Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 23, 2023

Sunk Cost Fallacy In Ukraine

The U.S. military is continuing its criticism of Ukraine's military strategy.

Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say - NY Times

The main goal of the counteroffensive is to cut off Russian supply lines in southern Ukraine by severing the so-called land bridge between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. But instead of focusing on that, Ukrainian commanders have divided troops and firepower roughly equally between the east and the south, the U.S. officials said.

As a result, more Ukrainian forces are near Bakhmut and other cities in the east than are near Melitopol and Berdiansk in the south, both far more strategically significant fronts, officials say.

American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process.

The criticism is correct. The attempt to regain Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) is wrong. But the conclusion from it, to push more forces towards the south, is - in my view - false.

The Deployment Map shows that there are significantly more Ukrainian units in the east than in the south.


bigger

It was wrong for Ukraine to defend Bakhmut, a low laying road and rail center surrounded by hills. As soon as the hills had been taken by Wagner fighters Bakhmut was destined to fall into their hands. For months the government in Kiev pressed its military to hold the city. There was even some pop-song published that said "Bakhmut will hold". According to Wagner the Ukrainian lost some 70,000 men in the hopeless defense of Bakhmut. Wagner lost some 40,000 while taking it. A high price for both sides. But paying it could have been avoided by Ukraine if it had pulled back just a few miles to the west where a chain of hills around Chasiv Yar would have been a much more favorite defensive position.

To combine the much ballyhooed counter-offensive towards the south with a new push to regain Bakhmut was a serious mistake. The leadership of Ukraine had fallen for the sunk cost fallacy:

The sunk cost fallacy is the tendency for people to continue an endeavor or course of action even when abandoning it would be more beneficial. Because we have invested our time, energy, or other resources, we feel that it would all have been for nothing if we quit.

As a result, we make irrational or suboptimal decisions. The sunk cost fallacy can be observed in various contexts, such as business, relationships, and day-to-day decisions.

President Zelensky had promised that Bakhmut will not fall. After it had fallen he promised to regain it. But despite the high amount of forces used in both attempts there has been no progress. The Russian defense lines have held up. During 11 weeks of fighting only one small town near Bakhmut, Klichivka, has been retaken by Ukrainian troops. What the U.S. military wants Ukraine to do is to concentrate all forces on the southern front:

Only with a change of tactics and a dramatic move can the tempo of the counteroffensive change, said one U.S. official, who like the other half a dozen Western officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Another U.S. official said the Ukrainians were too spread out and needed to consolidate their combat power in one place.

Nearly three months into the counteroffensive, the Ukrainians may be taking the advice to heart, especially as casualties continue to mount and Russia still holds an edge in troops and equipment.

In a video teleconference on Aug. 10, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; his British counterpart, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin; and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, urged Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, to focus on one main front. And, according to two officials briefed on the call, General Zaluzhnyi agreed.

I smell another sunk cost fallacy here, this time by the U.S. military. It has invested in 'combined arms' thinking for more than 30 years. It pushed Ukraine to use this form of fighting in its southern attempts. That failed with high losses because Ukraine does not have air supremacy and too few means to break through the wide Russian mine fields. The U.S. military is now pushing for a new attempt that will again apply the already failed strategy with more troops.

The Ukrainian attacks around Bakhmut are to stop. Ukraine must concentrate on defending Chasiv Yar and the chain of hills around it. That will certainly relieve some troops which can be moved elsewhere. There are for example currently four artillery brigades near Bakhmut but only two on each of the two attempts in the southern direction. Adding two from Bakhmut might well help.

However, the progress on both attempts in the south is small. The length of the frontline that allow for breakthroughs and where fighting occurs is just a few miles. There are only few towns in the area that can accommodate and hide deployed forces. Pushing more forces down south will create dangerous concentrations that will be easy for the Russians to detect and to bomb and destroy.

I had previously explained why combined arms had become the favorite U.S. tactic and why it only works against forces that have a lack of air defenses. Combined arms attacks necessitate air supremacy. There is no way for Ukraine to achieve that.

The troops who are now around Bakhmut are not the best equipped of the Ukrainian army. They all have been fighting for months and with significant losses. To push these units, which lack arms and men, into a combined arms attack is a serious mistake.

There are military alternatives to attacking Russian defense lines.

The best is for Ukraine to move towards defense. Build multiple strong defensive lines along chains of hills and other favorite landscape features. Put roving commando troops in front of the lines to harass any attackers before they reach the defense line. Put the rest of the troops into the defense line and into reserve. It would be a mirror of Russia's current strategy that has worked so well for it.

Russia wants to take Donets. Defending it is the best way for Ukraine to make that costly. Running attacks against well prepared Russian defense lines is falling for a Russian attrition strategy. It will only decimate Ukrainian troops and equipment.

There are other alternatives which are even better.

Try to get to to a ceasefire or at least start negotiations for peace. A forever war is what the U.S. might want but it is the worst situation for Ukraine to be in:

Even if Kyiv does stage a successful operation against Russian forces in the future, it’s not clear it will lead to an end of the war. For one, Moscow may decide to launch its own counter-offensive to erase whatever gains Ukrainian forces have made, starting perhaps an endless cycle of military toing-and-froing. Or we could have a repeat of last fall, when Kyiv and its NATO backers, emboldened by the major gains made in Ukraine’s September counter-offensive, rejected the idea of talks to instead pursue “total victory,” at ultimately disastrous cost.

Even now, Ukrainian leaders and many of its Western supporters still maintain the maximalist goals of restoring the country’s pre-2014 borders, which includes retaking Crimea. 

Ironically, a prolonged war is exactly what at least some NATO officials had hoped for from the start in order to trap Russia in its own Afghanistan-like blunder, with the New York Times reporting in March 2022 that the administration “seeks to help Ukraine lock Russia in a quagmire.”

But a prolonged war will not be good for Ukraine, which has already suffered breathtakingly vast human and economic costs from a protracted war, and which falls further and further into debt with every month. And it will not be good for the rest of the world either, feeding into worldwide cost-of-living shocks while carrying the already twice-averted possibility of a catastrophic NATO-Russia war that could turn nuclear.

To push more troops into the southern attacks will, as the U.S. military admits, create many more losses in material and men. Ukraine can afford neither. While such an attack might make minor gains a chance to break through the prepared Russian defense lines, which it still has not reached, is hardly there.

