Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 25, 2023

Who Can Give Security Guarantees To Ukraine?

A main question for Ukraine since it became an independent state was who or what could potentially guarantee its security.

In the first years after 1991 the Ukrainian government thought that it could secure itself. It had inherited some Soviet nuclear weapons and it tried to bring those to use. But it failed to circumvent the security locks the Russian engineers had integrated into the nuclear warheads.

There was also pressure from the U.S. to get rid of those devices as the Ukraine at that time was prolific in selling its Soviet era weapons to various shady actors around the world.

Ukraine, together with Belarus and Kazakhstan, was pressed to enter the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In exchange it got the Budapest Memorandum, a weak promise of non-interference:

The memoranda, signed in Patria Hall at the Budapest Convention Center with US Ambassador Donald M. Blinken amongst others in attendance, prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, "except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations." As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons.

Two side notes are of interest:

  1. Ambassador Donald M. Blinken is the father of the current Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
  2. Formally Russia has not broken the Budapest Memorandum. It recognized the People's Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent states. It signed security agreements with them and then entered the war in Ukraine, which had been ongoing since 2014, under Article 51 - common self defense - of the Charter of the United Nations. Jurists will debate that argument for years but it is not dissimilar to the argument NATO used to justify the violent break-up Yugoslavia.

After the Budapest Memorandum was signed the Soviet nuclear weapons weapons Ukraine and others still had were sent back to Russia.

By mid of the first decade of the third millennium Russia had largely recuperated from the shocks that had followed the break up of the Soviet Union. The Ukraine had meanwhile fallen further apart. The population sharply decreased, its industries broke down and wide spread corruption was eating up what was left from its riches. Its own army, while on paper still well armed, was no longer able to defend the country. That was fine at that time as no one was really interested in threatening it.

But NATO, in breach of promises given to Russia, expanded and crept nearer to the Ukrainian border. In 2008 in Bucharest, the U.S. used a NATO summit to press other NATO countries to offer Ukraine a Membership Action Plan (MAP). There was however no future date attached to that promise.

In 2013 the European Union pressed the Ukraine to sign a free trade agreement with it. Russia, which was the biggest trading partner of Ukraine, made a counter offer that was financially better and had less political restrictions attached to it. Then President Victor Yanukovych of Ukraine had to reject the EU agreement. The U.S., together with the German secret service BND, had long standing ties with the right-wing groups in west-Ukraine which had previously cooperated with Nazi Germany and had been attached to the German Nazi-Wehrmacht. The CIA reactivated these groups and instigated a violent color-revolution in Kiev.

That revolution led to a civil war as large parts of the ethic Russians in east Ukraine rejected the new regime that had been installed by a west Ukrainian minority.

While the ethnic Russians in Ukraine lost control over most of their original areas they also soon defeated what was left of the Ukraine army. They did so twice.

Since 2015 the conflict was stalled. The Minsk agreements, under which Ukraine was supposed to became federalized, were signed, but Ukraine stalled their implementation. Meanwhile the U.S. and Britain used the time to reinstate and rearm the Ukrainian army.

By 2021 the Ukraine was ready to attack the People's Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. Russia activated its army and warned that it would have to interfere with such plans. The imminent launch of an Ukrainian attack was called off. In early 2022 the U.S. gave the Ukrainians a green light to launch their long planned attack. Russia intervened and the current war started.

The U.S. plans behind the war expected that the pre-coordinated western sanctions that immediately followed would ruin Russia, that Russia would be shunned by the rest of the world and that a military defeat of the Russian army would lead to regime change in Moscow.

The Ukraine expected that, after winning a war against its separatists, it would immediately become a member of NATO.

Neither of the (totally unrealistic) expectations was met.

The Ukraine is now obviously losing the war. It will soon need to sign a capitulation like ceasefire agreement with Russia.

But who or what can guarantee that any such agreement will be held up?

NATO membership is no longer an option.

On July 11 a summit of the North Atlantic Council in Vilnius declared that Ukraine would not have to follow the formal Membership Action Plan. But it then replaced the formal MAP conditions for membership with a way more vague formulation:

We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.

The NATO Secretary General was even more explicit:

... unless Ukraine wins this war, there's no membership issue to be discussed at all.

There will be no NATO membership or NATO security guarantees for Ukraine, neither now nor ever.

A direct full security guarantee from Washington to Kiev is also impossible. It would create a high likelihood of a direct war between the U.S. and Russia which would soon become nuclear. The U.S. will not want to risk that.

So when, during the preparations of the Vilnius summit, it had become clear that allies would not agree to Ukraine's membership, U.S. President Biden presented an alternative:

The US is willing to offer Kiev a sort of security arrangement currently offered to Israel instead of membership in NATO, President Joe Biden told CNN in an interview previewed on Friday.

“I don’t think it’s ready for membership in NATO,” Biden said of Ukraine. “I don’t think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war.”

“And one of the things I indicated is, the United States would be ready to provide, while the process was going on, and that’s gonna take a while, to provide security a la the security we provide for Israel: providing the weaponry they need, the capacity to defend themselves,” Biden said, adding, “If there is an agreement, if there is a ceasefire, if there is a peace agreement.”

That however is even more unrealistic than a NATO membership. As Geoffrey Aronson convincingly argues:

The relevance of the Israel model embraced by Biden to Ukraine’s security is deeply flawed conceptually and practically.
...
In operational terms, the Israel model is barely relevant to the predicament that Ukraine finds itself in and hardly a good model upon which to build the desired security relationship between the United States, NATO, and Ukraine. In conceptual terms, there is little beyond a superficial comparison between Jerusalem and Kyiv to recommend the concept.
...
U.S.-Israel security ties were born out of three principal elements: (1) Cold War competition in the Middle East; (2) Israel’s overwhelming victory in June 1967; and (3) Israel’s surreptitious development of a nuclear weapons capability from the 1950s onward.

It is all but impossible that Ukraine will be able to exit its war with Russia with the kind of total territorial victory that provided the basis for U.S.-Israel ties after June 1967.
...
In this context, there may well be those in Ukraine (but one hopes not in Washington) who see the Israel model—creating an integrated nuclear weapons option while maintaining nuclear ambiguity as long as the conventional weapons pipeline from Washington is open—as instructive.

But here too reality intrudes. The U.S. bargain with Israel aims explicitly at assuring Israel’s superiority in conventional weapons against any combination of Arab/Iranian enemies. To that end, through FY2020, the United States has provided Israel with $146 billion in military, economic, and missile defense funding—$236 billion in 2018 dollars.

In just the first year of the war, Ukraine received $77 billion from Washington, about one-half of its total military, economic, and humanitarian assistance.

At best, the U.S. military support at current historic levels has won Kyiv a military stalemate. Ukraine, certainly out of NATO and arguably even as a member, will never enjoy an Israeli-style Quality Military Edge (QME) over Moscow, or be able to command the region’s strategic or security agenda as Israel has done in the Middle East.

Russia's might makes even an attempt of an Israel like security guarantee for Ukraine too costly for the U.S. and thereby simply impossible.

There is only one country in the world that can guarantee peace in Ukraine and the security of its borders. That country is Russia!

But any such guarantee will of course come with conditions attached to it. Either Ukraine will accept those or it will never be secure from outer interference.

That is simply a fact of life Ukraine has had to, and will have to live with.

Posted by b on July 25, 2023 at 16:35 UTC | Permalink

Comments
next page »

For that matter, with the Western track record of sham agreements, what agreement can the West offer that Russia can rely upon?

Posted by: Feral Finster | Jul 25 2023 16:44 utc | 1

This article should be posted in front of every foreign affairs correspondent.
But truth was never in the equation then was it,?

Posted by: jpc | Jul 25 2023 16:47 utc | 2

……. There is only one country in the world that can guarantee peace in Ukraine and the security of its borders. That country is Russia……

Hear Hear

Posted by: Exile | Jul 25 2023 16:53 utc | 3

Exactly. Well said. Thank you again, b, for your logical análisis.

Posted by: c | Jul 25 2023 16:53 utc | 4

The genesis of this war is directly related to decisions made from 1917-1954.

A proper examination and history of Ukraine from 1917-1954 would make for a very interesting read.

Posted by: Julian | Jul 25 2023 16:59 utc | 5

One thing that Ukraine does have in common with Israel is the existence of a politically powerful emigre based lobby in north America and, increasingly, western Europe. In the case of Ukraine this is bolstered by the fact that the Ukrainians are one among many diasporas organised as anti-communist, which have now morphed into simply Russophobic, forces.
In Canada, for example, where there are emigre voting blocs from all over eastern and southern Europe that were involved from the late forties in anti-union (busting the UEW and Mine Mill) and anti-socialist movements. One of the bases of Canada's 'multicultural' policy is that it makes government subsidy of Nazi collaborator organisations permanent. Hence the failure, eighty years on, of the descendants of, for example, members of the Waffen SS to integrate with a host society that was, at least nominally, on the other side.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 25 2023 17:01 utc | 6

Formally Russia has not broken the Budapest Memorandum
...
Jurists will debate that argument for years but it is not dissimilar to the argument NATO used to justify the violent break-up Yugoslavia.

