Big Serge On The Summer Campaign In Ukraine

August 30, 2023

Big Serge has a long read about the state of the war in Ukraine which I recommend to read. It is a nice recap of the whole war and the ballyhooed counter-offensive:

Escaping Attrition: Ukraine Rolls the Dice
The Zaporizhia Summer Blockbuster

After concluding that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has evidently failed, he dares a look into the future:

So, whence goes the war from here? Well, the obvious question to ask is whether we believe Ukraine will ever have a more potent assault package than the one they started the summer with. The answer clearly seems to be no. It was like pulling teeth to scrape together these understrength brigades – the idea that, following on a defeat in the Battle of Zaporizhia, NATO will somehow put together a more powerful package seems like a stretch. More to the point, we have American officials saying fairly explicitly that this was the best mechanized package Ukraine was going to get.

It does not seem controversial to say that this was Ukraine’s best shot at some sort of genuine operational victory, which at this point seems to be slowly trickling away into modest but materially costly tactical advances. The ultimate implication of this is that Ukraine is unable to escape a war of industrial attrition, which is precisely the sort of war that it cannot win, due to all the asymmetries that we mentioned earlier.

In particular, however, Ukraine cannot win a positional-attritional war because of its own maximalist definition of “winning.” Since Kiev has insisted that it will not give up until it returns its 1991 borders, an inability to dislodge Russian forces poses a particularly nasty problem – Kiev will either need to admit defeat and acknowledge Russian control over the annexed areas, or it will continue to fight obstinately until it is a failed state with nothing left in the tank.

Trapped in a bat fight, with attempts to unlock the front with maneuver coming to naught, what Ukraine needs most is a much bigger bat. The alternative is a totalizing strategic disaster.

Pushed by the U.S. the Ukrainian leadership seems to have decided to go for the alternative.

Also a good read is:

The Case for Negotiating with Russia – The New Yorker

Not that Biden will go for it, but it is important that such pieces are now coming up.

Posted by on August 30, 2023 at 11:56 UTC | Permalink

Comments

@201 Engineer-John, if you say so, but wasn’t he waddling out expecting to be nato head?
Anyway the glorious comedy geniuses of the RF foreign office are a hoot
‘ ⚡️ “Agent 006 ingloriously left the battlefield” : Zakharova said goodbye to Ben Wallace
“Let’s say goodbye to the character responsible for the contamination of Ukrainian lands with radiation through the supply of shells with depleted uranium to the Kiev regime,” wrote the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
#source
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community’
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/61068
Meanwhile we get ShapShifter shithead further into the dog days of our fascist government as it tries to hand over to the Great Knight Dope Starmer to maintain the illusion of a multiparty democracy – pretty pointless as most are now realising there is only a uni party.
A little too late.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Aug 31 2023 9:20 utc | 201

I fear we are headed for escalation. The west is testing testing testing how Russia will respond. We all know if smarts doesn’t prevail nuclear attacks will. How sad and dumb are humans.

Posted by: Inki | Aug 31 2023 9:26 utc | 202

“Russia will never be forgiven for giving birth to the Soviets, where for the first time in history the masses had seized and held state power – the historic nightmare of the ruling class.”
That certainly didn’t make many friends amongst USA elites and its Euro and Asian groupies, BUT, it’s totally irrelevant right now, when Russia also has an economic system that respects private property and encourage capital formation
I disagree, Wall Street, the elite, financed the Russian revolution.
“Wall Street and the Bolshevik Revolution: The Remarkable True Story of the American Capitalists Who Financed the Russian Communists Paperback – December 20, 2012” by Anthony Sutton
“Sutton comes to conclusions that are uncomfortable for many businessmen and economists. For this reason, his work tends to be either dismissed out of hand as ‘extreme’ or, more often, simply ignored.” ―Richard Pipes, Baird Professor Emeritus of History, Harvard University (from Survival Is Not Enough: Soviet Realities and America’s Future)
Why did the 1917 American Red Cross Mission to Russia include more financiers than medical doctors? Rather than caring for the victims of war and revolution, its members seemed more intent on negotiating contracts with the Kerensky government and, subsequently, the Bolshevik regime.
In a courageous investigation, Antony Sutton establishes tangible historical links between Russian communists and US capitalists. Drawing on US state department files, personal papers of key Wall Street figures, biographies, and conventional histories, Sutton reveals:
The role of Morgan banking executives in funneling illegal Bolshevik gold into the US.
The co-option of the American Red Cross by powerful Wall Street forces.
The intervention by Wall Street sources to free the Marxist revolutionary Leon Trotsky, whose aim was to topple the Russian government.
The deals made by major corporations to capture the huge Russian market a decade and a half before the US recognized the Soviet regime.
The secret sponsoring of Communism by leading businessmen, who publicly championed free enterprise.
Wall Street and the Bolshevik Revolution traces the foundations of Western funding of the Soviet Union. Dispassionately, and with overwhelming documentation, the author details a crucial phase in the establishment of Communist Russia.

Posted by: canuck | Aug 31 2023 9:27 utc | 203

Posted by: Stierlitz | Aug 31 2023 9:39 utc | 204

My #139 and your false replication of it in your #146 is misrepresentation of the highest order.
Posted by: SCCC | Aug 31 2023 8:29 utc | 193
To ALL:
Poster SCCC is correct. The poster Dr. George W. Oprisko did in fact change the wording that SCCC used.
From this:

If it’s not too big an ask, people, please use accurate qualifiers when summing up whole populations — eg, some, many, those Donbass residents we spoke to, etc. Russia is so vast. There is no way to say “what Russians think”. There may well be “many Russians” not thinking the same. In fact, I’d wager that most Russians think only what they’re fed by the 6 o’clock news … just as in most other countries. A street poll in Vladivostok, Omsk or St Petersberg would give a totally different picture.

To this:

If it’s not too big an ask, people, please use accurate qualifiers when summing up whole populations –There is no way to say “what Americans think”. There may well be “many Americans” not thinking the same. In fact, I’d wager that most Americans think only what they’re fed by the 6 o’clock news … just as in NATo countries. A street poll in Chicago, Albany or St Petersberg, Florida would give a totally different picture.

That is blatantly dishonest.
Regardless of who may or may not be a troll (or whatever) that should not be tolerated in this bar!

Posted by: waynorinorway | Aug 31 2023 9:40 utc | 205

canuck 204
All roads lead to Rome. Allmpolitical choices are run by the single USUKIS mafia. Communism places all state
resources handily for plundering in one single location. Capitalism hijacks morality to the pointless acquisition of money. Islamism is a parasite on capitalism , thereby riding capitalism’s moral lack of compass.
I hate to think what Christianity, the vicarious transfer of personal guilt to an imaginary , drone-type, fly – everywhere Jesus pbuh, who has ( not ) decided to take personal.blame for everything everywhere. Repeat NOT.