An alternative is to change the strategy to do defensive actions.

An even better way is to sue for peace.

But the U.S. will not allow for that. The Biden administration has fallen for its own sunk cost fallacy. It has invested so much into its proxy war against Russia, in money, material and psychologically, that it will continue to invest more even when that is unlikely to lead to a better outcome.

Peace negotiations are inevitable. Delaying them increases the cost of the inevitable defeat.

Posted by b on August 23, 2023 at 16:48 UTC | Permalink

Comments
next page »
"Try to get to to a ceasefire or at least start negotiations for peace...Peace negotiations are inevitable."

Elensky is already formulating plans to amend the Ukranazi "constitution" to make it illegal to stop at anything short of regaining Ukranazistan's 1991 borders. And in what basis would Russia negotiate? Why would it trust any negotiations? Even Putin must have by now begun to realise that his beloved Western partners are only out to cheat and rob him.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 23 2023 17:02 utc | 1

I’m also surprised that Ukraine didn’t get any where in the south. But attacking Bakhmut makes a lot of sense, it’s the only place where the Russians don’t have prepared defences.

And don’t forget about the north, where the Russians are advancing. Leaving Bakhmut and transferring troops to the south would free up troops for that offensive.

As for the the Ukrainian offensive in the south I don’t think tactics matter much. Even they managed to break through they would be open to attack from three sides. And from the air. Good luck with the cut, boys.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Aug 23 2023 17:03 utc | 2

I think there was a lot of optimism that Russia would pull back once they got bloodied again.

Still though unless both sides want more no one wins a war by staying on defence all the time.

My guess is that Russia won't quit until its got all the territories it annexed which probably means they will try ukraines defence capabilities even if they pull back into better positions. I'm not sure though they want to order any retreat anywhere though, perhaps they worry about a rout once they take a few steps back.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 23 2023 17:06 utc | 3

One is reminded of the American civil war and the alternate history armchair generals who think Lee wasted too many men and resources pushing into Maryland and Pennsylvania in 1862 and 1863 respectively, leading to the key battles of Antietam and Gettysburg. Yes, a defensive war would have been better in purely military terms, but as Clausewitz noted, war is politics by other means. The confederacy, like Ukraine, was dependent on the prospects of both foreign support and a crack in the will of the Union/Russia to fight. It demands a constant string of initiatives which attempt to land a critical blow to achieve those ends.

Posted by: Cesare | Aug 23 2023 17:08 utc | 4

Wagner aircraft enroute from St. Petersburg to Moscow "crashes".

Or shot down?

Who was on it?

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 23 2023 17:08 utc | 5

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 23 2023 17:02 utc | 1

I think a prerequisite for negotiations is that Zelensky is removed. And ties to the west are cut. How that is to come about is a bit of a mystery, but this war has surprised us before.

A new constitution — aka ‘denazifcation’ — will be a required outcome of the negotiations. In fact they will be little more than surrender by an other name, but they will still be important since Russia doesn’t want to occupy western Ukrain.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Aug 23 2023 17:09 utc | 6

BTW: please don’t get into a discussion with eco chamber. Their postings (no, I don’t think it’s one person) ruin the threads and echo chambers answer them selves. By definition!

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Aug 23 2023 17:12 utc | 7

B says:

Ukrainian lost some 70,000 men in the hopeless defense of Bakhmut. Wagner lost some 40,000 while taking it.

That is not the impression that we were given. I really wonder what the truth is.

Anyway:
@ Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 23 2023 17:02 utc | 1

I cant imagine that Russia is going to allow cease fire for negotiations.
It seems like some just don't get it - and likely never will.

Posted by: jared | Aug 23 2023 17:14 utc | 8

America's difficulty is that it has whipped up such a moral frenzy about Russia it makes it very difficult to walk that back and make a deal.

There's a reason for the old joke that isn't really a joke "it's only a war crime if you lose". Declaring someone a war criminal and then making a deal with them afterwards is very difficult, I don't know if it's ever happened. Such accusations are typically only made by powers confident they won't ever need to make such a deal

Posted by: John English | Aug 23 2023 17:17 utc | 9

Posted by: jared | Aug 23 2023 17:14 utc | 8

So, please explain to someone who just doesn’t get that this war will not end in the same way almost every major war in history ended: how will it actually end?

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Aug 23 2023 17:20 utc | 10

Your second suggestion, i.e. "(t)ry to get a ceasefire or at least start negotiations for peace" is the only viable one at this point. You can be sure that the first alternative you mentioned has been factored into the Russian planning. Ukraine is screwed. Only a coup d'état against the Ukraine regime by maybe some patriotic elements in the Army has any chance of saving whatever is left of the country.

Posted by: Steve | Aug 23 2023 17:20 utc | 11

Breaking news:

A private jet belonging to Prigozhin has crashed in Tver, allegedly with eyewitnesses saying it was shot down by Russian air defence. Conflicting claims on whether Prigozhin himself was on board. Tver is northwest of Moscow and very, very far from Ukranazistan so any innocent mistaken identity shooting down is out of the question.

If Prigozhin is really dead and if the plane was really shot down nothing will convince any sane person that it was not deliberate murder at the orders of Shoigu/Gerasimov.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 23 2023 17:20 utc | 12

Reported on board the "crashed" aircraft:

Yevgeny Prigozhin
Dmitry Utkin

Russian air defense *shot down the plane*

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 23 2023 17:21 utc | 13

If Ukraine moves their force from Kleschevka, Artomovsk to Orekhov or Urozhaine in attempt to continue attacks there, it will inevitably invite Russia to increase pressure expanding out from Kleschevka and generally the zone of control around Artemovsk. And that would probably not produce any result in the south either.

That is the definition of Zugzwang, or another term for losing the war. Agree that they should be maybe shrinking at this point and abandon attempts to hold east of Oskil river, which is a far bridgehead and very difficult for AFU side. But what do I know.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 23 2023 17:21 utc | 14

@John English 10:

Muhammad Farrah Aideed in Somalia, after his forces successfully beat the Amerikastani Empire at the Battle of Mogadishu.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 23 2023 17:22 utc | 15

LOL I suppose we've seen the news on Priggo. I'm sure it was just an accident.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 23 2023 17:24 utc | 16

Prigozhin dead

And he was in Africa 2 days ago ?