The difference is that NATO's argument was based on totally fraudulent claims while Russia's argument was based on totally provable claims. To that degree they are not comparable.

Posted by: BM | Jul 25 2023 17:03 utc | 7

Before even reading the article I’d already surmised the conclusion. Only Russia can guarantee the Ukraines security.
Once this war is over the Ukrainian people will themselves purge the Azovs and others who caused the mayhem. They will also send the Blackrock and similar carpetbaggers packing, repudiate all western debt as odious and welcome Russian money, logistics and expertise to rebuild.
I’m sure the Nuland types think that Ukraine will be a hotbed of guerilla war against any Russians but more likely most die hard Ukraine nationalist will realise that the West used and abused them and cost so many lives, they will seek vengeance and redemption by going after Nuland types with extreme prejudice anywhere and everywhere.

Posted by: Neal | Jul 25 2023 17:04 utc | 8

The other issue with an Israeli model is that it is relatively unwritten. It holds because both political parties are internally committed to it, the Israeli lobby is incredibly powerful and no US President is willing to try to change it. It’s been around so long that it’s essentially impossible to really change. That won’t be the case for Ukraine.

Israel has actual power in the relationship, Ukraine would not and that means the security guarantees would be relatively easy for any presidential administration to ignore or walk back. What’s Ukraine going to do about it?

This is just Biden trying to climb down from the branch he’s been sawing off underneath himself. The admin looked around for an off the shelf solution and this one sounds plausible without requiring an actual commitment. If Kiev is dumb enough to accept it (as if Kiev has a choice), then it deserves whatever little it gets. Trusting the US is a fruitless endeavor.

Posted by: Lex | Jul 25 2023 17:05 utc | 9

The failure of many western weapons in Ukraine must raise doubts about the QME of Israel over its neighbours.

Posted by: rowboatrob | Jul 25 2023 17:09 utc | 10

Seems to me that NATO was the first to breach the Budapest agreement of non-interference when they supported/instigated a color revolution.

Posted by: manderson | Jul 25 2023 17:10 utc | 11

I presume that the US gave a green light for Ukraine to attack and cleanse the Donbas after the initial Ukrainian build up of Spring 2022. Russia preempted that scenario, and Putin compared the situation to Operation Storm in a speech at the start of the SMO. That's an astute observation on his part, and supports his methodical approach of first recognizing the Donbas Republics, in line with the UN Charter right of self-determination and anticipatory collective self-defense.

It seems now that the US wanted Ukraine to attack, hence the increase in shelling noted by the OSCE and the build up of Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.

But did the US clearly think that Ukraine could take the Donbas without provoking a Russian response? Unlikely.

So the plan must have been for Ukraine to attack as a means of deliberately drawing in the Russians, who would be stuck with an insurgency or quagmire. In fact Ukrainians have reported that the nature of CIA training was precisely for an insurgency, hence the specific weapons given, like Javelins. Sanctions from hell would follow, and protests in Russia would collapse the "Putin regime." This would set the stage for the war on China, which would lose its strategic ally in the rear. All of this 'makes sense' from the standpoint of world imperialism.

Ukrainian nationalists were dumb enough to think they could survive and win, and that Ukraine would then join NATO.

However, Russia's economy of force SMO is all about degrading Ukraine and NATO. It is about forcing Ukraine to recognize that only Russia can protect it, and forcing NATO to accept the principle of equal security.

In retrospect, all of this seems very well gamed and planned by the Russian side, which understood the objective reality, predicted the likely responses by the west, and made plans to overcome the trap and set the conditions for winning.

Recent estimates are that Ukraine has lost 300k troops KIA. Russian military production is escalating, for example, tanks, artillery, and drones are being churned out. NATO is running empty and can't ramp up enough production. The Ukrainian counter offensive failed miserably. Ukraine is starting to look like an albatross for the west ahead of upcoming elections. Europe is in economic crisis and deindustrializing. US economic growth is barely 1 percent, while China is running at over 5 percent. The global south has de facto stood with Russia.

All these dynamics suggest an end to the war within 12 months. We now wait for that will look like.


Posted by: Prof | Jul 25 2023 17:19 utc | 12

I think "Tony the phony" Blinken has trotted out the "declare victory and leave the quislings to their fate" canard so popular with DC & London's "in crowd". Problem is, politically, Biden needs the war to last through the election before he cuts and runs. and that last part is a difficult thing at this point because, DC/London/Berlin/Brussel's have burned their bridges with Russia consequently, a face saving negotiation is no longer something most Russians would consider.

The blundering fools of DC/London/Berlin/Brussels have painted themselves into a corner. Sting once opined "there is no military solution" in regard to the cold-war stalemate of the 1980's, the opposite is true today, "there is no political solution" thanks to the blundering fools of DC/London/Berlin/Brussels that are today's "elite", today's rulers.

Posted by: S Brennan | Jul 25 2023 17:20 utc | 13

There is only one country in the world that can guarantee peace in Ukraine and the security of its borders. That country is Russia!

Exactly.
The very idea that US (or Poland or whoever) might provide a security guarantee to Ukraine makes a negotiated peace impossible.

Still in backing away from Ukraine some reckless and illogical promises are to be expected out of US.

Posted by: Michael Droy | Jul 25 2023 17:22 utc | 14

Thanks for the post, b. That is a mighty aggressive quotation that you posted there. I can’t help but wonder if the next section after that says the fall of Europe(tm) means that some entirely new security arrangement will have to be established. I will investigate after posting. So… you don’t think Von der Leyen and her crew have anything to offer Ukraine? Nor Germany?

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jul 25 2023 17:23 utc | 15

The failure of many western weapons in Ukraine must raise doubts about the QME of Israel over its neighbours.

Posted by: rowboatrob | Jul 25 2023 17:09 utc | 12

Indeed. Failure of weapons; failure of productive capacity to support a medium sized war in er exactly the place Nato exists to fight in; failure of judgement; failure of care for the proxy (again).

I can hear it now though, "We shall fight Iran to the last Israeli"

Posted by: Michael Droy | Jul 25 2023 17:26 utc | 16

So the plan must have been for Ukraine to attack as a means of deliberately drawing in the Russians, who would be stuck with an insurgency or quagmire. In fact Ukrainians have reported that the nature of CIA training was precisely for an insurgency, hence the specific weapons given, like Javelins. Sanctions from hell would follow, and protests in Russia would collapse the "Putin regime." This would set the stage for the war on China, which would lose its strategic ally in the rear. All of this 'makes sense' from the standpoint of world imperialism.

Posted by: Prof | Jul 25 2023 17:19 utc | 13

Initial US plan was Ukraine to attack Donbass and do the ethnic cleansing with the 150-200k troops they piled in Donbass, and then move them to take Crimea as they didn't have strength to do both at the same time. IIRC in beginning of SMO they discovered these detailed attack plans from captured Nato/AFU HQs (yes, there was a Nato HQ in Mariupol).

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 25 2023 17:32 utc | 17

Here it is — follow up to my @15. Same org, feature article

Playing to Europe, Biden’s “Thaw” is Emboldening the CCP
[exit Westphalia, enter Marxist-Leninism]

“EU leaders increasingly speak of a “multipolar world” where China plays a prominent role. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky—currently besieged by the man Xi once called his “best, most intimate friend”—has even suggested that his country could be a “bridge to Europe” for Chinese businesses.” … … “ Steadily, Xi is reshaping the rules-based international order with impunity. If neither Europe nor America resist, this diplomatic activity could herald China’s “new world order” sooner than expected.”

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Jul 25 2023 17:43 utc | 18

The 2008 NATO summit was in BuCHARest, not BuDAPest.

Posted by: Susan Welsh | Jul 25 2023 17:44 utc | 19

When Russia provides Ukraine with a security guarantee and abides by it, the Global South will notice and continue its separation from the hegemon.

Posted by: Wilikins | Jul 25 2023 17:50 utc | 20

I can hear it now though, "We shall fight Iran to the last Israeli"

Posted by: Michael Droy | Jul 25 2023 17:26 utc | 16

I don't think the Israeli's can be made to fight much more than sub-teen children.

Posted by: qparker | Jul 25 2023 17:51 utc | 21

What a wonderful, wonderful post this is! You may censor my comments, b, but I can't help admiring your geopolitical talent. I'm going to get my wife, whose smarter than I am, to figure out a way to reasonable send you some money.

Let me add that, selfishly, I am glad that you didn't finish your thesis which would lead you to producing academic trivia. Now you are doing something significant that benefits the people of the entire world.

Posted by: Mathew | Jul 25 2023 17:51 utc | 22

Has the USA or the UK/Canada ever honoured a treaty with treaty with the indigenous peoples of North America? Today most people are unaware that a few areas within Canada which are considered unceded territory, places where no treaties have been agreed to. For some the who know the ugliness of corporate government have passed the generational stories on to our children, from the time of the Hudson Bay Company and Northwest Company with pox-poisoned blankets, and today it is the energy and forestry companies killing the land, the fight against corporate governments current leader PM Blackface Trudeau continues.