Posted by: Giyane | Aug 31 2023 9:48 utc | 206

Posted by: canuck | Aug 31 2023 9:27 utc | 204
What we never forgave the Soviets was that they actually eliminated their former ruling class. That was not in the plans.
As for the US financing the revolution. That is what the US does. On one hand, try to overthrow the government. On the other, buy the leaders – or whatever else they can get their hands on. Make a killing, both ways.
They did it back then, they do it today. Russia and China are ongoing examples. Lots of further examples in Africa, South America, Southeast Asia, …

Posted by: Martina | Aug 31 2023 9:59 utc | 207

Slavyangrad
Medvedev’s mathematics:
THE SUBTRACTION PROBLEM (Revisiting the dwindling population of a country in decline)
I’d like to revisit the discussion about the population size of “Ukraine.” Based on simple arithmetic, this “country” has had a mythical past, a grim present, and an uncertain future.
1- Let’s recall that in 2001, according to the population census, about 48.5 million people resided in “Ukraine.” However, many were working abroad and only had registered their residency at home.
2 – In 2014, Crimea and Donbass separated, resulting in a decline in the population.
3 – The “Ukrainian Institute of the Future,” an analytical organization, states that as of February 2022, the permanent population of Ukraine was 37.6 million people. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine also supports this figure based on the electronic census of 2019, which counted 37.289 million.
3 – The ongoing issue today is the continuous exodus of the population from “Nezalezhnaya” due to the country’s aggressive nature, poverty, and threats to life. This is acknowledged not only by Ukrainian services but also by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. While some data might be inflated and others underestimated, the trend is unmistakable.
5 – According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, post-February 24, 2022, around 8.6 million people from the “Independent” are residing in European states, including 2.869 million people in Russia. However, discrepancies exist in our country’s statistics. As of early February 2022, 1.9 million Ukrainian citizens were in Russia for school or work. According to our law enforcement agencies, more than 5.2 million people from this “country” arrived in Russia after February 24, 2022. This totals up to around 7.1 million people. The UN didn’t account for an additional 4.2 million Ukrainians who left, viewing Greater Russia as their historical homeland.
6 – Moving on, based on civil-military administrations and statistical services, approximately 5.1 million people reside in the territories of Zaporozhye, Kherson, DPR, and LPR after February 24, 2022. These areas aren’t under Kiev’s control and aren’t factored into its statistics.
7 – Therefore, by 2022, the mentioned 37 million population has significantly decreased, with only about half remaining within “Ukraine,” and even that is mostly on paper. When accounting for the current population in regions not controlled by Kiev, emigrants, etc., the numbers are disheartening. Specifically, the population in Kiev-controlled territories is around 19.7 million, while outside the country, it’s approximately 17.9 million.
Essentially, this means that only half of the 37 million from 2022 and about 40% of the population from (2001) are still present (In the current Ukraine proper).
It’s possible that some individuals might return, though it’s hard to believe. The trend of decline is evident. With so many citizens leaving, the Kiev regime and its “Ukraine” will soon face significant challenges, both in terms of governance and defense.
Hence, the most prominent number in Ukrainian reports seems to be 404, akin to a computer error code: people have departed, and the country is struggling to be found.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Aug 31 2023 10:05 utc | 208

DunGroanin | Aug 31 2023 9:20 utc | 202
*** Meanwhile we get ShapShifter shithead further into the dog days of our fascist government as it tries to hand over to the Great Knight Dope Starmer to maintain the illusion of a multiparty democracy – pretty pointless as most are now realising there is only a uni party.***
Beware the possibility of a (new ‘Lord’ Sunak having retired to California) Starmer / Mordaunt coalition in the once “British” US-base peripheral “country” next year?

Posted by: Cynic | Aug 31 2023 10:06 utc | 209

Attrition until the parties are even 😉 :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs

Posted by: frenchybutchic | Aug 31 2023 10:06 utc | 210

Western Europe will never forgive the Soviets to have been feminist avant l’ heure…

Posted by: Minaa | Aug 31 2023 10:12 utc | 211

Patrick Lancaster: What Russians really think of the U.S. and Ukraine war
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2M69_Xksy9E
Posted by: Tiano | Aug 30 2023 17:32 utc | 67
Thanks for posting the Patrick Lancaster video (26′ long), Tiano. The girl in green had about the most lucid analysis of the war I’ve heard in a long time. It would be nice to have more of this on these Ukraine threads and less off-topic bickering and uninformed speculation. It is clear, by the way, that Russians are much better informed about the war than is claimed in Western MSM – and are also better informed than the Western public. But I think many of us here already suspected that.

Posted by: B. Wildered | Aug 31 2023 10:12 utc | 212

When was America not a full-fledged Banana Republic?
Posted by: Colin | Aug 31 2023 5:13 utc | 181
You still have much to learn Colin the Undergrad. Keep trying though…

Posted by: James M. | Aug 31 2023 10:15 utc | 213

waynorinorway | Aug 31 2023 9:40 utc | 206, I think you and SCCC missed the point of the alteration by the Doc.
I imagine that SCCC is very annoyed at the Doc’s accusations, which is understandable. However, the substitution of ‘Americans’ for ‘Russians’ was, I think, intended to illustrate the fatuousness of SCCC’s reasoning in an attempt to undermine a Russian survey.

Posted by: Lantern Dude | Aug 31 2023 10:31 utc | 214

Posted by: DunGroanin | Aug 31 2023 8:55 utc | 199
I doubt the report is true, unless the Turkish intelligence services are leaking classified NATO information to open source publications, because it would be all risk, little if any reward. More than likely somebody has created a narrative that is beneficial to them, plenty of state and non-state actors profiting from a continuation/ escalation of the war, Turkey being an obvious example.
Even if this secret operation were exposed, that’s a lot of support and assets to mount a relatively ineffectual attack that reveals potentially new capabilities or methods to the Russia that can then be countered.
Too many people make the mistake of equating the abundance of open source information with their veracity, wanting to believe they have a better understanding of the conflict than they do, or picking and choosing those sources that confirm pre-conceived narratives. Predicting anything about this conflict, using unclassified material, is equivalent to driving a car with only a periscope to see through and a ten second delay before any of the controls operate, as the regular edited updates are already out of date the moment they’re released. We can say with certainty that the original Ukrainian plan for the offensive has failed completely and that it’s objectives are now far less ambitious, meaning it’s only operational impact has been to reduce any future options for Ukraine, whilst conversely increasing those of Russia. The iron rules of warfare again in play, the only real certainty in this conflict.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 31 2023 10:39 utc | 215

“I doubt the report is true, unless the Turkish intelligence services are leaking classified NATO information to open source publications, because it would be all risk, little if any reward.”
Unless NATO goal is to have Russia attack thrm or a third party.
Their war is not going well. So this could be their goal. To expand the war and force them to get directly involved.
I think there’s high probability of this.
Another goal could be to slowly normalize this type of attack. Which also there’s high probability of.

