Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 31, 2023

Huawei Chips Demonstrate The Perils Of Technology Protectionism

Just a few month back I argued that the new economic protectionism the U.S. is pushing for will fire back:

Last week Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen gave a speech on the U.S.-China economic relationship. I called it a declaration of war.

Yesterday National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan held a speech on 'Renewing American Economic Leadership' which touched on some of the same themes as Yellen's speech.

Sullivan argues that the U.S. must change course from opening markets and liberalization to targeted protectionism and subsidies for specific sectors. The main argument for it is 'national security' but the real aim seems to be the suppression of competition from others.
...
Sullivan's whole speech is an argument against free markets and for protectionism and sector subsidies. It does away with the economic framework the U.S. had build after the end of the second world war. This is supposed to be replaced it with bilateral and block wise agreements that are to the advantage of the U.S., to the disadvantage of its agreement 'partners' and which exclude China and other 'hostile' economies.

The so called 'decoupling' or 'de-risking' from China is actually an attempt to isolate it. It creates a dynamic that will lead to import replacements in China.

This will lower exports to China from the U.S. and its allies. The whole scheme will thereby eventually work to China's advantage.

Three years ago the U.S. prohibited domestic and foreign companies to stop the provision of 5G chips to Huawei. Thus a milestone of import replacement was revealed yesterday when Huawei announced a brand new 5G phone with Chinese made chips:

Huawei Mate 60 Pro has been silently launched in China. The successor to last year's Huawei Mate 50 Pro, brings several major upgrades including satellite calling support and an LTPO AMOLED display. The handset sports a 6.82-inch AMOLED display with an adaptive refresh rate that ranges between 1Hz and 120Hz and a 300Hz touch sampling rate.

The U.S. pushed to  stop supplies of 5G chips to Huawei. That led to a campaign to develop Chinese replacements. Huawei has also developed a graphic processor that is as fast as Nvidia's A100 GPU which is used for high performance computing and AI development. The new 5G chip the phone is using has been confirmed as being genuine.

The $300 billion import of chips to China has shrunken as the country is fast in developing domestic replacements.

On the same day Russia increased its autonomy with the first flight of the new SJ-100 SuperJet which is based on the replacement of systems that previously came from foreign suppliers but are now produced domestically:

United Aircraft Corporation CEO Yury Slyusar also highlighted the broader implications of the project, declaring it a "testament to Russia's technological self-sufficiency." Slyusar added, "Our primary aim now is to obtain full Russian certification for the plane and initiate regular shipments to airlines."

The launch of the plane and of Huawei's new phone came on the same day U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo ended her visit to China. It was certainly meant as a point.

Today's Global Times Editorial is rubbing it in:

Chinese companies will inevitably break through the blockade and move forward. This is the result of China's overall development and close integration with global interests. In this era of globalization, the idea of kicking Chinese companies out of the industrial chain will only encounter increasing resistance because it goes against the law of development. The resurgence of Huawei smartphones after three years of forced silence is enough to prove that the US' extreme suppression has failed. This also serves as a microcosm of the US-China tech war, reflecting the entire process and foreshadowing the final outcome. Recently, some American media outlets have been enthusiastic about hyping up things like Huawei is building a "secret" chip factory. Ultimately, these are all due to a failure to see or a refusal to believe in the general trend, and they hold on to outdated thinking that Chinese companies' technology is all "stolen." Essentially, it is Washington's technological arrogance, and the US will definitely pay the price for this arrogance.

As China is training more engineers and researchers than the U.S. and Europe combined, it will eventually take the technological lead in many fields. Other countries will have to either become more specialized or close their markets to imports from China.

The later will in the longer run cause a less competitive environment that will come with higher costs and can only be sustained for a relatively short time.

Posted by b on August 31, 2023 at 15:29 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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thanks b... perhaps it's not surprising seeing the lack of real leadership or vision on the part of the usa and friends.. they are still stuck in a colonial mindset and can't seem to break out of it.. i guess that would be too socialistic of them and they can't have that.. the "winner take all" approach is close to an end.. the mental midget next door - canada - continues on with great subservience!!

Posted by: james | Aug 31 2023 15:38 utc | 1

Congratulations to Huawei for their 5G phone.
Quantity has a quality of its own. You can be clever, you can be fast, but chances are somewhere in Asia someone is cleverer, faster than you.

Posted by: Passerby | Aug 31 2023 15:52 utc | 2

So the question is, can the Chinese get to rough economic, military, and technological parity with the West before the demographic problems they have derail them? I'm betting they can....

Posted by: Farenheit | Aug 31 2023 15:53 utc | 3

It didn't take long.

This means there is no "constraining" the Chinese military via tech sanctions. Much as predicted, really. The beltway set is both stupid and uninformed. But what do you expect?

Posted by: The Scots bloke | Aug 31 2023 15:54 utc | 4

And all this without any need to kidnap little old ladies ...

Snark aside:

About 2 years ago I had a horrendous argument on these forums with a smartass who claimed to have peerless knowledge of chip fabrication.
My prediction was that within 2 years China would effectively have caught up to where they need to be to make the Western edge in chip technology marginal or irrelevant.

I spoke simply as someone who uses microcontrollers and ASICs in design projects, not as someone with deep knowledge at the silicone level, yet it was obvious to anyone with common sense and eyes to see that the momentum and trajectory the Chinese industrial complex was on would lead them past a certain point of development.

May the 'experts' choke on their bile.

I'll predict again: Within 2 years from now, China will have achieved parity in chip design and fabrication with the West.

And if that doesn't come to pass, I'll forfeit my right to post on these forums ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 15:55 utc | 5

This is a microcosm of what is happening on the world stage economically, militarily and politically. Threats and sanctions have led to self sufficiency first and then multi-polarism which challenges the west's dominance.

Posted by: Mike Price | Aug 31 2023 15:55 utc | 6

Progress on the new Phoenix chip plant isn't going well . . .here.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 31 2023 16:00 utc | 7


As China is training more engineers and researchers than the U.S. and Europe combined, it will eventually take the technological lead in many fields. Other countries will have to either become more specialized or close their markets to imports from China.

The problem with closing their markets to Chinese imports is that China will simply sell elsewhere: There are far more countries who need those imports than countries who can manufacture them and are threatened by Chinese competition.

Those countries that close their markets will find that they have inadvertently yielded the international market to Chinese products. Having only their own (dwindling) populations to generate demand for their products, they will not be able to sustain economies of scale and ultimately they will lose the very markets they sought to protect.

The problem with becoming more specialised is identical: forfeiting international markets to the Chinese who will eventually catch up in these areas of specialisation as well ...

There are only two ways out of this bind:

a) A harmonious system of cooperation to achieve mutually beneficial trade balances (in essence, A defeat of international capitalism).
b) A violent, global reset (and here I'm not talking about a Carrington Event)

It should be obvious which of the two options the average neocon or American ultra-nationalist would choose once this realisation hits ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 16:08 utc | 8

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 31 2023 16:00 utc | 7


Progress on the new Phoenix chip plant isn't going well . . .here.

Perhaps, like it's namesake it will rise from the ashes ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 16:10 utc | 9

b, this is my greatest gripe with you and many of the old leftist guard here.

You all do not have a coherent worldview.

You want us to believe that globalism and off-shoring (read: gutting) of domestic manufacturing is a good thing, but you simultaneously decry what the empire does to maintain its hegemony (read: bloating of white collar and service economies).

Nationalism, more or less, means less entanglements with other countries. For instance, we would not have a shortage of basic medical supplies as we did at the outset of the scamdemic had we been less reliant on China, supposedly our erstwhile foe.