Posted by: Bill Miner | Jul 25 2023 17:53 utc | 23

The GDP of NATO countries is about $47 trillion, the GDP of Russia is about $2.2 trillion. Based upon GDP, one would expect NATO countries to outproduce Russia in arms more than 20 times. This does not seem to be the case. Yet metrics such as GDP are used to make business decisions daily.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 25 2023 18:05 utc | 24

Ukraine needs to be eradicated from the map and as an idea, for the simple reason that there can be no such thing as Ukrainian nationalism that is not Nazi. That ship has long sailed -- any form of independent Ukrainian statehood from here on will be infested with vicious hateful Banderite ideology for if it is not, it all falls apart. Just think about what kind of "national heroes" they already have and they will add to that from the current historical episode -- terrorists like Zaluzhny, and Budanov, the Azov thugs who drove around randomly shooting civilians, etc.

The only way forward is to just end it and never allow it to be reconstituted. Whatever Banderites have not been killed after the war is over you either physically exterminate (e.g. reintroduce the death penalty and have having Nazi tattoos and other paraphernalia be punishable with execution) or deport to Canada and the US, for the remaining ethnically Russian population you work hard on reversing the brainwashing, and you repopulate Western Ukraine with Russians from Siberia, Buryats, Chechens, Uzbeks, etc.

It will take several generations, and if it can be combined with a Israel-style assassination campaign of leading nationalist figures abroad (why, FFS, are the likes of Chrystia Freeland still alive? Russian secrete services could not have taken them out all these years?), so that the capacity for stirring trouble from a distance is minimized, then even better, but that is the only way out of this mess, created by a century-plus of some necessary compromises (having an UkSSR was one) mixed in with a long series of extremely stupid deliberate decisions (doing forced Ukrainization in the 1920s was an entirely unforced error -- and the monster had already revealed itself with all the pogroms and ethnic cleansing that Petliura and the UNA did -- and so were amnestying the Banderites by Khrushchev and later the traitors in the Kremlin not lifting a finger to stop them from completely taking over after 1991).

Formally Russia has not broken the Budapest Memorandum

Actually the Budapest Memorandum doesn't just concern territorial integrity and the use of force, the wording specifically mentions "to respect the independence and sovereignty".

As such it was already null and void after 2004-05 and the Orange Revolution, and if there was any doubt about that then, the 2013-14 Maidan events left no room for argument. Kiev has been an outright colony of the US ever since, which completely breaks the commitment to "independence and sovereignty". It was only after that had already happened that Russia moved in to reclaim Crimea.

Posted by: shаdowbanned | Jul 25 2023 18:11 utc | 25

Julian @ 5

The genesis of this war is directly related to decisions made from 1917-1954.

I think most every geopolitical evil of the modern day can be traced to the Western world's reaction to 1917.

Posted by: warxism | Jul 25 2023 18:12 utc | 26

And not to forget that the USA explicitly broke the Budapest Memorandum first by sanctioning Belarus in 2013 and threatening to sanction Ukraine in early February 2022 if Yanukovych doesn't comply to western demands, thus commiting "economic coercion" as Article 3 of the Memorandum states.

Posted by: Roland | Jul 25 2023 18:17 utc | 27

thanks for this realism here b... indeed any peace or security agreement must be signed with russia... i don't think the slow wits in the west or ukraine are able to acknowledge this however..

Posted by: james | Jul 25 2023 18:23 utc | 28

... unless Ukraine wins this war, there's no membership issue to be discussed at all.
Translation: Ukraine has to prove that NATO membership is irrelevant before NATO membership can be discussed at all.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 25 2023 18:23 utc | 29

You are right, "Ukrainian" nationalism is completely wrapped up in fascist ideology, mainly because there is no such thing as a "Ukrainian". That whole concept is a foreign invention designed as a weapon against Russia. The so called Ukrainians are the rump population of southern Russia that were devastated and reduced by the Mongol invasion. Their broken remnants spent as much as 400 years under a brutal polish occupation, lasting from the mid 1300's to the end of the 1700's. The whole concept of a separate "Ukrainian" people was concocted by Polish academics biter that Poland lost it's empire in Western Russia, and their own statehood as well. These falsehoods grew in the liberal sectors of the universities, even within the Russian Empire. The mid 1800's were the glory days of "Nationalism". Some quite bizarre theories on "Ukrainians" were hatched in those days. But it was the Austrian Empire that really pushed the ideology in that part of western Russia it took from the Poles.It ended with concentration camps for those who refused to accept a "Ukrainian" identity. By the time these territories passed back to Poland, violence in the name of the cause was deeply instilled in their being.

Posted by: nook | Jul 25 2023 18:32 utc | 30

Passerby @ 24

The GDP of NATO countries is about $47 trillion, the GDP of Russia is about $2.2 trillion. Based upon GDP, one would expect NATO countries to outproduce Russia in arms more than 20 times. This does not seem to be the case. Yet metrics such as GDP are used to make business decisions daily.

Arms manufacturing in the U.S. makes up like 1.8% of GDP. I assume similar numbers for other NATO countries. Once the stockpile is gone, I can't imagine there's the industrial infrastructure to replace it in any manner of reasonable time.

Posted by: warxism | Jul 25 2023 18:34 utc | 31

Interestingly, we haven't heard of a single Israeli soldier or mercenary fighting in the Ukraine, and they are our "greatest ally"..LOL

Posted by: pyrrhus | Jul 25 2023 18:39 utc | 32

There is only one country in the world that can guarantee peace in Ukraine and the security of its borders. That country is Russia.

====================================

Exactly. Which reveals an underlying irony: the only way Ukraine could possibly be a helpful member of NATO would be that if it is within the Russian sphere of influence and NATO has stood down with its anti-Russia stance and moreover has taken up Putin's old offer and invited Russia to join it (at which point it can cheerfully dissolve). It's the only possible win-win outcome in all this.

Of course, that means the European people will have effected regime change in their own countries, reclaimed national sovereignty and finally started joining into the Great Eurasian Civilization now lifting off.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 25 2023 18:40 utc | 33


All economic statistics are fudged big time in the US, it basically went off the charts starting in the 80's and only got worse year after year.

Posted by: qparker | Jul 25 2023 18:42 utc | 34

……All these dynamics suggest an end to the war within 12 months. We now wait for that will look like.
Posted by: Prof | Jul 25 2023 17:19 utc | 12……

A very well thought out summary. Especially the President of Russia’s referencing Operation Storm in Aug 1995. However, it’s unlikely that The Ukrainan Civil War ends by August 2024. The War Party can keep the fighting simmering as long as it can pay Mercs and buy weapons.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 25 2023 18:45 utc | 35

Posted by: bevin | Jul 25 2023 17:01 utc | 6

What do you make of Ivan Katchanovski's work - and attendant situation - at the University of Ottawa (in Canada's capital city) on the snipers and Maidan? I was aware of the pro-Azov anti-communist presence of Ukrainian and Eastern European emigres in Canada and their apparent power. So is the professor under pressure of any kind? He seems to be a prolific researcher of the true history of the Maidan and the Ukrainian right sector and that can't be a popular position in Canada these days. Just curious.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 18:47 utc | 36

So bar flies, I apologise for the discontinuity in this thread, but I was astounded by the replies to this article in our favourite western MSM publication {Der Sturmer} The Daily Telegraph on Putin expanding the criteria for being conscripted – is this even true? I have disguised the commentators on the off chance that one or two are genuine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/24/vladimir-putin-raises-age-limit-to-boost-russian-troops/

“Vladimir Putin has raised the age limit at which Russian reservists can be mobilised to 55 in an apparent attempt to boost troop numbers for Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

A new law signed by the Russian president means high-ranking officers will be eligible to be mobilised up until the age of 55, up from 50 previously, while privates and sergeants can be called up until the age of 40, up from 35.

The lower age limit for middle-ranking officers will meanwhile be raised to 50, from 45 previously.”

Shock horror, and in his desperation [Putin] will introduce these measures over a 4 year period according to the DT.

I am trying to see how far I can go before my DT account – that I cannot seem to cancel – will be banned. Anyway, this gives you some idea of the racist propaganda being published in what was once a great newspaper. And I think none of the comments are from real readers.

So here is a sample of the thread with my comment at the top.

Comment by marcjf
1 min ago

I see Brigade 77 is working overtime here. Any chance of an article on UAF press gangs throwing anyone they can catch into the cauldron? No, thought not. This passes for news?

Comment by F
7 hrs ago

It takes quite some ruthlessness to light a chandle when at the same time being responsible for the destruction of a church besides countless murders of women and children. I guess the church personnel assisting him will join him in hell too.

Comment by F
7 hrs ago

Given Russian habits, I guess most of them already suffer from severe liver damage.

