Big Serge On The Summer Campaign In Ukraine
Big Serge has a long read about the state of the war in Ukraine which I recommend to read. It is a nice recap of the whole war and the ballyhooed counter-offensive:
Escaping Attrition: Ukraine Rolls the Dice
The Zaporizhia Summer Blockbuster
After concluding that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has evidently failed, he dares a look into the future:
So, whence goes the war from here? Well, the obvious question to ask is whether we believe Ukraine will ever have a more potent assault package than the one they started the summer with. The answer clearly seems to be no. It was like pulling teeth to scrape together these understrength brigades - the idea that, following on a defeat in the Battle of Zaporizhia, NATO will somehow put together a more powerful package seems like a stretch. More to the point, we have American officials saying fairly explicitly that this was the best mechanized package Ukraine was going to get.
It does not seem controversial to say that this was Ukraine’s best shot at some sort of genuine operational victory, which at this point seems to be slowly trickling away into modest but materially costly tactical advances. The ultimate implication of this is that Ukraine is unable to escape a war of industrial attrition, which is precisely the sort of war that it cannot win, due to all the asymmetries that we mentioned earlier.
In particular, however, Ukraine cannot win a positional-attritional war because of its own maximalist definition of “winning.” Since Kiev has insisted that it will not give up until it returns its 1991 borders, an inability to dislodge Russian forces poses a particularly nasty problem - Kiev will either need to admit defeat and acknowledge Russian control over the annexed areas, or it will continue to fight obstinately until it is a failed state with nothing left in the tank.
Trapped in a bat fight, with attempts to unlock the front with maneuver coming to naught, what Ukraine needs most is a much bigger bat. The alternative is a totalizing strategic disaster.
Pushed by the U.S. the Ukrainian leadership seems to have decided to go for the alternative.
Also a good read is:
The Case for Negotiating with Russia - The New Yorker
Not that Biden will go for it, but it is important that such pieces are now coming up.
Posted by b on August 30, 2023 at 11:56 UTC | Permalink
next page »A brief paragraph from Martin Armstrong newsletter which aligns with some of the barflies POV.
Prigozhin's coup appears to have been a propaganda stunt. He could not have really invaded Moscow and dragged Putin from the Kremlin. That is why it was over in a matter of hours. However, it succeeded in shaking up the high command, providing the excuse to eliminate a few people. But more importantly, it allowed Prigozhin's troops to seek refuge on the Polish border in Belarus. But Belarus was a close ally of Putin. He would never have protected them if Putin really said no.
The Wagner Group was strategically positioned against Poland, which had been massing an army of 40,000 American troops. Now that their leader has been assassinated, they are fleeing Belarus back to Russia. So, who benefited this time? Poland and NATO. Prigozhin has been walking around in Russia with no problem. This flight was from Moscow to St. Petersburg. He certainly would not have been hanging around Moscow if he feared Putin.
Posted by: madmarc | Aug 30 2023 12:04 utc | 2
Eh?
I doubt the Wagner troops are fleeing, and if so what stops them getting sent back or sent to the SMO-zone & replaced.
Belarus will be fine, Lukashenko can call-up a moderate number of reservists if need be. The US deployment is a joke in terms of combat troops & Poland's army has given half its kit away and lost quite a few "sheep-dipped" soldiers.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Aug 30 2023 12:35 utc | 3
Posted by: madmarc | Aug 30 2023 12:04 utc | 2
IIRC Russian media said today that it was not an accident.
Posted by: Bemildred | Aug 30 2023 12:41 utc | 5
I couldn't finish the New Yorker piece. It's hard to get past the Russia is the aggressor and The United States has a right to surround Russia with missiles bullshit. And at this point Russia has no reason to trust the west enough to negotiate with them. The whole idea of negotiations seems pointless.
Posted by: Steven | Aug 30 2023 12:47 utc | 6
@Steven | Aug 30 2023 12:47 utc | 6
" couldn't finish the New Yorker piece. It's hard to get past the Russia is the aggressor"
Ditto.
I raised my eyebrows at "Russian interference in US elections" but soldiered on.
@ "Russian aggression" the eyebrows re-populated my bald pate.
But b is correct in that at least mildly contrary views are gaining space in mainstream outlets.
Posted by: ChasMark | Aug 30 2023 12:59 utc | 7
The New Yorker piece by Samuel Charap was interesting to me not because he advocates negotiation, but because he recites as settled fact virtually every Western propaganda claim (the strategic defeat of Russia has already taken place; given enough time, and enough Western weapons and training, Ukraine could take back a fair amount, if not all, of its territory; there are horrible war crimes being committed under areas under Russian occupation; etc.).
Either most of us barflies inhabit a nonexistent imaginary universe or Charap and the even more aggressive Westerners who call him a Russian tool do. Of course, virtually none of us are in a position to know with certainty who is right, but the complete absence of any evidence in this long piece that Western exponents possesses any political empathy (i.e., recognizing the Russian position as a mirror image of the US handling of the Cuban missile crisis) suggests that it's those guys who are disconnected from reality.
If there isn't a significant turning point before this winter, I fear we're going to have to wait until at least next year to know whose view is closer to the truth of the situation.
Posted by: BillC | Aug 30 2023 13:02 utc | 8
I couldn't finish the New Yorker piece. It's hard to get past the Russia is the aggressor and The United States has a right to surround Russia with missiles bullshit. And at this point Russia has no reason to trust the west enough to negotiate with them. The whole idea of negotiations seems pointless.
Above Posted by: Steven | Aug 30 2023 12:47 utc | 6
I had the same problem with the piece but pressed on to its end and found nothing to appreciate because it in no way challenged the U.S. propaganda narrative (i.e., suggest that there might be legitimate reasons to question it) but only whether moderating it a bit toward the possibility of negotiations as a practical matter.
Posted by: StirThePot | Aug 30 2023 13:05 utc | 9
The best strategic move is to blast all bridges over the Dnieper river. These are solely for military use today. Spare none.
Until Russia can protect their planes they should be parked in air bases further east. They can land briefly in close by airports for refueling before bombing runs in Ukraine.
Posted by: Jason | Aug 30 2023 13:13 utc | 10
Pushed by the U.S. the Ukrainian leadership seems to have decided to go for the alternative [totalizing strategic disaster].
Not just pushed by the USA. There are strong economic incentives for the Ukrainian leadership to carry on for as long as possible despite no hope of winning the war. Their business is explosive: unstable, short-lived, yet very productive. It's also like looting, take as much as you can as quickly as possible 'cause the window of opportunity is so narrow.
In other words, there is no significant nationalism or fanaticism or ideology in Ukraine, even the Azovites are there for the money and all apparently meaningful gestures (erecting a statue to Bandera, banning the Russian language and culture) are intended to attract Western moneys by offering to provoke, de-reail, weaken and hurt Russia.
The USA and the Russian Federation have geopolitical and ideological reasons while Ukraine is so terminally corrupt that its leadership are just offering Ukraine's population for consumption in exchange for moneys to fund this consumption and from which they can extract nice margins for themselves.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 30 2023 13:14 utc | 11
Ugh the new Yorker article was hard to read rambling with awkward observances to throwing shade on russia.
I can read cnn because it's to the point. That writer was boring.