But you all have turned a corner since your genesis of supporting the working, blue-collar sector into placing blind trust in China's mercantilist empire at the expense of the stability of western economies.

It's a head-scratcher. A more reasonable outlook on the future would be affirming just the kind of protectionist outlook that makes nations distinct and thriving.

We talk about maintaining heirloom fruit varieties in the face of awful, monoculture practices. Everyone knows this is a good thing. So why are you all so eager to have China replace the western empire? It just means more of the same neoliberal reality of swollen white-collar and service economies.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 31 2023 16:15 utc | 10

Thx B-
Just a note, this goes far beyond the Communication, AI & commercial computer field, China has seen the direct repression of competition and is now racing & plunging at accelerated rates in the Medical, Space & Avionics chip industry.
These industries, especially medical & space, bother the US much more than communications field. They’ve has a hand down overwhelming patent market on these and have been drawing billions off of these patents & do not want to see other patents come into play against them.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 31 2023 16:15 utc | 11

The past few days i was reading about the new russian superjet, consisting of substituted parts only, in russian media.
I was thinkinf to myself: could airbus or boeing build a plan of european/american parts only? And what fun it would be to ask a ceo of these companies this question.

Given tbe brics enlargement, other geopolilitical shifts and the mercantilist response by the defending (western) side... there must be a point in which all the money cant buy anything any more. At this point inflation must hit simbabwe levels.

To me that seems clear as day. But i am just drinking my third beer. What do I know? Maybe I am just halluzinating?

Posted by: Orgel | Aug 31 2023 16:29 utc | 12

Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 15:55 utc | 5--

I recall that discourse. I recall writing at the time that all of Nature's secrets are there for anyone to discover and master--Nature cannot be patented or copywritten or somehow prevented from discovery. And that's what's happening, although there are some finer tech points in play the West is clearly having a hard time even discovering, like the secrets to hypersonic missile construction. Not too long ago, I posted an excerpt from a Global Times article that reviewed how the Chinese were treated by the Dutch (if I recall correctly) who said to Chinese engineers that they wouldn't be able to make a particular type of lithography machine even if they were provided the blueprints. Well guess what? That arrogance only served to motivate the Chinese and they will soon be producing the leading edge in many tech realms along with the Russians. One of the reasons why I produced "Russia Leveraging Development and Educational Aspects of National Projects" was to show a portion of the internals of Russia's ability to continue to advance their development and shrug off Western sanctions. And the Chinese and Russian developmental pathways will and are being emulated by RoW. That represents a massive failure in thought by the West, which will eventually render it insignificant as the century closes.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 31 2023 16:30 utc | 13

Trade embargo and sanctioning only work in fields where the initiator is ”top dog”. US companies are advanced, but at the same time derive most of their revenues from China. Therefore the White House strategy will inevitably lead to shrinkage and deterioration of US industries revenue, and with it, investment to R&D.

Sanction do not work in highly parallel and interconnected world, with endless of opportunities to source needed items indirectly and third parties. US would definitely love full control of Korean, Taiwanese and Japanese trade policies, but it ain’t so.

Meanwhile, China moves forward through another route.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 31 2023 16:31 utc | 14

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 31 2023 16:31 utc | 14


US would definitely love full control of Korean, Taiwanese and Japanese trade policies, but it ain’t so.

But in effect they do have full control. The Plaza Accord being just one example of the top of my head - nuked the (brief) Japanese dominance of the chip industry off the face of the earth.


Meanwhile, China moves forward through another route.

No Plaza Accord for these guys, [un]fortunately ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 16:35 utc | 15

Farenheit #3

"So the question is, can the Chinese get to rough economic, military, and technological parity with the West before the demographic problems they have derail them? I'm betting they can...."

I've never understood this. Frankly, where China is now, and where the US and EU would be also if it were not for ceaseless immigration, is where we all need to be ... a gentle tapering of population to more globally sustainable levels over the next 100 years. In other words, any demographic issues China has are demographic issues we all need to have, and soon.

Secondly, the Chinese with their very high savings rates are uniquely capable of riding out the effects of an aging population: the old ones pay their own way, rather than primarily relying on a social security system that draws heavily from the working age population. Thus, they will be a lot more resilient to what needs to happen than western populations.

Posted by: Caliman | Aug 31 2023 16:36 utc | 16

b, this is my greatest gripe with you and many of the old leftist guard here.

I don't thing that globalism requires off-shoring. Decent industrial planning and measures on the government side can prevent it.

Protectionism is good if you want to build a new industry and eventually export whatever it produces. But it will only work for maybe 1 or 2 decades. After that one will have to open up and force competition on ones domestic companies. Otherwise that industry will never become competitive while requesting monopolistic prices.

Think Japan or South Korea which have both done it that way.

What the U.S. is trying to do is to prevent China from making certain things. That is not protectionism and, as China shows, doesn't work.

The U.S. also prevents Chinese solar panels from coming into the U.S. but that isn't be done to build a domestic solar panel industry. The U.S. now imports solar panels from Vietnam and Thailand where Chinese companies assemble them from parts made in China.

The U.S. is waging economic warfare instead of (re-)building its industries.

Posted by: b | Aug 31 2023 16:40 utc | 17

Sullivan argues that the U.S. must change course from opening markets and liberalization to targeted protectionism and subsidies for specific sectors.

It is all about politics and protectionism which will lead to inferior and more expensive technology. All the Hi-Tech stuff requires Hi-Tech brains. Nether the Chinese, either side of the Taiwan Strait, nor the Russians lack in that department.

Anyone ever check out the Math Department of the University of Moscow or Electrical Engineering from the University of Leningrad?

Yellen is the brain trust behind the sanctions on Russia. She also coordinated them in November well before the start of the SMSO proceedings. Western arrogance and hubris gets you ruins, just look at what is left of Ukraine.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 31 2023 16:45 utc | 18

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 15:55 utc | 5

Your argument was almost certainly with Internet know-it-all celebrity "c1ue" who has apparently moved on from these parts (thankfully). Last I saw him he was bragging to some poor rando on a substack page about being in Russia to research his latest nuclear fusion startup idea, I shit you not. I almost entered the conversation by asking what happened to his work for the Texas electricity grid but thought better of it.

Modern day Da Vinci or Nikola Tesla according to himself.

BTW it's "silicon" as "silicone" is the soft material in caulk or breast implants.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 31 2023 16:47 utc | 19

So why are you all so eager to have China replace the western empire? It just means more of the same neoliberal reality of swollen white-collar and service economies.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 31 2023 16:15 utc | 10

a) "Eager to have China replace the western empire?"

Where? Describing the reality not necessarily means endorsing it.

The West is doing all it can to make itself go broke. China just needs to keep track of what it's been doing essentially since Nixon went to China.

You obviously don't follow this blog or others, for example Pepe Escobar, Tom Luongo, Scott Ritter or Tucker Carlson, who a long time ago concluded that all that the so-called western "elites" can do is doubling down on more of their braindead policies -- and at the same time denying having anything to do with Main Street consequences, creating the setting to make Oliver Anthony's song of the year "Rich Men North of Richmond" an instant hit within 48 hours.

b) "more of the same neoliberal reality of swollen white-collar and service economies."

Well, no. Please do your homework first and look up how China's GDP (and by extension that of Russia) breaks down into sectors, and compare that to the EU and the U.S.; then name the Chinese equivalent of Blackrock and Vanguard. You can't.

Instead you'll find that a handbags and cosmetics company tops as the EU's biggest by market cap. That's essentially all you need to know.