Comment by J
8 hrs ago

Lovely, there will now be over 60's living in Thailand and Dubai to escape the Orc King!

Comment by K
8 hrs ago

Wars have a strange way of not working out the way dictators like. A DESPERATE DICTATOR sending as many people to die as possible , as long a he wins.

Comment by R
9 hrs ago

'Let's widen the net and kill as many of my fellow countrymen as I can to support my delusions', thinks Putin. He's perfectly safe with his minders, bunkers, armoured train and billion pound mansion villages.

Reply by J

8 hrs ago

Plus, body doubles and more body bags! edited

Comment by M
9 hrs ago

Don't knock it, thousands of Russian, Soviet style trained officers, with their ossified thinking should do wonders for Ukraine's war effort!

Comment by L
9 hrs ago

The cluster munitions having the desired effect?

Comment by H
10 hrs ago

"Who do you think you are kidding Mr Putin..."

'Vlad's Army'.

"Don't panic!"

"We're doomed!"

Up two three, wiggle wiggle.

Comment by C
10 hrs ago

Sure sgn of weakness and panic.

Comment by D
10 hrs ago

Desperate. Not long to go now.

Reply by K

8 hrs ago

Hopefully not.

Comment by M
10 hrs ago

China are getting ready to invade Southern Siberia.

They used to own it when it was called Northern Manchuria, so under Putin's logic, it must still belong to China.

Putin has almost no army left to defend that southern flank.

Comment by M
10 hrs ago

By Xmas it will be 65 - happy Xmas old Russians!

Comment by A
10 hrs ago

55? He has the attitude as Ivan IV and Stalin, death good!!!

Totally evil man.

Comment by M
10 hrs ago

Come on Putin...the game is up! Time for retirement to that 6th floor room. You've humiliated your country. The World can see the situation clearly. However, you're a joker with a nuclear arsenal. Does Russia want to go down that route over YOUR plans?

Mighty bear, more like Paddington!

Comment by J
11 hrs ago

He must be getting desperate.

Comment by S
11 hrs ago

An eye on state pension liabilities?

Comment by P
11 hrs ago

Putin calling up more men will put Russia's economy further into the red. I wonder how long it'll be before China starts biting chunks out of a weakened Russia - they're already an economic vassal.

Reply by M

10 hrs ago

Both China and India , Putin's imaginary friends , are exploiting the situation.

Comment by a
11 hrs ago

“Putin lights a candle in a cathedral”, not for all the women and children he has murdered. No doubt there will be a special operation when he arrives in hell.

Comment by W
11 hrs ago

At least they’ll already have their own wheelchairs.

Comment by H
12 hrs ago

‘ The average age at which Russian men become grandfathers is 53 years.’

So Putin is raising a grandfather’s army. Desperate……

Comment by S
14 hrs ago

Russia is a busted flush. Meanwhile NATO has an increased presence on the Russian border,due to Putrids idiocy, which caused Finland to join. NATO has all its mliitary assets intact


Posted by: marcjf | Jul 25 2023 18:48 utc | 37

They would not have the same need for security guarantees if they did not participate in threatening their larger neighbors.

Ukraine brought this on, deliberately. Suicidally, as it turns out.

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Jul 25 2023 18:49 utc | 38

What is "capitulation like ceasefire"? What would happen is Ukrainian's full capitulation. Perhaps before the end of the year. When Ukraine has been purged of the neo-nazis, either by being captured, killed or escaped to Germany, Nordic and Baltic countries. Then the new government of whatever is left of Ukraine would make nice with Russia and perhaps obtain a solid security guarantee like the one Belarus is having at the moment.

Posted by: Steve | Jul 25 2023 19:01 utc | 39

O/T but also on-topic question. Every time I attempt to post a link to an RT article here, the comment is summarily and unceremoniously flushed into the ether, seemingly automatically as there's no way b has time to monitor and react that quickly.

Is RT somehow auto-banned at MoA? Is it the Wordpress or Typepad (I forget which this site uses) platform doing that?

Does anyone else have issues cross-posting RT links at MoA?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 19:05 utc | 40

Back on topic.

The logical end game for Russia if it is to win a war against a [quasi] Neo-nazi regime in Kiev is to not allow it to survive. So my guess is that a deal will be done to allow Poland to [annex] the western regions - maybe some other countries have a piece of the pie - and Russia gets the pro-Russian and southern areas. Why would Russia pay all this blood and treasure to let Ukraine and the Z regime continue? Does not work for me. If Putin proposed it I suggest he might find himself an ex-President pretty fast.

Why would Russia allow an annexation of the western regions? Well short of WW3 NATO will still be there and Poland will be re-arming. Do a deal. Nazi-Soviet Pact style and sup with the devil. Take what you really want, give away with conditions that which would be a problem and try to make an uneasy peace.

I cannot see a scenario now where Russia allows Ukraine any real independence, given its out of control regime and genocidal tendencies. In my view it is really only what the end game now looks like and what fig leaf will be used to disguise the reality.

And Mr Z and his mates need to watch their backs as Uncle Sam will be very unhappy.

And so no - Ukraine will not join NATO - because it will no longer exist.

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 25 2023 19:11 utc | 41

@Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 19:05 utc | 40

Does anyone else have issues cross-posting RT links at MoA?
It works on and off without any clear pattern.
Kiev’s defense chief makes new excuses for counteroffensive failures

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 25 2023 19:12 utc | 42

Ukraine does not need "that" form of security anyway. The US is using it as a way to separate the EU from the Eurasian landmass. By making it militarily isolated and "strong" it is only useful as a physical barrier. As a barrier to open passage and to trade routes, it fortifies the US "Bloc" (= under the thumb of the dumb) as another brick in the wall.

So conversely, China and the BRI countries may be one answer to the problem. It will be in the interest of BOTH the EU and "Eurasia" (Eurasian landmass) to have a peaceful Ukraine to cross at will and to be able to trade with. ie. The EU and the Russians, ..aaand all the countries as far as China would be guarantors - in their own interest.

Clearly the US is not going to like that at all.
****

Posted by: Stonebird | Jul 25 2023 19:15 utc | 43

Let's say Poland gets to annex the western portion of the former Ukraine and Russia takes the east. Doesn't that still amount to a population of rabid Nazis - AND - NATO directly abutting Russia's westernmost borders? How would that be acceptable to Moscow, since all it's really accomplishing is erasing the nominal presence of a country called Ukraine (which is admittedly an important task)?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 19:17 utc | 44

@all

“ The U.S., together with the German secret service BND, had long standing ties with the right-wing groups in west-Ukraine which had previously cooperated with Nazi Germany and had been attached to the German Nazi-Wehrmacht. ”

I am very interested in material on the subject, espacially the BND angle.
I have a good overview on the subject but i have time now for a deepdive.

Thank you …

Posted by: El.Lissitzky | Jul 25 2023 19:17 utc | 45

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 25 2023 18:48 utc | 37

I'm afraid that's a general pattern. Just have to live with it.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 25 2023 19:19 utc | 46

The corrupted filth that calls itself the leader of the Free World has screwed the pooch in full view of the neighbors. Now they're going to convince everyone that they've reformed and are actually the good guys? Hahaha.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Jul 25 2023 19:20 utc | 47

Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 19:05 utc | 40

O/T reply;
RT has been unavailable (as has Sputnick) in all of France since the start of the SMO. It is probably NOT b's site that is the problem but your local "think-corrected Government"

Posted by: Stonebird | Jul 25 2023 19:22 utc | 48

et's say Poland gets to annex the western portion of the former Ukraine and Russia takes the east. Doesn't that still amount to a population of rabid Nazis - AND - NATO directly abutting Russia's westernmost borders? How would that be acceptable to Moscow, since all it's really accomplishing is erasing the nominal presence of a country called Ukraine (which is admittedly an important task)?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 19:17 utc | 43

A good question with no easy answer. All I can suggest is that the Polish regime is saner than that of Ukraine and part of a nuclear alliance that does not want MAD because one of its members harbours a neo-nazi loony faction. My guess is that the Poles might surpress the Azov element permenantly. Who can say? What we have at present is out of control so Russia may prefer to deal with someone less toxic, even if slightly so?

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 25 2023 19:23 utc | 49

As long as the core issue is not addressed, that is, the preservation of the counterfeit Jewish US Dollar that lives and thrives at the expense of the productive rest of the world, there will be no peace. The Jewish globalist Bankers' Brotherhood is in an existential war: The loss of their monetary supremacy is so unprecedented that any conventional or nuclear conflagration will be instigated: After all, they are the champions of revolutions, civil wars, world wars, regime changes, and the plundering of other nations monetary riches.

Posted by: -- nietzsche1510 -- | Jul 25 2023 19:29 utc | 50

@Stonebird | Jul 25 2023 19:15 utc | 42

It will be in the interest of BOTH the EU and "Eurasia" (Eurasian landmass) to have a peaceful Ukraine to cross at will and to be able to trade with.
It is not in the interest of the criminal EU. There will be no real peace as long as EU exists. Note that the Russians don't talk to the EU anymore.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 25 2023 19:33 utc | 51

I'm not sure b has all his history ducks in a row.

