how the people “massacred” actually wore the white arm bands of russian supporters, among other things.
that’s why the west has stopped yelling about it.
we all believe our side, though, i suppose, so i understand why you wouldn’t believe this. if you are sincere in your hatred of violence, i would ask you to watch some of the documentaries on rt and to stay around here.

Posted by: polarbear4 | Aug 7 2023 14:48 utc | 279

sb@279
The DNR did not have full control of Mariupol in 2014. With more overt Russian support they might have seized it, but Russia was not prepared to support the partition of Ukraine in 2014. Many wish they would have, and Putin has since admitted that in hindsight perhaps they should have. At that point Russia preferred the possibility of a neutral, friendly neighbor and pursued that goal. What’s done is done, so enough with the repeated belly aching and tiresome second guessing.

Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 7 2023 15:17 utc | 281

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 7 2023 14:13 utc | 275

In those days drone video feeds were not encrypted. Anyone who stumbled on it could watch. Hezbollah actively looked for the IDF drone feeds to see if they could understand what the IDF might be up to.

In those days they claimed their feeds were encrypted.
It turned out that the encryption was often disabled.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the same situation persists.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 7 2023 15:36 utc | 283

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 7 2023 15:36 utc | 284
It is true that encryption sometimes off when it was eventually added.
You might read “Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel” by Nicholas Blanford

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 7 2023 15:58 utc | 285

Ukraine has lost it is just how many more dead and wounded they want!
Already over 1 million dead or severely wounded.
How many Ukrainian MP’s and rich kids have fought?
If the EU and the US deported all them back Ukraine might be able to form a 4h army to be slaughtered but at least it would be the people who sent the poor to their deaths!
The sooner someone puts a round in Z boy the better.

Posted by: Peace | Aug 7 2023 16:17 utc | 287

@ unimperator | Aug 7 2023 11:19 utc | 244
@ william paul | Aug 7 2023 12:28 utc | 262
GM Bakshi tells it as it is, with nothing much to add or shave off, up to the prediction on how this conflict ends.
It can only end with unconditional surrender and meeting all RF security demands. Everything else leads to unstable situation that might rinse and repeat in a few years again. RF and China do not want that. There is nothing and nobody on the other side to say or complain about the terms under they will have to comply with. NATO is done with.
Thanks for the link.

Posted by: whirlX | Aug 7 2023 16:27 utc | 289

@ 279
Stalin was a Georgian, possibly fathered by a Pole (Przewalski?)

Posted by: fanto | Aug 7 2023 16:52 utc | 291

The Russian federation has no control the western borders of Ukraine.
Therefore it has no capacity to interdict weapons flow into Ukraine.
It’s not as if they had a choice and chose not to block weapons flow.
It’s the fact that no state has the power to hermetically seal the borders of a country it is at war with.
Maybe, but they should have been bombing every airport and railway hub in Western Ukraine.

Posted by: Englishman | Aug 7 2023 16:59 utc | 293

I generally read B’s commentary, then only scan comments for “http” to see if there’s anything I’ve missed; so may have missed this. But is there any discussion about where the sea drones are coming from, now most Ukrainian ports have been destroyed, how they’re controlled, and what can be done about them ? If they’re not from the Ukraine, there’s a good chance they’re launched from Romania, perhaps following harbor tugs or coastal traffic. In Afghanistan, U.S. arial drones were controlled by satellite in real time, from the U.S., so sea drones may be also, or maybe from the UK since they’re UK manufacture. Their transponders need be no larger than the Star Link transponders on American cars, 2 inches by 6, for them to surface periodically, ping the current satellite, and get the most recent targeting instructions. Software similar to that guiding low-flying cruise missiles should be adequate to guide them to the the target, after which they’d surface enough for real-time targeting.
What can be done, without starting an overt war with Nato, is less obvious. Novorossisk is suppose to have a squadron of six very-quiet diesel-elecrtic subs. Maybe one could be on stationed mid-way between the Crimea and the Romania, at the limit Russia’s economic zone, to silently patrol for sea drones, destroy them with high-speed “Shkval” torpedoes if detected, or less-expensive ordinary torpedoes if practical. Maybe a Peresvet laser system, designed to blind recon satellites for road-mobile ICBM’s, could be deployed to the Crimea, to blind the satellites controlling sea drones, which should be identifiable from attack timing. The U.S. would likely denounce that as “unprofessional,” but it might do the trick. In the meantime, the sea drones are well on their way to establishing a de-facto blockade of Russia’s Black Sea ports, until they can be counteracted.

Posted by: Seward | Aug 7 2023 17:18 utc | 295

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Aug 7 2023 14:47 utc | 279
Interesting comment & analysis!
Thx
Only confirms that 5d chessmaster messed all up and innocent
People paying with their blood
He is the biggest Russian problem!
Everything he touched or touches ends up in a desaster
The grain minsk NS1+2 dealmaker
Not only chessmaster but also manager & amigo for ukronazi oligarchs

Posted by: SlowSoft | Aug 7 2023 17:48 utc | 297

Posted by: Seward | Aug 7 2023 17:18 utc | 296 “Maybe a Peresvet laser system, designed to blind recon satellites”
What is a recon satellite these days? Does that include anything linked to the Starlink system?
Number of satellites in orbit – major countries 2022
Published by Statista Research Department, Apr 13, 2023
Of the 5,465 active artificial satellites orbiting the Earth as of April 30, 2022, 3,433 belong to the United States. This is by far the largest number of any single country, with their nearest competitor, China, accounting for only 541.

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 7 2023 17:53 utc | 299