Anyways I don't think russia will negotiate, these new Yorker types want negotiations because they trapped themselves and now russia won't let go
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 30 2023 13:14 utc | 12
The New Yorker article, besides feeling the need to insert a Ukrainian propaganda into every paragraph, presents the "case for negotiation" in strawman form and presents it at arms length (ie always attributes the logic to a third party, never in the voice of the article itself), and spends more time arguing against negotiation than for it.
If anything, the takeaway is that the author would prefer a WWI style situation going indefinitely vs a ceasefire that would please neither party. And the author seems motivated in this preference, by the point of view of "sticking it to Putin" which seems to be important to him. Hardly a mention of the destruction of the coutry who's victimhood he exploits for justification.
Posted by: pxx | Aug 30 2023 13:18 utc | 13
@ Steven | Aug 30 2023 12:47 utc | 6
“ I couldn't finish the New Yorker piece.”
I did finish reading it, and you are right:
“It's hard to get past the Russia is the aggressor and The United States has a right to surround Russia with missiles bullshit. And at this point Russia has no reason to trust the west enough to negotiate with them.”
Spot on. In my opinion, the collective west doesn’t even have a position from which it can negotiate.
Posted by: DocHollywood | Aug 30 2023 13:19 utc | 14
Has the Ukrainian counter offensive failed? Or are they merely buying enough time to get more equipment and conscripts plus mercenaries from NATO, to go for another big push? The "Ukrainians" seem to be doing pinprick attacks inside Russia as a psychological offensive vs the Russian people (showing that they aren't safe from Ukrainian drones/bombs) while at the same time zerg rushing Russia on the frontlines and actually making headway.
Russia seems to be the one bleeding from a thousand little cuts.
Posted by: bored | Aug 30 2023 13:21 utc | 15
I keep hearing about this Samuel Charap piece in the New Yorker. I won’t read it , given many here have commented that he espouses too many NATO -ist propaganda points.
Given he is another “ Vindman “, and that I have read many such pieces before , and easily rebutted their propaganda, he cannot add value other that him proving the depths of Natoist malice and depravity to Russophile neophytes . He worked for RAND as well .
Posted by: Wondrous | Aug 30 2023 13:34 utc | 16
Most importantly, the article notes this war has become an industrial war of attrition.
Ukraine OBVIOUSLY could not win such a war against Russia even before most their strategically important factories and power stations were destroyed or captured.
Now, it is becoming clear even NATO cannot win this type of war against Russia with current military industrial output.
Posted by: Mar man | Aug 30 2023 13:36 utc | 17
"Kiev will either need to admit defeat and acknowledge Russian control over the annexed areas, or it will continue to fight obstinately until it is a failed state with nothing left in the tank."
So? That was the purpose of Ukraine - to throw itself at Russia and do as much damage as possible. When Ukraine is used up, the western elites will go to another plan. Maybe get Poland and the Baltics to be the next sacrificial agents, maybe try more color revolutions in the 'Stans, assassinate Putin and make deals with a critical mass of oligarchs, do something wild in Mongolia, or something I haven't thought of. The bottom line is that the oligarchs running the west (not Biden) are amoral and vicious but also cunning. They have vast resources and options at their disposal, no accountability, and none of the bad stuff will ever affect them personally. To them, losing Ukraine will be like losing a minor pawn, and the game continues.
Posted by: TG | Aug 30 2023 13:40 utc | 18
@15 bored
Re zerg rushing
Did you actually play starcraft? You know what a zerg rush looks like?
Lol, talk about a thousand cuts. There's no money to reanimate dead soldiers here.
Although the drone strikes will work until they don't, too bad it's not paired with a strategic victory for ukraine. No tactic goes unanswered. When they really need to do it, like stopping a nuclear attack russia will be ready to protect the airport properly.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 30 2023 13:40 utc | 19
What the newyorker piece forgot was the rise of nazguls in ukraine, minsk 1 and 2, and the 8 years of cannon fire on the civilian population of donets. Ukraine deserves nothing less than an antiseptic dissolution.
Posted by: James j | Aug 30 2023 13:47 utc | 20
Re: the recommended(?) New Yorker article. I noted that the author is Keith Gessen, brother of deranged Putin basher Masha Gessen. So I wasn't surprised to discover that Keith is just as deranged, and careless with the truth, as his looney sister.
Luckily, all of these pro-Ukraine lunatics have decided to find out, the hard way, that they're on the Wrong Side of History.
So thanks for the link, b :-)
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 30 2023 13:52 utc | 21
What I take from Samuel Charap: 'ha' sums him and his article up.
Posted by: Lantern Dude | Aug 30 2023 13:56 utc | 22
I doubt the Wagner troops are fleeing, and if so what stops them getting sent back or sent to the SMO-zone & replaced.
====================================
They were offered 3 choices.
One was to go sign a contract with the Russian MoD and go to the SMO zone.
They won't be sent to the SMO zone as long as they don't sign such a contract.
Which, incidentally, seems to be what a lot of them are now doing.
Their other options were to retire to civilian life, or go to Belarus (or Africa).
Actually Putin offered this when he talked to the Wagner commanders after their mutiny. Most of the commanders were inclined to sign on with the MoD. Prigozhin refused the offer, for all of them.
And now Prigozhin is gone. Which makes me wonder if he was killed by one of his own people who disagreed with that decision.
Posted by: Martina | Aug 30 2023 14:03 utc | 23
I'm not fussed by what the MSM might be saying at any time. I don't think anything they say or how they report the news should be used a yardstick or a gauge to mean anything.
Kiev will either need to admit defeat and acknowledge Russian control over the annexed areas, or it will continue to fight obstinately until it is a failed state with nothing left in the tank.
That's fine for what it is, but I am never keen on these kinds of simplified binary alternatives or choices such as above. Life, war, is never like that. It's far more complex, nuanced, and filled with surprises.
For a start this war/smo is bigger than just Kiev - what it wants and what it can and can't do is not the main issue. If it fights to the end, the army implodes, the govt fails, and Z escapes (be it in 2 months or next summer) - that still doesn't solve Russia's problems one bit. How does Russia stabilize the situation of Ukraine if the Govt collapses? Do they look to bring more Oblasts into Russia or not? Where will the borders be? What does Poland do?
Russia's much larger national security interests Putin and Lavrov laid out in December 2021 aren't resolved. Russia's border with Ukraine isn't validated or solved. Kalingrad is still insecure. The US hasn't moved a single missile battery out or pulled back any troop deployments to pre-1997 lines. There is still no security deal between Nato/US and Russia, and no Strategic Weapons Treaties. Europe's US nuclear missiles are still aimed at Russia.
The unhinged militarism of the Outlaw US Empire remains - and the stated desire of the Washington Liberal Hawks/Neoconservatives to drive Russia into the ground, to defeat it economically and militarily and broken up. Ukraine is merely a sideshow.
imo, almost anything could still happen from here. Of course I do not know what that might be.
But Ukraine simply withering and suddenly surrendering as the govt and army collapses, does not sound like the most likely outcome at this point. I can't see the 'crazies' in Ukraine, the US or NATO letting it come to that. Something else is coming before that will be entertained. They are going to double down somehow and not quit that easily. I believe it's going to get far worse before anyone bails out.
Posted by: Lavrov's Dog | Aug 30 2023 14:13 utc | 24
And now Prigozhin is gone. Which makes me wonder if he was killed by one of his own people who disagreed with that decision.