I don't think/remember that Ukraine ever "inherited some Soviet nuclear weapons" or that "it tried to bring those to use".

The Soviet weapons passed into the control of an international committee the moment that the USSR relinquished authority over Ukraine. I remember reading a paper somewhere that stated that any attempt by Ukraine to retain and re-engineer them would have initiated an immediate and powerful military response from both Russia and NATO/US (as well as generally upsetting the entire apple cart of Ukrainian sovereignty).

Posted by: Cornelius Pipe | Jul 25 2023 19:34 utc | 52

"In 2013 the European Union pressed the Ukraine to sign a free trade agreement with it. Russia, which was the biggest trading partner of Ukraine, made a counteroffer that was financially better and had less political restrictions attached to it."

Posted by b on July 25, 2023 at 16:35 UTC
-------------------------------------------------
It is my understanding (and I would have to go back to articles written soon after the Maidan coup), that President Putin agreed that Russia's "counteroffer" did not in any way restrict Ukraine from also signing a "free trade" agreement with the EU as well. It was the EU that demanded that its "free trade" agreement must exclude doing business with Russia in most cases.

Can you (or anyone) confirm that?

Posted by: Ed | Jul 25 2023 19:38 utc | 53

Thanks b. for this very correct assessment.
I agree that on the end, Russia will be to one to guarantee security to Europe, also throughout central Asia, and together with China, Pacific and South Asia. Also, at some point and that is clear Iran is rapidly becoming the main player, together with Syria, rising again, in the Mideast.
Saudis are happy to have new fresh investment territories and the developing markets in Africa.
As for the Ukraine...I seriously doubt that it will exist in a few month. Too much of a really bad stuff had happened between Ukraine and Russia, so if there would be something left of Ukraine is really in question now, and the discussion in Russia is a bit mixed there.
Biggest question is how NATO retreats on 1991 borders, as it is one of the goals of SMO? And how do you silence the vile UK, the rotten sidekick of the USA, that will obstruct anything good that comes from the good will of Russians and BRICS? Everybody else in Europe is becoming not so important, and that will hurt them for a long time to come.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 25 2023 19:43 utc | 54

For those who haven't seen these and would like to delve a little deeper into the history of the current conflict Oliver Stone produced 2 documentaries (both on Rumble)

Ukraine On Fire (2016)
https://tinyurl.com/bdtx6ass

Revealing Ukraine (2019)
https://tinyurl.com/2cer5nar

Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Jul 25 2023 19:49 utc | 55

Posted by: qparker | Jul 25 2023 18:42 utc | 34

All economic statistics are fudged big time in the US, it basically went off the charts starting in the 80's and only got worse year after year.

You're probably right, but I've never understood what we're supposed to do with this notion. If the numbers are wrong, then there's one of two paths you can reasonably embark down: either 1) the numbers are so off as to be useless in any form of geopolitical/economic analysis or 2) the numbers are slightly off but they roughly comport with reality (and are thus useful in analysis and discussion).

I think manufacturing making up ~10-20% of GDP is pretty on par with reality. How many people do you know work in factories? Seems like the U.S. is way behind any way you look at it.

Posted by: warxism | Jul 25 2023 19:52 utc | 56

Posted by: warxism | Jul 25 2023 19:52 utc | 55 and qparker

I kind of alluded to this last night in the Donald Trump/Union thread. Since I guess around the 80s, the US GDP as officially calculated contains all sorts of bullshit like interest on loans, other debt, financial "services" and the like. Not real-world indicators of true economic/commercial activity.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 19:57 utc | 57

To: El.Lissitzky

The best book about the ties of the "integral nationalists" is Grzegorz Rossolinski-Liebe , Stepan Bandera: The Life and Afterlife of a Ukrainian Nationalist: Fascism, Genocide, and Cult ( Stuttgart, Germany : Ibidem , 2014 ), 654 pp. It exists in kindle. Rossolinski is not a Russia lover, he is Polish. There are also several university dissertations about ties with Canada, US.. that you can find on a search engine.

Posted by: Teraspol | Jul 25 2023 20:00 utc | 58

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 25 2023 18:40 utc | 33

The Great Eurasian Civilization
Multi-Religious, Multi-Cultural, Now Forming

Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Jul 25 2023 20:00 utc | 59

Excellent !

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 25 2023 20:01 utc | 60

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 19:57 utc | 56

Didn't mean to imply that the GDP numbers concerning financial arbitrage or anything of the sort existing purely in the realm of theoretical value have meaningful implications for real-world matters beyond the balance sheets of Goldman and Deutsche.

I just don't understand where we draw the line on the usefulness of certain economic statistics if the numbers are all inherently wrong to some degree.

Posted by: warxism | Jul 25 2023 20:02 utc | 61

Stonebird | Jul 25 2023 19:15 utc | 42--

That's an interesting angle!

The only reason a problem exists is because Ukraine was invented; otherwise, it would be Russia, and Russia would provide security for Russia. Yes, Russia will be the only guarantor of security as b notes, but that will be much simpler if Ukraine vanishes into the ether from which it emerged. And why not? How about Belarus making a deal with Poland granting land to connect it with Kaliningrad and Poland getting a portion of Ukraine that was once Poland. The issue then shifts perhaps to security of the Baltics, which would realistically be an issue only if they remained in NATO for Russia really has no use for them, although perhaps in 100 years the Baltics would again become partners with Russia.

Meanwhile, NATO/EU can only remain viable as long as its main component the Outlaw US Empire does, and that prospect doesn't look good past 2030. Russia wants NATO back to its 1997 configuration and is patient enough to wait and allow the vast number of major economic mistakes the EU has made to take full effect. Thus, the Poles and Balts would be massive fools to substitute for Ukraine against Russia.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 25 2023 20:05 utc | 62

Col Douglas Macgregor said today on Redacted that Russia has begun an advance with 900 tanks and 100k men.
Does anyone know of a confirmation to that?
I looked but havnt found anything.

Posted by: southfront fan | Jul 25 2023 20:06 utc | 63

Prof @ 12

All these dynamics suggest an end to the war within 12 months. We now wait for that will look like.

RESPONSE: Prof, your post at 12 is an excellent review of what most likely what was happening behind the scenes.

I think your conclusion of "an end to the war within 12 months" is accurate. We just don't know for sure how it will end nor exactly when it will end.

I don't think it will end until Russia at least takes all of the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia.

Posted by: young | Jul 25 2023 20:08 utc | 64

>> Who Can Give Security Guarantees To Ukraine?

The article misses two critical aspects:
1. "Who Can Give Security Guarantees To Ukraine" if Russia doesn't lose. The obvious answer is Russia, at least if the war ends with an unconditional surrender of the Ukraine government, or with a defeat of the Ukraine army (likely followed by an unconditional surrender). The latter will likely happen over night. Just like Bakmut: Selensky will claim he's about to win the war until several days after the last Ukrainian soldier has stopped fighting. And then explain how next summer, he'll start a great offensive etc etc etc.

2. In case of a stalemate or negotiations before a complete Russian victory, you are asking the wrong question. It is not WHO can provide security guarantees. But in what context. A Minsk II or Israel-type approach, with NATO pumping weapons into Ukraine, and teaching Nazis how to kill Russians will never be accepted by Russia. A more likely proposal by Russia would build on Putins Proposal before the war: Mutual disarmament, withdrawal of all nuclear weapons several thousand kilometers of the Russian border. When neither side has arms to attack, there won't be attacks. A more creative version of security guarantees.

Posted by: Marvin | Jul 25 2023 20:17 utc | 65

southfront fan @ 62

Col Douglas Macgregor said today on Redacted that Russia has begun an advance with 900 tanks and 100k men.
Does anyone know of a confirmation to that?
I looked but havnt found anything.

RESPONSE: Last week the Russians formed a beachhead across a small river just West of Karmazyanivka in the Luhansk area of the front. This beachhead has been growing in size at a fast rate.

It is no longer just a beachhead. Maybe Col. MacGregor is thinking that this breakthrough is being or will be supported by 100K men and 900 tanks because this is what is believed the Russians have in this area.

MacGregor may be right. Or maybe this is another move by the Russians to continue to put pressure upon the very long (1000 km) zero line.

There are multiple reports that the Ukrainians are responding by sending in reinforcements to stop any serious Russian advance. So, maybe this is just a breakout where the Ukrainian lines were very weak. It could be that the Russians plan for these breakouts to happen throughout the zero line to further weaken the AFU. As Ukraine relocates one group of soldiers to plug the gap, it weakens the lines elsewhere.

Posted by: young | Jul 25 2023 20:26 utc | 66

Warxim 60

The danger with the rubbish gdp figures is that fools believe them and act accordingly.

The only measures of relevance are manufacturing output and agriculture per head. Including services is a fools game.