Posted by: Comandante | Aug 31 2023 11:00 utc | 216

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/60987

The attack on the Pskov airfield was inflicted from the territory of Ukraine, and nothing is surprising in this
When the first news about the attack on the Pskov airfield had just arrived, a lot of exotic versions immediately appeared on the Web, one better than the other. Either it was a strike directly from the territory of Estonia, or the Ukrainians drove the bulk carrier into the Baltic Sea and launched drones directly from it.
Unfortunately, all this is just an attempt to justify to ourselves how it happened that the enemy was able to hit targets at a distance of 800 km in our deep rear. And even more, unfortunately – this is not surprising. And we will have to live with it and work further.
Firstly, the declared range of the Beaver drones is 800 km. Through some manipulations, it can be brought up to 1000 km. That is, in principle, the enemy can even reach out to St. Petersburg or even Kazan – not to mention Pskov.
Secondly, as we have written, low-flying UAVs made of wood or composite materials are an inconvenient target for air defense. To ensure reliable detection, tracking, and defeat of such drones, we need a multiple number of radars (backed up by a system of visual observation of the sky, as during the Second World War), air defense systems, and cannon air defense systems (which are backed up by groups of “hunters” with small arms weapons). All this must be correctly distributed throughout the vast territory of Western, Southern, and Central Russia.
To be frank, it will take almost more human, industrial, and financial resources to ensure that such strikes do not happen again than it would to simply deal with Ukraine.
There will be no peaceful solution. We don’t have a rear in which you can relax and not think about security – the enemy can strike everywhere. All these are clear and transparent maxims, and the sooner we accept them and begin to live by them, the easier it will be for us to win.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 31 2023 11:06 utc | 217

Posted by: Pacfica Advocate | Aug 31 2023 1:47 utc | 161

I don’t know if this has been mentioned before but 4 or 5 days ago Pepe Escobar revealed in an a recorded interview that his sources in Russia have told him that Russia will initiate a “huge” (or some such word) offensive some time in September.

I doubt there’ll ever be a “big offensive” from Russia.
There’s no logical sense in doing one.
There’s no single concentration of AFU power worth massing forces and resources against that would deal a coup de grace against the regime.
It’s all dispersed along a “line” of defense now.
The Cancer is dispersed not neatly packaged in a tumour.
Any single mass offensive will merely squander resources better kept in reserve to handle any potential surprise attack from NATO.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 11:07 utc | 218

Posted by: canuck | Aug 31 2023 9:27 utc | 204

I disagree, Wall Street, the elite, financed the Russian revolution.

Completely irrelevant reply.
The USA and its groupies have every reason to try weakening Russia in these times because Russia can destroy them. No Hegemon that has any self-respect would allow an independent nation with the capacity to detroy it to carry on growing and becoming stronger. The Hegemon has to do something. Ukraine is something, so the hegemon does Ukraine. It’s schoolyard logic and it applies very well to geopolitics.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 31 2023 11:12 utc | 219

Slavyangrad telegram channel reposts Medvedev’s analysis of Ukraine’s current population in English..
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/61065
THE SUBTRACTION PROBLEM (Revisiting the dwindling population of a country in decline)
I’d like to revisit the discussion about the population size of “Ukraine.” Based on simple arithmetic, this “country” has had a mythical past, a grim present, and an uncertain future.
1- Let’s recall that in 2001, according to the population census, about 48.5 million people resided in “Ukraine.” However, many were working abroad and only had registered their residency at home.
2 – In 2014, Crimea and Donbass separated, resulting in a decline in the population.
3 – The “Ukrainian Institute of the Future,” an analytical organization, states that as of February 2022, the permanent population of Ukraine was 37.6 million people. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine also supports this figure based on the electronic census of 2019, which counted 37.289 million.
3 – The ongoing issue today is the continuous exodus of the population from “Nezalezhnaya” due to the country’s aggressive nature, poverty, and threats to life. This is acknowledged not only by Ukrainian services but also by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. While some data might be inflated and others underestimated, the trend is unmistakable.
5 – According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, post-February 24, 2022, around 8.6 million people from the “Independent” are residing in European states, including 2.869 million people in Russia. However, discrepancies exist in our country’s statistics. As of early February 2022, 1.9 million Ukrainian citizens were in Russia for school or work. According to our law enforcement agencies, more than 5.2 million people from this “country” arrived in Russia after February 24, 2022. This totals up to around 7.1 million people. The UN didn’t account for an additional 4.2 million Ukrainians who left, viewing Greater Russia as their historical homeland.
6 – Moving on, based on civil-military administrations and statistical services, approximately 5.1 million people reside in the territories of Zaporozhye, Kherson, DPR, and LPR after February 24, 2022. These areas aren’t under Kiev’s control and aren’t factored into its statistics.
7 – Therefore, by 2022, the mentioned 37 million population has significantly decreased, with only about half remaining within “Ukraine,” and even that is mostly on paper. When accounting for the current population in regions not controlled by Kiev, emigrants, etc., the numbers are disheartening. Specifically, the population in Kiev-controlled territories is around 19.7 million, while outside the country, it’s approximately 17.9 million. Essentially, this means that only half of the 37 million from 2022 and about 40% of the population from the early 21st century are still present.
It’s possible that some individuals might return, though it’s hard to believe. The trend of decline is evident. With so many citizens leaving, the Kiev regime and its “Ukraine” will soon face significant challenges, both in terms of governance and defense.
Hence, the most prominent number in Ukrainian reports seems to be 404, akin to a computer error code: people have departed, and the country is struggling to be found.
With thousands emigrating elsewhere monthly, it’s most likely the current population is ~15 million or less, with the majority being pensioners….
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 31 2023 11:22 utc | 220

Slavyangrad telegram channel’s view of the Ukie summer offensive….
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/61066
Soon the three-month anniversary of the strangest offensive in world military history: the great, weak and, like everything Ukrainian, senseless, mediocre, merciless Khokhlyatsky counteroffensive.
But it is already possible to sum up the summer results:
1) They didn’t advance, by and large, anywhere, except for a couple of lifeless villages.
2) We lost the Black Sea along with the grain deal, and the opportunity to receive military equipment by water;
3) The equipment received from NATO burns faster than it can be replaced (they are forced to take great care and send the Vsushniks for slaughter, with junk or even with machine guns for mines and tanks)
4) Generals and officers are also melting, both Ukrainian and overseas. Even a new sign appeared, as soon as they get together, a Russian rocket immediately flies at them, to say hello;
5) F-16 planes never arrived, only promises.
6) Capable pilots
theoretically trained on the F-16 are being destroyed. The semi-mythical hero “Juice” flew to Bandera, along with two brothers;
7) At the last NATO summit, Zelensky is an outcast and received nothing but promises;
8) Zelensky is no longer the main person and speaker in the West, on the contrary, there are more and more articles and conversations, what will happen if Zelensky dies, who will take his place?
9) A split occurred in the elite of Ukraine, called Syrsky and Zaluzhny. The signal from the West has been received, the country is preparing for the elections, and writing off all the failures, including the counteroffensive, is the main bid for victory in the 2024 presidential race;
10) In the West, proposals for peace are sounding louder, different options, from lost territories for the right to be in NATO, to peace at any cost. But the need for peace is already obvious to everyone. The West is tired, the armories are empty. Need a break.
The situation on all fronts in Ukraine is deteriorating: the military, political, economic are heated to the limit. Not a single goal of the counteroffensive was achieved, only continuous failures.
And yes, the reason for the unsuccessful counterattack was revealed – tall grass and bushes. This is not a joke, but a British intelligence statement.
Yes, tall grass…. I never thought of that…
INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 31 2023 11:24 utc | 221