Posted by: Martina | Aug 30 2023 14:03 utc | 23
Yes, that is what I remember too. I would not presume to know what his commanders think about it, but I thought he overstepped his bounds there. That was not his role to play unless I misunderstood.
I think the West might have done it too. Plenty of motive.
Posted by: Bemildred | Aug 30 2023 14:13 utc | 25
"What would a Plan B look like? “It would be a diplomatic strategy,” he said. “It would be thinking about the choreography of how you engage.” It would be the “searching conversation” with Ukraine, and similar conversations with nato allies. It would be trying to get Putin to appoint a representative who has authority to negotiate, and appointing such a representative on the U.S. side, with Ukrainian support.“This is the kind of pre-negotiation interaction that will be necessary to lay the groundwork,” Charap said, “and then you actually devote resources inside the government to thinking through the practicalities and getting the right pieces in place.”
This is a perfect example of the kind of endless, inane waffle of the West (and by the way, this Gessen guy still insists with the Russia Russia Russia hoax). These are degenerate urbanites who needs 10000 words to explain to their just as degenerate readers that the Ukraine is in the foxhole, and the Russian terrier is coming. And even after the 10000 words it isn't really clear why Ukraine would seek peace, as "Russia is losing" (these people's position by default).
Remarkable is also the lack of the smallest hint of common sense: you can't have any peace with Russia without Russia agreeing with it, and Russia will not agree with the fantasies of these people.
I think it's going to be (obviously) the four oblasts, plus Nikolaev and Odessa, for Russia. But if the West keeps being stubborn, it's have to be all the territory east of the Dniepr, too.
After which, Mr Gessen will tell us that "Ukraine has won", because "the West is united".
Posted by: Alexander P | Aug 30 2023 14:17 utc | 26
The Charap piece is pathetic and shows that nothing at all has changed in the mindset of Ukraine's leaders. The danger to Russia is a total mobilization in which they must find a way to kill or neutralize 2 - 3 million male Ukrainians - and that's a tall order. We keep seeing estimates from previous wars about the dead and incapacitated as if they were relevant. Are they? Or can Ukraine go far beyond anything Nazi Germany suffered? Can the EU/US pay their bills indefinitely?
Is Russia weak in attacking or are they playing a long game and avoiding a huge pincer movement that could collapse the Ukr army - instead of killing off enough of them to end the nation demographically?
Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 30 2023 14:21 utc | 27
The problem is not only the new approach of "demining on foot" and the 1991 borders.
Putin started this operation under the slogans of denazification and demilitarisation, as the goal of joining NATO is spelled out in the Ukrainian constitution.
Therefore, it is absolutely not enough for Russia to freeze the conflict (which means a second round in N years) and get some land, it will be perceived by the society as a defeat. It needs guarantees that the remnants of Ukraine will not join NATO (will Poland want to take Lviv for itself?) and that the armed AFU will be limited - this is a question for the US
Posted by: Koba | Aug 30 2023 14:22 utc | 28
How do you like it, Ukrainian police in Dnepropetrovsk attached themselves to the family in the car and shot the father in front of his wife and children. The police killers have already been suspended and an investigation is underway. Most likely, the case will be hushed up, and there will be no perpetrators, as is usually the case in Ukraine.
Posted by: Crazy idiot | Aug 30 2023 14:26 utc | 29
"The danger to Russia is a total mobilization in which they must find a way to kill or neutralize 2 - 3 million male Ukrainians - and that's a tall order." (27)
I politely disagree. I wonder who will equip, arm and train these 2-3- millions, provided they are willing to go to the slaughter without rebellion. Where will the guns, the shells, the tanks able to give adequate protection to these troops come from? But really, even if they just send meat to the grinder, how can they equip all of them, care for the logistics etc?
I think this idea of the mega-army that comes out of the ashes of the already destroyed ones will never work. As Big Serge et al have pointed out, the biggest effort was made already. Nothing that comes now will have the same impact as the two-to-three armies already destroyed, together with a good part of the arsenal the West was willing to give to the Ukraine. I think the reality for the Ukraine is far more brutal, with no possibility of even the Big Last Suicide Wave.
The Ukraine is staring at the bottom of the barrel.
And the bottom of the barrel is full of excrement.
Posted by: Alexander P | Aug 30 2023 14:30 utc | 30
The Big Serge piece is most important in clearly pointing out that Rabotino is north of the first line of Russian defence and is capture does not mean a breakthrough of the first line.
The problem as always is that nothing will happen to win the conflict for Russia without a collapse of the nazi regime and without major Russian advances the regime can hold on for a long time to come.
Big Serge compares this conflict to WWI, which is hardly a unique comparison: even I was making it over a year ago. However, people forget that WWI was finally won after mobile warfare was restored in mid 1918. Had it not been, the Central Powers could probably have held out for years more.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 30 2023 14:35 utc | 31
The New Yorker piece highlights an assertion that the populations of Russian-controlled areas live under a reign of terror. This is a grossly false claim. There is no evidence that the people of Crimea or the Donbas are subject to widespread brutal oppression. The U.S. is propping up a corrupt and deeply cynical Ukrainian government that is killing its own nation, just as the Hitler regime did in the last days of WWII. Hitler's (disobeyed) final order was to destroy all of Germany. Will the U.S. tell Zelensky to do the same in Ukraine?
Posted by: HH | Aug 30 2023 14:47 utc | 32
I wasn't surprised to discover that Keith is just as deranged, and careless with the truth, as his looney sister.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 30 2023 13:52 utc | 21
Hey watch your pronouns Hoarsewhisperer! Masha is now non-binary and identifies as they/them.
You know what? This was not meant to be for your convenience. I also thought that there are some things that I can do—and I’ve always done this both as a queer person and now as a trans person—when I have a chance to insist on something, because I have prominence as a journalist and a writer, that’ll probably help some eighteen-year-old somewhere who has a lot of trouble insisting and being called they/them. I may care about it less than the eighteen-year-old, but I have more power to enforce it.
Source:
Masha Gessen interview with The New Yorker
Posted by: JuliaHin1984 | Aug 30 2023 14:48 utc | 33
The real determinant in this war are drone superiority, counter artillery superiority and artillery superiority. Infantry are more of a placeholder for holding fronts together, but without those three they can’t do much.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 30 2023 14:49 utc | 34
reply to 30, 31
Again, I question the assumptions derived from military history. Kidnap all male Ukrainians, let them shoot at targets for a day, force them at gunpoint to the gray zone. Small arms and ammo will always be available even if shells and armor isn't. They don't even need food or medicine, as they won't last for more than a couple days anyway. At 300 - 400K KIA per year, Russia faces 9 - 10 years until they are eliminated. They only need to stand in the way with guns in hand, nothing more. The EU/US can come up with maybe $5 billion per month to keep the Ukr. gov funded.
Going to slaughter without rebellion? Yes, they do. That is the present reality. There was a claim of orders to provide ammo to troops only at the line of contact to prevent suicides in the Ukr. army. I see no mass surrenders, no fragging, no public protest except over cemetary expansion. Where is any evidence of reason asserting itself in this? There is no shame or horror manifest to stop this.
I beg anyone to provide facts contrary to this extreme endgame. I truly want to be wrong but 700 - 1000 KIA per day can be done for a decade.
Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 30 2023 14:54 utc | 35
Consider the New Yorker piece full of propaganda but also concluding that the US will have to negotiate as a tacit admission of failure. An actually balanced and truthful background in that piece would make negotiations a no-brainer. But if you start from the propaganda premise the only conclusion is that the US failed miserably and negotiations are effectively surrender following defeat.