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 23 2023 17:25 utc | 17

I'm not sure what all this peace talks is about. Russia won't offer until they get to the Dniper river and have odsessa but if Ukrainian useful idiots want to attack let them and they die at much more precipitous rate than Russians. If Ukraine retreats and dig in so be it. Russia has the 10:1 shell and missile advantage and will get knocked out of fortifications a km at a time. This war is a forgone conclusion IMO that Russia will own half of Ukraine it's only a matter of tactics how it get's there.

Posted by: SteveM | Aug 23 2023 17:25 utc | 18

RT Breaking News.

Wagner chief among passengers on crashed plane – officials
Evgeny Prigozhin was listed on board the Embraer Legacy that crashed with no survivors, authorities have reported

Wagner chief among passengers on crashed plane – officials

A private jet traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg crashed on Wednesday in Russia’s Tver Region. The Russian Emergencies Ministry said all 10 people on board had died. Rosaviation has since said that Evgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Private Military Company, was listed among the passengers.

------------------------------------------------
OK, it is conspiracy time folks.

Posted by: Ed | Aug 23 2023 17:27 utc | 19

"Shortly after the Crash in the Tver Region, a 2nd Business Jet owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin that was heading along a similar Route from St. Petersburg landed in Moscow."

Who is on this one?

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 23 2023 17:28 utc | 20

A tedious analysis--a continuation of war by means of more war. Winning quickly will soon be the only option and should have been all along. The losses on both sides are staggering and horrible and fiddling with scenarios while allowing the Ukrainian regime to go untouched is. . . the current cowardly answer.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Aug 23 2023 17:30 utc | 21

Posted by: Ed | Aug 23 2023 17:27 utc | 20

My guess is Prigozhin will pop up giving interviews within 2 weeks. This is just another coordinated scenario to make fools out of the west.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 23 2023 17:32 utc | 22

Yes. Peace is the best option for Ukraine, but for that to happen a change of leadership is required, that actually advocates for the Ukrainian people, and is such that Russia deems it agreement capable. Don't hold your breath!

Russian forces are quite good at active defense from prepared fortifications. Ukraine lacks (among other things) the required airpower, armor, artillery, and mobile air defense necessary for a successful breakthrough attack. Obviously, short of a peace agreement, they should have assumed a defensive posture until the necessary equipment was acquired, before a counter offensive was undertaken. Assuming this was ever possible, that chance is now lost.

Posted by: Snowleopard | Aug 23 2023 17:33 utc | 23

Russia, land of a thousand intrigues, some things never change.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 23 2023 17:33 utc | 24

There is another sunk cost:

"Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; his British counterpart, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin; and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi"

To which I could add lots of other names. But those will do to start.

Richard Feynman, if my memory is correct, said something like science progresses one death at a time. Sad.

Imagine, with AI, people like that in power and immortal.

Posted by: oracle | Aug 23 2023 17:34 utc | 25

Let's see:

Russia's best field commander, Surovikin, removed.

Wagner with 50000 battle hardened troops (as Simplicius76 now himself admits) removed from the line of battle.

Prigozhin and Utkin [presumably] killed in what you don't have to be Hercule Poirot to conclude was deliberate murder.

As per the same Simplicius76's latest article, rumours that the 300000 mobilised last autumn will be demobilised.

It does seem that somebody is unwilling to win this war, doesn't it?

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 23 2023 17:36 utc | 26

Plane crashes are how superstars retire.

Otherwise they would never be able to be seen in public again without attracting unwanted attention.

"Hey, I saw Elvis in a diner the other day! O`course, it was just a guy who looked like Elvis `cuz Elvis is dead."

Yeah, I know, Elvis died of a drug overdose and not a plane crash, which means more people had to be paid to keep quiet about what really happened. But that is why plane crashes became more popular.

Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 23 2023 17:40 utc | 27

Russia has nobody to negotiate with. Can’t imagine Z capitulating, he would first run off, maybe to israel.
Zaluzhny or some such would first have to take over and clean out the legislature, only then might ukr be able to ignore the west and surrender, renouncing the western debts as odious. This would then leave ukr forced to turn east for trade/protection etc, even as the west continues funding guerilla ops (to save poor ukr) out of Poland for a while.
As for Poland, I doubt they invade, russ would ignore any alleged merger with Poland that expands nato into ukr… after all, the dreaded article 5 is voluntary, there won’t be a ‘coalition of the willing’ willing to fight the world’s most powerful military.

Posted by: John k | Aug 23 2023 17:41 utc | 28

Posted by: SteveM | Aug 23 2023 17:25 utc | 19

There will be no deal with out Russia moving its borders to the Dniper. Odessa is more complicated, because as it stands the Russians don’t have the resources to take it. Rivers are hard to cross in both directions. So it’s either a bargaining chip ( Ukraine keeps it in exchange for neutrality and true demilitarisation), or the Russians will have to undertake a second mobilisation. Which they very well could.

As for the comment above about a ceasefire, there will be none. Some western analysts want one, because they recognise that Ukraine needs to build a new military for the fourth time.
The Russians will not let them. But they will be happy to negotiate peace with the fighting ongoing. If they have some one to talk to. At present they don’t.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Aug 23 2023 17:44 utc | 29

I think we should be more careful to speculate what happened since The Readovka source points out that reports about the death of the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, are currently premature. Information about his death, as well as the death of the Wagner Group commander Dmitry Utkin, cannot be verified at the moment.

Prigozhin could have been on another plane. Previously, for purposes of conspiracy, the businessman regularly confused everyone. As the source of Readovka points out, the businessman allegedly registered on one board, and at that time boarded another plane.

Posted by: On the roof | Aug 23 2023 17:45 utc | 30

The most basic sunk cost fallacy is that we must send more soldiers to their death or the ones already killed will have died without purpose. . . ."If we don't stay and win then our soldiers will have died in vain." . . . So we get endless war.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 23 2023 17:49 utc | 31

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 23 2023 17:25 utc | 18

Yesterday Surovikin & today Prigoshin with Utkin!?
Coincidence?

Posted by: SlowSoft | Aug 23 2023 17:51 utc | 32

Glad for the article-b-, and comments.
Lately all the articles & “news” feels like a big circle. Weren’t we all talking about these things last October? Running low on ammo, manpower, Zelensky won’t talk Peace, US won’t talk Peace, give Ukraine more of everything so they can win.
Guess I’m saying, even if some “verbiage” has changed, nothing else has.