@220 “No Hegemon that has any self-respect would allow an independent nation with the capacity to detroy it to carry on growing and becoming stronger.”
Your idea , in my humble opinion, is much too simple. I am confident that you are aware of Thucydides trap? Whereas Athens (US) was worried about competition from an aspiring Hegemon, Sparta (Russia) so they went to war with Sparta and her allies-Corinth- in Sicily in the Peloponnesian war- 413-415 BC.
The war sapped the strength of both Sparta and Athens allowing Macedon (China) under Phillip III and Alexander the Great to become the new Hegemon.
Same thing happened in the 7th century- The Eastern Roman Empire and Persia in the 7th century weakening them both and the Arabs, the Muslims, became the Hegemon.
I would suggest you study these hostorucal processes and I believe ypou would change your opinion.

Posted by: canuck | Aug 31 2023 11:35 utc | 222

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 11:07 utc | 219
surprice attack from nato?
ridicolous!
nato members ve other problems than attacking mother russia
they re happy with using retarded ukronazis for their proxy war against
therefore they ve reserved gigantic funds for next 10 years
russia must kick off a huge offensive and annex more territory to ve a effective longlasting buffer vs ukros

Posted by: tesla | Aug 31 2023 11:54 utc | 223

Judging by further reports, AFU advance has been deflected away from Robotyne toward Verbove.
It seems their counter-offensive is taking the path of least resistance. They were deflected away from Verbove as a too hard nut to crack, were absorbed east of Novopokrovske, and are now trying to advance toward Verbove. The defense line runs through the middle of Verbove village. Verbove is a very long village in the NW -SE direction, which makes it difficult to assault, along the long, narrow axis.
AFU is not in control where they are going, rather, RU is channeling their advance by forming a strong point in Verbove, Novopokrovske and now the offensive is directed to the south-east direction.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 31 2023 12:03 utc | 224

In response to Arch Bungle@219,
It might be “huge” in the sense of incorporating offensive operations aimed at securing territory along several major sections on the line of conflict, rather than measured by troop and equipment concentration. One hears a lot from Russian war correspondents in different sectors about how there are significant gaps and shortages forming in Ukrainian defenses, even as the intensity of battle subsides. I get the impression that a less risk-averse military would have exploited this development more fully already — at least, some Russian analysts seem to want to get that impression across.

Posted by: Skiffer | Aug 31 2023 12:11 utc | 225

It might be “huge” in the sense of incorporating offensive operations aimed at securing territory along several major sections on the line of conflict, rather than measured by troop and equipment concentration. One hears a lot from Russian war correspondents in different sectors about how there are significant gaps and shortages forming in Ukrainian defenses, even as the intensity of battle subsides. I get the impression that a less risk-averse military would have exploited this development more fully already — at least, some Russian analysts seem to want to get that impression across.
Posted by: Skiffer | Aug 31 2023 12:11 utc | 226

If that is true, the cracks occur first and then one place after the other will start collapsing. It depends on what point of time RU wants to start a more-or-less general advance, but there is no reason to expect the gap issue getting any better but worse, over time.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 31 2023 12:15 utc | 226

@ Posted by: canuck | Aug 31 2023 9:27 utc | 204
Re “Wall Street and the Bolshevik Revolution: The Remarkable True Story of the American Capitalists Who Financed the Russian Communists Paperback – December 20, 2012” by Anthony Sutton
Well there we have it another major dot that reveals the whole picture by looking at the wider timeframe. That’s the first I’ve heard of that book or historian- so I guess will have to go find it.
Would have been useful a few years ago before I took the hard trail finding the same linkages.
Does Sutton thereby explain that Lenin must have been a Bankers moll?
Does that explain why he was ousted by Stalin and his last act was the creation of the Ukraine by enlarging that territory? For the Bankers main plan of that strategic land.
Which would explain exactly why we are here today , why the Ukraine and why Crimea.
It would also explain why the same financiers built the Nazism of Germany from the ashes of the failed walk in the park takeover of their grand prize after centuries of trying … only to have it snatched away by pesky Stalin… and why therefore Stalin was the target of WW2.
Just as Putin is the target of this escapade.
Why the U.K. , the perennial Great Gamers, always charging light brigades into Russian canons, getting blown to smithereens , forever turning places into meat grinders for their latest proxy mercenary.
It explains the chuminess of our dynastic aristo military and civil servants, academics and politicians with the Banderists , the hard core propaganda that turned our barely out of lockdown population into the modern sieg heiling , Nazi worshipping , slava-ing bullshit.
The lockdowns, masking, endless pointless vaxxing was the Pavlovian training to accept what we are told – support the Nazis in Ukraine; Hate all things Russian etc. a project that was going mainstream ever since the Maidan. The football worldcup distracting , Novichok – the racism and xenophobia against Russia. The Admirals touring the City telling publishers to go anti Putin!
Which was what alerted me to think there was something amiss and started me on that trail.
So yes I do think it highly likely that our dumb Masters and dumber Special Forces types have been behind The Bridge, The Pipeline, The Sea Drones and now the attack on The Airfield nearer to the Baltic than the Black Sea. The Scandynoir actions if you will !
The “It’s Done” breathless excitement of Truss reporting to her line managers.
The lies and losses are catching up, without any cover of victory’ hence why the rats are jumping ship, leaving the runts to big it up.
Grant Shaps is just another lying turd who has come up the greasy pole – from lying businessmen with fake names (Michael Green if I recall correctly) cheating buyers on the internet to getting onto the political gravy train – harassing young deluded Tories into suicidal thoughts, running the BrexShit busses – now just being thrown through the various ministries so that he can be installed as the future tory backbencher , once the experiment of all the non-white tory faces is a over and GND Starmer – the jailer of Assange – installed.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Aug 31 2023 12:21 utc | 227

https://www.thedailybeast.com/americas-in-much-better-shape-than-you-think
Highlighted on Drudge today. Did you know that Ukraine has won one unimaginable victory after another?
Literally true, perhaps as many of us actually can’t imagine these ‘victories’ much less confirm them factually. However, the dangerous narrative continues: “Ukraine is winning”. The 700 – 1000 KIA per day is an irrelevant detail.