That's the big issue Biden and his troop of neocons created when they made the whole thing existential and clearly indicated that the goal is to effectively destroy Russia or at least see Putin overthrown. Much like Big Serge's analysis of the Ukrainian military-political position of returning everything within 1991 borders, the goal is too big and anything less is a failure. We can look at Russia's "go slow" approach to this conflict through this lens. In that context, just the survival of Russia and holding the territory in Ukraine that it currently holds becomes victory. Anything more is a crushing victory. And at this point, the US has to ask Russia to negotiate. That's a humiliation to the US foreign policy establishment and Biden personally right from the start.
Ukraine's maximalist goals are at least understandable. Biden setting down his maximalist goal from the beginning is a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the gut. Had the negotiations in 2022 been allowed to conclude, even a conclusion that was bad for Ukraine and bad for US plans to use Ukraine, Biden would have had the international position of accusing Russia of a war of aggression, maintaining sanctions, maintaining deep divisions between the EU and Russia, etc. etc. etc. It might not have been long term effective but it would have been far better than being defeated and humiliated, undercutting the threat of imperial power.
Posted by: Lex | Aug 30 2023 14:58 utc | 36
Sigh. I had hoped that the U.S. would send in F16's and Abrams tanks before Ukraine throws in the towel. This leaves room for Nikki Haley to screech that Ukraine only lost because the 'Biden admin, slow walked military aid and allowed evil to win'. Her actual words will be much more 'colorful' than that, having trouble channeling Haley this morning, it gives me a headache.
Seriously, the U.S. had to get this fight out of its system and holding back anything keeps the Neocons lights a burning bright. The Neocons have to see an undeniable failure.
Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Aug 30 2023 15:00 utc | 37
Posted by: HH | Aug 30 2023 14:47 utc | 32
That's been precisely the goal since day one by Empire of Lies....
Posted by: AI | Aug 30 2023 15:01 utc | 38
Well, too bad Putin isn't reading The New Yorker. The Russians will just carry on and wait a little longer for their enemies to go "kaput". Especially if the Baltic republics send their armies of 10 soldiers each over for some trouble.
Or the Poles may completely lose it once winter hits. Which isn't that unlikely considering the amount of white powder their "leaders" must be snorting right now. Just reading their press gives you the feeling the whole (Polish) population is just waiting to pick up guns and not stop until Moscow.
(Not so sure about Sweden and Finland but most likely their "dumb-cunts-in-charge"-parties are over now and people are sobering up that they pissed off their most important neighbour to the East.)
Posted by: RobRob | Aug 30 2023 15:01 utc | 39
thanks b.. i have read neither article yet, but unimperator was recommending the big serge article yesterday.. will check it out..
@ Lavrov's Dog | Aug 30 2023 14:13 utc | 24
i agree with some of your thinking, but i don't agree with some of it too.. its complicated.. there are a number of factors going on... time is a huge factor.. time is on russias side here given the international dynamics at play.. but it isn't going to happen as quickly as many would like, especially with regard to the failed state of ukraine.. it is going to fail, but it is going to be seen in stages.. nato - its going to fail too, but not as quickly as some would like... usa - it is failing and that is as clear as a bell.. so - again - time... time is a huge factor and it is on russia's side here.. i have no doubt about that..
Posted by: james | Aug 30 2023 15:02 utc | 40
@ Lex | Aug 30 2023 14:58 utc | 36
thanks lex.. right on..
Posted by: james | Aug 30 2023 15:04 utc | 41
There's a coup unfolding in French backyard Gabon. Funny how that seems to respond to the killing of the Wagner boss.
This following on the coup in Niger and the standoff between its new leaders and France over the ambassador.
I wonder what's the next coup to pop up in France African garden.
It's looking like France is facing an contagious virus.
Posted by: Stephane | Aug 30 2023 15:10 utc | 42
Some sharp commenter at ZH offered us his witty take on the coup in Gabon article today:
Oh dear... It seems that all but openly declaring war on Russia wasn't such a good idea after all.
This "gas station with a gun store attached" appears to have its sleeping assets and sympathizers all over the place. "You like your proxy wars, USA? You like your coups and regime changes? We'll give you proxy wars, coups and regime changes if you like them so much. We got plenty prepared here in this drawer. Here, have some. Plenty more where it came from."
Gosh, it is almost as if poking that hybernating bear in its cave wasn't such a good idea. Perhaps it would have been better to offer it some honey instead?
The west is run by drooling morons. Drooling morons. Yeah, give that RAND corporation a raise. A real brain-box they got there.
Posted by: Stephane | Aug 30 2023 15:12 utc | 43
On the Wagner boss take down, some french pilot named Aldo Sterone offered the most detailed and convincing explanation based on the video evidence we all got too see.
His sharp eye noticed a few things.
The detached wing resting flat on the ground had a very big bump mark, which could only have been made before the falling flat on earth. It was when the wing got freed and it went up pushed by the wind, and collided with the vertical fin of the tail, itself showing the matching damage. It's all there on the released video bits.
The inner bit of wing structure being ripped apart by what could only be a powerful blast. The black soot covering it. This shows and explosion occurred inside the wing joint box.
The absence of explosion traces on the wheel. The explosive device was not hidden in the wheel compartment, as it's a place sometimes checked by security. But it was not far, in the wing itself.
Remember the messages sent by the air hostess regarding what she found to be some unusual maintenance prior the fateful flight.
He also explains very simply the fanciful altitude variations being reported, with the aircraft spinning messing up the gauge pressure readers.
The story offered by Aldo Sterone on his YouTube channel is that of an explosive device planted in the wing during maintenance operations, as a stay behind mechanism, triggered by messaging on its SIM card when visual confirmation of human target onboarding the aircraft was done.
According to him the small size of the blast, the duration of the fall and the type of device activation is supposed to send a chilling message to the enemies of Ukraine still flying domestically.
Posted by: Stephane | Aug 30 2023 15:37 utc | 44
IMO, the op/ed by Chandran Nair in the National Interest, "The West Must Prepare for a Long Overdue Reckoning” that was the topic of the roundtable discussion on Zhang Weiwei's This is China I compiled into "Zhang Weiwei & Chinese Language Media Part Two" is far more damning and based on reality than anything recently published by US media. Here you have someone considered sympathetic to the USA trying to talk sense to the Donors running it by laying out previously unmentionable truths, which is the primary reason Zhang complements the author and deconstructs the essay. Although not as potent as someone from the Swamp standing up and telling the truth, it might perhaps represent a beginning.
There will be no negotiations until the West realizes that the starting point is replacement of the entire Kiev leadership and the creation of whatever Russia thinks is an acceptable State, probably one with no territory on the Black Sea or other strategic points...
Posted by: pyrrhus | Aug 30 2023 15:41 utc | 46
"Drooling morons" is about right..But this disaster was started by the same level of people who started WW1, a mega disaster which bankrupted Britain and France (and the US) and made the end of Britain's empire inevitable...
Posted by: pyrrhus | Aug 30 2023 15:44 utc | 47
Posted by: madmarc | Aug 30 2023 12:04 utc | 2
If true and those 20k Wagners have left for Russia ,then we have some news. They were meant to be the stalwarts of any defence or vanguard of Belorussia and Russia respectively.