Posted by: Nervous German | Aug 31 2023 16:47 utc | 20

El yanqui puede ir a joderse.
Yanks are like Germans, they are going to vanish anyway.

Posted by: Timur | Aug 31 2023 16:50 utc | 21

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 31 2023 16:15 utc | 10

Aren't you overlooking the fact that this situation arises from AmeriKKKa's desire to monopolise every source of profit by sabotaging the efforts of competitors?

In any case, if you're making something to sell in vast quantities, it's IMPOSSIBLE to prevent a specimen from "falling into the wrong hands."

eg. In the early '90s Ford Australia bought a Mercedes 180E to run its single telescopic windscreen wiper through Ford's deluge facility to see if it was worth copying.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 31 2023 16:53 utc | 22

To get a full sense of the 5nm situation is important to read this report ==> https://www.archyde.com/smics-5nm-process-breakthrough-foundry-huawei-kirin-9000sfacts-make-fans-heartbroken-technews-technology-news/

People familiar with the matter answered a series of questions about Huawei’s Kirin 9000S mobile processor in a question-and-answer manner.

1. Is this the first time SMIC uses this process technology?

No, SMIC will help a domestic mining machine ship 7nm chips in 2021, and this time it will help Huawei with the same generation (N+2) process technology.

2. Is the Kirin 9000S manufactured using domestic lithography exposure equipment this time?

No, the DUV lithography exposure equipment used by ASML in the Netherlands is the same as the contemporary TSMC lithography exposure equipment, without any localization.

3. Is the Kirin 9000S produced by Huawei’s own production line this time?

Totally wrong. Huawei is building its own production line, and even building its own lithography exposure equipment, but these are all very distant things.

At present, Huawei is in the stage of building its own non-beautification production line (that is, the acquisition of Nikon lithography exposure equipment that has been eliminated for many years), and Huawei’s self-made lithography exposure equipment is very far away, at least 5 to 10 years before there will be a stage news.

4. Is the Kirin 9000S produced by SMIC’s self-built non-beautification production line this time?

No, even if SMIC obtains Nikon lithography exposure equipment, it is impossible to make a 5nm (N+2) chip like the Kirin 9000S, which is an error in the physical principle.

5. Since ASML’s DUV exposure equipment has been used for a long time, why is SMIC suddenly able to manufacture Kirin 9000S for Huawei?

Because this year, Biden and the White House Department of Commerce made a decision to allow SMIC to provide a license to manufacture 5nm chips for Huawei.

According to previous media reports, sufficient production capacity and stocking will be achieved by the end of this year. However, when the yield rate was low and the output was insufficient, Huawei directly produced mobile phones and released them offline, which caused today’s shock.

6. Can SMIC continue to make breakthroughs in process technology and carry out 4nm-level chip foundry?

It is impossible at present, because it is necessary to purchase a large amount of ASML’s EUV shadow exposure equipment, but at present, the sale of this shadow exposure equipment is completely banned by SMIC, so the current Kirin 9000S is what SMIC can achieve in the next 5 to 10 years. the best process technology.

Unless SMIC is lifted the ban on EUV shadow exposure equipment, or the White House licenses ASML to sell EUV shadow exposure equipment to SMIC, SMIC can only optimize “N+3”, “N+4” and so on on the current basis.

7. Does Shanghai Microelectronics (SMEE) have the opportunity to develop EUV shadow exposure equipment?

impossible.

8. Will ASML sell photo exposure equipment to Huawei’s self-built production line?

impossible.

9. Are there any other de-beautification solutions to help Huawei OEM?

The probability is 0.


Posted by: too scents | Aug 31 2023 16:56 utc | 23

iPhone with Chinese characteristics!

Posted by: Tichy | Aug 31 2023 16:58 utc | 24

Lets call a spade a spade, whitey is simply trying to burn down the new "Library of Alexandria" that has arisen in China. Satan has recent experience, the great satan has been able to stop Japan from going past it by various subterfuges.

Posted by: Anon | Aug 31 2023 17:01 utc | 25

I'll predict again: Within 2 years from now, China will have achieved parity in chip design and fabrication with the West.

And if that doesn't come to pass, I'll forfeit my right to post on these forums ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 15:55 utc | 5
------------------------------------------------------------------
The Chinese are being held back because of restrictions placed on the export of manufacturing equipment, e.g. from the Netherlands. We are talking nanometers.

Nothing will stop the Chinese. Better to get along and make nice.

BTW, don't stop posting. I like reading you stuff.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 31 2023 17:03 utc | 26

I was thinking to myself: could Airbus or Boeing build a plane of European/American parts only? And what fun it would be to ask a CEO of these companies this question.

Posted by: Orgel | Aug 31 2023 16:29 utc | 12
-----------------------------------------------------
Having been at Airbus and Boeing to discuss international manufacturing the answer is yes, of course.

There is a reason why there is international distribution of component manufacturing. Everyone gets a piece of the pie and everyone will buy airplanes for their own market.

Air planes are simple. Try ballistic nuclear submarines.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 31 2023 17:11 utc | 27

@Tichy | Aug 31 2023 16:58 utc | 24

iPhone with Chinese characteristics!
They should call it XiPhone, I might buy one. Btw., I have a Huawei pad which was very cheap before they stopped selling them here, I use it daily.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 31 2023 17:20 utc | 28

BTW, (Arch), don't stop posting. I like reading you stuff.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 31 2023 17:03 utc | 26

Me too.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 31 2023 17:20 utc | 29

BTW, (Arch), don't stop posting. I like reading you stuff.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 31 2023 17:03 utc | 26

Me too.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 31 2023 17:20 utc | 30

Posted by: The Scots bloke | Aug 31 2023 15:54 utc | 4

####

I believe 90%+ of what Western governments claim to be doing is an exercise in PR.

They are not really trying to achieve any meaningful result, and certainly not over the long term, as the incentives in a democracy are skewed towards the now, rather than the future because most of the politicians making policy now won't be in office in 20 years.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 31 2023 17:27 utc | 31

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 31 2023 17:03 utc | 26

What the West is sneering at are the emergency reactions to the shock treatment by US. It took US/EU more than two years to react to their subprime crisis and also global COVID-19 pandemic.

Just visited China two months ago and again soon. The dynamic business environment, the speed and spread of 5G are amazing, all companies expect a tough 2nd half of 2023, but they all expect a much better 2024.

It will take China time to get over the shocks, but China will.

Posted by: KitaySupporter | Aug 31 2023 17:34 utc | 32

Ironically, what B is saying is that protectionism works. Why? Russia and China had protectionist policies for decades before this moment. They took the steps necessary to preserve their industrial base and their scientific academy. The US has done neither, instead choosing free-trade policies that outsourced their industrial base and scientific academy.

So, when the US tried leveraging its technological advantage over both countries to whip them into shape, they both simply turned to their carefully cultivated domestic industries and intelligentsia to solve the problem instead of cucking to the United States.

Posted by: Monos | Aug 31 2023 17:35 utc | 33

US companies are advanced, but at the same time derive most of their revenues from China.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 31 2023 16:31 utc | 14

############

Much of America's "wealth" is rooted in intellectual property protectionism, which reduces supply in order to raise prices. Like favoring the service economy over the production economy, America has taken the soft route, which makes it more fragile over the long term.

Countries like China already disregard a lot of American intellectual property law. As they should. The idea that anyone can own an idea in perpetuity, or for a congressionally defined period (influenced heavily by the major copyright and patent holders) fundamentally undermines reality.