Posted by: Watcher | Jul 25 2023 20:33 utc | 67

There is only one country in the world that can guarantee peace in Ukraine and the security of its borders. That country is Russia!

Isn't China another country that could provide such security ?
I know that sounds unlikely maybe even bizarre but if Beijing is bold enough it might possibly work. Beijing has a strong hand to play and could gain some powerful advantages if it played it well.
Consider this, major defeats force Kyiv to the negotiating table, Moscow claims it's annexed territories plus a DMZ buffer zone, patrolled by non-NATO forces naturally. Beijing pledges to provide the bulk of such a force (with some non-aligned nations making a contribution) plus funds and resources for reconstruction.
The West wouldn't like it but just might accept it if the alternative is further battlefield defeats and humiliations.
Beijing wins a major diplomatic coup and then has a military force far to the west that can put some real heat onto NATO in case of shenanigans in the Pacific.

Posted by: Jake Dee | Jul 25 2023 20:33 utc | 68

@ Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 19:17 utc | 43

Poland gets to annex the western portion of the former Ukraine and Russia takes the east

That might never happen, really. Poland will get nothing ever, as they got enough from Stalin, and very little from the allies, despite Polish fought and died massively in RAF and at Monte Cassini.
Possible solution might be to re-partition Ukraine along its national lines, meaning Slovakian, Belarusian, Moldovan, Bulgarian, Hungarian, Romanian minorities are given back to their national countries with the territory where they prevail. That however seems difficult to negotiate, and it is not doable without referendums and such.
Or a Swiss canton model could be interesting applicable model of a decentralized democracy, where the state would be pretty much powerless, and cantons can cooperate or have their own policies. That way they might be able to solve the Nazi problem from within, maybe.
Hard stuff awaiting, indeed.

Posted by: whirlX | Jul 25 2023 20:35 utc | 69

A totally accurate assessment. The bad news is that the Ukrainians appear to be a bunch of Nazis hell bent on violent coercion. That will not work. Russia would, I'm sure be glad to guarantee Ukrainian security but that would require (a) the Ukrainians stop being complete assholes and (b) the US/UK/NATO/EU stop interfering in the Ukraine's internal affairs and (c) the Ukrainians resign themselves to poverty until they pull themselves up by their bootstraps... No more free money leasing the Russian base at Sevastopol to Russia, no more free money being paid for the transit of Russian gas over pipelines built by the Soviets that the Ukrainians haven't been maintaining all the while stealing from them.

Posted by: Jeff Harrison | Jul 25 2023 20:45 utc | 70

Posted by: Watcher | Jul 25 2023 20:33 utc | 66

Agreed. But I feel like we don't even have to discount FIRE and non-value-adding professional services from GDP to know that the US/West are vastly undermanned when it comes to a hypothetical scenario in which they are forced to immediately triple or quadruple productive output. Simply don't have the industrial infrastructure for it.

Posted by: warxism | Jul 25 2023 20:47 utc | 71

FWIW, concepts of "security guarantees" expressed above do not correspond to Ukraine regime's concept of capital demanded from any G7 fiduciary duty as "guarantor" not only to underwrite unsecured collateral (ie. real property), but to assume gov.ua liability in the event of gov.ua debt default.

Gov.ua's demands have been consistent, regardless of venue or mawkish rhetorical devices employed by Zelensk* in telethon fund-raising episodes since March 2022. His his 10-point "Peace Plan" addressed to the G20 Summit, 15 Nov 2022, was nothing of the kind. It was a list of unredeemable, intangible coupons for sale to prospective, reluctant "investors" who eluded 9 rounds of G7 sanctions packages.

• nuclear safety
• food security
• energy security
• release of all prisoners and deportees
• the UN Charter and restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the world order
• withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities
• justice
• immediate protection of environment
• the prevention of escalation
• confirmation of the end of the war
Returning to the seminal The Kyiv Security Compact International Guarantees for Ukraine: Recommendations (9 pp pdf), delivered 13 Sep 2022, I quote in part.
The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances [1994] proved worthless. No sufficiently robust, legally and politically binding measures were in place to deter Russian aggression. Unless Ukraine is provided with unique and effective security guarantees - embedded in an eventual peace process - there is no reason to believe that this will not happen again. Ukraine is on the path to EU membership and as a future EU member will benefit from the EU's own mutual defence clause. Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO and benefit from its mutual defence arrangements is safeguarded in its Constitution [sic]. This aspiration is the sovereign decision of Ukraine. Both NATO and EU membership will significantly bolster Ukraine's security in the long-term. However, Ukraine needs security guarantees now.
[...]
KEY RECOMMENDATION$
• The strongest security guarantee for Ukraine lies in its capacity to defend itself against an aggressor under the UN Charter's article 51. To do so, Ukraine needs the resources to maintain a significant defensive force capable of withstanding the Russian Federation's armed forces and paramilitaries.
• This requires a multi-decade effort of sustained investment in Ukraine's defence industrial base, scalable weapons transfers and intelligence support from allies, intensive training missions and joint exercises under the European Union and NATO flags.
• The security guarantees will be positive; they lay out a range of commitments made by a group of guarantors, together with Ukraine. They need to be binding based on bilateral agreements, but brought together under a joint strategic partnership document - called the Kyiv Security Compact.
• The Compact will bring a core group of allied countries together with Ukraine. This could include the US, UK, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey, and Nordic, Baltic, Central and Eastern European countries.

A broader group of international partners including Japan, South Korea, among others, should also support a set of non-military guarantees based on sanctions. It would include snapback sanctions [?!], which are automatically re-applied in case of further Russian aggression. A legal framework should be developed which will allow authorities to seize the property of the aggressor, its sovereign funds and reserves, and the assets of its citizens and entities on the sanctions list. The funds raised should be directed to repair the war damage inflicted on Ukraine.

The guarantees framework may be supplemented by additional agreements, dealing with specific issues not covered in the layers of guarantees discussed in this document. It may include an agreement, or set of agreements, between Ukraine and countries producing anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense equipment to provide Ukraine with modern and effective air defense and anti-missile defense systems in sufficient quantity to ensure a "closed sky" from air attacks.
[...]
A. SECURITY GUARANTEES - COMMITMENTS BY A CORE GROUP OF GUARANTORS REGARDING UKRAINE'S SELF-DEFENCE CAPABILITIES AND CAPACITIES TO DETER AN ATTACK CONCEPT AND PRINCIPLES
[...]
The guarantees must not constrain Ukraine to limit the size or strength of its armed forces. Nor should they be drawn in exchange for a specific status, such as neutrality, or put other obligations or restraints on Ukraine. With those guarantees, Ukraine will sustain its capacity to ensure its self-defence. Their aim is to strengthen Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty, and political independence within its internationally recognized borders. The guarantees should also support Ukraine's commitment to continuing democratic reforms, as specified in the European Council Conclusions of June 23-24, 2022 on granting Ukraine EU candidate status. Effective security for Ukraine is closely related to a modern society that guarantees its citizens their fundamental rights.
[...]

the money quote
To achieve thi$$$, Ukraine will need the group of international guarantors to:
• Provide financial aid and direct investments, including through future reconstruction instruments, to support the national defence budget, as well as ensuring financial assistance (including non-repayable [sic] grants) to restore the infrastructure of Ukraine, which was destroyed or damaged by military actions.
• Allocate reconstruction funds, including non-repayable financial assistance, towards supporting and building Ukraine's new national defence industrial base.
• Offer technology transfers and arms export.
• Coordinate closely among each other to supply capabilities, military equipment, ammunition, and services.
• Establish regular training exercises to Ukrainian forces.
• Establish a cooperation program on cyber defence and security; and countering cyber threats.
• An enhanced intelligence cooperation, including frequent sharing of intelligence and establishing a regular cooperation between the intelligence services of Ukraine and guarantor states.
Always. follow. the money, people

Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 25 2023 20:47 utc | 72

Norwegian | Jul 25 2023 19:33 utc | 50

"It is not in the interest of the criminal EU. There will be no real peace as long as EU exists. Note that the Russians don't talk to the EU anymore."

You are perfectly correct, as I used "EU" rather too carelessly to design an area. The EU as an institution is crap, and even a "politically "woke" neigbour now sees it as an American-led organisation. (The proposition of appointing a "competition commissioner" from America, sort of shocked rigid the French people I know).

Although there was and probably still is, a latent feeling of European "togetherness" by the commoners (including me), the organisation has been "regime changed" into a proto-dictatorship.
***

karlof1 | Jul 25 2023 20:05 utc | 61

Most of the economic blunders that the US and the EU have made will take years to play out. However, I see the main problem in "our" societies, as that of corruption. Ukraine and the Bidens are only the top surface, nearly all countries are starting (already have) the same groups as their self serving summits. It is not until a thorough cleaning is undertaken, including of the Judiciaries, and the rejection of Corporate personhood (They are immortal people by law), that the situation can be changed.
*

Another time and thread perhaps. Biden and the Biolabs owned by Hunter (followed on by their links to Avrostal, Wuhan and Covid for dessert), and the other reasons that Biden cannot be allowed to fail as too many people might be charged with real crimes.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jul 25 2023 20:52 utc | 73

Russia's military and economic might is sharply increasing, Ukraine's is on a steep decline. The morale of both nations has similar differences, patriotism and optimism in Russia are on full display, while the enormous numbers of those who fled Ukraine and who try to resist serving in its military speaks volumes about its national mood.