I haven’t heard about new Wagners or any Russian influence in Sudan,Gabon or Niger , and especially in the latter two since Prighozin supposedly rebelled.
Initially thinking they were pro-Russian and likely Russian-fostered, I now tend to believe that all three of the coups were in fact by USNATOIsts . The former to stop the proposed Russian base and the latter two then would simply be the US cannibalising its French ally ,just as it did with its German one; by bombing its Nordstream gaslines .
I really hope Russia knows what it is doing militarily , as I believe those Wagners were some of its most seasoned fighters ,and who knows if they fight just as well under new “parquet generals “ from the MOD…
Posted by: Wondrous | Aug 30 2023 15:49 utc | 48
@ Hoarsewhisperer 21
Re: the ... New Yorker article ... the author is Keith Gessen, brother of deranged Putin basher Masha Gessen. So I wasn't surprised to discover that Keith is just as deranged, and careless with the truth, as his looney sister."
Wikipedia informs us Masha Gessen is Jewish, Russian by birth, and is "Described as "Russia's leading LGBT rights activist". You can't make this stuff up. Wikipedia entry for Masha Gessen
This is one of the rare times when b offered an article that was simply not worth reading. All I got from it is that the New Yorker types are batsh*t crazy, which I already knew. Also, Wikipedia's long list of US "news outlets" that publish her poison serves to show how fully the US establishment has bought into this narrative. So if you haven't already turned off those poison outlets, might as well turn them off now.
Posted by: JessDTruth | Aug 30 2023 15:50 utc | 49
TG | Aug 30 2023 13:40 utc | 18
***They have vast resources and options at their disposal, no accountability, and none of the bad stuff will ever affect them personally. To them, losing Ukraine will be like losing a minor pawn, and the game continues.***
Just why -- despite the immense damage they've deliberately inflicted worldwide for decades -- are the Soros family and their fronters still alive? Likewise the likes of Schwab.
Posted by: Cynic | Aug 30 2023 15:55 utc | 50
Russia seems to be the one bleeding from a thousand little cuts.
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
Maerica doesn't seem to be, it is on the precipice of an imminent financial correction that will provoke domestic unrest.
Ukraine has blown its wad and now wants more money and more people to throw at a problem they cannot solve.
The West lacks even the conceptual tools required to 'win'. The entire premise is faulty. They can ignite ww3, certainly, but they can never realize their aims. It's idiocy, bloody and murderous idiocy.
The sooner these spoiled brat Western leaders - who posture as strategists, politicians, 'advisors' and journalists - who have never found an obstacle they couldn't undermine through nefarious means get through their thick skulls they cannot have what they want, the sooner they can pivot to mitigating the enormous damage they have inflicted on the West. Or more precisely, to covering it up (as much as you can cover up a train wreck) so they don't end up as the face of this debacle. That is, as the war criminals they well know themselves to be.
The sunk cost fallacy, since the 'strategists' have burned through so much blood and treasure, is sleepwalking us to the apocalypse.
In the real world, the dogs bark, the bear keeps walking.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 30 2023 15:59 utc | 51
Zakharova's Weekly Breifing has returned and has the usual long report about Ukraine. Here are a few extracts:
Tonight, the Kyiv regime used drones to attack several targets in a number of Russian regions. In Pskov, a civil-military airfield was attacked, an administrative building was damaged in Bryansk, and an unmanned aerial vehicle fell into an empty tank for storing petroleum products in the Dzerzhinsky district of the Kaluga region. Ukrainian drones were shot down in the Moscow, Oryol, Ryazan and Tula regions. According to preliminary data, there were no casualties as a result of these attacks. The raids of Ukrainian UAVs on civilian civilian targets once again confirm the terrorist nature of the Kyiv regime. It is also clear that Ukrainian drones could not fly such a distance without a carefully designed route, taking into account information from Western satellites.The Kyiv regime, actively supported and encouraged (although the word "soul" is inappropriate here) by the countries of the "collective West", continues to barbarously shell civilian objects and residential areas in Russian regions on a daily basis, including using cluster munitions that pose a particular danger to the civilian population. Let me remind you that these are US supplies....
The actions of the Ukrainian regime will not go unpunished. Russian law enforcement agencies investigate and carefully document all the facts of shelling of Russian regions by Ukrainian militants, as well as their other criminal activities. Those responsible are brought to justice. I would like to remind those Kiev-regime militants who are currently shelling peaceful neighbourhoods of Donetsk and other Russian cities and villages and sincerely believe that they will not know about the crimes they have committed, will forget or will not be investigated due to their mass nature – they are mistaken.
Recently, Russian courts, on the basis of evidence collected by the Investigative Committee of Russia, sentenced a number of Ukrainian militants. The commander of the Ukrainian unit, D. Khrapach, who was convicted in absentia, received a life sentence for ordering the shelling of the residential sector of Donetsk at the end of December 2022. Ukrainian Nazi A. Novik, who fired a grenade launcher at a residential building in Severodonetsk in May 15, was sentenced to 2022 years in a strict regime colony. 20 years in a strict regime colony were assigned to S. Boychuk, a militant of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who fired at a residential building in the Popasna district in June 1 from a smoothbore gun installed on the BMP-2022, As a result, an elderly civilian died.
Ukrainian militants R. Petrenko and A. Khrolenko were sentenced to 25 years in prison in a strict regime colony, who in March 2022, following the criminal orders of their command, shot a car with civilians in Mariupol, killing four civilians. Nationalist Y. Kulinich was sentenced to 17 years in prison in a strict regime colony for throwing a grenade at an elderly woman in the village of Rubizhne in the LPR for her words about Ukraine, which the criminal did not like. She died on the spot. And he will live.
Work to identify and punish Ukrainian criminals fighting civilians will continue. It makes no difference whether they commit their crimes arbitrarily or on the orders of the Kiev regime. Justice will catch up with them....
According to media reports, the largest cemeteries in Ukraine are currently being actively expanded. Apparently, the Ukrainian authorities, urged by their Western masters, intend not only to continue to plunder the once prosperous country "to the last thread", but also to deprive it of the most valuable thing - the people living there. In this context, it should also be noted that information appeared in the media that the Kyiv regime and the West plan to continue the "counteroffensive" next year. Westerners, cynically demanding decisive action from Kiev, are determined to wage an inhuman confrontation to the "last Ukrainian". Now it is not a figure of speech, but a reality. They "scrape out" the last citizens of this country. I understand that the inadequacy of people on Bankova Street does not allow them to answer questions or ask us. But still. Was that the original plan? By putting Western fosterlings in leadership positions in Ukraine, destroy the state and the people as a nation, community, culture? It turns out that it is.
The actions of the neo-Nazi Kiev regime led to the total looting of Ukraine, which continues to this day, no matter what. In many ways, the moment of the tragic collapse and destruction of Ukraine is used for even greater theft. In order to create the appearance of fighting corruption and reduce the degree of discontent in society in connection with the mediocre policy of the authorities, Vladimir Zelensky, according to the Ukrainian media, plans to submit to the Verkhovna Rada a bill equating corruption in wartime with high treason. A wonderful endeavor. Then the Kyiv regime will have to resign at once with the whole composition.
The need to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine is obvious to all sane people, including Ukrainians themselves, who are victims of cynical Western deception. I am sure that many, for various reasons, sincerely believed the West, which took advantage of naivety, stupidity, greed, doubts, uncertainty. And as always, he deceived everyone. But this deception is fatal for Ukraine.