I know people think Russia will sit forever in their trenches in defense mode until Ukraine/US come to their senses, but they are obviously, after this “failed” hyped up counter offensive are still now going to get a reconstituted “5th” new army, with NATO “volunteers” and conscripts pulled off the streets and keep going another failed round.

Eventually, Medvedev will get his way, an offense will happen, Ukraine will collapse & will no longer exist as a Nation State. I’m saying that because some wars have to end with total defeat.

We’ve gotten so used to “proxy” wars, ending “politically” and these proxy states just ending up with 1/2 their nation state & the other half occupied and basically where the firing stops and that’s our idea of “peace”, that translates as to how all wars are supposed to go.

The West will never agree to a neutral Ukraine. The Baltic states will interfere will some “force” or “security arrangements” , so Russia needs to get on and finish this and prepare for the next fight. If defeated army #4 isn’t going to bring peace to the table, time to forget it.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 23 2023 17:52 utc | 33

Posted by: On the roof | Aug 23 2023 17:45 utc | 31 "I think we should be more careful to speculate what happened"

I think what happened is pretty clear. A lot of videos out now. Who was on the plane is another question. The second plane reported to have landed without incident not that long afterwards.

As you say could have not gotten on either plane.

I wonder if Prigozhin or Utkin (or any of the top people) bought any insurance that will turn up later. Of what I can't imagine though.

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 23 2023 17:53 utc | 34

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 23 2023 17:36 utc | 27

“It does seem that somebody is unwilling to win this war, doesn't it?”

You have been saying that for a year and a half, haven’t you? And during that time the Russians have defeated three USnato supported armies, haven’t they?

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Aug 23 2023 17:53 utc | 35

It looks like someone got Prigozhin: the question is was this NATO, intent on creating the impression that this Russian Caesar, this people's champion, was assassinated by a brutal and exceedingly envious regime, which is, in any case, on its last legs (a land of Caligulan palace backstabbing), or was it indeed elements of Russian government in truth?

Posted by: Ludov | Aug 23 2023 17:55 utc | 36

Yes, a defensive war would have been better in purely military terms, but as Clausewitz noted, war is politics by other means. The confederacy, like Ukraine, was dependent on the prospects of both foreign support and a crack in the will of the Union/Russia to fight. It demands a constant string of initiatives which attempt to land a critical blow to achieve those ends.

Posted by: Cesare | Aug 23 2023 17:08 utc | 4

This is a good point. Many believe that had the Nazis delayed operation Barbarossa until they had full control of Western Europe they may have been able to achieve their nefarious goals.

But, as you say, politics weigh heavy in military decision making and the Nazi leadership didn't merely use the mystery of the blood as propaganda, they actually believed that they could not lose against untermenchen Slavs, by virtue of the destiny in their blood. Aka they were nuts. They believed their own bullshit.

The Kiev regime is in a much weaker position with a very similar ideology among the leadership. Imperialism is the puppet master and it too seems to have developed a totally delusional decision making matrix.

Ultimately, Imperialism and it's Ukie stooges cannot act rationally with such an unrealistic outlook on geopolitics. Like the Nazis, they will understand one thing: defeat.

At a minimum, Russia needs an offensive to the Dneiper and Odessa to cut off the Black Sea completely. That's a reasonable goal for Russia at this stage. That would also deliver a psychological blow to imperialism that could lead to a change in thinking.

Everyone responds differently to a political argument, but the same way to a hot poker. Never tire of that quote!

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 23 2023 17:55 utc | 37

thanks b.... i like your analysis! let me put it in my own terms...

it is the usa/nato that is fighting this war with the ukraine military as its puppet.. if the ukraine military don't go along with the usa/nato agenda, then it is their problem! as long as ukrainians are used as the guinea pigs for usa/nato - all is fine...

i can't see how this works out for ukraine.. little or no air defense abilities is a severe liability for ukraine... how is ukraine supposed to make up for that? they can't.. thus the constant demand for f 16s and etc. etc..

anyway - usa/nato are using ukraine.. so is zelensky! at some point the people of ukraine will hopefully wake up to this madness and ask for something else.. the cost to them has been very high.. no consideration of this is taken into account by nato and friends... it is all about causing maximum pain to russia, but it hasn't worked out as planned..

Posted by: james | Aug 23 2023 17:55 utc | 38

@ Trubind1 | Aug 23 2023 17:52 utc | 34

i agree with you..

@ Jörgen Hassler | Aug 23 2023 17:53 utc | 36

thanks for saying that..

Posted by: james | Aug 23 2023 18:03 utc | 39

Posted by b on August 23, 2023 at 16:48 UTC | Permalink

But the U.S. will not allow for that. The Biden administration has fallen for its own sunk cost fallacy. It has invested so much into its proxy war against Russia, in money, material and psychologically, that it will continue to invest more even when that is unlikely to lead to a better outcome.
..
Peace negotiations are inevitable. Delaying them increases the cost of the inevitable defeat.
So pls. today have a short look at - that's "only" an opinion but not any of militaryly fake news, having started in Western & even RF-Mediab MSM, today .. Kept that, dated today?:

2023-08-23 - Publishg 10 AM UTC:
https://rumble.com/v3apq88-attempts-to-push-through-the-russian-defense-were-unsuccessful.-military-su.html
So Dear MoAs, Pls. start at min 13:00 - or from scratch of this video - if accessible and like it as an "opinion here" :
Why so many MoA's did not respond "clearly", what's going On-The-Front ..= BLACK SEA -- wonder why .. next weeks ..

https://rumble.com/v3apq88-attempts-to-push-through-the-russian-defense-were-unsuccessful.-military-su.html

Posted by: spare truth | Aug 23 2023 18:07 utc | 40

Prigozhin and Wagner leads are dead. It seems that the MOD got their revenge for the rebellion/stunt.

A lot of people will focus on Prigozhin, but the Wagner leads were likely the real targets given that they were the people who actually organized the 'coup'.

Posted by: Boo | Aug 23 2023 18:08 utc | 41

Plane crash. Yevgeni on board. Reports.