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 31 2023 12:24 utc | 228

Future Tory leader – not backbencher.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Aug 31 2023 12:24 utc | 229

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Aug 31 2023 10:05 utc | 209 “Essentially, this means that only half of the 37 million from 2022”
These sources all disagree with that number:
This gives a number in the mid 30 millions for 2023: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/UKR/ukraine/population
This says about 34 millions in Ukraine in 2023: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-demography-second-year-full-fledged-war
This has a number in high 30 millions in 2023: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ukraine-population/

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 31 2023 12:24 utc | 230

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 31 2023 11:24 utc | 222 “At the last NATO summit, Zelensky is an outcast and received nothing but promises;”
This week the US announced sending another $250 million in weapons to Ukraine. That included 155mm rounds. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-announces-new-military-assistance-package-ukraine-valued-250-million-2023-08-29/
Sweden announced $314 million in weapons to Ukraine last week. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-prepares-314-mln-military-support-package-ukraine-2023-08-15/
Germany sent a package of aid this week. https://news.yahoo.com/germany-delivers-10-leopard-1-210222674.html
Finland announced aid yesterday. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/08/29/finland-additional-military-aid-ukraine/
You might change your argument on this point to something along the line that Ukraine is not getting enough aid to matter “received nothing but promises” is false.

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 31 2023 12:36 utc | 231

I have trouble even clicking (my fingers freeze) onto anything called “New Yorker” but before I read Big Serge, I thought I should say that Dima says the attack on Pskov airport came from Estonia. he also mentions a warship in the Baltic. Very grave implications and also a confirmation that any Russian offensive will be in the North.
Posted by: Stierlitz | Aug 31 2023 9:39 utc | 205
Dima’s “Military Summary” is funny. Spending a lot of analysis on some part of the battle front, then missing a whole lot of other fronts. After a while, wait a minute, why the fronts he consistently did not report now is closer to Kupiansk?
He also likes to make statements without basis, kind of grating on the ear.
Having stopped watching his video. Sad, but have better things to do.

Posted by: kitaySupporter | Aug 31 2023 12:40 utc | 232

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 31 2023 12:36 utc | 232
Yeah, but the issue with these packages is most of them are “ammunition”, which is absolutely a basic necessity to continue war. The rest of the stuff are dribs and drabs of this and that. You shouldn’t need to even mention ammunition, nevertheless, they are the bulk of the announced packages.
You can see the quality of “package” get weaker, the PR gets stronger, which reinforces Mercouris’ case that the overall support drops next year compared to this year.
That is tantamount to throwing Ukraine under the bus.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 31 2023 12:43 utc | 233

Posted by: canuck | Aug 31 2023 11:35 utc | 223

Your idea , in my humble opinion, is much too simple. […] I would suggest you study these hostorucal processes and I believe ypou would change your opinion.

Maybe, but this quote, suggests otherwise:
“Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?”
― Axel Oxenstierna

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 31 2023 12:46 utc | 234

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 30 2023 18:09 utc | 71
Hei igjen !
Du får gjerne ta en titt på videon ved 26:25
I den kan man se komponenten som förstörs som sikkert viser vart nånstans låg bomben og hvor stor den var.
Have a look at the still frame at 26:25
Based on the thickness of the ripped metal part, a good ballistic techie would determine where the device was placed. The soot left on it would indicate it’s composition too.

Posted by: Stephane | Aug 31 2023 13:06 utc | 235

Wall Street Journal saying that Ukraine broke through in the south. Anybody have any update on this? Can’t believe anything from the US press but they seem to be thinking they’re reporting something. Appreciate any better knowledge that the locals have here.

Posted by: DepewtyDawg | Aug 31 2023 13:14 utc | 236

Ukranazistan is now at the stage of the collapse when the original nazis lobbed V1s and V2s at London as “revenge” and began conscripting 60 year old men as Volkssturm.
The thing about the Sullivans and Blinkens is that they believe their own fantasies. Hollywood has trained them to be able to do nothing else.
As for the generals, you do not land a cushy post retirement job with Boeing or Raytheon if you go about telling inconvenient truths, so don’t expect facts there, either.
https://original.antiwar.com/martin_sieff/2023/08/30/by-now-jake-sullivan-expected-russia-to-be-destroyed/

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 31 2023 13:15 utc | 237

@DepewtyDawg 237
No they have not. They haven’t even captured Rabotino, it’s in the grey zone.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-83023-ukraine-smokescreens

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 31 2023 13:17 utc | 238

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 31 2023 12:24 utc | 231
Then believe those numbers and sources. Do whatever you wish. The post @209 stands. Lavrov’s Dog is happy with Medvedev’s Maths because it makes sense and matches known reality quite well.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Aug 31 2023 13:47 utc | 239

@Stephane | Aug 31 2023 13:06 utc | 236
Oh, you speak Swedish as well 😎
I did not miss that still frame yesterday, I saw it. But in my opinion it can have several interpretations. The statement “a good ballistic techie would determine where the device was placed” makes a presumption that a “device” was placed to cause the breakup. I don’t exclude such a possibility, but I don’t think these images are sufficient to conclude that way.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 31 2023 13:49 utc | 240

latest from Russian MOD:
Slavyangrad
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (31 August 2023)
▫️ In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces improved the situation along the front line.
▫️Over the past 24 hours, 5 counter-attacks by assault detachments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade, 32nd and 43rd mechanised brigades have been repelled near Sergeevka and Novoegorovka LPR.
▫️The enemy has lost up to 50 sevicemen, 2 motor vehicles, 1 Krab self-propelled howitzer, as well as 2 D-20 howitzers.
▫️ An ammunition depot of the AFU 66th Mechanised Brigade was wiped out close to Petrovskoye LPR.
▫️ In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces repelled 6 attacks by AFU assault detachments near Bogdanovka, Andreevka, Mayorsk, and Avdeevka DPR.
▫️In Donetsk direction, up to 365 servicemen, 3 Bradley IFVs, 2 AFVs, 32 motor vehicles, 1 Krab self-propelled artillery howitzer, as well as D-20 and D-30 howitzers, have been neutralised.
▫️ An ammunition depot of the AFU 54th Mechanised Brigade has been destroyed close to Veseloye DPR.
▫️In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Group of Forces repelled 5 attacks by the AFU 82nd Air Assault Brigade close to Verbovoye (Zaporozhye).
▫️Up to 85 servicemen, 2 motor vehicles, a M777 artillery howitzer, a Vampire MLRS combat vehicle, as well as 3 D-30 howitzers have been destroyed.
◽️ An ammunition depot of the AFU 47th Mechanised Brigade was destroyed close to Orekhov (Zaporozhye).
▫️In Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces repelled 2 attacks of assault detachments of the AFU 67th Mechanised Brigade close to Chervonaya Dibrova LPR.
▫️During the day, the enemy’s losses in this direction have amounted to 55 servicemen, 3 AFVs, as well as Msta-B and D-30 howitzers.
◽ In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces delivered strikes at AFU manpower and hardware clusters near Staromayorskoye and Urozhaynoye DPR.
◽ Up to 100 servicemen, 4 motor vehicles, 2 Msta-B howitzers, as well as a M119 howitzer have been neutralised during the day.
◽ 2 ammunition depots of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade have been destroyed close to Ugledar DPR.
◽ In Kherson direction, up to 20 servicemen, 2 motor vehicles, as well as 2 D-30 howitzers, have been neutralised.
◽ An ammunition depot of the 121th Territorial Defence Brigade has been wiped out close to Mikhailovka (Kherson).
◽ Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 128 areas during the day.
◽ 1 Ukrainian S-200 surface-to-air missile system has been neutralised near Slavyansk DPR.
▫️ A command post and a military field training camp of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade were eliminated close to Ugledar and Selidovo DPR.
◽ Air defence forces shot down 2 HIMARS MLRS shells, 2 JDAM guided bombs, and 2 HARM anti-radiation missiles during the day.
◽ 32 UAVs, including Tu-141 Strizh, were intercepted over the settlements of Kovalevka, Golikovo LPR, Soledar, Blagodatnoye DPR, Mirnoye, Novoukrainka, Tokmak (Zaporozhye), and Obryvka (Kherson).
@Slavyangrad