Humans have emulated and copied each other since the dawn of time. That is how our species has advanced. Leave it to the Americans to legislate against human progress.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 31 2023 17:41 utc | 34

@too scents | Aug 31 2023 16:56 utc | 23

Some observation about the link/contents you referred:
1. I admit that I know little. But the website archyde.com seems not a well-known or reputable source to me.
2. The article is badly written not only in English but also in technology terms.
3. The answers look illogical.

If this is a troll-effort or propaganda, it's apparently lack of quality control. At a minimum, write something with decent English.

All in all, Chinese have their pride and self-respect and will not ask amerikkka for "permission" to make what they want.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Aug 31 2023 17:45 utc | 35

@Arch Bungle re: #5 - China chips

I have argued same on this very forum and others. They are on an escape trajectory, have been for a while. Headline from Tom's Hardware yesterday: "Chinese DRAM Maker Developing HBM-Like Memory"

So...it's like high bandwidth? Does it just simulate the 'high bandwidth' part? Or is it, you know, actually real high-bandwidth? Does your highway have 2 lanes? Or does it have 12 lanes? Either it does or it doesn't.

Posted by: Dr Wellington Yueh | Aug 31 2023 17:45 utc | 36

@Don Bacon #7 re: Phoenix chips

Issue was they passed a bill to match infrastructure funding with the stipulation that locals would be the new hires. Fab almost done, and the company wants a large batch of H1Bs to staff it. Union said phuq dat!

Posted by: Dr Wellington Yueh | Aug 31 2023 17:48 utc | 37

America is a garbage dump. Apparent to many, except itself, it has committed suicide as the fatal poison is already distributed throughout its system. Cop cities, bad water, an education-adverse system, a non-universal medical pay-to-play, insufficient parenting (what a killer this is) because of economic duress---

All this talk of who will come out on top should not include the USA, a gangster state since JFK and so on.
The sun has already set on their still-racist empire.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Aug 31 2023 17:52 utc | 38

America is a garbage dump. Apparent to many, except itself, it has committed suicide as the fatal poison is already distributed throughout its system. Cop cities, bad water, an education-adverse system, a non-universal medical pay-to-play, insufficient parenting (what a killer this is) because of economic duress---

All this talk of who will come out on top should not include the USA, a gangster state since JFK and so on.
The sun has already set on their still-racist empire.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Aug 31 2023 17:52 utc | 39

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Aug 31 2023 17:52 utc | 38

##############

America has always been a gangster state. Go back to the genocides of the Indian wars.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 31 2023 17:55 utc | 40

I am not arguing with your experience @acco

nevertheless: are you sure?

it is just, because I used to work for a company that sold israeli equipment to arab countries by repackaging the goods, thus making it products "made in EU".

are you really sure, that all the components of an airplane from raw materials like titanium to semiconductors is made in Europe? without any chinese or russian parts?

Posted by: Orgel | Aug 31 2023 17:57 utc | 41

@LoveDonbass | Aug 31 2023 17:41 utc | 34

Much of America's "wealth" is rooted in intellectual property protectionism, which reduces supply in order to raise prices. Like favoring the service economy over the production economy, America has taken the soft route, which makes it more fragile over the long term.

Countries like China already disregard a lot of American intellectual property law. As they should. The idea that anyone can own an idea in perpetuity, or for a congressionally defined period (influenced heavily by the major copyright and patent holders) fundamentally undermines reality.

Agree. The western patent system has been abused for a long time and restricts the development and well-beings of developing countries. IMHO, ideas can be rewarded but not to the extent how amerikkkan or the west currently does. In a sense, it is also a form of rentier but maybe with a better "name" called "intellectual property".

Posted by: LuRenJia | Aug 31 2023 17:59 utc | 42

https://sputnikglobe.com/20230831/russia-unveils-innovative-mobile-bunker-equipped-with-sled-like-skis-for-special-op-zone--1113014659.html

My primitive calculations predict that there is a light weight fiber re-enforced concrete liner within the correlated steel shell, this I conclude that it will be buried thus become un-movable until it can be dug out.
I would think that this should be double steel lined and the liner thickness be twice as thick making it more like 5 tons.

So, why not use large drainage concrete tubes (as they will be needed for other uses)?

ANYWAY, I thought this interesting and perhaps relevant.

Posted by: T S | Aug 31 2023 18:02 utc | 43

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 15:55 utc | 5

bet he was a Dutch ass..The Dutch think they have superpowers...

Posted by: AI | Aug 31 2023 18:09 utc | 44

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 31 2023 16:45 utc | 18:

....Western arrogance and hubris gets you ruins, just look at what is left of Ukraine.

The look of what's left of Ukraine doesn't bother Americans a bit. Therefore: the lesson is never learned.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Aug 31 2023 18:14 utc | 45

The mention of national security is merely a ploy to support the US agenda of re-shoring of manufacturing. In my opinion the mis-direction creates undesirable friction, but it seems that the US desires that friction to support it's agenda. In my mind, if Trump were handling he would simply tear-up any relevant treaties and focus on the details of restoring manufacturing base - in itself fraught with huge risk. However, it seems likely that Trump will not get that chance, so we will continue with the stupidity and sabre rattling.

It is my impression (maybe wrong) that because B is big fan of globalism, that he focuses on the stupid, dishonest US aspect of it - which is valid but sort of not the point and globalism is dead.

Posted by: jared | Aug 31 2023 18:18 utc | 46

An aside on two terms that often get conflated/confused: Globalism/Globalist and Globalization. The former is the ideology and those who hold it that's the political-economic aspect of the Full Spectrum Dominance Doctrine which means to colonize the world and plunder it via Neoliberalism or Financial War that Hudson's documented so well. Globalization merely reflects the reality that commerce between nations is now global and has been for 500+ years. In contrast, the original Silk Roads were semi-global and their effects can be seen as a precursor to what full-fledged globalization would become, which ought to increase the interconnectivity of peoples that eliminates the conception of Others when we're all human. Thus, one can conclude that Globalism is Anti-Human in its essence while Globalization seeks to promote Humanity's evolution and is thus Pro-Human.

What we see happening now is the division of the world into two blocs holding these two POVs. The West insists on pursuing its quest for Globalism while the RoW seeks to expand Globalization. The Globalists seek to restrain all efforts by other nations to develop and evolve to a higher plane of being and reserve that higher plane for themselves alone. That's the WEF program in a nutshell.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 31 2023 18:20 utc | 47

" impossible. "
too scents | Aug 31 2023 16:56 utc | 23

"Inconceivable!!!" - Princess Bride?

I don't think that word means what he thinks it means.

Posted by: David G Horsman | Aug 31 2023 18:23 utc | 48

@ hoarse

Ha. Funny you mention the 180E. I am a proud-owner of a 190E 2.6 here in the states. It's a wonderful car with incredible styling, including the mono-wiper. I wish I had an older model (less plastic) and a manual tran though. It's a fun car that catches a lot of comments.

Thx for thr response. I am merely pointing out that the rise of dependence on China has seemingly correlated with the attempt of full-spectrum dominance by the globalist elites in the west. It is as if there is a connection with empires and their need to have their manufacturing abroad. There is a youtuber named "uneducated economist" here in the PAC NW who makes reference to the Cantillion Effect, whereby the rise of empire and its homicidal tendencies corresponds to the increasing importing of foreign goods.