The West through fits and starts is starting to produce a bit more ammo and weapons every month. Russia has a growing advantage now, and that advantage should see them through however long it takes to destroy Ukraine's ability to wage war.

To agree to a cease fire would only allow the West to give Ukraine enough supplies to hang on for another year, and in effect eventually basically double the amount of death and suffering the war has already extracted from Russia and Ukraine.

A cease fire would serve the political needs of Western administrations and politicians, while serving the greed and passion for power of the MIC, but it would offer Russia little. While they would of course stockpile ammo and weapons, train troops and fortify positions, a cease fire would be at odds with the unity of purpose and patriotic fervor sweeping the nation. They've been promised victory, and now they can taste it.

For Putin to seriously discuss a cease fire, virtually everything Russia wanted would have to be on the table, from the get-go, and with immediate implementation a given, and the West having no credibility as an honest dealer also being a given. That being said, sure, I think we shouldn't be shocked if Putin and Russia didn't dismiss out of hand any offers by the West to discuss a cease fire. It's Russia's standing position to be willing to talk rather than to fight.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 25 2023 20:58 utc | 74

The BRICS security concerns are really important to those involved .... More important than Ukrainian security concerns.


But we are still living in a parallel universe :).

"BRICS+ multipolar world's refusal to trade in dollars will lead to the collapse of the American empire under the pressure of its huge debt" - Kim Dotcom


The refusal of the multipolar world BRICS + from trading in dollars will lead to the collapse of the American empire under the pressure of its huge debt. No printing press = no empire ” said the German-Finnish entrepreneur.


:) LoL. How many times is this myth going to be told ?

Kim is Clueless and spreads myths to his thousands of followers. The entrepreneur thinks government debt is like his own debt. Has completely fallen for the " crowding out " myth.

Does the US government borrow like a household or business ?


https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/it-turns-out-that-no-one-wants-to


Of course not.


So why DO they issue US treasuries ?


https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=381


Very simple, fiscal deficits place downward pressure on interest rates;bond sales help to maintain interest rates at the FED target rate.

BRICS will not effect this process in any way whatsoever. Whoever believes this and Kim are going to be very disappointed if you think it will. No point getting anybody's hopes up.


BRICS is not even the slightest bit interested in any of the above. What BRICS are very interested in is the desire to get rid of currency exchange risk. As they know fine well Somebody within the net exporter currency area has to end up as the saver of FX financial assets.


Currency exchange risk directly leaves their banks to fend for themselves which tends to cause a drift towards ‘hard currencies’ - primarily the US dollar - that their banks were happy to hold as backing assets on their individual balance sheets for the local currency liabilities they issue against them.

Until the US started sanctioning them that is and just stealing them.

Also, A currency rate move would strengthen the export currency and weaken the import currency - which destroys exports and therefore jobs in the exporting nation. It's no surprise that it is all exporting nations that are coming together.


THIS is all they are interested in and what they are going to try and resolve with the new BRICS option. Nothing more, nothing less.


They don't need a commodity backed currency to fix it. China will hopefully keep them right. They haven't been poisoned by Hayek or Mises schools of thought.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Jul 25 2023 21:00 utc | 75

Posted by: sln2002 | Jul 25 2023 20:47 utc | 71

Impressive post. And kind of a killshot.
After reading that it's obvious: it would be better for everyone, including 'Ukrainians,' if this large, awkward buffer state simply ceased to exist. At some point Russia and Western European nations need to deal directly, so having a super-complicated, super-expensive, fragmented, internally polarizing and confused 'Ukraine' (which means 'borderlands') artificial entity is not worth all the trouble involved. Better to have borders up against each other and deal with it. The sooner Ukraine is no more, the better. It probably won't go down that way though. But if RF can come away with Kiev and Odessa, what's left will be mainly farmland and might actually calm down over time. After such a loss, the West won't return for a few generations. That's something at least...

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 25 2023 21:00 utc | 76

My understanding is that Ukraine didn't just give up its nuclear weapons; they were financially compensated for them, and the warheads were dismantled so the fissile material could be reprocessed to make fuel for nuclear power plants.

Posted by: Observer | Jul 25 2023 21:03 utc | 77

Posted by: Stonebird | Jul 25 2023 20:52 utc | 72

One EU official was once saying on a video that US officials or ambassadors basically elect EU officials (not officially, but they designate the candidates who are selected most of the time). Consequentially you only get officials who take orders from... US.

It will most likely take years as these blunders play out as you said. It will probably witness as average inflation creeping up, real wages falling. EU is shooting itself especially with the blunders with China, and making artificially all imports more expensive through the green agenda, corporate responsibility and other equivalent schemes. Which benefits the US, as it removes EU as viable competition, but also sucks the life out of it.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 25 2023 21:07 utc | 78

sln2002 | Jul 25 2023 20:47 utc | 71

When read coldly, it means permanently underwriting full Ukraine cooperative, military and financial support forever.

Jeeez, they aren't asking for much, are they?

Posted by: Stonebird | Jul 25 2023 21:07 utc | 79

Don't poo-poo US cluster munitions. Here's dead and injured Russians to tell you it works.
Screen grab of video on Chinese social media.

https://i.imgur.com/oeZm2Vp.jpg

Posted by: Surferket | Jul 25 2023 21:10 utc | 80

Let's say Poland gets to annex the western portion of the former Ukraine and Russia takes the east. Doesn't that still amount to a population of rabid Nazis - AND - NATO directly abutting Russia's westernmost borders? How would that be acceptable to Moscow, since all it's really accomplishing is erasing the nominal presence of a country called Ukraine (which is admittedly an important task)?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 19:17 utc | 43

Not going to happen. Lukashenko & Putin released a video yesterday stating they will not allow Poland to annex any of the Ukraine.

Posted by: Mary | Jul 25 2023 21:12 utc | 81

@unimperator | Jul 25 2023 21:07 utc | 77

One EU official was once saying on a video that US officials or ambassadors basically elect EU officials (not officially, but they designate the candidates who are selected most of the time). Consequentially you only get officials who take orders from... US.
This is how Ukraine works after 2014, and it is clear that the EU follows the same pattern, if just slightly more in disguise. Therefore, bot Ukraine and EU as captured entities must be disbanded.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 25 2023 21:14 utc | 82

Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 19:05 utc | 40

i don't know the answer to your question, but just for fun here is an rt news link.. see if it works..

Ukraine’s defense chief vows more attacks on Crimea

here is an article related to your post @ 36 as well..

Ivan Katchanovski Responds to Ian Rons

Posted by: james | Jul 25 2023 21:18 utc | 83

@Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 18:47 utc | 36

I first read Ivan Katchanovski's working paper in late 2021 or maybe early 2022. Confirmed earlier work by Robert Parry in 2015 in Consortium News – it was accepted by a leading journal but then pulled from publication at last minute – Jeffrey Sachs praised the paper and lamented its ‘political exclusion’. Finally published this June in Special Issue of Russian Politics – links below and all papers available to download.

In N. America what stands for ‘Russian Studies’ is basically being anti-Putin – with a very few honourable exceptions – Meersheimer being one, whether one agrees with his analysis or not. Scholarship is not in great shape these days ….

Volume 8 (2023): Issue 2 (Jun 2023): Special Issue: Russia, Ukraine, and the West: Looking to the Future, edited by Nicolai Petro
in Russian Politics

Russian Politics Volume 8 Issue 2: Special Issue: Russia, Ukraine, and the West: Looking to the Future, edited by Nicolai Petro (2023) (brill.com)
Open Access
https://brill.com/view/journals/rupo/8/2/rupo.8.issue-2.xml

The Maidan Massacre Trial and Investigation Revelations: Implications for the Ukraine-Russia War and Relations
Author:
Ivan Katchanovski

The Maidan Massacre Trial and Investigation Revelations: Implications for the Ukraine-Russia War and Relations in: Russian Politics Volume 8 Issue 2 (2023) (brill.com)

https://brill.com/view/journals/rupo/8/2/article-p181_5.xml

Abstract
This study analyzes revelations from the trial and investigation in Ukraine concerning the mass killing that took place in Kyiv on 20 February 2014. This Maidan massacre of protesters and police led to the overthrow of the Yanukovych government and ultimately to the Russian annexation of Crimea, the civil war and Russian military interventions in Donbas, and the Ukraine-Russia and West-Russia conflicts which Russia escalated by illegally invading Ukraine in 2022. The absolute majority of wounded Maidan protesters, nearly 100 prosecution and defense witnesses, synchronized videos, and medical and ballistic examinations by government experts pointed unequivocally to the fact that the Maidan protesters were massacred by snipers located in Maidan-controlled buildings. To date, however, due to the political sensitivity of these findings and cover-up, no one has been convicted for this massacre. The article discusses the implications of these revelations for the Ukraine-Russia war and the future of Russian-Ukrainian relations.