Posted by: ctiger | Aug 31 2023 13:56 utc | 241

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 31 2023 12:24 utc | 229
Fewer and fewer people in the West believe them and the Russian’s don’t give a damn, so this is just to keep the npc’s believing the fantasy and recycled for the Ukrainian home market. You can see their narrative grip loosening, evidenced by their instinctive reaching for the tried and tested COVID-19 narrative and sudden spate of white supremacists targeting the Democrats preferred minorities. This will only increase, as the Ukraine project becomes unsaveable, the Trump indictments backfire and the revelations about the Biden’s corruption continues.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 31 2023 14:01 utc | 242

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 30 2023 18:59 utc | 85
True, we just don’t know enough of who bombed Pskov, with which drones/weapons and what Russia’s response will be. We really aren’t that different from WWII citizens waiting to read about things days after the battle. Now with the internet and cell phones ,we get too much data but no big picture .
Maybe it was better in those WW II days as the fog of war had settled , and one knew if the battle was won or not for real – assuming the article was not propaganda of course.
We will know in time what happened in Pskov, but we will certainly know who wins the “ civilizational war” in time , and much more accurately to boot.

Posted by: Wondrous | Aug 31 2023 14:01 utc | 243

Russia will restore the Kakhovskaya Hydroelectric power plant (the dam destroyed by Ukraine few months ago), work is already underway on the design.
This was reported by the acting governor of the Kherson region Vladmir Saldo

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/61058

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 31 2023 14:07 utc | 244

Posted by: Milites | Aug 31 2023 14:15 utc | 245

https://media.defense.gov/2020/Nov/19/2002538223/780/780/0/200805-A-WA118-001.JPG
Repost:
Operation rainbow, was last official Nazi mission of ww2. Today, English-nazis have relaunched operation rainbow for ww3. F-16 were planned decades ago,
their strategy of exploiting ballistic response time;
the inability to understand ‘who’ launched, delays nuclear counterattack

Posted by: Merlin | Aug 31 2023 14:18 utc | 246

Posted by: tesla | Aug 31 2023 11:54 utc | 224

surprice attack from nato?
ridicolous! nato members ve other problems than attacking mother russia
they re happy with using retarded ukronazis

It’s immaterial whether NATO will attack or not.
What matters is whether it’s possible at all.
Basic contingency planning and risk management.
Something the Russians are past masters of.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 14:19 utc | 247

@Norwegian 245:
Excellent, means no further withdrawals are being contemplated.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 31 2023 14:19 utc | 248

Posted by: Merlin | Aug 31 2023 14:18 utc | 247

the inability to understand ‘who’ launched, delays nuclear counterattack

I don’t think so. As I understand m.a.d doctrine, any nuclear attack on the territory of the USSR will be assumed to originate from the USA.
I know that’s how it works from the USA perspective, in converse.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 31 2023 14:22 utc | 249

From the US perspective the requirements for nuclear strikes are much lower or unclear. For example, if you shoot one of their satellites they’ll nuke you according to the “rules”. During orange boy’s time, the plan was to replace regular bombs with small nuclear bombs, to make them the new normal for any occasion, not something special. An upgrade from DU ammo.

Posted by: rk | Aug 31 2023 14:39 utc | 250

In response to unimperator@227,
While I’m sure you’re correct, application of pressure on these cracks would ensure collapse, while relief of pressure creates opportunity for patchwork — there’s an obvious logic in calls for more aggressive action. That said, thinning of defenses by one’s opponent is an open invitation, and no doubt it is allowed to occur in areas of lesser strategic significance. In other words, although there are no doubt objective reasons for Ukraine thinning its defensive lines, that alone shouldn’t alter Russian plans — insert “That’s bait” meme image here.
Together with news of thinning Ukrainian lines, there’s the seemingly contradictory (or perhaps complementary) discussion around using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian force concentrations in Polohy region of Zaporozhie, introduced into the Russian info-sphere by Gurolev.

Posted by: Skiffer | Aug 31 2023 14:46 utc | 251

So.. apparently BAE Systems has offices in Ukraine already, and plan to begin production there??? Along with Rheinmetall, i don’t know who is dumber: Western weapons manufacturers for thinking they won’t get blown up, or Russia for letting them even talk about it while there is a war in Ukraine.
https://www.rt.com/business/582146-uk-weapon-production-ukraine/
It is hard to conceive they won’t be targeted and blown up, so wtf?
Maybe we are all suckers to think this war is about either side actually trying to win, while in fact it’s just a great money making venture for both, with all kinds of backroom deals, while we are just the suckers paying for it with our taxes and, for some, with their livelihoods, or actual lives.
WW2 comes to mind, when the US was fighting Germany, but US companies like Ford and GM got rich supplying Nazis with engines and trucks, and actually managed to sue their own Gov’t for bombing their factories in Germany:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/daily/nov98/nazicars30.htm

Posted by: Rubiconned | Aug 31 2023 14:53 utc | 252

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 31 2023 13:15 utc | 238
Most people probably don’t notice it, but Zelensky is following the exact same publicity and event script of the nazis. I don’t think it’s by accident.
There is a photo of Zelensky posing with his generals in the same way Hitler posed with his generals in Barbarossa.
Zelensky – “Wollt ihr den Totalen Krieg”, we have increased armament product production, we launch total mobilization.
Zelensky’s Bakhmut Stalingrad
Zelensky’s Wunderwaffe
Blatant propaganda from the battlefield a la Deutsche Wochenschau
Goebbels, A.K.A Podolyak, Danilov, Budanov, Arestovich etc.
Balkenkreuz in vehicles
Volksturm (first months of SMO, bet we will see that yet again)
Old men and children drafted
Paranoia, urge to get outside Kiev and the country whenever possible and stay outside as long as possible
I’m sure there’s a lot more, but Zelensky’s handlers are deliberately presenting the conscript of the events going with the nazis. The conclusion, most likely, will be the same. Will we see a failed assassination (Stauffenberg)?