The transcript is unfinished, although the video is ready to be played. Obviously, Russia's serious about arresting and prosecuting those who conduct what it considers terrorist attacks with the door wide open for arresting those in the West who abetted those crimes, beginning with Biden on down the ladder.
The New Yorker article is garbage and is just inverted propaganda full of silly lies ("Russia has already lost" *eye roll*).
Don't know why you woud champion this blatant attempt at deception...
Posted by: Skeletor | Aug 30 2023 16:38 utc | 53
@Stephane | Aug 30 2023 15:37 utc | 44
The absence of explosion traces on the wheel. The explosive device was not hidden in the wheel compartment, as it's a place sometimes checked by security. But it was not far, in the wing itself....
According to him the small size of the blast, the duration of the fall and the type of device activation is supposed to send a chilling message to the enemies of Ukraine still flying domestically.Why this talk of a "blast" and "explosive device" if there is no evidence for it? If there is such evidence, where can I see it?
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 30 2023 16:46 utc | 54
Russian gay slow war gives all chances to the West to escalate 🤣🤣 stupid Putin
Posted by: Antony little | Aug 30 2023 16:48 utc | 55
[email protected] it's bomb them into resignation? A bit nieve, yes? The Russian government will resign before then. Or am I mistaken believing that Russia, out side if tacticals, can make the USUK governments resign, surrender, give up, fade away .....breath holding not suggested.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 30 2023 16:56 utc | 56
B recommends a piece in the New Yorker as "good." The article is by Keith Gessen and is titled "The Case for Negotiationg with Russia."
Why is this russophobic rant recommended here? It contains the same, tired nauseating russophobic cliches, whether repeated by Gessen or by some guy called Charap, who is promoted as a voice or reason, whereas all he does is says a few platitudes that nobody needs any more.
But what else would you expect from the New Yorker? The same amerikkan russophobic rag as all the rest of them.
Posted by: Konrad | Aug 30 2023 16:57 utc | 57
There are reports that AFU has formed a battalion out of (jobless) fighter pilots used in Artemovsk direction. This is akin to the Luftwaffe Feld divisions.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 30 2023 16:58 utc | 58
The New Yorker piece is one more in a litany of MSM imperialist apologies.
Their demands—not only that Ukraine promise to never join nato but also that nato pull its troops back to their 1997 locations—were simply unrealistic. “They’re asking the world’s most powerful military alliance to strip naked and run laps,” he said.
Where does one begin? Talk about turning things upside down! First, the "most powerful military alliance" isn't so powerful and the "alliance" seems to not be very cohesive, either. Second, the alliance has never been about defense and if one calls a spade a spade, then in practice it has always been involved in offensive aggressions: Libya, Syria, Yugoslavia, Iraq, etc. Russia should just accept being surrounded by ex-Warsaw pact nations being armed with NATO munitions, many capable of carrying nukes? I don't know what b finds so "great" about this so-called "analysis." Perhaps it's just me, but I can't bring myself to read the whole article when there's so much cognitive dissonance involved with the so-called "history" between the west and the Soviets/Russia. A more balanced "analysis" would recognize the ferocity and scope of the international class struggle, then and now. Russia will never be forgiven for giving birth to the Soviets, where for the first time in history the masses had seized and held state power - the historic nightmare of the ruling class. Ever since this birth, the world bourgeoisie has been obsessed by a drive to destroy it. Putin is no Stalin but the legacy of the Soviets is what every bourgeoise cannot bear to swallow. Hence, the continued support of nazis and aggression against any sovereign state with socialist legacies/
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 30 2023 17:15 utc | 59
According to RT Scholz wants "immediately effective" weapons for Kiev. Can you smell the fear?
Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 30 2023 17:15 utc | 60
Russians make an appeal to all Ukrainians dragged into the counteroffensive:
You still have a way out.
Posted by: Tiano | Aug 30 2023 17:15 utc | 61
The New Yorker piece highlights an assertion that the populations of Russian-controlled areas live under a reign of terror.
Posted by: HH | Aug 30 2023 14:47 utc | 32
I think the claim is not wrong. But we all know that it is not the russians who are responsible.
Just the daily donezk ucrainian artillerie roulette since 2014 and ...
And this is supported by the USA.
Posted by: 600w | Aug 30 2023 17:20 utc | 62
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 30 2023 16:46 utc | 54
Here is Aldo Sterone video https://youtu.be/0E-e2fvDzB4?si=AosuD8O3JZc8biFU
You can see in there the still frames showing the evidence he used for his interpretation of events.
He says it is his explanation of what likely happened. He is not absolutely sure of course.
Hope this answers your request.
Posted by: Stephane | Aug 30 2023 17:20 utc | 63
If there ever were negotiations all the support staff on the American side, the underlings who flesh out the details and put it into language, they would all be New Yorker subscribers.
So aside from the US no longer having any diplomats worth the name we have no more possibility of a negotiating team . The only possibility for Russia is unconditional surrender. Or a conflict that drags on and on on new and different battlefields. This one goes beyond Ukraine.
Posted by: oldhipie | Aug 30 2023 17:21 utc | 64
i got as far as the sentence about russian interference in the 2016 election and knew it was all total bs.
Posted by: ontoiran | Aug 30 2023 17:24 utc | 65
Endless circular speculation about who, how, where, when and what, regarding Prigozhin’s death, but then this piece of news is reported.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66649570
Does the low key funeral and few official representatives strengthen or weaken the favourite narratives about his demise? Traditionally, leaders who kill people off and want to appear innocent have lavish ceremonies, for their victims, whilst publicly showing their grief and making assurances the perpetrators will be hunted down. Here, blink and you’d miss it.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Aug 30 2023 14:35 utc | 31
Agree, I made a reference to the Amiens campaign being the mortal wound to the German war effort, exhibiting a growing mastery of combined arms warfare that could not be equalled or effectively combatted due to the industrial resources consumed and forces committed. I’m wondering if an armoured assault, that goes against the dispersed, micro scale of combat would so shock and destabilise an opponent, used to the avoidance of mass, that it would avoid the problems of concentration. Put simply, if Ukraine is weakened enough could the armoured gauntlet, used to poke and prod, be once more balled into a fist?
Posted by: Milites | Aug 30 2023 17:31 utc | 66
Patrick Lancaster: What Russians really think of the U.S. and Ukraine war
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2M69_Xksy9E
Posted by: Tiano | Aug 30 2023 17:32 utc | 67
yup good article thanks to original poster.
meanwhile slavyangrad posted item...cemetaries ate being expanded invluding a new military cemetary.. these could hold 1.5 million bodies. Small cemetaries in villages are not assessed. Presumably parts of bodies ...those assassinated by soldiers leaders ...missing persons etc would not be included in mortality figures???
In Zkiev a small protest of women asking for their menfolk to return "home".
Posted by: Jo | Aug 30 2023 17:41 utc | 68
As for the Chinese first aid kits it can simply be that the army was charged for high end kits and only low end kits instead and that middlemen, Ukrainian and foreign pocketed the difference. The Italian blogger Nicolai Lilin (from Transnistrian origin) reports such cases on his telegram. One field kitchen received a load of canned tuna from the ministry's caterers and when they open it they see that it is just low end sardines. Corruption is rife from top to bottom.