IOW, when we see the empire finally defanged, it will most likely mark the renaissance of domestic manufacturing in the west, less globalizdd trade deals, and more bilateral diplomacy.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 31 2023 18:29 utc | 49

One is reminded that, from the beginning of the republic to around 1960, the United States was solidly protectionist. It was basically an autarchy: in the 1920's foreign trade was about 4% of the economy. Even I am old enough to remember when Gross National Product and Gross Domestic Product were the same. With protection from foreign markets, but robust competition internally, the United States during this time developed from a backwards agricultural colony to the greatest industrial scientific power the world had ever seen.

I'm not saying that we can go back to that time, or that trade is always bad, or that the solution is autarchy. I am saying that this propaganda meme that the elites used to jam through exporting our industrial base overseas - notably to China - that "free" trade has always been the answer, was a lie. Basically all countries that slavishly follow the doctrines of Adam Smith do poorly. "Free" trade is not God.

Of course, that doesn't mean that the idiotic sorts of protectionism our elites are pushing make any sense. They sanction this, subsidize that, allow the formation of big monopolies that destroy competition, bail out failures, change their minds, etc.etc. We are almost moving to a Stalinist command economy. Remember, private profit does not by itself create wealth, competition creates wealth.

Posted by: TG | Aug 31 2023 18:31 utc | 50

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 31 2023 17:27 utc | 31:

They are not really trying to achieve any meaningful result, and certainly not over the long term, as the incentives in a democracy are skewed towards the now, rather than the future because most of the politicians making policy now won't be in office in 20 years.

Thumbs up on this statement!!! Very well put, and very astute observation.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Aug 31 2023 18:31 utc | 51

The importance put on this computer chip technology borders on the ridiculous. For some large number of decades the big deal in 'generations' has been the size of the electronic circuit that is fabricated on a silicon wafer. Except for power applications, smaller is almost always better because the chip circuit will be faster and consume less power. But the thing is, the circuits are already so fast and the current drain so low that the advantage of smaller and faster is minor. That is why a cell phone can have as much computer power as the Space Shuttle had.

There is also a cost advantage. Smaller geometries allow for more circuits per chip. That is why smaller is such a big deal in the consumer market. If smaller geometries can be achieved, consistent with a high yield of usable circuits per chip, it is less expensive. Thus the big stress on smaller in the consumer market: it is a cost thing.

A couple of years ago I read that the Chinese never put computer chips in their military hardware that they couldn't manufacture locally. This was back when they were behind what was available in the Political West, which many not be currently true. I am inclined to believe it because it is so obviously sensible. Why insist in the latest thing chip when it could so easily become unavailable in the event of a war? If the Russians have half a brain they are doing the same thing. Meanwhile the Germans think they can stifle the Russians by not letting them have chips that are used in a washing machine.


Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 31 2023 18:34 utc | 52

@5 Arch Bungle
Have worked for one big US chip manufacturers for many years.
They have been outsourcing work to China and India for decades for cost reasons.
Basically gave those employees/countries the know how to produce chips.
Now they are hiring people from Afghanistan and Nepal at reduced cost.
Unfortunately, capitalism is all about short term gain as opposed to the long term interests of the country/citizens.

Posted by: Thurl | Aug 31 2023 18:39 utc | 53

Always cite your comments:

"Inconceivable!"
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

https://parade.com/983468/alexandra-hurtado/princess-bride-quotes/
(#18 Arch)

Posted by: David G Horsman | Aug 31 2023 18:42 utc | 54

They should call it XiPhone, I might buy one. Btw., I have a Huawei pad which was very cheap before they stopped selling them here, I use it daily.
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 31 2023 17:20 utc | 28

I'd never buy a non-Chinese brand phone. Support China!

Posted by: Tichy | Aug 31 2023 18:53 utc | 55

Hey b, james et al.

(Screen capture)
News content can't be shared in
Canada.
In response to Canadian government
legislation, news content can't be
shared.

Grant Horsman
Just now
Moa Blocked on Facebook

MOA - Huawei Chips Demonstrate The Peris...Of Technology Protectionism
-----
In response to Canadian government
legislation,... See more

Posted by: David G Horsman | Aug 31 2023 19:18 utc | 56

The real reasons for the US going after Huawei were that it would not integrate US spy ware within its routers and that its highly successful handset, router and mobile base station business directly threatened the massively profitable Apple iPhone business and as an extension the whole US electronics/operating system dominance that allows US corporations to extract value-added from the rest of the world.

The outcome of the attempts to destroy Huawei have now turned into the worst case, a China that is becoming independent of US technology. The super-profits made by US companies through supply chain dominance backed up by patents, financial and industrial network control, together with the raw power of the US state are now directly at risk. Already the Western microchip industry is being significantly damaged by the reductions in orders from its biggest market China, and this will only get worse.

As this becomes apparent to the US, that China cannot be kept down technologically, the only remaining logical step is continued escalation toward war. In the process, the US will alienate the non-Western world even more and quite possibly create a fracture with part of the European elites.

B should also have included the car Chinese brands now taking over 50% of their domestic market and increasing their exports. Having dominant positions in car manufacturing, aircraft manufacturing and electronics is central to Western dominance - all of those positions are crumbling.

Posted by: Roger | Aug 31 2023 19:22 utc | 57

Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 31 2023 18:34 utc | 52

Good comment clarifying the situation around what is especially bleeding edge consumer market CPUs and GPUs we are talking about.

Even if Chinese homebrew designed and fabbed chips were "20 years behind" bleeding edge cots stuff by the likes of intel and nvidia one should remember that for a myriad of applications to support a advanced society those are not required.

German politicians suggest they are not required to build hyper sonic missiles either but i digress.

As for cost reduction based on reduced geometries:
It's also marketing. The target audience has no clue what 10nm, 7nm, 5nm, etc. even means and it means different things depending on the producer.
As for digital cameras and yearly bloating megapixel numbers, it is a selling point for a product the consumers don't actually need nor use.

On a side note, the excess of computing power in this kind of hardware is what currently blesses us with those statistical machines brute forced into immitating human languages.

I fathom there could be done more productive things with all those ressources but better waste them than let them chinese have 'em.

Posted by: kspr | Aug 31 2023 19:24 utc | 58

... However, social media is one of my "things". 😁 So...

😁 I Agree That Huawei Chips Demonstrate The Perils Of Technology Protectionism like my MoA friends.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=952082452544718&id=100032289153275&mibextid=NOb6eG

And I'm fairly sure that one of the unintended consequences of this is that it will drive people onto alternate news sites. Like Moon of Alabama.

Posted by: David G Horsman | Aug 31 2023 19:29 utc | 59

It's time to discard first-mover advantages to which westworld clings. Whether colonial value chain "geopolitics" or mRNA and 4 nm IPR licenses, it's long passed time to prepare for leapfrogging basic and applied sciences as well as knowledge transfer among ROW at the bottom of the supply chain. Besides fission and fusion reactors, for example,

Quantum messaging links China and Austria 2018
The world's first integrated quantum communication network 2021
China launches new satellite in ‘important step’ towards global quantum communications network 2022


Posted by: sln2002 | Aug 31 2023 19:30 utc | 60

@Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 15:55 utc | 5

There is a very fundamental level of racist and civilizational supremacy belief within the Western elites and the general population. We saw this in the 1980s and 1990s when Japanese car and electronics manufacturers threatened to dominate, even though the West thought they were only capable of cheap copying. The result was the rapid subjugation of the vassal, with voluntary export quotas, massive tariffs on memory chips and outright economic and financial war. The Japanese economy has spent three decades not recovering from this.