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 31 2023 14:55 utc | 253

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 31 2023 14:55 utc | 255
Trouble is, the Nazis were in a far better position militarily than the Ukrainians are now, which just goes to show how bad the situation is for Kiev, and it’s getting progressively worse.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 31 2023 15:08 utc | 254

When I read the particular approach (I’d call it ‘zeal’) with which Big Serge tore apart the Leopard tanks, I thought this guy is working for an American arms (tank?) manufacturer. It’s also a bit (lot) painful to see how he glides right over Ukraine taking military orders from Washington/Pentagon.
I thought I read somewhere that there are lots of orders for Leopard tanks now, anyway? Reuters did report about this:
“DUESSELDORF, May 2 (Reuters) – German arms makers Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE) and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann have settled a legal dispute over the intellectual property rights to the Leopard 2, one of the world’s most advanced battle tanks, a court said on Tuesday.
A boom in defence orders due to the war in Ukraine, and in particular demand for Leopard tanks from Kyiv to help in the fight against Russian forces, has boosted both companies.”

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Aug 31 2023 15:11 utc | 255

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 31 2023 13:15 utc | 238
Ukranazistan is now at the stage of the collapse when the original nazis lobbed V1s and V2s at London as “revenge”
Isn’t Russia then already at that stage since it’s spent months raining bombs on cities far away from the front whenever Ukraine tried to attack a bridge or ship?

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Aug 31 2023 15:12 utc | 256

“…The girl in green had about the most lucid analysis of the war I’ve heard in a long time…”
-Posted by: B. Wildered | Aug 31 2023 10:12 utc | 213
—-
Indeed she did.

Posted by: knighthawk | Aug 31 2023 15:12 utc | 257

@unimperator | Aug 31 2023 14:55 utc | 255

Will we see a failed assassination (Stauffenberg)?

Not sure there is time for that, he seems to be heading for a successful one.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 31 2023 15:16 utc | 258

I thought I read somewhere that there are lots of orders for Leopard tanks now, anyway? Reuters did report about this:
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Aug 31 2023 15:11 utc | 257

You are correct of course, Rheinmetall is doing well, but the quality of product is irrelevant in this case. As the customers are EU vassalized states who are not allowed to buy anything else than Leopard or Abrams. Though it’s a good question why US in this case is not ramming the Abrams down their throats.
Earlier there was speculation that US will use the failed AFU offensive to drive Rheinmetall out of the tank market.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 31 2023 15:20 utc | 259

“waynorinorway | Aug 31 2023 9:40 utc | 206, I think you and SCCC missed the point of the alteration by the Doc.”
Posted by: Lantern Dude | Aug 31 2023 10:31 utc | 215
No, I caught the point but thought it was deceitful. They’ve had bad blood before and I thought it was done that way in bad faith, a matter of altercation as much as alteration. But OT…

Posted by: waynorinorway | Aug 31 2023 15:26 utc | 260

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Aug 31 2023 15:11 utc | 257
It doesn’t seem that Ukraine takes orders from anyone. The west has been very hands-off in supplying them whatever they want, including intel, and asking no questions. From the leaks earlier this year we saw that Ukraine was giving western intel the same propaganda numbers for causalities that they were giving the public.

Posted by: catdog | Aug 31 2023 15:29 utc | 261

Posted by: Milites | Aug 31 2023 15:08 utc | 256
Nazi’s were still producing loads of stuff in underground caves and cellars. They did everything themselves. Ukraine has produced very little by its own since 1991 except made small modifications to some weapons, they live entirely on handouts.
They most likely get some help from Nato to produce various things now, but they still don’t R&D or produce anything themselves. Even the assumed tank factory if it ever materializes, will be merely an assembly factory, meaning they produce non of the components, they just slap them together. And the tank factory is supposedly built in some cave in the Transcarpathian, which could mean it is a relatively small or low volume one, and it will probably be locatable through a volume of truck traffic going in and out in a rural area.
The Ukrainian “minister of strategic armaments industry” is just pure grand delure. They have nothing like that. The only thing they have the possibility to get is a foreign company building an assembly plant on the territory. Which are, as we know, stationary targets.

Isn’t Russia then already at that stage since it’s spent months raining bombs on cities far away from the front whenever Ukraine tried to attack a bridge or ship?
Posted by: Inkan1969 | Aug 31 2023 15:12 utc | 258

Russia doesn’t “rain bombs on cities”. The bombs mostly rain on the front and immediate rear areas. Drones hit stationary targets like ammo warehouses all over the map. Missiles are used when targets of opportunity are located.
Pretty much every time there’s a missile or drone strike, Mr. Goeb.. err, Podolyak says 25 / 26 were shot down and the one hit a nursery hospital.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 31 2023 15:32 utc | 262

https://t.me/ukraine_watch/7895

⚡️Evacuation of wounded Ukrainian militants from a speedboat hit by Russian air strikes in the Black Sea
Such unprecedented bravery in rescuing a “comrade” is explained by the last frame of the video – the face of the rescued man is not visible, but his hand seems to belong to a black foreign mercenary.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 31 2023 15:34 utc | 263

@spare_truth | Aug 31 2023 15:32 utc | 265
That algorithm failed. Try a reboot.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 31 2023 15:41 utc | 264

@Rubiconned | Aug 31 2023 14:53 utc | 254
Byecraptar too, new factory. Ukr could lie about all that for propaganda. But also very rarely a factory or anything related to industry or fuel or energy was hit. You can’t upset the abramoviches, right?

Posted by: rk | Aug 31 2023 15:43 utc | 265

262 unimperator. AbramsX the latest iteration, reuters quoted at 10$ million a unit. Not sure if and when they start production. but id gather nobody wants to pay upfront if it turns out like the f35 when some finally get delivered in a few decades

Posted by: hankster | Aug 31 2023 15:45 utc | 266

Bruised Northerner | Aug 31 2023 15:11 utc | 256
So you come here with Reuters “reports”? What did you expect them to say? No one wants Leopards after they all exploded nicely, most of them before reaching the first Russian tank and company’s stocks are going down? US tanks will be the only tanks allowed in nato in large numbers. And a few SK toy tanks Duda buys, about 1k of them.