Posted by: Don Firenach | Aug 23 2023 18:09 utc | 42

Posted by: jared | Aug 23 2023 17:14 utc | 8

The 40k numbers were invented by Marty from Amerika as far as I know. Who also said Bakhmut was not supposed to be liberated, Prigo/Wagner violated the orders! And that they're very bad soldiers, the worst ever. I highly doubt his statements but there's more drama in Russian general staff than on telenovelas, so who knows what they're doing there.

Posted by: rk | Aug 23 2023 18:10 utc | 43

"Prigozin is not long of this world"

- Col. Douglas Macgreggor a few weeks ago.

Posted by: Comandante | Aug 23 2023 18:10 utc | 44

Looks like the accountants delivered their final report to Putin.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/prigozhin-be-investigated-after-being-paid-2-billion-year-putin-2023-06-27/

Always follow the money.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 23 2023 18:16 utc | 45

The Russians have massed forces in the north for an offensive. It would be foolish for Ukraine to move its limited forces to the south. If the Russians achieve a major advance in the north, this could mostly cut off Ukraine's forces in the south. Game over.

Posted by: Carlton Meyer | Aug 23 2023 18:17 utc | 46

Random theory (since its our job to invent theories...). Since plane flew from Africa, could it have been mined there, set to explode over Russia? I suppose the other option could have been Novichok poisoning if following the same casuistry.

Posted by: random | Aug 23 2023 18:19 utc | 47

Ludov | Aug 23 2023 17:55 utc | 37

"the question is was this NATO, intent on creating the impression that this Russian Caesar, this people's champion, was assassinated by a brutal and exceedingly envious regime, which is, in any case, on its last legs (a land of Caligulan palace backstabbing), or was it indeed elements of Russian government in truth?"

We know what the western media will say. I wonder what the truth is?

"“An investigation has been launched into the Embraer plane crash that occurred tonight in the Tver region. According to the passenger list, among them is the name and surname of Yevgeny Prigozhin,” Rosaviatsia said.

Earlier TASS had reported that ten people had died after a private jet crashed in Russia’s Tver region north of Moscow. The jet, en route from Moscow to St Petersburg, was carrying seven passengers and three crew."

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 23 2023 18:19 utc | 48

There's a reason for the old joke that isn't really a joke "it's only a war crime if you lose". Declaring someone a war criminal and then making a deal with them afterwards is very difficult...
Posted by: John English | Aug 23 2023 17:17 utc | 10

In WWII they got together and decided that owing to Hitler, only an absolute surrender from Germany was acceptable. And now absolute surrender has become the norm in our society. An easy goofball example of the doctrine was that when we were pushing the Germans out of Italy, we were still at war with Italy even though they had shot Mussolini and hung up his body to dry. At war with Italy why? They had chosen their own new leader and had not formally surrendered to us. No absolute surrender.

And so it goes, moderate solutions arrived at by negations are never acceptable and we drag out wars needlessly with no return to anybody.

Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 23 2023 18:20 utc | 49

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 23 2023 17:20 utc | 13

I'm glad to see him dead.

Putin was criticized earlier for being too soft on him. No, Putin isn't.

Posted by: Colin | Aug 23 2023 18:23 utc | 50

Does not look like an accident
https://twitter.com/region776/status/1694390637918130682/video/1

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 23 2023 18:23 utc | 51

If the overall viewpoint was that the Wagner force was useful, but Prigozhin a liability, finding a way to be rid of him would be sensible. If it happened, surely signed off by Putin and probably initiated by him. Essentially, it would be more of a political decision than a military one. The Germans did the same thing with Rommel when he got on Hitler's hit list.

Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 23 2023 18:24 utc | 52

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 23 2023 17:55 utc | 38

Considering that the Soviet Union's military grew faster than Germany's, I think Hitler's approach was rational.

The German bourgeoisie and the Anglo-American bourgeoisie were also rational in choosing Hitler because it was the "best practice" to stop the Soviet Union.

Otherwise, the growing military power of the Soviet Union could have conquered the whole, not only a half of the European continent.

On this basis, the entire Eurasian and African continents would fall into Soviet hands.

Posted by: Colin | Aug 23 2023 18:27 utc | 53

Posted by: Cesare | Aug 23 2023 17:08 utc | 4
Slavery didn't enter into the US Civil War until Lincoln's Emancipation Proclimation. No Union State was pushing to end slavery. Lincoln had become a rich industrialist using money that his Father-in-law made by selling slaves from the Northern states that no longer needed them, (they had switched to water and steam power,) to Southern cotton producers. Sixty percent of Northern industry relied on Southern cotton.

The South had been so flooded with extra slaves that every Confederate State and the Confederacy itself, in their Constitutions, outlawed any importation of more slaves.

Lincoln's Emancipation Proclimation only affected the ~600 slaves held by the U.S. Army; it converted them to "indentured servants" to serve the US Army. I doubt that they were told that they had been "freed."

The French had negotiated a deal to buy the Southern cotton and provide military support to the Confederacy. That would have more than decimated the Northern Industry. France had abolished slavery. The proclamation caused an uproar in France to break their agreement to a military allience to protect the Confederacy.

Meanwhile, Lincoln oversaw the conversion of Northern industry that had lost its supply of cotton into manufacturing weapons for war. His Military Industrial Complex still survives today, but has been in an ongoing decline.

After the Civil War, other countries winning their conflicts didn't depend on alliance with USA; it did, however, depended on buying weapons from USA. As the US MIC has declined, so has their influence in the world.

(If this group was mostly US people, I would have called the Civil War by it's southern names, such as "The War of Northern Agression," or "The War to End All Wars."

Side note: US National Archives has released Lincoln's order to send arms to Ft. Sumpter with which to invade the Confederacy, and the manifest of the ship carrying them, whose sinking was considered to be the Confederacy starting the War.

Posted by: barstool | Aug 23 2023 18:28 utc | 54

Regarding Prigozhin et. al, there's the obvious conclusion we are perhaps expected to jump to, but also a significant possibility that sabotage could have taken place in Africa before the plane departed. I see (very) suspiciously quick anecdotal reports that it was shot down or that Russian AD was involved that are not reflected in the usual sources. Certainly with the ongoing situation in Niger and his recent recruiting video there's even more reason than ever for Western powers to want to see him neutralized, and paying off someone in an African airport is probably not even that expensive.