As China is not a vassal, cannot be easily subjugated, and has its own massive internal market, it is a much more intractable problem for the Western elites. Its amazing how fast their memory faded from the "yellow peril" (yes that term was really used) of the 1990s. Their racist and civilizationist beliefs are being slowly shattered, it is this destruction of their basic beliefs in how the world works and their place in it which will be the greatest threat to them - and by extension to the world depending upon their reaction to the realization of the new realities.

Posted by: Roger | Aug 31 2023 19:37 utc | 61

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 31 2023 18:29 utc | 49

I am merely pointing out that the rise of dependence on China has seemingly correlated with the attempt of full-spectrum dominance by the globalist elites in the west.

I don't pretend to understand international commerce, high finance etc. but have noticed the same seeming correlation. My guess is that the over-arching priority of the West’s dominant power networks, aka credit cartels, is ever-expanding financialization which they control. Hence they have gladly underwitten China's huge manufacturing rise though it hurt American working class families because as long as they get their cut from that offshore manufacturing whilst controlling access to Western markets, they maintain their overall Top Dog status.

Supposedly BRICS+ multipolarity is set to dethrone this cartel and replace it with Sovereign Peers using some sort of Round Table model, albeit without a King.

But this could be yet another Big Lie in that all that is really going on is a shift to a new configuration attuned to current reality with billions more world wide in the middle ‘consumer’ classes; they need a broader multi-national arrangement superseding independent nation states with overly quirky individual jurisdictions.

Nation states will remain sovereign enjoying their languages and customs but more skeins comprising the global financial and commercial tartan will be seamlessly braided together to form controlling reins such that this same financialization class will remain in place albeit now with an expanded, multi-national membership presiding over reconfigured, but still ‘sovereign,’ member States. Something like that.

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 31 2023 19:42 utc | 62

There used to be a commenter with user name "c1ue" (I think) who seemed quite knowledgeable about chip manufacturing and Fab technologies. I wonder what happened to them. Anyone knows?

PS I saved one of his comments somewhere - it pretty much predicted what's happening. I can dig it up probably later.

Posted by: Merlin2 | Aug 31 2023 19:44 utc | 63

@Merlin2 re: c1ue

He was a pompous hack. See upthread for corroboration. Dude tried to argue the superiority of proof-of-stake over proff-of-work in crypto currencies.

Posted by: Dr Wellington Yueh | Aug 31 2023 19:51 utc | 64

@nemesis#10. No one here expects you to believe anything, it’s all just info.

I don’t think China wants to replace the west. If the west at sunrise tomorrow morning decides to play well with others. Most if not all clown world shit goes the way of the T. rex .I think China and Russia and many other countries would gladly spend money on shit from our countries and do fair business . The west will still be “there” regardless. In the next few years the west will gain some plays well with others and join the global global community as equal parters, or it will become similar to the hunger games where certain areas were responsible for goods supplying oligarch areas

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Aug 31 2023 19:54 utc | 65

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 31 2023 19:42 utc | 62

############

Let's pray for the Muslims to win because they are the only Abrahamic faith that seriously rejects usury, and the Western Capitalist system relies on usury to scale.

Like taking away fiat currency would dramatically diminish the West, usury powers corporate Capitalism. Many of the prescriptions I read online are about addressing symptoms, and not fundamentals which would shift the game meaningfully.

And one doesn't have to be a Muslim. Usury is prohibited for Christians and Jews as well. They just don't follow it with any seriousness. Believe in God, except the parts that require sacrifice and effort ...

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 31 2023 19:58 utc | 66

i believe in Michael Hudson, but he's not god.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 31 2023 19:59 utc | 67

Tannenhouser | Aug 31 2023 19:54 utc | 66--

You're 100% correct: China has no goal "to replace the west." China's goal is its own development and modernization which it will accomplish via its BRI initiative and the outcomes of its associations with various multilateral organizations like SCO, BRICS, ASEAN, etc. It even announces those goals, but few in the West seem to listen. The main evidence that China has no goal to replace the West resides in the four distinct initiatives Xi's proposed over the last 18 months, particularly the Global Security Initiative (GSI) which clearly states no hegemony will be allowed, for hegemony of any type threatens indivisible security. Opposition by the West to China's GSI sends the RoW a clear signal that the West isn't interested in developing peaceful relations and wants to try and continue its waning hegemony.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 31 2023 20:15 utc | 68

@LoveDonbass | Aug 31 2023 19:58 utc | 67

Believe in God, except the parts that require sacrifice and effort ...

So it is like what the former Chinese

Posted by: LuRenJia | Aug 31 2023 20:24 utc | 69

Brilliant b, where can I get the phone here?
We are supposed to be the leaders in free trade aren’t we?
If I flew to China and bought one would it be illegal to posses in our collective waste?

Reminds me of when the British Empire insisted that only goods made here could be used in the Empire. Cotton, salt etc.

That gave us Gandhi, the Salt marches and village looms. It changed the world. That bloody empire died, mostly. It seems the American Century version is also going down the same path. Just faster.

Lol. The land of free enterprise is just as haggard as every old whore Euro inspired empire.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Aug 31 2023 20:32 utc | 70

Merlin2 | Aug 31 2023 19:44 utc | 63
A c1ue nom de guerre is making comments at Simplicius and SONAR.
(Coping similar flack to what it attracted here)

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 31 2023 20:34 utc | 71

it will become similar to the hunger games where certain areas were responsible for goods supplying oligarch areas Posted by: Tannenhouser | Aug 31 2023 19:54 utc | 66

The allegory of that story refers to the present. Mr Snow = Mr White; most of us with time to post here = people in The Capitol.

Posted by: Rae | Aug 31 2023 20:36 utc | 72

Apologize that I clicked the wrong button and submitted the previous post by mistake.

----

Believe in God, except the parts that require sacrifice and effort ...

So it sounds like Christian In-Name-Only and kind of hypocrite. If one Christian does not follow what the Bible says, how can one claim to be a Christian?! (Well, some may argue about the interpretation for what the Bible says...) IMHO, it requires true efforts internally and externally to be a true follower of any of today's major religions that values/promotes goodness and kindness.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Aug 31 2023 20:38 utc | 73

Thurl | Aug 31 2023 18:39 utc | 53
…capitalism is all about short term gain as opposed to the long term interests of the country/citizens.
…..? “something something… capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them." ― Vladimir Ilich Lenin?

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 31 2023 20:43 utc | 74

yeah thx b

interesting to see how dumb the self-proclaimed best&brightest are.
Zero understanding of what networks, long-term planning and Cybernetics on a socio-political level in fact mean.

Posted by: AG | Aug 31 2023 20:44 utc | 75

In 1970 I had an argument with an Argentinian engineer who contended that no country in this world could compete with Germany in the field of cameras and especially lenses. And I told him: raise your eyes and look further East, the Japanese are coming ... and did they!

Posted by: gatopreto | Aug 31 2023 20:58 utc | 76

The underlying lithography issue (https://www.techspot.com/news/95198-us-looks-hamper-chinese-chipmaking-ambitions-asml-sales.html) is significant, but we tend to overlook the importance of design. Smaller creates its own problems with trace antenna-ing and power leakage. Careful design is worth more than another 1 or 2 nm, although I can't quantify it. Also, we know that China is working on its own uv lithography and ASML is Dutch, which means there's always a right price with a bit of crafty. As for aircraft, worth remembering that the design cycle for commercial aircraft is close to 10 years from preliminary design to certification. Also their obsession is reliability, not processing speed - something that b previously pointed out has caused problems for the 737-MAXX FMC: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/boeings-software-fix-for-the-737-max-problem-overwhelms-the-planes-computer.html

Posted by: Tom Paine | Aug 31 2023 21:01 utc | 77

I am not arguing with your experience @acco nevertheless: are you sure?

are you really sure, that all the components of an airplane from raw materials like titanium to semiconductors is made in Europe? without any chinese or russian parts?
Posted by: Orgel | Aug 31 2023 17:57 utc | 41
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Orgel, the question you asked is 'can or could,' not restricted to present practice. Boeing may still have wings made for the 777 in Japan for all I know and likely more. The engines for Boeing planes will be provisioned based on the requirements of Boeing's customer, Rolls Royce, CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney. Plumbing, electrical interfaces and mechanical interfaces per engine mfg spec or possible aircraft mfg spec. Same for AirBus.