Posted by: rk | Aug 31 2023 15:49 utc | 267

This week the US announced sending another $250 million in weapons to Ukraine.
Sweden announced $314 million in weapons to Ukraine last week.
Germany sent a package of aid this week.
Finland announced aid yesterday.
You might change your argument on this point to something along the line that Ukraine is not getting enough aid to matter “received nothing but promises” is false.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 31 2023 12:36 utc | 232
What is going on, apparently, is that lots of NATO countries have been keeping their military up to date by replacing the current equipment and putting the old stuff into storage. This has produced a large inventory of older equipment. When the claim is made that some country is sending military aid to Ukraine, what they are actually doing is putting a dollar value on their old military hardware inventory, and then announcing that like it is new spending. What is why they so easily and widely give aid to Ukraine. The budget cost in real spending is minimal because they are really “selling off” their old inventory of hardware. No doubt at 100% of alleged value.
The problem the above creates for Ukraine is twofold. First, the old inventory of stuff is running down in a lot of countries. As they haven’t been spending new money, it doesn’t show a willingness to continue the aid going forward, and I think it all but certain that a lot of NATO countries won’t be willing to do it. For the United States, 250 million dollars in aid is less than one fourth of one percent of what we have allocated to the cause. That is, not a 0.4% addition.
The other problem is that Ukraine gets not what they need, but what other countries happen to have in old inventory. That deprives their army of effectiveness when attacking the now well organized combined arms defense put up by the Russians. The net result: a lot of dead Ukrainians and a lot of wasted military hardware. The Russians are effectively burning through the inventory of older hardware that NATO would need to put into use should a major war break out against Russia.

Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 31 2023 16:19 utc | 268

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 31 2023 15:32 utc | 263
They also launched three major attacks at the end of the war, could still achieve local air domination over advancing Soviet forces, and could strike the Allies with major raids, intercept their strategic bombers and shipping. Ukraine are hovering on the point of being operationally ineffective, a level the Nazis reached only toward the very end.
Talking about YouTube commentators, I’m always cautious that some might be playing a similar role as the controlled opposition in the Soviet Union. Some of their recent pronouncements, few of which have been born out, have strayed very close to, if not over, FUDer territory. What’s clever is that any suspicion can be deflected by the criticism that they are exaggerating the conflict for monetisation purposes, what’s even cleverer is that they could play a double game by both raising unrealistic expectations and then lowering them by suggesting Ukrainian resistance is far more effective than in reality. The, ‘fangs out hair on fire’ supporters, looking at the inaccurate map and expecting an imminent breakthrough, grow frustrated at the lack of movement and start creating conspiracy theories, whilst others worry about Ukraine’s ability to constantly stop Russian ‘advances’. Reports, directly from the front, rarely now tally with the YouTuber’s perspectives and in retrospect give a far more accurate, albeit delayed, picture. Approach, I’d say, with caution.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 31 2023 16:37 utc | 269

Posted by: Jmaas | Aug 31 2023 16:19 utc | 269
Things that are too clever often end up being very stupid.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 31 2023 16:57 utc | 270

US tanks will be the only tanks allowed in nato in large numbers. And a few SK toy tanks Duda buys, about 1k of them.
Posted by: rk | Aug 31 2023 15:49 utc | 268
Poland is not following your expectation.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/poland-to-produce-over-800-south-korean-k2-tanks-as-part-of-order-for-polish-army/2835927
“Questions remain over the timeline of when the Abrams tanks can be delivered to Ukraine. The tanks are assembled in one place only — a government-owned, General Dynamics-operated plant in Lima, Ohio. That facility can produce 12 tanks per month, but the line is now full of new tank orders for Taiwan and Poland — orders it would be difficult and likely controversial to put on the backburner.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/26/us-sends-ukraine-advanced-abrams-tanks-00079648
Please check for new facts and provide an updated point of view concerning your topic. Thx

Posted by: 600w | Aug 31 2023 17:40 utc | 271

Posted by: DepewtyDawg | Aug 31 2023 13:14 utc | 237
No smoke without fire eh? If you are genuine, then you’ve unfortunately used a tried and tested FUDER technique. If Ukraine could not break through a defence screen in 80+ days then they are unlikely to breach the line it was screening in drastically less time.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 31 2023 14:15 utc | 246
___—____
No I woke up this morning and the wsj puts alerts on the top screen of my iPad and that’s all I saw. I couldn’t bring myself to read it. I rely on you guys here for my information. So it was a sincere question and thanks to those who answered. No head fake whatsoever though I understand the skepticism with all the trolls and so forth

Posted by: DepewtyDawg | Aug 31 2023 19:23 utc | 272

Also, what is FUDER, thanks

Posted by: DepewtyDawg | Aug 31 2023 19:25 utc | 273

” …intended to illustrate the fatuousness of SCCC’s reasoning in an attempt to undermine a Russian survey”.
Posted by: Lantern Dude | Aug 31 2023 10:31 utc | 215
###
No no no you complete imbecile. I was NOT trying to “undermine a Russian survey”. Jezzuz fkn Christ. What is the matter with some people’s reading skills? To reiterate: I was simply pointing out the transparent existential truth *to the original poster* that vox pops of a few cannot be extrapolated into some national generalisations about “Russians” (in toto) … or Americans, or any citizenry, and requesting that people qualify their wording more accurately. If you are unable to perceive that, Lantern Dude, then you are most probably one of the idiots I was speaking to.
Jeezuz Christ, people. Stop with the paranoia that anyone commenting against an MoA post is some troll. Oprisko does this ALL THE TIME — and not just at me. I receive his wrath because I call him out on it. I always post in good faith. I am no troll. But Oprisko is just a demented, defensive old bigot, just like RSH was/is.

Posted by: SCCC | Aug 31 2023 20:04 utc | 274

Svorsk 🙂 Efter ett par år som system utvikler på BBS.
Men jo, min svenska är bättre faktiskt. Synd att man får aldrig använda den, här i lilla byn.

Posted by: Stephane | Aug 31 2023 20:20 utc | 275

Posted by: DepewtyDawg | Aug 31 2023 19:25 utc | 274
FUDer = a spreader of Fear Uncertainty and Doubt, FUD, a basic psyop routine where a supposed supporter of a side disingenuously relays worrying information as though it were genuine in the hope of creating a rumour cascade. Often deployed when the side the FUDer is really supporting runs into trouble, I.e. having your 72 hour offensive turn into a 90 day slog.
Thanks for the polite reply, I’m careful at prefacing my comments with qualifying statements, because causing offence for offences sake or charging in, gun’s blazing, is a dick move and far too revealing about the poster replying. The Western media are very good at creating unwitting FUDers amongst the populations by misleading headlines or with no context, so a simple screening technique is either the 180 degree spin to counter the obvious projection (I.e. casualty rates) or ignore anything until confirmed by verifiable sources.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 31 2023 20:23 utc | 276

Ukraine is still trying to fight a conventional war where industrial production is king when it has already sold off most of its industry over the past 20 years. Stupid is as stupid does.

Posted by: let’s get bizzay | Sep 1 2023 2:36 utc | 277

SCCC | Aug 31 2023 20:04 utc | 275
I do not recall referring to you or your post as either being a Troll or trolling. I referred to it as fatuous. Your outburst leads me to suspect you and your motives.
You wrote I was simply pointing out the transparent existential truth *to the original poster* that vox pops of a few cannot be extrapolated into some national generalisations about “Russians” (in toto) The bold script (my emphasis) is why I considered you comment fatuous. You claim to have been teaching for 40 years – I don’t believe you – your style is unlikely to have been very productive. In fact, I’m with the doc SFB ;o)

Posted by: Lantern Dude | Sep 1 2023 14:34 utc | 278

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