Posted by: Teraspol | Aug 30 2023 17:54 utc | 69
karlof1 | Aug 30 2023 16:11 utc | 52
"so far as I know Ukraine's drones don't work via satellite link." does anyone have any proof otherwise?? thanks..
Posted by: james | Aug 30 2023 18:07 utc | 70
@Stephane | Aug 30 2023 17:20 utc | 63
Thank you for the link to the video. It is hard to follow because I do not speak French and the auto-translation to English is severely botched. I saw the images, but they do not show evidence of explosives as far as I can tell. From what I could understand, it seemed to me he speculated in a lot of details that were not supported by evidence. I do not know who this person is. The theorized mode of the wing being ripped off and colliding with the tail, is just a hypothesis and even if we assume it to be correct, it does not say how the wing was detached in the first place.
The images were new to me, so if they in fact are showing parts of Prigozhin's plane it is new information. The wing seemed largely intact (I am no airplane expert), so one central question is: What caused the wing to detach from the fuselage? Perhaps there are more central questions.
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 30 2023 18:09 utc | 71
"Eh?
I doubt the Wagner troops are fleeing, and if so what stops them getting sent back or sent to the SMO-zone & replaced."
Urban Fox,
Looks more like they are going to their pre-combat deployment points by Sumy-Kharkov masking the move as the poor sheep lost their shepherd and are giving up. The militant morons of the West will actually believe this since it fulfills the Narrative.
Thomas
Posted by: Thomas | Aug 30 2023 18:12 utc | 72
@55 antony little
Re: time for the west to escalate means Putin is stupid.
So, you cant imagine any other reason why Russia might want to lure in the the US and its vassals into escalating?
Such a lack of imagination.
Maybe you should ask why the bridges of the dnieper aren't attacked?
Why hasn't russia deployed its advanced units and bulk of its soldiers?
Putin is so stupid, but your so smart to see the error?
Who wants to know the answer?
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 30 2023 18:30 utc | 73
The war seems to be going in a circle: what began as a fake 'color' uprising in the Maidan is likely to end in a real popular explosion in which the Kiev fascists are swallowed up and spat out.
The idea that Ukraine can, or will, continue to watch apathetically as thousands of men are killed, to amuse the imperial ruling class, every week is unconvincing: all that keeps the regime together is terror under the beedy eyes of the NATO sponsors.
It is unsustainable- if NATO doesn't pull the plug and sue for peace at any price, which will probably mean sacrificing Ukrainian land for property rights and other financial considerations, the people will take over. And that, it has been clear from 2014, is something the Russian oligarchy wants only slightly less than Uncle Scoundrel and his pack of hyenas.
Posted by: bevin | Aug 30 2023 18:31 utc | 74
How many of you know that the great hero of England is a cheap club defaulter? This info is available online. Churchill and Bangalore club. We are supposed to respect such people? The new version is aplty Zelensky!
Posted by: Fist of India | Aug 30 2023 18:36 utc | 75
There's been a lot of hand wringing here about what constitutes Russian victory.
How does Russia defeat the US and its vassals so they know they lost? How can he hurt them so bad, without a nuclear holocaust?
How does he create a security architecture that won't be ignored at the first opportunity?
How does he neutralize ukraine without dealing with people who hate Russia with a deadly passion, or going broke trying to make Ukrainians prosper without them trying to steal everything?
How, how, how...
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 30 2023 18:37 utc | 76
Ukraine's drones don't work via satellite linkPosted by: james | Aug 30 2023 18:07 utc | 70
Satellite link from fast moving objects requires quite sophisticated beam steering. Space-X's phased array antenna would be obvious in any captured downed drones. Anything else would be too heavy to fly.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 30 2023 18:45 utc | 77
NeoF@76
When people understand that they hate war more than Russians it will finish.
Posted by: the pessimist | Aug 30 2023 18:47 utc | 78
Re:
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 30 2023 17:15 utc | 59
" " "
Perhaps it's just me, but I can't bring myself to read the whole article when there's so much cognitive dissonance involved with the so-called "history" between the west and the Soviets/Russia. " " "
No, it's not "just you".
I felt exactly the same, and identical to many others here. My thought was, that this Charap is not wery much able to connect in russian and with true russians. On a sarcastic note, I had a thought that he did not drink. Of course, I think the old fashioned way, the "in vino veritas".
He is false, Charap and the author, both.
Posted by: LogosApplied | Aug 30 2023 18:48 utc | 79
AAhh Big Serge !
he blocked me on my very first post on his twitter account - it was just a nobody's comment not even insulting or something like that - and to be quite honest I do not understand why he did that.
So I respect his will: I don't take a look at what he state or what he write.
Posted by: w | Aug 30 2023 18:51 utc | 80
The best strategic move is to blast all bridges over the Dnieper river. These are solely for military use today. Spare none.
Until Russia can protect their planes they should be parked in air bases further east. They can land briefly in close by airports for refueling before bombing runs in Ukraine.
Posted by: Jason | Aug 30 2023 13:13 utc | 10
Which in turn begs the question of why Russia has not done so.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Aug 30 2023 18:52 utc | 81
Yesterday, Tucker Carlson interviewed Hungary prime minister Viktor Orbán - to talk about the situation in Ukraine
https://twitter.com/i/status/1696643892253466712
(8/29/23) ~ 30 mins
Posted by: Toby C | Aug 30 2023 18:52 utc | 82
Ukraine reminds me of a guy, probably drugged and/or mentally ill, who’s determined (consciously or subconsciously) to commit “suicide by cop”. He’s holding a knife, surrounded by half a dozen gun-toting policemen ordering him to drop the knife. Anyone not crazy would drop the knife, but he lunges forward and seals his fate.
The US is off on the side offering to toss him another knife.
Posted by: Sentient | Aug 30 2023 18:57 utc | 83
Big Serge's report is great. So are some of the comments. ;-) Nothing further to add here.
BTW, I am very jealous of madmarc's moniker, but he/she/xe is not me.
Seriously though, the substack platform is technically superior to this one and allows a thread of debate/conversation to develop. B - maybe you should consider a change and upgrade?
Posted by: marcjf | Aug 30 2023 18:58 utc | 84
I keep hearing about this Samuel Charap piece in the New Yorker. I won’t read it , given many here have commented that he espouses too many NATO -ist propaganda points.
Given he is another “ Vindman “, and that I have read many such pieces before , and easily rebutted their propaganda, he cannot add value other that him proving the depths of Natoist malice and depravity to Russophile neophytes . He worked for RAND as well .
Posted by: Wondrous | Aug 30 2023 13:34 utc | 16
For some reason, lots of attention has been bestowed upon the Charap essay in the New Yorker...
Apparently....
Most forget that Russia has a say in how all this ends....
And....
Medvedev succinctly stated "They will get on their knees and beg"
Lots of photos of him and Shiogu touring defense plants....
As for the attack on Psgov's air base....
What if the Russians claim the Estonians did it?? Declare a state of war exists with Estonia??
Demand unconditional surrender within 24 hours or else??
Did anyone in NATO consider this????
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Aug 30 2023 18:59 utc | 85
@pessimist
Optimistic guess, but there's a lot of precedent saying that people can be made to fight long after its clear its counterproductive
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 30 2023 19:03 utc | 86
What the Ukrainians and their NATO advocates and suppliers planned in 2022 was an Operation Storm effort in Donbass, and why not their efforts had worked perfectly in 1995!