Where all the materials come from before they become a manufactured part or an assembly is anyone's guess. Even what goes into the avionics could be sourced from various parties all over the globe. If they need to be proven to be locally sourced some slight of hand is likely but the paperwork will certainly be correct. Securing rare earth materials will be a creative enterprise.

How Japan gets titanium or beryllium bearings for its assemblies is not an issue for Boeing as long as its supplier certifies 'made in Japan.' Micromanaging control over global trade is asking for a lot of confusion about proveny.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 31 2023 21:10 utc | 78

@b
"Just a few month back I argued that the new economic protectionism the U.S. is pushing for will fire back"

Editing: Only a few months ago I argued that America's new economic protectionism will backfire

Posted by: Patroklos | Aug 31 2023 21:17 utc | 79

“American exceptionalism” should be called what it truly is: hubris. Hubris—like pride—goeth before the fall.

Posted by: Rob | Aug 31 2023 21:33 utc | 80

Posted by: LuRenJia | Aug 31 2023 20:38 utc | 75

##########

We're all hypocrites. It's about acknowledging it and trying to do better. Some people are comfortable being a hypocrite and existing with unresolved cognitive dissonance.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 31 2023 21:56 utc | 81

They should call it XiPhone, I might buy one.

@Norwegian | Aug 31 2023 17:20 utc | 28

If they call it a CitiPhone, I will definitely buy one!

Posted by: Boris Badenov | Aug 31 2023 22:01 utc | 82

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 31 2023 20:34 utc | 73

Thanks. Alas, it's too time consuming to look at comments everywhere, even with scanning.

A commenter upthread mentioned people here had issues with "c1ue". I must have been absent when it happened, but it wouldn't surprise me if it involved some crypto back and forth. That one always seems to bring out the worst in people, for some strange reason.

In general, when one has certain expertise it is difficult to be patient when it is questioned. Have run into that problem often enough.

My own RoT: one must be humble especially when one's expertise is challenged or ignored. That's because the more expertise one has the more one realizes there's still much to be humble about. It can be a teachable moment. Me, I just think of elks locking horns and that's more than enough to get back down to earth.

Posted by: Merlin2 | Aug 31 2023 22:10 utc | 83

Posted by: too scents | Aug 31 2023 16:56 utc | 23

and Posted by: LuRenJia | Aug 31 2023 17:45 utc | 35

The article appears to be confusing 5G capable phone chipsets with 5nm chip fabrication technology.

And yes, as to its provenance, it's very suspicious and the use of the word "impossible" is deceptive if not propagandistic.

This site is buzzing with anger over the announcement. https://taiwan.postsen.com/business
And an identical article can be found here.

In any case, I'm not up to speed on AMSL's capabilities other than that they are uniquely able to provide the technology required for 5nm transistors. China does not have that ability at the present time, but to call it "impossible" is ridiculous. It's an eventuality. They may be playing catchup for quite some time if the West and Taiwan develop even smaller transistors, but to boldly claim that China will NEVER accomplish that is childish propaganda. SMIC recently achieved 7nm.

That said, 5G phone performance does not by definition require 5nm chip technology. And Huawei never bragged that they or SMIC had developed it either. The allegation that they have is apparently based on this loosely sourced statement from the article:

According to the mobile phone screenshots of netizens, Kirin is a 5nm process, but technical experts generally believe that the 9000S is not a 5nm process. It is SMIC’s N+2.

The Mate 60 has already been reverse "engineered" and it is confirmed to be using 7nm technology.


Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 31 2023 22:30 utc | 84

Welp, I just had a relatively long comment summarily and automatically flushed by MoA's server.

It was in response to tooscents and LuRenJia regarding the confusing article provided by the former. I found that "article" at multiple sites from Taiwan.

In fact it's almost purposely misleading and propagandistic. To claim that China will NEVER achieve 5nm is ridiculous and when the article says "Impossible" it smacks of propaganda.

In summary, there appears to be some confusion. 5nm chip technology is not absolutely required to achieve 5G mobile performance. The Mate 60 has been reverse engineered in Taiwan and is confirmed to be using 7nm tech, I believe implemented by SMIC. Huawei never said they have 5nm transistor capabilities and the claim at the base of the article was:

According to the mobile phone screenshots of netizens, Kirin is a 5nm process, but technical experts generally believe that the 9000S is not a 5nm process. It is SMIC’s N+2.

Mmmkay, screenshots of netizens and not even a single one shared in the article?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 31 2023 22:34 utc | 85

How Japan gets titanium or beryllium bearings for its assemblies is not an issue for Boeing as long as its supplier certifies 'made in Japan.' Micromanaging control over global trade is asking for a lot of confusion about proveny.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 31 2023 21:10 utc | 81

I don't think anyone is worried about provenance in the commercial field. What should be the concern is the sourcing of defense related parts. Should a shooting war break out between US and China (yikes!) we'll find out about foreign provenances very quickly. Here's article from last year showing the problem. The item involved is that model of reliability, good ol' F-35. the problem

Posted by: spindz | Aug 31 2023 22:34 utc | 86

remember reading article in asiatimes by Indrajit Bassu, 13 APRIL 2006
"China and the art of (standards) war"

let us say that the article was somewhat omniscient, but mistaken and misleading in many ways. (it was just 20 years ahead of its time)

its all about been about Intellectual Property, and 20 years or so ago China had little to no IP.
well its now 17 years later and we can see now where China is going, technologically speaking

in another 10 years it will be they who are the ones leading the way.(sanctions or no sanctions)

Posted by: chris m | Aug 31 2023 22:45 utc | 87

Thought Huawei had spun off its mobile phone division.

Anyhow, more powerful smartphones (as they're not construed) means more and more powerful microwaves blasting us all from towers and handsets.

Phones using subspace communications (a type of communication admitted to exist by the US military 100+ years ago) would be much more interesting.

Yes, they're being worked on, and of course, they'll still need processors, screens (AMOLED is hardly new; it's 40 old Kodak technology now largely controlled by Samsung and LG) and capacious storage, with good image sensors. So they'll look the same, but use point to point communications -- no towers, and no routers. Ah wait, ...

Posted by: Jay | Aug 31 2023 22:47 utc | 88

spindz, 89:

Do you really think that if--g-d help us--a real shooting war started between China and the USA that the US would rely on primitive airplanes to attack/destroy Chinese targets?

The US has had vastly more capable craft for decades; that's faster, more invisible to radar, and not reliant on jet engines. Russia has similar technology, and I imagine China is working on it.

Posted by: Jay | Aug 31 2023 22:51 utc | 89

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 31 2023 16:15 utc | 10

You're lumping a number of distinct barflys with distinct world views into a category of old guard leftists. Your analysis is screwed up, hence the confusion. The bar inst a monolith.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 31 2023 23:30 utc | 90

None of this is a surprise. The Gods first make mad those whom they would destroy. Or more properly, 'Evil appears as good in the minds of those whom God leads to destruction.'