Posted by: BillB | Aug 23 2023 18:28 utc | 55

The beauty of a plane crash, if you need to disappear for a bit and you can afford it, is that no one expects a recognizable body to be recovered.

Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 23 2023 18:29 utc | 56

The Ukraine cannot change to a defensive strategy. Russia has much more artillery and, on top of that, air support, which the Ukraine misses. In such an attrition war Russia would be victorious anyway and the costs and losses for Russia would be too low to make the Russians change their mind. The only hope Ukrainians have is to make the war too expensive for Russians, and to do that they need a hot war, not a half-frozen conflict like in Syria. Moreover, the longer Russia holds Crimea and the Donbass, the less sound is the claim on those territory by the Ukraine: Ukrainians have to contest those territories to Russia if they want to lay a claim.

I do not think this is an example of sunken cost fallacy. I think that the Ukrainian high command knows that the so called counteroffensive never had any chance of success, so they tried to get some low hanging fruit, Artëmovsk, to show some victory to Ukrainians and "allied" governments.

It is too late for peace talks. Russia can win a hot war crushing any Ukrainian offensive, Russia can win a long frozen conflict like they are doing in Syria, Russia can win anyway: no reason to accept a peace talk, which is not a total surrender.

Posted by: SG | Aug 23 2023 18:31 utc | 57

Can Russia effectively build their very effective defensive barriers during the wet season, and during winter?

Posted by: barstool | Aug 23 2023 18:31 utc | 58

Posted by: BillB | Aug 23 2023 18:28 utc | 56

Smoke trail of a SAM in the first seconds in a couple of the videos. Small round holes in larger pieces the fuselage in the videos on the ground.

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 23 2023 18:32 utc | 59

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 23 2023 17:33 utc | 25

Considering the conspiracy of US finance capital to steal Trump's election victory and how 9/11 was riddled with suspicions, this is just the norm around the world.

The US is just consistently better at covering it up and more sophisticated in its tactics.

Posted by: Colin | Aug 23 2023 18:32 utc | 60

@Boo | Aug 23 2023 18:08 utc | 42

Nato also wants Wagner leadership gone, especially now when they're preparing to bomb Niger. Sudan seems to be a solved problem for nato, no more Russia there. Now it's time to focus on neutrals and brics and also start action in Georgia and Moldova, probably Syria. Another $500m gift to Taiwan as well and $1.3bn to Argentina.

Posted by: rk | Aug 23 2023 18:35 utc | 61

Alas, I must agree with their analysis on Duran:
https://theduran.com/biden-white-house-wants-armistice-in-ukraine/
From 18:00 they discuss the likelihood of peace/war.
I need not expand.

Another good point: managing media untill Nov. 2024.
I guess we will see much more crackdown on the indie media for that purpose.

p.s. as for Germany. We will see if winter will have any economic consequence on households.
But the elections are still far away.

In fact, for now, RU calls the cards.

Posted by: AG | Aug 23 2023 18:36 utc | 62

Hi MoA's - someone awaken acc.to. that currently fired early "states" of Yourselves ..?
Don't think so. and don't sink so - on sea by any naval strikes by British-guided over-or under attack "preparations" .. Listen once more:
This "Further ongoing war" (RF/USA) won't going futhermore on 'any grounds' a current maps may showing by bloggers like Dima copird vids .. -to re-capture some miles gaining - going ahead + retreat the same miles.
This "war" is only a test (may be of either waepons + Monetary $-system) how NATO would be able to defense itself - or would be able to discuss.
Letter would never occur - til 2025 ..

They (Gates, Schwab, Nuland, Blinken, followed by NS&CI-A, have already planned a "New Pandemic" in 2024 ... may follow not here .. but elsewhere ..
'Scholz + Baerbock' may have been arrested or sinply killed by anyUS-
Snipers if won'*t follow ..
So here today dated & recorded for the "first" - thanks for listening.

Posted by: spare_truth | Aug 23 2023 18:40 utc | 63

🇷🇺 Let's go back to June 24th.

All those who deliberately embarked on the path of betrayal will suffer inevitable punishment, Putin said. The Russian Armed Forces received the necessary order.

https://t.me/intelslava/50758

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 23 2023 18:47 utc | 64

So the passenger manifest says.
-------------------------------------------
Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was among passengers on a plane that crashed northwest of Moscow on Wednesday, according to Russian state media.

The Russian Emergency Situations Ministry told TASS News and RIA Novosti that all 10 people on board the private plane died in the crash in Tver Oblast and that Mr. Prigozhin was on the list of passengers on board the plane. Photos of the crash showed what appeared to be the wreckage of a plane on fire in a field.

Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency also told state media that Mr. Prigozhin was on board the aircraft. Reports claimed that the crash occurred on a flight from Moscow to St. Petersburg.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 23 2023 18:48 utc | 65

The Sunken Cost Fallacy gets erased when/if a new administration takes place, along with new people in the top military echelons in the US. The ones that sunk the costs will not be anymore responsible while the new ones will be able to move towards a new direction they advocated during the campaign.

Posted by: alek_a | Aug 23 2023 18:53 utc | 66

we're off to the conspiracy races now.. dang, and i was enjoying the lack of them the past month..

Posted by: james | Aug 23 2023 18:56 utc | 67

This is hilarious. NATO has mocked Russia for being stuck in Soviet era military doctrine but Russia has demonstrated the greater military flexibility and response. In fact, it is NATO that is stuck in a beat-up-on-little-countries-that-can't-defend-themselves era. "The West" has had air superiority since WWII in most of the places where they attacked. Not here. They are attacking Russia who is absolutely a peer military. NATO is pushing a military doctrine that relies on air superiority which the Ukies will never have. The Russians have already taken out most of the Russian aircraft that the Ukies had. A handful of F-16s won't change anything and could prove disastrous. If the Ukies try to protect their F-16s by basing them out of Poland, Germany, or one of the attack chihuahuas, all that will happen is that Russia will hit those bases and probably bring those countries into the war. The escalation could easily become asymptotic.

Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Aug 23 2023 18:56 utc | 68

Posted by: SG | Aug 23 2023 18:31 utc | 58

The Ukraine cannot change to a defensive strategy.

==================================================

Probably true, but wouldn't it be interesting to see what would happen if Ukraine-NATO simply stopped attacking? This whole business started because they wouldn't stop pressuring people in Donbass. They have never stopped to this day.