The formula was there for all to see, use a cadre of fascist fanatics, in that case the Croatian Ustasha movement reinvigorated, supply the movement and the regular Croatian Army (Croatian elements of the Yugoslavia JA) with plenty of NATO weapons and ISR, plus assign NATO officers as "liaisons" and go for it. Dont worry about the possibility of ethnic cleansing, in the greater geo-political scheme of the Clinton deep state DOS (including one Victoria Nuland), that did not matter in the least.
The end result was an overwhelming NATO victory, the armed forces of the Krajinian Serb Republic were defeated in a surprise attack. Greater Serbia was cut off the Adriatic, when Split was conquered, and the ethnic cleaning of the region with thousands of civilian and military Serb Orthodox casualties was accomplished. Presto, a thorn in NATO's Balkan ambitions had been eliminated.
Now lets fast forward to January and February 2022. Ukrainian fascist forces including the dreaded Avoz neo Nazi formations were staged in great numbers on the edges of the Donbass. These forces had been supplied with advanced weaponry by NATO and the US, NATO advisors were embedded with the Ukrainian fascist forces, NATO ISR was on hand. The great ethnic cleansing of Russians from the Donbass was about to commence just like in the Krajina with the Serbs.
The difference this time was a great Russian counterstroke that fell upon the Ukrainian fascist forces prior to their project jump off date.
Putin knew full well what happened in Iraq, in Syria, in Kosovo and in the Krajina, and struck the first blow. NATO's run of the card game ended, never to be repeated.........
One thing is for sure, Russia will never under any circumstances allow the Donbass and the Crimea to be under surrogate NATO control or set up a rogue NATO proxy state like Kosovo in their midst......he will use all available means to make sure that does not happen........
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Aug 30 2023 19:10 utc | 87
As reported by certain well-informed channels ,NATO strategists are planning to expand attacks on Russia, where they would use the territory of Poland, the Baltic states, Finland and even Japan for such a thing. The organization of these attacks was entrusted to the British MI6, SBU and GUR. Naval combat forces and ports of the Northern, Pacific and Baltic fleets, as well as logistics hubs and industrial facilities deep in Russian territory, would be targeted.
https://twitter.com/Sprinter99800/status/1696964466682851717
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 30 2023 19:15 utc | 88
@ too scents | Aug 30 2023 18:45 utc | 77
thanks for that.. do you know if any Space-X's phased array antenna have been actually captured??
Posted by: james | Aug 30 2023 19:17 utc | 89
Posted by: Stephane | Aug 30 2023 17:20 utc | 63
I enjoyed the Aldo Sterone explanation of what happened to the Prigozhin plane. Quite plausible (bomb in the wheel-well, inserted during the week's maintenance before the Prigozhin flight, triggered by a signal from a mobile). Evidently an aviation nerd of mother's basement type (video made in the car as wife/mother won't have him make it in the house)
Posted by: laguerre | Aug 30 2023 19:20 utc | 90
im confused--I thought the author is some guy (from Rand) named Charap, not Gessen.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 30 2023 19:28 utc | 91
Russia seems to be the one bleeding from a thousand little cuts.
Posted by: bored | Aug 30 2023 13:21 utc | 15
-----------------------------------------------------
Sorry guy, time to put your eyeballs and brain cells to work.
Big Serge very carefully and methodically went through his analysis. It seems you did not get it. I read it twice yesterday and once again today.
Ukraine is done scraping up additional weapons that would enable maneuver warfare. That means no breakthroughs anywhere. That means they are done.
Once you get that understanding, what is left? Attrition. The Russkies are holding up fine, as the bigger guy with the bigger bat.
The New Yorker piece is useless and I will not read it. MSM has to abandon the notion of the evil, aggressive Russian monster. I don't see any steps anywhere leading in that direction. The current noise is that more money and more weapons will not do for now.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 30 2023 19:29 utc | 92
zeke2u | Aug 30 2023 17:15 utc | 59
So you think the hatred for Russia is because of the legacy of the Soviet Union?
"Russia will never be forgiven for giving birth to the Soviets, where for the first time in history the masses had seized and held state power - the historic nightmare of the ruling class. Ever since this birth, the world bourgeoisie has been obsessed by a drive to destroy it."
a) it was never the masses. It was a "vanguard" as Lenin called it - an elite. The masses of 1917 wanted an end to war and some land to cultivate
b) the world bourgeoisie - or at least the most powerful American section - actually helped them
Saul G. Bron, during his tenure as chairman of Amtorg Trading Corporation in 1927-1930, contracted with leading American companies to help build Soviet industrial infrastructure and commissioned the firm of the foremost American industrial architect from Detroit, Albert Kahn, as consulting architects to the Soviet Government. The work of both played a major role in laying the foundation of the Soviet automotive, tractor, and tank industry and led to the development of Soviet defense capabilities, which in turn played an important role in the Allies' defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/41933723
https://www.jstor.org/stable/178483
Influential newspapers like the NYT denied the 1930s famines in the Soviet Union.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 30 2023 19:30 utc | 93
A HREF="https://weapons.substack.com/p/risks-for-nato-in-ukraines-attacks/">Risks for NATO in Ukraine's Attacks on Russian Territory by stephen bryen its the reason i am asking about the plausible deniability questions here..
Posted by: james | Aug 30 2023 19:34 utc | 94
Risks for NATO in Ukraine's Attacks on Russian Territory by stephen bryen let me fix that..
Posted by: james | Aug 30 2023 19:35 utc | 95
[email protected] NATO is winding down, sounds good, the dopes must be roped out.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 30 2023 19:38 utc | 96
Just a thought. What if the Wagner group now decided to take over the Russian speaking areas of Latvia, if they were the ones that sent the dones. (Or Estonia if they were the ones).
They are "no longer" Russian troops, and could only be accused of deciding to do soemthing off their own initiative.
Would NATO go to war against a proven capable force, with the possibility that Russia itself might follow rapidly "to save the Russian speakers" or some such motivation?
*****
They are probably going to either to Africa or Syria, but who knows? Latvia has UK troops, I think, and as they are so involved in Ukraine it may seem like just returns.
my 97
"Sent the dones" - well the drones may do them in, in which case they will be well and truly be done over.
Like many other posters, I thought the Charap piece was woefully bad. I am not that much of a military scholar to effectively critique, but on the whole I think Big Serge covers the ground rather well.
Cheers!
Posted by: JP Straley | Aug 30 2023 19:43 utc | 99
The idea that Ukraine can, or will, continue to watch apathetically as thousands of men are killed, to amuse the imperial ruling class, every week is unconvincing: all that keeps the regime together is terror under the beedy eyes of the NATO sponsors.
Posted by: bevin | Aug 30 2023 18:31 utc | 74
That's wishful thinking, rest assured that a large proportion of the population supports the war,joining the West etc go and talk to some ukrainians.
Then not being eager to enlist or being cynical about politicians does not equal being willing to support a rebellion or being willing to join Russia. It may just mean cowardice and again that is not prime rebellion material.
Rhetorical question: do you think germans in WW2 fought only because of "terror"? Because then I have bad news...
Posted by: Satepestage | Aug 30 2023 19:49 utc | 100
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This website is a tribute to you b. Keep up the great work!
Posted by: Flash | Aug 30 2023 11:59 utc | 1