The US has had vastly more capable craft for decades; that's faster, more invisible to radar, and not reliant on jet engines.

Tell me more of these wunderwaffen. Is this repurposed alien tech from Roswell?

Maerica relies on the F35 and outdated systems like the PATRIOT and of course Aegis. All trash compared to Russian kit, in my not so humble opinion of course.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 31 2023 23:45 utc | 91

The new Huawei phone is built around the SMIC Kirin 9000S CPU and is touted as 5nm technology. This still puts Chinese tech almost 5 years behind the west/Japan/South Korea.

Despite the horn-blowing and accolades from Antutu Benchmarking (a Hong Kong CHINA corporation,) the Kirin 9000S still performs LOWER THAN the Current Qualcomm Snapdragon Technology

Current Intel/AMD CPU Tech is 4nm with 3nm about to be rolled out. Intel plans on integrating 1.8nm into it SoC line come late 2024.

SMIC is able to manufacture at 5nm because the Sublime Brandon Administration RELEASED Licensing on it to SMIC 2 years ago, allowing them to change to exposure elements that are needed for 5nm tech.

THE EXPOSURE ELEMENTS ARE NOT MANUFACTURED IN CHINA. OR RUSSIA.

And the current technology exposure equipment IS NOT AVAILABLE TO CHINA, nor can they manufacture it. Even if the equipment was available to China, it would be another 4-5 years before they could actually manufacture 4nm chips.

Chinese press even stated it. They said, " Making 4G technology work for 5G."

The reality is that this great leap forward in Huawei, and any future leaps, are still subject to United States approval.

Posted by: JHW | Aug 31 2023 23:50 utc | 92

Maerican military technology is the absolute undisputed global leader in one area...cost.

The reality is that this great leap forward in Huawei, and any future leaps, are still subject to United States approval.

How trite. Does this pass as analysis somewhere?

How long do you think Maerica can cockblock China in this hamfisted way for? Is it not inevitable that China will overcome Maerica in chip fabrication despite these efforts to slow their progress? And given thats the case, ain't Maerica just burning up goodwill in trying to stay king of the hill just a little longer, when they could be building a constructive relationship? To the idiots who rule Maerica its all a zero sum game.

Seems counterproductive especially when you can't win the war you're lusting after with China. But what do I know, Maerica is 'exceptional'.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 31 2023 23:58 utc | 93

Posted by: JHW | Aug 31 2023 23:50 utc | 95

But WHERE is it touted as 5nm and by WHOM? I can find only rumors, unsubstantiated. Certainly Huawei and SMIC are not saying that.

Also we know it ISN'T 5nm tech, but since when is 5nm tech "five years behind"?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Sep 1 2023 0:00 utc | 94

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 31 2023 22:34 utc | 88

"In any case, I'm not up to speed on AMSL's capabilities other than that they are uniquely able to provide the technology required for 5nm transistors. China does not have that ability at the present time, but to call it "impossible" is ridiculous. It's an eventuality. They may be playing catchup for quite some time if the West and Taiwan develop even smaller transistors, but to boldly claim that China will NEVER accomplish that is childish propaganda. SMIC recently achieved 7nm."

AMSL manufactures, and owns the technology, for the lithography exposure equipment that allows chips to be manufactured at such small specifications (Angstrom size).

SMIC was licensed by AMSL, in 2021 after approval by the Sublime Brandon Administration, to produce 5nm tech and given the specifics on retooling their lithography to support it. 5nm is the limit of SMIC's equipment and they would require new AMSL lithography equipment to grow smaller ICs.


Despite China's propensity for co-opting technology, they are still at least 10+ years away from developing the tech to make their own lithography exposure equipment.

Even if they were to receive licensing and new equipment, 4nm tech and smaller is still 4-5 years away for SMIC and China.

Unfortunately, without either outright theft of equipment and technology, or significant outside support, it is quite possible that China won't catch up in this race, until after Moore's Law takes hold and a completely different technology becomes the dominant market driver.

Posted by: JHW | Sep 1 2023 0:08 utc | 95

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Sep 1 2023 0:00 utc | 97

"But WHERE is it touted as 5nm and by WHOM? I can find only rumors, unsubstantiated. Certainly Huawei and SMIC are not saying that."

As I has mentioned in my post 95 - "SMIC is able to manufacture at 5nm because the Sublime Brandon Administration RELEASED Licensing on it to SMIC 2 years ago, allowing them to change to exposure elements that are needed for 5nm tech."

Ads Post 98 - "SMIC was licensed by AMSL, in 2021 after approval by the Sublime Brandon Administration, to produce 5nm tech and given the specifics on retooling their lithography to support it."

The tech is there and the Huawei Pro 60 is likely their first foray with it.

"Also we know it ISN'T 5nm tech, but since when is 5nm tech "five years behind"?"

Intel and AMD both released 4nm technology CPUs in 2018. AMSL is trying to hook AMD into 3nm for 20224 but they haven't changed planning from 4nm.

Intel MAY do 3nm in CPUs in 2024. They are working it integrate 1.8nm in to their SoCs in late 2024.

So YES, 5nm IS 5 years behind current tech.

Posted by: JHW | Sep 1 2023 0:21 utc | 96

There’s *no* connection, right?. Right??
1- “National service for teens: Farage asks 'are you really going to put every 16-year-old in khaki?'”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8loCjQMLPY
[[Outward Bound meets Duke of Edinburg Award]]

2-“By the end of this decade, we're likely to be at war' | Previous Defence Secretary Ben Wallace”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIt6kG7GWns
~~~~~~~
Here’s Why U.S. Wants To Invade Mexico - Yes MEXICO!
The Jimmy Dore Show (5min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQ6ecv0OdN4
[Bonus, a quick quip tour thru Bolivia, Afghanistan and Vietnam]

Trump: Let’s keep the [Syrian] oil. BidenAdmin: Let’s go-git everyone’s everything.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 1 2023 0:27 utc | 97

@JHW re: "Unfortunately, without either outright theft of equipment and technology, or significant outside support, it is quite possible that China won't catch up in this race, until after Moore's Law takes hold and a completely different technology becomes the dominant market driver."

Eh...too effing late. They're already considerably ahead on graphene devices.

Posted by: Dr Wellington Yueh | Sep 1 2023 0:31 utc | 98

@99

Name this purported Intel Core CPU tech generation released in 2018 on 4nm. It would be fascinating to learn of this phantom generation given that the most recent raptor lake gen which taped out in 2022 is rebranded 10nm

Posted by: J D | Sep 1 2023 0:38 utc | 99

Phones using subspace communications (a type of communication admitted to exist by the US military 100+ years ago) would be much more interesting.

Posted by: Jay | Aug 31 2023 22:47 utc | 91

The US has had vastly more capable craft for decades; that's faster, more invisible to radar, and not reliant on jet engines. Russia has similar technology, and I imagine China is working on it.

Posted by: Jay | Aug 31 2023 22:51 utc | 92

Really? I like science fiction as much as the next person, but lets be serious here. In this dimension subspace only exists as a theoretical concept, with no experimental basis in reality. And super secret craft that don't use jet engines, and are possessed by all three world powers? How did you come by these factoids?

Extraordinary claims such as yours require extraordinary proof. Please provide links to support these two claims if you can. Or better yet stop by my house in one of these craft and take me for a ride, I'll pack a lunch.

(While unlikely, its possible that you've slipped here from an alternate reality, where these things are true. If that is the case please leave us detailed specifications before you return.)

Posted by: spindz | Sep 1 2023 0:59 utc | 100

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