What would RF do if Ukraine simply stopped?
Would they take it as an opportunity to advance?
Or would they stop too?

Hmm...

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 23 2023 18:58 utc | 69

BillB

Presumably this was a different plane to the one in Africa? This was an internal flight on a small aircraft. Or at least that is my assumption.

Posted by: Glasshopper | Aug 23 2023 19:03 utc | 70

Posted by: SlowSoft | Aug 23 2023 17:51 utc | 33

Reminds me the End of Arkan in Serbia
But why somebody would take him and other wagners out in a plane ?
What has the plane crew to do with Wagner?
The plane was hired by wagner from a company which is specialized on privat business flights with lear jets
Pilot and crew innocent people
There re so many possibilities to take them out without risking lifes of innocent people.
Novichok school & Logic?

Posted by: tesla | Aug 23 2023 19:04 utc | 71

Re sunken costs:

everything b says makes sense but there is another angle when dealing with war:

it's a racket.

For every 'cost' somebody is making money on the other side of the transaction.

Outgoing costs for some are income for others.

Sunken costs for some is a growing mountain of gain for others.

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 23 2023 19:04 utc | 72

The Rossiya-24 TV channel did NOT confirm Prigozhin's death. The host, citing the Federal Air Transport Agency, said that Prigozhin was on the list of passengers of the crashed plane.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/95696

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 23 2023 19:06 utc | 73

@Jörgen Hassler | Aug 23 2023 17:53 utc | 36

"You have been saying that for a year and a half, haven’t you? And during that time the Russians have defeated three USnato supported armies, haven’t they?"

Like Paul Craig Roberts, Biswapriya Purkayast's apparent lack of understanding of the intricacies of State governance and management has never ceased to amaze me. I don't know how old Biswapriya Purkayast is but he comes across as someone highly intelligent and articulate to boot, however his resentment and baseless criticisms of the Russian President sometimes sound juveline. PRC on the other hand is probably an agent provocateur.


Posted by: Steve | Aug 23 2023 19:06 utc | 74

@rk

The Wagner leadership betrayed the state security apparatus. This is a death warrant in any political system, anywhere. Due to the way power structures work, this is never forgiven and cannot be forgiven. I don't think more elaborate explanations are required, although Wagner's loss is still Russia's loss and NATO's gain. There is no disputing that.

Posted by: Boo | Aug 23 2023 19:09 utc | 75

The US loses in Ukraine, and instead of Biden cutting his losses, each time Biden ups the ante. Isn't this a beautiful example of the sunk cost fallacy?

Posted by: Passerby | Aug 23 2023 19:10 utc | 76

Posted by: barstool | Aug 23 2023 18:31 utc | 59

.. Can Russia effectively build their very effective defensive barriers during the wet season, and during winter? ..

You have firstly to ask anyone of the MoD of Russian Military .. but I think You won't get any answer for that. So, it's remainig of Your own's (trolls?) specualtions ..
Sorry for detaining You here ...

Posted by: spare_truth | Aug 23 2023 19:15 utc | 77

Give it a couple of days until the internal accusations with the aim of fracturing Russian society fizzle out and the SBU (with help of Western intelligence agencies) will acknowledge they were responsible. The trolls here are pathetic.

Posted by: xor | Aug 23 2023 19:15 utc | 78

Monday Prigohzen was posting a vid of himself in the Sahel. A day later he's in Moscow about to take the flight that killed him?

Posted by: botete | Aug 23 2023 19:20 utc | 79

Posted by: Steve | Aug 23 2023 19:06 utc | 75

@Jörgen Hassler | Aug 23 2023 17:53 utc | 36

"You have been saying that for a year and a half, haven’t you? And during that time the Russians have defeated three USnato supported armies, haven’t they?" .....PRC on the other hand is probably an agent provocateur.

==================================

My impression is that PRC's concern is not that the Russians are failing or bumbling but that Putin's cautious, go-slow approach is being read by the neocons as weakness which will tempt them to risk escalation which might end badly for the whole world.

That said, there hasn't been substantive escalation - despite provocations - but the West has suffered significant losses in men and materiel.

Thus far, PCR has been wrong.

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 23 2023 19:24 utc | 80

Posted by: xor | Aug 23 2023 19:15 utc | 79

.. The trolls here are pathetic. ..

So it is. But don't worry .. Other ALT-Media have the same problems.
So what's having done successfully< still now to 'counter' those "US-like Opinion attacks" ..?
Nothing ! Let them work here against themselves - by listening word-by-word a little bit
closer ..!
All best MoAs - take some beers on the bar.


Posted by: spare_truth | Aug 23 2023 19:27 utc | 81

I'm guessing the US and NATOs off ramp is coming on line soon.

Posted by: jpc | Aug 23 2023 19:30 utc | 82

Captain to stewardess "we have problems - calm the passengers"
Stewardess to passengers "take your ID card. Roll it into a cigar shape and insert it into your anus".
Passengers "Why?".
Stewardess "it will make it easier to identify the bodies"

Posted by: Merkin Scot | Aug 23 2023 19:33 utc | 83

Dima says that Ukraine is going to mobilize another 200000 - 400000 soldiers. The West is going to escalate. The elites in Washington and London are not afraid of nuclear war.

Posted by: Simplex | Aug 23 2023 19:33 utc | 84

It can be very hard to maintain a concentration of forces when your concentrated force keeps getting its guts blown out.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Aug 23 2023 19:34 utc | 85

Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 23 2023 17:20 utc | 13
*** If Prigozhin is really dead and if the plane was really shot down nothing will convince any sane person that it was not deliberate murder at the orders of Shoigu/Gerasimov.***

If it was a bomb / sabotage, would think France a most likely suspect since Wagner had dented that regime's antics in Africa.

Posted by: Cynic | Aug 23 2023 19:34 utc | 86

" The Wagner leadership betrayed the state security apparatus. This is a death warrant in any political system, anywhere.

Posted by: Boo | Aug 23 2023 19:09 utc | 76 "


So which one is it ? Wagner attempted a coup, or Wagner was working with Putin on a " sleight of hand " operation ? If you chose the " coup " option your opinion would go squarely against the veteran posters here.