Keywords: Political violence; conflict; Ukraine; Maidan; Euromaidan; Russia; massacre; Ukraine-Russia war; justice

It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets; it is the rule’.(Voltaire)

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 25 2023 21:18 utc | 84

Does anyone else have issues cross-posting RT links at MoA?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 19:05 utc | 40

It’s probably Typepad blocking it automatically… read the doc at the link below to find out what the EU has sent to several large social media, blogging, search sites:

…must make sure that i) any link to the Internet sites of RT and Sputnik and ii) any
content of RT and Sputnik, including short textual descriptions, visual elements and links to the
corresponding websites do not appear in the search results delivered to users located in the EU.

https://lumendatabase.org/notices/26927483

Posted by: Zet | Jul 25 2023 21:19 utc | 85

@ Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 19:05 utc | 40

regarding your question of rt auto-banned at moa - it appears so.. yes..

Posted by: james | Jul 25 2023 21:19 utc | 86

The loss of Ukraine, will obliterate decades of deliberate Western elites project to destroy Russia and the the eventual collapse of many ex-Soviet states. Might take some time, but will happen eventually. Ukraine was the preferred candidate this madness due to her uniqueness in terms linguistics and direct cultural connection with Russian. One could argue they're the same people.

The powers that be invested heavily in cultivating the radicals over there to the point where Ukrainians themselves didn't know who they're anymore other than them NOT being Russian - an absurd notion given their shared history. In fact, the national ethos of Ukraine is "NOT Russian", period! Kinda like how anti-government Iranians living in US/Europe define themselves as "Persians" or Americans defining themselves first as NOT Italian, Scottish, Irish etc. Nobody really knows what Ukraine is anymore other than hatred for anything Russian.

Funny enough, the ONLY ideology powerful enough to screw up an entire population to that level of hatred is Nazism. Western elites are happy with Nazism as long as it leads to the defeat of Russia. Like they supported radical Muslim groups across the North Africa/Middle East during the fake Arab spring. For them, the end justifies the means!

Not sure what the future holds for Ukraine but the old Ukraine as we know it from post Soviet collapse is no more.

Posted by: Zico | Jul 25 2023 21:22 utc | 87

Mary @ 80
The Ukronazis aren't great fans of the Poles, either; their hero Bandera and the OUN-B slaughtered tens of thousands of them, so it's ironic that the Poles are hell-bent on supporting Z and his Azov handlers. But I suppose the Katyn massacre still rankles, and despite that being carried out by order of (a partially Ukrainian) USSR politburo, they only blame the Russians.

With regards to Russian and Belarus not "allowing" Poland to annex West Ukraine, that's quite different to Poland receiving a chunk off the rump state in coordination with Belarus and Russia once hostilities have finally ended.

I imagine Russia and Belarus would love Poland having to deal with any rabid Ukrainian ethnonationalists left alive after the SMO.

Posted by: Observer | Jul 25 2023 21:24 utc | 88

@ Don Firineach | Jul 25 2023 21:18 utc | 82

thanks for the links to the brill publication of Ivan Katchanovski

Posted by: james | Jul 25 2023 21:24 utc | 89

The Daily Telegraph on Putin expanding the criteria for being conscripted – is this even true? I have disguised the commentators on the off chance that one or two are genuine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/24/vladimir-putin-raises-age-limit-to-boost-russian-troops/

Posted by: marcjf | Jul 25 2023 18:48 utc | 37
--------------------------------------------------
Pavlov would be pleased. He was a Russian, too!

wsj gets responses along the same lines of thought. Contrary opinions are banned for not conforming to 'community guidelines.' I have been banned for years. Same with WaPo. I get banned for wishing everyone 'a nice day!'

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 25 2023 21:26 utc | 90

Posted by: Mary | Jul 25 2023 21:12 utc | 80

I was really just responding to the scenario posited by Posted by: marcjf | Jul 25 2023 19:11 utc | 41.

Never really thought Poland would actually annex any of Ukraine - at least not as a result of this war.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 21:38 utc | 91

Thanks for the RT related replies, all. I guess given that b is in Germany, somehow this blog platform has managed to block links to RT (and at the same time summarily disappear any comments containing them).

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 25 2023 21:39 utc | 92

India might be a good choice to police a cease-fire line 6 to 8 months from now, before the Spring mud season, when the front may well have stabilized some distance to the west and north of where it is now. By then, the F-16’s and other advanced American weaponry will likely have proven ineffective, and the American administration might be willing to negotiate. (If F-15EX’s were available in quantity however, perhaps flown by American volunteers like the Flying Tigers before WW2, they might make a difference. Military Watch rates them comparable to anything Russia has now.)

India is regarded as a more-or-less neutral by both sides, and has a large enough army, accustomed to Himalayan cold, to deploy a substantial peace-keeping force. It is also a nuclear power, not relevant for peacekeeping, but giving it sufficient stature as a great power, not to be trifled with.

Posted by: Seward | Jul 25 2023 21:40 utc | 93

Posted by: warxism | Jul 25 2023 20:47 utc | 70

Quite true, but ignorant and lazy journalists, politicians and even military types read the raw GDP numbers and say things like Russia has a smaller GDP than the UK so easy to beat etc.

There are many financial indicators in general use, but most of them are inadequate. Trading Economics has an easily accessible list, but while pretty good for identifying trends has few indicators of actual output.

I look at total steel production as a sort of quasi measure of manufacturing. China obviously is 9 times more productive than its nearest rival ie the EU in total while the US and Russia rank 5 and 6 respectively.

In terms of trends in manufacturing the Purchasing Index (PMI) tells a terrible tale for Germany. Unless Germany pulls a rabbit from its hat, this sector of its economy is in freefall. The Czech is not far behind and the rest of Europe is on the same path. I guess we are coming to the Summer holidays and the picture may be clearer in September, but it certainly is looking ominous.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 25 2023 21:40 utc | 94

My sense is that Ukraine may cease to exist as a functioning independent State. Eastern portion becomes annexed into Russia, and western becomes a rump state buffer zone under a puppet Russian government.

Posted by: [email protected] | Jul 25 2023 21:43 utc | 95

The ongoing debacle in Ukraine is arguably the single greatest intelligence failure in American history—which is, indeed, a very high bar to pass. On so many levels, the spooks—or at least the politically connected ones—misunderstood the realities of the situation: They were wrong about Russia being militarily weak; wrong about NATO being militarily strong; wrong about Russia being unable to withstand economic sanctions; wrong about Russia’s military industrial capacity being sufficient to support the war effort; wrong about the level of international support that would go Russia’s way; wrong about unity within NATO’s sphere; wrong about the negative economic impact that the war would have on Europe and so on. Will any of the parties responsible for all these errors in judgement pay a price, especially in the US? If recent history is a guide, the answer must be “no.” In Europe some leaders will suffer, but they were never more than the US’s vassals.

Posted by: Rob | Jul 25 2023 21:47 utc | 96

Minor point:

An answer to the question posed by b may be impossible to answer ....

.... because ...

... an entity formely known as 'Ukraine' may no longer exist in the near future.

Stretching the limits is one of the skills of scenario planning - just saying!

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 25 2023 21:48 utc | 97

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 25 2023 21:07 utc | 77

As noted above, manufacturing in Europe is declining. Services eg financial or tourism will not be able to provide adequate income or jobs to compensate - some nations may do OK but not all. Without Germany to finance the smaller EU nations, the benefits of membership will disappear.

Imagine the irony if the Baltics were forced to go cap in hand to Russia or China for economic support. I would love to be a fly on the wall when the Lithuanian ambassador in China begs for assistance.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 25 2023 21:53 utc | 98

@watcher #92

Euro Area Manufacturing PMI [note that less than 50 is on the way down ...

The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 42.7 in July of 2023 from 43.4 in the previous month, the lowest in three years, missing market expectations of 43.5 to point to one full year of consecutive contractions in the currency bloc’s manufacturing sector as higher borrowing costs from the ECB continued to bite. The decline in new orders sank at one of the fastest paces since 2009, widening the gap to the drop in output and signaling more decreases in future production, as backlogs of work continued to be cleared to sustain current operating levels. The lower activity also forced factories to adjust production requirements. In the meantime, falling demand for inputs, improved supply, and lower raw material prices drove input costs to decline the most since 2009, translating to lower prices charged by factories. source: Markit Economics

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/manufacturing-pmi

chart in link tells the tale ....

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 25 2023 21:57 utc | 99

RT test:
https://www.rt.com/news/580273-xi-china-prepare-war/

Posted by: Scorpion | Jul 25 2023 21:57 utc | 100

next page »

The comments to this entry are closed.