Posted by: Shocked | Aug 23 2023 19:38 utc | 87

Indeed. That. is some BS, possibly more stinky than "re-imagining" of broken-window folklore, antitrust deferred prosecution, synergy (a+b > a+b), GDP circular references, and BATNA strategery. Combined.

See how investopedia dissembles da fundamentals for prospective buyers.

• Sunk costs are those which have already been incurred [historical cost] and which are unrecoverable [FALSE]
• In business, sunk costs are typically not included in consideration [FALSE] when making future [sic] decisions, as they are seen as irrelevant to current and future budgetary concerns [FALSE].
ie. fixed and variable CapEx + OpEx, respectively, expressed as CAPM, NPV, DCF formula commonly employed to estimate minimum "payback period" (or "horizon") required to realize return on minimum investment (ROI).
• Sunk costs are in contrast to relevant costs [lolwut], which are future costs [sic] that have yet to be incurred [sic].
i.e. GAAP balance sheet fixed and marketable assets, fixed and marketable S/T and L/T liabilities, fixed and variable expenses brought to you by pretentious "behavorial economists" impersonating CPAs, disguising historical and replacement costs, revenue recognition, depreciation and amortization, book-to-market and mark-to-market ratios to EBITDA
• The sunk cost fallacy is a psychological barrier that ties people to unsuccessful endeavors simply because they've committed resources to it.
• Examples of sunk costs include salaries, insurance, rent, nonrefundable deposits , or repairs [all tax deductible] (as long as [lolwut] each of those items is not recoverable.
There ya go—"recoverable" is a euphemism for any sale to the greater fool; "not recoverable" is a euphemism for any transaction that has not occurred.

Posted by: sln2002 | Aug 23 2023 19:39 utc | 88

Ukr do not have the comms equipment to fight combine arms and RU has the technology to jam them. Doubt US will provide their advance comms so they will land in the hands of RU. Without coordination ukr are just sending men in platoons to their deaths.

Posted by: dragon | Aug 23 2023 19:39 utc | 89

The Duran (Mercouris) confirms that the only real strategy for USA is get to win global south countries over to their opinion to agree with US state department peace strategy in Ukraine.

They have threatened to take into Nato unilaterally, but that is clearly a bluff that will impress no one.

Biden doesn't want any real negotiation, so the only choice now left is to keep the war in Ukraine going to November 2024 and scrabble around for some more 155mm ammunition, a little ramp of production here and there, and keep fingers crossed any RU offensive doesn't work, or in general things don't get worse for AFU. So it's just hopium of things not crashing.

The other main strategy is to keep the western population in the dark of what's going on in Ukraine. Media management is what they know, not how to fight war. Maybe they'll blame Ukraine too.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 23 2023 19:40 utc | 90

As regards peace negotiations, the only conditions Russia should have any interest in would still be unacceptable to the nazis and their backers. They have not yet suffered enough to capitulate, like Monty Python's black knight.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Aug 23 2023 19:40 utc | 91

He should have stayed in Africa.

Posted by: Patience | Aug 23 2023 19:42 utc | 92

Posted by: Colin | Aug 23 2023 18:27 utc | 54

Wrong. Stalin was fast asleep before Barbarossa. He had decapitated the red army in his obsessive search for "Trotskyite Saboteurs" and was convinced he could work with Hitler.

I honestly don't know if it would have made a difference as the Nazis were totally irrational maniacs, but it's a plausible counterfactual.

Either way the point is the same: an irrational politics translates to idiotic military decisions and can only be cured by a heavy dose of hard reality: defeat.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 23 2023 19:43 utc | 93

"The Russian Emergencies Ministry said all 10 people on board the private jet, had died.

Eight bodies have been recovered so far, officials told RIA Novosti."

https://www.rt.com/russia/581729-wagner-chief-plane/

Should wait til the Fat Lady sings before drawing any conclusions. As Winnie once said;

"Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma."


Posted by: bubbles | Aug 23 2023 19:44 utc | 94

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 23 2023 19:24 utc | 81

.. My impression is that PRC's concern is not that the Russians are failing or bumbling but that Putin's cautious, go-slow approach is being read by the neocons as weakness which will tempt them to risk escalation which might end badly for the whole world. ..

Be sure, "that Putin's cautious" would never been interpreted by any "cautions" of the US-Gov,CIA,etc. US-Gov, AUKUS and all other lavalls (EU v.d.Liars, new NATO General) have understood that.
So do'nt be worry. We (who is it?) will further defeat a neutral "MSM" reporting, more than ever done before. Be sure .. (reminding Yourself on IT-Special skills ..)
J. Assange - go ahead.


Posted by: spare_truth | Aug 23 2023 19:50 utc | 95

I am posting this on multiple sites because I have not seen any commentary on it.
Q: Is it possible that the Russian industrial base is unable to support 500+ in a high intensity conflict, and that is the reason that despite mobilization, the much larger army has not engaged. The Russians have successfully supported that lower 100-150k force stand-off fires requirement and upped the ante on ISR and air power and newer equipment, also through innovative use and integration of their systems, but maybe industrial support of a much larger force is “a bridge too far”. We needed 2 years to prepare for Normandy and 9 months to prepare for the first Iraq invasion that lasted all of two weeks.
E.g .,If a force 75-100k expended up to 20000 rounds of 155mm daily, what would a force of 300 expend?

Posted by: James (seenitbefore) | Aug 23 2023 19:53 utc | 96

Posted by: Simplex | Aug 23 2023 19:33 utc | 85

They re not afraid of Putin?
After 18 month of Sado Maso Operation nobody of Putins western partners is taking him seriouse at all
For them he is a bigmouth without teeth
Therefore they will escalate step by step
The SloMo only supports western partners strategy

Posted by: tesla | Aug 23 2023 19:55 utc | 97

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 23 2023 18:23 utc | 52

An Su pilot will be probably going to the Kremlin for a black medal award and a face to face with Putin in a few weeks.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 23 2023 20:01 utc | 98

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 23 2023 17:36 utc | 27

Good God man, Simplicicus made no such comments in his latest article, you are pure and simply gaslighting to support your idiotic narrative. Folks please stop feeding this troll.

Posted by: madmarc | Aug 23 2023 20:02 utc | 99

@Milites | Aug 23 2023 20:01 utc | 99

I don't believe the Kremlin is behind it.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 23 2023 20:02 utc | 100

next page »

The comments to this entry are closed.